PRESSURE DROP

The 2010 entry draft will forever be known as the ‘Taylor versus Tyler’ draft, and the Oilers planned to use their picks as the foundation for winning that would come in time. The team stockpiled several top 100 selections and had a list of things ‘to do’ that included a rugged winger, more centermen and at least one significant defensive prospect. Taylor_Hall

Taylor Hall, NHL, per 82GP: 31-44-75

I’ll remember this moment forever. I thought he was over. I remember saying to my wife “that was ugly, he won’t be back” and then of course he returned a few shifts later and scored a goal. From that moment on, I was a Taylor Hall fan. He’s never let me down.

FORWARDS (per 82GP)

  1. Tyler Pitlick 8-13-21. Injuries have really impacted his career, but I think this season has been his most promising—incredible, considering a significant injury in his third NHL game. I’d like to see him push for a 4th line RW job in the fall, maybe work his way into the Ryan Jones role on his way to being a Pisani-type with two-way skill. He was a high (first pick) in the second round, but won’t bring enough offense to cover the bet. Still, he could be a central figure for this team and this draft. There’s definitely a need, can he fill it?
  2. Kellen Jones 9-12-21. Interesting player, and his brother too. Oilers didn’t sign them, they are AHL deals. I expect it’s nothing, but you can’t discount skill, and Jones may end helping this team down the line. The Rieder trade was most unfortunate, but a good organization scouts about to find more than one solution to a problem. Jones may or may not be it, but there’s clearly some skill here.
  3. Ryan Martindale 5-10-15.  Traded out of the organization mid-season, Martindale was the third round pick in 2010′s entry draft. It probably benefits him to try another organization, sometimes a re-set does the trick. There were some ‘effort’ issues rumored on draft day, that may also be the culprit. I remember he looked good in training camp, but can’t say much about him.
  4. Curtis Hamilton 7-7-14. Injuries and a three-year long lack of surge in his offense have Hamilton hanging by a thread. Frustrating because he CAN do it—we saw it around the new year—but there’s a new bunch of kids turning pro who are going to pass him. I’d love to see TOI totals for junior players. I think it’s a tell.
  5. Drew Czerwonka. Out of hockey via injuries, hope he’s well.

Kristians Pelss was part of this draft, we’re left to wonder about the person and the player. I’m so sorry for what happened, just a wink in time from a fine young person and it’s over. As a parent, I can only send thoughts and prayers to family and as a fanbase we can remember him well. Two years later, the Edmonton Oil Kings hold him closely in their hearts. You can’t manufacture that kind of thing, it just happens chemically. Kristians Pells was a helluva guy. Had to be, look at the memories he left.

DEFENSE (per 82GP)

  1. Martin Marincin 5-6-11. He spent most of the season in the NHL, and the 2010 draft finally delivered value beyond Taylor Hall. As with Klefbom and Nurse, Marincin’s value is far beyond the boxcars. I do think he could have 30-point seasons in the NHL, and could easily be the best offensive defender among the three players emerging for Edmonton. His Oilers season (44, 0-6-6) gave purpose, hope and flight to the season for this old-timer. Well done, young man.
  2. Brandon Davidson 3-4-7. I’ve always cheered for him, and you’d like the story to end well. However, the truth is Edmonton has so much young defensive depth right now he’s likely to find another organization at the end of his entry level deal. Every once in awhile a player stays for a few contracts and finds his way, and Davidson has considerable defensive ability. I suspect he was born in the wrong era. I’m cheering like hell, though.
  3. Jeremie Blain ECHL. No longer in the organization, he played only 6 AHL games with no points. I remember being pissed they didn’t sign him, but so far it doesn’t seem to have mattered. Blain has posted some good ECHL numbers, so you never know.

GOAL

  1. Tyler Bunz 13, 2.55 .903. Bunz has had a wicked tour through pro hockey, stopping in Stockton, Bakersfield and Oklahoma City. I don’t think he’s going to have an NHL career, but goalies and knuckleball pitchers make liars of us all.

I think the 2010 entry draft is viewed universally by Oiler fans as a massive disappointment. I’ve always wondered why people are so angry, and have concluded that we all view 2nd round picks as having a certain value—no matter the year. In order to make the point I’m going to list the second round of the 2010 NHL entry draft by games played, and ask you (after you read it) a few questions.

  1. Justin Faulk 180
  2. Devante Smith-Pelly 75
  3. Tyler Toffoli 72
  4. Jon Merrill 52
  5. Jason Zucker 47
  6. Martin Marincin 44
  7. Johan Larsson 29
  8. Ryan Spooner 27
  9. Brett Bulmer 14
  10. Alex Petrovic 13
  11. Calle Jarnkrok 12
  12. Tyler Pitlick 10
  13. Patrick Nemeth 8
  14. Christian Thomas 3
  15. Kent Simpson 1

Okay the questions:

  • Marincin looks like one of the best young players taken in this round. Agree?
  • Pitlick was called up with a lot of the season remaining. If he had played more games, would that influence your feeling about his future?
  • The Oilers had three picks in this round, and two made their debut this season. Is it too early to judge this draft?
  • Does the fact that half of the second round is still trying to get to the NHL change your view of the Oilers draft?
  • How many players on this list, in your opinion, are clearly better than Marincin?
  • Is it possible that a player not yet on this list, and chosen in the second round 2010, could still have a career?

RANKING THE 2010 OILER DRAFT

  1. L Taylor Hall
  2. D Martin Marincin
  3. R Tyler Pitlick
  4. D Brandon Davidson
  5. L Curtis Hamilton
  6. C Ryan Martindale
  7. G Tyler Bunz
  8. F Kellen Jones
  9. D Jeremie Blain
  10. L Drew Czerwonka

I’ll be honest, I thought this would be a much better draft. It looks like the Oilers will get two players (impact player Taylor Hall and fine defender Martin Marincin) from their 11 selections. Beyond that, Pitlick should get another chance or two, and if he can stay healthy I like his chances—he always looked like a player to me. We cheer and hope for Davidson, Hamilton, Bunz and Jones, and we remember Kristians Pelss and keep him in our hearts. (Barons photos by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved).

COMBINING THE 2010-2013 DRAFTS (RANKED)

  1. L Taylor Hall
  2. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  3. R Nail Yakupov
  4. D Darnell Nurse
  5. D Oscar Klefbom
  6. D Martin Marincin
  7. C Greg Chase
  8. D Dillon Simpson
  9. C Bogdan Yakimov
  10. C Jujhar Khaira
  11. D Martin Gernat
  12. R Tyler Pitlick
  13. R Tobias Rieder
  14. L Marco Roy
  15. R Jackson Houck
  16. L Mitchell Moroz
  17. D David Musil
  18. L Anton Slepyshev
  19. D Erik Gustafsson
  20. D Brandon Davidson
  21. R John McCarron
  22. D Ben Betker
  23. D Joey Laleggia
  24. L Aidan Muir
  25. L Curtis Hamilton
  26. C Kyle Platzer
  27. C Travis Ewanyk
  28. L Daniil Zharkov
  29. C Ryan Martindale
  30. G Tyler Bunz
  31. G Frans Tuohimaa
  32. F Kellen Jones
  33. L Evan Campbell
  34. D Jeremie Blain
  35. G Samu Perhonen
  36. L Drew Czerwonka Checkers vs. Oklahoma City Barons 1-13-13

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56 Responses to "PRESSURE DROP"

  1. nqmt says:

    LT, the problem with being a perpetually losing team is people are looking for saviors instead of players…if this was a better team, ~3 NHL players in a draft class would be considered very good…it’s just unfortunately that the previous 10 years did not bear as much fruit as they should have and the latest few draft classes are getting overly scrutinized because of it

  2. barry.moore23 says:

    Guys, off topic but watching the Oil Kings vs London on NHL Network now. Rats I wish I could watch the CHL all the time. Good stuff. We have secured a USHL franchise here in Bloomington, IL for next season. Not sure how they compare. Go Oil Kings !,,

  3. Lowetide says:

    nqmt:
    LT, the problem with being a perpetually losing team is people are looking for saviors instead of players…if this was a better team, ~3 NHL players in a draft class would be considered very good…it’s just unfortunately that the previous 10 years did not bear as much fruit as they should have and the latest few draft classes are getting overly scrutinized because of it

    Sure, I agree with everything you say. However, if the ‘line in the sand’ is two good players for a successful draft, and that’s probably a little high, then Hall, Marincin and Pitlick should be considered a nice trend (since Hall was #1 overall).

    But I’ve read about 1,000,000 lines about Pitlick being a waste of skin, even though he was in the first round of Bob McKenzie’s final draft list. I think it’s fine to approach things from difficult angles, glass half full types like me need the vinegar people to keep things real.

    Having said that, it’s also important to agree on what things really are, so that someone, somewhere, owns the truth.

  4. Lowetide says:

    barry.moore23:
    Guys,off topic but watching the Oil Kings vs London on NHL Network now. Rats I wish I could watch the CHL all the time. Good stuff. We have secured a USHL franchise here in Bloomington, IL for next season. Not sure how they compare. Go Oil Kings !,,

    Very good hockey from what I’m told. Do you follow Kirk Luedeke and the United States of Hockey on twitter? Fine, fine men.

  5. theres oil in virginia says:

    Marincin looks like one of the best young players taken in this round. Agree?

    Yep.

    Pitlick was called up with a lot of the season remaining. If he had played more games, would that influence your feeling about his future?

    Nope. I’ve never seen what others see in this player. I’m not saying they’re (you’re) wrong, I just don’t see it. I hope he becomes a legit NHL player, but I doubt it happens. He’s still pretty young.

    The Oilers had three picks in this round, and two made their debut this season. Is it too early to judge this draft?

    Nope. Well, maybe not a final judgement, but that should wait a decade, at least.

    Does the fact that half of the second round is still trying to get to the NHL change your view of the Oilers draft?

    Yep. I was looking at the 2nd round of that draft just the other day. I’m finally on the same page as Lowetide! (That sound you hear is me patting myself on the back.) Marincin was a great pick.

    How many players on this list, in your opinion, are clearly better than Marincin?

    Clearly better? None. Probably/possibly better? Two, maybe three.

    Is it possible that a player not yet on this list, and chosen in the second round 2010, could still have a career?

    Of course. The likelihood is going down by the minute, though.

  6. gd says:

    Stu seems to have been solid at this draft. Obviously if they had picked Faulk or Toffolli with Hall this could have been their Duchene/O’Reilly draft, but Pitlick at least seems defendable compared to the 5 picks after him and Marancin is definitely top 10 for the second round. I’d hate to think what we would be saying if we had the 10th pick and we took McIrath instead of Fowler.

    This draft again points to that I believe it is the Oilers’ development team being the weak link versus the amateur scouting. They need to turn two of Pitlick/Marancin/Klefbom into legit top 3 line players or I think this org might be more of a lost cause than we fear.

    Things I have no clue of, but just throwing out there on the development side;

    -obviously the two assistant coaches that have been here through the whole disasterous period where no one seems to get better fundamentally.
    -The Oilers always seem to have their amateur camp right after the draft, while most teams wait a week or two. Are they maybe rushing the camp so they are not getting good training out of it.
    -I would love to see someone hired from Anaheim/Detroit/San Jose/Ottawa no matter how low in the org he is, just because they are obviously doing something better than us.

  7. sliderule says:

    The oilers took Pitlick but I remember most of talk was how they needed to pick a D in second round.There was one staring them right in the face in Faulk..Maybe they were that sure that Marinicin was the one and would be there for them.

    The Hamilton pick was strange as he had been injured more or less the whole year and worse had an older birthdate.Always wondered if his fathers interior BC connection had anything to do with it.Jason Zucker was right there for them but as he played in USA which oilers don’t scout much he like Faulk was passed over.

  8. Gordies Elbow says:

    sliderule,

    Pitlick was projected in the late first round – McKenzie had him at 25. His story, and Hamilton’s, is one of injury. You grab physical players, expect a few of them to not make it due to injury.

    I think that Pitlick’s skills (bigger, skates hard, can shoot) puts him into the “Pisani” mold. Hopefully he can stay healthy. If he can, there may be a role for him in the bottom six.

  9. frjohnk says:

    LT, what are your thoughts on the ceilings of these players on where they would fit on a line?
    We know that
    1. Taylor Hall ( 1st line LW)
    2. RNH (1st line C)
    3. Yak (1st line RW)
    4.Darnell Nurse ( 1st pairing D man)
    5. Martin Marincin ( 1st pairing D man)
    How about the guys up to 20?

  10. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    The oilers took Pitlick but I remember most of talk was how they needed to pick a D in second round.There was one staring them right in the face in Faulk..Maybe they were that sure that Marinicin was the one and would be there for them.

    The Hamilton pick was strange as he had been injured more or less the whole year and worse had an older birthdate.Always wondered if his fathers interior BC connection had anything to do with it.Jason Zucker was right there for them but as he playedin USA which oilers don’t scout much he like Faulk was passed over.

    In the Oil Change episode around this, MacGregor wanted the defenseman (Marincin) and wasn’t sure he’d be there with the Hamilton pick. The scouts wanted Pitlick, so the club took him, dealt Nash for #46 and that’s all she wrote.

    Marincin was in the discussion at 31.

  11. D says:

    I agree with some of the sentiments mentioned above. It’s more about perception than anything else. Since the Oilers decided that they are going into full blown rebuild – and putting all their resources in that direction, then significantly winning the rebuild game at the draft is what many fans would expect.

    But if the Oilers are doing the same or only slightly better than contending teams at the draft, then fans can question why. I just watched a great series between two legitimate Cup contenders that featured Smith-Pelly and Toffoli playing important roles.

  12. VanOil says:

    Griffin Reinhart is dominant at the Jr level. I can’t see how the NYI can resist playing in the NHL next year.

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    barry.moore23:
    Guys,off topic but watching the Oil Kings vs London on NHL Network now. Rats I wish I could watch the CHL all the time. Good stuff. We have secured a USHL franchise here in Bloomington, IL for next season. Not sure how they compare. Go Oil Kings !,,

    It’s a very good development league for US players (as far as I can tell).

    A lot of college kids play a year or two there before moving on. It does look like a league that leans toward suspect if you linger too long though.

    Regardless, I’m sure you’ll see some very fine hockey. last year 26 kids from the USHL were taken in the draft.

    For comparison: WHL had 33 kids.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2013e.html

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    hit “reply” instead of “edit”

    anyway, OK win. that’s great for the kids. And, with Platzer out of the Knights org. I don’t even have a minor reason to pull for them anymore.

  15. RexLibris says:

    Oil Kings beat the Knights 5-2. Kulda gets two goals and an assist.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Life moves pretty fast, if you don’t stop and look around once in awhile you might miss it.

    And I really like Edgars Kulda.

  16. Woodguy says:

    nqmt:
    LT, the problem with being a perpetually losing team is people are looking for saviors instead of players…if this was a better team, ~3 NHL players in a draft class would be considered very good…it’s just unfortunately that the previous 10 years did not bear as much fruit as they should have and the latest few draft classes are getting overly scrutinized because of it

    3 legit NHLers in one draft class is very rare.

    I think league average is 1.85 or close.

    Its lower than 2 for sure and that’s using 200 games in the NHL as a line in the sand, not necessarily what they contribute.

  17. Suntory Hanzo says:

    When I saw Taylor go into the boards like that – my first thought was “Is he going to be okay?”

    My second thought was that I was glad we were drafting first so we could take Seguin because I thought Hall was done for sure. I thought the Bruins were going to be shafted by having one of the top two lost to injury. What a rebound in the game and series.

    So glad we took Hall.

  18. VanOil says:

    As far as these things go the Pitbull/Lopez collaboration for the World Cup theme song is HoraAwful I mean a Eurovision song with no votes bad. ( I won’t link to it as you might check it out and that’s cruel)

    Brazil has wonderful music. Why would they let this crap tune ruin there party. I expect the Rexall DJ will add it to his playlist next year.

  19. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Woodguy: 3 legit NHLers in one draft class is very rare.

    I think league average is 1.85 or close.

    Its lower than 2 for sure and that’s using 200 games in the NHL as a line in the sand, not necessarily what they contribute.

    Would love to see that 1.85 figure with round 1 stripped. If the #1 OVs are going to be excluded because they should be locks then the comparison has to be for all rounds below first and the over/under is going to be well under 1.85.

  20. gcw_rocks says:

    I get annoyed with the Oilers draft record every time I look at the Blackhawk’s roster. They have NINE players they drafted OUTSIDE of the first round on thier playoff roster. Hawk’s fans suffered a long time but they came out the other side with depth players and they are still finding them. Five of those nine were drafted since the Eberle draft.

    That’s the bar. That’s excellence. Why should we expect less from the Oilers?

  21. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,
    3 legit NHLers in one draft class is very rare.
    I think league average is 1.85 or close.
    Its lower than 2 for sure and that’s using 200 games in the NHL as a line in the sand, not necessarily what they contribute

    The average draft class does not come with 3 second round picks, including top of the round. Apples and oranges.

  22. Lowetide says:

    gcw_rocks:
    I get annoyed with the Oilers draft record every time I look at the Blackhawk’sroster. They have NINE players they drafted OUTSIDE of the first round on thier playoff roster.Hawk’s fans suffered a long time but they came out the other side with depth players and they are still finding them. Five of those nine were drafted since the Eberle draft.

    That’s the bar. That’s excellence. Why should we expect less from the Oilers?

    In the 2010 Entry Draft, the Chicago Blackhawks selected four players IN THE SECOND ROUND. THEY HAVE PLAYED 1 GAME IN THE NHL

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005218.html

    Honestly. We have to look at these things without getting crazy in the head.

  23. gcw_rocks says:

    Suntory Hanzo,

    Seguin had 84 points this year. Leaving the off ice stuff aside, it would be hard, I think, to make a case the Oilers would be worse off if they drafted Seguin. The point production is in the range and Seguin plays a more valuable position.

    We might have been looking at:

    Perron – Seguin – Eberle
    Yakopuv – Nuge – Gagner

    We would probably now be talking about Bennett vs Del Colle to fill the winger spot on the soft minutes line or as a replacement for Perron, and be more comfortable about trading Perron or Gagner for a defender.

    That’s not to say Hall isn’t a great pick. So far, history is showing there was two pretty equal players at the top of that draft. The Oilers would have been happy regardless of which one they picked.

  24. gcw_rocks says:

    Lowetide,
    Honestly. We have to look at these things without getting crazy in the head.

    Not sure what this means. Two of those kids are in college, no? Johns is one of their top defensive prospects and dropped 5 points in 8 games for Rockford after the college season ended.

    My point was people get angry or frustrated about the 2010 draft because it’s a symptom of a bigger problem, not because of the draft itself. And they should be.

    Let’s extend the view. The Kings have seven players they drafted outside the first round on their roster. Montreal has five. Only the rangers, of the final four, haven’t built a good chunk of their depth from the draft outside the first round.

    The Oilers depth is pathetic and failures at the draft are part of the problem.

    Btw. The rangers have an amazing nine former first round draft picks on their roster. The Kings are one better at 10. Perhaps it is good to collect former first round picks, even if they are not all your own…

  25. Lowetide says:

    gcw_rocks:
    Lowetide,
    Honestly. We have to look at these things without getting crazy in the head.

    Not sure what this means.Two of those kids are in college, no?Johns is one of their top defensive prospects and dropped 5 points in 8 games for Rockford after the college season ended.

    My point was people get angry or frustrated about the 2010 draft because it’s a symptom of a bigger problem, not because of the draft itself. And they should be.

    Let’s extend the view. The Kings have seven players they drafted outside the first round on their roster. Montreal has five.Only the rangers, of the final four, haven’t built a good chunk of their depth from the draft outside the first round.

    The Oilers depth is pathetic and failures at the draft are part of the problem.

    Btw. The rangers have an amazing nine former first round draft picks on their roster. The Kings are one better at 10.Perhaps it is good to collect former first round picks, even if they are not all your own…

    But that’s just it, we keep moving the chains in a dance to come around to rage, instead of looking at things as they are. We’re setting fire to the conversation instead of examining it.

    This thread is about the 2010 draft. I contend that you have to look at it in context, the 2010 draft is no screaming hell, especially in the second round. I point out Chicago, a team you mentioned, had FOUR PICKS IN THE SECOND ROUND AND HAVE ONE GAME TO SHOW.

    And you come back and say ‘Two of those kids are in college, no? Johns is one of their top defensive prospects and dropped 5 points in 8 games for Rockford after the college season ended.’

    Which is spot damn on. My contention is that ripping the 2010 draft is insane. Ripping the 2007 draft? Absolutely. The depth issues that plague this team go back to Alex Plante, not Curtis Hamilton.

  26. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide: In the 2010 Entry Draft, the Chicago Blackhawks selected four players IN THE SECOND ROUND. THEY HAVE PLAYED 1 GAME IN THE NHL

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005218.html

    Honestly. We have to look at these things without getting crazy in the head.

    Does that speak to the quality of the team doing the drafting though?

    Since 2008 the Edmonton Oilers have arguably drafted zero? maybe 1? player outside the first round that “should” have seen NHL ice, or that probably would have if drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks.

    Dare I even mention the Oilers 2007 debacle? That year helped lay the foundation for the Oilers record of draft day futility and did it in the first round. An excellent trifecta segue from 03 and 04.

    Oilers entire draft chart outside of Hall, RNH, and Eberle going back to 2007 looks like a bad comedy sketch.

  27. Lowetide says:

    Cabbie: I would suggest to you that if Pitlick turns into a role player, and Marincin turns into what we hope he’ll be, added to Hall, is a pretty damn good draft.

    I don’t think many will agree, but to me, based on what the second round (which is they key to the 2010 draft) delivered, that’s fair.

  28. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: 3 legit NHLers in one draft class is very rare.

    I think league average is 1.85 or close.

    Its lower than 2 for sure and that’s using 200 games in the NHL as a line in the sand, not necessarily what they contribute.

    Yeah, 18.5% is about right. Some higher, into the low 20s others lower in the 16% range. Tampa Bay in the 8% range which, you know, kind of sucks.

    I don’t have the numbers in front of me right now, but LT has them and could probably elaborate on specifics.

    Interestingly, the Canadiens over the course of the Entry Draft (’79 onwards) have a higher success percentage (based on the 200 NHL game mark) in the 2nd round than the 1st.

    And the Oilers have the lowest success percentage of any team in the first round, something around 42%. Fewer than half of their 1st round picks in franchise history have managed to play 200 NHL games or more.

    This rebuild right now isn’t just about the team in the late 2000s after the Cup run. This is systemic and I don’t think many people realize just how incredibly screwed up this organization had (tentative use of past-tense there) been.

    If you are interested in the data I collected let me know.

  29. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    I think the issue with the Oilers’ drafting is an echo of a larger dysfunction.

    Other teams draft and develop prospects and then slot them into positions where they can succeed, but we are forgetting that some of those teams already have a reasonably successful roster structure in place.

    Chicago, Anaheim, LA, and so on. These teams can take players in the 2nd round and let them develop then bring them in to play 2nd line wing alongside a couple of good veterans like Selanne and Koivu.

    The Blackhawks can bring a kid like Hjalmarsson in and let him learn behind Campbell, Seabrook and Keith. Detroit can draft Jarnkrok and then have him play behind Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and so on.

    The Oilers? Here Taylor, we’re going to pair you with Shawn Horcoff on the 1st line so he can teach you about how long a shift ought to be in the NHL.

    The kids are going to be baptised by fire and it isn’t going to be pretty. But like most trailblazing generations, with luck they’ll make it easier on the next round of kids that come along. Guys like Chase, Khaira, and with luck whatever young man they select this June.

    Here’s an interesting thought to help us all sleep easy tonight: what if Yakupov had come before Hall, Nugent-Hopkins or even Eberle?

  30. OrangeandBlue says:

    I was able to watch Hamilton a lot as a junior player and was pretty excited about him being in the Oilers organization. I thought he might pan out as a good secondary scorer someday because he was scoring at a decent rate and made the World Junior team. He had some rough spots, but seemed like he had a legit shot. It doesn’t look like he’s going to pan out in this organization, but he did seem like a decent bet at one time. Just watching game 1 of the 1990 Stanley Cup Finals…man I forgot how much I was hating on Bourque this game.

  31. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide:
    Cabbie: I would suggest to you that if Pitlick turns into a role player, and Marincin turns into what we hope he’ll be, added to Hall, is a pretty damn good draft.

    I don’t think many will agree, but to me, based on what the second round (which is they key to the 2010 draft) delivered, that’s fair.

    Fair points. Marincin looks good but would he have seen ice in Chicago? Pitlick more on the meh side but maybe.

    It’s outside 2010 and for a long ways back that things haven’t been great.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Rex: For sure, but from 2010+ (imo) we’re just talking outliers. When we talk about Marincin, well that’s really unusual for a young D to play that way so soon after turning pro.

    I can make a list: Faulk, Marincin, Gallagher, Saad, Shaw. They are outliers, guys who have emerged way sooner than we should have expected imo.

    Now, if I write a post saying that Moroz is displaying Lucic-type skill levels, the whistles blow and the crazy gets real on this blog. And, you know what, rightly so.

    So, then, may I ask something? When I write an article suggesting the 2010 entry draft is actually better than many people think (which is different than the draft going as well as hoped), all I see is Saad, Shaw, Gallagher, Faulk, but interestingly, no Marincin.

    So which is it? Because I’ll tell you, from where I sit it’s damn near impossible to say something positive about the Oilers 2010-13 drafts, and imo there are actual positives.

    I understand it’s a noxious time to be an Oiler fan, but I sincerely believe there are things worth discussing between the time I say “hey, looks like they may get something out of this’ and “goddamit Brandon Saad.”

  33. VanOil says:

    Lowetide,

    If your going to delve into that level of crazy and suggest that the Oilers have done some good things in the draft 2010-2013 I am going to go even further; Tambellini did a good job fixing the Oilers development system. The Oil Kings, Condors and Barrons are an enviable development platform full of good coaches an smart people.

    Shame about the shit show in the NHL.

  34. Lowetide says:

    VanOil:
    Lowetide,

    If your going to delve into that level of crazy and suggest that the Oilers have done some good things in the draft 2010-2013 I am going to go even further; Tambellini did a good job fixing the Oilers development system. The Oil Kings, Condors and Barrons are an enviable development platform full of good coaches an smart people.

    Shame about the shit show in the NHL.

    Agreed. I well remember the mess that was the Oilers system before OKC. Very good point.

  35. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: Yeah, 18.5% is about right. Some higher, into the low 20s others lower in the 16% range. Tampa Bay in the 8% range which, you know, kind of sucks.

    I don’t have the numbers in front of me right now, but LT has them and could probably elaborate on specifics.

    Interestingly, the Canadiens over the course of the Entry Draft (’79 onwards) have a higher success percentage (based on the 200 NHL game mark) in the 2nd round than the 1st.

    And the Oilers have the lowest success percentage of any team in the first round, something around 42%. Fewer than half of their 1st round picks in franchise history have managed to play 200 NHL games or more.

    This rebuild right now isn’t just about the team in the late 2000s after the Cup run. This is systemic and I don’t think many people realize just how incredibly screwed up this organization had (tentative use of past-tense there) been.

    If you are interested in the data I collected let me know.

    That sounds really interesting.

    Are you going to publish what you found with some analysis?

    Also,

    I was surfing some teams and saw how San Jose drafted from 2001-2008 and how it set them up.

    A lot those players were traded away (some badly like Ehrhoff, but most were ok trades, some very good)

    They really knocked it out of the park in 2003 and 2007.

    2007 Entry 9 1 Logan Couture
    2007 Entry 173 6 Nick Bonino
    2007 Entry 201 7 Justin Braun
    2007 Entry 203 7 Frazer McLaren

    2006 Entry 36 2 Jamie McGinn

    2005 Entry 8 1 Devin Setoguchi
    2005 Entry 35 2 Marc-Edouard Vlasic

    2004 Entry 94 3 Thomas Greiss
    2004 Entry 126 4 Torrey Mitchell

    2003 Entry 6 1 Milan Michalek
    2003 Entry 16 1 Steve Bernier
    2003 Entry 47 2 Matt Carle
    2003 Entry 205 7 Joe Pavelski

    2001 Entry 20 1 Marcel Goc
    2001 Entry 106 4 Christian Ehrhoff

    They whiffed entirely in 2002. Goes to show even good drafting teams can miss.

    I left Fraser in there as he is in the NHL, but your mileage may vary.

  36. raventalon40 says:

    Lowetide Pitlick was called up with a lot of the season remaining. If he had played more games, would that influence your feeling about his future?

    Could easily be argued the other way as well, as in he only got called up for the cup of tea “evaluation” phase.

  37. Racki says:

    I’m not sure if it has been said yet, but I don’t think we fans put enough stock into other contributing factors of a good draft. I’m talking about how the player is developed… and who the player is surrounded by on a team. I think most would say the Oilers of the past few decade have done a bad job on the development, and also at surrounding these picks with good players.

    There were quite a few years where this team was destroyed by injuries and the replacement players were these young guys that likely had no business in the NHL yet. I don’t think I’d be out of line saying a lot of players have been fast tracked to the NHL here (nor would I be an original in saying so). I suspect if you took several of the players the Oilers drafted the past few years and had other teams draft them instead.. I’d bet there would be quite a few that would fair much better.

    This to me is why we often see guys have better careers once they’ve moved on.

    I’m not going to dwell on the past with this.. I think MacTavish is a smart guy and sees this too and will do his best to fill out this team with more veteran players.

    Tambellini gets a lot of credit from some people for revitalizing the minor team. I’ll give him a tip of the hat for the Barons. I’ll even give him a tip of the hat for acquiring some really good career minor league veterans to help make that team a lot better. But I have to wonder.. why didn’t ever do that for the NHL club? (acquire filler players) Anyways, I said I wouldn’t dwell.. so I should stick to my word :P I just hope MacTavish can find those filler players so we don’t have to see Jujhar Khaira playing 15 mins a game as a 20 year old.

    I’m as excited as anyone to see new kids come in here and play, but it would be fantastic if we could stock up on these guys for a while and see them slowly introduced to the team like the good, patient teams do it. Of course, I’m all for guys getting some opportunity here if they’re absolutely killing it in a different league, but ya… I think it’s denying these guys their best chance at success when you make them sink or swim at too early an age.

    Again, not original thoughts here, just think it should be food for thought when you assess drafted players. Is player A on team X that much better than our guy? Or is he just ahead of the curve because of the opportunity he’s been given? (be that sheltered minutes, a lot of time in the AHL, reliable linemates to play with, better systems, etc..). That’s not to say that MBS hasn’t had his duds.

  38. Racki says:

    Lowetide:
    Cabbie: I would suggest to you that if Pitlick turns into a role player, and Marincin turns into what we hope he’ll be, added to Hall, is a pretty damn good draft.

    I don’t think many will agree, but to me, based on what the second round (which is they key to the 2010 draft) delivered, that’s fair.

    Pitlick disappoints for what he was drafted for, but I’ve wiped my memory of that and see him as a pretty quality checker with potential to chip in a bit of offense. I think he’ll stick. And to me, any player that sticks (on merit) is a good pick. Shame, the injury last year.

  39. Hammers says:

    You keep putting Nurse ahead of both Klefbom and now Marincin and I don’t get it. So far Nurse is a good prospect and the other two show they can actually play in the show . When Nurse plays for the Oilers and if he does we can rank him .. If he was guns ablazing for OKL every game maybe but by what I saw he was hit & miss for the Barons and that is a concern . He needs another year in junior then 1 in OKL and by then the other 2 will have between 150-200 games in the NHL .For me Marincin goes to #3 and Klefbom to # 5 . Nurse to 6 . Yak falls to #4 . My opinion .

  40. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy:
    I was surfing some teams and saw how San Jose drafted from 2001-2008 and how it set them up.

    A lot those players were traded away (some badly like Ehrhoff, but most were ok trades, some very good)

    They really knocked it out of the park in 2003 and 2007.

    2007 Entry91Logan Couture
    2007 Entry1736Nick Bonino
    2007 Entry2017Justin Braun
    2007 Entry2037Frazer McLaren

    2006 Entry362Jamie McGinn

    2005 Entry81Devin Setoguchi
    2005 Entry352Marc-Edouard Vlasic

    2004 Entry943Thomas Greiss
    2004 Entry1264Torrey Mitchell

    2003 Entry61Milan Michalek
    2003 Entry161Steve Bernier
    2003 Entry472Matt Carle
    2003 Entry2057Joe Pavelski

    2001 Entry201Marcel Goc
    2001 Entry1064Christian Ehrhoff

    Nice list but the Hawks is better. Of course I”m based.

    Their 2003 topped the Sharks with Seabrook, Crawford and Byfuglien and they’d added Keith and Wisniewski in 02.

    2004 brought Bolland and Bickell in the second round and Troy Brouwer in the 7th. (those 3 helped offset the unmitigated disaster that was Cam Barker but he became Leddy so that’s not too bad.)

    Salary cap and Dale Tallon got in the way of what might have been a bigger dynasty than the Oilers in the 80′s

  41. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    You keep putting Nurse ahead of both Klefbom and now Marincin and I don’t get it. So far Nurse is a good prospect and the other two show they can actually play in the show . When Nurse plays for the Oilers and if he does we can rank him .. If he was guns ablazing for OKL every game maybe but by what I saw he was hit & miss for the Barons and that is a concern . He needs another year in junior then 1 in OKL and by then the other 2 will have between 150-200 games in the NHL .For me Marincin goes to #3 and Klefbom to # 5 . Nurse to 6 . Yak falls to #4 . My opinion .

    My prospect list is based on ceiling, wide range of skills, and probability of delivering on promise. For me, Nurse ranks ahead of Klefbom and Marincin for those reasons. Half-seasons or portions of a season can fool you.

    If you believe, as I do, that the 2013 draft was deeper than 2010 or 2011, then Nurse was taken higher in a deeper draft (although 2011 is turning into a very good one). He has a range of skills, we can see him playing a tough game with range and mobility, and he can help get the puck up.

    I don’t think Nurse possesses the shot to be a PP contributor. Beyond that, he’s pretty qualified for the NHL game.

  42. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    What’s interesting about the draft record of the Hawks that LT posted:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005218.html

    is that it is perfectly reasonable to marvel at the post 2nd round picks that have hit in the last few years (Shaw, Kruger, Smith), but it isn’t yet clear to me that these picks represent stellar scouting/drafting in context.

    There’s a bucket load of players taken higher in the draft since 2008 that haven’t shown much of anything (of course, it is still very, very early here for these prospects and there are some nice things: Saad, Pirri).

    But, we have to allow for this hypothetical: if you whiff when you are supposed to hit and hit when you are supposed to whiff… it certainly makes you more interesting, but not necessarily the greatest model for others to study as it appears to be a real outlier, perhaps with a lot of luck blowing it upstream.

  43. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Rex: For sure, but from 2010+ (imo) we’re just talking outliers. When we talk about Marincin, well that’s really unusual for a young D to play that way so soon after turning pro.

    I can make a list: Faulk, Marincin, Gallagher, Saad, Shaw. They are outliers, guys who have emerged way sooner than we should have expected imo.

    Now, if I write a post saying that Moroz is displaying Lucic-type skill levels, the whistles blow and the crazy gets real on this blog. And, you know what, rightly so.

    So, then, may I ask something? When I write an article suggesting the 2010 entry draft is actually better than many people think (which is different than the draft going as well as hoped), all I see is Saad, Shaw, Gallagher, Faulk, but interestingly, no Marincin.

    So which is it? Because I’ll tell you, from where I sit it’s damn near impossible to say something positive about the Oilers 2010-13 drafts, and imo there are actual positives.

    I understand it’s a noxious time to be an Oiler fan, but I sincerely believe there are things worth discussing between the time I say “hey, looks like they may get something out of this’ and “goddamit Brandon Saad.”

    Completely agree.

    Unfortunately, the gospel for the draft years that you are looking at is the same thing that fans have been force-fed these past few seasons: patience.

    It is easy to look at a draft two or three years out and say “how on earth could they have passed on this guy?”, but it is never that simple and when you are having this argument you are fighting an innate hindsight bias.

    I’ve usually had to resort to narrative vs narrative. People want to argue that their team is poor at drafting because they didn’t take player A or player B in whichever round. So I mention that Shea Weber was taken in the 2nd round, after Nashville had already selected two defensemen ahead of him. Or that the Detroit Red Wings waited until nearly the end of the draft to select Datsyuk or Zetterberg.

    I think the way you are covering the 2010+ drafts is correct. Take a look at who was selected, whether any of them were reach picks and if so when where they taken. Identify value selections (eg: Chase, 2013), and provide modified credit for 1st overall selections. Then track those selected and parse out development from coaching, injury, player investment and so on.

    Regarding the Lucic/Moroz angle: if there is one thing positive that lives on from the Robbie Schremp experience its that fans can be reminded to take a more conservative approach to prospect expectations. Case in point – Gaudreau in Calgary. Fans there are beginning to become a shade delirious at this prospect’s potential. It will be intriguing to watch him this coming season. Oilers fans know heartbreak and I can’t help but wonder if we’ll see something similar for Flames fans with this young man.

  44. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    I sent the info to LT to work with because I just don’t have the time anymore to work around th publishing it through the usual channels (Nation).

    San Jose is a team with a solid drafting record, but the top performers, if I recall correctly, were Buffalo (apparently that crazy video-scouting thing wasn’t such a bad idea), Anaheim, Ottawa, Montreal, and I think San Jose. Detroit is, surprisingly, just above average, but when they hit on a player it is usually a home-run. Makes the strikeouts less damaging.

    With regards to Chicago, take a look at their early 2000s draft records. They may have found two or three players, but they would often go into the selection with 14 or even 17 draft picks. Then check out the 2005 and 2006 drafts where they got Hjalmarsson and Toews, respectively. Not much else happening in either of those years.

  45. Andy P says:

    The good news is that we do, right now, have a good minor league system, that is, if having the Oil Kings and the Oil Barons consistently hitting the playoffs.

    That comes to a screeching halt when the poor buggers hit the NHL team. I wonder why.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris,

    The Size! folks are going to be watching JG like a hawk.

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris:
    Woodguy,

    I sent the info to LT to work with because I just don’t have the time anymore to work around th publishing it through the usual channels (Nation).

    San Jose is a team with a solid drafting record, but the top performers, if I recall correctly, were Buffalo (apparently that crazy video-scouting thing wasn’t such a bad idea), Anaheim, Ottawa, Montreal, and I think San Jose. Detroit is, surprisingly, just above average, but when they hit on a player it is usually a home-run. Makes the strikeouts less damaging.

    With regards to Chicago, take a look at their early 2000s draft records. They may have found two or three players, but they would often go into the selection with 14 or even 17 draft picks. Then check out the 2005 and 2006 drafts where they got Hjalmarsson and Toews, respectively. Not much else happening in either of those years.

    One of the problems in evaluating team records is that we have to account for changes of GM, Scouts and strategy (i.e., the GM/Scouts could stay the same but undergo a radical change of strategy at some point).

    We tend to note the different eras for Oilers, but have to for the other teams as well, if we’re going to be comprehensive.

    (I’m not saying anyone isn’t doing this, or isn’t aware of it… just adding it as a thing to keep in mind)

    ———
    Wilson saying the Sharks use Corsi for their picks was a kind of strategic move that would be interesting to track.

  48. sliderule says:

    RexLibris,

    If you want to look at percentage of picks that played at least 20 games in nhl this season the oilers don’t look to good.
    They have had 14 percent of their picks during the Stu era 2008-13 who played some this season.
    This is with all the top first round picks.
    The ducks had 28 percent play 20 games or more this season.If you look at Kings ,Avs Wild and Jackets they are all over 20 percent .
    Playoff teams who not many years ago struggled.

  49. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I tried to factor in GM changes as well with a rolling time line that shows GM tenure, team finish overall, and draft success percentage as well as Stanley Cup championships.

    I figured I might tease out some insight into which GMs were better drafting GMs than others, and I don’t recall any such pattern becoming readily identifiable. Maybe someone else could find it, but it was a cursory glance on my part at that stage.

  50. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    RexLibris,

    The Size! folks are going to be watching JG like a hawk.

    Yep, he’s a media darling in waiting.

    The narrative is that he is sublimely skilled and has had to fight an uphill battle his whole life with people telling him he’s not big enough and so he’ll just take that fight to the NHL next.

    Maybe he does make it, but every time I read or hear about this prospect or that arriving in the NHL with a bang I’m reminded of Robert Nilsson’s first NHL game. Scored a goal, looked like Magic Man 2.0. And then.

    If the Flames could bring Gaudreau in behind heavy shelter on the left side, then perhaps. This is why I had argued that it might be in their best interests to try and acquire Evander Kane.

  51. RexLibris says:

    sliderule,

    True, but the difference there is that those teams have a more or less fully developed core now.

    If the Oilers are still struggling with this process in four years when Hall and company have grown up, then we’ve got an organizational problem.

  52. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Size

    I expect Gaudreau will flourish in Calgary the same way Marty St. Louis did.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I expect Gaudreau will flourish in Calgary the same way Marty St. Louis did.

    zing!

  54. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: it is perfectly reasonable to marvel at the post 2nd round picks that have hit in the last few years (Shaw, Kruger, Smith), but it isn’t yet clear to me that these picks represent stellar scouting/drafting in context.

    I wonder how much of their success represents stellar coaching? None of those dudes looked like much of anything when they first got to Chicago. But Q has nurtured them nicely, sheltered them appropriately, and found roles where they can be serious positive contributors to the cause. All the while they seem to be getting better at hockey.

  55. Racki says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    See my long rant above… I think some of our “draft duds” have been the product of bad development/rushing/bad coaching, etc.. whereas the reverse for some teams’ prospects.

  56. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I expect Gaudreau will flourish in Calgary the same way Marty St. Louis did.

    That’s the deep-seated concern amongst fans there as well, especially with Burke more or less at the helm. They worry that Gaudreau will be flushed because of his Gritchart and that the franchise will lose out on another St. Louis.

    I’m not convinced that happens. I think we may have another Theoren Fleury on our hands – tough little player who regularly makes the Oilers’ fans “hate-that-guy” list.

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