YOU GOTTA MOVE

This week, we’ve examined the current state of the team and possible moves to improve. This has resulted in some of the most negative posting on this blog, ever. I was dm’ed last night and asked ‘why now?’ and thought it might be an idea to explain my thoughts. Here’s the deal. Do you remember that list I used all last summer? Let’s have a quick look at it and see how things turned out.

MACT’S SUMMER 2013 LIST

  1. Top 4 defender (signed Andrew Ference)
  2. Sign Sam Gagner to a multi-year deal that has begins with a number in the 4′s  (3 years, $4.8M cap hit)
  3. Find a 2line L who can complement Gagner-Yakupov (it was David Perron)
  4. Get Paajarvi signed and then find a role that suits him (it was David Perron)
  5. NHL goalie (LaBarbera was the choice)
  6. Find a 3line C (Gordon an ideal fit)
  7. Find a 4line C (Acton external, Lander internal options)
  8. Find a 3line R (It was Hemsky)
  9. Deal Hemsky for immediate help (best trades sometimes are the ones you don’t make)
  10. Deal Horcoff or slot him into the 3line job for which he is actually ideal. (Set him free)
  11. Better blue depth (MacT signed Belov and Larsen, plus Klefbom/Fedun/Marincin)
  12. AHL #1/NHL #3 goalie (Bachman)

It’s interesting to see how many things connected—solving 2L with Perron by also solving the Paajarvi question—and we should assume the same thing this summer. Except, the things Edmonton had a year ago to trade are not here now. Magnus Paajarvi, Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky, they’re all gone now. The men Edmonton may have to offer this season are younger fellows, some who the team should be keeping, others the team should be waiting to deal. Sending away Sam Gagner today, or Nail Yakupov, is exactly the kind of thing a bad team does every summer.

How then, do the Oilers solve this year’s problems?

MACT’S SUMMER 2014 LIST

  1. A veteran top pairing defenseman, one who can play 25 minutes a night in all three disciplines.
  2. A 2line C with experience and the ability to play a two-way game. He needs to score 40 points and do some heavy lifting. He also needs to be mentor to Yakupov, as needed and that might be the entire season.
  3. A legit two-way winger who can score 12-15 goals, kill penalties, and mentor young up and comers as needed.
  4. Find a way to get value, or make use of, Sam Gagner. This does not include time at center.
  5. Improve the bottom 6F’s.
  6. Retain as much of the young cluster as possible, understanding that the player who represents #1 on this list might cost a young D who will one day fill that role.
  7. Get Petry signed long term.
  8. Sign Schultz but DO NOT break the bank.

Well, it’s a shorter list, that’s good. On the other hand, the needs are for players higher up the food chain. Good news? Don’t know. Higher risk? Yes.

pisani ot

MY KINDGDOM FOR A PISANI

One of the key elements to Edmonton’s success in these next seasons will be finding and developing talent. We saw two ‘false starts’ this past season, and two examples of players who may be here for a decade. The ‘false starts’ were Tyler Pitlick and Anton Belov, as both players offered some promise but did not capture the jobs available. It would seem a better fate awaits Martin Marincin and Oscar Klefbom, who arrived, adjusted well, and showed enough to be strong contenders for NHL action this coming season. An ideal situation would have Klefbom going back to the AHL for half a season, but it’s doubtful Edmonton will have the kind of depth required to make it happen.

The big jobs, the 25 minute defenseman and the 2line C who can mentor Yakupov and fend off the pack of wolves in the Pacific, those jobs need to come from outside. Edmonton would be so much stronger if some of these AHL forwards, like Pitlick and Lander, could help in the bottom 6.

OILERS CURRENT 2014-15 ROSTER (signed and RFA’s)

  • Center: Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Gagner, Boyd Gordon, Mark Arcobello, Anton Lander
  • Left Wing: Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, Jesse Joensuu, Luke Gazdic
  • Right Wing: Jordan Eberle, David Perron, Matt Hendricks
  • Left Defense: Martin Marincin, Andrew Ference, Oscar Klefbom
  • Right Defense: Jeff Petry, Justin Schultz, Phil Larsen
  • Goal: Ben Scrivens, Viktor Fasth

Craig MacTavish has to make some moves, but there’s also real danger. Trading away a decade of Marincin for Ference 2.0 is a horrible possibility, but defensemen are at such a massive premium this summer, it’s going to be almost impossible to improve this lot via trade. There’s every chance one of Petry, Marincin or Klefbom is headed out of town.

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115 Responses to "YOU GOTTA MOVE"

  1. TheOtherJohn says:

    Suspect Oilers do not get a 25 TOI all discipline D man. MacT will mouth all appropriate platitudes but refuse to give up anything to get quality. We will be told that our young D are the envy of the NHL– ala Gagner, Cogliano & Nilsson. We’ll sign Schultz for a boatload of $$ at $5m+ long term and qualify Petry on a 1-2 yr deal. Our goalies will underachieve and this year we will be in the playoff hunt till mid December. We will improve to 21st and MacT will heartily endorse the entire coaching staff and call it a successful season

    Pessimistic? Everyone reading the above knows that it is entirely possible.

    Or we could sign Grabovski, Kulemin, Moss and Gilbert and be in the playoff hunt to early March

    If laying $$ I’d bet on the former

  2. Ca$h-Money! says:

    interesting thing about this list is that it could have been used last year too. Seems to me the difference is that you are setting the bar higher.

  3. Fauntleroy says:

    I don’t really get the rationale for trading Gagner. He is still a decent offensive player if moved to the wing. He may not be the defensively responsible centre that people wanted him to be, but he could still contribute on a more limited role, we we found out his good friend Cogliano is capable of.

  4. RT26 says:

    I have faith in MacT, but I worry that people expect too much too soon in regards to the turn around.

    My thoughts:
    > Offer STL a 2015 3rd rounder for Paajarvi
    > Create a soft minutes, offensvie ZS line of Arcobello, Paajarvi and Lander. If injuries happen, they could play up the lineup.
    > Sign David Moss as the winger for the Gordon-Hendricks defensive ZS line.
    > Package Gagner and the RFA rights to J Schultz and approach Nashville about Roman Josi. They would really improve their offensive attack and we’d get a cornerstone D man
    > Offer our #3 pick and Gernat or Musil to Toronto for #8 and Phaneuf

    Hall – Nuge – Eberle
    Yak – 2C – Perron
    Paajarvi – Arco – Lander
    Hendricks – Gordon – Moss
    Gazdic

    Phaneuf – Josi
    Marincin – Petry
    Klefbom – Ference
    Larsen

  5. RT26 says:

    LT,

    Sorry, but one last thing. I think Paajarvi and/ or Lander could (and I mean, could – not definitely) become a Pisani type with the right development.

  6. Racki says:

    I think the Oilers need one more LHD with experience as well too in case Klefbom and or Marincin struggle. Doesn’t have to be a big deal like the #1 guy.

    I’ll also say if we make a 3rd line that is built around Paajarvi and Lander, I will be choked. I’d like to see some guys come in that are harder to play against. Maybe Steve Ott? Maybe too pricey for what he brings. There are some other names out there, but I haven’t had my coffee yet. Brain = sludge.

  7. LostBoy says:

    The top pairing D would normally be fantasy. But Phaneuf really does seem to be available, and he really does fit the bill. Like others, I might have to hold my nose a bit, but we’re not in a position to be choosy. I don’t know what it takes to get it done, but all the noises suggest it’s doable.

  8. slopitch says:

    Nail Yakapov was 300th overall in ES points last season. Nuge had an off year. Gagner had an off year. The last 5 first overall picks are Stamkos, Hall, Nuge, Yak, Mackinnon. Some of these things are not like the others. Its looking very bleak right now but that may turn in a hurry. I find it hard to believe MacT cant upgrade the bottom 6 substantially. They were shambles. MacT seems to have flushed a good portion of the anchors and he’s a hustler. The elephant in the room is that lack of top pairing dman. Calgary spent a decade looking for a top C for Iginla. Finding a legit top pairing D is as tough or harder. Godspeed MacT.

  9. Jordan says:

    1 – A veteran top pairing defenseman, one who can play 25 minutes a night in all three disciplines.
    2 – A 2line C with experience and the ability to play a two-way game. He needs to score 40 points and do some heavy lifting. He also needs to be mentor to Yakupov, as needed and that might be the entire season.
    3 – A legit two-way winger who can score 12-15 goals, kill penalties, and mentor young up and comers as needed.
    4 – Find a way to get value, or make use of, Sam Gagner. This does not include time at center.
    5 – Improve the bottom 6F’s.
    6 – Retain as much of the young cluster as possible, understanding that the player who represents #1 on this list might cost a young D who will one day fill that role.
    7 – Get Petry signed long term.
    8 – Sign Schultz but DO NOT break the bank

    1 – Either do the Gagner/Phaneuf flliparoo (and if you can find a way to make it happen without flipping 1st this year even better).
    or
    Make a deal for Coburn at the draft. Don’t like this as much because it may not address the Gagner issue, and may cost the 1st this year, and I like the Cs available. If you can get them to take Schultz and give us their 2015 1st – gold star.

    2 – Boyd Gordon

    3 & 5 – SIgn Grabovski & Kulemin to play on the 3rd line here. Pick up a Winnik/Moss to fill out that line

    4 – Done with #1 hopefully, otherwise put him on the wing with Grabo & pray for unsustainably high shooting % to start the season

    6 – Done

    7 – 4.4M X 4 years

    8 – See 1 – if that fails, then offer 3.5 M over 2 yrs (bridge) and see if his D coverage improves. Do not offer anything over 2 years unless the average is less than 3.75. If he won’t take it, tell his agent that the Oilers will get back to him.

    I don’t expect any of this to happen, but it’s sure reassuring to know that being a GM is so easy… Get ‘er done ya Silver Fox!

  10. Hall Awaits says:

    This is the first year since 2009 that I haven’t let myself get wildly optimistic about this teams future. It’s sad to think but I think the kids will be carrying the load. I’d love Phaneuf at this point despite how dirty it feels.

    Phaneuf
    Grabovski
    Draisaitl
    Kulemin
    Moss
    Greene (not my choice but it will happen)

    That would be something. Sigh.

  11. cahill says:

    1. This is the toughest thing to project. I can’t see a 25 minute person acquired without giving up Eberle, Hall or Nuge. Or signing Markov to huge $. Which could be done.
    2. I would target Stastny, Grabovsky but I’d settle for Goc.
    3. Colin Greening – here’s a guy that should come cheap Ottawa hates him. He has size, can play in your middle six. He actually reminds me of a younger David Moss.
    4. I think there is a market for Gagner. Sitting in a bubble that is your team, you only see players that aren’t successful. Florida, Islander, Predators, Penguins, Sharks, Sabers, Canucks, Sharks, Jets, ect .. I would love if he can be moved as part of a package for a top 4 defenseman a guy like Kulikov.
    5. I haven’t looked at his stats but a guy like Trevor Lewis would be a good guy to target.
    6. Only trade one of the cluster unless you get option 1 or a piece of the puzzle that the Oilers don’t have.
    7/8. Petry & Schultz should be signed to multi-year deals for 3.5 – 4 million.
    Bonus: I would look at taking on a bad contract. Sharks are trading Havlat, I’d potentially look at him. He can still score, he’s big 6’2 220 & could fit in on a soft minutes line.

    Forwards:
    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Greening-Gordon-Perron
    Havlat-Goc-Yakupov
    Lander-Lewis-Hendricks
    Arcobello-Gazdic

    Defense:
    Marincin-Petry
    Kulikov-Schultz
    Ference- Bellemore / Fayne

  12. Racki says:

    cahill,

    I can’t see how the Oilers get out of the basement with that D. I honestly can’t see how they get away without a top minute guy. I’d sign Markov too out of desperation if no trades could be made and if he’d come here. Something needs to be done though. This summer will either be depressing as hell for us fans or create a load of excitement. Scratch off the c and D needs and MacT is a hero. Miss either, and we pray for amazing goaltending all year.

  13. knighttown says:

    The one real bright spot this spring is the success the Rangers, Habs and Hawks are having. MacTavish had a vision of building his team with skill. He said as much early last summer…something along the lines of “we’re too far along this path now to change” referring to converting his team to a St. Louis or LA clone. The problem was that he received a pile of negative reinforcement from the Kassian incident and then from getting his teeth plowed in by the massive teams in the Pacific. Like any good manager he learned from his “mistakes” and made some changes and started to move toward a St. Louis model.

    I also believe that he was right in his initial assessment in that, trying to become a “heavy” team when your core is who they are will just result in becoming a shitty version of LA. The tipping point is theoretically there where you a small, skilled team is just too fast for a plodding heavy team. Of course, the tipping point is absolutely there the other way too…some small teams just can’t handle the size of a team like LA.

    But the key here is that we now have PROOF (outside of the Chicago model which is easier to right off as Toews/Kane/Keith) that he was on the right track and that small, fast and skilled can win in today’s NHL over even really good “heavies”. Montreal and Boston. Montreal beat them fair and square. Would they beat them every time? Nope..it was a coin toss at best but that’s pretty good odds against one of the best teams of this generation.

    There’s no use looking at the final four for some magic bullet. All teams seem to have excellent depth at forward but so did St. Louis and they went home 10 days after the Oil. All do seem to have one elite defensemen…so uh, yeah…go get that. What all of these teams have is an identity and a steadfast commitment to playing their style of hockey. They ignore the results and focus on the process. “If we execute our game plan we will win”.

    I’ve often called the Oilers, the Edmonton Doppelgangers. They seem to have this ridiculous need to try and beat others at their game plan instead of working like dogs to play their own game. When Calgary or LA or Vancouver comes to town they dress their bigs and their toughs and try to win 2-1. When they head to Chicago or Toronto…whoo-hoo track meat! Montreal didn’t beat Boston at Boston’s game they beat them by playing their own game. Above all else, the Oilers as a team have to create an identity and get 100% buy in.

    The big problem is the division they are in. There’s just so much of that negative reinforcement coming in and the constant media pressure to be big and tough. Improvement will be subtle but once that tipping point is reached it’ll happen quickly. The Oilers were pretty damned good against the shit of the NHL. I know that isn’t saying much but they were good at beating up bad teams even by good teams standards (if that makes any sense). If they stay the course this year “success” would be continued domination of the weak step sisters, coin toss versus the mushy middle and having their teeth caved in a little less against the West’s beasts.

  14. knighttown says:

    I’d be targeting speed. They won’t be able to cycle for days (like LA or St. Louis) with a core of Ebs, Yak etc so they’ve got to get a higher quantity of cycle opportunities like the Rags and Habs. Guys like Zuccarello, St. Louis, Stepan, Kreider, Nash, Hagelin are insane skaters and even Carcillo, Dorsett and Pouliot can go.

    Our small guys are more (or as) skilled as the Rags guys but save Hall, they aren’t absolute burners.

  15. delooper says:

    Racki:
    I’ll also say if we make a 3rd line that is built around Paajarvi and Lander, I will be choked. I’d like to see some guys come in that are harder to play against. Maybe Steve Ott? Maybe too pricey for what he brings. There are some other names out there, but I haven’t had my coffee yet. Brain = sludge.

    I think a lot of people would be impressed if Paajarvi played on the Oilers 3rd line, given that he’s supposed to report to St. Louis. I imagine St. Louis would raise a stink over that.

  16. Racki says:

    delooper: I think a lot of people would be impressed if Paajarvi played on the Oilers 3rd line, given that he’s supposed to report to St. Louis.I imagine St. Louis would raise a stink over that.

    I’m not that stupid ;) you need to follow the thread. Someone was suggesting above the Oilers trade for him and have him on line 3. That was what I was responding to. (he specifically even suggest a 3rd line with Paajarvi and Lander on it)

  17. delooper says:

    Racki: I’m not that stupid you need to follow the thread. Someone was suggesting above the Oilers trade for him and have him on line 3. That was what I was responding to.

    Okay, now its making sense. It’s been a little glum in here recently. I’ve been skipping over reading the more depressed posters.

  18. Hammers says:

    Seems the fear is that little will be done other than keeping our #1 draft pick . So lets be pessimistic and not optimistic . We keep Gags as a 3rd line “C” and Gordon to 4th line . Draft one of top 3 centers and don’t send back to junior . We have RNH / new kid / Gags / Gordon as your 4 centers .Yak & Perron play with new kid & Hendricks & Lander with Gordon . McT gets at least 1 winger & Arco slots to the other side of Gags. Our “D” stays the same with an add of Hainsy . Klef stays up . So all McT does is add a winger and a Hainsy type “D” . Other option is Ekblad drafted and plays & Arco to 2nd line “C” . If McT only adds 2 UFA players we are bottom 6 again and if your a glass half empty guy that may be all that happens.

  19. Racki says:

    delooper: Okay, now its making sense. It’s been a little glum in here recently. I’ve been skipping over reading the more depressed posters.

    I hear ya. I almost said something similar to someone before I decided to read through and figure it out that people were talking about bringing Paajarvi back. Lol

  20. bendelson says:

    In an effort to make the most staight forward and simple moves to address the gapping holes in the roster… .I propose the following: 2 trades and 4 UFA signings…

    Trade Perron and #3 overall to FLA for Kulikov and #1. Draft Ekblad. Sign Greene (b/c this will happen) and the your defence is ready to go – inexperienced yes, but improved with some depth.

    Kulikov – Petry
    Marincin – Schultz
    Ference – Ekblad
    Klefbom – Greene

    Sign Grabovski and Kulemin and play them with Yakupov on the 2nd line (top 6 minutes might get these guys interested in signing in Edm).

    Find a way to trade Gagner for a consistant 3rd line winger.
    Sign one more UFA for the bottom 6.

    Fin.

    Assuming solid goaltending and coaching (one hell of an assumption I admit), does this get them anywhere close to the playoffs?

  21. nycoil says:

    Thank you, LT. This is what I keep saying– the list of needs is shorter and more obvious to all this summer. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind based on MacT’s moves or lack of moves this summer, but if all goes to a reasonable plan: add two of Markov, Fayne, Hainsey, Niskanen, Nikitin or equivalent, add two of Kulemin, Moss, Winnik, Benoit Pouliot or equivalent, add a Grabovski or Stastny or Nielsen or some such (obviously these Cs aren’t all the same player type and have different costs to acquire) and the Oilers will be battling that Stars and Coyotes and such for 8th place come March 1.

    For the first time ever in this rebuild I am mildly optimistic. But again, ball is in MacT’s court. He needs to show us what he is capable of now.

    Example lineup
    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Grabovski-Kulemin-Yakupov
    Arcobello-Perron-Pouliot
    Gordon-Hendricks-Winnik
    Gazdic, Lander (cut Joensuu loose unless he is healthy and producing)

    Fayne-Niskanen
    Marincin-_Petry
    Ference-Schultz

    Scrivens/Fasth

    Top line: the year Nuge breaks out to 70pts+ and each of his wingers pots 30
    Second line: Two two-way mentors for Yak who can shelter him
    Third line: Two fesity players and a newcomer with two-way game and skill (_but no finish)
    Fourth line: May play as much as the third or second does, in a shut down role.
    Would probably play the 1 line 18 per game and roll the other three 14 per most nights to be honest.

  22. Loweblow says:

    You look at the great teams like LA and Detroit that build through the system, and have a great farm system. Than you have the Oilers that have taken time and money to develop a farm system and once a player shows some promise, someone what’s to trade for a patch job, makes you wonder if they have a clue.

  23. OilClog says:

    bendelson:
    In an effort to make the most staight forward and simple moves to address the gapping holes in the roster… .I propose the following:2 trades and 4 UFA signings…

    Trade Perron and #3 overall to FLA for Kulikov and #1.Draft Ekblad.Sign Greene (b/c this will happen) and the your defence is ready to go – inexperienced yes, but improved with some depth.

    Kulikov – Petry
    Marincin – Schultz
    Ference – Ekblad
    Klefbom – Greene

    Sign Grabovski and Kulemin and play them with Yakupov on the 2nd line (top 6 minutes might get these guys interested in signing in Edm).

    Find a way to trade Gagner for a consistant 3rd line winger.
    Sign one more UFA for the bottom 6.

    Fin.

    Assuming solid goaltending and coaching (one hell of an assumption I admit), does this get them anywhere close to the playoffs?

    Trading Perron creates a hole as of last summer we had no idea to solve; how exactly do we replace Perron? Almost 30 and 30, Agitator, big, nasty, doesn’t back down. Where do we find this?!? Trading David Perron is insanity, there is no replacement for him. None. He’s got more fight back and nasty in him then the rest of our top 6 combined and here we are trading him.

    Let’s just trade Hall and drink lucky.

  24. Kitchener says:

    Fauntleroy:
    I don’t really get the rationale for trading Gagner. He is still a decent offensive player if moved to the wing. He may not be the defensively responsible centre that people wanted him to be, but he could still contribute on a more limited role, we we found out his good friend Cogliano is capable of.

    I believe the rationale is:
    1) He’s too expensive
    2) He doesn’t match fan expectation
    3) We might be able to spend his $4.8M on a more suitable contract

    Deconstructing #1, as LT states (http://oilersnation.com/2014/5/23/max-headroom), the Oil have lots of cap room. Overpaying for a 2 year contract is an acceptable compromise.

    Deconstructing #2, let’s hope the Oilers brass don’t make decisions based on fan expectations.

    Deconstructing #3, we can speculate all we want, but the real options to re-spend Gagner’s $4.8 are a complete mystery to us.

    Of the three items, I find #3 the hardest to argue against.

    On the bright side, let’s remember some of the Gagner pros:
    – if he plays wing, he can always slip back to C in case of injury
    – he wants to be in Edmonton so much he demanded a no-trade
    – he seems like a good guy; friends with Hall & co.
    – he has the hands & awareness to play with elite offensive players
    – a realistic best-case scenario is that he’s one of the best offensive 2Cs in the league. Or, depending on how you shuffle the lines, the soft-parade C. I think he blew his 2C roster spot last season, but optimistically he could regain it.

    In summary, trading Gagner is far from a no-brainer. If there’s a more suitable way to spend his $4.8 or MacT needs trade assets to re-tool the roster, maybe he has to go, but he’s far from dog meat.

    After all that, my guess is that MacT is hoping to flip 89 in a trade for 2/3D or a 2/3C in the mold of MacT the player.

  25. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’m hopeful that this is the off-season that MacT does deliver a ‘bold move’ as I think if he targets the right teams (i.e. those looking to significantly change their mix to take their team to the next level), he might be able to balance this roster and solve a lot of this team’s problems in one fell swoop.

    Here’s 3 potentially viable trades imo.

    CAL
    C Monahan
    D Giordano

    for

    R Yakupov
    3ov pick

    PROS: CAL adds two young blue chips to speed rebuild. Oil land potential 1C and much needed vet D.

    CONS: The veritable deal with the devil. Call it the “Robert Johnson” trade.

    COL
    C O’Reilly
    D Erik Johnson

    for

    3OV Pick
    D Klefbom

    PROS: Deal enables COL to resign Stastny and draft replacement C with potentially higher ceiling than O’Reilly. Oil fast track rebuild with two solid vets with size at key need positions.

    CONS: Contingent on Avs being willing to take 1 step back to take 2 steps forward.

    STL
    C Sobotka
    D Bouwmeester

    for

    RW Yakupov
    D Marincin

    PROS St Loo deals from position of strength (D) to address lack of a gamebreaking sniper. EDM gets desperately needed vet D and proven two-way 2C.

    CONS
    Yak duplicated in the St Loo lineup by fellow ruskie RW Tarasenko? Org feeling burnt by Oil after Paajarvi trade?

  26. bendelson says:

    OilClog: Trading Perron creates a hole as of last summer we had no idea to solve; how exactly do we replace Perron? Almost 30 and 30, Agitator, big, nasty, doesn’t back down. Where do we find this?!? Trading David Perron is insanity, there is no replacement for him. None. He’s got more fight back and nasty in him then the rest of our top 6 combined and here we are trading him. Let’s just trade Hall and drink lucky.

    I understand the reluctance to move Perron. He’s a great player.

    It was suggested because:

    A) the Oilers need to move somebody good to get somebody good.
    B) the Oilers need to move somebody good to move to #1 and land Ekblad.
    C) the Oilers have some depth at wing and very little functional depth at D.
    D) sell high; buy low.
    E) I really like all 220 lbs of Kulemin.

    I am not interested in trading Hall or drinking Lucky.

  27. Halfwise says:

    I think the best trade strategy is diagonal not position-for-position.

    Trade a D for a C, not for a replacement D. Target teams with lots of D depth and offer Gagner + pieces; target teams with C depth and offer (gulp) Schultz.

    This fabled and rare “puck moving RH D” on offer by the Oilers ought to bring back a 2C in the top half of the league talent pool.

    Gagner creates points, and that has value, especially to teams with little offense who are trying to win 2-1 because they have no way of scoring a third goal. Those teams will have well-coached D-men. Gagner and maybe a D prospect ought to free up a Josi type. Getting a defensively responsible second pairing RH D back would be neat and tidy.

    Then sign Larson as a utility player, hell, get him fitted for goalie pads while you’re at it.

    I am probably over-valuing Klefbom and Marincin with this approach but those two sure look promising to me. Find a #1 LH D as a UFA and move everyone down a slot.

  28. Hammers says:

    I just don’t get how so many people throw ideas to McT expecting it to be that easy . There is NO WAY Kulemin & Grabovski come to the Oil unless McT offers $ 5-6 mill a year and there not worth that coin . Like Burke would give up Giordano or Monahan or Roy give up O’Reilly & Johnson . Give your heads a shake . Hope the braintrust can add 2 or 3 pieces and our 1st rd pick . Most of us accept we have to overpay for good UFA’s but not to the point of stupidity .

  29. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    There seems to be a general aversion to using hockey trades to advance the goal of balance in the team. It seems most acute when we are circling anywhere close to our younger assets. I routinely read things like:

    “Sending away Sam Gagner today, or Nail Yakupov, is exactly the kind of thing a bad team does every summer.”

    This seems rooted in a bias towards our selections and the comment is a bit of a throw away statement. Just because we picked them doesn’t mean they are the right pieces for the team or that they are going ‘rebound’. Just because they didn’t have a great season doesn’t mean they don’t have value. Magnus was a great example of what a smart hockey trade can achieve. Hockey trades are an essential mechanism in the journey to cup contention. Embrace it and move to a mindset that ANY of our assets can and should be in play dependent on what might come the other way. It is every bit as important as using the draft or UFA signings to ultimately reach winning a cup. If you don’t use it (smartly and constantly) and include your primo assets in the mix for trades, there isn’t a chance you’ll win the cup. Zero. Should we evaluate whether a particular trade was a good one or not – sure. But to me, not one player is untouchable and you shouldn’t downplay the tactic by suggesting considering young players for trades is what dumb teams do. Its a constant chess match and unless you’re ready to horse trade with the Lombardi’s, Sather’s, Bowman’s, Chiarelli’s, and Holland’s of the league and take serious risk on occasion forget the notion of cup contention. We have generally young assets – that’s what is on the table.

    I remember some close to the Av’s screaming bloody murder when Stewart and Shattenkirk were dealt for Johnson. Did the Av’s fall apart? Is Johnson not there no.1 minute muncher? Are they not a team on the rise? This is the reality MacT faces and for the time being I think he has the mustard to make astute moves when the opportunity exists. The jury is out but let’s not assume we shouldn’t do the trades and we will always lose in the transaction. In Sam’s case, he clearly does not fit – not at all. So, a move needs to happen here.. .

  30. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I usually avoid injecting into trade proposals, which always seem EA NHL 14 rather than reality based, BUT you did use the word “viable” and I just don’t see that being the case.

    - CAL’s rebuild is based on Giordano at D and Monahan at C. Why would they trade that for a question mark on wing (albeit with a far higher ceiling than Monahan) and a high end prospect who is unlikely to be a D?

    - ROR is an RFA this year, with a $6M+ qualifying offer. It’s hard to imagine a team that has Duchene, Mackinnon, and Landeskog available for relatively cheap then forking out another $14M for those two guys. Either he or Stastny will become a UFA this year

    - Bouwmeester already turned down the idea of playing for his hometown team back when he was being courted as a UFA. He signed with the Flames *spits* instead. Why would he waive his NTC to come to Edmonton now?

  31. Pouzar says:

    What’s with the undying love for PRV in Oilerville?

    Just don’t get it.

  32. cahill says:

    G Money: – Bouwmeester already turned down the idea of playing for his hometown team back when he was being courted as a UFA. He signed with the Flames *spits* instead. Why would he waive his NTC to come to Edmonton now?

    This is not a true statement. Calgary did a proactive thing the Oilers could have done the same. The Oilers never had the opportunity to sign JayBo.

    Unable to come to terms with Bouwmeester, the Panthers traded his negotiating rights to the Calgary Flames in exchange for the negotiating rights to defenceman Jordan Leopold and a third round draft pick (Josh Birkholz) in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.[25] The deal gave the Flames four days with which they had exclusive rights to negotiate with Bouwmeester before he became an unrestricted free agent and gained the ability to negotiate with any team. Hours before that deadline expired, Bouwmeester and the Flames agreed to a five-year, $33 million contract.[26].

  33. Woodguy says:

    A veteran top pairing defenseman, one who can play 25 minutes a night in all three disciplines.

    Aim a little lower and Stralman fits the bill.

    Can be a workhorse, but not a PP guy. Jultz, Marincin and Petry can play PP, Oilers use 4 F anyhow

    A 2line C with experience and the ability to play a two-way game. He needs to score 40 points and do some heavy lifting. He also needs to be mentor to Yakupov, as needed and that might be the entire season.

    This perfectly describes Grabovski

    A legit two-way winger who can score 12-15 goals, kill penalties, and mentor young up and comers as needed.

    This perfectly describes Kulimen.

    Grabbo and Kulimen want to be a package. Get them both

    Find a way to get value, or make use of, Sam Gagner. This does not include time at center.

    If you can’t land a Stralman, then I try to trade Gagner for Sekera or similar. Sekera plays all disciplines and wouldn’t be way over his head at 1LD, but he wouldn’t be ideal either.

    I look to make the best value trade I can. I’m going to lose the trade, but I try like hell to lose as little as possible. Must be a NHL player or prospect I really, really, really like (like Salo for Gilbert type thing)

    Improve the bottom 6F’s.

    This is the easiest thing on the list. Stop hiring the Ryan Jones of the world and put a C there like Arco or Lander and have players to play. Sit Gazdic as much as possible.

    Retain as much of the young cluster as possible, understanding that the player who represents #1 on this list might cost a young D who will one day fill that role.
    Get Petry signed long term.
    Sign Schultz but DO NOT break the bank.

    This is why I’m going UFA as much as I can to fill the holes.

    Grabbo and Kulimen wanting to be on the same team limits where they can go and Oilers have a shot.

    Stralman isn’t famous so you can actually win him in FA with a promise of 1RD role and bid higher than anyone. He’s coming off earning $1.6MM, so something like $4MM might be the highest bid.

    I’ve looked pretty hard at Stralman and he is probably the most underrated Dman that is UFA this summer. I go very hard after him and he’s only 27 so you can do term too.

    Oiler fans will hate him because he skates well, plays D well, passes well and is only 5;10.

  34. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Stralman isn’t famous so you can actually win him in FA with a promise of 1RD role and bid higher than anyone. He’s coming off earning $1.6MM, so something like $4MM might be the highest bid.
    I’ve looked pretty hard at Stralman and he is probably the most underrated Dman that is UFA this summer. I go very hard after him and he’s only 27 so you can do term too.
    Oiler fans will hate him because he skates well, plays D well, passes well and is only 5;10.

    I like Stralman a lot.

    I also like a few more of the UFAs (I’ve mentioned Fayne, Niskanen, Quincy, Gilbert and Hainsey a few times).

    But, I keep circling back to MacT saying the D crop was thin and that he didn’t want “middle of the road” D (which I think he probably sees Stralman and all the names I’ve listed as) before saying teams are locking up their high-end guys, and mentioning Andrew MacDonald.

    That’s scary folks. I think if he looks at the D UFA crop, he might be looking at only Markov, Boyle and Orpik.

  35. Caramel Obvious says:

    There is no realistic path forward and the reason for this is obvious.

    The “rebuild” started from zero. An expansion team.

    The Oilers had three straight #1 picks but two of them have not played anything like #1 picks.

    While the Oilers were drafting #1 they didn’t get any found money from later in the draft of college free agency. In the meantime the Kings “found” Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli, the Habs Gallager, the Rangers have Hagelin and Zuccarello, the Blackhawks, Saad, and Shaw

    You can’t trade your way out of this. You can’t sign your way out of this. The #1′s need to become stars and you need to get lucky somewhere. That’s it.

    The proposals here are either unrealistic or bad ideas, or both (which is quite a trick and yet we manage).

    So I want them to sign Grabovski and Kulemin and the rest too. But let’s not kid ourselves. No team ever gets their pick of all the available free agents. And even if they did it probably wouldn’t be enough.

    Given this, you can’t trade away the young players because if you do then have no chance at all. Turning those cards in trumps is the only chance the Oilers have. If you trade them, for Phaneuf, or whomever, you don’t have any cards left all. Phaneuf won’t be enough. Not even close.

  36. BrazilianOil says:

    I made my rooster on capgeek after read about the kulemin grabo package. I put markov too and trade bailey for gagner and the result was http://capgeek.com/armchair-gm/roster/16352

  37. Caramel Obvious says:

    I will say that the way forward is the Woodguy/Romulus path. In fact, I think I was the first to put Stralman’s name out there.

    The best possible scenario is very clear:

    Trade Gagner + all picks but #3 + anyone in the minors but Nurse for Josi
    Sign Stralman
    Sign Grabovski
    Sign Kulemin

    Is this enough? Maybe. I happen to think it is pretty unrealistic. The free agent market isn’t a store where you get what you want. Neither are trades.

  38. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I usually avoid injecting into trade proposals, which always seem EA NHL 14 rather than reality based, BUT you did use the word “viable” and I just don’t see that being the case.

    - CAL’s rebuild is based on Giordano at D and Monahan at C.Why would they trade that for a question mark on wing (albeit with a far higher ceiling than Monahan) and a high end prospect who is unlikely to be a D?

    - ROR is an RFA this year, with a $6M+ qualifying offer.It’s hard to imagine a team that has Duchene, Mackinnon, and Landeskog available for relatively cheap then forking out another $14M for those two guys.Either he or Stastny will become a UFA this year

    - Bouwmeester already turned down the idea of playing for his hometown team back when he was being courted as a UFA.He signed with the Flames *spits* instead.Why would he waive his NTC to come to Edmonton now?

    With the CAL trade A) obviously they’d have to buy into Yak’s potential and B) the draft pick gives them the ability to immediately replace and upgrade on Monahan or even Giordano should Ekblad slip to #3. Cowtown’s a ways away from being a true contender. I’m not sure they’re married to building around a 30 year old D. If anything the trade’s weighted in favour of Calgary, a 1ov and 3ov for 7ov and an undrafted player.

    With COL, the O’Reilly contract was forced on COL. For that very reason, I could see a trade scenario involving him as viable, especially given the depth the team has at C with Duchene and Stastny. If you’re looking to match the CHI’s and LA”s of this league, adding Klebom and a 3rd overall might be pretty darn appealing.

    Bouwmeester issue addressed/clarified by Cahill further down the thread. Thanks!

  39. Woodguy says:

    Stralman’s WOWY are pretty ridiculous

    This year (everyone over 200min together)

    STAAL, MARC +7.6
    RICHARDS, BRAD +2.4
    BRASSARD, DERICK +8.5
    ZUCCARELLO, MATS +6.3
    HAGELIN, CARL+5.3
    STEPAN, DEREK +5.6
    POULIOT, BENOIT +5.9
    BOYLE, BRIAN +5.2
    KREIDER, CHRIS +2.9
    NASH, RICK +0.2
    CALLAHAN, RYAN +7.4
    MOORE, DOMINIC +9.6

    That’s crazy good

    last year:

    MCDONAGH, RYAN +10.4
    HAGELIN, CARL +6.1
    RICHARDS, BRAD +8.9
    DEL_ZOTTO, MICHAEL +4.8
    STEPAN, DEREK +8.5
    PYATT, TAYLOR +10.1
    NASH, RICK +4.8
    CALLAHAN, RYAN +11.8
    GABORIK, MARIAN +7.6
    BOYLE, BRIAN +1.6
    STAAL, MARC +1
    MILLER, J.T. +2.4
    POWE, DARROLL +8.1

    That just nutty good.

    RelCor the last two years on good Rags teams:

    12/13 +11.2
    13/14 +15.8

    The only thing is that he’s been playing 2nd pairing.

    That being said, if there were every a fancy stats case for a guy killing his current assignment so he’s probably ready for a tougher assignment, this is it.

  40. Winn says:

    I can’t figure out everybody’s rabid eagerness to get rid of Sam Gagner. Sam was injured and didn’t have a good season because of it, and that, along with his contract, has lowered his trading value. It’s true that his two-way play as a center leaves a lot to be desired, but before sending him away for something as pathetic as a 2nd round draft pick, they should give him a long look as a winger. Sam is worth far more than any recent second round choice is now worth. By the time the 2015 trade deadline is upon us, it should be obvious to everyone whether or not he is a good fit there. It’s not like the Oilers aren’t in need of someone else who can play the wing effectively in the top 9. Give Gagner a shot! Run the 3rd line as a sheltered scoring line with Gag’s, Yak, and (insert Bennett, Reinhart, ???), use Hendrick’s and Gordon on the 4th line as a checking line, and have line 1 and 4 do the heavy lifting against the others top lines, with lines 2 and 3 getting more O-zone starts and easier competition. Against all but the deepest of teams, this approach should be effective.

  41. Cameron says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    As one of the resident lurkers out of Calgary I can tell you that Calgary would have exactly zero interest in trading Monahan – let alone trading Monahan to Edmonton.

    Far, far, more likely is that Calgary makes that trade if Backlund is the pivot instead, but even if that substitution were done I don’t think Calgary would do it.

  42. ashley says:

    Of course, we all know it’s not this simple. GM’ing is more art (and a little luck) than making a list and crossing the items off. There are only a few tools at their disposal. Trading means you have to give something up to get something. Good for balancing, not so much for filling gaping holes only to create another.

    So that leaves free agency. Paying 7 million x 5 for the best free agent dman out there is not going to do the oilers any favours. The key is to build a full cap team where the most talent is amassed for the least amount of money.

    Every year we see good NHL players, or at least valuable ones that could definitely help a team that have zero or negative value in the trade market. Some of them even end up in the minors. Why? Because they have big contracts that limit any team from adding other talented players.

    So MacT has to walk the same fine line as any one else. A 7million x 5 contract could be just as bad or even more devastating than trading Taylor Hall. The former devastation is just not as overt as the latter.

    I believe Edmonton suffers from the Pronger syndrome. We think that the Oilers will only be good when we have a #1D. Lots of teams function very well with 3 or 4 above average Dmen, 1 or 2 that tread water, and one that doesn’t cut the corsi mustard, but perhaps is a rookie, or brings something specialized to the table. This is a more cost effective way to build a winner. We might be able to get two, or two and a half good dmen who are better than all of the ones on our current roster for the price of a 7 or 8 million dollar free agent.

    I would aim lower on D, and keep some cap powder dry to allow for the flexibility required to build a winner.

  43. Caramel Obvious says:

    ashley,

    I think you nailed it with the Pronger syndrome. Everything about how the fans talk about the team is coloured by this.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    before saying teams are locking up their high-end guys, and mentioning Andrew MacDonald.

    That statement makes me weep.

    The ability of Oiler management to assess pro players is awful.

    The funny thing is that Stralman is better than most of the famous names available and he’s viewed this way.

    He doesn’t bring any offence so he won’t really get paid much and many teams who need him won’t even call him.

    Eric T had an interesting post up the other day:

    http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/5/21/5738518/nhl-stats-method-sample-size-scouting

    One thing he found was that the pro scouting template he was given was didn’t do much other than figure out who got the most points. Not much scouting there when you think about it.

    His followup piece: http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/5/22/5739838/nhl-stats-ratings-scouts-veterans

    Talked about how scouts tended to overvalue veterans.

    Its reasons like this that very good players (and fancy stat favorites) like Grabbo, MacArther etc don’t seem to be in demand or make what they should.

    Those two pieces made me think about how basic NHL scouting actually is in some organizations.

    The NHL is ripe for teams to rip it up using this stuff.

    CHI, SJS, BOS and other already are while most of the rest chase their tales and try to out bid each other for Orpik types.

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cameron:
    Bag of Pucks,

    As one of the resident lurkers out of Calgary I can tell you that Calgary would have exactly zero interest in trading Monahan – let alone trading Monahan to Edmonton.

    Far, far, more likely is that Calgary makes that trade if Backlund is the pivot instead, but even if that substitution were done I don’t think Calgary would do it.

    A year removed from being the 7ov pick and now Monahan is untouchable?

    I’m not sure GMs are as loyal and intractable as people think. GMs look at players as assets and their fit into an overall plan.

    If CAL could flip Monahan (7ov) a year later for the 3ov (for a C with potentially more upside) and trade a 30 year old D who potentially has 3 more solid years for a potential 40 goal scorer yet to hit his prime, I think Burke is smart enough to do that deal in a heartbeat.

    Yak’s had one off year, a lot of sophomore’s have done the same in this league. I don’t think his value is nearly as low as what some are insinuating.

    The only reason I’m even advocating this deal is that it addresses 2 critical need positions for the Oil. In terms of asset management, it’s far from best practice. I would agree, it’s highly unlikely the Flames and Oilers will ever hookup in a blockbuster of this ilk. Too much potential for bad optics and negative fallout in both markets.

  46. G Money says:

    cahill: This is not a true statement. Calgary did a proactive thing the Oilers could have done the same. The Oilers never had the opportunity to sign JayBo.

    No.

    He signed a one year deal (after RFA the year before) with Florida, taking him to UFA, then during the year refused to sign his next contract with Florida because he wanted to go to a contender.

    At the time he had the dubious distinction of being one of the longest-serving players never to have played in the playoffs.

    As a result, the Edmonton native was rumoured as an Oiler trade/UFA that entire year.

    Whether Edmonton might have got the chance to get him and he kiboshed it, or whether Edmonton decided against it, or whether Calgary really did just scoop everyone I do not know.

    But Bouwmeester wanted out of Florida so he could play on a contender (which at that time Calgary was), something he said a number of times. He might not have said explicitly that he wouldn’t come to Edmonton, but at the time the Oilers were no closer to being a contender then they are now, so it wasn’t going to happen.

    So, to my original point – he ain’t gonna waive his NTC to come here now either. So any trade proposal that has him coming to Edmonton is not viable.

  47. Woodguy says:

    Also,

    Stralman was getting easier ZS, so that helps his numbers some, but they weren’t outrageous.

    50.9% this year
    57.9% last year (Rags finished a ton in the Ozone that year, toughest was 46.8%)

  48. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: If CAL could flip Monahan (7ov) a year later for a the 3ov (for a C with potentially more upside) and trade a 30 year old D who potentially has 3 more solid years for a potential 40 goal scorer yet to hit his prime, I think Burke is smart enough to do that deal in a heartbeat.

    It’s not a smart deal.

    Monahan @ 7ov is already a proven NHL player.

    The 3ov “with potentially more upside” is not an NHL player yet. May never be an NHL player.

    So your Yak+3 for Gio+Monahan becomes this:

    An unproven enigma-labelled underachieving 1ov for a proven top pairing defender

    and

    A 7ov 40 pt C for a 3ov likely C with “potential”.

    That’s smart only if you spell it S M R T.

    (If you’re so convinced that Yak = surefire 40g scorer and 3ov > Monahan are sure things, why would you trade them?)

  49. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money

    So, to my original point – he ain’t gonna waive his NTC to come here now either.So any trade proposal that has him coming to Edmonton is not viable.

    To be fair, unless he’s verbally confirmed Edmonton as a ‘no’ destination, this is purely speculation on your part, no?

  50. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money: It’s not a smart deal.

    Monahan @ 7ov is already a proven NHL player.

    The 3ov “with potentially more upside” is not an NHL player yet.May never be an NHL player.

    So your Yak+3 for Gio+Monahan becomes this:

    An unproven enigma-labelled underachieving 1ov for a proven top pairing defender

    and

    A 7ov 40 pt C for a 3ov likely C with “potential”.

    That’s smart only if you spell it S M R T.

    Monahan = proven? Yakupov = underachiever?

    Small sample size bias decision making = SMRT?

  51. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: To be fair, unless he’s verbally confirmed Edmonton as a ‘no’ destination, this is purely speculation on your part, no?

    Yes. Correction – it’s an inference, which is quite different from speculation (in the blog posting sense).

  52. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: Monahan = proven? Yakupov = underachiever?

    Small sample size bias decision making = SMRT?

    Which of those do you disagree with?

    You think Yakupov is NOT labelled an underachiever? (whether you think he is or not is irrelevant. When you propose a trade, it’s what the OTHER guy thinks of your asset that matters. And NO-ONE is going to value Yakupov like a 40 goal scorer. No one).

    You think there is anyone out there that does NOT think Monahan scoring 20+ goals as a rookie makes him a proven commodity?

    I bet if you polled most NHL GM’s right now, most of them wouldn’t trade Monahan for Yakupov straight up. THAT’s pure speculation in the pure sense of the word in that I’d take that bet.

  53. Woodguy says:

    Monahan will probably be a good NHLer.

    However he shot 15.7% scoring 22 with 12 assists with a -20 last year.

    Put up the worst RelCor on the team besides the face punchers Wesgarth and McGrattan while getting the softest comp (besides the facepunchers)

    That’s ok, he’s a rookie, that’s what they do.

    That shooting percentage has all but guaranteed at least 14,285 articles on his “Sophomore Slump” next year.

    Kinda like Yak going from 21% to 9% but not as bad (assuming Monahan’s agent doesn’t do something really stupid like Yak’s did)

  54. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Yep. Monahan is all but guaranteed to suffer that slump (unless he’s the greatest sniper since Ovie, which I doubt very much).

    Yak is suffering much that same slump, though it’s even worse than that (when I did my breakdown of Yak’s Corsi trend over the season over at C&B, the young lad was solidly positive in Corsi and CorsiRel early last season and was shooting at around 2% TWO PERCENT yeah you read that right TWO percent during that phase. Ouch).

    I believe that Yak >>> Monahan, and that this will prove out over the next few years.

    But right now?

    I bet if you offered Burke Yak straight up for Monahan, he wouldn’t take it.

    As in life (where perception is reality), in trades, perception is value. And outside of his loyal Oiler fanbase, the perception of Yak out there is not so good.

  55. Mr DeBakey says:

    1. A veteran top pairing defenseman, one who can play 25 minutes a night in all three disciplines.

    Two disciplines would be plenty. Chris Pronger ain’t available this summer.

    Two or three good but overpaid guys [thus cheap] acquired in trade would go a long way to papering over the Oilers’ cracks.
    - the oft-mentioned Mr Dion Cuthbert fits into this category. Does James Wisniewski?
    - others include from San Jose, Havlat & Kenedy; David Booth from Van man; One of the Staal brothers; maybe even Bickell in Chicago [tho' thats a bit of a stretch]

  56. rickithebear says:

    looking at Every Russian Fed/RSl/KHl forward drafted from 2000;
    There are a collection Near .15+GPG and .30+PPG but the .20 GPG forwards are quite successful in the NHL.
    2000
    Vorobiev .22 GPG .45 PPG
    Frolov .20 .35
    2001
    Svitov .20 .37
    2002
    Semin .21 .36
    2003
    Zheredev .27 .54
    2004
    Ovechkin .24 .43
    Malkin .23 .61
    Alexandrov .16 .36 Never came over
    2006
    Kulemin .16 .42
    Bumagin .23 .58 never came over
    2007
    Cheripanov .32 .61
    Dadanov 016 .46
    2010
    Tarasenko .31 .57
    Kuznetsov .38 .73
    2012
    Yakupov .41 .82
    Kosov .18 .33
    2013
    Nischuskin (17) .22 .35
    Buchnevich .17 .45
    Yakimov .21 .36
    Slepyshev .27 .35

    The history says that Slepyshev and yalimov will be highly Productive EV G and PT producers if they come to NA.

    ilike the oilers aproach of targeting mature Russian Forwards entering into a free contract phase.

    A guy like

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=94663

    Fits;

  57. FastOil says:

    knighttown:
    I’d be targeting speed.They won’t be able to cycle for days (like LA or St. Louis) with a core of Ebs, Yak etc so they’ve got to get a higher quantity of cycle opportunities like the Rags and Habs.Guys like Zuccarello, St. Louis, Stepan, Kreider, Nash, Hagelin are insane skaters and even Carcillo, Dorsett and Pouliot can go.

    Our small guys are more (or as) skilled as the Rags guys but save Hall, they aren’t absolute burners.

    I couldn’t agree more. The league is heading toward high tempo play again I think. The Oilers talk about it, we’ll see if it can make it’s way to the ice.

  58. judgedrude says:

    In the photo, why is the Golden Nugge not sitting on the other side of Hall? Could someone please photoshop and put it the right way for LT?

  59. godot10 says:

    I think the goal for the forward is to improve the middle six.

    The top three (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle),
    And the bottom five (4th line plus PB, Hendricks, Lander, Arcobello, Pitlick, Gadzic, Joensuu)

    is fine.

    The middle six

    You have Perron, Gordon, Yakupov, Gagner, XXX, YYY

    So the needs at forward are really two middle six forwards, and upgrading Gagner if possible.

  60. russ99 says:

    Every playoff team in the West has a third shutdown line.

    Enough of this “middle six”, “top nine”, “second toughs”, “sheltered scoring” stuff.

    The goal here is to get as competitive as possible.

    The concepts above are giving in to the idea that because we can’t compete, we can still fudge it and keep much of what we have (outside of the 5 core kids, Gordon and Perron) and still do better, and somehow accomplish that with three scoring lines when that doesn’t win in today’s NHL.

  61. Woodguy says:

    russ99,

    Every playoff team in the West has a third shutdown line.

    Except for CHI,which uses their 4th line for dzone starts and plays the toughest.

    Except for LAK which used Kopitar against the toughest comp last year

    Except COL used Landeskog and Statsny as their main shut down forward pair, lots of offence there.

    Except DAL sent Benn and Seguin out for the toughest assingments

    Except SJS, who used a mix of players, but mostly Thorton and Burns

    MIN did with Brodziak and Cooke

    ANA did with Koivu, Cogliano +

    So, ya, except for 6 of the 8 of them, all the WC use a 3rd shutdown line.

    Given the way the Oilers are constructed it makes most sense to do what CHI does and send Gordon/Hendricks + X the heavy dzone starts and send Hall PvP and let the rest score when they can but not be a liability.

  62. Jordan says:

    Woodguy:
    russ99,

    Every playoff team in the West has a third shutdown line.

    Except for CHI,which uses their 4th line for dzone starts and plays the toughest.

    Except for LAK which used Kopitar against the toughest comp last year

    Except COL used Landeskog and Statsny as their main shut down forward pair, lots of offence there.

    Except DAL sent Benn and Seguin out for the toughest assingments

    Except SJS, who used a mix of players, but mostly Thorton and Burns

    MIN did with Brodziak and Cooke

    ANA did with Koivu, Cogliano +

    So, ya, except for 6 of the 8 of them, all the WC use a 3rd shutdown line.

    Given the way the Oilers are constructed it makes most sense to do what CHI does and send Gordon/Hendricks + X the heavy dzone starts and send Hall PvP and let the rest score when they can but not be a liability.

    One of the items that needs a lot of attention this offseason is how these successful teams transition effectively from the D-zone to the O-zone. The easiest way to make sure the weaker lines can not be a liability is for them to spend more time in the O-zone. That means either starting there and staying there (keeping the puck in at the line or preventing controlled zone exists) or bringing the puck into the zone and creating o-zone pressure. The only way to have offensive zone starts is to get the puck in the zone and keep it in until a faceoff. Therefore, the most important work for the Oilers to do, is to fix the transition game.

    I challenge you Oilogosphere – How do the best in the league transition well? What do they do differently from the Oilers? How can it be adapted to our personnel?

    Clearly the current staff have failed to do this to date.

    Can we (and by we, I mean someone else) create a play-book for Eakins and company to fix this team?

  63. Wolfie says:

    From previous discussions on Schultz it’s been established that the organization values him tremendously. My uncle is friends with Justin’s dad in Kelowna and he played minor hockey with my cousin. Anyway, the second hand news is a 3 or 4 year deal for Justin at roughly $4M. Apparently Justin loves being in Edmonton and the kids are pretty tight. Take it for what it’s worth.

  64. denny33 says:

    Pouzar,

    What’s with the undying love for PRV in Oilerville?
    Just don’t get it.
    *************************************************************
    Boggles the mind….12 points all of last year on a top team.

    He was able to rack up 6 penalty minutes…that blew me away.

  65. denny33 says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    There is no realistic path forward and the reason for this is obvious.
    The “rebuild” started from zero. An expansion team.
    The Oilers had three straight #1 picks but two of them have not played anything like #1 picks.
    While the Oilers were drafting #1 they didn’t get any found money from later in the draft of college free agency. In the meantime the Kings “found” Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli, the Habs Gallager, the Rangers have Hagelin and Zuccarello, the Blackhawks, Saad, and Shaw
    You can’t trade your way out of this. You can’t sign your way out of this. The #1′s need to become stars and you need to get lucky somewhere. That’s it.
    The proposals here are either unrealistic or bad ideas, or both (which is quite a trick and yet we manage).
    So I want them to sign Grabovski and Kulemin and the rest too. But let’s not kid ourselves. No team ever gets their pick of all the available free agents. And even if they did it probably wouldn’t be enough.
    Given this, you can’t trade away the young players because if you do then have no chance at all. Turning those cards in trumps is the only chance the Oilers have. If you trade them, for Phaneuf, or whomever, you don’t have any cards left all. Phaneuf won’t be enough. Not even close.
    **********************************************************************************************
    Completely agree…..

    Anyone looking to the UFA scrap heap for a solution to a 28th place team that got OWNED regularly by the WC is barking up the wrong tree.

    Hainsey….Gilbert ?

    It is like watching a homeless guy in downtown Winnipeg pick out of the garbage cans.

  66. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    ,

    I bet if you offered Burke Yak straight up for Monahan, he wouldn’t take it.

    As in life (where perception is reality), in trades, perception is value.And outside of his loyal Oiler fanbase, the perception of Yak out there is not so good.

    Again, this is pure speculation on your part.

    A kneejerk, reactionary GM might base their assessment on this flawed ‘perception’ alone. I don’t think an experienced NHL GM looks at players through nearly that narrow a lense.

    It’s possible Calgary view Yakupov this way. It’s also entirely possibly they view him as a recent consensus No. 1 (quite likely, one they had atop their own list), and their ‘perception’ is “Edmonton is screwing this kid up mightily. We know how to develop players. Look at Monahan! lol This Yakupov kid will be a perennial 40 goal scorer if we let our coaches work with him” etc.

    I think you’re greatly underrating how much GMs value elite talent and draft pedigree. 1ovs, even eventual busts, get multiple chances precisely because of this bias.

    You’re throwing out Giordano/Monahan for Yakupov/3 overall as a completely ludicrous scenario, but you’ve not once addressed the obvious disparity in asset management (Calgary nets a 1ov & 3ov in return for a 7ov and an undrafted player) and it’s one in which Calgary gets younger and more cap space! This trade scenario is not nearly as untenable as your reaction to it would indicate, which tells me that your own inherent bias towards Yakupov’s ‘perceived’ value is HUGE and quite likely wrong.

  67. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: Calgary nets a 1ov & 3ov in return for a 7ov and an undrafted player

    Dude, if this is how you think the trade goes down, no wonder you think it’s tenable. Thanks for the laugh though.

    “7ov and an undrafted player”?

    How about

    “a 20g first year player and an undisputed 1D”?

    Get real.

    And that’s not even talking about the Yakupov perception deficit. If the Oilers trade Yak, they are selling low and won’t get anywhere close to full value, no matter who they trade with.

    You can argue about how big the perception deficit is, but the fact that it exists is indisputable.

    Dreger may be a moron, but I don’t doubt that his view is echoed by a LOT of NHL people: “… So it makes sense that they’ll try and move him. They were trying to move him at various points this season. Word is out that Nail Yakupov is available. The problem is, no one really wants him. Certainly not for the value that the Edmonton Oilers are going to need to get back in return.”

    And Staples’ conclusion that follows is also pretty much right on:
    “That said, I have no doubt what Dreger says about Yakupov is what every single, conventional NHL insider in Edmonton and around the NHL is saying about the kid. He doesn’t appear to have even good puck sense. His play without the puck is weak. He deserves some criticism and does need to play much better.”
    (http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/03/13/tsns-dreger-rips-nail-yakupov-says-its-unlikley-he-will-be-an-edmonton-oilers-next-season/)

    That about sums it up. I’m a Yak fan. I love the kid. I want him to succeed, and I hope that he does turn into a perennial 40 goal scorer.

    But trading Yak this summer for Monahan or Giordano? Not going to happen.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    The ‘perception’ argument that I can get behind is Cameron’s.

    I could certainly see a scenarios where Flames management would be highly reluctant to trade a kid they’ve anointed as a ‘cornerstone’ to their hated provincial rival.

    But…imagine a scenario where Bennett and Ekblad have come off the board and this trade proposal is floated then with the Oil on the cusp of their pick?

    Calgary gets Reinhart and Yakupov for Monahan and Giordano? I think that’s a very palatable trade to sell to the Flames fanbase.

    That exact scenario would be a huge acid test for MacT and his scouts, cos your simultaneously comparing the projected values of Reinhart, Draisaitl, Yakupov and Monahan – with Giordano the only really ‘known’ quantity.

    Quite honestly, one of the reasons I’ve advocated these trade scenarios (i.e. our picks and/or prospects for proven players) is I’m not convinced MacT and the Magnificent Bastard have the chops to answer those hard questions. I think their crystal ball is mighty cloudy and that’s a big part of the problem. The Oiler don’t do prognostication well. They do much better when the transaction return is a well established and known quantity. I think a big part of this is they overrate their own development acumen.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money

    But trading Yak this summer for Monahan or Giordano?Not going to happen.

    I think the 3ov might bear mentioning in that dismissal?

    A potential franchise player pick has a little more value than the average trade ‘sweetener’ or dare I say it…bag of pucks.

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    If we’re going to compare apples to apples

    Nail Yakupov’s rookie season 17g/48gp .35GPG
    Sean Monahan’s rookie season 22g/75gp .29GPG

  71. cahill says:

    Woodguy,

    I really like Stralman. He would be my primary target this free agency if I was a GM. I’m worried that the braintrust wants a physical RD behind Petry and Schultz. Which I dont necessarily agree with, but that’s why I didn’t have him as a target. If I was to have the Free Agency value contracts it is Stralman & Kulemin right now.

    Before you posted. I was thinking about the idea of trading Petry & getting an upgrade. But then signing Stralman to fill Petry’s role. I think that he’s likely going to be in the 4.5 range for the Oil to sign Stralman and I would still do that deal. I can envision a Stralman-Klefbom pairing playing the Oduya-hjalmarsson tough pairing role in 15-16.

  72. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money, in short, this trade boils down to future upside for known quantities.

    You’re absolutely right, CAL would have to view the future upside as greater than the known quantities.

    Rather than Yak v Monahan, possibly it’s more illustrative to look at it from another direction.

    Is 3ov in this year’s draft better than Monahan? If your answer is no, end of discussion as you obviously value the known quantity far higher than both the actual currency and projected value of the asset itself. Believe me, if you could flip the 7ov pick for the 1ov pick each season in the NHL, you’d eventually build a pretty damn good hockey team.

    So it’s 30 year old Mark Giordano for the 1st overall pick still on his entry level deal. Yep, it would absolutely take balls of steel to see enough in Yak right now to make that trade, but to be fair, this is Burke we’re talking about. Look at what he traded to get Phil Kessel.

  73. VanOil says:

    rickithebear:
    A guy like

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=94663

    Good find Ricki. Alexander Kadeykin a 6’5″ Center that can score. I have not seen any proof he can skate but the scouts have to earn there money some how. It will be interesting to see if he goes in this years draft. Is he old enough to sign as a Free Agent? Or does that require a contract offer where a draft pick is just a cash and roster spot free way of securing his NHL rights?

  74. FastOil says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    G Money, in short, this trade boils down to future upside for known quantities.

    You’re absolutely right, CAL would have to view the future upside as greater than the known quantities.

    Rather than Yak v Monahan, possibly it’s more illustrative to look at it from another direction.

    Is 3ov in this year’s draft better than Monahan? If your answer is no, end of discussion as you obviously value the known quantity far higher than both the actual currency and projected value of the asset itself.Believe me, if you could flip the 7ov pick for the 1ov pick each season in the NHL, you’d eventually build a pretty damn good hockey team.

    So it’s 30 years old Mark Giordan0 for the 1st overall pick still on his entry level deal. Yep, it would absolutely take balls of steel to see enough in Yak right now to make that trade, but to be fair, this is Burke we’re talking about. Look at what he traded to get Phil Kessel.

    Burke likes Americans. Probably hates commies. Trade him Pitlick and Arco for Monahan and Giordano.

  75. Younger Oil says:

    Does anyone think that Derek Roy would be a viable option for a #2C if we are unable to get someone like Stastny or Grabovski? He put up 37 points in 75 games this season, while only playing about 13:40 a night. Might be good on a two or three year overpay to bridge the gap between now and the time the #3OV is able to begin to step into that role.

  76. cahill says:

    Younger Oil:
    Does anyone think that Derek Roy would be a viable option for a #2C if we are unable to get someone like Stastny or Grabovski? He put up 37 points in 75 games this season, while only playing about 13:40 a night. Might be good on a two or three year overpay to bridge the gap between now and the time the #3OV is able to begin to step into that role.

    I like Roy. Not sure if he’d be much of an overpay. He was perceived as a flop in VAN, which I think was unjustified. I think the Blues will move on from him. He had heavy offensive zone starts this year, but the year before in Dallas he was in the defense zone starts and still put up more shots than he had against. If they got two centers – one guy like Roy the other a guy like Lewis or Boyle a bigger center that can play a more defensive role than I could see a fit.

  77. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Your discussion of known vs future upside probably does capture the difference. We see the two very very differently.

    The first issue is: I don’t care where Monahan was drafted. He’s now got a year under his belt in the NHL, and the question now becomes how much he’s shown. You can argue that 3ov is “better” than Monahan, but Monahan actually outscored all the forwards last year who were drafted above him other than 1ov (Barkov at 2ov, Drouin who is in Jr still, and Lindholm at 5ov). If you redrafted now, where would Monahan go? 2? 3?

    So the first issue is: why would you trade 3ov this year for EITHER Monahan or Giordano? In either case, the likely BEST CASE scenario is that you get someone that good – a 1D or a top notch 2C.

    If the Oilers get a guy comparable to Monahan out of the 3ov, slotted to play 2C, we’ll be dancing in the streets.

    The worst case for the 3ov is much much worse than that.

    So the issue is: from Burke’s perspective, your trade for the 3ov is the losing side of the trade, whether its for Monahan or Giordano. So you better feel that you’re winning the Yak side of the trade.

    So the second issue is: what is Yak worth?

    Yak for Monahan? Yeah, I’d do that trade (from the Flambes perspective) if it was a standalone trade. I still think Yak will be a top rank 1W, while Monahan looks like a poor 1C/good 2C to me.

    But if I’m the Flames, I’ve got a problem. Since I’ve traded away a 1D for 3ov, I’ve created a hole that can’t be filled at either C or D. If I get a C in the draft, I’m missing a 1D. And if I get Ekblad, I’m missing a 1/2C. In other words – by trading away Monahan and Giordano for Yak and 3ov, I’ve created a massive hole at either C or D. Which is exactly where the Oilers find themselves now.

    And which is also exactly why the Oilers would want to make this trade, but the Flames never would or should.

    The flipside is if you consider 3ov for Monahan the loser and Yak for Giordano the winner. This one’s a loser no matter how you slice it. Even if Yak lives up to his potential and becomes a 40 goal scorer – what then? Giordano’s a Top 10 D in the league (by eye, and by TOI, ppg, CF% Rel …). Which is more valuable to a team? I’d still take the 1D, easily. More important role, harder to develop, harder to trade for.

    Which brings me back to the original point: trading 3ov + Yak for Giordano + Monahan. Hell, yeah, the *Oilers* should make that trade. Immediately fills the two biggest gaps in the roster, and does so for anywhere from three to five years at least.

    And that’s exactly why there is zero chance in hell the Flames would make that deal.

    (Unless they hire Tambellini, then all bets are off)

  78. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    I like your ideas.

    The caveat I add is do not trade Marincin who I believe will end up as a fine top two defender.

    Knowing oilers he could be gone this summer.

  79. Bag of Pucks says:

    Gmoney. CAL is starting their rebuild. Project the trade 3 years into the future. Thet have their 1c (Reinhardt, draisatl, Bennet) and their 1rw (yak). The oilers have Monahan (2c or poor man’s 1c) and Giordano firmly on the back 9. If you’re looking longterm ( which a rebuild implies) the trade is a good one for the flames.

    In the short term? No.

  80. Bag of Pucks says:

    Not sure what a Foreur is BTW, but I’m really starting to hate them nonetheless.

  81. LMHF#1 says:

    This Oil Kings team does a lot of strange things for such a good team.

    - Way too many pucks up the middle for turnovers

    - Don’t adjust their system when the middle of the ice is shut down.

    - Take way too many shots that have little to no chance of getting on net.

  82. VanOil says:

    The Skating distance calculations for tonight’s Oil Kings game done by http://www.powerscouthockey.com/

    Access to all there stats would be great.

    http://www.lfpress.com/2014/05/21/powerscout-hockey-at-memorial-cup-breaking-down-numbers-for-sportsnet

  83. Cameron says:

    G Money,

    Monahan’s profile as a skill pivot with size, character, work ethic, and intelligence, to go along with his performance (especially in the first quarter when he was absolutely on fire), means that barring something insane from Pittsburgh involving Malkin, he isn’t going to be traded. He is the prototype player you can build around, and he’s coming off a 22 goal season as an 18 year old. He (along with Brodie and the pint-sized wunderkind Gaudreau) are all but untouchable.

    Giordano just came off a career season for the team that gave him a shot after he went undrafted. He’s the team captain. He’s on an insanely reasonable contract. He and TJ Brodie formed not just a legit 1st defence pairing, but by all the Corgis in the castle, they were an elite pairing that faced the toughest of the toughs and pushed back the river. I’m not saying Calgary would classify him as untouchable (I actually think there is a reasonable chance they flip for him), but they would want a Big package of stuff just for him alone. Given everything I just said, he’s worth it.

    I also think you are missing the most obvious dynamic. Calgary is not going to do a ‘fair’ trade with Edmonton. As is stands, the Flames have a group of players who are Corsi killers; Brodie, Backlund, and Giordano, a big Finnish goalie just entering his prime he showed he can be league average, a young pivot with size coming off a 20 goal rookie year at 18, a handful of exciting offensive prospects (Baertschi, Gaudreau, Granlund, Poirier, Klimchuk), and 5 picks in the first 3 rounds of the upcoming draft. There is exactly zero pressure on Burke to make any kind of deal. If anything it’s ‘anti-pressure’, so if he is going to make a deal with Edmonton it would only be if the offer was so stupid that he just couldn’t pass it up.

    Personally, I’d deal the #4 overall to Edm for Yak – but I doubt that Flames brass ever would.

  84. Younger Oil says:

    Good on the Oil Kings. Nice to have something to cheer for in May in Edmonton.

  85. commonfan14 says:

    Cameron: There is exactly zero pressure on Burke to make any kind of deal. If anything it’s ‘anti-pressure’

    Won’t stop him from signing Ryan Miller.

  86. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Gmoney. CAL is starting their rebuild. Project the trade 3 years into the future. Thet have their 1c (Reinhardt, draisatl, Bennet) and their 1rw (yak). The oilers have Monahan (2c or poor man’s 1c) and Giordano firmly on the back 9. If you’re looking longterm ( which a rebuild implies) the trade is a good one for the flames.

    In the short term? No.

    The thing is, the Flames have
    - a legit 1D
    - a solid young defender (Brodie)
    - a solid 2C (Monahan)
    - a pick this year at 4ov that *should* turn into another good 2C
    - a few other young players that could be good (Gaudreau, Backlund)

    Although their ceiling is nowhere near the Oilers, are you not at least a little worried that they may have caught up with the Oilers on their rebuild? I am.

    As Oiler fans, we better hope that RNH and Yak start playing like legit 1ov’s sometime soon, plus we get a good player 2C or 1D at 3ov, plus hope that Klefbom and Nurse both turn into legit NHL defenders. Otherwise it almost doesn’t matter what MacT does this summer, it’s moving deck chairs on the Titanic.

    Cameron: I also think you are missing the most obvious dynamic. Calgary is not going to do a ‘fair’ trade with Edmonton.

    Cameron, I’m not sure why you’re posting that w.r.t. to me – the whole point of my posts was that Calgary would *never* trade Gio+SM for Yak+3ov. Even if it was fair, they wouldn’t do it as you say, but in fact I think it’s actually a bad trade for the Flames.

    That said, while I have a modest worry that the Flames may have a pretty good rebuild going – I’m also not nearly as sold on most of the Flames young players as you are.

    I think Monahan will be solid, but I doubt if he’s going to be an elite C. His numbers are bloated by an inflated sh%, and even with that unsustainable rate, his actual rookie scoring at .45ppg puts him well behind Hall (.65), Eberle (.62), RNH (.84), Yak (.65) and even Gagner (.62) as rookies — all except Eberle playing at 18 …. I expect he’s going to be a solid 2C – in the range of what both the Oilers and the Flames should expect to get this draft, BTW.

    But we’ve heard the “young players with potential” story before (both with the Flames and the Oilers). A good rookie season is a decent start, but doesn’t guarantee success either.

  87. Ribs says:

    Got thinking about Bruce’s “Missing Link” postings and wondered what last year’s team age makeup looked like. This is minus goalies…

    Ages
    36-39 : 72GP – 4.8%
    33-35 : 98GP – 6.6%
    30-32 : 252GP – 16.7%
    27-29 : 148GP – 10%
    24-26 : 443GP – 29.8%
    21-33 : 312GP – 21%
    18-20 : 160GP – 10.8%

    Check out Bruce’s old posts for some comparisons…
    http://oildroppings.blogspot.ca/2009/04/missing-link.html

    The sweet spot seems to be having as many 27-32 core players as possible. If I’m MacTavish, I look to get guys withing this age group or on the cusp of it. Try to disregard the rest as much as possible. They must be able to contribute, of course.

    Oilers 27-32 players included…

    Smid
    Fraser
    Belov
    Hamilton
    Brown
    Pinizotto
    Jones
    Potter
    Hemsky
    Grebeshkov
    Gordon
    Eager
    N.Schultz
    Hendricks

    Core players among them….Gordon. (Seeya Hemmer! Nice knowin’ ya, Smid!)

    Take a look at the remaining playoff teams rosters and you’ll see that this appears to be important. Having useful players in this age group seems to be a pretty common trait.

    So I dunno, take LT’s list and narrow down your target players. Anything there? How important is winning next season, for really? How bold are you prepared to be this summer?

  88. kdunbar says:

    denny33,

    But I do think signing some ufa’s will force some young guys down to the minors and help overall development. This team is short on actual NHL players. I tinnitus blog just shows where the holes are and we have fewer this coming year than last year. See Peron goalies and Hendricks.

    I count horcoff and Gordon as filling the same spot.

  89. Woodguy says:

    Tyler makes a more detailed case for Stralman: http://www.mc79hockey.com/2014/05/anton-stralman-secret-star/

  90. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    I like your ideas.

    The caveat I add is do not trade Marincin who I believe will end up as a fine top two defender.

    Knowing oilers he could be gone this summer.

    I don’t want to trade anyone other than Gagner.

    I think this year’s UFA crop will help in two ways:

    1) There are excellent candidates for the holes on the Oilers

    2) Grabbo, Kulimen and Stralman would be key parts and none of them are “UFA Studs” and the probability of overpaying to get them is lower.

    That makes the roster:

    Hall-RNH-Eberle

    Perron – Grabbo-Yak

    Lander-Arco-X

    Kulimen-Gordon-Hendrick

    Marincin-Stralman

    Ference-Petry

    Klefbom-Shultz

    I’d still like a better LHD to push everyone down a slot.

    Maybe you can trade Gagner for a LHD with one year left on his deal?

    Who needs offence and could make a trade like that?

  91. Lowetide says:

    Florida: Kulikov.

  92. Woodguy says:

    Hmmmmm,

    NJD needs help scoring and Andy Greene is going into his last year of his contract.

    Greene led NJD is TOI in all 3 disciplines last year, played the toughs and had the best RelCor too.

    Another 5’10″ wonder D.

    I doubt Lou sells him for just Gagner, but NJD is deep in D with Gelinas and Larsson on the rise.

    I wonder what it would take to get Greene or if he’s even available?

  93. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Florida: Kulikov.

    Putting another kid in over his head isn’t my answer.

    I know you and Rom love him and I think he’s pretty good too, but I don’t think he’s better than what Marincin has shown us.

    Marincin has played and been successful against the toughest of the WC, Kulikov was 2LD behind Campbell.

    I want someone like Greene.

    Someone to come in and own 1LD for a year or two on merit until you are comfortable with elevating Marincin or Klef, whoever rises to the top first.

  94. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Putting another kid in over his head isn’t my answer.

    I know you and Rom love him and I think he’s pretty good too, but I don’t think he’s better than what Marincin has shown us.

    Marincin has played and been successful against the toughest of the WC, Kulikov was 2LD behind Campbell.

    I want someone like Greene.

    Someone to come in and own 1LD for a year or two on merit until you are comfortable with elevating Marincin or Klef, whoever rises to the top first.

    So, two Marincin’s are a bad thing? Kulikov is solid and young enough to grow with the group. I can’t see any downside (beyond losing the kid to Russia).

  95. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: So, two Marincin’s are a bad thing? Kulikov is solid and young enough to grow with the group. I can’t see any downside (beyond losing the kid to Russia).

    Yes, two Marincin’s is a bad thing in this very specific case, and I’m not sold that he’s as good as Marincin.

    If Ference wasn’t signed for 3 more years with a NMC I’d be more for it, but the left side is very crowded and you aren’t solving anything by adding to the crowd.

    I’m all for roster competition but adding another young LHD to Marincin, Klefbom, Ference, Nurse, isn’t what they need today.

    The Oilers need a 1LD who’s been one and not put another young player in over his head.

    He needs to have hair on his back and when he’s out against Thorton or Kopitar my nutsack doesn’t shrivel a little in fear.

    Oilers have lots of LHD they can put in over their heads, they don’t need another.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Let me put it this way:

    “growing with the group” is something the Oilers already have.

    “growing with the group” on the Oilers Dcorps has meant trying to learn the NHL game while being slotted in above your NHL ability.

    Its time for the Oilers players to “grow with the group” while being slotted in where their ability dictates.

    Marincin, Klefbom and Nurse growing with the group while not having to have the most ice time against Thorton or Kopitar or Toews is the goal here.

    The Ference contract puts a real wrench into the works because he can’t handle it either and his ability slot (3LD, 2LD in a pinch) should be for the young guys.

    Something like:

    Greene
    Marincin
    Klef

    Is miles and miles and miles ahead of:

    Kulikov
    Marincin
    Ference

  97. gd says:

    Woodguy,

    WG,

    I am completely with you on the Stralman, Grabbo, Kulemin signings as being doable with minor overpays. All three have played for Eakins and Acton and Howsom had Stralman in Columbus. These are the type of guys that would show the org is going in the right direction, which is why I’m scared they are not even thinking about it.

    My feeling is those three signings would allow them to stay at 3, pick the best guy on their list, and be patient with him. I think they could then use Perron, Gagner and any of their D to get the max D man possible (Kulikov or better). These moves won’t get them to the playoffs, but at least get them to around 20th and moving in the right direction.

  98. Woodguy says:

    gd,

    I think the 1LD should be a 1 to 2 years solution and have a track record of already playing in that slot.

    Costs less and in that time frame one of Marincin or Klefbom might progress and be up to the task.

    If they aren’t, then you go short term again, or trade one in a package for someone who is a real LHD.

    I don’t make that trade today because multiple years of Marincin and Klefbom as competent 1/2 LHD at cheap prices is too valuable to give up this early in their careers.

    The only cavet is if the Oilers move one of them now for a LHD, it better be a proven one signed for term at a reasonable price. Rare.

  99. VanOil says:

    Woodguy:

    Marincin has played and been successful against the toughest of the WC, Kulikov was 2LD behind Campbell.

    You are underplaying Kulikov’s 313 games of NHL experience, physical development and competent mentor-ship versus Marincin. He also finished the year, after Gilberts injury, playing on the top pairing with Campbell.

    Kulikov + Stralman would be a good mix of potential and experience to add to the Oilers.

  100. Woodguy says:

    VanOil: You are underplaying Kulikov’s 313 games of NHL experience, physical development and competent mentor-ship versus Marincin. He also finished the year, after Gilberts injury, playing on the top pairing with Campbell.

    Kulikov + Stralman would be a good mix of potential and experience to add to the Oilers.

    That may be true, but the crux of my argument is “don’t give up assets for something you already possess”

    Oilers already have good young LHD so giving up assets to acquire him is bad asset management when there are glaring holes that need to be addressed.

    If you can get Kulikov for Gagner + not much then I’m all for it, that’s good asset management in the sense that you are maximizing the return on a depreciated asset.

    You can then use one of the young LHD to address a weakness.

    I am not in favour of trading more than that for something the Oilers already have in abundance.

    Also,

    Kulikov played 138min with Campbell in 12/13 and 263min in 13/14.

    He did well with him this year and *may* be ready for a greater role, but I don’t want to *hope* my new hire is ready for 1LD, I want to *know*

  101. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Yes, two Marincin’s is a bad thing in this very specific case, and I’m not sold that he’s as good as Marincin.

    If Ference wasn’t signed for 3 more years with a NMC I’d be more for it, but the left side is very crowded and you aren’t solving anything by adding to the crowd.

    I’m all for roster competition but adding another young LHD to Marincin, Klefbom, Ference, Nurse, isn’t what they need today.

    The Oilers need a 1LD who’s been one and not put another young player in over his head.

    He needs to have hair on his back and when he’s out against Thorton or Kopitar my nutsack doesn’t shrivel a little in fear.

    Oilers have lots of LHD they can put in over their heads, they don’t need another.

    I think you’re projecting Marincin beyond what we know. He’s a prospect, and they don’t develop in a straight line.

  102. gd says:

    Woodguy,

    I think the sure thing guy you talk about just isn’t available. Is Martin, Greene or Coburn any more of a sure thing than Kulikov? They are not getting a 9 or a 10. Their best hope is getting a 7 who turns out to be an 8. That’s why I like the idea of targeting the Florida/Islanders. Teams that have maybe done as bad a job of putting their guys in positions to fail, similarly to the Oilers.

  103. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On Kulikov….

    Obviously, if you can get rid of Ference somehow it looks even better.

    Tallon is mouthing about adding veteran D (even though he has Campbell and could easily re-sign Gilbert). Maybe he’ll like the look of Ference.

    I think the main argument for Kulikov from a roster construction POV (if we have all agreed that the player is worthwhile), is that he’s at the right age for the development hiccups to start evening out. And, I’d be happy to have him push Marincin down to 2LD and keep Klef in the AHL for another season (or most of one)

    I think you still need to pair him with a strong 1RD. I don’t think he can carry the load alone. Stralman or Phaneuf or Gilbert would all work over there IMO.

    I like Greene too… I think with Lou it really depends on what he does with Fayne.

  104. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I think you’re projecting Marincin beyond what we know. He’s a prospect, and they don’t develop in a straight line.

    That may be true, but we my argument is you don’t know that Kulikov can handle 1LD anymore than Marincin, so giving up an asset you like doesn’t putt you ahead.

  105. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: That may be true, but we my argument is you don’t know that Kulikov can handle 1LD anymore than Marincin, so giving up an asset you like doesn’t putt you ahead.

    I’m talking Gagner as the major part of the exchange, so it’s beneficial in that way too. For me, the fact we don’t know Marincin can handle the 1LD job is reason to bring in Kulikov. Injuries, slumps, water bottles thrown, the 7 men who handle D for Edmonton (and it’ll be more like 10) fulltime will all be over their head many times.

  106. godot10 says:

    Kulikov turned down $5 million per season on a long term deal to play in Florida and party on South Beach from Tallon.

    So Kulikov will cost the Oilers more than $5 million per season, and they can’t pay Petry any less than Kulikov.

  107. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    Kulikov turned down $5 million per season on a long term deal to play in Florida and party on South Beach from Tallon.

    So Kulikov will cost the Oilers more than $5 million per season, and they can’t pay Petry any less than Kulikov.

    I hadn’t read that, do you have a link?

  108. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10:
    Kulikov turned down $5 million per season on a long term deal to play in Florida and party on South Beach from Tallon.

    So Kulikov will cost the Oilers more than $5 million per season, and they can’t pay Petry any less than Kulikov.

    hmmm.

    I missed this when I did my write up:

    http://www.ottawasun.com/2014/03/22/gms-face-chopping-block

    that’s March 22nd. At the year end press conference (April 12th) Tallon was pretty damn upset with Kulikov

    http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2014-04-13/sports/sfl-panthers-gm-tallons-endofyear-press-conference-20140413_1_gm-tallon-bjugstad-horachek/4

    has been all year as I showed in my post:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/04/bossa-antigua-dmitry-kulikov/

    at any rate, that’s a lot of money for the player. but, you have to wonder (given the acrimonious relationship between the two parties) if this leak isn’t a smear of some sort, or if Kulikov wants more money to play for a team that doesn’t appreciate him or something.

  109. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: …putt you ahead.

    Oilers aren’t close enough for the putter yet. Maybe a wedge? (Or a driver.)

  110. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: hmmm.

    at any rate, that’s a lot of money for the player. but, you have to wonder (given the acrimonious relationship between the two parties) if this leak isn’t a smear of some sort, or if Kulikov wants more money to play for a team that doesn’t appreciate him or something.

    Kulikov is utilizing the power of the CBA to engineer a trade to a team who he wants to play for, just like Tobias Reider did to the Oilers, or alternatively to be paid for his discontent. (I doubt Edmonton is where he wants to go. Probably the New York Area where there are three teams, and a large Russian expatriate community, and less travel).

    Florida controls Kulikov for two more years. Kulikov makes an “extreme” salary demand, or just opts for arbitration. Once Tallon knows that Kulikov is intent on going the arbitration route for the next two years to UFA status, Kulikov forces his hand, and like with Tambellini and Reider, Kulikov can then pretty much force a trade to the team he wants to go to.

    Tallon can only get full value for Kulikov trading him to where he wants to go.

  111. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: Kulikov is utilizing the power of the CBA to engineer a trade to a team who he wants to play for, just like Tobias Reider did to the Oilers, or alternatively to be paid for his discontent.(I doubt Edmonton is where he wants to go.Probably the New York Area where there are three teams, and a large Russian expatriate community, and less travel).

    Florida controls Kulikov for two more years.Kulikov makes an “extreme” salary demand, or just opts for arbitration.Once Tallon knows that Kulikov is intent on going the arbitration route for the next two years to UFA status, Kulikov forces his hand, and like with Tambellini and Reider, Kulikov can then pretty much force a trade to the team he wants to go to.

    Tallon can only get full value for Kulikov trading him to where he wants to go.

    what’s the report on Reider anyway. I never read anything suggesting this from the MSM, just from speculating blog posts.

    It seems possible that Tallon engineered this by trying to get out from Kulkov as early as Oct.

  112. Cameron says:

    G Money,

    My bad, I was replying to bag of pucks, and got confused as to who was saying what.

    That said, I don’t disagree with much of what you said. In particular there is a group of ‘realists’ at FN (which I would put myself in) who are being exceedingly cautious about expectations for Monahan precisely because his sh% was so high (especially early on).

    I would say that the Flames have in fact caught the Oilers in terms of where the rebuild is. I say this because;

    A. Feaster actually started the rebuild when he was hired and then promptly jettisoned Robyn Regehr (core player) for cap space and prospects. Rather than start the clock on the rebuild with Iggy’s departure (as Flames media/fans do), it is more sensible to start it when Feaster began reworking the team’s core.

    B. Unlike the Oilers, the Flames have several key pieces already in place; 1D (GIo), 2D (Brodie), G (Ramo), vets who can do heavy lifting/shelter the kids (Stajan, Hudler, Glen X, etc.), and a young possession driving C in Backlund who drives the bus against the toughs.

    C. Coaching. Hartley has his faults (he dresses goons WAY TOO MUCH on the 4th line), but he has also built a cohesive team atmosphere and style of play. To a man the Flames know what they are and how they have to play to win games. I don’t have any insight to the Oilers dressing room psyche, but the Flames are all pulling in the same direction for the first time since maybe D.Sutter was coach.

    D. The key positions for all teams are; C, D, and G. As it stands the Flames lack a #1C, but otherwise have average or better C’s at 2-3 and 4. They aree short a 2nd pairing D-man, but otherwise have a strong top pairing, and Ramo is just entering his prime and flashed average or better ability. This gives the team a ‘bakbone’ they can flesh out with the incoming kids. Contrast that to the Oilers where the gaps on D are so big, and the question marks in goal so serious, that all the talent up fron in the world isn’t going to make a difference.

  113. nycoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I like the thought of Kulikov, but personally I still wonder why there isn’t more interest in looking to New Jersey for help? With the emergence of Merrill, Gelinas, Fayne, etc., why not target Larsson? He is RHD, an area of bigger need for the current blue line than LHD. He was injured this year and so sent down to the AHL. He still has all the tools that had him in the conversation with RNH for first overall three years ago.

    Like it was with the case with Viktor Hedman, who did not look very good at all his first three years in the show, I think Larsson is close to turning the corner. If the rest of the NHL has devalued Yakupov so much, then Larsson’s value is surely at a nadir. New Jersey fell just shy of a playoff spot, led in scoring by old man Jagr. They could use someone like Gagner for their 2nd line, and another D prospect to replace Larsson. Pick one from the bottom end of the prospect pool (Gernat, Musil?), add Gagner, and a mid round pick or something? Would that be enough without touching the core or the #3 overall? Wouldn’t a Klefbom-Larsson future 2nd pair be fun? And then imagine Ekblad falls to us. Nurse-Ekblad, Klefbom-Larsson, Marincin-Schultz future blue would look pretty slick. Petry might be around or be moved on for some help up front at that point.

  114. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    nycoil,

    Larsson would be interesting.

    The problem here is trying to find a guy that is NHL NOW. Kulikov is that guy now. He may get better, but we have a really good read on who he is. The guys who are 25-28 all are too.

    The other thing is we now Tallon’s been shopping kulikov since Oct. I don’t know about Larrson and Lou… I also don’t trust any trade with Lou.

  115. nycoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Am on board with Kulikov but that contract situation makes it a bit murky. I also understand the concern with trading with Lou. Lou has seemed fallible lately with his moves, but he did wriggle off the hook on the Kovy penalty and did get Schneider for Bo Horvat so maybe he should still be feared. I just saw Larsson as a victim to the develop development of other D in Jersey and why not be the beneficiary of it if we can

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