GET YER YA-YA’S OUT!

Every draft is different, has its own personality. This edition appears to be similar to 2012 (no clear No. 1 overall) and 2002 (not terribly deep but gems throughout). The Oilers stand a chance of getting a terrific player at No. 3 overall and then a few lottery picks later on. So far this spring, we’ve been acting as though the draft will pluck Aaron Ekblad and one of Sam Reinhart or Sam Bennett, leaving Edmonton with two C’s and the likely choice (Leon Draisaitl).

 POSSIBLE TOP OF THE DRAFT

  1. Florida Panthers: D Aaron Ekblad, Barrie Colts (OHL)
  2. Buffalo Sabres: C Leon Draisaitl, Prince Albert (WHL)

What then? Do the Oilers take Reinhart, a player similar to the Nuge, or Bennett, who I have ranked No. 1 but may be available at No. 3. If it were me, I’d take Bennett, but honestly Reinhart looks fine too. Either way, I’m in. However, there may be forces at work that we’re unaware of, like an offer from the New York Islanders or Toronto Maple Leafs. The Islanders may feel getting Sam Reinhart to go with Griffin Reinhart will give them a matching set, a solid foundation for the future. Toronto may be interested in acquiring their franchise center, and they may feel that is Sam Bennett.

Meaning the Oilers would be looking to trade down.

WHAT WOULD IT LOOK LIKE?

The Leafs matches are all over the place:

  • No. 8 overall
  • D Dion Phaneuf
  • L David Clarkson
  • D Jake Gardiner

MacT has been hinting like mad about being able to take on a big, lumpy contract and Clarkson is exhibit “A”. Woodguy posted last night “Clarkson and Phaneuf for Gagner and Klefbom” so let’s throw No. 3 for No 8 in there and make it one giant megadeal.

The Islanders matches are more subtle:

  • No. 5 overall
  • C Josh Bailey

That’s all I can see from here. So, let’s say “Nail Yakupov and Sam Gagner for No. 5 overall and Josh Bailey” and see if anyone thinks its a good idea. No? Okay. I’m not sold on the deal either, but something tells me there are things like this in play. Philadelphia, often mentioned as a possible trade partner, is too far down the draft order to be a really good match. The Islanders are perfect if the Oilers draft list (I’d guess it is Ekblad, Draisaitl, Reinhart, Bennett, Dal Colle) has five men in that first cluster. I don’t see Edmonton trading with Calgary or Vancouver, so NY Islanders and Toronto make the most sense. Possible trade down targets would be Dal Colle, Nick Ritchie and Jake Virtanen.

mact7

OTHER MACT GEMS

I’m riffing off headlines dug up by Matt Henderson at Hockeybuzz. He’s a smart guy with great takes, and so please zip over there and have a read. I’m basically lifting his headlines, so it’s only fair to give him the click-through.

  • The Oilers will be chasing after some of the “High End Guys” in Free Agency.

I find this a little scary, because free agency is a risky bet. Edmonton has the do-re-mi, but they can’t afford to commit big money long term to epic fails. The Andrew Ference contract already has them paying more than full price for a third pairing guy, they don’t need to make additional investments like it. MacT has suggested the puck-moving defender is likely to come in trade, so I’d suggest the UFA targets might include Tomas Vanek, David Legwand, Ryan Callahan, Dave Bolland, Jussi Jokinen, Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, David Moss, Daniel Winnik and Lee Stempniak. I’m not suggesting all are good options, but Edmonton might have interest in these men.

Among defensemen, Andrei Markov, Matt Niskanen, Brooks Orpik, Willie Mitchell, Stephane Robidas, Matt Greene, Ron Hainsey, Nikita Nikitin, Tom Gilbert, Anton Stralman, Derek Engelland, Mark Fayne  and Brett Bellemore may be of interest.

  • The Oilers have Cap space and are willing to use that as an asset.

All I can see now is David Clarkson when reading this, that damn Woodguy texted me last night with his thoughts on the use of cap space. As mentioned above, the trade has some appeal on both ends, but Edmonton would be adding two veteran players coming off subpar seasons. Kind of a tough sell to the masses, and doesn’t address center. Still, it does give them a monster defenseman and a big man who has played with skill in the past.

  • He likes the Primary Offensive weapons but wants to add secondary players.

I agree with Henderson’s take. Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Perron, Yakupov, maybe even Gagner if MacT’s unicorn three scoring lines dream comes true. I will say that 89 at $4.8M looks a lot better if he’s scoring on your power play. The one thing about the GM’s comments yesterday is that it does create a scenario where Gagner stays with the club next season.

  • The Oilers are not in a position to trade assets for Draft choices.

No complaints from this quarter. Oilers lack 2nd and 3rd round picks because of David Perron and Ben Scrivens trades, and that’s something Edmonton should do every year. Adding a sure NHL player for a distant bell that may never ring is just good business. MacT is also framing the issue a little, if Edmonton really wants a pick 31-90 this season, they have next year’s picks plus that Ottawa selection for 2015 acquired in the Hemsky deal. There’s room to move, should they choose.

  • The 3rd Overall Pick is highly sought after.

No doubt, and I do think Edmonton would trade down (not out) if they can address defense or center. If that option comes available, then the Oilers might be willing to move down—especially if Ekblad and Draisaitl are gone.

MONTREAL

Reports everywhere that MacT has been in Montreal for a few days. Of course he could be there on a family vacation, visiting friends, buying poutine or visiting the Victoriaville plant. I’m not into polls, but would guess Oiler fans would click “there to finalize PK Subban deal” one trillion times. We wish.

 LOWDOWN

TSN 1260, 10 this morning. We’ll talk a variety of subjects with guests Kirk Luedeke (2014 draft), Dustin Schwartz (goaltending, Oil Kings), Michael Parkatti (Darnell Nurse, MacT’s verbal, 2014 draft) and Travis Yost (dummies in Ottawa, hockey division, 2014 draft).

10-1260 for the texts, @Lowetide_ on twitter. See you on the radio!

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88 Responses to "GET YER YA-YA’S OUT!"

  1. Dicky94 says:

    I would be happy with the Clarkson and Dion trade. If its with the islanders I would be wanting Okposso if Yak went the other way.

  2. John Chambers says:

    This seems to be the offseason to grab a top-6 Centre.

    With Thornton, Spezza, and Kesler at the top end, O’Reilly maybe shaking loose, Kadri and Gagner at the lower end, the FA’s like Grabbo and Stastny, even Roy, Legwand, and Bolland, and then the three young C’s in the draft, even Tambellini could upgrade our current situation.*

    O’Reilly’s youth and 2-way play makes him an ideal target, while Stastny or Legwand costing only money makes them attractive IJC’sO. On the flip side Gagner is more liability than asset and we should probably consider ourselves lucky to see a Horcoff-type return for him.

    *Tambellini has proven unable to force a tie in a game of tic-tac-toe.

  3. fuzzy muppet says:

    the contract lengths (Phaneuf, Clarkson) in the Toronto deal are too scary for my liking. It gives them less flexibility in the future.

    I’m more of the Trade 89(freeing up MORE space) and bridge deal guys like Grabovski and Kulemin for 2 or 3 years camp.

    MacT will earn his salary this off-season. I can’t take anymore suckage. I just can’t.

    My wife has NEVER SEEN a decent Oilers team (we met summer of 2006). She simply cannot comprehend why I waste my time watching “those bums”. No more lottery picks, PLEASE!

  4. nycoil says:

    I fear both those trades. I think we lose in each case.

    vs. Isles
    Gagner will be better than Bailey
    Yak will be better than #5
    We lose both ends of that one.

    vs. Leafs
    I guess I am the only one who would rather keep Klefbom and his years of team control over Phaneuf and his $7M?. And then we’d be swapping the Gagner contract for a longer, worse contract for a player who had an even worse season than did Gagner. The cherry on top of that is that we’re downgrading #3 for #8 as well? Just shoot me now.

    I would cry if either those happened.

    I’m okay with trading #3 in a package, but not for someone else’s project (Bailey) or a cap dump (Clarkson). Give me Ehrhoff+ or O’Reilly+ or something tangible like that.

    The cap space should be used for the FAs out there.

  5. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers,

    *Tambellini has proven unable to force a tie in a game of tic-tac-toe.

    Not entirely true.

    I saw him tie the tic-tac-toe playing chicken at Klondike days once.

    Final score Chicken – 24
    Tambellini – 0
    Push – 1

    I heard him muttering as he left “maybe I should try to take the center square…..maybe…….I think I want a sandwich……I think I’m hungry…….I wonder what kind of bread they have here……….I like whole wheat but my colon sure doesn’t…..hehehehe…….center square………I wonder if I should draft a center……..”

  6. nycoil says:

    fuzzy muppet:

    My wife has NEVER SEEN a decent Oilers team (we met summer of 2006).She simply cannot comprehend why I waste my time watching “those bums”.No more lottery picks, PLEASE!

    Ha ha. Reminds me of when I met my girlfriend in the fall of 2008. She had no exposure ever to hockey. I explain to her that my team sucks now, but will be good in the near future (that was the first fall after the Nilsson, Gagner, Cogliano line raised our hopes). She sees me watching a game one late night around Halloween this past year and the Oilers are already unofficially eliminated. She asks how the Oilers are doing and I say, “We suck. We’re in last place.”

    “You’ve been telling me we suck, we’re in last place ever since we met. Aren’t they ever going to not suck?”

  7. slopitch says:

    I don’t see the need to move the #3. This should be our last chance to acquire an elite player via the draft. The recipe for the scorched earth rebuild is acquire elite players and fill the rest of the team with competent 2 way players.

    I like going after Kadri, Gardiner and Phaneuf. The first 2 especially are former players leafs nation loved and are sour on. They also have experience with Eakins and are the top 2 CF% Rel on the team. Dont go near Clarkson and that contract.

    MacT isnt on vacation. Its a week before the draft. He is writing up the Subban OS ;)

  8. Dicky94 says:

    fuzzy muppet</stron

    I hear ya! It can be worse though. I'm married to a Flames fan.

  9. wintoon says:

    If the Toronto trade were to be :

    #3 (Bennett)
    Gagner
    Klefbom

    for

    #8 (Virtanen)
    Phaneuf
    Clarkson
    Gardiner

    That move would give the Oilers a puck carrying D Man (Gardiner), the defensive minute eater (Phaneuf) and a gritty winger who may be able to play on the 2nd line. With the addition of Virtanen via the draft that would really solidify the top six wingers and give Eakins the ability to craft a very solid 3rd line.
    Toronto would acquire their #1 C for which they have been yearning for forever, A serviceable 2C in case Bolland does not re-sign and a prime prospect for their blueline in Klefbom.

    The fly in the ointment, and it is huge, is that the Oilers would not have a Cup quality 2C. This would put immense pressuure on MacT to acquire a good, not necessarily great 2C via free agency.

  10. John Chambers says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    Contract length should be less scary than it was 12 months ago when everyone (except Toronto) was scrambling to get under the post-lockout cap.

    The cap could be $80M next summer, and with our core already under friendly contracts the leeway is there to take on Phaneuf’s contract, less so Clarkson. I’d be willing to take on Clarkson’s contract if both Gagner and Ference went the other way.

  11. Ducey says:

    Don’t Clarkson and the Dion have NMC/ NTC?

  12. Jordan says:

    If we know that the Oilers are going to be trying to run three scoring lines, and they can’t get value for Gagner… they need to get him some bigger wingers who can win the battles he can’t.

    They need Dustin Penner & James Neal.

    You should be able to swing a deal around Perron for Neal, and Penner can be had for cash and an apology. Not only do you add two players who bring what you need in the top 6, but you also make a weak asset (Gagner) much more useful to the team, because he complements his linemates.

    If you can go out and sign Grabo & Kulemin to play with Yak… that top 9 looks… balanced?

    Neal costs 1.2M more per, Penner should be available for 3M per, and say 9M for both Grabs & Kule? Does 13.2M of the capspace make sense? Does it still give you enough room to address the D?

  13. cahill says:

    I have wondered whether the Oilers should be looking at Mike Richards. I haven’tdone a deep dive on his stats but I’m wondering if he’d work.
    It’s tough to get a feel for Kings because they dominate the puck possession battle.
    I know the cap hit 5.75 x 6 is high. But the last two years his salary is around 3 million. He might be able to be traded to a team like Phoenix for the last couple of years.
    His PDO for the last two years is low 96 and in the playoffs was 93.
    His zone starts were around 58 offensive zone this year.

    Player With Richards Richards W/O W/O Richard
    Carter 54.8 54.4 58.3
    Toffoli 59.2 52.5 61.2
    King 55.2 54.4 59.3
    Williams 53.5 54.8 62.1
    Frattin 56.4 54.2 50.5
    Clifford 49.8 55.4 54.9
    Lewis 56.2 54.3 52.5
    Brown 56.2 54.3 52.5
    Nolan 53 54.7 53.5

    Carter, Toffoli, King, Williams & Clifford all did signifigantly better without Richards.
    But, other than Toffoli, Richards didn’t fall off a cliff without these players.
    All these players, again with the exception of Toffoli played up in the lineup. By that I mean they had minutes playing with Kopitar – Carter & King almost 400, Williams 600+.

    I think you could probably get Richards cheap and perhaps even get the Kings to eat 15% of the salary.

    I could see a lineup of;
    Hall-RNH-Eberle – # 1
    ?-Richards-Perron –
    Hendricks-Gordon-? – Defensive Zone Start
    ?-?-Yakupov –

    The blanks are to be filled in with the likes of Lander, Gazdic, Arcobello, Gagner return, Free Agent & internal competition or a waiver pickup.

  14. Jon K says:

    The Oilers will be chasing after some of the “High End Guys” in Free Agency.

    Yesterday Dave Pagnotta was on with Jason Gregor toward the end of his show. Pagnotta mentioned that Ottawa is going to part ways with Milan Michalek and Carolina will likely buyout Cam Ward if they can’t move him.

    I wonder if there may be interest from MacT in either of those fellows. There certainly was the ultimate “seen him good” experience regarding Ward, and Michalek is a big, strong two-way winger who suffers from injury issues but would help nonetheless.

    Has anyone else had any issues accessing Vollman’s player usage charts? I’ve tried over the last few days and haven’t been able to get it to display.

  15. nycoil says:

    Jon K,

    I’ve had issues with it on my MacBook Air. Haven’t tried Windows recently.

  16. nycoil says:

    Andy Strickland
    ‏@andystrickland
    Brian Campbell apparently wants out of Florida…still has two years left on contract paying north of $7 million #Panthers

    Tell him to bring his D-partner back to Edmonton with him?

  17. Gerta Rauss says:

    nycoil:
    Andy Strickland
    ‏@andystrickland
    Brian Campbell apparently wants out of Florida…still has two years left on contract paying north of $7 million #Panthers

    Tell him to bring his D-partner back to Edmonton with him?

    Wow-Campbell would be a nice fit in Edmonton

    With the way Tallon has been talking(adding NHL players) I didn’t think Campbell would be available

  18. nycoil says:

    Wish we could send Gagner and Ference over there for Campbell! Florida needs salary back to stay above the cap floor

    Campbell-Petry
    Marincin-Stralman
    Hainsey-Schultz

    Nice balance?

  19. Woodguy says:

    nycoil:
    Andy Strickland
    ‏@andystrickland
    Brian Campbell apparently wants out of Florida…still has two years left on contract paying north of $7 million #Panthers

    Tell him to bring his D-partner back to Edmonton with him?

    Gogogogogogogogogo MacT, there’s your boy, go get him!!!

  20. Oil Fan 99 says:

    What do you think of Mitch Moroz trade for Chris Stewart?

  21. Ben says:

    Stauffer prognostication: consider a young d-man who has put up points, but who may have fallen out of favour due to a down year and a recent team management change.

    Any ideas?

    Edler
    Myers
    Letang
    Alzner
    Carlson

    Penguins are loaded with quality young D. If they re-sign Niskanen, I think they move Letang.

    My guess? Letang for Petry and 2015 2nd.

  22. Ryan says:

    Adrian Dater of the Denver post thinks that the Avs are going to trade ROR… and soon!

    http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2014/06/17/ryan-oreilly-agent-now-preparing-arbitration-case-didnt-think-wed-attend/18548/

    Pauls Statsny is apparently willing to take a haircut to stay with the Avs.

    https://twitter.com/Hope_Smoke/status/478658630686748672

  23. wintoon says:

    Ben,

    This scenario could also apply to Gardiner with the recent change in Leafs management.

  24. borisnikov says:

    I still think something is brewing in Philly. Home town draft crowd and they’ll want to make a splash.
    Here are my recently completed pieces on Brayden Schenn…

    Part 2

    Part 1

  25. su_dhillon says:

    Woodguy: Gogogogogogogogogo MacT, there’s your boy, go get him!!!

    Apparently Campbell can stipulate the terms of deal, he picks 8 teams he will go to. Unlikely we make that high a bar, if it was 28 Teams then maybe we’re in the game. Maybe.

  26. cdean says:

    The Oilers should not be trading away players that are getting less than market value (Gagner and Yakupov). Even less now that MacT is looking for “3 scoring lines”. I would like them to do another MPS – Perron type deal but of their young guys there isn’t many I want to give up on (Klefbom, Marincin). Possible ammunition for MacT to trade away are picks (not the first rounder) and players that might not make it out of the AHL (Pitlick, C or R Hamilton, Miller, Kessey, Ewanyk, Acton, Gernat, Davidson.

    For 3 scoring lines that means we should be adding a 2C to move Gagner to RW or a big winger that can help out Gagner at 2C. Our forwards could look like this:
    Hall – RNH – Eberle
    Perron – 2C – Gagner (woiuld Stastny be dreaming too high?)
    Hendricks – Arcobello – Yakupov
    Joensuu – Gordon – Pakarinen

    We would also need to add a 1LD and a RD
    1LD – Petry (Phaneuf if we can get for picks and prospects even trade back to 5?)
    Ference – Shultz
    Marincin – RD (Fayne is a nice match)

  27. Jon K says:

    Ryan:
    Adrian Dater of the Denver post thinks that the Avs are going to trade ROR… and soon!

    http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2014/06/17/ryan-oreilly-agent-now-preparing-arbitration-case-didnt-think-wed-attend/18548/

    Pauls Statsny is apparently willing to take a haircut to stay with the Avs.

    https://twitter.com/Hope_Smoke/status/478658630686748672

    The Avalanche are apparently desperate to bolster their defense. If they indeed intend to re-sign Stastny and trade O’Reilly to get a stud defender, I wonder if Edmonton is still a suitable trade partner.

    If it came down to it, would fans be willing to send Gagner and Petry/Kelfbom/Marincin for O’Reilly?

    I have a hard time deciding who I would prefer to send away in a trade: Marincin or Klefbom.

    The organization seems to view Klefbom as the blue chipper, but quite frankly I’m not so sure. Klefbom has enough injury history that it’s become a red flag, and we don’t have counting numbers or underlying stats so far that seem to suggest that he’s superior to Marincin as a prospect.

  28. wheatnoil says:

    su_dhillon: Apparently Campbell can stipulate the terms of deal, he picks 8 teams he will go to. Unlikely we make that high a bar, if it was 28 Teams then maybe we’re in the game. Maybe.

    There’s more than one way this can shake out. Let’s say he doesn’t want to go to Edmonton but Toronto is on his list. That might drop the asking price for Phaneuf if the Leafs are interested and need to clear a bit of cap to make the deal happen.

    Also, as to Stauffer’s prognostication… Bfuglien also bits that bill.

  29. frjohnk says:

    borisnikov:
    I still think something is brewing in Philly. Home town draft crowd and they’ll want to make a splash.
    Here are my recently completed pieces on Brayden Schenn…

    Part 2

    Part 1

    Great work, I have always thought that Schenn would be a nice player with the oilers as a second line center, but he would need to improve to be a good fit there. I believe he has the skill, tremendous character and grit that the oilers need for that position, but I’m not sure about his defensive game and his faceoff % is worse than Gagners.

  30. Hammers says:

    I wouldn’t throw in the #3 for Clarkson /Phaneuf as that’s basically a salary dump and should be treated as such . Phanuef Kadri maybe could include pick swaps, as Kadri is cheaper younger player in the deal . I said a few days ago to go after Legwand hard . His 33 but a 3 year deal front loaded for $ 13 mill would get him .I would also offer Santorelli a 3 year $ 6 mill deal . He probably resigns in Van but puts pressure on them . UFA centers is what he must go after if he wants 3 scoring lines.

  31. frjohnk says:

    Jon K: The Avalanche are apparently desperate to bolster their defense. If they indeed intend to re-sign Stastny and trade O’Reilly to get a stud defender, I wonder if Edmonton is still a suitable trade partner.

    If it came down to it, would fans be willing to send Gagner and Petry/Kelfbom/Marincin for O’Reilly?

    I have a hard time deciding who I would prefer to send away in a trade: Marincin or Klefbom.

    The organization seems to view Klefbom as the blue chipper, but quite frankly I’m not so sure. Klefbom has enough injury history that it’s become a red flag, and we don’t have counting numbers or underlying stats so far that seem to suggest that he’s superior to Marincin as a prospect.

    I don’t think the Oilers have want the Avs would want if they were trading OReilly. The Avs would want someone better than Klefbom or Marincin right now coming back. Especially when there are teams like Phoenix who need a top six 6 center and could trade a Yandle + for Oreilly.

  32. su_dhillon says:

    wheatnoil: There’s more than one way this can shake out. Let’s say he doesn’t want to go to Edmonton but Toronto is on his list. That might drop the asking price for Phaneuf if the Leafs are interested and need to clear a bit of cap to make the deal happen.

    Also, as to Stauffer’s prognostication… Bfuglien also bits that bill.

    Good points, you are right the more movement of top level players the more repercussions that could shake out in our favor. I’m leary of putting too much stock into the Stuaffer stuff, mostly because I am an Oilers fan and good things stopped happening to us long ago. That said would love to see the Dion or Buff here.

  33. Ryan says:

    frjohnk: I don’t think the Oilers have want the Avs would want if they were trading OReilly.The Avs would want someone better than Klefbom or Marincin right now coming back.Especially when there are teams like Phoenix who need a topsix 6 center and could trade a Yandle + for Oreilly.

    The article does speculate that the Avs want a stud defender… Really though, which ones are available?

    I agree with you that Yandle is probably available though he’s more of a fancy dan offensman than stud defender. They already have Tyson Barrie.

    Phaneuf is also on the market though the Avs seem to be conscious of real dollars more so than cap space. If they don’t want to pay ROR, would they be willing to take on Phaneuf’s salary?

    The Avs like nice things particularly those that are cheap and found high in the draft, you’d have to think the #3 pick would be of interest to them–though they are loaded a centre and Ekblad will likely be gone already.

  34. Ryan says:

    Ryan: The article does speculate that the Avs want a stud defender…Really though, which ones are available?

    I agree with you that Yandle is probably available though he’s more of a fancy dan offensman than stud defender.They already have Tyson Barrie.

    Phaneuf is also on the market though the Avs seem to be conscious of real dollars more so than cap space.If they don’t want to pay ROR, would they be willing to take on Phaneuf’s salary?

    The Avs like nice things particularly those that are cheap and found high in the draft, you’d have to think the #3 pick would be of interest to them–though they are loaded a centre and Ekblad will likely be gone already.

    Now that I think about, one deal that makes a lot of sense for the Avs… They need someone to play Hejda’s minutes since he’s getting old.

    ROR for Phaneuf with salary retained would probably satisfy both teams needs.

  35. nycoil says:

    su_dhillon: Apparently Campbell can stipulate the terms of deal, he picks 8 teams he will go to. Unlikely we make that high a bar, if it was 28 Teams then maybe we’re in the game. Maybe.

    This is what we hired Craig Ramsay for! He’ll call Soupy and ask him to include Edmonton on his list of 8 teams :)

  36. nycoil says:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 1m
    Isles GM Garth Snow says he’s now shopping Dan Boyle’s rights, having been unable to sign the pending UFA defenseman…

    Poor Islanders

  37. wheatnoil says:

    nycoil:
    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 1m
    Isles GM Garth Snow says he’s now shopping Dan Boyle’s rights, having been unable to sign the pending UFA defenseman…

    Poor Islanders

    It was a good risk for them to take. They got their goaltending sorted out that way successfully.

  38. Younger Oil says:

    I’d love to get Phaneuf from Toronto, or maybe even Clarkson if it was for next to nothing, but I have a really hard time getting behind getting both in the same trade. That’s way too much salary tied up for a really long time, and if we had to give up Klefbom or Marincin for that, that would be pretty hard to feel good about. Gagner and Ference I could maybe get behind, but not Gagner and Klefbom.

    My ideal summer?

    1. Trade Gagner and a middle pick and/or prospect for Phaneuf.
    2. Trade Perron and a middle pick and/or prospect for Byfuglien.
    3. Draft Draisaitl if possible.
    4. Resign Schultz to a short bridge deal (2 years at $3.5M), and Petry to a longer term contract (4 years ar $4M per maybe).
    5. Do all you can to sign Kulemin and Grabovski.
    6. Make a bottom 6 value signing after free agency cools down, much like the Mason Raymond contract last year.

    RNH-Hall-Eberle ($18M)
    Grabovski-Kulemin-Yakupov ($12M)
    Gordon-Hendricks-Value Signing ($6M)
    Arco-Draisaitl-Pitlick ($4M)
    Lander/Gazdic ($1.5M)

    Phaneuf-Petry ($11M)
    Marincin-Byfuglien ($6M)
    Ference-Schultz ($7M)
    Klefbom ($900k)

    Scrivens/Fasth ($5.2M)

    I just approximated a lot of the numbers for the free agents/newcomers, but that comes out to a total cap of about $70M.

  39. vangolf says:

    What I find implausible about any deal for both Phaneuf and Clarkson as cap dumps is the inherent admission of failure by Nonis to his new bosses. Human nature tells me he holds on to them unless a deal comes around that can be seen as a win (ie., good player/high draft pick coming back), even though this sets up for addition by subtraction.

  40. russ99 says:

    Say no to Clarkson and/or Phaneuf unless Toronto are taking a problem contract (Gagner) off our hands and/or Toronto are eating considerable salary.

    BTW – my dream lineup for next year is:

    Hall – Grabovsky – Yak
    Perron – RNH – Eberle
    Kulemin – Gordon – Moss or Winnik
    Arcobello – Trevor Lewis – Pitlick (eventually Gazdic, when healthy)

    Markov – Schultz
    Marincin – Petry
    Ference – Fayne

    Greene

    Fasth/Scrivens

    And all it will cost us is dumping Gagner and money.

    Then all the kids and the #3 pick stay in the AHL/CHL until they’re ready, akin to how we were patient with Marincin.

  41. slopitch says:

    I think it would take Nurse+ for ROR and Id be fine with that.

    Stay away from Yandle, Oilers need 2 way dmen and have Jultz already.

    Draft Draisatl/Ekblad.
    Target Boychuk and Phaneuf.

    I think the prices should be reasonable because of the salary implications. I’m more then fine with Gagner in 3C. No need to sell low. If you can get value, then do it.

  42. misfit says:

    I’m less worried about overpaying a UFA if he’s an impact player. There are no Ryan Suters in this year’s free agent crop, but signing a guy like that for over market value is something I’d do every day.

    The Andrew Ferences of the world are much easier to acquire either internally or through trade (or in free agency at a more reasonable rate). Overpaying them as UFAs is just bad business.

    I’d rather go out and sign Thomas Vanek for $7M than Nikita Nikitin for $4M.

  43. nycoil says:

    wheatnoil,

    Yes, it was. Still, poor Islanders.

  44. G Money says:

    nycoil,

    Islanders vs Oilers, last 5 seasons

    79 pts 67 pts
    55 pts (playoffs) 45 pts
    79 pts 74 pts
    73 pts 62 pts
    79 pts 62 pts

    We should get a few years of success – or even just one – under our belts before we start feeling sorry for any other team!

  45. Deadman Waiting says:

    Jordan:
    Penner can be had for cash and an apology

    True, but I suspect the magnitude of apology required is sending MacT down to skip the Hershey Bears for a good three years, taking his fitness-crazed bootjack along for the ride (large goggles, long scarf, leather jacket, long piece of white chalk, one-room-schoolhouse slate tablet, propane-powered Timbit cannon swivel-mounted on gunwale of cozy side-car—”hey, Craig, we should get the reeeally sweet ones, the thick syrup nearly doubles my muzzle velocity”; as they pull into the historic Rat Portage Tim Hortons drive-thru Eakins scrawls “6 doz / bits / xxx / sticky” on his slate board—the letters ‘x’ are especially well formed—which he displays with an outstretched glove after slinking down to where all anyone can see is the tip of his white scarf).

    For a clean house and a red carpet, Penner might even reward us with a homer contract.

  46. nycoil says:

    G Money,

    Hmm, well I feel a kindred spirit between the Islanders and Oilers. Both had great dynasties and then both have suffered through mediocrity for years, followed by rebuild hell. At least the Oilers had 2006. The Isles had…?

    We now have some young stars: Hall-Tavares, Nuge-Strome, Okposo-Eberle (not saying player types are the same), but struggle to take that next step and have struggled under bad management (Milbury-Tambellini)

    Thus I feel like I can say “Poor Islanders” as much as “Poor Oilers.”

    It’s not looking down on them at all. It’s feeling like I understand their predicament all too well.

    Both have the two worst, most outdated rinks in the league as well (and both moving to new barns soon at least).

  47. Doomoil says:

    John Chambers:
    This seems to be the offseason to grab a top-6 Centre.

    With Thornton, Spezza, and Kesler at the top end, O’Reilly maybe shaking loose, Kadri and Gagner at the lower end, the FA’s like Grabbo and Stastny, even Roy, Legwand, and Bolland, and then the three young C’s in the draft, even Tambellini could upgrade our current situation.*

    Bolland isn’t, wasn’t and never will be a top-6 centre. The Oilers signing him would be a disaster. Let the Leafs overpay for him.

  48. RexLibris says:

    Aaron Portzline via TSN: Umberger has a list of ten teams to whom he would refuse a trade.

    Is anyone else hoping that the Oilers’ persistent appearance on these lists continues here, if only for their own safety?

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=455101

  49. FastOil says:

    nycoil:
    Wish we could send Gagner and Ference over there for Campbell! Florida needs salary back to stay above the cap floor

    Campbell-Petry
    Marincin-Stralman
    Hainsey-Schultz

    Nice balance?

    That works for me.

  50. Caramel Obvious says:

    Re: Clarkson and Phaneuf

    The question is if they were a free agent this summer would they sign for more, less, or the same amount/term?

    In both cases, I think the answer is less. Definitely so in the case of Clarkson but I think also in the case of Phaneuf. Adding him to your team is a net negative in relation to his contract.

    The next question is how much do the Leafs have to add to Clarkson and Phaneuf in order for the Oilers to take them for free.

    Thus:

    Clarkson + Phaneuf = negative value. Gagner = negative value.

    Does Clarkson + Phaneuf = Gagner? Maybe. But Gagner + Klefbom for Clarkson and Phaneuf is a terrible trade. Klefbom is the only player there that has real positive value.

    I think fair value is somewhere along the lines of Clarkson + Phaneuf + Kadri for Gagner. That’s the only deal that is remotely fair for the Oilers.

    Remember:

    Clarkson is a negative. The Leafs have to pay someone in talent to take that contract.
    Phaneuf is at best break even. No way his contract has surplus value. Hence he should have no trade value. I would trade a mid round pick for him at best even up.
    Gagner is also a negative though much less of one (only two years term) than Clarkson.
    Kadri has surplus value on his contract.

    If you want to make this deal you have to disagree with one of these assumptions.

  51. Lois Lowe says:

    vangolf:
    What I find implausible about any deal for both Phaneuf and Clarkson as cap dumps is the inherent admission of failure by Nonis to his new bosses.Human nature tells me he holds on to them unless a deal comes around that can be seen as a win (ie., good player/high draft pick coming back), even though this sets up for addition by subtraction.

    Agree completely. I could see a Phaneuf for Ryan O’Reilly deal if the former is being shopped though.

  52. Jordan says:

    BanffOil:
    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=723074&navid=DL|EDM|home

    Ferencewon the Clancy

    So… The first Oiler to win a major award since Ethan Moreau won the same award in 08-09.

    While I’m pleasantly surprised, I’m also surprisingly underwhelmed. With Hall on this team, it seems weird to award another player an award and not give him one.

  53. nycoil says:

    Spain now 1 GF 7GA in 1.5 matches at this World Cup. For the love of Gord, the corgis must be barking something fierce at them right now.

  54. rickithebear says:

    If a Dman does not have a historical EVGA of 2.35 or less.

    It is moronic!
    To chase them.
    Worse than MacT after Clarkson.
    J. Schultz 3.30
    Bufyglien 3.35
    Bogosian 2.66
    Phanuef 2.75
    Weber 2.40
    Josi 2.45
    Gardiner 2.12
    I would take him in a trade.
    Kulikov 2.83
    Campbell 2.45 FLD 1.88 CHI
    Couburn 2.80
    Meyers 2.86 1.97 W/ reghr
    Edler 2.68
    Bieksa 2.54
    Yandle 2.42 facing 3rds
    Letang 2.61
    Niskanen 1.99 1st/2nd
    Engelland 2.00 3rd comp
    Subban 2.20
    Fayne 1.93 2nd comp
    Mezaros 2.45
    Boychuck 2.17
    B. NcNabb 1.62
    Traded to LAK from BUF Fucking Lombardi
    M. Greene 1.71
    W. Mitchell 1.55
    Bellimore 1.73
    Nikitin 2.13 2nd comp

    Bellimore-Niskanen
    Marincin-Gardiner
    Ference-Petry

  55. rickithebear says:

    Ference recieves NHL Clancy award for Player in Community

  56. Rondo says:

    rickithebear,

    Don’t you think that advanced stats more or less just confirms something you already know as a pro scout.

  57. Rod from Viking says:

    If the Oilers move a young d-man in a trade I hope it isn’t Klefsbom or Nurse I know it was a small sample size and he has been injured a lot but I see glimpses of a future top pairing guy with Oscar, Darnell has the great combo of brains, brawn and skating ability and should end up being a top 3.

  58. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again – just using EVGA and some arbitrary measure like “2.35″ does not take into account teammates, competition, or goaltending – all of which are enormously influential on the results and which defenders have little or no control over.

    One of the ways in which you test the validity of your statistics is to test whether or not the conclusions you draw from them mesh with other measures (including the “seen him good” test).

    Any statistic in which e.g. Gardiner > Weber, Willie Mitchell is the best defender in the league, or Engelland > almost anyone fails that test. Badly.

    EDIT: by this measure, your “Top 6″ pairings would be:
    Mitchell-McNabb
    Greene-Bellemore
    Fayne-Niskanen

    (I’m on board with those last three).

    Meanwhile, by the same measure you would pass up in trade as “not good enough”: Weber, Yandle, Josi, Campbell, Meszaros, Bieksa, Letang, Bogosian, Edler, Phaneuf, Coburn – all of whom would immediately play on the top pairing for the Oilers.

  59. BanffOil says:

    Jordan,

    Well, it is a good example to the kids from the captain.

    That said it is kind of like “winning” the white ribbon on sports day in elementary.

  60. John Chambers says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    It doesn’t quite net out that way. Phaneuf has tremendous positive value even at $7M – this is effectively the market rate for a top-pair Dman logging 23+ minutes. The contract length is what posits negative value, but that liability doesn’t kick in until year 5 or 6. The positive value yielded over the first 5 years trumps the residual negative value (maybe $2 -$3M worth each year) at the back portion of the contract.

    Indeed Ckarkson’s deal is bad. Gagner’s deal is okay … his market value based on offensive performance is in the range of $3.5 – $4M, so carries about a $1M negative value similar to Ckarkson.

    You’re correct in asserting that young players on ELC’s have positive values. But you do have to pay somebody, and in the case of Phaneuf (or Letang or Eric Staal or Campbell) their $7+M contracts are of significantly greater value than those of Clarkson, or Lecavalier, or other players whose performances going forward will be far less than their pay cheques.

  61. G Money says:

    John Chambers,

    I’ll be publishing part two of my “What’s a UFA worth?” articles – defensemen this time – within a couple of days. (For assessing defensemen, I ended up using Awad’s GVT).

    FYI, your off-the-cuff assessment of player value is pretty close to what my statistical analysis came up with. The players you mention net the following “fair value” contracts in my analysis:

    Phaneuf: $6.5M
    Clarkson: $1.97M
    Gagner: $4.35M
    Letang: $5.3M
    E. Staal: $7.1M
    Campbell: $7.14M
    Lecavalier: $6.4M

    On the last one, bear in mind my analysis is based on career, so players near the end of the career will show a high number i.e. will have values that are inherently overpays, just like in the real world.

  62. rickithebear says:

    Trade For Phanuef 2.75
    Trade For BuFF 3.35
    Sign Schultz 3.30

    Doughty 1.85 – 2.75 = -.90 -22.5 EVG
    Muzzin 1.63 -3.35 = -1.72 -36.5 EVG
    Mitchell 1.55 -3.3 = -1.75 -39 EVG

    that is 3/4 of 2 dpairs that would require the forwards to outscore there offensive competition by 65 EVG.
    or

    better desribed
    2.75 + 3.35 + 3.3 = 9.4/3 = 3.13 EVGA/60
    .9 + 1.72 + 1.75 = 4.37/3 1.46 GD/60

    So we would need to offensive lines to score
    3.13 + 1.46 = 4.59 EVGF/60

    every year we have this kind of EVGA we need 4.59 EVGF/60
    XXX-Getzlaf-Perry 3.99
    Benn-Seguin -XXX 3.75
    no chancy boys!

    QUIT SUGGESTING LOSER DMEN WITH HUGE EVGA/60

    F…………………………………………K

    Can it be any more obvious!

    1. Good save% goalie on Shots (corsi-(blocks+misses)) inside 25 ft.

    2. Strong EVGA DMEN with above .45 EVA/60 puck transition ability

    3. 5 strong FO % Forwards for top line. Giving a strong start to ppuck Pocession. One of the most critical factors in Corsi numbers.

    4. As many high EVG/season and EVGF/60 forwards.
    there were 397 30 game forwards last year.
    1st line 4.06 EVGF/60 to 2.77
    2nd line 2.77 to 2.31
    3rd line 2.31 to 1.85
    4th 1.85 to 1.21

    LAK
    Gaborik 3.33
    Koptar 3.14
    —————————–2nd line
    Toffoli 2.68
    Carter 2.67
    King 2.66
    Wiliams 2.44
    —————————— 3rd line
    Paerson 2.15
    Stoll 2.14
    Brown 2.11
    Richards 1.95
    ——————————– 4th line
    Clifford 1.66

    EDM
    Hall 3.01
    Eberel 2.78
    —————————— 2nd line
    RNH 2.63
    Perron 2.61
    ————————— 3rd line
    Gagner 2.20
    Yak 2.07
    Arco 2.06
    —————————-4th
    Gordon 1.49

    we need 2 more in the top 6 with 6 Dman in the 2.00 EVGA/60 to compete with LA.

    Vanek 3.50 28.4 G/season
    Penner 3.37
    Statsny 3.29 21.3 g/season
    Parenteau 3.26 19.3 g/season
    J. jokinen 3.16 21.2G/season last 2.6 season (82+48=82) 55% FO
    Dubinsky 2.77
    B Richards 2.14 16 EVG and 21.7 G/season 52.5% FO
    B. Pouliot 2.52 12 EVG/season
    Bailey 2.49
    Winnick 2.39
    D. moss 2.30
    Goc 2.21 10 EVG/season 52.5% FO

  63. Doc Savage says:

    RexLibris:
    RexLibris says:
    June 18, 2014 at 1:04 pm

    Aaron Portzline via TSN: Umberger has a list of ten teams to whom he would refuse a trade.

    Is anyone else hoping that the Oilers’ persistent appearance on these lists continues here, if only for their own safety?

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=455101

    I think that is fairly safe to assume that if any player has a list of teams he won’t be traded too, that Edmonton is on that list. I like how we get excited when we hear a new player is coming on the market, and then as soon as we hear the inevitable “do not trade to list” exists, we are DIW, crushing our hopes yet again.

  64. rickithebear says:

    Smid EVGA/60 in Calgary 1.91

  65. OilFire says:

    Martin ILPA/72 in Pitts 1.31

  66. rickithebear says:

    Chambers

    23 min of top pairing Suck is still suck!

  67. Bar_Qu says:

    I know you have said before Ricki, but what does the number represent? Is it always EVGA/60?

    Generally I find your posts very obscure as a result of the lack of context, jmo.

  68. OilFire says:

    Bar_Qu,

    It’s all about pocession. Pocession is key to all.

  69. Lois Lowe says:

    OilFire,

    I see what you did there.

  70. Wolfpack says:

    When dealing with a team like Toronto, you can’t underestimate how valuable cap space is to them. For whatever reason, UFA’s want to sign there and if Toronto wants to chase the sexy signings they need that cap space badly. I think Clarkson could be had for a song because that contract is just terrible. But that is the same reason I don’t want to see him in Oilers silks.

    It is kind of ironic that Edmonton needs cap space in order to overpay UFA’s and teams like Toronto and NY need it so they can get as many of the best guys possible.

    Heard an interview yesterday on Gregor’s show where the media guy (can’t recall who) said that Jumbo Joe would not waive his no movement clause. He is a team guy who loves the team and the city and he doesn’t want to move. He also said Management talked to Marleau and he would be willing to waive. So SJ is really dismantling things. Guess they will build the forward core around Couture, Pavelski and Hertl. Wilson also plans on moving Brent Burns back to D. Pavelski is a dream but I wonder where Burns would fit in on the Oilers roster?

  71. RexLibris says:

    Off of a previous thread…

    Poor Islanders.

    Poor Oilers.

    Poor Spaniards.

  72. Gordies Elbow says:

    I’m not sure that I’d trade the 3rd. From 2000-2010, here is the list of 3rd overall picks:

    Erik Gudbranson
    Matt Duchene
    Zach Bogosian
    Kyle Turris
    Jonathan Toews
    Jack Johnson
    Cam Barker
    Nathan Horton
    Jay Bouwmeester
    Alexander Svitov
    Marian Gaborik

    There are some very good hockey players on that list. For comparison, here’s the 8th picks, same years:

    Alexander Burmistrov
    Scott Glennie
    Mikkel Boedker
    Zach Hamill
    Peter Mueller
    Devin Setoguchi
    Alexandre Picard
    Braydon Coburn
    Pierre-Marc Bouchard
    Pascal Leclaire
    Nikita Alexeev

    Still, good players, but the difference is apparent.

    Personally, I expect that Edmonton’s going to trade Martin Marincin for Braydon Coburn, and that Edmonton drafts Reinhart 3rd, after Ekblad and Draisatl go 1-2. MacTavish spends free agency looking for coke machines, as well. Not a homerun offseason, rather a single stretched into a double.

  73. John Chambers says:

    G Money,

    Sounds like a very interesting study.

    Indeed you can look at a contract like Hall’s that posits a minor ‘surplus’ in ’13-’14, but will provide even greater surpluses as Hall’s game matures and his cap hit shrinks relative to league.

    LeCavalier on the other hand offers a degree of negative value today, but that will look further and further red as his play will in all likelihood continue to diminish over the length of the contract.

    Phaneuf is somewhere in between where he offers a minor or negligible surplus, but on a big nut, and one that s in high demand especially for the Oilers of Edmonton. Even though the contract will begin to offer negative value nearer to the end, that will partially be offset by the rising cap, and contrary to what Ricki says, his 22 minutes of play is value so scarce it’s hard to fathom why an Oiler fan would turn their nose up at arguably the best Dman the team could boast since 44.

  74. Racki says:

    This rumor of trading Clarksons over priced dead weight to Edmonton needs to die. The actual idea we want to further pad that deal by dropping down 5 spots can go fudge itself as well. Noooooooo thank you!

    Gagner plus Klef for Phaneuf alone.. If Toronto does that I can handle that. I think Clarkson would be fine here, but the deal and term are scary as hell. Must avoid that mistake Toronto save the Oilers from.

  75. hags9k says:

    I can’t seem to get the Vollman site to work…Has anybody taken a look at Setoguchi’s sledgehammer the last couple years? He seems like he might be a sleeper/value contract possibility.

  76. spoiler says:

    RexLibris: Off of a previous thread…
    Poor Islanders.
    Poor Oilers.
    Poor Spaniards

    I agree, lol, but actually that last one would be Poor Rojas.

  77. Racki says:

    hags9k:
    I can’t seem to get the Vollman site to work…Has anybody taken a look at Setoguchi’s sledgehammer the last couple years?He seems like he might be a sleeper/value contract possibility.

    It is broken right now and he is aware. Someone suggested this link for now:
    http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/PUCv2_0/PlayerUsageChartTable?:showVizHome=no#1

  78. hags9k says:

    Racki,

    Perfect thanks Racki!

  79. RexLibris says:

    Racki: It is broken right now and he is aware. Someone suggested this link for now:
    http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/PUCv2_0/PlayerUsageChartTable?:showVizHome=no#1

    Thanks, I was trying to look up Komarov yesterday but couldn’t get the page to load. Thought it was a browser thing. Or maybe the intertubes were plugged with emails and messages. :)

  80. RexLibris says:

    Checking the live blog of Croatia/Cameroon.

    Kind of wish I were watching this one. Need to remember to set the DVR for some of these games, I keep working during the interesting ones.

  81. spoiler says:

    RexLibris: Checking the live blog of Croatia/Cameroon.Kind of wish I were watching this one. Need to remember to set the DVR for some of these games, I keep working during the interesting ones.

    I was very disappointed that the Ukraine didn’t make it this year and find themselves in Group H. Apologies to Icecastles for the wish, but there seems to be one of these politically volatile matchups every WC.

  82. G Money says:

    hags9k:
    I can’t seem to get the Vollman site to work…Has anybody taken a look at Setoguchi’s sledgehammer the last couple years?He seems like he might be a sleeper/value contract possibility.

    I think he might be a good pickup for the fourth line. Most of my theoretical but cap-realistic UFA lineups end up with him being the 4th line add.

    Vollman’s site seems to be having display problems but a look at some of the other sites suggests Setoguchi is just below neutral for Corsi but that’s offset by a somewhat tough zone start and mid-line QOC. Meaning I think for a 3/4L type of player, he saws off the competition. And that puts him miles ahead of our current 4th line and often our third line.

    Add good wheels, decent size (200 lbs), and having been schooled on some pretty good defensive teams in SJ and Minn, methinks he’d be a good add assuming a reasonable price.

  83. RexLibris says:

    spoiler: I was very disappointed that the Ukraine didn’t make it this year and find themselves in Group H.Apologies to Icecastles for the wish, but there seems to be one of these politically volatile matchups every WC.

    The path they had to take through France was almost funny in a way. After their first match it seemed so easy, almost as though they’d have to work to screw it up…and yet, screw it up they did (albeit with the appropriate amount of controversy).

    Colleague here at work was bemused by the fact that his soccer team (Ukraine) seems to display the same nihilistic behaviour as his hockey team (Oilers). I told him it was his fault.

  84. spoiler says:

    Does anyone know when the 2014-15 cap announcement is scheduled to be made? I think we’re sailing dead calm in the doldrums till teams know what the limit will be.

  85. spoiler says:

    G Money: I think he might be a good pickup for the fourth line. Most of my theoretical but cap-realistic UFA lineups end up with him being the 4th line add.

    I don’t think he will sign with a team for 4th line ice time.

  86. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    Maybe. Obviously, it depends on who else offers him what.

    Seems pretty clear that the Jets are going to be cutting him loose. If he gets a chance to play 3rd line somewhere else, then good on him. But if he’s a fourth line add for the Oilers (which I think he is), not so sure he’s going to have a lot of other, better teams lined up to have him play on their third line.

    Maybe the KHL? Then again, if I’m an Alberta kid (which Setoguchi is), I’d rather play 10 mins a night for a $1M for the Edmonton Oilers than get $1.5M to play 15mins a night for Traktor.

    And if he signs here for fourth line duty and finds his hands again and earns third line ice time … win-win. Would be nice to sign someone who overperforms expectations.

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