2014 DRAFT: TOP 30

As promised, I’ll be posting a new top 30 each Monday morning from now through draft week. This is the period where the Euro kids are finding their way and we’re looking for gems. There are a few tweaks from last week, and I’ve added new verbal because it worries me if you’re bored.

  1. C Sam Bennett—I’ve never seen a pull-up score a goal. He stays at No. 1.
  2. D Aaron Ekblad—I think he killed five guys at the combine. He moves up 1.
  3. C Sam Reinhart—Crazy skill, talk now of his being a better winger. I’ve bumped him 1.
  4. C Leon Draisaitl—Oilers Nation doesn’t like him, I’m liking him more.
  5. L Michael Dal Colle—Something tells me he’ll be a Canuck draft day. NY Islanders are crazy.
  6. L William Nylander—Rumors about Florida, which makes sense. We’ll never hear from him again.
  7. L Nikolaj Ehlers—I’m a little suspicious of his results based on teammates.
  8. R Kevin Fiala—Insane NHLE moves him up. Will he go higher?
  9. C Robby Fabbri—Fun watch during Memorial Cup. He’s a gem.
  10. R Kasperi Kapanen—I like him plenty, but he had a terrible U-18. Still, Finn.
  11. L Nick Ritchie—He’s a monster. High risk because we don’t know about offense.
  12. R Jake Virtanen—Power winger who can score goals. Outstanding release, very physical.
  13. L Brendan Perlini—Might be what people think Ritchie is going to become.
  14. L Jakub Vrana—The Detroit/SJ first-round pick. He’ll blossom in the 2017 re-draft.
  15. R Alex Tuch—Power forward with enough skill to play on a scoring line.
  16. L Ivan Barbasehev—Excellent offensive player, excellent passer, effective scorer. Gritty player.
  17. R David Pastrnak—He’s a first-shot scorer with speed and skill. Outstanding prospect.
  18. D Haydn Fleury—I just can’t see him as a complete defender, and his offense isn’t awesome.
  19. C Jared McCann—Two-way center with a defensive bent. I love these player types.
  20. L Adrian Kempe—Skill winger with size and a nice range of skills. Determined player.
  21. L Sonny Milano—Skill winger who can make plays and score goals. Some defensive issues.
  22. L Dylan Larkin—Power forward impressed at the U-18 World Hockey Championships.
  23. D Julius Honka—I like him plenty. Mobile, smart, has grit.
  24. L Nikita Scherbak—Skilled, rugged winger impressed with range in his WHL debut.Quality.
  25. L Nikolai Goldobin—Offense gets him here.
  26. R Josh Ho-Sang—Speed burner can score goals, finished strong.
  27. R Connor Bleackley—Two-way winger has nice range of skills, may lack offensive gear.
  28. C Nick Schmaltz—Creative center with quick hands.
  29. C Vladislav Kamenev—Impressive skill player with size, lit U-18′s on fire.
  30. D Roland McKeown—Big, mobile defender with a terrific shot. A lot to like.

Gone are Spencer Watson and Thatcher Demko.

TRENDING

One thing that happens during the weeks leading up to the draft is trending players. I expect this comes from reporters talking to scouts and management folks, because the people who provide draft information for a living have already published (mostly). So, you’ll find these players trending this week:

  • D Travis Sanheim. Red Line Report, early March: Has been a revelation of late. Huge, rangy blue-liner’s confidence has been soaring, and we love his combination of size, skating, puck skills and shot.
  • D Marcus Pettersson: Pronman, April: You see the tools of SWE D Marcus Pettersson. He’s big, very mobile, skilled but his D zone work little cringe worthy.
  • L Brendan Lemieux: Claude’s boy, and he’s a lot like Dad.
  • C Ryan Donato: Dominant prep scorer, long range prospect but deadly offense.

MY LIST

I think my top 30 is pretty much surrounded, we’re up to seven European kids and that seems about right. The next few weeks will be spent on tweaking things, and honestly beyond the top five I have some questions. Like:

  1. Should Nylander be inside the top 5? Who comes out?
  2. Ehlers had some dynamite help this season. Is he too high?
  3. Is Ritchie a guy who will play at 215 or 230?
  4. Perlini’s scouting report doesn’t pop, but is that a reason to keep him out of the top 10?
  5. Why do I have this feeling Detroit will take Vrana and he’ll be great?
  6. What’s with all these USHL kids?
  7. Nikita, Nikolai. Nikolai, Nikita.
  8. Why do I keep listing Fleury and McKeown lower than everyone else? Is it me?

Anyway, those things will figure themselves out as the Mondays roll along. Lowdown this morning features Scott Burnside from ESPN (about last night and the combine), Dustin Nielson (about the draft), Rob Vollman (looking at Petry and Schultz’s contracts and offer sheets) and Kent Wilson from Flames Nation talking about Calgary’s summer.

I’ll also play portions of the interview with Gunnar Svensson (Magnus’ Dad) about the 2014 draft and men like Nylander, Vrana and Pettersson. TSN 1260, 10 this morning, contact via text at 10-1260 or twitter @Lowetide_ See you on the radio!

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

114 Responses to "2014 DRAFT: TOP 30"

  1. thejonrmcleod says:

    FYI, most of Ehlers’ even strength scoring was done apart from Drouin. He was usually on a line with Brent Andrews and Andrew Ryan. Since Drouin always played the full two minutes of every power play, Ehlers might have inflated PP numbers.

  2. Lowetide says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    FYI, most of Ehlers’ even strength scoring was done apart from Drouin. He was usually on a line with Brent Andrews and Andrew Ryan. Since Drouin always played the full two minutes of every power play, Ehlers might have inflated PP numbers.

    Good to know. I like his 287 shots, and his production is across the board:

    EV: 63, 29-30-59
    PP: 63, 13-23-36
    PK: 63, 7-2-9

  3. Henry says:

    Lowetide: Good to know. I like his 287 shots, and his production is across the board:

    EV: 63, 29-30-59
    PP: 63, 13-23-36
    PK: 63,7-2-9

    Lowetide,

    That spread of numbers looks like Jari Kurri.

  4. John Chambers says:

    I watched a couple of games in the Ana -LA series from the 13th row. The Ducks throw out big-bodied forwards shift after shift after shift.

    Now they’re going to take a Ritchie or Perlini or Virtanen who will play in the show in ’15-’16, and will put up digits alongside Perry and Getzlaf soon thereafter.

    Big forwards to win battles, mobile defense who can skate and move the puck. That’s a formula that seems to be working.

  5. Henry says:

    Does anyone think that the dearth of highly ranked defensemen in the draft may inflate the trade value of the Oilers excess developing defensemen?

  6. flyfish1168 says:

    LT I didn’t get a chance to listen to your interview with Magnus’s father. But did he make any comments about Magnus’s progress int St. Louis? and if he see his son back in St. Louis this September?

  7. Henry says:

    John Chambers:
    I watched a couple of games in the Ana -LA series from the 13th row. The Ducks throw out big-bodied forwards shift after shift after shift.

    Now they’re going to take a Ritchie or Perlini or Virtanen who will play in the show in ’15-’16, and will put up digits alongside Perry and Getzlaf soon thereafter.

    Big forwards to win battles, mobile defense who can skate and move the puck. That’s a formula that seems to be working.

    Yes, Anaheim is the sort of team that should wear you out after getting a lead. It is particularly impressive that LA could come back against that team.

    Teams like that are also why I worry about taking Grabovski as the new 2C. He is a nice player, but pretty svelt.

  8. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    LT I didn’t get a chance to listen to your interview with Magnus’s father. But did he make any comments about Magnus’s progress int St. Louis? and if he see his son back in St. Louis this September?

    We did talk about that yes. He said (and you have to listen to my show because I’m being nice here) that Magnus loved Edmonton and was surprised and disappointed with the trade. However, he enjoyed St. Louis and Gunnar said he enjoyed the experience and now thinks it was for the better.

    There’s a portion of the interview that I won’t play in which Gunnar talks about Kane and the ‘Hawks. Crazy funny and great live radio.

  9. Maverick says:

    LT, If we are taking votes as to who we hope the Oilers select I think Draisaitl would be the right pick.

    In regards to the top 30, last week on Monday when Dustin was guest hosting, Mark Edwards was on the show and make a few remarks about Robby Fabbri as he has watched him since bantam. Fabbri might be the wild card in the draft, high as 9 or he could be the slider of the draft.

  10. nycoil says:

    Here’s a very nice blog post from a Panthers site on Ehlers.
    Worth reading the whole thing, but: Ehlers mostly played away from Drouin. He had the best rookie QMJHL season since Crosby. His skating is compared to Pavel Bure. He plays PK as well and is committed to D. Like Drouin, he is too light at the moment and likely needs another year in junior to add weight. Tallon may be using Nylander as a smoke screen and Ehlers is who he wants. This would add to the trade down scenario: Down to 6 with Vancouver? Edler + #6 for #1? Nucks take Ekblad, Buffalo Reinhart, Edmonton Draisaitl, Calgary Bennett, Isles Dal Colle and Tallon gets his Dane Kane at #6?

    https://cats2thecup.wordpress.com/2014/04/25/dont-overlook-the-electric-ehlers/

    Also, I see Ritchie dropping a little on account of the weight issue.

  11. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide,

    LT was the interview with Gunner played on Saturday or Sunday?

  12. nycoil says:

    By the way, Drouin’s assists on Ehlers’ 49 goals this year are as follows:
    5 v 5: 6
    5 v 4: 7
    4 v 5: 4

    Satisfied he isn’t a product of Drouin.

  13. mumbai max says:

    LT, could you please put the previous weeks ranking in brackets (a la power rankings) to add an element of drama Thanks.

  14. FastOil says:

    Henry:
    Does anyone think that the dearth of highly ranked defensemen in the draft may inflate the trade value of the Oilers excess developing defensemen?

    I would think so.

    As for size, the semi finals all were very high tempo. Boston couldn’t handle the Habs tempo and quickness despite being likely the better team. Perhaps there were injuries, but the result remains the same.

    LA came out on top because surprisingly they could almost skate with the Hawks and goalies were a wash. Games 5 and 6 where the Kings were seemingly trying to hit them out of the building they lost. Chicago had an unbelievable amount of time with the puck, cycled well despite the big LA players, but had a lot of trouble generating quality chances from that. No one in front of the net, like the Oilers.

    In the end LA was the more positionally disciplined team, their offensive D not giving up as much in the D zone, and talent and goaltending being fairly equal the better team won. I was going for the Hawks, finally choosing them because they are most like the Oilers, hoping MacT and Lowe would see a more finesse team win it and lose interest in hiring big bodies that can’t play. Hopefully the Slats connection has their attention east.

    The other main point to me is the lack of centre depth on the Hawks. This is very likely, as with the Oilers, where the breakdowns are originating and why to my eye they had trouble generating quality chances unless Toews was on the ice.

  15. Rondo says:

    Sam Bennett unable to do 1 pull-up needs some context. Were his arms jelly just before he tried. I don’t know

    Andy O’Brien who is Bennett’s trainer also trains Crosby and other elite athletes must have been aware of the disciplines in the combine.

    If you say a pull-up has nothing to do with hockey, than the fact he does not have much upper body strength has nothing to do with hockey.

    Strength is a skill and I’m sure this episode will motivate him. Elite athletes are super competitive with everything, why did he not practise a pull-up?

    That said if he is available at #3 I take him.

  16. speeds says:

    Is there too much offense in DeAngelo for 30 teams to pass on him, LT?

  17. Bag of Pucks says:

    Was reading the Hockey News Draft Preview over the weekend and the verbal in the scouting report for Ho-Sang was pretty dire. Attitude wise, an anonymous scout actually compared him to Schremp!

  18. Racki says:

    Lowetide.. This is important….. How can we expect Bennett to pull himself up off the bench if he can’t do a pull up? He will lay there like a beached turtle laying on its back. Will he have the strength to lift his stick above his head during goal celebrations?

  19. Woodguy says:

    Some interesting FancyStats info this morning from Adam Grez (@AGretz)


    Adam Gretz @AGretz ·
    Over the past three years the Stanley Cup Finalists have finished 10th, 12th, 1st, 5th, 9th and 13th in total points in the league.

    Adam Gretz @AGretz · 8m
    Those same teams finished 1st, 6th, 1st, 4th, 4th, and 11th in FenClose.

    Next time someone tells you that “you are who the standings say you are, please point out that its correct, but using the FenClose standing is a better one to use.

    Also,

    Frequent Lowedown with Lowetide guest Travis Yost has been tracking results of betting on the playoffs using the FenClose from the last 20 games of the season as his guide:

    Travis Yost @TravisHeHateMe · 12h
    Score-Adjusted Fenwick% last twenty now 11-3 picking winners this postseason, and 72-31 since 2007.

    Montreal beating Tampa and Boston was two of those 3 losses. The other was Ducks over DAL (I think)

  20. pboy says:

    So what established stars might be rumoured to be available this summer?

    Patrick Marleau
    Joe Thornton
    Dion Phaneuf
    Brad Richards
    Mike Richards
    Eric Staal
    Sam Gagner
    Dustin Byfuglien
    Evander Kane
    Andrew Ladd

    Who knows if these guys are all available or not but there’s too much smoke for there not to be something on at least a few of these players. Hopefully MacT is able to transform this organization because if not, this should be the last summer he has the car keys. It’s shit or get off the pot time here in Edmonton.

  21. spoiler says:

    pboy: So what established stars might be rumoured to be available this summer? Patrick MarleauJoe ThorntonDion PhaneufBrad RichardsMike RichardsEric StaalSam GagnerDustin ByfuglienEvander KaneAndrew LaddWho knows if these guys are all available or not but there’s too much smoke for there not to be something on at least a few of these players. Hopefully MacT is able to transform this organization because if not, this should be the last summer he has the car keys. It’s shit or get off the pot time here in Edmonton.

    I think you can add Kris Letang to that list. Kesler, if you are on his list. James Neal. Brad Marchand. The Schenns (not established stars, but Brayden has pedigree). MA Fleury. Hiller, NIemi. Not sure there has been much smoke around Ladd or Kane’s names.

    Edit: Add Mike Green too.

  22. Yeti says:

    Rondo,

    Rondo – if Sam Bennett is this frickin’ good when he can’t do a pull up, imagine how good he’ll be when he can do one.

  23. spoiler says:

    From Matheson: the NY Islanders won’t trade prospect Griffin Reinhart to the Oilers for the third overall pick, thinks he’ll play on the Isles blueline next season…Believes the Panthers want a top-four defenseman from any of the teams directly behind them in the draft who want the first overall pick. Unless the Oilers would deal Justin Schultz, Matheson doesn’t see them getting that pick.

    That pretty much eliminates most teams from moving up except maybe the Laffs. Maybe the Dys.

  24. spoiler says:

    If Tallon is looking for a top 4 Dman (+ your 1st) in return for the #1 overall, is it safe to say they are very probably taking Ekblad?

  25. nycoil says:

    spoiler,

    Hence my post above…Edler + #6 for #1?

  26. spoiler says:

    nycoil: spoiler, Hence my post above…Edler + #6 for #1?

    Yeah, I think that stands a good chance. I mean, the Canucks would much rather deal Garrison I’m sure (and I doubt FLA would take him), but they could put Edler into play. I guess it depends on their plan and what they’re going to do with Kesler. Personally I hope they stretch out trying to be a contender. Rebuilds are easier and quicker to accomplish the sooner you recognize you need one.

  27. Racki says:

    spoiler:
    If Tallon is looking for a top 4 Dman (+ your 1st) in return for the #1 overall, is it safe to say they are very probably taking Ekblad?

    I’ve been saying all along.. Florida has good forward depth. Really good. They’ve got a few good D, but nothing like ekblad potential and rumor has them souring on Kulikov.

  28. spoiler says:

    The flip side to the Ehlers linemates question is that he was beating up on soft comp compared to guys who were their team’s target, like Draisaitl and Reinhart. Doesn’t mean he isn’t a good player, just not in the top echelon.

  29. Bar_Qu says:

    spoiler,

    As long as they keep Tortorella, I don’ t care what they do.

    All success ends with Torts.

  30. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: Some interesting FancyStats info this morning from Adam Grez (@AGretz)Adam Gretz @AGretz ·Over the past three years the Stanley Cup Finalists have finished 10th, 12th, 1st, 5th, 9th and 13th in total points in the league.Adam Gretz @AGretz · 8mThose same teams finished 1st, 6th, 1st, 4th, 4th, and 11th in FenClose.Next time someone tells you that “you are who the standings say you are, please point out that its correct, but using the FenClose standing is a better one to use.Also, Frequent Lowedown with Lowetide guest Travis Yost has been tracking results of betting on the playoffs using the FenClose from the last 20 games of the season as his guide:Travis Yost @TravisHeHateMe · 12hScore-Adjusted Fenwick% last twenty now 11-3 picking winners this postseason, and 72-31 since 2007.Montreal beating Tampa and Boston was two of those 3 losses. The other was Ducks over DAL (I think)

    Great stuff thx!

  31. spoiler says:

    Racki: I’ve been saying all along.. Florida has good forward depth. Really good. They’ve got a few good D, but nothing like ekblad potential and rumor has them souring on Kulikov.

    I don’t think you will find much disagreement in these parts. I think Buffalo would love him too. Unlike last year when Jones was up against some true offensive powerhouses, Ekblad doesn’t have the same level of competition in this draft, plus he fills a team need on all of the top 3 drafting teams. No way he slides. I have him at #1 anyways.

    Now in consideration of that… would Buffalo trade Erhoff just to move up one spot? I am betting Erhoff is Tallon’s target. That is a wonderful contract for a cash poor team like Florida.

  32. spoiler says:

    Erhoff, Ehlers, Ekblad and Edler… Jesus.

    And I thought after the picture in LT’s article and the KDays google ad that today would be brought to you by the letter “K”. I was wrong.

    Bar_Qu: As long as they keep Tortorella, I don’ t care what they do.
    All success ends with Torts.

    I’m in pain and this still made me laugh.

  33. Truth says:

    Bennett has to be injured. You cannot possibly be a healthy high level athlete and not be able to do a single pull up. I just do not believe it.

    I did play with a couple of players that were unable to do a pull up. Both because their shoulders were in rough shape and needed surgery if they ever wanted to do a pull up again… It would only make sense Bennett lands on the Oilers and misses the entire next year of Junior due to shoulder surgery. Would that drop him out of the top 4, if real?

  34. TheOtherJohn says:

    Not sure that Sam Gagner is an established star

  35. Racki says:

    Truth,

    Why wouldn’t Bennett just admit to being hurt though? Fear that shoulder probs would reduce his draft ranking? Which is worse, do you think, looking like a weakening or having a shoulder problem? I don’t know

  36. spoiler says:

    Truth: It would only make sense Bennett lands on the Oilers and misses the entire next year of Junior due to shoulder surgery. Would that drop him out of the top 4, if real?

    Gotta think surgery and a year off hockey would drop him out of the top 3. Beyond that, hard to say.

    Racki: Truth, Why wouldn’t Bennett just admit to being hurt though?

    Gotta agree with this though.

  37. nycoil says:

    Racki,

    If you haven’t had a chance to read that Florida blog post I linked, there are some nice quotes from Tallon himself talking about their need for a sniper. I think Ekblad is BPA, but there may be some truth to the rumours Tallon is looking at a forward. He may want to find his Patrick Kane to go on the wings with Bjugstad, Barkov, Huberdeau (when he moves to C eventually).

    Going to be very interesting. If everyone stands pat, Ekblad could fall to the Oil. But I see another team trading up ahead of Edmonton to get him, meaning someone is moving up to #1 because I can’t see Buffalo trading down.

  38. nycoil says:

    Racki,

    Injury would be worse. Easily. The team that drafts him 6th cause he couldn’t do a pull up can send him a pull-up bar for $100 including shipping for the summer, and tell him to work on nothing but pull-ups. No skating or shooting or puck-control drills ;)

  39. hunter1909 says:

    1 – Aaron “Biff” Ekblad comes with a single question mark… can Biff back up his high school bully act in the pros?

    2 – Sam Reinhart… 100% champion type WTF whoever passes on him! Hands down the best available player, imo.

    3 – Leon Draisaitl… If Reinhart’s gone this is my 2nd pick – then put him together with Yakupov to form an unforgettable “Great Patriotic War” line

    4 – Sam Bennett… 1940′s Chicago Blackhawks type player. Probably kills Oilers regularly if he goes west, lol.

  40. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    just to put the numbers down as viewable:

    Perlini (LW) 6’3″ 205
    ALL: 58 34-37-71 (1.224 PPG)
    EV: 58 16-17-33 (0.569 PPG)
    PP: 58 16-20-36 (0.620 PPG)
    SH: 58 2-0-2

    Virtanen (LW) 6’1″ 210
    ALL: 71 45-26-71 (1.00 PPG)
    EV: 71 33-19-52 (0.732 PPG)
    PP 71 10-7-17 (0.239 PPG)
    SH 71 2-0-2

    [EDIT: I missed the SH goals the first time; adjusted the numbers)

    A couple of points:

    1) Virtanen is clearly an EV scorer and a goal scorer at that.
    2) Perlini has the better OV boxcars and has some balance to his EV/PP game
    3) Virtanen should see a jump in numbers with PP TOI
    4) (If you follow Vollman) Perlini should get a sizeable boost for league difference

    I’m not sure how much credit to give to 4, and I’m not sure how much of a boost we should give Virtanen for missing PP time (a fair amount I’d wager… though he looks like he lacks set-up capabilities and one wonders if the goal scoring is repeatable, even with PP time)

    I really am at a loss as to where to peg these two in relation to one another, but I agree with the above that they belong together in the ranks.

  41. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think powerplay points should almost be ignored. “Balance” in your game as you put it above is a bad thing.

    That makes Virtanen look good to me.

  42. jbfuzz says:

    Bold and awful prediction time:

    1) Ekblad falls to 3. Oilers take him.
    2) Oilers provide a massive overpay to Niskanen.
    3) Oilers trade Petry to STL for Berglund.

    No idea where Gagner goes. Oilers bottom 5 again next year.

  43. spoiler says:

    nycoil: If you haven’t had a chance to read that Florida blog post I linked, there are some nice quotes from Tallon himself talking about their need for a sniper. I think Ekblad is BPA, but there may be some truth to the rumours Tallon is looking at a forward. He may want to find his Patrick Kane to go on the wings with Bjugstad, Barkov, Huberdeau (when he moves to C eventually).

    I think those quotes are why plan A for Tallon is to find a top 4 defenseman who can play now and then add a shooting forward with the traded pick. I think plan B though is to draft Ekblad.

    I will be surprised if Huberdeau is ever permanently moved to center. Has about as much chance as Hall at C.

  44. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: just to put the numbers down as viewable:Perlini (LW) 6’3″ 205ALL: 58 34-37-71 (1.224 PPG)EV: 58 18-17-35 (0.603 PPG)PP: 58 16-20-36 (0.620 PPG)SH: 58 2-0-2Virtanen (LW) 6’1″ 210ALL: 71 45-26-71 (1.00 PPG)EV: 71 35-19-54 (0.760 PPG)PP 71 10-7-17 (0.239 PPG)SH 71 2-0-2A couple of points:1) Virtanen is clearly an EV scorer and a goal scorer at that.2) Perlini has the better OV boxcars and has some balance to his EV/PP game3) Virtanen should see a jump in numbers with PP TOI4) (If you follow Vollman) Perlini should get a sizeable boost for league differenceI’m not sure how much credit to give to 4, and I’m not sure how much of a boost we should give Virtanen for missing PP time (a fair amount I’d wager… though he looks like he lacks set-up capabilities and one wonders if the goal scoring is repeatable, even with PP time)I really am at a loss as to where to peg these two in relation to one another, but I agree with the above that they belong together in the ranks.

    Rom, do you have Ritchie’s numbers handy?

  45. HiddenDarts says:

    Just read:

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-Cordell/RJ-Umberger-For-Sam-Gagner/178/60377

    Obviously about a Umberger-Gagner trade, and includes this hilarious line:

    “If Jarmo Kekalainen can somehow pull this trade off, the Blue Jackets would be that much closer to becoming a legitimate contender. Meanwhile, the Oilers would once again set themselves back as a franchise.”

    Love it!

  46. Truth says:

    Racki, hunter1909,

    I think weakling over injury would be preferred by scouts.

    Obviously I am just speculating about the injury, but it is too close to what I have witnessed myself. A guy can bench 250 lbs like nothing but his shoulder range of motion with a pull up is so limited or painful he can’t do it.

    Could be a number of different things, much like Yakupov in his draft season Bennett may have come back from injury too soon or played though an injury in an attempt to maintain is high draft ranking and he doesn’t actually need surgery to fix the issue. Or he may have a bad shoulder from way back and will require surgery at some point to fix it, much like Hall and RNH. Would Hall have went 1st overall if it was known surgery was required? Would RNH? I think the idea of taking a kid with injury would at best be a tie-breaker from selecting someone else in that spot.

    If he claims to be uninjured a team looking to take Bennett high could look at it positively. If he’s not hurt and he can’t do a single pull-up, yet accomplished what he has, what is his ceiling after he puts in some time at the gym? But I still cannot believe weakling. Does anyone know of a 17 year old hockey player that wouldn’t be able to do one pull up? Not to mention a 17 year old CHL star and future NHLer. Doesn’t happen, not possible.

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Rom, do you have Ritchie’s numbers handy?

    Ritchie (LW) 6’3″ 229

    ALL: 61 39-35-74 (1.213 PPG)
    EV: 61 27-26-53 (0.8688 PPG)
    PP: 61 11-8-19 (0.311 PPG)
    SH 61 1-1-2

    [EDIT: missed the SH goals on Perlini and Virtanen -- counted them twice -- earlier. fixed now]

  48. speeds says:

    spoiler,

    Just a heads up that I did reply to you in the “Trader Sunday” thread (not sure if you saw it or not, that thread was buried pretty quickly), my apologies for not getting back to you when I’d thought I would.

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think powerplay points should almost be ignored.“Balance” in your game as you put it above is a bad thing.

    That makes Virtanen look good to me.

    I lean that way too… but I’m not in a position to make the case so strongly. I’d like to see some data to support weighing EV over PP so strongly.

    obviously, you weigh EV more… but I’m not sure how much more.

    And, without shot totals, I wonder about a guy like Virtanen and his ability to repeat. was this a shooting % mirage? why wasn’t he getting PP TOI? why are his assist totals so low?

    At any rate, I find the two players interesting test cases for a variety of questions…

    ———–

    and, that Ritchie looks better at Evens than I expected. Add to that the OHL bonus (Vollman) … and I can see the interest he is garnering… still looks pudgy and oafish to me… haha BIAS!

  50. hunter1909 says:

    NEW CUP FORMAT FOR NHL LOSER FRANCHISES LIKE THE OILERS

    THE Lowest 8 teams in the NHL

    PLAY

    THE highest 8 teams in the AHL

    IN a Series of 1 game playoffs; going from 16 teams, then 8, then 4 then the final for the new cup…all series drawn from a hat (English FA Cup style)

    OFFER Money to the participating teams 50/50 based on gate receipts etc (makes AHLers gleeful to collect cash, makes NHLers laughing stocks if they get booted by AHLers etc)

  51. John Chambers says:

    hunter1909,

    Do you remember when Eberle, Hall, Nuge, and Schultz tore the ass off the AHL in fall of 2012?

    Maybe dickhead bloggers from Minnesota and Toronto would stop calling the Oilers an AHL team?

  52. spoiler says:

    Thanks, Rom. Thanks too, speeds, I will try to get to it today.

    Romulus Apotheosis: still looks pudgy and oafish to me… haha BIAS!

    It’s even worse when he opens his mouth.

  53. spoiler says:

    With regards to Bennett possibly having an injury and what that might do to his draft selection, let’s keep in mind that Virtanen will be out 4-6 months with shoulder surgery. I don’t think it has impacted his ranking much.

  54. Racki says:

    spoiler:
    With regards to Bennett possibly having an injury and what that might do to his draft selection, let’s keep in mind that Virtanen will be out 4-6 months with shoulder surgery. I don’t think it has impacted his ranking much.

    True.. Galchenyuk ‘s went up, with a season mostly lost to knee injury.

  55. stevezie says:

    Caramel Obvious,
    Romulus Apotheosis,
    I agree that you should weigh SV a lot more than PP, but I think it still begs the question, if the guy is so good at scoring, why can’t he do it on the PP when scoring is supposed to be easy? If it’s a matter of playing time, why isn’t the coach using such a great weapon?

    I remember when Burrows became the first player ever to score thirty goals without a single PP marker. It was less an amazing accomplishment than a bizarre one.

  56. FastOil says:

    These points are made by Justin Bourne regarding the Rangers beating the Kings, but for me it is what I hope the Oilers think about when drafting:

    “You have to be able to skate. It’s as simple as that.

    You can have the hardest shot in the world, but if you’re not fast enough to get the puck to use it you’re useless. You can have the best hands in the game, but if you’re not fast enough to create chances it doesn’t matter. You can’t do anything without skating well, and boy, is that not an issue for the New York Rangers.”

    and

    “One of hockey’s best coaches, Mike Babcock, constantly talks about speed. When his team loses, it’s because they didn’t “play fast enough.” When he assembled Team Canada, he prioritized speed. He knows it puts pressure on your opponent, it creates chaos, and that creates opportunities. It’s exhausting to face.”

    If the league keeps calling obstruction it will only get faster. I think this is especially important as the draft rounds progress. A lower chance guy with mobility issues is basically a wasted pick.

  57. nycoil says:

    Racki: True.. Galchenyuk ‘s went up, with a season mostly lost toknee injury.

    ?? Galchenyuk’s ranking dropped from 1B with Yak before the season started to #5 in McKenzie’s final list. Habs took him in the middle at 3.

    Agree that Galchenyuk’s example (becoming a great player anyway) probably has teams now thinking if Virtanen is their BPA to not pass on him in case he comes back to bite them.

  58. spoiler says:

    speeds: I think if you can find some players where a team might be willing to move a player, you look into that. If a player is overpaid on a short term, and the other team wants to move him, you look at it depending on cost. One guy that I’ve haven’t really much looked into, but might fit that bill, could be Kennedy in SJ, who was a HS in the playoffs.

    I think that’s what you look to do today, and as always if there are trades that make sense, you look at those.

    In terms of UFA’s, how many you need depends on who you get. If EDM decided they were going to allocate a big portion of their available cap room to Stastny and Stralman, they may or may not get both, but getting guys that can play that high up the ladder changes your other targets. For instance, if you happened to get Stralman, that might change your thoughts on keeping Klefbom vs. a scenario where you sign Greene and decide to sign a vet in place of Klefbom, leaving him in the AHL, unless a useful vet D shakes free in late July/August for little money.

    Just read your reply, speeds, thank you. I agree that what happens dictates what you do. I think if you are the Oiler GM you need some kind of plan now (with various different paths) on who to target and how achievable that target is. I do think we are going to see a more trade active summer than in the past and there should be some gems that can be acquired that way.

    The danger is to go into the UFA season with serious holes and having to settle for secondary and tertiary names because you couldn’t sign your targets.

    Flyers need cap space and there is almost as much smoke around Brayden Schenn’s name as there is Gagner’s, so there’s another player I would take a serious look at.

    Kennedy’s name has come up a lot on this blog too. Kennedy is a 4th liner, albeit better than any 4th liner we have bar maybe Arcobello. So what do you give up for a 4th liner eating up 2.3M in cap space? Would we be better served to sign Brendan Morrow for less cap space and no assets going the other way? Or say Jesse WInchester or Mike D’Agostini? Or leave the spots open for your own developing prospects and/or whomever we pick at 3?

    I know we are probably going to be adding another team’s bad salary at some point this summer, but do you want that bad salary to be a 4th liner or 2nd liner/Dman? Probably depends on how bad the overpays are.

    I think NYR will buy B. Richards out to sign Stralman and their other key FAs.

  59. Racki says:

    nycoil: ?? Galchenyuk’s ranking dropped from 1B with Yak before the season started to #5 in McKenzie’s final list. Habs took him in the middle at 3.

    Agree that Galchenyuk’s example (becoming a great player anyway) probably has teams now thinking if Virtanen is their BPA to not pass on him in case he comes back to bite them.

    Yes, sorry, I was referring to how the habs picked him ahead of what he was ranked in the final draft rankings.

  60. VOR says:

    LT,

    I can’t answer your question about Fleury who also underwhelms me. Other than to say he looks like an NHL defenseman and sadly some scouts still award style points. Kid looks like he can play. Kids who fit the ideal physical profile and lack weaknesses that attract the eye are far easier to mistakenly project far beyond their existing level of play.

    I think some of the same thinking comes into play on McKeown. He may well be the best skater in this year’s draft. I think that causes people to ignore that he isn’t exactly a dominant D-man. How amazing he looks skating causes them to forget it is actually helpful if you can play the game as well as you can skate.
    ………………………………………………
    Stevezie – I have always wondered how you figure out if it matters if a kid is putting up a lot of his scoring on the power play, short handed or at evens? So in pragmatic terms is Perlini with his blinding speed and skill on the power play a better or worse prospect than Ritchie with his size and EV strength scoring skills? For that matter is Ehlers ability as a penalty killer a tell one way or another?

  61. Caramel Obvious says:

    stevezie:
    Caramel Obvious,
    Romulus Apotheosis,
    I agree that you should weigh SV a lot more than PP, but I think it still begs the question, if the guy is so good at scoring, why can’t he do it on the PP when scoring is supposed to be easy? If it’s a matter of playing time, why isn’t the coach using such a great weapon?

    I remember when Burrows became the first player ever to score thirty goals without a single PP marker. It was less an amazing accomplishment than a bizarre one.

    Because powerplay points are a function of opportunity, role/design, and shooting percentage, far more than even strength play.

    There are variations on this. Defensemen with big shots from the point, or who are excellent on the one-timer, or Tomas Holmstrom provide real, added, value beyond what other guys do. But this is of vanishing significance in comparison to even strength play. At best, a tie-breaker.

    Power play success is mostly luck.

  62. regwald says:

    Two friends of mine (a husband and wife) were trying to get into the City of Edmonton police. He was in the army, she swam, taught swim lessons and tended bar.

    Doing the fit test the husband did well and knocked off 14 pull-ups. The woman, kicked ass and did 21. We all bowed and applauded her.

  63. spoiler says:

    LT…

    I am curious about your re-ranking of Reinhart. If he’s projected to be an even better winger than center, how does that get him nicked? Do you feel the other top 3 forwards will be as good centers as Reinhart will be a winger?

  64. Pouzar says:

    nycoil,

    Truth: Bennett has to be injured. You cannot possibly be a healthy high level athlete and not be able to do a single pull up. I just do not believe it. I did play with a couple of players that were unable to do a pull up. Both because their shoulders were in rough shape and needed surgery if they ever wanted to do a pull up again… It would only make sense Bennett lands on the Oilers and misses the entire next year of Junior due to shoulder surgery. Would that drop him out of the top 4, if real?

    The wide grip chin up is not an easy thing to do. When I was that age I could bench press my weight for multiple reps with ease but couldn’t do a chin up to save my life. It takes practice really since nothing really simulates that move. It really is a skill. After a couple months of several “partner holding my feet” reps I was able to build up to 10 reps unaided. Takes time.

    But Bennett does have girlie arms. :)

  65. jake70 says:

    On the pull-up.

    I am sitting here next to a physio at work. Good timing. Just asked her how this is possible an elite young player can’t do a pull-up.

    A few of her comments:

    -Pull up is an “upper body exercise”, multiple muscle groups involved.
    -Shoulder injury. Present or past injury if she had to guess a first cause. Lots of articulations in and around the shoulder. They stabilize the upper back to allow the lats to do the work.
    -Weak core muscles?
    -Weak lats, she says the lats are the muscle group the does the lifting during the move.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    here’s Calgary’s stats’ page:

    http://whl.ca/stats/show/type/skaters/ls_season/245/ls_team/202

    so… the PP goals are pretty spread out (5 guys with 10 or more PP goals)

    here they are (PP only)

    Brassart 70 11-20-31
    Chase 70 10-19-29
    Rankin 64 10-11-21
    Tambellini 31 11-11-21
    Virtanen 71 10-7-17

    In terms of goals, he’s got (basically) as many as the best PP scorers on his team. So, I think we can make a case that he was getting a fair amount of PP TOI relative to his teammates.

    And, if you look at his goal vs assist ratio at EVs vs PP they line up pretty well:

    EV goals 63% of his points; Assists 37%
    PP goals 59% of PP points; Assists 41%

    This doesn’t look like a guy that was given the short end of the stick in terms of PP TOI. It looks like a guy that can’t make plays, but can score goals (which is obviously more valuable).

    My concern, remains in light of this… is this a shooting percentage thing?

    last year he had 15 even strength goals (1 PP) in 62 games.

    ———
    Also, Tambellini looks like a solid pick for the Rangers. Still would have liked the Oil to take Steve’s kid, but I’m happy for his dad.

    Went on an incredible PP run for them. May be the best PP player on that team.

    21 PP points in 31 games.

  67. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Drafting Tambellini’s kid would ensure that he gets brought back into the organization, so no thank you. Lol

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious: Because powerplay points are a function of opportunity, role/design,and shooting percentage, far more than even strength play.

    There are variations on this.Defensemen with big shots from the point, or who are excellent on the one-timer, or Tomas Holmstrom provide real, added, value beyond what other guys do.But this is of vanishing significance in comparison to even strength play.At best, a tie-breaker.

    Power play success is mostly luck.

    I wouldn’t agree that PP success is “mostly luck” but completely agree that it is more luck-prone.

    At any rate, (though you are responding to Stevezie), my question isn’t concerning the philosophical justification for weighing EV ahead of PP… that’s a given.

    the question I’d like an empirical answer to, is what is the data-based weight we ought to give to the difference.

    Discounting PP scoring entirely seems crazy to me. There’s no way the difference in predicting success is that wide (or so my intuition tells me, I’m open to being persuaded)

  69. nycoil says:

    Pouzar,

    Not sure if this reply was meant for me? I said if he drops in the draft cause he can’t do a pull-up, that’s silly.
    I do them wide grip every other day as well; if it were really a concern he can buy a pull-up bar and practice. Or, go surfing. The paddling really helps the lats. In other words, it’s not a concern. An injury would be something of note.

  70. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Drafting Tambellini’s kid would ensure that he gets broughtback into the organization, so no thank you. Lol

    I don’t have any problem with the man as a father cheering his son if he played for the Oilers.

    The man seems like a pretty good guy. probably even a pretty good hockey guy if put in a position to succeed (something he never figured out how to do himself as a manager).

  71. nycoil says:

    http://www.capgeek.com/blackhawks/

    Just looking at this and something decent will shake loose from Chicago this summer as they will need to re-sign Toews and Kane to 8m+ extensions before they get to UFA, and Saad as well.

    The Chicago Vollman charts just look silly…all blue and every line except the 4th has > 50% offensive zone starts.

  72. spoiler says:

    nycoil: Just looking at this and something decent will shake loose from Chicago this summer as they will need to re-sign Toews and Kane to 8m+ extensions before they get to UFA, and Saad as well.

    There’s no pressure this summer. Next summer however, maybe. Depends on what the cap does but I don’t think they will be in the same boat as they were in 2010.

  73. rickithebear says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Not sure that Sam Gagner is an established star

    Since the lockout:
    U25 Forwards first 5 years of production.
    Gagner is 15th with Couture.
    Better than E. kane; Krejci; Lucic and on and on!
    His EVG is there with O’rielly Okposo.

    He is 4.03 PKga/60 when given real pk time top 30 in the league

    6.83 PPGF/60 with Varying

    when we look at the guys who played wing with him in his 7 years.
    Do they get better results with him or without.

    The with Gagner’s 17/25
    Nilsson
    Hemsky
    Penner EVEN
    MP
    Jones
    Cole
    POS
    MAP
    Brule
    Pisani
    Smyth
    Hartikainen
    Kotalik
    Stone
    Potulny
    Yak
    Jeonsuu
    Lander

    The wthouts 8/25
    Hall
    Eberle
    Omark
    Moreau
    Stortini
    Stone
    Perron
    Gazdic

  74. Pouzar says:

    nycoil: Pouzar, Not sure if this reply was meant for me? I said if he drops in the draft cause he can’t do a pull-up, that’s silly.I do them wide grip every other day as well; if it were really a concern he can buy a pull-up bar and practice. Or, go surfing. The paddling really helps the lats. In other words, it’s not a concern. An injury would be something of note.

    I agree with all that. If the kid wanted to I am sure he’d be doin reps with a 45 lb plate strapped to his waist after a few months.

  75. spoiler says:

    Sounds like Andrew Alberts retired from pro hockey today. Not sure what that means for the Canucks’ plans.

  76. fifthcartel says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I saw somewhere that the Hitmen scored a ridiculous amount of goals and that could play into Virtanen could benefiting from a higher shooting percentage, like you pointed out.

    Although, I thought a lot of players in juniors saw some sort of ridiculous shooting percentage simply because higher scoring and poorer quality goaltenders. 35 even strength goals is something to watch, though, I just think that would be a risky top 10 pick and thankfully Edmonton shouldn’t be in a position to even think about it.

    If the CHL had more stats like TOI, etc available it could be very interesting to compare between draft eligible prospects.

  77. rickithebear says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I wouldn’t agree that PP success is “mostly luck” but completely agree that it is more luck-prone.

    At any rate, (though you are responding to Stevezie), my question isn’t concerning the philosophical justification for weighing EV ahead of PP… that’s a given.

    the question I’d like an empirical answer to, is what is the data-based weight we ought to give to the difference.

    Discounting PP scoring entirely seems crazy to me. There’s no way the difference in predicting success is that wide (or so my intuition tells me, I’m open to being persuaded)

    Ask yourself will This player get PP time over our Player X.

  78. nycoil says:

    spoiler,

    They’re at $66M with 11 forwards, 7 defensemen and one goalie. Going to be tight. Likely we see a trade or two as early as this summer.

  79. stevezie says:

    Lowetide,

    You’re aware of the twisted cruelty in introducing a guest as one of the funniest you’ve ever had, and then saying you’re not going to play the funny part?

  80. russ99 says:

    nycoil,

    Here in Chi-town the fans are looking to dump Seabrook and Oduya and want a second line center.

    I’m not enough of a devils’ advocate to suggest Gagner… LOL

  81. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    rickithebear: Ask yourself will This player get PP time over our Player X.

    I don’t follow your question.

    By inference above, I showed that Virtanen was getting a lot of PP TOI.

    He’s in a 5-way tie for most PP goals on his team (if we collapse everyone at 10 or 11 into one box). And, his goals as a percentage of his total points ratio is the same at EVENS and on the PP.

    This guy didn’t suffer from a lack of PP TOI.

    He’s either an exceptional goal scorer, with poor play making ability, or a very lucky goal scorer with poor play making ability.

    (I’m inclined to suspect he’s something like both… very good (maybe not exceptional) and very lucky (but maybe not exceptionally so))

  82. Pouzar says:

    russ99: nycoil, Here in Chi-town the fans are looking to dump Seabrook and Oduya and want a second line center.I’m not enough of a devils’ advocate to suggest Gagner… LOL

    Seabrook? Wow. Bold.

  83. nycoil says:

    russ99,

    Well, that would take care of the Hawks’ achilles heel; no more 8 pt games against! ha ha

  84. spoiler says:

    nycoil: They’re at $66M with 11 forwards, 7 defensemen and one goalie. Going to be tight. Likely we see a trade or two as early as this summer.

    So they have $5M to sign two depth forwards and a backup goalie? I really don’t think that will be an issue.

    Philly, NYR, LA… even PItt, Boston and maybe TO have bigger cap issues than that.

  85. nycoil says:

    spoiler,

    I’m not arguing Chicago’s cap issues are worse than those teams’. I am making the case that they are going to want to free up some cap space this summer anyway because of bonuses. Should see Roszival or Oduya or Smith or Handzus etc shake loose. Not sure Oilers want to be involved with those guys anyway.

  86. spoiler says:

    nycoil: I’m not arguing Chicago’s cap issues are worse than those teams’. I am making the case that they are going to want to free up some cap space this summer anyway because of bonuses. Should see Roszival or Oduya or Smith or Handzus etc shake loose. Not sure Oilers want to be involved with those guys anyway.

    Why because of bonuses? It doesn’t look like bonuses are any sort of issue on that roster.

    Next summer, different story. And I’m not saying the Hawks won’t be proactive about it, heck they might be gauging Sharp’s trade value as we speak, but they have the time and space to do what they want to do and no pressure to do it now.

  87. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: He’s either an exceptional goal scorer, with poor play making ability, or a very lucky goal scorer with poor play making ability.

    I think we have to be very careful with what “poor” means here.

  88. spoiler says:

    Lowetide,

    So they have two great young centers and a great young winger but very little young and good on D, and nothing on the right side*… but they should take a center?

    Obviously from the comments this morning, Tallon would like to avoid Ekblad and pick a forward, but he wants a proven 2nd pairing guy to do it.

    Still curious about you nicking Reinhart.

    *Depending on how one feels about Gudbranson.

  89. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    LT…

    I am curious about your re-ranking of Reinhart.If he’s projected to be an even better winger than center, how does that get him nicked?Do you feel the other top 3 forwards will be as good centers as Reinhart will be a winger?

    I’m arriving at a lot of opinions. Reinhart is (imo) the most talented offensive player in the draft, full stop. I think he’ll go No. 2 overall, after Ekblad.

    Is he the best player available at No. 1? I don’t think he is.

    No. 2? I’m beginning to wonder, and moved Ekblad ahead. I wouldn’t take Ekblad No. 1, but might take him after Bennett. The top 5 is pretty even imo, and there are those who would argue for Ehlers and Nylander.

    That’s what June is about, figuring things out.

  90. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: I think we have to be very careful with what “poor” means here.

    if we add the caveat, “relative to his peers and considering his high prospect ranking” does that work for you?

    He ranks 127th in the WHL for total assists (we don’t know if these are 1st or 2nd) with 26.

    I think we can make some assumptions here that he’s below average for highly regarded forward prospects. But, I absolutely agree that we have to try and be careful here. any more thoughts would be welcome.

  91. Racki says:

    MacTavish needs to pick up that phone and mindf— Tallon into giving away that top pick without taking #3 back. Ekblad #1,then draisaitl (if there) #3. That would give me too much hope though, which is only setting me up for disappointment

  92. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Lowetide,

    Still curious about you nicking Reinhart.

    If Reinhart is a winger, he’s still the best offensive player, but what’s the gap between him and Nylander? Is it a lot? I don’t know that answer. I think Bennett, a center, can be a little shy offensively and still be worth more than Reinhart, also a center.

    If Reinhart is a winger? Gap widens, for me anyway. Supply and demand.

  93. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think we can make some assumptions here that he’s below average for highly regarded forward prospects.

    I’d agree with this, but not sure that below average translates into poor. It could be that he shoots a heckuva lot. Or that his linemates don’t. Or that his shooting percentage is so good, the ratio is more out of whack than normal.

    We might see his assist totals go up next year… if teams take away his shot more and he uses that strategy to pass to the opened up ice. Or maybe with better shooting linemates.

    We would also need to separate passing issues from vision issues.

    I’ve seen him a few times this winter and what I would say about those assist totals is that they confirm that he plays a very North-South game. Like an Erik Cole. Very little dipsy. No doodle.

  94. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I’m arriving at a lot of opinions. Reinhart is (imo) the most talented offensive player in the draft, full stop. I think he’ll go No. 2 overall, after Ekblad.
    Is he the best player available at No. 1? I don’t think he is.
    No. 2? I’m beginning to wonder, and moved Ekblad ahead. I wouldn’t take Ekblad No. 1, but might take him after Bennett. The top 5 is pretty even imo, and there are those who would argue for Ehlers and Nylander.
    That’s what June is about, figuring things out.

    Absolutely.

    It seems to me that some scouts are thinking he would have scored even more this year if he had played wing, and he already beat the two natural NHL centers at the NHLE game.

    However I think you are taking the Reinhart winger comments as confirmation of your assessment that he doesn’t have the same wide range of skills as Bennett or Draisaitl, and thus gets nicked. I was just looking to see if this was the case and it appears to be so. I wonder if he shouldn’t then slide behind Neon Leon too?

  95. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Is Reinhart more offensively talented than Ehlers or Nylander? I’m just posing the question because I could see either of them being the most offensively talented to come from this draft, but they seem more boom or bust than Reinhart, where your downside is likely a solid top 6 forward due to his high hockey IQ, decent size, and defensive qualities.

  96. nycoil says:

    spoiler,

    Sure, not trying to pick a fight here. They could wait for next summer, but I think they may be proactive about it and get started on some of it this summer. It should be an interesting summer with a decent amount of player movement among many good teams despite the UFA market looking lacklustre. It would be nice if MacT were there to benefit from someone’s cap concerns to acquire a good player for less than his normal value–exactly like the Perron-MPS+2nd trade.

  97. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: I’d agree with this, but not sure that below average translates into poor.It could be that he shoots a heckuva lot. Or that his linemates don’t. Or that his shooting percentage is so good, the ratio is more out of whack than normal.

    We might see his assist totals go up next year… if teams take away his shot more and he uses that strategy to pass to the opened up ice. Or maybe with better shooting linemates.

    We would also need to separate passing issues from vision issues.

    I’ve seen him a few times this winter and what I would say about those assist totals is that they confirm that he plays a very North-South game. Like an Erik Cole.

    The variables are hard to shake out for sure.

    If you look at the PP totals of the Hitmen I posted above, you see that Brassard and Chase both managed to distribute the puck pretty well on the PP.

    “Poor” maybe too strong. But the context here is top 15 draft pick. So, we need high bars to understand the player field.

  98. spoiler says:

    Racki: MacTavish needs to pick up that phone and mindf— Tallon into giving away that top pick without taking #3 back. Ekblad #1,then draisaitl (if there) #3. That would give me too much hope though, which is only setting me up for disappointment

    This draft is kind of meh. I don’t think I could spend assets to do that unless the asking price reflected the quality of the draft. Tallon knows this. That’s why he’s trying to get something for nothing. But its nice to hear he wants a quality defenseman and not a C like Schenn.

    Our goal should be to trade that #3 for a real player or two. Not add picks.

  99. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    Lowetide,

    Is Reinhart more offensively talented than Ehlers or Nylander? I’m just posing the question because I could see either of them being the most offensively talented to come from this draft, but they seem more boom or bust than Reinhart, where your downside is likely a solid top 6 forward due to his high hockey IQ, decent size, and defensive qualities.

    Don’t know. That’s what June is for? :-)

  100. Racki says:

    spoiler: This draft is kind of meh.I don’t think I could spend assets to do that unless the asking price reflected the quality of the draft. Tallon knows this. That’s why he’s trying to get something for nothing.But its nice to hear he wants a quality defenseman and not a C like Schenn.

    Our goal should be to trade that #3 for a real player or two. Not add picks.

    It lacks Tavares type talent, sure but I don’t think I’d go so far as to say there’s nothing there. The Oilers stand to get the #2c they need, plus a D man who could be their rock on the right side.. I’d do it. If #3 pick can be traded for an already pre-made NHL center or higher end D, I’d move it though. This seems fairly unlikely though.

  101. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: If Reinhart is a winger? Gap widens, for me anyway. Supply and demand.

    Ahh, but then this isn’t best player available but best value available–something I have been harping on for years, so I have to agree. I thought however, that we separated that quality from player rankings and considered it to be more “mock draft” territory? Anyways, thanks for the thought processes; it is appreciated.

  102. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Fantastic! Can keep me occupied since Rangers tickets are too expensive for me to afford/they aren’t the Oil so I’m not paying $1000+ for a nosebleed ticket!

    I think this draft is being underrated. If you just go off of NHLEs, the top players are in the range with Nuge, Mackinnon, Yakupov, Strome, Huberdeau, etc., behind the likes of Drouin, Kane, Hall, Stamkos, Tavares, but still in that ~40pt range. It’s not 2013 or 2015 in terms of depth, but top 15 looking good to me. From there it falls off.

    I guess that’s where the scouts’ input comes in to fill in the gaps. Reinhart may be best at 43pts, but “wide range of skills” makes him a better pick than Fiala at 40pts.

  103. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Ahh, but then this isn’t best player available but best value available–something I have been harping on for years, so I have to agree. I thought however, that we separated that quality from player rankings and considered it to be more “mock draft” territory?Anyways, thanks for the thought processes; it is appreciated.

    lol. Well I fully admit to a certain quirk quality on these lists. :-) Generally, I want it to reflect the best player available, but that’s a moving target. The NHLE’s are part of it, but anecdotal evidence is also a portion.

    For instance Kapanen. I like him because of a range of skills, but his offense isn’t crazy good by the NHLE and he had a poor U-18 according to Red Line.

    On the other hand, when I spoke to Gunnar Svensson on Saturday he perked right up at the mention of Kapanen. He clearly believes the guy is a player.

    So, I guess I’m influenced by a lot of ‘saw him good’ and math, but especially with the Euro’s it’s hard to make the math fit the CHL.

  104. spoiler says:

    Lowetide,

    Euros are bloody impossible. I am always at a loss with them in my own rankings because all we really get to see is one tournament with a very limited number of draft eligibles attending. Every time I rank one, in my head I am thinking, okay that sounds right… + or – 10 spots, lol.

  105. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    Lowetide,

    Fantastic! Can keep me occupied since Rangers tickets are too expensive for me to afford/they aren’t the Oil so I’m not paying $1000+ for a nosebleed ticket!

    I think this draft is being underrated. If you just go off of NHLEs, the top players are in the range with Nuge, Mackinnon, Yakupov, Strome, Huberdeau, etc., behind the likes of Drouin, Kane, Hall, Stamkos, Tavares, but still in that ~40pt range. It’s not 2013 or 2015 in terms of depth, but top 15 looking good to me. From there it falls off.

    I guess that’s where the scouts’ input comes in to fill in the gaps. Reinhart may be best at 43pts, but “wide range of skills” makes him a better pick than Fiala at 40pts.

    the Euro’s always impact the draft, and we find out late about them so it’s kind of a mess. I think I think that Nylander, Fiala and Kapanen are legit top 10, and that Vrana is middle 1st round. But that’s what I think now, as we get closer things could change.

  106. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Lowetide,

    Euros are bloody impossible.I am always at a loss with them in my own rankings because all we really get to see is one tournament with a very limited number of draft eligibles attending.Every time I rank one, in my head I am thinking, okay that sounds right… + or – 10 spots, lol.

    Yep. Damn straight.

  107. sliderule says:

    The only comment I have seen about Reinhart being a better winger than centre is from Pronman.

    One guy who probably hasn’t seen him anymore than most of us.

    I think his skill set suits centre more than wing

    So there it’s settled .Centre.

  108. Zangetsu says:

    Truth:
    Racki, hunter1909,

    Obviously I am just speculating about the injury, but it is too close to what I have witnessed myself.A guy canbench 250 lbs like nothing but his shoulder range of motion with a pull up is so limited or painful he can’t do it.

    Could be a number of different things, much like Yakupov in his draft season Bennett may have come back from injury too soon or played though an injury in an attempt to maintain is high draft ranking and he doesn’t actually need surgery to fix the issue.Or he may have a bad shoulder from way back and will require surgery at some point to fix it, much like Hall and RNH.Would Hall have went 1st overall if it was known surgery was required? Would RNH?I think the idea of taking a kid with injury would at best be a tie-breaker from selecting someone else in that spot.

    If he claims to be uninjured a team looking to take Bennett high could look at it positively.If he’s not hurt and he can’t do a single pull-up, yet accomplished what he has, what is his ceiling after he puts in some time at the gym? But I still cannot believe weakling.Does anyone know of a 17 year old hockey player that wouldn’t be able to do one pull up?Not to mention a 17 year old CHL star and future NHLer.Doesn’t happen, not possible.

    BTW it was 150 lbs bench, which is lightweight. I played every highschool sport except volleyball last year, and I don’t know a single player on any team that can’t do a pull-up (ok one 300lb olineman. I think he must be injured just based off the fact that every teenage athlete I know is capable of doing a pullup. If he indeed can’t, I find that distressing, since it tells me he has no work ethic off the ice.

    As a side note the nhl bench press is really weak looking at the numbers. Everyone on my football team warms up at 135lbs. Twelve out of forty did 225. Five of those twelve hit double digits. Different sports I know, but I didn’t hit do bench more than once a week, and I could do 150 for about 20 after 3 months. Just for reference push-ups are about 2/3 of your body weight worth of bench. So 120lbs on a 180lb man.

  109. delooper says:

    I think pull-ups are stooopid. Sorry for being pretty off-topic.

  110. justDOit says:

    Follow

    Tim KawakamiVerified account
    ‏@timkawakami
    Sharks GM Doug Wilson told me: “I want players that want to play here, not just live here.”

    I’m sure MacT would label that, ‘First world GM problems.’

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca