OILERS SIGN NIKITIN

The Edmonton Oilers evaluated the market for free agent defensemen this spring and landed on Nikita Nikitin (as per Aaron Portzline twitter). They made a low-risk move to get him onside, and this morning the Oilers signed their man. What do they see in him? What is he? What role will he fill?

  • Rob Vollman, ESPN: Good defensemen are hard to come by, he offers the potential of a solid top-4 option like he was in ’11-12 without the risk of a deal like Ference.
  • Corey Pronman, ESPN: He went from good, to average, to poor in the last 3 seasons. He was a good player to help youngsters few years ago, but now he needs help.
  • Corey Sznajder, Shutdown Line: He’s a very underrated player. Nice trade for the Oilers. He’s a good 4-5 defenseman. Special teams time dried up this year for whatever reason.

It’s always interesting to get other opinions, and the words from these three gents are encouraging. Here’s what I said about the possibility of Nikitin’s acquisition in January:

  • The Oilers need to get it  right this summer on the blue. A top-pairing defender who is proven and can play in all three disciplines is vital. Craig MacTavish may in fact call on Scott Howson for an update on Nikita Nikitin and the scouting report may be positive from the former Columbus GM. Nikitin can certainly play NHL defense, and that has value. I think he falls well short of being a proven top-pairing solution at this time.

I think that all rings true, and suspect the reason MacT targeted Nikitin had a lot to do with Howson. I read this acquisition (and signing) as an attempt to address the number one item on the Oilers shopping list this summer.

friedman nikitin

UPDATE: Elliotte Friedman tweets out the term. You will see a lot of reaction to the dollars, but it’s important to remember the Oilers signed Nikitin for two years. The shorter term, and overpay, is a better plan in my opinion. Edmonton has to stop tying themselves to long term deals for 6′s and 7′s and 9′s.

MACT’S SUMMER 2014 LIST

  1. A veteran top pairing defenseman. A real man, big time EV minutes and a history of successful sorties. Update: Nikita Nikitin is the solution.
  2. A 2line C with experience and the ability to play a two-way game. This is the other vital piece.
  3. A legit two-way winger who can score 12-15 goals. The Pisani role. Mentor, calms the waters.
  4. Find a way to get value, or make use of, Sam Gagner. This does not include time at center.
  5. Improve the bottom 6F’s.
  6. Retain as much of the young cluster as possible, understanding that the player who represents #1 on this list might cost a young D who will one day fill that role.
  7. Get Petry signed long term.
  8. Sign Schultz but DO NOT break the bank.

This is the first step in the offseason, and as was the case last season (Andrew Ference) the Oilers acquire an actual NHL player, but one who is shy of the task at hand.

OILERS PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

LEFT DEFENSE RIGHT DEFENSE
MARTIN MARINCIN JEFF PETRY (RFA)
NIKITA NIKITIN JUSTIN SCHULTZ (RFA)
ANDREW FERENCE OSCAR KLEFBOM

So far in the young career of Justin Schultz, the Oilers have tried Nick Schultz and Andrew Ference as partners and neither veteran could cover off enough mistakes. I expect Nikita Nikitin is next into the fire, but would also suggest that Oscar Klefbom will be flying sorties with Schultz the rambler soon. In the world of Oilers chemistry, finding a suitable partner for Justin Schultz is becoming an annual rite of summer.

IS THIS A TERRIBLE SOLUTION?

Nikitin is a bit of a riddle in that his usage is confusing the conversation. He’s 28, has had an effective season in a prominent role, but has also faded for two seasons since. I’m pleased the Oilers have acquired an actual NHL defensemen—more, please—but concerned that once again the club has failed to address that top pairing in any way. Perhaps MacTavish has another surprise on the way, perhaps there’s land on the horizon when we wake tomorrow. And maybe there’s only Engelland after all.

And perhaps, and this is something we already know, perhaps Martin Marincin-Jeff Petry is the top pairing and shoring up the defense will come from adding actual NHL players to contribute down the depth chart. It’s bass ackwards, but the fact remains that the best LH defenseman on this roster today is a tall kid from Kocise with 44 big league games to his name.

NIKITA NIKITIN PLAYER CARD VIA EXTRA SKATER

nikitin es

THE VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

nikitin sledge

Nikitin played the soft parade, with David Savard, and a nice zone push. They were not able to get enough done with those fun minutes, and the Blue Jackets have other options. If Nikitin can fill the Schultz partner role, which is quickly becoming the ‘dead man skating’ role for veteran NHL defenders, then this deal will shine like a diamond in Edmonton.

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220 Responses to "OILERS SIGN NIKITIN"

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  1. Ducey says:

    Great news! Good value for a 5th. Another actual NHL player.

  2. FTO says:

    Wow that was fast, Had this one ready to go? Or just a super fast typer?

  3. Southern Oil says:

    2 years @ $4.5M AAV per Bob McKenzie.

  4. Southern Oil says:

    AAV is high but I like the term. We have the cap space so I don’t see this as being a bad deal IMO.

  5. russ99 says:

    Southern Oil:
    2 years @ $4.5M AAV per Bob McKenzie.

    A bit of an overpay, but that’s to be expected considering we had to go high to keep him from hitting UFA, plus we have the cap room to make such moves.

    Nice pickup. But I don’t see him as the “top pairing” guy, more like the solid veteran bottom-4 guy we’ve badly needed for years.

  6. Pouzar says:

    Gotta be a bottom pairing guy me thinks. He really played the sheltered minutes in CBJ didn’t he.

    Good start. Let’s sign Stastny now.

  7. RexLibris says:

    He was mentioned alongside Hejda yesterday and I was thinking these past few days, that is exactly who I think of when I think of Nikitin.

    Solid support guy that will hopefully provide Eakins and Ramsay with about 18 quiet minutes a night.

  8. Ben says:

    Alright, let’s give Gazdic league max and get on with this.

    I pray that there will come a day when being a respectable hockey club makes these deals 25% cheaper.

  9. Lowetide says:

    I think the key is to keep him out of the Ference third pairing. Schultz can move up and down as the crazy hits, maybe Klefbom alternates. I’m pleased they’ve added an NHL defenseman, but would be thrilled if they added another.

  10. Lowetide says:

    FTO:
    Wow that was fast, Had this one ready to go? Or just a super fast typer?

    You give me three days notice, I’ll write a signing about your next job that’ll make you cry. :-)

  11. frjohnk says:

    I don’t really care what the money is, it’s Katz’s money not mine, it is the term that matters in this signing. If he can regain some of his form from a few years ago, this is an excellent signing. This signing lets Nurse ripen one more year in the OHL and then the AHL next year.

  12. fuzzy muppet says:

    LT.

    Don’t even think of crossing off the #1 item on the list. If Nikitin is the answer to acquiring a top-line D man, then we are doomed.

    Doomed I tells ya!

    In fact, this feels like a precursor to trading away Petry. If they gave Nikitin 4.5, now how much is Petry worth??

    One step fprward…three steps back. The Oiler way

  13. Lowetide says:

    Bohologo:
    Nikitin is from Omsk. Never been there, but it’s located near the border with Kazakhstan, sort of between Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk in western Siberia. Lots of sun, bitterly cold winters, population just over one million. Sounds a lot like YEG. Hometown of Dostoevsky, who once said, “There is no subject so old that something new cannot be said about it.”

    This is why I love this blog. Great great stuff, Bohologo.

  14. eidy says:

    Heavy on $, right on term. Had to pay extra for belov’s comments on Eakins.

    Need another defence man and wonder about Ranger. History with Eakins and rumors of him and Edmonton last year. Cost wouldn’t be terribly high and would be a solid addition. Way more than engelland/Fraser options.

  15. leadfarmer says:

    Holy crap. MacT has lost his mind. This is a guy that was pushed out of the Blue Jackets for poor play and they’re not exactly world beaters defensively. What are you going to sign Petry and Schultz to now.

  16. slopitch says:

    Lombardi recently pegged UFA signings as 30% overpays. 4.5 is about 35% above where he should be but the term is OK. I see the depth exactly as LT put it in the article.

    I’ll take another overpay or 2 on short term deals. More NHL players please.

  17. wintoon says:

    This is a solid signing. The key is that he is an actual NHL D Man and, with this signing complete, MacT can turn his focus to the other vital upgrades required this off season (epxerienced #2C and a legitimate top pairing D Man)

    While this move would not be classified as ‘bold’ it is another positive step forward.

  18. nelson88 says:

    nice.

    maybe ekblad falls in their laps and klefbom can season in OKC and be an injury call up.

    marincin – petry
    nitkinin – schultz
    ference – ekblad

    no murderer’s row but a hefty step up on the “balance” and ‘”potential” scales from what has been iced the last few years.

  19. Bank Shot says:

    Nikitin is referenced by Lowetide as a guy that had a good first season and then faded some, followed by slotting Marincin in the first pairing.

    Lets remember that Marincin’s numbers faded hard down the home stretch last season and putting him at the top of the depth chart is setting him up for failure IMO.

    The Oilers still need a top pairing defenceman if they want to be somewhat competitive this year. Ideally they need to add a top pairing guy and another top four to push Marincin and Klefbom into call up territory. That would give the Oilers a playoff calibre D-core.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot:
    Nikitin is referenced by Lowetide as a guy that had a good first season and then faded some, followed by slotting Marincin in the first pairing.

    Lets remember that Marincin’s numbers faded hard down the home stretch last season and putting him at the top of the depth chart is setting him up for failure IMO.

    The Oilers still need a top pairing defenceman if they want to be somewhat competitive this year. Ideally they need to add a top pairing guy and another top four to push Marincin and Klefbom into call up territory. That would give the Oilers a playoff calibre D-core.

    Agree completely. It may not be there, though.

  21. leadfarmer says:

    Am I the only one that thinks third pairing defenseman should be paid 2.0 mil or less.

  22. slopitch says:

    I agree. I dont think this cancels #1 on the list but I’m not sure how easy that one is gonna be to solve.

    LT would drafting Ekblad solve #1 on your list? Or are you talking only about 2014-15?

  23. fuzzy muppet says:

    One Positive: this likely means no Mark Fraser returning.

  24. Lowetide says:

    slopitch:
    I agree. I dont think this cancels #1 on the list but I’m not sure how easy that one is gonna be to solve.

    LT would drafting Ekblad solve #1 on your list? Or are you talking only about 2014-15?

    Ekblad would be strictly third pairing imo, and I’d send him back.

  25. Rondo says:

    Looking at Vollman Sledgehammer he has played sheltered minutes in the Eastern conference. with an excellent goalie.

  26. fuzzy muppet says:

    leadfarmer,

    My concern is the Agent’s for Schultz and Petry are now going to use this deal as a barometer. I know they are only RFA’s, but Petry is a better player than Nikitin and we’ve heard NOTHING about his re-signing.

    I’m not sure my Anxiety can handle the next 10 days.

    Where’s my Xanax???

  27. Clarkenstein says:

    This year’s Belov. Nothing more.

  28. hoser313 says:

    KLowe was quoted awhile back that “MacT would probably add another Andrew Ference type if he could”. Well, here is that guy.

    Like the signing.

  29. slopitch says:

    Still 2 days to make a trade. I’m sure MacT has intentions of making a trade in the next couple days.

  30. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: Ekblad would be strictly third pairing imo, and I’d send him back.

    On the oilers, probably top 4, first pairing on the PP. 24 minutes a night, head under water more than above, gasping for air by the 20 game mark

  31. Truth says:

    Realistically this is should be looked at as a depth signing that pushes Klefbom and/or Marincin down to the AHL. Should MacT be comfortable with a top 4 of Petry, Nikitin, Schultz, Ference? I’m not.

    I play it safe and count on Marincin and Klefbom performing to at a lesser level than they played last season. If you count on them to be regular NHL defencemen you may have lost the season already. Also safe to assume one defenceman injured at all times throughout the season.

    Player to be acquired – Petry

    Player to be signed – Nikitin/Ference

    Ference/Nikitin – Schultz

    Marincin

  32. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Hopefully we sign a right D to play 3rd pairing with Ference. Given that we have no world beaters on this team the seperation between the pairings should be less than what you see out of teams with elite level talent.

    Given their success at the AHL level, it could be the plan is:

    Nikitin/Petry
    Marincin/Schultz
    Ference/XXXXX (Klefbom)
    (Klefbom/XXXX)

    Hopefully we find a way to send Klefbom down. To me the ideal #7 on this team is actually Fedun on a cap friendly 1 way deal (league minimum 1 way). He’s old enough that I don’t worry about him sitting a few games and lacking development time, and I like the way he plays the game.

  33. Bank Shot says:

    Lowetide: Agree completely. It may not be there, though.

    Mact has to make something be there. He used up his free pass last season tinkering around the edges.

    They consistently took the Best Forward Available. Now they need to trade for need. Another bottom 5 finish isn’t acceptable.

  34. fuzzy muppet says:

    The more I think about this, the more I think a trade is happening. Perron/Ganger and Petry for ???

    I think a clump of my hair just fell out.

  35. speeds says:

    I don’t understand how MacT can talk about value in his recent press appearances and sign this deal today?

    That is the kind of deal you can MAYBE justify on July 6 when few D remain, having signed no one & needing D,not before the market even opens.

  36. fuzzy muppet says:

    speeds,

    Agreed. This is not a sound strategy. Should have locked up his own guys first…EVERYONE’s price just went up.

  37. su_dhillon says:

    Overpaying for shorter term is a fine strategy, makes a lot of sense considering the Oil have a lot of young D bubbling under the surface. But paying basically the full price on a 3 year deal in 2 years isn’t the way you do it, thats just dumb.

    He made under 3 last year got HSd in the playoffs and played mostly soft comp, an over payment for 2 years would be 3.5 maybe 3.75 and that would be really pushing it.

    This? This just makes me question how in the fuck they grade players because its clear at that price they see him playing a top 3 role but apparently hes only capable of that for 2 years and then there’s no telling what he will be but they obviously think there isa probability that he falls off a cliff.

  38. Botts182 says:

    LT,

    I like the signing but this:

    ****A veteran top pairing defenseman. A real man, big time EV minutes and a history of successful sorties. Update: Nikita Nikitin is the solution. ****

    I sure hope not, you would think MacT has a plan to bring a top pairing (or close to) puck mover. I would consider the Nikitin signing a depth signing.

  39. gcw_rocks says:

    If Nikitin is the answer to your top pairing defender gap we should be worried. My view was always that they needed two or three defenders so I am not worried yet.

    But, in no rationale scenario is Nikitin a top pairing defender.

  40. leadfarmer says:

    If you liked Nick Schultz’s up the boards and out play you will really love Nikitin.

  41. fuzzy muppet says:

    leadfarmer,

    Lets not go that far. He’s better than NS.

    The $ is really starting to bug me now. Especially compared to what Hainsey(a far better player) just signed for.

    YIKES

  42. leadfarmer says:

    Nikitin just had his lunch taken by Savard age 23 and Prout age 24. He is Frasers replacement, or maybe 3rd pairing dman.

  43. fuzzy muppet says:

    Rob Tychkowski ‏@Sun_Tychkowski 1m

    Historically, mediocre free agents don’t make bad teams better, bad teams make mediocre free agents worse.

  44. Caramel Obvious says:

    gcw_rocks:
    If Nikitin is the answer to your top pairing defender gap we should be worried.My view was always that they needed two or three defenders so I am not worried yet.

    But, in no rationale scenario is Nikitin a top pairing defender.

    I agree with GCW for a change. This is a good signing but it isn’t the complete solution. Now, the Oilers were never going to get a #1 defender. That’s impossible. So the only solution is D by committee. In order for that to work you have to have a committee. Nikitin is fine as part of the committee but they to add another guy at least as good.

    Pairings in no particular order:

    Nikitin-xxxxx
    Marincin–Petry
    Klefbom–Schultz
    Ference

    That’s the Dcorps they need. It is also the best possible outcome of the offseason.

  45. Lowetide says:

    Botts182:
    LT,

    I like the signing but this:

    ****A veteran top pairing defenseman. A real man, big time EV minutes and a history of successful sorties. Update: Nikita Nikitin is the solution. ****

    I sure hope not, you would think MacT has a plan to bring a top pairing (or close to) puck mover. I would consider the Nikitin signing a depth signing.

    I hope so, but until proven otherwise I’ll assume Nikitin is the Oilers’ solution.

  46. Caramel Obvious says:

    speeds:
    I don’t understand how MacT can talk about value in his recent press appearances and sign this deal today?

    That is the kind of deal you can MAYBE justify on July 6 when few D remain, having signed no one & needing D,not before the market even opens.

    I think you are far too sanguine of the deals that will be available on July 6th. The very real danger the Oilers faced was signing no one. It’s going to happen to teams this year.

    This deal has almost no downside.

    1) The Oilers won’t be a cap team this year. So the salary has no opportunity cost for this year.
    2) The Oilers may or may not be a cap team next year, but I doubt it. So probably no opportunity cost next year.
    3) So no opportunity cost to the deal.
    4) Nikitin is better than what they have. He’s their fourth best D at minimum right now. Maybe 3rd depending on how you rate Schultz.
    5) What’s not to like?

  47. Kitchener says:

    Other than the overpay’s potential impact on other negotiations (Jultz, Petry, Yak), this is an unmitigated cause for relief.

    28 yrs old, 6’4, 220lbs… Almost sounds like Smid.

  48. leadfarmer says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Whats not to like is if I’m Petry or Schultz agent I want 6 mil a year and no less.

    He is better than N. Schultz in that he is bigger, younger and has a harder shot. Otherwise down the stretch in Columbus the two were very similar players.

  49. wintoon says:

    For months if not years posters on this site have been moaning about the Oilers lack of NHL calibre depth on the blue line. MacT goes out and signs a legit NHL D Man on a short term deal and all we hear is moaning about every aspect of the deal (term, dollars, where NN slots in on the depth chart).

    MacT is not a moron and I am sure he is still working toward signing Petry and Schultz. I am also confident that he is working on acquiring a top pairing D man. Unfortunately top pairing D don’t just show up on the roster because we want one. They are hard and expensive to acquire.

    Based on his track record to date I am fully prepared to cut him some slack on this. If someone is available MacT will find him and when he does the Oilers will be a greatly improved team.

    I guess I am a little bit more patient than others.

  50. Ca$h-Money! says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    That’s really not fair. Hainsey already played for Carolina. By all reports he liked it there, liked management, knew where he would fit, wanted to get a deal done. He didn’t have to be lured to the contract, he didn’t have to be convinced of anything.

    Look folks, the reality here is that the Oilers have to pay a premium to get players to play here. Furthermore, the type of players that have 15 teams calling them (Niskanen) won’t come here, regardless of dollars. Boyle won’t come here, even for 1 year @ $9 million. It won’t happen. Markov is off the market already now too.

    Stralman has apparently been offered $4 x $4 by the NYR: a team:

    1. he already plays for,
    2. went to the stanley cup final last year, and
    3. is in a far more appealing market.

    the oilers equivalency of that offer is $7 x 4. Fayne might be the only good guy left after that, before the step down into the Nikitins starts to happen, and even then there are a lot of question marks with Fayne, and a lot of risk.

    MacT needs to acquire Dmen who deserve to be in the top 6 on this team. He doesn’t want to trade his young talented forwards to do that (rightly or wrongly).

    His only available strategy is to overpay mediocre UFAs. And when I say overpay, I don’t mean it in the sense that most UFAs are overpaid… I mean overpaying even relative to that. That’s why signing 5 UFAs is unlikely, because then we’d be overpaying 5 guys. It’s also why not inking guys for 5 years is ideal, because the only way we will ever become an elite team is if 3 of Klefbom/Marincin/Schultz/Nurse become the players we’re hoping they can be.

  51. Rondo says:

    I wonder if Nikita could have done better in free agency, my guess is no. Columbus did well getting a 5th. How is a guy playing sheltered minutes in the eastern conference with a great goalie going to do in the western conference ?

  52. Kitchener says:

    This guy is a 99% lock to be dealt at either of the next two trade deadlines. Today’s signing should really be headlined as “4.5 x 2 for Nikitin, plus a 2nd or 3rd rounder in 2015/6″

    The only question is, “when are Nurse/Simpson/etc. ready?” This move buys the kids time, which is exactly what the doctor ordered.

  53. Hockey News: Pens Hire New Coach; Lightning Sign Callahan says:

    […] Apparently, the Oilers feel that overpaying Nikita Nikitin will help solve their defensive woes. [Lowetide] […]

  54. SK Oiler Fan says:

    4.5 M?? for a third pairing guy? He made 2.1M per on his last contract, WTF has he done to deserve over double that? All reports and stats say he’s been trending downward for 2 years now. Why does MacT feel he needs to replace N Shultz, Fraser, or Belov for 4.5M?
    Someone mentioned it above, but where do Schultz and Petry contracts slot in now?

    What is with the Oiler’s obsession with Dmen who are considered stay at home or shutdown? To me, that means they spend most of their shifts in their own end, have mobility issues, have limited puck skills, and struggle to retrieve the puck and turn it North.

  55. flyfish1168 says:

    JMHO This may not sit well with Schultz and Petty. They now may ask for more and cloud the the future 3 years out. i don’t mind Petty getting more since he has signed for reasonable money prior and has proven he is capable. But Schultz maybe a problem.

    I hope Nikita can help make Yak feel better having a comrade that may understand him better. JMHO

  56. Caramel Obvious says:

    leadfarmer:
    Caramel Obvious,

    Whats not to like is if I’m Petry or Schultz agent I want 6 mil a year and no less.

    He is better than N. Schultz in that he is bigger, younger and has a harder shot.Otherwise down the stretch in Columbus the two were very similar players.

    What possible effect could this signing have on those negotiations? They have nothing to do with each other.

    If their agent tried to bring up Nikitin in negotiations I would patiently and condescendingly explain the difference between a UFA and a RFA. But this would never happen because no agent would embarrass themselves by doing that. The comparables for Petry and Schultz are other RFA signings. Point. Full Stop.

  57. Caramel Obvious says:

    flyfish1168:
    JMHOThis may not sit well with Schultz and Petty. They now may ask for more and cloud the the future 3 years out. i don’t mind Petty getting more since he has signed for reasonable money prior and has proven he is capable. But Schultz maybe a problem.

    I hope Nikita can help make Yak feel better having a comrade that may understand him better. JMHO

    This is completely ridiculous. Players understand that guys on RFA contracts get less. If they don’t, their agent explains it to them in between feeding them their peas.

  58. fuzzy muppet says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    They absolutely have to do with each other. You’re going to BUY FA years. WHich now will cost MORE than 4.5 $. If you don’t, well congrats, you have two defenseman that are disgruntled by being low-balled.

    This has trouble written all over it

  59. blainer says:

    Caramel Obvious: I think you are far too sanguine of the deals that will be available on July 6th.The very real danger the Oilers faced was signing no one.It’s going to happen to teams this year.

    This deal has almost no downside.

    1) The Oilers won’t be a cap team this year.So the salary has no opportunity cost for this year.
    2) The Oilers may or may not be a cap team next year, but I doubt it.So probably no opportunity cost next year.
    3) So no opportunity cost to the deal.
    4) Nikitin is better than what they have.He’s their fourth best D at minimum right now.Maybe 3rd depending on how you rate Schultz.
    5) What’s not to like?

    agreed. I have a feeling MacT is running with the kids on this. I have little worries about Marincin…Not sure about Nurse and Klef. Time will tell. I believe they are drafting Draisaitl whether Ekblad is there or not.

  60. Ducey says:

    leadfarmer: Caramel Obvious, Whats not to like is if I’m Petry or Schultz agent I want 6 mil a year and no less.He is better than N. Schultz in that he is bigger, younger and has a harder shot. Otherwise down the stretch in Columbus the two were very similar players.

    They are RFA’s. NN was a UFA.

    I am sure Katz is thrilled that the fanbase wants to save him some money every signing, but the reality is that UFA’s almost always get overpaid. Bad teams in Canada have to overpay even more.

    Good defenseman are in very high demand. Giving up a 5th and a short term overpay beats overpaying in terms of players, picks and prospects.

  61. Jordan says:

    So… If I understand this correctly, the Oilers effectively traded N. Schultz for a two-year extension of Nikita Nikitin.

    I like this more now?

    I wonder what kind of effect this has on Yakupov? Mentorship, maybe?

    Edit: Also, according to Neilson1260, he can play both the left & right side.

  62. Hammers says:

    Straight to comments so not sure what others said . Good signing and term . Dollars not that important as Marincin & Klefbom are low $$$ . 2 years from now we have Nurse + perhaps Simpson / Musil / Gernat to come . McT wasn’t getting a top “D” ( unless Phanuef in trade ) and this deal gives us 2 years of growth for the young guns . He will play a 3-4 role I think . Remember people all of a sudden guys like Hainsey are staying put so this maybe our only pick up . Good Job .

  63. Jon K says:

    Well it’s clearly an overpay, but the term makes it an astute overpay, if such a thing exists.

    Two years is just enough time to give Kelfbom, Marincin and Nurse the developmental buffer they need.

    I’d be very surprised if we see another move related to the defense before the draft. If Ekblad falls to the Oilers I can’t see them passing on him. If they draft him he’ll play next year.

    Marincin-Petry
    Nikitin-Schultz
    Ference-Ekblad
    #7 (Fraser or equivalent)

    I don’t think it’s possible to make the playoffs with that defense, still.

  64. bensuthy says:

    I like this trade it gives Nurse/Klefbom time to mature with another season in OKC. However I was reading that Nikitin was a healthy scratch in place of Nick Schultz during the last legs of Columbuses season. If that is true, why evan get rid of Schultz.

  65. Ducey says:

    speeds: I don’t understand how MacT can talk about value in his recent press appearances and sign this deal today?That is the kind of deal you can MAYBE justify on July 6 when few D remain, having signed no one & needing D,not before the market even opens.

    What are the odds that any UFA defenseman are going to sign with EDM? I don’t think we need to wait until July 6 to find out, do we? In fact, its likely that NN isn’t there on July 6th either.

    If I am wrong, and the Oilers are able to sign another UFA defenseman, then they will add 2 new actual NHL defenseman. How is that a problem?

  66. Hammers says:

    leadfarmer: Am I the only one that thinks third pairing defenseman should be paid 2.0 mil or less.

    Looks like it . Term is the key not $$$ .

  67. Ducey says:

    bensuthy: I like this trade it gives Nurse/Klefbom time to mature with another season in OKC. However I was reading that Nikitin was a healthy scratch in place of Nick Schultz during the last legs of Columbuses season. If that is true, why evan get rid of Schultz.

    It says here NN was injured for 6 of the last 7 games with a lower body injury:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=4713

  68. RT26 says:

    I like the signing, provided this does not mean we’re done with reinforcing the defense.

    Go get Phaneuf. Then run:

    Phaneuf -Petry
    Marincin-Nikitin (I thought he could play both sides)
    Ference -Schultz
    Klefbom

    Miles better than where we were.

  69. Hammers says:

    Ca$h-Money!: fuzzy muppet, That’s really not fair. Hainsey already played for Carolina. By all reports he liked it there, liked management, knew where he would fit, wanted to get a deal done. He didn’t have to be lured to the contract, he didn’t have to be convinced of anything.Look folks, the reality here is that the Oilers have to pay a premium to get players to play here. Furthermore, the type of players that have 15 teams calling them (Niskanen) won’t come here, regardless of dollars. Boyle won’t come here, even for 1 year @ $9 million. It won’t happen. Markov is off the market already now too. Stralman has apparently been offered $4 x $4 by the NYR: a team: 1. he already plays for,2. went to the stanley cup final last year, and3. is in a far more appealing market. the oilers equivalency of that offer is $7 x 4. Fayne might be the only good guy left after that, before the step down into the Nikitins starts to happen, and even then there are a lot of question marks with Fayne, and a lot of risk.MacT needs to acquire Dmen who deserve to be in the top 6 on this team. He doesn’t want to trade his young talented forwards to do that (rightly or wrongly). His only available strategy is to overpay mediocre UFAs. And when I say overpay, I don’t mean it in the sense that most UFAs are overpaid… I mean overpaying even relative to that. That’s why signing 5 UFAs is unlikely, because then we’d be overpaying 5 guys. It’s also why not inking guys for 5 years is ideal, because the only way we will ever become an elite team is if 3 of Klefbom/Marincin/Schultz/Nurse become the players we’re hoping they can be.

    Totally agree . Don’t forget M.Green just resigned and for more than most here thought .

  70. su_dhillon says:

    Tyler vs Steve Simmons. So Fucking Good!
    http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/Dellow.mp3

  71. misfit says:

    There was a fake report yesterday saying he signed for $4M/year for 2 years. I thought that was an overpay, but could live with it on account of the term. Now they beat that already high number by a cool half million per season. I can still live with it because I have to, but that’s simply way too much money for a player of Nikitin’s calibre.

    Our defense is better today than it was yesterday…so there’s that.

  72. fuzzy muppet says:

    Hammers,

    Well I agree that I’d take the NN contract over the Greene contract everyday of the week

  73. Caramel Obvious says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    Caramel Obvious,

    They absolutely have to do with each other. You’re going to BUY FA years.WHich now will cost MORE than 4.5 $.If you don’t, well congrats, you have two defenseman that are disgruntled by being low-balled.

    This has trouble written all over it

    First, you don’t have to give them longterm contracts.

    Second, if you do, I have no idea what makes you think this contract changes the amount you’d have to pay.

    Third, the low-balled comment is totally out of leftfield. I have no idea why you think this contract means they’ve been low-balled. Offering them less than Nikitin is not low balling them. It’s giving them their value. If they think they’ve been low-balled that’s their problem.

    Fourth, if they think they’ve been low-balled it won’t be because of this signing. IIt will be because they compare themselves to their actual comparables, guys like Cody Fransom, Jared Cowen, Chris Tanev, TJ Brodie, Carl Gunnarsson, RFAs who signed contracts last offseason.

    That’s where you need to look to price Petry and Schultz. Nikitin’s contract is as irrelevant as Shea Weber’s.

  74. Hammers says:

    Ducey: What are the odds that any UFA defenseman are going to sign with EDM? I don’t think we need to wait until July 6 to find out, do we? In fact, its likely that NN isn’t there on July 6th either.If I am wrong, and the Oilers are able to sign another UFA defenseman, then they will add 2 new actual NHL defenseman. How is that a problem?

    I’m liking that people are using LOGIC not emotion on this decision . I also see one more “D” coming Maybe via a trade as the UFA market will definitely be by overpay . It just goes with the territory .

  75. Zack says:

    How is he in comparison to Smid?

  76. fuzzy muppet says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Fair Point.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Zack:
    How is he in comparison to Smid?

    Not really a fair compairson. Smid was a much better player a year ago than he is now, I’d bet on him getting back to his previous levels. Right now? I take Nikitin.

  78. PunjabiOil says:

    I can buy the argument that it may impact Petry’s ask for his UFA years (clock tickets in 1 year).

    But Schultz?

    Oilers control his rights for 4 years before he becomes a UFA.

  79. Ben says:

    Anyone else here give Malone $3mil x 1?

  80. RexLibris says:

    According to capgeek the Oilers now have a shade under $22 million.

    Petry at maybe $4.5 million, Schultz probably a bridge deal somewhere in the range of $4 million, let’s say, for the sake of argument.

    That leaves between $12-13 million to chase free agents like Kulemin, Winnik, Moss and/or Grabovski.

    Some interesting things could yet happen.

  81. RexLibris says:

    Zack:
    How is he in comparison to Smid?

    LT doesn’t have a Nikitin voodoo doll.

  82. LMHF#1 says:

    su_dhillon:
    Tyler vs Steve Simmons. So Fucking Good!
    http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/Dellow.mp3

    This is quite funny at the point of the Bolland discussion. You do wonder to what extent Simmons is playing a character and knows it – but I do believe you have to start speaking about the fact that many of the smartest people when it comes to hockey are not actually involved in it for a living. The “must have played in the NHL” part of the experience requirement in the job posting seems to dictate that.

    I don’t agree with a lot of what Tyler says generally as we have a very different take on the game, but acting as though the stats don’t contribute to the conversation is flat incorrect, and it he’s right in stating that owners should be looking at their GMs and asking why they’re out there spending all that money on “eye glow” or whatever we’ve decided to call it. The skepticism should not be placed on Tyler when it comes to Grabovski, it should be placed on people like Carlyle and the GMs that wouldn’t sign him. Acting like no GM wanted him was also wrong from Simmons – Grabovski had a bunch of buy-out money and could pretty much do exactly as he pleased. A one year deal makes perfect sense if you believe in yourself and have financial security.

  83. RexLibris says:

    su_dhillon:
    Tyler vs Steve Simmons. So Fucking Good!
    http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/Dellow.mp3

    Great back and forth about Grabovski. I hope the Oilers sign him and he thrives just to prove Simmons wrong. This guy doesn’t seem to understand the thought process involved in advanced analytics.

  84. alice13 says:

    But Bolland scored the goal!
    Sorry, scored the Winning goal.In the very last minute!

    They’re bigger goals than the other kind, so that’s obviously why Chicago kept him, er…. what??

  85. Logan91 says:

    Ben:
    Anyone else here give Malone $3mil x 1?

    Does that deal come with a big bag of cocaine included in bonuses?

  86. Ben says:

    Logan91,

    Meh. I’ve met lots of NHL players. Not too many mormon saints among them.

    Maybe Malone’s a Sather-ish move – kind of like bringing in MacT in 85.

  87. alice13 says:

    Listening to SS on the goal put me in mind of Spinal Tap:

    “The volume, it goes to eleven!”

  88. Rocknrolla says:

    Look out, competent GMing ahead! Kind if refreshing, no? MacT is really growing on me.

    Went after guy before free agency. Smart & Strategic.

    Targeted who he wanted. No doubt used Howsons expertise, but saw a hole and found a fit. Smart again.

    Didn’t sign him for 6 years, Oilers need a stop gap. 2years is Smart.

    Overpayed to get it done, but we have 25 mil in space .

    Lots of cap space and in 2 years we have 5 new young D arriving. I like it. Just hope he’s as good as Mac thinks he is!

    This ain’t no Tambo maneuver folks.

  89. TheGreatMutato says:

    RexLibris,

    That was good fun =)

    Any argument on a player that starts with “throw your stats out the window” is destined to ignore a great deal of what said argument should be based on. Arguing with Steve Simmonds on a player’s objective contribution is about as useful as arguing with Steven Williams on climate change’s objective existence. “If you ignore the data, you have no argument!!!” Assholes.

  90. Gerta Rauss says:

    I’m OK with this signing. My biggest worry is that NN is the showcase acquisition for the summer…we need at least 1 more NHL D, 2 would be better.

    The dollars are an overpay but the term mitigates any downside. Capgeek doesn’t show any NTC/NMC so we can move him at the trade deadline in ’16 and get an asset for him.

    Hainsey’s name was mentioned earlier…Hainsey got his $9M(well, almost)…I would rather have NN for 2 years than Hainsey for 3.

  91. misfit says:

    So of the two adds MacT was looking to make, which one does he perceive Nikitin to be? The puck mover or the “Mark Fraser-type”? To me, he’s neither, but I worry they see him as the former.

  92. hoser313 says:

    Ben:
    Anyone else here give Malone $3mil x 1?

    I don’t think the Oilers would be interested. But from my perspective, the real issue is – can he still skate?

    Slow in the Eastern Conference is even slower in the Western Conference.

  93. Rondo says:

    Interesting to compare Belov vs Nikitin when they played together in KHL 2012-13

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0050162013.html

  94. Lowetide says:

    misfit:
    So of the two adds MacT was looking to make, which one does he perceive Nikitin to be?The puck mover or the “Mark Fraser-type”?To me, he’s neither, but I worry they see him as the former.

    He’s the puck mover, for sure. Nikitin isn’t used in that role in CBJ, but his boxcars may improve in EDM if he gets PP time back.

  95. Rocknrolla says:

    Truth:
    Realistically this is should be looked at as a depth signing that pushes Klefbom and/or Marincin down to the AHL.Should MacT be comfortable with a top 4 of Petry, Nikitin, Schultz, Ference?I’m not.

    I play it safe and count on Marincin and Klefbom performing to at a lesser level than they played last season.If you count on them to be regular NHL defencemen you may have lost the season already.Also safe to assume one defenceman injured at all times throughout the season.

    Player to be acquired– Petry

    Player to be signed – Nikitin/Ference

    Ference/Nikitin – Schultz

    Marincin

    Nailed it. This is sound…not easy but sound.

  96. Kitchener says:

    Several threads ago, someone aptly posted something like, “the danger isn’t that MacT overpays the wrong players, it’s that he reaches training camp with tons of cap space and no new players signed.”

    Excluding Gazdic’s two 10lb fists, Nikitin is now the biggest Oiler. Nikitin may not be an Ace/Queen/Jack, but he’s exactly what we need: a 28-year old real NHL player.

    “Don’t let great get in the way of good.” This signing is good news. Until Shea Weber demands a trade to Edmonton, I’ll take good news all offseason.

  97. Jon K says:

    One of the things we should keep in mind regarding Nikitin is that he has a very good slapshot and a passable one-timer. A point shot has been missing from the Oilers powerplay for some time, and I think we can reasonably infer that he will see some time on the second or even first powerplay units.

    If that’s the case, we might see his counting numbers reach a level where the furor over his cap hit dies down.

  98. LMHF#1 says:

    Truth:
    Realistically this is should be looked at as a depth signing that pushes Klefbom and/or Marincin down to the AHL.Should MacT be comfortable with a top 4 of Petry, Nikitin, Schultz, Ference?I’m not.

    I play it safe and count on Marincin and Klefbom performing to at a lesser level than they played last season.If you count on them to be regular NHL defencemen you may have lost the season already.Also safe to assume one defenceman injured at all times throughout the season.

    Player to be acquired– Petry

    Player to be signed – Nikitin/Ference

    Ference/Nikitin – Schultz

    Marincin

    In that scenario, Ference is your #7, not Marincin. That’s how it should be, but won’t be.

  99. Oilanderp says:

    Is there anything in the math which suggests that a return to his performance 2 years ago is likely?

    Even if not, I like the term of this signing as it should give the kids some development time.

  100. pboy says:

    Anytime you can improve your team, you need to do it. Nikitin is an improvement on Belov, Schultz and Fraser. Nikitin isn’t going to be our version of Doughty, Keith or Weber but he makes the back end of the Oiler’s better than it was last season. More improvements to come. Good 1st step for MacT this summer. MacT has improved this team by subtraction so far, now he needs to be diligent about his additions. The Summer of MacT baby! I hope……

  101. mumbai max says:

    LT. I have concern over the following statement of your’s

    ……’but concerned that once again the club has failed to address that top pairing in any way.’

    I do not think they have FAILED to do anything, they have just done a different thing. If they had signed a top pairing defenceman it would be 6 m a year, not 4.5. If they had signed a winger, they would not have failed to sign a first pairing defenceman, they would have signed a winger. Same applies here. They have signed a second pairing (fingers crossed) defenceman.

    I think we should see this as a bonus item for your summer list and NOT stroke off the first line item yet.

    What say ye?

  102. mumbai max says:

    Probably I have missed someone else saying this, but another way to look at this, since it is the same pick, is this was a trade of N Shultz for Nikitin. Nice trade.

  103. Lowetide says:

    mumbai max:
    LT. I have concern over the following statement of your’s

    ……’but concerned that once again the club has failed to address that top pairing in any way.’

    I do not think they have FAILED to do anything, they have just done a different thing. If they had signed a top pairing defenceman it would be 6 m a year, not 4.5. If they had signed a winger, they would not have failed to sign a first pairing defenceman, they would have signed a winger. Same applies here. They have signed a second pairing (fingers crossed) defenceman.

    I think we should see this as a bonus item for your summer list and NOT stroke off the first line item yet.

    What say ye?

    If they get a top pairing guy AND Nikitin? Music!

  104. TheOtherJohn says:

    Is it possible that the Oilers want to exercise their compliance buyout rights and signed Nikitin and then buy him out later this week?

  105. book¡je says:

    I like the signing, but I think context is very important in understanding it.

    The 3/4 spots on defence have been weak for a long time. Whenever Tambellini went searching to fill these positions, he started with a price in mind – a second pairing defenseman will cost $2.5 to $3.5 per season. Then he went to the marketplace and found it impossible to find a decent d-man for that price (because playing in Edmonton sucks right now). So, his response was to lower his standards and take on decaying d-men or damaged goods at the set price. In the end, he ended up with 6/7 type d-men and played them above their ability. The results were predictably poor.

    In facing the same situation, MacT decided to maintain his quality standard and accept that he has to pay more to FAs to come to Edmonton.

    Hopefully MacT’s strategy works and in a couple of years, the Oilers won’t have to pay a premium for players to come here.

  106. slambanna says:

    I like to cherry pick stats so here we go:

    NN 2011-12 with CBJ GP-54 G-7 A-25 P-32 with the corgi’s to back it up.

    Those look like the numbers of a 4.5m D to me.

    Since then we have had a lock out shortened season (missed last 4 games with lower body injury) + last year when he dressed for 66 games and missed time again with a lower body injury.

    He was NOT a HS in the playoffs. He is not Ladislav Smid. He is not a top 2 D.

    I would just like to entertain the idea that he could possibly rebound and actually play up to his cap hit.

    He is 28 years old and just 3 seasons ago looked to easily be a legit #3 D. The Oilers have had a horrid history with reclamation projects but Scott Howson likely knows this player better than anyone currently outside of Columbus.

    I may be dreaming here… but I’d like to know how much his last season was affected by injury.

  107. speeds says:

    Ducey: What are the odds that any UFA defenseman are going to sign with EDM?I don’t think we need to wait until July 6 to find out, do we?In fact, its likely that NN isn’t there on July 6th either.

    Pretty good. People act like it’s impossible for EDM to sign D, they signed Ference, Grebeshkov and Belov last summer.

    Nikitin specifically might be signed, but someone is pretty likely to still be around a few days into UFA. I don’t know that I’ve seen a year where everyone was signed by then. Could it happen? I suppose so, I wouldn’t count on it though.

    Ducey: If I am wrong, and the Oilers are able to sign another UFA defenseman, then they will add 2 new actual NHL defenseman.How is that a problem?

    Depth is a good thing, but if they overpay Nikitin by 1M per year, and another D by 1M per year, that’s 2M that could have been applied elsewhere for a roster upgrade. I understand that not spending the money doesn’t help the team either;I think it was a bit early to be committing to an overpay but I understand the impulse to make sure they have someone under contract.

  108. rickithebear says:

    slopitch:
    I agree. I dont think this cancels #1 on the list but I’m not sure how easy that one is gonna be to solve.

    LT would drafting Ekblad solve #1 on your list? Or are you talking only about 2014-15?

    He plays 2nds

    13-14
    Was used last year to protect a young Dman.
    1.63 EVGA/60 Dman facing 3rds

    Played 2nds with Prout
    1.35 EVGA/60

    Played 1st with Wizniewski
    1.61 EVGA/60

    12-13
    Played 1sts with Tyutin
    2.74 EVGA/60

    Played 1st/2nd with Prout
    0.68 EVGA/60

    11-12
    Played 1st with tyutin J. Johnson
    2.19 EVGA/60

    Played 2nds with Lebda/A. Johnson
    4.46 EVGA/60

    Ekblad?
    WTF?

    Might want to check EVGA/60 for top 20 drafted Dmen in there 1st year.

  109. Pouzar says:

    @Bob_Stauffer
    Oilers Senior VP of Hockey OP’s Scott Howson “we see Nikita as a top 4 defenceman…and we are still looking for another D”

  110. denny33 says:

    Corey Pronman, ESPN: He went from good, to average, to poor in the last 3 seasons. He was a good player to help youngsters few years ago, but now he ***needs help***

    *****************************************************************************************
    Can’t figure out why people think this is a good move……not saying it is a bad move. Is it not just
    a replacement for Belov?

    Strikes me as a switching of a deck chair…we have a blue one now instead of a red one. ( Belov)

    Unless people think our biggest need is 3rd pairing Defenceman?

    *******************************************************************************
    Completely agree with what LT said in January – this guy falls Well Short of being a
    proven top pairing guy …..

  111. Pouzar says:

    Stauffer says via Oilers TV that the Oilers will be looking for a shutdown D for the third pairing at around 1.5M-2.5M

    Says there won’t be another 4M+ D for the Oil.

  112. speeds says:

    Caramel Obvious: I think you are far too sanguine of the deals that will be available on July 6th.The very real danger the Oilers faced was signing no one.It’s going to happen to teams this year.

    This deal has almost no downside.

    1) The Oilers won’t be a cap team this year.So the salary has no opportunity cost for this year.
    2) The Oilers may or may not be a cap team next year, but I doubt it.So probably no opportunity cost next year.
    3) So no opportunity cost to the deal.
    4) Nikitin is better than what they have.He’s their fourth best D at minimum right now.Maybe 3rd depending on how you rate Schultz.
    5) What’s not to like?

    I like that the deal is shorter term.

    The opportunity cost is the other players you could potentially have signed with similar money. It’s not a guarantee that D like Gilbert and Hainsey will be available into Sept like last year, but it’s possible D reasonably similar to Niktin will be available a week or two into UFA.

    I understand the argument that it’s nice to have someone signed heading to UFA, that now if you happen to strike out at least you got someone, I just think EDM paid a high price to feel certain.

  113. TheGreatMutato says:

    Pouzar:
    Stauffer says via Oilers TV that the Oilers will be looking for a shutdown D for the third pairing at around 1.5M-2.5M

    Says there won’t be another 4M+ D for the Oil.

    Saving cap room for that inevitable Subban offer sheet ;-)

  114. Caramel Obvious says:

    speeds,

    I see your viewpoint too. I just know that if I was looking for a house and my choice was between waiting until next month and maybe getting a better deal or a slightly nicer house, but also maybe being homeless, I’d buy the house in front of me.

    Over a 1000 iterations this might not be the smart move value wise. However, over one iteration it is rational to avoid the worst case scenario.

  115. freedomisamyth says:

    leadfarmer:
    Am I the only one that thinks third pairing defenseman should be paid 2.0 mil or less.

    Haha good luck. The only defensemen who get paid 2.0 mil or less are 7th defensemen, or entry level contracts (barring a few exceptions where a guy broke out after signing a tiny contract).

  116. rickithebear says:

    denny33:
    Corey Pronman, ESPN: He went from good, to average, to poor in the last 3 seasons. He was a good player to help youngsters few years ago, but now he ***needs help***

    *****************************************************************************************
    Can’t figure out why people think this is a good move……not saying it is a bad move. Is it not just
    a replacement for Belov?

    Strikes me as a switching of a deck chair…we have a blue one now instead of a red one. ( Belov)

    Unless people thinkour biggest need is 3rd pairing Defenceman?

    *******************************************************************************
    Completely agree with what LT said in January – this guy falls Well Short of being a
    proven top pairing guy …..

    So pronman thinks:

    1.61 EVGA/60 versus 1st

    1.35EVGA/60 facing 2nds

    1.63 EVGA/60 facing 3rds
    protecting a young Dmanwho was 2.25 EVGA/60 facing 3rds.

    Pronman:

    Could not be the scouting Pronman!

  117. Caramel Obvious says:

    Assuming no magic Gagner for Josi trade, and taking Stauffer at his word this means that the D looks something like:

    Marincin–Petry
    Ference–Nikitin
    Klefbom–Schultz
    cheap UFA

    I think we all know that isn’t good enough. They better get some good forwards.

    That said, this team was never going to get good through free agents or trades. Everything rides on Hopkins being as good as lowetide thinks (he isn’t), Yakupov scoring 30 goals, and J Schultz becoming something special.

    This die was cast a long time ago.

  118. HeavySig says:

    I think this signing is about what was available.

    Last year the Oilers came into camp with such illustirous talents as Larsen, Grebs and Belov – none of which were realistically top 6 D on any decent NHL team. You can assemble all the random, cast-off mediocrity you want for cheap and hope that one of them doesn’t suck too much or you can bridge the gap until your youngsters develop with actual proven NHL players.

    The overpay is balanced somewhat by the term and it gives the Oilers an actual NHL player to tide them over. I can live with it. It’s a hell of a lot better option than bringing in a bunch of guys you know aren’t worth spit.

  119. Caramel Obvious says:

    rickithebear,

    Does pushing that boulder up the hill ever get tiring?

  120. Rocknrolla says:

    su_dhillon:
    Tyler vs Steve Simmons. So Fucking Good!
    http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/Dellow.mp3

    It’s Gold Jerry, Gold!

  121. denny33 says:

    Pouzar,

    @Bob_Stauffer
    Oilers Senior VP of Hockey OP’s Scott Howson “we see Nikita as a top 4 defenceman…and we are still looking for another D”
    ****************************************************************************
    Can’t figure out why the NHL has accelerated the below timetable all of a sudden:

    The NHL is moving toward altering its draft lottery to help avoid teams earning the top overall pick on a repeated basis. (For) the league’s general mangers, meeting Wednesday at a hotel in Times Square during their annual Stanley Cup convocation … the key issue was the draft lottery system in the wake of the Edmonton Oilers securing the No. 1 pick in three straight years, from 2010 to 2012.”

  122. RexLibris says:

    Cullen has a nice article up at TSN regarding draft values.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=455673

    He puts a numerical value on the first round picks based on historical percentages of achievement from players chosen in that slot.

    Here is how he breaks down 1 through 5 (the picks that are most likely to affect the Oilers selections and decision-making, in my opinion) using this legend as a baseline (my emphasis added in bold):

    10 – Generational
    9 – Elite Player
    8 – First Line, Top Pair D
    7 – Top Six Forward, Top Four D
    6 – Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
    5 – NHL Regular
    4 – Fringe NHLer
    3 – Very Good Minor Leaguer
    2 – Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
    1 – 10 or fewer NHL games

    1st is 7.88, 2nd 7.78, 3rd, 7.00, 4th 6.13, 5th 6.68

    5th actually goes up, and not insignificantly, from 4th. Hey, the Flames may get screwed yet!

    Ideal situation for the Oilers is that Ekblad falls to 3, Draisaitl falls to 5 and they are able to acquire both. Only chance of that happening is if every other GM at the draft is drinking from the same tap as Mr. Snider.

  123. RexLibris says:

    denny33:
    Pouzar,

    @Bob_Stauffer
    Oilers Senior VP of Hockey OP’s Scott Howson “we see Nikita as a top 4 defenceman…and we are still looking for another D”
    ****************************************************************************
    Can’t figure out why the NHL has accelerated the below timetable all of a sudden:

    The NHL is moving toward altering its draft lottery to help avoid teams earning the top overall pick on a repeated basis. (For) the league’s general mangers, meeting Wednesday at a hotel in Times Square during their annual Stanley Cup convocation …the key issue was the draft lottery system in the wake of the Edmonton Oilers securing the No. 1 pick in three straight years, from 2010 to 2012.”

    First they install the coincidental minor rule, aka “the Gretzky/Kurri rule” and now they change the calculation for the draft. Nice to see the only remaining original WHA franchise is still giving the NHL fits. ;)

  124. rickithebear says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    rickithebear,

    Does pushing that boulder up the hill ever get tiring?

    Goals!
    Why use Goasl?.
    What do goals have to do with hockey?

    Forgive me.

    (Corsi-(blocks+misses)) X (1.000-SV%) = Goals

    I revert to Corsi the answer to Winning!

    Insert Corsi were you here oklahoma.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=RDINOeZnfUuIY&v=INOeZnfUuIY

    the corsi audience is a losing Battle!

  125. denny33 says:

    rickithebear,

    So pronman thinks:
    1.61 EVGA/60 versus 1st
    1.35EVGA/60 facing 2nds
    1.63 EVGA/60 facing 3rds
    protecting a young Dmanwho was 2.25 EVGA/60 facing 3rds.
    Pronman:
    Could not be the scouting Pronman!
    ****************************************************
    And Columbus scratched him because ….?

  126. speeds says:

    For the sake of argument:

    Nikitin-Stralman
    Marincin-Petry
    Ference-Schultz
    ???

    Is that enough of an upgrade, leaving some $$$ for F’s? Would EDM be better off allocating the money that would go to Stralman to F’s instead?

  127. Lowetide says:

    denny33:
    rickithebear,

    So pronman thinks:
    1.61 EVGA/60 versus 1st
    1.35EVGA/60 facing 2nds
    1.63 EVGA/60 facing 3rds
    protecting a young Dmanwho was 2.25 EVGA/60 facing 3rds.
    Pronman:
    Could not be the scouting Pronman!
    ****************************************************
    And Columbus scratched him because ….?

    I believe he was injured, not scratched.

  128. Caramel Obvious says:

    rickithebear,

    This has been explained to you many times. The issue is save/shooting percentage.

    Honest questions. When apportioning credit for save/shooting percentage who do you give it to?

    100 % points to be divided. a)shooter, b) goalie, c) defense.

    No one thinks that the defense should get 0%. The problem is that you are giving 100% credit to the D. That’s frankly crazy. The answer is a lot closer to 0 than it is to 100.

  129. Lois Lowe says:

    That Simmons rant is like listening to a “what not to do when trying to win an argument” segment.

    More volume?
    Appeal to authority?
    Argue from anecdotal evidence?
    Argue from historical performance?
    Straw man?

  130. Jordan says:

    RexLibris: First they install the coincidental minor rule, aka “the Gretzky/Kurri rule” and now they change the calculation for the draft. Nice to see the only remaining original WHA franchise is still giving the NHL fits.

    Ha. Somehow, I can’t help but think this is actually just the NHL deciding they need to be able to influence who gets the next generational talent, like they did in 2003.

    I’d think the smart money would be on Nashville, Arizona & Philly as good bets to end up with that 1st overall in 2015.

  131. Rondo says:

    denny33: chair

    It’s like shuffling deck chairs on the titanic

  132. Ducey says:

    denny33: Pouzar, @Bob_StaufferOilers Senior VP of Hockey OP’s Scott Howson “we see Nikita as a top 4 defenceman…and we are still looking for another D”****************************************************************************Can’t figure out why the NHL has accelerated the below timetable all of a sudden:The NHL is moving toward altering its draft lottery to help avoid teams earning the top overall pick on a repeated basis. (For) the league’s general mangers, meeting Wednesday at a hotel in Times Square during their annual Stanley Cup convocation … the key issue was the draft lottery system in the wake of the Edmonton Oilers securing the No. 1 pick in three straight years, from 2010 to 2012.”

    Don’t get fooled. This isn’t about the Oilers. This is about greedy bastards like Snider trying to figure out how to justify making the playoffs AND getting the first overall.

    If the NHL was a scene out of Its a Wonderful Life, Snider would be Mr. Potter and the Oilers would be the poor people that moved out to Bailey Park. Unfortunately, Bettman is no George Bailey.

  133. rickithebear says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    rickithebear,

    This has been explained to you many times.The issue is save/shooting percentage.

    Honest questions.When apportioning credit for save/shooting percentage who do you give it to?

    100 % points to be divided.a)shooter, b) goalie, c) defense.

    No one thinks that the defense should get 0%.The problem is that you are giving 100% credit to the D.That’s frankly crazy.The answer is a lot closer to 0 than it is to 100.

    Count how many shots Hit the goalie and how many are saved.

    A puck shot into the glove with the post contact arm swing is not the goalie saving the puck.

    At one time CBS showed the shots location in Elevation with a x/y location.
    with video of the shot.
    1. x,y location (distance)
    2. elevation x,y and hole
    3. hit or save. % actually affected by goalie.
    4. Need to add movement required.
    To understand what is acceptable affected rate per save movement!

    bob’s your uncle!

    PS I have often wondered why some goalie coaches recomend the glove held in an elevated north south position versus an east west.

    I often think the tought processs is the north south allows for a fast glove side area movement by wrist action instead of the east west arm swing.

    The mechanics of twisting the wrist is so much faster than the mechanics required to move an arm.

    Carmel>
    I would be inclined to think the 0% is much more about the goalie.
    set up a cut out of a goalie.
    hits versus saves.
    The blocks; misses; and distance are about the Dman.

  134. flyfish1168 says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    With my experience of negotiating and following PK Subans what you said is not how it works. Think of Miami Heat. They are now realizing they don’t have enough money to cope. Getting a better supporting cast will still cost you. The CAP is a fine balance between the team and players. Agents and people are greedy. Listen to yesterdays news what is happening in Calgary and how difficult it is to get good workers to work at a reasonable price. That is why we go for foreign and 3rd world country to find workers. Its the same everywhere. Agents are greedy and that is why some players don’t have agents anymore.

  135. PunjabiOil says:

    It is definitely concerning if they don’t upgrade the D, and add no more actual NHL defencemen. They need another top guy, preferably a top pairing guy which MacT for a while they wanted.

    If Bob Stauffer is suggesting there will be no more 4M plus defenceman coming in, and the Oilers are after a 1.5M-2.5M depth defenceman, then it’s concerning and troubling. And it will likely not be enough to make the playoffs.

    God….

  136. Caramel Obvious says:

    What in the world does “post hit arm swing” mean?

  137. wordbird says:

    Pouzar:
    Stauffer says via Oilers TV that the Oilers will be looking for a shutdown D for the third pairing at around 1.5M-2.5M

    Says there won’t be another 4M+ D for the Oil.

    So, welcome back Tom Gilbert? Made 900K last year, would a couple million per get it done?

  138. Caramel Obvious says:

    flyfish1168:
    Caramel Obvious,

    With my experience of negotiating and following PK Subans what you said is not how it works. Think of Miami Heat. They are now realizing they don’t have enough money to cope.Getting a better supporting cast will still cost you. The CAP is a fine balance between the team and players. Agents and people are greedy. Listen to yesterdays news what is happening in Calgary and how difficult it is to get good workers to work at a reasonable price. That is why we go for foreign and 3rd world country to find workers. Its the same everywhere.Agents are greedy and that is why some players don’t have agents anymore.

    There are too many non sequitors in that post to formulate a coherent reply. It could be a fun game to try and connect Nikitin to Petry to Subban to Lebron James to philipino fry cooks in Calgary.

  139. Caramel Obvious says:

    “I think we’re open to anything. We want a good player and Nikita is a good player. We’re targeting three or four other good players. Some are more defensive oriented, some are sort of all around guys so there is no specific criteria they have to meet, we just want a good NHL player.”

    That’s Howson, via Willis at oilersnation.

  140. Truth says:

    M

    Pouzar:
    Stauffer says via Oilers TV that the Oilers will be looking for a shutdown D for the third pairing at around 1.5M-2.5M

    Says there won’t be another 4M+ D for the Oil.

    And apparently the availability for seats at the season ticket upgrade event will be even greater next year!

    Columbus is crap and Nikitin plays big minutes, Columbus starts turning into a good team and Nikitin is in and out of the lineup as a healthy scratch. MacT makes the comment that he doesn’t want to add any players in the “middle” but wants one high end defenseman. Then he goes and picks up a fringe NHLer and the assistant GM makes the above statement today. This time next year we will looking at the very real possibility of McDavid as an Oiler.

  141. Logan91 says:

    Gaborik signs for 7 years with the Kings…….

  142. misfit says:

    Lowetide: He’s the puck mover, for sure. Nikitin isn’t used in that role in CBJ, but his boxcars may improve in EDM if he gets PP time back.

    Yeah, that’s what I’m worried about. I’m no scout, but I see Nikitin as a guy more in the realm of Sheldon Souray and Curtis Foster. Not a puck mover per se, but a canon of a shot that can help you on the powerplay. As far as MacT’s “someone to go north-south with the puck” comment, I don’t know if that’s a good way to describe Nikitin.

    He should definitely be on the powerplay, I have no issue with that. I would also expect him to be a fixture on the PK. But leading the rush and moving the puck up ice? Not what I would call a strength of his. Especially since he’s not the most nimble of players from what I recall. Good puck movers should be able to both pass and skate the puck up ice. Nikitin may have a great first pass (I really don’t know), but he’s not enough of a dual threat as a puck mover. With that said, I would expect he’d be paired up with Schultz or Petry for the most part (despite Stauffer’s insistence that he’s a RD), so he probably doesn’t have to be either.

  143. Ca$h-Money! says:

    To everyone suggesting we now need to add Stralman, it won’t happen.

    He’s been offered $4million for 4 years in New York
    That was the offer, he will likely get more.
    They just went to the cup finals
    New York is a premier world class city
    New York has an easy travel schedule.

    What would it take to get him to leave all that? Consider also that teams other than the oilers will be making offers.

    He won’t come here for less than 6.5 x 4, maybe 7. He’s not worth that.

    Baby steps. This is a good move. Now we trade for Boychuck.

  144. Derek says:

    Simple! So Simple!

    Games are won by goals, teams who score more goals always win!
    Top team in goal differential this year wins stanley cup! (Boston +84)
    Team with best shot based metric goes out in second round! (LA 57.3% CF close)

    Corsi guys! Come on!

    Fistric and Greene are top 20 DMEN IN ENTIRE LEAGUE!

    Something about numbers and loud noises!

  145. kooler says:

    Seems rich for a 2nd pairing D man, some think is a vaild payout……if your an UFA you now know who will give you cash to play. Has MacT set a bench mark most teams can’t hit come July 1st, great way to send a message. …we are open for business.

  146. G Money says:

    Nikitin:

    Pros:

    - Actual NHL D.
    - Solid Bottom 4 acquisition.
    - Puts a roadblock in front of Klefbom and Nurse for two years.
    - Decent fancy stats (pretty close to breakeven Corsi and CorsiRel)
    - Not Cam Barker.
    - The Oilers can live with the overpay, especially given the two-year term.
    - It’s Katz’s money, not yours.

    Cons:

    - Overpay: my calculated fair value: $2.7M. Add $0.5M for silly season, and $0.5M for Oiler premium, and 3 x $3.7M would have been my prediction. That means $0.7M was the overpay for the shorter term. Yes, it’s an overpay. Probably not worse than it’s going to take to get anyone else here.
    - He’ll be played Top 4 here (as per statements) and that can mean all sorts of bad things.

  147. Truth says:

    Logan91:
    Gaborik signs for 7 years with the Kings…….

    At just over Nikitin money. $4.875 M avg they (LeBrun) now say.

  148. commonfan14 says:

    Like shooting a hostage to prove you’re serious, giving $4.5 million to Nikitin proves to other UFAs that Edmonton is the place to go for big dollars this summer.

  149. Caramel Obvious says:

    Truth: At just over Nikitin money.$4.875 M avg they (LeBrun) now say.

    7 years. That’s surely relevant.

  150. Melman says:

    Logan91:
    Gaborik signs for 7 years with the Kings…….

    LA gets Gaborik for $4.8, TB get Callahan for $5.8 – see it’s not just the Oil who have to overpay. This is actually a nice example of how players can be willing to sign for less in exchange for playing for a winning organization. I’m sure having $47M in the bank also makes those decisions a little easier.

  151. Caramel Obvious says:

    G Money,

    I agree. I would have been much happier with 3×4 million. Even happier with 4 x 3.5 million. But this is better than nothing.

  152. kooler says:

    and we give up a 5th correct?

  153. RexLibris says:

    Lois Lowe:
    That Simmons rant is like listening to a “what not to do when trying to win an argument” segment.

    More volume?
    Appeal to authority?
    Argue from anecdotal evidence?
    Argue from historical performance?
    Straw man?

    You forgot a trick of media interviewers – timing.

    A motivated and experienced interviewer with an agenda can roughly predict the timing and rate of their respondent’s reply, and they will throw question after question at them (although some of them are closer to statements than questions) in effect cutting off the respondent at just a few syllables. The impression this is meant to give to the audience is that the respondent is stumbling over their words and, by virtue of their inability to form a reply, has no defense for their argument.

    It treats the interview process as a farce and insults the intelligence of the audience.

    Fox news and some political issues programs use this method often.

    Simmons does this to Dellow the moment that Dellow dares to question the wisdom of the Leafs in letting Grabovski go. He then pulls out a single event, marks it with a percentage and labels it as “your stat” because he has surreptitiously demarcated the conversation into a stats-vs-seen it confrontation.

    Full credit to Dellow for hanging in there, but I wouldn’t blame him if he decided not to return Simmons’ calls in the future.

  154. RexLibris says:

    Melman: LA gets Gaborik for $4.8, TB get Callahan for $5.8 – see it’s not just the Oil who have to overpay.This is actually a nice example of how players can be willing to sign for less in exchange for playing for a winning organization.I’m sure having $47M in the bank also makes those decisions a little easier.

    LA overpaid on term, Edmonton on cash.

    All things being equal, I prefer the Edmonton deal if only because I believe it is a better fit for the organization.

    Not comparing the players, Gaborik is a beautiful talent and Nikitin may not even be in the NHL once this next deal is done. But it buys time for the Oilers and the Kings could always deal an affordable winger if they need cap space.

  155. Jordan says:

    commonfan14:
    Like shooting a hostage to prove you’re serious, giving $4.5 million to Nikitin proves to other UFAs that Edmonton is the place to go for big dollars this summer.

    If this were a longer-term deal, I might agree.

    But it’s a 2 year deal. It’s purpose is to bridge time for the young D to season in the AHL and Juniors. You can argue about how effective you think he will be in his role, and there’s numbers and anecdotes on both sides. But what this does is provide a player for 2 years who’s a reasonable bet to fill those shoes until the D-prospects are ready.

    As long as they didn’t give him a NMC, they can still trade him at the deadline before he walks in the 2nd year, or maybe even this coming year, if he boosts his value & the prospects show enough progression to play regular minutes.

    Good use of money to fill a line-up hole.

  156. Ribs says:

    He’s big and can skate. Seems like a step in the right direction. Hope for the best.

  157. PunjabiOil says:

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug 8m

    Oilers to meet with Mark Fayne camp thursday. 27yrs 6-3 rh shut down guy. 6 -7 teams interested. Likely wants 4-5 yr deal.

    _______________

    Moneypuck. Too bad other teams adopt it as well.

    Encouraging though.

  158. RexLibris says:

    Eli Wallach dead at 98.

    Sail on, Tuco.

  159. RexLibris says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug 8m

    Oilers to meet with Mark Fayne camp thursday. 27yrs 6-3 rh shut down guy. 6 -7 teams interested. Likely wants 4-5 yr deal.

    _______________

    Moneypuck.Too bad other teams adopt it as well.

    Encouraging though.

    That would be a nice signing. It wouldn’t be the flashy move that some in the media want (I think some dream of Hall for Weber just for the newspaper sales it would create) but it would be a prudent, thoughtful acquisition.

    Dare we hope for so much?

  160. Reginald Cooper says:

    This contract won’t prevent the Oilers from doing anything else they want to do. Stop hand wringing over the money.

  161. russ99 says:

    Melman: LA gets Gaborik for $4.8, TB get Callahan for $5.8 – see it’s not just the Oil who have to overpay.This is actually a nice example of how players can be willing to sign for less in exchange for playing for a winning organization.I’m sure having $47M in the bank also makes those decisions a little easier.

    Agree. With revenues and thus the cap going up due to the Rogers TV deal, nobody’s signing cheap this year, at least not until August.

  162. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Eli Wallach dead at 98.

    Sail on, Tuco.

    It’s so sad. Love that guy. He’s like a member of the family.

  163. hoser313 says:

    One other thought:

    When I hear the name Nikita, am I the only one to think of this?

    http://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/22500000/Season-4-la-femme-nikita-22580877-586-595.jpg

  164. raventalon40 says:

    Nikitin.

    Fayne.

    Defensive Depth, NHL Players.
    :-)

  165. Pouzar says:

    hoser313: One other thought:When I hear the name Nikita, am I the only one to think of this?http://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/22500000/Season-4-la-femme-nikita-22580877-586-595.jpg

    No…but I can’t get that goddamn Elton John tune outta my head!

  166. mumbai max says:

    Lowetide: If they get a top pairing guy AND Nikitin? Music!

    I agree, but what I am arguing for is that ‘we’ un-scratch the first item on the summer list, since as it is worded, it has not been done.

  167. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: It’s so sad. Love that guy. He’s like a member of the family.

    Loved his scene with his brother in the monastery Good Bad and the Ugly.

    I’m glad he was honoured by the Academy in his lifetime.

    http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/jun/25/eli-wallach-dies-98-good-bad-ugly-star

    I’d forgotten he was in Mystic River.

    He had a long life and a great career. We can’t ask for anything more than that.

  168. nycoil says:

    I think we have to keep in mind that the cap is going up ~10%. If this were last year Nikitin would be making ~ $4M x 2. There is probably a $500K per season “Edmonton” factor in there, which we knew would be there. So, it’s really as if he were making $3.5M per. High? Yes, but not egregiously so and the good news is the term is only 2 years so this is a bridge to the arrival of Nurse, Gernat, Klefbom and co.The team has to get better at some point and Nikitin should be better than Nick Schultz. This is the life of a a team trying to crawl back to respectability.

    That said I am not a fan of what this deal implies. If NN is the only “high end” acquisition on the blue this summer, the only progress that can come is from the optimistic view that the young D will all improve next year. NN doesn’t push enough players down the pecking order. Petry, Marincin are still the top 2. Nikitin babysitting Schultz? Ference with ___?

    Nikitin gets $4.5M per and Ehrhoff makes $4M per (yes, with a lot more term). Just think how much better the above looks with Ehrhohh-Petry, Marincin-Nikitin, Ference-Schultz instead. Oh well.

  169. thejonrmcleod says:

    hoser313:
    One other thought:

    When I hear the name Nikita, am I the only one to think of this?

    http://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/22500000/Season-4-la-femme-nikita-22580877-586-595.jpg

    I think I remember Bruce McCurdy calling Nikita “La Femme Nikita” a couple of years ago.

  170. RexLibris says:

    Out of curiosity, but does any here recall if Tom Gilbert is a LD or a RD?

    He could be the fallback plan if they strike out on Fayne. Ramsay/Edmonton connections and all that.

    Hardly a top-four option, but a veteran player who can move the puck up the ice with NHL size.

    Adding Nikitin and Gilbert for this season, on short-term contracts, is better than Grebeshkov, Belov, and company from last year. Not enough to crack into the post-season, in all likelihood, but it would be a wise move for the short term.

    Heck, maybe they could even sign him now and flip him at the deadline for a 3rd round pick. Found money.

  171. Gerta Rauss says:

    RexLibris: Out of curiosity, but does any here recall if Tom Gilbert is a LD or a RD?

    Definitely a RD

    Fayne would be a nice add…I think the play is to add a RD, it’s just a question of what type.

    Personally I’d choose from the Boychuk/Polak/Michalek tree…established 2nd pairing guys, right hand shot, a little size and toughness, and short contracts.

  172. striker says:

    Fayne would be a wonderful add. Only problem is, other teams may be aware of his potential as well. A wonderful surprise if we land him. Might cost 3.5-4 mill on open market though.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2093041-nhl-defensemen-ready-to-become-top-pairing-players-in-2014-15/page/8

    https://twitter.com/robvollmanNHL/status/481543438760820736

  173. LMHF#1 says:

    Has anyone calculated out the tax situation across the league lately? I don’t buy the need for an Edmonton premium on its face – AB should be a low cost jurisdiction.

    Robinson Cano would have needed a contract more than $40 million richer than he got from Seattle to come even close in NY.

    I hope the braintrust is selling this, but based on their verbal and that gawd awful powerpoint from last year I’m not exactly optimistic.

  174. striker says:

    Sad news about Eli Wallach. I have great memories of growing up watching westerns with my uncle. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly was one of our favorites.

  175. striker says:

    LMHF#1: Has anyone calculated out the tax situation across the league lately? I don’t buy the need for an Edmonton premium on its face – AB should be a low cost jurisdiction.

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/blogs-and-comment/how-the-fiscal-cliff-might-give-canadian-nhl-teams-a-boost/

  176. HBomb says:

    RexLibris:
    Out of curiosity, but does any here recall if Tom Gilbert is a LD or a RD?

    He could be the fallback plan if they strike out on Fayne. Ramsay/Edmonton connections and all that.

    Hardly a top-four option, but a veteran player who can move the puck up the ice with NHL size.

    Adding Nikitin and Gilbert for this season, on short-term contracts, is better than Grebeshkov, Belov, and company from last year. Not enough to crack into the post-season, in all likelihood, but it would be a wise move for the short term.

    Heck, maybe they could even sign him now and flip him at the deadline for a 3rd round pick. Found money.

    Gilbert played top-pairing minutes in Florida with Brian Campbell last year.

    He’s ideally a second-pairing guy, but would arguably be the best blue-liner on the team if the Oilers brought him back.

    That being said, however…don’t rule out Gilbert hanging up the skates and moving onto other things in life.

  177. LMHF#1 says:

    striker: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/blogs-and-comment/how-the-fiscal-cliff-might-give-canadian-nhl-teams-a-boost/

    Perfect. Thank you. If management isn’t selling that, even based on 2012, they’re morons.

  178. JorgeR04 says:

    Sigh…

    Been a young man cheering for the Oil since 2005 but my patience is wearing. I try to tell myself the rebuild has to work eventually but how many times have we thought we had the answer just to find out in a year or two they were nothing.

    On D:

    Souray
    Gilbert
    Whitney
    Smid
    Petry?
    Marincin?
    Niikita?

    Could do the same with C (Gagner) or G (Dubnyk). I’m starting to lose interest in the future :/. What are the chances Nurse/Ekblad don’t end up being top pairing D?

  179. Ducey says:

    Interesting that Nikitin and Fayne are 5th round draft picks.

    Draft guys with decent size, some mobility and a good hockey IQ and they can turn into solid NHL defensemen.

  180. Snowman says:

    I suppose it would be too much to ask to get Fayne and Boychuk? What would that make our D look like? What do you think it would take to get Boychuk? That’s got to be getting closer to a playoff blue line if you can have Nikitin, Marincin, Boychuk, Ference, Fayne, Shultz? I assume you lose Petry somewhere in there. That looks pretty solid to me. Is it doable?

  181. TheGreatMutato says:

    hoser313:
    One other thought:

    When I hear the name Nikita, am I the only one to think of this?

    http://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/22500000/Season-4-la-femme-nikita-22580877-586-595.jpg

    Yeah, the first thing I started thinking about from a position of pessimism is what kind of shoddy nickname we would give the poor guy in the event that he goes full-Mark-Fraser on us.

    Best I could come up with was “La Phlegm Nikita”. Ugh.

  182. freedomisamyth says:

    LMHF#1: Perfect. Thank you. If management isn’t selling that, even based on 2012, they’re morons.

    Guess you missed the interview where MacT explicitly mentions that as pretty much their biggest selling point?

  183. LMHF#1 says:

    freedomisamyth: Guess you missed the interview where MacT explicitly mentions that as pretty much their biggest selling point?

    Yes, that would be the first I’ve heard of it. Point it out if you can please and thank you.

  184. LoDog says:

    LMHF#1: Yes, that would be the first I’ve heard of it. Point it out if you can please and thank you.

    Seen it in a few places but here is one/

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/06/16/edmonton-oilers-offseason-begins-for-gm-craig-mactavish

  185. spoiler says:

    LMHF#1,

    It was in Gregor’s exclusive interview with MacT last week:
    http://oilersnation.com/2014/6/21/mact-talks-analytics-free-agency-and-the-draft

    Towards the end of the interview.

    By the way, LMHF, now that Hemsky has moved on, does the “H” stand for Hall?.

  186. Ducey says:

    TSNRyanRishaug: Clayton Stoner generating some interest as well, his camp will meet with several teams this week, Oilers not among them at this point.

  187. spoiler says:

    Gregor also made this prophetic comment in the same interview:

    ***I spoke to MacTavish on Wednesday and he foreshadowed the Nikitin trade with his last comment. I suspect the Oilers will be looking to add at least one, if not two, more defencemen with NHL experience in over the next ten days. I’m perplexed to why people think adding Nikitin is a bad move. All of his stats suggest he is a more than capable D-man, and he’s 28 years old and he’s only played 206 NHL games. He has room to improve. The harsh reality is the Oilers will need to develop their top-pairing defenders. Expecting them to trade for one is wishful thinking.***

    Looks like NIkitin is expected to play 2nd pairing and this strikes me as a reasonable overpay with nice term for that role. Fayne would be expected to play 3rd pairing RHD (if they manage to sign him), and maybe can develop into something more. Size and mobility seem to be the fit here.

    I also think some of the Nikitin money is being paid for his LHS on the PP, which now gives the Oilers non-rookie D options in that spot.

  188. LMHF#1 says:

    spoiler:
    LMHF#1,

    It was in Gregor’s exclusive interview with MacT last week:
    http://oilersnation.com/2014/6/21/mact-talks-analytics-free-agency-and-the-draft

    Towards the end of the interview.

    By the way, LMHF, now that Hemsky has moved on, does the “H” stand for Hall?.

    The acronym stands unchanged.

    He is a UFA after all…

  189. spoiler says:

    Bolland wants $5M X 8 years? EIGHT!? Sweet Baby Jesus.

  190. spoiler says:

    On Stastny:


    “Paul’s first choice is to re-sign in Colorado but we’ll listen to what teams have to say and make an informed decision,” Keator told ESPN.com on Wednesday morning.

    Per Pierre LeBrun’s Hockey Rumblings blog.

  191. spoiler says:

    LMHF#1: The acronym stands unchanged.

    He is a UFA after all…

    Lol… good point!

  192. russ99 says:

    Nice, from the recent quotes from MacT and Howson, we seem to be getting closer to my 7 additions threshhold:

    3 – defensemen: Nikitin (Fayne, big crease clearer signed cheap as #7 in early August)
    1 – 2nd line center: (Grabovsky)
    2 – 3rd line wingers: (Kulemin, Winnik/Moss)
    1 – 4th line center: (T. Lewis)

  193. nycoil says:

    LeBrun covers a variety of subjects including Boyle, Stastny

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/31580/rumblings-good-deal-of-interest-for-boyle

  194. TheOtherJohn says:

    spoiler:
    Bolland wants $5M X 8 years?EIGHT!?Sweet Baby Jesus.

    Bolland wants $7m per year for 6 years to sign in Edmonton…….. to use similiar reasoning to NN if he’s capable of 2C minutes its only a slight overpay

  195. Racki says:

    I’m not convinced that Nikitin is the top pairing D man and crosses the item off. I like him, but I think that there is a trade out there for someone closer to the top pair guy and I think MacT is trying to find it. Maybe an Ehrhoff type. Not sure he waives his NTC to come here though. But I’d like to if Nikitin is 2nd pair, and the Oil manage to land Fayne (they are trying) and then blow our minds by landing a rock via trade. Maybe wishful thinking on my part.

    I see Nikitin as a great 3rd pair, a usable 2nd pair and very iffy top pair, so I’m hoping that there IS more to come. I’m happy with the deal tho in spite of the $.

  196. druid99999 says:

    RexLibris,

    I pulled the draft data off hockey db and was fooling around with it the other day. Didn’t do anything near as fancy as Scott, just looked at the number of players from 1991 to 2009 that exceded threshold levels of games.

    For example; If you set the threshold at a 5 year career (about 375 games)

    The likelyhood of getting a skater (F or D) who plays more than 375 games drops quickly from pick #1 (mid 80′s) to about pick 9 (50% chance).
    The trend stabilizes till the end of round 1 (likely due to 1st rounders getting a push because of their pedigre).
    The trend then steps down suddenly and stabilizes through the 2nd to the middle of the 3rd round.
    Then it steps down again and slowly drops till the end of the draft.

    Some interesting findings:
    Pick 15 is the “pick of doom” just 3 of 17 players had more than 375 games, compare that to picks 14 and 17 which both returned 8 players.

    The first pick that has not resulted in a player who met the 375 game threshold is #34. The best of the bunch was Andrew Peters from 1998 who played in 229 games.

    When you chart the data you can see why MacT made the trades he did at the draft last year.
    After the middle of round 3 (about pick 70) the picks have pretty similar value.
    So he basically traded one pick (37) that had a 15% chance of getting a 5 year player for 5 picks that each had about a 10% chance of getting a 5 year player.

    I’ll see if I can get the spreadsheets posted so folks can take a look at them if they are interested.

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