Jason Gregor has an interview with Scott Howson over at Oilers Nation today, fascinating read. Jason asked Howson some great questions, and the answers were interesting and provocative. In looking at the big ‘ol NFL draft value table (in Jason’s piece), I wondered why don’t we start the process with a simple queston: what should we expect from each draft selection this weekend? Isn’t that a good place to start placing value? Below, I’ll name a player in the range of the pick, based on my lists this week. Let’s see if we can get this thing surrounded.
OILERS EXPECTATIONS BY PICK
- No. 3 overall: C Leon Draisaitl. We should expect a quality center for seven years and beyond. First line should be the goal, understanding that might be difficult with the Nuge also in the house. I don’t know the odds of this fellow becoming that player, but it has to be very high. A team drafting No. 3 overall and not getting a solid Top 6F would be worthy of dismissal, no?
- No. 91 overall: L Dexter Dancs—Sleeper power forward. I’ve chosen him because (offensively) he’s beyond Khaira and the BCJHL is an area Edmonton likes to draft from in recent years. How much should we expect from this player? Dillon Simpson, Linus Omark, Chris VandeVelde and Zack Stortini are some of the more interesting picks in this range. How many times would you have to pick in the 90s to get a top 9F or top 6D? I bet you it’s a lot. I bet you that Zack Stortini (257 games) is one of the more successful picks in this range.
- No. 111 overall: G Ville Husso—.923 save percentage in a good pro league. What are the odds this guy becomes a starting goalie in the NHL for five seasons? I bet it’s closer to zero than it is 20%. What are the odds that Husso plays 200 games?
- No. 130 overall: C Reid Duke—This is a guy who deserves a break. Good player, bad team. I think we’re at a point where a callup should be considered a victory, no?
- No. 137 overall: R Austin Poganski—Big throwback winger on his way to UND. About the same as Duke, I imagine.
- No. 153 overall: D Nelson Nogier—Big, mobile stay at home defender. Lesser chance, long long shot.
- No. 183 overall: G Vitek Vanecek—Good numbers, dominant at U-18s. Pissing in the wind.
Now, let’s add it all up. I think, based on years of watching NHL scouts gobble up all the talent by No. 100 overall we can expect:
- A quality NHL player who will enjoy a long career. I wrote expect Rucinsky a few weeks ago, and believe that to be in the range of reasonable. Rucinsky averaged 21-31-52 per 82 games and played 961 NHL games. That’s a good, good player, for a long time. If we pumped that up to 1,000 games, and 60 points per 82gp, would that be fair? Okay, that’s Miro Satan. We can expect Miro Satan. HELLUVA player.
- The rest of the group combined should produce an NHL GP total between Teemu Hartikainen (52) and JF Jacques (166).
- A reasonable expectation for this season is the 2008 draft: Eberle, Hartikainen and two cups of coffee.
I don’t have a chart, but we all have our brains and the knowledge that comes from watching scouts pick the carcass clean by the end of round three.