NO SUCCESS LIKE FIALA

Two years ago, Desjardins NHLE screamed at the top of its lungs “HERTL!” but no one listened until the middle of the first round. Desjardins’ NHLE and Corey Pronman are screaming “Fiala” this spring. Is anybody listening?

FIALA!!!!

Gunnar Svensson is a hockey agent in Sweden and a pretty cool follow on twitter (plus Magnus Paajarvi’s Dad). I had a chance to talk to him this weekend about several 2014 eligibles, and his quote on Kevin Fiala was very interesting:

  • Kevin Fiala: “One of my best friends going back 30 years took over his team midseason. He told me that Fiala is the most talented player he’s ever coached. He is for sure a very, very promising player. If I were an NHL team, I would go very hard for him.”

Maybe we’re discussing Nylander but should be talking Fiala? NHLE is screaming his name just like it did with Tomas Hertl in 2012. I think we need to revisit the Pronman assertion. I understand the small SHL sample size, but this is really important. Is Kevin Fiala one of the 10 best prospects? 5? WHERE does he fit?

nurse1

 

We had a chat last night about the 2014 draft and how it compares to last year. The NHLE (Desjardins’ division) tells us about the players projected as sure top first rounders (Darnell Nurse, in photo, included) and also delivered enough offense to be considered bona fide.

DESJARDINS’ NHLE for 12-13 Forwards (35 or more pts)

  1. Jonathan Drouin, Halifax (QMJHL) 19-30-49
  2. Sasha Barkov, Tappere Tampere (SM-Liiga) 18-22-40
  3. Elias Lindholm, Brynas (SEL) 15-25-40
  4. Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax (QMJHL) 17-22-39

This group of four performed very well via the NHLE, and three of them made their NHL debuts. Drouin was held back, but was the most talented in the group. I think we can assume that a group reaching these levels (35+ points) have a chance to step into the NHL in some kind of role.

DESJARDINS NHLE for 13-14 Forwards (35 or more points)

  1. Sam Reinhart (WHL) 15-28-43
  2. Kevin Fiala (SHL) 11-30-41
  3. Leon Draisaitl (WHL) 15-25-40
  4. Sam Bennett (OHL) 16-23-39
  5. Nikolaj Ehlers (QMJHL) 18-20-38
  6. Robby Fabri (OHL) 19-18-37
  7. Michael Dal Colle (OHL) 14-21-35
  8. Nikolai Goldobin (OHL) 14-21-35
  9. Sonny Milano (USHL) 12-23-35

I doubt anyone thinks four forwards from this year’s draft  will exceed MacKinnon’s rookie season,  but as a group this year’s model does seem to have a little better depth. In looking at this group, I’d say these nine could be candidates for the NHL, and Nylander (not on this list) may also be good enough to make the leap. We also have to decide about Fiala—if that small sample size represents, then we have to find a place for him somewhere in the top group, right?

2012-13 Defensemen (15 or more points)

  1. Seth Jones, Portland (WHL) 6-17-23
  2. Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste Marie (OHL) 4-11-15

Two defensemen reached this level a year ago, Jones of course being the leader. It was a better year for defensemen overall, but among the potential first-round selections only two reached 15 NHLE.

2013-14 Defensemen (15 or more points)

  1.  Anthong DeAngelo (OHL) 7-27-34
  2. Aaron Ekblad (OHL) 10-12-22
  3. Julius Honka (WHL) 6-16-22
  4. Roland McKeown (OHL) 4-13-17
  5. Haydn Fleury (WHL) 3-13-16

This year we have five, and it’s interesting to compare Fleury’s bio (puck moving defenseman, offensive type) with Nurse’s resume a year ago (many questioned his offensive abilities). Honka looks wildly underrated from here.

Lowdown today at 10 on TSN 1260 features Scott Burnside from TSN, former Oiler prospect Kevin Bolibruck, our own Rom from Oilers Rig (at 11) and good friend Travis Yost from Hockeybuzz. @Lowetide_ on twitter, 10-1260 on the text.

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49 Responses to "NO SUCCESS LIKE FIALA"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “We had a chat last night about the 2014 draft and how it compares to last year. The NHLE (Desjardins’ division) tells us that no one in this year’s draft can approach Jonathan Drouin (in photo), but there is better depth.”

    Drouin and Nurse look eerily similar.

  2. zatch says:

    I’m always vaguely irked by guys like Fiala and Honka when the Oilers are in this position. To me, they scream high potential players. I would lay money down that Honka will be better than Fleury. But you can’t really pick them in the top 5, or sometimes 10. The optics are too poor and I assume it would be someones job on the line if they reached 10 spots and it didn’t pan out, which of course can happen. I think that’s why Hertl got picked up where he did. I’m willing to bet there were scouts who liked him plenty but didn’t feel comfortable making the reach, and drafted safe over savvy. I think Honka is closer to what NHL defencemen will be in the next 10 years than any 6’4 crusher.

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Honka lotta size issues.

    http://www.whl.ca/roster/show/id/14586

    5’11″ 175 is going to scatter interested parties pretty fast when Fs are on the line, let alone D.

    The size obsession kills the value of these kids.

  4. Shau-co says:

    Of Course LA took both Hyka and Pearson in 2012…

    C’mon Oilers, start using statistics already!!

  5. VanOil says:

    In the words of the Hip, ‘who gives a fuck about hockey’ when we can listen to Clapton http://youtu.be/ZZ29lKiKHDs

    Fiala or Nylander who should I fear the Canucks drafting most?

  6. Hammers says:

    There are 5 points separating the top 5 so in many ways any combination of injuries , good or bad luck can have an impact on any of them as to there point totals over the next 4-5 years . One of my big bug bears are injuries and how they can both ruin a career or slow it down .Pitlick & Hamilton are examples and to an extent Klefbom . You start wondering when the next time will be .

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    http://okcbarons.com/index.cfm?fa=pressreleases&ra=showarticle&guid=9D19AC77-3484-4564-B44E-59A23F1F02CC

    depth signing. watch for more with players like Combs, Fyten, Stretch. any could be re-signed.

    this should insulate the kids (Khaira, Yakimov, Moroz, etc.) some.

  8. zatch says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    5’11 and 175 isn’t tiny though, so I assume that may calm some scouts down. I think he’s gonna be a hell of a player. I’m sure NHL.com is excited to see what they can do with his name on the front page.

    I think this season will go down as the first year that fancystats and in general, analytical thinking, made real headway in the NHL. It took the Leafs crashing and burning to get it there, but that just made it sweeter. Part of that is Montreal doing so well with a small, lightning fast team as well. I feel like teams will look twice at drafting or signing an obviously low talent coke machine over a smaller but obviously better at hockey guy.

    In general, I feel that mobile puck moving defencemen, especially those that are 6’0 or smaller, are underrated and valued in the league. That may change soon.

  9. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    DeAngelo?

    I just don’t know if he’s a lock for high first round. He could go, but there are a lot of issues

  10. Bar_Qu says:

    zatch,

    That is very hopeful of you to say. But I read Gregor saying just this week that having size is what gave the final four teams in the SCFs their ability to be there (conveniently brushing aside Montreal). At least I think it was Gregor.

    The size obsession is not going away.

    But hopefully there is a recognition that size without skill is not a helpful thing either.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    zatch: 5’11 and 175 isn’t tiny though, so I assume that may calm some scouts down.

    I don’t think it’s particularly tiny, esp. for an 18 year old. You may not either.

    And, other than his vital and boxcar stats I really don’t know much about him…

    but, if some think Bennett is small for a F… they’ll think Honka is Lilliputian for a D.

  12. Racki says:

    @zatch

    I think it’s good to value the small talented guys but the Oilers switched to that philosophy a bit too strongly in the past half decade. I think you still should be looking for the big guy that’s almost as good. The Kings would romp on the Habs. The Habs also had bigger players like Weise and Prust playing big roles.. Galchenyuk is not small and is physical.. Bourque is big and had a big game in that 7-4 (or 5?) win, even though he’s not physical. They have some small guys but they have some good size scattered in the line up too.

    The way I see it is teams need balance. Too much of one thing, even if a good thing, isn’t necessarily good. I wouldn’t stack up on all large forwards either. But some of these big guys nowadays have great wheels too.

    One thing that’s irked me about the Oilers is they often ignored balance. They solve holes in bulk… Our D too small? Move them all out and bring in lumbering D men.. Oh crap, now they’re too slow.. Move them all out for guys who are all mobile, but pushovers. They need to find a balance there, IMHO. Mostly mobile guys, but a couple of your mobile guys should be big guys who can engage in the physical aspects of the game.

  13. speeds says:

    LT: Honka’s not a first round lock either.

    Button has DeAngelo ahead,in his latest list I can find:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

    ISS has neither in their top 30:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=114013

  14. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    LT: Honka’s not a first round lock either.

    Button has DeAngelo ahead,in his latest list I can find:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

    ISS has neither in their top 30:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=114013

    I’m more confident Honka makes it, DeAngelo has some issues. OHL Prospects has a really good summary. Would you take DeAngelo over Honka or McKeown?

  15. speeds says:

    Lowetide,

    I don’t know. But I do think you’re doing what you call “framing the issue” when you don’t include the player who would be 1st on your NHLE list, especially when it’s not consensus that he’s far, far behind one of the guys you did include.

  16. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Lowetide,

    I don’t know.But I do think you’re doing what you call “framing the issue” when you don’t include the player who would be 1st on your NHLE list, especially when it’s not consensus that he’s far, far behind one of the guys you did include.

    Fair enough, I’ll throw him on the pile

  17. borisnikov says:

    zatch:

    5’11 and 175 isn’t tiny though

    Romulus Apotheosis: I don’t think it’s particularly tiny, esp. for an 18 year old. You may not either.

    And, other than his vital and boxcar stats I really don’t know much about him…

    but, if some think Bennett is small for a F… they’ll think Honka is Lilliputian for a D.

    If you are talking about drafting a D-man in the first round of the draft, lets assume you’d hope he turns into a guy who can play against another team’s top 6F. At 175 lbs he’s just under 27 lbs lighter than the league average top 6F (by ES PT/60). He’ll grow but how much?

    Can you expect a 5’11″ 190ish lb, when mature, D-man to thrive against the west coast teams?

    Does he have the frame to carry more than 175 lbs?

    As a size comparison what was Sam Gagner on draft day… 185-190? He’s listed at just over 200 now.

    By today’s standards a 175 lb D man IS tiny.

  18. frjohnk says:

    Rom, great job again. Done like a veteran.

  19. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:
    Rom, great job again.Done like a veteran.

    he was excellent

  20. shawnmullin says:

    Honka is not a really broad shouldered guy or anything, but he’s a strong 175lbs. He can mix it up and win battles. We’re talking about in junior though so that has to translate to the pros. It’s more his intelligence and elusiveness that would win the day for him.

    No player is everything. He probably wouldn’t have that same level of speed, skill and elusiveness if he was 6’3 225.

  21. Andy P says:

    Wikipedia lists Fiala at 5’9″. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Fiala

    Do we want another Arcobello?

  22. nycoil says:

    VanOil,

    Ehlers?

  23. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide; At first I was wondering why you write this, in fact the Oilers have no picks other than 3rd overall then it’s too late in the draft to know anything, according to hfboards level hockey wisdom.

    Then see its MPV’s dad, and everyone wishes he was still an oiler since he was the only naturally defensive aware rookie I’ve ever seen on the oilers post 2000. Selke candidate without breaking into a sweat…you’d hope MacT was trying to get him back if possible. How about a 2nd in the 2015 draft and a lousy can’t even make the oilers yet appears to have value player?

    Then the Swede’s not too small only as long as he has a Peter Forsberg sized heart, and the accepted on Lowetide banter rapidly degenerates again into the “why can’t this team find more small players?” inanity which kills the deal.

    RE that hockey cup idea: THE KEVIN LOWE CUP seems apt. Played sometime during preseason, takes about 2 weeks total for the finalists.

    THE KEVIN LOWE CUP(2015)

    Round 1:

    8 top AHL teams drawn by lot to meet 8 NHL bottom teams.

    8 games played

    Round 2:

    From the 8 games drawn by lot(using the English FA Cup system), the remaining 8 teams re-enter another draw, which theoretically pits any team against another.

    4 games played

    Round 3:

    The 4 remaining teams re-enter the final draw which determines who plays who in the semi final games.

    2 games played

    Round 4(FINAL):

    Final played in the city of the team with the worst record, lol.(optional)

    The KEVIN LOWE CUP 2015

    THE CUP THAT KNOWS ABOUT WINNING

  24. hunter1909 says:

    ps: Oilers would be one of the favorites in the Kevin Lowe Cup. That’s good enough for this fan.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On Honka….

    one of the names that came to mind was Voynov for some reason. He’s often considered “undersized”

    see hockey news’ report:

    http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/hockeynews/hockey/player.php?6502

    Assets: Can produce good point totals, especially when given the chance to play the point on power plays. Is a very good puck-moving blueliner with some feistiness to his game.
    Flaws: Lacks the ideal size of an NHL defenseman (he’s only 5-11), so he may not be able to play with consistent physicality at the highest level over time due to his limitations.
    Career Potential: Offensive defenseman with upside.

    he’s currently 6′ and 194

    he was 5’11″ to 6′ and 190 in his draft year:

    http://web.archive.org/web/20080619223039/http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?fid=11502

    ——–
    I don’t know why he came to mind. But you can see worries over his size and he’s got some considerable weight on Honka.

    There are probably better comps. but, I think the point stands. Whatever the hockey stats say, people still worry a lot over the vital stats.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk:
    Rom, great job again.Done like a veteran.

    Lowetide: he was excellent

    thanks guys! had a great time.

  27. oliveoilers says:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-centre-mikhail-grabovski-signs-pro-soccer-contract-in-belarus/

    So now some of us want to sign soccer players? Could be conditioning.

  28. Racki says:

    oliveoilers:
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-centre-mikhail-grabovski-signs-pro-soccer-contract-in-belarus/

    So now some of us want to sign soccer players?Could be conditioning.

    Uhm, so what’s the transfer agreement between the NHL and the Belarussian Premier League look like? Lol

  29. godot10 says:

    Did anyone tell Gregor that Kyle Clifford was passed like he was standing still by Toffoli and Pearson on the Kings depth chart, and he was a 4th liner with his ass mostly stapled to the bench against Chicago,.

    And even with limited minutes, the counter on his minuses was spinning out of control.

    No wonder Lombardi was trying to pawn him off on the Oilers for Gagner (with the Oilers retaining salary).

    The Kings went smaller, younger, faster and more talented to beat Chicago, Anaheim, and San Jose. They added smaller skilled players to their roster at the deadline. Gaborik, Toffoli, Pearson.

    And for all you Justin Schultz haters out there, Nick Leddy now is over 200 career NHL games, still on the 3rd pairing. And he gets to play those 3rd pairing minutes mostly with a grizzled veteran in Rosival.

    Justin Schultz, only 100 games in, forced to play in the top 4, big minutes, with a 3rd pairing or worse defensive partner.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    oliveoilers:
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-centre-mikhail-grabovski-signs-pro-soccer-contract-in-belarus/

    So now some of us want to sign soccer players?Could be conditioning.

    that’s a great, great find. really interesting move.

    I wonder if he was under contract, if he’d be allowed by his team (fear of injury).

    At any rate, it sounds like a lot of fun for Grabo.

    Back in Vic… Steve Nash used to play very low grade pro soccer with his brother in the Summer. I always thought that was cool.

    (of course, from vic… anything Nash did was cool!)

  31. hunter1909 says:

    Racki: One thing that’s irked me about the Oilers is they often ignored balance. They solve holes in bulk… Our D too small? Move them all out and bring in lumbering D men.. Oh crap, now they’re too slow.. Move them all out for guys who are all mobile, but pushovers.

    What else do you expect? Lowe, MacT, and now Eakins are all proven idiots.

    godot10: Did anyone tell Gregor that Kyle Clifford was passed like he was standing still by Toffoli and Pearson on the Kings depth chart, and he was a 4th liner with his ass mostly stapled to the bench against Chicago,.
    And even with limited minutes, the counter on his minuses was spinning out of control.
    No wonder Lombardi was trying to pawn him off on the Oilers for Gagner (with the Oilers retaining salary).

    True. Nevertheless, Oilers practically stole Teubert from Lombardi. Okay, that was bullshit.

  32. hunter1909 says:

    Seems no one wants to give Sutter his due for coaching the Kings to another final series.

    His brother was/is presumably still available to coach RNH and the Oilers, but no; better to let MacT play his hunches, and so far one full season has been totally blown under Dallas “Florida” Eakins.

    What do the Sutter family know, anyway?

  33. hunter1909 says:

    ps: LAK’s Sutter refuses to ever call out his players in public. Dallas “Florida” Eakins regularly employs his bully pulpit v the NHLPA millionaires he’s currently fucking up, lol.

    Okay. Enough is enough. Go England until they’re booted from the World Cup(minimum games, + maybe 1 more before they’re back home to consult their publicists).

    Then Brazil all the way, baby!

  34. hunter1909 says:

    If any of you rabid hockey fans want to see soccer played the way it ought to be, then watch Brazil in the upcoming World Cup. They’re always a condenser for the top prize, and play a strong defense followed by all out attacking style once employed by the dynasty Oilers on ice.

  35. nycoil says:

    hunter1909:
    ps: LAK’s Sutter refuses to ever call out his players in public. Dallas “Florida” Eakins regularly employs his bully pulpit v the NHLPA millionaires he’s currently fucking up, lol.

    Okay. Enough is enough. Go England until they’re booted from the World Cup(minimum games, + maybe 1 more before they’re back home to consult their publicists).

    Then Brazil all the way, baby!

    Uruguay and Italy should knock England out in the group stage; Costa Rica, however, lost to mediocre Japan 3-1 yesterday so that will be England’s best hope for a win.

    P.S. Sutter does kind of call out his players in public–maybe to motivate them though… example below

    On Dustin Brown’s lack of penalty killing time:
    Penalty killing is based on performance. [Reporter: What part of his performance have you maybe not liked in terms of how it relates to penalty killing?] Other guys are better penalty killers.
    It doesn’t matter if he’s a captain or not. If you get to play with a top-five player in the NHL in Kopitar, you better be consistent. That’s not criticizing Dustin Brown. If you’re going to play with him, you better be.

  36. Caramel Obvious says:

    “I could have been a condenser!”

  37. Younger Oil says:

    Button’s final rankings here:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

    He has Sanheim #8, which seems kind of insane to me…like I think the kid is going to be good, and would have loved to try to get him in a later round, but the top 10 seems a bit off base.

    Virtanen at #43 boggles the mind too.

  38. Younger Oil says:

    I have a feeling that Detroit is going to get Fiala and turn him into a star.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Younger Oil:
    Button’s final rankings here:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

    He has Sanheim #8, which seems kind of insane to me…like I think the kid is going to be good, and would have loved to try to get him in a later round, but the top 10 seems a bit off base.

    Virtanen at #43 boggles the mind too.

    Sanheim has moved into the first round if we’re to believe the trend, but that’s a little high. Button’s list is always interesting.

  40. nycoil says:

    Am I wrong for always discounting Button’s list a little every year due to his poor job of GM-ing the Flames? Surprised Virtanen, Fabbri, Fiala, McKeown so low as well. And what am I missing on Mason MacDonald as the top G? HIs numbers look pretty pedestrian. Goalies are tougher than Euros to project!

    If the draft plays out anything like what Button suggests, Oilers should move back into the late 1st or early 2nd to get some of these guys.

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Younger Oil:
    Button’s final rankings here:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

    He has Sanheim #8, which seems kind of insane to me…like I think the kid is going to be good, and would have loved to try to get him in a later round, but the top 10 seems a bit off base.

    Virtanen at #43 boggles the mind too.

    thanks for posting.

    it’s funny when these guys fail to promote their stuff and it just pops up.

    the surprises for me are the big movements in his list from month to month. esp. since there wasn’t a lot of hockey for these guys in the past month.

  42. misfit says:

    Fiala is a bit on the small side, and while there are lots of examples of small players in the NHL who are effective, it’s still a legitimate knock on a player in junior when projecting him to the NHL.

    Hertl’s numbers suggested he could score at the NHL level, but he also had fewer physical limitations to get in the way of him achieving those projections.

    Mattias Tedenby, Zach Boychuk, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Ennis, Ryan Ellis, Jordan Weal, Jordan Schroeder, Rocco Grimaldi, and Ryan Murphy all had strong NHLE and the “yeah he’s undersized, but his offense is too good to be ignored” tag heading into the draft. Eberle and Ennis proved it to be true, but I’d say more often than not these players struggle to make it and prove their fall on draft day to be justified.

    Hyka was an NHLE hero in the 2012 draft playing against kids, but he’s struggled mightily since transferring Sweden and playing against men (though that’s probably not entirely fair to him as it’s still early).

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    nycoil:
    Am I wrong for always discounting Button’s list a little every year due to his poor job of GM-ing the Flames? Surprised Virtanen, Fabbri, Fiala, McKeown so low as well. And what am I missing on Mason MacDonald as the top G? HIs numbers look pretty pedestrian. Goalies are tougher than Euros to project!

    If the draft plays out anything like what Button suggests, Oilers should move back into the late 1st or early 2nd to get some of these guys.

    I don’t see any reason to discount his list. I’d just take it with a big grain of salt.

    The thing I like about Button is that he’s pretty good at explaining the rationale for his choices, even if they sound loopy.

    I also think these kinds of individual lists help us to get a sense of the wide variety of opinion out there that probably gets smoothed over in the aggregate lists.

    It’s a helpful reminder that “consensus” is an aggregate of individual settled opinions, rather than the end result of a group working together to come to some agreement.

  44. godot10 says:

    nycoil:
    Am I wrong for always discounting Button’s list a little every year due to his poor job of GM-ing the Flames? Surprised Virtanen, Fabbri, Fiala, McKeown so low as well. And what am I missing on Mason MacDonald as the top G? HIs numbers look pretty pedestrian. Goalies are tougher than Euros to project!

    If the draft plays out anything like what Button suggests, Oilers should move back into the late 1st or early 2nd to get some of these guys.

    The worst time to try to obtain draft picks is June. The mantra for late in the first round is “Perron, Perron, Perron”. July is the worst time to sell draft picks.

    A good organization collects as many draft picks as possible from July to the trade deadline to sell in June.

    Last year, because of crisis management, MacT did the reverse. Crisis management has to stop.

  45. nycoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Sure, variety is the spice of life; maybe it’s just me but I like RLR or Pronman or those guys in terms of what they are looking at over the likes of Button, where his lists just seem like he is going for the shock factor. I think it’s probably just my anti-Flames bias shining through.

    I mean, we thought Smid was bad? Savard for Zainullin?

  46. nycoil says:

    godot10,

    I agree 100% with what you wrote. I wanted more trades for picks at the deadline this year, which we could then leverage into actual players at the draft this month. It didn’t happen.

    I should be more careful to think before I write. I was just saying in a tongue-in-cheek fashion that if Virtanen falls to 40, we should deal back up for a 2nd to get him, provided the cost makes sense, of course. I think it’s moot as I can’t see him slipping past, say 15 at the worst.

  47. Pieces of a Man: Top Ten 2014 NHL Draft Eligible Players - The Oilers Rig - The Oilers Rig says:

    […] For more studies of the 2014 draft in terms of NHLE see this excellent article by Byron Bader and these numerous articles by Lowetide here, here and here. […]

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