OIL KINGS WITH A CHANCE TO WIN IT ALL. AGAIN!

For the last several seasons, the Edmonton Oil Kings have been winning 50 games a year, and then pushing deep into the postseason. A win this afternoon on Rexall ice will give the organization two championships in three seasons. They won it all in 2012, and can do it again with a win this afternoon.

I’m thrilled for these young men, this is a special championship because both teams are elite and have sustain. It is the highly unusual for a great team to meet and then beat a better one, but we could see it today.

Bless you boys, do it again!

ok 13-14 p1ok 13-14 p2

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78 Responses to "OIL KINGS WITH A CHANCE TO WIN IT ALL. AGAIN!"

  1. zatch says:

    Offhand, am I the only North American who completely prefers Eliteprospects to Hockeydb?

  2. Zangetsu says:

    The real stud is number 12 Cole Benson. Two time champ tonight.

  3. godot10 says:

    David Perron for Magnus Paajarvi and Brett Pollock perhaps. Great trade! -).

  4. cabbiesmacker says:

    I think of winning it ALL as the Mem Cup. Anything below this is nice but a tad hollow no?

  5. Lowetide says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    I think of winning it ALL as the Mem Cup. Anything below this is nice but a tad hollow no?

    The Memorial Cup is awesome, but the WHL championship is the league title. If the OK win, they fly to London, play the crappiest schedule possible and the home team gets the best one. There’s a LOT about the Mem Cup that favors a home team. I think the Mem Cup is more of an exhibition.

  6. David says:

    It is the highly unusual for a great team to meet and then beat a better one, but we could see it today.

    I don’t know if this is saying you think Portland is the better team but I would disagree. I think the Oil Kings at their best beats Portland at their best. I was at game four, Reinhart was Chris Pronger out there. He never got beat once in the entire game. Won every battle and I counted four golden defensie plays that he made look easy. If the Oil Kings bring it again today they will be victorious.

  7. Rocknrolla says:

    Anyone got a stream? traveling today…

  8. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Two quick goals from Samuelsson. Man oh man I wish he fell to the second round in 2012!

  9. Lowetide says:

    Moroz was just outstanding on that second goal. Lordy.

  10. Gerta Rauss says:

    channel 303 on Shaw ,on the West coast anyway

  11. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Kulda for the dreaded 3-goal lead in the first period.

  12. Clarence Oveur says:

    Pile it on.

    Plenty of time to erase a 3-0 deficit.

  13. PunjabiOil says:

    Would the OK have a good chance at winning the memorial cup? Are they the favourite?

  14. frjohnk says:

    Nice clip of the oil king dressing room during the intermission. Camera panned the room just as an oil king was at the urinal taking a leak. Ha ha

  15. Lowetide says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Would the OK have a good chance at winning the memorial cup?Are they the favourite?

    Guelph is a helluva team, and London was loaded last time I looked. Q champ tbd.

  16. Gerta Rauss says:

    Well, this is exciting

  17. striker says:

    Rocknrolla:
    Anyone got a stream?traveling today…

    Dunno about video stream but here is the audio stream.

    http://player.tsn1260.ca/

  18. Zangetsu says:

    Draisaitl isn’t big, he just filled out early. IMO he is the riskiest pick in the top three centres, and has the least upside.

  19. striker says:

    Time to call a timeout?

  20. Gret99zky says:

    Oil Kings look terrified out there.

    Absolutely horror struck.

    They better get it together quickly.

    Call a time-out before it’s too late.

  21. One-Timer says:

    What would Cal be willing to give up to swap that 4th pick for Edmonton’s 3rd? No doubt the Oilers would end up looking ditherish if they tried that, but it’s an interesting thought.

  22. MrEd says:

    Nuts!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  23. Lloyd B. says:

    Update please. Whats happening with the oil Kings? Score. time left, etc.

  24. Gret99zky says:

    when you blow two 3 goal leads you don’t deserve to win.

    better luck next game.

  25. One-Timer says:

    There was some talk here a while ago about trading for Spezza and his one-year contract. A better idea would be to draft the next Spezza, whose name happens to be Leon Draisatl!
    Spezza’s prospect reports sound remarkably similar to his: large but unaggressive center who uses his size to protect the puck, good hands and play-making, so-so skater with good top-end speed, surprisingly hard and accurate shot. Draisatl’s draft year boxcars don’t look quite like Spezza’s did, but his 44 pts in the last 20 games is at the right pace. (I know: triple-S alert…)
    IF that all works out, the big question will be how to shore up the middle until Leon is ready to make a difference in 2 or 3 years.

  26. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lloyd B.:
    Update please.Whats happening with the oil Kings?Score. time left, etc.

    Oil Kings lose in OT after 3-0 and 5-2 between period leads

    Game 7 tomorrow in Portland

  27. Gret99zky says:

    a wonderful first period.

    followed by total abandonment from what was working.

    oh well.

  28. MrEd says:

    Over 10000 fans. Well done Edmonton.

  29. MrEd says:

    Sail on Lazar.

  30. MrEd says:

    Sail on Samuelsson.

  31. MrEd says:

    Laxdal?

  32. MrEd says:

    Hamilton?

  33. MrEd says:

    Edmonton Hockey legends them all.

  34. Lowetide says:

    My bet is we never see Laxdal, Lazar, Reinhart, Moroz as Oil Kings again. Helluva run, great game today until the Moroz offensive zone penalty. D’oh!

  35. MrEd says:

    Thanks LT. Do you think Hamilton will stick around?

  36. Lowetide says:

    MrEd:
    Thanks LT. Do you think Hamilton will stick around?

    I think he’s the next head coach. Long overdue.

  37. MrEd says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed. Steve (Mr. Hamilton) is the business.

  38. MrEd says:

    Amazing family.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Hope you don’t mind me posting this here LT as its off topic.

    Kypreos tweeted that TOR might be shopping Phaneuf.

    This twitter exchange then happened between Tyler and myself, and then Matt Fenwick added his thoughts:

    mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey 3h
    If the Leafs are just going to give Phaneuf away to get out from under that deal, I’d think long and hard about it.

    ‏@Woodguy55
    @mc79hockey Problem is he’s a 2LD and the Oilers would play him at 1LD.

    ‏@mc79hockey 2h
    I’d love to know the 30 LD in the NHL better than Phaneuf.

    ‏@Woodguy55 2h
    @mc79hockey Phaneuf failing to be a quality 1LD (in the EC no less) doesn’t mean that there are 29 better ones. Just means that he’s not one

    ‏@FenwickMatt 2h
    @Woodguy55 Bah, we had this discussion about #1 centres back in the day. If there are nowhere near 30, definition is wrong. @mc79hockey

    @Woodguy55 2h
    @FenwickMatt @mc79hockey Some teams have 2 LD who I rate higher, but only one is actually a 1LD. Make more sense?

    ‏@Woodguy55 2h
    @FenwickMatt @mc79hockey No, its more like this. I think both Hjarlmsson and Keith are better than Phaneuf, only one is considered a “1LD”

    So,

    Here’s my list of LHD who I would prefer over Phaneuf.

    First, there are 30 LH Dmen who played the toughest comp and had better RelCor than Phaneuf.

    I removed 3 who didn’t pass the smell test (Spurgeon (whom I really like), Lovejoy (Fowler partner), and Gorges.

    That leaves 27.

    RelCor isn’t the end all and be all, (can’t ignore ZS), but its a good place to start with players who play the toughest comp.

    All these players shoot left. I didn’t include any RH players at all. I did include RD who shoot left as they would probably be better playing the left side.

    Here they are:

    GIORDANO
    BRODIE
    MARINCIN (probably get blasted for this but his +15 RelCor as a rookie on an awful Oilers team is unreal)
    VLASIC
    TIMONEN (getting old, could be convinced to remove him from list)
    DE HAAN (see Marincin)
    HEDMAN
    EHRHOFF
    PIETRANGELO
    GREENE(ANDY)
    CHARA
    KRONWALL
    BOUWMEESTER
    COBURN
    JOSI
    HAMHUIS
    ERICSSON
    DILLON
    SUTER
    FOWLER
    TYUTIN (see Tiomen, long in the tooth)
    ENSTROM
    ALZNER (almost no offence, could think he’s a better defensive Dman than Phaneuf)
    EKMAN-LARSSON
    MCDONAGH
    MARTIN
    MICHALEK

    Here are others who don’t play in the 1st pairing (toughest comp) who I rate ahead of Phaneuf:

    KEITH
    MARKOV
    EDLER
    BRODIN
    BYFUGLYIEN (assuming he played D obv)

    So there’s 32 LHD I’d want playing 1LD on the Oilers ahead of Phaneuf.

    I’m sure your mileage will vary on some of them.

  40. D says:

    LT – will be at the game tomorrow in Portland. Very excited for Game 7!

  41. Lowetide says:

    WG: LD or All D? Anyway:

    GIORDANO
    VLASIC
    HEDMAN
    EHRHOFF
    PIETRANGELO
    CHARA
    KRONWALL
    COBURN
    JOSI
    HAMHUIS
    SUTER
    EKMAN-LARSSON
    KEITH
    EDLER
    BRODIN
    BYFUGLYIEN (assuming he played D obv)
    MCDONAGH

    How many is that? Not 30, and I’ve moved Pietrangelo over because I assume you know something. I wouldn’t trade Marincin for Phaneuf, but MacT might.

  42. Lowetide says:

    D:
    LT – will be at the game tomorrow in Portland.Very excited for Game 7!

    Cool! Send reports!

  43. David says:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kypreos-toronto-maple-leafs-ottawa-senators-shopping-captains-dion-phaneuf-jason-spezza/

    The article says they are shopping him to the western conference and that it might be expected that they retain 1-2 million per year.

    I would definately make a move for Phanuef. Only 28 years old, definately better than what the oilers have. And the most important thing of all- available.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: LD or All D? Anyway:

    GIORDANO
    VLASIC
    HEDMAN
    EHRHOFF
    PIETRANGELO
    CHARA
    KRONWALL
    COBURN
    JOSI
    HAMHUIS
    SUTER
    EKMAN-LARSSON
    KEITH
    EDLER
    BRODIN
    BYFUGLYIEN (assuming he played D obv)
    MCDONAGH

    How many is that? Not 30, and I’ve moved Pietrangelo over because I assume you know something. I wouldn’t trade Marincin for Phaneuf, but MacT might.

    Just left shooting D, regardless of whether they play left or right side.

    List has nothing to do with availability, just 30+ LHS Dmen who I rate above Phaneuf

    I fear MacT would trade Marincin for Phaneuf as well.

    TOR would get the better Dman imo.

    Certainly would get the more valuable Dman given Marincin’s $ and age compared to Phaneuf.

  45. Woodguy says:

    David:
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kypreos-toronto-maple-leafs-ottawa-senators-shopping-captains-dion-phaneuf-jason-spezza/

    The article says they are shopping him to the western conference and that it might be expected that they retain 1-2 million per year.

    I would definately make a move for Phanuef. Only 28 years old, definately better than what the oilers have. And the most important thing of all- available.

    If they retain salary, I’d adjust my list a bit.

    Probably not by much.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: LD or All D? Anyway:

    GIORDANO
    VLASIC
    HEDMAN
    EHRHOFF
    PIETRANGELO
    CHARA
    KRONWALL
    COBURN
    JOSI
    HAMHUIS
    SUTER
    EKMAN-LARSSON
    KEITH
    EDLER
    BRODIN
    BYFUGLYIEN (assuming he played D obv)
    MCDONAGH

    How many is that? Not 30, and I’ve moved Pietrangelo over because I assume you know something. I wouldn’t trade Marincin for Phaneuf, but MacT might.

    Bah!

    Missed that Pietrangelo was RH.

    You chopped quite a pile off the list.

    So you, Matt and Tyler think I’m off on this.

    Probably have to reconsider.

    I think you are selling some young men too short though.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:

    I think you are selling some young men too short though.

    Ten years of watching young defensemen does that to a guy!!!

  48. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: LD or All D? Anyway:

    GIORDANO
    VLASIC
    HEDMAN
    EHRHOFF
    PIETRANGELO
    CHARA
    KRONWALL
    COBURN
    JOSI
    HAMHUIS
    SUTER
    EKMAN-LARSSON
    KEITH
    EDLER
    BRODIN
    BYFUGLYIEN (assuming he played D obv)
    MCDONAGH

    How many is that? Not 30, and I’ve moved Pietrangelo over because I assume you know something. I wouldn’t trade Marincin for Phaneuf, but MacT might.

    I can understand all of your exclusions except:

    Fowler
    De Haan
    DIllon
    Brodie

    These 4 are going to very good for a long time.

    Edit: Forgot Brodie the first time

  49. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Ten years of watching young defensemen does that to a guy!!!

    Ageist!!!

  50. jp says:

    zatch:
    Offhand, am I the only North American who completely prefers Eliteprospects to Hockeydb?

    No, not the only one, though hockeydb does have the advantage of being able to link to many things more easily.

  51. David says:

    Maybe MacT can make a bold move that would get us Phanuef and Kadri or Gardiner and Kadri.

    I know that probably no one else in the world will agree with me but I’d be willing to send Perron back as the key piece the other way. I know that MacT won’t do this cause Perron was his first big trade and it was super successful.

    However, Perron is a winger, Kadri is a center, the Oilers have dreadfully awful center depth. Center is widely considered of more importance

    Perron is coming of a career year, and a year in which he stayed healthy after concussion issues. (He currently has a lower body injury of some sort but that won’t be an issue) his value is high

    Kadri as a 22 year old put up 44 points in the 48 game lockout season. I believe his offensive ceiling would be much greater than Perron who would top out around 55-60 while Kadri will probably get up to 70-75

    The biggest reason why people will be against this deal is because they perceive Perron as a different type of player than the Oilers top six but he’s not big he’s 6’0 200 pounds, Kadri is 6’0 190 pounds. Perron is slightly more aggressive than the average player but he doesn’t run around wrecking people, and his praised agitating ability is rare to see, only here and there. Essentially what Perron was this year was a good offensive player. And I believe Kadri will be a better offensive player.

    Feel free to call me an idiot.

  52. Woodguy says:

    David,

    You’re not an idiot.

    I trade Perron for a C, but it would have to be better than Kadri though and I like Kadri.

    Size isn’t the issue.

    Its puck battles won/lost along with ability to take-a-pass/make-a-pass

    Perron wins his share of puck battles and usually doesn’t shy away from the the puck battle.

    That’s not common enough on the Oilers.

  53. flyfish1168 says:

    Just read on TSN Spezza would favor a move out of Ottawa. I’m not in favor of Spezza being an Oiler due to history of injuries and possible lingering back issues.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=451911

  54. Zangetsu says:

    One-Timer,

    Sounds like penner to me, or if you want to read a similar scouting report from recent times check out mikhail Grigorenko http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/hockeynews/hockey/player.php?9359 . Keeping in mind Draisaitl isn’t 6’4”. He has roughly average nhl size. For comparison, he is about tows size http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=93829 but an inch shorter . Spezza is much bigger http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=42311 . Draisaitl is a boy playing a man’s game in a boys league, he won’t be able to play that way in the nhl. He is a player who simply filled out earlier than others. I doubt he ever plays above 215. Hall and him will likely play at similar weight. He isn’t the big centerman we need.

    That sounds like I hate him, and I don’t really. I do think he is the worst of the top 4 in this draft though. I guess I’m just frustrated by the myth that he is a behemoth. If we want a physical centre, we want bennett. If we want the best two way centre, we want reinhart. If we want a dman, we want Eckblad. If we don’t want a dman, and the other two are gone, we want Draisaitl. I honestly think MacT is bluffing to try and get buffalo or florida to bite so he has a better asset to trade down with.

  55. jp says:

    Woodguy:

    So,

    Here’s my list of LHD who I would prefer over Phaneuf.

    First, there are 30 LH Dmen who played the toughest comp and had better RelCor than Phaneuf.

    I removed 3 who didn’t pass the smell test (Spurgeon (whom I really like), Lovejoy (Fowler partner), and Gorges.

    That leaves 27.

    RelCor isn’t the end all and be all, (can’t ignore ZS), but its a good place to start with players who play the toughest comp.

    ….
    So there’s 32 LHD I’d want playing 1LD on the Oilers ahead of Phaneuf.

    Just a little curious about your methodology WG. I assume you used BTN for qual comp. According to BTN, Phaneuf had the #1 in most difficult CorsiRelQoC (and had the 18th most difficult CorsiQoC) in the NHL this year. He and Gunnarson also had the 2 most difficult zone starts amongst any D in the NHL with a CorsiRelQoC greater than 0 (131 defensemen >40GP faced >0 Comp). So couldn’t it be argued that Phaneuf played THE MOST difficult minutes of any defenseman in the NHL last year? And if so, he deserves a considerable bump up from #33 LHD in the NHL where you placed him?

  56. spoiler says:

    I would take Phaneuf, depending on the price of course, but I have great difficulty believing he would play in his family’s hometown. I’d bet too that Elisha wants to be closer to Hollywoodian activity, so its either a Southern team or Van.

  57. sliderule says:

    The rumour I have heard is Perron for a first pairing defender.

    Phaneuf??

  58. D says:

    Lowetide: Cool! Send reports!

    Pictures also!

  59. spoiler says:

    I think if the Penguins lose the next game, Kris Letang could well be available. But can you take on the risk of his ischemia?

  60. Woodguy says:

    jp: Just a little curious about your methodology WG. I assume you used BTN for qual comp. According to BTN, Phaneuf had the #1 in most difficult CorsiRelQoC (and had the 18th most difficult CorsiQoC) in the NHL this year. He and Gunnarson also had the 2 most difficult zone starts amongst any D in the NHL with a CorsiRelQoC greater than 0 (131 defensemen >40GP faced >0 Comp). So couldn’t it be argued that Phaneuf played THE MOST difficult minutes of any defenseman in the NHL last year? And if so, he deserves a considerable bump up from #33 LHD in the NHL where you placed him?

    I don’t use absolute values of BTN’s QC ratings.

    If you did that then Chara ranks playing the 145th toughest minutes, and that simply isn’t true.

    The QC measure works to see who has the toughest comp on the team, but it doesn’t work to use the absolute number to compare players across teams (side note: this is also another reason that rickibear wanders in the desert with some of his stuff…..)

    I used both BTN QC (per team) and cross referenced it with Extraskater’s rating.

    They agreed who saw the toughest comp about 98% of the time, so I feel good about who I picked.

    I figured which players was the lead dog on the 1st pairing D, and if that player had multiple partners, I picked them most common partner via 5v5 TOI.

    I won’t argue that Phaneuf didn’t have very difficult minutes because he did.

    His zone start and TOI with McClement certainly handicapped him.

    That said, others had the most severe zone starts on their team and came out with +RelCor and Phaneuf didn’t.

    His quality of team mates wasn’t great, but his most common 3 F’s were Kessel, Van Riemsdyk and Bozak so he wasn’t always playing with chains around his feet. (although you can certainly argue Bozak on that point)

  61. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    I would take Phaneuf, depending on the price of course, but I have great difficulty believing he would play in his family’s hometown.I’d bet too that Elisha wants to be closer to Hollywoodian activity, so its either a Southern team or Van.

    Phaneuf doesn’t have a NTC on his current contract.

    If he is traded before July 1st, he has no choice.

    I am unsure whether or not his new contract (7 years $7MM Ave.) has one, but if he’s traded before July 1 its moot.

  62. Woodguy says:

    BTW, Here’s the list of the 1st pairing D (toughest comp) on every team that I came up with and their RelCor

    ZS and QT not considered for this list:

    ANA FOWLER -1
    ANA LOVEJOY -5.1
    BOS HAMILTON 6
    BOS CHARA 3.6
    BUF EHRHOFF 9.6
    BUF PYSYK 5.5
    CAR BELLEMORE -3.2
    CAR FAULK 3.5
    CBJ TYUTIN -1.6
    CBJ JOHNSON -7
    CGY GIORDANO 22.8
    CGY BRODIE 17.1
    CHI HJALMARSSON -8.4
    CHI ODYUA -9.9
    COL HEJDA -7.4
    COL JOHNSON 2.4
    DAL DILLON -0.7
    DAL GOLIGOSKI 2
    DET ERICSSON -0.2
    DET KRONWALL 3.5
    EDM MARINCIN 15.5
    EDM PETRY 6.8
    FLA GILBERT 5.1
    FLA CAMPBELL 6.6
    LAK DOUGHTY 4.9
    LAK REGEHR -12.6
    MIN SUTER -0.9
    MIN SPURGEON 6.2
    MTL EMELIN -6.6
    MTL GORGES -4.6
    NJD FAYNE 1.6
    NJD GREENE 4.2
    NSH JOSI 1.4
    NSH WEBER -1.9
    NYI DE HAAN 11.5
    NYI HAMONIC 2.7
    NYR MCDONAGH -4
    NYR GIRARDI -9.2
    OTT KARLSSON 10.4
    OTT COWEN -3.7
    PHI COBURN 1.6
    PHI TIMONEN 13.9
    PHX MICHALEK -0.9
    PHX EKMAN-LARSSON -3.8
    PIT ORPIK -8.8
    PIT MARTIN -4.4
    SJS BRAUN 1.6
    SJS VLASIC 15.4
    STL BOUWMEESTER 2.5
    STL PIETRANGELO 5.7
    TBY SALO 2.3
    TBY HEDMAN 10.1
    TOR GUNNARSSON -10.6
    TOR PHANEUF -5.8
    VAN TANEV 0.7
    VAN HAMHUIS 1.2
    WIN ENSTROM -2.4
    WIN BOGOSIAN -2.4
    WSH CARLSON -3
    WSH ALZNER -3.3

  63. Woodguy says:

    Here’s the same list sorted by RelCor:

    CGY GIORDANO 22.8
    CGY BRODIE 17.1
    EDM MARINCIN 15.5
    SJS VLASIC 15.4
    PHI TIMONEN 13.9
    NYI DE HAAN 11.5
    OTT KARLSSON 10.4
    TBY HEDMAN 10.1
    BUF EHRHOFF 9.6
    EDM PETRY 6.8
    FLA CAMPBELL 6.6
    MIN SPURGEON 6.2
    BOS HAMILTON 6
    STL PIETRANGELO 5.7
    BUF PYSYK 5.5
    FLA GILBERT 5.1
    LAK DOUGHTY 4.9
    NJD GREENE 4.2
    BOS CHARA 3.6
    CAR FAULK 3.5
    DET KRONWALL 3.5
    NYI HAMONIC 2.7
    STL BOUWMEESTER 2.5
    COL JOHNSON 2.4
    TBY SALO 2.3
    DAL GOLIGOSKI 2
    NJD FAYNE 1.6
    PHI COBURN 1.6
    SJS BRAUN 1.6
    NSH JOSI 1.4
    VAN HAMHUIS 1.2
    VAN TANEV 0.7
    DET ERICSSON -0.2
    DAL DILLON -0.7
    MIN SUTER -0.9
    PHX MICHALEK -0.9
    ANA FOWLER -1
    CBJ TYUTIN -1.6
    NSH WEBER -1.9
    WIN ENSTROM -2.4
    WIN BOGOSIAN -2.4
    WSH CARLSON -3
    CAR BELLEMORE -3.2
    WSH ALZNER -3.3
    OTT COWEN -3.7
    PHX EKMAN-LARSSON -3.8
    NYR MCDONAGH -4
    PIT MARTIN -4.4
    MTL GORGES -4.6
    ANA LOVEJOY -5.1
    TOR PHANEUF -5.8
    MTL EMELIN -6.6
    CBJ JOHNSON -7
    COL HEJDA -7.4
    CHI HJALMARSSON -8.4
    PIT ORPIK -8.8
    NYR GIRARDI -9.2
    CHI ODYUA -9.9
    TOR GUNNARSSON -10.6
    LAK REGEHR -12.6

  64. Woodguy says:

    I already see 2 mistakes.

    Should have been Sekera instead of Bellmore on CAR.

    Should have been Methot instead of Cowan on OTT.

    Probably more mistakes too.

    None too egregious I hope.

  65. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    I won’t argue that Phaneuf didn’t have very difficult minutes because he did.

    His zone start and TOI with McClement certainly handicapped him.

    That said, others had the most severe zone starts on their team and came out with +RelCor and Phaneuf didn’t.

    His quality of team mates wasn’t great, but his most common 3 F’s were Kessel, Van Riemsdyk and Bozak so he wasn’t always playing with chains around his feet. (although you can certainly argue Bozak on that point)

    Its pretty tough to compare from team to team, because some team’s first pairing minutes appear to be much different then others.

    Look at the gap between Phaneuf and Gunnarson on the Leafs to the next guy on the list in qual comp. Its a huge difference.

    Compare that to the Oilers who have like 5 guys in around the same range as “first comp” guys.

    Look at Phaneuf’s REL-Corsi under Wilson, its average to good compared to his teammates in 10-12. In the two years after Carlyle took over it has went to the bottom of the team.

    Is the REL-CORSI telling us more about the quality of the player, or more about how different coaches run their benches?

    I think we would count our lucky stars if Marincin ended up being anywhere near Phaneuf in terms of impact on the game.

    For all the touting of our young defencemen, after MacT fixed the goaltending and Marincin and Klefbom were both in the lineup, the Oilers were still god awful in their last 20 games…….

    I’d trade Marincin for Phaneuf. Oilers need more established NHL players.

  66. Caramel Obvious says:

    Woodguy,

    I’m with you on Phaneuf but I don’t understand why you are ignoring zone starts and QT when these are so much more important than QoC.*

    Now you are using relcorsi which controls for QT somewhat but zone starts is critical. Doing it this way is going to overvalue guys who based on an ordinal ranking appear to play more difficult quality of competition but who don’t actually play more difficult competition since the difference between “first” and “second” pairing is of vanishing significance compared to zone starts and bad teammates.

  67. Caramel Obvious says:

    Yeah, Phaneuf had a pretty good season compared to his teammates. His relfenwick is negative but he had both toughest competition and worst zone starts so that doesn’t mean much.

    The contract is big and has to be considered. I wouldn’t trade Marincin or Perron for him, that’s for sure. I’d probably take him for a second round pick, though.

  68. Caramel Obvious says:

    Looking over the Leafs stats Kulemin really stands out as a possession player. Huge negative zone starts but basically broke even relative to team possession wise playing with second tier players.

    Sign that guy.

    Nothing on the D stand out. The guys with the best numbers were in the easiest situations and vice versa. No smoking guns.

  69. Caramel Obvious says:

    If the rumour that Grabovski and Kulemin want to sign for the same team, whichever team that ends up being will have done very well for themselves.

    Package Gagner and second tier guys + picks for Josi
    Sign Grabovski and Kulemin
    Sign another free agent forward and D

    And you are in business

  70. Numenius says:

    Nooooooooooooooooooo! Not Phaneuf.

    He’s not the player he used to be and he seems like he’s on anti-depressants. Even if he has a good season or two left in him, he won’t have much more than that.

  71. Gerta Rauss says:

    It would depend on what Toronto was asking in return for Phaneuf, and I’d make sure Ugly wanted to play here for 7 years prior to trading for him

    I’d rather chase someone like Campbell if we’re shopping in the $7M aisle

  72. mumbai max says:

    Please please please no Phaneuf or Spezza. Let’s grow our own problems, not overpay for them.

  73. mumbai max says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    If the rumour that Grabovski and Kulemin want to sign for the same team, whichever team that ends up being will have done very well for themselves.

    Package Gagner and second tier guys + picks for Josi
    Sign Grabovski and Kulemin
    Sign another free agent forward and D

    And you are in business

    I was convinced (cudgelled) in a previous thread about the value of Grabovski vs. Gagner. So this sounds good to me. I think you could sub Meyer or Ehrhoff or a few others for Josi, with the same effect. I really don’t want to give up Marincin/Klefbom in this kind of trade though.

  74. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Woodguy,

    I’m with you on Phaneuf but I don’t understand why you are ignoring zone starts and QT when these are so much more important than QoC.*

    Now you are using relcorsi which controls for QT somewhat but zone starts is critical.Doing it this way is going to overvalue guys who based on an ordinal ranking appear to play more difficult quality of competition but who don’t actually play more difficult competition since the difference between “first” and “second” pairing is of vanishing significance compared to zone starts and bad teammates.

    I’m not so much ignoring them as I am “haven’t done it” to this list yet.

    Its a lot of work and I haven’t had the time yet.

    This is a good place to start and was relevant so I posted it.

  75. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Its pretty tough to compare from team to team, because some team’s first pairing minutes appear to be much different then others.

    Look at the gap between Phaneuf and Gunnarson on the Leafs to the next guy on the list in qual comp. Its a huge difference.

    Compare that to the Oilers who have like 5 guys in around the same range as “first comp” guys.

    Look at Phaneuf’s REL-Corsi under Wilson, its average to good compared to his teammates in 10-12. In the two years after Carlyle took over it has went to the bottom of the team.

    Is the REL-CORSI telling us more about the quality of the player, or more about how different coaches run their benches?

    I think we would count our lucky stars if Marincin ended up being anywhere near Phaneuf in terms of impact on the game.

    For all the touting of our young defencemen, after MacT fixed the goaltending and Marincin and Klefbom were both in the lineup, the Oilers were still god awful in their last 20 games…….

    I’d trade Marincin for Phaneuf. Oilers need more established NHL players.

    Good points and agree with most of it.

    I’m not entirely sold that one team’s tough minutes are that much different than another’s, unless we are discussing WC vs EC.

  76. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: Good points and agree with most of it.

    I’m not entirely sold that one team’s tough minutes are that much different than another’s, unless we are discussing WC vs EC.

    They are different because one team might match their top pairing against the other team’s first line 85% of the time versus another team matching theirs 55%.

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