HARD TARGET SEARCH: THE BRUINS

The Boston Bruins are in the news cycle these days, as the offseason planning rolls forward in 28 NHL cities. CSNNE.com had a story a few days ago that listed both Brad Marchand and Johnny Boychuk as possible trade candidates.

  • Haggerty: Players such as Brad Marchand ($4.5 million cap hit) and/or Johnny Boychuk ($3.66 million cap hit) could be moved, based on a combination of salary cap hardship for Boston, and considerably high value on the trade market.

The Oilers have plenty of cap room, and could certainly use both players in their lineup this fall. Let’s look at Johnny Boychuk as a possible target.

BOYCHUK ‘EXTRA SKATER’ PLAYER CARDboychuk postseason es

He enjoyed a nice season in 2013-14, and of course has been around for the Bruins successful run that includes a Stanley and a finals appearance in the last several seasons. Boychuk might be an attractive option for Edmonton in a mentor role , a role he filled with Matt Bartkowski this past season. He might be able to do a similar thing with one of Martincin or Klefbom in the coming season. A top 4D of Marincin-Petry, Klefbom-Boychuk should be considered a significant upgrade on the current depth chart.

One area Boychuk was not effective? In a Ference-Boychuk pairing, which didn’t click over a several season period and shouldn’t be pursued by Edmonton based on evidence.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

boychuk vollman

The sledgehammer gives us a nice view of the player: second pairing competition, a nice blue bubble for Boychuk and his tag-a-long Bartkowski. I don’t know that you could ask for much more in a second-pairing defenseman. Is Boychuk a ‘perfect fit’ option for the Oilers? I’d say he is pretty damn close to it, and offers some of that team toughness the club seems hellbent for leather to add these days:

THE HOCKEY NEWS BIO

hn boychuk

HARD COST OF DOING BUSINESS

What would the Bruins want for Boychuk? Well, based on the Haggerty article the club needs significant cap relief:

  • Haggerty: The Bruins have roughly $9 million to sign Reilly Smith, Torey Krug, Matt Bartkowski, Shawn Thornton, Jarome Iginla – or a suitable replacement right wing for the B’s top line with David Krejci and Milan Lucic — and a backup goaltender. That isn’t nearly enough cap space for more than 25 percent of the NHL roster.

The Oilers would need to trade Boston a player of some ability making significantly less money than Boychuk. The obvious asks? Martin Marincin and Oscar Klefbom. It is to laugh, sad but true. Marc Savard’s NTC has now expired, so the Oilers could take on that contract (although it’s worth noting the Bruins can get cap relief without trading the contract); they could also acquire a disappointing and very well paid Loui Eriksson in a bigger deal, perhaps for someone like David Perron.

It’s probably not a fit, which is too bad because the Oilers could use a Johnny Boychuk. Acquire him one season from free agency, sign him to a multi-year deal, and the RH side blue is Boychuk-Petry-Schultz for several years. Boychuk could mentor Marincin, Klefbom and Nurse through those early seasons.

The Bruins might also ask after Petry, but I don’t see the value there for Edmonton. Also, there’s every chance Petry will have a richer contract than Boychuk by summer’s end, leaving the Bruins in a bigger cap hell. One deal that would be interesting, but is a wash dollar wise? Petry and Perron (est. $8M) for Boychuk and Marchand (close to $8M).

I don’t see a match, unless there’s a third team involved in the transaction. I do believe Boston is worth keeping an eye on, they have been sending away talent for less than 100 cents on the dollar in the recent past, and could do it again.

LOWDOWN

  • Lyle Richardson, Spector’s Trade Rumors, the Hockey News and Bleacher Report.
  • David Burstyn, Director of Amateur scouting for McKeens.
  • Travis Yost, Hockeybuzz.
  • Guy Flaming, The Pipeline Show.

Trades, draft, cap, NHL finals. @Lowetide_ or 10-1260 via text. Questions welcome!

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82 Responses to "HARD TARGET SEARCH: THE BRUINS"

  1. bsmart says:

    I would not want to make a lateral move. I think a prospect with promise and a draft pick should do it. Especially since they are pressed for cap sapce. I would offer gernat and a 3rd round pick. If not I would stand firm.

  2. nycoil says:

    Good morning LT,
    Here’s an article from mid-May from the same reporter/source where he has Chiarelli quotes about Marchand that sound a bit like he is ready to move on. I posted it then, but it got lost in the shuffle, I think.
    From Haggerty’s May 18th article:

    “Every year I seem to have this comment about him finding a balance between being an irritant/agitator and a real good player. I think sometimes his antics get in the way. This has been a discussion I’ve had, we’ve had, Claude’s [Julien] has had over the course of three, four, five years,” said Chiarelli. “It’s a challenge for Brad [Marchand] to play that aggressive way, and not to cross the line. You’ve heard this from me a lot. If those were reputation calls I’d be disappointed, but sometimes that’s the reality.

    “We both had productive [exit] meetings with Brad [Brad Marchand]. He scored 25 goals and he thought he had a bad year. That’s where he puts his expectations and we talked about that other stuff, and we had productive conversation. I don’t know what it is, but we have to dial back some of that [extracurricular] stuff, and that includes Marchy [Brad Marchand].”

    Acquiring him to play the opposite wing from Perron would at least drive our opposition insane, but I do fear the two of them egging each other on and turning their line into a bit of a Larry, Curly show…Slide Perron to C and add Yak on that line would make him Moe!

    P.S. I tried to post a link to the source article from Comcast, but it gets deleted. Sorry if it is a source we aren’t supposed to link to.

  3. Jordan says:

    There are other options.

    The Oilers could offer up one of their cheap middle six forwards and their third from this years’ draft.

    D:

  4. spoiler says:

    A second pairing Dman should be more valuable and less available than a second line winger. I think if the Bruins move either, it’s Marchand that goes. However Boychuk does have an expiring contract next year.

    I think they would prefer to trade Ericksson over Marchand, except he can play the right side for them, where they have virtually nobody.

    Iginla will sign a similar contract to last year. Krug and Bartkowski won’t get big raises. Thornton won’t be resigned. Trade McQuaid…

    I think they will be mostly fine. The tough part for them is making it through the summer until they can re-LTIR Savard. They will probably hold off on Iginla signing and maybe a re-up till they get to that point.

    But things are certainly starting to look thinner on the Boston roster and they are going to find it tougher to compete without either a big jump in the cap ceiling or a couple of sweet value contracts.

  5. nycoil says:

    Boychuk also has a 15-team trade list on his partial NMC.

  6. bsmart says:

    nycoil,

    Although he is from Edmonton, and lives here in the off season. I doubt we are on his no trade list.

  7. Racki says:

    What about shipping Ference back with retained salary? Unlike several people, I like Ference though and see him as good on the bottom pairing based mostly on his leadership. But I know that is likely less popular opinion.

    Other than that, Fedun plus a player or discount? I have no name in mind though as the only guy actively shopped is Gagner. Maybe they could retain salary.. Possibly take another player back.. I dunno.

    I do think Boychuk would come here though.

  8. nycoil says:

    bsmart,

    He probably would come here. He seems to like playing in hockey markets looking at his comments when he signed his deal with Boston. I was just pointing it out; however, I am not sure if he has already submitted the list or if he would be asked to in the future.

    He probably fetches $5M+ for 5 years or more on his next contract. Would we be comfortable paying for his 31-37 year seasons at that much? He’s a nice player, but I’d rather keep Marincin and/or Klefbom, thank you.

  9. spoiler says:

    spoiler: Iginla will sign a similar contract to last year. Krug and Bartkowski won’t get big raises. Thornton won’t be resigned. Trade McQuaid…
    I think they will be mostly fine. The tough part for them is making it through the summer until they can re-LTIR Savard. They will probably hold off on Iginla signing and maybe a re-up till they get to that point.

    Just worked this out on Capgeek’s wonderful Armchair tool. Doubled base on Bartkowski and Krug, gave backup goalie same money, traded McQuaid and with Savard on the LTIR, that gives them $3M in cap space without trading either Marchand or Boychuk. They could give Bartkowski more money, if needed, then.

    Given that, I think they only trade Marchand for philosophical reasons, while his value is high.

  10. malinpaul says:

    nice article.

    I’m not crazy about using assets to acquire guys that are older than 28 because our D is currently set to peak in 4-5 years. Ideally we can use Katz’ money to buy a guy like Boyle to function as a short term mentor (Katz should feel obliged to spend a little extra given the poor results). Assets should be used to acquire the pieces that will come together in 4-5 years.

    Judging from LA we will need A LOT of them.

  11. Jon K says:

    What about a larger trade that might be the big splash MacT has been hoping for? Something along the lines of :

    Gagner with 2.0 mill cap hit retained
    Klefbom/ Marincin/Nurse
    Pitlick

    for

    Marchand
    Boychuk

    It’s a big deal and one that doesn’t occur very often. I suspect Oilers’ fans would think the Oilers are getting robbed and Boston fans would think they are getting a pile of junk and one good prospect for two core players in the Cup win. The net cap savings for Boston would be about $3.57 mill per year.

  12. Germoil says:

    Jon K,

    no

  13. fuzzy muppet says:

    LT

    Amazing line up. Was wondering if you could ask David and/or Guy how much a player’s birthdate factors in their ranking of the prospects?

  14. Woodguy says:

    BOS is in more trouble than it looks like as they also have a $4.5MM cap penalty for going over the cap this year with bonuses.

    http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2014/04/06/report-iginla-bonuses-will-cost-bruins-next-season/

    Boston Bruins are expected to have a cap penalty of around $4.5 million in 2014-15 due to Iginla, Dougie Hamilton, and Torey Krug‘s bonuses, according to the Boston Globe.

    Lucic is a bit of a drag on the cap as well at $6MM

    I can see them selling both Boychuck and Marchand for futures.

    FLA is in the mode of buying now for futures.

    OIlers should be too to some extent.

    As good as Boychuck is, 1 year of Boychuck isn’t worth much A 2nd rounder or “B” grade prospect at most.

    Its the 3 years of Marchand that have value. Unfortunately for BOS Marchand’s value has not been this low since he was an unknown. Had a terrible year and playoff.

    He’s probably worth a 1st rounder or “A’” grade prospect.

    So if I’m Chiarelli I trade both to EDM for one of Marincin/Klef/Nurse (Marchand payment)+ a 2015 2nd.(Boychuck payment)

    This assume he doesn’t want any warm body outside a ELC back.

    I don’t do that deal if I’m the Oilers. I don’t like Marchand enough.

  15. wrosychuk says:

    I’m tired of this 4-5 year trend that we continually discuss – Johnny Boychuk would be an incredible addition to the roster, IF we were lucky enough to have him. While 30, he is in his prime, and as a defenseman, his prime is another 6-7 years. He would immediately be a top pairing defenseman in our system. Since Boston has 8 NHL-ready defensemen, I wonder whether they would be interested in Nail Yakupov as a return…

  16. Loweblow says:

    Brad Marchand has a modified NTC highly doubtful he’ll wave it to come to Edmonton. Marchand may play big, but he has the protection in Boston, will not have that luxury in Edmonton. Besides the Oilers need to get bigger, not smaller.
    Johnny Boychuk is tempting, but what’s the rush. Just have to wait until next season. Not sure if I would want him, just because he’s a Edmonton boy is not a very good reason. Will he resign not sure, but I would have a new contract agreed to if they make the trade.

    Glad this is just a rumor.

  17. Hammers says:

    Anything that gives up Nurse /Klefbom or Marincin is a no go . Would they do Gags ,Hendricks , Gernat next years 2nd for both of them . If you have to retain say a $1 mill of Gags deal that would be OK . Gives them 2 players for NHL , 1 For AHL with a promising future and a pick .

  18. Woodguy says:

    wrosychuk,

    While 30, he is in his prime, and as a defenseman, his prime is another 6-7 years

    That’s incorrect.

    Physical Dmen tend to fall off a cliff at about 31 years old, same as physical forwards.

  19. Caramel Obvious says:

    wrosychuk:
    I’m tired of this 4-5 year trend that we continually discuss – Johnny Boychuk would be an incredible addition to the roster, IF we were lucky enough to have him. While 30, he is in his prime, and as a defenseman, his prime is another 6-7 years. He would immediately be a top pairing defenseman in our system. Since Boston has 8 NHL-ready defensemen, I wonder whether they would be interested in Nail Yakupov as a return…

    Is this satire?

    In any case, Woodguy has Boychuk’s value pegged correctly. I trade a second round pick and a later pick or a prospect like Musil with limited upside. That’s what he’s worth. Anything more than that is a ridiculous overpay.

    Two rules to trading in the offseason.

    1) You trade for the contract not the player. You don’t get the player forever so don’t trade for them as if you are.

    2) You trade for the contract not the player. Teams in salary cap crunches never get full value. Never. So don’t pay full value. Ever. See, Perron, David.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Also,

    Here’s a reminder of why we follow the Corgi’s and want the Oiler Corgi’s to grow up and run wild:

    https://twitter.com/AGretz/status/476196364377133056/photo/1

    Best Regular Season FenClose teams since 07/08

    DET 59.6% 07/08 – Won Stanley Cup
    CHI 58.1% 09/10 – Won Stanley Cup
    DET 57.6% 02/09 – Lost n Stanley Cup Final
    LAK 57.3% 12/13 – Lost in Western Conference Final
    LAK 56.7% 13/14 – 3-0 Lead in Stanley Cup Final
    SJS 56.4% 07/08 – Lost in 2nd round (wtf SJS?)
    CHI 56.1% 12/13 – Won Stanley Cup Final

    So the next time someone asks you why you pay attention to this stuff, its because it predicts who is the best teams in the NHL better than anything else, including goals and wins.

  21. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Boston Bruins are expected to have a cap penalty of around $4.5 million in 2014-15 due to Iginla, Dougie Hamilton, and Torey Krug‘s bonuses, according to the Boston Globe.

    Then they are going to need to trade one of their bigger salaries. They have no choice.

    If we are talking about who is in the Bruin’s core, I don’t think either Boychuk or Marchand gets in. Either or both will go. I’m with you though, I don’t really like either enough to give something up for them.

  22. Hammers says:

    Just wondering why so many tend to think of letting Musil go before Gernat . Both may make the NHL but Musil for me will make it as a stay at home bottom pairing player with chance of moving up . As for Boychuk he can help bridge the gap 1 more year for Nurse and we would get full value at the trade deadline if he won’t sign. He will still be playing 3-4 years from now .

  23. Hammers says:

    spoiler: Then they are going to need to trade one of their bigger salaries. They have no choice.If we are talking about who is in the Bruin’s core, I don’t think either Boychuk or Marchand gets in. Either or both will go. I’m with you though, I don’t really like either enough to give something up for them.

    Maybe Lucic or they don’t sign Iginla .

  24. commonfan14 says:

    Hammers: If you have to retain say a $1 mill of Gags deal that would be OK .

    Anyone know if there’s an actual rule against a team trading a player to someone for a 7th rounder, then them trading him back to the original team the next day for their 7th and a 2nd while they retain half his salary?

  25. slopitch says:

    I agree with Woodguy. Boychuk has one year left and the Bruins need to clear salary. I think Simpson (or Musil) and a pick would be fine. He is 30 but is a good stop gap to allow Nurse, Simpson, Klefbom and Marincin to develop. I also like the odds of the Oilers resigning him at a cheaper salary if he lives here already in the offseason.

    Marchand would cost more but Id still inquire. We need more piss and vinegar and hes a nice blue bubble. That being said he is getting an OZ push which we may need to save for Yak. Id still inquire.

    I don’t see a need to move Petry, Klefbom or Marincin.

    Unless the Oilers can get a better 2C, I think the Oilers should keep Gagner. His value is at an all-time low and while he doesn’t currently cover the cap bet, I think with his improved play as well as the cap going up, I think his trade value would increase.

    I’ve heard people talking about using Draisatl like Monahan next year. Id rather see him get another year in junior though. There is no need to rush. Common people!

    Also, what do you guys think it would take to acquire a 2C with Nurse as the center piece? Say with Colorado for ROR.

  26. slopitch says:

    Cont’d… I think Colorado could make a good argument that selling ROR and signing Stastny is the best long term strategy. They need D. ROR would be a great 2C option for the Oilers. Age 23 is wheelhouse for the Oilers cluster.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    For the curious.

    Followed up on a Speeds suggestion here:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/a-deeper-look-chl-ipp/

  28. spoiler says:

    Hammers: Maybe Lucic or they don’t sign Iginla .

    Well, they don’t have much on the right side, especially at that level. And with the bonus-laden deal, they can subsidize it somewhat against next year’s cap. Iggy they will sign.

  29. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    What is boychuck’s corsi inside 25 ft and corsi outside 25 ft?

  30. Woodguy says:

    commonfan14: Anyone know if there’s an actual rule against a team trading a player to someone for a 7th rounder, then them trading him back to the original team the next day for their 7th and a 2nd while they retain half his salary?

    As per CBA 50.5 (C)(iii) you cannot re-acquire a player you traded with retained salary for one calendar year.

  31. TheOtherJohn says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Haven’t read colunmn yet….who’s Speeds offer sheeting now?

  32. Rondo says:

    Chris Kreider looks like the next Lucic

  33. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Physical Dmen tend to fall off a cliff at about 31 years old, same as physical forwards.

    In other news, Matt Greene turned 31 last month.

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    If I’m Boston I offer Lucic to Oilers for every draft pick for the next 5 years, just to see if they’ll bite. Given the # of picks Oilers have already burned trying to draft The Next Lucic, it might even prove cost effective. /~

  35. Lowetide says:

    Greene and Boychuk aren’t really similar as players, agreed?

  36. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide:
    Greene and Boychuk aren’t really similar as players, agreed?

    Somewhat but not that much. I wasn’t attempting to draw that connection there, just that Greene is a guy constantly rumoured to be on the radar. Woodguy’s “best before” date and my eye are in good agreement here, and I’m a bigger Matt Greene fan than many.

  37. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    Woodguy:
    What is boychuck’s corsi inside 25 ft and corsi outside 25 ft?

    I’m not telling you until you tell me how he affect goalies SV%.

    Haha!

  38. slopitch says:

    Boychuk is 30 and is only signed for 1 year. Hes a good stop gap unlike Green who would require term and money.

  39. Racki says:

    I’d buy that the average brushing blueliner drops off after 31, but there will always be exceptions. The key is probably to look at their last year or two and see if the signs are there. The arrows are still pointing up with Boychuk aren’t they? Time on ice still loads, corsi rel in the blue.. Playing tough comp and not getting a big bias of starts in o zone.

    I wouldn’t expect him to kick ass for the next 5 years, but it isn’t a stretch at all to think the Oilers get at least two good years out of him (if Re signed) while prospects develop

  40. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Racki:
    I’d buy that the average brushing blueliner drops off after 31, but there will always be exceptions. The key is probably to look at their last year or two and see if the signs are there. The arrows are still pointing up with Boychuk aren’t they? Time on ice still loads, corsi rel in the blue.. Playing tough comp and not getting a big bias of starts in o zone.

    I wouldn’t expect him to kick ass for the next 5 years, but it isn’t a stretch at all to think the Oilers get at least two good years out of him (if Re signed) while prospects develop

    It’s two questions: when does a player start dropping off, & from how high a peak is he dropping? A guy well above entry-level capability can drop off for a few years and still be effective, even as it’s diminishing returns.

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    Oilers mgmt talk a good game about embracing the DET model and having patience with their prospects, but I don’t think they’ll ever fully excise their wont to throw kids into the deep end.

    They’re so firmly entrenched in their ‘Boys on the Bus’ nostalgia that they’ve seemingly overlooked the fact that you can build the same culture by marinating the prospects together in the A.

    Did J Schultz sign here cos he was promised a fast track to the show? If yes, that culture of gifting roster spots has to end. If no, why does this club not consider the value of sending him back to the A to properly learn his trade?

    Running next season with all of Marincin, Klefbom and Schultz in the lineup (and possibly Nurse and/or Ekblad) is basically admitting to your fans that you’re using your parent club as a development tool and wins don’t matter. That said, I do believe MacT will overpay for two vet D cos how can this team look at its season ticket base with a straight face otherwise and claim they’re trying to compete for a playoff spot?

    If I’m Petry, I’m holding out for the big money on the basis of the post traumatic stress incurred if nothing else.

  42. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It’s two questions: when does a player start dropping off, & from how high a peak is he dropping? A guy well above entry-level capability can drop off for a few years and still be effective, even as it’s diminishing returns.

    Know of anyone that’s done aging curves for hockey players, as they’ve done (or tried to do) in baseball?

    If not, maybe I’ll add that to my number crunching project list…

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I don’t see the value in spending assets on Boychuk.

    I mostly don’t see wandering out of that trade without losing.

    The Oilers love narratives. And Boston (as good a damn team as it is) is steeped in stupid narratives about character and toughness. I don’t want to pay for that. We already paid for Ference (not in trade mind you). And, somehow seem to think that steep overpayment was well worth it, or wasn’t an overpayment at all.

    The Oilers appear to have no bullshit meter when it comes to talent evaluation whenever narratives enter the scene.

    ———–

    Leaving all that aside, I simply don’t like the player that much.

    If MacT decides to open himself up to “middle tier” D, I think there are better options than Boychuk. And, I think they are options that are easier to attain.

    I’d seriously hope MacT does open up his POV and starts looking at Kulikov, Stralman, Fayne and others.

  44. nycoil says:

    I think:
    1) If the asset going the other way on a Boychuk trade is commensurate to a one-year stopgap (3rd round pick and B-level prospect), fine. But there are going to be too many teams interested for the price not to go up.
    2) If the assets going the other way are going to cost more because of 1), then the Oilers need to re-sign him beyond next season. Oilers are not in a position to burn anything on a one-year rental.
    3) It was consensus that Boychuk took less money to fit the Bruins’ needs last time around than he would have received on the open market. Chiarelli even said so at the time. So this contract is going to be in the $5m+ range with the likes of Dennis Wideman getting paid more. It may even take $6m on the open market.
    4) If hometown boy Andrew Ference required a 4th year to sign at his age, Boychuk will require at least that much, likely more.
    5) So let’s say it takes 5yrs x $5.5M, which is being nice to the Oilers. One year from now Boychuk will already be 31 and has been on a physical pairing with Chara the last while and now will have been dealing with the giants in the west like LA. Do you want to pay Boychuk $27.5M for his age 31-36 seasons? Do you want to give up a prime asset in addition to that contract in order to make it happen?

    Heck no.
    Boychuk does not fit the Oilers’ window. I’d rather go get a defender still in their prime, whose salary is about to rise, and thus could be obtained for less than full asset value. An example of this would be Letang. Now yes, he specifically has injury issues. But he is 27 and can play all situations for at least 5 more years. A player like that only comes available because of salary issues and injury history. The stroke isn’t a worry but concussion history is. Without those warts Letang wouldn’t even be available. Should the Oilers step up? I am not sure. But the only scenario where I consider giving up a blue chip asset is for an in-his-prime, top pair D or 2C

  45. j says:

    Here’s the real question on a slow day in June If a Boychuk could chuck wood, how much wood would a Boychuk chuck if a Boychuk could chuck wood?

  46. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    nycoil,

    Well, what if it is a second rounder to acquire and then a second rounder back at the deadline?

    That gives you time to assess his present level of ability, decide on what you want to offer on an extension, make the offer and have Boychuk consider it.

    As for Boychuk’s age, it is a concern when considering an extension, but is the drop off a matter of age or mileage? Boychuk has 5 full NHL seasons, well 4 and a half if we consider the lockout. 320 NHL games over that span… A lot of kids are well past that mark by 24.

    If you can have a free audition, while getting better defense and puck-moving than a Fraser, and taking some own zone pain away from Schultz, I think you have to do it. The only questions are would Boston find a better deal elsewhere than our 2015 2nd, and is he willing to come here? I could see a few teams interested in renting him. He almost seems like the perfect guy that a Detroit would pick up for cheap.

    I’m starting to come around on this.

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    If the Oilers really want a player like Boychuk, maybe they should look at how he was developed?

    5 seasons in the WHL
    4 season in the AHL

    By contrast, J Schultz – 34GP in the A, cos there was a lockout….

    If we’re talking about Boston ‘narratives’ that’s one to consider. They actually develop their players, which is why other teams want them.

  48. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Well, what if it is a second rounder to acquire and then a second rounder back at the deadline?

    If It’s a second rounder and he’s thoroughly assessed before being handed a long term, money-filled deal with clauses and he’s potentially flipped for another 2nd… fine.

    I don’t see how that scenario would get much argument.

    That’s simply what WG is suggesting his cost SHOULD be, if I’ve read this thread right.

    I’m worried his cost will be well north of there, and he will be re-signed regardless of performance for a long term deal with clauses and a ripe cap hit.

  49. Andy P says:

    None of all this is worth a hill of beans if they don’t fix the coaching on the NHL team from top to bottom.

  50. wrosychuk says:

    Woodguy,

    This is what is wrong with the current Oiler fanbase – you present a reasonable option to significantly improve the hockey team and its dismissed as an under-value due to the terms of the current contract or some non-sense. Completely discrediting that a contract extension could be a condition of the trade or even negotiated prior to the trade in a “sign-and-trade” type scenario.

    There isn’t one defender on the Oilers that compares (besides contract term) to Boychuk’s past season or career, YET we would suggest trading a ‘C’ prospect (valued by Oiler fans as a ‘B’) and a high 2nd round pick for a top pairing defender… when we were about to spend a high 1st round pick at the possibility of someday developing a top pairing defender 4-5 years from now (Aaron Ekblad).

    Let’s not mistake something, there isn’t one Norris trophy candidate hovering the blue-line right now, and we’re talking about bringing in a guy that played with one more than any other player in his career – we can’t develop that type of experience, and yes, we will have to pay a premium for it.

  51. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: I’m not telling you until you tell me how he affect goalies SV%.

    Haha!

    Sadly i Can only use the generalist Distance measure. The more accurate 7 hiole Elevation review requires the knowledge of Shooter tendancies like a pitichers strike zone..

    I apologize.

    Though I would love to see Corsi success rate by x-y location..

    Though most of you believe it will be equal.

    i think it is important to answer the big Question.

    Are all Corsi equal?

  52. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bag of Pucks: If we’re talking about Boston ‘narratives’ that’s one to consider. They actually develop their players, which is why other teams want them.

    All except for the part where Boston didn’t draft or develop Boychuk, excepting his last year in the AHL.

  53. Gerta Rauss says:

    If I’m reading capgeek correctly, Boychuk’s NTC expired May 31, so BOS is free to move him without the player’s consent.

    At any rate, Klef or Marincin is a non starter for me. As much as I think a Boychuk type is exactly what is needed, I’m not moving either of them for 1 year of Boychuk.

    Gernat and a pick..?…sure.

  54. rickithebear says:

    Brad Marchand?

    EVG/gm last 3 years
    #21 Eberle 57EVG 206gm .277 EVG/gm
    #32 B. Marchand 53 EVG 203 gm .261 EVG/gm
    #37 Hall 46 EVG 181gm .254 EVG/gm
    #52 Perron 42 EVG 183 gm .230 EVG/gm
    # 99 Healthy RNH 28 EVG 142gm .197 EVG /gm
    # 126 Healthy Gagner 22 EVg 123 GM .179 EVG/gm
    #164 Yak 18 EVG 111gm .162 EVG/gm

    People do not want a top 30 even goal scoring forward.

  55. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Good article making the case for Reinhart by That’s Offside!

    I haven’t read the article yet, but I wanted to say…

    I have had Ekblad at number 1 all year. Till yesterday. I know now that Reinhart will be in the top spot on my list from now till draft day. I was reading Desjardins’ stuff and looking into patterns of draft beauts and busts and one particular point of Gabe’s and one particular factor among CHL prospect forwards really stood out. D-1 scoring. It wasn’t infallible in predicting success and failure, there were occasional exceptions, but it was right a heckuva lot more than it was wrong. It was Gabe’s stuff about the effect of age that made me look into it more closely. I reviewed the draft going back to 07 through most the rounds and notables beauts and busts drafted prior to that. I looked hardest into areas of the drafts where their were clusters of beauts and busts. I also looked at the level of NHL player that 17 year old production correlated to.

    Reinhart had a great 17 year old season. Reinhart had a better quality 17 year old season than did the Nuge, even giving Nuge a bit of a push for his birthday. Typically when this happens you get a better player when they get to the NHL. His D-1 season was in between the Nuge and Hall, right about at Galchenyuk’s level. His 16 year old season was a hair shy of Nuge’s 17 year old season! That’s demonstrating a certain level of ability against older players at a very young age. As Gabe pointed out long ago, this is very important.

    Now this isn’t to knock 18 year old scoring. One thing you want to see is improvement and trajectory. In fact, it looks like any sort of drop from 17 to 18 is a strong predictor of bust. Angelo Esposito is a famous example of this.

    If we believe in Gabe, it is far more likely that Reinhart will be out-scoring Bennett at 21-22 yrs old than the other way around. Bennett gets a boost for his birthday, but nowhere near enough to be in the same ballpark. It is more likely that Reinhart will be out-scoring the Nuge too at comparable ages.

    Reinhart is my new #1, and I am now rating him as a likely 1st line player with possible all-star potential at his top end..

    By this test, Draisaitl, by the way, comes in slightly behind Nuge in future production, which sounds about right to me. This draft is looking a little better to my eyes. I may rank him #2, haven’t decided yet.

  56. OilClog says:

    Is there any way this trade Perron talk can be shot in the head and never mentioned again..

    If I’m trading Perron I want Malkin as the return or I’m not frwakjng trading David Perron! He eats Marchands lunch, dinner, and ice cream cake.

    Stop trading David Perron! Good Gord.

  57. Jon K says:

    Craig Ramsay hired as assistant coach, Buchberger moved to another role in organization as per Stauffer.

  58. slopitch says:

    Craig Ramsay to replace Bucky as assistant coach.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: I haven’t read the article yet, but I wanted to say…

    I have had Ekblad at number 1 all year. Till yesterday. I know now that Reinhart will be in the top spot on my list from now till draft day.I was reading Desjardins’ stuff and looking into patterns of draft beauts and busts and one particular point of Gabe’s and one particular factor among CHL prospect forwards really stood out. D-1 scoring. It wasn’t infallible in predicting success and failure, there were occasional exceptions, but it was right a heckuva lot more than it was wrong.It was Gabe’s stuff about the effect of age that made me look into it more closely.I reviewed the draft going back to 07 through most the rounds and notables beauts and busts drafted prior to that. I looked hardest into areas of the drafts where their were clusters of beauts and busts.I also looked at the level of NHL player that 17 year old production correlated to.

    Reinhart had a great 17 year old season. Reinhart had a better quality 17 year old season than did the Nuge, even giving Nuge a bit of a push for his birthday. Typically when this happens you get a better player when they get to the NHL.His D-1 season was in between the Nuge and Hall, right about at Galchenyuk’s level.His 16 year old season was a hair shy of Nuge’s 17 year old season!That’s demonstrating a certain level of ability against older players at a very young age.As Gabe pointed out long ago, this is very important.

    Now this isn’t to knock 18 year old scoring. One thing you want to see is improvement and trajectory. In fact, it looks like any sort of drop from 17 to 18 is a strong predictor of bust. Angelo Esposito is a famous example of this.

    If we believe in Gabe, it is far more likely that Reinhart will be out-scoring Bennett at 21-22 yrs old than the other way around. Bennett gets a boost for his birthday, but nowhere near enough to be in the same ballpark.It is more likely that Reinhart will be out-scoring the Nuge too at comparable ages.

    Reinhart is my new #1, and I am now rating him as a likely 1st line player with possible all-star potential at his top end..

    By this test, Draisaitl, by the way, comes in slightly behind Nuge in future production, which sounds about right to me. This draft is looking a little better to my eyes. I may rank him #2, haven’t decided yet.

    This is quite interesting. thanks for posting your thoughts here as you work through them.

    Are you planning on posting another ranking here or elsewhere this year? I’d love to read it obviously.

    Can you post links to GD’s posts on D-1 point production and draft projection.

    The That’s Offside article focuses on PPG and does little else, except to try and account for league scoring levels.

    ———-
    Someone else around here recently was very concerned about Draisaitl’s D-1 year, especially considering his older age.

    I don’t know how much weight to give it, but I’d like to read GD’s evidence on the matter. Seems a valid avenue of inquiry to me.

  60. thejonrmcleod says:

    I predict lots of talk about Craig Ramsay in 3-2-1.

  61. Gerta Rauss says:

    Jon K:
    Craig Ramsey hired as assistant coach, Buchberger moved to another role in organization as per Stauffer.

    The Edmonton #Oilers have hired Craig Ramsay as an Assistant Coach; Kelly Buchberger transitions into new role in Player Personnel.
    ExpandReplyRetweetFavorite

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: All except for the part where Boston didn’t draft or develop Boychuk, excepting his last year in the AHL.

    Boston not drafting Boychuk means they don’t develop their players? Gotcha.

    Thank Gord you’re here to clear up all the potential misinformation. All the perks of site moderation without paying for it : )

  63. regwald says:

    Best news I have heard out of the Edmonton management team in ages. Welcome Craig Ramsay. Welcome !

    Can we buy you a drink or 12 ?

  64. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss: The Edmonton #Oilers have hired Craig Ramsay as an Assistant Coach; Kelly Buchberger transitions into new role in Player Personnel.
    ExpandReplyRetweetFavorite
    54m

    Good move.

    Any move away from Bucky was good imo.

    I like Craig Ramsay’s resume.too. Long and varied. Not a newb by any stretch.

    Hope he has a good power play.

  65. TheOtherJohn says:

    Unless mistaken Ramsay is a member of the Peterborough Petes mafia:A very very good defensive player.Accomplished assistant coach and a HUGE upgrade on Bucky who knows Kevin Lowe

  66. Woodguy says:

    Dreger is saying that Steve Smith is out too.

    Nothing from the org on that.

    Yet…..

  67. G Money says:

    Jon K:
    Craig Ramsay hired as assistant coach, Buchberger moved to another role in organization as per Stauffer.

    Sweet Gord Almighty! I thought you were punking us at first.

    Actual NHL coaching experience! A sign of actual progress?

  68. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy,

    Yeah, the Oilers have managed to do it again-nobody gets fired, everyone manages a soft landing. I like the change, the OIlers can’t move forward from this mess of a season without making changes at the coaching level.

    Now all we need it KLowe to announce he is resigning his position with the Oilers to move to Hockey Canada

  69. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy:
    Dreger is saying that Steve Smith is out too.

    Nothing from the org on that.

    Yet…..

    Wow,,,they’ve got the Ramsay piece up on the Oilers website as of a minute ago…

  70. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss: Wow,,,they’ve got the Ramsay piece up on the Oilers website as of a minute ago…

    No one else has Smith out…..Dreger might be off here.

  71. gogliano says:

    Lots of experience as an assistant and he didn’t seem out of place as a head coach by a very cursory look at the numbers (pretty similar results the couple years prior and years following his dismissal).

    Also a pretty distinguished player back in his day.

    Hard not to like this move.

  72. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    If the Oilers really want a player like Boychuk, maybe they should look at how he was developed?

    5 seasons in the WHL
    4 season in the AHL

    By contrast, J Schultz – 34GP in the A, cos there was a lockout….

    If we’re talking about Boston ‘narratives’ that’s one to consider. They actually develop their players, which is why other teams want them.

    ok… bag. ok.

  73. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis

    Not sure about the article to which you are referring, but I’m talking about the main one on projecting junior players, and league equivalencies. Here’s the link if you don’t have it.

    Part way down the article there are two sections on The Significance of Age and PPG Projections by Age.

    As you can see, there’s more range in the predictions, which is why you need confirmation from the 18 year old season. I suspect too that it is more accurate at the top of the draft. But going through the draft and looking at individual cases it is pretty impressive.

    It predicts Sean Monahan is a better player than thought. That Stamkos and Hall are pretty close in ability and scoring effectiveness, with Hall a shade behind. It predicts Mackinnon to be better than Drouin. It predicts Huberdeau to be better than Strome or Scheifele, but not as good as Landeskog (or say, RNH). Hall better than Seguin, both better than anyone else. Johansen quality but lower top end than Nuge. Skinner still quality especially with the age bump. Saad and Jenner better than Rattie and most anyone 10 spots ahead. Just as some examples.

    There are also some notable exceptions. Yak would be one if he doesn’t explode over the next two years, although we don’t have a complete 18 year old season. Duchene comes out really at the high end of what his points show, although the scouts picked up on it. Zach Hamill should have been better, but he is under-sized and average-speed a seemingly fatal combo at the NHL level. There were criticisms of his desire level too… maybe he didn’t have the work ethic to improve his skating enough.

    Bobby Mac’s list and NHLEs cluster the prospects for us. I am using this as a tool to refine the picks within those clusters. So Draft scoring (NHLE), Draft-1 scoring, both adjusted for birthdays, and the trajectory between the two scores.

  74. spoiler says:

    Wow, change you can believe in.

    If I’m Eakins, I’m probably not spending my summer cycling and swimming.

  75. Pouzar says:

    Holy Crap I was looking for an excuse to get loaded tonight!

    YEEEE HAAAAAAAAAW!!!!!!!

  76. Woodguy says:

    wrosychuk:
    Woodguy,

    This is what is wrong with the current Oiler fanbase – you present a reasonable option to significantly improve the hockey team and its dismissed as an under-value due to the terms of the current contract or some non-sense. Completely discrediting that a contract extension could be a condition of the trade or even negotiated prior to the trade in a “sign-and-trade” type scenario.

    There isn’t one defender on the Oilers that compares (besides contract term) to Boychuk’s past season or career, YET we would suggest trading a ‘C’ prospect (valued by Oiler fans as a ‘B’) and a high 2nd round pick for a top pairing defender… when we were about to spend a high 1st round pick at the possibility of someday developing a top pairing defender 4-5 years from now (Aaron Ekblad).

    Let’s not mistake something, there isn’t one Norris trophy candidate hovering the blue-line right now, and we’re talking about bringing in a guy that played with one more than any other player in his career – we can’t develop that type of experience, and yes, we will have to pay a premium for it.

    You are over estimating how long physical Dman are good.

    There are reams of information on this.

    Giving Boychuck a 5-6 year contract is not reasonable.

  77. G Money says:

    Woodguy: There are reams of information on this.

    Links?

    Want to do some research on this, and as noted above, might run another number crunching exercise if it hasn’t been done already.

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler,

    thanks.

    you didn’t link to anything, so I didn’t know what you were referring to.

    I’ve read this article a couple of times… but I’ve never crunched the numbers by age in that regard. If you manage to do it and put it in a spreadsheet or something, I’d love to see it.

  79. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: Know of anyone that’s done aging curves for hockey players, as they’ve done (or tried to do) in baseball?

    If not, maybe I’ll add that to my number crunching project list…

    Don’t recall having seen it. Re: baseball, in writing the above I was visualizing a Bill James graph of imaginary career curves of good & great players pegged against a base replacement level, & how the greater players not only had higher peaks but wider ones.

  80. Woodguy says:

    G Money: Links?

    Want to do some research on this, and as noted above, might run another number crunching exercise if it hasn’t been done already.

    https://www.google.ca/?gws_rd=ssl#q=age+hockey+players+decline

    Don’t mean to be a dick, but you’ll find a lot there.

    I don’t have links to everything I’ve read handy.

    Cursor glance tells me most of these are ok.

    This is Gabe’s first crack at it: http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/1/21/1261318/nhl-points-per-game-peak-age

  81. wrosychuk says:

    Woodguy,

    When was there a suggestion to give him a 5-6 year contract?

    Can you tell me one defenseman on the Oilers current roster that is in the same class as Boychuk?

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