BACK DRAFT

As we wind down our draft coverage (almost done, promise), I wanted to make note of a few quotes that have cropped up leading up to, during and after the draft. I think we can learn about the Oilers thought process by combining their words and actions.

  • Jim Matheson: Oilers’ GM Craig MacTavish has told the scouts to pick more talented guys later, rather than guys to slot into role positions as bangers on a third or fourth line, hoping for a home run or a ground-rule double in the later rounds. Like taking Greg Chase from the Calgary Hitmen in the seventh round last year; he’s going to the summer world junior team evaluation camp after doing a nice job in OKC as a junior call-up late in the AHL season. (Source)

In theory, we can verbalize this into MacT saying “no more damn Abney’s and no more tall tree’s Lou leaks he loves. Dammit people, we can get 6′s and 7′s and 9′s at the five and dime, let’s stretch out these late picks and draft Gernats and Chase’s.”

Fair?

Problem. I get the Greg Chase reference, not to toot our own horn here but we identified Chase BEFORE he was drafted (source) in 2013.

  • #51–C Greg Chase: Nice combination of skill and grit.

With due respect, there seems about 500 miles on foot from Greg Chase to Liam Coughlin, 150 from Chase to Vesel, 600 from Chase to Evan Campbell, 450 from Chase to Aidan Muir, and yes 200 from Chase to Kyle Platzer. I think there’s a friggin’ in the riggin’, and disconnect of the party line, a failure to communicate. It’s like that Seinfeld line at the car rental place. The Oilers can TAKE the reservation, but they can’t HOLD the reservation.

Which suggests to me that, at some level, the Oilers are still more ‘saw him good’ than ‘scouts identified these nine men, analytics confirms four of them, that’s our list, gents’ and maybe that’s too much to hope for at this point in time. I am unable to see the math that would recommend Liam Coughlin, and although there are things about Vesel that analytics (the ones I know) likes, I find it hard to believe the numbers couldn’t find bettermen.

coughlin1

Liam Coughlin

I’m completely aware of the limitations one has viewing numbers from their basement, and there may well be strong reason for the Oilers to select Coughlin over Kulda (as an example). I’d like to hear their reasoning.

LIKE WHO, SMARTASS?

I’m fully aware that scouts know more about this than me. I’m wondering though, if the Oilers are putting the right things in their equations. Example: I spoke to player agent Tom Lynn yesterday, and he expressed surprise about some of the players being chosen and their (older) age. He mentioned Money Ball, and said it looked like NHL teams were drafting older players because they had more track to look at when selecting the player (and then four more years, potentially, in college). I mentioned an AHL player (here) who had been drafted, a fairly rare item. He agreed the NHL is a moving target these days, including some eastern seaboard junior leagues that change with the wind and lack the consistency of the CHL and USHL.

The thing is, all of the analytics people I speak to discuss age as a positive for YOUNGER players. Even a few months advantage, like Sam Bennett to Leon Draisaitl, are offered up as a positive. Is this wrong? Have NHL teams discovered that older players, more on the resume, a more mature man, is the better bet? In a future post, I’ll look for examples but until then I’m skeptical. I’d like my team to go the other way, look for August 1996′s who are perhaps caught behind top-level talent. How far is this guy from this guy? Is the answer Liam Coughlin? We’ll find out. Or, as Tom Lynn suggested yesterday, am I asking the wrong question?

I want to know about this age thing. I also want insight into what they see in specific cases, like Coughlin over Dancs and the distance between Matteson Iacopelli and Tyler Vesel. I get that they wanted big skill in Coughlin, but what made him a similar prospect in value to Richard Nejezchleb? Did they consider Ryan Foss? What about Stephen Harper? Jake Marchment?

dancs

Answer: Probably, but the value wasn’t enough for them to sacrifice extra evaluation time.

  • Stu MacGregor: “We also took players entering college which gives us a longer look at them, two to four years before you have to decide whether to sign them or not.”

I can’t help but think an August 1996 kid is going to be a better bet than Liam Coughlin. Am I wrong here? I’d love to have a one hour chat with Stu MacGregor about this, suspect the Oilers (and some other NHL teams) are going the wrong way on this thing. The Kings drafted Spencer Watson No. 209. I bet he plays more in the NHL than a lot of these ‘draft and college’ kids. In the meantime, NHL teams get miles and miles of time to watch these men emerge or not, and that makes sense in one way for sure. I just don’t think it’s a good prospect bet. Jmo.

bouchard232

  • Stu MacGregor on passing on Oil Kings Mayo, Irving, Kulda and Baddock: “Just circumstances. We were making sure we had some goaltending prospects.” 

I’ve thought about this quote a lot since reading it, and there’s only one way to make sense of it. The Oilers evaluation of these men was such that they were deemed of less value than the prospects named at their turn. Call me crazy, but if the Oilers wanted Mayo and Kulda they could have called out their names in later rounds. There’s no mystery here, the evaluation process found them wanting.  That’s my take, anyway.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Friday edition! Fluid show, TSN 1260 at 10 this morning. Steve Lansky from Loudmouth Sports, Eric Rodgers to discuss the Oklahoma City Barons and Dean Millard to chat about the British Open and the Eskimos/Bombers. I’ve extended a couple of other invites, so there’ll likely be an addition or two as the morning rolls.

See you on the radio! @Lowetide_ on twitter, 10-1260 text.

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53 Responses to "BACK DRAFT"

  1. zatch says:

    In defence of the AHL player, it was Nathan Walker, the Aussie, who was brought over to play undrafted in Hershey by the caps. It isn’t done because you’re risking time and money spent developing a player being drafted by another team.

    I believe, as much fun as it is, the draft does more to strangle non-traditional hockey than pretty much anything else out there.

  2. Hammers says:

    LT you say at the end they found them wanting . Isn’t that what there supposed to do , look at kids and then rate them . Kulda is a great example as he played his best hockey during the Kings cup run . The scouts must have decided it was an anomaly and he would settle back to what they saw all year . If we say we trust Mcgregor & his troops we must wait maybe as long as 5 years .I feel way more comfortable with our amateur scouts than the pro scouts .

  3. Numenius says:

    Sure hope the Oilers scouting department and management read this post and think about it long and hard.

    Maybe they have good responses, but if not, hopefully they have the humility to recognize it and do something about it.

    One wonders how “Sham Sharron” would do against the Oilers drafting record.
    http://canucksarmy.com/2014/5/20/we-think-the-vancouver-canucks-may-have-a-scouting-problem

  4. Woodguy says:

    Stu MacGregor: “We also took players entering college which gives us a longer look at them, two to four years before you have to decide whether to sign them or not.”

    That’s the key quote I think.

    The 50 man during v4.0′s time as GM was clogged with marginal CHLers who had to be signed within 2 years or lose their rights.

    MacT has cleaned up the 50 man so they can go on college UFA sprees if they want in April now, or take on a few extra contracts in trade if that helps get a deal done.

    I understand it.

    A marginal 18 year old is probably going to be a marginal 20 year old and you are making a big decision (sign or not sign) with miles of road ahead.

    Take the CHLers in the later rounds if they are true home run swings (Chase), but leave 4-6 for players on their way to college so they have time, org has time and the 50 man and AHL isn’t plugged with mediocrity.

    Now, Keven Bouchard taken in the 7th flies in the face of this unless they think “in two years its easier to make a call on a tall tree goalie”

  5. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide:

    I have zero idea wtf you’re trying to talk about here.

    The reality is, Khaira+Moroz ARE the oilers future crashers and bangers.

    Nice try.

  6. book¡je says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree, this is all about a little room to mine on the 50 contract limit.

  7. Jordan says:

    Stu MacGregor on passing on Oil Kings Mayo, Irving, Kulda and Baddock: “Just circumstances. We were making sure we had some goaltending prospects.”

    Drafting goaltenders is like voodoo. We know this. We know that where a goalie is drafted has almost no relation to their projected NHL success because of how poor a correlation there is between how good a goalie is in junior and how effective they may be in 3-7 years at the NHL level.

    Now, I have less of an issue with drafting goalies in the mid to late rounds like they did this year, but I believe those picks would be better used drafting any one of those Oil Kings. They are picks with upside, and the potential to be something useful. There are dozens of ECHL & AHL goalies available each year who may yet develop, and have more experience at a given level than what the Oilers brought in this year.

    If you know that you can trade a 3rd rounder for an unproven NHL starter why would you spend any picks on goalies in the draft? Wouldn’t it make more sense to draft players with more projected upside, and bring in filler goalies until you get to the NHL level?

    I’m sure that there are a lot of hockey people who will disagree with me here, and that’s fine, but if asset management is a part of being a GM, you’d have to really look at where the value is of goalie prospects, development, and scouting, because right now, I don’t see it. Maybe it’s just because I’m seeing this through the Oilers’ goalie drafting and development record?

  8. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    LT you say at the end they found them wanting . Isn’t that what there supposed to do , look at kids and then rate them . Kulda is a great example as he played his best hockey during the Kings cup run. The scouts must have decided it was an anomaly and he would settle back to what they saw all year . If we say we trust Mcgregor & his troops we must wait maybe as long as 5 years .I feel way more comfortable with our amateur scouts than the pro scouts .

    I do too, and of course you want them to make an evaluation. Earlier, I was reading more into the quote than was there. This was (imo) MacGregor saying something aside from “we didn’t feel these players had NHL potential beyond the players we chose.”

  9. Henry says:

    Some of MacT’s approach regarding college bound players may simply be the good record the Oilers have had with guys coming out of the NCAA at 20-22. Horcoff (drafted in the 4th round) played very little in the A before becoming a fourth line NHLer. Tom Gilbert (a 3rd rounder) required one season in the A, Petry about the same. Cogliano was ready, sort of, at 20 from Michigan. Arcobello…

    Nash is the only significant miss I can see. Wonder what the team thinks of McCarron and Lalegggia at this point.

  10. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Lowetide:

    I have zero idea wtf you’re trying to talk about here.

    The reality is, Khaira+Moroz ARE the oilers future crashers and bangers.

    Nice try.

    There’s nothing to try, facts be facts. Matheson wrote the words, I read them a certain way. Suspect it didn’t match your agenda, but sometimes even Fridays over a challenge.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Henry:
    Some of MacT’s approach regarding college bound players may simply be the good record the Oilers have had with guys coming out of the NCAA at 20-22.Horcoff (drafted in the 4th round) played very little in the A before becoming a fourth line NHLer.Tom Gilbert (a 3rd rounder) required one season in the A, Petry about the same.Cogliano was ready, sort of, at 20 from Michigan.Arcobello…

    Nash is the only significant miss I can see.Wonder what the team thinks of McCarron and Lalegggia at this point.

    Pisani is also a great comp for this group, although I saw him in St. Albert and he was a helluva player too.

  12. supernova says:

    The desire to draft players that give them longer to make a decision is very curious to me.

    Do they not trust their development ?
    Do they not trust their scouts?
    Do they feel like their system is chalk full of talent?

    I feel I could adequately defend stu and the scouts drafting based on a number of items like lack of talent in the bigs, no funds by EIG for a farm team, walkabouts early on by Stu’s predecessors.

    But I am mystified by this last draft after their 2 nd pick.

    In the end we couldn’t releastically expect many NHL games prior to the draft, my expectation after the picks is anything after the big swede is at bare minimum.

  13. delooper says:

    IMO it makes sense. If a player has enough obvious talent to be NHL ready, the younger player with the comparable talent would be the better bargain than the older player.

    But for players closer to the margins of an NHL career, you’ll have an easier time coming to a conclusion on an older player than a younger player.

  14. G Money says:

    hunter1909: The reality is, Khaira+Moroz ARE the oilers future crashers and bangers.

    That’s funny, I can understand LT, but I have no idea what you’re on about.

    The point of drafting skill and size (not just size) late is that in the typical case you get nothing, in the median hoped for case you get your crashers and bangers, and in the best case you win a lottery and one of those late picks turns into Zetterberg. That’s exactly what you get with Khaira, an early look at the middle case, and generally the only issue with Moroz is that it was a mild walkabout being perhaps a round early.

    On a slightly off-topic note, but in line with recent discussions on optimism for next year: the Eskies seem to be showing what the addition of a handful of better players together with vastly improved defensive coaching can do…

  15. Jordan says:

    delooper:
    But for players closer to the margins of an NHL career, you’ll have an easier time coming to a conclusion on an older player than a younger player.

    Who the hell cares if it’s easy to make a decision on them? When the objective is to draft and develop as many high-quality NHL-caliber players as you can, because they will either fill your roster, or be trade chips to fill out your roster, get the best damn players you can.

    There are a lot of warning signs that the Oilers didn’t get the best players they could have. The numbers and stats we have access to certainly support this. This is a very concerning development for Oilers fans.

    Best of luck in your research LT et. all. I’m hopeful there’s a more reasonable explanation than “The Oilers shit the bed after two picks”

  16. Hammers says:

    Woodguy is so right as related to the 50 man limit . A lot of Tambos problems revolved around not making decisions on borderline players . McT doesn’t have that problem and as pointed out a few college type picks gives time to the team . I’m sure that impacts some of there picks & decisions .Thanks for the reminder Woodguy .

  17. thejonrmcleod says:

    LT: Have you tried to get Stu on your radio show?

  18. Lowetide says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    LT: Have you tried to get Stu on your radio show?

    I have requested Stu MacGregor, Oilers have informed me they make their people available to other TSN 1260 shows and are satisfied with the relationship. I’ll keep trying, though.

  19. John Chambers says:

    Kulikov’s agent just got him a sweet deal.

    I bet around May of 2017 Rom will be advocating for a 6 x $6M when he’s about to graduate to UFA status.

  20. Bank Shot says:

    The thing that gets me is that the Oilers aren’t even taking guys that are killing their leagues with their overage picks.

    I could understand if they drafted a 20 year old Tyler Bozak who put up around 2 points a game in the BCHL, but they are taking older players that aren’t coming close to dominating the junior leagues in which they are the oldest players.

    I really don’t undertand it either Lowetide.

    I

  21. bry_oil says:

    Numenius,

    They also did an article for the drafting of all 30 teams if you want to take a look it can be found here
    http://canucksarmy.com/2014/6/26/sham-sharron-takes-over-all-30-draft-tables

  22. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: I have requested Stu MacGregor, Oilers have informed me they make their people available to other TSN 1260 shows and are satisfied with the relationship. I’ll keep trying, though.

    They’re probably worried that RE alter ego jerk will show up and start lobbing fastball questions high and inside.

    That or they’re afraid you and Stu will just lock the doors and talk about old-timey WHL hockey for six hours on air.

  23. Deadman Waiting says:

    Clearly MacT is trying to alleviate the problem where the over-ripening process involves precious picks languishing in Pine Barrens. Someone needs to do a historical analysis of Detroit’s AHL affiliates in terms of the age of arrival and playing time profile of the prospects that graduate through their system.

    We talk about over-ripening as if it’s a six lane highway with rest stops at every bend. How does (did) Detroit go about finding the necessary playing time to pump through so many successes? Or do they have some miraculous minor league coaching technique where many of their overripers paid their dues in Pine Barrens earning their right to merely step on the ice?

    Oklahoma needs to function as a finishing school, not a greenhouse. I don’t see the upside of barrel-aging our iffy tweeners at the end of a long plank.

  24. russ99 says:

    Kind of odd when the organization picks up Moroz early and also passes on Kulda, etc. late using the same Oil Kings-gleaned inside information, yet gets stick for both.

  25. Numenius says:

    bry_oil:
    Numenius,

    They also did an article for the drafting of all 30 teams if you want to take a look it can be found here
    http://canucksarmy.com/2014/6/26/sham-sharron-takes-over-all-30-draft-tables

    I hadn’t noticed that, thanks.

    The Oilers fail, according to them, but when I looked closely, it wasn’t as bad as I thought.

    There is also a bias for Sham in the methodology, since he doesn’t take D’s or G’s (unless the D’s score a lot). They could adjust for this by leaving the actual D or G the team picked there and only letting Sham change the F picks. This would give a much more accurate picture of the value of drafting based on points.

  26. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Something tells me if Dancs/Watson/Kulda/Mayo were passed over as many times as they were/were not taken at all, maybe they weren’t as good of prospects as you make them out to be in your head.

    I’m inclined to agree with the experts picks, not reading up on them on the internet (where Teuberts are compared to Webers)

  27. Yak2 says:

    Honestly, LT

    You’re the best Oilers blogger because you talk about a range of topic and the only one that really goes in depth on the prospects, which I like. Continue to do so.

  28. v4ance says:

    The mindset behind this draft strategy seems to be an extenson of “risk-adverse” thinking. With older players(18,19), you have more information and can project their potential better than 17 year olds.

    Using your analogy, the scouts settle for singles hitters who can fit in the 7, 8 and 9 slots in the batting lineup. They aren’t “can’t miss” prospects but they’re not “boom or bust” on the risk-reward scale.

    Maybe best solution is a mix? Take a few homerun swings but also sprinkle in a few of the “draft and follow” overagers?

  29. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    Kulikov’s agent just got him a sweet deal.

    I bet around May of 2017 Rom will be advocating for a 6 x $6M when he’s about to graduate to UFA status.

    Kulikov will already is getting $6 million for one UFA year, if one assigns $3.5 for each of the two RFA years. (His contract is for 2 RFA years and 1 UFA year)

    So Petry can forget about five somethings, and start the bidding for his services at 4 x $6 million. MacT made a mistake not to offer 4 x $5 million this summer.

  30. Lowetide says:

    russ99:
    Kind of odd when the organization picks up Moroz early and also passes on Kulda, etc. late using the same Oil Kings-gleaned inside information, yet gets stick for both.

    I’m not giving them the stick for either. I’m perfectly aware of real and reasonable reasons for all of these guys being passed over, and accept them as legit. Maybe one guy has bad work habits, another likes the ladies, and still another rode cherry minutes. I’m absolutely not arguing the Oilers went to the draft and pulled names out of their ass.

    I am wondering about their methodology in advanced stats, and perhaps more to the point, how they’re applying it when the rubber hits the road.

  31. bendelson says:

    godot10: So Petry can forget about five somethings, and start the bidding for his services at 4 x $6 million. MacT made a mistake not to offer 4 x $5 million this summer.

    Yes he likely did. Petry is going to have to blow them away with his play right out of the gate to get an offer anywhere near the 6′s from MacT mid-season this year or else he is nothing more than trade bait for prospects/draft picks at the deadline. Ouch.

    Is Petry worth more right now or at the deadline? (let’s assume he is ‘the same’ as last year as a player).

  32. Jordan says:

    bendelson: Is Petry worth more right now or at the deadline?(let’s assume he is ‘the same’ as last year as a player).

    Depends on play and injury. Petry’s still fairly new to the NHL and his role at this level is not a sure thing – another good 50 games will do a lot to cement him as an NHLer who can play tough comp in the top 4, which is ridiculously valuable at the trade deadline – especially on a value contract like his.

    If Petry isn’t in the long term plans, the best thing the Oilers could do was minimize his cost this season so he can be traded to as many contenders with some cap space as possible. The question is what will he get the Oilers back. Could he be worth a 1st or 2nd in 2015 at the deadline? I’d think that’s a pretty decent return for him – maybe more if he agrees to re-sign?

    But if he gets injured, he’s worth nothing. Risk-reward?

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Draft and college” is a great line. I’m sure to steal it at some point.

    This echoes a lot of my thinking here:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/06/betwixt-success-avoidance-strategy/

    I’m still confused by the draft. I’ve warmed to Vesel… but it sure would have been nice to see him alongside one of my choice CHL forwards.

    ———–
    That Kulikov deal is interesting. I wonder if there will be talk about how he is still available now…

    Tallon spent all year talking the player out of Florida.

    At any rate, I simply don’t get the idea of not going long term on proven quantities like Kulikov or Petry. Buy those UFA years.

  34. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    New piece today on the Chicago Model and the Oilers’ chatter around trying to emulate it.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/07/the-chicago-model/

  35. rickithebear says:

    Oilers top 9:
    2 yr point rank in brackets: years before decision
    Hall(6) 6yr
    Eberle (25) 5yr
    Perron (65) 2yr
    RNH (69) 7yr
    Purcell (74) 2YR
    —————————–2nd line
    pouliot (160) 5yr
    Yak (163) 1yr + bridge
    ——————————3rd line
    Gordon (231) 2yr

    top( defenition
    1st/2nd/3rd questions
    5-2-0 (? Arco: 3C) Draisatl; Yakimov
    ANA 2-4-3
    LAK 3-3-3
    SJS 4-1-2 (hertle)
    PHX 2-3-5
    VCR 3-1-5 (horvat)
    CGY 1-4-3 (Gaudreau; Bennett; Ganlund)

    STL 4-3-1 (lehtora)
    CHI 5-2-2
    DAl 2-3-4
    MIN 4-3-1 (huala)
    COL 5-3-1
    WPG 3-3-3
    NSH 2-5-2

    i like our forwrd production versus the other west teams 1st/2nd/3rd combos.

    We need 3C
    Draisatl; Yakimov
    4RW
    Lander; Khaira.

    2 years from know we have to decide on
    2LW
    2RW
    SLepyshev; Moroz; Chase
    4C
    Khaira; Lander

    3 years
    4LW
    3RW

    We can age Prospects to this point

  36. commonfan14 says:

    godot10: So Petry can forget about five somethings, and start the bidding for his services at 4 x $6 million.

    He can try that, but I don’t know.

    I just don’t think we’ve reached the point yet where any GM is going to shell out a $6 million+ cap hit for a D-man who 95% of casual fans have never heard of and who has never put up more than 25 points.

  37. supernova says:

    rickithebear,

    rickithebear:
    Oilers top 9:
    2 yr point rank in brackets: years before decision
    Hall(6) 6yr
    Eberle (25) 5yr
    Perron (65) 2yr
    RNH (69) 7yr
    Purcell (74) 2YR
    —————————–2ndline
    pouliot (160) 5yr
    Yak (163) 1yr + bridge
    ——————————3rd line
    Gordon (231)2yr

    top( defenition
    1st/2nd/3rd questions
    5-2-0 (? Arco: 3C) Draisatl; Yakimov
    ANA 2-4-3
    LAK 3-3-3
    SJS 4-1-2 (hertle)
    PHX 2-3-5
    VCR 3-1-5 (horvat)
    CGY1-4-3 (Gaudreau; Bennett; Ganlund)

    STL 4-3-1 (lehtora)
    CHI 5-2-2
    DAl 2-3-4
    MIN 4-3-1 (huala)
    COL 5-3-1
    WPG 3-3-3
    NSH2-5-2

    i like our forwrd production versus the other west teams 1st/2nd/3rd combos.

    We need 3C
    Draisatl; Yakimov
    4RW
    Lander; Khaira.

    2 years from know we have to decide on
    2LW
    2RW
    SLepyshev; Moroz; Chase
    4C
    Khaira; Lander

    3 years
    4LW
    3RW

    We can age Prospects to this point

    I agree with part of your statement.

    Question though shouldn’t we be filling it over full now though not in 2 years?

  38. Woodguy says:

    supernova:
    The desire to draft players that give them longer to make a decision is very curious to me.

    Do they not trust their development ?
    Do they not trust their scouts?
    Do they feel like their system is chalk full of talent?

    I feel I could adequately defend stu and the scouts drafting based on a number of items like lack of talent in the bigs, no funds by EIG for a farm team, walkabouts early on by Stu’s predecessors.

    But I am mystified by this last draft after their 2 nd pick.

    In the end we couldn’t releastically expect many NHL games prior to the draft, my expectation after the picks is anything after the big swede is at bare minimum.

    Given that this model seems to be SOP for many NHL teams, those are questions that would not just be asked of the Oilers.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot:
    The thing that gets me is that the Oilers aren’t even taking guys that are killing their leagues with their overage picks.

    I could understand if they drafted a 20 year old Tyler Bozak who put up around 2 points a game in the BCHL, but they are taking older players that aren’t coming close to dominating the junior leagues in which they are the oldest players.

    I really don’t undertand it either Lowetide.

    I

    This year was brutally weak in later rounds.

    I think they left some value on the table, but not a pile.

    Other teams were drafting those guys too, its not unique to the Oilers this year and shouldn’t be viewed like that.

    The overagers who were killing their league went as high as the 2nd and 3rd round this year (I think, will double check)

    Those guys usually start in the 4th or 5th.

    Weak year.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: This year was brutally weak in later rounds.

    I think they left some value on the table, but not a pile.

    Other teams were drafting those guys too, its not unique to the Oilers this year and shouldn’t be viewed like that.

    The overagers who were killing their league went as high as the2nd and 3rd round this year (I think, will double check)

    Those guys usually start in the 4th or 5th.

    Weak year.

    I knew it was going to be wonky the moment Washington dealt up for a long shot goalie early in the second round. Suspect we’ll be talking about the 2013 draft and its production for far longer than the 2014 edition.

    That said, and I’m sure you’d agree, Edmonton was damn lucky to get the No. 3 overall pick. Leon looks like a tremendous prospect by the numbers.

  41. russ99 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Fantastic article.

    Would love to see a second/third line of Pouliot – Gordon – Purcell get that treatment and push everyone else.

    But part of the reason the Hawks are so good with that system is that is their defense (and forwards) are fantastic at clearing the puck. They don’t get stuck in the D-zone very often. Look at what they did in the Kings series vs. bigger players who excel at board/corners play.

  42. speeds says:

    Woodguy,

    They left value on the table IMO. Yes, it’s fair to say that no matter who they picked past 3OV, that player is not particularly likely to become a fully contributing NHLer. However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be doing your utmost to pick the best possible prospects. I’m sure in EDM’s mind a guy like Coughlin was the BPA at the time of selection – I am not as convinced, but it certainly wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong.

  43. Lowetide says:

    On today’s Lowdown, we discussed the BCJHL versus the AJHL in terms of quality. It was an interesting discussion, with a couple of former BCJHL players checking in via text. One of them played both AJ and BC and suggested the BCJHL is a much stronger league.

    I didn’t know that to be the case, it was interesting.

  44. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Woodguy,

    They left value on the table IMO.Yes, it’s fair to say that no matter who they picked past 3OV is not that likely to become a fully contributing NHLer.However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be doing your utmost to pick the best possible prospects.I’m sure in EDM’s mind a guy like Coughlin was the BPA at the time of selection – I am not as convinced, but it certainly wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong.

    Did you do a list this year, speeds? I looked for it, but couldn’t find.

  45. Bruce McCurdy says:

    no more tall tree’s Lou leaks he loves

    Hey LT, did you borrow your daughter’s mobile device to write this post, or what?

  46. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    no more tall tree’s Lou leaks he loves

    Hey LT, did you borrow your daughter’s mobile device to write this post, or what?

    I’m still mad about Hesketh, and sometimes type quickly when discussing.

  47. speeds says:

    Lowetide,

    I did not, not formally.

  48. Hammers says:

    russ99:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Fantastic article.

    Would love to see a second/third line of Pouliot – Gordon – Purcell get that treatment and push everyone else.

    But part of the reason the Hawks are so good with that system is that is their defense (and forwards)are fantastic at clearing the puck. They don’t get stuck in the D-zone very often. Look at what they did in the Kings series vs. bigger players who excel at board/corners play.

    Actually if no “C” is traded for this may very well be our 2nd line with Arco or Leon,Yak & Perron the soft minute 3rd . That would leave Arco if Leon makes it with Hendrick & Lander . That Gordon line could be tough to play against and I like your thinking .

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: I’m still mad about Hesketh, and sometimes type quickly when discussing.

    “sometimes typo quickly”?

  50. nycoil says:

    LT, I would disagree with your last premise that “there’s only one way to look at it.”

    “Just circumstances. We were making sure we had some goaltending prospects.”

    Recall from oilers.nhl.com:

    MacGregor says the scouts were the ones to convince Oilers General Manager Craig MacTavish to pull the trigger on the goalies.

    “I had to fight with him to draft a goaltender. We just needed to add something. These guys have some potential we feel and if we can do it right and they can develop well we feel we have an opportunity to have some more depth.”

    I would hypothesize it is equally possible Stu wanted to draft for need (goaltending) and convinced MacTavish to take the goalies instead of position players (which may or may not have been the Oil Kings vs the goalies–they may have had other position players as BPA). It is possible, in my opinion, that the Oilers still use a hybrid model where they draft BPA early, but still draft for need from the mid rounds on. Now the focus may have shifted from Tambo (size) to MacT (skill), but from Stu’s own words he had to convince MacTavish to draft the goaltenders.

    My personal opinion is that I do not like this turn of events because goalies are voodoo, but I wonder if it raises the bigger question of draft philosophy in later rounds: BPA or need (I think many here will be divided on this matter). I am not saying there is a right or wrong answer on that one. I’m also glad MacGregor goes to bat for what he believes in; I would throw in the major caveat that I hope he is pitching the quality of the player, and not just the need to take anyone at a certain position because of the lack of depth in the system (thanks in part to many prior failed G picks, by the way).

    Last but not least, I have not been in the least bit convinced Stu knows what he is doing with goaltenders the way he does with defensemen and the occasional forward. Name one goaltending prospect he has drafted that has a good arrow since the draft.

  51. Lowetide says:

    NYC Oil: I’m not sure who evaluates the goalies, but suspect Oilers use goaltending coach as help. I’d be interested in knowing how they decide to draft a goalie in a specific spot.

    As for the disagreement, I’m saying if any of those Oil Kings had been evaluated as worthy, Oilers would have taken them with one of their final picks. They didn’t, but MacGregor can’t say (or shouldn’t) “even though our WHL team will be relying on them next season, we don’t like their NHL potential.”

    That was my point. I have no doubt MacGregor thought Bouchard was the best player on the board at No. 153, and have no quarrel with him selecting him beyond the fact that 2 G’s in a six player draft is a little unusual.

  52. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Okay, I hear what you are saying, but respectfully, I don’t see where that’s the only answer. I’m not doubting your word in any way, but based on the same quotes we are privy to, and those alone, I don’t see where Stu is saying he thought the goalies were the best pick on the board. Agree he couldn’t say the Oil Kings don’t have the best NHL potential when they will be playing next year for their WHL team; however, it wouldn’t be out of line for him to say “We took what we thought were the best players on the board.” Instead he made it a point to draw a line between himself and MacT: “I had to fight with him to draft a goaltender.” He had no compelling reason to distance himself from MacT publicly and make that comment unless it was just simply, the truth, no?

    So to me that leaves open the possibility that he didn’t think the Oil Kings or other position players weren’t good players worthy of those draft slots, but he wanted goalies specifically. Your theory could be right, might even be more likely, but what I am saying is, based on his own quotes, to me, there is some uncertainty about what he was trying to do here.

  53. rickithebear says:

    supernova:
    rickithebear,

    I agree with part of your statement.

    Question though shouldn’t we be filling it over full now though not in 2 years?

    we need to fill 3C
    draisatl
    or
    the 19 year old that scored like Ovechkin; Malkin; Tarasenko; semin with a 59% FO

    4RW
    with Lander or the 19 year old that shutdown the calder cup winners top line.

    2 years from now we decide on Perron; Purcell; Gordon

    when you look at the west hall 6th best point producer is #2 in west conference.
    Eberle #25 is 14th in WC
    Perron #35 WC
    RNH #37
    Purcell #40

    Teams with 4/ 5 1st line production forwards.
    EDM 5
    CHI 5
    COL 5
    MIN 4
    SJS 4
    STL 4
    teams with 7 1st & 2nd
    COL 8
    CHI 7
    EDM 7
    MIN 7
    STL 7
    These teams are the deepest1st and 2nd line point production in top 9.
    COL 5/8
    CHI 5/7
    EDM 5/7

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