BURKE’S SCREENSAVER

We are in the middle of the misinformation that will lead Oilers fans to conclusions based on things that aren’t true. That’s how we get discussions about Jordan Eberle being an ‘in the range’ selection and Tyler Pitlick being a ‘reach selection’ as time rolls on. It’s VERY important to keep this stuff straight, because the mind plays tricks.

Generally speaking, the draft bible is the Bob McKenzie list. After that, Red Line Report is a respected industry standard, and I’m a really big fan of Corey Pronman—and his footprint on draft proceedings is increasing each season. This year, for our purposes, we’re going to follow those three services from now until draft day. No disrespect to others, but if you put all of the contenders into the mix, purity takes a holiday.

I’m going to publish the top 10 this morning, Pronman’s list is subscription (and available here) and well worth the coin. ESPN’s coverage is terrific, with Pronman’s stuff being the most compelling for me.

BOB MCKENZIE LOTTERY EDITION

  1. D Aaron Ekblad
  2. C Sam Reinhart
  3. C Sam Bennett
  4. C Leon Draisaitl
  5. L Michael Dal Colle
  6. L Nick Ritchie
  7. L Nikolaj Ehlers
  8. R Jake Virtanen
  9. R Kasperi Kapanen
  10. D Haydn Fleury

RED LINE MAY EDITION

  1. C Sam Bennett
  2. D Aaron Ekblad
  3. C Sam Reinhart
  4. C Leon Draisaitl
  5. L Michael Dal Colle
  6. L Nikolaj Ehlers
  7. R Jake Virtanen
  8. L Nick Ritchie
  9. C Robby Fabbri
  10. R Kevin Fiala

COREY PRONMAN FINAL

  1. D Aaron Ekblad
  2. C Sam Bennett
  3. R William Nylander
  4. C Sam Reinhart
  5. L Nikolaj Ehlers
  6. R Kevin Fiala
  7. C Leon Draisaitl
  8. L Michael Dal Colle
  9. R Kasperi Kapanen
  10. D Haydn Fleury

You’re going to hear a lot of people saying things like ‘Draisaitl is sliding’ or ‘Oilers should take Fiala, he closed strong’ or ‘Nylander is the man!’ from Oiler fans. That’s great, except we have to keep things in context. Let’s make a list of things we know we know:

  • Ekblad, Reinhart and Bennett show up at the top of every list. Reinhart is 4th on Pronman’s but that’s not a bad thing, Corey likes Nylander better and we need to factor it in. Jim Matheson has Dale Tallon liking Nylander the most in an article that dropped last night, so this isn’t a crazy notion by Pronman.
  • Draisaitl shows up 4,4 and 7. I think that works as a range, but if he goes 3 or 8, no one should begin foaming at the mouth. The Oilers are going to leave one of Ekblad, Reinhart or Bennett on the draft board though, and value wise that’s going to be an interesting follow. The fact that Calgary will take the player passed over just adds to the delightful scenario facing Edmonton. It’s kind of funny, in a gallows kind of way. Edmonton apparently tried to trade down in 2012, not wanting to make a decision between Yakupov, Murray and Reinhart. Problem: no one else wanted to make that decision either! Ah, the humor.
  • Dal Colle is Draisaitl, once removed.
  • Pronman’s list is his final edition. He’s slotted his Euro’s thusly:  Nylander 3, Fiala 6, Kapanen 9. He’s done it without the benefit of reaching out to the industry after their scouting meetings, and without the benefit of extra time (one month, basically). I always find the McKenzie list, and to a certain extent Red Line, slots their Europeans in right at the end. Part of it comes from the U-18, part from the scouting meetings that include everyone happening in May and June, but we shouldn’t be surprised if Nylander, Fiala and Kapanen end up on all the lists.

LAST YEAR’S EDITIONS

Bob McKenzie

  1. C Nathan Mackinnon
  2. D Seth Jones
  3. L Jonathan Drouin
  4. C Alexsander Barkov
  5. C Elias Lindholm
  6. L Valeri Nichushkin
  7. C Sean Monahan
  8. D Rasmus Ristalainen
  9. D Darnell Nurse
  10. C Max Domi

Red Line Report

  1. D Seth Jones
  2. L Jonathan Drouin
  3. C Nathan MacKinnon
  4. C Aleksander Barkov
  5. L Valeri Nichushkin
  6. C Sean Monahan
  7. C Elias Lidnholm
  8. D Darnell Nurse
  9. C Max Domi
  10. C Bo Horvat

Corey Pronman

  1. L Jonathan Drouin
  2. C Nathan MacKinnon
  3. D Seth Jones
  4. L Valeri Nichushkin
  5. C Aleksander Barkov
  6. C Elias Lindholm
  7. C Sean Monahan
  8. D Rasmus Ristolainen
  9. C Max Domi
  10. C Hunter Shinkaruk

I like looking at the draft this way. Three sources, different and unique but they also crossover a lot. Drouin was a little all over the place, MacKinnon and Jones right at the top and Barkov was last year’s Draisaitl. That’s the good thing about looking at things this way, you see patterns. This year’s Nurse? Kapanen. Fun stuff.  I can tell you that the Oilers and Red Line Report seem to be marching in lock step in recent drafts, so paying attention to their list is probably a good idea for Oiler fans. Last year, they had Nurse, Roy and Houck inside their top 40, and loved the Russian element. They were also big fans of Khaira.

BURKE’S SCREENSAVER

matty twitter

If I’m Brian Burke, this is my screen saver. Why not? I mean, good lord, if the Edmonton Oilers are (apparently) leaking their thoughts to the media, it’s very helpful! Burke can imagine the top of the draft:

  1. Florida: D Aaron Ekblad
  2. Buffalo: C Sam Reinhart
  3. Edmonton: C Leon Draisaitl
  4. Calgary: C Sam Bennnett or Michael Dal Colle or William Nylander or perhaps shop the pick

WHY give Burke and his new GM this kind of lead time? WHY? WHY? WHY? If they grade out Sam Bennett as #1 overall, and that’s completely possible, they can wait for the draft to come to them. If they want Ekblad? Giddy-up.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Hawks-Kings, Habs in trouble, Shero, Tallon trading out of No. 1
  • Andrew Berkshire, Habs Eyes on the Prize. Frustrating weekend for Montreal fans.
  • Alan Hull, Copper and Blue. We’ll check in with Alan on the draft, trade options and general merriment.
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings PBP. BIG game tonight, we’ll talk about the Oil Kings and the Memorial Cup.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter.

 

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79 Responses to "BURKE’S SCREENSAVER"

  1. Rondo says:

    It seems like the top 3 are interchangeable in all mock draft’s except Pronman’s. The 4th pick is the one that has many choices.

    Sounds like Draisaitl have a good game against USA.

    LT would this ever happen ? Oilers GM asks Jeff Petry his impression of Draisaitl?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    It seems like the top 3 are interchangeable in all mock draft’s except Pronman’s. The 4th pick is the one that has manychoices.

    Sounds like Draisaitl have a good game against USA.

    LT would this ever happen ? Oilers GM asks Jeff Petry his impression of Draisaitl?

    No idea. Seems like a good idea.

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I like Pronman a lot….

    BUT, he’s an idiosyncratic scout, like Button.

    I tend to take his comments as much more valuable than his specific draft order (which is also very, very useful — don’t get me wrong). It helps that he offers such intensive commentary and comparisons for each player and explains his thinking. Very insightful.

    For actual lists though, I prefer the collective approach because it smooths out some of the outliers (who I tend to look for in idiosyncratic lists as signs of movement, like Pronman and Fiala)

    The Hockey News, ISS, Central Scouting are pretty instructive.

    And, IIRC Nhlnumbers and coppernblue have been, of late, trying to create aggregate lists — a la Nate Silver — based on all the public lists.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I like Pronman a lot….

    BUT, he’s an idiosyncratic scout, like Button.

    I tend to take his comments as much more valuable than his specific draft order (which is also very, very useful — don’t get me wrong). It helps that he offers such intensive commentary and comparisons for each player and explains his thinking. Very insightful.

    For actual lists though, I prefer the collective approach because it smooths out some of the outliers (who I tend to look for in idiosyncratic lists as signs of movement, like Pronman and Fiala)

    The Hockey News, ISS, Central Scouting are pretty instructive.

    And, IIRC Nhlnumbers and coppernblue have been, of late, trying to create aggregate lists — a la Nate Silver — based on all the public lists.

    I’m not a fan of it, because you’re including a lot of blind info. WHO does the HN list? They apparently have the Oilers taking Ritchie 3rd? THAT’S crazy.

  5. blainer says:

    Boy this will be a tough decision for management if Ekblad doesn’t fall to us. I did not expect Jones to fall to 4 last year. If he does fall I wonder do the oilers pick Ekblad or the center?

  6. Rondo says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I agree some of Pronman’s top 10 picks have been outside the consensus.

    Have you looked at previous years 2012 2011

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I’m not a fan of it, because you’re including a lot of blind info. WHO does the HN list? They apparently have the Oilers taking Ritchie 3rd? THAT’S crazy.

    Hockey News?

    I don’t have the stuff behind the paywall or the news stand edition.

    It sounds like you are referring to a mock draft that I haven’t read. It should have a by-line though.

    On the 3 HN lists I’ve read, all go to some effort to explain their method:

    Ryan Kennedy’s most recent list:

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/ryan-kennedys-top-30-prospects-for-the-2014-draft/

    he explains:

    The basis of my draft rankings has always been weighed heavily by the interviews I conduct with scouts and executives that work for NHL teams. My logic being that they’re the ones making the picks, they’re the ones with skin in the game. So this year has been difficult, since a real plurality is forming around the No. 1 pick overall. Two players are getting nearly all the votes, but will they end up being the first two taken? That’s the fun and mystery of the draft in a non-Steven Stamkos, non-Sidney Crosby year. But it also makes rankings a lot more chaotic…

  8. Clarkenstein says:

    If only MacT could walk the walk like he talks the talk…. sigh.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Here’s their online preview of the news stand edition:

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/sam-bennett-gets-no-1-billing-in-draft-preview-2014/

    Here’s how we came by our decision to make Bennett No. 1.
    We again enlisted the services of independent scout Grant McCagg in determining our Hot 100 list for the June 27-28 draft in Philadelphia.
    In addition to his own opinion, McCagg consulted with four other scouts and came up with an order of 1. Bennett, 2. Ekblad, 3. Reinhart and 4. Drasaitl. Our two chief writers for the Draft Preview project, Ryan Kennedy and Ken Campbell, also consulted with a cadre of their own scouts.
    For a while, we considered moving Ekblad into the No. 1 spot ahead of Bennett, but after more discussion and a consideration of all the scouting opinions we received, we kept Bennett at the head of the class.
    It should be noted this order is based on our (and the scouts who helped us) projections on who’s going to become the best NHL player. It is not a mock draft. We’re not saying the Florida Panthers will pick Bennett, the Buffalo Sabres will pick Ekblad, the Edmonton Olers will pick Reinhart and the Calgary Flames will pick Leon Drasaitl. In fact, we’d be surprised if that came to pass. Each of those teams obviously have their own preferences and order.

    and here’s Kennedy’s recent mock draft:

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/ryan-kennedys-lottery-mock-draft/

    Florida won the draft lottery last night, meaning the Panthers get the first crack at an interesting field with a lot of variation in it. A lot goes into a draft list and the final results are always thrown into chaos by trades and reaches. As the draft gets closer and teams decide who they like the most, I’ll get a more accurate picture of how things might shake down. But for now, here’s a quick-and-dirty look at what could happen come draft day in Philadelphia, based on the teams’ current situation.

    he has Oilers picking Bennett

    ——–
    I’m not seeing Ritchie. But I believe you. And, that would be crazy. He has Nonis written all over him.

    But, that would be a Mock Draft, not a compiled list, no?

    ——-
    sorry for all the separate posts… i didn’t want to fight with the automated moderator for having too many links.

  10. garnet says:

    I hope the Oilers stay away from young Nylander, simply because I think the organization gets a little too excited about the sons of people MacT and Lowe played against/with – hence Robert Nilsson, Dillon Simpson and Will Acton. I’d make an exception for young Reinhart, but ’80s nostalgia is a problem for this team, though Katz obviously doesn’t mind – it’s a big reason why Lowe and MacT have jobs.

  11. sliderule says:

    On the nhl radio network they had a guy from future considerations commenting on U18 tournament.

    He said Nylander has great individual skill but from inferences an ego as big as Atlantic.

    In warmup rest of team goes thru coaches drills and he does his own thing by himself.He sounds like a lone wolf.

    His mother would probably give him pretty negative view of Edmonton.

    Draisaitl with a goal and two assists against USA .Did anyone see the Game?

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Try this one

    http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/hockeynews/hockey/draft_articles.php?2014&aid=877

    Ahhh… that’s very interesting. thank you.

    I don’t think this is anything we should take as definitive. It’s over a month old now. Has no clear by-line. Is a blog post without much substance.

    Compared to the other pieces the HN has done (linked to above) this doesn’t merit much attn.

    ——-
    One thing I think it might be valuable for, however, is showing how strong the case for Bennett has been over the past month. He’s had a real surge. though this mock draft is all kinds of outlier.

  13. Ducey says:

    In looking at Pronman, the furthest back I seem to be able to find is a top 100 from 2011

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=955

    He has Couturier at #2 but also Landeskog at 13 and St Croix at 26 (St Croix went in the 4th round). He also had Musil at 30 and Ewanyk at 90, interestingly.

    He had Tyler Biggs at 78. The Leaves took him at 22.

    In looking at his top 100′s there seems to be a bias (and everyone has a bias) towards Euros and for guys who can put up points, regardless of size.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I agree some of Pronman’s top 10picks have beenoutside the consensus.

    Have you looked at previous years 2012 2011

    Here’s pronman top 100 2013:

    http://hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=1522

    (see LT’s post for order)

    BM’s list:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9420

    (again see above)

  15. Jon K says:

    I wonder if people misremember the Eberle pick due to the rather unique circumstances surrounding the pick re: the Davis family.

    http://www.faceoff.com/hockey/teams/edmonton-oilers/story.html?id=9c78d5c6-1507-4eb1-995e-95a0e32b9ec7

    However, it is not correct that Eberle was projected where he was selected, as other, smart individuals have noted as well.

    http://oilersnation.com/2012/5/14/the-jordan-eberle-selection

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    pronman 2012:

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=1305

    1. Nail Yakupov, Left Wing, Sarnia-OHL*
    2. Mikhail Grigorenko, Center, Quebec-QMJHL*
    3. Alexander Galchenyuk, Center, Sarnia-OHL*
    4. Filip Forsberg, Right Wing, Leksands-Allsvenskan*
    5. Teuvo Teravainen, Left Wing, Jokerit-SM-Liiga*
    6. Matt Dumba, Defense, Red Deer-WHL*
    7. Morgan Rielly, Defense, Moose Jaw-WHL*
    8. Ryan Murray, Defense, Everett-WHL*
    9. Pontus Aberg, Left Wing, Djurgarden-SEL*
    10. Radek Faksa, Center, Kitchener-OHL*

    BM: 2012:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9825

    1 Nail Yakupov, RW
    2 Ryan Murray, D
    3 Filip Forsberg, LW
    4 Griffin Reinhart, D
    5 Alex Galchenyuk, C
    6 Mathew Dumba, D
    7 Teuvo Teravainen, LW
    8 Morgan Rielly, D
    9 Jacob Trouba, D
    10 Olli Maatta, D

  17. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    pronman 2011:

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=955

    1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Center, Red Deer-WHL*
    2. Sean Couturier, Center, Drummondville-QMJHL*
    3. Ryan Strome, Center, Niagara-OHL*
    4. Jonathan Huberdeau, Center, Saint John-QMJHL*
    5. Adam Larsson, Defense, Skelleftea-SEL*
    6. Ryan Murphy, Defense, Kitchener-OHL*
    7. Mika Zibanejad, Left Wing, Djurgarden-SEL*
    8. Nathan Beaulieu, Defense, Saint John-QMJHL*
    9. Mark McNeill, Center, Prince Albert-WHL*
    10. Rocco Grimaldi, Center, USA Under-18-USHL*

    BM 2011:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=44969

    1 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C
    2 Adam Larsson, D
    3 Jonathan Huberdeau, C
    4 Gabriel Landeskog, LW
    5 Sean Couturier, C
    6 Dougie Hamilton, D
    7 Ryan Strome, C
    8 Ryan Murphy, D
    9 Mika Zibanejad, C
    10 Jonas Brodin, D

  18. sliderule says:

    The only list that makes sense to me is the BM list.

    If you check his record on TSN site he is pretty much bang on with team picks over the years.

  19. Caramel Obvious says:

    These guys are trying to do different things MacKenzie’s list is a prediction list–a consensus of what the scouts he talks to say. Pronman’s list is evaluative. It’s his opinion on who will be the best players. It makes no sense to measure Pronman’s list against what happens.

    It also makes no sense to build Pronman into a consensus list by compiling them unless you think his opinion is 10x more valuable than an anonymous scout, and equally valuable as the hive mind of scouts.

    The only retrospective comparison that makes sense is to see who actually picked the better players.

    Pronman looks worse than hive mind in 2011 and 2012 by a quick perusal. A couple of big misses each year, and a huge miss on taking Drouin over MacKinnon in 2013 (Mackinnon willb e the best player in the world in two years). So Pronman isn’t looking that great by a quick eye, though it’s early and the real value is further down the charts.

    I do wish we had taken Ristolainen instead of Nurse last year.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    The only list that makes sense to me is the BM list.

    If you check his record on TSN site he is pretty much bang on with team picks over the years.

    this is a useful site:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=86218

    you can click around back to 2004. just top 30. just the ranking and the order picked.

    ——–
    I disagree that this is only site. More information is good. And, the other sites are all helpful in their own way.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious: These guys are trying to do different things MacKenzie’s list is a prediction list–a consensus of what the scouts he talks to say. Pronman’s list is evaluative. It’s his opinion on who will be the best players. It makes no sense to measure Pronman’s list against what happens.

    I don’t think this is how BM views his list.

    he repeatedly says it’s not a mock draft and not intended to be viewed as a guide to where picks will be taken. It is the consensus of the 10 scouts he talks to.

    I agree it is less evaluative, in that he doesn’t devote much time to dissecting the players (usually he has Button do the write-ups for each player). But the purpose is the same as Pronman’s just x10.

  22. theres oil in virginia says:

    Jon K,

    Great finds! Thanks.

  23. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    He had Tyler Biggs at 78. The Leaves took him at 22.

    Based on Biggs’ 9pts in 57 AHL games last year perhaps The Leaves should have taken him in a subsequent round if they liked him.

    Don’t understand Landeskog at 13 though.

    Cory does say he’s trying to project the career, not the immediate future, but that seems like a bit of a whiff.

  24. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I don’t think this is how BM views his list.

    he repeatedly says it’s not a mock draft and not intended to be viewed as a guide to where picks will be taken. It is the consensus of the 10 scouts he talks to.

    I agree it is less evaluative, in that he doesn’t devote much time to dissecting the players (usually he has Button do the write-ups for each player). But the purpose is the same as Pronman’s just x10.

    CO is right in that because of how BM’s list is complied, it becomes very predictive.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: CO is right in that because of how BM’s list is complied, it becomes very predictive.

    that’s just saying it is typically a good barometer of what scouts are thinking and therefore what will happen.

    ie., it is to conflate the success of the exercise with its intent.

  26. Rondo says:

    Ducey,

    Pronman favours forwards and European’s

  27. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I don’t think this is how BM views his list.

    he repeatedly says it’s not a mock draft and not intended to be viewed as a guide to where picks will be taken. It is the consensus of the 10 scouts he talks to.

    I agree it is less evaluative, in that he doesn’t devote much time to dissecting the players (usually he has Button do the write-ups for each player). But the purpose is the same as Pronman’s just x10.

    It’s purpose isn’t the same. Pronman’s purpose is to identify the best players. MacKenzie’s purpose is to identify who teams think are the best players. These are different in kind, not degree.

    MacKenzie’s list is predictive because he’s asking the people who do the drafting what they think. It is more predictive than a mock draft, not less. The consensus top 10 is an excellent predictive tool by design whatever MacKenzie thinks.

    Pronman’s list isn’t predictive at all, or if it is, it is only by happenstance.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BTW, here’s NHLNumbers from last year:

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/6/26/2013-nhl-draft-rankings-final

    and the statement of their method:

    The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, The Hockey News, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report. Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie’s rankings carry the most weight as he’s the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious: It’s purpose isn’t the same. Pronman’s purpose is to identify the best players. MacKenzie’s purpose is to identify who teams think are the best players. These are different in kind, not degree.

    If there’s a distinction here it does not make a difference and if it does, it only does so by degree.

    One persons saying: I think these are the best players

    ten persons saying: I think these are the best players

    one perspective on an apple vs ten. In the latter we get a lot more information. but we are still viewing the same object and with the same evaluative goal.

  30. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: If there’s a distinction here it does not make a difference and if it does, it only does so by degree.

    One persons saying: I think these are the best players

    ten persons saying: I think these are the best players

    one perspective on an apple vs ten. In the latter we get a lot more information. but we are still viewing the same object and with the same evaluative goal.

    It’s the difference between outsiders and insiders. Which makes all the difference.

    I don’t understand what you don’t understand about this? It is obvious. Asking a set of people within an identifiable category what they like is a good way of predicting what people in that category are going to do. It doesn’t matter what MacKenzie’ thinks his purpose is. What matters is what the purpose of his action is.

  31. russ99 says:

    I don’t think they’re telegraphing anything, since usually the first round draft decision is made just before the draft. Plus, everyone already knows our strengths and weaknesses.

    IMO. I still think the top of the draft is going to shake out as we initially thought at the lottery because NHL scouts aren’t going to toss out a year + of research over what happened in the last 3-4 weeks.

    1. Florida (or team up trading for pick) – Ekblad
    2. Buffalo – Reinhart
    3. Edmonton – Draisaitl
    4- Calgary – Bennett

  32. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Caramel Obvious: It’s the difference between outsiders and insiders.Which makes all the difference.

    I don’t understand what you don’t understand about this?It is obvious.Asking a set of people within an identifiable category what they like is a good way of predicting what people in that category are going to do.It doesn’t matter what MacKenzie’ thinks his purpose is.What matters is what the purpose of his action is.

    Yes. Asking outsiders to mock draft based on the fits they see is going to be less predictive of actual draft order than asking the fellows in the room for a non-mock ranking. The only way Bob M. could get closer is if he asked his scouts to go past who they rate first and to include any inside mock info they have.

  33. Hammers says:

    LT don’t you think McKenzie builds into his selections a little of what he thinks the individual teams needs are and that is why he is typically the closest to the mark .Also I notice Pronman didn’t have Nurse in his top 10 . Makes me wonder if McT will continue to look deeper on his choices than just the rank .So far his evaluation on say Eakins was also character based and I think Nurse was that way as well . When he watched Klefbom in Sweden his mind was made up on a few shifts .Will he defer to McGregor or go on his own gut feel from both interviews with the players and actually watching them ?

  34. Woodguy says:

    . Jim Matheson has Dale Tallon liking Nylander the most in an article that dropped last night, so this isn’t a crazy notion by Pronman.

    Matty also speculates that Wilson would shop Thorton and Marleau.

    You have two very good players signed below market value with NMC.

    Not exactly trade bait.

  35. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: Ducey, He had Tyler Biggs at 78. The Leaves took him at 22.Based on Biggs’ 9pts in 57 AHL games last year perhaps The Leaves should have taken him in a subsequent round if they liked him.Don’t understand Landeskog at 13 though.Cory does say he’s trying to project the career, not the immediate future, but that seems like a bit of a whiff.

    You are likely right on Biggs. And I wouldn’t mind if they had a draft bust but HF says he was playing shutdown in his first year. So the boxcars may not tell the story:

    11. (10) Tyler Biggs, RW, 6.5C
    Drafted 1st round, 22nd overall, 2011

    Perhaps not so much showing the numbers, Tyler Biggs has been an effective forward for the Marlies this season. He was placed on the third line to begin the season, and while his minutes have sometimes dipped and peaked, he has become one third of an integral shutdown line with the team, along with Jerred Smithson and Mike Duco. His six goals and two assists are certainly underwhelming, but he has been able to strive on his checking skills. He should be in line for a top-six spot on the Marlies next season, where management will get a better glimpse of his offensive potential.
    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/104437/size-and-skill-highlight-toronto-maple-leafs-spring-top-20/

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious: It’s the difference between outsiders and insiders.Which makes all the difference.

    I don’t understand what you don’t understand about this?It is obvious.Asking a set of people within an identifiable category what they like is a good way of predicting what people in that category are going to do.It doesn’t matter what MacKenzie’ thinks his purpose is.What matters is what the purpose of his action is.

    I understand your point. I think you are assuming too strong a difference between independent and affiliated scouts IMO.

    It’s an accident of history that one scout got hired by an NHL team and another by ESPN.

  37. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    I remember last year Nichushkin was rumoured to go #2 or #3. I don’t put much weight on what Tallon says.

  38. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I understand your point. I think you are assuming too strong a difference between independent and affiliated scouts IMO.

    It’s an accident of history that one scout got hired by an NHL team and another by ESPN.

    My point is that Pronman’s failure to predict when they are drafted is not evidence of anything since his list is not predictive in that sense. Similarly MacKenzie’s success at predicting general draft order is also not evidence of anything other than its success at prediction.

    What matters is which list actually identifies the better players.

  39. Younger Oil says:

    Draisaitl with a goal and two assists against USA at the worlds today. That’s pretty impressive.

  40. denny33 says:

    IIHF Website:

    “Germany’s own rising star Leon Draisaitl delivered an eye-catching display in a losing cause to round off a strong individual showing in this tournament.

  41. Rondo says:

    Leon Draisaitl looked excellent, did not look slow, he looked big on the ice Not much physical play. However on Olympic ice size you have more time to pass which plays into Leon Draisaitl strength’s.

  42. RexLibris says:

    I’ve listened to Bennet, Reinhart and Draisaitl’s interviews on the radio this spring. Funny, because after each one I find myself thinking “that sounds like the kid they’ll draft”. Can’t decide and were the Flames not picking 4th I don’t think I’d really care that much.

    In my ideal world Burke, er, sorry, I meant Treliving trades up to 1st overall and takes Ekblad or trades down or out of the 1st round.

  43. RexLibris says:

    So Benning is expected to be the new GM of the Canucks.

    Shero maybe goes to Washington?

    All this change is good for the OIlers, in my opinion. If they want to move Gagner or make other trade acquisitions they’ll need lots of GMs with few attachments to their respective rosters.

  44. Bank Shot says:

    RexLibris:
    So Benning is expected to be the new GM of the Canucks.

    Shero maybe goes to Washington?

    All this change is good for the OIlers, in my opinion. If they want to move Gagner or make other trade acquisitions they’ll need lots of GMs with few attachments to their respective rosters.

    The bad news is that everyone else is hiring GMs that appear to be a lot more qualified than Craig Mactavish.

  45. godot10 says:

    MacKenzie’s list is a AGGREGATED list. A compilation of the list of 10 actual NHL teams lists. He is one trustworthy dude. It should be given at least 10x the weight of any single individuals’ list in a comparison.

  46. Numenius says:

    What a shocker if Buffalo took Draisaitl. You don’t hear that suggested very often, though it’s in line with the Panther’s taking Barkov last year.

    If Ekblad’s not available, who do you take then, Bennett or Reinhart? I’d take Draisaitl before both of them, but I’d have a tough time deciding between them.

  47. godot10 says:

    RexLibris:
    So Benning is expected to be the new GM of the Canucks.

    But, according to Elliote Friedman, not before Trevor Linden did a mind probe of Scott Howson, MacT’s right hand man.

    MacT missed the opportunity to mind probe Alain Vigneault last year, because of a fast onset Eakins man crush.

  48. Rondo says:

    Jason Gregor has a good article regarding the Oilers

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/5/20/a-recipe-for-losing

  49. Racki says:

    I wonder if the Draisaitl leak is intended to convince Fla or Buff it would be safe to trade down to 3. I am hoping beyond hope for Bennett or Ekblad. Both these guys seem the real one / two.. Whereas others seem like the next tier. I would be very happy if the Oilers can trade for pick 2 at worst.

  50. Ducey says:

    Bank Shot: The bad news is that everyone else is hiring GMs that appear to be a lot more qualified than Craig Mactavish.

    How’s that?

    Oh, right. An opportunity to complain. I have a new phrase for you guys: Because Oilers “Fans”.

    MacT is more qualified as a GM as he has been one for a year. You can bet he starts ahead of all the new guys on knowing the market for players, other GM’s, agents etc.

    I expect that if the Oilers brought in a guy who had played for them (like Benning did for the Canucks or Hextall did for the Flyers) people would be screaming about Boys on the Bus and nepotism.

    Benning was the director of scouting for BUF from ’98 – 2004 and the list of his picks doesn’t exactly knock your socks off:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Buffalo_Sabres_draft_picks

    But he has to be better than MacT, because Oilers “fans”.

    I actually hope Benning does well, just not too well. I grew up playing against his brother, Brian, who had a nice NHL career himself.

  51. russ99 says:

    Ducey,

    I would be siding more towards your view on this, but other teams have a transparent process where they interview people for the position and pick the best candidate.

    MacT “assumed” the GM job and from all accounts just picked Eakins based on an interview, and was so swayed by the interview for assistant coach that he axed Krueger and hired him on the spot.

    Because Oilers: we don’t have to vet candidates and go through a normal hiring process.

  52. Ducey says:

    russ99: Ducey, I would be siding more towards your view on this, but other teams have a transparent process where they interview people for the position and pick the best candidate.MacT “assumed” the GM job and from all accounts just picked Eakins based on an interview, and was so swayed by the interview for assistant coach that he axed Krueger and hired him on the spot.Because Oilers: we don’t have to vet candidates and go through a normal hiring process.

    Linden and Benning were both picked by the media early on. Both are “Old Boys”.

    The fact they went thru the interview process changed what?

    Appearances, perhaps, but nothing substantial.

    Was there any doubt about Hextall being anointed?

  53. VanOil says:

    Please check out this joyous review of the Dys drafting incompetence. I will smuggly assume the Oilers were far superior to the Maple Leaf potato manager or the Canucks Sham. We did draft Chase after all.

    http://canucksarmy.com/2014/5/20/we-think-the-vancouver-canucks-may-have-a-scouting-problem

  54. Bank Shot says:

    Ducey: How’s that?

    Oh, right.An opportunity to complain.I have a new phrase for you guys:Because Oilers “Fans”.

    MacT is more qualified as a GM as he has been one for a year.You can bet he starts ahead of all the new guys on knowing the market for players, other GM’s, agents etc.

    I expect that if the Oilers brought in a guy who had played for them (like Benning did for the Canucks or Hextall did for the Flyers) people would be screaming about Boys on the Bus and nepotism.

    Benning was the director of scouting for BUF from ’98 – 2004 and the list of his picks doesn’t exactly knock your socks off:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Buffalo_Sabres_draft_picks

    But he has to be better than MacT, because Oilers “fans”.

    I actually hope Benning does well, just not too well.I grew up playing against his brother, Brian, who had a nice NHL career himself.

    I’ve been an Oilers season ticket holder for 4 years so I think I know a little something about complaining. At this point there really isn’t much left except complaining. I would like to know what exactly you see that inspires optimism?

    Mact is more qualified because he spent one year as senior vice president and then stepped into the big chair?

    Benning has spent 7 years in a management role, and double that on the management side of the business.

    You slag his drafting record in Buffalo? From 2001-2003 Buffalo found three players in each draft. That’s pretty damn good. In 2001 they found Roy and Pominville in the second round. For the Oilers you would have to go back to 1993 to find a year where they found two impact players outside the first round in the same draft.

    If Vancouver had brought back Crawford as an assistant GM and made him GM after one year we would all be scoffing at them. From the perspective of a non-Oiler fan, Benning is a far superior hire to Craig Mactavish. Just is.

    I don’t know how anyone could dispute that.

  55. sumaclab says:

    Draisatl / Eckblad. Flip a coin. That’s who you pick. Pretty much how we should pick. It so close it makes the mind boggled. I’ll be happy with whoever we draft. If we draft. That’s another jar of pickles you don’t want to open.

  56. denny33 says:

    Ducey,

    How’s that?
    Oh, right. An opportunity to complain. I have a new phrase for you guys: Because Oilers “Fans”.
    *********************************************************************************************
    Perhaps you are not aware….

    five consecutive seasons of finishing 30th, 30th, 29th, 24th and 28th.

  57. Ducey says:

    Denny:

    I got the memo. I was pretty sure they were trying to tank in some of those years….perhaps you forgot that when your unrealistic expectations for the playoffs were dashed this last year.

    Anyway that doesn’t mean that every move the Oilers make is bad. MacT and Eakins suck because the Oilers finished 30, 30, 28 when they were not even in charge?

  58. Ducey says:

    Bank Shot,

    Maybe you could tell me exactly what Benning has done that inspires such confidence? I mean what did he do, exactly.

    I have no clue. Neither you do. But because the Oilers are bad, MacT is bad and Benning is good.

    Tambo was supposed to be the next great GM – people forget that – he was the outside hire. How did that work out?

    You have Lowe, who was a GM, Howson, who was a GM. And MacT who spent lots of time in lots of roles and is a sharp cookie.

    I think that matches up pretty good compared to Trevor Linden (who has NO experience WHATSOEVER) and Benning who was an assistant.

  59. nycoil says:

    To echo a few comments from people:
    1) Eberle in a redraft would go Top 5. Very good pick. Revisionist to say it was the obvious pick. Totally disagree.
    2) Pitlick was ranked in the 20s by McKenzie. I recall the Oilers had a night to sleep on it. Everyone thought Pitlick was the right choice and the safe choice then. Revisionist to say otherwise. That wasn’t the case with Musil, but everyone liked Pitlick then.
    3) While ranking Landeskog 13 is a tad low, in defense of Pronman, he is trying to project future upside potential, rather than most NHL ready. A lot of people were talking about how Landeskog was already a mam amongst boys in Kitchener and some people talk about how a prospect looks less appealing if he looks like he is already near full potential. A lot of people thought Landeskog was there. A 60pt player, tops, with edge and leadership. Other prospects had higher projected upside, but Landeskog was probably the safest lottery pick to reach his potential. And it seems he may have a bit higher offensive upside than was thought.

    And to add to Burke’s story, he apparently told Flames’ season ticket holders he doesn’t like Draisaitl. Smoke screen in response to Matheson’s tweet? And I cringed when I saw that in March. Infuriating to show your hand. The worst.

  60. Ducey says:

    Oh and Benning’s drafting record?

    If you look at it. He didn’t do much, if any better than the great Prendergaast.

  61. boopronger says:

    Really have a feeling eckblad will fall to the oilers. It’s actually more common that a dman would drop then not.

  62. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I mean, good lord, if the Edmonton Oilers are (apparently) leaking their thoughts to the media, it’s very helpful!

    Yeah, same way they (repeatedly!) leaked the Drew Stafford and Deryk Engelland trades so long before they happened that they still haven’t happened.

    There may be the odd grain of truth here and there, but the information seems to be sufficiently corrupted by significant amounts of misinformation and disinformation as to hold very little in the way of strategic value for an outside interest.

  63. Racki says:

    I’m not sure I see the strategic value for Calgary to know MacT has a raging one for Draisaitl anyways. The Oilers also have been very guarded in the past with even their first overalls so I am not so sure they’re really trying to reveal that they want Draisaitl.

  64. Bank Shot says:

    Ducey:
    Oh and Benning’s drafting record?

    If you look at it.He didn’t do much, if any better than the great Prendergaast.

    If you actually look at it you will see that Benning’s Sabres drafted 16 full time NHLers in the period from 1998-2004.

    Prendergast drafted 8.

    I’d say that is substantially better.

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10:
    MacKenzie’s list is a AGGREGATED list.A compilation of the list of 10 actual NHL teams lists.He is one trustworthy dude.It should be given at least 10x the weight of any single individuals’ list in a comparison.

    I agree with something of the spirit of this, but the letter is wrong if I’ve got my facts straight.

    BM’s list isn’t derived from NHL team’s lists. it is derived from a number of scouts who happen to work for NHL teams.

    Typically he’s cited 10 scouts. Though, recently it has been 12:

    “In a survey of 12 NHL team scouts by TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie, ”

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/story/?id=449462

    We don’t know from which teams (or if all from different teams), if these are head scouts or what. But, I see no reason to think they represent the view of any given NHL team’s list any more than Bob Brown’s view represents the Oilers’ list.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious: My point is that Pronman’s failure to predict when they are drafted is not evidence of anything since his list is not predictive in that sense.Similarly MacKenzie’s success at predicting general draft order is also not evidence of anything other than its success at prediction.

    What matters is which list actually identifies the better players.

    But, you’re the one who is making this about “prediction” of draft order.

    BM’s list isn’t about predicting the order the players go. The fact that he does fairly accurately is accidental to the exercise.

    The exercise is the same as Pronman’s: To identify the “best players” — the only difference being he uses more input and tends to be (accidentally) more accurate in predicting actual draft order.

  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I mean, good lord, if the Edmonton Oilers are (apparently) leaking their thoughts to the media, it’s very helpful!

    Yeah, same way they (repeatedly!) leaked the Drew Stafford and Deryk Engelland trades so long before they happened that they still haven’t happened.

    There may be the odd grain of truth here and there, but the information seems to be sufficiently corrupted by significant amounts of misinformation and disinformation as to hold very little in the way of strategic value for an outside interest.

    I think this is great point.

    It is always tricky trying to discern Matty’s hobby horses (he mentioned Engelland 4 times in the span of a month this past Oct.) from his actual info.

    ——-
    The wild card here, is that it is entirely possible that Ekblad/Draisaitl were the prefered picks and that the dynamic within the scouting staff has changed.

    I imagine all 4 (EK, Drai, Rein, Ben) have champions within the group. I could easily see any of those guys being the top pick come draft day.

  68. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I mean, good lord, if the Edmonton Oilers are (apparently) leaking their thoughts to the media, it’s very helpful!

    Yeah, same way they (repeatedly!) leaked the Drew Stafford and Deryk Engelland trades so long before they happened that they still haven’t happened.

    There may be the odd grain of truth here and there, but the information seems to be sufficiently corrupted by significant amounts of misinformation and disinformation as to hold very little in the way of strategic value for an outside interest.

    I could be wrong, but the phrasing by Matheson in his articles always makes things a suggestion. “The Edmonton Oilers should be looking at Drew Stafford” or “Edmonton would do well to ask about Derek Engylland” that sort of thing.

    What I noticed was the very specific quote above. Jim Matheson, unless he’s losing it as a journalist, states a fact. I don’t really see any way around it.

  69. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: How’s that?

    Oh, right.An opportunity to complain.I have a new phrase for you guys:Because Oilers “Fans”.

    MacT is more qualified as a GM as he has been one for a year.You can bet he starts ahead of all the new guys on knowing the market for players, other GM’s, agents etc.

    I expect that if the Oilers brought in a guy who had played for them (like Benning did for the Canucks or Hextall did for the Flyers) people would be screaming about Boys on the Bus and nepotism.

    Benning was the director of scouting for BUF from ’98 – 2004 and the list of his picks doesn’t exactly knock your socks off:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Buffalo_Sabres_draft_picks

    But he has to be better than MacT, because Oilers “fans”.

    I actually hope Benning does well, just not too well.I grew up playing against his brother, Brian, who had a nice NHL career himself.

    Why are you ignoring that he was the Assistant GM of Boston for the last 8 years.

    He lived through, and saw how, they built from being a poor team to a dominate team next to one of the best GMs in the league.

    MacT coached the Oilers, left and took care of his health, got a MBA and then coached in the AHL for a year.

    Hardly the same resume.

    Also,

    Bank Shot owned your soul regarding his drafting record.

    Summary:

    Better track record drafting than Oilers

    Benning worked for Anaheim, Buffalo (while they were good) and Boston, so also has an idea how different orgs work in the NHL.

    Better experience than MacT, who really didn’t do much outside of the Oilers.

    So, not Because Oiler fans.

    Because Competence.

  70. TheOtherJohn says:

    The ONLY place MacT would get hired as a GM is in Edmonton. Not because he is not a good hockey man, he is, because he had ZERO experience in player management None. Today he has 13-14 months of experience dealing w other GM’s, agents etc. Benning would have 10+ years

    I can see how anyone would think Jim Benning was mediocre as a Director of Scouting 98-04. He is clearly unqualified to be a GM

    Over that timeframe Buffalo picked

    18th in 98
    20th in 99
    15th in 00
    22nd in 01
    11th in 02
    5th in 03
    13 in 04

    In that 6 year stretch he has 18 players with more than 200 games played. He selected Miller, Kotalik, Derek Roy, Pominville, Gaustad, Wideman, Clarke MacArthur, Hejda outside of the 1st round who have all played 200+ games. Very very effective players. Very effective Director of Pro scouting.

    Amazing similiarity to the Oilers success in the 2nd round (usually picking 31, 32, 33 etc in 2nd round) and later. Sarcasm alert: NOT REALLY

    Next someone will move on to attacking”Old Boy” Jim Nill for spending 15+ years in management before getting hired as a GM in Dallas. Nill’s first move trading for a young 1C.Happens all the time: no it doesn’t

  71. DeadmanWaking says:

    russ99:
    Because Oilers: we don’t have to vet candidates and go through a normal hiring process.

    You’re completely delusional about the human capacity for group rationalization. Many organizations put on an illustrious gong show of going through the standard process, then hire based on a ten-second first impression of The Man With The Perfect Jib nevertheless. It’s not at all hard to steer the standard process to choose whichever viable candidate you wanted in the first place. If MacT was honest enough to admit this to himself, then I only admire him for simply bypassing the tiresome dog and pony show. Was Eakins a viable candidate? Yes. I generally assume it’s someone who works for a union when I see capital pee Process advocated without so much as a countervailing wink toward opportunity cost.

    Indeed, MacT might have benefited from picking a few more brains, but he had no shortage whatsoever of shrewd hockey men already on his speed dial (a list which I’m sure runs well into three digits).

    The people he actually needed to be talking to were the other GMs. He needed to pester the other 29 GMs early and often, until he wormed his way into their current headspace, for each and every one.

    The underlying agenda of your position is to emasculate MacTavish’s long experience. He’s been in the business at the professional level for 35 long years, and filled many different roles with great distinction. After thirty-five years rubbing elbows with many of the greatest of the greats within a fairly small boys club, if the man isn’t capable of saying “I know it when I see it” hand the man a pair of dentures and a cane and ship him off to the old-folks home. Which is apparently what you wish to see.

    For cripes sake, the paper chase hiring process has more to do with screening out the Percy Wetmore’s of the world (and senior kin) than telling Colin Powell–in the last year of his 35-year military career–that he can’t recognize talent in a direct report until he dabs his pen over five official pages worth of officially-ratified tick boxes–while he’s fully immersed in an active campaign.

    I just can’t wait for Karate Kid V where a penurious Kesuke Miyagi takes up employment as an insurance claims adjuster at State Farm.

  72. denny33 says:

    Ducey,

    Mac T and Eakins own the record from this past season. Year 5 or whatever of the rebuild.

    They both own the 2013-14 results.

  73. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: It’s an accident of history that one scout got hired by an NHL team and another by ESPN.

    You don’t actually believe this for realz, do you?

  74. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: You don’t actually believe this for realz, do you?

    what’s the objection?

  75. Yeti says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: what’s the objection?

    The objection would likely be that real teams hire the elite scouts, while ESPN employ the filler who can’t get a full job but need a few bucks on the side.
    I have no idea if that’s true.

  76. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Yeti: The objection would likely be that real teams hire the elite scouts, while ESPN employ the filler who can’t get a full job but need a few bucks on the side.
    I have no idea if that’s true.

    I don’t know either.

    One thing I would note, however, is that NHL teams often hire scouts with no previous experience at the job because they are ex-players with ties to the team. I don’t know if the independent services extend the same courtesy to their prospective employees.

  77. Yeti says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I simply can’t believe that you would suggest nepotism is at work in professional hockey. Shame on you! It’s a meritocracy all the way, just like DMW laid it out.

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