(WHICH) SIX FOR THE OILERS

Stu MacGregor did the rounds yesterday and gave us a few nuggets to ponder as Combine week gets underway. Sounds like they’re interviewing about 75% of the available talent, and one imagines a few of those will be potential 2nd and 3rd round picks. We can hope they add a pick or two into the second day of the draft.

  • MacGregor: “There’s about six players that will be involved in that discussion. And you have to be prepared for moving and if the pick moves or not moves or if you make a decision if you’re able to obtain another pick so you’re also building yourself for not only the number three overall pick but you’re building yourself for throughout the rest of the draft. The number has to be kind of at six or seven just in case there is some type of movement. You may get an opportunity or an offer that’s just incredible that you have to think about and be able to weigh the options and weigh what you’re getting in return for a possible move from your draft position.”

Last time they gave us the list (Nail, Murray, Grigorenko, Forsberg, Reinhart) but this time we’re left to guess. May I?

 

THE LIST OF SIX EDMONTON IS CONSIDERING AT NO. 3 OVERALL

  1. D Aaron Ekblad: A possible franchise defenseman, I still think the Oilers have him No. 1.
  2. C Sam Bennett: A complete skill set, he duplicates a lot of what the Nuge delivers, but is a fine EV scorer, something that Nuge hasn’t delivered yet.
  3. C Sam Reinhart: Terrific hockey player, insane passer. God I love that skill. Another Nuge, except without the edges and forechecking anticipation.
  4. C Leon Draisaitl: Pretty much the equal of the other two offensively, and 20-25 pounds heavier than the other two. Heavy skill, heavy player. MBS said “powerful” several times in reference to the German.
  5. L Michael Dal Colle: Sniper off the wing, great shot, great skills. Seems to be universally regarded as top winger available in the draft.
  6. L Nick Ritchie: Power forward with a great shot. Edmonton will want a unique player, and he’s one (if he can score 30 a year).

The quote from MacGregor is fascinating—there’s a lot there, even if it’s misdirection—and can send us hither and yon looking for ideas and possible solutions. What could the Oilers be up to?

POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO CREATING A LIST OF SIX

  1. Oilers still can’t decide between players three through six.
  2. Oilers are looking to trade down from No. 3, possibly as low as No. 6 overall (this may mean trades with Calgary, NY Islanders or Vancouver).
  3. Oilers are looking to ADD a pick in the top six overall, meaning a major trade involving exceptional talent.
  4. I’m reading way too much into the situation.

The first option seems ludicrous. It’s the job of the scouting staff to create a list and make a recommendation, and that’s just what they’ll do. MacT may have asked for an action plan for a specific trade down to No. 5 (Islanders are always the crazy) overall, maybe finding a jet skier from the Motherland for Mikhail Prokhorov.

LOWDOWN

10 this morning, moving target for guests. I’ll talk Oil Kings with Kent Simpson (color commentator on TSN 1260) and Bruce McCurdy (Cult of Hockey) at the top of each hour, and looking to do some draft stuff as the morning rolls along. I was off Friday and Monday, want to thank Dave Jamieson and Dustin Nielson for doing fabulous jobs both days.

 

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109 Responses to "(WHICH) SIX FOR THE OILERS"

  1. Pouzar says:

    Gotta think the Oilers will be adding picks via the trade down or Gagner.

  2. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Oilers still can’t decide between players three through six.”

    “The first option seems ludicrous. It’s the job of the scouting staff to create a list and make a recommendation, and that’s just what they’ll do.”

    That’s right. What Stu was talking about was just his letter to MacT signed “Dear Prudence”

    He’s got to be ready to give MacT a name under pretty much any condition MacT might come up with in talks with the 29 other GMs. He’s also got to be able to tell MacT if there are names at spots MacT might be able to attain.

    ————-
    I don’t think Ritchie is the man at 6. Or, maybe I just hope he isn’t the man at 6.

    I could see them taking Kapanen or Virtanen or Perlini there first if they want a size winger.

    Ritchie doesn’t pass the smell test. I think MacT and Eakins look at his doughy face and say no thanks.

    http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/roster/show/id/9262

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Ritchie doesn’t pass the smell test. I think MacT and Eakins look at his doughy face and say no thanks.

    I am fully aware of how biased that is.

  4. LMHF#1 says:

    I could see trading back and getting two picks in the first working out really well. Doubt it will happen but you never know.

    Really hope they don’t move *now* assets to get a top six pick. You’re pushing Hall and Co. out of town with that much “hurry up and wait”.

    Still holding out for the Mogilny trade. Still doubting.

  5. regwald says:

    Was wondering about Kulda a bit and thought I would investigate previous Memorial Cup MVP winners. Some are big stars and some you never hear from again. A huge contrast in winners. Source is tsn.ca

    Year Player Team
    2013 Nate MacKinnon Halifax
    2012 Michael Chaput Shawinigan
    2011 Jonathan Huberdeau Saint John
    2010 Taylor Hall Windsor
    2009 Taylor Hall Windsor
    2008 Dustin Tokarski Spokane
    2007 Milan Lucic Vancouver
    2006 Alexander Radulov Quebec
    2005 Corey Perry London
    2004 Kelly Guard Kelowna
    2003 Derek Roy Kitchener
    2002 Danny Groulx Victoriaville
    2001 Kyle Wanvig Red Deer
    2000 Brad Richards Rimouski
    1999 Nick Boynton Ottawa
    1998 Chris Madden Guelph
    1997 Christian Dube Hull
    1996 Cameron Mann Peterborough
    1995 Shane Doan Kamloops
    1994 Darcy Tucker Kamloops
    1993 Ralph Intranuovo Sault Ste. Marie
    1992 Scott Niedermayer Kamloops
    1991 Pat Falloon Spokane
    1990 Iain Fraser Ottawa
    1989 Dan Lambert Swift Current
    1988 Rob DiMaio Medicine Hat
    1987 Wayne McBean Medicine Hat
    1986 Steve Chiasson Guelph
    1985 Dan Hodgson Prince Albert
    1984 Adam Creighton Ottawa
    1983 Alfie Turcotte Portland
    1982 Sean McKenna Sherbrooke
    1981 Dale Hawerchuk Cornwall
    1980 Dave Ezard Cornwall
    1979 Bart Hunter Brandon
    1978 Stan Smyl New Westminster
    1977 Barry Beck New Westminster
    1976 Dale McCourt Hamilton
    1975 Barry Smith New Westminster
    1974 Greg Joly Regina
    1973 Mark Howe Toronto
    1972 Richard Brodeur Cornwall

  6. Esa10 says:

    I see either Calgary or NYI trading to the # 1 spot because they feel the drop off is at #3 and their GM’s are known for doing bold moves.

    The other reason, Stu is talking about 6 or 7 prospects is a trade with the Leafs for Phaneuf.

    Here comes crazy theory guy

    Let’s just say that the Islanders want the 1st overall pick knowing that they do not have next years pick.

    Islanders trade two 2nd round picks to move from 1 to 5 (might cost more but there is no clear cut #1 this year) **** Also, remember that Garth Snow offered EVERY draft pick in 2012 to move from pick #5 to pick #2.

    Florida then trades back up to Edmonton in the third spot and Edmonton moves down to pick #5.

    Florida get’s Pick #3, Gagner, one of Petry/Schultz, (Oilers probably have to add more, Klefbom?)
    Oilers get Pick #5, Kulikov, Gudbranson

    Ok…that was fun.

  7. regwald says:

    And Staples posted this today.

    Kulda Draft Stock

  8. speeds says:

    My guess, based on not much, would be that the 6 are the top 5, and Nylander. But if you told me it were Perlini, or Ehlers, or ???, I certainly wouldn’t be that surprised.

  9. Rondo says:

    How about this, Florida wants Nylander and wants to trade down, they think they get him at #4 or #5. Edmonton starts talking about a potential 6th player they maybe interested in. Florida now must decide if they should trade picks with Edmonton.

  10. Hammers says:

    Feel the NYI #5 pick is the one to go after considering they loose there #1 next year and Snow doesn’t want to be in that bottom 5 or even 10 is my guess . A package around Gags plus an AHL “D” is a possibility . Gags only may only get a second & third rounder but Gags & Musil may get you there #1 or the 5th overall . . Nobody on the Canucks will come here and Burke won’t trade his pick ( he may try for an extra pick himself ) The other team along with the NYI maybe Toronto as I think anything is possible from Nonis ..

  11. Bar_Qu says:

    regwald,

    Unless Kulda’s numbers through the year warrant it, stay away. Some sucker is going to get him way too high based on a one game out-of-his-mind sample.

  12. Ice Sage says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I am fully aware of how biased that is.

    Dustin Penner’s OK with it

  13. cdean says:

    I really think that the Oilers should be looking for a way to get Phaneuf but I do not want them giving up their 3rd pick.. Even if they are getting back the 8th overall and sending Gagner back the other way, I think it is a steep price to pay for that. The trade should be more like Gagner + 2nd round next year + low defense prospect (eg. Gernat or Musil)

  14. regwald says:

    Bar_Qu:
    regwald,

    Unless Kulda’s numbers through the year warrant it, stay away. Some sucker is going to get him way too high based on a one game out-of-his-mind sample.

    He had a two good playoffs and looked great on the national stage. I agree he is going to probably go too high as a result. I think he is worthy of a pick, but I don’t just see the value as a 3rd round pick. 4th or later. But then you just never know.

  15. Jordan says:

    Based on Stu’s interview with Gregor yesterday, I don’t beleive he expects to get any picks in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Just thought it was worth mentioning.

  16. Bar_Qu says:

    regwald,

    And based on the Staples article mentioned earlier in the thread, I really don’t think he is worth better than a 4th round pick. He’d be better as a 5th or 6th round steal.

  17. Racki says:

    I feel like if Ekblad is there the Oilers should and will try and make a play for #5 from NYI. Again, imagine leaving the draft with both ekblad and draisaitl. The Oilers would need some work to bring the club to NHL level (this is needed no matter what), but this would fortify the future.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Jordan:
    Based on Stu’s interview with Gregor yesterday, I don’t beleive he expects to get any picks in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.Just thought it was worth mentioning.

    Probably basing it on 2008 when the prices were high. It really looks similar to that season, although the club does have a few picks beginning in round four.

  19. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Bar_Qu: Unless Kulda’s numbers through the year warrant it, stay away. Some sucker is going to get him way too high based on a one game out-of-his-mind sample.

    regwald: He had a two good playoffs and looked great on the national stage. I agree he is going to probably go too high as a result. I think he is worthy of a pick, but I don’t just see the value as a 3rd round pick. 4th or later. But then you just never know.

    Bar_Qu: And based on the Staples article mentioned earlier in the thread, I really don’t think he is worth better than a 4th round pick. He’d be better as a 5th or 6th round steal.

    A bit more than one game there. From New Years day Kulda OUTSCORED Lazar, Samuleson and the rest of the Oil Kings. Seilig in the Staples article puts him down as a mid-rounder specifically 4th. Early 4th round seems right. late 3rd round at most. Some teams will zero in to see what’s there now that he’s more than a 6th round flier.

  20. regwald says:

    Bar_Qu,

    Agreed.

  21. regwald says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴:
    A bit more than one game there. From New Year day OUTSCORED Lazar, Samuleson and the rest of the Oil Kings. Seilig in the Staples article puts him down as a mid-rounder specifically 4th. Early 4th round or even late 3rd seem about right. Some teams will zero in to see what’s there now that he’s more than a 6th round flier.

    Considering his previous ranking, I think 3rd is a stretch, but as you mention he has arrows going in the right direction. And he delivered on the highest stage for jr. hockey.

  22. bsmart says:

    What are the oiler draft slots this year?

  23. Woodguy says:

    Last time they gave us the list (Nail, Murray, Grigorenko, Forsberg, Reinhart) but this time we’re left to guess. May I?

    And it turns out the that the current leader in points from that draft is Galchenyuk.

    He wasn’t in Stu’s top 5.

    That’s not good.

    Who needs 6’2″ centers anyway?

  24. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    regwald: Considering his previous ranking, I think 3rd is a stretch, but as you mention he has arrows going in the right direction. And he delivered on the highest stage for jr. hockey.

    5 months outscoring his teammates is one honking big arrow. Look at the dismal odds of 4th vs. 6th rounders making the NHL and that arrow is plenty big.

    Don’t think Oilers take him. Not having 2nd or 3rd round picks odds are they pounce on someone they expect not to see early in 4.

  25. regwald says:

    Woodguy,

    The one factor here was missing most of his draft season (played 2 games) with a major knee injury.

    Played 48 games in the strike shortened season, but only 65 this season. And 3 of 15 playoff games.

    It is possible the Oilers medical staff said stay away. I know that may be a laugh given all the previous history by Oilers medical staff, but it could be true.

  26. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    Last time they gave us the list (Nail, Murray, Grigorenko, Forsberg, Reinhart) but this time we’re left to guess. May I?

    And it turns out the that the current leader in points from that draft is Galchenyuk.

    He wasn’t in Stu’s top 5.

    That’s not good.

    Who needs 6’2″ centers anyway?

    For clarity, I am very happy that the Oilers took Yak.

    He was consensus #1 and I’m good with it.

    Its not cool that MBS didn’t have Galchenyuk in his top 5

  27. Woodguy says:

    regwald:
    Woodguy,

    The one factor here was missing most of his draft season (played 2 games) with a major knee injury.

    Played 48 games in the strike shortened season, but only 65 this season. And 3 of 15 playoff games.

    It is possible the Oilers medical staff said stay away. I know that may be a laugh given all the previous history by Oilers medical staff, but it could be true.

    That may be true.

    The fact that MTL took him 3rd and the results are starting to flow tells me they got their top 5 wrong, and you can’t fuck that up.

  28. vinotintazo says:

    Woodguy: For clarity, I am very happy that the Oilers took Yak.

    He was consensus #1 and I’m good with it.

    Its not cool that MBS didn’t have Galchenyuk in his top 5

    He’s playing wing, and he was injured at the time. and has been injured a few times since then.

  29. Woodguy says:

    LT had Galchenyuk at #3 before the draft:

    C Alex Galchenyuk NHLE 11-19-30 (this is based on his 10-11 season). Frankly, I think this guy may end up making everybody look stupid for not taking him with the top pick. Exceptional puck handler and his size makes him a lock for the lottery.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/06/draft-week-post-6-final-top-30.html

    An amateur (a very good amateur) handicapping the draft better than the Oilers is not good.

  30. Woodguy says:

    vinotintazo: He’s playing wing, and he was injured at the time. and has been injured a few times since then.

    He was drafted in the same draft as Yak and has 2 more games played than Yak.

    Is Yak injury prone?

    As far as I remember, he was a C in junior.

  31. Woodguy says:

    Also, I totally called Lou fucking everyone and getting his 1st rounder back from the Kovy thing:


    WOODGUY says:
    June 13, 2012 at 8:24 am
    Off Topic re: Devils’ first round pick
    Whyshynski had this at Yahoo today:
    Tom Gulitti of the Bergen Record had this last night::
    NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly confirmed via e-mail that the deadline was today and it passed without the Devils informing the league it intended to give up the pick. That means they either intend to use it or trade it.
    I spoke with Devils GM Lou Lamoriello at approximately 6 p.m. today and he declined to discuss whether the team would give up its 2012 first-round pick. He said the deadline was not at 5 p.m. today.


    Haha!
    Lou knows that rules do not apply to him

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/06/draft-week-post-2-what-to-expect-when-trading-1.html/comment-page-1#comment-176357

  32. Lois Lowe says:

    vinotintazo: He’s playing wing.

    This seems to be the case. He’s played most at LW with Eller and Gallagher.

  33. regwald says:

    Woodguy: That may be true.

    The fact that MTL took him 3rd and the results are starting to flow tells me they got their top 5 wrong, and you can’t fuck that up.

    You have a very good point about not being in their top 5. As mentioned, I wonder about that knee injury. But it does shed some doubt about their list for sure.

    Also, that list of players they were considering was broadcast at a season ticket holder event. Was there at the time and was surprised they even gave the list out.

  34. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    It’s not uncommon for Cs who are pushed into the NHL at a tender age to start on the wing. It’s about development path, more than player.

    If Gal (or Seguin for example) were 2nd round picks they stay in junior as Cs, then go the AHL as Cs, then go to the NHL as a C/W and make it as Cs long term thereafter.

    ——–
    Not having Gal in the top 5 is a thing to worry over.

    They did have Grig very high, which tells me they weren’t averse to Sizey Cs and other Russians though.

    but the talent evaluation is something to think through.

  35. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy,

    Two things.

    Good call on the Lou thing. He is the modern day Sam Pollock.

    Second, the Yak draft was the last of the Tambi era, no? The confusion around who to take was filled with BPA vs Draft for Need rumors. Draft for Need said get a D, while BPA said Yak. I can imagine how Galchenyuk fell through the cracks in a way that he wouldn’t now.

    I can’t fault MacGregor for that. There are more egregious errors from the 2013 draft other than not ranking Galchenyuk higher.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One final note about internal lists.

    That Stu list is 18 days ahead of draft day.

    We can assume the scouting team worked over the list a few times over that two + weeks. maybe Galchenyuk had an advocate that moved the dial there.

    ———
    tangential:

    the only glimpse of draft lists we’ve seen are that Canucks’ list from 2010 (IIRC) that was accidentally leaked and last year’s Flyers’ list which was partially revealed in their version of Oil Change.

    neither looked great vs. the BM list.

  37. sliderule says:

    The top three in this draft look real good.

    Numbers four and five also look good.

    How big a factor is the older birth dates of Reinhart and Draisaitl .

    The older birth date players that do well usually have had good seasons in their predraft season.

    Reinhart meets the test with 85 pts but Draisaitl only got 58.

    The number of players who score in Draisatl’s predraft range and work out are few and far between.

    I think E Staal was the last really good one.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 5m
    Leonsis says Trotz was the only coach interviewed

    ——–
    that’s just stupid.

    Open bids please. Oilers do the single bid contracts.

  39. vinotintazo says:

    Woodguy: He was drafted in the same draft as Yak and has 2 more games played than Yak.

    Is Yak injury prone?

    As far as I remember, he was a C in junior.

    Yes I mean hes playing Wing for Habs. I think this years injury to Yak was just to stop the bleeding he was having a bad season.

  40. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy:

    An amateur (a very good amateur) handicapping the draft better than the Oilers is not good.

    Is there any question at this point that this is going on and not just when it comes to the Oilers?

    Many with the proper skill set and interest do not follow the career path. Doesn’t mean they couldn’t do it or don’t do it in an unpaid capacity to some extent. Frankly sports’ closed door mentality when it comes to those who didn’t play professionally is keeping many of the best minds from applying their talent in this way.

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    The top three in this draft look real good.

    Numbers four and five also look good.

    How big a factor is the older birth dates of Reinhart and Draisaitl .

    The older birth date players that do well usually have had good seasons in theirpredraft season.

    Reinhart meets the test with 85 pts but Draisaitl only got 58.

    The number of players who score in Draisatl’s predraft range and work out are few and far between.

    I think E Staal was the last really good one.

    It was Draisaitl’s first year in NA. It was Reinhart’s 2nd year in WHL.

    ———-
    Duchene is pretty damn good.

    Jordan Staal is pretty good.

    Evander Kane is pretty damn good.

    Jeff Carter is pretty damn good.

    Bobby Ryan is pretty good.

    I’m sure we could go on and on and on.

  42. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Grigorenko went to combine and didn’t participate because of mono but man he looked soft.

    The top players looked ripped but he looked like he had the start of a pot.

    That made me wonder why the oilers brought him out west for an interview.

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Grigorenko went to combine and didn’t participate because of mono but man he looked soft.

    The top players looked ripped but he looked like he had the start of a pot.

    That made me wonder why the oilers brought him out west for an interview.

    Mono will do that to you.

    BM had him at 2 in the midseason:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=58415

    fell to 12 in the final:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9826

    I don’t think interviewing the guy is a problem at all. having him in the top 5 is for sure a stretch. But interviewing a guy doesn’t bother me at all. Cast a wide net, get more info.

  44. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: It was Draisaitl’s first year in NA. It was Reinhart’s 2nd year in WHL.

    ———-
    Duchene is pretty damn good.

    Jordan Staal is pretty good.

    Evander Kane is pretty damn good.

    Jeff Carter is pretty damn good.

    Bobby Ryan is pretty good.

    I’m sure we could go on and on and on.

    I don’t know what your point is as Staal and Kane had young birth dates for draft.At sept 10 and August 2 just about as young as you can be to make the draft

    All the other were between Jan and march which is not considered by most standards to be old for draft.

    An example of a player with an cot birthdate who didn’t score much is D Brassard..He is a good player but in hindsight wouldn’t have been picked as high as he was.

  45. Racki says:

    Are we sure the Oilers top five from yak draft was really their top 5? How do we know that? Was it in oil change? Did he say it pre draft or after draft? Just wondering.. Cause if it was pre draft and not actually shown in their board in oil change it probably doesn’t mean much. They may not have been honest in their choices.

    For the record, I was very high on Galchenyuk. Wanted both bad. But at the time I was definitely in favour of Yak over Galchenyuk. With the Oilers being such a loser team right now I’m not too concerned about yak’s struggles. They need some better players here to help make the most of everyone.

    There were also concerns about Galchenyuk and his knee injury. Kid missed a LOT of Hockey. Perhaps that scared the Oilers. He had a lot of draft buzz from the year before though.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule: I don’t know what your point is as Staal and Kane had young birth dates for draft.At sept 10 and August 2 just about as young as you can be to make the draft

    All the other werebetween Jan and march which is not considered by most standards to be old for draft.

    An example of a player with an cot birthdate who didn’t score much is D Brassard..He is a good player but in hindsight wouldn’t have been picked as high as he was.

    I see. I missed your caveat on older B-date and was just looking at top ten picks from CHL with limited pre-draft scoring since 2003.

    The biggest problem you are going to have is the limited pool of players to compare w. How many meet your criteria (what are they anyway, top 10, top 5?) over the past decade?

    Maybe so few meet your criteria because they don’t exist?

    At any rate, I think it’s a pretty poor point of analysis.

  47. regwald says:

    Racki,

    I stated it above. Tambo leaked the list at a season ticket holder event.

  48. RexLibris says:

    I argued for Galchenyuk because I believed (and still do) that the Oilers have needed to focus on centers more than wingers.

    Also, the Yakupov draft was a windfall. Their third 1st overall and at the time my argument was that perhaps they could leave a little talent on the table to take someone with nearly as much potential upside but whose specific skills meshed better with the rest of the team.

    BPA is too generic and vague and an easy excuse in a lazy argument. I define drafting the Best Player Available as including the philosophy that it can also be the Best Fit Player Available. Yakupov is a terrific talent and when the Oilers drafted him I held to the same belief that I have in previous drafts, that they have professionals with more information than I and this is their informed opinion, but I felt that Galchenyuk could have been the more strategic, and certainly bolder (see what I did there) pick for the organization.

    I was not in favour of drafting Murray. Nor am I with Ekblad this year. Maybe it is my own bias, but I’d prefer this team to focus on finding balance among the forward corps when they have these high picks.

  49. Crooked says:

    The last time teams traded down a top 10 pick was 2008. NYI sent #5 to Toronto for #7, #68 and a 2009 2nd. NYI then flipped #7 to Nashville for #9 & #40. #5 for #9, 40, 68 & 2009 2nd is a pretty good return.

    NYI don’t have a 1st rd pick next year, but have the #5, 35, Montreal’s 2nd, 65, 78, 95, 108, 155 & 185. Oilers #3 for NYI’s #5, 35 & 78 would seem to be a reasonable return. Assuming NYI want to move up anyway.

  50. Racki says:

    regwald:
    Racki,

    I stated it above. Tambo leaked the list at a season ticket holder event.

    I believe I would have been at that event, just slipped my memory I guess.

  51. jayzz says:

    Why is everyone so set on getting rid of Gagner …. He had a bad year … He was fine the year before, so good in fact that it warranted his so called “bad” contract. If MacT moves this player for draft picks we are doomed. I think the reason why gags looked so out of place and defensively lost was because he came into a new system half way into the year with a face shield on … The whole team sucked at the start of the year but seemed to settle in at the midway point. I agree we need more size in top 6 but trade when his stock is more than a bag of pucks plzz

  52. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    So you think a player like Draisatl born in October doesn’t have an advantage over players born six to even almost eleven months later.
    If you look at how most players progress from year to year in junior hockey I would say you are ignoring a very important as you say”point of analysis”.

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris: BPA is too generic and vague and an easy excuse in a lazy argument.

    As long as there is a difference of opinion concerning who actually is the BPA, the term is largely meaningless.

    It only has import in one of two ways:

    1. a scouting group or a GM has a clear BPA on their list and yet for some reason prefers what it considers to be the lesser player.

    2. from a meta-perspective us fans and commentators can use aggregate lists and/or our own lists to argue that the player any given team deems to be the BPA is not in fact the BPA.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    So you think a player like Draisatl born in October doesn’t have an advantage over players born six to even almost eleven months later.
    If you look at how most players progress from year to year in junior hockey I would say you are ignoring a very important as you say”point of analysis”.

    haha. way to move the goalposts.

    I’ve said innumerable times here and elsewhere that the one big question I have about him is his late birthdate.

    What strikes me as a trivial point of analysis is this entirely too narrow group of players you are compiling — F, CHL, late b-day, lack of scoring year before draft, touted for top pick.

    So far we have 3: Staal, Brassard and Draisaitl since 2003.

    not enough data to glean anything from that set. And, those names (Staal, Brassard) don’t really help your case if you are looking for busts or anything close.

  55. Woodguy says:

    vinotintazo: Yes I mean hes playing Wing for Habs. I think this years injury to Yak was just to stop the bleeding he was having a bad season.

    Understood.

    Lots of young C’s get moved to the wing to get acclimated to the NHL then move back once they are comfortable to do so.

    Yaj’s ankle was for real. He was starting to come on and playing with Hall and RNH when he went down.

  56. Woodguy says:

    LMHF#1: Is there any question at this point that this is going on and not just when it comes to the Oilers?

    Many with the proper skill set and interest do not follow the career path. Doesn’t mean they couldn’t do it or don’t do it in an unpaid capacity to some extent. Frankly sports’ closed door mentality when it comes to those who didn’t play professionally is keeping many of the best minds from applying their talent in this way.

    I’ve talked to a few people involved with providing services to pro teams and the NHL, by far, has the most “if you haven’t played you can’t have an opinion” culture.

    Shuts out a boat load of talent because they couldn’t skate like a NHLer.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Thornton might work. july.

    Marleau Sept. 15th (what a b-day!)

    Lupul late Sept.

    —–
    You could probably build a case around Tkaczuk, Mark Bell and Pyatt,

  58. vinotintazo says:

    I have a man crush on Draisaitl. but would pass on him if Eckblad is Avaiable at 3.

    when Bennett, Rainhart and Draisaitl are that close, you just take whats more suitable for the team.

    i’ll be happy with Draisaitl. although I think Bennett has the more upside of all.

  59. sliderule says:

    If our third overall pick ends up being Benoit Pouliot or D Brassard I don’t think the oilers or fans will be happy at all.
    I checked back over the top five or six players picked in draft and they and Staal were the only ones with older birth dates who scored similar to Draisaitl in draft year minus one.
    Your argument that it’s a small sample size is right.Its maybe that way because teams take age into account.
    If they take Draisaitl at three it will be a bit of a reach but I will be pulling for him to work out.

  60. nycoil says:

    I wanted Galchenyuk at the time over Yakupov as well, but was OK with the Yak pick and preferred him over Murray or Reinhart. I don’t blame them for being afraid to pick a guy who was injured all year first overall but having the future 1 and 2 Cs on this team already would have set us up nicely for this draft. Whether that’s taking Ekblad or adding a C to break in on the wing, or trading down for MDC.

    I can attest to the Isles: they need a top 4 D or a top line scoring winger. They are set at C with Tavares, Strome, Nielsen and Nelson.

    For the Oilers to acquire #5 outright I think the Isles would ask for Eberle or Yakupov straight up. I don’t think the Oilers should do that. A trade down to #5 is possible, though. I could see Evander Kane for #5 straight up.

  61. Logan91 says:

    Woodguy:
    Last time they gave us the list (Nail, Murray, Grigorenko, Forsberg, Reinhart) but this time we’re left to guess. May I?

    And it turns out the that the current leader in points from that draft is Galchenyuk.

    He wasn’t in Stu’s top 5.

    That’s not good.

    Who needs 6’2″ centers anyway?

    To be fair Galchenyuk was basically injured his whole draft year, and when he came back during the OHL playoffs he wasn’t playing all that great. Its difficult to scout and rank a player when you’re not able to see them play.

    People are trying to say Virtanen will drop this year because of shoulder surgery that happened after the season, so it’s pretty reasonable to not have Galchenyuk in the top 5 when he had a major knee injury and was out for the full year.

    Being a scout is a difficult job, and it’s pretty easy for someone to sit here and say it’s not good to have Galchenyuk in Stu’s top 5 two years after the draft.

  62. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    If our third overall pick ends up being Benoit Pouliot or D Brassard I don’t think the oilers or fans will be happy at all.
    I checked back over the top five or six players picked in draft and they and Staal were the only ones with older birth dates who scored similar to Draisaitl in draft year minus one.
    Your argument that it’s a small sample size is right.Its maybe that way because teams take age into account.
    If they take Draisaitl at three it will be a bit of a reach but I will be pulling for him to work out.

    I think you’re going to have to prove some of this speculation. Following up on it for you, I’ve found a number of players that seems to do fine that either meet all or some of your criteria.

    I don’t see any evidence it is a problem, especially when we consider that Draisaitl’s first WHL year was on a low scoring team and his first year in North America.

    It seems like a complete wasted effort IMO.

    This “reach” business is hilarious.

  63. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I assume you mean Marleau.

  64. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think you’re going to have to prove some of this speculation. Following up on it for you, I’ve found a number of players that seems to do fine that either meet all or some of your criteria.

    I don’t see any evidence it is a problem, especially when we consider that Draisaitl’s first WHL year was on a low scoring team and his first year in North America.

    It seems like a complete wasted effort IMO.

    This “reach” business is hilarious.

    that’s too harsh. sorry.

    I follow my own rabbit holes very often. most are fruitless. I don’t mean to discourage you here and I obviously really love Draisaitl… so Bias!

    but, i honestly don’t see the point of the question here. I’d suggest sticking to concerns about B-Date, and/or trying to see if low scoring year before draft is a thing regardless of B-date.

  65. VanOil says:

    One overall impression of today’s thread is that the Oilers have 2 of the greatest Jr clutch players in history in there line up. Taylor Hall 2 X Memorial Cup MVP and Jordan Eberle 2 X World Jr hero. It is fucking criminal they have not got to play in a Stanley Cup Final game. Regardless of who they pick this summer, the pick alone will not ensure they are in the playoffs next year. Fucking Criminal. Robbing hockey fans of there playoff greatness.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I assume you mean Marleau.

    I meant Marleau, thornton, Lupul for picks in the criteria that are good.

    the others (Duchene, Kane, Ryan, etc.) picks that meet some of your criteria

    Tkaczuk, Mark Bell are the only one’s I found that meet criteria and don’t pan out well. maybe Pyatt (but he has played over 800 NHL games). and those guys are late 90s picks… so almost 20 years ago.

  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    VanOil:
    One overall impression of today’s thread is that the Oilers have 2 of the greatest Jr clutch players in history in there line up. Taylor Hall 2 X Memorial Cup MVP and Jordan Eberle 2 X World Jr hero. It is fucking criminal they have not got to play in a Stanley Cup Final game. Regardless of who they pick this summer, the pick alone will not ensure they are in the playoffs next year. Fucking Criminal. Robbing hockey fans of there playoff greatness.

    clutch is nonsense.

    (hahaha… I’m pissy today).

  68. VanOil says:

    For those worried about Draisaitl’s age.

    Age does matter.

    So does physical maturity (Nuge v. Ekblad is a pretty extreme example, Ekblad looks older now)

    But how about experience? We are willing to give European player a year to adjust when they come over from European Pro leagues to the NHL or AHL. I would posit there is a bigger leap from German or Latvian Jr to the CHL than there is at the pro level. Plus the shear culture shock of such a change off ice. Therefore I feel Draisitl age advantage is leveled off with his experience deficit. Also Kulda’s late blooming is not necessarily a one off hot streak.

  69. Woodguy says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Woodguy,

    Two things.

    Good call on the Lou thing. He is the modern day Sam Pollock.

    Second, the Yak draft was the last of the Tambi era, no? The confusion around who to take was filled with BPA vs Draft for Need rumors. Draft for Need said get a D, while BPA said Yak. I can imagine how Galchenyuk fell through the cracks in a way that he wouldn’t now.

    I can’t fault MacGregor for that. There are more egregious errors from the 2013 draft other than not ranking Galchenyuk higher.

    That’s all fair, but they rated other C’s in the top 5 (Grigorenko, Forsberg) who went 10th and 11th in the draft.

  70. Woodguy says:

    Logan91: To be fair Galchenyuk was basically injured his whole draft year, and when he came back during the OHL playoffs he wasn’t playing all that great. Its difficult to scout and rank a player when you’re not able to see them play.

    People are trying to say Virtanen will drop this year because of shoulder surgery that happened after the season, so it’s pretty reasonable to not have Galchenyuk in the top 5 when he had a major knee injury and was out for the full year.

    Being a scout is a difficult job, and it’s pretty easy for someone to sit here and say it’s not good to have Galchenyuk in Stu’s top 5 two years after the draft.

    Except Montreal took him 3rd and it’s looking good.

  71. Woodguy says:

    sliderule: pr

    I was grinding through some drafts and re-seeding the forwards based on pts/.game and certain gp thresholds.

    I don’t remember seeing one where a re-seed went 1,2,3.

    Could be as I was skimming and plunking stuff in excel, but I remember not being too surprised that it didn’t happen.

  72. Pajamah says:

    In regards to Kulda, I’d take a shot at him

    In the list above 16 of the 25 last Mem Cup MVP’s have been long term NHL’ers, with quite a few being mid-high end professional hockey players with long careers

    64% chance of an NHL career? Any day, all day.

  73. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Woodguy,

    I’m not really sure that’s fair.

    From an optics standpoint, I don’t think you can take a player that basically took the year off with the 1st overall pick unless he’s an Eric Lindros level talent or better. Everyone knew the kid was good, but if you use the first overall pick on a guy that hasn’t really played, and then it turns out he’s not the same guy post injury, you get fired. With the third pick I think you are afforded more leeway.

    That’s how I would feel if I was a hockey manager anyway. Kid would have been a non starter with the #1 pick for me, but I would have taken him 3rd overall if I was in charge of MTL. I remember commenting on that during the draft (admittedly to a buddy so you’ll have to take my word for it).

  74. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    Woodguy,

    I’m not really sure that’s fair.

    From an optics standpoint, I don’t think you can take a player that basically took the year off with the 1st overall pick unless he’s an Eric Lindros level talent or better.Everyone knew the kid was good, but if you use the first overall pick on a guy that hasn’t really played, and then it turns out he’s not the same guy post injury, you get fired.With the third pick I think you are afforded more leeway.

    That’s how I would feel if I was a hockey manager anyway.Kid would have been a non starter with the #1 pick for me, but I would have taken him 3rd overall if I was in charge of MTL.I remember commenting on that during the draft (admittedly to a buddy so you’ll have to take my word for it).

    I think this is missing the point.

    WG said he’s fine with the Yak pick.

    The question is why they didn’t consider him in their top 5?

    BM had him 5, he was taken 3rd.

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9825

    Seems like the talent analysis missed something here.

  75. Racki says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    I’m not even sure I’d give leeway at 3rd even. It was risky. It worked out, or appears to be working out though. But that backfires, and as you can agree, you look quite stupid.

    Galy went 3rd..good choice in the end by the habs (I always felt they have been historically good at drafting). But I don’t think Galy was ignored.. Just not in Oilers top 5.is that a huge deal? What if he was 6th? Still a big deal? It would have been nice if the top 5 most successful rookies were the top 5 in the Oilers list but it doesn’t always work that way. Bob’s final list has him at 5

  76. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think Marleau did not meet my criteria because sep15 th is cutoff date and he was the youngest in draft.

  77. Truth says:

    regwald:
    Was wondering about Kulda a bit and thought I would investigate previous Memorial Cup MVP winners. Some are big stars and some you never hear from again. A huge contrast in winners. Source is tsn.ca

    YearPlayerTeam
    2013Nate MacKinnonHalifax
    2012Michael ChaputShawinigan
    2011Jonathan HuberdeauSaint John
    2010Taylor HallWindsor
    2009Taylor HallWindsor
    2008Dustin TokarskiSpokane
    2007Milan LucicVancouver
    2006Alexander RadulovQuebec
    2005Corey PerryLondon
    2004Kelly GuardKelowna
    2003Derek RoyKitchener
    2002Danny GroulxVictoriaville
    2001Kyle WanvigRed Deer
    2000Brad RichardsRimouski
    1999Nick BoyntonOttawa
    1998Chris MaddenGuelph
    1997Christian DubeHull
    1996Cameron MannPeterborough
    1995Shane DoanKamloops
    1994Darcy TuckerKamloops
    1993Ralph IntranuovoSault Ste. Marie
    1992Scott NiedermayerKamloops
    1991Pat FalloonSpokane
    1990Iain FraserOttawa
    1989Dan LambertSwift Current
    1988Rob DiMaioMedicine Hat
    1987Wayne McBeanMedicine Hat
    1986Steve ChiassonGuelph
    1985Dan HodgsonPrince Albert
    1984Adam CreightonOttawa
    1983Alfie TurcottePortland
    1982Sean McKennaSherbrooke
    1981Dale HawerchukCornwall
    1980Dave EzardCornwall
    1979Bart HunterBrandon
    1978Stan SmylNew Westminster
    1977Barry BeckNew Westminster
    1976Dale McCourtHamilton
    1975Barry SmithNew Westminster
    1974Greg JolyRegina
    1973Mark HoweToronto
    1972Richard BrodeurCornwall

    I wonder how many of these kids were passed on in the draft prior to winning MVP?

    Many on that list, including good ones, won the MVP 1-2 years following being drafted.

    Only a few, and mostly recently, were drafted and went straight to the NHL. It is crazy for Hall to have won it twice, nevermind both times prior to being eligible for the NHL draft.

  78. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think this is missing the point.

    WG said he’s fine with the Yak pick.

    The question is why they didn’t consider him in their top 5?

    BM had him 5, he was taken 3rd.

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9825

    Seems like the talent analysis missed something here.

    So BM has him at 5 and the Oilers have to have him in their top 5 or they’re negligent? You guys seriously think that every team in the league had every single one of these 5 players in their top 5? I get the desire to beat up on everything the Oilers do, but if he was ranked 5 on bobs list that means several teams/scouts also did not have him in their top 5.

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think Marleau did not meetmy criteria because sep15 th is cutoff date and he was the youngest in draft.

    I thought it was the other way around, i.e., he’d be the oldest. But this kind of thing confuses me.

  80. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-Money!: For clarity, I am very happy that the Oilers took Yak.
    He was consensus #1 and I’m good with it.
    Its not cool that MBS didn’t have Galchenyuk in his top 5

    That is why I said this in my 2nd post in the thread:

    For clarity, I am very happy that the Oilers took Yak.
    He was consensus #1 and I’m good with it.
    Its not cool that MBS didn’t have Galchenyuk in his top 5

  81. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    I wasn’t meaning redrafts like Perron was and Kulda will be

    I was just pointing out the difference in age has to be a factor in drafting..You could have one player born Sep 16 and another player born Sept 15 th one year later and both in same draft it’s a factor.

    The older players like Hall Yakupov scored so much at draft minus one that they would have been top picks in that year and I am sure scouts would have considered their youth if they had been eligible..

    Is age a big factor?To me it is to others not.

    It’s all OK.

  82. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki: So BM has him at 5 and the Oilers have to have him in their top 5 or they’re negligent? You guys seriously think that every team in the league had every single one of these 5 players in their top 5? I get the desire to beat up on everything the Oilers do, but if he was ranked 5 on bobs list that means several teams/scouts also did not have him in their top 5.

    I understand that.

    No one is going crazy over it. WG said they missed it. And, so far at least, it looks like they did.

    That said, they took the right guy.

    The concern is that the 3 other guys don’t look as good as Gal.

    And, that they set the bar at 5. That means they saw a drop off after that. So, if he was at 6 or 7 it’s significant distance from 1.

  83. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I understand that.

    No one is going crazy over it. WG said they missed it. And, so far at least, it looks like they did.

    That said, they took the right guy.

    The concern is that the 3 other guys don’t look as good as Gal.

    And, that they set the bar at 5. That means they saw a drop off after that. So, if he was at 6 or 7 it’s significant distance from 1.

    I’d say bummer, yes, but big warning flag.. Not necessarily. I’m guessing that Montreal did their homework in the previous year. Good on them (for real). At the time I really liked how physical he was in junior. Huge hitter. Plus he had an amazing shot for his age. Wanted both players badly. But Ya really the way I see it is if he was 5 on BMs list the Oilers were far from alone on missing out on this one. the year off was probably a huge factor.

  84. regwald says:

    Jonathan Willis just retweeted this. The Canucks Nation analysis for drafts. You might be surprised where Edmonton sits. I know I was a bit.

    Canucks Draft Analysis

  85. gcw_rocks says:

    A complete skill set, he duplicates a lot of what the Nuge delivers, but is a fine EV scorer, something that Nuge hasn’t delivered yet.

    Not sure I agree with this. Bennett is supposed to be a bundle of hate like Gilmour was, Nuge is cerebral and plays like butter. While the size is not dramatically different, it seems like they are very different players, beyond even strength scoring.

  86. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: That’s all fair, but they rated other C’s in the top 5 (Grigorenko, Forsberg)who went 10th and 11th in the draft.

    They also had Gernat in their top thirty, was it? Or 35?

    Leaving Galchenyuk out of the equation might have been due to injury and the GM at the time being risk averse, but I imagine that if we saw lists from ten teams we’d be asking questions about a lot of scouting divisions, not just the Oilers.

    There should be a statute of limitations on draft lists to a point where fifteen years after the draft they enter public domain or can be FOIP’d. Now that would be something!

  87. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    I wasn’t meaning redrafts like Perron was and Kulda will be

    I was just pointing out the difference in age has to be a factor in drafting..You could have one player born Sep 16 and another player born Sept 15 th one year later and both in same draft it’s a factor.

    The older players like Hall Yakupov scored so much atdraft minus one that they would have been top picks in that yearandI am sure scouts would have considered their youth if they had been eligible..

    Is age a big factor?To me it is to others not.

    It’s all OK.

    It’s simply too unique a situation.

    An interesting comparable for Draisaitl is Dominik Kahun:

    both tore apart the SBL (German U-16)

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/league.php?leagueid=Sch%FCler-BL&season=2010

    and the DNL (German U-18)

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/league.php?leagueid=DNL&season=2011

    Both came over to the CHL (LD to WHL, DK to OHL). Both played two seasons in CHL. both eligible this season for draft.

    DK outscored LD in Ger (by a few points both seasons). LD has way outperformed DK in North America.

    this seems about as valuable an indicator on Draisaitl as his apparent lack of pre-draft year scoring.

  88. RexLibris says:

    regwald:
    Jonathan Willis just retweeted this. The Canucks Nation analysis for drafts. You might be surprised where Edmonton sits. I know I was a bit.

    Canucks Draft Analysis

    Which would seem to support my hypothesis that immediately following the draft, Benning fires the Canucks scouting department and brings in some new bodies.

    I wonder if Mike Johnston out of Portland would be interested?

  89. VanOil says:

    #3 for Grigorenko?

    Is a former top 5, Grigorenko, with 2 years of some what scuttled development worth more than any of this years top 3 Centers?

    If you add Gagner and Erhoff to the deal it would get a lot more tempting.

    Or #3 for Adam Larsson? Is a 21 year old defenseman going to help the Oilers win now?

  90. OilClog says:

    Woodguy: That is why I said this in my 2nd post in the thread:

    For clarity, I am very happy that the Oilers took Yak.
    He was consensus #1 and I’m good with it.
    Its not cool that MBS didn’t have Galchenyuk in his top 5

    Even that’s a pile of BS though. Who’s been given the opportunity or linemates that GalChuk has?

    Grigs? Buffalo is a disaster.

    Forsberg.. Traded for a real player and about to get career started.

    Murray.. Well he’s panning out

    Yak.. He was/is the jewel.

    Reinhart.. Yea he’s a bum. Lol.

    How about we determine at the 5 year mark. 2017.

    It’s easy to say GalChuk is top 5 based on NHL TOI. But by 2017 just maybe Stu ends up being correct.. All the pieces are there for it to happen whether you want to admit it or not.

  91. Racki says:

    “@AdMan0828: @GeorgesLaraque tearing the #Oilers a new one right now on @OilersNow #Boom”

    Anyone know details?

  92. vinotintazo says:

    Racki,

    He basically said we can’t win with small players, need some balance.

  93. Racki says:

    vinotintazo:
    Racki,

    He basically said we can’t win with small players, need some balance.

    Thanks George for the enlightening analysis. Lol

  94. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    I wasn’t meaning redrafts like Perron was and Kulda will be

    I was just pointing out the difference in age has to be a factor in drafting..You could have one player born Sep 16 and another player born Sept 15 th one year later and both in same draft it’s a factor.

    The older players like Hall Yakupov scored so much atdraft minus one that they would have been top picks in that yearandI am sure scouts would have considered their youth if they had been eligible..

    Is age a big factor?To me it is to others not.

    It’s all OK.

    I think you have to age into consideration, but if you are dinging him for not scoring in his draft -1 year you need to compensate a bit for being new to the Country and a teenager a long way from home.

    Not easy to hit the ground running.

  95. vinotintazo says:

    Racki: Thanks George for the enlightening analysis. Lol

    Okey it was more like, yeah Hall, RNH , Ebs, Yaks, schultz are good, but this isnt the 80′s and you need balance.

    he basically said to win now, you need to be big and fast (LA Kings)

  96. Woodguy says:

    OilClog: Even that’s a pile of BS though. Who’s been given the opportunity or linemates that GalChuk has?

    Grigs? Buffalo is a disaster.

    Forsberg.. Traded for a real player and about to get career started.

    Murray.. Well he’s panning out

    Yak.. He was/is the jewel.

    Reinhart.. Yea he’s a bum. Lol.

    How about we determine at the 5 year mark. 2017.

    It’s easy to say GalChuk is top 5 based on NHL TOI. But by 2017 just maybe Stu ends up being correct.. All the pieces are there for it to happen whether you want to admit it or not.

    He might be.

    Watching Galchenyuk play this past week and he looks like the real deal.

    Out of the top 5 taken, Reinhart has the highest probability of not being worth a top 5 pick.

    His lack of offense doesn’t bode well for a high end NHL career.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Here’s the blog post that looked at CHL DMen scoring rates vs where they were taken vs how they do in the NHL.

    http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2013/06/slicing-and-dicing-re-examining-data-on.html

    This is not to say Reinhart will not be a good in the NHL, just that players with his CHL production have a higher tendency to not make it than players with higher production.

    Its the 4 graphs at the bottom and the verbal preceding it that has all the good stuff

  98. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Truth: I wonder how many of these kids were passed on in the draft prior to winning MVP?

    When you find the ones (or zeroes) passed in their draft, check to see how many outscored their first rounder teammates from January through May?

    The tournament of small sample sizes is just a red flag that says better look closely at that honking big 2014 arrow on that late arrival from the Latvian hotbed of player development.

  99. Racki says:

    I look forward to the day when player usage stats.. Zone stats, , toi, etc, are available at the junior level. I would bet that the answer to the article above as to why these high goal scoring guys were such duds is they probably did a lot of it on the pp, and/or were sheltered from the hard minutes. It would help scouts to know this kind of info too.

  100. godot10 says:

    Galchenyuk and Rielly not on the Oilers top five might not have anything to do with Stu. They may have been redlined by the medical staff, or by an extremely risk averse Tambellini.

    Some teams in the NFL are getting pretty bold in their injury evaluations. The Patriots drafted a linemen with an ACLsurgery on both knees in the 1st round, and Seattle claims they would have picked him in the first if the Pats hadn’t. But one is talking about two elite organizations here who can risk blowing the pick.

  101. Jon K says:

    Love the drafting series, LT.

    Regarding your possible solutions suggestions, I am thinking that the Oilers are seriously considering trading down if a specific player they want is gone at 3.

    I don’t really have anything to offer than speculation, but listening to pieces of Stu’s interview from yesterday, I think I noticed some things.

    Bob Stauffer (blegh) asked Stu to summarize his thoughts on the top players in a few words. Many of the top players didn’t elicit much of a response from Stu other than some derivation of the term “smart”. Powerful came up a lot for Draisaitl, Ekblad, and Dal Colle, I think.

    What was interesting was when Bob asked him about Haydn Fleury. Stu seemed to noticeably perk up, a little more excitement in his tone, and almost stumbled over his words, describing how Fleury was an incredible skater, and an excellent puckmover from the back end with a lot of offensive ability.

    My thought, for whatever it’s worth, is that the team is hoping for Ekblad to be there at 3. If he isn’t, they may trade down and select Fleury. It could be that they think he has just as much (or more) upside than Ekblad at the NHL level due to his skating ability and no lack of size.

  102. rickithebear says:

    Racki:
    I look forward to the day when player usage stats.. Zone stats, , toi, etc, are available at the junior level. I would bet that the answerto the article above as to why these high goal scoring guys were such duds is they probably did a lot of it on the pp, and/or were sheltered from the hard minutes. It would help scouts to know this kind of info too.

    There is only so much PP available to players.
    to expect better than 30% of points from PP for you r top line players is unusual.

    So as Lt: and I have done for years. look at evP production by age in the CHL. that is a start.

    Bennett; Virtanen; you are chasing the 28+ EVP NHLE @ 22 players.
    that is top half of 2nd line scoring or better. top 135 forwards.
    33 makes you a 1st line forward in even points.

    Mitch moroz season by Desjardin projection curves say he is a 16EVG and 13EVA by age 22.

    Sam Gagner was 15EVG 20PPG 33EVA 50PPA we also know in London that the top line players get major TOI pushes.
    with any kind of TOI reduction to EVP totals we see that a Healthy Gagner was likely a 34-40 EVP and 47-55 Point forward

  103. Jon K says:

    Woodguy: He might be.

    Watching Galchenyuk play this past week and he looks like the real deal.

    Out of the top 5 taken, Reinhart has the highest probability of not being worth a top 5 pick.

    His lack of offense doesn’t bode well for a high end NHL career.

    The interesting and unsettling thing about the Galchenyuk/Yakupov dilemma is trying to figure out who was zooming who. Going back to before the draft, nearly all the highlights of Yakupov from Sarnia featured Galchenyuk to some extent. Quite frankly, Galchenyuk came off as just impressive. Of course, there was some degree of comfort in seeing Nail do just as well in his year without Galchenyuk (prorated). I wonder to what extent we can criticize management for the Yakupov selection if Galchenyuk ends up being the superior player. It was a tough situation.

    I remember quite some time ago, an oilogosphere writer (Dellow, perhaps?) about the risk associated with drafting multiple players from good teams. I can’t quite seem to find the article online now. In any case, there have been good examples where teams thought they were getting the best player at the top of the draft but another unheralded player from the same team ended up being the gooder (Lecavalier/Richards comes to mind).

  104. RexLibris says:

    On Kulda and his draft position, here’s what I am taking into consideration when suggesting he *could* go in the 3rd round.

    - teams with multiple picks in a round tend to go walkabout with the 2nd pick, especially if they lack a pick in the following round.

    - Memorial Cup-winning players almost always see a bump in their draft position

    - The Calgary Flames have a late 3rd round pick via the Penguins (Stempniak deal) but no 4th round pick (Toronto’s via the Joe Colborne deal) and would have easy scouting access to the Oil Kings.

    The OIlers have the 1st pick of the 4th round (via Buffalo and Jason Pominville to MInnesota and the eventual Bryzgalov deal this year). If Kulda lasts that long, then perhaps he can be had there.

    But right now, if I were trying to handicap it, I’d say Calgary is a possibility, with potentially one of the picks determined by the four Cup finalists in play next, followed by the Oilers and then the Carolina Hurricanes who have both the 96th and 97th overall picks.

  105. Racki says:

    Woodguy: That’s all fair, but they rated other C’s in the top 5 (Grigorenko, Forsberg)who went 10th and 11th in the draft.

    Forsberg #3 on Bob’s final list. I think youre also being a bit naive to think there won’t be any variation in lists. As you progress in the draft too there is more tendency to pick by need. We also see every year how sometimes things go unexpectedly on the draft list. Grigo was also once ranked quite high (top 3).. Edit: I see Bob had him #2 mid season. I suspect the lazy Russian/KHL jumper stigma hit him with most teams (I. E. They didn’t want to take the chance).

  106. Jordan says:

    regwald:
    Jonathan Willis just retweeted this. The Canucks Nation analysis for drafts. You might be surprised where Edmonton sits. I know I was a bit.

    Canucks Draft Analysis

    Based solely on the results here, the Oilers look to be about average here. They end up with most drafts having someone turning out, they use more picks and get slightly poorer results than average. The only thing unusual about them is that for the scope of the survey, they have no draft where they don’t find some players who play games in the NHL.

    Also – I now fear Benning in Vancouver. Someone get Bettman and Lou on the phone and take away their draft picks for trading Luongo.

  107. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Jordan: Based solely on the results here, the Oilers look to be about average here.They end up with most drafts having someone turning out, they use more picks and get slightly poorer results than average. The only thing unusual about them is that for the scope of the survey, they have no draft where they don’t find some players who play games in the NHL.

    Also – I now fear Benning in Vancouver.Someone get Bettman and Lou on the phone and take away their draft picks for trading Luongo.

    Almost average with the worst of the KP era included and early going on MBS? Interesting to see rushing players surfacing in their crackerjack* draft record. (*a prize in every box)

    Would be nice to normalize all pick counts to the equivalent of last 2nd round pick (using a curve of position vs. odds of reaching the 5 year standard). and then break out the 14 lottery picks. Then you could take an early peak at the MBS era comparing early proceeds properly to average nhl early proceeds.

  108. misfit says:

    Or maybe the list is 6 names long because that’s where the first major drop-off happens. They may see a gap from 3 to 4 or 4 to 5, but then another from 6 to 7 which could be much more significant. As in “trade back if you can get value, but don’t trade any farther than 6 unless someone knocks your socks off”.

    EDIT – I know I’m way late to the part on this

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