ALEX PLANTE, WAITING FIVE YEARS AND SWEEPING STATEMENTS

This is Alex Plante. The former Oiler defenseman got a mention in a Cult of Hockey article today, as David Staples profiled a Hockey News story about the Oilers drafting over the last decade. This blog got some mention in the article, and I thank David for the shout out. There are a few things that the HN (and by extension, David) either glossed over or didn’t mention at all in the piece.

Although there’s nothing I find outrageous about the article, I felt it was important to add a few additional pieces.

INJURY

When we discuss a prospect class or drafting period, it’s important to include injury issues. I understand all teams deal with this problem, but there is a randomness to it that is (of course) outside the control of any team or manager. If we discuss players and their lack of success, I’d encourage you to consider injury issues. Bruce McCurdy of the Cult of Hockey wrote an excellent item on Plante here, and concluded the impact on his career at that time was significant.

CONTEXT

One of the things that can happen when we evaluate prospects is that we fail to place things in context. Let’s take a portion of David’s article:

2012: Seven question marks-In a redraft Nail Yakupov would likely go behind Alex Galchenyuk and almost certainly behind Jacob Trouba, maybe others as well. Yak has shown some skill and flash, but remains a question mark. How much of that is due to his handling in the NHL is an open issue. Mitch Moroz and Jujhair Khaira are big, physical players who show promise. If one or both make it to the NHL in the next few years, MacGregor’s rep will rise, at least if all his first rounders pan out, too.

It’s a very difficult thing, evaluating players so soon after their draft day. Football has it made, they’re all college kids and you can plug and play them without worry. Nail Yakupov was the consensus number one overall selection at the time of the draft, and (as David mentioned) his handling in the NHL is an issue. I would encourage you not to make a decision on Yakupov until year 5, and to remember he was in fact the consensus number one overall selection.

BACK TO THE EVALUATION

  • 2% turn into elite players
  • 4% turn into impact players
  • 15% turn into average NHL players
  • 24% turn into fringe NHL players (less than 200 games)
  • 55% never play an NHL game

This is the long ago number set I used in the article David linked to, and it seems about right so let’s run with it. The 2% portion (elite players) I would think gets covered by Hall at some point in time, and he’s definitely (imo) part of the 4% now. Average NHL players? Can we call Eberle and Nuge average NHL players? Let’s assume we can. For the fringe player list, I’d count Paajarvi, Lander, Marincin, Klefbom and let’s throw Nail Yakupov in there for fun. Is that fair? So, with that as the backdrop, and MacGregor having drafted 49 players (WHY couldn’t they have drafted 1 more?) we get:

  • 0 elite players
  • 2% impact players (Hall)
  • 4% average NHL players (Nuge, Eberle)
  • 10% fringe players (Nail, Paajarvi, Lander, Marincin, Klefbom)

Now, you can make two arguments:

  1. MBS was drafting first overall
  2. The numbers (so far) don’t approach the average levels as listed

I agree that three #1 overall selections are going to skew this number, but the draft picks are made based on standing. I’m not sure we can reasonably deduct points, especially if the players deliver. As for the numbers not approaching average, this goes back to waiting 5 years.

Bottom line: if you’re evaluating the 2007 draft and the Prendergast era, fill your hat and I only ask that you also consider injury to Plante and Doug Lynch and Pouliot and down the line. If you’re evaluating Stu MacGregor, I’d encourage you to wait 5 years after the draft day before making sweeping statements.

Many of you didn’t consider Martin Marincin to be much at all short months ago, and that’s a fact.

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68 Responses to "ALEX PLANTE, WAITING FIVE YEARS AND SWEEPING STATEMENTS"

  1. Woodguy says:

    Hall has been elite for 2 years.

  2. Woodguy says:

    Eberle was an all-star and puts up points in the top 45 or so in the NHL.

    He’s impact.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Hall has been elite for 2 years.

    I was being more than fair, but agree.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Eberle was an all-star and puts up points in the top 45 or so in the NHL.

    He’s impact.

    I was being more than fair, but agree.

  5. Manitoba Oilers says:

    Wow if hall isn’t elite I don’t know what is

  6. justDOit says:

    Lowetide: I was being more than fair, but agree.

    I think the middle ground in these player assessments is somewhere between your ‘fairness’, and the color guy for any American NHL team (‘this Oiler roster is packed with talent…’).

  7. Yak2 says:

    Yeah I don’t get why you put Hall in “Impact” when the numbers he’s put up scream “ELITE”

  8. sliderule says:

    I don’t think to many can criticize the first rounders in the Stu era.

    It’s the later round picks that haven’t worked out that makes you question.

    Even if you ignore the nepotism in the picks either with staff ,former oilers and oil king players there is no success.

    Other than Petry a Kevin pick they have ignored the USHL.

    When you hear oil change comments by Stu that a third or fourth rounder really doesn’t matter they don’t understand probability.

    All through this period their picks have been near the top of each round which increases the chance of success.

    The teams that have risen from the doldrums like Avs ,Wild Jackets Kings and Ducks have all drafted well in rounds after the first pick.This has given them bottom six and even top six players that they don’t have to overpay in free agency..

    Mact has commented that they have to do better in later rounds so he realizes this.They now have a very large amateur staff and I heard they had the most scouts at under 18.

    Time will tell but if they don’t improve with later round drafts they are pretty much screwed.

  9. RexLibris says:

    Excellent.

    LT, one thing that has always endeared me to your perspective is your unfailing resolve to protect the kids drafted. Not protect in a sense of turn a blind eye and rah-rah them because they wear Oiler colours, but protect them because they are kids. Maybe not legally, but for all intents and purposes they are kids drafted into a professional sports league before many of them have a clue about life, liquor or women.

    Wait five years. You wouldn’t want others to have judged you at 18 or 19, would you?

    Also, I think this article could use a proviso about development. and the onus for that falling on the organization. Picking a top-shelf prospect and then ruining them because the organization couldn’t find it’s arse with both hands development-wise ought not necessarily reflect on the scouting staff or the prospect but on an idiot GM.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    has anyone done a study on the number of players lost to injury… I mean young careers significantly derailed.

    it would be interesting to see if there was an average rate of drafted players lost (across the league).

  11. Ice Sage says:

    Habs showing that skill with heart gets ‘er done. ‘Size’ is great but sometimes lumberingly slow.

  12. OilClog says:

    I can’t really fault anyone under the guidance of Tambi, I would say Eberle is almost damn Elite. Hall is Elite, Nuge I honestly think if Dallas used him properly.. IE all Powerplay no penalty kill.. Or 28 minutes a night he’d be looking much more Elite right now.

    I’m really going to truly base the Bastard on the next few MacT drafts.

  13. Rondo says:

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2008-NHL-Mock-Draft/

    Eberle pick #22

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/16676-The-Hockey-News-2008-Mock-Draft.html

    Eberle pick #13

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/10421/hockeys_future_staff_mock_draft2008/

    Eberle pick #21

    Picking Eberle at #22 was not a genius pick . Anyone here could of made the 1st round pick Oilers have made

  14. regwald says:

    So, the fact that Galchenyuk had a serious knee injury and missed significant development time with concerns of long term affects in junior and it doesn’t get discussed or brought up as to why he was available at #3 and bypassed by Columbus and Edmonton ? That is part of the reality of the discussion.

    He only played 65 games this season. Injuries are a story. Always have been, always will be.

  15. Zangetsu says:

    What’s wrong with you recently LT?
    Hall is elite and it isn’t even close.
    Eberle is a top 30 scorer. I don’t know where the elite cutoff is, but he is borderline elite.
    Nuge is impact and it isn’t close.
    Marincin is hard to spot, but he is probably at least average. I’ll call yak average as well.
    The rest are probably fine.

    You undervaluing these players really muddies the water when discussing the drafting.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Zangetsu:
    What’s wrong with you recently LT?
    Hall is elite and it isn’t even close.
    Eberle is a top 30 scorer. I don’t know where the elite cutoff is, but he is borderline elite.
    Nuge is impact and it isn’t close.
    Marincin is hard to spot, but he is probably at least average. I’ll call yak average as well.
    The rest are probably fine.

    You undervaluing these players really muddies the water when discussing the drafting.

    I’ve always believed in having a clearly established level of ability. That’s three years (patent: Bill James) and one I agree with, always have. I also think Nuge is a bit of a moving target, and we don’t have enough of an iceberg on Marincin to sink the Minnow, let alone the Titanic.

  17. G Money says:

    Ice Sage:
    Habs showing that skill with heart gets ‘er done.‘Size’ is great but sometimes lumberingly slow.

    With all due respect to the Habs (who have played with skill and heart), it also seems clear that Chara has lost both a step and some resilience. He’s still a freak, but a 37-year-old one, and at some point even the freakiest lose the battle with Father Time.

  18. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: it was less clear than you suggest:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20080619214544/http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?fid=11474

    If you want a great laugh, check out who Colten Teubert’s (listed #13) NHL comparable was. I’m going to have to go ahead and say now that he fell extremenificantly short of that comparable.

  19. G Money says:

    Off-topic: this morning on my way to work, I saw the Oil Kings bus heading west on Bow Trail here in Calgary.

    Seemed like a weird place for it to be – does the fastest route to Londontario from Edmonton go through Cowtown?

    Hopefully that was just their equipment and support. Would hope the poor lads at least get to fly to London!

  20. Zangetsu says:

    Racki,

    My favourite eberle comparable was steve nash on ice. I can’t find the report today, but it was awesome to read on draft day.
    Lowetide,

    I don’t think we can try to evaluate the drafting today and wait for three years established ability. BTW I believe for hockey we should look at 3 years starting in year 3, as players are so much younger than the other leagues.

  21. Racki says:

    G Money:
    Off-topic: this morning on my way to work, I saw the Oil Kings bus heading west on Bow Trail here in Calgary.

    Seemed like a weird place for it to be – does the fastest route to Londontario from Edmonton go through Cowtown?

    Hopefully that was just their equipment and support.Would hope the poor lads at least get to fly to London!

    Where’s that guy with the “you’re going the wrong way!” “how does he know which way we’re going?” P.T.a.A. quote now?

  22. russ99 says:

    Heck yeah. Bruins out.

    Kings could join them later on tonight.

    Can we now stop trying to copy these teams??

  23. One-Timer says:

    Habs! Incredible.
    This kills me in the hockey pool, but there’s nothing like a good old-fashioned giant-slaying.

  24. One-Timer says:

    russ99,

    For sure, the Oilers eventually COULD play something like MTL.
    The Habs have found balance! (LT, give us a sneak peek of that picture…?)

  25. godot10 says:

    The fast little puck possession team beats the big bad bullies.

    An over-the-hill midget 4th centre with a small agitator and a run-of-the-mill 4th liner own the supposed best big bad bully of a 4th line of the Bruins.

    Anaheim isn’t exactly small, but we need them to stick a dagger into Boston-West tonight.

  26. spoiler says:

    russ99: Heck yeah. Bruins out.
    Kings could join them later on tonight.
    Can we now stop trying to copy these teams??

    I don’t know what you are talking about. I have it on good authority that the Bruins have small, skilled players throughout their line up.

    Yes, I am waaay behind on my reading.

  27. Andy P says:

    RexLibris: Picking a top-shelf prospect and then ruining them because the organization couldn’t find it’s arse with both hands development-wise ought not necessarily reflect on the scouting staff or the prospect but on an idiot GM.

    I’d respectfully suggest that it totally ought to reflect 100% on the coaching staff. That would be the combination of HC and assistants. They are collectively the ones that spend the most time on the ice with the prospects, figure out the lines, and decide on playing time.

  28. godot10 says:

    I don’t understand the criticism of MacGregor’s 2nd round picks.

    1) Lander is tracking to be who we thought he would be. A certain 4th line centre still with some 3rd line possibility.

    2) Marincin is looking to be a home run. Pitlick is underachieving but still is tracking to be a 4th line energy grinder if he can stay healthy. Hamilton looks to be a miss.

    3) Musil is still fully on track. He is a binary prospect, but he has a relatively seemless transition to the AHL as a rookie pro.

    4) Moroz is looking more like Bickell every day, which is what we were hoping he would be.

    1 hit, 3 tracking to the expected target, 1 underachieving, and 1 miss.

  29. spoiler says:

    I would like to point out that using a single playoff series or even playoff season as justification for how to, OR how not to, build a winning team makes us as stupid as the narrative-pushing pundits on TV.

  30. One-Timer says:

    spoiler,

    It’s not as stupid as thinking that the only way forward is to draft the next Lucic.

    And a seven-game head to head series is a pretty decent indication of how well teams are functioning, even with some pretty bad stretches of puck luck for the Bruins.

  31. spoiler says:

    G Money: Off-topic: this morning on my way to work, I saw the Oil Kings bus heading west on Bow Trail here in Calgary.

    That makes no sense. Drop the team off at the Greyhound station and then head to Banff for the long weekend?

  32. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Why does LT hate Taylor Hall?

  33. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    spoiler: That makes no sense.Drop the team off at the Greyhound station and then head to Banff for the long weekend?

    If they went commercial, Westjet flies direct from Calgary to London. Coaches might have preferred a bus trip together over 2 flights.

  34. sliderule says:

    godot10,

    Well we have two oiler players drafted after first round who played more than 20 games in2013-14

    The lightning and ducks have 6 each .The Wild Jackets Kings and Avs have 5 each.

    All those teams made playoffs.

    The Stars had 4 and they also made playoffs.

    It’s time for oiler fanboys to realize that having the number one overall doesn’t make your amateur draft team smart or even average.

  35. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    I don’t understand the criticism of MacGregor’s 2nd round picks.

    1) Lander is tracking to be who we thought he would be.A certain 4th line centre still with some 3rd line possibility.

    2) Marincin is looking to be a home run.Pitlick is underachieving but still is tracking to be a 4th line energy grinder if he can stay healthy.Hamilton looks to be a miss.

    3) Musil is still fully on track.He is a binary prospect, but he has a relatively seemless transition to the AHL as a rookie pro.

    4) Moroz is looking more like Bickell every day, which is what we were hoping he would be.

    1 hit, 3 tracking to the expected target, 1 underachieving, and 1 miss.

    Sure, but when you look at it from the NHL view, which HN and David are doing, you get results that look poor. If people wait 5 years, then it’s a much better view.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki: If you want a great laugh, check out who Colten Teubert’s (listed #13) NHL comparable was. I’m going to have to go ahead and say now that he fell extremenificantly short of that comparable.

    Everyone gets compared to Weber. WIth Teubert it was kind of a theme:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHkn-jjHEog

    The thing about Teubert to note is that he was very highly regarded.

    Buyer beware.

  37. Racki says:

    Do some of you guys really think that the Habs are that clearly better of a team than the Bruins? I say this as a guy who considers the Habs my 2nd fave team (by a fair margin, mind you, but they’re my go to team come playoff time since the Oilers don’t know what playoffs are anymore). They won the series, but it went 7 games and the B’s easily could have won that too.

    The NHL is a game of inches nowadays. The Bruins are a great team. The biggest misconception hockey fans seem to have is that if a team bows out of the playoffs early it’s because they’re a bad team, or the players on the team aren’t good playoff performers, or what have you. The NHL playoffs are damn hard. People often say that the NHL playoffs is the hardest of all the major sports for a reason.

    I’m no Crosby fan, but there’s people suggesting even he isn’t all that good of a playoff guy, or the Pens need to blow it up (come on, really??!!?) because things didn’t work out. Bylsma’s job is on the line, as apparently is Hitchcock’s. This all is crazy to me. These teams have “problems” I wish the Oilers had!

    Here the Oilers are, not firing their coach because they’re going to set some sort of record for different coaches in a single decade and other teams who have been dominant regular season teams and playoff contending teams should dump theirs?

  38. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Everyone gets compared to Weber. WIth Teubert it was kind of a theme:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHkn-jjHEog

    The thing about Teubert to note is that he was very highly regarded.

    Buyer beware.

    This is a sad reality that we really shouldn’t have too high hopes for any of the draftees we select.. outside of maybe the slam dunk top picks. I think Nurse will be quite good, but when you look back at this sort of thing, you can’t help but wonder just a little bit… (I know lots of people are already, but to me that is way premature, however).

    And this is also part of the reason I adamantly say that the Oilers need some real NHL d-men in here finally and need to stop giving jobs to these young kids until they’re good and ready (or at least shelter them with some pros)

  39. spoiler says:

    One-Timer: It’s not as stupid as thinking that the only way forward is to draft the next Lucic.

    Is there someone thinking this?

    And a seven-game head to head series is a pretty decent indication of how well teams are functioning, even with some pretty bad stretches of puck luck for the Bruins.

    Define pretty decent. And you’re forgetting too that the Habs went 31% on the powerplay. Nor do we know anything about either team’s injuries.

    If they played each other a 1000 seven game series, what would the outcome be?

    I don’t know, but I certainly don’t think that it is clear-cut the Habs would win at even say a 60-40 ratio, if at all.

  40. spoiler says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴: If they went commercial, Westjet flies direct from Calgary to London. Coaches might have preferred a bus trip together over 2 flights.

    So why would the bus be heading west down the Bow Trail?

  41. Racki says:

    G Money:
    Off-topic: this morning on my way to work, I saw the Oil Kings bus heading west on Bow Trail here in Calgary.

    Seemed like a weird place for it to be – does the fastest route to Londontario from Edmonton go through Cowtown?

    Hopefully that was just their equipment and support.Would hope the poor lads at least get to fly to London!

    spoiler: So why would the bus be heading west down the Bow Trail?

    What are you guys, their supervisor? lol

    I’m sure they’re going to make it to London on time, don’t worry… :P

  42. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    spoiler: So why would the bus be heading west down the Bow Trail?

    Joy ride?

    (Jones reported the team flew out of Edmonton 10:35 this morning)

  43. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Racki:
    What are you guys, their supervisor? lol

    I’m sure they’re going to make it to London on time, don’t worry…

    Come take a look Abner.

  44. sliderule says:

    Racki,

    Teubert never showed any Offense in junior and it never developed in pro.

    Nurse has shown Offense but like Teubert seems to need more hockey sense.

    Teubert and Nurse both skate well but Teuberts brain cramps forced the oilers to dump him.

    It’s been said you can teach defense but not Offense so I have high hopes for Nurse.

  45. Gordies Elbow says:

    Saw this last night, and thought of this blog. Posted on HFBoards by victor:


    Food for thought:

    S. Monahan, 48 games into his career: 15g – 8a – 23pts, -10
    N. Yakupov, 48 games into his career: 17g – 14a – 31pts, -4

    After the same number of games in their careers:
    N. Yakupov: 75gp – 21g – 19a – 40pts -20
    S. Monahan: 75gp – 22g – 12a – 34pts -20

    I heard terms like Monahan plays a “200 foot game.” when clearly his stats do not show it. I also heard that the problem is that players in Edmonton were gifted positions, although from the stats, Yakupov’s minutes were being cut while Monahan’s were the same.

    Yakupov is going through the same thing that Sven Beartschi is, and that players like Matt Duchene have recently, and even HoF players have. Learning to play beneath the puck.

    Young players need time to develop, and for offensive players, a large portion of that time is dedicated to learning to play below the puck. I’ve watched a great deal of hockey, and can tell you that some players get it quickly, some take longer, some have to learn it from another team, and some never get it.

    I wouldn’t bet against either of these players getting it with their current teams, and both are excellent prospects, learning their trade in a difficult league.

    Similar results from high draft picks. Why does one players reputation suffer, while the others does not?

    If Monahan performed the same way here, would he get the same treatment from the coach? Media?

  46. Ryan says:

    Well, I’ve been banging on the the WTF has SMB drafted out of the first round drum for awhile now, haven’t I? :)

    If SMB took Tyler Cuma instead of Jordan Eblere in 2008, would he have NHL employment? I ask this because a) I have had a few glasses of red wine b) he engendered an enormous amount of good will by grabbing Eberle where he did.

    Honestly, if you eliminate the #1 ov’s and Eberle from MBS’s draft record, there’s not much left (except Marincin).

    What’s funny is that posters like GCW_rocks and Sliderule (who were once mainstream) are now outliers since they question SMB’s record.

    I’m fine to give SMB his five years, but when you factor in the high round picks (from draft position), the early returns are not looking good.

  47. VanOil says:

    If this is the last game of NHL hockey for Teemu Selänne I am glad I got to see him play. He is a legend of the game. It is hard to imagine a rookie getting half his rookie goal record or half his longevity and class.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2008-NHL-Mock-Draft/

    Eberle pick #22

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/16676-The-Hockey-News-2008-Mock-Draft.html

    Eberle pick #13

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/10421/hockeys_future_staff_mock_draft2008/

    Eberle pick #21

    Picking Eberle at #22 was not a genius pick .Anyone here could of made the 1st round pick Oilers have made

    That’s simply not true.

    I remember Nemisz getting a lot of play.

    6’3″ 190lbs RH C scoring a point/gm in the OHL.

    Oilers and their love of large men could have easily taken him at there.

    Eberle had 75pts in 70gms

    Nemisz had 67pts in 68gms.

    Thank Gord the Oilers thought they were set at center with Gagner and Cogliano rising!

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Thank Gord the Oilers thought they were set at center with Gagner and Cogliano rising!

    there’s a question for anyone in particular…

    Eberle is listed as a C in all these draft lists and is still referred to as a C by NHL IIRC.

    I wonder if the Oilers ever considered Eberle a C?

  50. Woodguy says:

    Here’s LT’s thread for the Eberle pick: http://lowetide.ca/blog/2008/06/oilers-pick-at-22-jordan-eberle-2.html

    Note the rankings on Eberle:

    TSN: 29
    CSB: 33NA
    ISS: 30
    RLR: 22
    McK: 33
    THN: 22

  51. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: there’s a question for anyone in particular…

    Eberle is listed as a C in all these draft lists and is still referred to as a C by NHL IIRC.

    I wonder if the Oilers ever considered Eberle a C?

    Its talked about in that thread that he played RW in Regina.

    Been listed as a C forever, hasn’t played it in 5-6 years.

  52. One-Timer says:

    spoiler: Is there someone thinking this?

    Define pretty decent.And you’re forgetting too that the Habs went 31% on the powerplay.Nor do we know anything about either team’s injuries.

    If they played each other a 1000 seven game series, what would the outcome be?

    I don’t know, but I certainly don’t think that it is clear-cut the Habs would win at even say a 60-40 ratio, if at all.

    I’m completely in agreement – was thinking that with the luck evened out, BOS would win 9 times out of 15 against the Habs (60%, as you say). But in my mind that’s being pretty competitive, since they’re playing against a favourite for the finals. If the present-day Oilers were competitive against a recent cup champion, we’d all be going bonkers.

    Russ99′s point was that you can build a contending team not just made up of bonecrushers. Balance. Weise, Weaver, Desharnais, Bournival – a bunch of not-so-big depth guys buying in and playing out of their minds… that can take you far.

    I wanna see that Balance picture, dammit!

  53. Bling says:

    Also:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=452180

    Penguins are looking at making changes. The PENGUINS.

  54. One-Timer says:

    Bling:
    Also:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=452180

    Penguins are looking at making changes. The PENGUINS.

    Cue the wacky Malkin trade proposals.

    I’ll give it a crack: Malkin & Niskanen for Gags, Yak, the 3rd & Klef. Everybody’s happy!

    Maybe someone can work out a 3-way deal with Weber too…

  55. Big Dan says:

    Everyone has written off David Musil. I read all this belly aching about him on this blog (some people just like to complain and that’s fine, this is a great forum for that).

    I know hindsight is 20-20 about Saad/ Gibson/etc. but at the time of the draft, most of the people on this same blog were lauding the pick. He was expected to go in the first round and we were all doing a happy dance.

    David Musil is slow, yes. But he’s not Alex Plante or Colten Teubert slow. Musil’s game is not about speed= he’s a Rob Scuderi-type.

    He’s in only his 2nd year in the AHL and he’s already the Crash Davis veteran-type that all shiny toys like Darnell Nurse are paired with by Todd Nelson. I consider Nelson an apt judge of talent.

    Just because young kids like Marincin, Klefbom, Nurse, and Simpson (maybe even Gernat next year) have caught the glint of our eye does not mean Musil is a failure. Perhaps he won’t make it here in Edmonton as he was passed on the depth chart by other strong draft picks. But I think he will at the very least have a short Scott Ferguson-like career somewhere in the NHL.

    Will he be a star? No, but there’s a ton of no-name steady 3rd pairing types that prove useful. Like at Mike Weaver in Montreal.

    I think Stu MacGregor is a great scouting director who had his hands tied by Tambo’s search for COke machines, as Lowetide said. Also, there was an over-emphasis on defense. Now, we have no goaltending prospects (unless Broissoit can bounce back) and no forward prospects with much offense to their game.

    Last year, it seemed to me that MacT took the reins off and said “Stu, pick whoever you like. I’m going to give you as many picks as I can.” I like that.

    On another topic, I wonder if Malkin would be dealt to a team like Florida or Columbus. He’d put bums in the seats and they both have young, affordable talent they could dish off to Pittsburgh. Cap room would give the Pens options because Crosby will always be a FA draw for wingers.

    The team is too top heavy and needs depth. I laugh when I see Phoenix missing the playoffs because they couldn’t score= they chose Erat over Hemsky at the deadline. The Pens also passed on Hemsky then wonder why Crosby can’t make magic with Lee Stempniak and Chris Gibbons. They should snap Hemmer up in the summer.

    I also wonder if Pittsburgh would now entertain on Oil offer of Letang for Yakupov, Ference, Musil? It’s a gamble because of Letang’s stroke but he seemed to get back to his previous level in the New York series. They chose to sign him last year rather than trade him at the draft, but they may go in a different direction now.

  56. godot10 says:

    Big Dan:
    Everyone has written off David Musil.I read all this belly aching about him on this blog (some people just like to complain and that’s fine, this is a great forum for that).

    I know hindsight is 20-20 about Saad/ Gibson/etc. but at the time of the draft, most of the people on this same blog were lauding the pick.He was expected to go in the first round and we were all doing a happy dance.

    David Musil is slow, yes.But he’s not Alex Plante or Colten Teubert slow.Musil’s game is not about speed= he’s a Rob Scuderi-type.

    He’s in only his 2nd year in the AHL and he’s already the Crash Davis veteran-type that all shiny toys like Darnell Nurse are paired with by Todd Nelson.I consider Nelson an apt judge of talent.

    Musil just completed his first year in the AHL, not second.

    He played with everyone, and it pretty much did not impact his performance. Grebeshkov, Klefbom, Gernat, Osterle, Nurse.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Its talked about in that thread that he played RW in Regina.

    Been listed as a C forever, hasn’t played it in 5-6 years.

    I should have clarified, I meant in his draft year.

    Sounds like people here were well aware he was on the wing, so I’m guessing the Oil knew about it.

  58. Lowetide says:

    Overall, I’m encouraged by the discussion here. I think it’s a tough issue, patience. But they’re all kids and there’s so much luck involved the mind boggles.

  59. sliderule says:

    Oh LT you are such the optimist.

    Luck is what Stu and oilers would like you to think it is.

  60. wintoon says:

    I have not seen Musil play very much but he definitely has some tools. He does not have the cache of some of the Oilers other D prospects but he is sound defensively. Is there a possibility that he is the Oilers version of Robin Regehr?

    If Musil were to become Regehr, I for one, would be thrilled. I well remember how he made Hemsky pay for coming down his wing time after time. Regehr was never flashy but he certainly was effective. Musil may even have a touch of Gator in him. If so, that would certainly be a welcome addition to the Oilers back end and it would change the optics on that draft choice substantially.

  61. Lloyd B. says:

    Frank Musil never won a foot race in his life but was a very good defenseman in the NHL. Paul Coffey got to run at will due to being paired with Huddy. Huddy didn’t win many foot races either. Its not all about being a speed demon. Lets give Musil the younger a bit of rope. We all talk about giving the kids enough time to develop properly. Now we’re writing them off after one year of AHL hockey because of shiny new toys. Sheesh.

    I also agree with the comment above about Stu being handcuffed by the GM looking to build a team a certain way and to select those types of players. It now appears he has different instructions to build a team the way this GM thinks it should be built. I only hope that this GMs thoughts on building a team have better results than the last guys.

  62. j says:

    Couple of thoughts:
    Re size versus skill – the suggestion that the Oil emulate the bigger teams in the West isn’t because that is what it takes to win a Cup, it is because that is what is currently takes to get through the West. There is no denying that the West plays much bigger and most successful teams in the West (exception may be the Hawks) use their size effectively throughout the year. The Habs would not beat St Louis and Anaheim/LA in back to back series. And I would argue that the size in the West is also coupled with great skill. There aren’t many Kopitar’s, Getzlaf’s, Backes, or Benn’s in the East.
    Re draft and the suggestion that the first overall picks really shouldn’t count. I am OK with this as long as all other first round draft picks are eliminated/weighted accordingly. Success at the draft is so heavily weighted to first round picks that any handicapping for first overall has to be applied (to some degree) to the rest of the first round.

  63. shawnmullin says:

    The other question to ask yourself about the Plante and Nash picks… who else was drafted around them?

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

    After Plante was picked in the following 16 picks there were two legit “hits” among the remaining picks with Max Pacioretty and David Perron. So you can criticize the pick if you want but only two scouting staffs got it “right” in the second half of that draft. That and the first 11-12 picks of the second round offered absolutely nothing of substance either.

    It’s easy to point out failures but do it in context. Only Pacioretty and Perron would have been hits from that spot and both fell well further than Edmonton’s pick.

  64. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    With so many mistakes by the Oilers and also rated one of the worst sports organization in North American sports. Picking Eberle at #22 was an aberration. The exception not the rule.

  65. Big Dan says:

    godot10: Musil just completed his first year in the AHL, not second.He played with everyone, and it pretty much did not impact his performance. Grebeshkov, Klefbom, Gernat, Osterle, Nurse.

    Even better!

  66. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Piling in after the fact. Finally read the Staples article and there is no link to the Hockey News article.

    To jump from a Hockey News articles about roster counts beyond round 2 to a headline about MBS and subtext about lowetide is hilarious. At the very least make an effort to narrow every other team down to 3 round or later drafted since 2008. Small sample size that’s just starting to come into view isn’t it?

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