ARE THE BARONS DEVELOPING ENOUGH NHL TALENT?

This is Martin Marincin. He surprised many Oiler fans with a quick and effective transition into the NHL. The Edmonton Oilers need more Marincins and they need them in a quick hurry.

OILERS FARMHANDS IN EDMONTON 2013-14

  1. Mark Arcobello 41GP, 4-14-18
  2. Phil Larsen 30GP, 3-9-12
  3. Martin Marincin 44GP, 0-6-6
  4. Will Acton 30GP, 3-2-5
  5. Oscar Klefbom 17GP, 1-2-3
  6. Steve Pinizzotto 6GP, 0-2-2
  7. Taylor Fedun 4GP, 2-0-2
  8. Tyler Pitlick 10GP, 1-0-1
  9. Anton Lander 27GP, 0-1-1
  10. Roman Horak 2GP, 1-0-1
  11. Brad Hunt 3GP, 0-1-1
  12. Ryan Hamilton 2GP, 0-0-0
  13. Linus Omark 1GP, 0-0-0
  14. Richard Bachman 3GP, 3.02 .916

That’s a lot of man games (220 total games13.4% of the Oilers overall man games in 13-14). That compares to 49 games (and 5%) of man games in the shortened 2012-13 season:

  • Teemu Hartikainen 23, 1-2-3
  • Anton Lander 11, 0-1-1
  • Chris VandeVelde 11, 0-0-0
  • Yann Danis 3, 3.82 .881
  • Mark Arcobello 1, 0-0-0

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

A year ago, the ‘Hawks relied on their minor league system thusly (9.2% of total man games in 12-13):

  1. Brandon Saad 46, 10-17-27
  2. Jimmy Hayes 10, 1-3-4
  3. Jeremy Morin 3, 1-1-2
  4. Ben Smith 1, 1-0-1
  5. Brandon Bollig 25, 0-0-0
  6. Brandon Pirri 1, 0-0-0
  7. Ryan Stanton 1, 0-0-0
  8. Shawn Lalonde 1, 0-0-0

This was the short season, and the club graduated Saad and some other nice things. A few have been sent away (Hayes, Bollig, Pirri) and others are still hanging around and contributing. Here’s this year’s list of players who spent time in both Rockford and Chicago:

  1. Brandon Pirri 28GP, 6-5-11
  2. Jeremy Morin 24GP, 5-6-11
  3. Joakim Nordstrom 16GP, 1-2-3
  4. Mike Kostka 9GP, 2-1-3
  5. Teuvo Teravainen 3GP, 0-0-0
  6. Jimmy Hayes 2GP, 0-0-0
  7. Antti Raanta 25GP, 2.71 .897
  8. Kent Simpson 1GP, 6.00 .714

That’s 6.5% of the overall man games for Chicago this season, and it should be noted the ‘Hawks minor league system is producing more players than the team needs, so they dealt away Pirri, Hayes and others. Edmonton will get there someday, but right now they can’t entertain the idea of trading Martin Marincin because Oscar Klefbom is almost ready—they need both!

MINOR LEAGUERS EMERGING AS NHL PLAYERS

The ‘failure to launch’ for Oiler draft picks goes back a long while, and really with some notable exceptions (Jeff Petry, 49 AHL games before NHL) the entire century has been a disaster. Here are the prospects drafted by the Oilers since 2000 who have played more than 40 AHL games before establishing themselves as NHL players:

  • Brad Winchester, 2nd round 2000 and had a 390 game NHL career
  • Jarret Stoll, 2nd round 2002 and has played in 719 NHL games
  • Zack Stortini, 3rd round 2003 and has played in 257 NHL games
  • Kyle Brodziak, 7th round 2003 and has played in 548 NHL games
  • Devan Dubnyk, 1st round 2004 and has played in 173 NHL games
  • Jeff Petry, 2nd round 2006 and has played in 236 NHL games

Edmonton has a growing list of candidates who may be added to this list, including Martin Marincin, Oscar Klefbom, Tyler Pitlick and others. Add in men like Mark Arcobello, who were procured outside the draft, and Edmonton appears to be heading into more fertile times when it comes to their minors-to-majors development.

(Marincin photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved)

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27 Responses to "ARE THE BARONS DEVELOPING ENOUGH NHL TALENT?"

  1. D says:

    Turning a large ship takes a long time. This Oilers organization is slowly starting to point in the right direction.

  2. Philosophil says:

    you know its serious when LT says “Quick hurry”

    This may be the most unbalanced year of expectations on record – so much potential, maturing stars, guarded hope, yet negative focus on a gaping scab (does that exist?) at center, and question marks with Yak et al, all with the angst of false promise past and razor thin resilience looming in a powder keg called rebuild 2.0+.

    Quick hurry may be the mantra this year. ie try Arco or LD (as in Load) at C, but act in a quick hurry if it flops. Same at D, and frankly at G as well.

    Love the read fellas, keep it coming.

  3. Numenius says:

    D:
    Turning a large ship takes a long time.This Oilers organization is slowly starting to point in the right direction.

    I’d go with “righting” rather than “turning” the ship. Gets closer to the severity of the problem.

  4. gr8one says:

    I’d say that the same five year rule of thumb that we use to judge prospects should also apply to the team that’s responsible for developing those same players.

    Also, it’s tough to judge the Barons for poor choices made by upper managements decisions as to when these players are recalled. (ie:Lander).

    Having said all of that, I personally think the Barons are doing a fantastic job considering what they started with and we’re only in about year four since they were established. I feel pretty strongly that the Barons will become one of the strongest part of the organization. It’s the one thing Tambellini actually did right.

  5. Hammers says:

    I see this as a tell on the Pocklingtons later years & post Pocklington when K.Lowe had to beg other organizations to take Oiler players . Dubnyk is a prime example of a goalie who bounced around with other organizations for playing time . Looking back I realize the harm this did to the NHL team . Springfield & now Oklahoma have become a starting chance for draft picks . I must admit at the time I didn’t see the big picture but didn’t figure out WHY so many of our draft picks went by the wayside . In fact we also lost Claude Julien when the Hamilton dog & pony show existed . WHAT A WASTE .

  6. D says:

    Numenius: I’d go with “righting” rather than “turning” the ship. Gets closer to the severity of the problem.

    Major props to this!

  7. kinger_OIL says:

    LT – I am looking forward to the RE on the oil : save a huge jump in shooting percentage or goalies standing on head this team isn’t much different than last year. And they lost their 2 centre. Yes the middle is stronger but we are hoping for RNH to break out and for 4 level d’s to become shut down and maracin to do better then last year and unproven goalies to emerge as top flight. Good to hope but too many hopes and dreams in this oil pipe.

  8. theres oil in virginia says:

    kinger_OIL: And they lost their 2 centre.

    Ha. Yeah, that’s gonna hurt!

  9. Ice Sage says:

    kinger_OIL: LT – I am looking forward to the RE on the oil : save a huge jump in shooting percentage or goalies standing on head this team isn’t much different than last year. And they lost their 2 centre. Yes the middle is stronger but we are hoping for RNH to break out and for 4 level d’s to become shut down and maracin to do better then last year and unproven goalies to emerge as top flight. Good to hope but too many hopes and dreams in this oil pipe.

    No, if only a few of those things happen, this team will be better.

    There are synergies here that should lead to a winning culture. For (an opposite) example, last year young team got gutted by 1. slowly-rehabbing # 1 center, injured #2 center, underwhelming Russian D’s and the second coming of Andre Racicot, cue downward spiral and we’re all talking ‘next year’ by November.

    All areas of the Oiler game are improved this year, already. 10th / 14 in the toughest conference in sport. Book it?

    PS, LT – Paul Simon (+/- Garf) for RE’s, please, if only to whistle the ‘days of miracle and wonder’ optimism of Boy in the Bubble

  10. Ryan says:

    How many more years until our beloved Lowetide admits that SMB is mediocre at best?

    Meanwhile the rich keep getting richer.

  11. kinger_OIL says:

    Ice Sage,

    If the oil improve by 15 points which I bet is less then 25 percent chance based on previous history of all teams last 10 years they are still at least 10 points from playoffs. Run the numbers. By far the best way to predict next year results is to look at last year. That’s what the math tells you. This team is 2 years away from being a 90 point team in the most optimistic scenario. I bet less then 25 percent of teams that get less then 70 points improve to 90 points 2 years out. Unless standard deviation outlier this team is miles and miles away from playoffs let alone cup. Sad but math doesn’t lie.

  12. jp says:

    A tiny point, but if you included Saad for the Blackhawks, should you not also have included JSchultz for the Oilers? Both likely would never have seen the AHL if not for the lockout.

  13. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Numenius: I’d go with “righting” rather than “turning” the ship. Gets closer to the severity of the problem.

    How about “refloating” the boat, like they just did with the Costa Concordia. Mind you refloating the Good (?) Ship Oiler seems to be taking even longer.

  14. jp says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Ice Sage,

    If the oil improve by 15 points which I bet is less then 25 percent chance based on previous history of all teams last 10 years they are still at least 10 points from playoffs. Run the numbers. By far the best way to predict next year results is to look at last year. That’s what the math tells you. This team is 2 years away from being a 90 point team in the most optimistic scenario. I bet less then 25 percent of teams that get less then 70 points improve to 90 points 2 years out.Unless standard deviation outlier this team is miles and miles away from playoffs let alone cup. Sad but math doesn’t lie.

    You initially said this team “isn’t much different from last year”, not “it won’t make the playoffs”. Two very different things, and I haven’t seem many/any folks saying the Oilers are a lock for the playoffs. They clearly are not. They are almost certainly better than last year though. There’s a lot of focus on 2/3C, but I find it difficult to understand how anyone can argue this team isn’t at least somewhat better.

    Ice Sage is completely right, it would take very little for this team to be improve. It would take a lot of things breaking right to make the playoffs, but 10th/11th is very attainable. Honestly, even the things you list aren’t necessary for the team to be better. The goalies don’t need to stand on their heads, they just need to not tank. If Arcobello plays at a similar overall level to what he did last year the lost 2C has been replaced. The new D don’t need to become shutdown, they just need to do what they did before they signed. Marincin doesn’t need to be better, he just needs to be the same. Add in that Yak pretty much can’t possibly be worse and that two other top 9 wingers have been added, and it’s difficult to see how things aren’t better.

    Also, when “I bet” qualifies the numbers used in a statistical/mathematical analysis, then claiming that “math doesn’t lie” is a lie.

  15. Numenius says:

    Bruce McCurdy: How about “refloating” the boat, like they just did with the Costa Concordia. Mind you refloating the Good (?) Ship Oiler seems to be taking even longer.

    Yeah, the Costa Concordia is the kind of thing I had in mind. Maybe “salvaging” and then “refurbishing” gets the metaphor right?

  16. FastOil says:

    Turning a sunken ship takes a long time. MacT could have done it with proven C and D. It was that close, as in signing Grabo or Stastny and a couple of proven D, as in our favourites Hainsey and Gilbert.

    Maybe nobody would sign, maybe nobody tried enough. Only a few players away from not awful, perhaps playoffs.

  17. OilClog says:

    FastOil:
    Turning a sunken ship takes a long time. MacT could have done it with proven C and D. It was that close, as in signing Grabo or Stastny and a couple of proven D, as in our favourites Hainsey and Gilbert.

    Maybe nobody would sign, maybe nobody tried enough. Only a few players away from not awful, perhaps playoffs.

    Hainsy and Gilbert lead us to the glorious promise land!

    Grabbo would be nice, but when was his last playoff performance again? Would he sign here?

    Sign Stastny to the teams largest contract?

    Fayne, Percell, Pouliot, Nikitin.. You bums.

  18. Hammers says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Ice Sage,

    If the oil improve by 15 points which I bet is less then 25 percent chance based on previous history of all teams last 10 years they are still at least 10 points from playoffs. Run the numbers. By far the best way to predict next year results is to look at last year. That’s what the math tells you. This team is 2 years away from being a 90 point team in the most optimistic scenario. I bet less then 25 percent of teams that get less then 70 points improve to 90 points 2 years out.Unless standard deviation outlier this team is miles and miles away from playoffs let alone cup. Sad but math doesn’t lie.

    Check out Colorado last year .

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Perhaps the most famous 20th century epistemological metaphor actually involves a sinking ship rebuilt on the fly out at sea.

  20. jp says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Ice Sage,

    I bet less then 25 percent of teams that get less then 70 points improve to 90 points 2 years out.

    So, I’m really glad you mentioned this. Got me curious about how likely this actually is, so I “ran some numbers” and had a look at all the teams since the 2004 lockout to finish below 70 pts.

    This was 8 NHL seasons (2005-06 to (2012)-13). Excluding 2013-14 since we don’t know what the future holds, and using projected point totals for the most recent lockout season. 16 team seasons fit the criteria. 12 different teams made the list, with Colorado appearing 3 times, Edmonton and Tampa Bay 2 each.

    What was super surprising (to me at least) is that 7 of 16 teams (44%) reached 90 points in at least one of the 2 seasons following the sub 70 point campaign (and all 7 made the playoffs). Even more interesting, 6 of the 7 (38% of the total) did it the year immediately after the sub 70 point season. By far the most interesting thing though (imo), is that teams on this list account for 5 of the last 8 Stanley Cup winners. So of the 12 different teams who had at least one terrible season in the past 9 years, 3 of them (25%) have already won the cup, and 2 of them did it twice.

    I guess this is the good math. The flip side of course is that 9 of the 16 teams didn’t reach 90 points or make the playoffs in the following 2 years. This is also an obviously very small sample size, but my God, if this isn’t an encouraging set of numbers I don’t know what is.

  21. Hammers says:

    For me the one thing in sport is that at the beginning of the season anything can happen to YOUR team . Good or bad .That’s why fans stay fans , the hope , desire , dream that your team will be better . Makes no difference if your NY / Montreal /Calgary /Oilers or LA . . You can be on top with one way to go or on the bottom also with one way to go . . If you don’t hope or believe you may as well give up . For me this has been a new 25 year quest and we nearly got there once but I have always been an Oiler fan before they got into the NHL . Yes I saw the glory days right in that rink and I have seen the crap but I’m still a fan .Dream a little . We will be back .

  22. Deadman Waiting says:

    Ryan:
    How many more years until our beloved Lowetide admits that SMB is mediocre at best?

    Here’s the problem: if fate constantly hands you the first overall pick, it’s extremely hard to be more than mediocre. Taylor Hall was the pick of mediocrity. I know that’s a hard concept to understand, but it’s so true. Any other pick would have been worse than mediocre. Is that making part of the problem clear?

    Once you take our can’t-win first rounders off the table, it severely exacerbates the problem of small-sample size. It’s the number of players who make the grade that really defines your sample size. Until you’ve got ten players who make the grade, plus or minus one success (a change of one is always regarded as within sampling error) amounts to a +/- 10% difference in delivered goods, supposing that isn’t contaminated with other sampling errors.

    The final formula is delivered_goods / expected_goods. Error bars on delivered goods shine through the division.

    A first overall pick has three times the expected goods of a typical second round pick and six times that of even lower picks (off the top of my head from recent threads).

    High first round picks represent about half the expected goods from the entire MBS era. And we have to subtract those out, because they have an inherent mediocrity bias (since there is only a downside for getting it wrong, and no upside for getting it better than best).

    Furthermore, MBS is responsible to draft according to the GM’s team template. He might be arguing teuton and nail behind the scenes not to draft so many coke machines (drafting coke machines is only good on the Tour, where the one true coke machine, Jan Ulrich, is now retired).

    The tendency of the organization to swing at wild pitches seems to be on the wane. It will prove a lot easier to evaluate the scouting staff after eight years picking from the bottom half of the first round, though the project might seem far less pressing should that someday come to pass.

    One of the rewards for the organization performing badly is that it takes twice as long to achieve statistical significance on their present competence.

    No one ever said life was fair.

  23. Captain's Log says:

    JP:

    kinger_OIL:

    I bet less then 25 percent of teams that get less then 70 points improve to 90 points 2 years out.Unless standard deviation outlier this team is miles and miles away from playoffs let alone cup. Sad but math doesn’t lie.

    So, I’m really glad you mentioned this. Got me curious about how likely this actually is, so I “ran some numbers” and had a look at all the teams since the 2004 lockout to finish below 70 pts.

    This was 8 NHL seasons (2005-06 to (2012)-13). Excluding 2013-14 since we don’t know what the future holds, and using projected point totals for the most recent lockout season. 16 team seasons fit the criteria. 12 different teams made the list, with Colorado appearing 3 times, Edmonton and Tampa Bay 2 each.

    What was super surprising (to me at least) is that 7 of 16 teams (44%) reached 90 points in at least one of the 2 seasons following the sub 70 point campaign (and all 7 made the playoffs). Even more interesting, 6 of the 7 (38% of the total) did it the year immediately after the sub 70 point season. By far the most interesting thing though (imo), is that teams on this list account for 5 of the last 8 Stanley Cup winners. So of the 12 different teams who had at least one terrible season in the past 9 years, 3 of them (25%) have already won the cup, and 2 of them did it twice.

    Nice work there on the stats – very interesting stuff. Always love actually having a look at the numbers vs “I bet…”

    LT I wonder if you’ve considered that % of man-games benchmark with respect to poor teams. Poor teams who don’t have solid options for the bottom 6 or 5/6 D are more likely to plug and play minor leaguers that otherwise wouldn’t see the show. Poor teams are also more likely to deal veterans for draft picks – also increasing the GP for farmhands.

  24. russ99 says:

    Enough, yes. Different types, nope.

    And that has to do with drafting philosophy the last few years.

    Outside the first pick, the org has gone off track, drafting pretty much only puck moving defensemen and checking forwards – and yes, some of the latter have some skill but it remains to be seen if that translates at the NHL level, especially if they’re rushed into roles with defensive zone starts.

    At some point the lack of scoring wingers, playmaking centers and bigger defensive defensemen in the system will hurt us.

  25. mumbai max says:

    theres oil in virginia: Ha.Yeah, that’s gonna hurt!

    No, losing Gagner does not hurt. He was a MAJOR defensive liability. All options including Arco and Lander are better. Because he was our defacto 2C does not make losing him a negative. Addition by subtraction.

  26. G Money says:

    Deadman Waiting: arguing teuton and nail

    Ha! Love it! Clever bastard.

  27. G Money says:

    jp: Got me curious about how likely this actually is, so I “ran some numbers” and had a look at all the teams since the 2004 lockout to finish below 70 pts.

    Kudos to you for running the numbers!

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