CRAZY 210

It’s surprising to me, but there are a lot of misconceptions already out there about the Oilers most recent draft. First among them: that it was poor. Edmonton did well, especially if you consider value received for their second and third round selections (David Perron and Ben Scrivens). Allow me to answer a few questions that have popped up in the last week via twitter, email, dm and carrier pigeon:

The Oilers got one good player in the draft!

They actually selected three recognizable names in the draft. I had all three in my top 100 overall:

  • (3) C Leon Draisaitl—This is a fine hockey player. No one should be surprised if he goes No. 3 overall.
  • (77) D William Lagesson—Two-way defender, interesting bio.
  • (91) G Zachary Nagelvoort—College goalie with good to very good numbers.

The Oilers didn’t go walkabout until selection No. 130 overall. I honestly can’t get upset at a scouting director who picks a distant bell at that point in the draft, ESPECIALLY if it’s the same guy who once chose a massive flier at No. 71 (Troy Hesketh) in the past. This organization is doing a lot of good things at the draft, and I expect to see more analytics picks as we roll along here.

The Oilers passed on GREAT players!

It WAS a weird draft, no doubt. I sat on my couch (if that were a skill I’d be Gretzky) and waited for my favorites (no harm in saying them out loud now: Dexter Dancs, Chase De Leo, Andrew Mangiapane, Ilya Sorokin, Aaron Irving, Oscar Podanski). None arrived. Le sigh. I made a list of 137 players for this entry draft, and assumed there would be 10 or so left over. Final number? 17, including 11 in my top 100! That’s almost 10%!

  • (43) L Dexter DancsSleeper power forward.
  • (49) L Vladimir Tkachev—Small, skilled Russian with a ridiculous Q run.
  • (52) C Andrew Mangiapane—Extra Skater superstar, his EV/60 is 3.4 and that’s outstanding.
  • (62) L Kris Schmidli—Extra Skater star, 3.2/60 at evens. Swiss kid in Kelowna.
  • (73) C Luke Philp—Skill center can play a complementary role.
  • (78) D Gavin Bayreuther—A college man, he’s 20 and has some nice boxcars.
  • (80) D Riley Stadel—Crazy good puck handling defender. A draft sleeper.
  • (81) C Colby Cave—Undersized checker. Lots of those! He has some nice things.
  • (82) C Reid Gardner—Two-way center, improving.
  • (90)L Blake Clark—Big power forward with some skill.
  • (98) D Sebastian Aho—Undersized puck moving defender with some promise.
  • (112) L Darby Llewellyn—Two-way winger with skill and smarts.
  • (114) L Ryan Foss—Power forward frame, scored just okay.
  • (116) R Mitchel Slattery—Speedy winger with skill. Interesting prospect.
  • (127) R Karson Kuhlman—Two-way agitating winger with skill.
  • (133) G Edwin Minney—Big American goalie headed to Michigan State.
  • (137) G Blake Weyrick—American goalie on his way to college. I don’t see it.

I believe that’s right, please let me know of any errors. I like lots of these players, the Oilers liked their list better. I get paid to talk, and they get paid to scout. The same group that selected Greg Chase late late late in 2013 liked their group this year better than these young men. It was one weird draft. We wait.

 CRAIG BUTTON HAD IT RIGHT!

  • No. 4—Leon Draisaitl
  • No. 78—William Lagesson

Again, Lagesson appears well inside another top 100. That was a solid pick (Pronman had him higher than you think), the goalie in the third round was on the radar (Pronman: He’s technically sound, with some but not a lot of athleticism) and trending. Crazy 210, Button had two guys inside his top 60 who didn’t go in the draft.

THE ONES THAT GOT AWAY

If you follow the draft, there’s a favorite or two in there somewhere. If you like scorers or big defensemen or possession players, then your list probably elevates those kids and pushes others down. For years now I’ve punished stay at home defensemen and goaltenders, and elevated wide range of skill fellows. There were several players I thought would go quite high who were available at No. 91 and No. 111. There were MANY available at No. 130!

  • (37) L Spencer Watson—Pure goal scorer, he’s an impressive skill player. (No. 209 to LAK)
  • (42) D Dysin MayoA mobile, creative defenseman who can make plays. (No. 133 to ARI)
  • (46) C Chase De LeoSmall, fast, makes things happen. (No. 99 to WPG)
  • (59)  D Jacob MiddletonA nice range of skills, tough season but lots of potential. (No. 210 to LAK)
  • (60) R Ondrej Kase—Speedy winger with all kinds of skill. (No. 205 to ANA)

ABOUT LIAM AND TYLER AND KEVEN

I’ve been staring at this draft for a week, and I’ve come to a few conclusions. It’s ridiculous to get mad at a team for their selections at No. 130, No. 153 and No. 183, and that’s a fact. This was a weird draft, and I’m not certain why teams passed on Watson (although I have an idea) but they all did until the very end.

Let’s one a look (again) at the final selections for Edmonton.

  • No. 130—Liam Coughlin. On the board at that time were SEVEN players I have in my top 60 (not that I’m a draft guru but my list is handy). They were: Watson, Mayo, Dancs, De Leo, Tkachev, Andrew Mangiapane, Middleton and Kase. Brock Otten explains some of the issues with Watson here, and there were rumblings about De Leo playing sheltered minutes here and there in the draft murmur period. The Oilers would know Mayo like the back of their hand, and I’m not sure we can get angry about Middleton because he did have such a rough year. Kase? Interesting player, fell for reasons unknown to me. Coughlin? Kirk Luedeke: “Big kid, can skate.” I’ve also been told he’ll drive to the net and play in tough areas. He is a ‘saw him good’ selection and we’ll have to follow his career at Boston University. He’s 19, 6.03 and 185. Remember when Stu MacGregor talked about MacT’s draft emphasis? MacGregor: “Well with Mac, skill is really important to him. That’s something that he’s looked for. Obviously the other intangibles of character, hard work, quality of people and players who are passionate to play the game are important, but he really has a high regard for skill.I think Coughlin is a skill pick, chosen ahead of Watson for perceived weaknesses “away from the puck” by the OHL man, and yes maybe they can control his rights for longer without signing him.
  • No. 153—Tyler Vesel. The quote from MBS above really hits home with this guy. I wonder if the analytics were involved in this selection (Michael Parkatti will be my guest on the Lowdown this week, I’m never sure if he is going to answer these questions. He did in regard to Roy, I’ll want to know what his numbers said about Draisaitl and this fellow) because you can see real value here. His USHL numbers (49GP, 33-38-71) are monsters, even if he was 19 at the time. On his way to University of Nebraska at Omaha, so we should be able to get a good read on him. Stu MacGregor: “He’s a scorer. He had a tremendous year and he’ll be going to Nebraska-Omaha where Dean Blais is a competitive coach who develops players.” Small guy, he must not disappear like Watson does (according to reports).
  • No. 183—Keven Bouchard. I was fairly down on this pick at the time (two goalies in a six player draft is an interesting choice) but there are things to like as I read more about him. History tells us not to expect an NHL starter, but it also suggests this is as good a time as any to take a goaltender.

 

THE JASPER TRIP

  • Lois Lowe: I just got home from watching the Oilers O Camp practice in Jasper. Since I am not an evaluator of talent and because the practice isn’t over yet, I will keep my observations to the pithy kind.

    - the Teuton and Nurse are like kids in men’s bodies. They both have a lot more growing to do.
    - Brossoit is the most polished goalie in practice.
    - CJ Ludwig is hurt and not practicing with the team. He also has his father’s nose.
    - Arenas are colder than I remember (I haven’t been in a small one in over a decade).

    -I finally saw Khaira in person at the O camp and he’s a big body. If he manages to stick at C in the A or the big show, it bodes well for the Oilers. Yakimov is a ‘smaller’ 6’5″ and will probably play 15 or 20 pounds lighter than JarJar.

    -I posted yesterday about my observations, it’s just that I have nothing of value to add. CJ Ludwig is injured and has his father’s nose. It’s warm tonight and not likely to rain for longer than a few minutes. The bugs are pretty bad though so I imagine it won’t be super comfortable for them, there is almost no chance they’re having a fire. MacT and Howson were out for dinner last night and Eakins is skinnier than he looks. Also, the kids bike by my parents’ house to and from the arena, they all look very much like children.

    Lauren Stamile

     

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning as we get back to Mon-Fri 10-noon on TSN 1260. A really interesting group today. I’ll speak to Garrett Haggart about the Jasper Orientation camp (he attended the on-ice activities but not the camping trip), Guy Flaming (he’s afraid of bears) and Dean Millard (he lives in the woods amongst the bears).

In hour two, I’ll talk to Rob Soria from Oil Drop (he has bear pajama’s) and Dimitri Filipovic Canucks Army (who sounds like a Russian bear, so I’ll be very hard on him in questioning).

10-1260 on the text machine, @Lowetide_ on the twitter thingy. See you there!

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42 Responses to "CRAZY 210"

  1. Woodguy says:

    Good think Brzy wasn’t captain given that there are bears in the forest.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjzKJBUOoGc

  2. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Rather surprised we didn’t pick up Mayo. He’s an Oil King who put up points and played well on a Memorial Cup squad. Then again, maybe the Oilers knew something others don’t, given how they’re basically scouting him along with all the Oil Kings every game and practice.

  3. Jordan says:

    Woodguy:
    Good think Brzy wasn’t captain given that there are bears in the forest.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjzKJBUOoGc

    I dunno WG – could have been a great learning experience about facing your fears.

    Imagine – you’re alone in the woods. You hear something come out of the brush behind you. Would you rather it was:
    – A Bear?
    – Chuck Norris in a Bear suit?
    – Stan Weir riding a bear?
    – an angry drunk man with half a case of Big Bear?
    – Beorn?

  4. SinceTheWHADays says:

    You’d think this was a USA Government site with all the Bear baiting going on right now.

  5. Ducey says:

    I like those BC overage picks over someone like Kellen Jones. 5’9″ and 165 lbs is not going to play in the NHL unless he has unbelievable skill. A late round pick is not going to have that skill, so you are picking an average player in a small body.

    The odds of him making the show or being a useful trade chip are almost nil.

    Needless to say, I am glad they passed on Watson.

    Coughlin is from Southie in Boston. I wonder if he asks the opposing bench: “Do you like Apples?”

  6. lazerguidedmelody says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 1m

    #Oilers agree to terms with @PetryJ on a one-year contract.

  7. Bag of Pucks says:

    Interesting article that looks at the analytics vs gut debate from a different perspective.

    http://forty.co/metric-lust-how-well-can-you-really-measure-marketing-roi

    Marketing & advertising is an industry that’s been revolutionized by analytics & the Internet, to the extent, that those arguing to keep some semblance of Don Draper-esque gut instinct alive are almost seen as heretics.

    The chap in this article does raise some interesting points about the conundrum of trying to reduce complex human behaviors to easily parsed metrics.

    The debate rages on! : )

  8. Pouzar says:

    lazerguidedmelody: Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 1m #Oilers agree to terms with @PetryJ on a one-year contract.

    Wow…so he’s a UFA after this year?

  9. frjohnk says:

    lazerguidedmelody:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers1m

    #Oilers agree to terms with @PetryJ on a one-year contract.

    With him becoming a UFA at the end of the year, I doubt he is an oiler for the whole year.

  10. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: With him becoming a UFA at the end of the year, I doubt he is an oiler for the whole year.

    Which makes his value lower on the trade market. UGH

  11. Hammers says:

    Button hitting 2 dead on is a bit surprising . I like your line ” I get paid to talk they get paid to scout ” as it is much the same for many of us who make guesses . If McT can’t trust McGregor & crew why pay them . Like you always say we will find out in about 5 years . Leon better be 2 max .

  12. rich says:

    frjohnk: With him becoming a UFA at the end of the year, I doubt he is an oiler for the whole year.

    Agreed. If they can’t get him to sign a long-term agreement, he’s gone before the trade deadline. Not good.

  13. Hammers says:

    lazerguidedmelody: Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 1m #Oilers agree to terms with @PetryJ on a one-year contract.

    How much ??? Maybe they have a long term in mind or there still trading him with an exact dollar figure .

  14. 8p0intgame says:

    As far as I am concerned, the Oilers gave up a 1st AND 2nd round pick in the Perron deal. By that I mean, did we REALLY know what we had in Paajarvi? He could have been the mythical Pisani the Oilers have needed for ages for all we know. I don’t hate the trade. Just stating the Oilers’ second round pick fetched Perron doesn’t sit right with me. Perron cost a bit more than that!

    Also, the Oilers agree to terms with Jeff Petry on a one-year contract.

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This is like Woodguy Christmas

    http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

    Take away graph:

    There are three consequences to this discovery. One, as already discussed, that defensemen’s control of save percentage is minimal enough that adding on-ice save percentage effects do not add value in player evaluations other than looking at those likely to regress to the mean. Two, that a defender’s effect on shot metrics (specifically looking at both Corsi% and relCorsi%) is still the best way to approximate a player’s value. Three, that for the most part a goaltender owns their save percentage (once sample is large enough).

  16. lazerguidedmelody says:

    Hammers,

    No news on dollar yet… will report back

  17. regwald says:

    Stauffer: Petry’s one-year deal is for $3.075 million.

  18. Pouzar says:

    Sail on JP

  19. frjohnk says:

    $8.8 Million left to sign Schultz and get a center.

  20. Numenius says:

    regwald:
    Stauffer: Petry’s one-year deal is for $3.075 million.

    That’s a steal. Very easy contract to trade.

    I wish it had been longer and that he’d stick around.

  21. Hammers says:

    regwald: Stauffer: Petry’s one-year deal is for $3.075 million.

    That gives us $ 8.7 mill aprox so lets McT look for that 2nd line center . Make a trade now with Petry the center of it from us .wheel & deal McT . Maybe Petry + to Philly for Coburn + Saves them 1.5 and there going to have to save everything they can .

  22. Racki says:

    One year deal also makes it easy for Oilers to eat half that salary in a trade. I don’t want Petry gone but if they move him for someone like Boychuk, I’d be all over that.

  23. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Numenius,

    Thing is, trading that contract won’t have much value. Petry is going to be UFA next season, especially if MacT predictably spends close to $5m and multiple years on Schultz. Petry already has to be choked about getting less than Ference, Nikitin, and now likely Justin “what do I do without the puck?” Schultz.

  24. Racki says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Numenius,

    Thing is, trading that contract won’t have much value.Petry is going to be UFA next season, especially if MacT predictably spends close to $5m and multiple years on Schultz.Petry already has to be choked about getting less than Ference, Nikitin, and now likely Justin “what do I do without the puck?” Schultz.

    If he’s that choked, he wouldn’t have signed

  25. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Racki: If he’s that choked, he wouldn’t have signed

    What’s he going to do? No one is going to offer sheet him and he passed on arbitration, where he could likely have gotten more.

  26. su_dhillon says:

    This 1 year deal shows that they clearly value Schultz over Petry, The prospects of the new Schultz deal should scare the shit out of us all. Im guessing 5 x 5

  27. Racki says:

    Marcus Oilerius: What’s he going to do?No one is going to offer sheet him and he passed on arbitration, where he could likely have gotten more.

    Id say play more hardball than signing less than a week in to free agency. I think Nikitin is overpaid, but Petry strikes me as the patient type who knows big pay is around the corner since he’s going to be UFA next year. I’m sure he’s not ecstatic that these other names are making more, but 3M isn’t exactly pocket change.

  28. Truth says:

    That’s not good news on Petry. His value as an asset has went down immediately. A good young puck moving defenceman with promise is worth a lot when he’s under contract. When he is set to go UFA I think anyone acquiring him would be practically acquiring his negotiating rights and we all know what that’s worth. Peanuts.

    Bad move by MacT, I’d have been comfortable with the Oilers paying Petry substantially more and eat some of the contract if you have to in a trade. Understandable how he wants to turn UFA though, the Oilers just paid $4.4M/yr for 2 years plus a 5th round pick for a fringe NHL defenceman (last season). Petry would be dumb to do anything but take the shortest route to FA as possible, unless he gets paid like he was a UFA by Edm.

  29. theres oil in virginia says:

    I have to agree with LT. Traded at the deadline for 2nd rd pick. I don’t think there’s any way they’ll sign him past this year. The low-dollar amount from the current RFA year could have helped bring the overall cap hit down for a longer-term deal. Now, any future contract includes only UFA years, which of course are more expensive. It’s not impossible, but I think it’s much less likely.

  30. Numenius says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Numenius,

    Thing is, trading that contract won’t have much value.Petry is going to be UFA next season, especially if MacT predictably spends close to $5m and multiple years on Schultz.Petry already has to be choked about getting less than Ference, Nikitin, and now likely Justin “what do I do without the puck?” Schultz.

    You’re right. I should have said the amount gives good value in a trade but not the term.

    Hard to know what Petry was thinking in this deal. He may have no hard feelings and simply want to go where he wants as UFA. He seems like a classy guy. No reason to think otherwise.

  31. Pouzar says:

    We’d better hope he is open to an extension to any team that’s trading for him or his value is peanuts

  32. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Racki: Id say play more hardball than signing less than a week in to free agency. I think Nikitin is overpaid, but Petry strikes me as the patient type who knows big pay is around the corner since he’s going to be UFA next year. I’m sure he’s not ecstatic that these other names are making more, but 3M isn’t exactly pocket change.

    True, but that might make negotiations harder. I mean, if the Oilers offer was too low for too many years, Petry might have just thought “fuck it, I’ll sign for the year, do my best, and get a killer ufa contract where I’m wanted and Jim Matheson isn’t trying to trade me every day.”

  33. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar:
    We’d better hope he is open to an extension to any team that’s trading for him or his value is peanuts

    Not sure his value is peanuts. Many teams that could compete for the cup are close to or over the cap. ( Boston, Chicago, Tampa, Philly, Rangers and a few others ). Oilers have room to take on a higher contract. At 3M per year, Petry would have value to some of those teams.

  34. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Pouzar:
    We’d better hope he is open to an extension to any team that’s trading for him or his value is peanuts

    Peanuts is perhaps a bit harsh, because he’ll be an in-his-prime right shot defender at the trade deadline. There’s always room for healthy, strong, fast defencemen for playoff runs. But yeah, the pending UFA status means a late first round pick coming back, at best.

  35. Jordan says:

    I expect I’m in the minority, but I like this signing.

    This gives the Oilers a lot of flexibility, and gives Petry the option of cashing in next summer when the cap jumps.

    If the Oilers D prospects do progress a lot, they can move Jeff at the deadline, and transition the new hires in. Might even be able to get more than a 2nd next year, especially if he’s signed to an extension before the trade. If the D doesn’t progress in straight lines, they can extend him and keep him, and he’ll get paid in full.

  36. frjohnk says:

    Marcus Oilerius: True, but that might make negotiations harder.I mean, if the Oilers offer was too low for too many years, Petry might have just thought “fuck it, I’ll sign for the year, do my best, and get a killer ufa contract where I’m wanted and Jim Matheson isn’t trying to trade me every day.”

    I think Petry and his agent saw how much teams are willing to overpay UFA’s such as Orpik, Nikitin. If Petry has a good year and the salary cap goes up a fair bit, Petry will get over $ 5M easily next year as a UFA.

  37. Jon K says:

    Out of interest I decided to look at the number of players drafted out high school and their success. I went back to the 2000 draft and looked until the 5 year cut-off of the 2009 draft.

    I noticed a few things of interest:

    First, there has been an increasing number of players drafted from HS since 2000.
    In 2000 and 2001 there were, by a rough count, 3 HSers drafted.
    In 2002 and 2003, there were 6.
    In 2004 and 2005 there were 9.
    2006: 15
    2007: 11
    2008: 10
    2009: 13
    Total: 85 Please keep in mind that I may have missed some prospects in my counting.

    Second, the results weren’t as bad as I thought they would be when I started looking. Here are the players drafted from HS who have or project to play more than 100 NHL games.
    Matt Hendricks 2000 5th round (overage)
    Brian Boyle 2003 1st
    Cory Schneider 2004 1st (1 pick after Schremp)
    TJ Oshie 2005 1st
    Matt Niskanen 2005 1st
    Jonathan Quick 2005 3rd
    Keith Yandle 2005 4th
    Mark Fayne 2005 4th
    Colin Greening 2005 7th
    Ryan McDonagh 2007 1st
    Alex Killorn 2007 3rd
    Nick Bonino 2007 6th
    Jake Gardiner 2008 1st
    Cam Atkinson 6th
    Nick Leddy 2009 1st
    Chris Kreider 2009 1st
    Erik Haula 2009 7th

    Roughly, with 17 players and 85 picks, the hit rate on HS picks was a whopping 20%. I didn’t bother checking for how many of these players were overagers, but I do note that Hendricks was the only one that jumped out at me.

    Overall, I was pleasantly surprised to see that there is a growing trend of drafting players from HS, and a hit rate on picks higher than the comparable 5-10% for late round picks. Of course, this percentage is skewed by the very large number of these successful picks coming from the first round.

  38. rickithebear says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    This is like Woodguy Christmas

    http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

    Take away graph:

    So taking a fullset of data he concluded that the full set of data will move to the mean.

    I noticed he used the proper range.

    Now instead of looking at the whole.
    PDo’s # that telles shite.

    Lets look at the data as a whole group independent of name.

    look at varying standard of Goaltending
    broken in to groups from worst to best.

    Look at the box protection Dman broken into % of shots in side 25 ft.

    Break up the Dmen based on Comp faced.

    so we end up with

    A data set:
    Goalie Save%/Dman shot % inside box/ dman comp faced.

    Now look at this data
    for 5 years.

    we should be able to establish a baseline value for different sets of save% of goalies.

    What we should see;
    the same result for
    low shots inside 20 ft and 3rd comp
    and
    low shots inside 2oft and 2nd comp
    and
    low shots insude 20ft and 1st comp
    and
    high shots inside 20 ft and 3rd comp
    and
    high shots inside 20 ft and 2nd comp
    and
    high shots inside 20ft 3rd comp and high shots inside 20ft 1st comp.

    By everhting you guys say the affect will be the same.
    Cause goalie save % will be constent for all 6 data sets.

    cause do not affect GA.

    You guys are stating given all the data for a all Goalie Having x save%

    the results will be the same for all 6 d sets.

    Ok they are all the same!

    Cause a 20% shots from box (aulie) on 700 shots with a 17% success goalie

    (700 * .2) * 0.17 = 24 G

    will get the same resultst from

    A 30% shots from box on (kulikov) 700 shots with a 17% save % goalie.

    (700 * .3) * 0.17 = 36G

    All I am loking for is consistent Save% goalie over 3-4 years.

    and

    Consitent Box % Dmen over 3-4 years.

    Scrivens Yes

    Ference yes
    Petry yes
    Nikitin yes
    Fayne yes
    Aulie yes

    wow!

    So what you are really saying Is
    lower shots inside high % shot are good
    and
    Higher shots inside High % shot area Bad!

    Yup!

    But i also want a high missed % and block%
    which is all about the shooter. LOL.

  39. rickithebear says:

    Now use Dmen who have varying Shots from Distance.
    and establish sets by distance and X, Y location.

    Buy everyones position.
    All the s Dman with 29% shots and X distance and 17% overall goalie
    will have the same results as
    all the 29% and X+3 distance dmen with 17% overal golaies.

  40. Lloyd B. says:

    I’m thinking this one year deal is as much cap management as anything. A multi year deal with varying annual amounts would raise Average Annual Cap value. Or a multi year deal for a much higher cap hit. A little tricky this year.

    So sign a one year deal with no UFA years to keep cap lower this year. Sign a new multi year deal before the trade deadline for more $s as the cap goes up next year. Not only a silver fox but a sly one as well !.

  41. sliderule says:

    I think you can expect the same result from this group of overage picks from BCJL that the oil got from Bigos and Jones.
    Nada.

    The oiler amateur scouting is like until recently the oilers assistant coaches.Same old,.Same old.

    When you mostly the same scouts and a head scout living in boonies don’t expect much to change after we pick our first overalls.

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