KHAIRA’S TIME IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY

One of the two-way forwards in the Oilers system we really haven’t been able to have a good look at is Jujhar Khaira. I promise not to drive you crazy with this new toy, but there are some itches that need to be scratched here. Although we don’t have time on ice and qual comp/zone starts, anecdotal information tells us young Khaira played on a button down squad and was in fact used in a defensive role.

YEAR BY YEAR GOAL DIFFERENTIAL

  • 2013-14 Everett Silvertips GF-GA: 218-206 (+12)
  • 2013-14 Everett Silvertips EV GF-GA: 147-156 (-9)
  • What does that tell us? The Silvertips were an outstanding PP team, and that obscured their EV deficiencies.

KHAIRA EVEN-STRENGH PERFORMANCE

PPG NAME (LEAGUE) GP PTS ONGF ONGA DIF
.440 JUJHAR KHAIRA 59 26 41 36 +5

Interesting stuff here. This is a team that scored 2.04 EV goals a game and damn near one a game on the power play (67 PP goals in 72 games). For comparison, Leon Draisaitl’s PA Raiders—no screaming hell to be clear—scored the same number of power-play goals as Everett, but 2.34 EV goals per game. Khaira played on a very good defensive team—they were fifth in GA last season—but the EV offense was very low. Khaira’s offense may spike on a more gifted team, we know Constantine likes his button down style.

While I’m here, allow me to post Khaira’s WHL season by discipline.

EVEN STRENGTH

PPG NAME (LEAGUE) GP G A PTS
.806 CURTIS HAMILTON (10-11 WHL) 62 17 33 50
.800 GREG CHASE (13-14 WHL) 70 25 31 56
.732 TYLER PITLICK (10-11 WHL) 56 22 19 41
.615 MARCO ROY (13-14 QMJHL) 39 8 16 24
.440 JUJHAIR KHARA (13-14 WHL) 59 9 17 26

 

POWER PLAY

Age NAME (LEAGUE) GP G A PTS
.414 GREG CHASE (13-14 WHL) 70 10 19 29
.387 CURTIS HAMILTON (10-11 WHL) 62 6 18 24
.375 TYLER PITLICK (10-11 WHL) 56 5 16 21
.256 MARCO ROY (13-14 QMJHL) 39 5 5 10
.288 JUJHAR KHAIRA (13-14 WHL) 59 7 10 17

When we compare Khaira to Pitlick—a similar player with a strikingly similar history—things look fairly dire. The three items helping Khaira:

  • He is a center
  • It is unlikely he’ll endure the injury chain Pitlick went through
  • The power-play numbers aren’t that far apart.

Jujhar Khaira’s even-strength scoring clouds our view. The Katsaros document gives us a window into the player, and suggests he was an above-average Silvertip, including surprising sustain as an EV scorer (taken in context). He is not going to play his NHL time on a skill line, but may have more offense than the boxcars imply.

I’m more confident in Khaira as a prospect today.

(Khaira photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved)

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49 Responses to "KHAIRA’S TIME IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY"

  1. John Chambers says:

    Good story this kid, and god knows we can use a big,2-way centre.

    That said, I think Khaira earns a bit more publicity and push than he deserves because let’s face it – the offense just isn’t there … at least not to the point that should make anyone excited about what kind of pro he’ll likely end up as.

  2. Lowetide says:

    His NHLE in his college year was 82gp, 5-18-23. His NHLE this season was 82gp, 7-11-18. That’s a pretty big fall, but I was suspicious of Constantine because of his reputation. I don’t think he’s going to be a killer offensively, and yes Greg Chase is extremely likely to eat his lunch.

    Still, he’s in the game here.

  3. godot10 says:

    Khaira continued to play in OKC, even after all the arrivals from the OIlers big squad at the end of the season, which wasn’t true for Chase.

    He pushed Ewanyk to wing.

    Nelson had no reason to do this other than performance.

  4. steveb12344 says:

    Offence isn’t everything with this type of player. I think he will be an improvement on Lander at the NHL level, as a 4C with 3C potential.

    If he could become a J. Stall type for us that would be manna from heaven.

    Now before you guys go all half cocked on me, Stall, much like our own Samwise, in 8 years has never put up over 50 pts in the NHL.

    In JR JJ is 59gp 43p on a defence first team for a ppg of .729

    Stall in Peterborough put up 134gp 96p for a ppg of .716

    Now we all know that Stall is a gold-glove fielder, and that’s where a lot of his value comes from.

    JJ was older when he put up these numbers, so that has to be accounted for.

    I think if JJ can develop his defensive game to an elite level, he has a chance to become at least a good 4C for us.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Winquist’s ESG/GM were impressive, even for a 20 year old.

    I know he got in two games in OKC on a PTO.

    Anyone see him and have thoughts if he could keep up?

  6. supernova says:

    Khaira doesn’t have to be a top 6 forward. He just has to be effective as a 4th liner and then pushes for 3 rd line minutes.

    His Size, and seemingly high level of strength (seems all of the coaches I have heard interviewed about him say this) and if he can add a few elements, like face offs, strong defensive play and some scoring.

    If he can get that 15 to 25 points and be effective defensively and physically it is a very good pick.

  7. supernova says:

    Woodguy:
    Winquist’s ESG/GM were impressive, even for a 20 year old.

    I know he got in two games in OKC on a PTO.

    Anyone see him and have thoughts if he could keep up?

    Woodguy,

    Didn’t he also get sent to Bakersfield?

    Or was that Holmberg?

  8. eidy says:

    Just getting caught up on last thread. What a great new website. As long as they don’t try to outsmart themselves I think the oilers are in a great spot. All of these players look like solid prospects. Had a chance to see Draisaitl, so I am a bit biased. And Rom is very persuasive. The best thing I heard was his recount of watching world juniors the year before and him standing out. MPS was like that for me the year before his draft. I would still take him back.

    As for this years draft I hope for Draisatl at 3 and then hope for a few fallers- and some anti russian bias for Kamanev. After that it sounds like a weak draft and I wonder if more over agers will be taken like in 2012. There are 3 overage WHL players I have been following. Part of it is they were sleeper centres and the oilers are weak down the middle so I kept a watch on them this year and viewed them when I could in Regina. The first everyone who follows the oil kings know and is not under the radar after the memorial cup MVP. He shows well on the McKeen’s website. I have to admit a RedLine bias as well. love this report

    Kulda: 66 GP EV strength 23 24 and on ice 65 31, can skate and penalty kill

    Colby cave: Left centre. near point per game and evens 22 and 27. on ice evens were 79 and 59. Last year in Redline was 114 this year 85. Captain for the Broncos this year with “play away from the puck which is andvanced and mature”. Five days older than chase so could go to AHL, but suspect would return to Swift current for another year

    Parker Bowles: C last year redline 154 and this year 114. 39 games 40 points this year (even 7 and 15) on an atrocious tri city team for offence. Only 178 goals this year, roughtly half of what Portland got. despite that on ice 28 for and 26 against. 24 days younger than chase so has to go back to the WHL for one more year of seasoning so than his ELC would start at 20. Redline “so far below the radar he might as well be a UFO”

    Second years may not have the same ceiling, but it is like drafting college pitchers vs high school arms, a lot more likely to know what they project as. They are also one year closer to helping out and could be better bargains on their ELC. I am sure I am biased by viewings of the WHL, but also by the weakness up the middle. It is painful to watch defensive zone coverage as boys play against men and it would be nice to get players with speed, skill, and a little man strength. I also believe it is easier to convert from centre to wing than wing to centre.

    If the oilers walked away with Cave at 91 then Kulda in round 4 and Bowles in the 7th ala chase, that would be a fine day of work.

  9. Loweblow says:

    This is the problem with just looking at stats and making assumptions. Pitlick and Jujhar Khaira are 2 different players and cannot see how anyone that has seen them play say they are similar. Pitlick is the speedster, with skill, loves to hit and has a decent set of hands. Jujhar Khaira is a banger, loves to hit as well, but his bread and butter is in front of the net, looking for the deflection. Was set up twice by C.Hamilton with the Barons for wide open nets and missed both times. Had one good game with the Barons than he kinda disappeared for the rest. Liked what I saw, though, might turn into a decent 3/4 line C, too early to say.

  10. Barcs says:

    eidy,

    I too hope for a bit of Russian bias from the Oilers. It’s high risk/high reward as you can pick up better talents later on but at the risk of them leaving for the KHL.

    Pardon me if I’m wrong, but I thought Kulda was a LW?

    Would love if some of those guys fell through the cracks and we picked them up in the later rounds a la Chase. If we signed some of the overages to AHL deals that would be great too.

    Am really thrilled at MacT’s commitment to signing undrafted UFAs; great pool of resource.

    Bob Green has been fantastic in that role early on. You would have to think a promotion is coming his way soon.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Loweblow:
    This is the problem with just looking at stats and making assumptions. Pitlick and Jujhar Khaira are 2 different players and cannot see how anyone that has seen them play say they are similar. Pitlick is the speedster, with skill, loves to hit and has a decent set of hands. Jujhar Khaira is a banger, loves to hit as well, but his bread and butter is in front of the net, looking for the deflection. Was set up twice by C.Hamilton with the Barons for wide open nets and missed both times. Had one good game with the Barons than he kinda disappeared for the rest. Liked what I saw, though, might turn into a decent 3/4 line C, too early to say.

    They are in fact similar players. Each has a physical element and each is shy offensively. There are elements to their games that are not similar, such as speed, but for our purposes they are certainly comparable.

  12. justDOit says:

    I think someone around here just might get a kick out of this hockey movie from 1937, starring none other than Steve Smith – er, John Wayne, who at the time, was a bit of a prospect for hollywood.

  13. One-Timer says:

    steveb12344:
    Offence isn’t everything with this type of player.I think he will be an improvement on Lander at the NHL level, as a 4C with 3C potential.

    If he could become a J. Stall type for us that would be manna from heaven.

    Now before you guys go all half cocked on me, Stall, much like our own Samwise, in 8 years has never put up over 50 pts in the NHL.

    In JR JJ is 59gp 43p on a defence first team for a ppg of .729

    Stall in Peterborough put up 134gp 96p for a ppg of .716

    Now we all know that Stall is a gold-glove fielder, and that’s where a lot of his value comes from.

    JJ was older when he put up these numbers, so that has to be accounted for.

    I think if JJ can develop his defensive game to an elite level, he has a chance to become at least a good 4C for us.

    Jordan Staal is a 3rd line C in Pittsburgh, but not anywhere else. In 11/12 he scored 50pts in 62 games, which is a 0.8 clip, and that would be at least your 2C on most teams.

    His departure coincides perfectly with the Pens’ Fenwick crash, and they haven’t been able to make up for losing him.

    If Khaira becomes J Staal, Oiler fans will be enjoying playoff hockey as soon as the new barn opens.

  14. spoiler says:

    Khaira has always been a longshot. How he parlays that shot will depend on his desire, commitment, coachability and whether these attributes translate into improvements in his tools and overall game. I’m rooting for him because he brings such an absolute load to every puck battle, but we have to temper our cheering with the acknowledgement that he’s a bit of a project. Have to be patient with this kid.

  15. spoiler says:

    One-Timer: JJ was older when he put up these numbers, so that has to be accounted for.

    This is a massive factor. Gabe’s chart has disappeared, so I don’t have the numbers anymore, but I think you can expect to multiply Khaira’s numbers by at least .5 there to compare directly across. In other words, a serious difference in offensive ability.

  16. jp says:

    supernova: Woodguy,

    Didn’t he also get sent to Bakersfield?

    Or was that Holmberg?

    It was Holmberg. And he didn’t exactly rip it up in a small sample size:
    http://echl.com/stats/statdisplay.php?type=skaters&team_id=3&season_id=31&league_id=1&division_id=-1&confId=0
    Not sure those late season PTOs showed they deserved contracts, but it’s a great approach regardless.

    As for Khaira, the offense really is a big concern. It looks like he’s lagging behind both Lander and Pitlick, and it’s still very much in question whether they can bring enough to be useful. All three have some nice things though, and it will be great to see them get a chance next year. With a little progression that trio could make a real nice 4th line, even a decent 3rd line if everything breaks right.

  17. jp says:

    spoiler: This is a massive factor.Gabe’s chart has disappeared, so I don’t have the numbers anymore, but I think you can expect to multiply Khaira’s numbers by at least .5 there to compare directly across.In other words, a serious difference in offensive ability.

    Yeah, gotta agree here. There’s a huge difference between putting up 0.73 PPG at age 19 (Aug 13th birthday) and putting up 1.0 PPG at age 17 (Sept. 10th birthday). Not remotely comparable at all. I think their draft positions reflect that.

  18. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    carrying on our conversation from last night:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/ipp-and-the-2014-draft-class/

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Good read,

    What do you guys think about this.

    Would you take the Oilers picks

    130, 137, and 153

    And try and obtain a pick in the 2nd round.

    Likely somewhere between 35 and 55?

    A 3 for 1 but of a different sort

  19. One-Timer says:

    As LT’s prospect list suggests, both Yakimov and Chase have a better chance of topping out as a 3C (or better) than Khaira.

    Once we add Draisaitl to this list, the center depth starts to look encouraging.

    Still have to add a veteran 2C this year, somehow. Really the only chips are Gags and next year’s 1st… I’d be very worried about sending away any of the good D prospects.

    And this doesn’t even address the hole at 1D. It’s still a very, very delicate rebuild right now.

  20. One-Timer says:

    Obviously I’ve soured at the idea of ever getting anything worthwhile through FA.

  21. spoiler says:

    One-Timer: Once we add Draisaitl to this list, the center depth starts to look encouraging.

    Still have to add a veteran 2C this year, somehow. Really the only chips are Gags and next year’s 1st… I’d be very worried about sending away any of the good D prospects.

    And this doesn’t even address the hole at 1D. It’s still a very, very delicate rebuild right now.

    Absolutely. Such that I find it very very unlikely that the Oilers will be drafting 3rd overall. And we need to start coming to terms with this unlikelihood.

    While it is not a waste of energy for us to spend this much time researching the top end of this draft—because you can only trade the 3rd overall if there’s a trade there—I think drafting there is MacT’s worst case scenario.

    I think ideally the best he can hope for is the 3rd overall to TOR for Kadri + the 8th, but I doubt TOR does it. Oil would like this because it gives them a shot at Ritchie or Perlini, who I am betting they prefer to Nylander or Ehlers (sadly)

    I think the next best option is 3rd overall to PHI for Schenn + 17th. AT 17 you might get lucky and pick up a dropping Ehlers, or go for a Fiala or a Barbashev.

    However I’d bet the deal is as rumoured… the two Schenns for the 3rd overall. This isn’t exactly horrific for the Oil as they need a Dman on the right side better than Fraser, but it would be nice to have the pick and the cap space.

    If Philly puts that deal on the table, MacT can go to TOR and see if they want the 3rd more than Philly does, but I doubt it gets them Kadri. It’s more likely TOR would want to offload one of their poorer Dmen.

    If neither of these trades come to fruition, I think then and only then does MacT draft with the 3rd overall.

    But that’s how I would bet draft day goes down for the Oilers, exactly like this:

    3rd overall for the Schenns
    Gagner to CAR for their 2nd and 3rd

    (CAR wants to try E. Staal on wing beside Jordan and thus will be looking for a 2C)

  22. spoiler says:

    One-Timer: Obviously I’ve soured at the idea of ever getting anything worthwhile through FA.

    Well it sounds like COL wants to re-sign Stastny, but he’s holding off till June 20 to come to the negotiating table in the hopes of squeezing out more money. Grabo wants to re-sign in WAS he has said, but depends on the coach they hire… Trotz is known as a player’s coach so should be no problem there. Besides if WAS doesn’t re-sign Grabo, who do they go with, Olli Jokinen? They pretty much have to re-sign him because of the limited UFA options.

    Trade is MacT’s only solution and the 3rd overall is the only viable asset.

  23. steveb12344 says:

    One-Timer,

    I wasn’t so much saying JJ would be A J. Stall, so much as that type of player.

    I highly doubt JJ ever duplicates Stall’s offence in the NHL. If he could just bring some offence to the 3, or 4 line Center pos. with a J. Stall type Defensive game. It would really fill a hole for this team.

    With that said, I think L.T’s right that Chase, and even Moroz will have something to say about it.

  24. steveb12344 says:

    One-Timer: Jordan Staal is a 3rd line C in Pittsburgh, but not anywhere else.In 11/12 he scored 50pts in 62 games, which is a 0.8 clip, and that would be at least your 2C on most teams.

    11/12 was when Crosby went down with concussion. J. Stall was getting top minutes ev, and pp… with the big boys on the penguin’s high-powered offensive team.

    In Carolina J. Stall is in the prime of his career and is getting top 6 min and pp time. His totals there are 130 gp 71pts that is a .55 ppg clip.

    J. Stall is NOT a top 6 player on any kind of good team.

  25. teddyturnbuckle says:

    The odds are definitely against Khaira to make it to the NHL. I can’t remember when the Oilers had this little depth upfront on their farm team. Prospects need to really stand out at a lower level and I don’t see that with Pitlick or Khaira.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One thing about Khaira that does seem surprisingly like Pitlick is the “hockey talk” that surrounds him.

    When he was injured briefly during the season there was no word on what happened or how long he’d be out. I found out that Everett’s local paper had a full time beat reporter for the Tips.

    https://twitter.com/NickHPatterson

    He had a live message board going during the Tips game with some fans. I hopped on to ask about Khaira’s status (posted about it here http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/10/picture-this-vol-2.html)

    at any rate, in talking to them, they all seemed pretty damn impressed with Khaira (Betker too BTW, though to a much more limited degree).

    Neal Livingston (tend the farm) was also crazy impressed with Khaira when he landed in OKC. and we know from how much ice time and games he got, Nelson liked him a lot too.

    So… both pass the “seen him good as a hockey player” test. FWIW.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Winquist’s ESG/GM were impressive, even for a 20 year old.

    I know he got in two games in OKC on a PTO.

    Anyone see him and have thoughts if he could keep up?

    Winquist was elevated in favor of a few AHL regulars IIRC toward the end of the season. Nelson seemed to like him.

    AFAIK OKC have yet to sign him to a SPC for next season.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    eidy: And Rom is very persuasive.

    ha! that’s not a good sign for you!

    I’d be inclined to walk the other way, if I were you… take another look at the other 2 Cs.

  29. admiralmark says:

    Absolutely love this player. Saw him play 3 games against the Abby Heat and I thought he stood out in the game in a good way. Great forechek, very active all the time, a lot of weffort whenever he stepped on the ice. I know this might be lofty but I quite honestly see a lot of Kesler in his style of game. I believe he will make the Oilers in the next 2 years .

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jp: It was Holmberg. And he didn’t exactly rip it up in a small sample size:
    http://echl.com/stats/statdisplay.php?type=skaters&team_id=3&season_id=31&league_id=1&division_id=-1&confId=0
    Not sure those late season PTOs showed they deserved contracts, but it’s a great approach regardless.

    Holmberg got benched in favor of the coach’s tenured line-up. Hard to argue… these guys love the idea of dancing with the girl that got you there and rewarding play through the year.

    it became a minor point of contention for the team:

    http://www.bakersfieldcondors.com/mailbag/why-is-holmberg-sitting-in-the-stands/

    wrote about it here:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/05/said-oilers-prospect-update-3/

    He’s on an AHL SPC for next year. So, one imagines he’ll start the year in the ECHL with a fresh slate under the coach. I wouldn’t read too much into any of it.

    One thing on Holmberg… looked at his discipline splits last night. better ES scorer than I suspected:

    Evens: 72 33-28-61 (.847)

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    supernova: Romulus Apotheosis,

    Good read,

    What do you guys think about this.

    Would you take the Oilers picks

    130, 137, and 153

    And try and obtain a pick in the 2nd round.

    Likely somewhere between 35 and 55?

    A 3 for 1 but of a different sort

    thanks for reading!

    ———
    on your trade idea…

    last year the 37 got 57, 88 and 96 in return

    and the 57 got 83, 94 and 113 in return

    so… I think the package you’ve put together isn’t going to get you in the top 50.

    as far as the idea of packaging to trade up… it really depends on draft year and whether there is a player your scouts really want to target at a specific range or not… (sorry that’s a bit of squish of an answer).

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit:
    I think someone around here just might get a kick out of this hockey movie from 1937, starring none other than Steve Smith – er, John Wayne, who at the time, was a bit of a prospect for hollywood.

    that’s god damn fantastic!

    thank you so much. can’t believe I’ve never found this before.

  33. One-Timer says:

    steveb12344: 11/12 was when Crosby went down with concussion.J. Stall was getting top minutes ev, and pp… with the big boys on the penguin’s high-powered offensive team.

    In Carolina J. Stall is in the prime of his career and is getting top 6 min and pp time.His totals there are130 gp71ptsthat is a .55 ppg clip.

    J. Stall is NOT a top 6 player on any kind of good team.

    I may be overstating J Staal’s case, but you’re not giving him enough credit. A 3C who can slide up and score at 0.8 for 3/4 of a season is probably more than a 3C. And he’d been scoring 50pts a year mostly with 3rd line wingers before that.

    This is why he’s no longer a Pen, and why they keep crashing out after two rounds even with the world’s two best pivots.

  34. godot10 says:

    From EF’s latest 30 Thoughts:
    “27. It’s been reported before that Marian Gaborik was atop L.A.’s list of players it targeted prior to the trade deadline. A little more to the story: during the Olympic break, Kings coach Darryl Sutter took a crash course in Gaborik, watching a ton of video to make sure he would fit. Here’s one case where going to Sochi helped a team.”

    Dallas Eakins proudly proclaimed that he didn’t watch a second of Oiler tape last summer.

  35. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: thanks for reading!

    ———
    on your trade idea…

    last year the 37 got 57, 88 and 96 in return

    and the 57 got 83, 94 and 113 in return

    so… I think the package you’ve put together isn’t going to get you in the top 50.

    as far as the idea of packaging to trade up… it really depends on draft year and whether there is a player your scouts really want to target at a specific range or not… (sorry that’s a bit of squish of an answer).

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Last year we took many picks and this year the “experts” say it isn’t as deep as most years.

    The combination of the two makes me think this year is a good year to trade 3 for 1.

    We can avoid a cluster of 17 guys trying to work their way into the system (50 man list) as well as look for a better prospect rather than a cluster of picks.

    It also made sense last year to draft more players as it was a new GM and his first year, and they want their own guys.

  36. jp says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Holmberg got benched in favor of the coach’s tenured line-up. Hard to argue… these guys love the idea of dancing with the girl that got you there and rewarding play through the year.

    it became a minor point of contention for the team:

    http://www.bakersfieldcondors.com/mailbag/why-is-holmberg-sitting-in-the-stands/

    wrote about it here:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/05/said-oilers-prospect-update-3/

    He’s on an AHL SPC for next year. So, one imagines he’ll start the year in the ECHL with a fresh slate under the coach. I wouldn’t read too much into any of it.

    One thing on Holmberg… looked at his discipline splits last night. better ES scorer than I suspected:

    Evens: 72 33-28-61 (.847)

    Cool that he’ll be somewhere on the farm next year. I’d forgotten he was the WHL top scorer – definitely worth having in the system (or at least associated with it).

  37. supernova says:

    NHL draft value

    http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

    There are a few of these out there.

    But basically MacT did outstanding trade value last year.

    130,137, and 153 historically are really good value for say pick 45.

    Maybe he can do a different sort of trade this year.

    Compress the people that are in a cluster and gather picks in round 2.

    The more top 100 picks you get the better and obviously the more too 60 picks the better.

    Time to go for quality not quantity IMO

  38. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: that’s god damn fantastic!

    thank you so much. can’t believe I’ve never found this before.

    Well really, all the thanks should go to http://www.reddit/r/hockey. That certainly is a quaint little film, isn’t it? I haven’t watched all of it yet, but the scene where he’s introduced to the NY Panthers is vintage hollywood.

    I’m surprised The Duke could skate as well as he did.

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit: Well really, all the thanks should go to http://www.reddit/r/hockey. That certainly is a quaint little film, isn’t it? I haven’t watched all of it yet, but the scene where he’s introduced to the NY Panthers is vintage hollywood.

    I’m surprised The Duke could skate as well as he did.

    I like how they are all called “Hansen”

    Must be a joke repeated by Slap Shot.

  40. gogliano says:

    One thing about Khaira we need to keep in mind is that he was always something of a late bloomer and he hasn’t taken an easy path. Prospects never develop in a straight line as LT is fond of saying, but Khaira has a fair number of transitions in his early career. 2 years BCHL -> 1 year college -> 1 year WHL isn’t an easy transition, I wouldn’t think, especially the transition from college to the grind of major junior.

    I think we want to reserve judgment on him a little more than most. In terms of potential Pisanis–how much would that benefit this club right now–he is on my list.

  41. One-Timer says:

    supernova:
    NHL draft value

    http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

    There are a few of these out there.

    But basically MacT did outstanding trade value last year.

    130,137,and 153 historically are really good value for say pick 45.

    Maybe he can do a different sort of trade this year.

    Compress the people that are in a cluster and gather picks in round 2.

    The more top 100 picks you get the better and obviously the more too 60 picks the better.

    Time to go for quality not quantity IMO

    Weird that there’s an uptick in perceived value early in the 3rd round. Any theories on that?

    To me a “deep” or “shallow” draft only describes the upper echelon of the cluster. An entire 210-player sample should not vary drastically in quality from year to year. Therefore the idea of packaging up or down (other than, say, for a 1st round pick) should not be affected by how the draft is described.

    Trade up for quality or down for quantity. Deep or shallow will make no difference when you’re talking 3rd to 7th round.

  42. supernova says:

    One-Timer: Weird that there’s an uptick in perceived value early in the 3rd round.Any theories on that?

    To me a “deep” or “shallow” draft only describes the upper echelon of the cluster.An entire 210-player sample should not vary drastically in quality from year to year.Therefore the idea of packaging up or down (other than, say, for a 1st round pick) should not be affected by how the draft is described.

    Trade up for quality or down for quantity.Deep or shallow will make no difference when you’re talking 3rd to 7th round.

    One-Timer,

    Deep drafts can be different in many ways.

    For example it is put there that any one of the top 4 last year would almost assuredly by sure fire no. 1 this year. ( as well as in 2012)

    Which obviously creates depth at the start of first round.

    Another thing you can hear from scouts is

    It is a deep draft, no real difference between say picks 5 and 14 or 20. No high end players but lots of solid ones. (2012) was described like that plenty

    Again this could be a deep draft but lots of 10′s and Jacks not a lot of Aces and kings.

    Or another thing often described is levels of quality

    Picks

    1-4 elite
    5-10 great
    11-25 really good
    26- 55 good but interchangeable

    This is what most people use to describe a deep draft.

    Expect a decent player to say pick 80 and another year to pick 55.

    This year is thought to have less decent prospects than other years. ( people love to hype what is coming next and usually bash what is right In front. IE Reinhart being hyped for last couple years and now is maybe a 1-4 pick) (also the. Outstanding draft next year. Which I agree)

    http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

    The link is the article for the draft chart.

    Another thought is that round 3 top 10 picks have performed better historically is teams trade for their scouts guys here and scouts are very sure and outspoken with a 3rd pick, less outspoken early because of the pressure.

  43. jp says:

    One-Timer:

    To me a “deep” or “shallow” draft only describes the upper echelon of the cluster. An entire 210-player sample should not vary drastically in quality from year to year.

    Very nice point, and difficult to disagree with. Maybe MacT can turn the perception of a shallow draft into added value beyond the 2nd round.

  44. Lowetide says:

    2002 was a weak draft, Oilers rolled out of the second round with Matt Greene and Jarret Stoll.

  45. One-Timer says:

    Lowetide,

    Then there was 2003…

    * sob *

  46. supernova says:

    jp: Very nice point, and difficult to disagree with. Maybe MacT can turn the perception of a shallow draft into added value beyond the 2nd round.

    jp,

    Actually I disagree with this.

    Some drafts churn out lots of games played and lots of points scored outside of the upper echelon ( depends on what exactly that is )

    Other drafts turn out very low amounts and even some times in that upper echelon.

  47. jp says:

    supernova: jp,

    Actually I disagree with this.

    Some drafts churn out lots of games played and lots of points scored outside of the upper echelon ( depends on what exactly that is )

    Other drafts turn out very low amounts and even some times in that upper echelon.

    I primarily liked One-Timer’s logic. How could a group of 200+ players vary from say 2001 to 2002? (aside from a relatively few elite players). Drafts clearly do vary, but I don’t see how this could occur aside from randomness (which again, should affect relatively few players).

    One-Timer said: ” Deep or shallow will make no difference when you’re talking 3rd to 7th round”. I had a quick look at 1995 to 2004 draft results from hockeydb (largely arbitrary time points, but long enough for players to be well established, and 9 rounds each year). I counted how many players from each round and from each year made it to 200 NHL GP.

    If a “deep” draft will produce more players not only in the elite group but throughout the draft, there should be a correlation between the number of NHLers to make it from the early rounds and the number that make it from the late rounds in a given year. Fair?

    To test that I pooled the number of 200 GP players from the 1st and 2nd round for each year (these are the guys who would make the draft “deep” or “shallow”), as well as the number from rounds 3-9. The years are sorted by most to least 1st+2nd round picks with 200+GP, also showing the number of later round picks with 200+GP.

    1+2 3-9 (year)
    40 26 (2003)
    31 17 (2002)
    30 31 (1998)
    29 17 (2000)
    27 32 (2001)
    —————–
    25 29 (2004)
    24 27 (1995)
    22 27 (1996)
    19 22 (1999)
    17 25 (1997)

    Not sure if it’s clear by eye, but there is no correlation between the number of 200GP players coming from the 1st plus 2nd rounds and those coming from the 3rd round on in a given year.

    If you pool the 5 years that produced the most 1st+2nd rounders (above the dashed line), they produced 123 players from round 3+. The 5 yrs with the least 1+2 rounders produced 130 players from rounds 3+.

    Similarly the top 3 yrs for 1st+2nd round production gave 74 players from rounds 3+, while the bottom 3 yrs for 1st+2nd rounds also gave 74 players from round 3 on. So absolutely zero correlation at all between strong early rounds of a draft and strong late rounds.

    I suppose this could change if you use just 5 or 10 players as your upper echelon, but I doubt it. And I think this nicely supports One-Timer’s original point.

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