SAW HIM GOOD

Many years ago I purchased a Baseball America at the Pike’s Place Market in Seattle. It was the first one I’d ever seen, and of course I read it cover to cover. Among the items inside was a story on a crusty old scout for the St. Louis Cardinals. He was tracking Dmitri Young in the article, and his scouting report talked about a great bat, baserunning issues and the mystery of his glove. Inside the article, he wrote ‘saw him good’ at the end of the article, and I’ve always remembered that phrase as a ‘catch-all’ for “I like this guy but don’t have the words.

At the exact opposite end of the spectrum is are the math people. A deal that makes sense can be sussed out via Extra Skater or Behind the Net in 15 minutes. A bad deal takes less. “Saw him Good” has no place in the math world, and math people are soundly derided by the saw him good group. It is, without putting too fine a point on it, the single least enjoyable part of my hockey experience at this time.

There is wisdom in both methods, and things to disregard in both as well. A few years ago, many experts from the math side were certain that faceoff percentage had no real impact, no matter the zone. As we learn more, there are things we held in high regard that we throw away or make less important. It’s a process, part of the information brought in and we’ve got some incredible minds working on the problem. It isn’t perfect, but it’s better than just watching by eye and we know it.

A perfect example of ‘saw him good’  versus math is Nikita Nikitin’s acquisition. I think this is clearly an example of Scott Howson arguing ‘saw him good’ and Craig MacTavish not having a better option (in his mind). It’s a tell, he doesn’t trust the math.

For readers, there are any number of ways to express the deal, I did it here, Jonathan Willis did it here and Tyler Dellow did it here. From the established media side, Mark Spector reported the story and the overpay.

There’s no way to express this deal as a net win. The Oilers overpaid in exchange for shorter term and ‘saw him good’ Howson liked him enough to convince his new boss to open the vault. He will probably play top 4 minutes for some of the season, bottom pairing for others. He’s over 200 games into his NHL career and can play a complementary role. Maybe that means he pairs with Jeff Petry and the OKC tandem of Marincin-Schultz get some NHL work.  That’s for us to observe. I suggest you read the articles above, make up your own mind and tune out the ‘you’re the dumbest man alive—stupid stupid stupid’ verbal that goes on across the Al Gore.

mirtle defenseOne wonders about how this deal will look a week from now, what with so many NHL teams on the lookout for defensive help. This is going to be a wild and crazy NHL offseason.

 OILERS PROJECTED DEFENSE

LEFT DEFENSE RIGHT DEFENSE
MARTIN MARINCIN JEFF PETRY (RFA)
NIKITA NIKITIN JUSTIN SCHULTZ (RFA)
ANDREW FERENCE OSCAR KLEFBOM

Martin Marincin remains the best LH defenseman on the team. Anyone disagree?

 

 

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126 Responses to "SAW HIM GOOD"

  1. Johnny says:

    Marincin looked good, because he has some skills and can play. But we all cut him slack, because of his youth, on the major gaffs he made last year. On any other team, with the blunders he made that directly lead to goals, he is sent back to the farm. We have had bad players for so long, we jump out of our pants as soon as we see a decent one.

    Long story short, Nikitin immediately becomes the best defensemen on this team. Marincin could regress and be terrible. Petry might be close, but not Marincin…

  2. Johnny says:

    Oops, “best LH Dman”. My bad. Still way too early in Marincins career to compare..

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    The day after Ryan Smyth was sent to Nassau County, Stauffer & Spector went on the radio and asserted that if “Ryan Smyth is your best player, you’re not good enough.”
    And the rest is history.

    If Martin Marincin is your best LHD, you’re not good enough.
    Young Martin played very well last year, but was exposed regularly [I SAW it happen].

    Please Lord, let us not be discussing the 2015 Entry Draft by Christmas.

    Petry is a RHD.

  4. spoiler says:

    Duthie talking to Tallon on TSN… sounds like he will take Ekblad if he doesn’t trade the pick. Sounds like he would prefer a RWer in a trade, but would take a defenseman.

  5. spoiler says:

    MacT on now.

  6. Acumen says:

    spoiler,

    All I want for Christmas is a Yak for Ekblad trade.

  7. Hammers says:

    LT you kind of said it yourself . He is over 200 games in the NHL and most if not all of us keep saying add NHL players .Personally I see him as a 4-5-6 who had 1 great year then was used differently by different coaches . Howson remembers the PP & PK guy and at 28 he shouldn’t have lost that . If we start talking potential all of Schultz , Petry , Marincin , Klefbom , Nurse have more potential but other than Petry none are close to 200 games . I think its only Katz play money so I don’t care . The 2 years to let these other players grow is what’s important . Heavy rumblings again from back East that Phaneuf + #8 is coming here for an AHL player + #3 . Your “D”would have a totally different look . Phaneuf / Petry ; NN & Shultz ; Ference & Marincin . I could live with that . What say you ?

  8. spoiler says:

    Lol… Bennett just did 5 pullups for Duthie in a Philly playground across the street from Geno’s.

  9. Southern Oil says:

    LT, I just listened to that exchange between Simmons & Dellow that someone linked in your ‘Oil sign Nikitin post.’ That pretty much sums up the opposing ends of the two sides (‘saw him good ‘ vs. the stats folks) i would say. LOL!

  10. spoiler says:

    Dreger: Detroit trying to get Myers out of Buffalo.

  11. "Steve Smith" says:

    1. Who’s the contract going to prevent the Oilers from acquiring (considering the term of the entire contract)?
    2. Whose development is his spot on the roster going to hold back?
    3. Who would the Oilers have acquired, but for their decision to sign Nikitin instead?
    4. Does he upgrade the defensive corps?

    From where I’m sitting, the answers are “yes”, “nobody”, “we can’t say for sure, but probably nobody”, and “yes”. So I guess I’m basically supportive of the signing, if not enthusiastic about it.

    (The difference between this and the Ference contract, which I loathe, is the term, and the expected trajectory of the player’s performance during that term.)

  12. Lowetide says:

    Southern Oil:
    LT, I just listened to that exchange between Simmons & Dellow that someone linked in your ‘Oil sign Nikitin post.’That pretty much sums up the opposing ends of the two sides (‘saw him good ‘ vs. the stats folks) i would say.LOL!

    Simmons was a bully there. I don’t like that in bloggers, and it is very poor form from a broadcaster.

  13. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Dreger: Detroit trying to get Myers out of Buffalo.

    Frack.

  14. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    1. Who’s the contract going to prevent the Oilers from acquiring (considering the term of the entire contract)?
    2. Whose development is his spot on the roster going to hold back?
    3. Who would the Oilers have acquired, but for their decision to sign Nikitin instead?
    4. Does he upgrade the defensive corps?

    From where I’m sitting, the answers are “yes”, “nobody”, “we can’t say for sure, but probably nobody”, and “yes”.So I guess I’m basically supportive of the signing, if not enthusiastic about it.

    (The difference between this and the Ference contract, which I loathe, is the term, and the expected trajectory of the player’s performance during that term.)

    You should post more.

  15. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    Because I answered the question “Who’s the contract going to prevent the Oilers from acquiring (considering the term of the entire contract)?” with “Yes”?

  16. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: You should post more.

    I thought he was a long-time poster, first-time reader, lol.

  17. nycoil says:

    When did Dellow’s comment section turn into a Facebook one? Reading the comments made me angry. Tyler deserves respect.

    As for the contents of the article, they are upsetting, too, if this is in fact the only big ticket items on the blue.

    I think maybe the post-Howson CBJ revisionism has swung too far the other way (giving him too much credit for the current team). I don’t fully trust his “saw him good.”

  18. supernova says:

    Well I don’t like the money in the contract. I had guessed it would take 3 years/ 11 million to sign him before UFA season.

    I do like signing someone with NHL games. As we have seen with the Oilers so many times they come up a empty handed in Free agency. I think the big contract comes from knowing the player, having him play at his best in front of the Management team, having a weak market and I am assuming MacT and howson have spent endless hours over the last year trying to acquire better and find it extremely difficult to do so.

    I really sincerely believe that MacT wouldn’t have signed this deal unless he had went through a really trying period ( the last year) and coming up empty handed.

    I would rather have a defenceman overpaid that should be able to handle 4 & 5 minutes than to not have him at all. I do think this was a real possibility.

    What’s the saying ” always the bridesmaid never the bride” I think that was the fear.

    Better to marry a 5 than be alone forever.

  19. spoiler says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Lowetide,

    Because I answered the question “Who’s the contract going to prevent the Oilers from acquiring (considering the term of the entire contract)?” with “Yes”?

    I thought it was because questions 1 and 3 were essentially the same.

  20. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Lowetide,

    Because I answered the question “Who’s the contract going to prevent the Oilers from acquiring (considering the term of the entire contract)?” with “Yes”?

    No. Because you made sense.

  21. David says:

    “Martin Marincin remains the best LH defenseman on the team. Anyone disagree?”

    Sample size?

  22. "Steve Smith" says:

    spoiler,

    Somewhat. #1 was supposed to be about the cap space being unavailable for other players, while #3 was supposed to be about the Oilers deciding that they’d addressed Need X, and so they would stop looking.

  23. speeds says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    So what is your answer to #1?

  24. David says:

    I’ve never understood the hate for analytics. Recording what went down seems like a good idea.

    On the flip side I’ve never understood the hate for what your eyes see. Seeing what went down is essential for recording it.

    The past few years I’ve been the worlds biggest supporter or Curtis Lazar. Because I’d go to the games and follow him all game. And I observed that when he was on the ice the Oil Kings moved the puck in the right direction and got more shots and more golden chances. I didn’t have the data to tell me exactly how much. But I know it’s happening.

    The point of advanced stats is the same as regular boxcars. To be able to recall what eyes have seen but can’t remember. I see Taylor Hall score a goal, I know he scored. The stats remind me he scored. I see the Oilers get out shot out chanced out possessed, I know all the players will have terrible corsi. The stats tell me exactly how bad.

    I think the reason there is animosity is honestly both sides think of the other side “what pricks”. Because that’s how both sides come across.

  25. David says:

    To further my point this past season the advanced stats crowd are chanting Marincin’s in the blue! Amazing!

    And the anti/non advanced stats crowd was saying wow Marincin’s playing really well! He’s already one of our best defenders!

  26. Melman says:

    After thinking about the NN contract, I wonder if it was simply a case of NN setting the bar for his next contract at $9Mish minimum thinking he’d get 3x$3.25 or so. On the other side Edm. wanted the assurance of getting a legit LHD, liked NN but were determined to stick firm at 2 years and so the result was they agreed to pay him his 9 over the 2 because not having him under contract for the 3rd year was valued more than the extra dough. I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that they could have signed him for 4 x a # slightly less than $4M.

  27. David says:

    I’m not really an advanced stats guy. I believe in them but I honestly just don’t find them that entertaining. I’m glad there are people who do a ton of work on them so I can give them a quick look see here and there but for me I just love watching hockey. Cause it’s a damn entertaining game.

    What irks me about the advanced stats guys is their disdain for saw him good. As I’ve been trying to point out is that you see what happens. If you saw a guy good then he probably was playing good.

    I think the separation is that a lot of non/anti advanced stats guys have beliefs about what it takes to win that are incorrect. Big, punishing, gritensity… Advanced stats (as well as common sense) have made many strong cases that it’s all about possession.

    So ok, I got that. It’s about possession. Now that I know that I can watch for it, with my eyes, and when I see a player good I’m seeing them driving possession and scoring chances.

  28. Southern Oil says:

    Ryan Rishaug Twitter:
    “Oilers met with reps from Petry and Schultz camp today to continue talks on new contracts.”

    Is this the first we have heard of the contract talks with both parties? I would hope for a bridge deal for Schultz and a long term one for Petry. I fear the opposite outcome.

  29. slopitch says:

    Wouldn’t be surprised if both Schultz and Petry sign before July 1. Both deals like crazy until after July 1 in which case several other teams look insane.

  30. book¡je says:

    I agree, I really dislike when one group of Oiler fans disrespectfully calls another group of Oiler fans ‘idiots’. I think we need to move past this and accept that all of us are idiots.

  31. "Steve Smith" says:

    speeds,

    You’re welcome.

  32. raventalon40 says:

    David:
    I’m not really an advanced stats guy. I believe in them but I honestly just don’t find them that entertaining. I’m glad there are people who do a ton of work on them so I can give them a quick look see here and there but for me I just love watching hockey. Cause it’s a damn entertaining game.

    What irks me about the advanced stats guys is their disdain for saw him good. As I’ve been trying to point out is that you see what happens. If you saw a guy good then he probably was playing good.

    I think the separation is that a lot of non/anti advanced stats guys have beliefs about what it takes to win that are incorrect. Big, punishing, gritensity… Advanced stats (as well as common sense) have made many strong cases that it’s all about possession.

    So ok, I got that. It’s about possession. Now that I know that I can watch for it, with my eyes, and when I see a player good I’m seeing them driving possession and scoring chances.

    I don’t think it’s disdain at all (at least from me).

    All the math does is give someone the ability to test a theory or assertion against a body of data in a standardized, repeatable way. We can all “saw him good” or “saw him bad” but are we led to believe these based on any perceivable bias? After all, we are all biased human beings and “common sense” does not protect against bias – if anything, it often strengthens belief regardless of whether those beliefs are right or wrong.

    With a set of data which can not possibly biased, one can analyze it and watch for trends. Then whatever conclusion you want to draw from the data is up to you, but math has no opinion – only patterns of recorded data.

  33. raventalon40 says:

    book¡je:
    I agree,I really dislike when one group of Oiler fans disrespectfully calls another group of Oiler fans ‘idiots’.I think we need to move past this and accept that all of us are idiots.

    :-)

  34. nycoil says:

    Jeremy Rutherford ‏@jprutherford 2m
    Quick reaction: Berglund could very well be in a #stlblues uniform next season, but timing of signing speaks to Blues prepping for trade.

  35. nycoil says:

    @imacVanSun
    #Canuck Mike Santorelli likely headed to market July 1. Agent JP Barry said team only offering 1 yr + centre can do better as UFA.

  36. David says:

    raventalon40: I don’t think it’s disdain at all (at least from me).

    All the math does is give someone the ability to test a theory or assertion against a body of data in a standardized, repeatable way. We can all “saw him good” or “saw him bad” but are we led to believe these based on any perceivable bias? After all, we are all biased human beings and “common sense” does not protect against bias – if anything, it often strengthens belief regardless of whether those beliefs are right or wrong.

    With a set of data which can not possibly biased, one can analyze it and watch for trends. Then whatever conclusion you want to draw from the data is up to you, but math has no opinion – only patterns of recorded data.

    It’s just hard for me to think bias plays into it much. You see what you see. The benefits of all the data is remembering what you saw.

  37. Lois Lowe says:

    book¡je:
    I agree,I really dislike when one group of Oiler fans disrespectfully calls another group of Oiler fans ‘idiots’.I think we need to move past this and accept that all of us are idiots.

    <3

  38. anonymous says:

    Lowetide: Simmons was a bully there. I don’t like that in bloggers, and it is very poor form from a broadcaster.

    I was listening to that, was surprised to hear he was going to be on. Pretty unprofessional, both Simmons treatment of Dellow and the character assassination of Grabovski.

  39. "Steve Smith" says:

    David: It’s just hard for me to think bias plays into it much. You see what you see.

    …and that’s where we’re going to have to part ways.

    It might be hard for you to think that, but you should give thinking it a shot anyway, on account of it being indisputably true.

  40. nycoil says:

    Tallon on sportsnet: “70% keeping the pick.” But one team’s offer goes “over and above” fair value for the pick so going to stay up thinking about it tonight.

    All smoke pointing to Vancouver. They are known to covet Reinhart, whom they interviewed 3 times. If Reinhart goes #1 and Buffalo takes Draisaitl, Oilers could be choosing between Ekblad and Bennett.

    Feels like the night before Christmas!

  41. Zangetsu says:

    Back to back 1ov canadian basketball players. 2 canadians in the top 8. Black Tyler Ennis goes 18 to my phoenix suns to fill their need of canadian point guard. I love Draftz.

  42. David says:

    “Steve Smith”: …and that’s where we’re going to have to part ways.

    It might be hard for you to think that, but you should give thinking it a shot anyway, on account of it being indisputably true.

    It’s what I’ve been trying to explain. You see what the players do. Shots, giveaways, zone starts whatever. Your eyes take them in. They get written down onto websites like extra skater by people who were “watching the game”.

    The bias has to do with what you think matters. I don’t know about you but personally I can’t convince myself after seeing the oilers get massively outshot when Fraser was on the ice that game that he had a good corsi that game.

    Bias comes into play with what you think really matters to winning a game. Person A can say “So and so has terrible possession numbers.” Person B can say “So what? He intimidates the opposing team with his physical punishing play”. The bias has to do with ideology. Not seeing what took place.

  43. Hammers says:

    nycoil:
    @imacVanSun
    #Canuck Mike Santorelli likely headed to market July 1. Agent JP Barry said team only offering 1 yr + centre can do better as UFA.

    Grab him McT . His probably ahead of Arco & Lander 2 $mil x 3 .

  44. book¡je says:

    David: It’s just hard for me to think bias plays into it much. You see what you see. The benefits of all the data is remembering what you saw.

    I heard of this one time where two guys watched the same thing and disagreed about what they saw. It was probably the only time that ever happened in all of history though so your point stands.

  45. alice13 says:

    To David’s point, even if you really see what you see, there is great value in being able to compare that which you can see to all the rest that you don’t get to see. There’s a gazillion (ok, less than a gazillion) games played each year by All the teams, and if someone offers you player X, what are you going to do, watch 200hrs of tape to figure him out? And to the extent your pro scouts do get to see some stuff, hopefully the stats provide some context to what you see, whether reinforcing or contradicting it adds weight to the evaluation.

  46. alice13 says:

    The funny thing about Simmons meltdown is that there were no fancy stats involved. “Percentage of goals scored while on ice” – that’s just good old-fashioned +/-, expressed as a ratio. What amazed me was (re Bolland) his obsession with the One Goal, with the Clutch-i-ness of it all, something that someone in the trade – hell someone in their Teens – should have disabused himself of long ago. He was like a 10-yr old kid seeing the walk-off home run.

    And the obvious counter-argument would simply be: Chicago let him go. Chicago, who he put over the top with his clutch goal.

  47. Southern Oil says:

    alice13:
    The funny thing about Simmons meltdown is that there were no fancy stats involved. “Percentage of goals scored while on ice” – that’s just good old-fashioned +/-, expressed as a ratio. What amazed me was (re Bolland) his obsession with the One Goal, with the Clutch-i-ness of it all, something that someone in the trade – hell someone in their Teens – should have disabused himself of long ago. He was like a 10-yr old kid seeing the walk-off home run.

    And the obvious counter-argument would simply be: Chicago let him go.Chicago, who he put over the top with his clutch goal.

    Simmons really showed his ass but is anyone surprised? I hope he’s right though – I hope the Leafs sign Bolland for 8 years at $4.5. They can play him alongside Clarkson.

  48. David says:

    alice13:
    To David’s point, even if you really see what you see, there is great value in being able to compare that which you can see to all the rest that you don’t get to see. There’s a gazillion (ok, less than a gazillion) games played each year by All the teams, and if someone offers you player X, what are you going to do, watch 200hrs of tape to figure him out? And to the extent your pro scouts do get to see some stuff, hopefully the stats provide some context to what you see, whether reinforcing or contradicting it adds weight to the evaluation.

    I agree. I think that I’ve never said anything against advanced stats. They are absolutely the way to go when trying to figure out what a player is really about. What I’ve been railing against is the hate for saw him good. Sample size matters whether you are just watching the games or checking the stats.

    And of we can’t trust what we see then we can’t trust advanced stats cause they were collected through people eyeballs. And if you need to check a sheet to see if the face off you just saw in the defensive zone was actually in the defensive zone… Well I don’t know what to say to you.

    I don’t think I’m really convincing anyone so I’ll end with advanced stats are great. They add a lot more sample to the games that you’ve seen and help you remember what you’ve seen. I just get rubbed the wrong way by people hating on saw him good.

  49. David says:

    Sorry LT for polluting your board with saw him good propaganda.

  50. nycoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    about that presser today

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/drafting-philosophy-impact-players/

    Rom, liked your post a lot. If I may be so bold as to offer one bit of feedback, you have so many embedded links in your post, which is great (recalling my teachers who used to say, “Cite your work”) but at the same time I think some could use a brief synopsis.

    I mean this stretch for example:
    “This was, mind you, the same draft year in which MacTavish cited analytics in trading down twice to acquire more kicks at the can. You find Lowetide and Scott Reynolds reviewing the 2013 draft here and here (right after the proceedings) and here’s a very recent piece by Bruce McCurdy covering the same ground.”

    Three links in one paragraph, and I know they are draft reviews, but I need to go click on them to see what their views are. A little comment like, “These draft reviews argue that MacTavish and/or the Oilers employed analytics in producing a better draft list for 2013. ” Or whatever it is you are trying to argue at the time–I can read along and finish your article with a better understanding of your argument, then go and click on those links for your supporting evidence. But without that little summary I don’t have enough information without clicking and reading mid-article, then returning to yours.

    Still, enjoyed it of course. Thanks!

  51. Lowetide says:

    David:
    Sorry LT for polluting your board with saw him good propaganda.

    No need to apologize. It’s an adjustment because we all have strongly held beliefs.

  52. Hammers says:

    I guess I’m old school (over 70) as analytics is math and I always said if your smart enough you can make math work for you or against you . I still believe that and the problem I see is WHO decides what league is worth what re . Swedes / Russian / Finns / Western /OHL/ Q / . When things are weighted how the *** do you really know . I still think most fans watch players / teams and decide who they think gives 110% night after night . Old fashioned yes but I always knew who left it on the ice / field / pitch . I maybe 100% out of the loop but more often than not I can see players .

  53. Hammers says:

    Forgot . Santorelli is a hidden gem that’s been overlooked .

  54. jake70 says:

    Lowetide: No need to apologize. It’s an adjustment because we all have strongly held beliefs.

    LT, David saw 4 lights!!! ;-)

  55. spoiler says:

    Could be worse than laying back and thinking of Engelland… both Konopka and John Scott are UFAs.

  56. Old School G says:

    Vincent Lecavalier on the decline would be mighty fine on our second line

  57. John Chambers says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    That was a quality post.

    FWIW to answer your question 1) the money could prevent the Oil from signing a Vanek or Stastny, or potentially trading for and signing O’Reilly, or dealing for Letang … unless Gagner’s contract goes somewhere without taking back salary.

    So yes the contract can have some negative ramifications, but that also assumes we’re in the running for a big fish which, unfortunately, is unlikely.

  58. spoiler says:

    The CFL on TSN unveiled their annual Top 50 Players list Wednesday with the Toronto Argonauts [Ricky Ray] ranked No. 1.

    Meanwhile Winnipeg 31 — Toronto 14 with Winny’s Willy standing tall in the pocket… so to speak.

  59. Pouzar says:

    WHat ****ing boring night. Come on guys!!!!!!!!!

    “It’s going to be a tough decision,” said Tallon, who said he has received two “concrete” offers for the first pick. We’ve had some offers that are intriguing. One really intriguing one. We’ll have a sleepless [Friday] night as we as a staff are going to sit on it, ponder it. If we take the pick, we’re excited about that as well.”

    Eberle?

  60. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Lowetide,

    Because I answered the question “Who’s the contract going to prevent the Oilers from acquiring (considering the term of the entire contract)?” with “Yes”?

    That was my favorite part.

  61. rickithebear says:

    Using Corsi to predict Dman performance is Silly.
    You get to corsi:
    1. turning over procession
    2.forward back pressure and deciding on were to pressure by D.
    3. the measured success rate of entry
    4. the system run by coach on oz pressure and forward back pressure.
    5. the takeaway quality of your forwards.
    6. which side of the dpair they choose to attack.

    At which point somewhere on the ice a pucks directed at the net.

    At the point of release.
    D pressure and ability dictates
    1.distance from net.
    2.how pressured the release is.
    3. affects the type
    4. affects velocity
    5. affects elevation of release
    6. determines clear path
    7. blocks it
    8.forces a miss.

    At this point we come to the end game.
    Goal or no Goal (save)
    there are at least 18 factors or measurables relative to the final result.
    Corsi is one of them.

    There is only one stat that takes in all the factors.
    Goals!

    Can any of you say corsi tells you 10% of why a Goal occurred.
    If any of you say yes!
    There are meds for that!

    Nikitin 1.31 EVGA/60 when facing ends
    Marincin 2.08 EVGA/60 facing 1st with 4ths.
    Same level as Oduya.
    Fayne 1.61 EVGA/60 when facing 2nd comp

    While i am sure his corsi ratio and chance f ratio say
    he is terrible.
    GF; CF; are driven by forwards.
    Corsi is driven by a collection of decisions largely out of a Dmans. control.

    So while i will read a whole bunch of articles that state the failure of this signing unsupported by needed data.

    I will smile while I check the EVGA and Box protection.
    The end data and supporting field data saying our MGMT is targeting the best dmen at getting the best GA results. By keeping as many processions as possible to the perimeter.

    Corsi one of 18 variables and in the F…….. middle.

    Forgivr me for wanting Dmen

    Shots to outside as far away as possible and as unsuccessful as possible.

    Fuck Fistric top 20 EVGA/60 last 3 years would be nice for 3 years @ 1.25M

    Boston traded for potter.
    EVGA/60 top 20 last 2 years.

  62. Woodguy says:

    David,

    On the flip side I’ve never understood the hate for what your eyes see. Seeing what went down is essential for recording it.

    Take this test.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4&feature=kp

    I got 10 the first time.

  63. o1l3rsf@n says:

    Id say Nikita and Ferrence are better right now . Marincin just needs
    More experience from What I seen last year but definately has potential and deserves to be in the nhl .

  64. jake70 says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    1. Who’s the contract going to prevent the Oilers from acquiring (considering the term of the entire contract)?
    2. Whose development is his spot on the roster going to hold back?
    3. Who would the Oilers have acquired, but for their decision to sign Nikitin instead?
    4. Does he upgrade the defensive corps?

    From where I’m sitting, the answers are “yes”, “nobody”, “we can’t say for sure, but probably nobody”, and “yes”.So I guess I’m basically supportive of the signing, if not enthusiastic about it.

    (The difference between this and the Ference contract, which I loathe, is the term, and the expected trajectory of the player’s performance during that term.)

    Best characterization of the signing I’ve heard or read. Sums it up.

  65. fifthcartel says:

    “MacTavish still wants a puck-moving defenceman and a trade might be more feasible there, rather than free-agency, although he says there’s still a few available.”

    From – http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Edmonton+Oilers+sets+defencemen+free/9979096/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_oilers

    Nikitin isn’t the puck-moving defenceman? well, this could be interesting if that’s the case.

  66. fifthcartel says:

    And looks like Eakins will hire a third assistant.

    “Oilers head coach Dallas Eakins says he will be bringing in a third assistant, probably younger. “I have talked to somebody who’s in the American League and somebody in the Western (Junior) League,” said Eakins. His third assistant will be an eye-in-the-sky, in the press box on game nights “

  67. SpotTheLoon says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Great Post Steve!

    I think that you hit the nail right on the head. I think that whether you’re a math or seen him good proponent, what then needs to be considered is a pragmatic approach. Different metrics can provide us with a list of the top 10 free agent UFAs. A pro scouting staff can also do the same based on their observations. Both lists could be compiled based on organizational philosophy to address areas of weakness on the club. Perhaps there is significant overlap on these lists. In order to meld all this information, it comes down to finding a pragmatic solution and considering a host of other factors in the equation.

    The additional factors in the equation are things like:
    - would the player be prepared to come play in our market?
    - if so, would be have to pay a premium for their services?
    - how do we as an organization manage our available cap space in order to maximize our dollars to improve the club recognizing that decisions by players on where to play can be based on a host of emotional and seemingly arbitrary considerations.
    - at what point does any premium the club is prepared to pay negatively impact our ability to address other areas of concern related to the on ice product?
    -how do we as an organization attempt to maximize our return on investment in order to improve the club recognizing that these issues are not always quantifiable?

    There are a number of other points that could obviously go into this decision matrix. I think that math is great at identifying players who can potentially contribute to the team as does the seen them good crowd. Math is also a useful tool at evaluating existing players. But, ultimately, you still get into a situation based on perception, intuition and negotiation. I would suggest that is the job that MacT is faced with.

    The marketplace is complex with many different considerations that make up any sort of negotiation. It’s great to hear tweets about the Oilers wanting to become more of a possession team which, as LT points out, is part of the consideration that MacT is being influenced by.

    I come back to the four points that Steve raised. Is the team better than it was before the addition of Nikitin? I think so. Yes, it was an overpay but the term fits with the development timeline for our young d men. What would have happened if he wasn’t willing to sign and MacT struck out on signing UFA defensive help? I think at least we have some help and, as I mentioned, the team is better off with Nikitin than without him going into the draft and free agent frenzy.

    The bottom line for me is that both the math and seen it good points of view have a place in this discussion as they both ultimately contribute to the product that is on the ice because of these other complexities associated with assembling a club through trades and free agent signings.

    Ultimately, it may mean an incremental approach as opposed to a home run. But even as a long suffering Oilers fan, I can accept incremental improvement after the dead GM years of Tambi. Is it perfect? No. But at least I can see an articulated vision now with some signs of movement towards achieving it.

    As for the seen them good verses the math debate, maybe we all need to consider these other factors as well in terms of actually being able to realize an improved roster. I know even for myself, when I consider these points, I realize I need to be more tolerant.

  68. SpotTheLoon says:

    Lowetide,

    No, it doesn’t.

  69. flyfish1168 says:

    Not sure if this Interesting article on NCAA players having a better chance of playing 300 NHL games been posted here. Worth the read

    http://collegehockeyinc.com/articles/study-ncaa-leads-nhl-draft-success

  70. Zangetsu says:

    Couple thoughts tonight.

    First what if someone modded nhl14 to track advanced stats? It would be a good testing ground to see the effects of corsi, QoT, ect on performance. It would also be useful to test the theories like nhle. It would be a statistical playground, as each player is already assigned a rating, so it”s like doing the math with the answers. Someone out there must know how to do this. There are a million mods on Skyrim that seem more complex.

    Thought 2 deals with the debate between advanced stats and seenhimgood. I liken it to the religion vs science debate. Sure science isn’t perfect, but it is always getting closer to the truth. Advanced stats still have a lot of guesswork involved, as quantifying some things is very difficult. It’s hard to say if some approximations we make are legitimate or not. No matter which side of the debate your on, Simmons is an idiot. Burke figured as much.

    Lastly, I was wondering how much the oil actually us fancy stats. Their marketing team surely follows the blogs, as they offer great insight into fans mentality. Sometimes I wonder if the oil just give us a little bit of hope (Fayne) to keep us engaged with the product. That being said, Edmonton is really close to the heart of the stats movement (Toronto being the enemy here), and it would make sense that the oil would be one of the first teams to openly talk about possession stats. You can see the battle going on inside their heads, and I imagine it’s like that around the league. The question is which way does MacT really lean? I suspect its towards traditional means, but he seems to be listening to his stats group mrs than last year.

  71. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    nycoil: Rom, liked your post a lot. If I may be so bold as to offer one bit of feedback, you have so many embedded links in your post, which is great (recalling my teachers who used to say, “Cite your work”) but at the same time I think some could use a brief synopsis.

    I mean this stretch for example:
    “This was, mind you, the same draft year in which MacTavish cited analytics in trading down twice to acquire more kicks at the can. You find Lowetide and Scott Reynolds reviewing the 2013 draft here and here (right after the proceedings) and here’s a very recent piece by Bruce McCurdy covering the same ground.”

    Three linksin one paragraph, and I know they are draft reviews, but I need to go click on them to see what their views are. A little comment like, “These draft reviews argue that MacTavish and/or the Oilers employed analytics in producing a better draft list for 2013. ” Or whatever it is you are trying to argue at the time–I can read along and finish your article with a better understanding of your argument, then go and click on those links for your supporting evidence. But without that little summary I don’t have enough information without clicking and reading mid-article, then returning to yours.

    Still, enjoyed it of course. Thanks!

    Hey, thanks for reading and for the tip!

    Re-reading it, I see what you mean. It’s not very clear.

    Here’s what went wrong. I didn’t have a point, other than a tangential one: ie., having a draft philosophy that says we need to aim high and use analytics on the players is of a piece with having an approach to drafting that is open to trading down when it is advantageous to do so. The references I thought of as footnotes, pointers to further reading on related subjects and not as central to the point I was making, which again, was fairly trivial.

    I tried to make this a bit more clear. at any rate thanks.

  72. PunjabiOil says:

    Stauffer suggesting he doesn’t think Draisaitl will be available at 3rd OV

    Ekblad – Draisaitl – Reinhart – Bennett could possibly be the draft order?

    Would be thrilled if we ended up with Reinhart. Right handed center, extremely strong vision, ability to make WJC at 17.

  73. Vince says:

    I don’t really have a problem with the Nikitin deal. I think the reasoning was “if we can’t find a suitable trade at the draft and strike out on free agents we’re going to get bent over a railing looking for a trade the 2nd week of July.” MacT could not let that happen, it’s unfortunate that it came to that but Petry, Marincin, Shultz, Ference, Klefbom, Nurse and 7th/goon is just unacceptable as an NHL defense IMO. That plus Nikitin isn’t far off either
    If on the on July 10th we were looking at that defense for 2014-15 or watching a part of the core or the 3rd OV heading to a another city for what could end up being a stopgap addition on D we’d be over the moon to retroactively make the Nikitin deal

  74. Bar_Qu says:

    Lowetide,

    It does, but it takes 4 or 5 reads to figure out your way through the mangled grammar.

    One of the perks of being a teacher is I can decipher almost any gibberish to discern the writer’s intent. ;-)

    (hint, drop the middle section, between the hyphens)

  75. Lowetide says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Lowetide,

    It does, but it takes 4 or 5 reads to figure out your way through the mangled grammar.

    One of the perks of being a teacher is I can decipher almost any gibberish to discern the writer’s intent. ;-)

    I’m sure it helps you here! :-)

  76. Zangetsu says:

    Bar_Qu,

    It’s the comma in the hyphens that got me. Overpunctuated. Like when I first learned how to use a semicolin.

  77. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    not sure if it’s been posted or not, but you can watch MacT’s press gathering here:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=724039

    the Matheson article quotes are all from it.

    I’m not sure he’s accurately parsed Mact’s non-commital answers on seeking another “puck-moving D”

  78. Racki says:

    fifthcartel:
    And looks like Eakins will hire a third assistant.

    “Oilers head coach Dallas Eakins says he will be bringing in a third assistant, probably younger. “I have talked to somebody who’s in the American League and somebody in the Western (Junior) League,” said Eakins. His third assistant will be an eye-in-the-sky, in the press box on game nights ”

    AHL: Nelson,.. said no…
    WHL: Laxdal… considering it?

  79. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    Does the first paragraph of this article make sense

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Edmonton+Oilers+sets+defencemen+free/9979096/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_oilers

    I’m guessing you’re not talking about the sentence but the logic.

    He did say on the interview earlier with TSN that he felt the key to UFA Frenzying was to narrow one’s focus to your targets and commit to those targets rather than trying to talk to everyone and hoping something happens.

    If there’s no interest coming from the Fayne and Engelland, why waste your time and move on.

    But again, I think you’re wondering about the logic of focusing in on Engelland. And how he makes the same conversation as Fayne.

  80. book¡je says:

    David:
    Sorry LT for polluting your board with saw him good propaganda.

    I agree that saw him good can be a valuable contribution.

  81. eidy says:

    If ekblad and draissaitl are gone 1and 2 makes 3 very interesting. Vancouver hard after Reinhardt and I would see what they would trade to move up to 3. Could the oilers get Edler out of VCR? Rumors was shinkaruk, 6, and roster player. I would prefer Nicklaus Jensen to shinkaruk.

    Edler and 6 for 3+spare part
    Or
    6, Jensen, and 36 or tanev for chance to pick Sam R

    Interesting 24 h

    Hope they keep the pick and take the big German, but if Edler is on the table he solves a big problem.

  82. Rondo says:

    eidy,

    Buffalo is sitting in a good spot next year 2015.

    3 first rd picks

    2 second rd picks

  83. Snowman says:

    I think it would be helpful to think about when MacT really thinks the Oilers can go for it and contend. I think we can all agree that it won’t be next year or the year after. But I think in evaluating MacT’s moves we should start to reflect on them in the context of his percieved timeline of when this team should be cup ready. I think it adds an interesting wrinkle into thinking about this stuff in terms of future plans and not current needs.

    I like thinking about how todays transactions make the Oilers look in 2-4 years because I think (or more likely hope) MacT is probably thinking in those terms as well.

  84. spoiler says:

    eidy: Vancouver hard after Reinhardt and I would see what they would trade to move up to 3.

    But then wouldn’t the Drops be picking another winger? Would the Braintrust be willing to select behind Burke and the Flames?

  85. book¡je says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Lowetide,

    Because I answered the question “Who’s the contract going to prevent the Oilers from acquiring (considering the term of the entire contract)?” with “Yes”?

    I don’t see a problem with that, while he would be a stretch to bring to the NHL, Dmitri Yes is doing well in the Czech league as a defensive specialist and might be a decent NHL defensman. At 6’2″, 223lbs he also brings some size. He would probably sign for less than Belov did and may prove to be a strong #5 or #6 dman. Worst case scenario, he goes down to the minors like Grebeshov did last year.

  86. spoiler says:

    That draft countdown preview type show is coming up on TSN in a couple of minutes.

    Edit: Sorry I mean now

  87. spoiler says:

    Tallon:

    One of Edmonton and Vancouver has made a solid pitch to Tallon and it’s the one with the coast. 3 deals on the table, expects more tomorrow.

    MacT:

    He has had conversations with Tallon but not since they got to Philly, doesn’t see anything imminent, “but you never know”.

    Still haven’t completed their “final analysis” of who they would take at 3. (7:30 pm local time if it was close to live).

  88. "Steve Smith" says:

    book¡je,

    I googled him. Jackass.

  89. eidy says:

    spoiler,

    I agree, but MacT said today that they have 6 on their scenarios. I fear it is Ritchie at 6. I am all in favour of building down the middle (in face I hope they spend their late round pick on Colby Cave or Parker Bowles). I think Leon is the pick, but just wondering if they are gone. I think Vancouver is very keen on Reinhardt moreso than the oilers, and I think that value could be extracted

    sidenote: I mention Cave and Bowles as 2nd year eligibles that have significant skill as well. They are < 3 weeks different in age than Chase and were PPG this year. I also think of them as similar to getting "college bats" in MLB. You have them for an extra year of age before making a decision on them as well.

    Thoughts?

  90. vangolf says:

    spoiler:
    That draft countdown preview type show is coming up on TSN in a couple of minutes.

    Edit: Sorry I mean now

    MacT referred to Bennett as a “driver” in his rishaug interview for what it’s worth.

  91. nycoil says:

    My observations from the MacT press availability (all conjecture on my part)

    1) “Trying to find the Grabovski of this year” to me implies he doesn’t think Grabovski is likely to be an Oiler. Does MacT have interest? Probably does, but with other teams chasing him maybe the price is high.

    2) Mentions “big centre” 3 times with respect to the draft. There’s only one “big C” currently among the top 4. As someone else mentioned, I think all the “prepping” of the fan base by floating Draisaitl’s name as viable at 3 as opposed to the Sams and Ekblad have come back to possibly bite them in the butt if he really is their target.

    3) I’m sorry, but not knowing who they want to pick the night before the draft is scary. It should have been decided long ago.

    4) 6 scenarios, what are they? 4 we can identify: stay at 3 and draft one of Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart or Draisaitl. One is trade up to 1 overall, one is trade down and draft someone else. So all options are in play. Doesn’t sound like they are outright trading the pick though? That would be a 7th scenario.

    5) Lots of issues with MacT and Moneyball type thinking, but man is he a lot better than Tambo ever was! Pick your poison, I take Craig.

  92. nycoil says:

    eidy,

    Pretty sure he said there are 6 drafting scenarios, not that drafting 6th was a scenario (although it might be because as you said, Vancouver loves Reinhart).

  93. nycoil says:

    Dunno if this was posted already but worth a laugh
    Columbus kicked the tires on moving into the top 3

    @Aportzline · 38m

    Kekalainen: “I asked the top three teams what it would take. They say Ryan Johansen. I just said, ‘Okay. That’s not gonna happen. Click.’”

  94. justDOit says:

    nycoil,

    They would have better luck with Scarlet.

  95. Numenius says:

    nycoil: 3) I’m sorry, but not knowing who they want to pick the night before the draft is scary. It should have been decided long ago.

    McT only said they weren’t settled on their choice for all 6 scenarios. Doesn’t mean they weren’t settled on their choice for 5 of them.

  96. book¡je says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    book¡je,

    I googled him.Jackass.

    I feel like I just won the lottery! Direct hit! Steve Tambellini Grin Time!

    I honestly did look to see if there was a player named Yes out there, but the closest was something like Dimitri Yesov and his career was finished well over a decade ago.

  97. nycoil says:

    Numenius,

    I listened to it again. He does say that, but he also says at another point guys are similar and they aren’t set yet. I am in agreement with you that in every scenario except the trade down, the player they want should be set. I hope so at least. But that’s not what he said.

  98. nycoil says:

    http://audio.wgr550.com/a/93626107/625-elltiot-freidman-on-h.htm

    Elliotte Friedman on Buffalo radio with lots of good nuggets.

  99. Numenius says:

    nycoil: 4) 6 scenarios, what are they? 4 we can identify: stay at 3 and draft one of Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart or Draisaitl. One is trade up to 1 overall, one is trade down and draft someone else. So all options are in play. Doesn’t sound like they are outright trading the pick though? That would be a 7th scenario.

    The 6 scenarios are the six mathematical possibilities of what happens if they stay at 3.

    1. Gone: Reinhart, Ekblad
    Available: Draisaitl, Bennett

    2. Gone: Reinhart, Bennett
    Available: Draisaitl, Ekblad

    3. Gone: Reinhart, Draisaitl
    Available: Ekblad, Bennett

    4. Gone: Ekblad, Draisaitl
    Available: Reinhart, Bennett

    5. Gone: Ekblad, Bennett
    Available: Reinhart, Draisaitl

    6. Gone: Bennett, Draisaitl
    Available: Ekblad, Reinhart

  100. Numenius says:

    nycoil:
    Numenius,

    I listened to it again. He does say that, but he also says at another point guys are similar and they aren’t set yet. I am in agreement with you that in every scenario except the trade down, the player they want should be set. I hope so at least. But that’s not what he said.

    My guess is that they’ll take Draisaitl if he’s available and then Ekblad if Draisaitl’s not available. If neither are available, that’s where they may be uncertain.

  101. RexLibris says:

    nycoil:
    Tallon on sportsnet: “70% keeping the pick.” But one team’s offer goes “over and above” fair value for the pick so going to stay up thinking about it tonight.

    All smoke pointing to Vancouver. They are known to covet Reinhart, whom they interviewed 3 times. If Reinhart goes #1 and Buffalo takes Draisaitl, Oilers could be choosing between Ekblad and Bennett.

    Feels like the night before Christmas!

    If Vancouver gets the #1, it’ll likely be Reinhart. But that is likely to mean that Buffalo takes Bennett, in my opinion. We’ve discussed Tim Murray as an OHL scout, Bennett is an OHL guy, considered by many to be the best of the draft class and the Sabres, for once, don’t need to worry about size down the middle.

    This means the Oilers could very well end up choosing between Draisaitl and Ekblad at #3.

  102. spoiler says:

    Flames…………………..Oilers
    Reinhart/Bennett ……….RNH
    Monahan………………..Draisaitl

    I’m comfortable that we would be winning the 2nd line battle, but I’m not too sure on the 1st line. Then again, Hall’s there, so the difference between Reinhart and RNH is probably not big enough to matter. Because Hall.

  103. RexLibris says:

    What would be really funny, is if Reinhart fell to #3 and Benning came over to talk to MacTavish.

    Now, I realize that there is a whole new cast of characters involved here, but it’d be awfully tempting for MacTavish to say to the Canucks “remember our discussions last year about Cory Schneider?”

    I want Draisaitl for the Oilers, but if Reinhart is a clone of Nugent-Hopkins, and I don’t believe he is as I think he has the potential for a shade more offense, then I’d have no concerns over drafting him.

    Or Bennett,

    Just don’t trade down, out, or pick Ekblad.

  104. RexLibris says:

    spoiler:
    Flames…………………..Oilers
    Reinhart/Bennett ……….RNH
    Monahan………………..Draisaitl

    I’m comfortable that we would be winning the 2nd line battle, but I’m not too sure on the 1st line. Then again, Hall’s there, so the difference between Reinhart and RNH is probably not big enough to matter. Because Hall.

    Yeah, but you forgot to factor in Johnny Gaudreau who will outperform Hall within two years’ time.

    :)

  105. RexLibris says:

    @tsnscottcullen: RT @daldridgetnt: Toronto is working to acquire the rights for guard Tyler Ennis from Phoenix, per source.

    Wait, I thought Ennis played for Buffalo. And when did he start playing guard, the kid is maybe 5’7″ in heels. What the….oooohhhhh. Darned NBA polluting my newsfeed.

  106. Ribs says:

    Using Corsi to predict Dman performance is Silly.
    You get to corsi:
    1. turning over procession

    lolololol. rickibear is the best.

  107. Ribs says:

    RexLibris,

    *probably one of few who got the reference here* Strange coincidence.

  108. Ribs says:

    “We had a great need at that position to upgrade it and we landed a defenceman who’ll fit into our top four. The term was attractive to him and to us, and it does allow us time to develop our young defencemen appropriately, whether that’s sending them back to junior if not ready (Darnell Nurse) or putting them in the American League (Oscar Klefbom).”

    I think that may be the most productive thing I’ve heard from the Oilers management mouths in years!

  109. Ribs says:

    “What we’re trying to do is this: who are the Mikhail Grabovskis of this year?” MacTavish said.

    I’ve never felt that anyone in Oilers management was fond of Grabovski. This is about as close as I get to being happy about where their thoughts are (and I kind of agree with them). Grabbo is great on paper but the intangibles are against him (right now). Who’s the next Grabbo? Get him quick, before the bull shows up.

  110. nycoil says:

    Numenius,

    OK, that makes sense. Thanks, I failed to think it through there. But if that is the case, should they not have the answer to each of those 6 decided by now?

  111. spoiler says:

    Ribs: I’ve never felt that anyone in Oilers management was fond of Grabovski. This is about as close as I get to being happy about where their thoughts are (and I kind of agree with them). Grabbo is great on paper but the intangibles are against him (right now). Who’s the next Grabbo? Get him quick, before the bull shows up.

    I’d bet good money they’ve talked to Grabo’s camp this week. He will want term this contract though and I’m wondering what term the Oil are willing to offer if they’re taking a 2C with their pick. Ie, what’s their time frame?

    And let’s say right now they KNOW they have Grabo on July 1 and have to give him term. Do they then trade down to get another player, and take Ritchie?

  112. spoiler says:

    RexLibris: Yeah, but you forgot to factor in Johnny Gaudreau who will outperform Hall within two years’ time.

    lol… That shouldn’t be a problem for Gaudreau. Hall isn’t even an Olympian. Can’t make the all-star team either.

  113. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Regarding NN. The term makes the cap hit a minor point.

    Next year the cap is rising significantly. There will be many teams throwing piles of money at UFA and lots of teams that can absorb overpriced contracts, further fuelling the UFA bidding wars. This year is the year for the oilers to acquire from free agency.

    By making it 2 years, it gives time for further prospect development without tying the cap up. It is also ideal for acquiring a better asset for the deadline in 2015/16 by which point the hope is MM, OK and DN have all arrived, with possibly another prospect pushing.

    The best deadline deals are on expiring contracts and the term makes this ideal. This makes the overpay moot as an extra year on the deal would reduce the trade value of NN at a time when saving cap space is largely irrelevant for the team.

    In addition to guaranteeing they weren’t shut out of UFA for a #4 D, they increased the value of the signing by getting someone young enough to carry value at the expiration of the deal. Good planning.

    Suspect Fayne may be similar term or one more year for same purpose.

    Spin UFA into future assets while extending ripening time for prospects. I don’t even care if NN makes this team better next year, it is a smart approach to UFA season.

  114. Deadman Waiting says:

    Woodguy
    I got 10 the first time.

    I got 13 +/- 1 but I didn’t see the bear. I caught a few only on inference. I didn’t exactly see the pass, but I had a feeling that both balls had managed to change possession at the same time, so I bumped.

    I get how it works, though. This is designed to spam the retina’s edge detection and motion tracking ability. We’re used to how looking straight into a light makes it hard to see nearby things. A snowstorm of moving edges is nearly as bad. That bear is about as visible as a moose against asphalt at twilight when hiding within that shimmer of fast-moving edges.

  115. Numenius says:

    nycoil:
    Numenius,

    OK, that makes sense. Thanks, I failed to think it through there. But if that is the case, should they not have the answer to each of those 6 decided by now?

    Ideally, yes, you’re right. But I don’t think it’s too serious and it doesn’t mean that they don’t have strong leanings. My sense from last year is that things were similar and they weren’t completely decided between Nurse and Nichushkin until draft morning (and McT went with his gut).

  116. Deadman Waiting says:

    David:
    I just get rubbed the wrong way by people hating on saw him good.

    Whether Darwin was right or wrong about the larger implications of his theory, actually getting effed to go out and discover the DNA molecule was a no-brainer.

    Imagine that every person on hearing Darwin’s theory retired to the local coffee shop to discuss free will and ultimate origins endlessly into the long night and no one got effed to get out there and discover the DNA molecule. If this was our universal salience threshold, we’d still be stuck in the stone age (or its more comfortable descendant, modern France).

    You need to worry less about the tone of voice of the background chatter. A blown radiator or two is a mishap, not a smoke signal to Cayenne Nation.

    The goal here is to explore this brave new world where humans and computers complement rather than quarrel.

    ———

    Brave New World Discovery Kit

    Contents

    Red pill: New convictions comfortably build upon old convictions.
    Blue pill: Everything you previously believed is open to doubt.

    The red pills are still arguing about whether the forbidden fruit was an
    apple, pomegranate, fig, carob, citron, pear, mushroom, quince, or datura.

    The blue pills bent over dank benches and sequenced the human genome.

  117. Woodguy says:

    Deadman Waiting: I got 13 +/- 1 but I didn’t see the bear. I caught a few only on inference.I didn’t exactly see the pass, but I had a feeling that both balls had managed to change possession at the same time, so I bumped.

    I get how it works, though.This is designed to spam the retina’s edge detection and motion tracking ability.We’re used to how looking straight into a light makes it hard to see nearby things.A snowstorm of moving edges is nearly as bad.That bear is about as visible as a moose against asphalt at twilight when hiding within that shimmer of fast-moving edges.

    We miss so much when we look for other things.

    Our ability to over estimate how much we actually remember is a bottomless well.

    I’ve ready study after study that pretty much concludes our memories are mostly false because the brain makes up a ton of details that we actually don’t “remember”

    I don’t trust memory at all.

    I still understand seen him good, and I saw Marincin good before the numbers confirmed it.

    I just don’t trust it.

  118. Numenius says:

    Deadman Waiting: Whether Darwin was right or wrong about the larger implications of his theory, actually getting effed to go out and discover the DNA molecule was a no-brainer.

    Huh? Darwin discovered DNA?

    Deadman Waiting: Red pill: New convictions comfortably build upon old convictions.
    Blue pill: Everything you previously believed is open to doubt.

    The red pills are still arguing about whether the forbidden fruit was an
    apple, pomegranate, fig, carob, citron, pear, mushroom, quince, or datura.

    The blue pills bent over dank benches and sequenced the human genome.

    Is it open to doubt that everything I previously believed is open to doubt? Or must I accept this old (17th century) Cartesian conviction for science to progress?

  119. russ99 says:

    The moneyball debacle in baseball taught us one thing.

    Neither math nor “saw him good” should be the only factor, using only one is only getting part of the picture. As advanced stats take hold in NHL front offices, I think that they are adapting due to baseball’s mistakes.

    Interestingly, the Astros are taking numbers to a whole new level and adapting time-tested methodologies, especially in the minors, due to what those numbers are showing them. This week’s Sports Illustrated cover story is about that… Going to be really interesting to see how that pans out.

  120. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: We miss so much when we look for other things.

    Our ability to over estimate how much we actually remember is a bottomless well.

    I’ve ready study after study that pretty much concludes our memories are mostly false because the brain makes up a ton of details that we actually don’t “remember”

    I don’t trust memory at all.

    I still understand seen him good, and I saw Marincin good before the numbers confirmed it.

    I just don’t trust it.

    Just last week you said exactly the opposite. As I recall, you had a monkey with you and you were juggling microwaves.

  121. Woodguy says:

    russ99: The moneyball debacle in baseball taught us one thing.

    Moneyball debacle?

    What debacle?

    A’s have had the best $/win ratio in MLB for years and years.

    They are destroying the whole league in run differential this year: with the 27/30 roster in terms of cost.

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/team-run-differential/2014/

    I’d give me eyeteeth for the OIlers to have that “debacle”

  122. Woodguy says:

    book¡je: it.

    Guilty.

    I think….

  123. russ99 says:

    Woodguy,

    The A’s moved on from their primary motive in Moneyball: to use numbers to find value where no one else sees it, since everyone else copycatted what they did after their initial success in 2001-02, they had to find other methods.

    IMO, the recent $/win success was more to Beane being unconventional to work under his extremely low payroll, not moneyball specifically.

    I really think that Jeff Luhnow, Sig Mejdal and Kevin Goldstein in the Astros organization are more the spiritual successors to Moneyball in the present day than Beane and the A’s.

    They’re stirring up the dirt and making some baseball lifers unsettled with some of their new methods.

  124. Woodguy says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy,

    The A’s moved on from their primary motive in Moneyball: to use numbers to find value where no one else sees it, since everyone else copycatted what they did after their initial success in 2001-02, they had to find other methods.

    IMO, the recent $/win success was more to Beane being unconventional to work under his extremely low payroll, not moneyball specifically.

    I really think that Jeff Luhnow, Sig Mejdal and Kevin Goldstein in the Astros organization are more the spiritual successors to Moneyball in the present day than Beane and the A’s.

    They’re stirring up the dirt and making some baseball lifers unsettled with some of their new methods.

    Moneyball was always about finding undervalued players.

    Always.

    Always about producing the most amount of wins for the least amount of cash.

    That’s it.

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