THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND

The Edmonton Oilers have a third overall pick and four options this year at the NHL Entry Draft. We talked about Aaron Ekblad today, and I passed along some stats breakdowns for Ekblad and recent grads at this positions. Let’s have a look at the top forwards, by discipline:

EVEN STRENGTH

PPG NAME (LEAGUE) GP G A PTS
1.05 SAM REINHART, WHL 60 22 41 63
1.035 SAM BENNETT, OHL 57 25 34 59
.969 LEON DRAISAITL, WHL 64 25 37 62
.776 MICHAEL DAL COLLE, OHL 67 23 29 52

Reinhart rules in a close race, I don’t really think anyone can claim victory based on these numbers. We don’t have time on ice, there’s miles of chatter online about qual team but it seems unreliable (from what I’ve read), so it’s probably best to say we’re looking at three guys in the same range, and Dal Colle.

 

POWER PLAY

Age NAME (LEAGUE) GP G A PTS
.667 SAM REINHART, WHL 60 12 28 40
.641 MICHAEL DAL COLLE, OHL 67 16 27 43
.625 LEON DRAISAITL, WHL 64 12 28 40
.509 SAM BENNETT, OHL 57 10 19 29

Different scenario here, Reinhart again on top and Dal Colle in second place. That’s interesting, and remember Bob McKenzie mentioned not long ago that 4-5 between Draisaitl and Dal Colle may be closer than most of us believe. I spoke to Jeff Krushell today about Bennett’s pull-up moment, and he said that it probably hurt him a little. Human nature, I guess.

PENALTY KILL

Age NAME (LEAGUE) GP G A PTS
.052 SAM BENNETT, OHL 57 1 2 3
.047 LEON DRAISAITL, WHL 64 1 2 3
.033 SAM REINHART, WHL 60 2 0 2
.017 AARON EKBLAD, OHL 58 1 0 1

If you were making a case for Sam Bennett, you’d want him to be on top, and he is. Draisaitl right there too, and it goes without saying that it’s a small sample size and that scoring on the PK doesn’t mean a lot. It does tell us who played 4×5 though, and I threw Ekblad in for fun.

mckenzie tweet response what the hell he responded!.

This is going to be fun! I think this is too close for anyone to call with authority. Including the NHL teams. I think they’re going to walk to the podium, take their choice, and hope like hell he’s the one.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

53 Responses to "THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND"

  1. Rondo says:

    If DRAISAITL is Kopitar

    and Bennett is Toews

    I take Toews all day.

    But they are not those players . I like Bennett’s 200ft game Oilers don’t have a player like him

    I like DRAISAITL size and puck possession Oilers don’t have a player like him.

    I don’t really know how I feel about Reinhart he seems to be good at everything and excels with hockey sense.

    Yet another mock draft

    http://thescoutingbureau.wordpress.com/2014/06/04/rossyyoungbloods-final-2014-nhl-draft-ranking/

  2. Zangetsu says:

    If Eckblad is there at three, and the oilers go for Draisaitl, I’m fine with that. If they take Draisaitl over bennett or rein hart, they are stupid.
    The pull-up thing does worry me, as it isn’t hard to do a pull-up. He didn’t wince, or favour a side, which makes me think he wasn’t injured. To me this reflects more of a lack of commitment to training than a lack of strength. Maybe we could trade down and still get him though.
    Reinhart is awesome. I have him and bennett on par, but give bennett the edge based on age, and grittiness.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    IfDRAISAITL is Kopitar

    and Bennett is Toews

    I take Toews all day.

    But they are not those players . I like Bennett’s 200ft game Oilers don’t have a player like him

    I likeDRAISAITL size and puck possessionOilers don’t have a player like him.

    I don’t really know how I feel about Reinhart he seems to be good at everything and excels with hockey sense.

    Yet another mock draft

    http://thescoutingbureau.wordpress.com/2014/06/04/rossyyoungbloods-final-2014-nhl-draft-ranking/

    I’d argue in favor of the Nuge in that 200 foot conversation. He has a ways to go maturing, but that’s what he is.

  4. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    I would agree.

  5. Deadman Waiting says:

    Cui bono, human nature?

    Let’s draw up a payoff matrix, in non-tabular form since there’s not so much as a “preview” button at hand to guide me through the markup quagmire.

    Top row: No pull-ups, no potential.
    Bottom row: No pull-ups, one big hill of beans.

    First pair of columns: Bennett selected early.
    Second pair of columns: Bennett drops well down.

    Here I’ll list them all separately.

    Left column: Impact on team selecting early.
    2nd column: Impact on teams selecting shortly after Bennett is off the table.
    3rd column: Impact on team passing-over, early in draft.
    Right column: Impact on team courageously selecting on the drop.

    In the P row (in which zero pull-ups correctly implies that Bennett sucks) the large negative number falls to the leftmost box, to the team that nevertheless selects Bennett first overall while immediately subsequent teams benefit from a buffet with fewer land mines.

    In the /P row (in which zero pull-ups implies Nilagro—that’s a mildly cryptic movie reference) a team selecting Bennett first overall at least deserves a manhood medallion (there’s still much at stake whether he clears the bar) and the teams selecting subsequently have fewer riches to pick among.

    The HUGE windfall box is found in the cell at the bottom right, where some lucky scouting SOB selects Bennett sixth or seventh overall, and Bennett proves to have been the cream of the crop despite his self-hoisting flop.

    Well, any monkey could pick Bennett seventh overall, even if he’s a human suction cup (stare at the first frame for 2.5 seconds until the penny drops).

    Human nature, cui bono?

    ———

    The dictionary entry at Spanish Central lists some above-average idiomatic examples:

    ese CD aquí no se consigue ni de milagro
    you can’t get that CD here for love nor money

    un buen maquillaje puede hacer milagros
    decent make-up can work wonders

    The literal Spanish translation for milagro is neither money nor wonder, but actually “miracle”.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    NHLE GD edition (x .3 across board)

    Reinhart: 43.05
    Draisaitl: 40.37
    Bennett: 39.36

    NHLE Vollman edition (x .3 OHL; x .26 WHL/Q)

    Bennett: 39.36
    Reinhart: 37.31
    Draisaitl: 34.99

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I love Draisaitl… but man… all 3 look like a lot of fun to invite over for a bar-b-q and suds for the next 15 years.

    I really can’t see (from here) how you can go wrong. take your favorite and send them back to junior. In five years we’ll know. right now… can’t see the blank spaces between the players.

  8. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    The PP and PK charts suggest they are years from being ready for the draft. That’s taking pick the youngest too far.

  9. Rondo says:

    There is no right or wrong with these 3 players and if the are in the same group , I’ll take size

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    ps. I watched those combine vids with the wife (my treat to her… “hey babe, come see some teenagers get tortured!”), here’s Ekblad’s:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=622766&catid=4

    (disappointed I couldn’t find Draisaitl’s anywhere)

    at any rate, she said she thought Dal Colle was the scariest looking one. I immediately liked him more.

  11. maudite says:

    You are posting like a demon. IN response to your earliest post today, you mentioned the 3rd as part of a package for Coburn?

    I am starting to think I might be a contrarian to everything oiler’s these days. When I look at this team, I see no way this year is a year of truly contending. I see the grass roots of a solid D core coming but no real forward (especially center help) in our minor system. I keep that pick. IMO, maybe wrong, but teams drafting in top 5 are far from the point where 1st overalls should even be considered in play. I just want improvement next year. Likely not playoffs but improvement. Out of the bottom ten (ie still faint playoff hopes in March/April) is what I would be shooting for (higher if luck decides to favour). Slow steady progression from this point forward selling high and buying low all the while ensuring you keep pipeline capable of supplying a player or two a year. I get the impatience and desire to turn the corner but when I look at things, I think we are much more likely to take a sharp turn off the bridge Islander style than anything else, if we push too hard at this point… I really think that the biggest failure post Pronger is not developing players properly. Petry/Marincin/Eberle actually charted a longer route to NHL duty over pushing over heads. Hard to argue there wasn’t huge benefit in doing so. Draft Rein or Dras at three, put back into the minors and keep Nurse in the minors. Possibly work Klefbom into NHL if he kills it top pairing AHL early this season.

    This team has managed itself into a corner. If it truly does aspire to become a solid contending team, the long road is the right one. Yes, it’s been 8 years but the return of the 1st say three is next to zero at this point:

    Brossiot, Gagner, Petry, whatever pick we got for Cogs and Brodziak…nothing for souray, lubo, gilbert, POS, Smyth, etc…

    If I can package Gagner for something that still has some mileage left on the tires (3rd line 25-28 year old) sure. But only if I can couple that with a UFA signing with the cap savings. A clear top 2 center role open might be make it easier to land the Grabo/Legwand types.

    The only key piece I really think would be wise to exchange:

    If I can parlay the potential of J Shultz into someone that can hold down the top pairing for 3-4 more years then I do it. J Shultz should be 3rd pairing and 1st PP. Yandle style. We can’t do that. To top this off, we have defense by the bunches that need sheltered role the next few years. If a package with J Shultz can land me a better bet to hold down top pairing minutes, I think it’s a good idea. Phaneuf, Erhoff probably the higher end of what you can shake loose. That and 1 free agent signing probably has you in better shape. While Erhoff’s deal is a good contract, if Buffalo has learned anything from our failed mess, they should be starting to turn north about 2-3 years after this draft (leave players develop over pushing them into NHL is key).

    The only way I put the #3 in play is in a package for something outrageous like Giordano. I know, pipe dream but that is the level of asset I’m chasing with a package before giving up what should be the last guaranteed winning scratch ticket.

  12. Jon K says:

    I said earlier in the year that Bennett’s combination of being very young and an impressive ES scorer made him the number one with a bullet. Quite frankly, I think his accomplishments are even more impressive when you consider how physically underdeveloped he is.

    In the end, I doubt it matters. Buffalo and Florida are both reportedly looking for offensive talent so I’d guess Bennett and Reinhart are both gone when the Oilers pick. If that is the scenario, MacT is the poor stiff who has to choose between Ekblad and Draisaitl.

    As a general comment, I think we as fans should temper our expectations for the pick this year. Despite Kopitar and Gilmour being thrown around as comparables, we should be probably talking about Bonk and Callahan, given how often and frequently we’ve heard scouts talk about this being a draft year devoid of a MacKinnon or Hall.

  13. VOR says:

    First, does pull up strength correlates with your ability to play hockey? Is there evidence to prove that? If not, and by the way there are no published studies saying it matters, then Bennett is still an extremely hard working, pugnacious kid who is also very young if I recall correctly. To date only VO2 Max and hand grip strength amongst these preposterous tests they do at the NHL combine have been shown to correlate with on ice performance.

    Why they don’t do skating drills and Wingate testing on skates is beyond me. For that matter skating against resistance and any number of other tests make more sense than the junk they currently test.

  14. Younger Oil says:

    For me, as long as they take one of the “top 4″, they can’t lose. You could easily justify picking any of those players, they are all so tight. Hopefully every fan can appreciate that if they make the pick, they are getting a hell of a player.

    There are just so many options of what to do with the pick, it will be really interesting to see how it turns out. I still think that making the pick is still the best option, no matter what. To me, trading down makes sense only if it is done multiple times, and turn the 3OV into something like a player/quality prospect, a late 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Getting early picks is so crucial for a rebuilding team, and IMO we just can’t afford not picking between #3 and #91. The prospect pool seems to be getting better and better, but still has a ways to go.

    Trading the pick for a player straight across is by far the least appealing option, unless we are able to find a way to get a couple more picks before #91 (Gagner?). That being said, it would have to take an incredible player.

    Honestly, to me, the smartest thing to do would be to try to get the #1OV from Florida without giving up the #3. That 2015 1st round pick could actually go a long way towards getting a big piece right now. Getting Ekblad AND one of the centers could really, really help this team going forward. Now is probably the best time to deal the 2015 pick, unless we get the 2015 1OV (which Buffalo is trying to lock down it seems). During the season, losing teams almost never deal 1st rounders, as teams usually only offer upcoming free agents. We obviously wouldn’t trade it if we got the #1OV next year, but there is only a maximum 25% chance of that happening, and that’s only if we are the last place team. As weird as it sounds, it might have it’s highest trade value right now, as teams view it as a great McDavid lottery ticket, and because it is the offseason essentially every team could offer up a quality return for it, or at least more than they would if they were in the middle of a playoff race. Just food for thought.

    Lastly, as of right now, if Miller doesn’t sign with STL (Doesn’t seem like he will), I believe that Buffalo has three 2nd round picks this year. I bet their intent is to use two of them to get another 1st round pick, but I wonder if we could get one from them.

    Sorry for the long post.

  15. Zangetsu says:

    VOR,

    I agree with you. They should be doing like a 40 yard skate and a skating shuttle thing. Pull-ups are not as important as say squats, but you can’t just say they have no effect on hockey players. They aren’t hard to do, so it speaks volumes about his training in general. I could do about 10 pull-ups at 16. I don’t know a single athlete at my school that couldn’t do a pull-up. It really is a big deal. I think he did about 4 reps of 150 on bench as well. I’m 5’10, 170, and I was warming up with ten at 150 at age 16. It is worrisome to me. I’m not some great athlete either. I was pretty average in high school.

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BTW

    Bonk’s draft year NHLE (GD) from the IHL is 42.24

  17. Rondo says:

    Well there is this study

    “Relationship of physical fitness test results and hockey playing potential in elite-level ice hockey “players.

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18714234

  18. Rondo says:

    Andy O’Brien Sam Bennett’s trainer.

    Andy O’Brien @bodybyobrien · Jun 1
    Incidentally, Bennett has the best horizontal jumping ability of any prospect I’ve worked with. Still raw and huge capacity for development

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo:
    Andy O’BrienSam Bennett’strainer.

    Andy O’Brien @bodybyobrien·Jun 1
    Incidentally, Bennett has the best horizontal jumping ability of any prospect I’ve worked with. Still raw and huge capacity for development

    that does sound pretty incidental.

  20. VOR says:

    Here is another question? What if the Oilers could acquire some monsters for the forward ranks would anyone still be planning to trade Gagner or Yakupov. By monsters I mean the real thing – imagine a center so physically imposing he scares even the biggest NHL D and who is also in the top four in the NHL in Fenwick% Close and a giant center (even bigger than the first) who has been described thusly “the thing about him is he just never stops working, both ends of the ice, all disciplines, he just keeps coming. He just wears you into the ice.”

    If you knew two of your center spots were filled by huge young men who would be dominant NHL players for at least the next decade then who do you draft?

    It would be easy to acquire these two players if you changed your search terms. Don’t look for real NHL players but rather for emerging players. For example, what if your second line was centered by Anders Lee. Still want to ship Yakupov off. For that matter what if Sam Gagner was playing right wing with Austin Watson as his center.? Still think the Oilers are too small?

    I proposed some time ago adding free agents Jim O’Brien, Peter Regin, and Nick Johnson. Trade down to Nashville at 11OV, and get Watson and yes you may need to add a prospect. Use the 11th to grab whichever power forward is still available – probably Ritchie. Trade next year’s first for Anders Lee. Those five guys become the supporting cast for next year’s Oilers.

    You’ve now fixed 4 of 6 major Oilers problems – they are now gigantic down the middle, over all nobody is kicking sand in the Oilers face any more, the work ethic is through the roof, and your penalty killing is light years better. Also, you have a group of big tough forwards coming up through the system. Yakimov, Ritchie, Moroz, Chase, Kharia, and so on. Yet you have sacrificed no skill.

  21. Rondo says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Part of the study

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18714234

    “Standing long jump was identified as a significant predictor variable for forwards and defense and could be a useful surrogate for assessing overall hockey potential. Significant differences exist between the physiological profiles of current players based on playing position.”

  22. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: that does sound pretty incidental.

    This does sound kind of comical. Like.. “great.. if he ever has to leap over 8 bodies, he should do great!”

    However, I’ll throw out a quote of a guy (“Zackman”, who posts here from time to time) who wrote up a pretty good write up on the NHL Draft Combine for my blog a while back. He put a lot of research into this:

    On the long jump:

    From the Draft Combine article
    “Another good test for explosive power. Like Matt Nichol (TSN Fitness Specialist) stated, the long jump can also be an indicator of how well an athlete uses their body (skating). The more they can stabilize the jump landing with the lower body usually means they are a more agile skater.”

    So while I don’t really read too much into this stuff, I guess there’s a method to their madness in all these tests that don’t seem directly related to hockey.

  23. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I’d argue in favor of the Nuge in that 200 foot conversation. He has a ways to go maturing, but that’s what he is.

    Eakins had the bobblehead awfully befuddled the last 50 ft. last year. It might have served the bobblehead to talk back instead of bobble. Defensive regression for the Nuge last year.

  24. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Eakins had the bobblehead awfully befuddled the last 50 ft. last year. It might have served the bobblehead to talk back instead of bobble.Defensive regression for the Nuge last year.

    Ha! Is that his nickname? I hadn’t heard that.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Part of the study

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18714234

    “Standing long jump was identified as a significant predictor variable for forwards and defense and could be a useful surrogate for assessing overall hockey potential. Significant differences exist between the physiological profiles of current players based on playing position.”

    Incidentally, what does it say about horizontal jumping?

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Ha! Is that his nickname? I hadn’t heard that.

    i thought he called Perron that?

  27. VanOil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: i thought he called Perron that?

    Eakins took about 6 month to learn there names so he called a lot of people that.

  28. sliderule says:

    I don’t think Bennet’/s pull-up miss will affect his draft.He should go top two.I have a friend who joked that he didn’t want to impress the two oiler workout addicts.

    The question is who will oilers take between either Ekblad Reinhart or Draisaitl.

    I think Matty has it right they want Draisaitl and possibly would take him before Ekblad.

  29. VOR says:

    Rondo, the paper you cite ivy Jamie Burr cites Vescovi’s earlier paper finding that there was no relationship and says (all in the first paragraph of the discussion) that in eight years of data the best model Jamie could create showed only 10% of variance was explained by all test results. In 2013 Sebatien Edman ends his paper on the same subject by saying no causative relationship has ever been found between off ice exercises and the results thereof and on ice performance.

  30. sliderule says:

    VOR:
    Rondo, the paper you cite ivy Jamie Burr cites Vescovi’s earlier paper finding that there was no relationship and says (all in the first paragraph of the discussion) that in eight years of data the best model Jamie could create showed only 10% of variance was explained by all test results. In 2013 Sebatien Edman ends his paper on the same subject by saying no causative relationship has ever been found between off ice exercises and the results thereof and on ice performance.

    I second this.If they can’t figure out how to do on ice testing save the time and money and cancel it..If the Nhl did on ice combine testing it could be a huge PR exposure for nhl.
    If they held onto videos and results to the week before draft it would build suspense

  31. VanOil says:

    sliderule: I second this.If they can’t figure out how to do on ice testing save the time and money and cancel it..If the Nhl did on ice combine testing it could be a huge PR exposure for nhl.
    If they held onto videos and results to the week before draft it would build suspense

    It is damn near impossible to get ice time in Toronto in June, with the Leafs in the playoffs and such.

  32. knighttown says:

    In the NFL the quarterback position has become so difficult and so crucial for success that almost nothing else matters. In certain years there are only 5-15 guys in the he world who can truly play the position well enough to give their team a title shot barring an generational defense. There is virtually no trade that would have made sense for the patriots to move Tom Brady when he was 25.

    The QB plays roughly half the game and is unquestionably the most important player in all of sports. I wonder how close to this stratosphere that mythical #1 defenseman has become. Imagine if the Dodgers could roll Clayton Kershaw out 4 times a week? How much more valuable does he become than Yasiel Puig?

    Rangers, Kings, Hawks, Habs. McDonough, Doughty, Keith, Subban.

    It’s almost half the game. It’s the focal point of the power play that produce a third of the goals. It’s the focal point of the PK that produces a third of the other teams goals. And forget all that. I saw with my own eyes what Chris Pronger did that spring.

    I think we’re getting there. Drew Doughtys impact is 25 year old Tom Brady or Clayton Kershaw 4 days a week. It can’t be overestimated. If you don’t have him or similar you aren’t favored to win.

    When you consider how terrible this draft is for defensemen and that the Mark Fraser player type is dying, are we getting close to the point that the supply and demand for defensemen overall is out of whack?

    I do agree that Ekblad may not be as “good” as Reinhart but I still take him. Why? If he’s not where you find Tom Brady then where do you find him? And two? This asset just will not decline in value.

    Also, I call 9 times a day on PK Subban until that contract is signed.

  33. Deadman Waiting says:

    I very nearly took a pass today on Dallas Eakins made plenty of rookie mistakes in his first season as Edmonton Oilers’ bench boss, figuring I was well acquainted with everything Staples has to say on the matter (which is fine right up to the point where abandonment of subtlety somehow folds back into the cookie dough as a predicate rather than as a treatment) but then I was surprised to discover that Bruce had carapaced himself in Staple’s favoured bête noire.

    I didn’t pick this up until the giveaway moment where I continued to nod, sentence after sentence, all the way through the hairpin corner, out of which Staples usually emerges like a house on fire.

    I don’t, however, classify Eakins’ mistakes as rookie mistakes. Many of his inaugural mistakes were just plan delusional. Not watching enough of the team’s game tape over the summer months was flat-out hubris. Even the negative mood in the coaches room, which one might ordinarily attribute to teething pains, I would guess had more to do to his coaching associates (much to their credit) having sane reactions to a boss man gripped with delusional hubris.

    Staples at this point, having heard enough, might ignite his torch to curry consensus. Unfortunately, in the view of the decisive decider, delusional hubris comes in several flavours.

    The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.

    Myself, I have yet to give up on the Spumone, if Eakins manages to lay off the whipped cream and nuts. All the same, I would hardly venture to disagree with a word that Bruce has written, except to suggest that counting down arrows post-implosion is eerily similar to latching an empty barn door.

    ———

    In today’s Neapolitan adventure, I encountered Leonard Nimoy, Susanna Hoffs, and Prince all snuggled together in the same tub; she was a family friend of the former, and Prince slipped her Manic Monday.

    Hoffs is also known for the lingerie scene in the 1980s flop movie The Allnighter written and directed by her own mother, who was apparently engaged in filming Oh! Velveeta!

    Speechless, I can only say O quel cul t’as!

  34. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    ps. I watched those combine vids with the wife (my treat to her… “hey babe, come see some teenagers get tortured!”), here’s Ekblad’s:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=622766&catid=4

    (disappointed I couldn’t find Draisaitl’s anywhere)

    at any rate, she said she thought Dal Colle was the scariest looking one. I immediately liked him more.

    I’m figuring on either Bennett or Dal Colle falling to 4th and Burke, sorry, I mean Treliving taking Dal Colle because of size and offensive potential.

    If Buffalo or Florida pass on Reinhart though, I think Burke takes him and grins like the butcher’s dog all day long.

  35. Lowetide says:

    Susanna Hoffs. If I ever abandon this blog and start another, it’ll be dedicated to Susanna Hoffs.

  36. jb says:

    The most likely option is Deal the pick for an established, slightly expensive, in his prime veteran center or Dman.

    That’s the only option that gets this team where it needs to go anytime soon. It’s 100% necessary.

  37. Lowetide says:

    jb:
    The most likely option is Deal the pick for an established, slightly expensive, in his prime veteran center or Dman.

    That’s the only option that gets this team where it needs to go anytime soon. It’s 100% necessary.

    Most likely option? They pick at 3. I do think your option is a good one, depending on return.

  38. Andy P says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: i thought he called Perron that?

    no, he called Nuge “a bobblehead” as a compliment to the way he just nods his head and goes out and does whatever he is asked to do without question.

  39. jb says:

    Lowetide,

    It’s very likely the picks dealt.. of course it won’t be given away, and takes 2 to make a deal.. but Sam Gagner by himself doesn’t get you the elite dman/center needed. The 3rd overall can go a long ways in getting that done. Almost zero chance Yak is dealt, zero chance Hall/Eberle/Nuge are dealt.

    1st, Gagner, one of Klef/Marincin are the only real pieces that will be in play.

  40. McKillWrath says:

    LT. I keep getting the feeling that this draft plays out like the 1990 draft. Huge top five with the franchise going fifth overall. Have a look see what you think.

  41. nycoil says:

    I

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    NHLE GD edition (x .3 across board)
    Reinhart: 43.05
    Draisaitl: 40.37
    Bennett: 39.36

    NHLE Vollman edition (x .3 OHL; x .26 WHL/Q)

    Bennett: 39.36
    Reinhart: 37.31
    Draisaitl: 34.99

    Does Rob use a straight average across the leagues going back or is there more weight assigned to recent history? Reason I ask is, in that Florida blog I linked a few days ago referencing Ehlers, the Q had 6.66 goals per game this year, down to below OHL levels? I can’t find concrete evidence to back that up. Looking at how MacKinnon blew his NHLE out of the water, could the pendulum have swung too far against the Q?

  42. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    nycoil,

    Vollman gives OHL huge nod.

    .3 vs .26 for WHL and Q

    you can see from above how it skews the same (I don’t mean skew in a pejorative sense here).

    I imagine if in the next 3 years or so MacKinnon, Druin, Ehlers, etc. all dominate the NHL, you’ll see a correction favoring the Q.

    But the general answer is, Yes. Vollman looks at the recent track record of the CHL leagues at feeding into NHL success… currently the OHL is winning the day.

  43. mumbai max says:

    VOR:
    Here is another question? What if the Oilers could acquire some monsters for the forward ranks would anyone still be planning to trade Gagner or Yakupov. By monsters I mean the real thing – imagine a center so physically imposing he scares even the biggest NHL D and who is also in the top four in the NHL in Fenwick% Close and a giant center(even bigger than the first) who has been described thusly “the thing about him is he just never stops working, both ends of the ice, all disciplines, he just keeps coming. He just wears you into the ice.”

    If you knew two of your center spots were filled by huge young men who would be dominant NHL players for at least the next decade then who do you draft?

    It would be easy to acquire these two players if you changed your search terms. Don’t look for real NHL players but rather for emerging players. For example, what if your second line was centered by Anders Lee. Still want to ship Yakupov off. For that matter what if Sam Gagner was playing right wing with Austin Watson as his center.? Still think the Oilers are too small?

    I proposed some time ago adding free agents Jim O’Brien, Peter Regin, and Nick Johnson. Trade down to Nashville at 11OV, and get Watson and yes you may need to add a prospect. Use the 11th to grab whichever power forward is still available – probably Ritchie. Trade next year’s first for Anders Lee. Those five guys become the supporting cast for next year’s Oilers.

    You’ve now fixed 4 of 6 major Oilers problems – they are now gigantic down the middle, over all nobody is kicking sand in the Oilers face any more, the work ethic is through the roof, and your penalty killing is light years better. Also, you have a group of big tough forwards coming up through the system. Yakimov, Ritchie, Moroz, Chase, Kharia, and so on. Yet you have sacrificed no skill.

    We did this. Yakimov and Khaira.

  44. VOR says:

    I think I finally figured out what troubles me about the constant “get veterans” group think that has emerged here.

    Let me be clear, I want to trade next year’s first round draft choice for Anders Lee (and presumably some other pieces). In limited exposure Lee killed it, and the closer the game the harder he played. His Fenwick % close is right up there with Anze Kopitar. Now admittedly Lee has a bit of Dustin Penner in him. But he has proven he can way outplay against NHL teams at least part of the time. (Penner of course is a great example of the exact strategy I want to follow – get great young players from other teams – not name stars on the downward slide to mediocre).

    Most proposals for trades the Oilers should make are for a veteran D or a veteran C. But then the proposer admits that we aren’t going to be contenders next year anyway and maybe not for several years. Thus, don’t we want players who will still be useful in 3 years and for several years there after? If we have more growing pains in the short term so what, especially when players like Lee or to a lesser extent Watson will be physically dominant from the beginning of next season. By the way, Watson may look like he can’t score at the AHL level but he actually lead Nashville’s offensively challenged farm team in goals. Last Chance Texaco players like O’Brien and Johnson and to a lesser extent Regin can bring intensity and all have a history of being real NHL players for at least one year – heck Regin is a corsi monster wherever he plays.

    If you want to improve your possession numbers this is the way – get young men who can skate, back check, win puck battles, and fore check like demons. In other words, slow the other team down and get your D-men that extra half second with the puck. Veterans who can do this cost a fortune – see David Clarkson or to some extent Joel Ward.

    Who should we add to the defence? Probably somebody like Brett Bellemore if Carolina doesn’t re-sign him. Further down the depth chart somebody like Zach Redmond. In other words legitimate depth defencemen. This is because depth matters on defence in the NHL.

    If you are going all in on a D-man surely you want somebody at the beginning of a Hall of Fame career – the Oilers can’t afford the sure thing so their choices are good but not great veterans or to go all in on one of the 3 or 4 young D in the league who are already putting up dazzling numbers – by the way I know full well the sample size is small – but for Lee and the next name I am going to throw out we know a great deal more than we know about any of the kids in this year’s draft. So I’d say add Gagner and something else to the Oilers first pick in 2015 and get back Anders Lee and Calvin de Haan.

    I can only assume that other people aren’t suggesting things like this because at some level they are simply so sick and tired of the Oilers losing and looking dispirited in the process that they dream of that big veteran team that can actually win more than it loses. To hell with whether getting there breaks the bank and mortgages the future.

    Elliott Friedman had it right when he said the Oilers have to stay the course. That means not trading the future for the past. This only leaves two options, do nothing, or trade future for future. De Haan, Lee, and Watson move the rebuild forward by a year or two each but still have their entire careers ahead of them.

    This is where pro scouts come in, and I am fascinated to observe how many of us will invest enormous energy in studying the draft but how few of us spend any time thinking about guys like Watson, Johnson, or O’Brien or dozens of other players playing pro hockey somewhere in the world but more or less off the NHL radar. (Just as an example – Mike Sislo – generally considered the hardest working player in the NHL and hard to miss that he is utterly fearless and his NHL possession numbers are out of this world. Same age Pisani was when he arrived in Edmonton. We criticize the Oilers pro scouting but we don’t expose it to the same scrutiny we do Stu and the boys.

  45. VOR says:

    Mumbai Max,

    Yes, we have started the process. The problem is that Yakimov and Khaira are still several years away which is why we want Lee and Watson who are much more NHL ready. Not to mention that Lee is an all world possession player which neither of the Oilers current big men have yet proven to be (and probably aren’t going to ever be) and Watson is a demon checker who can score – so more a two way center than a power forward. Yakimov is intriguing and possibly he would end up making Watson or another big man expendable – when the time finally came that one trade would take the Oilers to the promised land. But the help the Oilers current propects can offer is too far away – help is needed now and for the future – and emerging players are the only way to get those two things together without a Clarkson sized contract.

  46. delooper says:

    Did I not tell you all LA would smother NY like a big wet heavy blanket? Did I not!?!? I suspect this doesn’t go beyond a 5 game series.

  47. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: Most likely option? They pick at 3. I do think your option is a good one, depending on return.

    So do you think #3 & Gags gets you Phaneuf + Kadri or Phanuef + there pick . So much comes down to the team your trading with being prepared to go for it . Now I ask the teams that may give up a little bit more to rid themselves of a contract or player the coach/GM has given up on . Possibilities NYI , Toronto , Flyers , Buffalo . Any more ?

  48. RT26 says:

    Lowetide,

    AMEN!

    Susanna Hoffs is out of this world attractive…and she plays guitar which only amplifies her appeal. I would drink her bathwater. Man, I hope my wife does not read LT’s blog….sorry LT.

  49. jake70 says:

    Well, good to see some daylight here in Moncton. Had our “Mayerthorpe” last night. Man. Slept an hour – my house just outside the triangle they are looking. RIP mounties.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Hammers: So do you think #3 & Gags gets you Phaneuf + Kadri or Phanuef + there pick . So much comes down to the team your trading with being prepared to go for it . Now I ask the teams that may give up a little bit more to rid themselves of a contract or player the coach/GM has given up on . Possibilities NYI , Toronto , Flyers , Buffalo . Any more ?

    No. I think there’s a chance the Oilers trade No. 3 overall for immediate help. The Toronto trade described looks wonky.

  51. russ99 says:

    Again, you can’t look at the players now, you have to look at how their game could translate at the NHL level.

    People get way too caught up in comparables.

    And Bennett’s “self hoisting flop” doesn’t really factor in, it’s if he can get big and strong enough to play that same kind of game in the NHL – and still retain his offense. IMO, that’s too much of an if to project outward. Even RNH is having trouble with that and he’s miles above Bennett.

    Chasing Toews is just as bad as chasing Lukic. Finding either kind is like finding a needle in a haystack.

    Ekblad or Draisaitl would be fine with me.

  52. gcw_rocks says:

    If I were the oilers I would be calling around to see how dedicated Bennett is to spending time in the gym. Building his upper body strength will be critical for Bennett’s success. If he is not a gym guy, that would add to the risk in picking him.

  53. Racki says:

    jake70:
    Well, good to see some daylight here in Moncton. Had our “Mayerthorpe” last night.Man.Slept an hour – my house just outside the triangle they are looking. RIP mounties.

    That’s crazy. Stay safe. I can’t believe someone’s stepped out to snap pictures of this nut job

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca