TRUST YOUR BOARD

Word today that Dale Tallon is shopping number one overall, and that makes terrific sense. It isn’t clear that the first pick has more value than number three, so why not squeeze out an asset for the pleasure of selecting first? For the Oilers, there would seem to be little value in dealing up, the club apparently values four players above the rest (Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett) and possibly content to let the chips fall as they may.

I do have one lingering thought about this year’s draft, though. If the Oilers believe Aaron Ekblad is the best player for their group, and the payment isn’t too dear, why not trade up? I don’t have an answer about the best player available in this draft. As I spend more time with it, I’m beginning to wonder if we should be talking about Nikolaj Ehlers more in regard to the top of the draft.

This sometimes happens when you stare at something too long. The mind plays tricks, the heart begins to rule the brain. My sincere hope is that the Oilers scouts identify the best player available, and the General Manager gets that player.

If it’s Ekblad, and they trade up? I’m fine with it, as long as the price isn’t too dear. Draisaitl at #3? Sure. Bennett? You bet. From here, I don’t see how the Oilers can lose at this year’s entry draft.

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59 Responses to "TRUST YOUR BOARD"

  1. Zangetsu says:

    I know this is kinda a special year, but I still see eckblad being there at 3, just judging from history.Call it a hunch. If there is a way to pry that pick away from tallon without moving our own, I do that for sure. I don’t know what it would take. Simpson, petry, and perron plus next years second?

  2. VanOil says:

    I would like Florida to select Ekblad because then a proven defender like Kulikov or Campbell might shake free. The Oilers need a proven defender desperately and a defensive prospect not at all.

    I would fully endorse Calgary trading up though, as Ekblad has a higher bust potential than any of the C’s and it would relive my stress of the Oilers passing on a guy who becomes a star in Cow town. If Ekblad becomes a star player for them in 5 years I will have to deal with that then for now I am happier he end up there than one of the C’s.

  3. sliderule says:

    If oilers can pick Ekblad.
    Perron stays.
    If oilers don’t get a chance at Ekblad the German is the pick.
    Perron then to be traded for the mythical number one D.

  4. Survioil says:

    I guess the question is, if Eckbad is number 1 with a bullet on your board.

    Does what it takes to get that pick (your pick and upper tier player, 9 or 10, card) more or less that it takes to get a living , breathing No.1 NHL now d-man.?

  5. Rondo says:

    LT,

    How much does Nikolaj Ehlers play with Drouin ?

    Oilers really don’t need a small left-winger.

  6. Rondo says:

    I think most teams say they would consider trading the #1 pick. Unless it is a Nathan Mackinnon type player.

  7. Truth says:

    Given that there is a clear top tier of 3-4 in this draft I think any of the teams that pick outside of those spots would provide the best offer to Florida. I’m sure Florida would love to pick up Klefbom and 3rd overall to draft the player they had at #1 on their board anyway, but all of the other GM’s in slots 1-4 have to think they may get their guy at their current position without giving up any assets.

    I could see a team like Toronto making a splash to pick up Sam Bennett at #1. They are out of the range of top tier picks in this draft and should realize their roster needs some major work.

  8. danny says:

    If a GM is shopping the #1 overall, he isn’t looking for a top-up IMO. You put it on the market for a home run offer… unless of course you are 100% certain your guy is gonna be available at 3 and you get a valuable player in additon.

    First overall picks are valuable marketing commodities, and in a starving market like FLA, that carries value. So I doubt it happens, a GM may think it’s a good deal, the bean counters probably disagree.

    ex: Yakupov Jerseys.

  9. Lowetide says:

    No way I trade Yakupov for the first pick. The rebuild continues.

  10. speeds says:

    “The rebuild continues” is not a good reason to not do the deal, IMO.

    If you don’t think the value is there, that’s one thing, but the possibility that it delays the rebuild a bit isn’t enough of a reason to not make the deal, IMO, if you think the value is there.

  11. Bushed says:

    Just got my season seat renewal package. Nice glossy pamphlet with lots of pics of Hall, Ebs, Schultz, even one of Snowpants in there.

    But no Yakupov to be seen anywhere.

    Let the speculation begin…

  12. danny says:

    Lowetide:
    No way I trade Yakupov for the first pick. The rebuild continues.

    Me neither. Not sure if you thought that’s what I meant.

    Jerseys are a gold mine.

  13. danny says:

    My guess, the value for FLA, lies in teams picking 5th-8th. Theres the chance a top 4 guy slips, and you get an established top 6er in addition to the pick.

  14. Crooked says:

    If any of the top 3 teams do trade down, I’d bet on the Islanders being involved. Isles have two 2nds, two 3rds & two 4ths this year, as well as several good prospects. Griffin Reinhart & Aaron Ekblad first pairing for the next decade would take some of the sting out of the terrible Vanek deal.

  15. stevezie says:

    I think the only way they lose this draft is by losing a trade, which is why I would be hesitant to make one. I think there is more to be lost than gained.

    LT also has a great deal more trust in the board than I do. I think scouts can give rough percentages as to how likely a player will be to turn out, but they can say anything with any kind of certainty. Time and time again great players go late and bad players go early. Each pick is a lottery ticket, and where you pick just changes the percentages.

    Right now, from everything I’ve read, all four top picks have the same percentage attached. I think it would be a mistake to give anything for the privilege of choosing which equal-value lottery ticket appeals to us more.

    Before someone says, “What if your scout says one is a better ticket?”, I have little faith in an individual scout. Few, if any, have shown a reliable ability to be better than the game. I trust the scouting community, and the scouting community says it is a toss up. Don’t pay for the privilege of going with your gut as opposed to taking the leftovers of the other guy’s gut.

  16. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    “This sometimes happens when you stare at something too long. The mind plays tricks, the heart begins to rule the brain”

    Otherwise knows as the Nathan Mackinnon effect. After watching him for years 9/10 of McKenzie’s scouts temporarily lost their minds obsessing on the latest small sample sizes.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=426318

  17. Ryan says:

    This is a weird year…

    Where’s LT’s favorite? Why is Lowetide not pushing his guy?

    I can’t remember Lt’s guy during the Taylor/Tyler debate though I do recall a lot of love for Tyler Seguin here since he’s a pivot.

    In the Nuge draft year, LT was pumping Couturier’s tires forever, but slowly came around towards the Nuge IIRC.

    Then in the Murray vs. Yak draft year, LT was all Yak all day long…

    Last year, I think it was Monahan except he was off board when the Oilers picked…

    this year, no hint of who Lowetide has in his cross hairs? wtf? :)

  18. theres oil in virginia says:

    “It isn’t clear that the third pick has more value than number one”

    I don’t think that reads right.

  19. book¡je says:

    “From here, I don’t see how the Oilers can lose at this year’s entry draft.”

    Oh ye of little faith. I am sure they will find some way.

  20. book¡je says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    “It isn’t clear that the third pick has more value than number one”

    I don’t think that reads right.

    A problem with that I don’t be seeing.

  21. BasketKate says:

    I’ve been reading for awhile but I had to create a user account as an outreach for help. OK…*deep breath*… I had a dream about the draft the other night.

    Players I didn’t recognize/remember went 1 & 2 but the sense was that they were unexpected. The Oilers choose Ekblad at # 3….but he refuses to come to the podium! Optics… not good. Obviously I felt rather dismayed but it just seemed like “of course this would happen”.

    Also: Flames choose… Virtanen? Only other name I remember…which is weird.

    I’m not claiming prophecy. I’m just worried about the effect these recent Oilers seasons/high draft picks are having on me. WHY AM I DREAMING ABOUT THIS?!

    Anyways…I enjoy your blog Sir Lowetide! Keep up the good work. :)

  22. Hammers says:

    Actually all of the 1st 3 picks could trade down . If Florida says they will my guess is Philly wants Ekblad , home turf and all . This could actually be one of the more interesting drafts in years . Philly takes Ekblad ; Buffalo takes Bennet ; Oil trade down to NYI who take Reinhart . We still get Virtanen after Calgary gets Draistl . Problem is what do we get from NYI .

  23. Lowetide says:

    Just did a mock draft for Bleacher Report Slideshow alert

    2014 NHL Mock Draft: Projections for Top 30 Picks After 1st Round of Playoffs

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2048344-2014-nhl-mock-draft-projections-for-top-30-picks-after-1st-round-of-playoffs

  24. Lowetide says:

    danny: Me neither. Not sure if you thought that’s what I meant.

    Jerseys are a gold mine.

    lol. Not really, I knew what you meant. I wanted to put that out there (not dealing Yakupov) because I suspected it would be the subject matter in this thread.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Ryan:
    This is a weird year…

    Where’s LT’s favorite?Why is Lowetide not pushing his guy?

    I can’t remember Lt’s guy during the Taylor/Tyler debate though I do recall a lot of love for Tyler Seguin here since he’s a pivot.

    In the Nuge draft year, LT was pumping Couturier’s tires forever, but slowly came around towards the Nuge IIRC.

    Then in the Murray vs. Yak draft year, LT was all Yak all day long…

    Last year, I think it was Monahan except he was off board when the Oilers picked…

    this year, no hint of who Lowetide has in his cross hairs?wtf?:)

    It’s still to come. I like to suss things out in Mar-May and then make a decision in early June. I can say with authority that there are six guys I like a lot, but no one I love like Taylor.

  26. Lowetide says:

    BasketKate:
    I’ve been reading for awhile but I had to create a user account as an outreach for help. OK…*deep breath*… I had a dream aboutthe draft the other night.

    Players I didn’t recognize/remember went 1 & 2 but the sense was that they were unexpected. The Oilers choose Ekblad at # 3….but he refuses to come to the podium! Optics… notgood. Obviously I felt rather dismayed butit just seemed like “of course this would happen”.

    Also: Flames choose… Virtanen? Only other name I remember…which is weird.

    I’m not claiming prophecy. I’m just worried about the effect these recent Oilers seasons/high draft picks are having on me. WHY AM I DREAMING ABOUT THIS?!

    Anyways…I enjoy your blog Sir Lowetide! Keep up the good work. :)

    don’t be a stranger?!?!?! Flames pick Bennett if he’s there, one of Ekblad, Reinhart or Draisaitl if he isn’t. Or Dal Colle. Or Ehlers. Dammit!

  27. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    “The rebuild continues” is not a good reason to not do the deal, IMO.

    If you don’t think the value is there, that’s one thing, but the possibility that it delays the rebuild a bit isn’t enough of a reason to not make the deal, IMO, if you think the value is there.

    If Yakupov was in this draft, would you take him first overall?

  28. VanOil says:

    BasketKate:
    WHY AM I DREAMING ABOUT THIS?!

    Anyways…I enjoy your blog Sir Lowetide! Keep up the good work.

    I have tried alcohol as a cure for this affliction. It hasn’t worked I don’t recommend it. Mind you it is a Friday and the weathers warm…

  29. VanOil says:

    Lowetide: If Yakupov was in this draft, would you take him first overall?

    Yes

  30. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    “It isn’t clear that the third pick has more value than number one”

    I don’t think that reads right.

    The hurrier I go, the behinder I get!!!

  31. theres oil in virginia says:

    book¡je: A problem with that I don’t be seeing.

    Could just be me. My internet connection is slow today, maybe it’s rubbing off on me.

  32. gcw_rocks says:

    Given the year Yakopuv had, his relationship with his coach, and the chaos in his game, and the Oilers needs, if I thought I could come out of the draft with Ekblad as well as Bennett or Leon I would trade Yakopuv for the first overall pick.

    I get the concern over infinibuild, but in this case that would seem to be a step back for two big steps forward in terms of balancing out the Oilers roster.

  33. BasketKate says:

    Lowetide,

    Oh yes…I’m sure the Flames wouldn’t be picking Virtanen @ #4. I also hope the player the Oilers pick DOESN’T refuse to come to the podium!

    I’ll let you know if my dream prophecies become anymore clearer… ;)

  34. BasketKate says:

    VanOil: I have tried alcohol as a cure for this affliction. It hasn’t worked I don’t recommend it. Mind you it is a Friday and the weathers warm…

    It’s raining and cold and likely to snow here. Alcohol eh? I’ve heard of this…

  35. speeds says:

    Lowetide: If Yakupov was in this draft, would you take him first overall?

    At the time of his draft? Probably. But if EDM ends up trading Yakupov this summer, I’d be surprised if you wouldn’t prefer the 1OV pick ahead of whatever return EDM receives.

  36. Lowetide says:

    speeds: At the time of his draft? Probably.But if EDM ends up trading Yakupov this summer, I’d be surprised if you wouldn’t prefer the 1OV pick ahead of whatever return EDM receives.

    They’re nuts to deal him this summer. If they’d kept Hemsky? Maybe. But dealing Yakupov this summer is a lousy lousy plan.

  37. gr8one says:

    Man, if the Oilers picked Ehlers I can’t even imagine the collective aneurism fandom would have.

    Even if it was somehow proven in a measurable way that he was the BPA, selecting yet another small-ish winger would just make everyone go NUTS.

  38. speeds says:

    Lowetide: They’re nuts to deal him this summer. If they’d kept Hemsky? Maybe. But dealing Yakupov this summer is a lousy lousy plan.

    I mostly agree, but would say I think it’s likely a bad plan. You never know what someone offers, and I think it’s reasonable to think he may “play his value up” if he produces next year and you for some reason decide you want to move him at that point.

    However, if you really, truly, honestly don’t think he’ll play his way out of it, and you get an offer you like, you have to look at everything.

    Can you make a case that EDM is better off, going forward, with 7 years of Sam Reinhart than 5 years of Yakupov? I think it’s possible. I don’t know if you’d be right, but it’s probably possible.

  39. tubes says:

    Lowetide,

    LT, you love Yak like you hated Smid.

    Yak has a good chance at being a bust. His hockey IQ is poor. Ask the guys who practice with him. I love his energy and attitude but I wouldn’t pick him in the top 5 if I were the Oilers. They don’t need really skilled, one dimensional wingers. They need good C’s and D’s.

  40. gr8one says:

    Speaking of drafts, let me be the first to get on the Mikko Rantanen bandwagon of 2015.

    Not because I know anything about him, but only because he’s a big finnish C and he’s projected according to the following link to go in “the range” of where I ~hope~ we will be pickin next year.

    As we all know the Oilers need a Finn on our roster to be successful, let’s say he will be our Finn.

    http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2015/

    Mikko Rantanen, 2015, you heard it here first!

  41. Lowetide says:

    tubes:
    Lowetide,

    LT, you love Yak like you hated Smid.

    Yak has a good chance at being a bust. His hockey IQ is poor. Ask the guys who practice with him. I love his energy and attitude but I wouldn’t pick him in the top 5 if I were the Oilers. They don’t need really skilled, one dimensional wingers. They need good C’s and D’s.

    Meh. I love Yak’s ability and I love his future potential. He’s #3 for me among the #1′s but that’s still a helluva player. In order for this to make sense (trading him for a pick), the Oilers will have to admit:

    1. They drafted him in 2012, knowing he was going to be an offensive player with miles of learning in other areas.
    2. Allowed him to run free for one season.
    3. Followed that by insisting that he turn into a responsible player, benching him and taking away PP time to the detriment of player and team.
    4. finally, having efficiently reduced his value and confidence, deciding to send him along to the next organization.

    If another NHL team did this, we’d laugh until we cried. Batshit crazy, this.

  42. Pouzar says:

    I would trade Yak for the #1 in a cocaine heartbeat.

  43. Dicky94 says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree. Yak isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. The oilers will be patient with him and we should be too. Dallas is trying to turn him into a more complete player and I believe he will. Still just a rookie and everyone expects him to be a scoring machine like Bure. Which would be great! But if he ends up being Sergei Samsanov (who he reminds of). I’d be happy with that.

  44. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: It’s still to come. I like to suss things out in Mar-May and then make a decision in early June. I can say with authority that there are six guys I like a lot, but no one I love like Taylor.

    I’m kinda over getting told to throw my hands up in the air, so there.

    Even the comatose, they don’t dance and tell…

    We live in screens you’ll never see in screens… And you know…

  45. Gerta Rauss says:

    Filthy goal by P Kane-this has turned into a hockey game

  46. Gerta Rauss says:

    Trading Yak for the #1 is intriguing

    I think the issue though would be what else Tallon would want for the pick

    I can’t see FLA trading the pick straight across for Yak

  47. Marcus Oilerius says:

    If Florida is shopping the #1 pick, then they’re not hot on Ekblad.

    Seth Jones, who is arguably the best defensive prospect since Doughty, slipped to #4 last year.

    It may very well be that even if Florida keeps the pick, Bennett goes first, Reinhart second, and the Oilers will get to choose between Ekblad, Draisatl, and Dal Colle.

    I also fully expect the Flames to make a play for the #1 pick. Burke likes making a splash.

  48. frjohnk says:

    Crosby looking like Gagner on those Ranger goals tonight. Maybe there is a trade there. Gagner for Crosby but Pens would probably have to eat some salary.

  49. flyfish1168 says:

    i believe last year we wanted Monahan. If MacT knew the phlegms were drafting him I believe he would have tried to move up.

  50. bendelson says:

    BasketKate:
    I’ve been reading for awhile but I had to create a user account as an outreach for help. OK…*deep breath*… I had a dream aboutthe draft the other night.

    Players I didn’t recognize/remember went 1 & 2 but the sense was that they were unexpected. The Oilers choose Ekblad at # 3….but he refuses to come to the podium! Optics… notgood. Obviously I felt rather dismayed butit just seemed like “of course this would happen”.

    Also: Flames choose… Virtanen? Only other name I remember…which is weird.

    I’m not claiming prophecy. I’m just worried about the effect these recent Oilers seasons/high draft picks are having on me. WHY AM I DREAMING ABOUT THIS?!

    Anyways…I enjoy your blog Sir Lowetide! Keep up the good work.

    I had to laugh when reading your post. Earlier in the year I woke up distraught and in a horrible mood one day with a single phrase bouncing around in me brain

    BasketKate:
    I’ve been reading for awhile but I had to create a user account as an outreach for help. OK…*deep breath*… I had a dream aboutthe draft the other night.

    Players I didn’t recognize/remember went 1 & 2 but the sense was that they were unexpected. The Oilers choose Ekblad at # 3….but he refuses to come to the podium! Optics… notgood. Obviously I felt rather dismayed butit just seemed like “of course this would happen”.

    Also: Flames choose… Virtanen? Only other name I remember…which is weird.

    I’m not claiming prophecy. I’m just worried about the effect these recent Oilers seasons/high draft picks are having on me. WHY AM I DREAMING ABOUT THIS?!

    Anyways…I enjoy your blog Sir Lowetide! Keep up the good work.

    I had to laugh when reading your post. Earlier in the year, I woke up distraught and in a horrible mood one morning with a single phrase bouncing around in my head – “that was the worst goal I have ever fucking seen!”

    Why can’t we have nice things?
    Hell, I no longer even dream about nice things when it comes to this organisation.

    By the way, welcome!

    If you haven’t figured out some of the subtleties on this site yet, this may help clear up some confusion: with Steve Smith, up is down. If he tells you to ‘fuck off’ or to ‘go fuck yourself’ it means he is a big fan and likely in awe of your intellect… It is quite a compliment and reserved for the only very best.

    Or something like that…

  51. bendelson says:

    Damn, that double post error was poorly timed…

  52. Lowetide says:

    bendelson:
    Damn, that double post error was poorly timed…

    I think the second you is really smart.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Ladies and gentlemen, the Chicago Blackhawks! Or, why fretting over the Oilers doesn’t matter

    http://www.puckrant.com/Slapshot/WEIRD_REAL_WEIRD_

  54. G Money says:

    *** SHAMELESS SELF-PROMOTION WARNING ***

    New FanPost at C&B. On the topic of Yak … wherein I make a case that the Corgi’s seem to be telling us that something mysterious happened during young Yakupov’s season, and why the Oilers need to fix him and not trade him.

    Mysterious to me, anyway, maybe one of youse guys can figure it out.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/5/3/5677352/the-two-weeks-that-wrecked-yak

  55. Hammers says:

    Lowetide:
    Ladies and gentlemen, the Chicago Blackhawks! Or, why fretting over the Oilers doesn’t matter

    http://www.puckrant.com/Slapshot/WEIRD_REAL_WEIRD_

    Sad but true .

  56. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m still mystified how you do it, LT!

    I’m feeling damn good lately because I’ve been getting a FanPost (projects completed out of my massive ‘projects someday’ list) out maybe every two weeks if I’m lucky.

    That’s a fifth of a day for you!

    And I do know what SNAFU and FUBAR mean (no Googleizing required), but then, I think I might be older than you. Same ballpark/hockey rink, anyway.

  57. bendelson says:

    Lowetide: I think the second you is really smart.

    The truth is I have been sitting a few different versions of that Steve Smith bit for some time now, just waiting patiently for the right opportunity… and I dropped the can of corn.

    And I think that is the worst thing you have ever said to me.

    Timing and execution.

  58. Wolfpack says:

    Looking at the group of four at the top, I have come around to Bennett due to his even-strength scoring, his “jam” and the fact that I think he can help the big club sooner than a d-man can. But for the first time in many years I can honestly say I’d be fine with the Oilers trading down if they could get a quality player than can help them right away. I am tired of watching other teams in the playoffs.

  59. BasketKate says:

    bendelson,

    Thanks! I’ll keep that in mind…though sounds fairly standard for most comment threads ;).

    And I can’t say I’ve never dreamed about the Oilers before but at least it was (usually) about winning and not the bloody draft!?!

    The collective consciousness of Oilers fans is in a sad state…

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