GREG CHASE, EVEN-STRENGTH BANDIT

Extra Skater now has a CHL Player Advanced Stats Division, which means we have one more brilliant tool to break down prospects. Sweet Jesus this is fun! Here are the Oilers top prospects EV/60 estimates from ES:

EV POINTS-PER-60 ESTIMATES FROM EXTRA SKATER

  1. Greg Chase 3.0
  2. Mitchell Moroz 2.6
  3. Marco Roy 2.1
  4. Jackson Houck 2.1
  5. Jujhar Khaira 1.9
  6. Darnell Nurse 1.2
  7. Ben Betker 0.9

I think we knew Greg Chase was the class of the group offensively. What’s VERY interesting is (at evens) he ranks twelfth in the entire WHL. This is a very good young player, we’ve seen his numbers parsed from every available angle and it always comes out looking very good. It’s important not to get ahead of ourselves, this is based on estimated time on ice, but he keeps showing up in good spots.

Sign this kid.

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74 Responses to "GREG CHASE, EVEN-STRENGTH BANDIT"

  1. Gordies Elbow says:

    As an Oil Kings fan, Greg Chase is a pain in the ass.

    That is all.

  2. PDO says:

    Find me a great team in the NHL and I’ll find you a very good player they found late in the draft. Sometimes you need to hit one of these out of the park….

    Greg Chase being found money would go a long way.

  3. raventalon40 says:

    I love the agitators. I would sign Brad Marchand and Brian Boyle and play them all on the same line.

    Marchand-Boyle-Chase

    One can dream.

  4. jp says:

    Chase needs to be signed, there’s no doubt about that.

    I’m pretty impressed with Moroz’s number though. Not too shabby for the player type and future NHL role (ie – not a scoring line).

    Also, check out who’s #1 in the entire CHL… Damn.
    http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?sort=points_ev_per60

  5. justDOit says:

    Looks like a great player. I’m not sure who is cheering more for him – me, or Gene Principe.

  6. Zangetsu says:

    Bennett shines over draisaitl here. Reinhart wasn’t on the first page.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Zangetsu:
    Bennett shines over draisaitl here. Reinhart wasn’t on the first page.

    Important for context. Have to keep in mind a strong team with great support is going to pump your numbers some. If you look at ‘draft eligible ALL

    http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?min_gp=50&pos=S&sort=points_all_per60&age=17

    it’s a horse race, which is what we’ve assumed.

  8. Gordies Elbow says:

    jp,

    Yep. I worry that Edmonton’s drafting has been too focused on the WHL, although it’s hard to argue with the results:

    Chase (pain in the ass): 3.0 EV P/60, ahead of players like Bo Horvat (at 2.8)
    Moroz (Top 10 in PIMs): 2.6 EV P/60, impressive for a player of his player type.

    3rd overall, Leon Draisaitl @ 2.9 EV P/60 or Sam Reinhart @ 2.8 EV P/60?

    For a couple of reasons, I think that Edmonton’s list is Ekblad, Draisaitl, and then Reinhart (Bennett is the best of the class @ 3.5, although I think he get’s nicked due to size and defensive awareness.)

    What will they do if Ekblad and Draisaitl go 1-2?

    Trade the pick?

  9. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide: Important for context. Have to keep in mind a strong team with great support is going to pump your numbers some. If you look at ‘draft eligible ALL

    http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?min_gp=50&pos=S&sort=points_all_per60&age=17

    it’s a horse race, which is what we’ve assumed.

    Look at the points share… Draisaitl in on 91.8% of the goals scored while he’s on the ice vs Bennett’s 73.7%.

    Draisaitl is sure driving the bus, though Reinhart isn’t far behind him in that regards. (Not that Bennett is chopped liver or anything)

    http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?sort=p_shr_ev&min_gp=50&age=17&pos=S

  10. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil: Look at the points share… Draisaitl in on 91.8% of the points scored while he’s on the ice vs Bennett’s 73.7%.

    Draisaitl is sure driving the bus, though Reinhart isn’t far behind him in that regards.

    http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?sort=p_shr_ev&min_gp=50&age=17&pos=S

    I think WG mentioned below about wishing we could see previous seasons. Agreed on that, because these look all-world but are they historically?

  11. wheatnoil says:

    True. I wonder what Hall’s number was back in the day. He was also on an all-world team. Being on a team with do many super-stars might necessarily reduce your IPP, because good players are going to score without you. That didn’t stop Hall from driving the bus in the NHL.

  12. Hammers says:

    I taped Hockey central at noon and on Friday the top guy from NHL scouting said 2 players could play next year Ekblad & Draisaitl . Very Interesting comments as he also said he wouldn’t be surprised no matter who is drafted 1st . Also indicated after the top 5 the next 10 could be in any order do to Euros plus Euros in the Q .He indicated he was old school & felt juniors needed to go back when they can other than a few exceptions . As for Chase I think we all agree that McT needs to sign him now . Also a bit surprised that Moroz is 2nd on our list . Still shows us what coaching in junior & the AHL can do for players with potential .

  13. Zangetsu says:

    Lowetide,

    At the same time though, when you have bad teammates the puck is on your stick more. A lot of players put up better numbers on bad teams, kovalchuk comes to mind here. Teammates impact on numbers is hard to quantify.

  14. WeirsBeard says:

    I brought this up in a previous thread but as LT has been on fire this week, it sort of got passed over. I’m curious about league effects outside of point equivilencies.

    How does the league they are playing in factor in for who the Oil should, or will, pick?

    Outside of point equivalencies, which is most like the Western Conference or Pacific Division? Does coming from a physical junior league or division help in preparing the prospect?
    Are the Oil more interested in drafting a WHL player, as they are more likely to be culturally close to the Oilers or western Canada?

    The MSM always seems to overvalue the OHL players, while undervaluing the Dub and the Q. Simply from seeing these guys more, as so much national media is in TO?

    I wish there were more numbers more easily available on the CHL earlier, to compare these things like TOI and deployment. So cheers to extraskater.

  15. Sevenseven says:

    Exciting to see the oilers development system improve so much!

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This is so exciting. I don’t even know where to begin.

    One thing I looked at right away was the two chased after undrafted kids: Fox and Holmberg (Nucks signed the former, Oil the latter).

    http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?sort=points_all&min_gp=75

    All P/60: both 4.2
    ES p/60 3.6 (Fox); 2.5 (Holm)
    ES GF% 67.9% (Fox); 62.8% (Holm)
    IPP: 85.1% (Fox); 78.9% (Holm)

    Fox is also a Center and somewhat larger.

    Neither has a huge shot at NHL work. but, Fox looks quite a bit superior here.

    (on contract, the Oilers won here… the Nucks gave Fox an NHL contract; Oil gave Holmberg an AHL)

  17. wheatnoil says:

    The problem with Moroz is that he might be getting zoomed by Samuelsson. Moroz doesn’t appear to be driving the offence with only 67.1% points share. He also hasn’t been getting any short-handed time, which is a little surprising for a guy who was on the shut-down line last year. His 2.6 even-strength points / 60 is also only 5th on the team, and he’s one of the older forwards.

    Not trying to write the guy off by any means, but it’ll be interesting to see how much offense he can bring to pros and whether he can hit above the Mendoza line, so to speak.

  18. wheatnoil says:

    This Anthony DeAngelo kid has some pretty damn impressive offense for a D-man. Leads the OHL D-men in points/60 and EV points/60, and points share (58.5%!, only one other D-man is over 50%, Nurse is in 7th at 40.7%). He also pretty much plays the entire powerplay for his team, he’s on the ice for an estimated 82.4% of his team’s powerplay! He’s also playing a regular short-handed shift and is on the ice for over 30 minutes a game (second the OHL).

    I know he’s small (5’11″, 165 lbs) but damn, the guy can put up numbers!

  19. VanOil says:

    So what have learned today?

    Extraskater is awesome (you may have suspected this already)

    Chase had an awesome season (you may have suspected this already)

    And Draisaitl is pretty good despite LT hating him (you may have suspected this already)

    I also suspect that Nikitin is not yet/going to be an Oiler. I hope this frees up MacT to acquire Fayne and Kulikov.

  20. Lowetide says:

    VanOil:
    So what have learned today?

    Extraskater is awesome (you may have suspected this already)

    Chase had an awesome season (you may have suspected this already)

    And Draisaitl is pretty good despite LT hating him (you may have suspected this already)

    I also suspect that Nikitin is not yet/going to be an Oiler. I hope this frees up MacT to acquire Fayne and Kulikov.

    He’s got the Smid hair.

  21. rickithebear says:

    Zangetsu:
    Bennett shines over draisaitl here. Reinhart wasn’t on the first page.

    holy Fuck!
    Have you played elite sport?

    TEH BETTER A PLAYER IS THAN HIS TEAMTES THE MORE THE PLAY GOES THRU THEM.
    A Fact to any who Played at that level!
    So player share is a reflection of teammates.

    I look at Draisaitl and see 91.8%
    and non experienced talk about repeatability.

    Wholly Fucking Taylor Hall!

    Bennett is 73.7% cause his teamates can generate.

    Bennett is 3.5 EVP/60 with 73.7 Point share.
    Draisaitl is 2,9 EVP/60 with a 91.8 point share
    wounded how he would do with teamates that could generate more like bennetts teamates.
    91.8/73.7 = 1.2456
    If his teamates were generating like bennets his EVP/60 would increase cause of there added offence.
    1.2456 X 2.9 EVP/60 = 3.6 EVP/60

    The less thru a player the better the teamates.

    Pretty much gives us the teamate factor and you can do a cross compare if we know a trended average over 3-5 years.
    Fabri 3.4 and 71.8%
    Kulda 3.2 and 76.3%
    Chase 3.0 and 80.9% Holy Home run!

    Andrew mangiapane please!
    87.5/73.7 = 4.04 EVP/60

    Sorry wheat oil just saw yours but it gives us a nice Player to player check!

  22. VanOil says:

    Lowetide: He’s got the Smid hair.

    I am sure there is a story about a trip to a Prince Albert barber shop in there some where.

  23. VanOil says:

    rickithebear: holy Fuck!
    Have you played elite sport?

    TEH BETTER A PLAYER IS THAN HIS TEAMTES THE MORE THE PLAY GOES THRU THEM.

    I once played 4th division mixed sex beer league softball. The soberest player did the most work. Is that the same thing?

  24. PDO says:

    VanOil: I once played 4th division mixed sex beer league softball. The soberest player did the most work. Is that the same thing?

    I once played in a mixed sex beer league. The soberest player did the most work. Is this the same thing?

  25. Rondo says:

    rickithebear,

    Given Draisaitl ice time and given the amount of points that go through him. You would think that teams put their best players against him. On better teams there are more productive lines

  26. PDO says:

    Question to the group:

    Lets say Gardiner + 8 for the 3 is on the table.

    Is that a deal we make?

    If we make that deal, we know Jordan Staal was dealt not too long ago for the 10 and Sutter.

    Could we trade the 8th + ?? (Gagner at half salary?) for Staal straight up?

    Sure, we miss out on a ton of draft picks… but we pick up a top 4 D and a top 9 C who are both young and help right now.

  27. Lowetide says:

    PDO:
    Question to the group:

    Lets say Gardiner + 8 for the 3 is on the table.

    Is that a deal we make?

    If we make that deal, we know Jordan Staal was dealt not too long ago for the 10 and Sutter.

    Could we trade the 8th + ?? (Gagner at half salary?) for Staal straight up?

    Sure, we miss out on a ton of draft picks… but we pick up a top 4 D and a top 9 C who are both young and help right now.

    I’m getting Gardiner and Staal? For No. 3 and Gagner plus I take on the salary? I’d have to look at Staal again just to make sure he hasn’t stumbled when I wasn’t looking, but yes I think so.

  28. PDO says:

    CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
    CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
    FORWARDS
    Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.000m) / Nail Yakupov ($0.925m)
    David Perron ($3.813m) / Jordan Staal ($6.000m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
    Daniel Winnik ($2.750m) / Mark Arcobello ($0.600m) / David Moss ($2.750m)
    Matt Hendricks ($1.850m) / Boyd Gordon ($3.000m) / Tyler Pitlick ($0.851m)
    Anton Lander ($0.600m) /
    DEFENSEMEN
    Martin Marincin ($0.730m) / Jeff Petry ($4.000m)
    Mark Fayne ($4.000m) / Justin Schultz ($3.000m)
    Jake Gardiner ($3.000m) / Andrew Ference ($3.250m)
    Oscar Klefbom ($0.894m) /
    GOALTENDERS
    Viktor Fasth ($2.900m)
    Ben Scrivens ($2.300m)
    BUYOUTS
    Eric Belanger ($0.000m)
    BURIED
    Jesse Joensuu ($0.025m)
    RETAINED SALARIES (3.38% of upper limit)
    Sam Gagner ($2.400m—50.00%)
    BONUS OVERAGE
    $0

    I’ll excuse myself now, but I had to have some fun with it.

    That work? Is that a playoff team? I think third in the division is what the team should be shooting for… we’re not catching SJS or LAK, but everyone else seems fair game?

    That team has about $3,500,000 cap space and I guessed on a lot of contracts.

  29. PDO says:

    Lowetide: I’m getting Gardiner and Staal? For No. 3 and Gagner plus I take on the salary? I’d have to look at Staal again just to make sure he hasn’t stumbled when I wasn’t looking, but yes I think so.

    I’m leery of Staal; I’m not sure how much offense he has. But he can play, and he can play big boy minutes, and he’s probably what you’re hoping Draisalt turns into anyway. Oiler’s are giving up a lot of future in that scenario, and they’re doing it twice while not having any picks in the top 100. Would take big balls, but adds two difference makers to the roster and neither is anywhere near old.

  30. VanOil says:

    PDO,

    Leaving the draft with Jake Gardiner and Jordan Staal would work for me. It kind of works out too getting 2 very good players now versus the possibility of one elite player in the future. I don’t know if MacT can be sure he can pull off a double barrel trade like that going into the first trade though.

  31. RexLibris says:

    PDO:
    Question to the group:

    Lets say Gardiner + 8 for the 3 is on the table.

    Is that a deal we make?

    If we make that deal, we know Jordan Staal was dealt not too long ago for the 10 and Sutter.

    Could we trade the 8th + ?? (Gagner at half salary?) for Staal straight up?

    Sure, we miss out on a ton of draft picks… but we pick up a top 4 D and a top 9 C who are both young and help right now.

    No. I don’t.

    The Oilers have been hunting for a C with size since they traded Jason Arnott. And they’d been looking for him since they moved Messier.

    It has been ages since they’ve had a big C who could actually play.

    Draisaitl is that guy.

    Keep the #3, take Draisaitl and then shoot the breeze with Dale Tallon about Sam Gagner’s days back in London with that Patrick Kane kid until he thinks he’s come up with an original idea and decides he could put Gagner on the wing with Barkov or Huberdeau.

  32. Deadman Waiting says:

    Assists are a dubious measure of goal share. Blind saucer pass with authority from the corner to the far point, one step howitzer, deflection, rebound.

    Value of saucer pass: priceless.

    It would be better if there was actually a goal share statistic where every goal added up to 1 (including opponents given positive credit for a major brain fart, such as the infamous Oiler drop-pass setting up the fast break 1 on 0, and wandering goalies gift-wrapping an empty cage).

    I’d probably grant at least a sliver of goal share to every player on the attacking team who touched the puck in any meaningful way since the last reset (puck crosses one of the three major lines going the other direction where the other team has recently touched the puck). Bigger sliver awarded for players involved in zone exit under control than zone exit banged blindly off the glass.

    When we have machine vision that automatically reconstructs the path of the puck (based on multiple camera angles), assigning a proper goal share statistic becomes practical.

    There’s still the problem of bias due to players making plays that are high in risk-reward. Blind drop passes are a boxcar bonanza for both sides. And you still miss the contribution from players whose perfect defensive positioning induces the opposing team to wallow in Plan B.

    When you get right down to it, there’s no definitive ranking system for plays made. Many choices are equally viable on the ice, if they work within and support the team’s structure, identity, playing style, and culture. The harder I think about this, the more I recognize that leadership is an ability to steer the group culture to where it needs to be by the time it gets there.

    Any way you slice it, statistics primarily measure the triumph of the individual over the group.

  33. PDO says:

    RexLibris: No. I don’t.

    The Oilers have been hunting for a C with size since they traded Jason Arnott. And they’d been looking for him since they moved Messier.

    It has been ages since they’ve had a big C who could actually play.

    Draisaitl is that guy.

    Keep the #3, take Draisaitl and then shoot the breeze with Dale Tallon about Sam Gagner’s days back in London with that Patrick Kane kid until he thinks he’s come up with an original idea and decides he could put Gagner on the wing with Barkov or Huberdeau.

    Jordan Staal is 6’4″ and 25 years old. His offense is far from elite (I’d say counting numbers wise you expect 20-20 out of him), but behind Nuge and with guys like Perron and Eberle maybe there is room for growth there… he is only 25.

    Heck, even if we add to include Klefbom to finish this deal, if you’re adding Gardiner that is suddenly a lot easier to do, is it not?

  34. PDO says:

    If the Oiler’s had addressed their top 6 (Hall/Nuge/Yak, Perron/Staal/Eberle) and top 4 (Marincin/Petry, Gardiner/Schultz, with Nurse on the way)…. don’t they have some time to not get anything from a draft? It would hurt, no doubt…. but it’s not like any of those guys are anywhere near needing replacements either.

    Sell the farm on this draft, and have a team push for a playoff spot next year. This core needs to get into the playoffs.

  35. JamesL says:

    Chase seems promising, but what is a reasonable comparable NHL player for him based on the results so far? What is his “outer marker”, in other words?

    Furthermore, why did he fall to the final round? I’ve heard “personality issues” cited as a reason. I’ve personally witnessed some extremely foul-mouthed chirping from him at the Golden Bears/Oilers rookies game, so I could imagine that he may not exactly be a charmer in person. But we all know that hockey isn’t exactly a gentleman’s game, so I wonder if there’s something more here that I don’t know about.

  36. Gordies Elbow says:

    PDO,

    I like this – I see room for growth in J. Staal, and given the right wingers, would really improve the current Oil. Gardiner and Schultz, together again, would be great as well.

    That said, I’m expecting a Marincin for Coburn deal, Edmonton to draft Draisaitl, and deal Gagner for a return that will be remarkably underwhelming. I think that it’s going to be a challenging week.

  37. PDO says:

    JamesL:
    Chase seems promising, but what is a reasonable comparable NHL player for him based on the results so far? What is his “outer marker”, in other words?

    Furthermore, why did he fall to the final round? I’ve heard “personality issues” cited as a reason.I’ve personally witnessed some extremely foul-mouthed chirping from him at the Golden Bears/Oilers rookies game, so I could imagine that he may not exactly be a charmer in person. But we all know that hockey isn’t exactly a gentleman’s game, so I wonder if there’s something more here that I don’t know about.

    I know some people really don’t like him.

    When the Oil Kings played the Hitmen last playoffs (15 months ago), my buddy and I were incredulous because the entire game there was a guy in the gold seats behind us screaming “CHASE YOU SUCK” at every given opportunity.

    We thought he was yelling at the ref for the longest time.

    Then he yelled “HEY GOALIE (he had the guys name), TELL CHASE, HE SUCKS!”

    Goalie laughed.

    Realized at that point he was on the Hitmen and man…. everybody hates him.

    The Oiler’s could use more guys that everybody hates.

  38. Zangetsu says:

    rickithebear,

    Hall played on a much better team than seguin, they’re roughly equal now. Draisaitl looks good by % of goals contributed to, but bennett is way ahead in pts/60 and ev scoring. There is no good way to quantify the difference between playing on a bad team or a good team. Draisaitl was no doubt held back by him teamates, but is was it enough to cover the spread? Bennett likely played less pp, and his teamates were less likely to involve him in the play. Really, the % difference could just be a result of bennetts teamates finishing plays that draisaitls teamates missed. Theres too much guesswork to say Draisaitl is vastly superior. Trust your scouts this draft.

  39. PDO says:

    For the record; I trust Bennett a shit ton more than I trust Draisatl.

    I like both. I think Bennett should be #1 though. I’ve seen each play once… I’m going strictly off of stats and scouting reports. I see tons of room for growth in Bennett and love that he’s a guy who is an incredible skater and wants to own both ends of the rink. Draisatl is great at being the best player on a bad team; what happens to him when every play doesn’t go to him?

    The thing about being the best player on the worst team is everyone defaults to you. You get the puck no matter what.

    It’s a lot easier to look amazing as the best player on a bad team than the best player on a great team.

    That’s why I take Bennett.

  40. Lowetide says:

    PDO:
    For the record; I trust Bennett a shit ton more than I trust Draisatl.

    I like both.I think Bennett should be #1 though.I’ve seen each play once… I’m going strictly off of stats and scouting reports.I see tons of room for growth in Bennett and love that he’s a guy who is an incredible skater and wants to own both ends of the rink.Draisatl is great at being the best player on a bad team; what happens to him when every play doesn’t go to him?

    The thing about being the best player on the worst team is everyone defaults to you.You get the puck no matter what.

    It’s a lot easier to look amazing as the best player on a bad team than the best player on a great team.

    That’s why I take Bennett.

    My reasons for taking Bennett are birthday, range of skills and perhaps most importantly in-season development

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=31165

  41. Marc says:

    JamesL:
    Chase seems promising, but what is a reasonable comparable NHL player for him based on the results so far? What is his “outer marker”, in other words?

    Jordan Eberle: GP G A Pt PIM +/-
    Draft -1 Regina Pats 66 28 27 55 32 13
    Draft Regina Pats 70 42 33 75 20 5
    Draft +1 Regina Pats 61 35 39 74 20 -4
    Draft +1 Springfield(AHL) 9 3 6 9 4 -5

    Greg Chase: GP G A Pt PIM +/-
    Draft -1 Calgary Hitmen 60 6 22 28 41 2
    Draft Calgary Hitmen 69 17 32 49 58 11
    Draft +1 Calgary Hitmen 70 35 50 85 83 29
    Draft +1 OKC (AHL) 5 1 0 1 4 1

    Eberle shows a bit more offence (especially in his AHL audition), but they’re actually pretty close through the draft +1 year, so there’s your outer marker.

    Eberle scored close to 2 PPG in his draft +2 year in the WHL though. If Chase can do the same it might be time to start getting excited.

  42. jp says:

    PDO: I’m leery of Staal; I’m not sure how much offense he has.But he can play, and he can play big boy minutes, and he’s probably what you’re hoping Draisalt turns into anyway.Oiler’s are giving up a lot of future in that scenario, and they’re doing it twice while not having any picks in the top 100.Would take big balls, but adds two difference makers to the roster and neither is anywhere near old.

    I’d be all in on Staal and the pair of deals you proposed. Not sure about Carolina though – that deal a couple of years back was a steal for them.

    He’s brought virtually Gagner offense thus far (0.57 career PPG vs 0.61 for Gagner). Unlike Gagner, Stall actually did reach 50 points once (plus 2 other seasons of 49). Possibly aided by the Pens offense some, but he didn’t get much time with the big boys.

    He’s been a positive CorsiRel every year that BTN tracks (back to 2007-08). Was 2nd and 1st on the Canes the past 2 seasons. All the while playing against 1st line opposition with zone starts ranging from tough to average (never a push – and this going back to 07-08).

    The WOWY shows that every one of the 13 Canes he played >100 minutes with last year was better with him than without him. In 12-13 it was 9 of 10 better with him.

    This is the player the Oilers need down the middle. Also 220 lbs and 25 yrs old. If MacT could swing a deal like this it would be huge!! Draisaitl could be this player down the line (better offense even), but it’s far from a given.

    Edit:
    Here are Staal’s most common linemates by year:
    13-14 – Gerbe, Dwyer, Semin, Tlusty, Lindholm
    12-13 – Skinner, Dwyer, Ruutu, Jokinen, Larose
    11-12 – Dupuis, Cooke, Kennedy, Kunitz, Sullivan
    10-11 – Kennedy, Cooke, Kunitz, Dupuis, Neal
    09-10 – Cooke, Kennedy, Guerin, Fedotenko, Dupuis
    08-09 – Kennedy, Cooke, Sykora, Satan, Fedotenko
    07-08 – Kennedy, Sykora, Malone, Talbot, Roberts

  43. PDO says:

    Lowetide: My reasons for taking Bennett are birthday, range of skills and perhaps most importantly in-season development

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=31165

    Love all of those too.

    I would be ecstatic if we took the young man, but I certainly won’t be upset if we take Draisatl. I don’t think he’s a bad pick; I just don’t think he’s the best pick on the board.

  44. supernova says:

    It’s funny to me that a lot of people here are Fancy Stats supporters.

    The stats are good for both Leon and Bennett but because of the difference in teams and players who are on the teams you can’t tell if one is that much better than the other.

    Then you bring in the “seen him good” part. Which tends to support Bennett because of his style of play. The fact that he plays in your face and gets lots of PIMs leans the crowd toward him.

    Then you look at size and factor in the size of the Oilers top 6 and we see the needle rise for Leon.

    I am surmising that the Oilers scouting staff are also split on this. Chances are the OHL guy loves Bennett and the WHL loves Leon.

    It seems the Oilers are in a tough spot on this. Seeing how 90% of oilers fans wanted Yak and a lot of those fans have now second guessed the scouting staff for a decision they supported at the time.

    Leon versus Bennett is a second take on Taylor vs Tyler. Both provide an area that the Oilers are missing and both have an inherit risk to not being the player chosen.

    Man do I love the draft.

    But I have a feeling it will come down to the development of how the organization helps the chosen player after the draft.

    Set them up for success.

  45. whiskeytangoeberle says:

    i got almost zero of the content for this collage from racki and woodguy posts, in the
    future please write more crazy. thanks!

    who is Andrew Mangiapane?

    he is not a centre-piece, nor shall he ever be.

    wounded how he would do

    That’s the statistical starting point for assessing the goodness of

    at least one more critical interrelated piece of information, namely

    he can play big boy minutes,

    Agents always say stuff like that because it serves their interests.

    so the lesson here is interpreting data.

    It’s simple statistical fluency.

    game theoretic factors tend to drain signal out of the pool.

    blah, blah, blah… and you’ve got a few ingredients for the recipe and can start to taste to
    see what else you need.

    There exists some number

    find his price and stick to or near it.

    They almost always come crashing back to earth.

    Man! I would be in favour of planning the parade if that takes place!

    i’ll appeal to everyone’s sense of logic this way:

    “…and today, he too is the President of General Motors.”

    no offense to him, we are doomed.

    Someday, someone will develop an algorithm that factors fluid decision dynamics for

    think you actually have “noise”

    they are more likely to be culturally close

    The problem with this being a game theoretic analysis, is that competence doesn’t just come
    out in the wash: it’s also an enabling presumption, with a feedback loop from output to
    input.

    According to a published report (I don’t use that phrase enough)

    Chocolate! Rock and Roll! Marijuana brownies!

    We all need to understand one very basic thing here,…
    In business circles its called — “falling in love with the inventory”.

    In other words, it was an opinion, not a report.

    and non experienced talk about repeatability.

    A Fact to any who Played at that level!

    That is f…………..g hands on!

    the development environment will play a huge part too

    therefore skewing the analysis, because on a micro level is isn’t.

    The key to measuring the function of any machine iss properly defining the range an
    instrument is measuring.

    What would happen if skiers demanded to live in California or Spain or Mexico all year
    round?

    I have no idea.

    It show’s that some have a better understanding of things than others, but that is a given.

    If you don’t understand the how noise can swamp signal you aren’t competent to have an
    opinion on this issue.

    Yes thanks to all the big brains here over the years

    I better get on my horse informing the half dozen people in my social circle

    dealing and chasing rainbows with pots of gold.

    Darryl Katz as the butler was hilarious in that movie.

    He’s polite, because in the cold light of empirical evidence, what can he say?

    Hey Boris! It was semi-autobiographical, lol!

    What an odd reaction…

    One went as far to say that you were sugar coating

    I actually disagree in a pedantic and purely technical sense that the “noise swamps the
    signal” in this case

    give you persistent and correlated anti-results

    in conjunction with who he is on the ice

    You’ll probably end up OK and on the correct side of the argument.

    and the persistent non-correlated effects of those other data streams (sort of the opposite
    of noise)

    based on the above fantastic arguments,

    but Luongo still wanted to be with his wife.

    Trade routes follow patterns.

    I’m not sure you could ask for much more from him.

    I didn’t get tablets from a mountain telling me, I’m guessing

    Nick Schultz has hair on his ass. There’s plenty more where he came from.

    being found money would go a long way.

    This just sounds like agreed-to tampering.

    My understanding was that these types of trades were always actual trades.

    I’m feeling good about this acquisition as evening draws near,

    The store might end up out of stock, but hard to make that evaluation before it opens.

    you also avoid getting shut out and being left with a bunch of unlabelled mystery meat cans

    Just wait to see which can of pasta sauce others don’t want because it has a small,
    immaterial dent on it, and buy that one at a lesser price.

    I get your point on buying the sauce can for cheap with the immaterial dent in it… but
    that’s assuming that such a product exists

    But if all your cans of pasta have dents in them

    the way we normally understand opportunity cost doesn’t always apply.

    Here is his tightrope and that is how much above say

    this is what we are offering now. Then who is the idiot.

    Is he a bit fragile for a big guy?

    fixture in the community, so on and so forth

    has the brains to avoid this place like the plague

    and I personally don’t want a player that is looking for lifestyle.

    This is a prudent move,

    Nobody got rich by giving away their stock certificates for smiles

    but I bet he would fit in like a glove in our room too.

    Or, is this some kind of ad lib?

    Ladies and Gentlemen, just took a stroll down memory lane

    On the island this summer I’m kinda gonna be fan boy beggin Stoner

    Shooting gun in close and at distance.

    smooth out all the noise. But, it’s still there.

    Heck on my wedding day I was not this wired for sound.

    Does anyone else get the feeling there is more to come today. I hope so.

    I want them to be pure evil on a stick,

    You guys will find this surprising but I have office admin to type up my reports!

    This crude keyboard is incapable of sufficiently translating my feelings on this
    development.

    This is what I was trying to say but couldn’t do so.

    i’ll find you a wife. Promise.

    the backend may bite.

    but imo thats a built in character test

    if it doesn’t work out, it won’t be for lack of effort or fear of failure.

    The ignored risk is that the chairs

    maybe they’ll sneak In a few monitor shots

    machine vision that automatically reconstructs

    OHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

    *that* would truly provide an incredible valuation tool

    a beautiful thing to behold.

    and we will all walk around for a week with massive erections. Wives will weep and small
    children will laugh and point.

    That’s what good teams do.

    Got lost in trying to follow the threads.

    Which one scares you more.
    My answer is A.

    Crazy land!

  46. supernova says:

    jp: I’d be all in on Staal and the pair of deals you proposed. Not sure about Carolina though – that deal a couple of years back was a steal for them.

    He’s brought virtually Gagner offense thus far (0.57 career PPG vs 0.61 for Gagner). Unlike Gagner, Stall actually did reach 50 points once (plus 2 other seasons of 49). Possibly aided by the Pens offense some, but he didn’t get much time with the big boys.

    He’s been a positive CorsiRel every year that BTN tracks (back to 2007-08). Was 2nd and 1st on the Canes the past 2 seasons. All the while playing against 1st line opposition with zone starts ranging from tough to average (never a push – and this going back to 07-08).

    The WOWY shows that every one of the 13 Canes he played >100 minutes with last year was better with him than without him. In 12-13 it was 9 of 10 better with him.

    This is the player the Oilers need down the middle. Also 220 lbs and 25 yrs old. If MacT could swing a deal like this it would be huge!! Draisaitl could be this player down the line (better offense even), but it’s far from a given.

    PDO,

    Outside of the Staals they have a size issue up front as well. Why would the deal to a smaller sized player with this concern.

    My money is on Skinner being moved before the Staals unless they want out.

  47. Yak2 says:

    You didn’t really need to look at his advanced stats to know how good he is. He was an absolute steal in the 7th round. Brad Marchand clone

  48. wheatnoil says:

    Oilers schedule for 2014/15. Open with Calgary at home on Oct 9, close with Vancouver on the road Apr 11. Longest road trip is 7 games at the end of October. Longest home-stand is 6 games in February.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/schedulebyseason.htm?team=edm

  49. jp says:

    supernova: PDO,

    Outside of the Staals they have a size issue up front as well. Why would the deal to a smaller sized player with this concern.

    My money is on Skinner being moved before the Staals unless they want out.

    I completely agree, I wouldn’t move Staal if I were Carolina either. There has been talk about him being shopped though, whatever the reason/price.

    Just saying if I’m MacT and that deal is on the table I’d be over the moon.

    Also addressing earlier mention of Staal’s offense. I think it’s more than sufficient. And the rest of the package clearly offsets any limitations. He is EXACTLY what the Oilers need at 2C imo.

    Draisaitl and Gagner for Staal and Gardiner? Yes please.

  50. PDO says:

    Hey, I’m sure Skinner is available too.

    But he’s small and has concussion issues and that hurts his value.

    I wonder if Semin is the guy the Oiler’s should really be looking at, though I’m not sure they would have the guts to add him.

  51. PLUGGER says:

    Good Sunday Guys!
    I think WhiskeyTangoEberle is trying to say the same thing that I feel. Cam Down for Gord’s sake!
    Jordan Staal is not coming to Edmonton. Rom and anybody else who is dreaming this. Got a trade to Carolina, a NMC once there to play with his brother and not for Gags and the 8th.
    This and especially this year is the best time of year but Weberesque type dreams are wasting time right now.
    The original proposal/thought was Oilers didn’t need forwards so a Toronto media dreams up Gardiner and the 8th for the 3rd. So apparently this crap is going on in Toronto too.
    So smile, enjoy a great, beautiful Sunnyday. Please pass along thoughts that are relevant, but, save the crapfor times when there is nothing to speak of and not draft week!

  52. Caramel Obvious says:

    Birthday plus best scorer makes Bennett the hands down choice. This is a no brainer.

    Though the real no brainer is Gardiner + 8 for 3. That’s an easy yes.

  53. jp says:

    PDO:
    Hey, I’m sure Skinner is available too.

    But he’s small and has concussion issues and that hurts his value.

    I wonder if Semin is the guy the Oiler’s should really be looking at, though I’m not sure they would have the guts to add him.

    The other two are fine players, but the Oilers biggest need is a C that can play 2-way hockey. Staal is that. Skinner and Semin are not. Heck, he’s even developed into a good FO guy (>54% last year, and >50% for the past 3 yrs). If he’s available, get him. I don’t know that there’s a better fit…

  54. VanOil says:

    supernova:
    The stats are good for both Leon and Bennett but because of the difference in teams and players who are on the teams you can’t tell if one is that much better than the other.

    I find it interesting, given that the stats are largely a wash, that people who believe possession is the most important concept in modern hockey are seduced by Bennett’s crash and bang ‘driver’ style of play over Draisaitl’s possession style of play.

    Randy Carlye with a calculator can’t stop Kessel scoring nor can he make Toronto win. Odds are both Bennett and Draisaitl will be good players. Bennett will score and hit more, Draisaitl will have the puck more. I choose the player that has the puck more.

    See Dangle’s comments on the Selke winners and the Stanely Cup http://youtu.be/99XqPFIk-Fg?t=2m41s

  55. Dale says:

    More metrics, please! I know metrics are the rage, but I feel bored by them.

    Too old to care. I just follow the signings, the trades, the game on the ice.

    When did hockey become baseball? Hate getting constipated by stats!

  56. Lowetide says:

    jp: Merry Christmas LT :)

    Christ. I shat when I saw it.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Dale:
    More metrics, please! I know metrics are the rage, but I feel bored by them.

    Too old to care. I just follow the signings, the trades, the game on the ice.

    When did hockey become baseball? Hate getting constipated by stats!

    You’ve come to the right place, Dale!

  58. supernova says:

    VanOil: I find it interesting, given that the stats are largely a wash, that people who believe possession is the most important concept in modern hockey are seduced by Bennett’s crash and bang ‘driver’ style of play over Draisaitl’s possession style of play.

    Randy Carlye with a calculator can’t stop Kessel scoring nor can he make Toronto win. Odds are both Bennett and Draisaitl will be good players. Bennett will score and hit more, Draisaitl will have the puck more. I choose the player that has the puck more.

    See Dangle’s comments on the Selke winners and the Stanely Cup http://youtu.be/99XqPFIk-Fg?t=2m41s

    VanOil,

    It seems we are in agreement.

    Seems like all year long the blogosphere argues that the oilers need possession players and if they have size that’s a bonus and most tend to snicker at the people who want crash and bang and say “that doesn’t win you games in the long run”

    Now we are at draft season and we have diametric opposite players.

    The possession player at long last with size or the highly rated Tasmanian devil who isn’t bigger than any current top 6.

    Possession versus Tasmanian

    I chose possession as well

    I for one won’t second guess if they chose the opposite, I get the attraction.

  59. Dicky94 says:

    Would much rather trade down with Carolina for Stall and the 8th. The trade the 8th straight up for Coburn. Don’t have to move Petry or any d prospects. Not a Gardiner fan. Gagner would have to be in the Stall trade.

  60. justDOit says:

    Dale:
    More Metric, please!

    Here.

  61. Dicky94 says:

    Dicky94,

    Sorry, the 7th pick. If it could be done before the draft Philly would easily move Coburn for 7th. They could make a big splash for 1st overall. 7 and 17th picks.

  62. sliderule says:

    Draisaitl or Bennett sounds good to me.The statistics are making my eyes spin but it all sounds good for both.

    But please dear God no trades out of the top five like Toronto hacks propose.

    Any trade out of top five has to have the player coming in at least as good as the pick.Gardiner in this draft would be picked about the same as in his first go around.Mid first round at best.

  63. hags9k says:

    Monday, I go to work
    Tuesday, can’t find my shirt
    Wednesday, I’m feelin’ Bennet
    I’m helpless, Daryl’
    Without you, without you
    Without you, without you
    Thursdays, everything’s Aaron
    Friday, I’m out of my mind
    Friday, I’m out of my mind
    Saturday, Reinhart too
    It’s hopeless, Daryl’
    Without you, without you
    Without you, without you

    Each and every night of the week
    I toss and turn in my sleep
    Worryin’ if you’re all right Leon
    Wonderin’ where you are tonight

  64. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Every Picture Tells A Story.

    Fuck Rod Stewart.

    Great fucking song. Great fucking album.

    Those Faces days must have been whiskey reeked affairs. Nasty and lovely at the same time.

  65. nycoil says:

    whiskeytangoeberle,
    Reading all the comments out loud after you compiled them in your post, I imagine you part Edgar Allan Prose, part post-Warhol contemporary artist, part Hybrid from BSG.

  66. nycoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    And Rod Stewart brings us back full circle to Jarret Stoll and Oilerdom. Crazy.

  67. whiskeytangoeberle says:

    nycoil,

    Thank you for your kind words.

    I had to look up the BSG reference and found this:

    “Number Twos believe that the Hybrid’s words have religious significance.”

    I was secretly hoping any paranoid individuals who frequent this site would pour over that post looking for the infinite indecipherable code embodied within.

    Did you like my ass jokes at the end?

  68. G Money says:

    whiskeytangoeberle,

    Screw that – I want stats!

    I counted at least four, maybe five lines from my posts.

    Did I win?

    ENQUIRING MINDS WANT TO KNOW. Or at least me.

  69. whiskeytangoeberle says:

    G Money,

    Yeah, your voice is great to work with. Don’t know how to describe it but you really punch through the hazecrowd.

    The one that really came out of left field for me was John Chambers. I don’t think I’ve ever paid any attention to that guy’s posts but he provided a few gems a couple of threads ago.

    And when it comes to asking me about who won, I would advise you to exercise humility, I have a huge crush on rickithebear.

    See ya, thanks for the feedback..

  70. G Money says:

    whiskeytangoeberle: And when it comes to asking me about who won, I would advise you to exercise humility, I have a huge crush on rickithebear.

    Good idea. We all do.

    Plus I’m a huge fan of BSG and ass jokes.

  71. nycoil says:

    whiskeytangoeberle,

    Of course! Who doesn’t like ass jokes? What did one butt cheek say to his friend, the other? We can’t let any sh1t come between us.

  72. shawnmullin says:

    Where are they getting time on ice numbers here? I know it says estimated but how and by whom? That can mess with things incredibly. I just was taking a look at the Bronco numbers and not all of them are where I’d think they would be.

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