CONSIDER THIS

A great item came my way this afternoon courtesy Gus Katsaros, who is McKeen’s Hockey Pro Scouting Coordinator. It’s a beautiful reporting tool that breaks down goals for-against at evens. MEANING we have a junior hockey game state we can compare player to player.

TEAM-BY-TEAM GOAL DIFFERENTIAL

  • KINGSTON FRONTENACS AT EVENS: 216-169 (+47)
  • KOOTENAY ICE AT EVENS: 168-156 (+12)
  • PRINCE ALBERT AT EVENS: 169-191 (-22)

Fascinating. I should have looked at this before, there’s a fairly wide gap at evens for these three teams. The Frontenacs scored 301 goals, which is a big number, but trail a few OHL teams so I didn’t think too much about it. That’s a big item, and something to keep in mind as we evaluate these kids. The Ice are a little better than par, but do not possess the offense Kingston boasts at evens, and the same thing can be said for Prince Albert. The question is, who’s zooming who?

GOALS FOR-GOALS AGAINST ON ICE, BY PLAYER

PPG NAME (LEAGUE) GP PTS ONGF ONGA DIF
1.035 SAM BENNETT, OHL 57 59 80 45 +35
1.05 SAM REINHART, WHL 60 63 75 51 +24
.969 LEON DRAISAITL, WHL 64 62 68 61 +7

Fascinating.It’s important we keep in mind that the three players in question didn’t play the full schedule, but even with that added to the pile this is an exceptionally interesting glance. Bennett’s number is ridiculous, but how does it look in relation to team? Reinhart’s clearly better than his team, and Draisaitl drags a minus even-strength team into the black.

I’m in love with this database and we’ll have plenty of time to suss things out over the piece. Having said that, what do you think? Does this change you thinking, have some impact or none at all?

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106 Responses to "CONSIDER THIS"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Wow… I follow Gus, but must have missed this earlier.

    Holy Shit… Josh Morrisey! 81 ESGF; 75 ESGA

    that’s a really nice player. If those two leave, that PA team is right fucked.

  2. Younger Oil says:

    Sorry, I’m not sure I’m interpreting this right, but does that mean that of the 68 ONGF that Draisaitl was on the ice for, he got points on 62 of them? 91.2%? That is pretty incredible if I’m interpreting it right.

  3. supernova says:

    Fascinating

    First though is line mates and team mates.

    Who is driving the results of each player.

    To my knowledge Kingston has a pretty decent team and more support players.

    Kootenay has a couple little dynamos that play with Samson.

    Leon has what? A #1 d man and a 20 year old that would have been a 3rd liner on the oil kings.

    That is my knowledge on this but this might be great info to get from the guys in each market.

    The case of Ryan Martindale or Sam Gagner comes to mind.

    Samwise had outstanding line mates and a fantastic finisher who has come through huge in the bigs.

    Martindale had a couple of great line mates as well and he looks like a career AHL guy with out them.

    Bennett looks fantastic though

  4. Lowetide says:

    Younger Oil:
    Sorry, I’m not sure I’m interpreting this right, but does that mean that of the 68 ONGF that Draisaitl was on the ice for, he got points on 62 of them? 91.2%? That is pretty incredible if I’m interpreting it right.

    GF ON is goals for while on ice, GA On is goals against. So Draisaitl was on the ice for 68-61 on a team that was flat out terrible.

  5. striatic says:

    I was a little thrown by Button’s list having Reinhart at #1, but these numbers explain a lot.

    It is conceivable that Ekblad will drop in the same way Seth Jones did last year, though moreso.

    Reinhart seems like the kind of guy Edmonton would love to draft but will go 1st overall based on numbers like these, alongside his last name.

    If Reinhart and Bennett go 1/2 – I think Daisaitl is the BPA at #3, and fills a positional need for a large C.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Younger Oil:
    Sorry, I’m not sure I’m interpreting this right, but does that mean that of the 68 ONGF that Draisaitl was on the ice for, he got points on 62 of them? 91.2%? That is pretty incredible if I’m interpreting it right.

    good eye!

    yes. that sounds right.

    IPP (individual points percentage)

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/12/individual-point-percentage-for-2011-12

    http://battleofalberta.blogspot.ca/2009/11/points-v-scoring.html

  7. Younger Oil says:

    Lowetide: GF ON is goals for while on ice, GA On is goals against. So Draisaitl was on the ice for 68-61 on a team that was flat out terrible.

    Mhmm, that’s what I thought, but it also says he got 62 points on those 68 goals he was on for, doesn’t it? To me, that’s almost even more impressive.

  8. Caramel Obvious says:

    This makes Draisatl look good to my cursory eye.

    Bennett and Draisatl are a clear step ahead of Reinhart now, in my opinion. And, of course, the defenseman doesn’t even rate.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: good eye!

    yes. that sounds right.

    IPP (individual points percentage)

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/12/individual-point-percentage-for-2011-12

    http://battleofalberta.blogspot.ca/2009/11/points-v-scoring.html

    If I’ve understood this right

    Two things are clear…

    1. the offence (as far as forwards go) is almost exclusively going through Draisaitl (we kinda already knew this).

    2. he may be due for a regression as that is still a really high number (we saw Hall be absurdly over 100% this year)

  10. Lowetide says:

    Younger Oil: Mhmm, that’s what I thought, but it also says he got 62 points on those 68 goals he was on for, doesn’t it? To me, that’s almost even more impressive.

    Oh right, I’m an idiot. Yes, it means exactly as you say. Incredible resource, I’ll be divorced by midnight. My dog is practically throwing her hedgehog in my face, but I remain focused.

  11. Rondo says:

    DRAISAITL did get better as the season went on, is there a way to do this for the 2nd half of the season.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Connor McDavid: 81-33.

  13. Younger Oil says:

    Lowetide: Oh right, I’m an idiot. Yes, it means exactly as you say. Incredible resource, I’ll be divorced by midnight. My dog is practically throwing her hedgehog in my face, but I remain focused.

    No worries! Thanks for clarifying it!

  14. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    DRAISAITL did get better as the season went on, is therea way to do this for the 2nd half of the season.

    30-21 in Feb and March
    18-5 in March only

    So, yeah.

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo:
    DRAISAITL did get better as the season went on, is therea way to do this for the 2nd half of the season.

    Sept 12 – Dec 31 – 31ESFG 30ESGA
    Jan 1 – Mar 17 – 37ESGF 31ESGA

  16. fifthcartel says:

    Greg Chase – 73ESGF – 46ESGA

    I’m not sure but this looks promising, right?

  17. One-Timer says:

    Lowetide: GF ON is goals for while on ice, GA On is goals against. So Draisaitl was on the ice for 68-61 on a team that was flat out terrible.

    I think YO was comparing EVP to ONGF, giving him the 91.2% contribution rate at evens. Makes me want to see Leon in the oildrop just that much more.

    Taking the BPA is logical if you are guaranteed to convert that into GTN at full value. (Greatest Team Need: just made that up). Sadly, there’s no guarantee, and in making the transaction somewhere down the road, you risk losing more value than the diff between BPA at #3 and LD, who might be the consensus 4 or 5.

    If we need a big C with hands and eyes, well there he is! I think we’ll be very happy with our future Spezza-like center.

  18. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    There is no way to turn a high IPP into a bad thing. Only elite players have high IPP. What regresses isn’t the performance of the player, it is the performance of his teammates (up), so the lower IPP the next year does not necessarily come with lower absolute performance.

    The one exception to this would be if someone had a higher proportion of secondary assists. That might regress (which is the Taylor Hall problem).

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    just in case people missed it hopping onto the new thread, my post on Bailey and Nelson

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/islanders-bailey-nelson/

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    There is no way to turn a high IPP into a bad thing.Only elite players have high IPP.What regresses isn’t the performance of the player, it is the performance of his teammates (up), so the lower IPP the next year does not necessarily come with lower absolute performance.

    The one exception to this would be if someone had a higher proportion of secondary assists.That might regress (which is the Taylor Hall problem).

    Sure. But I didn’t turn it into a bad thing.

    I said he may be due for a regression.

    I didn’t guarantee it and I didn’t say it would likely be huge or anything.

    IF you look at SR’s post from NHLnumbers, the top players are in the upper 80%.

    To be c. 91% is a shade high, even for elite players.

  21. supernova says:

    Can someone tell me if I am thinking of this right.

    Bennett’s team 216 EV G
    Bennett on ice for 80 , and ends up with 59 Points

    He is on the ice for 37% of the teams EVG and has a IPP of 74%

    Leon
    Team 169
    On ice 68 and he has 62

    He in on the ice for 40.2 % of the team and has a IPP of 91.2%

    Reinhart
    Team 168
    On ice 75 and he gets 63

    On ice for 44.6 % of the team EVG and has a IPP of 84%

    If this matters at all, I would think

    Bennett is on the highest scoring team and is factor in scoring but has better line mates and doesn’t have to be the sole point getter.

    Reinhart is on a one line team and drives the play but has a talented line mate

    Leon is a one line team maybe one and half but he drives the scoring.

  22. godot10 says:

    Younger Oil:
    Sorry, I’m not sure I’m interpreting this right, but does that mean that of the 68 ONGF that Draisaitl was on the ice for, he got points on 62 of them? 91.2%? That is pretty incredible if I’m interpreting it right.

    No. It means that he was riding an unsustainably high IPP this season, and will likely regress.

    Taylor Hall’s abysmal Corsi (and his regression as a player under Eakins this year) was masked by an incredibly high IPP.

    (i.e. we have 4 years of data for Hall, so one can hypothesize that he was lucky this year in IPP terms)

    An unusuallly high IPP should be a flashing yellow unless it has been done for four or five years in row.

  23. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    Can someone tell me if I am thinking of this right.

    Bennett’s team 216 EV G
    Bennett on ice for 80 , and ends up with 59 Points

    He is on the ice for 37% of the teams EVG and has a IPP of 74%

    Leon
    Team 169
    On ice68 and he has 62

    He in on the ice for 40.2% of the team and has a IPP of 91.2%

    Reinhart
    Team 168
    On ice 75 and he gets 63

    On ice for 44.6 % of the team EVG and has a IPP of84%

    If this matters at all, I would think

    Bennett is on the highest scoring team and is factor in scoring but has better line mates and doesn’t have to be the sole point getter.

    Reinhart is on a one line team and drives the play but has a talented line mate

    Leon is a one line team maybe one and half but he drives the scoring.

    This is my take, but based on this thread it’s not a universal reading. Which, when you think about it, is typical. :-)

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: No.It means that he was riding an unsustainably high IPP this season, and will likely regress.

    Taylor Hall’s abysmal Corsi (and his regression as a player under Eakins this year) was masked by an incredibly high IPP.

    An unusuallly high IPP should be a flashing yellow unless it has been done for four or five years in row.

    That is absurd.

    IPP can’t mask Corsi.

    Scoring and shots can’t mask each other.

    The problem with Hall’s IPP was that he got points for goals scored while he wasn’t on the ice (ie, made a pass, went to the bench, got an assist).

  25. supernova says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide: This is my take, but based on this thread it’s not a universal reading. Which, when you think about it, is typical.

    This is really fascinating.

    I wonder how this stakes up to other top 5 picks.

    My early conclusion is the oilers best option is Leon.

    They need a second line scorer that drives possession when hall and Eberle aren’t there.

    If these underlying numbers are any sort of Predictors that’s what Leon is.

    Add in the size and it looks like 2 & 2 make 4 to me

  26. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That is absurd.

    IPP can’t mask Corsi.

    Scoring and shots can’t mask each other.

    The problem with Hall’s IPP was that he got points for goals scored while he wasn’t on the ice (ie, made a pass, went to the bench, got an assist).

    Hall Corsi regression meant that he should have had a point regression also, but he didn’t because he was lucky, and thus, his IPP skyrocketed to unsustainable levels last year.

    If his points would have followed his Corsi regression, there would have been panic in Edmonton last winter, well even more panic. But Hall was lucky. His points didn’t follow his Corsi regression. Hall and the Oilers might not be so lucky next year.

    A high IPP is like a high shooting percentage. It is suspect until it has been done for several seasons in a row.

    So Draisaitl is not only one of the oldest players, he had an abnormally high IPP. 2 flashing yellows against.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BTW can anyone get the team links for the 2013 season?

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?season=2013

    whenever I try to adjust for a specific team it hops back to 2014

  28. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Romulus Apotheosis: That is absurd.

    IPP can’t mask Corsi.

    Scoring and shots can’t mask each other.

    The problem with Hall’s IPP was that he got points for goals scored while he wasn’t on the ice (ie, made a pass, went to the bench, got an assist).

    This is unsustainable but can also be a skill.

    He left the next line in a position to succeed. Nothing wrong with that but he has little control to keep it up.

    Maybe similar to Horcoff digging in the corners on the pp but not getting a point, or Smitty getting the crap beat out of him in front of the net but not getting a point.

    All could be skills but the reward comes differently.

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: Hall Corsi regression meant that he should have had a point regression also, but he didn’t because he was lucky, and thus, his IPP skyrocketed to unsustainable levels last year.

    If his points would have followed his Corsi regression, there would have been panic in Edmonton last winter, well even more panic.But Hall was lucky.His points didn’t follow his Corsi regression.Hall and the Oilers might not be so lucky next year.

    That’s a perception not a reality-based argument.

    I have no problem with it. average folks value points not just over other stats but to the exclusion of any other stats.

    That’s their problem.

  30. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    Lowetide,

    This is really fascinating.

    I wonder how this stakes up to other top 5 picks.

    My early conclusion is the oilers best option is Leon.

    They need a second line scorer that drives possession when hall and Eberle aren’t there.

    If these underlying numbers are any sort of Predictors that’s what Leon is.

    Add in the size and it looks like 2 & 2 make 4 to me

    Reinhart and Leon by my eye. They both benefit, Leon more because his team is ghastly. Reinhart is more interesting now imo.

  31. PunjabiOil says:

    I wasn’t overly bullish on Draisaitl, but it is clear he driving the bus in PA. He still has alot of question marks (skating, older prospect), but given Lowetide’s recent article that questions Ekblad’s upside and even-strength prowess, I think I would be content drafting Draisaitl over Ekblad at #3

    1. Reinhart
    2. Bennett
    3. Draisaitl
    4. Ekblad

  32. Lowetide says:

    PunjabiOil:
    I wasn’t overly bullish on Draisaitl, but it is clear he driving the bus in PA.He still has alot of question marks (skating, older prospect), but given Lowetide’s recent article that questions Ekblad’s upside and even-strength prowess, I think I would be content drafting Draisaitl over Ekblad at #3

    1. Reinhart
    2. Bennett
    3. Draisaitl
    4. Ekblad

    The Ferraro article on Ekblad? Well, I’d caution any one to read too much into it. Ferraro is wicked smart but he’s not a scout and can’t project these guys forward. In light of this new info I’d be inclined to drop Bennett, but we’ll see on Monday.

  33. striatic says:

    This analysis doesn’t do Bennett any favours relative to the other top prospects, which he may need after pull-up-gate.

  34. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: The Ferraro article on Ekblad? Well, I’d caution any one to read too much into it. Ferraro is wicked smart but he’s not a scout and can’t project these guys forward. In light of this new info I’d be inclined to drop Bennett, but we’ll see on Monday.

    PO means the EV vs PP scoring from the same article:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2014/06/ekblad-the-new-souray.html

    That Seth Jones number is killer and makes the others look a little off the map.

  35. striatic says:

    PunjabiOil: given Lowetide’s recent article that questions Ekblad’s upside and even-strength prowess, I think I would be content drafting Draisaitl over Ekblad at #3

    That article and this one have done a lot to put the 3OV selection into focus for me. Great stuff.

    Going in based on gut feeling, I would have put Ekblad and Bennett ahead of Reinhart and Draisaitl, but these 2 excellent posts have changed my outlook completely.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: PO means the EV vs PP scoring from the same article:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2014/06/ekblad-the-new-souray.html

    That Seth Jones number is killer and makes the others look a little off the map.

    Christ! I’m missing everything. Okay,, yes. Jesus.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Nurse barely over 1, but I imagine that has to do with the toughs.

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?league=2&team=18

  38. PunjabiOil says:

    The Ferraro article on Ekblad? Well, I’d caution any one to read too much into it. Ferraro is wicked smart but he’s not a scout and can’t project these guys forward. In light of this new info I’d be inclined to drop Bennett, but we’ll see on Monday.

    Not Ferraro’s comments themselves, but the lack of Ekblad’s even strength scoring despite significant TOI is a bit of a red flag. Coupled with some concerns about his skating, and part of his success based on a size mismatch at junior, and general inherent premium risk in taking defencemen….and suddenly Draisaitl looks more attractive.

  39. sliderule says:

    Lowetide your favorite GM just visited Kingston after combine.

    You tell me does that mean anything?

  40. godot10 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    The Ferraro article on Ekblad? Well, I’d caution any one to read too much into it. Ferraro is wicked smart but he’s not a scout and can’t project these guys forward. In light of this new info I’d be inclined to drop Bennett, but we’ll see on Monday.

    Not Ferraro’s comments themselves, but the lack of Ekblad’s even strength scoring despite significant TOI is a bit of a red flag.Coupled with some concerns about his skating, and part of his success based on a size mismatch at junior, and general inherent premium risk in taking defencemen….and suddenly Draisaitl looks more attractive.

    For most defensemen, goal differential at even strength is probably far more important than even strength points.

    If Ekblad is the guy behind the net breaking the cycle and then feeding the outlet pass to the forward exiting the zone, it is unlikely he is going to be the guy getting an assist on the play but it will show up in goal differential.

  41. Caramel Obvious says:

    In case anyone was wondering, Godot has no idea how IPP% works or what it represents.

    It is a very strange phenomenon to watch people try and turn getting points into a bad thing. If team Ascores three goals and player Ascore all three goals he will have a 100% IPP. If player B scores three goals, his team scores ten, and he’s on the ice for six, he will have a 50% IPP.

    The next week they are on different teams. Which player is more likely to score three goals? What will their IPP be?

    That’s what this amounts to. Player B’s IPP is going to regress up, Player A’s will regress down, but that tells you nothing about player A or player B, or which is most likely to score three goals again.

    That IPP% regresses tells you nothing about the players involved. What the numbers above tell you is that Draisatl scored almost as good as Bennett and Reinhart on a much worse team. That’s relevant.

  42. PunjabiOil says:

    For most defensemen, goal differential at even strength is probably far more important than even strength points.

    If Ekblad is the guy behind the net breaking the cycle and then feeding the outlet pass to the forward exiting the zone, it is unlikely he is going to be the guy getting an assist on the play but it will show up in goal differential.

    True, but with a 3rd overall pick, you also want a guy moving the dial offensively.

    If his offense is coming from the fact he’s a trigger man on the point – it’s definitely concerning. See Sheldon Souray’s beauty 2007 and and 2009 season.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=14090

    Not overly sustainable.

    Not saying Ekblad is a bad prospect, but the Oilers have to aim for higher at 3rd OV IMO.

  43. Maverick says:

    Wow!
    This new database is like a new toy! I think we have all looked up all the Oilers prospects and the undrafted players in the upcoming draft. Another great tool for research.

    Just for curiosity is there a list of unsigned players that are re-entering the draft? Wondering how these players would look in the database and to see if any are worth drafting again?

  44. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: For most defensemen, goal differential at even strength is probably far more important than even strength points.

    If Ekblad is the guy behind the net breaking the cycle and then feeding the outlet pass to the forward exiting the zone, it is unlikely he is going to be the guy getting an assist on the play but it will show up in goal differential.

    here you go

    69 61

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?team=1

  45. rich says:

    Not to threadjack here, but I do hope that MacT is watching the Kings v. Rangers tonight. Our friend Matt Greene is having a brutal game. He’s been slow, overcommitted and beaten like a rented mule.

    Love his toughness, but no thanks.

  46. Lowetide says:

    rich:
    Not to threadjack here, but I do hope that MacT is watching the Kings v. Rangers tonight.Our friend Matt Greene is having a brutal game.He’s been slow, overcommitted and beaten like a rented mule.

    Love his toughness, but no thanks.

    Stralman is GOD!

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One way to think of Draisaitl’s IPP situation is this.

    Let’s say he gets the same kind of forward/team support other teams enjoy.

    His IPP% almost assuredly will drop. But, his actual point total (at evens) probably won’t.

    His team will be scoring more goals. He just won’t figure in on such a high percentage of them.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    One way to think of Draisaitl’s IPP situation is this.

    Let’s say he gets the same kind of forward/team support other teams enjoy.

    His IPP% almost assuredly will drop. But, his actual point total (at evens) probably won’t.

    His team will be scoring more goals. He just won’t figure in on such a high percentage of them.

    Yes. Just like Hall’s point total will have sustain, but this past season’s silliness will be gone.

  49. Barcs says:

    Lowetide:
    Connor McDavid: 81-33.

    My internal struggle:

    “I definitely DO NOT want the Oilers to suck next year.

    ….that McDavid kid though……

    No…no, I definitely don’t want to suck next year.

    Winning that lotto though…..”

    And on and on it goes.

  50. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    One way to think of Draisaitl’s IPP situation is this.

    Let’s say he gets the same kind of forward/team support other teams enjoy.

    His IPP% almost assuredly will drop. But, his actual point total (at evens) probably won’t.

    His team will be scoring more goals. He just won’t figure in on such a high percentage of them.

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Switch out Leon with say Malkin, Crosby, Stamkos (not saying Leon is them)

    As their teams get better they don’t nessecarily get a lower IPP they get a lower percantage of team EVG.

    Fair,

  51. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    supernova: Romulus Apotheosis,

    Switch out Leon with say Malkin, Crosby, Stamkos (not saying Leon is them)

    As their teams get better they don’t nessecarily get a lower IPP they get a lower percantage of team EVG.

    Fair,

    You’re saying

    1. crap team
    2. trade great player (Draisaitl) for absurd elite player (Malkin)
    3. team gets better from having absurd elite player
    4 Malkin remains at really high IPP?

    I don’t think that’s what you mean… but I’m a few beers in and you may have to hold my hand on this one…

    please try again. I’m genuinely curious to sort out what you’re after here.

  52. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Hall’s IPP was high because of second assists , basically he passed the puck and skated off.

    Does Halls get lower if there is a Malkin on the team?

    Halls gets lower because it is seemingly unsustainable but doesn’t necessarily get lower because of Malkin.

    Maybe Malkin helps his IPP maybe he hurts it.

    Same for Leon,

    Looking at this Mckeens thing there are plenty of players on the OIl kings and Geulph Storm that have a high EV GF vs EV GA, that aren’t elite players.

    This EV GF vs EV GA is another tool in the tool belt just like IPP, Corsi Rel, etc

    Leon could have a High IPP on a really good team or on a bad team.

    Maybe I have had a few too many as well but I don’t think adding good players equals a lower IPP immediatly

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    supernova:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Hall’s IPP was high because of second assists , basically he passed the puck and skated off.

    Does Halls get lower if there is a Malkin on the team?

    Halls gets lower because it is seemingly unsustainable but doesn’t necessarily get lower because of Malkin.

    Maybe Malkin helps his IPP maybe he hurts it.

    Same for Leon,

    Looking at this Mckeens thing there are plenty of players on the OIl kings and Geulph Storm that have a high EV GF vs EV GA, that aren’t elite players.

    This EV GF vs EV GA is another tool in the tool belt just like IPP, Corsi Rel, etc

    Leon could have a High IPP on a really good team or on a bad team.

    Maybe I have had a few too many as well but I don’t think adding good players equals a lower IPP immediatly

    Ok… before I get really confused, let me try something.

    lets say there are two hypothetical teams of 5 players

    Team X has one Malkin and 4 Craig Adamses

    Team Y has 5 Malkins

    The Malkin in team X is extraordinarily likely to have an absurdly high IPP (in fact less than 100% is doubtful).

    An individual Malkin from team Y is going to have to assume the points are evenly distributed among the Malkins and therefore that he is not credited a point on each goal.

    extrapolating, we can assume that really good players on a really good teams see their IPP distributed more evenly, even if they do favor the elite.

  54. speeds says:

    Will be curious to see what Petan’s numbers look like next year if he doesn’t crack WPG, pretty good numbers this year

  55. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Ok… before I get really confused, let me try something.

    lets say there are two hypothetical teams of 5 players

    Team X has one Malkin and 4 Craig Adamses

    Team Y has 5 Malkins

    The Malkin in team X is extraordinarily likely to have an absurdly high IPP (in fact less than 100% is doubtful).

    An individual Malkin from team Y is going to have to assume the points are evenly distributed among the Malkins and therefore that he is not credited a point on each goal.

    extrapolating, we can assume that really good players on a really good teams see their IPP distributed more evenly, even if they do favor the elite.

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    What I am saying is goal scoring rates should go up the more elite players you have ( or even really good players)

    Not saying team Y is 5 times the scoring rate as team X

    I am saying for a team to build and get better they need separate units scoring so it is plausible that player A has a high IPP on a bad team. that bad team adds a good player. Player A can keep the same IPP because the new player could be on a different line and also have a high IPP, the team just scores more.

    An example with 1 Malkin versus 5 Malkins is an exaggeration.

    Crosby and Malkin have high IPP’s adding Joe Thornton shouldn’t mean they lower theirs.

    Halls IPP will likely regress on its own but adding a good player shouldn’t lower his.

    Leon getting more support in PA shouldn’t equal a lower IPP.

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    holmberg is interesting

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?team=40

    25% of his teams goals. nuts!

    but! he’s not as impressive an ev scorer as the top 3.

    72 33-28-61 (.847)

    however, that’s better than I expected to be honest.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    supernova: Romulus Apotheosis,

    What I am saying is goal scoring rates should go up the more elite players you have ( or even really good players)

    Not saying team Y is 5 times the scoring rate as team X

    I am saying for a team to build and get better they need separate units scoring so it is plausible that player A has a high IPP on a bad team. that bad team adds a good player. Player A can keep the same IPP because the new player could be on a different line and also have a high IPP, the team just scores more.

    An example with 1 Malkin versus 5 Malkins is an exaggeration.

    Crosby and Malkin have high IPP’s adding Joe Thornton shouldn’t mean they lower theirs.

    Halls IPP will likely regress on its own but adding a good player shouldn’t lower his.

    Leon getting more support in PA shouldn’t equal a lower IPP.

    Ah. I see what you are doing now.

    Yes. I agree.

    But only insofar as you are assuming “better team” means the new players aren’t on the ice at the same time as our ringer.

    Sure, If you add some great players, but they aren’t on the ice with our ringer it won’t affect his IPP.

    But, we’re talking about lending our ringer some linemates with some scoring touch of their own.

    Ok, so they aren’t all Malkins. But they are good players.

    It seems impossible to me that you can upgrade the quality of the other 4 players on the ice and not see our ringer’s IPP drop.

    Over time the other 4 players are bound to hook up on goals that do not lead to our ringer gaining points.

    ——–
    the 5 Malkins is meant to be an exaggeration. hyperbole can dramatize a point (though sometimes it just clouds the issue). in this case, it helped me sort out how I think this works.

  58. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yep, get what you where doing with 5 Malkins but i needed to clarify,

    Sure over time they will hook up, maybe I am thinking of the Oilers.

    They have one line but they need two. Adding a second should only help the individual players on line 1.

    By the way,

    Is it just me or posting this stuff from Mckeens with out team EV G or other numbers. looks like the much maligned +/- stat.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    supernova: Yep, get what you where doing with 5 Malkins but i needed to clarify,
    Sure overtime they will hook up, maybe I am thinking of the Oilers.
    They have one line but they need two. Adding a second should only help the individual players on line 1.

    yea. I think we are on the same page now.

    supernova: By the way,
    Is it just me or posting this stuff from Mckeens with out team EV G or other numbers. looks like the much maligned +/- stat.

    no. you are right. it’s basically +/- (though I don’t know if they’ve included empty net goals which +/- does).

    how it’s a little different is just that we are looking at the raw data here AND the differential, not just the differential. And we are comparing that to the team’s goal data and differential and looking at other factors like IPP.

    But, yes… we haven’t really broken any true ground here, like say shots or TOI as far as Junior is concerned (though the Q tracks shot totals).

  60. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    agreed, that’s what I was meaning.

    It’s a deeper look but without more of the numbers that even Mckeens provides it isn’t to appealing.

  61. SaskFan says:

    The way I look at this information is that Bennet (player with the lowest IPP) is dominating the Possesion battle.

    I kind of think of it similarly to a comparison of Shultz and Petry, Shultz has better boxcars but worse goal/Corsi differential. Petry has worse boxcars but much better underlying numbers and goal differential. Bennet isn’t scoring at the IPP rate Draisitl is but his team is scoring much more when he is on the ice. Now the question is, is Bennet’s team scoring more goals with him on the ice because Bennet is sooo good that he keeps the puck in the offensive end? (keeping Possesion) And is he scoring at a lower IPP rate because he has better teammates so everything doesn’t have to flow through him? Or is him driving the Corsi allowing his teammates more opportunities to score and which would lower his IPP?

  62. SaskFan says:

    Re-read my post, sorry it was kinda rambly but what I was trying to get at is that I think it’s more valuable to have a guy that scores fewer points but has a very good Corsi than a guy who scores more points but has a ghastly Corsi. In the end I seriously don’t care who cares who scores the goals for my team as long as they score lots and the former contributes much more to winning than the latter.

  63. supernova says:

    SaskFan,

    Sure, but we are trying to determine which of the available players is capable of driving the play and scoring.

    Clearly Bennett has a deeper team but we are still gathering info.

    Is Bennett doing the dirty work and not getting points? Like Smitty on the PP

    Maybe

    Rom and I were just stating its a deeper look not everything.

    Do you have access to Corsi stats for the junior leagues that are solid?

  64. Henry says:

    This data is interesting but to me it suggests that each of these players is terrific and a good bet. Before we discard Bennett, we should consider that had enough ice time to be on for 80 of 216 or 37% of the EV goals for but was not scored on much at all. 45/169 = 26%. It makes sense that if he is not on a one line team, he may actually be facing PVP fairly frequently and crushing it. This is sort of, kind of the sort of guy I’d want as my 2C.

    Leon is clearly the best guy on a bad team. While I don’t know anything about his QoC of course, if I’m coaching against a one line team, I put my defensive guys on their best line and try to crush the rest. Leon’s EVGA of 61/191 = 32% looks pretty good considering the ice time he likely gets but Bennett looks like a very nice and possibly superior defensive C by these numbers.

  65. theres oil in virginia says:

    OT: My 6-year-old son said while watching the hockey game tonight (past his bedtime), “This hockey is really good.” I think he just wanted to stay up a little longer. Then he said, “I’m voting for the black team to win. (Kings) I think I’m gonna be a hockey player when I grow up.” I said, “Well, then we don’t have to worry about whether your front teeth are gonna come in or not, right?” (He’s just lost his two front teeth.) “Ha ha, dad. Very funny. When I’m a hockey player, I’m gonna find out what team 28 King (Jarret Stoll) plays for and I’m gonna play for that team. I like him.” “I like him too. He used to play for a good team.”

    I got a kick outta that.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    SaskFan:
    The way I look at this information is that Bennet (player with the lowest IPP) is dominating the Possesion battle.

    I kind of think of it similarly to a comparison of Shultz and Petry, Shultz has better boxcars but worse goal/Corsi differential.Petry has worse boxcars but much better underlying numbers and goal differential.Bennet isn’t scoring at the IPP rate Draisitl is but his team is scoring much more when he is on the ice.Now the question is, is Bennet’s team scoring more goals with him on the ice because Bennet is sooo good that he keeps the puck in the offensive end? (keeping Possesion) And is he scoring at a lower IPP rate because he has better teammates so everything doesn’t have to flow through him? Or is him driving the Corsi allowing his teammates more opportunities to score and which would lower his IPP?

    the problem here is that we don’t have the corsi data (or even shots) to follow through on your hypothesis.

    But, I don’t think the logic of your argument follows… If you are instrumental in driving corsi numbers up, over time that should correlate to points earned on goals scored. You have the puck all the time, therefore, you are highly likely to have more touches than your linemates and to earn points on goals.

    ———–

    One thing we can do is look at his linemates:

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?team=6

    Bennett: 59 EV Points; ESGF:80 ESGA: 45 (74% IPP)
    Ikonen: 48 EV Points; ESGF: 67 ESGA: 50 (72%)
    Watson: 55 EV Points; ESGF: 77 ESGA: 44 (72%)

    So… it seems like all 3 are pretty balanced here in terms of IPP%

  67. Lowetide says:

    Ladies, I think Bennett is not No. 1

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BTW… shit… Spencer Watson looks nice!

    boxcars: 65 33-35-68 (1.046 PPG)
    EVENS: 65 28-27-55 (0.846 PPG)

    GD/Vollman NHLE: 25.7 points/82

    late April b-day.

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=189462

    https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/buzzing-the-net/nhl-draft-tracker-spencer-watson-kingston-frontenacs-192714921.html

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

    I don’t know if he lasts until we can take a stab at him… but, looks like an interesting prospect.

    might be concern about “zooming” by Bennett and he’s small too.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    BTW… shit… Spencer Watson looks nice!

    boxcars: 6533-35-68 (1.046 PPG)
    EVENS: 65 28-27-55 (0.846 PPG)

    GD/Vollman NHLE: 25.7 points/82

    late April b-day.

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=189462

    https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/buzzing-the-net/nhl-draft-tracker-spencer-watson-kingston-frontenacs-192714921.html

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

    I don’t know if he lasts until we can take a stab at him… but, looks like an interesting prospect.

    might be concern about “zooming” by Bennett and he’s small too.

    I liked him plenty.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2014/05/entry-draft-14-oilers-and-the-ohl.html

  70. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    yea… no way this kid is around unless he falls as hard as Rajala did in his draft year

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=112660

    just hadn’t really looked at him before.

    that’s an impressive feat for Kingston though. Two of their top players are 18 year olds running their top line.

  71. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I liked him plenty.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2014/05/entry-draft-14-oilers-and-the-ohl.html

    I don’t know how you keep track of all these names LT.

    Seriously. I forget my neighbor’s name most days.

    In two weeks I’ll probably forget all about this and post about how good this Watson kid playing with Bennett looks!

  72. spoiler says:

    From Friedman’s 30 earlier today:

    Teams needing change don’t like what’s available in free agency, with one exec calling it, “the weakest group we’ve seen.” So, they’re going to be aggressive in trades, hoping they can address their issues in advance.

  73. SaskFan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I agree with you that we would definitely need shots or ice time to really tell.

    I remember reading some article about Nurse and how with a number data base similar to this they figured out that Nurse had averaged about 27 minutes a night. The greyhounds then tweeted them confirming that he played about 27 minutes a night. (27:12 if memory serves).

    So what I was wondering was if anyone knew where to find the article or if they had the mathematical formula to determine the time on ice.

  74. Rondo says:

    SaskFan:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I agree with you that we would definitely need shots or ice time to really tell.

    I remember reading some article about Nurse and how with a number data base similar to this they figured out that Nurse had averaged about 27 minutes a night.The greyhounds then tweeted them confirming that he played about 27 minutes a night. (27:12 if memory serves).

    So what I was wondering was if anyone knew where to find the article or if they had the mathematical formula to determine the time on ice.

    This is the article I believe

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nurse-makes-good-on-promise-to-dominate-ohl/

  75. Racki says:

    Robby Fabri?

    Quite the margin of On ice ES GF to GA (of course on a good team though, but still quite the gap)

    Ditto Ehlers, but he also played on a great team.

    Actually, looks like that’s pretty common on their teams.

  76. SaskFan says:

    Rondo,

    Hmm, No I was looking for a different article. In it they go through how to figure out about how time a player plays. I think it came out about 2/3′s of the way though the year or it might have been about Nurse’s 2013 year, I can’t remember.

  77. spoiler says:

    This is a neat tool, very quick and but plenty dirty, and as already noted we’re missing important context.

    For eg, is that raw GAON number for Draisaitl notably worse than the other two candidates, or is it a function of TOI? Was he facing shutdown lines most of the time, or going PvP? Which end of the rink were they spending most of their time? From where did they start? How good of a save percentage did he get behind him at EVs? …And how good are your linemates’ Corgis and how well are they shooting, for the flip side?

    A caution… Some of the date is a bit wonky(I’m pretty sure Morrissey is a D) and some of the queries don’t pull properly (Draisaitl doesn’t show with Reinhart on the LateBDs table). And you have to keep in mind the percentages on the tables are annual, and not just for when the player was in the line-up.

    As an aside, I don’t think Draisaitl’s teammates were that much different from Bennett’s in quality after they added PPG forward Valcourt for the last half of the season. His point total over both teams was 72.

  78. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: Ladies, I think Bennett is not No. 1

    I for one agree .Bennett may drop to #4 or lower .Reinhart Is #1 for sure and I wouldn’t be surprised if Leon goes at #2 . Question LT . What does McT do if Leon is gone . My GUESS is trade the pick as I think he skips both Ekblad & Bennett .

  79. SaskFan says:

    I didn’t find the link I was looking for but I did find a few other similar articles that were basically the same thing.

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/26/4455830/draft-prospect-toi-quality-of-competition

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/8/22/2378064/how-well-do-scoring-events-reflect-ice-time

    These are the estimated even strength times on ice:

    Bennet:14.92-18.92

    Reinhart:16.4-20.4

    Draisitl:18.74-22.74

    I think Draisitls numbers might be a tad wonky due to the size chasm of skill levels on his team because this formula is based on the assumption that a player will score or have scoring events ate the same rate as the team, that’s why there is the give or take 2 minutes.

  80. Big Dan says:

    I hope MacT is working the phones and able to parlay that pick (yawn) into a Jordan Staal or Mike Richards. If the Oilers actually make the pick, I’ll be pissed. Drafts bore me silly now. We have to start winning NOW.

    I heard MacT is actually extending Buchberger’s contract while guys like Nelson and Laxdal will leave soon and guys like Bylsma and Muller are unemployed. Lordy, how depressing. Keep rushing the kids in and give them no guidance.

    Instead, I’ll choose to dream that MacT is able to add a tough, two-way veteran to eat up ice time against #1 lines and provide leadership and make this team FINALLY competitive.

    If that happens, then I won’t care as much if Gagner is traded for magic beans (2nd and 3rd rounder), as rumored. I have more faith in Stu now that Tambo isn’t there whispering in his ear to waste 2nd and 3rd rounders on Coke machines.

    But MacT, despite being a very smart man in my opinion, won’t pull it off… and that old familiar feeling of disappointment will return once again. I’ll watch guys like Stralman sign elsewhere while Engelland and Greene continue the Oiler tradition of sucktitude.

    C’mon MacT, you’re on a winning streak lately (Fasth, Scrivens, Hendricks, Perron, Horak-someday) after a brutal start resigning the likes of Grebeshkov, Jones, Gagner, MacIntyre, and choosing Labarbera over Khudonin/Greiss. Don’t ruin it by passing on so many good coaching candidates!

    Guys like Toews were successful because Chicago picked up guys like Sharp and Hossa to lead him as he developed. There are plenty of options right now for the Oil to do the same… and they have a sexy pick he can use as bait.

  81. Deadman Waiting says:

    godot10:
    Hall Corsi regression meant that he should have had a point regression also, but he didn’t because he was lucky, and thus, his IPP skyrocketed to unsustainable levels last year.

    One can just as easily interpret that as Hall successfully drinking Eakins’ kill-switch Kool-Aid.

    Say Hall begins to successfully recognize the bottom quartile of his scoring opportunities as having a low likelihood of actually scoring vs a high risk of feeding into an odd-man counter rush.

    Suppose he kills the shooting option four times for every 2-on-1 he prevents going back the other direction. One would expect to see a larger decline in his Corgi than in his IPP. Especially if the kill switch is attached to a safe dump and prompt line change. Unlike Sergei Kostitsyn I’m guessing Hall stays on the ice in the cases where he elects to take a risky shot and it does immediately turn around and go the other way on a fast break.

    We know for certain that Eakins was messing with Hall’s head early in the season to modify the risk-reward profile of Hall’s attacking style. Then there was evidence on the ice that this was throwing the baby out with the bathwater, so they came to a different agreement about these modifications. Maybe by the end of the season, Hall had adopted the good half of Eakins coaching instruction, and discarded that part that didn’t work out.

    This is the same process whereby ambitious novelists follow a best-seller with something that stretches their own boundaries (and maybe doesn’t succeed) then writes another best-seller based on the personal growth attained from the risk that went sideways (in commercial terms).

    Of course this looks bad in the marketplace. Stephen King wanted to try some new things so he snuck onto the ice as dump-and-chase Richard Bachman (a few years later Bachman came down with cancer of the pseudonym and passed away). On a side note, King was drinking so heavily at one point, he barely recalls writing Cujo at all.

    There’s one novel, Cujo, that I barely remember writing at all. I don’t say that with pride or shame, only with a vague sense of sorrow and loss.

    That’s probably not the right way to explore your boundaries and expand your horizons, but hey, why mess with success?

    Personally, I’m all for Eakins pushing the guys out of their comfort (and ELC success) zones. True resilience comes from not being dependent on tracking within one particular groove.

    Becoming a well-rounded player does crimp the style (for at least a while) of the one trick pony thundering over the great prairie of lather, rinse, and repeat.

  82. Lowetide says:

    Hammers: I for one agree .Bennett may drop to #4or lower .Reinhart Is #1 for sure and I wouldn’t be surprised if Leon goes at #2 . Question LT . What does McT do if Leon is gone . My GUESS is trade the pick as I think he skips both Ekblad & Bennett .

    I think (and have stated previously) the Oilers list is probably:

    1. Ekblad
    2. Draisaitl
    3. Reinhart

    I think they take whoever is still there at No. 3

  83. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: A caution… Some of the date is a bit wonky(I’m pretty sure Morrissey is a D) and some of the queries don’t pull properly (Draisaitl doesn’t show with Reinhart on the LateBDs table). And you have to keep in mind the percentages on the tables are annual, and not just for when the player was in the line-up.

    It’s buggy for sure.

    Myself and others have been tweeting the builders of the tool to try and fix issues.

    Morrissey is for sure a D and not a C.

    Draisaitl is listed as LateDB but doesn’t get pulled when you search PA for either “eligible” or “latedb”…

    and for some reason when you look for “eligible” is excludes “latedb” entirely instead of simply noting it. they are still eligible obviously and a search of who is eligible should include them.

    And, yes the %s are expressive of the total goals for/against the team. but with the data there you can easily isolate for just when that player was on the ice if you choose.

    spoiler: As an aside, I don’t think Draisaitl’s teammates were that much different from Bennett’s in quality after they added PPG forward Valcourt for the last half of the season. His point total over both teams was 72.

    do you mean linemates or teammates?

    If you mean teammates, I don’t see how this statement can be true.

    If you mean linemates, I think you could make an argument, but it wouldn’t be a strong one.

    KF:

    Bennett: 1.60 PPG
    Ikonen: 1.30 PPG
    Watson: 1.05 PPG

    PAR:

    Draisaitl: 1.64 PPG
    Conroy: 0.92 PPG
    Valcourt: 0.97 PPG (I’ve just looked at his PA scoring)

    The difference is clear. Draisaitl wasn’t on his own but the linemates Bennett got for the entire year were clearly stronger offensive talents.

  84. raventalon40 says:

    Jaedon Descheneau – this guy was the bomb in the playoffs. No conversation about this guy?

  85. Andy P says:

    Big Dan: I hope MacT is working the phones and able to parlay that pick (yawn) into a Jordan Staal or Mike

    That would be a fatal mistake on MacT’s part.

  86. godot10 says:

    Deadman Waiting: One can just as easily interpret that as Hall successfully drinking Eakins’ kill-switch Kool-Aid.

    Say Hall begins to successfully recognize the bottom quartile of his scoring opportunities as having a low likelihood of actually scoring vs a high risk of feeding into an odd-man counter rush.

    Suppose he kills the shooting option four times for every 2-on-1 he prevents going back the other direction.One would expect to see a larger decline in his Corgi than in his IPP. Especially if the kill switch is attached to a safe dump and prompt line change.Unlike Sergei Kostitsyn I’m guessing Hall stays on the ice in the cases where he elects to take a risky shot and it does immediately turn around and go the other way on a fast break.

    We know for certain that Eakins was messing with Hall’s head early in the season to modify the risk-reward profile of Hall’s attacking style.Then there was evidence on the ice that this was throwing the baby out with the bathwater, so they came to a different agreement about these modifications.Maybe by the end of the season, Hall had adopted the good half of Eakins coaching instruction, and discarded that part that didn’t work out.

    This is the same process whereby ambitious novelists follow a best-seller with something that stretches their own boundaries (and maybe doesn’t succeed) then writes another best-seller based on the personal growth attained from the risk that went sideways (in commercial terms).

    Of course this looks bad in the marketplace.Stephen King wanted to try some new things so he snuck onto the ice as dump-and-chase Richard Bachman (a few years later Bachman came down with cancer of the pseudonym and passed away).On a side note, King was drinking so heavily at one point, he barely recalls writing Cujo at all.

    That’s probably not the right way to explore your boundaries and expand your horizons, but hey, why mess with success?

    Personally, I’m all for Eakins pushing the guys out of their comfort (and ELC success) zones.True resilience comes from not being dependent on tracking within one particular groove.

    Becoming a well-rounded player does crimp the style (for at least a while) of the one trick pony thundering over the great prairie of lather, rinse, and repeat.

    When did you become Randy Carlyle? The whole advanced statistic meme for shot metrics is that points and Corsi/Fenwick have a positive correlation. Deviations (from things like abnormal shooting percentages or IPP or PDO will over time return to normal).

    IPP is a stat like shooting percentange. It really only gains significance over several seasons.

    Until Hall demonstrates this abnormally high IPP over several seasons, like Eberle with shooting percentage, the deviation should be seen as random, or good luck if the deviation is in your favor.

    Hall’s Corsi regression to subpar under Eakins as he enters the prime year of his career after three really good Corsi years is a massive flashing red light for whatever Eakins is doing. One of several.
    Eakins’ Oilers are a red light dance party.

  87. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: do you mean linemates or teammates?
    If you mean teammates, I don’t see how this statement can be true.
    If you mean linemates, I think you could make an argument, but it wouldn’t be a strong one.
    KF:
    Bennett: 1.60 PPG
    Ikonen: 1.30 PPG
    Watson: 1.05 PPG
    PAR:
    Draisaitl: 1.64 PPG
    Conroy: 0.92 PPG
    Valcourt: 0.97 PPG (I’ve just looked at his PA scoring)
    The difference is clear. Draisaitl wasn’t on his own but the linemates Bennett got for the entire year were clearly stronger offensive talents.

    You have to be careful with this. Firstly it’s a 5 man unit on the ice, not a 3 man, and PA’s D make up for the small difference in F scoring. And again, we don’t have SH%, TOI, or WOWY. The two teams look close enough to me, without that data, to not surrender an edge to either player.

  88. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: You have to be careful with this. Firstly it’s a 5 man unit on the ice, not a 3 man, and PA’s D make up for the small difference in F scoring. And again, we don’t have SH%, TOI, or WOWY.The two teams look close enough to me, without that data, to not surrender an edge to either player.

    I think I’ve been careful enough.

    I’ve agreed that an argument could be made, but suggested it would be weak and backed that up.

    You haven’t made you case, beyond an assertion and a pile of unknowns.

    But, let’s examine your assertion:

    PA’s top pair of D:

    Morrissey:
    EV: 59 17-22-39 (0.67 PPG)

    Lange:
    EV: 71 3-24-27 (0.38 PPG)

    and the forwards:

    Draisaitl:
    EV: 64 25-37-62 (0.97 PPG)

    Conroy:
    EV: 66 15-19-34 (0.52 PPG)

    Valcourt:
    (I’ve extrapolated his PA season out to 65 games)
    EV: 65 17-20-37 (0.57 PPG)

    ———————-

    KF’s top pair of D:

    Moffat:
    EV: 64 2-31-33 (0.52 PPG)

    McKeown:
    EV: 62 7-18-25 (0.40)

    And the forwards:

    Bennett:
    EV: 57 25-34-59 (1.04 PPG)

    Ikonen:
    EV: 54 16-32-48 (0.89 PPG)

    Watson:
    EV: 65 28-27-55 (0.85 PPG)

    ————
    PA first line EV points: 133
    PA top pair D EV Points: 66
    PA top five EV points: 199

    ———–
    KF first line EV Points: 162
    KF top Pair EV Points: 58
    KF top five EV points: 220

    ———-
    So, KF have a 29 point edge on forwards.
    PA has an 8 points edge on D.

    Overall KF has a a 21 point edge. Even when you include the D of PA. When you consider that Draisaitl only had the benefit of Valcourt for half the season (the next highest scorers both score considerably less than Valcourt at evens)…

    It looks an awful look like I said.

    An argument could be made that they are a saw off, but it wouldn’t be a strong one. 21 points represents c. 10% of PA’s EV scoring.

  89. Big Dan says:

    Andy P: That would be a fatal mistake on MacT’s part.

    How so? You are hoping that Drasaitl will SOMEDAY be a guy who can play tough minutes at both ends of the ice and post 60+ points.

    Maybe in a few years, he’ll be John Leclair. Or maybe he’ll be Radek Bonk.

    Or you can get Mike Richards. Western Canadian boy. Consistent, gritty 60+ point performer as a Flyer. Has taken a reduced role in LA with the emergence of Toffoli and Pearson. He’d instantly be the #1 center for the Oilers and let RNH get a break from getting his ass kicked by the Getzlaf’s of the West for a bit.

    He’s only 29, signed long-term, and a leader who can help develop these kids (and shelter Yak defensively). Because Lord knows Eakin and his two stooges can’t.

    Staal, like Richards, is also amazing defensively and can help lead this team out of the wilderness. I’d rather gamble on Staal or Richards for the 1st/2nd line than:
    a) Rushing Drasaitl into the lineup
    b) Hoping the light bulb goes off for Gagner after 7 years (and he gains 30 lb of muscle)
    c) Setting Arcobello up for failure

    If the Oilers don’t make the playoffs or come close, I think the core is going to ask for a trade. Hall has waited patiently for 4 years for this joke of a franchise to get their acts together. They need an example of a guy who is tough, good in his own end, and a winner. Staal and Richards fit the bill more than some kid who may be better down the road.

    This franchise must turn the corner NOW or it’s going to be a bloodbath – fan mutiny, MacT and Eakins firing, etc. I think they are very close to Colorado and the Avs jumped in a hurry. The Oilers just need that O’Reilly type who is under their noses (Staal, Richards).

  90. supernova says:

    Big Dan,

    Not to but in but I am not sure if you and I watch the same hockey.

    Firstly Richards is not from Western Canada, I don’t think that really matters though.

    Yes he was more offensive in Philly but he also looks like he is the next Scott Gomez lately.

    He is a prime buyout candidate.

    He is a 4th line Center on a deep team but he is also being sheltered by Sutter ( the western canada coach doesn’t trust him)

    Would he work on the Oilers, well likely but he wouldn’t likely be a trade candidate he would be a buyout candidate.

    also most data indicates 29 is past their prime or at the tale end.

    I will take someone from Germany or Latvia if the can make the oilers better.

    Whoever we pick at 3 is hopefully not rushed but the oilers need to get better by keeping that pick and acquiring a Staal or Richards a different way.

  91. Jon K says:

    Lowetide:
    Ladies, I think Bennett is not No. 1

    I too think this amazing new tool brings into question Bennett’s status as number one.

    We should be careful not to nick him too much, however. As I recall, there were similar debates in the Taylor versus Tyler year. Seguin played for a much poorer team, and the evidence was good that he was in on an impressive amount of his team’s offense. Hall on the other hand played for a powerhouse and his contribution to the Spitfire’s overall offense was less impressive.

    The real brainteaser is trying to reconcile Bennett’s young age and physical development with this new information which shows that his impressive ES scoring may be in part a result of his teammates and overall good team.

    In my opinion, I think we can conclude that he’s still got a lot of untapped potential, but that his offensive upside may not be as impressive as we thought before.

    On the other side things, I think this helps Draisaitl’s case a little bit.

  92. Big Dan says:

    Jon K: I too think this amazing new tool brings into question Bennett’s status as number one.

    We should be careful not to nick him too much, however. As I recall, there were similar debates in the Taylor versus Tyler year. Seguin played for a much poorer team, and the evidence was good that he was in on an impressive amount of his team’s offense. Hall on the other hand played for a powerhouse and his contribution to the Spitfire’s overall offense was less impressive.

    The real brainteaser is trying to reconcile Bennett’s young age and physical development with this new information which shows that his impressive ES scoring may be in part a result of his teammates and overall good team.

    In my opinion, I think we can conclude that he’s still got a lot of untapped potential, but that his offensive upside may not be as impressive as we thought before.

    On the other side things, I think this helps Draisaitl’s case a little bit.

    Bennett is a string bean who can’t do a sit-up. But he may have the most potential out of all of them. However, he may be a few years away before he fills out. Kyle Turris is an example, a great 2nd line center now but he was drafted in 2007.

    Drasaitl doesn’t do it for me. Ekblad is probably the best of a weak lot, but Oilers are going to be swimming in D in a couple years.

    In my mind, Reinhart is #2 and I would be thrilled if he drops to the Oil. If Reinhart gets picked, I am totally on board with trading down and trying to get a Richards/ Staal type. The pipeline can come from 2nd & 3rd rounds now that MacGregor is allowed to pick the best guy (and not a Coke machine).

    The core is here= Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Yak, Schultz, Petry, Nurse, Scrivens… What we need is players that will make those guys better, not to be adding more kids.

  93. Big Dan says:

    supernova,

    I did not phrase my comment correctly. I wasn’t actually recommending we trade the 3rd overall pick straight up for a Staal or Richards. That would be nuts.

    Hey, if we could get one of those two while keeping the #3 pick, then sure – why not? However, the only draft eligible player I am really interested in is Sam Reinhart. If he’s gone, I am ok with trading our pick DOWN to get one of those two.

    Both Carolina and Los Angeles have internal cap issues, so swapping picks or something like that was actually what I was alluding to.

  94. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Let’s be careful before we nick Bennett too far.

    Remember this kid is quite a bit younger than the other two. He has strong ES numbers and if you follow Vollman, his NHLE is very, very good.

    We shouldn’t knock him necessarily for being on a good team. But, we should question the narrative about him being a driver and others being whatever… (I’d be happy getting rid of these kinds of mushy descriptions altogether, unless they relate to something we can measure).

  95. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Mike Richards is not worth the 3OV. Not close.

    There’s a very good chance he’ll get bought out this Summer. don’t spend a highly valuable asset on that.

  96. Big Dan says:

    I read earlier in this thread Oilers being rumored to trade the 3OV for the Schenn brothers.

    Just checked with my Flyer friend. He said that would be highway robbery. Luke Schenn is terribly expensive and terrible on the ice. He had the worst puck possession numbers on the D until Andrew MacDonald came along.

    He also said Brayden Schenn has been a disappointment. His improvement has been glacial. Despite getting soft minutes (Giroux and Couturier get all the tough minutes), Schenn’s numbers are mediocre and his puck possession numbers are bad – a similiar season to Lecavalier.

    He thinks Gagner is BETTER than Schenn. Plus Schenn is an RFA asking for $$$.

    I hope MacT has other options…

  97. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Big Dan:
    I read earlier in this thread Oilers being rumored to trade the 3OV for the Schenn brothers.

    Just checked with my Flyer friend.He said that would be highway robbery.Luke Schenn is terribly expensive and terrible on the ice.He had the worst puck possession numbers on the D until Andrew MacDonald came along.

    He also said Brayden Schenn has been a disappointment.His improvement has been glacial.Despite getting soft minutes (Giroux and Couturier get all the tough minutes), Schenn’s numbers are mediocre and his puck possession numbers are bad – a similiar season to Lecavalier.

    He thinks Gagner is BETTER than Schenn.Plus Schenn is an RFA asking for $$$.

    I hope MacT has other options…

    Luke looks like a disaster…

    I don’t know much about Brayden… my fellow writer at the Rig, Boris isn’t sold on him and the smart folks over at Broad Street (always worth reading) have a decidedly mixed view of him:

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/6/6/5786382/bringing-back-brayden-schenn-is-a-must-for-flyers

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/5/22/5742318/brayden-schenn-contract-trade-rumors-flyers

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/5/19/5726314/philadelphia-flyers-2013-14-year-in-review-brayden-schenn

  98. One More Time: A Deeper Look into The CHL and IPP - The Oilers Rig - The Oilers Rig says:

    […] even strength team goal differential for the top 2014 CHL draft eligible players. This is something Lowetide has already started playing around with in earnest. An expanded look at the 2014 draft class seems in order. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || […]

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