NHLE’S FOR 1st RD PROSPECTS (2014 DRAFT)

We’ve run the numbers a couple of times, but only at the top. This is a fascinating draft because there’s a lot of pretty terrific offensive players available in this draft. There’s no Taylor Hall, but there are some good prospects here. I am using Rob Vollman’s numbers this year, but there are a few missing items (including USHL), so for this post I’ll revert to Desjardins and established NHLE’s.

2014 DRAFT ELIGIBILES NHL EQUIVALENCIES (per 82gp)

  1. Sam Reinhart (WHL) 15-28-43
  2. Kevin Fiala (SHL) 11-30-41
  3. Leon Draisaitl (WHL) 15-25-40
  4. Sam Bennett (OHL) 16-23-39
  5. Nikolaj Ehlers (QMJHL) 18-20-38
  6. Robby Fabri (OHL) 19-18-37
  7. Michael Dal Colle (OHL) 14-21-35
  8. Nikolai Goldobin (OHL) 14-21-35
  9. Sonny Milano (USHL) 12-23-35
  10. Ivan Barbashev (QMJHL) 12-21-33
  11. Josh Ho-Sang (OHL) 12-19-31
  12. Nick Ritchie (OHL) 16-14-30
  13. Brendan Perlini (OHL) 14-16-30
  14. Nikita Scherbak (WHL) 11-19-30
  15. Alex Tuch (USHL) 11-16-27
  16. Jake Virtanen (WHL) 16-9-25
  17. Nick Schmaltz (USHL) 7-18-25
  18. Jared McCann (OHL) 10-14-24
  19. Connor Bleackley (WHL) 10-14-24
  20. Dylan Larkin (USHL) 14-8-22
  21. David Pastrnak (Allsvenskan) 8-12-20
  22. William Nylander (SHL) 3-17-20 (TOI worries)
  23. Kasperi Kapanen (SML) 8-8-16 (TOI worries)
  24. Adrian Kempe (SHL) 7-8-15 (TOI worries)
  25. Jakub Vrana (CZE) 4-4-8 (TOI worries)

Certainly a different look, I’d caution sample size on Fiala but he’s clearly an excellent player. I also think there are 4 Euro’s at the bottom who should rank higher, but we don’t know TOI. If a kid like Nylander is doing this in 8 minutes, he might be the best offensive player in the draft.

That said, you have to like Reinhart, Bennett, Draisaitl, Ehlers and Fabbri in this draft. That kid Fabbri keeps showing up.

 DEFENSEMEN

  1.  Aaron Ekblad (OHL) 10-12-22
  2. Julius Honka (WHL) 6-16-22
  3. Roland McKeown (OHL) 4-13-17
  4. Haydn Fleury (WHL) 3-13-16
  5. Josh Jacobs (USHL) 2-7-9

This is very interesting. Honka is being mentioned as a late first rounder, Ekblad as possibly No. 1 overall a month from now. They have different skill sets, but for those pushing Fleury as the only other option behind Ekblad, maybe look at Honka one more time.

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37 Responses to "NHLE’S FOR 1st RD PROSPECTS (2014 DRAFT)"

  1. blainer says:

    Just Curious…would you trade Yak for Ekblad straight up if the panthers are game?

  2. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    To be honest this looks more accurate to me.

    I still haven’t come across the justification from Vollman (mind you I haven’t read the book, so my bad) on why he has the OHL so far ahead of the other 2 CHL leagues.

    I don’t get gifting Ritchie and Perlini and all the others that kind of cushion.

    ———–
    Pronman looks like a fucking god with that early read on Fiala by these numbers. man!

    ———–
    The bottom of the list is really hard to read and thanks for putting up the caveats (TOI worries).

    ———
    That Schmaltz is an interesting player. Checked in on him a bit when Muir was playing him in the USHL playoffs. The write ups were all pretty convincing.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    To be honest this looks more accurate to me.

    I still haven’t come across the justification from Vollman (mind you I haven’t read the book, so my bad) on why he has the OHL so far ahead of the other 2 CHL leagues.

    I don’t get gifting Ritchie and Perlini and all the others that kind of cushion.

    ———–
    Pronman looks like a fucking god with that early read on Fiala by these numbers. man!

    ———–
    The bottom of the list is really hard to read and thanks for putting up the caveats (TOI worries).

    ———
    That Schmaltz is an interesting player. Checked in on him a bit when Muir was playing him in the USHL playoffs. The write ups were all pretty convincing.

    I can help. Vollman’s chapter shows the OHL really kicking ass in recent seasons. One of the things people are critical about re Desjardins is that it doesn’t adjust. One of the MAJOR trends is the OHL putting the boots to the rest of the CHL, Tavares, Hall etc beat the tar of of the OHL NHLE

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    http://www.whl.ca/roster/show/id/14586

    5’11″ 175

    and all the NHL decision makers scattered.

  5. serum114 says:

    LT: You think Virtanen’s surgery causes him to slide a bit? Out 4-6 months post-shoulder surgery, hell, he sounds like an Oiler already.

  6. Lowetide says:

    serum114:
    LT: You think Virtanen’s surgery causes him to slide a bit? Out 4-6 months post-shoulder surgery, hell, he sounds like an Oiler already.

    Don’t think so, unless the shoulder problem is a bigger issue than just the surgery. Teams might hope he falls, but I don’t think he will.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I can help. Vollman’s chapter shows the OHL really kicking ass in recent seasons. One of the things people are critical about re Desjardins is that it doesn’t adjust. One of the MAJOR trends is the OHL putting the boots to the rest of the CHL, Tavares, Hall etc beat the tar of of the OHL NHLE

    thanks.

    GD’s NHLE’s suffer for their rigidity. It certainly seems unlikely all three leagues even out. My question is the severity of the correction in favor of the OHL.

    But, I’m obviously in no authoritative position to question it. I’ll have to read more about it.

  8. speeds says:

    Anthony DeAngelo?

  9. jfry says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    rom, you’ve gotta read vollman’s book. it’s an absolute must.

  10. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Anthony DeAngelo?

    82, 7-27-34. I just did the first round. Don’t think DeAngelo gets taken that high, do you?

  11. speeds says:

    It’s possible, Button had him 12th in March:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

  12. Rondo says:

    Edmonton will take Ekblad or Bennett if available , if not then Draisaitl.

  13. sliderule says:

    Lt how did you work out Fiala Nhle as he only played 17 games in shl the rest was in under 20.

    Check future considerations.

  14. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Lt how did you work out Fiala Nile as he only played 17 games in shl the rest was in under 20.

    Check future considerations.

    I used the 17 games. That’s why I mentioned small sample size above.

  15. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    When you use such a small sample size it throws the rest of the great report out of proportion.

  16. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Lowetide,

    When you use such a small sample size it throws the rest of the great report out of proportion.

    Meh. I think people can judge for themselves. I ran the numbers, made a note of the sample size and then moved on.

  17. VanOil says:

    After yesterday’s Canucks Army piece on drafting by picking the next best CHL scorer, I can’t help but wonder if there are any organizations who could out draft the above NHLE list over say a decade.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    VanOil:
    After yesterday’s Canucks Army piece on drafting by picking the next best CHL scorer, I can’t help but wonder if there are any organizations who could out draft the above NHLE list over say a decade.

    I had the same thought reading that piece.

  19. VanOil says:

    Lowetide:
    About Carcillo

    http://www.puckrant.com/Slapshot/NOT_ONE_DAMN_THING

    Wow I can’t believe you are proposing a Gagner for Carcillo trade. You sure love eye glow and grititude!

  20. LostBoy says:

    I was at the game in Chicago when Carcillo took out Gilbert from behind, then took out himself on the rebound. The Chicago fans (who are generally a class act) mostly just shook their heads. The ones who weren’t embarrassed were confused over how he ended up injured as well. Noone around me defended him.

    In the warmup earlier, he amused himself by deliberately straying onto the Oilers’ side of center ice every time he came around, trying to intimidate the young guys (the Oilers ignored him, for better or worse).

  21. Racki says:

    I hate to beat a dead horse, but good of Hartikainen to be on top of things, jumping to Gilbert’s defense…

    I’m a dinosaur I guess, but I just can’t stand that. At least pretend like you give a shit that your teammate just got run.

  22. Oilanderp says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_T2cjRHgb8

    The hit on Gilbert by CarfknCillo for those of us like myself who are memory deficient. Surprise good ending on the clip too….. I guess.

  23. rickithebear says:

    The largest flaw of NHLE is the large % of north american NHLE that is PP production.
    Unnaturl success rates Junior players get playing lesser standard players who are Pking.

    Get reduced TOI and hardly see PP.

    So North american NHLE are unnaturally high.

    That is why i look at EV production only. and indicate an suspected ceiling for a player.

    Aug 96 2.5 times higher than current production at 22..
    sept 95 1.65 times higher than current production at age 22.

    oct 94 1.37 times current production
    EX. Boghdan Yakimov
    33gm 7G 5A
    15EVG 10EVA NHLE
    20EVg 15 EVA @22

    Oct 93 1.17 times current production @ 22.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Ricki: They are the exact reasons I have Bennett #1.

  25. Deadman Waiting says:

    We watched The Green Mile the other night, in which many light bulbs explode, but no ideas die. Not our normal fare. We just happened to have a slot open for a long movie, and some other long movie I had in mind was not available.

    Like Pieces of Glass In My Head

    Bam! A light bulb exploded inside my head and I recognized the entire story as a rip-off and major embellishment of Theodore Sturgeon’s Need which I first encountered in an anthology by Spider Robinson entitled The Best of All Possible Worlds. This same small book contained the duel scene on the Cliffs on Insanity so it was also my route to The Princess Bride, as well, possibly, also Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee. Some book or another I read around that time (perhaps this same one) contained an intro to Spider Robinson himself by some other major figure in science fiction, in which he related visiting Spider in Spider’s home and being served this most amazing cup of coffee (this is back in the late 1970s, where even a palatable cup of coffee is playgirl of the month compared to Milgrew Maxwellhouse). Spider was practically bouncing off the walls–ceremonially–in delectation. Spider, the reader was informed, was this odd specimen of the human condition–an enthusiast in all things; for Spider, the entire world consisted of $50,000 tube amplifiers playing Spem In Alium, chosen stairway to heaven for the closing act of one dearly departing Terry Pratchett (mind your speakers, I heard a big audio blip somewhere in there).

    I haven’t read another Sturgeon story for thirty years, but just that one little story stayed with me. Decided it was high time to see what other gems he scattered from the heavens with that crafty pen. Wound up bringing home Baby is Three, Volume VI in the Complete Stories of Theodore Sturgeon, foreword by David Crosby.

    Paul Williams tells me my friend Phil Lesh of the Grateful Dead has described “Baby is Three”/More than Human as the only model he and his bandmates had to understand what was happening to them when they began to play together. He might have been more conscious about that than I was, but it affected me in the same place.

    There is a thing that happens in a band, where these diverse human beings link up, through this language that they’re speaking together, this music.

    They create a thing where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. And there springs into existence over them another being. So there’s four of them, there’s a fifth being, or if there’s five there’s a sixth being, that is a composite of them, and that is bigger than all of them. And if they understand what they’re doing, they submit to this personality, they give up their individuality for this unity. And they create this new being that can make the art of the instant, that can make the music happen when you’re playing live.

    Although I loved the story before I became a band member. But once I became a band member I had this whole resonant blueprint in the back of my head about what that was. And so I understood what it was and I submitted to it, and I have always loved being part of that, more than being a solo … I like the union so much more than autonomy that there must have been some basic tilt in me towards it. I think “Baby is Three” was a large part of me having that tilt. It just rang my bell. Big time.

    The homo gestalt experience of creating a fifth entity by forming a four-person unit is such a startling thing, it’s very hard to explain it to people who haven’t played music with other people or done some kind of unity-forming for a purpose. … But with a band, the thing that you’re trying to create is so ethereal, and so hard to put salt on its tail, that it’s very difficult to explain to people when it’s there and when it’s not there. Too many people think that it’s just about showing up and striking a pose. Trying to do the other thing is intricate, and requires people with enough ego to go on stage who are also over here to dissociate from the ego and disassemble it, in order to create this other thing. It’s a rare deal. Anybody, any really good band, particularly a band that improvises together–the Grateful Dead for absolute sure, they were built on it, it was their lifeblood–any band that improvises together and tries to push the envelope (which of course is where the best shit is), they know this thing. Anybody from a band like that would read “Baby is Three” and say, “Oh yeah! Yeah!!” and recognize it right away.

    I met Ted Sturgeon in 1970. He was an unusual guy. He wasn’t all cosmic and airy-fairy in how he thought about things. He was actually sort of acerbic and funny and had a great kind of wry wit about stuff. But he could conceive idealism on a level that most other people couldn’t get to. He was a great cat. We put him through a really unbearable experience [] when we hired him to write a screenplay for Wooden Ships, a proposed CSNY film based on one of our songs.

    It was a nightmare for him, because each guy would get him alone and tell him how he wanted the script to be. And of course in each guy’s view, he was the hero. The other guys were sort of posing around the edges like a Greek chorus. Mine was populated with young girls–and had all this sex in it. Stephen’s was populated by this lonely military hero out there. Neil took one look at the whole film idea and said, “No … No, man, I don’t think so, man …” It was hysterical. We were all such complete egotists by that time, and living so much in our own universes, and everything was so contrary to the vision I just told you about …

    It was a completely hopeless tar-baby of a project. And Ted tried to do it in good faith. He kept trying to be positive about it. He would write and write and write and say, “What about this?” And we’d say, “Well, no, that’s too much of them and not enough of me.” It was a terrible thing, and I’m mostly responsible for having done it to him.

    I should have stayed friends with him and stayed close to him, but at a certain point the drugs took over, and friendships got less important …

    And so the intro ends.

  26. David says:

    I wouldn’t worry that much about small sample size with Fiala. He went 27, 10-15-25 in the Swedish junior league plaus led Switzerland in scoring as a 17 year old at the World Juniors 5, 1-4-5 and at the under 18′s 5, 4-5-9.

    I don’t think he’s as good as Nylander but he’s clearly offensively gifted. I don’t think it would be a reach to take him as early as 9/10.

  27. Rebilled says:

    Deadman Waiting,

    This is why the Oilers deserve a winning team.

    Deadman fans don’t deserve this team.

  28. David says:

    Lowetide: I can help. Vollman’s chapter shows the OHL really kicking ass in recent seasons. One of the things people are critical about re Desjardins is that it doesn’t adjust. One of the MAJOR trends is the OHL putting the boots to the rest of the CHL, Tavares, Hall etc beat the tar of of the OHL NHLE

    Just because a couple of superstars blew up the average shouldn’t effect everyone else. That would seem like poor logic. If they trust the work they’ve done to establish the equivalencies, then they shouldn’t throw it out because elite first overalls can eclipse the NHLE.

  29. Rebilled says:

    …I’d like to see Deadman enjoy a winning team

  30. RexLibris says:

    speeds:
    Anthony DeAngelo?

    Beverly’s son?

  31. RexLibris says:

    I’ve noticed some serious fracturing on Bennett recently. Some are becoming more enamoured with the prospect, others and whispering about things being not-quite-right.

    Meanwhile, Draisaitl seems still as divisive as ever and Reinhart appears to be almost an also-ran because nobody is saying anything about him.

    What a strange draft year this is, considered weak by many, yet GMs refusing to give up any picks at the deadline and often deferring to next year, and then a collection of prospects whom nobody appears to be overly excited about and yet at the same time no one is able to clearly define why player X is better than player Y.

    Just need Garth Snow to win Executive of the Year and I’ll know that my life is being narrated by Rod Serling.

  32. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    Ricki: They are the exact reasons I have Bennett #1.

    Me too!

    But Thinner elite producing Forward who plays intense physical game.
    I get that Nervous Gilbert brule feeling!

  33. theres oil in virginia says:

    Racki:
    I hate to beat a dead horse, but good of Hartikainen to be on top of things, jumping to Gilbert’s defense…

    I’m a dinosaur I guess, but I just can’t stand that. At least pretend like you give a shit that your teammate just got run.

    If you’re referring to the Carcillo hit on Gilbert, I think the reaction was muted when the players noticed that Carcillo was injured. Personally, I think that was a good time to finish him off. It would have been the humane thing to do.

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Carcillo has some sort of chemical imbalance, I’m convinced of it.

    Best revenge that night was scoring on that PP and going on to steal the win, 2-1. Thus Carcillo’s batshit crazy hit cost his team the game, and himself both a long suspension and a season-ending injury.

    Triple indemnity from the Hockey Gords. Almost made it worth it.

  35. shawnmullin says:

    I think Honka is going to have a career. He’s got a few intangibles that don’t come across in what are impressive stats as it is. One is that he wants the puck on his stick and he wants to shoot. Sometimes as a player is maturing that can lead to some mistakes or shots getting blocked as teams get to know that about you, on the other hand he’s great at finding seems and that confidence/bravado is something you can’t teach. Too many guys with talent as young players still feel the need to defer or are all too happy to. Honka wants that puck and he wants to control it… and he wants to get it to the net.

    His defensive game improved significantly throughout the season. He ended up on the top penalty kill unit and matched up with the other team’s best players all season sometimes playing with a shutdown line of forwards half the game and still managing to put up big points. He’s a smart player who anticipates the action rather than trying to force it in the defensive zone and doesn’t get beat much.

    He’s not big bu the’s strong and he’s feisty. He can lay a hip check here and there and he’s not afraid to stick a glove in someone’s face or get into it after a whistle with someone. He’s grittier than players of his size and skill level are generally given credit for.

    There are warts here of course as there would be for any young player let alone one that is slated for the back half of the first round. However, the instant impact he made in the league without taking any time to struggle to adjust to the North American game was striking and at times he was almost the team’s MVP or at least most unique and thus irreplaceable player. I’m biased because I watched him play like 80 games this year, but I think teams will be kicking themselves for letting him slide too far. I’m not saying he’s going to be Karlsson and put up 80 point seasons in the NHL… though he should be a good lesson for teams that pass on skilled defencemen because they aren’t over 6′ tall.

  36. Pieces of a Man: Top Ten 2014 NHL Draft Eligible Players - The Oilers Rig - The Oilers Rig says:

    […] of NHLE see this excellent article by Byron Bader and these numerous articles by Lowetide here, here and […]

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