2014 TOP 30

In our continuing look at this year’s first round, this is ‘moving week’ on my list. Typically, I try to slot players in a range, reading here and there and finding out as much as I can about each of them. Once Pronman unloads, then Red Line, I kind of tweak things and move people up and down based on how things look from my pov.

I value NHLE, range of skills and potential. There are three players still in contention for No. 1 overall, so you can imagine how much movement there will be deeper into the top 30. The biggest mover this week: Brendan Perlini.

  1. (1)C Sam BennettHis EV totals (57GP, 25-34) and June birthday are the edge in a close race.
  2. (2)C Sam Reinhart—His EV totals (60GP, 22-41) and PP totals (60GP, 12-28) are outstanding.
  3. (3)D Aaron Ekblad—I’m tempted every week to put him at No. 1, if he was Seth Jones I’d do it.
  4. (4)C Leon Draisaitl—His EV totals (64GP, 25-37) and PP totals (64GP 12-28) are just shy.
  5. (6)L Nikolaj Ehlers—EV totals (64GP, 28-31) and skill set have him knocking down Dal Colle’s door.
  6. (5)L Michael Dal Colle—EV totals (67GP, 23-29) can’t match the C trio, but he’s a fine prospect.
  7. (7)L William Nylander—There’s just too much to keep him down.
  8. (10)C Robby Fabbri—EV totals (58GP, 30-28) and Memorial Cup have him here.
  9. (9)R Kevin Fiala—That damn Pronman appeared to have it right.
  10. (8)L Jake Virtanen—EV totals (71GP, 32-19) not far from Dal Colle’s.
  11. (12)L Nick Ritchie—EV totals (61GP, 22-26) suggest less offense than many others around him.
  12. (14)L Nikita Scherbak—EV totals (65GP, 20-28) tower over rest of team.
  13. (11)R Kasperi Kapanen—Solid two-way player, I wonder about the offense.
  14. (20)D Haydn Fleury—Consensus 2nd best D in this year’s draft.
  15. (15)L Jakub Vrana—Has a nice offensive tool kit, a little under the radar.
  16. (16)R Alex Tuch—Power forward, question is how much offense.
  17. (24)D Julius Honka—To hell with it, I love the guy.
  18. (18)C Ivan Barbasehev—EV totals (48GP, 15-21) shy of the top names, but impressive.
  19. (19)R David Pastrnak—Fun player to watch, very skilled.
  20. (27)R Josh Ho-Sang—EV totals (67GP, 23-38) are impressive.
  21. (17)C Jared McCann—EV totals (64GP, 17-16) average, but a nice range of skills.
  22. (13)L Brendan Perlini—EV totals (58GP, 15-17) are not impressive. I just don’t see it.
  23. (25)C Dylan Larkin—Power winger, one of these USHL kids.
  24. (26)C Vladislav Kamenev—Creative, skilled, has size.
  25. (21)L Adrian Kempe—Like his resume, can succeed in a couple ways.
  26. (22)C Conner Bleackley—EV totals (71GP, 18-25) fairly strong. Colby Armstrong 2.0.
  27. (23)L Sonny Milano—Skill winger with some defensive issues.
  28. (28)D Roland McKeown—Fast train with skill.
  29. (30)R Nikolai Goldobin—EV totals (67GP, 27-37) quality, one dimensional.
  30. (NR) C Jayce Hawrluk—Exceptional young prospect delivers offense (EV: 59GP, 15-29).

So that’s the way it is, we’re pretty close to how it will look next Monday. I have to figure out why Josh Ho-Sang is so far from Michael Dal Colle and if there’s a good reason for it, and wonder about the college goalie and that crazy good defenseman in the OHL. Once we figure out Demko and DeAngelo, we’re home.

There is no Lowdown today, TSN 1260 continues World Cup coverage and that will impact the show this and next week. Pretty cool listen though, I recommend it. I’m back tomorrow with the draft and trades being front and center.

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122 Responses to "2014 TOP 30"

  1. thejonrmcleod says:

    Bob MacKenzie says that Markov is asking for $6 million over 3 years. If you’re the Oilers, do you do that?

  2. justDOit says:

    Happy ‘buy-out’ Monday to everyone. Well, everyone except Brad Richards…

  3. thejonrmcleod says:

    “I’d like to add four or five players — one or two through trades and two or three unrestricted free agents,” said MacTavish.

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/06/16/edmonton-oilers-offseason-begins-for-gm-craig-mactavish

  4. thejonrmcleod says:

    Another interesting quote from the article linked above:

    “We also need a defending defenceman. We’re not going to compromise our young prospects on defence,” he said of forcing the likes of Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin, etc. into the line-up until they are ready.

    “We’d rather they played in the American Hockey League or junior.”

  5. Woodguy says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Bob MacKenzie says that Markov is asking for $6 million over 3 years. If you’re the Oilers, do you do that?

    $6MM x 3 years, not $6MM over 3 years.

    Its really close as he’s starting to fade.

    I say yes, but don’t feel good saying yes.

  6. Lowetide says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Bob MacKenzie says that Markov is asking for $6 million over 3 years. If you’re the Oilers, do you do that?

    Hmmm. It’s tough. If the Oilers planned to acquire Phaneuf, then no I don’t want him. but if they’re going to spend the UFA money on Orpik, then yes please. You know the last year or two of this deal will be hogwash, but that’s really where the Oilers are right now with free agents.

    That’s the sweetener.

  7. Lowetide says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Another interesting quote from the article linked above:

    “We also need a defending defenceman. We’re not going to compromise our young prospects on defence,” he said of forcing the likes of Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin, etc. into the line-up until they are ready.

    “We’d rather they played in the American Hockey League or junior.”

    It’s excellent he’s talking this way, but quite honestly if Marincin plays as he did this season this game is over. You’re better off flushing Ference than sending Marincin down. Seriously.

  8. John Chambers says:

    God I hope we acquire a C outside the draft which will enable us to bring a C along slowly or trade down and get one of the big wingers .

    Sorry to throw out trade ideas, but what does y’all think about Gags and #3 to Wpg for Byfuglien and the Jets pick a bit further back.

    From there I would give Markov his 3×6 (or 7)! and feel pretty good about the future.

  9. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide,

    The Oilers hold a lot of cards they can deal – UFAs on short contracts are just too attractive to pass up given the D cluster that is bubbling up for 2017 and beyond.

    If Markov’s low bar is 6, I think you get ready to win a bidding war with a fistful of Rexall bucks.

  10. thejonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    Sorry, that’s what I meant. $18 million total.

  11. nycoil says:

    LT, so Pronman has Sanheim Top 10, but you have him as 2nd round material, is that correct?

    Also on Markov, I think this year will be OK, next year…ehhh, last year will suck on a 3 year deal, but if you’re the Oilers you may have to take that chance. Rather that than be saddled with the likes of Orpik at $6m for 5 years, as LT said.

    Just make sure it doesn’t come at the expense of getting Stralman!

    P.S. I like that you have Ehlers top 5 now. I think that’s a perfect ranking for the offensive talents he brings. If he were 2″ taller and had 20 more pounds on his frame I think he’d be in the conversation for 1st overall.

  12. Woodguy says:

    According to Mirtle there’s a movement afoot to include the Rogers money in 14/15 instead of 15/16 like the normal procedure would be (realize the revenue THEN move the cap up)

    That could move the cap all the way from $64.5MM to $74.5MM instead of the projected $69.5MM-$71MM for 14/15

    That would be a massive blow to the Oilers.

    They are positioned very well to take advantage of the teams that are pressed too hard against the cap and need to shed salary.

    The strategy of leaving cap space to take advantage of this situation may get blown to bits, and if I were MacT and Katz I’m very pissed off.

    From the piece:

    Based purely on the NHL’s projected revenues of $3.7-billion this season, the salary cap will rise to roughly $69.5-million for next year – a noteworthy 8 per cent increase that is in line with what we’ve seen in the past.

    What that doesn’t factor in, however, is the possibility that the NHL and players’ union negotiate to include the new Canadian television deal in the cap formula right away, a distinct possibility according to multiple sources last week.

    “If a significant one-time increase or decrease to league-wide revenues is anticipated in the next league year,” the NHL’s collective bargaining agreement reads, “the parties will endeavor to estimate the expected increase or decrease and incorporate that estimate into” the cap calculation.

    You know who is pushing for this just by looking at who is capped out:

    Snider – PHI
    Jacobs – BOS
    WIrtz – CHI
    Ilitch – DET (cap penalties make their cap worse than Capgeek shows)
    MLSE – TOR
    Acuilini – VAN
    Dolan – NYR

    If this happens, guys like Stralman will probably get re-signed instead let go as the extra $5MM or so on the cap will save a bunch of these bastards from themselves.

    Assholes.

    Link to Mirtle’s piece: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/mirtle-plenty-of-buyouts-expected-to-kick-off-nhls-silly-season/article19176028/?cmpid=rss1&click=dlvr.it

  13. Hammers says:

    My question is if Ekblad falls to #3 do you trade the pick but to no more than #5 ,6 or 7 . I think I would if it gets me 1 of the items we need . Tough call for McT but looks like whomever it is won’t be in the NHL .

  14. Woodguy says:

    Kirk Luedeke @kluedeke29 · 1h
    In the coming days, I will deploy with the U.S. Army to Afghanistan. This is something I have been training for over past 6-8 months…

    Stay safe Mr. Luedeke

  15. Hammers says:

    nycoil: LT, so Pronman has Sanheim Top 10, but you have him as 2nd round material, is that correct?Also on Markov, I think this year will be OK, next year…ehhh, last year will suck on a 3 year deal, but if you’re the Oilers you may have to take that chance. Rather that than be saddled with the likes of Orpik at $6m for 5 years, as LT said.Just make sure it doesn’t come at the expense of getting Stralman!P.S. I like that you have Ehlers top 5 now. I think that’s a perfect ranking for the offensive talents he brings. If he were 2″ taller and had 20 more pounds on his frame I think he’d be in the conversation for 1st overall.

    Markov is 35 so you may get 3 years from him .Timonen is 39 and just resigned

  16. Woodguy says:

    Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie · 1h
    Looks like Ales Hemsky going to UFA. OTT offered 3 yrs for about $10M. Rejected. Sens prepared to trade his UFA rights for pick. #TSN

    Jesus.

    Hemmer scores almost 1pt/gm and they offer him less than $3.5MM/yr.

    No wonder Spezza wants out of there.

    With the cap going up and Melnyk not having any money and an internal cap, that’s a franchise that won’t realize the potential of many good young players.

  17. Racki says:

    Woodguy: $6MM x 3 years, not $6MM over 3 years.

    Its really close as he’s starting to fade.

    I say yes, but don’t feel good saying yes.

    I think you say yes in order to get him to be here. Ideally, they need a good talented vet here for about 3 years anyways. There’s an unfortunate chance he could fade away or quit early though. But unfortunately when you are the Oilers, you need to take some risks that competitive teams wouldn’t have to.

    I figured his salary would be 7m,so really it’s just the term that is questionable. Of course that’s less preferable though. Two years at 7m I would definitely do.

  18. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    LT, so Pronman has Sanheim Top 10, but you have him as 2nd round material, is that correct?

    Pronman has Sanheim in the top 10? Hadn’t seen that. Button I’ve seen, but not Pronman. Either way, although Pronman’s list (and McKenzie and Red Line) is an influence, I wouldn’t be putting Sanheim in my first round.

    I understand he has nice things, but the offensive side he brings isn’t noteworthy at all. Defensively he’s good, but I don’t think he warrants a pick this high.

  19. speeds says:

    I would pass on Markov for that kind of term. Not even sure I’d do two years at that money, nevermind 3.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I know I’ve kind of harped on him all year… but I think Barbashev should get a push for being a center and “range of skills”

    HockeyProspect.com @ScoutingService · Jun 13
    Barbashev, Ivan
    LC –Moncton – 6’01” 190 – complete player, often 1st man back. Can make plays from hash marks & be effective in cycle game.

    pretty good draft-1 season too

    68 18-44-62 (all)

  21. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Apologies! Morning brain fart. That’ll teach me to type before I get coffee. You are correct, I meant Button. Don’t know how I got the two confused.

  22. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    Lowetide,

    Apologies! Morning brain fart. That’ll teach me to type before I get coffee. You are correct, I meant Button. Don’t know how I got the two confused.

    No worries. I’ve had one coffee and am still in fog. :-)

  23. Truth says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Bob MacKenzie says that Markov is asking for $6 million over 3 years. If you’re the Oilers, do you do that?

    My understanding of that statement is that’s what Markov is asking for to stay in Montreal. I bet it’s $1M more per year or a year longer if it’s to come play in Edmonton. #canadagoose #parka

    I’d pay him 6.5 for two years. Overpayment? Yes. Any other options? Not really.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I know I’ve kind of harped on him all year… but I think Barbashev should get a push for being a center and “range of skills”

    HockeyProspect.com @ScoutingService·Jun 13
    Barbashev, Ivan
    LC –Moncton– 6’01” 190 – complete player, often 1st man back. Can make plays from hash marks & be effective in cycle game.

    pretty good draft-1 season too

    68 18-44-62 (all)

    My thinking on Barbashev is that he’s among the best ’2line C’s’ in the draft. The players above him (forwards) may have more risk attached (Virtanen being the obvious example) but their potential is higher.

    That’s the thinking, anyway.

  25. Jon K says:

    Great list, LT. My top ten is exactly the same. Of course, some players will move up or down based on non-skill factors such as size (Ritchie as an example).

    Regarding Ho-Sang, there’s been some pretty harsh criticism of his personality in multiple publications. At times his attitude and unwillingness to be coached has been compared to the one and only Robbie “Sugartits” Schremp.

    The hockey news draft guide was particularly harsh in it’s criticism. I don’t have it with me currently and I can’t recall their ranking for him, but McKeens has him falling out of the first round to 32 overall.

    Re: Markov. I take him if we can get him at 3 x $6. However it would have to be with the understanding that we are likely only getting two good years out of him. His experience and mentorship is desperately needed, however.

  26. borisnikov says:

    The Redline master list is quite funny. Here are some of the one line descriptions they have for guys..

    Nylander: Most skilled player in the draft, but a massive diva.

    Fiala: More exciting than Kate Upton in a wet bikini contest

    Ehlers: Heats up faster than a Kim Kardashian sex tape

    Goldobin: Pretty with the puck, pretty useless without it.

    Ho-sang: Super skills, but can be erratic as Toronto’s mayor

    44. Englund: Tough d-man hits harder than a drone missile strike

    47. Schmaltz: A classic $5 million skills, 10-cent head player

    Ritchie: Tougher than Beyonce’s sister in an elevator

    Virtanen: Skates, scores, hits and fights. Any questions?

    28, Vrana: Intensity a lot like junior rink coffee: lukewarm, tepid.

    I had a good chuckle when reading it.

  27. HBomb says:

    Baseball sidebar: quite sad news regarding Tony Gwynn, one of the best hitters of all time, this morning.

    Gone too soon (age 54) due to cancer. RIP

  28. thejonrmcleod says:

    MacTavish:

    “After our first pick we don’t have another one until the first pick of the fourth round. We have two picks in the fourth round and two picks in the fifth round and I suspect it will stay that way.”

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/06/16/terry-jones-draft-gives-oilers-lots-of-down-time

  29. CurtisS says:

    Just curious as to how many on this site do the math for overpayment on contracts.

    For me a 71M cap and a overpayment of 500K is 0.7% of the cap. Which lowers as the cap keeps going up.

    For me (my math) as of right now, I’m sure we can over pay 500K even 1M for a player we really want?

  30. Lowetide says:

    HBomb:
    Baseball sidebar: quite sad news regarding Tony Gwynn, one of the best hitters of all time, this morning.

    Gone too soon (age 54) due to cancer.RIP

    Completely bummed, I have to say.

  31. Racki says:

    What do folks figure it would take to sign Stastny? I agree that he’s the ideal target for C with Grabo being next on the list.

  32. Jordan says:

    Racki:
    What do folks figure it would take to sign Stastny? I agree that he’s the ideal target for C with Grabo being next on the list.

    I think the Oilers have as good a chance as anyone to sign him, since it seems like Sakic & Roy are holding the purse strings pretty tight.

    Even better odds if they move Gags, because there’s a clear hole for him to see himself in, and playing with Yak & Perron would be a nice soft landing, esp. with a fat contract.

    LT, will you please tell me that even if you’re not on the air on Thursday, you will still make time for Dennis King another day this week? Favourite part of my day at work is listening to the two of you, and biting my lip to keep from laughing out loud in my cubicle.

  33. Lowetide says:

    Jordan: I think the Oilers have as good a chance as anyone to sign him, since it seems like Sakic & Roy are holding the purse strings pretty tight.

    Even better odds if they move Gags, because there’s a clear hole for him to see himself in, and playing with Yak & Perron would be a nice soft landing, esp. with a fat contract.

    LT, will you please tell me that even if you’re not on the air on Thursday, you will still make time for Dennis King another day this week?Favourite part of my day at work is listening to the two of you, and biting my lip to keep from laughing out loud in my cubicle.

    I’m on Tue, Wed and Thu this week. :-)

  34. Mr DeBakey says:

    Racki: What do folks figure it would take to sign Stastny? I agree that he’s the ideal target for C with Grabo being next on the list.

    For a team that doesn’t draft in the Top-10 every damn year?
    North of $7.
    He’s going to be very popular.

  35. Racki says:

    Mr DeBakey: For a team that doesn’t draft in the Top-10 every damn year?
    North of $7.
    He’s going to be very popular.

    I’d be surprised if he can get that outside of Edmonton. I mean good player but we aren’t talking Toews here, right? That said, I thought his current deal was quite high at the time. I’d have a tough time justifying that much. If that’s what it takes, maybe you focus on Grabo instead.

    I do think he’ll be popular too though.

  36. Caramel Obvious says:

    Woodguy is right. The cap going up would be a catastrophe for the Oilers.

    Also, avoid Stastny. The hope is they want to keep Stastny and you can pull O’Reilly out of them.

    No reason to pay for someone’s prime after the prime is over. Stastny is this years Nathan Horton.

  37. Jon K says:

    Vern Fiddler is reportedly going to UFA. I can’t access vollman charts right now but is suspect he was used in Dallas as a utility forward on the 3/4 lines at C and the wing. He’s probably not much better than Hendricks and would cost the same, but possibly fits the need for an experienced two-way forward.

    I certainly like Fiddler-Gordon more than Gordon-Lander anchoring the bottom six centre positions.

    EDIT: And as I recall, he is an Edmonton native. If I’m MacT I’m targeting him but setting a limit at 2.5 per year.

  38. TheOtherJohn says:

    From Jones:

    “but his core players, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Justin Schultz, are not going anywhere.

    “They’re the toughest kind of players to get,” he said of the high end skill.”

    Those emerging defencemen are likely not in the discussions either.”

    If you are not including any of your your core or any of the young D who the bleep are you trading to get viable players? Forgot….because …..Oilers

  39. BlacqueJacque says:

    Greetings from Europe. I had a nightmare tonight, where I saw the draft. MacT announced a trade down for a goon and the 8th overall pick. Then Tambellini (the only hint I had that this was a dream) proudly announced the selection of an 18-year-old rugby player whose dad played hockey in the 80s. Fat Bob at TSN flipped 20 pages before he could name a fact about the kid.

    Also, Canadian women are awful. Czech, Slovak, and especially Polish girls are where it’s at.

    That is all.

  40. Racki says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    From Jones:

    “but his core players, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Justin Schultz, are not going anywhere.

    “They’re the toughest kind of players to get,” he said of the high end skill.”

    Those emerging defencemen are likely not in the discussions either.”

    If you are not including any of your your core or any of the young D who the bleep are you trading to get viable players? Forgot….because …..Oilers

    Some others noted that Yakupov wasn’t named. *tosses grenade and runs*

  41. Jordan says:

    Caramel Obvious: No reason to pay for someone’s prime after the prime is over. Stastny is this years Nathan Horton.

    Hard to say. Some people do fall off a cliff at that age.

    Some people do not. Jager, Hossa, St. Louis, Thornton – all remain very productive players and all are on the wrong side of 30 (or 40).

    Not saying that he’s in either camp, just that prognostication is very hard. I expect he’d be more likely to put up points playing with the Oilers 2nd line than he would with many other 2nd lines in the NHL, and unless he’s going to Nashville, he’s going to be playing on the second line.

  42. BlacqueJacque says:

    Racki,

    Tossing grenades at MacT around these parts is hazardous to one’s health.

  43. bendelson says:

    Godot10′s post yesterday regarding LA was interesting. Good stuff.

    Agreed, it is too dangerous to start making those types of calls before the Oilers know what they have on D… but what if we apply the same approach to the Oilers offence (the reverse Godot) given the cluster has a few more years of development under their belt?

    1) Identify top tier:

    top tier: Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yakupov
    2nd tier: Gagner, Pitlick, Lander

    2) Trade the 2nd tier prospects for defence

    As sliderrule mentioned, this is a problem given the way these players were developed in Edm and their resulting lack of value on the trade market.

    Gagner + Pitlick for Larsson? (I don’t know)

    3) Sign 2nd tier UFA (or near) veteran F to complement their homegrown 1st tier prospects

    Kulimen, Winnick, Goc?

    4) Trade a top aging F (don’t really have one…) so, find a way to trade for experienced young veteran D (Kulikov?)

    Note: My bias insisted I place Nail in the top tier of prospects knowing full well that the jury is still deliberating on exactly where Yakupov belongs…

    And there you have it. Not far off from what has been suggested MacT attempt to accomplish this summer. The Lombardi model?

  44. slopitch says:

    I wouldn’t offer Markov more then Hall. He’s the cap (for now). Id probably do 5.75 x 3 though.

    I like going after Boychuk and chasing Stastny, Grabovski, Kulimen. Hell, anyone who can play. This is the part about being a fan that kills me. 26 mill in cap space and no idea who they want or who would sign here.

  45. Jon K says:

    slopitch:
    I wouldn’t offer Markov more then Hall. He’s the cap (for now). Id probably do 5.75 x 3 though.

    I like going after Boychuk and chasing Stastny, Grabovski, Kulimen. Hell, anyone who can play. This is the part about being a fan that kills me.26 mill in cap space and no idea who they want or who would sign here.

    With the cap possibly going up over $70, the Oilers are going to have a hard time signing ANY players if they are unwilling to pay over $6.

    I don’t know that Hall or others are going to be offended if the team overpays UFA veterans to try and help the team contend now.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    I see your off-season return to Oilers’ interest has begun in earnest!

    seriously, welcome back.

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Can’t keep the kids on the farm

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/6/16/can-t-keep-the-kids-down-on-the-farm

    I think we have to take this with two caveats.

    1. It’s not really about marincin. It’s about org. philosophy. Each individual case will have to be assessed separately. that quote reads more like MacT laying down a sound org. philosophy that I am completely behind.

    2. it has to be paired with MacT’s “if we have to go young, we’ll go young”

  48. Lowetide says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    From Jones:

    “but his core players, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Justin Schultz, are not going anywhere.

    “They’re the toughest kind of players to get,” he said of the high end skill.”

    Those emerging defencemen are likely not in the discussions either.”

    If you are not including any of your your core or any of the young D who the bleep are you trading to get viable players? Forgot….because …..Oilers

    Name missing? Yakupov.

  49. BlacqueJacque says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Thank you, but I don’t think I’ll stay. One can eat only so much bread and watch so much circus. I just thought I’d share my depressing dream of the old boys club in action before retiring back to central European discos and the amazing ass within.

  50. Jon K says:

    Lowetide,

    Yak has pretty consistently been missing from MacT and Stauffer’s verbal. I really wonder if he is not seen as part of the core or perhaps it is part of some strategy to impart to Yak and Larionov that he needs to earn that status, and isn’t guaranteed it.

    Given all of the rumours from Bob MacKenzie this morning, it could very well be that he’s heading out of town. Over to the Jets as part of a package for Ladd or Buff? Both?

    There just seem to be endless possibilities this year in terms of player movement.

  51. misfit says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Another interesting quote from the article linked above:

    “We also need a defending defenceman. We’re not going to compromise our young prospects on defence,” he said of forcing the likes of Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin, etc. into the line-up until they are ready.

    “We’d rather they played in the American Hockey League or junior.”

    That’s music to my ears (er…eyes).

    As for the Fiddler item, he’d be the absolute ideal 4C for this team. The problem is, I thought he asked for a trade out of Dallas last year because he was only getting 4th line minutes/role for them. I think he sees himself as a 3C, not a 4, and probably wouldn’t want to come here and play at the bottom of the depth chart. But as a player, he’s the perfect utility forward. Great faceoff man, leader, is good for 20 points plaing tough minutes and moves the puck forward…he’s even from here!

  52. slopitch says:

    Jon K,

    I agree. I don’t really like buying UFAs. If your buying a house and there are 2-3 other offers, you likely walk away because its dumb to pay over list unless the house is under priced. We dodged a bullet with Clarkson. Stastny will be overpaid but its the term that scares me. Id rather trade for someone like Boychuk or go after the guys who may be available on July 10th. I actually dont hate offering Markov a contract because of his age he wont get insane term.

    Andrew Gross ‏@AGrossRecord 21m
    Boyle is going to look for a bigger role when he hits free agency. AV told him today he’d continue in current role next year here.

  53. Moose says:

    I find it interesting the MacT has made a point, twice now (Spector & Jones pieces) of talking about the D-Man target being not just a puck mover, but a guy who can skate the guy out of trouble. If I’m reading those tea leaves, I’m guessing the (reasonable) target list has guys like:

    Letang
    Gardiner
    Leddy
    Shattenkirk
    Yandle

    That’s a mixed bag, but those are guys that realistically could be available and acquirable for different reasons. Not sure I wold gamble on Letang and I wouldn’t want Yandle or Leddy.

  54. Lowetide says:

    Jon K:
    Lowetide,

    Yak has pretty consistently been missing from MacT and Stauffer’s verbal. I really wonder if he is not seen as part of the core or perhaps it is part of some strategy to impart to Yak and Larionov that he needs to earn that status, and isn’t guaranteed it.

    Given all of the rumours from Bob MacKenzie this morning, it could very well be that he’s heading out of town. Over to the Jets as part of a package for Ladd or Buff? Both?

    There just seem to be endless possibilities this year in terms of player movement.

    It’s basically why I wrote him into the moving parts piece imo. They KNOW he has value, but are not sure of FIT. Meanwhile, he’ll score 40 for the Islanders and become the King of New York once he’s dealt.

  55. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: It’s basically why I wrote him into the moving parts piece imo. They KNOW he has value, but are not sure of FIT. Meanwhile, he’ll score 40 for the Islanders and become the King of New York once he’s dealt.

    Cronin will eff him up worse than Bucky.

  56. admiralmark says:

    Curious to hear what all the Hemsky proponents out there think of his offer from Ottawa? 3 years for $10 Million? After apps 2 years of Oilers attempting to deal him for anything reasonable and not getting much interest from the entire league. Followed by last years eventual dump off to Ottawa for next to nothing because again the league wide offers were just that weak. And now after finishing the season in Ottawa where some would say he ended very effectively offensively at least. He sees a $3.3 Mill/year offer.

    how much more evidence is needed that Hemsky with his flashes of brilliance has flaws that devalue him greatly. This player has been overvalued by a select portion of this fan base and the almost total inability to get a trade offer from the entire league followed by this latest trade offer from Ottawa pretty misc says it all. Sorry boys. He just isn’t that great.

  57. Lowetide says:

    admiralmark:
    Curious to hear what all the Hemsky proponents out there think of his offer from Ottawa? 3 years for $10 Million? After apps 2 years of Oilers attempting to deal him for anything reasonable and not getting much interest from the entire league. Followed by last years eventual dump off to Ottawa for next to nothing because again the league wide offers were just that weak. And now after finishing the season in Ottawa where some would say he ended very effectively offensively at least. He sees a $3.3 Mill/year offer.

    how much more evidence is needed that Hemsky with his flashes of brilliance has flaws that devalue him greatly. This player has been overvalued by a select portion of this fan base and the almost total inability to get a trade offer from the entire league followed by this latest trade offer from Ottawa pretty misc says it all. Sorry boys. He just isn’t that great.

    That’s an awful offer, and I am shocked they made it. Ottawa are idiots.

  58. Frank the dog says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    That would be because get good players keep good players trade your tier 2′s. Also because MacT has common sense.

  59. dawgtoy says:

    HBomb:
    Baseball sidebar: quite sad news regarding Tony Gwynn, one of the best hitters of all time, this morning.

    Gone too soon (age 54) due to cancer.RIP

    He was one of the good ones. Class act on and off the field. Sad to see him go so soon. RIP

  60. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Name missing? Yakupov.

    I think MacTavish is taking the wait and see approach with Yakupov. He hasn’t yet proven what he is, which gives many of us fans here fits at the thought of trading him, but at the same time from a management perspective, they aren’t going to put him in with the core group based solely on draft pedigree.

    They have put Schultz into the group, but he is older and has shown something in his AHL play. Also, he is closer to MacTavish than Yakupov, arguably being MacTavish’s first “draft pick” if we want to think of it that way.

    If Yakupov has a solid season (assuming he is still here, and I believe he will be) then I think MacTavish will be more than willing to add him to the group defined as the “young core”.

  61. Jon K says:

    admiralmark:
    Curious to hear what all the Hemsky proponents out there think of his offer from Ottawa? 3 years for $10 Million? After apps 2 years of Oilers attempting to deal him for anything reasonable and not getting much interest from the entire league. Followed by last years eventual dump off to Ottawa for next to nothing because again the league wide offers were just that weak. And now after finishing the season in Ottawa where some would say he ended very effectively offensively at least. He sees a $3.3 Mill/year offer.

    how much more evidence is needed that Hemsky with his flashes of brilliance has flaws that devalue him greatly. This player has been overvalued by a select portion of this fan base and the almost total inability to get a trade offer from the entire league followed by this latest trade offer from Ottawa pretty misc says it all. Sorry boys. He just isn’t that great.

    If Ottawa is cheaping out on Hemsky to that extent, and they’re also moving Spezza, I wonder if the Sens are looking to tank for McDavid. There is a precedent in Ottawa for that kind of behavior. To be clear, there’s no chance mcDavid turns into Daigle, however.

  62. RexLibris says:

    Jon K: If Ottawa is cheaping out on Hemsky to that extent, and they’re also moving Spezza, I wonder if the Sens are looking to tank for McDavid. There is a precedent in Ottawa for that kind of behavior. To be clear, there’s no chance mcDavid turns into Daigle, however.

    I’ve noticed more and more erratic behaviour from Melnyk in recent years. His private investigation into Cooke’s slash on Karlsson’s ankle, and so on.

    Could be he’s turning into a bit of an Al Davis owner in his later years.

    But if they are getting rid of Spezza then there isn’t much reason to keep the winger with whom he played well.

    I don’t know that they are setting themselves up to tank for McDavid, but rather making calls on all available talent and cutting where they feel they can/have to.

  63. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    admiralmark: Curious to hear what all the Hemsky proponents out there think of his offer from Ottawa?

    They have no idea what they are doing and you’ve completely misinterpreted what’s happened.

  64. delooper says:

    Lowetide: It’s basically why I wrote him into the moving parts piece imo. They KNOW he has value, but are not sure of FIT. Meanwhile, he’ll score 40 for the Islanders and become the King of New York once he’s dealt.

    When people were arguing whether or not to draft for need, or to draft the best player, the consensus was to draft the best player at #1. The end of the argument was “even if we find we have an abundance of that player type, he will have value and we can trade him or one of that player type later to ensure balance”.

    The problem with trading Yakupov is he’d likely be under-valued in a trade this summer, and it would likely sabotage the Russian momentum the Oilers are building. So it doesn’t make sense.

  65. boopronger says:

    So you figure jones is better then eckblad and jones fell to 4? Still think oilers will get eckblad at 3.

  66. Lowetide says:

    delooper: When people were arguing whether or not to draft for need, or to draft the best player, the consensus was to draft the best player at #1.The end of the argument was “even if we find we have an abundance of that player type, he will have value and we can trade him or one of that player type later to ensure balance”.

    The problem with trading Yakupov is he’d likely be under-valued in a trade this summer, and it would likely sabotage the Russian momentum the Oilers are building.So it doesn’t make sense.

    Agreed, and I’m hopeful the Oilers stay the course. This is a dangerous summer, and this is one of the reasons.

  67. G Money says:

    It’s fair for the MacT braintrust to exclude Yak from their core right now.

    He has to have a reasonably consistent high-end year suited to a 1OV before he could/should be included.

    The one good year he’s had (won rookie scoring title) has a big asterisk beside it due to shortened season + two super hot streaks rather than consistent performance + unsustainably high shooting %.

    Trading him for peanuts would of course be an enormous act of stupidity (and I’m disinclined to believe MacT would do such a thing unless it’s for an outstanding return). Those super hot streaks were close to goal-per-game and that suggests why Yak has an incredibly high ceiling and why we all love the guy.

    But sometime soon, Yak’s gotta put up or all of us fans are going to have to shut up…

  68. delooper says:

    G Money:
    It’s fair for the MacT braintrust to exclude Yak from their core right now.

    I think I agree. It might appear to Yakupov as shifting the goalposts, as Hall was viewed as “core” as soon as he arrived. But as an organization gets better, they have to shift the goalposts. That’s how growth occurs. You set new, bigger goals. It might sting Yakupov, but if he puts in a year with great stats and reasonably-good defensive awareness he’ll kill all the trade-Yakupov chatter.

  69. TheOtherJohn says:

    Lowetide: Name missing? Yakupov.

    If you trade Yak now you will be getting less than full value. Would not surprise me that th Oilers do it but expect they will get less than value

  70. G Money says:

    Racki:
    What do folks figure it would take to sign Stastny? I agree that he’s the ideal target for C with Grabo being next on the list.

    My “line in the sand” contract value calculation for UFAs (http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/5/26/5752148/whats-a-ufa-worth) puts Stastny at $6.7M based on his career ppg of 0.851. His playoff probably boosted his value.

    So I’m betting that he’s going to get offers north of $7M on the market, which means the Oil will probably have to put up 5 years x $7.5M minimum.

  71. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: That’s an awful offer, and I am shocked they made it. Ottawa are idiots.

    They tend to be cheap, not idiots.

    I would bet that trading for Hemsky was more about try to keep Spezza than to bring in Hemsky. In that way they are a package deal.

    As it stands now:

    a) Spezza was obviously key in helping Hemsky put up 17 points in 20 games
    b) Spezza won’t be there
    c)Hemsky has not show in recent years that he can carry the load himself (he is not a first line guy anymore)
    d) He played well in OTT but it was a pretty small sample size
    e) Without support, he is likely to regress to something more in line with what he was done the last few years in EDM

    Anyway, Hemsky already said in April he wanted to play for a “good team”. He likely would go to free agency regardless of any offer to see what is out there for him.

    I am guessing he gets 3 x $4 million from a “good team” (say Detroit). This will be followed by people here who will criticize the Oilers and Sens for not making the same offer while choosing the ignore the likelihood Hemsky never had any real interest in playing for the Oilers and Sens at this stage of his career.

    Sorry to disagree. I will go back into exile now.

  72. G Money says:

    Just for shits and giggles, this is my calculated “fair value for UFA” for a number of names that have been mentioned in this thread and others (recognizing that not all of these are actually UFA):

    Name / Fair Value Contract Based on Career PPG (corr = 0.846)

    Bailey Josh 2.6
    Bourque Rene 3.16
    Clarkson David 1.973
    Fiddler Vernon 1.398
    Grabovski Mikhail 4.147
    Hemsky Ales 5.549
    Jokinen Jussi 4.485
    Jokinen Olli 4.542
    Kulemin Nikolai 2.868
    Penner Dustin 3.49
    Setoguchi Devin 3.65
    Spezza Jason 8.174
    Umberger R.J. 3.663
    Winnik Daniel 1.32

  73. Rondo says:

    What about Evander Kane do the Oilers have any interest?

  74. Ca$h-Money! says:

    G Money,

    Love it. Clarkson at 1.9 really stands out. Maybe we can trade for him and have T.O. retain 65% of his salary…..

    And jeez, what did Jussi Jokinen do to be so under rated for so long? The guy gets no love.

  75. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    boopronger:
    So you figure jones is better then eckblad and jones fell to 4? Still think oilers will get eckblad at 3.

    Jones is better than Eckblad.

    And be careful about evaluating players year over year based on their draft number. It is bound to carry too much noise to be meaningful.

  76. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ducey: They tend to be cheap, not idiots.

    The right answer is both.

  77. Rondo says:

    Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie · 5h
    I don’t think it’s very far down road, if at all, but my sense is WPG much more open to considering trade for any player, incl Evander Kane.

    Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie · 1h
    Pending UFA Ryan Callahan is still talking to TB about a new deal but no one will be surprised if he goes to UFA on July 1.

  78. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Jones is better than Eckblad.

    And be careful about evaluating players year over year based on their draft number. It is bound to carry too much noise to be meaningful.

    Have you tried the new age difference analysis to compare Ekblad and jones.

    I have lost the link but I think it would make Ekblad look better than you think.

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule: Have you tried the new age difference analysis to compareEkblad and jones.

    I have lost the link but I think it would make Ekblad lookbetter than you think.

    If you are referring to this:

    http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2014/06/adjusting-scoring-rate-for-age-in-chl.html

    it’s set up for forwards, not D.

    The problem with boxcars and D is they (much more than forwards) are affected by TOI, esp. regarding discipline splits.

    At any rate, Ekblad is only 4 months (and a year) younger than Jones. Is 4 months enough to make up for the significant ES scoring difference between the players?

    I doubt it.

  80. RexLibris says:

    Gregor has an article up at ON where he covers the UFA field. He includes this sentence: “Stralman seems to be the new flavour of the month for many, but how good is he when he’s not playing beside Mark Staal?” which is funny, because in my opinion I’d have reversed the two. How good is Staal when not paired with Stralman?

  81. RexLibris says:

    World Cup goalline technology.

    Worth a read. Granted, apples and oranges to the NHL and the puck, but I see some translatable technologies and applications here.

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/16/world-cup-goalline-technology-football-brazil-2014

  82. Frank the dog says:

    What happened to never taking D in the top of the draft because of their unpredictability?

  83. wintoon says:

    From my persdpective Yakupov has done absolutely nothing yet to warrant inclusion in the Oilers CORE group. While he appears to have outstanding potential as a one shot scorer, he hasn’t arrived at that spot. For me, while I really like a lot of what I have seen from him, the jury is still out. To include him in that group would be akin to gifting players ice time rather than having them earn it.

    I strongly believe that Yakupov may be the single most important project for both Eakins and Ramsay heading into the 2014-2015 season. If they deliver him as a reasonably well balanced player who begins to shine, they have been successful. If he doesn’t then they will have failed the franchise and Yakupov.

  84. delooper says:

    wintoon:
    I strongly believe that Yakupov may be the single most important project for both Eakins and Ramsay heading into the 2014-2015 season. If they deliver him as a reasonably well balanced player who begins to shine, they have been successful. If he doesn’t then they will have failed the franchise and Yakupov.

    I suspect everyone would agree with you, as well as Eakins. My impression was Eakins put more energy into Yakupov last season that any other player.

  85. hoser313 says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Bob MacKenzie says that Markov is asking for $6 million over 3 years. If you’re the Oilers, do you do that?

    Yes. Oilers have the cap room to do it. That would bring in a proper mentor on D for the young guys and ensure that they don’t start at least one of Nurse and Klefbom in the top 6 next year.

  86. hoser313 says:

    admiralmark:
    Curious to hear what all the Hemsky proponents out there think of his offer from Ottawa? 3 years for $10 Million?

    Sorry boys. He just isn’t that great.

    He led the Czechs at this year’s Olympics (the best hockey there is, sorry Bettman) in both goals and points (tied with others). That’s worth north of $4M/year even if he only plays 50 games/year.

  87. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Stauffer is saying that PHI may/could make a splash at the draft (in Philly) and go after the 1st overall(ekblad) using their abundance of centres.

    FLA has enough top 6 young Cs in Bjugstad and Barkov. Would it make more sense to deal something around 3rd overall for couturier then move up from there?

  88. misfit says:

    That Ottawa offer to Hemsky was bad, but I have to think he was looking to move on regardless of what they were willing to pay him. Hemsky’s top priority as a free agent will be in getting back to the playoffs (I bet he has the Bruins high on his list for that reason as well as the Krejci factor). Ottawa is no lock to be a playoff team next year, and that was with Spezza. Now he’s going to be gone, which makes their playoff aspirations even more of a longshot,

    Hemsky is worth more than $10M over 3 years, but I could see him signing a contract of that nature if it means he’ll be playing NHL hockey in May.

  89. delooper says:

    What ramifications do you think Ghana-US will have on who goes first overall in the draft!?!?!?

  90. rickithebear says:

    EVGA
    Dmen with EVGA.

    There is no way to make up for a 3.23 EVGA/60

    There are 45 forwards with GF/60 better than 3.23.

    These are the lines that are slightly better than even with this kind of defence.

    Lucic-Krejci-Iginla

    Saad-Toews-Sharp

    Landeskog-Statsny-Parenteau

    Macarthur-Turris-Ryan

    Kunitz-Malkin/Crosby-Neal

    Maybe we can trade for 2 of these lines and have Hall-RNH-Eberle.
    we could break even with schultz on D.

  91. rickithebear says:

    Goals in Net;
    Goals out of net.

    5 of the 6 cup winners dmen are 1.66 EVGA or less
    5 of the top 10.
    Try to beat that team!

    Good Luck!

  92. Racki says:

    rickithebear,

    Trade for two of those LINES? That has to be a typo.. Or did I misunderstand your meaning..

  93. bendelson says:

    delooper: What ramifications do you think Ghana-US will have on who goes first overall in the draft!?!?!?

    I collected the data and ran the numbers. It appears as though there is absolutely no realtionship between the US World Cup Match today and the upcoming NHL hockey draft.

    Perhaps you were thinking of the NBA draft?

  94. delooper says:

    bendelson: I collected the data and ran the numbers.It appears as though there is absolutely no realtionship between the US World Cup Match today and the upcoming NHL hockey draft.

    Perhaps you were thinking of the NBA draft?

    But it’s so exciting! The karmic energy running off my forehead must be influencing the Oilers draft process…. somehow!

  95. nycoil says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Couturier is untouchable in Philly. Short of offering Hall to them they aren’t going to move him. They wouldn’t include him in a deal for Weber. Could see Brayden Schenn shaking loose for sure. Is Schenn enough for 3rd overall? No chance. Is Schenn and Coburn too much? Probably. Therefore I really fear 3rd + Marincin for Schenn + Coburn going down. That is an enormous worry for me. Honestly, unless some team wants to pay through the nose for the 3rd overall I hope we keep the pick and take BPA.

    The other problem is, as Woodguy has pointed out, if the cap goes up to account for the Sportsnet deal, this damages the Oilers greatly. The Rangers can re-sign Pouliot and Stralman no problem then, and Stralman’s stated preference is to stay on Broadway. Boston can keep and re-sign Boychuk, Krug, Smith, etc. And so on down the line. It sucks for the Oilers.

    On another note:
    Caps to pursue “top” d-man
    http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2014/06/16/caps-to-pursue-top-d-man-and-perhaps-aggressively-pursue/

  96. RexLibris says:

    delooper:
    What ramifications do you think Ghana-US will have on who goes first overall in the draft!?!?!?

    I don’t think it could possible be overstated.

  97. nycoil says:

    Bob McKenzie on fire today with his tweets. Too many to post, really, but a few highlights [my thoughts in [ ] ]:
    -looks like Colorado moving Parenteau and his $4M salary [to make room for ROR and Stastny?] but…
    -Colorado wants Stastny to take a pay cut from his current $6.6m; Stastny wants to stay, how much is a hometown discount?
    -Fiddler going to UFA [he's been mentioned on this blog a lot]
    -CBJ may buy out Umberger if no takers [So please don't trade Gagner for him]

  98. wintoon says:

    delooper,

    While he may have put a lot into Yakupov, the results simply weren’t there. I almost wonder if he (Yak) has a full appreciation of what is required to play at this level and the on ice awareness to modify his game to enable him to be a significant positive contributor.

  99. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    According to Mirtle there’s a movement afoot to include the Rogers money in 14/15 instead of 15/16 like the normal procedure would be (realize the revenue THEN move the cap up)
    That could move the cap all the way from $64.5MM to $74.5MM instead of the projected $69.5MM-$71MM for 14/15
    That would be a massive blow to the Oilers.
    They are positioned very well to take advantage of the teams that are pressed too hard against the cap and need to shed salary.
    The strategy of leaving cap space to take advantage of this situation may get blown to bits, and if I were MacT and Katz I’m very pissed off.
    *******************************************************************************************
    1. Mirtle was interviewed on Winnipeg radio today and continued a common theme I hear…
    mocking the UFA class this year. Again, Mirtle pointed out, what is available this year will be
    overpays.

    2. This take advantage of Cap strapped teams was supposed to happen last year – as the cap went down for the 2013/14 season. Never happened.This year was supposed to be the crunch year.

    A massive blow to the Oilers is having Craig Mactivish say he is pursuing a 3rd pairing defenceman. ( and he means it )

  100. denny33 says:

    HBomb,

    Agreed….

  101. bendelson says:

    delooper: But it’s so exciting!The karmic energy running off my forehead must be influencing the Oilers draft process…. somehow!

    Might I suggest running a regression analysis of your hairline?

  102. denny33 says:

    Rondo,

    Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie · 5h
    I don’t think it’s very far down road, if at all, but my sense is WPG much more open to considering trade for any player, incl Evander Kane.
    ******************************************************************************
    Agreed – Winnipeg media feels the same…..Chevy is likely to alter the ‘core’ of his team.

    Mirtle also expressed the idea that there were a lot of balls up in the air for trades this summer…league wide.

  103. jb says:

    Is it too much to ask to have fans actually support Yak? He’s got the tools, the attitude, the drive to improve, he has everything. Just get fully behind the guy and watch him grow into a quality NHL player. Step one, get him a competent NHL center not named Sam Gagner.

    Also I don’t believe there’s a single reason to think Markov will leave Montreal.

  104. rickithebear says:

    My intention was to frame the importance of Forwards being able to outscore EVGA.
    Lak Forwards are very Lucky!

    our 3 best even forwards are
    Hall 3.0 1- RNH 2.63 – EBS 2.78 our worst Dpair can be 2.81 EVGA/60
    Perron 2.63 – Gagner 2.20 – YAK 2.07 our 2nd worst D pair can be 2.30 EVGA/60
    Smyth 1.64 – Arco 2.06 -Jones 1.63 our 3rd worst dpair can be 1.78 EVGA/60

    Hall 3.01 – XXX – XXX
    Perron 2.63 – XXX – Eberel 2.78
    XXX – RNH 2.63 – XXX

    it would be nice to have Bellimore and niskanen
    to add to Marincin

  105. Lowetide says:

    jb:
    Is it too much to ask to have fans actually support Yak? He’s got the tools, the attitude, the drive to improve, he has everything. Just get fully behind the guy and watch him grow into a quality NHL player. Step one, get him a competent NHL center not named Sam Gagner.

    Also I don’t believe there’s a single reason to think Markov will leave Montreal.

    I honestly haven’t seen a lot of negative about him. The agent didn’t help, but beyond that he’s pretty much adored. We’re all cheering for him!

  106. delooper says:

    bendelson: Might I suggest running a regression analysis of your hairline?

    I feel like I do that about 20 times a day…

  107. OilClog says:

    jb:
    Is it too much to ask to have fans actually support Yak? He’s got the tools, the attitude, the drive to improve, he has everything. Just get fully behind the guy and watch him grow into a quality NHL player. Step one, get him a competent NHL center not named Sam Gagner.

    Also I don’t believe there’s a single reason to think Markov will leave Montreal.

    I would say the fans are the only ones supporting young Yak if anything lol

  108. OilClog says:

    With Thorton not returning to Boston.. What are the chances he lands here? I’m going to say.. probably.

    He’s not the type of player I want to see brought in, but his “in room character” seems to be glowed about around the league. He knows how to win, ties with Ference, would rather see him fighting for a bottom forward spot with Gazdic then the likes of a Mark Fraser battling for any position, especially on the back end.

    Hendricks Thorton Gazdic line for BOA, and big teams. Would be a very heavy scary line for 90-150 seconds a game or so. Lol

  109. jake70 says:

    WG:
    You know who is pushing for this just by looking at who is capped out:
    Snider – PHI
    Jacobs – BOS
    WIrtz – CHI
    Ilitch – DET (cap penalties make their cap worse than Capgeek shows)
    MLSE – TOR
    Acuilini – VAN
    Dolan – NYR
    If this happens, guys like Stralman will probably get re-signed instead let go as the extra $5MM or so on the cap will save a bunch of these bastards from themselves.
    Assholes.

    What I see happening is Edmonton being used by agents to bump up offers by other teams. Not too unsimilar to Clarkson last year. Remember Doan, doing his little tour few summers ago, unsure if Phoenix was going to be resolved, travelled to Montreal, Edmonton and who knows where else and ended up with a great offer from Phoenix being paid by the other 29 owners.

  110. admiralmark says:

    admiralmark: Curious to hear what all the Hemsky proponents out there think of his offer from Ottawa?

    Romulus Apotheosis says:
    June 16, 2014 at 11:52 am

    They have no idea what they are doing and you’ve completely misinterpreted what’s happened.

    Ottawa has no idea or the entire league has no idea? Oilers decided they would rather dump him off to free up cap for next to nothing in return. This after at least 2-3 years of trying to find decent offers from anyone in the league with no buyers. This is indicative of a player that “league wide” holds little value. Ottawa’s offer is just the latest example of how he is viewed by the league. And yet some fans talk about him as though he’s the second coming.

  111. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: If you are referring to this:

    http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2014/06/adjusting-scoring-rate-for-age-in-chl.html

    it’s set up for forwards, not D.

    The problem with boxcars and D is they (much more than forwards) are affected by TOI, esp. regarding discipline splits.

    At any rate, Ekblad is only 4 months (and a year) younger than Jones. Is 4 months enough to make up for the significant ES scoring difference between the players?

    I doubt it.

    The ice time for Ekblad and Jones would have been probably pretty equal as junior hockey teams ride their hosses pretty hard.
    The other factor is Winter Hawks had a powerhouse team while Barrie had a good team.
    If your getting a lot of ice with a powerhouse team you should pile up the points both at ES and PP.
    It probably won’t matter for oilers as Ekblad will be gone at three.

  112. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    some crazy disturbing news here.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/06/16/new-oiler-signee-iiro-pakarinen-sunk-canada-at-the-worlds-this-spring/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter?__federated=1

    ON THE BENCH–Howson said the Oilers are talking to unrestricted free-agent defenceman Fraser’s agent to see if there’s common ground there on a new deal. Fraser who has an ample supply of toughness but could use quicker feet, played 23 games last year, either in a third pairing or as a 7-8 guy.

  113. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    some crazy disturbing news here.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/06/16/new-oiler-signee-iiro-pakarinen-sunk-canada-at-the-worlds-this-spring/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter?__federated=1

    ON THE BENCH–Howson said the Oilers are talking to unrestricted free-agent defenceman Fraser’s agent to see if there’s common ground there on a new deal. Fraser who has an ample supply of toughness but could use quicker feet, played 23 games last year, either in a third pairing or as a 7-8 guy.

    Ugh. Glad I’m reading this on an empty stomach.

    I know Howson gets some credit for putting together the Columbus team that we see today, but he also traded for Jeff Carter before he knew the real value of his 1st round pick (not many predicted that Couturier would fall that far) and signed Wisniewski to a hefty contract.

    If it is Howson’s idea to re-sign Fraser, maybe MacTavish should limit him to scouting catering services.

  114. G Money says:

    bendelson: Might I suggest running a regression analysis of your hairline?

    I tried running a regression analysis of delooper‘s hairline but I kept getting “insufficient data” errors.

  115. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    admiralmark:
    admiralmark: Curious to hear what all the Hemsky proponents out there think of his offer from Ottawa?

    Romulus Apotheosis says:
    June 16, 2014 at 11:52 am

    They have no idea what they are doing and you’ve completely misinterpreted what’s happened.

    Ottawa has no idea or the entire league has no idea? Oilers decided they would rather dump him off to free up cap for next to nothing in return. This after at least 2-3 years of trying to find decent offers from anyone in the league with no buyers. This is indicative of a player that “league wide” holds little value. Ottawa’s offer is just the latest example of how he is viewed by the league. And yet some fans talk about him as though he’s the second coming.

    This is just a complete mis-read of everything as far as I can tell.

    1. Ottawa has no idea what they are doing. Murray seems like a capable GM bottled up and ready to explode under the thumb of a bat-shit insane owner. You may be the only one unaware of this. No one should take this as representative of anything but a complete waste of time by OTT.

    2. The Oilers have criminally mishandled Hemsky since last Spring. If they wanted to trade him they should have. They couldn’t find value. Fine. The league undervalued him in a soft market for free agents.

    What did they do? put him on a checking line all year in order to (fill in blank) his trade value. smart.

    3. They were offered a 2nd and a 4th 2 years ago.

    4. The rest of the league also undervalues him.

    5. Arguments from authority are always poor arguments. Esp. when the authority is the same people that think Shawn Thornton wins cups.

    6. Even in those conditions, the OTT offer is insane. He’ll get much better on the open market.

    7. You’re turning your distaste for Hemsky into hyperbole. No one thinks he’s the “second coming.” He’s a very good hockey player. That’s what he is.

  116. Andy P says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is just a complete mis-read of everything as far as I can tell.

    1. Ottawa has no idea what they are doing. Murray seems like a capable GM bottled up and ready to explode under the thumb of a bat-shit insane owner. You may be the only one unaware of this. No one should take this as representative of anything but a complete waste of time by OTT.

    2. The Oilers have criminally mishandled Hemsky since last Spring. If they wanted to trade him they should have. They couldn’t find value. Fine. The league undervalued him in a soft market for free agents.

    What did they do? put him on a checking line all year in order to (fill in blank) his trade value. smart.

    3. They were offered a 2nd and a 4th 2 years ago.

    4. The rest of the league also undervalues him.

    5. Arguments from authority are always poor arguments. Esp. when the authority is the same people that think Shawn Thornton wins cups.

    6. Even in those conditions, the OTT offer is insane. He’ll get much better on the open market.

    7. You’re turning your distaste for Hemsky into hyperbole. No one thinks he’s the “second coming.” He’s a very good hockey player. That’s what he is.

    I’d suggest we give slack to every underperforming, talented player that played on this team under the Tambo/Smith/Bucky regime.

  117. Marc says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’d be willing to bet that Hemsky gets no more than 2 years and no more than $4M per.

    If there were a player on another team who:
    - was a point a game player five years ago;
    - had a couple of injury blighted seasons;
    - had decent possession numbers but had regressed to .5 points a game over the last two years;
    - suddenly shot back up to a point a game in a small sample size, when paired with a great center; and
    - was on the wrong side of thirty,

    alarm bells would be ringing in terms of a potential new contract, especially if you couldn’t pair him with another great center.

    I think most teams in the league see him as good for 40-50 points per season at best and more likely to get worse than better over the course of the contract. It’s hard to fault that analysis.

  118. Lowetide says:

    I don’t think there’s any way to frame the Ottawa offer as reasonable, fair or acceptable. Hemsky’s contract this coming year is a different item, and we can discuss it for sure.

    The offer by the Senators is fiendish.

  119. OilClog says:

    Marc:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’d be willing to bet that Hemsky gets no more than 2 years and no more than $4M per.

    If there were a player on another team who:
    - was a point a game player five years ago;
    - had a couple of injury blighted seasons;
    - had decent possession numbers but had regressed to .5 points a game over the last two years;
    - suddenly shot back up to a point a game in a small sample size, when paired with a great center; and
    - was on the wrong side of thirty,

    alarm bells would be ringing in terms of a potential new contract, especially if you couldn’t pair him with another great center.

    I think most teams in the league see him as good for 40-50 points per season at best and more likely to get worse than better over the course of the contract. It’s hard to fault that analysis.

    Pretty much Bank that either Detroit or Pittsburg will be offering him 3-4yr deals in the 12-15mil range. It will happen.

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is just a complete mis-read of everything as far as I can tell.

    1. Ottawa has no idea what they are doing. Murray seems like a capable GM bottled up and ready to explode under the thumb of a bat-shit insane owner. You may be the only one unaware of this. No one should take this as representative of anything but a complete waste of time by OTT.

    2. The Oilers have criminally mishandled Hemsky since last Spring. If they wanted to trade him they should have. They couldn’t find value. Fine. The league undervalued him in a soft market for free agents.

    What did they do? put him on a checking line all year in order to (fill in blank) his trade value. smart.

    3. They were offered a 2nd and a 4th 2 years ago.

    4. The rest of the league also undervalues him.

    5. Arguments from authority are always poor arguments. Esp. when the authority is the same people that think Shawn Thornton wins cups.

    6. Even in those conditions, the OTT offer is insane. He’ll get much better on the open market.

    7. You’re turning your distaste for Hemsky into hyperbole. No one thinks he’s the “second coming.” He’s a very good hockey player. That’s what he is.

    5. I’d normally agree other then the fact that every player on that team that won the cup with Thorton disagrees with you.

    Thorton doesn’t win you a cup, but key moments filled by role players is what seperated the champs from the chumps. Thorton was a role player that filled a moment for a championship team when they needed it. That’s the narrative.

  120. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    OilClog: 5. I’d normally agree other then the fact that every player on that team that won the cup with Thorton disagrees with you.
    Thorton doesn’t win you a cup, but key moments filled by role players is what seperated the champs from the chumps. Thorton was a role player that filled a moment for a championship team when they needed it. That’s the narrative.

    Thornton fulfils our fantasy that “even big people can change the world”

    it’s a lunch-pail, working class, narrative.

    The effect of Thornton vis-a-vis Chara, Rask, Thomas, Krejci, Bergeron, etc. is just beyond miniscule. We can safely erase the marginalia referencing him and still watch the Bs hoist a cup.

  121. Marc says:

    Lowetide:
    I don’t think there’s any way to frame the Ottawa offer as reasonable, fair or acceptable. Hemsky’s contract this coming year is a different item, and we can discuss it for sure.

    The offer by the Senators is fiendish.

    Imagine that a future version of the Oilers brought in pending UFA ‘Veteran X’ at the deadline. Veteran X had a track record of producing 40 or so points a seasons, either because of injury or decline in skills from his younger days, when he had a few point a game seasons. He ends up playing with Hall and produces near a point a game for 20 or so games.

    Don’t you think we’d all be very worried about the contract offer to Veteran X? I can just see Jonathan Willis writing something pointing out the risks of relying on a small sample size, and maybe coming up with a list of other players who’d parlayed a good 20 game run into a lucrative UFA contract as a cautionary tale.

    A good GM (and I’m not saying that Ottawa has got one) looks a performance over the past couple years when offering a contract, not just at the last quarter of the season. Based on his last two years Hemsky has probably earned a 2 year $8M or 3 year $10M contract, and I suspect that that’s what he’ll end up getting.

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