SIXES AND SEVENS AND NINES

One of the things we should probably spend more time on—and in case you haven’t noticed there’s a long rain delay going on in this ballgame—is when picks occur, and what happened around them. Take as an example the 2010 entry draft’s second round. It’s interesting because the sheer number of picks gave Edmonton an enormous chance to add multiple players to their young cluster, to the rebuild. After four seasons, here’s how things are going:

  • No. 31: R Tyler Pitlick, Edmonton. 39GP, 8-14-22 AHL plus 10 NHL games. Injuries! Has a chance to make it.
  • No. 32: R Jared Knight, Boston. 58GP, 5-14-19 AHL, has not appeared in the NHL. Injuries have had an impact.
  • No. 33: L John McFarland, Florida. 45GP, 10-14-24 AHL, has not appeared in an NHL game.
  • No. 34: L Dalton Smith, Columbus. 69GP, 6-6-12 AHL, no NHL. Was traded this season.
  • No. 35: L Ludvig Rensfeldt, Chicago. 47GP, 7-7-14 Swe-1, no NHL. Massive season in 12-13, down arrow this year.
  • No. 36:  D Alex Petrovic, Florida. 43GP, 2-11-13 AHL plus 7 games (13 total now) in the NHL. About where Pitlick is imo.
  • No. 37: D Justin Faulk, Carolina. 76GP, 5-27-32 NHL, at 180 NHL games and counting. A home run selection.
  • No. 38: D Jon Merrill, New Jersey. 52GP, 2-9-11 NHL, at 52 NHL games and counting. Rookie seems to be on his way.
  • No. 39: R Brett Bulmer, Minnesota. 43GP, 11-8-19 AHL, plus 5 games (14 total now) in the NHL. About where Pitlick is imo.
  • No. 40: R Christian Thomas, New York. 55GP, 11-16-27 AHL, plus 2 games (3 total now) in the NHL. About where Pitlick is imo.

I think that’s fair. In the first 10 picks of the second round, we have a clear hit (Faulk), an emerging player (Merrill) and then four guys who are fringe NHL players with a chance to have a career: Pitlick, Petrovic, Bulmer, Thomas. I don’t think it’s fair to discount Knight and the rest, there’s one season to go before the five year rule kicks in, and injuries have impacted them to this point.

  • No. 41: D Patrik Nemeth, Dallas. 37GP, 3-7-10 plus 8 NHL games. Played his first NHL games this season.
  • No. 42: L Devante Smith-Pelly, Anaheim. 55GP, 27-16-43 AHL, plus 19 (now 75) games in the NHL. He’s going to have an NHL career.
  • No. 43: L Brad Ross, Toronto. 53GP, 6-4-10 AHL, has not appeared in an NHL game.
  • No. 44: R Sebastian Wannstrom, St. Louis. 37GP, 5-5-10, has not appeared in an NHL game.
  • No. 45: R Ryan Spooner, Boston. 49GP, 11-35-46, 23 (now 27) games in the NHL. Has a solid shot at an NHL career.
  • No. 46: D Martin Marincin, Edmonton. 24GP, 3-4-7 and 44 NHL games this year. Rookie seems to be on his way.
  • No. 47: R Tyler Toffoli, Los Angeles. 62GP, 12-17-29, at 72 NHL games and counting. This is an NHL player.
  • No. 48: L Curtis Hamilton, Edmonton. 43GP, 8-8-16, has not appeared in an NHL game.
  • No. 49 G Calvin Pickard, Colorado. 43GP, 2.85 .906 in the AHL, has not appeared in an NHL game.
  • No. 50 L Connor Brickley, Florida. 35GP, 5-10-15 in the NCAA, he played 8 AHL games. Pro career just underway.

The second set of ten offers three emerging players: Smith-Pelly, Marincin and Toffoli. Edmonton gets in on the fun with their second pick in the round, but their third pick of the round is one of the ‘off the pace’ selections in the group (Curtis Hamilton). Among the first 20 selections in this round, which is now four years old, 11 have played at least one NHL game.

  • No. 51 C Calle Jarnkrok, Detroit. 57GP, 13-23-36, and 12 NHL games. Has a solid shot at a career, in Nashville now.
  • No. 52 R Phil Lane, Phoenix. 39GP, 3-3-6, has not appeared in an NHL game.
  • No. 53 D Mark Alt, Carolina. 75GP, 4-22-26, has not appeared in an NHL game. Shows some promise.
  • No. 54 D Justin Holl, Chicago. 39GP, 1-12-13 in NCAA, has not appeared in an NHL game.
  • No. 55 R Petr Straka, Columbus. 60GP, 9-18-27 AHL, has not appeared in an NHL game.
  • No. 56 R Johan Larsson, Minnesota. 51GP, 15-26-41 AHL and 29 NHL games. Rookie seems to be on his way, now in Buffalo.
  • No. 57 C Oscar Lindberg, Phoenix. 75GP, 18-26-44 AHL, has not appeared in an NHL game.
  • No. 58 G Kent Simpson, Chicago. 31GP, 3.64 .891 and 1 NHL game. Had a wobbly season.
  • No. 59 L Jason Zucker, Minnesota. 22GP 8-5-13 AHL and 47 NHL games. Seems to be on his way.
  • No. 60 D Stephen Johns, Chicago. 40GP, 8-12-20 NCAA and 8 AHL games. Pro career just underway.

The third set offers another emerging player (Zucker) and three more who have at least played in the NHL during the four years after they were draft. It’s interesting to see that a few of these young men have just begun their pro careers.

2010 NHL DRAFT, SECOND ROUND, BY NHL GAME PLAYED

  1. Justin Faulk 180
  2. Devante Smith-Pelly 75
  3. Tyler Toffoli 72
  4. Jon Merrill 52
  5. Jason Zucker 47
  6. Martin Marincin 44
  7. Johan Larsson 29
  8. Ryan Spooner 27
  9. Brett Bulmer 14
  10. Alex Petrovic 13
  11. Calle Jarnkrok 12
  12. Tyler Pitlick 10
  13. Patrick Nemeth 8
  14. Christian Thomas 3
  15. Kent Simpson 1

Half of this round has played at least one game, six have played more than half of a regular season, and Justin Faulk has played over 2 full seasons in the NHL. Interesting players here, and some of the assets have been moved to help their teams push into the playoffs.

The fifteen players who have not played in the NHL fall into three categories:

  • Players who are still progressing but have not arrived yet (Calvin Pickard, Mark Alt, Oscar Lindberg).
  • Players who are not progressing (Jared Knight, John McFarland, Dalton Smith, Ludvig Rensfeldt, Brad Ross, Sebastian Wannstrom, Curtis Hamilton, Phil Lane, Petr Straka)
  • Players who are just starting their pro careers (Connor Brickley, Justin Holl, Stephen Johns)

THE BOB MCKENZIE LIST AFTER ROUND ONE (WHAT WAS LEFT)

In order to find fault with the Oilers draft (imo) you’d need to see the team draft a Jesse Niinimaki—someone so far out of range it would be ridiculous. There was still a lot of draft value on the board in round two. I like to use Bob McKenzie’s rankings for these back pages glances, they are consensus and from the industry. Here are the leftovers after round one:

  • No. 22 Jon Merrill went to NJD at 38. Great value pick, and it paid off.
  • No. 25 Tyler Pitlick went to EDM at 31. Value, it has not paid off to this point.
  • No. 27 Tyler Toffoli went to LAK at 47. Fabulous value pick, it has paid off.
  • No. 28 John McFarland went to FLA at 33. Value pick, it has not paid off to this point.
  • No. 30 Justin Faulk went to CAR at 37. Value pick, paid off in a home run.

There are a couple of points to be made here. First, the Oilers were risk averse in the first pick of round two, but it didn’t pay off. I’d rather see a team fail that way than the Niinimaki route. We don’t often blame development after draft, because it’s a tough thing to prove, but the early grad to pro, the injuries and the sparse playing time early in the AHL retarded progress. I would say, looking back, that Pitlick’s offense (NHLE: 82gp, 11-6-17) should have been (and was) a concern. Here’s what I wrote the November after his draft:

  • Desjardins NHLE’s in the range among Oiler prospects who played in the CHL as 18-year olds: Toni Rajala (11-15-26), Phil Cornet (11-17-28) and Jordan Eberle (14-16-30). Pitlick still has time and he is definitely improving (in his last 7 games, Pitlick is 7-4-11, +5) but I’m not certain that his offense last season was mostly due to lack of playing time.

I still think there’s a player there, and what’s more important coach Dallas Eakins was impressed enough to notice him in training camp.

  • Eakins: “I keep trying to send him down and he keeps playing like that. Every time I turned around he was running into somebody. I grabbed him after the second period and asked him if he wanted to play in the NHL because if he keeps playing like that, it won’t be too long until he is. He needs to keep the fire lit and he bought himself another game tomorrow.”

The 2008 draft gave Edmonton Jordan Eberle, and the lack of a second or third round selection meant only one name was added to the cluster. 2009 has contributed, with an asset leaving as part of an exchange for a legit top 6F, and Anton Lander may also help. Neither draft year will be one we’re talking about 15 years from now because it moved the needle in multiple areas.

We’re a year away from the five year mark on the 2010 draft, and with due respect to Curtis Hamilton, Tyler Bunz, Brandon Davidson and the others, I think we have the NHLers surrounded. The 2010 draft has given Edmonton a franchise player in Taylor Hall, an emerging young defenseman in Martin Marincin and Tyler Pitlick. I don’t think it’s vital that the young man emerge as an NHL role player to save this draft—Hall and Marincin can do that all by their lonesome—it’s also important that the organization draft and development value contracts to go with the impact players.

The Oilers may have grabbed a King and a Jack in 2010, now they need a 9. That’s Tyler Pitlick.

 

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55 Responses to "SIXES AND SEVENS AND NINES"

  1. Lowetide says:

    Lowdown at 10, TSN.

    10:05 Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon
    10:25 TBA
    11:00 Ryan Pike, Hockey Writers and Flames Nation (draft)
    11:25 Robert P, Jewels from the Crown

    Fun!

  2. jfry says:

    Marincin has been elevated to jack status?

  3. Lowetide says:

    jfry:
    Marincin has been elevated to jack status?

    Well, MAY be elevated to jack status. I’m not sure what we’ll end up calling him. But if he can play a top 4 role with calm feet? I think we’ll call him that, yes.

  4. mumbai max says:

    This is great stuff. People always refer to the ‘Justin Faulks’ of the draft world to show how pitiful the Oil are. Your work seems to show they are average. Hey, average looks pretty good from the basement!

    p.s. Marincin may even be a Queen…hmm….forget it, he is a Jack.

  5. Dicky94 says:

    Pitlick needs a full season playing on the fourth line with Gordon and Hendricks to get his confidence back. Get him on the pk and possibly second unit pp. He has a geat shot and the offence will come in time.

  6. Racki says:

    I’m a believer in Pitlick. I was really impressed with him until he got hurt. Terrible timing there.. Very typical for us Oilers fans. Just when a guy starts going he gets hurt.

    Anyways, he isn’t likely to be anywhere where he was drafted to be but that’s OK. He’s reinvented himself. I think he’s done it well. He’ll get some greasy goals down the road. Hopefully enough puck sacrifices to satisfy the cult here.

    I see him now as a good energy guy who can pot goals here and there.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Dicky94:
    Pitlick needs a full season playing on the fourth line with Gordon and Hendricks to get his confidence back.Get him on the pk and possibly second unit pp. He has a geat shot and the offence will come in time.

    Confidence may be a factor… but with this kid, it’s always been lack of offence and a terrible, terrible, run of injuries.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This was all over twitter the other day. For those of you not tweeting… it’s a good read:

    http://nypost.com/2014/06/02/the-incredible-saga-of-how-rangers-lucked-upon-lundqvist/

    One of the things we need to come to terms with — in the same way we try to with on-ice play — is the sheer amount of luck involved in everything.

    we don’t draft these kids at 20 or 22. A lot of what we crown genius and stupidity is really just damn, fool luck.

  9. Dicky94 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Ya I don’t think he’ll be a first or second line player. If he can chip in ten or fifteen goals a year in the bottom six it will be an upgrade on Jones.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Dicky94:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Ya I don’t think he’ll be a first or second line player. If he can chip in ten or fifteen goals a year in the bottom six it will be an upgrade on Jones.

    I think he may have been an upgrade on Jones this year. And, cheaper.

    Damn kid can’t stay healthy.

  11. Hammers says:

    Racki: I’m a believer in Pitlick. I was really impressed with him until he got hurt. Terrible timing there.. Very typical for us Oilers fans. Just when a guy starts going he gets hurt. Anyways, he isn’t likely to be anywhere where he was drafted to be but that’s OK. He’s reinvented himself. I think he’s done it well. He’ll get some greasy goals down the road. Hopefully enough puck sacrifices to satisfy the cult here.I see him now as a good energy guy who can pot goals here and there.

    I’m with you as I think Pitlick needs the chance with a run of 10 games to find out his true value . For me this is the year to find out about a few of these types as it may well be our last year out of the playoffs . So much depends on who McT adds on the blue line .

  12. Dicky94 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    For sure he was! Needs to drink more milk.

  13. Dicky94 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    For sure he was! Needs to drink more milk.
    Romulus Apotheosis,

  14. russ99 says:

    Dicky94,

    No, he needs a full healthy season in the AHL to show he can push the river, then he can work his way into a bottom six role.

    If they decide to take a shot on him after training camp, that shouldn’t be in lieu of signing another experienced two-way NHL player on the bottom six that we sorely need.

    Playoff teams don’t fill in the bottom six with fighters and players like Lander, Arcobello and Pitlick. We need more like Gordon and Hendricks, but better.

  15. nycoil says:

    Watching Justin Williams perform again last night, I can’t help lamenting what might have been on the Patrick O’Sullivan trade. We probably would have wasted his prime years but he would have been a nice piece.

    LT, what if we ran through a list of all the nines and tens we traded for sixes and fives and wild cards that turned out to be jokers since 2006? Cogliano for Roy, Brodziak (and Kuemper) for picks, Stoll and Greene for Visnovsky for Whitney and a 6th for zero…etc. Smid and Roy for Brossoit. TLupul for? Too depressing?

    I really think that’s where the Oilers have failed. Some of it is drafting but the trading and downgrading of quality or potential quality for lesser quality and then again for still less is really what has killed the franchise.

    Heck, even if we include the Cup run team and the home rum first Pronger trade how many trades have we won like Perron vs lost? Too depressing to run through, I suppose.

  16. Dicky94 says:

    russ99,

    That’s why I’m hoping the third line gets a complete overhaul. Kullemin, Bolland and Downie would be a nice third line. Probably wont happen though.

  17. Caramel Obvious says:

    I completely agree with Russ. Pitlick is useless. He can’t score and he has no experience. He brings nothing to the table.

    I’d much rather spend 1.5 million on another Hendriks than waste a roster spot on Pitlick.

    When can start talking about him when he starts scoring, at all, in the AHL. Until then he’s just taking up space.

  18. Jordan says:

    Dear Dennis King & LT,

    I’m sure you already know this from the questions I’ve sent you, but I love your radio segment.

    Thank you both for making the darkness of this Oilers rebuild less soul-crushing through humour, sarcasm & honest, semi-apologetic opinions.

    If I knew you better, I’d consider giving you both a completely platonic hug.

    I hope you continue to bring us laughter, hope and accurate analogies of Ales Hemsky.

  19. nycoil says:

    Dicky94,

    Bolland seems to want $5M, according to the banter out of Toronto. Too expensive for third line duties.
    Downie–quality player who teams can’t seem to get rid of quickly enough. The Varlamov incident aftermath saw him shipped off for a lesser player, and I don’t want to get into that as I wasn’t there, but he’s had run-ins with teammates several times before. I think in this case his baggage exceeds his value to the team and don’t want him coming anywhere near the Oilers. Kulemin, sign me up.

  20. Dicky94 says:

    nycoil,

    Ya Bolland will end up in Florida under Tallon again. That makes Goc and Bjugstad trade targets for the oil.

  21. rickithebear says:

    Listened to Ross (ISS) Yesterday. he said Draisatle showed the best Performance ceiling.
    but Lacked Consistency. But in his talks on 960 he had stated that Draisatl was Lemiex like in some of his plays. But the inconsistency of play brought his ranking down.

    Bruno Campese was on 960. He was asked how he would rank the players he has been involved withg organization wise.
    Getzlaf and Draistl together.
    Morrisey
    Ladd

    he noted that Draistl was the best at passing with both sides of Blade.
    He is able to hide his shot. Can score alot in NHL. Best passer he has seen.

    Responded to the comments of inconsitent.
    Said allways thought Getzlaf should have been top 5 in his draft.
    He saw and thought the game at such a higher level than other players he was often waiting for the other players to catch up to reading the Play.
    Knew once he got to play with an elite level player in the NHL who could read the game at same level
    his scoring would go to a new level. Would often drop down his play to make his teamates better.

    Campese said’ Draisatl has the same problem. He thinks the game way above everyone else. That when he gets to play with Elite thinkers in NHL his production will elevate. He stated that he is such a strong body and has the wide leg stride , protects the puck. will not lose pocession.

    Then the 960 guys were thinking that most drafted players gain 15-20lb
    with Draisatl at 6’2″ 207lb 222-227lb by 22.

    So he is inconsitent cause he has to lower his game for teamates to be in play and perform better.
    So the guy who helped coach Getzlaf thinks Draisatl who projects to be a 70 pt player will experience a production jump when playing with players who can think like him.

    Campese also said Leon put more of an emphasis on 2 way play than Offensive Production.

    960 guys asked about World Juniors. Coach Said Draisaitl tried to hard and got suspended for 2 games. Came back and played at a more mature productive level. 48PT in 21GM.

    Campese is describing a 27G 80p to 30G 90P
    player.

  22. Pouzar says:

    LD is what we need in spades. A big strong playmaker who is strong on the puck especially below the circles. Yes please.

  23. rickithebear says:

    Dang it Pozar young showed the transcript.!
    It displays the sheer what the hell are you guys thinking when it commes to scouts Questioning Getzlaf and Draisatl. I could not remeber while driving the dam.

  24. rickithebear says:

    The thought of
    Hall-Draisat6’2″ 225lbl-XXX
    Perron-RNH 6’1″ 195-200lb-Eberle
    XXX- Yakimov 6’5″ 230lb-Yakipov
    XXX- Khaira 6’4″ 225lb-XXX
    Down the middle!

    Makes me Happy!

  25. Pouzar says:

    rickithebear: The thought ofHall-Draisat6’2″ 225lbl-XXXPerron-RNH 6’1″ 195-200lb-EberleXXX- Yakimov 6’5″ 230lb-YakipovXXX- Khaira 6’4″ 225lb-XXXDown the middle!Makes me Happy!

    Oh boy!

  26. Pouzar says:

    Please let us hit on Khaira or Bogdan ( yes both would be insane but I will take one right now).
    Sounds like from Khaira’s AHL stint he has the defensive chops to hold his own. Neal Livingston was very high on him.

  27. OrangeandBlue says:

    I’m really rooting for Pitlick this year and hopefully gives us a value contract on the bottom six. I just hope he isn’t a 3 dressed up like a 9 and wastes our time.

  28. gd says:

    Pouzar,

    Big guys have been taking this type of criticism since the days of Frank M, through Lindros and Thornton. Yes I know we love the little guys like Gallagher and Goudreau, but with Leon it looks like a big guy who can control the game and is a world class passer with size we do not have. As long as it is close with him and the others, he is by far the best fit for the team’s organizational holes.

    My only concern with him is how much was he helped by having Morrissey on his team. He is starring in the AHL playoffs and looks like one of the best value picks from last year’s 1st rd.

  29. Melman says:

    nycoil,

    This all day long. It doesn’t really matter if Stu is only average or slightly better, when the guys above are consistently downgrading NHL talent.

    MacT’s deal for Perron and fixing of the G gave me a glimmer of hope (notwithstanding the Smid trade – maybe he figured Laddy’s contract was about to be stinker and the season was already lost?). That the pro scouting and assistant coaches haven’t changed though is sadly dimming that hope.

  30. sliderule says:

    The bottom line in oilers drafting after first round we have only Marincin to show for all the later picks in the Stu era.
    If you have read Staple’s piece in the Cult of Hockey you would know that the oilers are near the bottom in games played and number of players who have had success.
    There are a bunch of teams with 4 and 5 players who have made it .
    The Rangers have two and Kings have three in this Stanley final.
    The oilers draft record is not bad luck.
    The oilers draft record is bad management.

  31. Caramel Obvious says:

    I’ll put it down on paper. My ranking of the top four is:

    1. Draisatl
    1a. Bennett

    I’d be happy with either of them. Age and OHL equivalancies say Bennett, verbal says Draisatl

    Then it’s Reinhart and Ekblad, I guess. I’d try and trade down in the unlikely event Draisatl and Bennett went 1 and 2, and take a flyer on Nylander, or Ehlers, or the other European. Or, I’d see if I could swing a blockbuster to get what I really want (i.e. Sean Couturier)

  32. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    The bottom line in oilers drafting after first round we have only Marincin to show for all the later picks in the Stu era.
    If you have read Staple’s piece in the Cult of Hockey you would know that the oilers are near the bottom in games played and number of players who havehad success.
    There are a bunch of teams with 4 and 5 players who have made it .
    The Rangers have two and Kings have three in this Stanley final.
    The oilers draft record is not bad luck.
    The oilers draft record is bad management.

    David’s article was certainly interesting. I’ve long felt five years is the better way, but certainly understand other points of view. A year ago when we were all having this conversation, Martin Marincin was part of the problem.

    This year? Not so much.

    A study of 2008-12 re: Oilers means one season without a second or a third (2008) and another where they clearly went off the radar in rounds 3+. I believe, starting with 2010 and moving forward, we’ll see a better result. We’ll see. That’s the great thing about a draft, it reveals itself slowly and over time.

    As for other teams having their players land earlier, I’m certainly aware of them and that’s a consideration. I think picks like Jenner and Saad really point to a failure, but would prefer to see five years of the draft before making a choice.

    And I think that Oscar Klefbom, David Musil, Dillon Simpson, Tobias Rieder, Martin Gernat and others deserve an opportunity to show what they can do as well.

    It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Blaming these kids for the current team’s fortunes strikes me as being wrong. jmo.

  33. Gordoil says:

    Is it bad “Drafting” or maybe bad “Developing”! Whose to say Taffoli would have developed in the Oilers program the way he did in the Kings. Or Pitlick may have developed better under the kings program. The Oilers farm system has just started producing better in my opinion, it may have taken a couple of years to kick start. Just a differing thought

  34. russ99 says:

    Oh well, we missed out on Dan Boyle.

    To the Islanders for a conditional draft pick.

    I’d kill to see the Oilers make this kind of deal someday.

  35. commonfan14 says:

    russ99: Oh well, we missed out on Dan Boyle.
    To the Islanders for a conditional draft pick

    The value of that 2015 1st drops a little more with every move Snow makes to go for it next year. Let him make a few more I say, and then go calling on Buffalo about it.

    Rarely a bad idea to bet on bad things happening to the Isles.

  36. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Terrific post, LT. Solid methodology on a player-by-player basis. The idea to fold in the “first round leftovers” was inspired.

    It’s easy, but in fact way TOO easy to look at a draft list in retrospect 3 or 4 years later & say “shoulda drafted Faulk!” In truth the second round is a hit-and-miss zone for draft picks generally. 15 of 30 with even a cup of coffee 4 years out, 9 of them with <30 GP. Call them scratch hits rather than home runs. Oilers had 3 of the 30 picks, and in Marincin surely they got 1 of the top 10 prospects from this round by today's reckoning, maybe even top 5.

    Oilers did right by Marincin in sending him to WHL not once but twice when they had the option to send him to AHL. I'd argue they did wrong by Pitlick by graduating him from junior when they did. In retrospect — there's that word again — he would have been better served to play an overage season in the Hat.

    Curtis Hamilton on the other hand already had 4 WHL seasons under his belt, so I wouldn't make that same argument, even as he had a near identical late-91 birthday as Pitlick. Same goes for Ryan Martindale, another big 19-year-old forward that turned pro a year out from that 2010 draft.

    Besides Taylor Hall, Pitlick, Hamilton, and Martindale, Oilers drafted yet a fifth late-'91 in that draft, Brandon Davidson, and in his case did the right thing in sending him back to junior. The side benefit is that now in the spring of 2014, BD still has a year to run on his ELC, whereas dudes like Pitlick & Hamilton have already reached Decision Point in terms of renewal.

    Not saying one size fits all for these late birthdays, just that individual cases for non-elite players should be carefully evaluated. For a highly-experienced junior like Hamilton or Martindale, maybe it's a no-brainer to move him along to pro; but for a guy like Pitlick or Davidson that may be a bit behind on the learning curve, holding him back isn't the worst idea.

  37. Bar_Qu says:

    If the Oilers draft Draisaitl, can we start calling him “The Professional”?

    http://goo.gl/jodSa5

  38. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Terrific post, LT.Solid methodology on a player-by-player basis. The idea to fold in the “first round leftovers” was inspired.

    It’s easy, but in fact way TOO easy to look at a draft list in retrospect 3 or 4 years later & say “shoulda drafted Faulk!” In truth the second round is a hit-and-miss zone for draft picks generally. 15 of 30 with even a cup of coffee 4 years out, 9 of them with <30 GP.Call them scratch hits rather than home runs. Oilers had 3 of the 30 picks, and in Marincin surely they got 1 of the top 10 prospects from this round by today’s reckoning, maybe even top 5.

    Oilers did right by Marincin in sending him to WHL not once but twice when they had the option to send him to AHL. I’d argue they did wrong by Pitlick by graduating him from junior when they did. In retrospect — there’s that word again — he would have been better served to play an overage season in the Hat.

    Curtis Hamilton on the other hand already had 4 WHL seasons under his belt, so I wouldn’t make that same argument, even as he had a near identical late-91 birthday as Pitlick. Same goes for Ryan Martindale, another big 19-year-old forward that turned pro a year out from that 2010 draft.

    Besides Taylor Hall, Pitlick, Hamilton, and Martindale, Oilers drafted yet a fifth late-’91 in that draft, Brandon Davidson, and in his case did the right thing in sending him back to junior. The side benefit is that now in the spring of 2014, BD still has a year to run on his ELC, whereas dudes like Pitlick & Hamilton have already reached Decision Point in terms of renewal.

    Not saying one size fits all for these late birthdays, just that individual cases for non-elite players should be carefully evaluated. For a highly-experienced junior like Hamilton or Martindale, maybe it’s a no-brainer to move him along to pro; but for a guy like Pitlick or Davidson that may be a bit behind on the learning curve, holding him back isn’t the worst idea.

    Oilers drafted 1st, 16th and 18th in the 2nd rd of the 2010 draft (also 31st, ie 1st in 3rd round) and came away with 1 player. Good player but 1 player. Believe that is the clubs most successful draft in eons

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    TheOtherJohn: Oilers darafted 1st, 16th and 18th in the 2010 draft (also 31st, ie 1st in 3rd round) and came away with 1 player.Good player but 1 player. Believe that is the clubs most successful draft in eons

    I have no idea what to make of this comment.

  40. TheOtherJohn says:

    Sorry for not including “2nd rd of the…..” in the original post

    We pick 1st in the 2nd rd. We pick 16th in the 2nd rd & we pick 18th in the 2nd rd. We also pick 31 st in the 2nd rd which is, of course, 1st in the 3rd round.

    We get 1 player out of 4 pretty prime late picks and call it success.

    Sure hope we kill it in trades and FA signings

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Sorry for not including “2nd rd of the…..” in the original post

    We pick 1st in the 2nd rd. We pick 16th in the 2nd rd & we pick 18th in the 2nd rd. We also pick 31 st in the 2nd rd which is, of course, 1st in the 3rd round.

    We get 1 player out of 4 pretty prime late picks and call it success.

    Sure hope we kill it in trades and FA signings

    ah!

    I was so confused.

    ————
    What if Pitlick plays 200 NHL games?

  42. Jordan says:

    TheOtherJohn: Oilers drafted 1st, 16th and 18th in the 2nd rd of the 2010 draft (also 31st, ie 1st in 3rd round) and came away with 1 player.Good player but 1 player. Believe that is the clubs most successful draft in eons

    If memory serves, average odds of getting an NHL regular in the 2nd are 25%.

    If they get one on three picks… they beat the odds.

    The fact that Pitlick is still in the conversation makes this look even better.

    The fact that people complain about the drafting here is laughable.

    The Oilers’ problems haven’t been draft-related for the last 5 drafts.

    Might as well complain about how Taylor Hall hasn’t carried this team into the playoffs on his own, or Wayne Gretzky didn’t score 50 goals in 20 games.

    Ridiculous.

  43. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Terrific post, LT.Solid methodology on a player-by-player basis. The idea to fold in the “first round leftovers” was inspired.

    It’s easy, but in fact way TOO easy to look at a draft list in retrospect 3 or 4 years later & say “shoulda drafted Faulk!” In truth the second round is a hit-and-miss zone for draft picks generally. 15 of 30 with even a cup of coffee 4 years out, 9 of them with <30 GP.Call them scratch hits rather than home runs. Oilers had 3 of the 30 picks, and in Marincin surely they got 1 of the top 10 prospects from this round by today’s reckoning, maybe even top 5.

    Oilers did right by Marincin in sending him to WHL not once but twice when they had the option to send him to AHL. I’d argue they did wrong by Pitlick by graduating him from junior when they did. In retrospect — there’s that word again — he would have been better served to play an overage season in the Hat.

    Curtis Hamilton on the other hand already had 4 WHL seasons under his belt, so I wouldn’t make that same argument, even as he had a near identical late-91 birthday as Pitlick. Same goes for Ryan Martindale, another big 19-year-old forward that turned pro a year out from that 2010 draft.

    Besides Taylor Hall, Pitlick, Hamilton, and Martindale, Oilers drafted yet a fifth late-’91 in that draft, Brandon Davidson, and in his case did the right thing in sending him back to junior. The side benefit is that now in the spring of 2014, BD still has a year to run on his ELC, whereas dudes like Pitlick & Hamilton have already reached Decision Point in terms of renewal.

    Not saying one size fits all for these late birthdays, just that individual cases for non-elite players should be carefully evaluated. For a highly-experienced junior like Hamilton or Martindale, maybe it’s a no-brainer to move him along to pro; but for a guy like Pitlick or Davidson that may be a bit behind on the learning curve, holding him back isn’t the worst idea.

    Agreed. As we go days with nothing to discuss, I’m planning on sifting through late birthdays in rounds two and three to see what we can see. I’m hoping to win the lottery or be drowned by a rum shower beforehand, but chances are it won’t happen.

    I hoped for the best, and it turned out as always. I love Russians.

  44. TheOtherJohn says:

    If that happened we would hear what a genius Stu MacGregor is.

    I am prepared to make a wager on that possibility. Interested?

    Why is it when a pick misses it was Tambellini’s fault but if it hits Stu is a genius?

  45. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jordan: The Oilers’ problems haven’t been draft-related for the last 5 drafts.

    We are coming up on the 5 year anniversary of Hesketh and Abney.

    Wait a few weeks and then your comment will stand up better.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Agreed. As we go days with nothing to discuss, I’m planning on sifting through late birthdays in rounds two and three to see what we can see.

    It’s an interesting topic. Don’t be too surprised to find a complementary/complimentary post out there in the ‘sphere, riffing off my earlier comment which has got me to thinking a bit deeper on the matter.

    Some time I’d like to do a wide scale study of late birthdays, but Oilers’ Class of 2010 is a very interesting test case with a nice array of examples.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: We are coming up on the 5 year anniversary of Hesketh and Abney.

    Wait a few weeks and then your comment will stand up better.

    Heh. That was a weird draft. 2009 fourth round might each third round’s lunch

  48. Deadman Waiting says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    One of the things we need to come to terms with — in the same way we try to with on-ice play — is the sheer amount of luck involved in everything.

    The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin treats this subject at book length. It was a fairly light read and not earth-shattering, but then Malcolm Gladwell’s beard-wearing evil-Spock doesn’t make regular guest appearances, either, so you can read it with first inflating your mental Bilsteins.

    One of the problems is that often skill is also a minor form of luck. Often in sports or investing, skill is actually edge. Edge is where you know something important about the present market dynamics that no-one else has figured out yet. That’s largely what happened in the Moneyball story (I realize having mentioned Moneyball in LT’s presence, I’m now obligated to work in six compensatory references to Bullitt or another two digs at Malcolm Gladwell involving Star Trek–car metaphors).

    A big part of edge is being in the right place at the right time, having benefited from the right experience. There is a certain skill credit owing for actually noticing each of these elements, plus a pubic hair credit for actually grabbing onto the bouncing football and steaming into the seam against the grain.

    Very quickly two things usually happen: all the other copycat coaches figure out how to mix the same secret sauce, or they figure out effective countermeasures for your PP formation that was clicking along at 25%

    Copycat coaches (the vast majority of coaches who haven’t already won a pennant by their sophomore season) do have a tendency to worry about being perceived as crib sheet sluggards; they will often overreact so as to seem decisive.

    Genius is the person who can find one edge to unsettle the field, then manufacture another edge out of each increasingly desperate counter-reaction made by peers than never quite catch up. That goes way beyond skill into the higher echelons of actual talent.

    This is why reputation is not nearly so reliable as many make it out to be. Yesterday’s expired edge is tomorrow’s whithered onion. In many cases skill is a one-off deal. What you do get for hiring reputation is the confidence that at least the person pulled it off once without at the same time shooting self in foot. An unbridled skill-seeker soon shackles the good to the bogus in a colossal enterprise of Go Fish. This can actually work out if the fisher king is especially quick to expunge failure, the critical skill being the mental capacity to keep all the experiments straight while trialling them all at the same time.

    I remain cautiously optimistic that this is the core gift in Dallas Eakins that accounts for MacT hiring him against the grain in the first place: his capacity to spot something shiny in the middle of shit storm. To start with something that lacks structure and accelerate the maturation process, a capacity to directly engage the shit storm is highly desirable. Can he afford to sit back and look competent on a stately progression of merely one good idea after another? Let’s see, if he introduces a good idea every 25 games, and we’re a dozen good ideas away from firing on all cylinders, that’s 3.5 seasons down the road; the nucleus of players he has so carefully cultivated are by now on fire over their looming free-agency status.

    ———

    In the Rorschach test, when they hand you those inkblot cards, one the attributes the psychiatrist is scoring is whether you hold the card exactly as it is given to you, or whether you spin it around; and if you wish to spin it around, whether you go right ahead or first ask permission to do so.

    I think about three minutes into this drill, Eakins scoops up the whole stack off the shrink’s lap (startle reflex circumvented into retracted-genital repressed sneeze), displaces some furniture to clear a space at the nearest wall, pins them up, deftly shuffles the assortment of hips and lips and butterflies into some kind of cohesive narrative, grabs the nearest pointer-like object (a folded umbrella) and begins to lecture his inquisitor on his newfound determination:

    “Alright, listen up, pointy beard. Our fugitives have been on the run for ninety minutes. Average foot speed over uneven ground barring injuries is 4 miles-per-hour. That gives us a radius of six miles. What I want from you and each and every one of your bookkeepers, receptionists, and janitors is a hard-target search of every subway station, tenement, warehouse, henhouse, outhouse, doghouse and dry-docked rowboat in this area. Checkpoints go up at fifteen blocks. Your fugitive’s names are Arthur Eric Rowton Gill and Bonnie Parker.” Here Eakins pauses to protrude his jib.

    “Hey, doctor, how did I do? It goes even better if I’m wearing both my pearl-handled revolvers at the same time, but I actually don’t wear them together as often as my reputation would have it.”

    “Can you take dictation in short hand?”

    “I can learn.”

    “Well then, you’re hired.”

    Pointy-beard picks up a pen and scribbles “ciao” onto a small pink Post-It note with a decisive double underline.

    “Tracy won’t be expecting this, but just stick it onto her monitor as you pass through reception on your to the elevator. She’ll notice it when she returns from the midday leave I gave her to complete her apartment search. I’m sure she’ll take it as a professional. Ms Flick really belongs in Brussels anyway. I don’t know what she was thinking signing up at this gordforsaken outpost in the first place. Father issues, no doubt. Hmmmm. Yes.”

    Eakins pipes up. “One thing, though”.

    “What can I do for you?”

    “I like my office to have plenty of room to flex my elbows. The tea service table and the filing cabinets have got to go.”

    “Are you perhaps referring to those big cabinets with the patient files?”

    “Whatever.”

    “Interesting. I like your energy, so suit yourself, but for myself I always found those files useful. New prescriptions are best considered in light of past prescriptions. Leads to fewer unplanned episodes, in my view.”

    “Well, how can that matter a hill of beans? The right Rx is the right Rx for any patient, any time. Listen, there’s really very little to be learned from patient history. I tested this out on my own kids. You’ll see. Listen, we’ll have this whole practice turned around in no time. And hey, old guy, why don’t you do this Post-It errand yourself? You look like you could use a stroll. I’ll be taking the stairs, so I won’t pass by her desk.”

    “Ciao,” Eakins calls back, departing like Dash Incredible pumped up on methamphetamines in search of the one true Rx.

    Pointy-beard blinks.

    Ugh. What’s this? Tightness in the bowel area. Clammy pits. Perspiration along the hairline. Jittery fingers. There appears to be something … something … something unsettled in my subconscious. Could it be that I don’t want to affix this curt and effectual notice on Tracy’s monitor with my very own bony fingers?

    For what possible reason?

    Hmmmm. I’ll have to give that some thought later on. But for now, glass of water, deep breath, rise carefully, adjust the tie, and stride out into reception like you own the place, tack down the sticky note, grab my hat, and straight out the door for lunch.

    And yeah, there’s this great place on the other side of town. Haven’t been there for months. And it is such a nice day for a long stroll. Perhaps I could also pick up a gift for the wife on the way back. Tracy, well, she was just so …
    much.

  49. Lowetide says:

    I’ve changed on Moneyball. You’re free to roam about the earth as a free man.

  50. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: We are coming up on the 5 year anniversary of Hesketh and Abney.

    Wait a few weeks and then your comment will stand up better.

    Didn’t Stu give the walking papers to the scout who vouched for Abney, with whining from some sections of the blogosphere when the guy was turfed?

  51. godot10 says:

    I guess I was thinking about Hesketh and the guy who scouted him, and turfed.

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