PREVIEW OF COMING ATTRACTIONS

A summer ago, there were one dozen items on Craig MacTavish’s ‘to-do’ list, and this season there are only eight. Progress? Well, the additions of Gordon, Perron, Ference, Scrivens and Fasth were helpful, and the recall of Marincin and Klefbom were additionally beneficial. How much work is left? It remains Everest.

MACT’S SUMMER 2014 LIST

  1. A veteran top pairing defenseman. A real man, big time EV minutes and a history of successful sorties.
  2. A 2line C with experience and the ability to play a two-way game. This is the other vital piece.
  3. A legit two-way winger who can score 12-15 goals. The Pisani role. Mentor, calms the waters.
  4. Find a way to get value, or make use of, Sam Gagner. This does not include time at center.
  5. Improve the bottom 6F’s.
  6. Retain as much of the young cluster as possible, understanding that the player who represents #1 on this list might cost a young D who will one day fill that role.
  7. Get Petry signed long term.
  8. Sign Schultz but DO NOT break the bank.

That’s a more manageable list, I think it might be wise to note here the possibility of Edmonton running with the department of youth on defense. At some point, Lowe might say “hell, Coffey, Risto and I could barely shave when we hit the ice back in ’79″ and then we’re rolling with Marincin, Klefbom and Nurse. It could happen, just that way. Center too, come to think of it. Leon Draisaitl has a ‘Gagner ’07′ training camp and now the Oilers won the summer by not making any foolish moves for veterans!

It would be a colossal mistake.

I’d like to see Braydon Coburn, Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin added, and Colin Wilson (or similar) to come over in the Gagner deal.

50-MAN LIST (June 4)

  1. G Ben Scrivens
  2. G Viktor Fasth
  3. G Richard Bachman (rfa)
  4. G Tyler Bunz
  5. G Laurent Brossoit
  6. G Frans Tuohimaa
  7. D Jeff Petry (rfa)
  8. D Justin Schultz (rfa)
  9. D Martin Marincin
  10. D Andrew Ference
  11. D Oscar Klefbom
  12. D Brandon Davidson
  13. D Martin Gernat
  14. D David Musil
  15. D Brad Hunt
  16. D Jordan Oesterle (added)
  17. D Dillon Simpson (added)
  18. D Darnell Nurse (sliderule)
  19. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  20. C Sam Gagner
  21. C Boyd Gordon
  22. C Mark Arcobello
  23. C Anton Lander
  24. C Will Acton
  25. C Travis Ewanyk
  26. C Jujhar Khairax
  27. C Bogdan Yakimov (added)
  28. L Taylor Hall
  29. L Nail Yakupov
  30. L Matt Hendricks
  31. L Luke Gazdic (rfa)
  32. L Jesse Joensuu
  33. L Ryan Hamilton
  34. L Curtis Hamilton (rfa)
  35. L Kale Kessy
  36. L Mitchell Moroz
  37. R Jordan Eberle
  38. R David Perron
  39. R Tyler Pitlick (rfa)
  40. R Andrew Miller (rfa)

Gone since our last look: D Phil Larsen, L Roman Horak. Players added since early March are noted above, I expect we’ll see some more small movements (Steve Pinizzotto signed, Curtis Hamilton possibly not offered a contract) as the spring rolls into summer. Let’s add my summer to this group:

OILERS PROJECTED 2014-15 ROSTER

  • Center: Nugent-Hopkins, Mikhail Grabovski, Boyd Gordon, Mark Arcobello, Anton Lander
  • Left Wing: Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, Nikolai Kulemin, Jesse Joensuu, Luke Gazdic
  • Right Wing: Jordan Eberle, David Perron, Colin Wilson, Matt Hendricks
  • Left Defense: Braydon Coburn, Martin Marincin, Andrew Ference
  • Right Defense: Jeff Petry, Justin Schultz, Oscar Klefbom
  • Goal: Ben Scrivens, Viktor Fasth

The top 9 forwards have a veteran presence and some structure, and there’s just a hint of depth and balance. You could lose someone for a week and have an alternative. Lots of help for Yakupov, and even the fourth line might be able to do more than ring the puck around all the time. Defense? Veteran in Coburn, top four has only one weak link and if Klefbom continues to develop, maybe it wouldn’t be for the entire season.

 OKLAHOMA CITY PROJECTED 2014-15 ROSTER

  • Center: Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Will Acton, Travis Ewanyk
  • Left Wing: Ryan Hamilton, Curtis Hamilton, Kale Kessy, Mitchell Moroz
  • Right Wing: Matt Ford (signed yesterday AHL deal), Andrew Miller, Tyler Pitlick
  • Left Defense: Brandon Davidson, Martin Gernat, Jordan Oesterle
  • Right Defense: David Musil, Brad Hunt, Dillon Simpson
  • Goal: Richard Bachman, Laurent Brossoit

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense the Oilers will draft Draisaitl and then pump the ‘twin towers’ of the Russian and the German as option for 2line center. Maybe a soft minutes line with Yakupov and Perron? I can see it. I didn’t include Darnell Nurse among the blue, but you can bet he will be a factor as well. Adding “the Coburn” and “the Grabovski” and “the Pisani” will take a lot out of this club (I used the No. 3 overall as centerpiece for the Coburn deal), and Craig MacTavish will have to decide how many veterans he’ll need for the long winter. I suspect the answer is four.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning at TSN 1260. We begin at 10am asking agent Tom Lynn about the USHL, what agents and prospects are doing leading up to the draft, and how NHL teams and agents discuss possible movement without tampering. I’ll also speak to Ryan Marsh, Asst coach of champion U of A Golden Bears about their season and the Edmonton amateur scene as it goes quiet for about 10 seconds. Bruce McCurdy will join me in hour two, I’ll ask him about the Oilers in summer, what needs to be added and we’ll chat about the draft. Finally, Jeff Krushell pops in to talk baseball, NHL combine and the football news.

Same bat time, same bat channel. Hope you can join me.

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100 Responses to "PREVIEW OF COMING ATTRACTIONS"

  1. mumbai max says:

    I like the projected roster and expect it to make the playoffs. I go back to my much earlier post about the effect of average plus goaltending on last years team only leaving us 8 points short.

    Anyway, did you trade the 3rd straight up for Coburn, or did we get a bag of pucks or some other asset that is inanimate and therefore not on the roster? Just asking.

    Anyway, I wonder what the real chance of getting Grabo and Kulemin is? It will be the most famous package deal since Selanne and Kariya, or maybe the Sedin twins! Or the Howes!!!

    Good work, get those deals mopped up so we can relax for the rest of the summer.

    Grooving on the Jays!!!

  2. mumbai max says:

    You know, speaking of the Blue Jays, I wonder if there is a parallel here. Last year there was great ballyhoo about the new players and the new (old) manager. THEN, as you will remember, the wheels fell off the shit wagon and shit got on everyone. Injuries, regression, bad luck……..you name it, if it had a dark cloud over it, it showed up.

    This year, largely the same guys (+/-) and everything is coming up roses. The veterans are veterring, the bull pen is not bull shit, no one is getting injured making pancakes (wrong sport but great example). All of a sudden the manager is a YAHOOO country boy genius while last year he could not get out of his own way.

    Anyway, I offer that thought as hope that our very own shit wagon will keeps its wheels on and we will all be talking about positive regression, lack of injuries and our ironman genius coach in a few months.

  3. slopitch says:

    I was thinking about the draft. I’ve seen a couple places recently have a different #1 from Ekblad. If the Oilers want Ekblad, its actually beneficial that FLA has the #1. All it takes is them to have Reinhart or Bennett as #1 and I think we get Ekblad.

    Another possibility is if Bennett slides to #3 and someone thinks he’s #1 and makes a strong pitch. As for drafting Draisatl. I like him but all I keep seeing is Reinhart, Ekblad and Bennett as the top 3. Im not sure what the gap really is but you cant take J Staal over J Toews because you want size. If you need size the Oilers have a decent collection of assets (despite lacking NHL players).

    Anyways, I think the play is to hang onto the #3 and hope Ekblad slips. Otherwise, shop the pick. Maybe you get an offer you cant refuse and if you dont you get a great prospect at #3.

  4. oilspillcali says:

    Hey LT

    Did you know that Grabo signed on with a Belarussian soccer team? Is there a chance that he is leaving hockey all together? If he does flee to play in his home country whi should we look at as a second option?

  5. Numenius says:

    Do you have them letting Fedun walk?

    I think it’d be great to sign him, start him at OKC, and have him available as 4th RD.

  6. the_Fab_5 says:

    that line-up is way too good to be true!

    the more I think about it, the more I want Leon…if he can turn into anything close to Kopitar, he’d be an excellent 1-2 punch of the middle with RNH and we’d be set for years down the middle

    Coburn would cost the 3rd OV though hey? any way we can get a similar d-man that won’t cost us our pick?

  7. nycoil says:

    slopitch,

    I think the risk in that scenario is that another team trades up to #1 to snag Ekblad. Lot of smoke coming from South Florida that Tallon wants a young top 4D and a high pick in the 3~7 range to take an offensive dynamo like Nylander, Ehlers, or someone like that.

    Otherwise I would say Buffalo is very likely to take the best C available so Ekblad would indeed fall to the Oil–if no one moves up. Could see Burke being all over that, but not sure how autonomous Treliving is.

  8. nycoil says:

    oilspillcali,

    It’s a conditioning/summer fun thing. He’s not leaving hockey.

  9. Henry says:

    Part of me thinks Grabovski would be great for the Oilers particularly in the mentoring of Yakupov on the ice.

    My worry about him is playing the tough comp in the west at 5’11″, 183lbs. Even if he is one tough guy he’s giving up 40lbs to Backes, Kopitar, Marleau, Hanzal etc.

  10. Lois Lowe says:

    mumbai max,

    The major flaw with your reasoning is that the Jays last year had actual MLB players that were under-performing. This year they are on the good side of the luck/PDO ledger.

    Reyes
    Cabrera
    Bautista
    Encarnacion
    Lind
    Francisco
    Lawrie

    That is murderers row.

  11. mumbai max says:

    Lois Lowe:
    mumbai max,

    The major flaw with your reasoning is that the Jays last year had actual MLB players that were under-performing. This year they are on the good side of the luck/PDO ledger.

    Reyes
    Cabrera
    Bautista
    Encarnacion
    Francisco
    Lawrie

    That is murderers row.

    You will find this hard to believe, but there are those that say the Oilers had under performing real NHL players too!!! I know, it is a crazy idea.

  12. Henry says:

    If MacT negotiates well, Coburn shouldn’t cost the #3. Philly has about $11M to sign 7 guys including Schenn. They spend too much cap on defense and may think that MacDonald can play Coburn’s minutes for some reason.

    Does anyone know the terms of Coburn’s NTC though?

  13. russ99 says:

    Kind of odd we wasted an OKC veteran contract on Ford when all our forward CHL graduates essentially do the same things.

    Say no to Coburn. I’m much more hopeful on trying to pry Ehrhoff or Myers out of Buffalo.

    Plus we need another veteran D. I’d rather Klefbom and Nurse earn a spot than be rushed. Marincin is proof that patience is best with D prospects.

  14. Woodguy says:

    Read another piece on Anton Stralman this morning.

    It was actually about how the Ranger D matches up against various competition, and Stralman comes out looking like an All-Star.

    http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2014/6/4/5778722/deployment-of-the-ranger-defencemen

    The more I read on Stralman, the more I’m convinced he may be one of the best, if not the best UFA Dman this summer.

    Since he is 5’10″ and 190lbs I doubt MacT knows that he exists.

    He is not famous, he is not large, he need not apply at the Oiler’s HQ.

    Stralman is RH so would push Petry to 2RD and Shultz to 3RD, which is ideal.

    Those 3 would be slotted at their established NHL ability and would not be a concern.

    Therefore it won’t happen.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:

    Read another piece on Anton Stralman this morning.

    It was actually about how the Ranger D matches up against various competition, and Stralman comes out looking like an All-Star.

    http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2014/6/4/5778722/deployment-of-the-ranger-defencemen

    The more I read on Stralman, the more I’m convinced he may be one of the best, if not the best UFA Dman this summer.

    Since he is 5’10″ and 190lbs I doubt MacT knows that he exists.

    He is not famous, he is not large, he need not apply at the Oiler’s HQ.

    Stralman is RH so would push Petry to 2RD and Shultz to 3RD, which is ideal.

    Those 3 would be slotted at their established NHL ability and would not be a concern.

    Therefore it won’t happen.

    I wonder about his minutes. Can he handle 25 against top level comp? He’s going toget paid like he can.

  16. Hall Awaits says:

    Henry,

    10 teams he can list that he doesn’t want to go to. Edmonton would be a desired destination for him is what Stauffer said during the draft last year. Coburn being an Alberta guy of course.

  17. cahill says:

    Woodguy,

    The more I think about it the more I would want Stralman as my primary target. I think that he’s gonna sign in the 4.5 million range. I would up it to above 5 million to sign him. I like Grabovski, but I think they could get by with cheaper options. I also read he wants to stay in the East last year, so I’m not sure why he would change his mind this year.

    For the defense sign Stralman & Clayton Stoner for the truculence that can play.
    Defense:
    Marincin-Petry
    Klefbom/Ference-Stralman
    Stoner/Ference-Schultz

    I think this is a good mix that can play and if you can get an upgrade over Klefbom in a trade or a secondary free agent list (such as Hainsey/Gilbert last year) then do it.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    russ99: Kind of odd we wasted an OKC veteran contract on Ford when all our forward CHL graduates essentially do the same things.

    You can’t have all rookies in the AHL.

    They have to add AHL vets to fill out the roster at the very least. Might as well reward a guy in-house, who’s played well and knows the coaches and team.

    Makes perfect sense to me.

  19. Logan91 says:

    Anyone else think the Oilers might try to take Richards off the Kings hands if they’re trying to get rid of him?

  20. Hammers says:

    Woodguy: Read another piece on Anton Stralman this morning.It was actually about how the Ranger D matches up against various competition, and Stralman comes out looking like an All-Star.http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2014/6/4/5778722/deployment-of-the-ranger-defencemenThe more I read on Stralman, the more I’m convinced he may be one of the best, if not the best UFA Dman this summer.Since he is 5’10″ and 190lbs I doubt MacT knows that he exists.He is not famous, he is not large, he need not apply at the Oiler’s HQ.Stralman is RH so would push Petry to 2RD and Shultz to 3RD, which is ideal.Those 3 would be slotted at their established NHL ability and would not be a concern.Therefore it won’t happen.

    In a perfect world adding Stralman and say Phaneuf would give us a very good defensive group +Marincin/Petry + Schultz Klefbom/Ference .

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    As much as I like Draisaitl, I think the optimal scenario for the Oilers is picking Ekblad if he slips to #3.

    Reasons being:

    1) In most of the scouting reports I’ve read, Ekblad is the one most consistently cited as being the most ‘pro ready’ A plug n play solution helps tremendously with MacT’s to do list.

    2) In recent years, it seems there are more options to sign 1Cs and 2Cs in free agency, than there are options to sign 1Ds. As a result, I think Ekblad may prove to be the more valuable ‘asset’ long-term. This is important, because inevitably we’re going to get to the point in this rebuild where some aspect of the core mix needs to be tweaked to make the team a true Cup winning threat, and it will be to MacT’s benefit to have the optimal asset portfolio at his disposal then.

    Conversely, if BOTH Nurse and Ebklad reach the 1C ceiling, you’re potentially looking at a nice Weber/Suter scenario. Two big mins shutdown horses you can trot out against the toughest comps.

    3) This club has a LOT of cap space and should be in the mix for Paul Stastny. Again, another option to put an immediate check beside a key item on MacT’s to do list. Yes, we dodged a bullet with Clarkson, but the need is so huge and the hole so vast at 1C, I think this is that rare situation where a massive overpay is warranted.

    A nice scenario to think about is MacT blowing the competition out of the water with money, but not term. Make Stastny the highest paid player in the NHL – but only for the next 2 years. That seems like a very palatable enticement for the player, and buys MacT the time he needs to rebuild Gagner’s value and then trade him for a legitimate 2C prospect. In a couple seasons, Nuge is pushing Stastny for the 1C mins, and you can part ways with your big money bandaid with a nice prospect bubbling under for the 2C mins.

    FLA and BUFF are both bottom of the league in GFs. Sean Jones slipped to #4 last season, despite many pundits including the Hockey News having him as the 1OV pick. I think Ekblad can and should be our pick.

  22. Racki says:

    Woodguy:
    Read another piece on Anton Stralman this morning.

    It was actually about how the Ranger D matches up against various competition, and Stralman comes out looking like an All-Star.

    http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2014/6/4/5778722/deployment-of-the-ranger-defencemen

    The more I read on Stralman, the more I’m convinced he may be one of the best, if not the best UFA Dman this summer.

    Since he is 5’10″ and 190lbs I doubt MacT knows that he exists.

    He is not famous, he is not large, he need not apply at the Oiler’s HQ.

    Stralman is RH so would push Petry to 2RD and Shultz to 3RD, which is ideal.

    Those 3 would be slotted at their established NHL ability and would not be a concern.

    Therefore it won’t happen.

    Put the bug in Blob or Matty’s ear and it will get to MacT eventually. There are some good quality signings available at LHD too. If he played his cards right, MacT could leave July 1st (ish) with two “moneyball” LHD and a Stralman without breaking the bank too bad. There are some good trade targets too now, but I hope these bargain signings get attention.

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Logan91:
    Anyone else think the Oilers might try to take Richards off the Kings hands if they’re trying to get rid of him?

    Is he a good player in decline on a long contract?

    What’s not to like?

  24. Racki says:

    Logan91:
    Anyone else think the Oilers might try to take Richards off the Kings hands if they’re trying to get rid of him?

    I don’t typically say this.. But I have a tough time seeing Richards wanting to play here. Mike or Brad, for that matter.

  25. pboy says:

    Logan91:
    Anyone else think the Oilers might try to take Richards off the Kings hands if they’re trying to get rid of him?

    I’ve been thinking that way for awhile now. He’s making big money for the rest of forever, he’s been bumped down the 4th line, he’s a guy with a pedigree of winning and Leading and he’s not 35+. Also, these teams have been making deals with each other on a pretty regular basis, so there’s a ton of history. Kopitar and Carter are 1 and 1A and Stoll is a nicely priced 3rd line C, there’s no fit for Mike Richards at that price point in LA. There’s a huge hole at 2C for the Oilers.

    In regards to Coburn for the #3 OAL, that’s ridiculous. They were discussing that player at the draft and I believe the price point was 1 or 2 2nd rounders.

  26. Caramel Obvious says:

    I’m with Woodguy on Stralman. He’s the guy to target. His price may have gone up but who cares. The only thing the Oilers have is cap space and there isn’t anything out there to spend it on.

    It would be a miraculous off season but free agent signings of Stralman, Grabovski, and Kulemin plus a non-terrible Gagner trade would transform this team overnight.

    Indeed, imagine (and this is massive wishcasting but whatever) a Gagner + 2nd round pick + Gernat or Musil or whatever (just keep adding worthless junk, that’s how it works right?) trade for Josi.

    Play Josi and Stralman together and you have your first pair. Play Grabovski, Kulemin and Perronn together and you have your second line.

    This is the path. Make it happen. That’s a team that could make the playoffs. Anything less than this and they won’t.

    All it takes is everyone bending to my will.

  27. Racki says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    wtf would my post be awaiting moderation?

    It’s because the site filter hates you.

    Seriously though, happens to me from time to time. Probably because you’re too obsessed with talking about boner pills.

  28. Caramel Obvious says:

    Logan91:
    Anyone else think the Oilers might try to take Richards off the Kings hands if they’re trying to get rid of him?

    This is my greatest fear. This is the kind of shit we should worry about. Not stuff like Engeland or Fraser.

    My minimum price for taking Richards is Toffoli attached to him and Gagner going the other way, and even then I’d think hard about it.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    Further to my last post, I think this lineup has the potential to make the playoffs.

    If Ekblad could hit the ground running as a legitimate 2D, I particularly like the impact he has on the D depth chart.

    Hall/Stastny/Yakupov
    Perron/RNH/Eberle
    Hendricks/Gordon/Gagner
    UFA/Arco/UFA
    Gazdic

    Petry/Ekblad
    Marincin/Ference
    Schultz/Klefbom

    Scrivens/Fasth

    The X Factor, as always, is the goaltending. If Scrivens regresses, if Fasth is injury prone, etc. this team’s back to being on the back foot again.

  30. Lowetide says:

    No one wants to discuss Stralman’s increase in minutes and qual comp and how that might impact him?

  31. sumaclab says:

    I would trade with Philly and rape them for B Shenn,the 17th,Braydon Coburn and Scott Laughton. Cap issues and they’ll want a shot at Vanek. I am more than willing to trade the #3 for those players/pick.

    The only way I do not trade the pickis if Eckblad is at 3.Other than that its to move forward.

    Richards? Lowetide’s dog skates better than him. Has he ever slowed down. Looks like he has a piano tied to his ass. Really.

    Trade perron back to St Louis and get Ty Rattie and MP and the 23rd back.

    We really need to get bigger on the wing.Your not doing that ifyou keep YAK,EBS and Perron. One has to go. Ebs? No way he moves. Yak? after last season?Noway.Perron? Huge value.

    St Louis frakedupby resigning Chris Stewart and trading Perron.They took that one up the old colon.You think they want rookies and or wait on MP todevelop? Hitch wants and plays veteran players. Proven talent. Perron has history in the Blues organization and has had ayear to bounce back and prove that he is healthy.

    Get the value now.Take the money and sign Kulimen and Grabbo.

  32. mumbai max says:

    Why has no one mentioned the soon to be bought out Brad Richards as a UFA target?

    Could be an ideal 2C.

  33. Caramel Obvious says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t want to be rude, but that team doesn’t have a chance in hell of making the playoffs.

    You’ve only added two players, one of whom shouldn’t play in the NHL next year at all, while the other has all the makings of a future albatross contract.

    The Oilers have to add much more talent than that while avoiding precisely the players you’ve identified. An offseason in which the Oilers draft Ekblad and sign Stastny would be an unmitigated disaster.

  34. Racki says:

    Lowetide:
    No one wants to discuss Stralman’s increase in minutes and qual comp and how that might impact him?

    If the Oilers pick up Stralman (P.S., no, phone, I didn’t mean Stalin) or any other RHD, I think they still would be wise to chase some decent LHDs. 2 would be fantastic. So you could take a lot of the load off Stralman by acquiring the right LHD. And this may be crazy talk, but maybe you could run the top two pairings fairly evenly.

  35. Bag of Pucks says:

    Caramel Obvious:

    My minimum price for taking Richards is Toffoli attached to him and Gagner going the other way, and even then I’d think hard about it.

    Hi Dean, the last GM to play without a helmet here.

    Listen, here’s the deal, trade me your vet C, you know the guy who’s a two way beast, one of the best leaders in the league – the one who’s won at every level he’s ever played. So him, and then throw in your top scoring prospect, the one you’ve just finished grooming that looks ready to go nuclear.

    And I’ll fire over our draft bust who rarely sees the D zone and couldn’t win a faceoff if the cure for Cancer depended on it. So that’s the starting point. Cool?

  36. Racki says:

    sumaclab,

    I like Rattie as a player, but the Oil fleeced the Blues by moving Paajarvi (and 2nd for Perron) and now we want to undo that (even though Rattie is added). I don’t get the obsession with Paajarvi. Rattie is a good prospect, but he’s quite young still, and a smaller guy. This trade would set the rebuild back. There are much better deals out there for Perron I’m sure.

  37. nycoil says:

    Re: Stralman– I watch him probably more than most on this board?

    I’ve read the Dellow article where the math shows he is better than McDonagh. I know we don’t like “saw him good/bad” as a way of rating a player here. So please take my opinion with a huge grain of salt. I think McDonagh, Staal, Girardi take a lot of the heat off Stralman despite what the math/zone starts say. I think Stralman is great, don’t get me wrong, but swap roles with McDonagh and I am confident he will suffer.

    He’d look terrific on our 2nd pairing playing 20mins a night. He won’t look good on the top pairing in the West playing 25mins a night. He is like a left side Petry, but with better straight line skating (and Petry is no slouch on ice). By the way, I think if Petry were on the Rangers in that system, with the D-pairings and goalie they have, people would be talking about how good he is all around the league.

    I like Stralman. I don’t think he has the strength to handle top pairing minutes in the Pacific Division; I do think he has all the skills necessary to handle a #3 or #4 role.

    The man has had very little stability in his career. See below
    2009-Jul-27 Traded from Toronto Maple Leafs with Colin Stuart and round 7 pick in the 2012 draft to Calgary Flames for Wayne Primeau and round 2 pick in the 2011 draft (Brandon Saad)

    2009-Sep-28 Traded from Calgary Flames to Columbus Blue Jackets for round 3 pick in the 2010 draft (Max Reinhart). At this time, Calgary was putting him on waivers as well after trading for him and he failed to make the team!

    Then he signed with the Rangers in 2011. He is getting paid $1.8M only this year.

    I think he’d pick somewhere based on term. 5 years x $4M would be a nice payday for a guy in his situation. Make it 6 and you might get him. I wouldn’t go too much higher than that on cap hit though. And I’d still go after another vet D-man for the top 4. (Markov on a short-term, high cap hit deal? I fear Niskanen is going to get something stupid like 6 x $6m and that’s too much)

    Marincin-Markov
    Stralman-Petry
    Ference-Schultz

    if you can’t get a true top pair blue liner, the next best thing until the cavalry arrives would be to have at least two 2A pairings. Make it 22 mins / 21 mins / 17 mins or something along those lines.

  38. russ99 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    It’s a pretty minor gripe, but Ford is a third line grinder guy, and he’ll end up taking a spot from one of the kids.

    I’d rather see skilled veteran forwards added to give the Barons a more complete roster. It’s hard for players to fully develop when they’re playing in less than optimal roles, or in situations they’ll rarely see when they make the jump to the big club.

    Kind of like with Alex Giroux. Get a veteran AHL guy who can score and offer the carrot of possible NHL time if we have injuries.

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    Caramel Obvious:

    The Oilers have to add much more talent than that while avoiding precisely the players you’ve identified.Anoffseason in which the Oilers draft Ekblad and sign Stastny would be an unmitigated disaster.

    No, a season in which the Oilers draft Sam Gagner, Alex Plante and Riley Nash with 3 1st round picks while losing Sykora and Hejda as FAs (whilst chasing Nylander) is an unmitigated disaster.

    Adding a proven two way C and a blue chip D prospect is not what anyone should call a ‘disaster’

  40. rickithebear says:

    Simple question when talking Dmen.

    Are they a easy landing runway to the front of the net.
    Or do they make the opposition Circle
    Petry (circle)
    Marincin (circle and circle)
    Healthy Ference (circle)
    Unhealthy Ference ( huge runway)
    Coburn (Runway)
    Josi (Forces them to circle but is the easiest landings)

    I want the Perimeter Dmen.

  41. Caramel Obvious says:

    Lowetide:
    No one wants to discuss Stralman’s increase in minutes and qual comp and how that might impact him?

    I don’t want to discuss those things because I don’t think they matter very much. The importance of quality of competition is exaggerated especially for guys who play in the top four. In order to believe it is of crucial importance you have to believe there is a big difference between first and second lines but on most teams there isn’t.

    In the last game against the Canadians Stralman played 11 minutes against Plekanec and 4 minutes against Pacioretty, while McDonagh played 8 minutes against Pacioretty and 3 minutes against Plekanec. How much better do you think the Pacioretty line was? I think the difference is small. Stralman also played four more minutes than McDonagh at even strength. The difference in their playing time is mostly powerplay time. So, this is even more of a non-issue.

  42. rickithebear says:

    It is ecxciting to see a Almost PPG college player @ 18
    and
    A center who scored like ovechkin and Seminin RSL/KHL at same age.
    step down in competion in the AHL

  43. russ99 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Move the UFAs up to the third line, add 2 veteran defensemen and deal Gagner, and you may have something.

    Also, I think long-term Fasth is going to be the starter. He has the SEL pedigree and Scrivens’ numbers with the Kings this year was a bit of an outlier.

    Though it’s nice to have two capable goalie options again, and who knows how good they could be with even an NHL average defense corps.

  44. Caramel Obvious says:

    Bag of Pucks: No, a season in which the Oilers draft Sam Gagner, Alex Plante and Riley Nash with 3 1st round pickswhile losing Sykora and Hejda as FAs (whilst chasing Nylander) is an unmitigated disaster.

    Adding a proven two way C and a blue chip D prospect is not what anyone should call a ‘disaster’

    The problem is that it is nowhere near enough. That team is closer to last place than the playoffs. In the meantime their ability to improve in the future will be hamstrung by the terrible Stastny contract. Stastny is going to be paid like he can score but he isn’t going to score. Stastny will be this years Nathan Horton.

    Ekblad is a young defensemen. Taking a defensemen in the top five is a bad idea.

  45. nycoil says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    McDonagh used to play more evens and less PP under Tortorella. Vigneault and the trade of Del Zotto changed things up. Now Vigneault uses him in all situations, but with Del Zotto gone in particular, McDonagh is the de facto PP QB. He had to increase his minutes at PP, decrease them at evens because Girardi, Staal, Stralman can make up those evens minutes better than they could on PP. He has deployed them almost flawlessly this year.

    I hated everything Canuck, but must say Vigneault is one smart coach.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Obvious: I don’t want to discuss those things because I don’t think they matter very much.The importance of quality of competition is exaggerated especially for guys who play in the top four.In order to believe it is of crucial importance you have to believe there is a big difference between first and second lines but on most teams there isn’t.

    In the last game against the Canadians Stralman played 11 minutes against Plekanec and 4 minutes against Pacioretty, while McDonagh played 8 minutes against Pacioretty and 3 minutes against Plekanec.How much better do you think the Pacioretty line was?I think the difference is small.Stralman also played four more minutes than McDonagh at even strength.The difference in their playing time is mostly powerplay time.So, this is even more of a non-issue.

    Stralman is 4th in EV minutes through the season and doesnt play much on special teams. Doesn’t mean he can’t do it, just that we’re paying him for doing it all

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20142NYRDADALL&sort=avgEvenStrengthTOIPerGame&viewName=timeOnIce

  47. Racki says:

    I don’t have problems with Stastny….. But the Oilers need NHL D, and the lineup above didn’t acquire any.. That’s the prob. I’d like 2 signings/trades. 3 would be superb!

  48. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    See my post above, but I don’t think you can. He needs to be in the Petry range…so if you’re assuming $4m for Petry, it needs to be close to that, + $500K maybe for the UFA factor, but I think he may be looking for longer term for security.

  49. Rondo says:

    LT you mentioned among scouts the top 3 centres are very close , however if you add up the latest mock drafts 4 of them. Craig Buttons Corey Pronman Future Considerations and ISS. I know Bob M is not there.

    AE–6

    SR–8

    SB–12

    WN– 21

    MDC–22

    LD–22

    Draisaitl is not even the consensus #4.

    I’m not saying Oilers should not pick Draisaitl at #3. But among these mocks he is not close.

  50. Caramel Obvious says:

    nycoil,

    The point is that giving Stralman more minutes doesn’t hurt him. We make too much of these things. If you can play, you can play. There is nothing magical about a first pairing D. It doesn’t require any mystical qualities other than being good. It’s the same game. If Stralman is good (and we think he’s good) and he’s better than the alternatives (and we think he’s better) then that is all that matters.

    Talk of pairing on D is misplaced and moves the conversation in the wrong direction, making it harder to see what matters and what doesn’t.

    Adding Stralman isn’t going to make Petry and Schultz play better. It isn’t. There is a limit to how much you can hide guys in the NHL, the fourth line and one or two D. That’s it. Since any free agent signing isn’t being hid right now and won’t be hid on the Oilers, there is little reason to talk about whether they can handle tougher competition because they won’t be facing tougher competition. Likewise, Petry is going to face the best guys no matter what. Because there is no situation in which he won’t be one of the best D on the Oilers.

  51. Caramel Obvious says:

    Lowetide: Stralman is 4th in EV minutes through the season and doesnt play much on special teams. Doesn’t mean he can’t do it, just that we’re paying him for doing it all

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20142NYRDADALL&sort=avgEvenStrengthTOIPerGame&viewName=timeOnIce

    Like I said, I don’t think any of that matters. He played slightly less. I don’t think a minute or two a game is important. He isn’t going to play 25 minutes for the Oilers anyway. That’s ok because no one they sign is going to play 25 minutes a game.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LTyou mentioned among scouts the top 3 centres are very close ,however if you add up the latest mock drafts4 of them.Craig ButtonsCorey PronmanFuture Considerations and ISS. Iknow Bob M is not there.

    AE–6

    SR–8

    SB–12

    WN– 21

    MDC–22

    LD–22

    Draisaitlis not eventhe consensus #4.

    I’m not saying Oilers should not pick Draisaitl at #3.But among these mocks he is not close.

    I mean close in terms of points and the things we can know. I give special attention to McKenzie and Red Line lists, and honestly they have Draisaitl outside the top four but in the range. I think we have to decide if that’s a big deal. I don’t think it is, others clearly feel it’s a major issue.

    I’d suggest it’s just extremely difficult to give strong reasons for not taking Draisaitl, as a fan. He’s in the range, and I’m not sure giving special consideration to these other sources lends strength to either side of the argument.

  53. hoser313 says:

    rickithebear:
    Simple question when talking Dmen.

    Are they a easy landing runway to the front of the net.
    Or do they make the opposition Circle
    Petry (circle)
    Marincin (circle and circle)
    Healthy Ference (circle)
    Unhealthy Ference ( huge runway)
    Coburn (Runway)
    Josi (Forces them to circle butis the easiest landings)

    I want the Perimeter Dmen.

    This all day.

  54. nycoil says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Sure, I am all for signing Stralman. But in a cap world there is a concern about quality of player relative to price paid. If LT is right and he is going to get paid (by Edmonton) like a top pairing D-man, then that does become a concern. Is he an upgrade on what we have? Absolutely. Younger and better than many alternatives? Yes. Sign the man, but don’t pay $6m or $7m for him. He doesn’t have the track record for it. If we sign him to be Petry’s 2nd pairing partner and he outperforms that, great.

    The one thing I disagree with you on is that giving him more minutes doesn’t hurt him. We don’t know that. Players get worn down if they play too much. Some guys have the fitness levels and strength for it, like Duncan Keith, and others don’t. You could be right in that it may not hurt him, but we don’t know that until he does play that much.

  55. bigbadbruin24 says:

    Might be time to revisit the Coyotes again regarding Yandle.

    Maybe something like Yandle, Samuelsson and #12 for Gagner, Marincin and #3

    It would knock a couple of items off the “to do” list.

    Oilers get a top pairing d-man with a good cap hit for two years, a young guy on the cusp of being ready who they know well from his time with the Oil Kings and I’m sure they could settle on a decent kid picking in the 12 spot.

    Coyotes get a forward who can help them out, a young defensemen who looks to be ready to contribute and assuming Ekblad is gone they can take whichever Sam remains at number three.

    Might not be enough from the Phoenix point of view depending how much they value the top three placing in the draft.

    Thoughts?

  56. godot10 says:

    the_Fab_5:
    that line-up is way too good to be true!

    the more I think about it, the more I want Leon…if he can turn into anything close to Kopitar, he’d be an excellent 1-2 punch of the middle with RNH and we’d be set for years down the middle

    Coburn would cost the 3rd OV though hey? any way we can get a similar d-man that won’t cost us our pick?

    Draisaitl could be Kopitar, but he also could be Bonk or Holik.

  57. Mr DeBakey says:

    At some point, Lowe might say “hell, Coffey, Risto and I could barely shave when we hit the ice back in ’79″

    In those times, 16 of 21 teams made the play-offs.
    Of the 21, 4 were freshly-ravaged WHA teams, one was coached by Don Cherry and another was the Washington Capitals.

    * * *
    No one wants to discuss Stralman’s increase in minutes and qual comp and how that might impact him?

    Plus he’s moving from the 1st Division to the Premier League. He’ll need a good/decent partner. Klefbom probably isn’t the answer.
    Its not necessary that he excel in ALL 3 roles, two of three is plenty.

    * * *
    If MacT negotiates well, Coburn shouldn’t cost the #3. Philly has about $11M to sign 7 guys including Schenn.

    Have you included Proger’s LTIR waiver in those numbers? Their Cap situation isn’t as bad as it seems at first glance.

  58. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I wonder about his minutes. Can he handle 25 against top level comp? He’s going toget paid like he can.

    Wtih Stralman or whatever vet they acquire, and Petry, and Schultz, it can be a 20-20-20 split.

  59. Henry says:

    Hall Awaits:
    Henry,

    10 teams he can list that he doesn’t want to go to. Edmonton would be a desired destination for him is what Stauffer said during the draft last year. Coburn being an Alberta guy of course.

    Thanks!

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    russ99:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    It’s a pretty minor gripe, but Ford is a third line grinder guy, and he’ll end up taking a spot from one of the kids.

    I’d rather see skilled veteran forwards added to give the Barons a more complete roster. It’s hard for players to fully develop when they’re playing in less than optimal roles, or in situations they’ll rarely see when they make the jump to the big club.

    Kind of like with Alex Giroux. Get a veteran AHL guy who can score and offer the carrot of possible NHL time if we have injuries.

    I’m not quite sure what you mean here.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0060562014.html

    Ford was the team’s 4th highest scorer this past season and played in the top 6 for most of the year.

    He’s not there to provide NHL call-up duty. He’s there to mentor the kids and give the coach someone reliable to lean on.

    From a meta perspective, these guys are really valuable because they don’t eat into the 50 man roster (like a guy on a 2-way NHL contract you propose) and offer those other qualities I outlined.

    I think after MacT laid out his plan to “offer more direction to OKC” he meant

    1. no more ringers like Cheechoo who take up ice time and help win, but don’t necessarily mentor about 2-way game.

    2. giving the ELC kids with an honest shot at the NHL (not long shots) room to operate.

    that means filling out your roster with AHL vets (which is always the case anyway, no team has enough honest to goodness prospects to fill out an AHL team) who can mentor without costing in other areas.

  61. Henry says:

    Caramel Obvious: This is my greatest fear.This is the kind of shit we should worry about.Not stuff like Engeland or Fraser.

    My minimum price for taking Richards is Toffoli attached to him and Gagner going the other way, and even then I’d think hard about it.

    Absolutely right.

  62. slopitch says:

    How about this…

    Yak+#3+Klefbom
    for
    #1 and Barkov

    Draft Ekblad and you have size in both 1D and 2C. And Barkov is a helluva player. In this scenario, Gagner becomes 2RW.

    4-93-14
    57-Barkov-89
    23-27-57
    TODO-26-9

    85-2
    TODO-19
    21-Ekblad
    TODO

    Ideally you dont move Klefbom but I dont think FLA does it anyways. I guess the idea here is that if your moving a player of the calibre of Yak, I think you need to solve both top pairing D and 2C. If we cant solve both either of these issues, the prudent play might be to wait on Nurse and Draisatl another year.

    Swing big :D

  63. speeds says:

    godot10: Wtih Stralman or whatever vet they acquire,and Petry, and Schultz, it can be a 20-20-20 split.

    This is the point I’d have looked at making LT, that they would still have Petry and Schultz – no reason for Stralman to play 25minutes.

    Which isn’t to say he couldn’t do it, NYR has a quality D and they may just be spreading the minutes out in a way another team wouldn’t be able to. Stralman is playing pretty similar ES minutes to everyone else in NYR, doesn’t play much on the PP but that’s OK, Schultz would here anyways.

  64. Rondo says:

    Why do teams that need D-men want to trade their best D-men or 2nd pairing D-men?

  65. Bag of Pucks says:

    russ99:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Move the UFAs up to the third line, add 2 veteran defensemen and deal Gagner, and you may have something.

    Also, I think long-term Fasth is going to be the starter. He has the SEL pedigree and Scrivens’ numbers with the Kings this year was a bit of an outlier.

    Though it’s nice to have two capable goalie options again, and who knows how good they could be with even an NHL average defense corps.

    I’m holding two hearts Ace high in my hand so all I have to do is flop 3 hearts and I’m set!

    I think we have to be realistic about what MacT can feasibly accomplish in one off-season. If he can plug the two MAJOR holes on his two do list (a stud D and an outscoring two way C), that’s a phenomenal offseason imo.

    In reality, he’ll more likely address the depth issues you’re mentioning here, we’ll draft a C that won’t immediately help to replace Gagner and we’ll run with the youth brigade on D.

    In terms of reaching the playoffs, at some point players like Nuge, Yak, Schultz, Fasth need to take their play to the next level. Those performance gains are huge. If Yakupov morphed into a true 1st line outscorer next season or Schultz a legitimate pp qb without the defensive atrocities, you’re looking at a substantially improved team.

    I actually like Gordon and Hendricks on the 3 line. For the 4th line, I ‘d targets players with strong draft pedigree who’ve recently been cast off (i.e. reclamation projects with skill AND motivation) . Kind of what the Wings did with players like Maltby, Cleary and Draper. Or what the Wild have done with Nino Niederreiter.

    Oiler mgmt is always bragging about their state of the art development infrastructure. If the hype has any substance, they should be able to identify failed prospects in other orgs and get their development path back on track in OKC.

  66. Jon K says:

    “A veteran top pairing defenseman. A real man, big time EV minutes and a history of successful sorties.”

    I would add:

    … who is not obviously on the downslope of his career.

    JW has an interesting article over at CoH about Kris Letang. To be frank, I’d offer Petry or Schultz as part of a package to obtain Letang. His value is at an all-time low, but he has an extremely impressive history of being the key to the Penguins’ transition.

    Acquire Letang, play him behind Hall every shift possible and watch the kid line’s production explode.

  67. cahill says:

    Lowetide: is club has a LOT of cap space and should be in the mix for Paul Stastny. Again, another option to put an immediate check beside a key item on MacT’s to do list. Yes, we dodged a bullet with Clarkson, but the need is so huge and the hole so vast at 1C, I think this is that rare situation where a massive overpay is warranted.

    I don’t think you are looking at Stralman to have a huge increase in minutes.
    Stralman simply cut into Schultz’s minutes (19 ES TOI/G) at evens and alloy the Oilers to deploy Schultz in offensive situations.

    Just looking at how the Rangers deploy their defense during this seasons playoffs from a purely TOI perspective.

    Rangers Deploy 6 Defenseman:
    Player ES TOI/G SH TOI/G PP TOI/G
    McDonaugh 17:52 3:10 4:09
    Girardi 17:46 2:55 2:11
    Staal 18:09 2:31 0:16
    Stralman 17:16 2:28 0:26
    Klein 12:41 0:14 0:08
    DiazMoore 12:22 0:26 0:01

    Obviously the Oilers wouldn’t have McDonaugh so I think the Oilers best strategy would be to roll all their defense pairings at around 15 – 17 ES TOI/G

    Stralman/? / Petry/Marincin would play roughly 2 – 3 minutes a night on SH TOI/G.

    Schultz could play the McDonaugh PP TOI. And then your really just looking for Stralman, Marincin, Klefbom, Petry to fill out the additional PP minutes.

    In total Stralman is only going to get 22 minutes per night. Which is only a small increase from what he did this year which was 19:30 minutes during regular season and 20 minute during the playoffs.

    You would kind of deploy Stralman the way that the Avs deploy Hejda. Or the way that TBL deploys Matt Carle.

    Edit: I think I replied to the wrong LT post. But whatever this is about the TOI increase for Stralman.

  68. TheOtherJohn says:

    Love the projected 2014/15 roster. Love it. Real NHL bodies in most slots.

    Cannot imagine that we sign Grabovski, Kulemin and acquire Colin Wilson and Coburn in 1 offseason but great: lets do it

    Agree with the below completely.:

    7.Get Petry signed long term.
    8.Sign Schultz but DO NOT break the bank.

    Think the Oilers have priority to sign J SChultz for long term and will pay big $$. Care less about Petry. Hope I am wrong.

  69. rickithebear says:

    nycoil:
    Re: Stralman– I watch him probably more than most on this board?

    I’ve read the Dellow article where the math shows he is better than McDonagh. I know we don’t like “saw him good/bad” as a way of rating a player here. So please take my opinion with a huge grain of salt.

    He’d look terrific on our 2nd pairing playing 20mins a night. He won’t look good on the top pairing in the West playing 25mins a night.He is like a left side Petry, but with better straight line skating (and Petry is no slouch on ice). By the way, I think if Petry were on the Rangers in that system, with the D-pairings and goalie they have, people would be talking about how good he is all around the league.

    I like Stralman. I don’t think he has the strength to handle top pairing minutes in the Pacific Division; I do think he has all the skills necessary to handle a #3 or #4 role.

    The man has had very little stability in his career. See below
    2009-Jul-27 Traded from Toronto Maple Leafs with Colin Stuart and round 7 pick in the 2012 draft to Calgary Flames for Wayne Primeau and round 2 pick in the 2011 draft (Brandon Saad)

    2009-Sep-28 Traded from Calgary Flames to Columbus Blue Jackets for round 3 pick in the 2010 draft (Max Reinhart). At this time, Calgary was putting him on waivers as well after trading for him and he failed to make the team!

    Then he signed with the Rangers in 2011. He is getting paid $1.8M only this year.

    I think he’d pick somewhere based on term. 5 years x $4M would be a nice payday for a guy in his situation. Make it 6 and you might get him. I wouldn’t go too much higher than that on cap hit though. And I’d still go after another vet D-man for the top 4. (Markov on a short-term, high cap hit deal? I fear Niskanen is going to get something stupid like 6 x $6m and that’s too much)

    Markov-Marincin
    Stralman-Petry
    Ference-Schultz

    if you can’t get a true top pair blue liner, the next best thing until the cavalry arrives would be to have at least two 2A pairings. Make it 22 mins / 21 mins / 17 mins or something along those lines.

    Even Tough Comp D average 16:58 TOI
    the best PP D average 2:58 TOI
    and the best pker’s 2:49 TOI

    Get me Strong EVGA Dmen facing 1st comp who are good EVP Dmen who can PK.
    I want a Dman who makes a diffrence on the PP and Can get top 20 EVGA/60 facing 2nd/3rd comp.

    Alot of #1 big minutes Dmen. have Shitty EVGA ( Weber; See runway). or get paid lots of money to get alot of points on a PP that may not be better GF/60 with them on it.

    Even play you want the best EVGA/60 Dmen you can get who can face the toughest comp possible while protecting the box.
    They need strong Even assist rates reflective of strong zone movement.
    2X48min is available for filling by 6 Dmen
    Ference
    Petry
    Schultz all top 50 last 3 years.
    Marincin last half season EVA pace was top 30.

    And elite Pk dmen cause preventinhg PP goals is not payed like Getting PP goals but has equal effect relative to PPGF/60.
    2 X 6min is available between 4 Strong Pk Dmen please

    Run a 4 Fwd PP with a strong shot Dman. So 6 min Available. 4min for 1st D and 2min for 2nd

    PK
    j. schultz #3
    diaz #4
    Fayne #14
    Strahlman #20
    Bellimore #27
    Coburn #44
    Marincin #60
    Petry #81
    Ferecne #84
    Josi #85

    Tough Comp EVGA
    Bellimore #6 1.73 1st comp 4th team
    Niskanen #9 1.81 1st comp 1st team
    Suter #10 1.82 1st comp 1st team
    Marincin #21 2.07 1st comp 4th team
    Markov #22 2.08 1st comp 3rd team
    OEL #25 2.16 1st comp 2nd team
    Gunnarson #27 2.18 1st comp 1st team
    Salo #28 2.19 1st comp 3rd team
    Boychuck #31 2.20 1st comp 1st team
    Pietrangelo #32 2.21 1st comp 1st team
    Girardi #37 2.26 1st comp 1st team
    Hamonic #39 2.30 1st comp 3rd team
    ————————————————————- Below Average toughcomp EVGA/60
    Alzner #41 2.34 1st comp 2nd team
    Fayne #49 2.44 1st comp 2nd Team
    Phanuef #53 2.53 1st comp 1st team
    Gilbert #55 2.60 1st comp 1st team
    Subban #59 2.70 1st comp 1st team
    Josi #61 2.78 1st comp 1st team
    Weber #63 2.79 1st comp 2nd team

    Even points /60
    Niskanen #5 1.24
    Gilbert #10 1.04
    J. Schultz #29 0.86 .96 the year before.
    Ference #56 0.64 ferecn eaveraged .99 2 years before top 15
    Petry #66 0.54 Aversaged 0.84 2 years before top 30

  70. Caramel Obvious says:

    godot10: Draisaitl could be Kopitar, but he also could be Bonk or Holik.

    If Radek Bonk was Draisatl’s floor I’d be ecstatic. Bonk was a very good player. The floor for any of these guys is lower than that.

  71. RexLibris says:

    Flames blogger Christian Roastis just posted an article on Flames’ draft probables over at FN.

    He writes the following about Draisaitl, which I offer here as a counterpoint to what many of us here have been saying about Draisaitl, as well as to provide the opportunity for regular readers to contradict:

    Don’t get me wrong, Draisaitl is a very good hockey player and a quality prospect; I just don’t think in 10 years he’ll be on same level as everyone else. If he can’t dangle through guys at the NHL level he has no fallback characteristics to make him an effective NHLer. If he can’t undress defenders standing still – as he’s done multiple times in every one of my viewings – in the show, he’s toast.

    Essentially if he can’t be the offensive force he is now in the WHL, he has no other qualities that will make him a valuable asset, and in my opinion his skills don’t have as a good a probability to translate as others do. It’s an unnecessary gamble to take for a team that can’t afford to miss with this selection. Many disagree with me and he might just turn into a 90 point guy, but that’s just my opinion

    He goes on to say “Draisaitl’s style of play mimics that of Pavel Datysuk almost to a “T” and if the Flames do end up taking him, he’ll be fun to watch …. at rookie camp. He can have the puck on a string on multiple occasions during a shift and his quick hands and shifty movements allow this lingering with the puck to occur without issue. Also like Datysuk, Draisaitl posses a tremendous ability to locate his teammates in obscure areas on the ice and feed them the puck through traffic.

    Then offers either Pavel Datsyuk or a German Rob Schremp as NHL comparables.

    Link is here http://flamesnation.ca/2014/6/4/flames-draft-probables

    For the record, I’m okay with Draisaitl (although I’d be heartbroken if it meant handing Sam Reinhart to the Flames) and I recognize that we’ve already heard from others around the league with arguably more information than Christian, but this was the first time I had heard or read a criticism of Draisaitl that focused on perhaps a dearth of skills by variety that could limit his professional career and so felt it was worth bringing here for discussion.

  72. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I wonder about his minutes. Can he handle 25 against top level comp? He’s going toget paid like he can.

    Check out the link, he handles them very well.

    Better than McDonough.

    I don’t think Stralman will get paid though LT.

    He’s famous in the fancy stats community, but I don’t think he’s nearly as famous in the general NHL populous.

    I’d eat my hat if he gets over $4MM and that’s a great price for what he can do.

  73. Woodguy says:

    nycoil:
    Re: Stralman– I watch him probably more than most on this board?

    I’ve read the Dellow article where the math shows he is better than McDonagh. I know we don’t like “saw him good/bad” as a way of rating a player here. So please take my opinion with a huge grain of salt. I think McDonagh, Staal, Girardi take a lot of the heat off Stralman despite what the math/zone starts say. I think Stralman is great, don’t get me wrong, but swap roles with McDonagh and I am confident he will suffer.

    He’d look terrific on our 2nd pairing playing 20mins a night. He won’t look good on the top pairing in the West playing 25mins a night.He is like a left side Petry, but with better straight line skating (and Petry is no slouch on ice). By the way, I think if Petry were on the Rangers in that system, with the D-pairings and goalie they have, people would be talking about how good he is all around the league.

    I like Stralman. I don’t think he has the strength to handle top pairing minutes in the Pacific Division; I do think he has all the skills necessary to handle a #3 or #4 role.

    The man has had very little stability in his career. See below
    2009-Jul-27 Traded from Toronto Maple Leafs with Colin Stuart and round 7 pick in the 2012 draft to Calgary Flames for Wayne Primeau and round 2 pick in the 2011 draft (Brandon Saad)

    2009-Sep-28 Traded from Calgary Flames to Columbus Blue Jackets for round 3 pick in the 2010 draft (Max Reinhart). At this time, Calgary was putting him on waivers as well after trading for him and he failed to make the team!

    Then he signed with the Rangers in 2011. He is getting paid $1.8M only this year.

    I think he’d pick somewhere based on term. 5 years x $4M would be a nice payday for a guy in his situation. Make it 6 and you might get him. I wouldn’t go too much higher than that on cap hit though. And I’d still go after another vet D-man for the top 4. (Markov on a short-term, high cap hit deal? I fear Niskanen is going to get something stupid like 6 x $6m and that’s too much)

    Marincin-Markov
    Stralman-Petry
    Ference-Schultz

    if you can’t get a true top pair blue liner, the next best thing until the cavalry arrives would be to have at least two 2A pairings. Make it 22 mins / 21 mins / 17 mins or something along those lines.

    I was on the fence about whether Stralman could graduate to toughs as well.

    Read the post I linked to earliier.

    Breaks out the different situations very, very nicely.

    Stralman looks like the real deal.

    He won’t get paid a ton though.

    He’s not famous and doesn’t bring near enough offence to get paid by NHL GMs.

    This is exactly the type of Dman who is undervalued due to lack of boxcars and size.

    I bet he’s sign long term for $3.5

  74. Woodguy says:

    The reason I was supposing that Stralman could graduate to toughs was how well he’s been doing against 2nd comp.

    He’s killing it against them.

    Then after I read this it became more clear that he was worth a shot (same post as earlier)

    http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2014/6/4/5778722/deployment-of-the-ranger-defencemen

    The writer did not set out to prove Straman a top pairing D.

    The writer set out to examine the Rags D and according to the writer:

    That didn’t exactly match my expectations. Strålman has by far been the most effective against top competition, while Girardi has been the worst among our top-4.

    Read the post, there is a ton there.

  75. Truth says:

    The one thing MacT cannot do is come away from the draft saying he crossed off one of the items on your list. Nor can he promote someone within the organization to fill one of the positions on that list.

    I can see it now at his press conference at the end of training camp:

    MacT, at the end of the season you said your goal was to acquire a veteran top-level defenseman. You didn’t sign anyone. “Well, that’s because we were so lucky for Ekblad to fall to us in the draft. He’s young but he and Andrew have played so well together in training camp we are comfortable with them playing 23 + minutes a night out there. He’s practically a veteran already and Ference provides such great leadership that I don’t have any concerns with our back end this season”

    MacT, you did not acquire any additional centers or big wingers in the off-season, I thought that was a position you mentioned that needed improvement. ” Well, you see,Gagner never recovered from his jaw injury. He’s a much more effective player than what he showed last year. We felt that he suits the role of our 2C just as good as anyone we could have picked up and the asking price was just so high. Also, we did sign Pitlick as a RFA. Did you guys see how he was playing prior to injury last season? He was excellent. He never really did recover last year and he has been just flying out there in training camp this fall. Scored a goal against the U of A boys, and they’re a tough team. I see him slotting in along with Yak and Gagner on the second line.”

  76. WeirsBeard says:

    LT,
    What are your expectations regarding MacT completing the items on your checklist?

    What’s reasonable?

    I think 2 solid forwards and 1 top pairing D or else it is failure, right?

  77. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    The reason I was supposing that Stralman could graduate to toughs was how well he’s been doing against 2nd comp.

    He’s killing it against them.

    Then after I read this it became more clear that he was worth a shot(same post as earlier)

    http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2014/6/4/5778722/deployment-of-the-ranger-defencemen

    The writer did not set out to prove Straman a top pairing D.

    The writer set out to examine the Rags D and according to the writer:

    That didn’t exactly match my expectations. Strålman has by far been the most effective against top competition, while Girardi has been the worst among our top-4.

    Read the post, there is a ton there.

    Well if he comes in under $4 million I can buy into it. Good find. I wonder how far back he goes being this effective?

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris,

    thanks for bringing this to my attention.

    This is the “range of skills” argument. And, it think it is a valid line of questioning on any player.

    My question regarding Draisaitl in this respect is what makes the analyst restrict Draisaitl’s skill set to “dangling”?

    In most reports I’ve read, Draisaitl’s ability to dangle around D, or break down D with slick stick work isn’t one of his major talents, though it’s not something he seems to lack.

    this summation reads about right:

    Leon Draisaitl is an intelligent playmaking forward with good offensive instincts. The German import is effective in puck possession using his lengthy frame to shield away defenders and maintain puck control. He displays top-end vision and can read the play ahead of his peers.

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2014/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Leon-Draisaitl

    Bruce reflects the same qualities:

    The big centre (listed as 6’1, 209) was neither overly physically aggressive nor a speedster, but largely impressed this observer with his overall command of the game. The play went through his stick constantly, and for the most part, good or at least promising things developed thereafter. He showed a couple of bursts of what I would term “situational speed” but his A game is clearly one of controlling the play rather than pushing it. As I said to my voice recorder at one point, “When the puck is on Draisaitl’s stick, he owns it. Even if there’s a guy in his kitchen he’s in full control.” And later, “Very calm with the puck on his stick, not quite nonchalant but knows how much time he’s got, which in this league is a lot. Big and strong and can dangle the puck out of reach of the man who’s on him, pick his spot and distribute… A lot of subtle stuff, some little mistakes at the end of shifts, but with the puck on his stick he makes a lot of good decisions.”

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/03/19/scouting-report-top-prospect-leon-draisaitl-impresses-in-biggest-game-of-the-season/

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Some more reports I’ve used over the year:

    http://www.ontheforecheck.com/2014/2/2/5370820/leon-draisaitl-nhl-draft-2014-profile

    (lots of good, balanced accounts of him there… all mention puck management and passing/vision)

    this fingernail report is to the points:

    “Leon Draisaitl uses his strong frame to protect the puck and patiently find open teammates, making him a constant threat in the offensive zone. ”

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/draft-blog/2014-nhl-draft-reinharts-elite-vision-anticipation/

  80. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Leon Draisaitl is a big centre with excellent reach and stickhandling ability. He protects the puck very well, especially in the cycle game. He also has the vision and the passing skill to finds an open teammate with a quick and accurate pass. Draisaitl also has a strong and accurate wrist shot, with a very good release, leading to goal scoring ability. Draisaitl is not afraid to take the puck to the net, and has the soft hands to finish when he gets there. What is most impressive though is his ability to read the play, and be in the right spot at the right time. Draisaitl has very impressive hockey sense.
    Draisaitl has greatly improved his skating since coming to North America and it is no longer a weakness. He seems to be a better skater every time I see him. He has above average speed and acceleration. His balance is extremely good and allows him to fight through checks and he is tough to knock off the puck. Draisaitl also has good agility which helps him to get by defenders.
    Despite his size, Draisaitl is not overall physical. He uses his body to shield opponents from the puck when cycling and is not afraid to take a hit, or to get in the dirty areas of the ice. However he is not known for being a big hitter, or for initiating the physical play. That said he doesn’t shy away from the battles if they come to him. He has decent faceoff skills and is a solid defensive player for his age.
    Draisaitl may need one more year of junior before being ready for the NHL, however he has a very high ceiling and could be a first line player in the NHL. His game, not in talent but in terms of style, is comparable to a Henrik Sedin.

    http://lastwordonsports.com/2014/04/06/nhl-draft-profile-5-leon-draisaitl/

    the themes are pretty repetitive.

    ability to possess and distribute the puck.

    those are his dominant qualities.

    Sometimes his speed, power, size, dangling, tenacity, etc. are mentioned… but as his minor attributes, or as things he needs to improve.

  81. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’m not familiar with Christian’s background with prospects but I believe he has seen, in person, a fair number of them in junior, hence my passing along his perspective.

    For the record, Sugar-Tits in German is Zucker-Titten, although I’m sure it loses something in translation.

    Just thought we should have that on-hand for future reference, you know, in case he ever scores a hat-trick against the Flames or something. :)

  82. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=453945

    Doesn’t look like Edler is going anywhere

  83. Gerta Rauss says:

    I’m all for bringing in a RH dman to bump Schultz to the 3rd pairing-Stralman, Letang, Fayne-doesn’t matter, I’d take any of them as long as Schultz is playing 3rd pairing at EV

    I wonder if Phoenix might be interested in Gagner..maybe if we retain a little salary.

    Gagner for Z Michalek..?

  84. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    I’m all for bringing in a RH dman to bump Schultz to the 3rd pairing-Stralman, Letang, Fayne-doesn’t matter, I’d take any of them as long as Schultz is playing 3rd pairing at EV

    I wonder if Phoenix might be interested in Gagner..maybe if we retain a little salary.

    Gagner for Z Michalek..?

    Actually, Bruce McCurdy had an interesting take on dumping Schultz to 3rd pairing during today’s Lowdown. He felt it might limit Schultz’s ice time with the really skilled guys. It’s an interesting idea, and worth discussion imo.

  85. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’m not familiar with Christian’s background with prospects but I believe he has seen, in person, a fair number of them in junior, hence my passing along his perspective.

    For the record, Sugar-Tits in German is Zucker-Titten, although I’m sure it loses something in translation.

    Just thought we should have that on-hand for future reference, you know, in case he ever scores a hat-trick against the Flames or something.

    I’m not discounting his reporting. I’ll add it to the pile.

    I was just noting that he seems to have an outliers opinion on Draisaitl. I don’t see him described as reliant on dangling to create offence. It seems to me his puck possession skills are attributed to his positioning and patience and stick work (though not explicitly in some one-on-one show of skill).

    The Schremp comparable is interesting. I hadn’t heard it before.

    The problem with Schremp always was that did rely on dekes and dangles and a ton of space. hence his success on the PP:

    http://canucksarmy.com/2009/8/24/rob-schremp-in-his-draft-year/trash

    Draisaitl seems to be the opposite (though both are described as “creative” or having “vision”). He thrives in tight corners because he’s comfortable protecting the puck (at least at the junior level) with his size. And, he doesn’t seem to have any trouble scoring at evens.

    Schremp’s EV scoring in draft year: 63GP – 14G – 14A – 28PTS (0.444 PPG)
    Draisaitl’s 64GP – 25G – 36A – 62PTS (0.969 PPG)

  86. Woodguy says:

    Here’s the reason Stralman won’t see north of $4MM imo.

    Here’s his salary history:

    SEASON AHL SALARY  NHL SALARY  P. BONUSES 
    2007-08 $62,500.00 $565,000.00 $150,000.00
    2008-09 $62,500.00 $615,000.00 $100,000.00
    2009-10 $62,500.00 $665,000.00 $100,000.00
    2010-11 $1,950,000.00 $1,950,000.00 $0.00
    2011-12 $900,000.00 $900,000.00 $0.00
    2012-13 $1,600,000.00 $1,600,000.00 $0.00
    2013-14 $1,800,000.00 $1,800,000.00 $0.00

    Stralman was traded from TOR to CAL in summer 2009, then flipped to CBJ that same summer.

    Stralman made $1.95MM in his first non ELC year in CBJ and Howson decided to not qualify him. (another reason EDM may not even look at him)

    Stralman then got on for a 1 year $900K RFA contract with NYR. Cheap test drive Sather likes.

    They liked him enough to give him 2 years at $1.7MM

    A 2nd pairing Dman who doesn’t score doesn’t get north of $4MM.

    HIs history of not qualified by CBJ will still hurt him. NHL GM’s a very good with the remembering the past (not as good as identifying the future)

    You can sign Stralman for 2nd pairing money.

  87. bendelson says:

    mumbai max,

    I too have enjoyed the Jays this season…
    I will correct one thing you mentioned however.

    They are killing it with starting pitching (big surprise and likely unsustainable) and at the plate with that strong ‘murderer’s row’ lineup but the bullpen has been weak. Outside of Janssens (who has been perfect when not injured) they have been a collective disappointment and sit towards the bottom of the league in effectiveness… interesting given this was considered a big strength of the club.

    Go Jays!
    Oh yeah, and the Oilers too.

  88. godot10 says:

    Caramel Obvious: If Radek Bonk was Draisatl’s floor I’d be ecstatic.Bonk was a very good player.The floor for any of these guys is lower than that.

    Less than 200 career goals in 1000 games. About 0.5 PPG. i.e A very good to elite 3rd line centre. That would be a disappointment for a top 3 pick. Bonk was a slightly worse than Gagner offensively but with size and defensive ability.

    I just wanted to point out as dreams of Kopitar float around in people’s heads that there were other big high scoring average skating European centres who did not quite meet expectations.

    And remember that birthdate. He is one of the older players in the draft.

    Back to Bonk. His best offensive years were where he was carried by Hossa.

  89. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide,

    I’ll have to listen to the interview (I’ve been negligent of doing this…sorry!!!)

    I guess it depends on who he is paired with-if they can find a LD that is not named Ference, sure, but we’ve all witnessed his play at even strength.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Well if he comes in under $4 million I can buy into it. Good find. I wonder how far back he goes being this effective?

    Here’s his RelCor over his career:

    2007-2008 Season -2.8
    2008-2009 Season 12.1
    2009-2010 Season 9.8
    2010-2011 Season 4.7
    2011-2012 Season 0.4
    2012-2013 Season 15.8
    2013-2014 Season 11.2

    Only negative was as a raw rookie.

    Was a +4.7 RelCor when he played mostly with Tyutin the year Howson let him walk.

    Ostensibly he played firsts with Tyutin and 2nds with Clitsome and Methot: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=702&withagainst=true&season=2009-10&sit=5v5

    Stralman had a 967 PDO that year and was -11.

    I wouldn’t doubt that was one of the reasons they didn’t re-up him.

    From a Fancy Stats only angle he was excellent the year Howson let him walk after making $1.95MM

    He’s the real deal.

    And he’ll be cheap.

    I bet no one wants to give him term.

    He turns 28 in August.

    I’d do 4 years at $3.25 and bet he bites.

  91. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Actually, Bruce McCurdy had an interesting take on dumping Schultz to 3rd pairing during today’s Lowdown. He felt it might limit Schultz’s ice time with the really skilled guys. It’s an interesting idea, and worth discussion imo.

    You can play Shultz with the gifted kids in ozone starts and he should feast with the secondary scoring line (assuming MacT finds a C. Give him 1st PP.) Spot duty elsewhere. (lots of ozone) That’s 19 minutes a night in the right spot.

  92. Ca$h-Money! says:

    godot10,

    Correct me if I’m wrong (absolutely 0 research to back up the following comment) but didn’t Bonk spend his entire career in the low scoring section of NHL history? Seems like 0.5ppg average from a center in the late 90s era is better than it would be today… not sure how much that’s worth.

  93. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Actually, Bruce McCurdy had an interesting take on dumping Schultz to 3rd pairing during today’s Lowdown. He felt it might limit Schultz’s ice time with the really skilled guys. It’s an interesting idea, and worth discussion imo.

    It doesn’t if you have a 4th line that can take a D-zone draws (except against top lines) and if you run a soft minutes line with lots of O-zone starts.

  94. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: I just wanted to point out as dreams of Kopitar float around in people’s heads that there were other big high scoring average skating European centres who did not quite meet expectations.

    that’s your own projection.

    the_Fab_5: the more I think about it, the more I want Leon…if he can turn into anything close to Kopitar, he’d be an excellent 1-2 punch of the middle with RNH and we’d be set for years down the middle

    that’s the actual comment without your straw men crammed on top.

  95. godot10 says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    godot10,

    Correct me if I’m wrong (absolutely 0 research to back up the following comment) but didn’t Bonk spend his entire career in the low scoring section of NHL history?Seems like 0.5ppg average from a center in the late 90s era is better than it would be today… not sure how much that’s worth.

    Over 25% of his games were post-2005 lockout year. His best offensive years were when Ottawa was stacked….Chara, Phillips and Redden in their prime, Yashin, Hossa, Havlat, Alfredsson, MacEachern, Arvedsson.

    Bonk was what we hope Anton Lander becomes. A 3rd line centre who can play with skilled players if necessary.

  96. nycoil says:

    Woodguy,

    I drew the same conclusions as you with respect to cost to sign him based on his salary history and lack of stability in his career. Heck,Calgary was putting him on waivers after trading for him earlier that summer before CBJ stepped up to trade a pick to get him. I hope $3.5M is enough, but I think he’d be looking for term. I’d be OK with going as much as $4M per over 6 years.

    And I like him. Think he is underrated while Girardi overrated, just like your link shows. Remember when people were talking about trading for Girardi prior to his extension? I was advising against it. He is like Jason Smith at best when he is on. When he’s not on, he’s not great. And now he is making $5.5M per because you know, NHL GMs still overvalue truculence, size, grit, intangibles over other things.

  97. Woodguy says:

    nycoil:
    Woodguy,

    I drew the same conclusions as you with respect to cost to sign him based on his salary history and lack of stability in his career. Heck,Calgary was putting him on waivers after trading for him earlier that summer before CBJ stepped up to trade a pick to get him. I hope $3.5M is enough, but I think he’d be looking for term. I’d be OK with going as much as $4M per over 6 years.

    And I like him. Think he is underrated while Girardi overrated, just like your link shows. Remember when people were talking about trading for Girardi prior to his extension? I was advising against it. He is like Jason Smith at best when he is on. When he’s not on, he’s not great. And now he is making $5.5M per because you know, NHL GMs still overvalue truculence, size, grit, intangibles over other things.

    Nailed it.

    Truculence, size, grit and intangibles get paid seriously in the NHL and it doesn’t pay off.

    That market is over valued for sure and Sather will not sign a better Dman (Stralman) because he gave more to a worse Dman in Girardi than he ever would Stralman.

    The largest market that is under valued in the NHL is good D who can move the puck, stop the cycle and make the first past quickly and accurately under pressure, but are 6’0″ or shorter and do not deliver thundering checks.

  98. HallDown says:

    I like the idea of this:

    Hall RNH Eberle
    Perron M.Richards Gagner
    Moss Draisaitl Yakupov
    Lander Gordon Hendricks

    Mike Richards may be attainable for cheap, as Kings don’t want expensive players in return. He also does not have a NMC.
    Draisaitl can learn the ropes in a nice cushy line, Yak can continue to work on his game, we have 3 decent scoring lines, and Gagner can play wing until we can find a new home for him, unless he embraces the new job and we can enjoy his offensive talent without the DZone lapses.

  99. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: I don’t think Stralman will get paid though LT.

    As of this morning, Stralman has scored 1 goal in 102 games this season. That will limit his price point. It should also limit expectations a tad (though I agree he’s very good). But buddy scores like Ladi Smid.

  100. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: As of this morning, Stralman has scored 1 goal in 102 games this season. That will limit his price point. It should also limit expectations a tad (though I agree he’s very good). But buddy scores like Ladi Smid.

    Why do you hate Smid, Bruce?

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