2014 61+ AND THE COMBINE

I wouldn’t do this in a regular draft season, but the first two hours on Saturday are going to be crickets. So, in the interests of us having something to talk about, and to at least get some familiarity with future Oilers, here’s a 61+ list. There are names you may not have heard of before—my paper boy is #76 and my Mom’s old boyfriend is #90—let’s see action!

  • #61: L Juho Lammikko—Power winger with some skill. Impressive U18′s.
  • #62: L Kris Schmidli: Extra Skater star, 3.2/60 at evens. Some Swiss kid in Kelowna with good math skills.
  • #63: D Dominik Masin—Russian blue effective, mobile and has size.
  • #64: R Hunter Smith—Draft re-entry is a monster.
  • #65: D Blake Siebenaler—A very nice resume. Puck mover, smooth, has ability.
  • #66: L Francis Perron—Playmaking winger.
  • #67: G Ilya Sorokin—Not at all famous, but he stops pucks in the Hinterland.
  • #68: L Dylan Sadowy—Unusual to find a good scorer this deep, but here he is. 27 goals.
  • #69: G Mason McDonald—I’m somewhat skeptical, but people like him fine.
  • #70: D Aaron Irving—I think he’s underrated by most. Two-way defenseman, saw him good.
  • #71: D Andreas Englund—Swedish defender, tall strong and lean. Could go large, could go Ker-Plunk.
  • #72: L Michael Bunting: Impressive speed and skill. Probably a checker.
  • #73: C Luke Philp—Skill center can play a complementary role.
  • #74: D Ben Thomas—Good stickhandler, has some chaos.
  • #75: C Radel Fazleev—Trending player, big performance at the U18′s.
  • #76: L Edgars Kulda—He had a nice season.
  • #77: D William Lagesson—Two-way defender, interesting bio.
  • #78: D Gavin Bayreuther—A college man, he’s 20 and has some nice boxcars.
  • #79: L Warren Foegele—Complete skills, came  out of nowhere. Will he return there?
  • #80: D Riley Stadel—Crazy good puck handling defender. A draft sleeper.
  • #81: C Colby Cave—Undersized checker. Lots of those! He has some nice things.
  • #82: C Reid Gardner—Two-way center, improving.
  • #83: C Clark Bishop—Hard working C who has terrific speed.
  • #84: D Luc Snuggerud—Puck moving defender.
  • #85: R Alexis Pepin—Enormous two-way winger with some skill. Bet the Oilers are on him.
  • #86: G Ville Husso—Interesting numbers, I’m not sure about the story behind them.
  • #87: D Brandon Montour—Another guy Luedeke recommended. Might be the anti-Hesketh.
  • #88: R Alex Schoenborn—Size and skill, just needs to put it together. A nice draft and follow.
  • #89: C Reid Duke—I’d like to see him on a hockey team.
  • #90: L Blake Clark—Big power forward with some skill.
  • #91: G Zachary Nagelvoort: College goalie with good to very good numbers.
  • #92: C Shane Gersich—Speedy two-way player, that damn Luedeke talked me into it.
  • #93: D Jake Walman—Great skater, converted forward, long shot.
  • #94: R Tyler Bird—Huge 17-year old who played high school last season and is on his way to Brown.
  • #95: C Lukas Wallmark—I refuse to give up. Skilled forward.
  • #96: D Aaron Haydon—Huge defenseman with some ability.
  • #97: D Alexis Vanier—Weird skill set. Massive guy. Skilled.
  • #98: D Sebastian Aho—Undersized puck moving defender with some promise.
  • #99: D Ryan Collins—Giant defensive defenseman.
  • #100: D Ryan Mantha—Huge defender who can handle the puck. Good bloodlines.
  • #101: C Mike Amadio—Defensive center.
  • #102: R Austin Poganski—Big throwback winger on his way to UND.
  • #103: C Kevin Leblanc—Physical 2-way player.
  • #104: D Emil Johansson—Puck moving defender.
  • #105: L Shane Eiserman—Big two-way winger, a little challenged on skill.
  • #106: R Matt Iacopelli—Dominated USHL at 19. On his way to Western Michigan, Oiler heartland.
  • #107: R Oscar Lindblom—Power forward, has skill.
  • #108: D Miles Gendron—Crazy good skater, chaos now, could be something later.
  • #109: L Christian Dvorak—Two-way forward, didn’t score much.
  • #110: R Noah Rod—Power winger with a cool name.
  • #111: D Nelson Nogier—Big, mobile stay at home defender.
  • #112: L Darby Llewellyn—Two-way winger with skill and smarts.
  • #113: D Rinat Valiev—Russian defender in the west. Puck mover, physical. Interesting.
  • #114: L Ryan Foss—Power forward frame, scored just okay.
  • #115: R Keegan Iverson—A big winger with some skill. Physical player.
  • #116: R Mitchel Slattery—Speedy winger with skill. Interesting prospect.
  • #117: R Jaden Lindo—Impressive defensive forward, has some skill.
  • #118: G Chase Perry—Big American goalie with decent boxcars.
  • #119: C Beau Starrett—Tall forward with skill, varying scouting reports on him.
  • #120: L Matthew Mistele—Impressive player a year ago, went thud. Risk reward.
  • #121: L Julien Pelletier—Skill forward, good hands. Looks tweener, you never know.
  • #122: D Brett Lernout—Big, tough, intimidating defender.
  • #123: G Vitek Vanecek—Good numbers, dominant at U-18s.
  • #124: L Julian Nantel—Two-way forward with average size.
  • #125: D Adam Ollas Mattsson—Huge defender with a little offense.
  • #126: G Brandon Halvorson—Tall, thin goalie whose boxcars are okay.
  • #127: R Karson Kuhlman—Two-way agitating winger with skill.
  • #128: D Olivier Leblanc—Puck mover with good boxcars, he’s rail thin.
  • #129: G Kaapo Kahkonen—Big Finn had a good season. Huge.
  • #130: C Dominic Turgeon—Pierre’s boy. Skilled but not that skilled.
  • #131: C Steve Spinner—Pure offense, no defense. Fast and skilled.
  • #132: D Brandon Hickey—Stay at home D with size, long term potential.
  • #133: G Edwin Minney—Big American goalie headed to Michigan State.
  • #134: D Josh Wesley—Glenn’s boy, defensive defenseman.
  • #135: G Jonas Johansson—Huge Swedish goalie.
  • #137: G Brent Moran—Long shot goalie.
  • #138: G Blake Weyrick—American goalie on his way to college. I don’t see it.

There are names on this list that won’t be taken—this is a weird draft, the 100+ invites to the combine don’t resemble the top 100 on several lists, and some of the players are well off the pace. The  Oilers historically grab several from the combine list so this group may contain a few future Oilers. So, what I’ve done here is link the bio of any fringe combine invite so you’ll know these players have a better than average chance of being Oilers. Here’s the math on that since 2008, and hang around to read what happens when they go walkabout in the top 100 overall.

MACGREGOR ERA COMBINE LIST AND OILERS PICKS

2008 Oilers draft

  • Jordan Eberle selected #22 overall, ranked #29 (attended combine)
  • Johan Motin selected #103 overall, unranked (attended combine)
  • Phil Cornet selected #133 overall
  • Teemu Hartikainen selected #163 overall
  • Jordan Bendfeld selected #193 overall

2009 Oilers draft

  • Magnus Paajarvi selected #10 overall, ranked #10 (attended combine)
  • Anton Lander selected #40 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Troy Hesketh selected #71 overall
  • Cameron Abney selected #82 overall
  • Kyle Bigos selected #99 overall
  • Toni Rajala selected #101 overall, ranked #50 (attended combine)
  • Olivier Roy selected #133 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)

2010 Oilers draft

  • Taylor Hall selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Pitlick selected #31, ranked #25 (attended combine)
  • Martin Marincin selected #56, ranked #71 (attended combine)
  • Curtis Hamilton selected #48, ranked 57 (attended combine)
  • Ryan Martindale selected #61, ranked 58 (attended combine)
  • Jeremie Blain selected #91
  • Tyler Bunz selected #121, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Brandon Davidson selected #162, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Drew Czerwonka selected #166
  • Kristians Pelss selected #181
  • Kellen Jones selected #202

2011 Oilers draft

  • Ryan Nugent Hopkins selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Oscar Klefbom selected #19, ranked #21 (attended combine)
  • David Musil selected #31, ranked #41 (attended combine)
  • Samu Perhonen selected #62, ranked #51 (attended combine)
  • Travis Ewanyk selected #74, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Dillon Simpson selected #92
  • Tobias Rieder selected #114, unranked (attended combine)
  • Martin Gernat selected #122
  • Frans Tuohimaa selected #182

2012 Oilers draft

  • Nail Yakupov selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Mitchell Moroz selected #32, ranked #56 (attended combine)
  • Jujhar Khaira selected #63, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Daniil Zharkov selected #91, ranked #47 (attended combine)
  • Erik Gustafsson selected #93
  • Joey Laleggia selected #123
  • John McCarron selected #153

2013 Oilers draft

  • Darnell Nurse selected #7, ranked #9 (attended combine)
  • Marco Roy selected #56, ranked #59 (attended combine)
  • Bogdan Yakimov selected #83 not ranked (attended combine)
  • Anton Slepyshev, selected #88 not ranked
  • Jackson Houck, selected #94 not ranked (attended combine)
  • Kyle Platzer, selected #96 not ranked
  • Aidan Muir, selected #113 not ranked
  • Evan Campbell, selected #128 not ranked
  • Ben Betker, selected #158 not ranked
  • Greg Chase, selected #188 not ranked
  • Since 2008, when making a selection inside the top 100 players, Edmonton has selected a player who was not at the combine 8 times: Troy Hesketh, Cameron Abney, Kyle Bigos, Jeremie Blain, Dillon Simpson, Erik Gustafsson, Anton Slepyshev, Kyle Platzer.  Slepyshev was not able to make the trip.
  • In looking at that list, there are a lot of mistakes in there, many of them inside the top 100. Hesketh, Cameron, Bigos, Blain, and maybe more to come. Sometimes walkabout is alot about screwing the pooch. Dillon Simpson is the one walkabout pick who looks like a player.
  • This season, there’s a tremendous amount of disagreement over specific players. Edmonton might get some really good players. This isn’t a “top 40″ draft, where everyone is buying the same record. It’s a “jazz” draft, with 100 coffee houses playing a slightly different style. Interesting week ahead.
  • Since 2008, when making a selection inside the top 100 players, Edmonton has selected a player who was at the combine 21 times.
  • Since 2008, Edmonton has chosen a combine invite after selection #100 a total of five times.

This year’s list is here.

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91 Responses to "2014 61+ AND THE COMBINE"

  1. Rondo says:

    No Alex Peters?

    Peters has to be considered one of the top shutdown defensive prospects available for this draft. At 6’4, 200lbs, and with good mobility, he’s very difficult to get around off the rush. He keeps attacking forwards in front of him and picks his spots well when using a stick or body check. Peters is also already very strong in the corners and comes away with the puck in the vast majority of his loose puck battles. As he matures, I look for him to become even more of a menacing presence in front of the net, utilizing his size just a bit more than he currently does. The best thing about Peters is that he’s very capable at handling the puck and does a great job with getting the puck out of his zone by pass or rush. As he gains confidence, I look for him to try to jump up in the rush a bit more and to try pushing those rushes deeper into the offensive zone. While he does a great job of skating the puck out of trouble, he’s quick to dish it off once outside of his blueline. The offensive numbers aren’t necessarily there, but I can tell you that he has more offensive potential than those numbers would indicate. Bottom line is that Peters looks like a guy who could play 10+ years in the NHL in some capacity, but who also has the potential to impact the game on more than just a defensive level.

  2. Ben says:

    Thanks for this scouting report, Alex Peters’ mom. :)

  3. Ben says:

    Nice trade value padding by Dreger today btw, calling a bounce-back year for 89.

  4. nycoil says:

    Hell of an effort, sir. The coffee house analogy is very a pros pros. I don’t know how you did it, but it must have required a shot of espresso at every stop!

    Now put down the remote and back slowly away from the television with your hands up!

  5. Lowetide says:

    Rondo: He doesn’t bring a lick of offense. Not a lick.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    OFF-Topic

    I’ve been putting together my own ranking and trying to square some funky numbers for the CHL stats.

    Extraskater is a big improvement on McKeen’s because they strip the empty net goals from the data (McKeen’s was on the way to doing this and gave up once ES came along). I wrote about the problem of EN goals and IPP and variety of things here yesterday:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/empty-net-goals-ipp/

    At any rate, I noticed the ES numbers were a little funky even after striping EN points and on-ice numbers.

    So, I went through Draisaitl’s game sheets and found he only had 3 EN points (all goals).

    He’s got
    12-28-40 PP
    1-2-3 SH
    3-0-3 EN
    =
    16-30-46 total non-ES points.

    ALL: 38-67-105
    minus
    16-30-46
    =
    22-37-59

    extraskater has 22-34-56

    they shorted him 3 assists somehow.

  7. Dicky94 says:

    Boy there are a ton of small players in this draft. The two I like that could around the 91st pick are Dryden Hunt and Keegan Iverson. Both can play center and love to hit.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I wasn’t sure if it was just Draisaitl or all the data was corrupted in some way.

    So, I went through Reinhart in the same way.

    12-28-40 PP
    2-0-2 SH
    2-4-6 EN
    16-32-48 all non-es points.

    ALL
    36-69-105
    minus
    16-32-48
    =
    20-37-57

    but extraskater has:

    20-34-54

    again. short 3 ES assists.

    ———–
    I don’t know what the issue is here. but something is funky with the data.

    And, I have to assume it is across the board. I’m not going through anymore game sheets (triple checking 60 odd game sheets looking for EN goals isn’t the best way to spend an hour).

    SO… buyer beware.

  9. regwald says:

    LT, you don’t think that the Memorial Cup MVP will drag Kulda into the end of the 2nd round ? I like him to go later, but sometimes teams get excited about MVP trophies and recent memory. He did have a great finish to the season post-Januuary.

  10. Pouzar says:

    LT you on today?

  11. Woodguy says:

    Troy Hesketh selected #71 overall
    Cameron Abney selected #82 overall
    Kyle Bigos selected #99 overall

    That will never stop being gross.

    I blame Tambellni

    Stu, in the same range of pick, made these under MacT:

    Bogdan Yakimov selected #83 not ranked (attended combine)
    Anton Slepyshev, selected #88 not ranked
    Jackson Houck, selected #94 not ranked (attended combine)
    Kyle Platzer, selected #96 not ranked

    Now last year was much stronger than 2009 in terms of depth, but man the later rouind picks are just awful that year.

  12. Esa10 says:

    LT,

    I’m curious if you have any insight on Julius Bergman?

    He was ranked 48 by button and 19 by CSS Euro. However, he is unranked by ISS.

    This write up by AAron Vickers seems glowing:

    “Bergman has very impressive physical characteristics. He sees the ice well and makes a good outlet. He pushes the puck up the ice and skates well. He’s alert in all zones and uses his body and stick to disrupt opposing rushes. ”

    He has some offense and is known for his gritty play.

    This seems like a guy I would take a chance on in the 4th round.

    Also, LT, do you think MacT goes after Brodziak if he is available?

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 43m
    Wouldn’t be Draft week without Sam Gagner as trade bait. 2 more years at $5 mil (4.8 cap)…coming off brutal injury. Bounce back yr ahead.

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 50m
    NHL gm’s say Islanders forward Josh Bailey is a trade target. 9th overall in 2008. Under contract thru 2017-18. Would take a lot to get him.

    hmmm… back to back tweets

  14. Lowetide says:

    regwald:
    LT, you don’t think that the Memorial Cup MVP will drag Kulda into the end of the 2nd round ? I like him to go later, but sometimes teams get excited about MVP trophies and recent memory. He did have a great finish to the season post-Januuary.

    I think he may go higher, but that’s where he belongs.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    LT you on today?

    No. Back Friday

  16. Lowetide says:

    Esa10:
    LT,

    I’m curious if you have any insight on Julius Bergman?

    He was ranked 48 by button and 19 by CSS Euro. However, he is unranked by ISS.

    This write up by AAron Vickers seems glowing:

    “Bergman has very impressive physical characteristics. He sees the ice well and makes a good outlet. He pushes the puck up the ice and skates well. He’s alert in all zones and uses his body and stick to disrupt opposing rushes. ”

    He has some offense and is known for his gritty play.

    This seems like a guy I would take a chance on in the 4th round.

    Also, LT, do you think MacT goes after Brodziak if he is available?

    Puck moving defender, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being taken. ISS has a nice writeup on him, I passed putting him on this list but he would probably have made it at 150.

  17. Lowetide says:

    I don’t know about Brodziak, but I always liked him.

  18. Jordan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger43m
    Wouldn’t be Draft week without Sam Gagner as trade bait. 2 more years at $5 mil (4.8 cap)…coming off brutal injury. Bounce back yr ahead.

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger50m
    NHL gm’s say Islanders forward Josh Bailey is a trade target. 9th overall in 2008. Under contract thru 2017-18. Would take a lot to get him.

    hmmm… back to back tweets

    And just think – the Islanders are looking for a 1LW to play with Tavares. It’s too bad we don’t have a 1st overall with 2 yrs NHL exp. to dangle here.

    I’m not sure it’s a deal you win, but Bailey + 5th + 35th for Gagner & Yakupov makes enough sense for both teams to have legs. I don’t know if Snow bites b/c both are coming off sub-par years, and Yak’s established play levels are… unestablished. But I could see it happening anyways. Risk both ways on this one.

  19. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: No. Back Friday

    Bring in Dennis! Bring in Dennis! Bring in Dennis!

    No, I’m not Dennis’ mom!

  20. Lowetide says:

    Jordan: Bring in Dennis!Bring in Dennis!Bring in Dennis!

    No, I’m not Dennis’ mom!

    Dennis will be on, as will Corey Pronman.

  21. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Aren’t they also estimating time on ice? If we don’t know what these estimates are based upon it’s hard to judge how good an estimate they are. In any case, an estimate is an estimate not a fact.

  22. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Lowetide: I think he may go higher, but that’s where he belongs.

    Low 3rd/High 4th sounds right. Figure he’s gone when Edmonton starts Saturday. Here’s a link wanting Florida to pick him just before Edmonton’s at bat.

    http://www.litterboxcats.com/2014/6/18/5802870/2014-nhl-draft-prospects-florida-panthers-draft-preview

  23. Lowetide says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴: Low 3rd/High 4th sounds right. Figure he’s gone when Edmonton starts Saturday. Here’s a link wanting Florida to pick him just before Edmonton’s at bat.

    http://www.litterboxcats.com/2014/6/18/5802870/2014-nhl-draft-prospects-florida-panthers-draft-preview

    Oilers have enough ammo to trade up if necessary. I’ll have a ‘touch list’ post later in the week, basically naming players Edmonton might like in the range. He’s definitely on it.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Aren’t they also estimating time on ice?If we don’t know what these estimates are based upon it’s hard to judge how good an estimate they are.In any case, an estimate is an estimate not a fact.

    The TOI estimates and P/60 (how they work, etc) is explained here:

    http://blog.extraskater.com/2014/06/introducing-chl-statistics/

    the boxcars in various disciplines are not estimates. They are just the record of the game sheets.

    Something is off in their data mining. Or, I’ve missed something.

  25. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: No. Back Friday

    Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!

    Finally back to work and you pull this?!?!?!

  26. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: Dennis will be on, as will Corey Pronman.

    HUZZAH! HUZZAH! HUZZAH!

    Two of my favourite guests. You really know how to put a show together! Or should I be thanking LT. Eric?

  27. Lowetide says:

    Jordan: HUZZAH!HUZZAH!HUZZAH!

    Two of my favourite guests.You really know how to put a show together!Or should I be thanking LT. Eric?

    It’s a group effort. :-) Dustin Nielson will also appear live from the draft.

  28. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I am not sure how extra skater gathers their data but this *maybe* could be due to stats corrections. If they pull the data in right after the game and the league updates who received an assist from one player to another later on, that could result in what you’re seeing.

    I’ve seen that from stats I pull from the NHL, but 3 assists is an uncommon difference (however I also usually pull my stats a week later to make up the stats corrections). The CHL could be slow with updates though. That could be verified but it would be a pain in the ass because you’d need to calculate everyone’s values by hand to see if you make up those 3 assists elsewhere.

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki,

    but ES didn’t pull these stats in real time. They did it like last week, well after the season had ended. The CHL should have updated all their numbers by then.

    It is certainly plausible the source data is corrupt in some way and not ES’s collection.

  30. RexLibris says:

    “#84: D Luc Snuggerud—Puck moving defender.” – Worst name in the draft.

    “#91: G Zachary Nagelvoort: College goalie with good to very good numbers.” – wasn’t he from House Slytherin in Harry Potter?

    “#109: L Christian Dvorak—Two-way forward, didn’t score much.” – with a surname like that, it figures.

    “#131: C Steve Spinner—Pure offense, no defense. Fast and skilled.” – hope they draft this kid just so I can see the Eakins Death Stare aimed at MacGregor at the draft table.

    A jazz draft where teams are more likely to freelance it? Great, can’t wait to see the Canucks’ selections then. If all goes well they could publish them and aim for a Stephen Leacock award.

  31. Dicky94 says:

    Just wondering… I’m from Manitoba and would like to listen to LT on the radio. What station is it? Online? Time?

  32. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger43m
    Wouldn’t be Draft week without Sam Gagner as trade bait. 2 more years at $5 mil (4.8 cap)…coming off brutal injury. Bounce back yr ahead.

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger50m
    NHL gm’s say Islanders forward Josh Bailey is a trade target. 9th overall in 2008. Under contract thru 2017-18. Would take a lot to get him.

    hmmm… back to back tweets

    Yeah, this deal really does make sense. Maybe the Oilers have to sweeten with a low-level prospect or a 4th, but Dreger had said that Snow has been trying to move Bailey for awhile now and his offense just hasn’t arrived. They apparently want a winger.

    Meanwhile the Oilers have top six forward who is miscast as a C and would probably do well as a winger in roughly the same age range.

    Bailey is no screaming hell, but neither is Gagner. The Oilers trade offense for better positional fit with the roster and the Islanders could be getting instant offense without having to give up a draft pick or take on an onerous contract.

    Take all that and add in the fact that these two teams almost never player each other, thus little concern over the “this player will come back to bite me” fear and I really don’t see a problem here. Unless Snow or MacTavish are hearing better offers, but if they were I’d expect the deal to have happened already.

  33. Pouzar says:

    Dicky94: Just wondering… I’m from Manitoba and would like to listen to LT on the radio. What station is it? Online? Time?

    http://www.tsn1260.ca/ <– Site

    http://player.tsn1260.ca/ <– Player

    11AM to 1PM CST

  34. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Racki,

    but ES didn’t pull these stats in real time. They did it like last week, well after the season had ended. The CHL should have updated all their numbers by then.

    It is certainly plausible the source data is corrupt in some way and not ES’s collection.

    Ahh Ya if they pulled the data last week, then yes, something wacky going on with their numbers. My only guess is if they scrape the evens in a different way than perhaps a game sheet (or more) was “corrupt” (in the sense that their data mining wouldn’t work with it because the league did something odd). Who knows. Kinda stinks.

    Guess your best bet is to ask the website creator why things don’t jive. I’ve had to troubleshoot my own scraped in stats and it’s best for someone like him, who can probably see game by game where the error is.

  35. Dicky94 says:

    Pouzar,

    Right on! Thanks.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki: Ahh Ya if they pulled the data last week, then yes, something wacky going on with their numbers. My only guess is if they scrape the evens in a different way than perhaps a game sheet (or more)was “corrupt” (in the sense that their data mining wouldn’t work with it because the league did something odd). Who knows. Kinda stinks.

    Guess your best bet is to ask the website creator why things don’t jive. I’ve had to troubleshoot my own scraped in stats and it’s best for someone like him, who can probably see game by game where the error is.

    we’re trying to get to the bottom of it via twitter now.

    I’m guessing something is coded wrong. though this is not anywhere near my area of expertise.

    I just want the numbers to be accurate.

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris: Yeah, this deal really does make sense. Maybe the Oilers have to sweeten with a low-level prospect or a 4th, but Dreger had said that Snow has been trying to move Bailey for awhile now and his offense just hasn’t arrived. They apparently want a winger.

    Meanwhile the Oilers have top six forward who is miscast as a C and would probably do well as a winger in roughly the same age range.

    Bailey is no screaming hell, but neither is Gagner. The Oilers trade offense for better positional fit with the roster and the Islanders could be getting instant offense without having to give up a draft pick or take on an onerous contract.

    Take all that and add in the fact that these two teams almost never player each other, thus little concern over the “this player will come back to bite me” fear and I really don’t see a problem here. Unless Snow or MacTavish are hearing better offers, but if they were I’d expect the deal to have happened already.

    I think it might be a case of both Orgs. want to move on but can’t reconcile that they can only get what the other is offering yet.

  38. Matt.N says:

    Haven’t been around much. The Oilers kind of broke me this year. Saw this on another blog and thought it was interesting.

    The Sacremento Kings have crowd sourced their draft.

    http://grantland.com/features/sacramento-kings-2014-nba-draft-crowdsourcing/

  39. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think it might be a case of both Orgs. want to move on but can’t reconcile that they can only get what the other is offering yet.

    Oilers have probably factored in some bounceback for Gagner and may wait on it.

  40. VanOil says:

    The not at the combine list is important.

    So is the not at Katz’s house event. This year they changed it up and had Bennett come to dinner at MacT’s lair.

    Missing from the dinner list, Leon Draisaitl.

    According to Greger this is due to a Flight Snafu coming out of Florida. Prince Albert to Edmonton is a logistical night mare alone, Pensacola to Edmonton is just un-doable.

    They might meet the kid for a cheese steak latter this week but it is not quite the same romantic setting. We all know how hard MacT fell for Nurse on there first date. This feels like a ill omen for the German ending up an Oiler unless the brief speed dating chat at the combine was incredibly titillating.

    As for today’s draft list all I can offer is that it seems wise to draft one Finnish or Swedish goalie every year in the 3d to 5th rounds. Do this every year until you hit gold. If you get it right once every 10 years your franchise will be OK.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    No Alex Peters?

    Peters has to be considered one of the top shutdown defensive prospects available for this draft. At 6’4, 200lbs, and with good mobility, he’s very difficult to get around off the rush. He keeps attacking forwards in front of him and picks his spots well when using a stick or body check. Peters is also already very strong in the corners and comes away with the puck in the vast majority of his loose puck battles. As he matures, I look for him to become even more of a menacing presence in front of the net, utilizing his size just a bit more than he currently does. The best thing about Peters is that he’s very capable at handling the puck and does a great job with getting the puck out of his zone by pass or rush. As he gains confidence, I look for him to try to jump up in the rush a bit more and to try pushing those rushes deeper into the offensive zone. While he does a great job of skating the puck out of trouble, he’s quick to dish it off once outside of his blueline. The offensive numbers aren’t necessarily there, but I can tell you that he has more offensive potential than those numbers would indicate. Bottom line is that Peters looks like a guy who could play 10+ years in the NHL in some capacity, but who also has the potential to impact the game on more than just a defensive level.

    History shows us the Dmen who bring zero offence in the CHL just don’t make it in the NHL.

    1st round is always littered with “shut down Dmen” from the CHL who never make it.

    Here are two very good posts on it:

    http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2013/06/defense-defensemen-and-draft.html

    http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2013/06/defending-defenseman-post.html

    If you are going to bet on those guys, its best not to do it in the first two rounds.

  42. nycoil says:

    Bailey played LW this past year and produced little on the 2nd line while Frans Nielsen, his centre, had a solid year. Bailey hit a career high with 38pts, which is like Sam on a bad year. Bailey looks disinterested at times and the Isles’ fan base is fed up with him. Does this sound familiar?

    I don’t mind acquiring him if the cost is low, but he has a lot of years left on his contract, which isn’t cheap. I think he’s worth less than Gagner despite Gagner’s down year. This also would come at the expense of the likes of Kulemin or Winnik on the 3rd line wing instead so only if the Oilers fail to get a better player for cheaper in the FA market should they go this route.

    He is going to FAIL if he is made a 2C or 3C in Edmonton.

  43. Andy P says:

    VanOil: Pensacola to Edmonton is just un-doable.

    If they want to fly commercial, then it’s a puddle jumper to Houston and a direct flight on United to Edmonton. Or a non-stop Lear jet from Pensacola to Edmonton if Katz really wants to lay it on.

  44. Racki says:

    I want to see how Gagner on RW plays out, especially if Draisaitl is brought in. I think Gagner played quite well when he had Penner on his line. Having someone there with size to open ice for him could rejuvenate his career again. For this reason, I’d even take Penner back but doubtful he’d be interested.

  45. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks for the links, I was thinking more for the 91st pick

  46. denny33 says:

    Ekblad on Top.

    Barrie head coach Dale Hawerchuk, a former NHL star, doesn’t know about dynamic, but he does know impactful, because that’s what Ekblad has been from the moment he showed up to Barrie as a 15-year-old who was granted exceptional status by Hockey Canada to enter the OHL a year early.

    “He’s been a top pair, shutdown defenceman who played against the best players in our league from the day he got here,” Hawerchuk said, “and there’s no doubt in my mind, none whatsoever, that he’s going to be a really good top pair, shutdown defenceman who plays against the best players in the NHL. He’s been impactful since Day 1. He does it all and he does it all consistently and he’s going to be a 15 to 20 year top-pair NHL defenceman.”

  47. shawnmullin says:

    I’m skeptical of the extra skater data as well because I have no idea where they are getting their estimated ice time. Some of the numbers don’t really jive with what I saw.

    Quick note on Lernout… fast riser this year. Went from a guy who people saw as just a big hitter who could fight to someone who could play big minutes and put up some points. When Honka was away at World Juniors he manned the point on the PP and put up 9 points in a 9 game span. Has a hard one-timer and can get shots through from the point. He played again the other team’s best players for a stretch with top pairing guys missing and held his own.

    Turned a lot of heads this year. Trending in the right direction and has size.

  48. Ducey says:

    Racki: I think Gagner played quite well when he had Penner on his line. Having someone there with size to open ice for him could rejuvenate his career again. For this reason, I’d even take Penner back but doubtful he’d be interested.

    I am not sure Penner is going to have a lot of options. 3 points in 18 games down the stretch for WASH, isn’t going to help. He apparently only got 4th line minutes with WASH, but one has to wonder why.

    Its tough to see anyone offering him a two year deal.

    I for one don’t think the Oilers will make the playoffs this year (didn’t either last year) and wouldn’t mind if the Oilers stocked up on guys like Penner with an eye to helping develop/ shelter the younger players and then flipping them at the deadline.

  49. PaperDesigner says:

    Ducey: I am not sure Penner is going to have a lot of options. 3 points in 18 games down the stretch for WASH, isn’t going to help.He apparently only got 4th line minutes with WASH, but one has to wonder why.

    Its tough to see anyone offering him a two year deal.

    I for one don’t think the Oilers will make the playoffs this year (didn’t either last year) and wouldn’t mind if the Oilers stocked up on guys like Penner with an eye to helping develop/ shelter the younger players and then flipping them at the deadline.

    Penner would be a nice choice to solidify the middle six. They could use a value contract or two in there.

  50. VanOil says:

    Andy P: If they want to fly commercial, then it’s a puddle jumper to Houston and a direct flight on United to Edmonton. Or a non-stop Lear jet from Pensacola to Edmonton if Katz really wants to lay it on.

    This seems wrong, all international flights too and from Canada must go through Frankfurt or Air Canada releases the dirty pictures they have of John A Macdonald.

    Maybe if Florida drafts Ekblad, Kulikov can take a direct Aeroflot flight to YEG. One can dream.

  51. VanOil says:

    PaperDesigner: Penner would be a nice choice to solidify the middle six. They could use a value contract or two in there.

    A Penner-Arco-Draisaitl third line would do things that help teams win hockey games. It would be demonized by Sportsnet and loved by Bloggers.

    But it will not happen. Penner deserves better than to play in YEG where he would be bullied in the Media, by the fans and possibly coaches and management. Some smart Sunbelt GM will give him a contract, where he will charm the local media and fans – all 9 of them.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Thanks for the links, I was thinking morefor the 91st pick

    Reasonable time to try one of those guys on if everyone who had some offence is gone.

    Offence is the best predictor of NHL success, even for checking forwards and defensive defencemen.

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    Would love to see MacT trade into the 2nd round this weekend and draft Claude Lemieux’s lad.

  54. gvblackhawk says:

    Andy P: If they want to fly commercial, then it’s a puddle jumper to Houston and a direct flight on United to Edmonton. Or a non-stop Lear jet from Pensacola to Edmonton if Katz really wants to lay it on.

    Katz has a Bombardier Global Express 5000.

  55. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pretty sure I heard Stauffer say NN still being worked on. probably 2-3 year. and the $$ is going to hurt.

    also, based on today and yesterday, it seems fairly clear that the Oilers see NN as the “puck-moving” “top 4″ D for the off-season and not the “defensive defenseman”

    so… fuck.

  56. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Pretty sure I heard Stauffer say NN still being worked on. probably 2-3 year. and the $$ is going to hurt.

    also, based on today and yesterday, it seems fairly clear that the Oilers see NN as the “puck-moving” “top 4″ D for the off-season and not the “defensive defenseman”

    so… fuck.

    That’s the problem, really. Because if they signed Ference last season, and then Nikitin and Engelland this year, the depth chart, in reality:

    Marincin-Petry
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Ference-Nikitin
    Engelland

    So, who we protecting mate?

  57. G Money says:

    gvblackhawk: Katz has a Bombardier Global Express 5000.

    5000? 5000?!?!?! The 8000 is, like, 3000 more airplane than the 5000.

    Geez, no wonder we can’t get free agents to join the Oilers.

  58. oilersfan says:

    for those of you unhappy about Nikitin as the puck mover, who would you suggest the Oilers get?

    They have about as much a chance of landing Niskanen or Boyle as they do of keeping Chris Pronger’s wife happy. Word is Niskinan will go to San Jose. We can’t compete with that.

    Boyle wouldn’t sign with the Islanders…that is a team that is 1) in New York. and 2) made the playoffs one year ago. If we won’t sign with them, he won’t sign with us.

    Nikitan may be as good as it gets for the Oilers…he is what he is, a bridge until the younger players mature. This team has to build through the draft and sign C level free agents. That is what Nikitan is and all this team will ever get so what is there to complain about.

    If we want to cheer for a team that signs A or even B level free agents, you might as well start cheering for a different team or live in a different city, it ain’t happening here.

  59. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Pretty sure I heard Stauffer say NN still being worked on. probably 2-3 year. and the $$ is going to hurt.

    also, based on today and yesterday, it seems fairly clear that the Oilers see NN as the “puck-moving” “top 4″ D for the off-season and not the “defensive defenseman”

    so… fuck.

    While this does suck, the options for top pairs are quite slim. They could still sign him plus a bargain fancy statter though. The chances that MacT ends up with nothing are quite high though. This is just the fact we are faced with when you have a terrible team that doesn’t attract any players of value. Id rather they had a long shot than nothing at all and still going with a long shot like Marincin and forcing him to play above his level early in his career

  60. nycoil says:

    Lowetide: That’s the problem, really. Because if they signed Ference last season, and then Nikitin and Engelland this year, the depth chart, in reality:

    Marincin-Petry
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Ference-Nikitin
    Engelland

    So, who we protecting mate?

    That would be very disappointing.

    I’m also scared MacT was quoted as saying “Schultz isn’t needy.” This just boggles my mind. Schultz is the most needy defenseman on the roster by a long shot. Is he talented? Absolutely. Is he currently a liability? Definitely.

    I’m also terrified that if NN is the main signing on D this year then a trade we do not like is in the works with a young player(s) we like heading out for someone older and more expensive.

  61. RexLibris says:

    Gregor has an article up at ON talking to Scott Howson about draft picks. Here’s an excerpt from Howson: “In the NHL, I remember going back to when I was the assistant GM here and we had some small centres in Mike Comrie and Todd Marchant, so we kind of shied away from small centres, but three of four years later we had no small centres anymore. It taught me a lesson…”

    Are. You. Kidding?!

    I knew this when I was in my twenties and you had to learn this on the flipping job!

    That should not have been a lesson that needed to be learned, it ought to have been bloody taught to Howson from a voice of wisdom and insight.

    Sorry for the rant, but incompetence richly rewarded gets my hackles up.

  62. gvblackhawk says:

    G Money: 5000?5000?!?!?!The 8000 is, like, 3000 more airplane than the 5000.

    Geez, no wonder we can’t get free agents to join the Oilers.

    Gmoney, you of all people should know that the Global 8000 is not available yet! I’m sure Mr. Wayne will procure one when it is, and then the Oilers can fly all the top South African free agent hockey players direct to Edmonton. I love it when a great plan comes together.

  63. nycoil says:

    RexLibris,

    “Golly, we have a lot of defensemen.”

  64. VanOil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Pretty sure I heard Stauffer say NN still being worked on. probably 2-3 year. and the $$ is going to hurt.

    Less term good he can provide palliative care for Ferrence. Kelfbom or Nurse baby sitting Schultz less good.

  65. bendelson says:

    VanOil: Less term good he can provide palliative care for Ferrence. Kelfbom or Nurse baby sitting Schultz less good.

    I think you have that backwards… Schultz doesn’t require babysitting. Klef or Nurse will require it, and thankfully we have Justin to provide it. It’s like getting a 12 yr old to babysit your newborn – perfect!! What could go wrong?

  66. RexLibris says:

    More from Howson: ” It does take time because as you know the players that we pick Friday, after the first round pick, are probably not going to be here for another four or five years.”

    Supports LT’s stance of wait five years after the draft before declaring anything.

  67. Marc says:

    Thanks for this LT.

    Though I have to say that by this stage of the draft list, the only meaningful comment I can make is ‘Who are 78 people who have never been in my kitchen?’

  68. rickithebear says:

    RexLibris:
    More from Howson: ” It does take time because as you know the players that we pick Friday, after the first round pick, are probably not going to be here for another four or five years.”

    Supports LT’s stance of wait five years after the draft before declaring anything.

    Columbus playoff team was howson’s build minus Horton!

    I think he learned.

  69. RexLibris says:

    rickithebear: Columbus playoff team was howson’s build minus Horton!

    I think he learned.

    I’m not inclined to give too much credit in those situations.

    Case in point. Bryan Murray built the Ducks prior to Burke taking over, and Burke gets the glory for the SC win. Some suggest that it was Murray’s team plus Pronger. While I subtract from Burke’s legacy for the team he inherited I’m not going to simply heap praise on Murray in response.

    For Howson, he largely put the pieces in place and then left with the new GM taking the credit for the turnaround the team has taken since. Howson deserves credit for the Nash trade, but he also screwed up rather badly in the Carter deal (both of them) and the Wishniewski signing. There remains the fact that the team actually did improve its play once he left, for whatever reason.

    I’m more or less comfortable with every aspect of the Oilers’ management group with the exception of Scott Howson. I hope he proves me wrong.

  70. Ducey says:

    Marc: Thanks for this LT.Though I have to say that by this stage of the draft list, the only meaningful comment I can make is ‘Who are 78 people who have never been in my kitchen?’

    Apparently you don’t get around as much as LT’s mom

  71. rickithebear says:

    RexLibris: I’m not inclined to give too much credit in those situations.

    Case in point. Bryan Murray built the Ducks prior to Burke taking over, and Burke gets the glory for the SC win. Some suggest that it was Murray’s team plus Pronger. While I subtract from Burke’s legacy for the team he inherited I’m not going to simply heap praise on Murray in response.

    For Howson, he largely put the pieces in place and then left with the new GM taking the credit for the turnaround the team has taken since. Howson deserves credit for the Nash trade, but he also screwed up rather badly in the Carter deal (both of them) and the Wishniewski signing. There remains the fact that the team actually did improve its play once he left, for whatever reason.

    I’m more or less comfortable with every aspect of the Oilers’ management group with the exception of Scott Howson. I hope he proves me wrong.

    Jesus!
    Go thru each player and prospects.

    They were drafted or acquired by Howson.

    This was not burkes Anaheim’s glory ride!

    You know i look deep into this Shit!

    IT WAS HOWSON!

    WHEN all you whined about Howson in pro scouting.
    I had already done my work to see if it made sense.

    After looking!

    I went Halleluhjah!

    You guys whined!

    he cleaned ship in 4 years.
    Got rid of the Maclean Stench.

    He could not make carter sit his ass with suspension and no pay.
    Still owing the same # of years.
    So he made what was agood identification of a Solid Player.

    Then dunmped assets when Carter screwed him over.

  72. rickithebear says:

    LT:

    the end game is Goals for and Against.
    Facing Various Comp.

    there are 384 combinations of Play
    upper & lower First to fourth comp = GA.
    upper& lower first to fourth Team = GF
    6 levels of zone start
    8 X 8 X 6 = 384 combination of situations.

    as you all know i believ in a n expected average for each situation.
    You judge the player versu sthat mean.
    Forwards drive GF
    Dmen Shot distance and Shots.
    Goalies are largely hit by shots. but do have limited range in arm movenment, Pad movement and cross crease saves.

    At the basic core of Dmen is GA versu comp and ZS.
    Nikitin best EVGA/60 aginst 2nd/3rd comp.

    XXX-XXX
    XXX-Nikitin
    XXX-XXX
    Petry was 2.24 EVGA/60 with smid in 12-13 versus 1st comp
    Petry was 2.24 EVGA/60 with Ference in 13-14 versus 1st comp

    XXX-Petry
    XXX- Nikitin
    XXX-XXX

    Marincin Was 2.08 EVGA/60 versu 1st comp with 4th teamates.
    Marincin-Petry
    XXX-Nikitin
    XXX-XXX

    Schultz was 3.25+ evga/60 versus all comp without Marincin.
    danger will robinson

    Marincin-Petry
    XXX-Nikitin
    XXX-Schultz

    Ference was 2.19 EVGA/60 facing 1st comp until he tore his Pec.

    marancin-Petry
    Ference-Nikitin
    XXX-Schultz

    Deryk England
    faced 2nd Cmp with 2nd to 4th teamates.
    This year when he faced 2nd with forth comp he was 2.45 EVGA/60.
    when hew faced 2nd comp with 2nd/3r teamates he was 2.06 evga/60

    When he faced 3rd comp with 4th teamates he was 1.90 EVGA/60
    Marancin (2.08) – Petry (2.24)
    Ference (2.19) – Nikitin (1.31)
    Engalland (1.90)- Schultz ????????

  73. RexLibris says:

    rickithebear,

    Howson also fired his scouts in Columbus a few days after the 2012 draft, if I recall correctly.

    I’m not saying Howson is a moron. All I’m saying is that I try to temper the applause that outgoing GMs get when their teams succeed immediately following their departure.

    Howson excelled as Asst. GM here before because he could find those cheap, overlooked players who helped to complement the roster and buoyed the franchise for so long (for better or worse is debatable).

    I’ve never whined about Howson in pro scouting. Gare and Semenko give me pause, but not Howson.

  74. RexLibris says:

    Hainsey off the FA market. Carolina, 3 years just under $3 million average per.

  75. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: also, based on today and yesterday, it seems fairly clear that the Oilers see NN as the “puck-moving” “top 4″ D for the off-season and not the “defensive defenseman”

    How so? Was there something on the radio?

  76. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: Apparently you don’t get around as much as LT’s mom

    Hey now!

  77. spoiler says:

    Kypreos on HC Noon: Chicago is looking to improve 2nd line Center and Patrick Sharp is available.

  78. RexLibris says:

    LeBron leaving Miami? Can’t wait to watch The Decision 2014!

  79. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: Hey now!

    Sorry. Apparently she dated #90 :)

  80. spoiler says:

    Don’t know if it was mentioned above, but Hainsey has been signed by the Canes. That’s another name off the UFA List. There’s not going to be much good left by the time July 1 rolls around.

  81. misfit says:

    RexLibris:
    Hainsey off the FA market. Carolina, 3 years just under $3 million average per.

    That’s a shame. I would’ve much preferred Hainsey at that price than Nikitin for whatever we (most likely) end up giving him.

  82. Caramel Obvious says:

    misfit: That’s a shame.I would’ve much preferred Hainsey at that price than Nikitin for whatever we (most likely) end up giving him.

    What it shows is that the greater danger isn’t of paying Nikitin too much, it is of being left without a dance partner at all.

    With the cap situation the Oilers have it is almost impossible for them to make a bad signing because there are very few moves that would be worse than no move at all.

    So the baseline worst possible scenario is the Oilers doing nothing. Once you accept this you’ll come to realize that any move is a good move in comparison to the alternative. The choice isn’t between Hainsey and Nikitin, it is between Nikitin or nothing.

  83. Racki says:

    misfit: That’s a shame.I would’ve much preferred Hainsey at that price than Nikitin for whatever we (most likely) end up giving him.

    Except the Oilers wouldn’t get Hainsey at that price either.

    Caramel Obvious,

    Yes, exactly

  84. G Money says:

    Caramel Obvious: it is between Nikitin or nothing

    Actually, it could be Fraser – which is honest to gawd worse than nothing.

  85. Racki says:

    “@Aportzline: The window is now a sliding-glass door. #Oilers still talking w D Nikita Nikitin, but nothing settled. UFA interview window opens tomorrow.”

    That doesn’t sound promising. But he may wait and test the waters and find out the Oilers are really on the high end of offers too. So not all hope lost.

  86. Jordan says:

    Racki,

    I disagree – depending on how the agreement with CBJ is set up, they may not have to provide any compensation if the Oilers don’t sign him before the free-agency period starts.

    Could be they have an agreement on the table, and Nikitin is going to see if he can do better.

  87. G Money says:

    Racki,

    That might actually be a better thing – if the private window closes and the league-wide window opens and then they sign a deal, presumably the Oilers would get to keep their draft pick.

    EDIT: DAMN YOU AND YOUR QUICK FINGERS, JORDAN!

  88. Mr DeBakey says:

    RexLibris: he also screwed up rather badly in the Carter deal (both of them) and the Wishniewski signing

    I hope and pray MacTavish screws up this summer like Howson did with Wiznieski!

    Is there some way the Oilers could send the 3rd to Ohio in exchange for that screw-up?

  89. Jordan says:

    G Money,

    Hey – glad to know that some of my crazy ideas are shared by others in the groupthink here.

    Also:

    Mua! Ha! ha! ha! ha!

  90. Rondo says:

    Craig Button thinks the best fit as centre for the Oilers is Sam Bennett.

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