2014 DRAFT: TOP 30

In our continuing look at this year’s first round, there are some changes to this week’s edition. Information coming in from the Katsaros document added to some questions about Sam Bennett’s durability have impacted the top of the draft. As with all of these things, it’s a fluid situation.

  1. C Sam BennettThe Katsaros doctrine closes the gap. The birth date keeps him here, but is it enough?
  2. C Sam Reinhart—Crazy skill,  the Katzaros suggests he’s pushing the river. May be class of the group.
  3. D Aaron Ekblad—This guy might end up being No. 1 on my final list.
  4. C Leon Draisaitl—Looked good before Gatsaros, I think he’s very close to Bennett at this point.
  5. L Michael Dal Colle—Top quality pick, McKenzie says he’s close to No. 4.
  6. L Nikolaj Ehlers—I’m back on board with him as an outstanding player.
  7. L William Nylander—Skill and attitude make him a massive wild card.
  8. L Jake Virtanen—Power winger who can score goals. 33 EV goals. Lordy.
  9. R Kevin Fiala—I like him a lot, but is he really better than Nylander?
  10. C Robby Fabbri—The NHLE’s love him, high end skill.
  11. R Kasperi Kapanen—Wide range of views on the Finn, I like him plenty.
  12. L Nick Ritchie—What will he be in the NHL? A monster, but is he Lucic?
  13. L Brendan Perlini—He’s a load. If this was 1976 he’d go top 5.
  14. L Nikita Scherbak—Skilled, rugged winger stepped right into junior.
  15. L Jakub Vrana—I like his scouting report a lot. Sound pick.
  16. R Alex Tuch—Power forward, question is how much offense.
  17. C Jared McCann—A wide range of skills, I love these guys.
  18. C Ivan Barbasehev—Gritty player with skill.
  19. R David Pastrnak—Outstanding prospect, might have top 10 talent.
  20. D Haydn Fleury—Jay Bouwmeester’s younger brother.
  21. L Adrian Kempe—Like his resume, can succeed in a couple ways.
  22. C Connor Bleackley—The new Colby Armstrong.
  23. L Sonny Milano—Skill winger with some defensive issues.
  24. D Julius Honka—Everyone talks about his size. He’s a really good player.
  25. C Dylan Larkin—Power winger, one of these USHL kids.
  26. C Vladislav Kamenev—Creative, skilled, has size.
  27. R Josh Ho-Sang—Started slow, finished strong. Fast.
  28. D Roland McKeown—Fast train with skill.
  29. C Nick Schmaltz—Creative center with quick hands.
  30. R Nikolai Goldobin—Offense gets him here.

A few other draft notes:

  • The SCF could end this week, opening the transaction window. It’s my belief the Oilers will be making more than one trade before free agency begins, so they might get an early start.
  • The crickets you hear on the Jeff Petry contract are disconcerting. This is a valuable player the club should be locking up long term, but all we hear is crickets. I’ve watched the Oilers long enough to know this might be a problem.
  • Does anyone wonder about Justin Schultz’ status? No.
  • We should hear about Jiri Sekac soon, that might impact the Oilers. The club has been fairly successful in these things of late.
  • I wonder if the Oilers have shopped Gagner and found the prices poor down every aisle. Would that make them consider moving 89 to RW and dealing Eberle?
  • If the Leafs are shopping James van Riemsdyk, are you interested?
  • As much time as we’re spending fretting over the No. 3 overall pick, I think any of Bennett, Ekblad, Reinhart and Draisaitl would be a fine choice. And further to that, I don’t know many rational fans who claim to know the gap between those young men. I know there’s nothing in the math—even with the Katsaros doctrine—that’s a true tell.
  • It’ll be interesting to see if a team stays away from Bennett because pullup.
  • I’ve been watching these Oilers at the draft table since John Rogers, and would bet money their list is Aaron Ekblad, Leon Draisaitl, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Michael Dal Colle and Nick Ritchie 1-6. They might have Dal Colle and Ritchie even higher.
  • If the Oilers come away from the draft with a ‘future’ depth chart of Nuge, Draisaitl, Yakimov, Chase—is that looking better? I think it is. Patience, though.
  • Lowdown today packed with guests, TSN 1260 at 10. Scott Burnside from ESPN, Jeff Chapman from Copper and Blue, Andrew Buccholtz from 55-Yard Line, Robert Parades of Jewels from the Crown and Rob Soria from Oil Drop all scheduled to appear. 10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. See you on the radio!

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79 Responses to "2014 DRAFT: TOP 30"

  1. frjohnk says:

    Leon Draisaitl seen as possible number 1 pick
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/06/08/leon-draisaitl-seen-as-possible-first-overall-pick-in-nhl-draft/

    I think if Ekblad and Draisaitl go in the first two picks, that kind of throws a monkey wrench in the oilers ” getting more size” with their top pick. I wonder if they would be more willing to trade down.

  2. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:
    Leon Draisaitl seen as possible number 1 pick
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/06/08/leon-draisaitl-seen-as-possible-first-overall-pick-in-nhl-draft/

    I think if Ekblad and Draisaitl go in the first two picks, that kind of throws a monkey wrench in the oilers ” getting more size” with their top pick.I wonder if they would be more willing to trade down.

    possibly. However, Sam Reinhart AND Sam Bennett would be sitting there. That’s a stunning consolation prize.

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I keep meaning to ask. How are you getting ES TEAM GF and GA?

    The new toy

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?team=0

    only has ON ICE ESGF/GA as far as I can work out.

    Can’t find the data via the various league sites either… and there’s no way I’m going through game logs if that’s what you did… hahaha

  4. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: possibly. However, Sam Reinhart AND Sam Bennett would be sitting there. That’s a stunning consolation prize.

    I totally agree, but do the oilers? We wait.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I keep meaning to ask. How are you getting ES TEAM GF and GA?

    The new toy

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?team=0

    only has ON ICE ESGF/GA as far as I can work out.

    Can’t find the data via the various league sites either… and there’s no way I’m going through game logs if that’s what you did… hahaha

    I do it manually. If you go to the OHL site, under ‘standings’ tab you’ll find PP and PK totals. I add PPGF and PKGF, then add PKGA and PP GA, and then subtract from overall total.

  6. flyfish1168 says:

    frjohnk: Leon Draisaitl seen as possible number 1 pickhttp://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/06/08/leon-draisaitl-seen-as-possible-first-overall-pick-in-nhl-draft/ I think if Ekblad and Draisaitl go in the first two picks, that kind of throws a monkey wrench in the oilers ” getting more size” with their top pick. I wonder if they would be more willing to trade down.

    If Bennet is being compared to Gilmore and Reinhart is like kane i can’t see how you would not draft either one. To me what is more pressing of a concern is will the phlegms pick do better than ours over the long haul.

    look at St. Louis and you can’t tell me he isn’t performing great. Its the size of the fight you bring to the table sometimes

  7. Woodguy says:

    The crickets you hear on the Jeff Petry contract are disconcerting. This is a valuable player the club should be locking up long term, but all we hear is crickets. I’ve watched the Oilers long enough to know this might be a problem.

    It would be so Oilers to trade away their best Dman.

    I guarantee the player coming back wouldn’t be as good.

    Petry falls into the most undervalued category in the NHL.

    Dmen who make the puck go the other way, but don’t get the points.

    I remember arguing with Gregor about this. His end argument was “if he helps the offence, where are his points?”

    That isn’t just a typical MSM opinion, its typical of fans and NHL management too.

    I’m not bashing them, its just that its this type of thinking that creates an efficiency gap that can be exploited.

    This is actual money puck.

    This is picking players with very good OBP regardless of their other attributes.

    Here’s a few of these players in the NHL:

    Spurgeon
    Coburn
    Tanev
    Petry
    Hamonic
    Faulk
    Gilbert
    Fayne
    Braun
    Dillon
    Brodie
    Muzzin
    DeHaan

    There are others too.

    The NHL pays their players on their box cars.

    The players listed above move the puck in the right direction, but don’t participate as much in points.

    They can make your team much better without a big investment.

  8. HallDown says:

    LT, any idea what the “more than one trade before free agency begins” could be? Gagner is obviously one, but your thinking on that is correct LT…
    I’m thinking the crickets surrounding Petry are probably due to a few factors: Schultz contract is a big one. Fielding offers for him would be another. If Petry camp is demanding 1st pairing money for a 2nd pairing Dman, MacT would be wise to see how other teams deal with their guys to get a good barometer on the market, waiting til after the draft and Free Agency time to get serious. Oilers want to bring in a true #1 RD. That is and should be their focus. IMO, Petry should get $3MM, on a long-term deal.

  9. slopitch says:

    That Sekac player is interesting. 6″2 and 163 lbs. He has some filling out to do however he seems to have legit hype. I just retweeted this from Allan Walsh (@walsha)

    More Red Line Report: “Our Czech scout has seen Jiri Sekac in 5 KHL games this yr, reports he’s been the best player on ice in every game.”

  10. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy: The crickets you hear on the Jeff Petry contract are disconcerting. This is a valuable player the club should be locking up long term, but all we hear is crickets. I’ve watched the Oilers long enough to know this might be a problem.It would be so Oilers to trade away their best Dman.I guarantee the player coming back wouldn’t be as good.Petry falls into the most undervalued category in the NHL.Dmen who make the puck go the other way, but don’t get the points.I remember arguing with Gregor about this. His end argument was “if he helps the offence, where are his points?”That isn’t just a typical MSM opinion, its typical of fans and NHL management too.I’m not bashing them, its just that its this type of thinking that creates an efficiency gap that can be exploited.This is actual money puck.This is picking players with very good OBP regardless of their other attributes.Here’s a few of these players in the NHL:SpurgeonCoburnTanevPetryHamonicFaulkGilbertFayneBraunDillonBrodieMuzzinDeHaanThere are others too.The NHL pays their players on their box cars.The players listed above move the puck in the right direction, but don’t participate as much in points.They can make your team much better without a big investment.

    I believe Petry’s points are not there is due to the rotating head coach situation and he had to adapt to a new system each time. This should be taken into count.

  11. nycoil says:

    Lowetide: I do it manually. If you go to the OHL site, under ‘standings’ tab you’ll find PP and PK totals. I add PPGF and PKGF, then add PKGA and PP GA, and then subtract from overall total.

    LT, I have a question. What is it exactly about these McKeens numbers that has made Bennett drop a bit in your eyes, albeit hold onto #1 for now, and Draisaitl rise to near #1? I’ve read each of your recent posts, and all your comments, and I must be missing something.

    For example, in your “The Who, By the Numbers” post it seems that BenneTt outscores the opposition when on the ice by a greater margin (.5) than Reinhart (.4) and LD (.2). Yet, you think this set of numbers hurts Bennett and helps LD? Is Bennett getting penalized for being on a better team here?

    When compared to their line mates, it seems each of these three guys is driving the bus, and the raw numbers say Bennett is having the most positive impact, no? This is where I’m getting lost.

    Also… re Ehlers, will repost this here, but when you factor in a lot of circumstances (first year coming over to NA, most goals in the Q as a rookie since Crosby, skating compared to Bure, QMJHL scoring is actually down from historical levels), someone is going to get a steal late in the top 10, in my opinion.
    http://cats2thecup.wordpress.com/2014/04/25/dont-overlook-the-electric-ehlers/

    Also, if someone trades with Florida, walks up and takes Draisaitl instead of Ekblad, Buffalo takes Reinhart, Oilers should be grinning as they have your top 2 players from the Top 30 to choose from, no? I wouldn’t trade down at that point. If Buffalo for some reason takes Ekblad despite their blue line pool, two Nuges are better than one. Go run up and grab Reinhart.

  12. speeds says:

    I wouldn’t not pick Bennett because of his pullups if it’s simply because he was physically unable to do them – I side closer with the POV that it’s a potential positive in that once he gets physically stronger, who knows how much better of a player he might be?

    However, that’s assuming no underlying shoulder issue. If the pull ups were difficult to accomplish because of an underlying shoulder issue, then I could imagine a team having him and the other 3 close enough that they avoid the player with the shoulder concern.

  13. slopitch says:

    Woodguy,

    Brodie is underrated for sure. Spurgeon is also undersized which further lowers his value. I think the time to get him has passed as he was skating quite a bit with Suter in the playoffs and had a decent amount of pts despite a couple injuries. Edmonton boy though!

  14. One-Timer says:

    Ridiculous conspiracy theory: Sam Bennett fakes the pull-up fiasco so his draft value drops just enough to get him out of the Hopeless Bottomfeeder Zone.

    I’m actually embarrassed to have typed that. But I’ll post it anyway.

  15. nycoil says:

    Re: Petry- Are there crickets or instead is it a rumor the two sides are far apart? I’ve heard the latter. Remember since back in December I’ve been asking you at what point do we worry about a lack of noise on a Petry extension? Well here we are.

    Re: Schultz- Stauffer was on the radio and said his camp will not settle for McDonagh’s current contract ($4.7m x 6 years)

    Should have suspected as much given the circumstances by which Schultz came to the team, but man, have the Oilers really dug themselves a hole now by including him in the named “Core Four” at the exit interview. I mean, why do that? MacT is going to have egg on his face either way now: giving the Hall contract to a one-dimensional, totally flawed player or trading him away after that presser cause he can’t come to terms with him.

    Re: Eberle instead of Gagner. No. Eberle is a 25G/65PT player as a right winger. We have a known quantity. Yakupov may become better. He has the tools to be better. But trading Eberle now to downgrade to Gagner/Yakupov on wing before we know would be so Oilers. With Hemsky gone, the starboard side will have gone from being the biggest area of strength to one of the biggest holes. No and no.

  16. Pouzar says:

    “I wonder if the Oilers have shopped Gagner and found the prices poor down every aisle. Would that make them consider moving 89 to RW and dealing Eberle?”

    I get physically ill every time I read this suggestion.

  17. thejonrmcleod says:

    I have no idea who this Jiri Sekac fellow is.

  18. Woodguy says:

    nycoil,

    Re: Schultz- Stauffer was on the radio and said his camp will not settle for McDonagh’s current contract ($4.7m x 6 years)

    I didn’t hear that.

    That’s pretty gross.

    I still don’t think we know what he is given who this wonderful, smart, winning organization has played him with since he got here:

    Jultz 2084min 5v5 TOI in last 2 years

    Nultz 807min 43.2%CF
    Ference 464min 42.1%CF
    Belov 215min 49%CF
    Klefbom 126min 44.3% CF
    Whitney 120min 36.3% CF
    Smid 71min 37%CF
    Marincin 61min 49.6%CF

    That’s just a nutty list.

    He’s played 61% of 5v5 TOI with over-the-hill vets who hurt and don’t help. And they’ve played much tougher comp than they should have.

    Good for him for holding the OIlers’s feet to the fire.

    Bad for the Oilers as they may pay a bunch for a long time for a player who may never be a NHL average defender.

  19. Woodguy says:

    flyfish1168: I believe Petry’s points are not there is due to the rotating head coach situation and he had to adapt to a new system each time. This should be taken into count.

    You see this type of player on many teams though.

    They get the puck back in their own zone and make a good first pass getting the puck moving the other way.
    They help keep the play alive in the ozone.
    They deny zone entries by the other team and get the puck moving the other way with a good first pass.

    They don’t necessarily get involved in scoring play, but without them the puck isn’t in the ozone and available to be scored with.

  20. One-Timer says:

    A reasonable summer’s work:
    1. Pick Draisaitl and do PA a solid by sending him back for another year.
    2. Get that Hunter Smith kid with the next pick (he’s already 19!).
    3. Sign Petry for the love of gord.
    4. Either sign Schultz for much less than the Bionic Man contract, or package him with the 2015 1st for a legit top pairing D. Or does that make no sense because he’s RFA? I’m certain Marincin is going to start putting up some nice numbers, and he’s the Berlin Wall compared to Schultz.
    5. If Jultz gets signed, trade the McDavid lotto ticket and a mid-round pick and Gernat/Musil for the top-pairing D-man. The fanbase needs to know that this org is no longer in the market for top prospects. Nords/Avs got their cup a few years after three #1s in a row. Shouldn’t we?
    6. The Get Lucky piece: sign a UFA or two that will actually raise some eyebrows. At center, of course.
    7. Simmer.

    No playoffs next year, but finishing in or around 20th would be a triumph. Meanwhile you haven’t mortgaged the future and players like Gags and Yak will have a year to rebound. Also this entire group of youngsters gets one year older together, and takes a serious run at making the 2016 playoffs in the new arena. That’s my RE for MacT.

  21. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    I think it’s possible that Petry’s point totals aren’t there because he doesn’t get a lot of powerplay time.

    It’s concerning that the Oilers don’t see the value in Petry and instead seem to be fully invested in Schultz.

    Besides, Petry’s 15 even-strength points aren’t even that far off from Schultz’s 21.

  22. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Thanks LT… I knew you were stuck in the trenches on this…

    Looking at Nikolai Goldobin a little closer:

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=160550

    RW; 6’0″ 185 (Late B-Day, Oct)

    from elite prospects:

    Goldobin is a dangerous shooter with a wicked release on his wrist shot. He is quick and creative and can make defenders look foolish. He’s weak against bigger opponents and can look lost in his own zone but is extremely dangerous and can quietly slide into prime scoring areas. (August 2013)

    Boxcars:
    ALL: 67 38-56-94
    (last season: 68 30-38-68)
    ES: 67 28-37-65

    Sarnia
    ESGF: 147
    ESGA: 257

    Sarnia represents 36% of the ESGF; or 0.57 as expressed by McKeen’s

    (sidebar… yikes! what a shit show!)

    Goldobin:
    On-Ice ES GF: 89
    On-Ice ES GA: 117
    Sarnia with NG on-ice represents 43% of the ESGF; or, 0.76 as expressed by McKeen’s

    So, his team is batting 7% higher with him on the ice by this metric (or, +0.19 by McKeen’s)

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?team=17

    and, he’s got a 73% IPP

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/ipp-and-the-2014-draft-class/

    looks pretty good. late b-day is the big worry here.

  23. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Woodguy,

    I think it’s possible that Petry’s point totals aren’t there because he doesn’t get a lot of powerplay time.

    It’s concerning that the Oilers don’t see the value in Petry and instead seem to be fully invested in Schultz.

    That’s a good point that I missed as well.

  24. Racki says:

    Despite defensive flaws, I’d definitely trade for Jvr. Ready made centreman, yes please. I’d be willing to move any of Eberle, Yak, Perron (less so) or #3ov

  25. Caramel Obvious says:

    The question I’d like answered is what would you have to add to the #3 pick to get Couturier. That’ the winning move.

    What is the Katzaros doctrine?

    I agree with Woodguy on Petry.

  26. Racki says:

    As a big fan of Petry since his college days, I will say I enjoy the Petry appreciation here. Hopefully MacT doesn’t let him go like Tambi and Glendoublecross. He might not be overly pretty to watch, but he gets the job done.

    Re Schultz.. Still too raw and unproven. While it could backfire, I would be pushing hard for a bridge contract. There’s no way he deserves McDonaugh money at this point.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On Petry… I just want to recall that Eakins offered a fairly intensive defense of the player toward the end of the year:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/4/6/5587376/janus-headed-hockey-eakins-old-school-side-struggling-to-survive-in

  28. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy,

    We have so any of this type that he is expendable. LOL

    I’m still PO that Gilbert got traded for Schultz

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    slopitch: That Sekac player is interesting. 6″2 and 163 lbs.

    I’ve seen him listed anywhere from 163-194…

    With these Euro players there isn’t much updating on vital stats over the years. I’d guess that 163 number is from his draft year or around then.

    also… Allan Walsh is his agent… so take him with a grain of salt.

  30. slopitch says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Ya good point. 6″2 163 is pretty slight though. Likely an indicator that he’s a late bloomer.

  31. TheOtherJohn says:

    I would like to sign Petry to a 4-5 year deal. Thnk with his skillset set , if all D prospects develop as hoped, you could still move Petry in 2-3 years if you need to. If Schultz thinks he is a 5 years $28m player, I would bridge contract him and readily pay him in 2 years if he exceeds all expectations.

    Expect the Oilers will announce a 5x $5.5m deal for J Schultz because…..Oilers

    Rom had a possible projected D of:

    Orpik, Schultz, Greene, Ference, Engglund Marincin and Klefbom

    With that D at least we’llall have time on our hands next April because the Oil won’t be playing hockey

  32. supernova says:

    I am not concerned over crickets on contracts until August.

    It would be good to clear these earlier but not necessary.

    Stauffer hinted that management touched base with Petry & Schultz agent at the combine.

    I didn’t hear the same thing about Schultz / Mcdonaugh type contract.

    I heard that if he was Schultz it would be better to not sign that contract but to sign a 2 year bridge deal and then he would likely command more after showing what he and the oilers expect him to become.

    Knowing Stauffer’s connections I felt he was hinting at a bridge and to hope to replicate a PK Subban situation. ( Bridge to Long term high dollars)

    I could be wrong but that is the way I heard it. Not concerning to me. I would prefer a bridge with Schultz.

  33. Woodguy says:

    flyfish1168:
    Woodguy,

    We have so any of this type that he is expendable. LOL

    I’m still PO that Gilbert got traded for Schultz

    I almost guarantee that.

    Can’t have 3 RH Dmen who move the puck!!!

    Quick trade one for a flat tire!

  34. Racki says:

    If we can make up with Comrie, we can make up with Gilbert and Penner right? Has it been long enough yet? “We were just kidding, guys”

  35. nycoil says:

    supernova,

    I agree bridge for Schultz makes the most sense, but Stauffer said he wouldn’t settle for/sign a McDonagh contract now anyway because that has turned out to be a huge win for the Rangers and huge loss for McDonagh.

    If the Oilers were actually trying to win, they’d re-sign Petry to a 5 year deal, buying at least a few years of UFA status from him, bring in Stralman on a 5 year deal, sign Gilbert and Fayne, send Schultz down to be top pair OKC with Klefbom and run Marincin, Ference, Petry, Stralman, Gilbert, Fayne for the year.

    But of course they promised Schultz the moon and love Klefbom so that will never happen. Not to mention having Gilbert AND Petry (two “soft” Dmen who can move the puck) will be too much for the fan base to handle.

  36. wheatnoil says:

    Thing is, out of Schultz and Petry, Schultz is the one they should consider trading as part of the famed 3 for 1 package. His value is higher. His potential is also high and we shouldn’t beat him up too much yet. The guy’s been forced over his head and he’s only really had a season and a half of NHL experience. Still, if there’s a way to pry a bonafide top defender out of another team, Schultz is the chip I’d prefer they use over Petry.

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Remember last year around this time…

    The few straggling Whitney boosters left (maybe not here but around) were crowing: “just wait until FA, he’ll get a contract and show you!”

    Haven’t seen any Nick Schultz boosters this off season… his free agency is going to be interesting.

    in a year or two… we could have completely forgotten about Oiler Matt Greene heading to free agency.

  38. Racki says:

    I can’t believe Whitney had any boosters. Maybe they were casual fans who thought we had Ray

  39. flyfish1168 says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    JMHO. I don’t believe Schultz deserves more then Petry. Petry is our best Dman. JMHO

  40. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki:
    I can’t believe Whitney had any boosters. Maybe they were casual fans who thought we had Ray

    I remember arguing about him with people. maybe at ON. can’t recall… they existed… or my brain reverse engineered them.

    shit…

  41. nycoil says:

    The thing that’s baffling is that if there was one thing our POHO was good at, it was bringing in undervalued defenders that could play. Spacek, Tarnstrom, Gilbert, Hejda. Not one of these guys was a Fraser or Engelland but each one could play in a defined role. Did he just forget how to find them now or is it really MacT’s ship and he is providing no input? Yes, a top shelf defender would be great, but at least bring in a pair of 8s rather than run 4s and 6s out there all the time hoping to make a straight.

  42. One-Timer says:

    wheatnoil:
    Thing is, out of Schultz and Petry, Schultz is the one they should consider trading as part of the famed 3 for 1 package. His value is higher. His potential is also high and we shouldn’t beat him up too much yet. The guy’s been forced over his head and he’s only really had a season and a half of NHL experience. Still, if there’s a way to pry a bonafide top defender out of another team, Schultz is the chip I’d prefer they use over Petry.

    My RE for MacT points #3 and #4 agree with you.

  43. Jordan says:

    Woodguy:
    nycoil,

    Re: Schultz- Stauffer was on the radio and said his camp will not settle for McDonagh’s current contract ($4.7m x 6 years)

    I didn’t hear that.

    That’s pretty gross.

    I still don’t think we know what he is given who this wonderful, smart, winning organization has played him with since he got here:

    Jultz 2084min 5v5 TOI in last 2 years

    Nultz 807min 43.2%CF
    Ference 464min 42.1%CF
    Belov 215min 49%CF
    Klefbom 126min 44.3% CF
    Whitney 120min 36.3% CF
    Smid 71min 37%CF
    Marincin 61min 49.6%CF

    That’s just a nutty list.

    He’s played 61% of 5v5 TOI with over-the-hill vets who hurt and don’t help.And they’ve played much tougher comp than they should have.

    Good for him for holding the OIlers’s feet to the fire.

    Bad for the Oilers as they may pay a bunch for a long time for a player who may never be a NHL average defender.

    If that’s what he’s asking for, you trade him. Full-stop. He’s not worth it now, and his d-zone coverage has shown marginal improvement over the last 2 years.

    Either bridge contract him, or deal him.

    How much more than him and the 3rd OV would you need to deal to get Malkin? Could you do it without sending TH, RNH, JE or NY? Would Gagner, Shultz, 3rd OV + a D prospect do it?

  44. Hammers says:

    The truth is McT needs to sign both Petry & Schultz . Doubt he will trade either before both the draft or UFA cut off . At that point both he & the players know where they stand . If we don’t add any “D” at all they both are in for a bigger pay day . If he adds 2 higher end “D” players or even Stralman & Fayne McT has a chance at better deals with both of them as it pushes them down the batting order . I do agree a trade may happen before the draft but I am expecting something more off the wall so to speak .

  45. One-Timer says:

    Jordan: If that’s what he’s asking for, you trade him.Full-stop.He’s not worth it now, and his d-zone coverage has shown marginal improvement over the last 2 years.

    Either bridge contract him, or deal him.

    How much more than him and the 3rd OV would you need to deal to get Malkin?Could you do it without sending TH, RNH, JE or NY?Would Gagner, Shultz, 3rd OV + a D prospect do it?

    PIT has to get back a 2C in that deal because they’re not going into rebuild mode with a Reinhart or Bennett in that spot. Would they like Gagner there? Frees up $4M at that position for some help in their bottom 6. That would be a 3-for-1 for the ages! LT could finally die and go to heaven.

    But I can’t see it happening. So jaded.

  46. nycoil says:

    He Didn’t say that’s what he was asking, just that he wouldn’t sign that. If I were in his camp I’d probably want a bridge deal, actually. Go the Subban route, only at a higher annual salary. I’ve just been paid a lot more on my first two years than I would have had I signed a 2nd rounder’s ELC with Anaheim. I’m not looking for financial security now, but would look to maximize my payday later.

    With the cap at $71.1m next year and looking to go up in the future do you think there’s any chance Hall would sign a 7/42M deal now?

    MacT’s challenge is to convince Jultz to sign two years at Subban money but he has no leverage while Jultz holds all the cards now.

  47. Melman says:

    wheatnoil,

    I think you’re right. I don’t know enough about young D to tell you that you’d be trading away Erik Karlsson, but I don’t think you are. Petry is the better D now, there are more on the way and I suspect Schultz brings back more in a trade, but what do we know.

  48. Caramel Obvious says:

    Subban was a much, much, much, better player than Schultz when he signed his two year deal. Schultz shouldn’t anything like him.

    Really, Schultz is nowhere in the class of Subban or McDonagh. If he wants to get paid like them, I’d trade him in a second.

    That said, this is all just talk. Worrying about contracts ahead of time from afar is misplaced anxiety.

  49. One-Timer says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Lol… great point.
    The words “Jultz” and “Norris” don’t belong in the same province together.

  50. nycoil says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Agree 100%. He isn’t half the player those guys are. But he is about to be paid like he is that and more. I wasn’t in any shape or form saying McDonagh and Subban SHOULD be the comparables. Given the bad position MacT is in, if he manages to get Jultz under contract for under $6M total on a 2 year bridge deal (like Bergevin with Subban), that would have to be considered a win.

  51. misfit says:

    I wonder if Karabacek will be available at 91. His numbers are ok (not outstanding), but I figure getting a Czech from Gatineau in the system is the closest we’ll be to getting Hemsky back.

    Of course, I’ve kind of expected Karabacek to be an early/mid 3rd rounder with a shot at sneaking into the bottom of the 2nd. So getting him at the top of the 4th seems unlikely.

  52. nycoil says:

    On the Bennett thing and whether teams will stay away due to the pull- up thing, one Brian Burke: “A Doug Gilmour-type centre, who scores, puts up big numbers, has leadership skills. And this kid is a mean little (****). They’re making fun of him because he couldn’t do any pull-ups at the combine last week. I don’t give a (hoot) if he can do pull-ups.”

  53. Yak2 says:

    If Ekblad is gone, I’d trade down and get two 1st rounders and grab Nick Ritichie and Alex Tuch

  54. druid99999 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I did a scrape of the WHL site, you can see the EV scoring in this Google SS.

    Hopefully I’ve got the permissions set properly.

  55. WeirsBeard says:

    Woodguy:
    The crickets you hear on the Jeff Petry contract are disconcerting. This is a valuable player the club should be locking up long term, but all we hear is crickets. I’ve watched the Oilers long enough to know this might be a problem.

    It would be so Oilers to trade away their best Dman.

    I guarantee the player coming back wouldn’t be as good.

    Petry falls into the most undervalued category in the NHL.

    Dmen who make the puck go the other way, but don’t get the points.

    I remember arguing with Gregor about this.His end argument was “if he helps the offence, where are his points?”

    That isn’t just a typical MSM opinion, its typical of fans and NHL management too.

    I can’t help but shake my head when folks get like this. The MSM seemingly doesn’t understand tactics, or non goal related results.

    The Oilers once had this guy named Wayne. Excellent defensive player, maybe the best ever. His hit count was off the charts, so was his blocked shots. Oh, and his eye glow in the defensive zone…oh, wait…

    The criticism for the Petrys Has always struck me as strange for a blue collar town. Under appreciated effort and solid work without excessive reward should be heralded.

  56. nycoil says:

    Draftbuzz just put out their final ranking. top 10: #1 Dal Colle, #5 Ekblad, #7 Draisaitl, etc. Not sure if we care about that site? Have a link to their top 10

  57. WeirsBeard says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Subban was a much, much, much, better player than Schultz when he signed his two year deal.Schultz shouldn’t anything like him.

    Really, Schultz is nowhere in the class of Subban or McDonagh.If he wants to get paid like them, I’d trade him in a second.

    That said, this is all just talk.Worrying about contracts ahead of time from afar is misplaced anxiety.

    Way too much anxiety in the ‘sphere over dollars. Philly is always able to make things happen, and look at Lou in NJ, breaks the rules on contracts and gets away with it. Not saying MacT is Lou, or crazy like Philly, but solutions are always there, and risk is seemingly easy enough to push to the future.

  58. Jon K says:

    Lots of interesting topics in this post and the comments.

    I think that we have to ding Bennett a little but not a lot in light of the new information. In my estimation it’s enough for Reinhart to supplant him as the top pick.

    Re: Petry and Schultz. In my time as an Oilers fan I’ve seen many examples of management falling in love with the wrong players and sending the right players out of town. At this point its basically becoming a long and rich history of ineptitude. It’s extremely disconcerting that this team is incapable of evaluating the talent on their own roster. If we see Petry sent away for asking for fair value and Schultz retained on a long term money contract, this rebuild will have added another obstacle. Quite frankly, if Schultz wants more money than McDonagh, it strengthens my belief that the Oilers need to strongly consider moving him now, while it remains unclear whether or not he has more upside defensively and offensively. He could simply be the player he is now, and that player is not worth +$5 mill.

    Re: the pull-up. I think that undoubtedly some teams will put way too much importance on Bennett’s failure. After all some teams use top 100 picks on Heskeths and Abneys essentially because they are big or can fight.

    Re: the 3rd overall. Fans have nothing to worry about with this selection. The Oilers are likely scared of Bennett and it seems unlikely that Florida or Buffalo will take Draisaitl and Ekblad. In any situation that may arise, they are getting at least Ekblad, Draisailt, or Reinhart. That’s a win in my mind.

  59. fifthcartel says:

    Stauffer saying the Oilers would have time for Kulemin, and then says depending on the Gagner situation Grabovski would be another player of interest.

    That is encouraging to hear. Those two would go a long way to help.

  60. HBomb says:

    Lowetide,

    Two draft-related thoughts here:

    1) Going back to a previous suggestion of Gagner plus the 3OV to the Leafs for Phaneuf and the 8OV; if that deal effectively means dealing off Draisaitl/Bennett for Virtanen in order to convert Gagner to Dion, I think long and hard about it. Then again, I rate Virtanen higher than some due to multiple viewings over the past couple WHL seasons.

    2) If Connor Bleackley only turns out to be Colby Armstrong, that’s a disappointment in my mind. He’s the late first-rounder that I’m very keen on tracking over the next few years – some team is going to get a player in that one. Once again though, repeated WHL viewings may leave me biased.

    Non-draft item: apparently the Bruins may shop Marchand to open up some cap-space for other needs (source: TSN article this morning). Personally, I’m highly intrigued by the idea of grabbing him to play on the same line as Perron, just for the entertainment factor.

  61. russ99 says:

    fifthcartel,

    Agree, that’s a good sign.

    Re: Petry/Schultz – I think we really need to sign both of them, losing a defenseman would set us even further back, considering how hard for us it is to get even an average to above-average one.

    But if the budget only allows for one. I’d keep Schultz – the ridiculously creative one on offense who’s got better numbers than similar players at his experience level, and who’s defensive deficiencies are vastly overexposed by too much ice time and a role well above what he can handle. With a real coaching staff and a decent defensive corps (both forwards and defensemen), he could show marked improvement.

    Those players don’t grow on trees. He’s not gonna be cheap, but that’s more due to how we got him than anything else.

    Petry is a solid defenseman, but not gamebreaking on either end of the ice. Plus he’d return a lot more than Schultz at this point…

  62. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Jultz has less leverage than ppl here think. Last year, any offer sheet over 3.4M cost at least a first rounder as compensation.

    With the McDavid draft no GM will want to have the potential of missing out on a lottery win for an overpaid and flawed defender (regardless his potential).

  63. G Money says:

    Caramel Obvious: Worrying about contracts ahead of time from afar is misplaced anxiety.

    When you’re an Oiler fan, it’s often well-placed anxiety.

  64. godot10 says:

    1) Jeff Petry will go arbitration to UFA next summer unless it is 4 x $5 million. He has no reason to sign for less with UFA status 12 months away. He is a multitool top 4 veteran mid career NHL D. The top pairs get $7 million plus. The 2nd pairs get $5 million plus. 3rd pairing guys get $3 million plus.

    2) A bridge contract of Schultz is the best option for both sides. Schultz has played too high in the roster with subpar help. Nick Leddy is still a 3rd pairing D, for example. 2 x $3 million is a reasonable bridge contract. Remember, puck moving D have been the difference makers in the playoffs.

    3) The quality of the centres available at #3 make it unwise to move the pick or trade down. It would have to be an exceptional offer to get me to bite.

  65. OilClog says:

    If Schultz get that contract I have no faith in MacT. He’d never get it from Slats.

  66. gogliano says:

    Speeds, as always, has a nice point above that seems to be missed in the MSM commentary — the rational concern about the pullup isn’t the lack of natural strength issue (that might be a plus when he fills out), it is the concern about the underlying shoulder/injury.

    The has been a lot of teeth gnashing about Galchenyuk and the #1 but when you have the advantage of going first I think you have the luxury of avoiding the kids with possible injury concerns. How many of the Top5 busts in the past 20 years had injury issues? I can see teams playing it safe and Bennett dropping a slot or two even if FLA or BUF think he might be the best player in the draft. I think he has the highest upside but when there is pretty equal quality playing it conservative has a lot of value.

  67. Deadman Waiting says:

    slopitch:
    Ya good point. 6″2 163 is pretty slight though. Likely an indicator that he’s a late bloomer.

    Those were my vitals circa prom night. Then in my freshman year I turned into a human space heater and grew another 2.5″

    At the worst of it, I recall the evening I ordered a large pizza, just a few hours after inhaling a large dinner at the residence cafeteria (where no-one else inhaled). When the pizza guy came, someone down the hall said “are you going to share that?” Perhaps the most hostile expression of my adult life flashed across my face in that instance. Inconceivable! I woke up the next morning with hunger pangs. I remember that morning so vividly. “This is not possible!”

    In other news, I nearly wore the lever off the commode in the dormitory bathroom.

    Flush.

    Are you done?

    Nope.

    Flush.

    Are you done?

    Nope.

    Late October in southern Ontario I’m walking back to the residence with a classmate (Calgary boy with a crown of blond poodle curls) and he’s bitching about the frost. Wimp. He was wearing a thick Alberta sweater. By then I was a BC boy from the milquetoast tip. His grousing was getting on my nerves so I said “hey, do you want my coat?” He looks at me like I’m nuts. “Seriously, I don’t need it.” And there I am with bare arms—and the physique of an Ethiopian distance runner fresh off of Cromwell’s rack—enjoying a brisk midnight walk with frost on my breath.

    Total body inferno phase lasted for about three weeks. Well after the peak, my first summer work term in humid Toronto during a heat wave was hell on wheels. I have strangely vivid recollections of my love affair with the bathtub. Three times a night! After a month I cracked and bought an air conditioner for a small side window at the top of the stairs between a pair of garret-style bedrooms. More than once I fell into the sleep-of-the-dead crumpled up against the wall on the patch of faded carpet under my dearly beloved.

    One time—not in a humid province—a friend asked me to help him move. When I showed up on my bike at 0700 and started unloading my pannier, he asked me “what’s that?” I said, “my spare shirts.” He said, “you brought four spare T-shirts?” I said, “well, yeah, maybe I’m cutting it thin, but I figure I’m only here until lunch.”

    This morning I was at the dentist for a small repair. Lost a fragment of a biting edge. Very nearly told her to skip the Novocain, but I didn’t on the off chance she hits a live nerve ending. The minor procedure was not my concern. However, one nerve ending properly dinged, and quickly regret is a real bitch.

    This I know. One time a dental hygienist was working below the gum line, where there was this little fleck of calculus making cat calls of “remember the Alamo!” until with unbridled professionalism he drove his pointy pick right through the ore face, where it embedded into soft gum tissue well below the enamel crown. To my credit I only stiffened momentarily, but every pore along my hairline,—temple to temple—wet itself in precisely the same instant, and fat bulbs of precious electrolytes welled up like a conga line of aphids Tasered by their ant masters. Wow, I said to myself, recalling hundreds of grim pages from Gulag Archipelago, which I had recently read, imagine if he were actually trying. Poker-hot lightning bolts are just the half of it. There comes a point where your bodily fluids don’t know whether they are coming or going, and the cortisol overdose begins to downsize your brainstem (paring away any superfluous tissue that isn’t involved in the complaining process).

    But no matter about my determined hygienist (who gave the same nerve ending a second love tap). Sure beats Toronto on a humid day back when I was a teenaged beanpole. Misery is a strangely relative thing.

    Thirty years later, I took my dental clinic paperwork clipboard outside and sat on the sidewalk in the chill morning air while filling it out.

    [_] Palpitations
    [_] Hot flash

    Nah, at this point I wouldn’t call it a flash, exactly.

    ————

    There, my entire late-adolescent growth-spurt fish story without using the word “literally” even once. It’s a dangerous word, best avoided.

    Rabbi Baruch Koff, a defender of Richard Nixon during his Watergate ordeal, protested: “The American press has literally emasculated President Nixon.”

    How he rued the invention of polycarbonate lamination. As Mark Twain used to say, who needs a box cutter when you’ve got a press card?

    Turns out it wasn’t even Mark Twain who said never pick a fight with a man who buys ink by the barrel and paper by the ton

    This silly post makes some lame attempts to update this expression for modern times. Typical of the proposals:

    Never pick a fight with someone who has a camera and a Twitter following

    And that’s far from the lamest. How about:

    Never pick a fight with someone who leases botfarms.

    By “leases” I means “lets”. Stupid language. Even tighter:

    Never pick a fight with a botfarm proprietor.

    No cloud nine for you with the packet barometer rising.

    Popular etymology references the 1896 edition of the International Cloud Atlas which defined ten types of cloud. The book defined the ninth cloud as the cumulonimbus, which rises to 10 km, the highest a cloud can be. No conclusive evidence, however, confirms this origin.

    I learn something new from these dang intertubes every day.

  68. nycoil says:

    Kills me to be the first one posting after Deadman just waxed eloquent, but this just in:
    Arthur Staple of Newsday, considered reliable around these parts, says the Isles are possibly trading the #5 pick.
    And side note, the Big 5 are here in town to watch Game 3

    https://twitter.com/StapeNewsday/status/476036487121993728

  69. commonfan14 says:

    Deadman Waiting: When the pizza guy came, someone down the hall said “are you going to share that?” Perhaps the most hostile expression of my adult life flashed across my face in that instance.

    For anyone wishing for a Penner return next season, just remember that he’s on the record in an interview saying that he couldn’t ever receive his order at the DQ drive-through in Edmonton without getting the stink-eye from the person holding the bag.

    People don’t like questions or comments when it comes to food.

    He’s never coming back.

  70. supernova says:

    nycoil:
    Kills me to be the first one posting after Deadman just waxed eloquent, but this just in:
    Arthur Staple of Newsday, considered reliable around these parts, says the Isles are possibly trading the #5 pick.
    And side note, the Big 5 are here in town to watch Game 3

    https://twitter.com/StapeNewsday/status/476036487121993728

    nycoil,

    I think we can see the Isles are trying to desperately qualify for the Playoffs.

    Stape has said this a couple of times.
    Stauffer has said maybe there is a connection with Gagner or Yakupov or both,
    Gagner and Tavares are good buddies.
    Yakupov because of young finishing talent and the Russian contingent in Brooklyn.
    Not sure what type of deal it would be either way but looks like a makings of a connection.

    as For As Schultz goes I think all parties would prefer a bridge deal ( team, player, fans) unless he wanted to do a deal for long term at low 4′s but if you are him i dont think you would do that.

  71. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Travis-Yost/The-Cap-Crash-Aint-Coming-This-Year/134/60500

    Travis Yost with a story about the salary cap going up this year and next-could be as high as $76M in ’15/16

  72. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=454383

    TSN off season watch-a couple interesting items including a Stastny update and Johnny Boychuk’s name being mentioned.

  73. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    druid99999:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I did ascrape ofthe WHL site, you can see the EV scoring in this Google SS.

    Hopefully I’ve got the permissions set properly.

    thanks!!

    that’s awesome.

    couldn’t figure out how to download it… (luddite!)

    so I just took a screen grab of it… this will be useful.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Sweet Jesus the Lethbridge Hurricanes are awful.

  75. blainer says:

    slopitch:
    That Sekac player is interesting. 6″2 and 163 lbs. He has some filling out to do however he seems to have legit hype.I just retweeted this from Allan Walsh (@walsha)

    More Red Line Report: “Our Czech scout has seen Jiri Sekac in 5 KHL games this yr, reports he’s been the best player on ice in every game.”

    According to Bob McKenzie he 6″2 and 190lbs…with a lot of teams interested in trying to sign him. My take on the draft is if Florida doesn’t draft Ekblad he falls to Calgary. My gut says the oilers are drafting LD. Bridge Shultz and sign Petry to a three year deal or trade him with Gags for Tyler Myers.

  76. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Lowetide:
    Sweet Jesus the Lethbridge Hurricanes are awful.

    That’s the nicest thing anyone has said about the hurricanes all year.

  77. PunjabiOil says:

    re: Petry. The mistake was made by Tambellini in the last contract (along with the Dubnyk contract for too much money when his comparables made much less). There was no sense going bridge contract when a bit more may have bought some UFA years. The Oilers were well below the cap the past two years – there was nominal benefit of nickle and diming on a short-term contract as it’s going to cost them now when they need more cap space.

    Further, I’m not really sure how much Petry wants to stay long-term. He’s an American guy who may want to play closer to home in Detroit. Furthermore, with social media (twitter) and the abuse he takes from dumbfuck Oilers fans, why should a guy like him take a short-term contract, when a long-term contract is a mere 12 months away?

    That said, MacT and Eakins buy into analytics and I believe Eakins has provided public comments in support of Eakins. It’s June – lets wait a month before starting to hit the panic button. RFA’s across the league have yet to be signed.

    Re: Schultz. Lets hope MacT shows some Slats in negotiations. Slats, what a beauty of a negotiator and slick on trades. Correct me if I’m wrong, Oilers have 4 more years of Schultz rights (he turns 24 on July 6, 2014 – therefore, doesn’t turn 27 until July 6, 2017). There is no reason to give Schultz both term and money if it doesn’t buy enough UFA years. Bridge contract ~2 – 2.3M is what the Oilers should be looking at, and assessing whether Schultz will actually improve. Giving him a Faulk contract would be silly given the Canes bought 4 UFA years, not 2.

    Re: Grabovski/kulemin – good news. Suspect we’ll see a summer similar to the one Jonathan Willis proposed, and one endorsed by Stauffer as “interesting..”

  78. druid99999 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Here are the OHL and QMJHL sheets.

    To get a copy try File > Download as
    or just select all the data and copy.

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