MARCO ROY INVOLVED IN A QMJHL TRADE

I’ve been wondering about Marco Roy lately. He could sign with the team for 2014-15, but I’m not certain it’s a good idea. His injuries this season slowed him down, and I think he might be better served dominating junior for a season.

berube 1berube 2This afternoon, he was traded within the QMJHL. The Quebec Remparts seem to be similar in quality to BB (39 wins, to Blainville’s 41 this past season) and one hopes Roy can get some traction in his new town. The Remparts are also Memorial Cup hosts in 2015.

So, we can probably conclude:

  • Roy will turn 20 in the QMJHL
  • Not go the Pitlick/Hamilton route, which was a disaster.

The strangest thing about it? Roy is about two months older than Chase, who can’t turn pro.

  • Roy evens in draft year: 65GP, 16-25-41 .631
  • Roy power play in draft year: 65GP, 13-13-26 .400
  • Roy evens 13-14: 39GP, 8-16-24 .615
  • Roy power play 13-14: 39GP, 5-5-10 .256

I think it might be very good for him in Quebec City, especially if Roy can get some power-play time.

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34 Responses to "MARCO ROY INVOLVED IN A QMJHL TRADE"

  1. speeds says:

    The one thing I would disagree with is “Not go the Pitlick/Hamilton route, which was a disaster.”

    Not that that route worked out well for those 2, but I don’t think you can blame that on the route itself. Just because it didn’t work for those two doesn’t mean it wouldn’t work for Roy.

  2. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    The one thing I would disagree with is “Not go the Pitlick/Hamilton route, which was a disaster.”

    Not that that route worked out well for those 2, but I don’t think you can blame that on the route itself.Just because it didn’t work for those two doesn’t mean it wouldn’t work for Roy.

    Hmm. Based on his early injury history, I’m satisfied with standing firm on my original comment. There’s zero need to rush this fellow, and the Oilers haven’t had success in this area. I haven’t seen a study on Oct-Nov-Dec 19 year olds in pro, but the anecdotal evidence Oiler fans experienced is good enough for me.

  3. OilClog says:

    The only option is allowing him to dominate junior next season, signing him breaks him.

  4. Ice Sage says:

    “I think he might be better served dominating junior for a season”

    All bona fide prospects must do this to move up the development food chain, especially as a so-called ‘skill guy’. If he can’t bring it as a 19 y.o. in the Q, well… at least Moroz

  5. VanOil says:

    I am glad Roy has a guaranteed shot at the Memorial Cup. I guess he would have be in line for an OKC callup if they made the playoffs anyways.

    Developing a safe harbor landing spot in the NHL where offensive rookies can flourish seems beyond the Oilers. Having a ‘shut down’ third line and a ‘knuckle dragging’ 4th providing ‘energy’ to the other team is not a way to win hockey games.

    Gordon Kulemin/Arco Rookie
    Lander Hendricks Joensuu/Arco

    Or hire Malhotra to help win draws on the 4th line. Possible but unlikely because Oilers coaches and management feels emasculated if they don’t dress a goon or two on the 4th line rendering it useless.

  6. speeds says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m not saying Roy should definitely move to the AHL, I’m saying that the fact it doesn’t seem to have worked for Pitlick/Hamilton thusfar doesn’t necessarily mean it wouldn’t be good for Roy.

  7. speeds says:

    The other thing is, if you sign him, he’s signed. If you send him back to junior unsigned, there’s always a chance (and maybe a small one) he opts to re-enter the draft.

  8. Racki says:

    Interesting. I was just wondering about him today too with all the drafting a center talk. I hope he gets a lot of opportunity. It doesn’t look like there is much in the way of competition at C there, but I don’t know.

  9. OilClog says:

    speeds:
    The other thing is, if you sign him, he’s signed.If you send him back to junior unsigned, there’s always a chance (and maybe a small one) he opts to re-enter the draft.

    I could see that if he dominated this past season and wasn’t injury plagued… Injury. Make sure he’s hungry, don’t feed him full of money to make him feel good.

  10. David says:

    This is very good news. With the Injury trouble he’s had, it’s definately best to take it slow. Roy was our best prospect at rookie camp last year in my mind. He’s a player we need to develop properly and if we do, he’ll be a very good second line player. Our pipeline is starting to look mighty good.

  11. David says:

    I think the oilers killed it last draft. We keep doing that, and we’ll never have to go through another rebuild.

  12. dawgtoy says:

    I can’t see any reason why a change of scenery can hurt at this point. The Remparts likely see that a healthy Roy can bring point per game production, with the potential for far more. Plus he’s guaranteed to play in the Memorial cup. Love it!

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki:
    Interesting. I was just wondering about him today too with all the drafting a center talk. I hope he gets a lot of opportunity. It doesn’t look like there is much in the way of competition at C there, but I don’t know.

    I think the word on MR is that he’s going to play wing long term. But, that’s hazy memory intruding here.

  14. gcw_rocks says:

    Pitlick had serious injuries in his draft plus one year and should have stayed in junior. He never worked out the rough edges in his game and i think that hurt him pro.

    Leaving Roy in junior is a smart move.

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One thing about Roy I didn’t know that I learned today…

    He’s location-tagging his tweets and he’s in Alberta. Apparently he’s in country right now training with the team or some such.

    I think that is great news. Shows dedication from the player and team.

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pitlick’s problem wasn’t just that he went pro too early. The guy went from NCAA, to WHL to the AHL in 3 seasons… so consistency of message, even in relation to league!

  17. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think the word on MR is that he’s going to play wing long term. But, that’s hazy memory intruding here.

    I think I recall that too. I only thought he was center still because it showed center on HockeyDB, but I know they pretty much never update that once it’s entered (case in point, Jordan Eberle). But I seem to recall that he was going to be wing. Guess the wait continues… not that I was holding my breath on him being this team’s #2C or anything.

  18. haters says:

    Watched him a lot in the rookie tourney last year in kelowna, was by far the most noticeable forward, shifty, good speed, and high hockey iq.
    I think him and chase are becoming my favorite forward prospects

  19. Hammers says:

    speeds: The other thing is, if you sign him, he’s signed. If you send him back to junior unsigned, there’s always a chance (and maybe a small one) he opts to re-enter the draft.

    That should be a bit of a concern but there is room in the 50 and more space now with Larsen & Halak both going to Russia .An extra year of junior after an injury filled year is a smart decision .

  20. bsmart says:

    Lowetide: Hmm. Based on his early injury history, I’m satisfied with standing firm on my original comment. There’s zero need to rush this fellow, and the Oilers haven’t had success in this area. I haven’t seen a study on Oct-Nov-Dec 19 year olds in pro, but the anecdotal evidence Oiler fans experienced is good enough for me.

    I have to agree with LT that best scenario for a player coming back from injury would be to take on easier comp to get some confidence back and gain strength to avoid further injury.

  21. bsmart says:

    haters,

    Interesting how a full season has changed the outlook of both players

  22. Bank Shot says:

    Pitlick and Hamilton’s problems appear to be that they just aren’t good enough.

    Looks like Roy is suffering from a similar fate. Spending an overage year in junior is like the kiss of death for a prospect.

    I will cheer for him to succeed, but the stats say you can pretty much close the book on him now as a future NHLer.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot:
    Pitlick and Hamilton’s problems appear to be that they just aren’t good enough.

    Looks like Roy is suffering from a similar fate. Spending an overage year in junior is like the kiss of death for a prospect.

    I will cheer for him to succeed, but the stats say you can pretty much close the book on him now as a future NHLer.

    I`d dispute that, Roy had a helluva run early in the season and battled injuries after that. As for overage year, does he count as a 20 year old? Doesn’t turn 20 until the season is well underway.

  24. Numenius says:

    Bank Shot:
    Pitlick and Hamilton’s problems appear to be that they just aren’t good enough.

    Looks like Roy is suffering from a similar fate. Spending an overage year in junior is like the kiss of death for a prospect.

    I will cheer for him to succeed, but the stats say you can pretty much close the book on him now as a future NHLer.

    Huh? Roy’s injuries this year are enough to explain why he should stay in junior next year and why staying there does not significantly take away from his likely success.

  25. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: As for overage year, does he count as a 20 year old? Doesn’t turn 20 until the season is well underway

    Well it does say he will in the Berube tweets you posted.
    ;-)

  26. Racki says:

    Lowetide: I`d dispute that, Roy had a helluva run early in the season and battled injuries after that. As for overage year, does he count as a 20 year old? Doesn’t turn 20 until the season is well underway.

    I could be wrong, but I believe he does. I believe that the cut off is December 31 each year, so if you’re 20 by the end of the year (which he would be) you’re considered an overager. I’ll do some Googling and see if I can confirm that.

    That’s the cut off date for the NHL-CHL agreement, and also for playing in the World Juniors too, so I’d imagine the overage rule is the same.

  27. Bank Shot says:

    Roy is a 94 which makes him AHL eligible. I assume that makes him a WHL overager.

    If Mantha stayed another year in the Q that would be weird and he’s just a couple of months older.

    There were 12 CHL forwards taken in the second round in 2013. Roy was one of three that were older and born in 94. Of the 12 forwards, 8 had better ppg.

    Roy is off the pace. I would say that’s a pretty bad sign. When I look at former Oilers picks who made it to the NHL they pretty much universally show progression from year to year before making the jump to the NHL.

  28. Racki says:

    Bank Shot:
    Roy is a 94 which makes him AHL eligible. I assume that makes him a WHL overager.

    If Mantha stayed another year in the Q that would be weird and he’s just a couple of months older.

    There were 12 CHL forwards taken in the second round in 2013. Roy was one of three that were older and born in 94. Of the 12 forwards, 8 had better ppg.

    Roy is off the pace. I would say that’s a pretty bad sign. When I look at former Oilers picks who made it to the NHL they pretty much universally show progression from year to year before making the jump to the NHL.

    I think you might need to look at it a bit differently, perhaps at guys closer to where Roy is picked, and maybe slightly after. Is it fair to compare a guy drafted 31st (for example) to a guy drafted 56th? Honest question. I am not saying one way or another. Only 3 guys drafted after him in round 2 were forwards though, and really only Bertuzzi has the better ppg, and it’s in a very small sample size.

    I’d be more curious to see his pace against some comparable NHLers maybe (Their same age numbers).

    Not saying there is or isn’t a potential issue there.

  29. Racki says:

    FYI, I just looked up Greg Chase… he missed the cutoff to play in the AHL by one day. Funny. January 1st birthday.

  30. Bank Shot says:

    Racki: I think you might need to look at it a bit differently, perhaps at guys closer to where Roy is picked, and maybe slightly after. Is it fair to compare a guy drafted 31st (for example) to a guy drafted 56th? Honest question. I am not saying one way or another. Only 3 guys drafted after him in round 2 were forwards though, and really only Bertuzzi has the better ppg, and it’s in a very small sample size.

    I’d be more curious to see his pace against some comparable NHLers maybe (Their same age numbers).

    Not saying there is or isn’t a potential issue there.

    I think after the pick is made its okay to compare prospects anywhere from 2nd round to the end of the draft to each other. They are all competing for the same jobs after all. It’s a little difficult to find many comparables within a small range of picks as the sample size disappears.

    The one thing the guys that make the NHL usually seem to have in common is that they seem to improve year over year. Dramatically in many cases.

    If you looks at the forwards who are NHL regulars drafted from the CHL in the second round between 2004-2007 you have the following players.

    Neal
    Raymond
    Bickell
    Comeau
    Dubinsky
    Bolland
    Lucic
    Mattias
    McGinn
    Simmonds
    Spaling
    Tangradi

    Some of these guys started out behind Roy production wise, but those who did made giant leaps and just kept on improving each season after. Dubinsky is the only guy that produced less ppg in his post draft year compared to his draft year. Raymond is the only one out of the group that did not get into at least one NHL game in his 20 year old season as he was drafted as a “true overager”. Roy won’t even be in a position to be called up next season which means he is already lagging behind the pace of those who made it.

    The common theme among almost every forward that makes the NHL and sticks from what I can tell is a rapid and continued ascent. Roy isn’t showing rapid ascent. To me that makes him more suspect than prospect at this point. Its harsh but I think its fair. There are 200 guys picked in the draft every year. It’s not good enough to run in place. You have to outpace almost everyone else to make it.

    I want Roy to succeed but it seems like the odds are already against him. He’s not tracking like Chase for example. Chase’s record looks more like the start of an NHL curve.

  31. spoiler says:

    SPOILER’S COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC OFF-SEASON GAME PLAN:

    I really have a hard time believing that Letang won’t be shopped prior to July 1.

    The stroke, the down year, the impending massive cap hit… this is asking for a lot of trust from a new GM who will be limited doing other things without the cap flexibility trading Letang would bring.

    While he was out of the line-up, their defense managed along fairly well. Would they rather have the space to give Niskanen the raise he will want, and hang onto Jokinen, and chase a Vanek or Moulson?

    If it turns out that they will shop Letang, they won’t want a lot of cap back or it defeats the purpose. They probably would want a young, also RHSing defenseman with offensive upside, and from a team that can not only afford the difference in salaries, but would also want to, since teams usually want to hang onto their young cheap dmen who can play.

    If all that is the case, and there are of course different philosophies that can make it not the case, then Justin Schultz would be the ideal target for the Pens.

    And if you can swing that trade, Schultz for Letang (with perhaps some ancillary parts), does it become easier to convince Stastny to sign here?

    I think the oilpatch would look a whole lot more attractive to Mr. Stastny if there was a bona fide first pairing dman living in the neighbourhood.

    Then trade Gagner to NYI for Nelson… sign Gilbert and Winnik and run with:

    HALL STAS EBER
    NELS NUGE YAKU
    PERR GORD WINN
    LAND ARCO HEND

    MARI PETR
    FERE LETA
    KLEF GILB

    …Without this draft’s bonus baby, that’s $7-8M in cap space.

    Stastny, Winnik and Nelson all add size, strength and reach to the forward crew. Gilbert and Letang provide veteran stability to all the big physical rookie LHDmen we are introducing over the next couple of years. Both can skate or pass the puck out of trouble, which they are going to need to do.

    Rotate one of the L2 wingers down the line up for away games if matchups aren’t working out.

    It’s all a pipe dream, I know, and would represent an astonishing off-season by the GM, but it starts with a simple phone call to Pitt’s new GM and making a pitch that I think would be seriously considered.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Roy began his Q season 8, 2-11-13 and then injuries derailed him. Surely we can assume that, if healthy, he would have posted stronger numbers last season.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/11/3-prospect-marco-roy.html

  33. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m down.

  34. Pouzar says:

    Dare to dream…

    “On Wednesday, the Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson wrote that the Oilers “are almost certainly looking at” Pittsburgh defenceman Deryk Engelland. “

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