DOUBLE DION KABLAMMO COMING TO TOWN?

There are names in the air this spring, and some of them have value. Here’s the problem: HOW MUCH of the future do you give up for Dion Phaneuf? Jason Spezza? I’m all for bringing in both, but at what price? Ladies, there are worse things (it turns out) than losing for most of a decade. Losing 2006-14 and THEN trading your future for a brief spike? Lordy. Just lordy. How deep would you cut in order to acquire Double Dion Kablammo?

kipperWould you trade Marincin straight up for Phaneuf? That gives you Phaneuf-Ference-Klefbom on the LH side. What about Klefbom straight up? That would give you Phaneuf-Marincin-Ference and cost more than $11 million. I wouldn’t make either move.

There might be a deal here, though. The Oilers have four defensemen I think we can agree will be on the team next season:

  • Marincin-Petry
  • Ference-Schultz

If you drive Phaneuf into that group, and have Darnell Nurse on the way, could you afford to send Klefbom away? And since the Leafs are dumping $7 million on the Oilers doorstep, what about throwing Gagner into the deal? And if Gagner is going one way, why not make the deal complete?

  • Oscar Klefbom and Sam Gagner to Toronto for Dion Phaneuf and Nazem Kadri

The Oilers are giving up a big part of their future, but do get a quality young player in return. The money on the deal (Klefbom $894, 167; Gagner $4.8M) is $5.7 million going out and (Phaneuf $7 million; Kadri $2.9 million) $9.9 million entering. So, the Oilers are giving up over $4M in cap room, moving in a top 4 defender and a forward who has a nice range of skills and some range in his skillset.

I know, I know, Phaneuf can’t play. Except he can. I wrote about him in 2012, and for me that’s the player Edmonton should assume they’re getting.

CORSI REL

phaneuf corsi rel

This is a wonky graph, because even though it’s CorsiRel the severity of the situation for Phaneuf and Gunnarsson doesn’t quite shine through. The Vollman Sledgehammer (which for some reason isn’t coming up for me this morning) shows an incredible line, and the Corsi QOC above reflects it. Incredible. Climbing Everest with Crocs.

ZONE START

phaneuf zone startsPhaneuf was 53.1% back in the 2012 article above, perhaps giving his next coach some insight into how to use him next season. Jake Gardiner—who Carlyle just doesn’t trust at all—ran a gorgeous CorsiRel while also posting a 43.7ZS, it would be interesting to look at his season.

QUAL COMP

phaneuf qual compRandy Carlyle could run Shawshank. Jesus. The next time someone says “you can’t run an NHL team on two defensemen” show them this graph. And if you want to know what the Leafs are looking for this summer, it’s defensemen Carlyle likes. Maybe Ference?

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

JOHANSSON

I like Phaneuf, always have. I also like Kadri. As much as trading Oscar Klefbom is a noxious ponder, he does have injury issues and Marincin ahead of him, Nurse not too far behind. Would you do that deal?

 

 

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118 Responses to "DOUBLE DION KABLAMMO COMING TO TOWN?"

  1. borisnikov says:

    Here’s what I just tweeted on this…

    These are his ES comparisons filtered by ESP60 and Zone Starts.
    Gardiner
    Franson
    Ehrhoff
    Gorges
    Hejda
    Weaver
    Butler
    Myers

    He’s getting killed at ES with 37% zone start but also has a +103 PDO. Last season he was basically Jan Hejda with some PP time. Is that worth 7 million?

    Risky.

    extra skater comparison

  2. IBleedOilBlu says:

    I do that deal in a heartbeat. Whatever his faults, Dion is better than what we currently have. we trade from strength (Klef), even more so if we draft Ekblad and dump Gagner…..what’s not to like? all we add is 4m in cap space? What would we have to add if we signed a free agent of the same caliber? You do this deal easily. Not sure Toronto would though. They tend to overvalue their players same as we do!

  3. Woodguy says:

    If the Oilers trade a young D + for Phaneuf then its Marincin.

    MacT loves Klef, all the verbal is so glowing its almost romantic.

    I like Phaneuf, but have always ranked him in the lower echelon of NHL 1LD.

    Brings very good offence, but suspect on the defensive side. I don’t think he’s changed that much from his days in Calgary.

    Rumour is that Wilson wants him too.

    Phaneuf playing 2LD behind Vlasic on SJS would almost be the perfect spot for him.

    I think Phaneuf would be among the best 2LD in the league, but among the lesser of the 1LD.

    I’m don’t trade Marincin or Klef unless the upgrade is clearer.

  4. slopitch says:

    “Climbing Everest with Crocs” lol

    Id also do that deal in a heartbeat. Phaneuf comes in to become our top defender. He’s also a shithead which our team needs more of. Gagner and Kadri are pretty close but Kadri also has more edge to his game and better possession numbers.

    I think we’d need to add more.

  5. LMHF#1 says:

    What’s the latest on Subban and MTL negotiating?

    Would much rather offer sheet him or make an early deal than chase Phaneuf. He could play with his buddy Eberle and hell, go acquire one of his brothers if that helps. Jordan would probably be a more realistic possibility than Malcolm.

  6. sliderule says:

    If Dion is coming to Edmonton you can book Perron going the other way.

  7. Pouzar says:

    MM for Dion? Not something I want see.

  8. Woodguy says:

    I know I was harping on “its the roster” for most of the year, and I still think that is true.

    That said, I have learned a lot about coaching influence on CF% because there were some very good case studies.

    Most centered around what ANAs CF% did after Boudreau replaced Carlyle and then what TOR’s did after Carlyle took over from Wilson.

    This graph sums it up nicely: https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/451003911113932800/photo/1

    To that end, and in DIon’s defence here is his CF% with his top 6 F team mates and his top 3 D partners in Wilson’s last year:

    PHANEUF, DION 49.8
    GUNNARSSON, CARL 49.1
    GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 52.5
    KESSEL, PHIL 52.1
    MACARTHUR, CLARKE 49.7
    KULEMIN, NIKOLAI 50.4
    CONNOLLY, TIM 47.4
    LUPUL, JOFFREY 51.2
    AULIE, KEITH 42.6
    GARDINER, JAKE 61.1

    Here’ s the same thing for Carlyle’s first year:

    PHANEUF, DION 41.9
    KULEMIN, NIKOLAI 39
    GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 41.4
    KESSEL, PHIL 41.1
    VAN_RIEMSDYK, JAMES 40.9
    BOZAK, TYLER 40.2
    GUNNARSSON, CARL 40.4
    MCCLEMENT, JAY 39.7
    HOLZER, KORBINIAN 40
    KOSTKA, MICHAEL 46

    There are some seriously steep drop offs with the same players.

    10CF% or more with a few of them.

    Players don’t go from being good together to being awful together in one year on a global scale unless something big changed.

    Carlyle’s coaching style of very little fore-check pressure and backing up to the red line and letting the opposing team wind up with free zone exits kills many baby corgis.

    Perhaps I’m being too hard on Phaneuf?

  9. Woodguy says:

    If the Oilers can somehow get Ference going the other way then two problems would be solved.

    The biggest drag on corsi (Ference) would be gone and all 3 LD positions would be upgraded.

    Phaneuf
    Marincin
    Klefbom

    is much, much better than

    Phaneuf
    Marincin/Klefbom
    Ference

    and is way better than:

    Marincin
    Ference
    Klefbom

    Ference playing on the Oilers for the next 3 years is a problem.

    Ference playing 2nd pairing on the Oilers for the next year is a disaster.

    Moving Ference + Simpson/Musil/Gernat + ? for Phaneuf would be a dream come true.

  10. RexLibris says:

    Darn it, LT. It’s already Monday, you don’t need to pile on with Phaneuf trade talk like this! :)

    Personally, no. No, I don’t do that deal.

    Matheson mentioned St. Louis looking for some scoring in the EJ today. Maybe MacTavish revisits the Blues this off-season. Giving up some scoring for one of those “big-bodied, two way players” they always boast seems like a possibility.

    Heh, if Yakupov thinks he gets the short end of the stick with Eakins he’d probably think he’d entered the Twilight Zone under Hitchcock.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Ference playing on the Oilers for the next 3 years is a problem.
    Ference playing 2nd pairing on the Oilers for the next year is a disaster.
    Moving Ference + Simpson/Musil/Gernat + ? for Phaneuf would be a dream come true.

    This is too dreamy to come true.

    But here’s a thought: how bad was the taste in Nonis/Carlyle’s mouth after that game 7 loss? Ference was injured and did not play… but is it possible that the Leafs have the classic and irrational “desire that which beat me” syndrome?

  12. DeadmanWaking says:

    Your palm is a spinor

    I like Scarlett’s demonstration better …

    Some trades are better than others.

  13. rich says:

    Wow, it’s early on Monday and we get something that really wakes us up.

    Would not be that upset if Phanuef comes to Edmonton. He pushes guys down the roster and solves a problem.

    I would be upset if it’s Marincin going the other way. Yes, he’s only played 44 games, but he’s already had a very good impact on the blueline. Positionally solid, can make a first pass, is learning from his mistakes. And the thing I like best is that long reach – you can’t teach that.

    Would hate to see Klefbom or Nurse go, but to me, Klefbom would be the one I’d send the other way because he’s a bigger risk as an NHL player (injury worries).

    Keep Nurse in juniors 1 more year as an overager and allow him the proper development curve. With Phanuef on the roster, no need to rush him up anymore.

  14. Hammers says:

    No I don’t do that deal but I would go after Spezza if an added few years is attainable . He becomes our #1 “C” . Look at the points Hemsky got playing with a real center .Going the other way would have to be Gags and probably Klef as Murray would like another Swede to play with Karlson so maybe they also give us a #3 pick .Sure McT has to get another “D” but still possible .

  15. Marcus Oilerius says:

    The way Phaneuf is fading and Marincin is developing, Marincin could be the better player – regardless of contract – by the end of next season.

  16. borisnikov says:

    Woodguy,

    If he has poor possession stats on the Leafs, what changes if he gets here? He will still be a lower teir 1D on a poor possession team.

    No one in this thread is mentioning his 7 m cap hit until he’s 37 either. Am I missing something? MacT should aim higher or for a player with a little better value.

  17. Hammers says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    The way Phaneuf is fading and Marincin is developing, Marincin could be the better player – regardless of contract – by the end of next season.

    Absolutely don’t give up Marincin .

  18. frjohnk says:

    If Phanuef is on the block, we won’t get him by offering a Marincin. The leafs are going to want a lot and by golly some team that needs a top pairing D Man will pay. The leafs will probably retain some salary.

    Some might say that Phaneuf is a second pairing D men and according to many stats he probably is. But Phaneuf is big, mean, skilled and has a big shot from the point. How many D men are there like that in the league? Not many. Oilers have none. And if we include the prospects we might have 1 ( Nurse).

    Yes, he has some warts, his decision making is not the greatest ( how many times does he go for the big hit and miss, thus giving the opposition a 2 on 1?) defensively he could be better and he might not be the greatest leader.

    If this summer he becomes an oiler, he is hands down the best oiler D man, AINEC. I would do a trade to get him, but leafs would have to retain salary

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “I was standing on the corner talkin’ to myself, I said ‘self, you rhyme like no one else’”

    Just thinking about Marincin…

    We have to remember that Nonis/Carlyle are still in charge and appear to be doubling down on last year’s experiment: get rid of possession players, put accountability on failure of intangibles, acquire more intangibles.

    They look to be doing this again.

    That’s the bright spot here. They will look at Marincin and have the same blasé attitude toward him that MacT does.

    Nurse or Klefbom would suit their ideal style of player much more.

    They might be one of the teams that would seriously value Musil.

  20. Hall Awaits says:

    I’d rather see Mac-T do something brazen and offer the 3rd overall and Sam Gagner for Roman Josi and Colin Wilson.

  21. Andy P says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “I was standing on the corner talkin’ to myself, I said ‘self, you rhyme like no one else’”

    Just thinking about Marincin…

    We have to remember that Nonis/Carlyle are still in charge and appear to be doubling down on last year’s experiment: get rid of possession players, put accountability on failure of intangibles, acquire more intangibles.

    They look to be doing this again.

    That’s the bright spot here. They will look at Marincin and have the same blasé attitude toward him that MacT does.

    Nurse or Klefbom would suit their ideal style of player much more.

    They might be one of the teams that would seriously value Musil.

    Regardless of how well Klef plays when he is healthy, we’d be holding our breath hoping he got lucky and stayed healthy. Reality is that I’d rather lean on a player with a track record of good health than one with so many games lost to injury. Klefbom might be better as a player right now, and nobody knows the future, but I’d rather bet on Marincin’s intangible of maturing fast than Klefbom’s prospect of not getting hurt when we need him most.

  22. gcw_rocks says:

    I would trade Klefbom for him without a second thought if that was the price. We are talking about adding a real NHL player for magic beans. You would have to do it.

    He is a legit top pairing defender. Not an elite one, but legit. Nurse eventually replaces Ference, and hopefully pushes Phaneuf to second pairing in a few years.

    The money is not an issue either, if they sign Petry to a reasonable deal. Top pairing should cost in the $10.5M range. Dion for 7.5M plus Petry for $3.5 to $4M is in the range. The team has some savings from the goaltending tandem (of ~$1.5M) by going with Scrivens and Fasth to cover the overage.

    But, I don’t think there is any way Phaneuf is traded for magic beans. Especially with a weak free agent market.

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Andy P: Regardless of how well Klef plays when he is healthy, we’d be holding our breath hoping he got lucky and stayed healthy. Reality is that I’d rather lean on a player with a track record of good health than one with so many games lost to injury. Klefbom might be better as a player right now, and nobody knows the future, but I’d rather bet on Marincin’s intangible of maturing fast than Klefbom’s prospect of not getting hurt when we need him most.

    I don’t get the context of your comment.

    Klef is better now than Marincin? Phaneuf? not sure which.

    either way, I don’t see him as better now than either.

  24. Zangetsu says:

    Marincin had better be untouchable for the time being. It’s risky moving klefbom, but I’d look at it. At some point some of these young dmen need to be moved, but I would rather see each of them given at least a season look see. Last thing we need is to bet on the wrong horse (think chara vs redden).

    Khadri is an improvement on gagner, but if we want to draft a centre, I don’t know that he is good option for 3line duty. I don’t know if gagner would get his fire back, but you might be able to argue he’s a fit there. I’ve always hated him though, so I’m not gonna push that argument.

    Phaneuf is a good dman, but I think toronto will want a lot for him. I’m also hesitant to make a deal for a big fish when we’re so far back. If we were on the cusp of the playoffs this year, I make the move, but what if all phaneuf does is push us into 9th next year, and his play declines. He is a physical defenceman,and who knows how long he has left. I think he would have been a good stopgap as a ufa, but moving real pieces might be too big of a risk.

    I’m hesitant, but I probably do the deal. If we could barter Klefbom into musil and somebody, that would be best. I doubt your proposed deal is enough, considering we are trading with the centre of the universe.

  25. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,

    Getting the Leafs to pick up Ference in a deal for Dion would be brilliant. From all the talk around Toronto (where I work) Carlyle seems pretty old school. Ference might be the type he would like.

    I could see them biting on Ference, Klefbom, and a prospect or pick.

    Dare to dream.

  26. Logan91 says:

    Darren Dreger: “The Leafs aren’t shopping Phaneuf. Nonis told me yesterday, the Leafs will move him but aren’t shopping him.” … ”That’s Nonis’ philosophy and always has been. He’ll move anyone if the price is right.” … ”We get caught up in semantics. Leafs aren’t shopping Gardiner and Kadri either, but teams know they’re listening. Dion’s the same” … ”I’ll tell you this, Phaneuf is considered a better defenseman in every single NHL market outside of Toronto” … ”Nonis told me yesterday that the Leafs haven’t discussed Phaneuf with anyone since the last trade deadline”

  27. flyfish1168 says:

    If this trade does materialize Dion for Gagner or whoever I feel the most important part is the Leafs needs to retain part of Dion’s salary. CAP space is to important to not be consciences of what lies ahead for us.

  28. gcw_rocks says:

    Gagner, Ference, Klefbom, and oilers first or second in 2015 for Phaneuf and Kadri?

    Getting Kadri would allow the Oilers to send this years’ pick back to junior for year or two. Then you trade Kadri to fill a hole when this years’ pick is ready for the show.

    You get rid of Ference, you get some value for Gagner, and while you give up Klefbom he is still in the magic beans category at this point.

    The question for me would be would you need to include next year’s first? That’s risky given the Oilers amazing ability to self destruct.

  29. admiralmark says:

    I can’t see the ask from Toronto simply being Klefbom OR Marincin straight up for Phaneuf. But at age 37 I don’t think either deal would be wise. The Oilers are not competing for the Cup in the next 2 years. No point in throwing out budding potential “young” 1st pairing D men for a 2 year uptick. Plus Leafs are going to ask for more anyways.

  30. Caramel Obvious says:

    gcw_rocks:
    Gagner, Ference, Klefbom, and oilers first or second in 2015 for Phaneuf and Kadri?

    Getting Kadri would allow the Oilers to send this years’ pick back to junior for year or two.Then you trade Kadri to fill a hole when this years’ pick is ready for the show.

    You get rid of Ference, you get some value for Gagner, and while you give up Klefbom he is still in the magic beans category at this point.

    The question for me would be would you need to include next year’s first? That’s risky given the Oilers amazing ability to self destruct.

    That’s a pretty terrible deal for the Oilers.

    Gagner and Klefbom for Phaneuf and Kadri is a pretty risky deal for the Oilers. I’d think long and hard about it but it’s not a sure thing. Phaneuf’s contract could easily be more toxic than Ference’s in a few years.

    Adding Ference and a first round pick to the mix is ridiculous. Even if you think Ference has negative trade value (which I don’t agree) it isn’t so much that you have to trade a first round pick in a great draft to offset.

    Bad deal.

    It’s also academic because the Leafs aren’t going to want Gagner. They are moving in the other direction.

  31. Caramel Obvious says:

    On the other hand I’m as impatient as the next guy. So if the Oilers somehow traded Gagner, Klefbom, Ference and a second round pick for Phaneuf and Kadri I’d turn around and defend it until I’m blue in the face. That would make them better next year and perhaps in the future so I’d take it.

    But if we’re being realistic I think a Clarkson deal is just as likely. I also think Carlyle would want Boyd Gordon.

  32. Ducey says:

    I wouldn’t give up much for the Dion. He has another 7 x $7 million. He is 29 now. That’s a big ticket for a guy who is going the other way. Some players are able to keep going pretty well into their 30′s, but most start to regress.

    TOR is not going to just take Marincin and make the deal. They will want the magical three for one. A high pick, a D prospect and a useful roster player. Given the high demand for high end defensemen, they will do a lot better than just Marincin elsewhere.

    I would think the Oilers would have to look at giving up their first rounder this year or next, Marincin or Klefbom, and maybe someone like Perron.

    That just creates more holes.

    And that’s too much for a guy who is likely on the decline and with that big ticket.

    Wouldn’t the smart move to be to get Gunnarson? He has all the same fancy stats, is younger, cheaper and less well known.

  33. B.C.B says:

    I see Kelfbom, Marincin, and Nurse as a good problem to have.
    By problem I mean that they are all good young LH defensemen, but they are to close together. Marincin is the closest player to being full-time in the NHL . . . by which I mean that he is full-time now, but I believe that he needs another year or two being sheltered from the toughest of toughest minutes (something that Dion would accomplish for the depth chart). Klefbom is the next closest to the NHL . . . I think he should be limited to call up next year and then given the Marincin treatment for the 2015-16 season. Nurse is the farthest away from the NHL . . . should be in the OHL next year & then in 2015-16 he should split time between triple A and the big leagues.

    Here is the problem: MacT needs to either do

    i) Trade one of the three young defensemen, aka MacT needs to identify which of the three is the weakest and trade them before the rest of the NHL figures this out.
    ii) Bring in a stopgap veteran Dman for two years to cover over the young’ns plus trade/buyout Ference contract after Klefbom makes it to the NHL full-time.

    I just can’t see how all three of the young left-handed guns on the blue is not going to be a problem in a few years. say in the 2015-16 season, Marincin will only have 1.75 years of NHL experience, and Klefbom will have 1.5 years of experience . . . Nurse will be a rookie, and Ference will be too old to skate properly. That is a recipe for losing imo.

  34. Big Dan says:

    Nobody has mentioned what Phaneuf would think. He was about to become a UFA and passed that up to sign with Toronto so he was close to the east coast (for his new bride). I would think there’s a no-trade clause in there.

    Why in the world would he want to come to Edmonton to be our newest whipping boy? Horcoff had a free ride compared to the heat Oil fans would put on Phagoof.

    That being said, Phaneuf would be a great stopgap until Nurse is ready to carry the D in a few years. Aim higher? Who else are we going to get that’s available? Markov? Ehrhoff? Wow. Phaneuf is overpaid and has his warts but he’d improve the D immeasurably.

    And being signed to age 37 is a good thing. He has stayed reasonably healthy over his career and most top end D are still going strong at that age.

    Would Ottawa do a Gagner/ prospect D for Spezza? It won’t be Klefbom – MacT has a man crush on him. I’d love that but I would think the Sens would want more. Like David Perron more (no thanks, I’ll take him over Spezza’s bad back).

    I would think TO would want Perron as well in a Phaneuf deal. I’d rather have Perron but I wonder if Perron wants to stay here. If Tambo had listened to all of us and picked up Jussi Jokinen for a song at the 2013 deadline (sigh), we’d have a 2nd line LW.

    It’s easier to find second liners than top defensemen…

  35. Caramel Obvious says:

    Spezza only has one year left on his deal. That makes him a rental. I wouldn’t trade anything of longterm value for him.

  36. Woodguy says:

    borisnikov:
    Woodguy,

    If he has poor possession stats on the Leafs, what changes if he gets here? He will still be a lower teir 1D on a poor possession team.

    No one in this thread is mentioning his 7 m cap hit until he’s 37 either. Am I missing something? MacT should aim higher or for a player with a little better value.

    Look at what I posted year to year with many of the same players in terms of CF%.

    I think Carlyle killed his corgis

  37. mumbai max says:

    Woodguy:
    If the Oilers can somehow get Ference going the other way then two problems would be solved.

    The biggest drag on corsi (Ference) would be gone and all 3 LD positions would be upgraded.

    Phaneuf
    Marincin
    Klefbom

    is much, much better than

    Phaneuf
    Marincin/Klefbom
    Ference

    and is way better than:

    Marincin
    Ference
    Klefbom

    Ference playing on the Oilers for the next 3 years is a problem.

    Ference playing 2nd pairing on the Oilers for the next year is a disaster.

    Moving Ference + Simpson/Musil/Gernat + ? for Phaneuf would be a dream come true.

    I heartily agree with every word above. I would HATE to lose Klefbom or Marincin or Perron for Phaneuf, but other bits and bobs including Ference would be fine. As for the Gagner for Kadri part of the equation, I am ambivalent, it does not seem like much of an upgrade, especially defensively. Waiting for the math guys to tell me I am wrong as they so convincingly did with Grabovski.

    NO SPEZZA!

  38. Woodguy says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    The way Phaneuf is fading and Marincin is developing, Marincin could be the better player – regardless of contract – by the end of next season.

    I don’t include Marincin in any deal.

    I don’t think you have to.

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    If you trade Klefbom (#19th overall, 20 years old) for Phaneuf (9th overall, 29 years old), you’re basically admitting as an org that a) we suck at drafting, b) we can’t develop our players to the level of other teams or c) both.

    First off, is Hall injury prone because he had a few different injuries his first couple of years in the league? I think you can reasonably give a player that tag if it’s the same area with recurring injuries (e.g. concussion history, wonky knee, etc.). That’s not the case with Klefbom. Oscar’s just had some bad luck early in his career. I don’t think it’s fair to give him the china doll tag yet.

    Secondly, trading what is supposed to be one of the lynch-pins to this rebuild to bring in another team’s problem child is exactly the kind of knee jerk, band-aid decision that bad orgs make. Never mind the fact that Phaneuf is supposedly on the outs cos he’s a me first guy and handing him the C didn’t fix that.

    Yes, we need a legitimate 1D & 2D. But that is what Klefbom, Schultz and Nurse are supposed to be? If MacT starts whale hunting again, handing out big cap hits for short-term solutions, they shorten the compete window for this core significantly.

    This Phaneuf/Spezza talk is BUYER BEWARE in the extreme.

    This entire rebuild is predicated on draft & development. Stay the course.

  40. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Big Dan: Nobody has mentioned what Phaneuf would think. He was about to become a UFA and passed that up to sign with Toronto so he was close to the east coast (for his new bride). I would think there’s a no-trade clause in there.

    As has been mentioned before, prior to this Summer when his new contract clicks in (which may or may not have a NMC/NTC), Toronto is free to trade him as they see fit.

    http://www.capgeek.com/player/442

    In other words, what Dion thinks is irrelevant if he wants to play in the NHL.

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bag of Pucks: If you trade Klefbom (#20th overall, 20 years old) for Phaneuf (9th overall, 29 years old), you’re basically admitting as an org that a) we suck at drafting, b) we can’t develop our players to the level of other teams or c) both.

    first, 19th OV.

    second, this is nonsensical at best.

  42. Younger Oil says:

    For me, as crazy as it sounds, Marincin is probably the Oiler that is the most untouchable on the team. Not because he’s the best player (although he arguably was our best defender last season), but because as good as he is, he’s still not an established defender yet, and at this point other teams probably don’t see him as more than a prospect. We’ve seen flashes of great offensive instincts, although they didn’t show up as much on the boxcars, which will improve. We need more defenders like Marincin, not less. His value in a trade is just going to keep going up in the next few years. You just don’t trade guys like that, especially on a team who has an immense shortage of quality defenders. You’re almost guaranteed to lose any trade you include him in, unless what is coming back is substantial.

  43. misfit says:

    I’d MUCH rather target Phaneuf over Spezza. I wouldn’t trade the moon for him, but I certainly think he’s a valuable player and something we need a great deal here for the immediate future.

    The dollars on the deal don’t offend me. $7M is high, but not crazy for what a 1st pairing defenseman makes in this league. And UFA’s aren’t exactly lining up at our door, so finding players more deserving of that money who might actually come here is going to be tough to do.

    The term is a bigger issue, but he’ll be 35 when it ends. There are lots of useful NHL defenders who are 35 and up, so it’s entirely possible that he makes good on his contract, especially considering the way the cap tends to climb year to year.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: first, 19th OV.

    second, this is nonsensical at best.

    Let me dumb it down for you so you can understand it.

    Klefbom was drafted with the expectation of being a top 2 D.

    Retaining drafted players through their prime makes you more cap efficient.

    Trading them for other teams’s players who carry massive cap hits (and are potentially past their prime), only because you can’t wait to go through the development curve of your own prospect is a mug’s game.

  45. Bank Shot says:

    Losing 2006-14 and THEN trading your future for a brief spike? Lordy. Just lordy. -Lowetide

    Brief spike? Phaneuf is turning 30. He’s probably got at least 5 years left in his prime and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s still good until 36-37.

    That takes us to the end of all the $6 million dollar contracts for the young forwards. Are we going to keep the powder dry until those contracts are finished? If the Oilers ever have a shot to win the Stanley it will probably be in the window of those $6 million dollar babies so they better get off the pot soon.

    Klefbom or Marincin? Done! But they are future first pairing defencemen you say?

    I wouldn’t hold my breath. Here’s a list of other defencemen the Oilers have drafted in the last 20 years-> Poti, Greene, Petry. Right.

    Marincin and Klefbom likely both have the upside of solid but unspectacular top 4 defenders. Phaneuf is better than that.

    Whoever gets the best player wins the trade. The Oilers would be getting the best player here by a longshot.

    Marincin’s save % this year was team best at 930. We will see if he is still the saviour after it normalizes next year. I’m betting his CORSI does as well.

    He seems like a decent kid, but the hype is getting way out of hand. Sheesh.

  46. borisnikov says:

    Woodguy: Look at what I posted year to year with many of the same players in terms of CF%.

    I think Carlyle killed his corgis

    I get what you are saying but what makes one assume that Eakins’ poor possession system will translate into Dion’s game and bring him back to even?

    Leaf’s poss. under Carlyle ~= to Oilers’ poss. under Eakins. Phaneuf would still be relied upon log heavy minutes against tough comp, in a very tough division, and we’d probably see similar results.

    I don’t know. maybe I’m over thinking/reacting (very possible for both to be happening) but 7×7 for a 29 year old, talented but not complete d-man seems like a mistake commitment. I’d rather MacT take aim at a couple players with smaller tickets and go the D by comity approach until one of the kids is ready to assume the 1A &1B D slots.

    The Oilers are not making the playoffs next year. Why not be patient and spend roster spots on guys that will deliver in more than 2 years rather than maybe deliver for the next 2 years and risk a big drop off in play afterwards?

  47. gcw_rocks says:

    Given Dion has size and a mean streak, you may get the added bonus of eliminating the need for Fraser if Dion comes aboard. That would be worth a mint all on its own.

  48. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bag of Pucks: Let me dumb it down for you so you can understand it.

    Klefbom was drafted with the expectation of being a top 2 D.

    Retaining drafted players through their prime makes you more cap efficient.

    Trading them for other teams’s players who carry massive cap hits (and are potentially past their prime), only because you can’t wait to go through the development curve of your own prospect is a mug’s game.

    what you actually said:

    Bag of Pucks: If you trade Klefbom (#19th overall, 20 years old) for Phaneuf (9th overall, 29 years old), you’re basically admitting as an org that a) we suck at drafting, b) we can’t develop our players to the level of other teams or c) both.

    big difference.

    trading futures for currents may well be imprudent (situation dependent obviously), but it says nothing about whether a team “sucks at drafting” or whether it can/can’t “develop” players.

    completely different questions.

  49. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Let me dumb it down for you so you can understand it.

    Klefbom was drafted with the expectation of being a top 2 D.

    Retaining drafted players through their prime makes you more cap efficient.

    Trading them for other teams’s players who carry massive cap hits (and are potentially past their prime), only because you can’t wait to go through the development curve of your own prospect is a mug’s game.

    Hall, Eberle, Perron, Gordon, Petry are in their prime today.

    RNH , Yak and Marincin are a year or so away.

    Klef a bit later.

    Nurse much later.

    To optimize the window with the forwards the Oilers need a 1LD now.

    Given the depth they have with young LHD (Marincin, Klefbom, Nurse, SImpson) they won’t sacrifice too much future by trading one.

    You try like hell to keep Marincin and Klef. I don’t think Nurse is on the table.

    Ference has proven to be past his prime so any deal that can include him is win/win.

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 1m
    #Oilers have agreed to terms with Anton Lander on a one-year contract extension | READ > http://ow.ly/wKBOx | pic.twitter.com/vb9AnKauQZ

    I haven’t been this excited since the new stable boy grew a beard.

  51. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Woodguy: I don’t include Marincin in any deal.

    I don’t think you have to.

    You wouldn’t, and I wouldn’t, but we’re not the ones making decisions here. :/

  52. mumbai max says:

    I think people underestimate how important shedding cap space will be for the Leafs. Bettman talks about a 69 million cap. The Leafs have spent 49 on 12 players.

    If they could unload Phaneuf and Clarkson, and free up 12 million dollars in cap space, the asking price might not be too high. A couple picks (not first round), a couple prospects (not Klef or Marincin) and maybe a lower end roster player (not Perron).

    I would be willing to include Shultz in the right package. How about Phaneuf, Gardiner and Clarkson for Shultz, Ference, Lander/Pitlick (insert favourite name instead) and a pick or two if necessary.

    This may seem one sided, but Carlyle would like Ference, Shultz has cachet still around the league, and the whole package is cheap for the Leafs. They save almost 7 million in cap space which they sorely need. They also lose two headaches/whipping boys in Clarkson and Gardiner. We solve 2D, gritty 2/3 winger who is due for a bounce, and replace Shultz with Gardiner. (Shultz warts grow more troublesome by the day)

    D looks like: (not parsed for L or R, indicative only)

    Phaneuf Petry
    Marincin UFA (Niskanin, Nikitin etc)
    Klefbom Gardiner
    Fedun/Nurse

  53. Woodguy says:

    Trading futures for now can be win-win.

    The best case scenario was Iginla for Nieuwendyk.

    This would be on a much different level, but may have a similar result in working out for both teams.

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    You only acquire Phaneuf in exchange for a core player, if you believe neither Klefbom or Nurse can become him.

    In doing so, it’s tacit admission that you suck at drafting and/or development.

    If you can acquire Dion for a non-core player (Perron, Gagner, etc.), it’s certainly more palatable but there’s a reason TO wants to dump him and MacT needs to keep that in mind as well.

  55. borisnikov says:

    misfit:

    The list of non-”elite” d-men that maintain their games after 30 years of age is a short one. If I had the link or info at my fingertips I’d post it but I don’t. This has been looked at before though. My bet is that he may have a couple of ‘what you’d expect from him’ seasons left but after that him playing as well as he’s paid will be highly unlikely IMO. A potential 7 million dollar #3-#5 d man (looking past the next 2 years of that contract) is an awful lot of cash.

  56. Henry says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers1m
    #Oilers have agreed to terms with Anton Lander on a one-year contract extension | READ > http://ow.ly/wKBOx| pic.twitter.com/vb9AnKauQZ

    I haven’t been this excited since the new stable boy grew a beard.

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Good for Lander!

    Are you from Kentucky?

  57. Bag of Pucks says:

    The Oilers have a LOT of holes. The problem with whale hunting in a cap system is that overpaying to fill one hole lessens your ability to fill the others (particularly in this market).

    With every passing day, it becomes more obvious to me that this fanbase doesn’t have the patience to emulate a ‘Detroit’ model.

  58. Caramel Obvious says:

    mumbai max:
    I think people underestimate the importance of shedding cap space will be for the Leafs. Bettman talks about a 69 million cap. The Leafs have spent 49 on 12 players.

    If they could unload Phaneuf and Clarkson, and free up 12 million dollars in cap space, the asking price might not be too high. A couple picks (not first round), a couple prospects (not Klef or Marincin) and maybe a lower end roster player (not Perron).

    I would be willing to include Shultz in the right package. How about Phaneuf, Gardiner and Clarkson for Shultz, Ference, Lander/Pitlick (insert favourite name instead) and a pick or two if necessary.

    This may seem one sided, but Carlyle would like Ference, Shultz has cachet still around the league, and the whole package is cheap for the Leafs. They save almost 7 million in cap space which they sorely need. They also lose two headaches/whipping boys in Clarkson and Gardiner. We solve 2D, gritty 2/3 winger who is due for a bounce, and replace Shultz with Gardiner.

    D looks like: (not parsed for L or R, indicative only)

    PhaneufPetry
    MarincinUFA (Niskanin, Nikitin etc)
    Klefbom Gardiner
    Fedun/Nurse

    I agree with the spirit of this post. Cap space is very important for Toronto and for most of the teams likely to trade for him. The cost of trading for Phaneuf is the contract. You shouldn’t have to give up much to get him.

    Taking Phaneuf and Clarkson off of Toronto’s hands should cost you nothing but a face saving late round pick.

  59. Henry says:

    I bet Lander aced his exit interview. MacT and Eakins say to themselves ‘The numbers say we should fold on him, but I don’t want to.’

  60. Henry says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    You only acquire Phaneuf in exchange for a core player, if you believe neither Klefbom or Nurse can become him.

    In doing so, it’s tacit admission that you suck at drafting and/or development.

    If you can acquire Dion for a non-core player (Perron, Gagner, etc.), it’s certainly more palatable but there’s a reason TO wants to dump him and MacT needs to keep that in mind as well.

    Bag of Pucks,

    What core player did the Flames get for Phaneuf?

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bag of Pucks: You only acquire Phaneuf in exchange for a core player, if you believe neither Klefbom or Nurse can become him.
    In doing so, it’s tacit admission that you suck at drafting and/or development.

    This is simply not the case.

    Completely different set of questions.

  62. mumbai max says:

    Caramel Obvious: I agree with the spirit of this post.Cap space is very important for Toronto and for most of the teams likely to trade for him.The cost of trading for Phaneuf is the contract.You shouldn’t have to give up much to get him.

    Taking Phaneuf and Clarkson off of Toronto’s hands should cost you nothing but a face saving late round pick.

    There seems to be a wide range of opinion about that here, but I agree it will be less than expected. I threw Shultz and Gardiner in there as an example of how the water could be muddied for the PR benefit of the Leafs. You could sub a lot of different names. Kadri/Gagner for instance.

  63. Ducey says:

    borisnikov: The list of non-”elite” d-men that maintain their games after 30 years of age is a short one. If I had the link or info at my fingertips I’d post it but I don’t. This has been looked at before though. My bet is that he may have a couple of ‘what you’d expect from him’ seasons left but after that him playing as well as he’s paid will be highly unlikely IMO. A potential 7 million dollar #3-#5 d man (looking past the next 2 years of that contract) is an awful lot of cash.

    Exactly.

    He is a good “win now” guy. Which is why a bunch of Cup contenders will line up for him (I could see Philly being all over him) and pay more than the Oilers should be giving up.

    Bringing him to the Oilers doesn’t even get them into the playoffs next year.

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Henry: Bag of Pucks,

    What core player did the Flames get for Phaneuf?

    Kind of makes my point, unless you think it’s a good idea to start emulating Jay Feaster’s mgmt practices?

  65. Ducey says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 1m#Oilers have agreed to terms with Anton Lander on a one-year contract extension | READ > http://ow.ly/wKBOx | pic.twitter.com/vb9AnKauQZI haven’t been this excited since the new stable boy grew a beard.

    Can’t be.

    I could have sworn LT traded him

    Edit: Lander, not the stableboy (and I don’t want to understand what Rom was talking about there)

  66. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    You only acquire Phaneuf in exchange for a core player, if you believe neither Klefbom or Nurse can become him.

    In doing so, it’s tacit admission that you suck at drafting and/or development.

    If you can acquire Dion for a non-core player (Perron, Gagner, etc.), it’s certainly more palatable but there’s a reason TO wants to dump him and MacT needs to keep that in mind as well.

    TOR dumped Grabovski and MacArthur. They don’t seem interested in re-signing Kulimen.

    There is three good players they are/have let go.

    Just because someone is on the block doesn’t mean they are damaged goods.

  67. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: s

    Sutter traded him.

    Feaster was not in the CAL org at the time of that trade.

  68. mumbai max says:

    On the other hand, instead of overpaying Phaneuf for 7 years, we could really overpay Markov and Niskanen for three years each, and have less long term exposure. Buy some time for the young’s.

    Move them at a trade deadline when Klefbom and/or Nurse and/or Gernat are ready.

  69. Caramel Obvious says:

    To follow up let’s say you trade Gagner, Musil, Pitlick, and a pick for Phaneuf, Clarkson, and Kadri, and then sign Kulemin you could ice the team below under a 69 million cap.

    That’s a semi-realistic trade that gives the Leafs out of the contracts they want out of and helps the Oilers in the short term. The only thing the Oilers have of value is cap space. They might as well use it.

    Team looks like this:

    CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
    CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
    FORWARDS
    Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.000m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
    David Perron ($3.813m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
    Matt Hendricks ($1.850m) / Boyd Gordon ($3.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($3.250m)
    Anton Lander ($1.250m) / Mark Arcobello ($0.600m) / Nail Yakupov ($0.925m)
    Luke Gazdic ($0.699m) / Roman Horak ($0.605m) /
    DEFENSEMEN
    Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m) / Justin Schultz ($3.500m)
    Martin Marincin ($0.730m) / Jeff Petry ($4.000m)
    Oscar Klefbom ($0.894m) / Philip Larsen ($1.150m)
    Andrew Ference ($3.250m) /
    GOALTENDERS
    Viktor Fasth ($2.900m)
    Ben Scrivens ($2.300m)
    BUYOUTS
    Eric Belanger ($0.000m)
    BURIED
    Jesse Joensuu ($0.025m)
    ——
    CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
    (estimations for 2014-15)
    SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,890,167; BONUSES: $3,340,000
    CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,109,833

  70. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Exactly.

    He is a good “win now” guy.Which is why a bunch of Cup contenders will line up for him (I could see Philly being all over him) and pay more than the Oilers should be giving up.

    Bringing him to the Oilers doesn’t even get them into the playoffs next year.

    That’s not a good reason not to get him.

    No one player puts the Oilers in the playoffs.

    They have about 4 slots on the team they need to fill with good NHL players that would push the other players down the depth chart.

    That gets the Oilers to the playoffs.

    This could fill the 1LD hole.

    Filling the 1RD hole, 1/2C hole, 2/3 RW hole and playing actual hockey players on the 4th line is the rest of the work.

  71. OilClog says:

    I’d add Spezza long before Dion and Kadri.

    Spezza would go a long long way in the development of the Nuge, that is more important then anything Dion brings.

    I’d take Dion too, Gords know we need anyone that can actually play.

  72. Caramel Obvious says:

    If the Leafs wanted Ference you could include him in the deal as well and then sign Anton Stralman for his money. That would be even better.

  73. OilClog says:

    Woodguy: That’s not a good reason not to get him.

    No one player puts the Oilers in the playoffs.

    They have about 4 slots on the team they need to fill with good NHL players that would push the other players down the depth chart.

    That gets the Oilers to the playoffs.

    This could fill the 1LD hole.

    Filling the 1RD hole, 1/2C hole, 2/3 RW hole and playing actual hockey players on the 4th line is the rest of the work.

    There’s all that, then we still have to cross our fingers and hope the coach is over his I’m smarter then everyone gig.

  74. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: That’s not a good reason not to get him.No one player puts the Oilers in the playoffs.They have about 4 slots on the team they need to fill with good NHL players that would push the other players down the depth chart.That gets the Oilers to the playoffs.This could fill the 1LD hole.Filling the 1RD hole, 1/2C hole, 2/3 RW hole and playing actual hockey players on the 4th line is the rest of the work.

    I guess my point is that Dion will be in demand. Contenders will mortgage their future by giving up some nice pieces in order to try and win a Cup in the next two years. The Oilers should not mortgage their future, because that’s all they have.

  75. Caramel Obvious says:

    OilClog:
    I’d add Spezza long before Dion and Kadri.

    Spezza would go a long long way in the development of the Nuge, that is more important then anything Dion brings.

    I’d take Dion too, Gords know we need anyone that can actually play.

    Do you read the posts? Spezza is on a one year deal. That kills his value. Unless you want to be the Islanders the maximum price for a player on an expiring deal is a second round pick.

  76. mumbai max says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    To follow up let’s say you trade Gagner, Musil, Pitlick, and a pick for Phaneuf, Clarkson, and Kadri, and then sign Kulemin you could ice the team below under a 69 million cap.

    That’s a semi-realistic trade that gives the Leafs out of the contracts they want out of and helps the Oilers in the short term.The only thing the Oilers have of value is cap space.They might as well use it.

    Team looks like this:

    CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
    CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
    FORWARDS
    Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.000m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
    David Perron ($3.813m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
    Matt Hendricks ($1.850m) / Boyd Gordon ($3.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($3.250m)
    Anton Lander ($1.250m) / Mark Arcobello ($0.600m) / Nail Yakupov ($0.925m)
    Luke Gazdic ($0.699m) / Roman Horak ($0.605m) /
    DEFENSEMEN
    Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m) / Justin Schultz ($3.500m)
    Martin Marincin ($0.730m) / Jeff Petry ($4.000m)
    Oscar Klefbom ($0.894m) / Philip Larsen ($1.150m)
    Andrew Ference ($3.250m) /
    GOALTENDERS
    Viktor Fasth ($2.900m)
    Ben Scrivens ($2.300m)
    BUYOUTS
    Eric Belanger ($0.000m)
    BURIED
    Jesse Joensuu ($0.025m)
    ——
    CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
    (estimations for 2014-15)
    SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,890,167; BONUSES: $3,340,000
    CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,109,833

    Looks good. Can we do something about Philip Larsen please! At the very least swap him out with Ference! This roster comes complete with depth on right wing and centre.

  77. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    If the Leafs wanted Ference you could include him in the deal as well and then sign Anton Stralman for his money.That would be even better.

    Too good to be true.

    That would be amazing.

  78. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: I guess my point is that Dion will be in demand.Contenders will mortgage their future by giving up some nice pieces in order to try and win a Cup in the next two years.The Oilers should not mortgage their future, because that’s all they have.

    I agree with that.

    Thing is that EDM is deep on LHD prospects so trading one doesn’t diminish the future.

  79. Yak2 says:

    I don’t know why people want to trade Marincin. Sure, he has value, but I’d rather keep him than trade him. We don’t want to make the same mistake we did with Tobias Rieder.

  80. LostBoy says:

    Um, for all the talk about moving Ference….

    Ference has a no trade clause.

    Doesn’t he?

  81. wintoon says:

    For eons fans have been begging for Oilers management to acquire a legitimate top pairing D Man. Phanuef is not elite but he is a legitimaste top pairing D Man. Now all of a sudden many fans are saying not to make a trade for Phaneuf. Simply put, beggars can’t be choosers. We are a decade long lousy team. If we have a chance to acquire a #1 or #2 D Man then MacT would be insane not to pursue this.

    All those claiming that Marincin, Klefbom and others are potential top pairing D men are right. They have potential but have not yet achieved that level. Will they? Maybe, but nothing is for certain. Others cliam that the Oilers are not going to make the playoffs for at least a couple of years. They are correct. If we do not obtain a top pairing D man we certainly won’t. If, on the other hand, Phaneuf could potentially be a significant upgrade on D, then the Oilers will have a chance at being a playoff team.
    Is Phaneuf perfect? No, but he is infinitely better than what we have now. Warts and all.

  82. oilersfan says:

    its funny yesterday Bruce garioch said that the asking price for Spezza now would be the same as for a high end rental at the trade deadline…a player who can help now, a prospect, and a first round pick. uh, did he see what LA gave up for 5 time 40+ goal scorer Marian Gaborik, a 3rd round pick.

    Now I know that was largely because all the playoff teams were cap constrained which drove down the price of all the rentals, but it seems to me that Spezza wouldn’t get any where near the asking price Garioch suggested yesterday, maybe a late or mid first round pick from someone like St Louis and a b prospect, and that’s it.

  83. Woodguy says:

    LostBoy:
    Um, for all the talk about moving Ference….

    Ference has a no trade clause.

    Doesn’t he?

    No Movement Clause actually.

  84. Zangetsu says:

    Woodguy,

    But is phaneuf the guy? I don’t see the team as being competitive while he is still a good player. 3 years from now, phaneuf will look a lot worse. I just don’t think the timelines mesh.

  85. LostBoy says:

    Woodguy: No Movement Clause actually.

    Well, right, a NTC on steroids.

    And he would waive this to go to Toronto because…?

  86. striker says:

    Great news about Lander signing. Happy for him and happy the Oilers didn’t give up on him prematurely. I’m assuming this has to be a one way deal.

  87. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: That’s not a good reason not to get him.

    No one player puts the Oilers in the playoffs.

    They have about 4 slots on the team they need to fill with good NHL players that would push the other players down the depth chart.

    That gets the Oilers to the playoffs.

    This could fill the 1LD hole.

    Filling the 1RD hole, 1/2C hole, 2/3 RW hole and playing actual hockey players on the 4th line is the rest of the work.

    I respectfully disagree.

    The Oilers need a 2C, a 3LW and at least a 1RD, if not also a 1LD.

    By my calculations, and with the support of the PHWA, Alexander Ovechkin checks off all those boxes.

    Gagner, Yakupov and an autographed 8×10 of Omark in mid-spin-o-rama ought to be enough.

  88. Gerta Rauss says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: In other words, what Dion thinks is irrelevant if he wants to play in the NHL

    Scott Howson probably thought the same thing when he traded for Jeff Carter

    I would like some kind of indication from Phaneuf that he wants to play in Edmonton for the next 7 years if a deal is pending

  89. Marcus Oilerius says:

    The last time Phaneuf was traded, it was Phaneuf, spare parts Sjostrom and Aulie, for Stajan and spare parts Hagman, White and Mayers. Phaneuf also didn’t have an anvil for a contract at the time.

    I think Gagner or at most Perron should get the deal done. Hopefully we can sucker Toronto into taking Ference along with them.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Zangetsu:
    Woodguy,

    But is phaneuf the guy? I don’t see the team as being competitive while he is still a good player. 3 years from now, phaneuf will look a lot worse. I just don’t think the timelines mesh.

    I am unsure.

    I do know that today he’d be the best 1LD on the roster and probably capable as well.

  91. Woodguy says:

    LostBoy: Well, right, a NTC on steroids.

    And he would waive this to go to Toronto because…?

    No idea.

    We are spit-balling and blue-skying.

  92. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: I respectfully disagree.

    The Oilers need a 2C, a 3LW and at least a 1RD, if not also a 1LD.

    By my calculations, and with the support of the PHWA, Alexander Ovechkin checks off all those boxes.

    Gagner, Yakupov and an autographed 8×10 of Omark in mid-spin-o-rama ought to be enough.

    This all day long.

  93. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss: Scott Howson probably thought the same thing when he traded for Jeff Carter

    I would like some kind of indication from Phaneuf that he wants to play in Edmonton for the next 7 years if a deal is pending

    Sage advice.

  94. Gerta Rauss says:

    I said in the Gardiner thread that if we’re dealing with Toronto I’d ask for the rights to Kulemin as a throw in on any deal. Locking up Kulemin may get you Grabo as well.

    I’d be interested in Phaneuf if the price is right, but I’m not breaking the bank to get him. I might do the Gagner and Klefbom deal, but I’m not that enamored with Kadri myself.

  95. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Gerta Rauss: Scott Howson probably thought the same thing when he traded for Jeff Carter

    I would like some kind of indication from Phaneuf that he wants to play in Edmonton for the next 7 years if a deal is pending

    Sure, he can pout and at the extreme fail to report… but like I said, If he wants to play in the NHL he’ll have to play for the team that acquires him.

    And, if it doesn’t work out — the two sides can’t make nice — the team that acquires him can trade him. In that short span his value won’t decrease radically.

    It’s a concern, but a very minor one IMO.

  96. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 3m
    Lander’s one-way deal is worth $600,000. Exact same as Arcobello.Good deal for Edmonton and Lander gets one-way. #Oilers

  97. Gerta Rauss says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor3m
    Lander’s one-way deal is worth $600,000. Exact same as Arcobello.Good deal for Edmonton and Lander gets one-way.#Oilers

    I wonder if the Lander deal is the result of the news we heard re: Horak and the KHL- seems reasonable to assume that

  98. Ducey says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: cap geek updated Dion’s clauses:http://capgeek.com/player/442

    Well, that should end any speculation about a trade to EDM

  99. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ducey: Well, that should end any speculation about a trade to EDM

    I noticed that too…the good news is that Nonis would have to ask him to waive prior to any Oilers deal, so we’d know if he wants to play here or not.

  100. bendelson says:

    Spit-balling and blue-skying!

    I have questions:

    Given the obvious concerns about the length of term of Phaneuf’s contract, does Markov for 2 yrs at 15M offer a better path forward? This allows immediate help without sacrificing Marincin or Klefbom.

    How much does Kulimen cost as a UFA? Does 3.6M/4 yrs get it done?

    If the Oilers are to take Draisatl (and insert him as 2C in the fall of 2015), does doubling-down on another defensive C make any sense? Goc?

  101. Doomoil says:

    So who’s playing where now?

    We have RNH, Arco, Lander, Gordon, Gagner.

  102. Doomoil says:

    bendelson,

    How much Kulemin costs might be how much Kulemin + Grabo costs.

  103. Gerta Rauss says:

    bendelson:
    Spit-balling and blue-skying!

    I have questions:

    Given the obvious concerns about the length of term of Phaneuf’s contract, does Markov for 2 yrs at 15M offer a better path forward?This allows immediate help without sacrificing Marincin or Klefbom.

    Yes, it is a better path imo, but given Edmonton’s track record acquiring UFA’s, well….

  104. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    I’m not sure what ultimately transpires, but give MacT a little credit here. He spoke about players jarring loose because of missed expectations of the front running clubs. Names like Spezza and Phaneuf aren’t D level chumps. Real, bona-fide, proven NHL’ers with more to give. This is the optionality MacT needs out there to do some bolder moves. We do have some leverage here to try and accelerate the progression of the team. I’m happy its beginning to loosen up a little on different options to consider. Real hockey trades might be in our future.

  105. bendelson says:

    Doomoil: bendelson, How much Kulemin costs might be how much Kulemin + Grabo costs.

    So what does Kulimen/Grabo cost Doomoil?

    As Gerta mentioned, trading for Kulemin’s rights and landing him early may just get you halfway to Grabo already – which is a different look than the Goc suggestion, but has some merit no doubt.

    I would thnk twice about offering Grabo 4 years however…

  106. Gerta Rauss says:

    bendelson:

    I would thnk twice about offering Grabo 4 years however…

    I guess it might depend on who we draft…if it’s the German kid, yeah, I want to make sure we had room for him at 2C eventually. If we draft Ekblad…

    At any rate, too many NHL centers would be a nice problem to have

  107. Andy P says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s the bright spot here. They will look at Marincin and have the same blasé attitude toward him that MacT does.

    Hi Rom,
    Sorry about the lack of clarity, I was agreeing with your statement “That’s the bright spot here. They will look at Marincin and have the same blasé attitude toward him that MacT does.”
    I took that to mean that they would likely prefer Klefbom to Marincin.

    I would also prefer that MacT traded Klefbom over Marincin, because Klefbom seems to be injury prone to me, Marincin hopefully less so. I’d always prefer the less injury prone player in the playoffs, and I’m not sure if any skill advantage Klefbom might have would be enough to the high risk of losing him in the playoffs when things get rougher.

    Is that better?

  108. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Andy P: Hi Rom,
    Sorry about the lack of clarity, I was agreeing with your statement “That’s the bright spot here. They will look at Marincin and have the same blasé attitude toward him that MacT does.”
    I took that to mean that they would likely prefer Klefbom to Marincin.

    I would also prefer that MacT traded Klefbom over Marincin, because Klefbom seems to be injury prone to me, Marincin hopefully less so. I’d always prefer the less injury prone player in the playoffs, and I’m not sure if any skill advantage Klefbom might have would be enough to the high risk of losing him in the playoffs when things get rougher.

    Is that better?

    yes. makes a lot more sense.

    I’m not going to research it, but I’m a little skeptical of weighing injury history so highly.

    [I'm not in anyway saying it's a non-factor… it's a big one]

    But, it seems to me that a sizeable number of hockey players have had serious injuries along the way from jr to the NHL.

    My preference for Marincin is twofold: better track record of success (he’s old mind you and the record isn’t much longer, basically a year of pro more); and wider range of skills (Klefbom seems to lack offensive abilities).

  109. godot10 says:

    Phaneuf has played most of his career on the right side, not on the left. He plays better on the right side too than on the left historically.

    Ference has a full NMC, so he isn’t going anymore.

    I think a Ference Phaneuf pairing would work.

    Caroina 2006 model for the D. Three more balanced pairs.

    Ference Phaneuf
    Marincin Petry
    Klefbom Schultz
    Matt Greene

    The problem is getting Phaneuf without giving up Marincin or Klefbom.

    My fear is that Petry is unsigned.

    I can’t think of a trade scenario that I really like.

    Phaneuf probably wants a playoff team. So the Oilers are very unlikely to be on his list.

  110. borisnikov says:

    Interesting tidbit,

    Phaneuf will have grossed $111 million dollars in his career once his new contract is complete.

    That’s a Double-Dion-Kablammo!

  111. Jordan says:

    godot10:
    Phaneuf has played most of his career on the right side, not on the left.He plays better on the right side too than on the left historically.

    Did not know that – thanks for the info.

    godot10:
    I think a Ference Phaneuf pairing would work.

    Caroina 2006 model for the D.Three more balanced pairs.

    Ference Phaneuf
    Marincin Petry
    Klefbom Schultz
    Matt Greene

    God that D scares me. In much the same way our D last year scared me. Sure, it’s bigger & tougher, but having Dion carry Andrew doesn’t make this team that much better, or make them a 1st pairing. Getting another player to play with Phaneuf could make it quite strong, but then you’ve pushed Klefbom either in the 7 D-man role or back to injury call-up & #1 D in OKC – better for development maybe, but I don’t see MacT pushing him back again.

    godot10:
    The problem is getting Phaneuf without giving up Marincin or Klefbom.

    This is true of any trade the Oilers make – how do you get the player you want and keep the best prospects? The answer is usually not #causeoilers

    godot10:
    My fear is that Petry is unsigned.

    Yours and every other thinking man’s Oilers fan.

    godot10:
    Phaneuf probably wants a playoff team.So the Oilers are very unlikely to be on his list.

    Hard to know – yet I think there are a lot of people who recognize that this team is a lot closer to competing for a spot than their record this year shows. Picking up a player like Dion could do a lot to make this team better while he’s on the ice. All of us know that the biggest issues with this team remain cycle-breaking, transition & the PP. Dion does all those things well.

    He’d instantly be the best defenseman the Oilers have had since Pronger left. We all know how much of a story is was when Ferrence came back to his home town – Imagine what it would look like for a player so many people here loathed as a Flame – home town boy makes good indeed.

  112. PunjabiOil says:

    Brief spike? Phaneuf is turning 30. He’s probably got at least 5 years left in his prime and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s still good until 36-37.

    That takes us to the end of all the $6 million dollar contracts for the young forwards. Are we going to keep the powder dry until those contracts are finished? If the Oilers ever have a shot to win the Stanley it will probably be in the window of those $6 million dollar babies so they better get off the pot soon.

    Klefbom or Marincin? Done! But they are future first pairing defencemen you say?

    I wouldn’t hold my breath. Here’s a list of other defencemen the Oilers have drafted in the last 20 years-> Poti, Greene, Petry. Right.

    Marincin and Klefbom likely both have the upside of solid but unspectacular top 4 defenders. Phaneuf is better than that.

    Whoever gets the best player wins the trade. The Oilers would be getting the best player here by a longshot.

    Marincin’s save % this year was team best at 930. We will see if he is still the saviour after it normalizes next year. I’m betting his CORSI does as well.

    He seems like a decent kid, but the hype is getting way out of hand. Sheesh.

    Agreed with everything here said by bankshot.

    Furthermore, Phaneuf doesn’t turn 30 until next April. Yes, the contract may be a problem in years 6 or 7 of the contract, but it:

    a. Also may not
    b. The cap may be significantly higher by then.

    Was discussing this with Speeds on twitter yesterday. I’m in favor of even giving up the 2015 1st round pick if necessary for Phaneuf because:

    1. Top pairing defenceman like Phaneuf rarely come on the market. When they do, you have to be aggressive. See San Jose (Boyle, Burns)
    2. If you don’t acquire him, you risk (as evidenced since the summer of 2006) of coming up empty handed at the end of the summer, still without top 4 defencemen.
    3. It’s time to stop wasting the bullets on Taylor Hall’s value contract.

    He’s a local boy, fits a team need, and the cost to acquire him likely isn’t unreasonable.

    Yes, they should acquire him. Klefbom/Maincin, while have shown some good things, aren’t going to move the dial forward. Giving up one for a clear upgrade is not unreasonable at all.

    It just isn’t.

  113. speeds says:

    PunjabiOil:
    He’s a local boy, fits a team need, and the cost to acquire him likely isn’t unreasonable.

    Yes, they should acquire him.Klefbom/Maincin, while have shown some good things, aren’t going to move the dial forward.Giving up one for a clear upgrade is not unreasonable at all.

    It just isn’t.

    It’s not entirely clear how much better he is than Marincin right now, even less clear what the difference will be in 2 years. The one thing that’s clear is that Phaneuf makes 6M more than MM next year, after that Marincin is an RFA. Personally, I would roll the dice with MM and 6 mil vs trading for Phaneuf. I think it’s more likely EDM would look back and regret that deal than look back and think it was a great deal, but that isn’t to say I think there’s absolutely zero chance the deal could theoretically work out.

  114. Mr DeBakey says:

    The thing I didn’t see suggested anywhere here is the
    Oilers trading their 3rd Overall plus something for
    Toronto’s 8th Overall plus Phaneuf.

  115. russ99 says:

    Phaneuf would be a great fit here and teach the kids to play D the right way.

    But no on trading Marincin.

    If we’re moving a young D (folly, IMO) – how about Klefbom for Phaneuf, a second round pick and a prospect?

  116. Edmonton Oilers Summer Addition Wishlist | Oil! the blog says:

    […] Oilers fans cringe at the prospect of Double-Dion Phaneuf suiting up in the City of Champions, but I’m with Lowetide in thinking that he would instantly make this team […]

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