DISTANT BELL

Plenty of chatter the last couple of days about prospects turning into NHL players this fall. We’ve seen articles on Jujhar Khaira and Bogdan Yakimov, two big centers who fans will see in orange and blue down the line. It’s fun to talk about Khaira jumping up this fall and grabbing a job, but is it realistic? Are we likely to see another “Anton Lander sure is fast” training camp?

No.

The Edmonton Oilers do have some openings—currently listed as No. 2 center and No. 4 RW—on their depth chart. Now, they can easily adjust that situation, moving Gordon to No. 3 center and going back to a more traditional look. The No. 4 C might be Anton Lander or Mark Arcobello in a case of that kind. It isn’t perfect, and the 2line would have to be a soft minutes group (with Leon at C), but with David Legwand off the market the situation is down to trade or solving the problem from within. Could that involve Taylor Hall at C?

No.

The solution is going to come via trade, a David Perron style mid-summer deal as we saw one year ago. Who could it be? I’ll guess Brayden Schenn and we’ll see how it goes. The articles on Khaira and Yakimov are probably two years early, that’s a guess maybe it’s four. Please understand, if either of these chaps win an NHL job this season, I’ll be wildly impressed. However, let us not forget the lessons of Anton Lander—pushing these kids up the depth chart too early is death. Surely the Oilers know this well. Are there any centers who have yet to see NHL action the Oilers can count on this season?

No.

OILERS-BARONS CENTER DEPTH CHART (PROJECTED) 2014-15

CENTER
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS
MARK ARCOBELLO
LEON DRAISAITL
BOYD GORDON
ANTON LANDER
WILL ACTON (Barons)
JUJHAR KHAIRA (Barons)
BOGDAN YAKIMOV (Barons)

This is not a good depth chart for an NHL team. As much  as people bitched and moaned about the Horcoff years, this team rode that guy and he made up for a lot of mistakes among the department of youth centers 2006+.  At this point, Mark Arcobello is probably looking at 400 at-bats no matter how this thing breaks down. He may end up playing up and down the lineup at center and on the wing, but there’s no way to keep him out of the top 12F’s unless Edmonton brings in two more NHL forwards. Will that happen?

No.

2014-15 HOPEFULS

If I were to choose a list of players who remain prospects to tout as solutions this coming season, it would look like this:

  1. C Mark Arcobello—A lock. He’s going to get 70 games in the NHL. A quality signing. 100%.
  2. D Martin Marincin—There are some who believe there’s a chance Marincin begins the season in OKC. I’d suggest it’s  95% he makes it.
  3. C Leon Draisaitl—He’s written in pen over at MacT’s office, No. 3 center. 90% chance he makes opening night roster.
  4. R Tyler Pitlick—Oilers haven’t solved the RW situation yet, that’s his job to lose right now. 75%.
  5. D Oscar Klefbom—The Oilers like this guy plenty. I think it’s 50% he makes the opening night roster.
  6. R Steve Pinizzotto: In contention for the Pitlick role. 30%.
  7. R Iiro Pakarinen: A hard-working winger with some skill. 25%.
  8. D Darnell Nurse—He’s determined and unique on this roster. 20% chance he makes opening night.
  9. L Mitch Moroz—Gazdic may miss start of season. There’s a role there. 10%.
  10. C Will Acton: Made his NHL debut last season, coach knows him. 10%.
  11. C Bogdan Yakimov—Draisaitl ate his lunch. Less than 5%.
  12. C Greg Chase—A puncher’s chance, he’s going to get noticed. Less than 3%.
  13. D Martin Gernat—Injuries above him and a stunning pre-season, but he’s in the conversation. Less than 1%.
  14. D David Musil—He’s a defenseman who doesn’t do spectacular things, but he’s on the outskirts. Less than 1%.
  15. D Dillon Simpson—A very long shot, injuries would need to occur. Less than 1%.
  16. C Jujhar Khaira—The Oilers need him now, but they need him at 22. Less than 1%.
  17. L Ryan Hamilton: If he could skate just a little better he’d have an NHL career. 1%.

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124 Responses to "DISTANT BELL"

  1. Halfwise says:

    Pitlick was drafted as a C, iirc. Wonder if there could be a development plan that involves C minutes with the Barons, or has that ship sailed? He has the tools, not sure about the toolbox.

  2. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The only way I see Marincin starting in OKC is if the team wants to give Darnell Nurse his 9 games, but they don’t want to run with 8 D. Marincin can still go down without waiver exposure. So it would be like this:

    Nikitin-Petry
    Ference-Fayne
    Nurse-Schultz
    Aullie

    But, that’s a unique situation. It wouldn’t be merit driven and we’d expect Nurse to head back to the care of Dubas asap and Marincin to spend the balance of the year in EDM.

  3. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    The only way I see Marincin starting in OKC is if the team wants to give Darnell Nurse his 9 games, but they don’t want to run with 8 D. Marincin can still go down without waiver exposure. So it would be like this:

    Nikitin-Petry
    Ference-Fayne
    Nurse-Schultz
    Aullie

    But, that’s a unique situation. It wouldn’t be merit driven and we’d expect Nurse to head back to the care of Dubas asap and Marincin to spend the balance of the year in EDM.

    Not this year, except for Marincin, but I see all 3 of Nurse, klefbom and Marincin distancing themselves from Ference by a significant gap next year. That would put Ference at about the 8th or 9th best Dman on the roster. Good thing we didn’t overpay him in money AND term.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Just wondering why Lander isn’t in your “hopefuls” list?

  5. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk: Not this year, except for Marincin, but I see all 3 of Nurse, klefbom and Marincin distancing themselves from Ference by a significant gap next year.That would put Ference at about the 8th or 9th best Dman on the roster.Good thing we didn’t overpay him in money AND term.

    Next off-season I expect Hall to get the C, and Ference to be bandied about as a trade or buy-out option.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    In that less than 1% we might add the following for sake of completeness:

    Miller, C. Hamilton, Davidson, Hunt, Oesterle, Ewanyk and Kessy.

    Joensuu should be in the 25% range too IMO. I don’t have a clue what they plan to do with him.

  7. steveb12344 says:

    Who do you guys see as the next “Marincin” in this group. ie; longshot prospect now, but will eventually come out of nowhere to be an important part of the big club.

    I like Boggy. A good year in the A, and if he develops well he might be the one to fill the 3C role when Dr. Drei is ready for 2C.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Just wondering why Lander isn’t in your “hopefuls” list?

    He’s not a prospect.

  9. Hammers says:

    So you see Lander as making it ??? Maybe 4th line & PK time but not if Arco is on the 4th line ..We all keep talking about players being traded or making the team but there is one thing I see as missing .PK players .If Gordon , Hendricks , Lander are on the 4th line they also seem our best PK players . Yes RNH can handle it but should he ? I hope not .I am still afraid the trade will be Marincin to Boston with Chara for Boychuck & Campbell . Boston dumps over $ 5 mill for a player that played with Chara in the Olympics and has plenty of upside . Both those players have 1 year left but could play in Edmonton .

  10. Lowetide says:

    steveb12344:
    Who do you guys see as the next “Marincin” in this group. ie; longshot prospect now, but will eventually come out of nowhere to be an important part of the big club.

    I like Boggy.A good year in the A, and if he develops well he might be the one to fill the 3C role when Dr. Drei is ready for 2C.

    Greg Chase.

  11. soup says:

    I don’t like the idea of trading Petry, but if it were to happen what about Petry for both Schenns? Solves problems for the Flyers, and give the Oilers both. Suitable center with upside, and a replacement (at least to a degree) for the hole left by Petry’s departure.

    Would it work?

  12. Zangetsu says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,
    Beat me to it.

  13. steveb12344 says:

    Lowetide: Greg Chase.

    Nice. I like him too. I think him and Moroz may be fighting for the same spot though.

    It will be very interesting to see how that shakes out.

  14. Zangetsu says:

    steveb12344,

    I like Yakimov, Chase, and simpson. I think my guy is Gernat though. He’s so similar to marincin(who exploded earlier than anybody thought).

  15. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    So you see Lander as making it ???Maybe 4th line & PK time but not if Arco is on the 4th line ..We all keep talking about players being traded or making the team but there is one thing I see as missing .PK players .If Gordon , Hendricks , Lander are on the 4th line they also seem our best PK players . Yes RNH can handle it but should he ? I hope not .I am still afraid the trade will be Marincin to Boston with Chara for Boychuck & Campbell . Boston dumps over $ 5 mill for a player that played with Chara in the Olympics and has plenty of upside . Both those players have 1 year left but could play in Edmonton .

    Yes, I think Lander is going to be on the team as a utility forward. I doubt he has enough offense to hold back most of the forwards in contention, but he’s also a guy who they value in a PK role.

  16. John Chambers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    My guess is two offseasons from now. Ference will have more support than last season and even if his struggles are mighty he is the captain and management is likely to give him another chance to get it back while letting Klefbom and Nurse develop.

    The contract is a bad one, but Philly has about 4 or 5 that are worse.

  17. steveb12344 says:

    Zangetsu:
    steveb12344,

    I like Yakimov, Chase,and simpson. I think my guy is Gernat though. He’s so similar to marincin(who exploded earlier than anybody thought).

    Ya. Simpson”s another good one, but boy does he have a mountain to climb.

    Same with Gernat. I would love to see him follow in Marincin’s footsteps, but he’s really got his work cut out.

  18. John Chambers says:

    Oilers have very few contracts expiring at the end of this coming season. Just Yakupov, Arcobello, Lander and Marincin.

    That will be an enviable position going into next summer’s free agency binge

  19. Hammers says:

    soup:
    I don’t like the idea of trading Petry, but if it were to happen what about Petry for both Schenns? Solves problems for the Flyers, and give the Oilers both. Suitable center with upside, and a replacement (at least to a degree) for the hole left by Petry’s departure.

    Would it work?

    It could if there was a pick or prospect in there . Would you also give up Yak2 or Chase with Petry ??

  20. soup says:

    Hammers,

    In the Flyer’s cap situation, I don’t think anything extra is required.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: He’s not a prospect.

    That’s because you have some kind of rationally formulated definition of prospect status. Mine is much more intuitive and idiosyncratic. To me Lander is still a prospect, if not moreso than Arco.

  22. John Chambers says:

    soup,

    It might make sense for both teams to see Petry + Arcobello for the brothers Schenn.

    One C and one D apiece with the Oilers getting the better centre and Pgilly getting an upgrade on D and some cap relief.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s because you have some kind of rationally formulated definition of prospect status. Mine is much more intuitive and idiosyncratic. To me Lander is still a prospect, if not moreso than Arco.

    I think Lander is a suspect at this point.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I think Lander is a suspect at this point.

    All the more reason to peg him as a “hopeful” ;)

  25. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: All the more reason to peg him as a “hopeful” ;)

    I have him in the original depth chart at the No. 5 center. That’s pretty damn hopeful. Anton Lander is Angel Salazar. We have him pegged. No mystery.

  26. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Lowetide,

    JK

  27. Numenius says:

    John Chambers:
    Oilers have very few contracts expiring at the end of this coming season. Just Yakupov, Arcobello, Lander and Marincin.

    That will be an enviable position going into next summer’s free agency binge

    Also Fasth.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I have him in the original depth chart at the No. 5 center. That’s pretty damn hopeful. Anton Lander is Angel Salazar. We have him pegged. No mystery.

    Yea. I get what you are doing here.

    I just have my own lists of prospects/hopefuls etc. and must have convergence!

  29. mumbai max says:

    John Chambers:
    Oilers have very few contracts expiring at the end of this coming season. Just Yakupov, Arcobello, Lander and Marincin.

    That will be an enviable position going into next summer’s free agency binge

    Not sure how that is a good thing. All those guys will likely need raises, some substantial, and there will only be 5 million new to work with. I am not sure it is much a net gain. No pun intended

  30. Ryan says:

    I was cheering hard for Arcobello last season. Even for me, it’s easy to forget how much better defensively he looked compared to Gagner who admittedly is not a high water mark. Speaking of hope, I’m still hopeful that Mact does something to bring in another top 9 centre (without trading Petry).

    I was listening to young Willis on your show the other day frame the issue of the Oilers depth at centre, first time I’ve heard him on the radio, he was great btw.

  31. jake70 says:

    Yakupov is now 20yo. Who gets the call up when he gets sent to OKC (assuming he is still in the organization)? ;-)

    LT: Anton Lander is Angel Salazar. Man I just got a bad headache reading that. Please god no.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Yea. I get what you are doing here.

    I just have my own lists of prospects/hopefuls etc. and must have convergence!

    I wish he was a prospect, just arriving this fall. He’d be a better player. This is why we can’t have nice things!

  33. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: He’d be a better player

    None of us can know this. He might be better, worse or the same.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Quick look at Brayden Schenn WOWY from last 2 years, everyone over 100min together on ice.

    If the number is positive, the player did better away from Brayden.

    SIMMONDS, WAYNE 1.1
    SCHENN, LUKE 1.6
    HARTNELL, SCOTT 3.9
    STREIT, MARK 1
    LECAVALIER, VINCENT 0.7
    COBURN, BRAYDON 3.1
    GROSSMANN, NICKLAS 0.5
    TIMONEN, KIMMO 3.4
    GUSTAFSSON, ERIK 1.9
    MESZAROS, ANDREJ -0.8
    BRIERE, DANIEL -1.8
    VORACEK, JAKUB 5.8
    READ, MATT -2.5
    GERVAIS, BRUNO -4.6
    RAFFL, MICHAEL -1.9
    MCGINN, TYE -4.7

    10/16 of his most common line mates had better results without him.

    His 9 most common linemates did better without him.

    Let’s look at his QC, ZS and RelCor

    QC – By BTN, Extraskater and TOI he’s is playing 3rd comp

    ZS:
    13/14 7of 12 – middle of the road
    12/13 1 of 14 – easiest ZS

    RelCor

    13/14 -6.7
    12/13 +2.9

    So he’s had the easiest road of PHI’s C in 12/13 and put up a reasonable +2.9 RelCor, but in 13/14 his job got a little harder (not much) and he was a nasty -6.7

    Did Lecav tank his season?

    13/14 WOW Schenn via Lecav

    With Lecav 45%
    WIthout Lecav 49.7%

    So there is an argument that Lecav was a giant anchor his year, but his WOWY last year pretty much mirror the 2 year ones, he doesn’t make his team mates better in easy conditions.

    Let’s remember that this is what Schenn put up in the 3C spot in the Eastern Conference.

    Thinking he can come to the WC and play 2C is a pipe dream at best with no basis in reality.

    Stay away from trading for Brayden Schenn

  35. Numenius says:

    Lowetide:
    Zack Christmas as an Oiler?

    Zack Christmas! Love it. You’re probably right about the name.

    And trading for him? Yes, please.

  36. Dee Dee says:

    While I agree that the Oilers don’t have great center depth, the difference this year is that the young ones are going to get a chance to learn their craft in the minors.

    It’s been a long long time since they have done that. Khaira and Yakimov in the minors will pay large dividends in future years.

  37. jp says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    The only way I see Marincin starting in OKC is if the team wants to give Darnell Nurse his 9 games, but they don’t want to run with 8 D. Marincin can still go down without waiver exposure. So it would be like this:

    Nikitin-Petry
    Ference-Fayne
    Nurse-Schultz
    Aullie

    But, that’s a unique situation. It wouldn’t be merit driven and we’d expect Nurse to head back to the care of Dubas asap and Marincin to spend the balance of the year in EDM.

    I don’t see Marincin starting in OKC either, but they’re just 1 injury away from having room for Nurse and Marincin (at least for the 9 games).

  38. Woodguy says:

    In the last 2 years Luke Schenn has played with 25 different players at least 100min toi together:

    Positive number means the player is better away from Luke:

    SCHENN, BRAYDEN 0.3
    SIMMONDS, WAYNE -1.7
    GIROUX, CLAUDE 0.5
    VORACEK, JAKUB 1.2
    HARTNELL, SCOTT 4
    TIMONEN, KIMMO -0.4
    READ, MATT 50.7 -2.7
    COUTURIER, SEAN 2.3
    GUSTAFSSON, ERIK -1.7
    MESZAROS, ANDREJ -4.6
    LECAVALIER, VINCENT 1.9
    RINALDO, ZAC 2.5
    HALL, ADAM 1.3
    MACDONALD, ANDREW -2.1
    RAFFL, MICHAEL -3
    LAURIDSEN, OLIVER -10.1
    TALBOT, MAXIME -0.8
    BRIERE, DANIEL -5.3
    FEDOTENKO, RUSLAN -1.7
    STREIT, MARK 0.3
    MCGINN, TYE 1.2
    DOWNIE, STEVE 2.7
    GROSSMANN, NICKLAS 15.3
    COBURN, BRAYDON 11.2
    KNUBLE, MIKE -1.3

    13/25 are better away from Luke. Better number than his brother.

    Let’s just look at D partners:

    TIMONEN, KIMMO -0.4
    GUSTAFSSON, ERIK -1.7
    MESZAROS, ANDREJ -4.6
    MACDONALD, ANDREW -2.1
    LAURIDSEN, OLIVER -10.1
    STREIT, MARK 0.3
    GROSSMANN, NICKLAS 15.3
    COBURN, BRAYDON 11.2

    This looks pretty good for Luke. 5/8 are better with him.

    Given that Luke played 3rds for the most part, this may be due to the fact that the Dman played easier minutes with Luke than with others.

    When you look at Grossman and Coburn’s numbers my first thought is that is when they tried him up the roster with tougher comp and he got smashed.

    Luke’s RelCor

    13/14 -8.2
    12/13 +6.9

    So like his brother, Luke had a much better 12/13 than 13/14. I’ve got to run, so I don’t have time to dig into why, but it might be interesting trying to find out. That’s a big swing.

    Note: Andrew MacDonald was a -18 RelCor last year and Philly game him $5MM x 6 years.

    HAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHA Nice one Hextall! Good luck with that you fucking mook!

    So Luke looks like a meh player as well, although not as meh as his brother.

    I still don’t want him on my team because there are enough Dmen who have better possession number who make less $$ and cost less to acquire.

    Pass on the brothers Schenn, they will not improve your hockey club.

  39. Lowetide says:

    WG: Are you hearing EDM is after Schenn(s)?

  40. Lowetide says:

    Dee Dee:
    While I agree that the Oilers don’t have great center depth, the difference this year is that the young ones are going to get a chance to learn their craft in the minors.

    It’s been a long long time since they have done that. Khaira and Yakimov in the minors will pay large dividends in future years.

    Exactly right. Five years from now we may look back and go “man, what incredible depth they had at C at the pro level in 2014 fall” but right now there’s a lot of tall boys.

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: http://www.puckrant.com/Slapshot/ZACK_CHRISTMAS/3727

    Where does he fit?

    He’s kind of a Gordon clone, but younger isn’t he?

    RNH
    Arco
    Smith
    Gordon
    Lander

    Let’s say you push Draisaitl down… does Smith play 2C or 3C?

  42. thejonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    I don’t have a good handle on the WOWY stat, so you’ll have to forgive me if this is a stupid question.

    Doesn’t it make sense that B. Shenn’s teammates would play better without him since, when they were apart from him, they’d often be playing with Giroux (a much better player)?

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 3m
    The deadline to file for Salary Arbitration is 3 PM MST. Both Jeff Petry and Justin Schultz have Arb rights

  44. dawgtoy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Where does he fit?

    He’s kind of a Gordon clone, but younger isn’t he?

    RNH
    Arco
    Smith
    Gordon
    Lander

    Let’s say you push Draisaitl down… does Smith play 2C or 3C?

    I deleted my comment, it was identical to yours. Though yours was better written. :)

  45. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: Are you hearing EDM is after Schenn(s)?

    No.

    Just thought I’d put it up given the conversation in the thread.

  46. Woodguy says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Woodguy,

    I don’t have a good handle on the WOWY stat, so you’ll have to forgive me if this is a stupid question.

    Doesn’t it make sense that B. Shenn’s teammates would play better without him since, when they were apart from him,they’d often be playing with Giroux (a much better player)?

    The other side of that coin is that away from Schenn(s) they are playing tougher minutes.

    I’m on my phone, but if you look at good 3rd line players like Pouliot and Perrault most players are better with them and the Pouliot and Perrault put up very good RelCor.

    Schenns are getting the cherry minutes. Failure to make your team mates better in that situation doesn’t bode well for moving up the depth chart.

  47. Factotum says:

    “… he got the Corgis to bark for him.”

    Love it, LT! May the Corgis conquer the rest of the Al Gore.

  48. Lois Lowe says:

    I just got home from watching the Oilers O Camp practice in Jasper. Since I am not an evaluator of talent and because the practice isn’t over yet, I will keep my observations to the pithy kind.

    - the Teuton and Nurse are like kids in men’s bodies. They both have a lot more growing to do.
    - Brossoit is the most polished goalie in practice.
    - CJ Ludwig is hurt and not practicing with the team. He also has his father’s nose.
    - Arenas are colder than I remember (I haven’t been in a small one in over a decade).

  49. Numenius says:

    Smith has an incredible value contract for the next 3 years at $1.887M

    So how do you get him?

    Does an unsigned Petry do it? Might not be enough, since only 1 year is guaranteed.

    If Petry works, how do you replace him?

    Add Klefbom and get Wiercioch? He’s not an R shot, but he’s young, good and under appreciated.

    I may be completely off, but let’s go with that:

    Petry and Klefbom -> Smith and Wiercioch.

    I’m not sure Ottawa does that trade.

    I’m also not sure Edmonton does that trade. Klef’s upside might be higher than Wiercioch’s

  50. Dicky94 says:

    Would a second round pick and a d prospect get you Coburn from Philly? If all this talk of Petry being shipped out for a centre, just wondering if people would be happy with that replacement. Is he an upgrade? I think so.

  51. KozyMel says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    So it would be like this:

    Nikitin-Petry
    Ference-Fayne
    Nurse-Schultz
    Aullie

    But, that’s a unique situation. It wouldn’t be merit driven and we’d expect Nurse to head back to the care of Dubas asap and Marincin to spend the balance of the year in EDM.

    Seth Jones did well because he was sheltered by his playing partner – some guy named “Webber”. The Oilers don’t have anyone 1/2 as good as him.

    Your depth chart has Nurse paired with J.Schultz???? Are you nuts??

    Every time Ference or N.Schultz saw they were partnered with J.Schultz I’m sure their first response was “Why me?”

    Schultz needs an experienced stay at home D man to be able to cover up his mistakes. Very similar in the way the Oil Kings sheltered Keegan Lowe with Mark Pysyk. It made a big difference in Lowe’s game the next year.

    Better yet, Schultz needs a year in OKC learning how to play defence, or move him up to the vacant RW spot.

  52. Logan91 says:

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/5/22/5742318/brayden-schenn-contract-trade-rumors-flyers

    Read this article a while ago, thought it would be fitting to post since it’s regarding Schenn.

  53. Numenius says:

    Dicky94:
    Would a second round pick and a d prospect get you Coburn from Philly? If all this talk of Petry being shipped out for a centre, just wondering if people would be happy with that replacement.Is he an upgrade?I think so.

    That was also in my mind.

    Petry for Smith. 2nd and D prospect for Cobourn. Not sure which D prospect would get it done outside of the big three.

  54. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I think Lander is a suspect at this point.

    At the same age Lander is now, Arcobello has just finished his first year of pro split between the ECHL and AHL. Lander is a point-a-game all situations player in the AHL.

  55. FastOil says:

    I’m not sure Smith fills the 2C slot which is where the hole is. Need someone with more offense. Might as well play Lander or Arco there if defensive play is sufficient, no loss of assets. Either could get 22 pts playing 2C all year no sweat. The size/hitting isn’t important especially since there are bigger wingers to play them with.

    It should be a winger, Fasth, prospects and non 2015 picks in play for the C, and the C needs to be quality to even do a deal of any magnitude. Trading one of the 2 best D on the team is a sideways move, maybe even backward given Schultz could still possibly be the best tweener in NHL history.

  56. soup says:

    Woodguy: The other side of that coin is that away from Schenn(s) they are playing tougher minutes.

    I’m on my phone, but if you look at good 3rd line players like Pouliot and Perrault most players are better with them and the Pouliot and Perrault put up very good RelCor.

    Schenns are getting the cherry minutes. Failure to make your team mates better in that situation doesn’t bode well for moving up the depth chart.

    I learn something everyday on this site. Thanks for the education. Just say no to Schenns.

  57. Factotum says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Nice work, Rom. We should all bookmark that page and refer back to it. It fits in nicely with Eakins’ narrative, too, about not being an offensive team and relying on a small group of forwards to score. And speaks to the gaping hole at C.

    I’m curious how Purcell and Pouliot have fared on that metric. Might be useful for setting reasonable expectations.

  58. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    KozyMel: Seth Jones did well because he was sheltered by his playing partner – some guy named “Webber”. The Oilers don’t have anyone 1/2 as good as him.

    Your depth chart has Nurse paired with J.Schultz???? Are you nuts??

    Every time Ference or N.Schultz saw they were partnered with J.Schultz I’m sure their first response was “Why me?”

    Schultz needs an experienced stay at home D man to be able to cover up his mistakes. Very similar in the way the Oil Kings sheltered Keegan Lowe with Mark Pysyk. It made a big difference in Lowe’s game the next year.

    Better yet, Schultz needs a year in OKC learning how to play defence, or move him up to the vacant RW spot.

    I think you missed the point of my comment.

    Who Nurse is paired with is an entirely secondary question to whether he plays his 9 games, whether they decide to carry 7 or 8 D during those 9 games and whether that pushes Marincin out for 9 games

  59. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/07/breaking-point-points-per-60-line-assignments/

    new post up picking up from @garrethohl ‘s work

    Nice stuff. Point per 60 used to be a major area of discussion, but has been droned out by the barking of the Corgi’s.

    RNH’s offense appears to be a concern which makes us even weaker at centre than we realize.

    Would be interesting to contrast some of the new pickups with last year’s lineup.

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One wrinkle on the trade Petry/acquire Coburn idea is that Petry is an RD, Coburn an LD.

    I don’t know how well Coburn switches sides… so you might end up with Nikitin or Ference as your 1RD.

  61. Woodguy says:

    soup: I learn something everyday on this site. Thanks for the education. Just say no to Schenns.

    I could be wrong.

    I’m not the burning bush.

    That said, this way of looking at players have a pretty good track record in the last 5 years or so.

  62. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Factotum:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Nice work, Rom.We should all bookmark that page and refer back to it.It fits in nicely with Eakins’ narrative, too, about not being an offensive team and relying on a small group of forwards to score.And speaks to the gaping hole at C.

    I’m curious how Purcell and Pouliot have fared on that metric. Might be useful for setting reasonable expectations.

    Purcell’s P/60 last year: 1.37 (12.99 TOI/60)

    Pouliot: 1.79 (11.32)

    Both were playing 3rd line(ish) minutes. which has a baseline of about 1.50. Purcell is shy (not devastatingly so, mind you) and Pouliot is clear.

  63. godot10 says:

    Philly could save about $3 million in cap space in a Coburn and Brayden Schenn for Jeff Petry and Tyler PItlick deal, if Jeff Petry files for arbitration.

    Petry would get max $3.5 million in arbitration. So they would save $1 million on Petry and $2 million on Pitlick.

    Ditto if one substitutes Lander for Pitlick.

    After getting Petry on a one year arbitration deal, they could then immediately sign him to a long term contract.

    Or alternatively, nudge, nudge, wink wink with him, save even more cap space, by setting on a low number pre arbitration hearing for one season, with a quid pro quo on a more lucrative long term deal.

  64. Woodguy says:

    Willis is convincing me there is a fit in trading for a C from NYI

    Here are the top 5 C’s via Faceoffs taken last year on NYI

    Tavares
    Nielsen
    Cizikas
    Nelson
    Strome

    Tavares and Strome (5th overall, just starting his NHL career) are probably untouchable.

    Nielsen is a very good 2 way C who should have won the Selke the year Kesler won, but only has 2 years left until he is UFA.

    Nelson was a 30th overall and has put up sick RelCor numbers in soft minutes. He’s results are want you want to see in your 3C. +10 RelCor

    His WOWY tell the same story

    CLUTTERBUCK, CAL 50.6 47.6 -3
    HICKEY, THOMAS 54.7 49.5 -5.2
    POULIN, KEVIN 55.9 47.4 -8.5
    HAMONIC, TRAVIS 52.9 49.4 -3.5
    BAILEY, JOSH 57.4 50.7 -6.7
    MACDONALD, ANDREW 45.5 44.3 -1.2
    DE_HAAN, CALVIN 54.2 51.6 -2.6
    NILSSON, ANDERS 51.6 48.7 -2.9
    DONOVAN, MATT 59.4 52.2 -7.2
    STRAIT, BRIAN 47.9 43.3 -4.6
    STROME, RYAN 53.2 51.4 -1.8
    CARKNER, MATT 59 47.4 -11.6
    OKPOSO, KYLE 53.6 49.5 -4.1
    MCDONALD, COLIN 51.5 46.6 -4.9
    GRABNER, MICHAEL 49.7 51 1.3
    PERSSON, JOHN 49.7 39 -10.7

    15/16 are better with Nelson.

    Cizkas was just their 4C and is RFA.

    Add to this group Grabbo.

    So Tavares, Grabbo and Strome are locks.

    That leaves Nelson and Nielsen.

    If i”m snow I don’t let the 6’3″ 22 year old Nelson go.

    I run Tavares, Grabbo, Strome, Nelson and trade Nelsen since he is FA in two years.

    Please trade him to EDM Garth.

    Help a brother out.

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    I came up with Nielson last night too, when I went through rosters looking for guys will only a year or two left on their term that might work and shake loose.

    Let’s get this train going.

  66. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Purcell’s P/60 last year: 1.37 (12.99 TOI/60)

    Pouliot: 1.79 (11.32)

    Both were playing 3rd line(ish) minutes. which has a baseline of about 1.50. Purcell is shy (not devastatingly so, mind you) and Pouliot is clear.

    Purcell’s pts/60 and 5v5 ONSH% last 7 years:

    2007-2008 1.64 10.87
    2008-2009 .86 6.8
    2009-2010 0.99 5.21
    2010-2011 2.02 8.32
    2011-2012 2.47 11.87
    2012-2013 2.1 10.33
    2013-2014 1.37 7.71

    He started playing with Stamkos in 11/12, go figure eh?

    Stamkos goes down and his ONSH% almost drops 4% and he has a low pts/60.

    Not entirely sold he needs Stamkos to get back to 1.75, there some talent on the Oilers too and 1.75 isn’t the lofty heights of 2.47.

  67. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Woodguy,

    I came up with Nielson last night too, when I went through rosters looking for guys will only a year or two left on their term that might work and shake loose.

    Let’s get this train going.

    Let;’s get this turned into a rumour, stat!

  68. Rondo says:

    The other Canadian wins in doubles at Wimbledon

  69. Henry says:

    Woodguy,

    Your analysis makes the Islanders look pretty good for next year as long as Halak plays well.

    They need another Ollie + Luongo for Parrish trade to screw it up.

    See what you can come up with MacT.

  70. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Henry:
    Woodguy,

    Your analysis makes the Islanders look pretty good for next year as long as Halak plays well.

    A lot of that depends on Lubo being healthy and in good form.

  71. Woodguy says:

    Henry:
    Woodguy,

    Your analysis makes the Islanders look pretty good for next year as long as Halak plays well.

    They need another Ollie + Luongo for Parrish trade to screw it up.

    See what you can come up with MacT.

    Add to this Halak in net.

    If NYI had league average goaltending last year they allow 40 less goals.

    Last year, with Tavares out for a lot of had a -42 goal differential.

    I think betting on NYI to make the playoffs this year is a very good bet.

    Might almost be as good of a bet as betting for COL to miss the playoffs.

  72. Numenius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Woodguy,

    I came up with Nielson last night too, when I went through rosters looking for guys will only a year or two left on their term that might work and shake loose.

    Let’s get this train going.

    This would be fantastic.

    The Isles could really use a top 4 RD, so they might be interested.

    I’m not sure Petry gets it done on his own though. I wonder what else would be required.

    The Oil would also have to find a D at a lower cap hit than Petry’s would have been to stay under the cap for next year.

  73. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: A lot of that depends on Lubo being healthy and in good form.

    That’s why they need Petry.

    Hamonic – De haan – Locked in top pair, very good
    HIckey – Viz – Good 2nd pairing – add in Petry and its very good. Hickey looks to be a player….finally

    Left over are Donavon, Strait, and Carkner and you have Reinhart making the team too.

    So if you run Hickey – Petry as your 2nd pair and then Viz-Reinhart on the 3rd and that’s not a bad Dcorps.

  74. Henry says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Lubo is key for this year, you’re right. In coming years Pulock, Griffin, their cap space and the move to Brooklyn could make for some real success.

  75. Rondo says:

    Numenius,

    Petry is 26 yrs old and Edmonton’s best D-man

    Nielsen is 30 yrs old.

    I’m not sure Edmonton would do it.

  76. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    Here is a review on B. Schenns 13-14 season.
    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/5/19/5726314/philadelphia-flyers-2013-14-year-in-review-brayden-schenn

    “What Schenn seems to be lacking is a particular standout skillset. He isn’t slow, but he’s also not a burner. He’s a good but not great passer. He can score but lacks a sniper’s mentality and has solid but not elite hockey sense.

    The Mike Richards comparisons that Schenn received at the start of his career were meant to be complementary, but glossed over a key point — even in his prime, Richards was far from the most skilled player on the ice. Aside from great vision on the power play, his best attribute was his relentless playing style, which manifested in his ability to take tough 5v5 assignments and rack up shorthanded points on the penalty kill.

    Schenn showed flashes of that style during the 2013-14 season, but it wasn’t visible on a nightly basis. Holmgren mentioned in his end of season interview that Schenn took a leap when he realized he had to play “a hard game” all of the time. That seems to be a fair assessment of Brayden Schenn’s talent, and what he needs to do in order to reach his full potential as a player.”

  77. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Anybody know if there’s an open(to spectators) on-ice session in jasper tomorrow morning? If so, what time and where?

  78. Numenius says:

    Rondo:
    Numenius,

    Petry is 26 yrs old and Edmonton’s best D-man

    Nielsen is 30 yrs old.

    I’m not sure Edmonton would do it.

    It depends if Edm could shake someone like Cobourn loose for picks and prospects.

    I added Nielsen (2,750,000), Cobourn (4,500,000), Jultz (3,500,000), and Leon (925,000) on Capgeek and subtracted Petry, leaving $1,107,500 in cap space.

    The roster looked almost balanced.

    That’s very doable for this year.

    The only question would be about next year, but by then, they could probably trade Nikitin (if needed) without being assholes.

  79. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: So Tavares, Grabbo and Strome are locks.
    That leaves Nelson and Nielsen.
    If i”m snow I don’t let the 6’3″ 22 year old Nelson go.
    I run Tavares, Grabbo, Strome, Nelson and trade Nelsen since he is FA in two years.

    That makes infinitely more sense than Bailey. However, like Bailey, they might be planning to slot Nelson or Nielsen on the wing next season. It’s worth a phone call to Snow though.

    Edit: I wouldn’t want to give up Petry for Nielsen though.

  80. thejonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy: I run Tavares, Grabbo, Strome, Nelson and trade Nelsen since he is FA in two years.

    I’m confused.

    Edit: I think you mean Neilsen.

  81. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Numenius,

    Petry is 26 yrs old and Edmonton’s best D-man

    Nielsen is 30 yrs old.

    I’m not sure Edmonton would do it.

    Given all the verbal around trading Petry from the MSM, I’m assuming that there is fire behind the smoke.

    I am also not convinced that EDM values Petry correctly.

    I’m not concerned that Nielsen is 30. He’s the goods and 30 isn’t old when he only has 2 years left on his contract.

    The contracts are a close match in that Petry is only guaranteed to be Oilers property for 1 more year, more if they can get him to sign.

    Neilsen has 2 years left.

    Snow is under a tremendous amount of pressure to have a good season since his 1st rounder is owned by BUF due to his failed Vanek gambit.

    Snow knows he needs to shore up his D and has a great stable of young forwards, particularly at C.

    Add to that group Grabbo and Kulimen and Neilsen becomes the reasonable chip to upgrade the D and Neilsen is a perfect fit for EDM.

    Extremely good without the puck and has managed to score a bit when with scoring talent.

  82. oilswell says:

    I haven’t followed this draft at all, and Oilers little recently, so I’m puzzled about the consternation about the 2nd line C. Draisaitl seems to have put up some points in his last year of junior and was drafted pretty high. Is the scuttlebutt on him that he pretty far from being NHL ready? I’m wondering why the chatter around him isn’t more like Landeskog or Duschene, both of which contributed well in their first year. I get that a different team doesn’t rely on 18 year olds, but good teams rarely draft high and when they do even teams like the Bruins and Flyers have put 18 year olds into important positions.

    I guess what I’m asking is if the hand wringing over the 2nd line C is so agitated primarily because of low expectations for such a high draft pick.

  83. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    oilswell:
    I haven’t followed this draft at all, and Oilers little recently, so I’m puzzled about the consternation about the 2nd line C.Draisaitl seems to have put up some points in his last year of junior and was drafted pretty high.Is the scuttlebutt on him that he pretty far from being NHL ready?I’m wondering why the chatter around him isn’t more like Landeskog or Duschene, both of which contributed well in their first year.I get that a different team doesn’t rely on 18 year olds, but good teams rarely draft high and when they do even teams like the Bruins and Flyers have put 18 year olds into important positions.

    I guess what I’m asking is if the hand wringing over the 2nd line C is so agitated primarily because of low expectations for such a high draft pick.

    No, the expectations for LD are high. But, they are paced appropriately. He won’t be able to handle 2C for 2-3 years.

    Breaking in to the NHL is hard. Doing so on a second line is really hard. Doing so as a C is near impossible.

  84. Lowetide says:

    oilswell:
    I haven’t followed this draft at all, and Oilers little recently, so I’m puzzled about the consternation about the 2nd line C.Draisaitl seems to have put up some points in his last year of junior and was drafted pretty high.Is the scuttlebutt on him that he pretty far from being NHL ready?I’m wondering why the chatter around him isn’t more like Landeskog or Duschene, both of which contributed well in their first year.I get that a different team doesn’t rely on 18 year olds, but good teams rarely draft high and when they do even teams like the Bruins and Flyers have put 18 year olds into important positions.

    I guess what I’m asking is if the hand wringing over the 2nd line C is so agitated primarily because of low expectations for such a high draft pick.

    Great question. The Oilers have suggested Gordon will play 4line and the club will go with three scoring lines. LD was been placed on a 3line, a soft minutes group, and we’re tearing ourselves to pieces looking for the 2C.

    It could be:

    RNH
    LD
    Gordon
    Arco
    Lander

    and we wouldn’t be talking about it. However, the Oilers appear to be searching for a C.

  85. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Here’s a thought.

    If the package is what Rishaug mused about –– Petry and next year’s 2nd

    That’s a really good package. Really good.

    Now, let’s game out the long term thinking.

    We’re all guessing that they don’t want anyone long term, because they have 1 and 2 C locked down for the long term future in RNH and LD.

    So, they want someone in the interim. Say for the next two years. Maybe at that point you re-sign him or trade him at the deadline. But, that’s not the question yet.

    The perfect scenario, it seems to me, was to sign Legwand or equivalent for 2-3 years.

    On a trade… for Petry and next year’s 2nd… you should get something really damn nice.

    If that’s the trade… maybe they are looking for a bigger, more long term upgrade than we think?

    Does that make sense…?

    Petry and next year’s 2nd seems steep for Nielson as an example.

  86. rickithebear says:

    KozyMel: Seth Jones did well because he was sheltered by his playing partner – some guy named “Webber”. The Oilers don’t have anyone 1/2 as good as him.

    J. Schultz 3.08 EVGA/60
    Mark fraser 3.05 EVGA/60 190/208 18th worst
    Seth jones 3.05 EVGA/60
    Petry 2.97 EVGA/60

    You are correct! we do not have anyone 1/2 as good!

  87. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apoth
    eosis
    :
    Here’s a thought.

    If the package is what Rishaug mused about –– Petry and next year’s 2nd

    That’s a really good package. Really good.

    Now, let’s game out the long term thinking.

    We’re all guessing that they don’t want anyone long term, because they have 1 and 2 C locked down for the long term future in RNH and LD.

    So, they want someone in the interim. Say for the next two years. Maybe at that point you re-sign him or trade him at the deadline. But, that’s not the question yet.

    The perfect scenario, it seems to me, was to sign Legwand or equivalent for 2-3 years.

    On a trade… for Petry and next year’s 2nd… you should get something really damn nice.

    If that’s the trade… maybe they are looking for a bigger, more long term upgrade than we think?

    Does that make sense…?

    Petry and next year’s 2nd seems steep for Nielson as an example.

    I’m on record saying the same.

    Not signing Legwand and rumours of Petry + 2nd tells us that MacT is aiming high.

    I’m glad.

    Hope he gets it right.

    If Petry won’t sign long term I do Petry for Neilsen straight across and feel ok about it.

  88. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Here’s a thought.

    If the package is what Rishaug mused about –– Petry and next year’s 2nd

    That’s a really good package. Really good.

    Now, let’s game out the long term thinking.

    We’re all guessing that they don’t want anyone long term, because they have 1 and 2 C locked down for the long term future in RNH and LD.

    So, they want someone in the interim. Say for the next two years. Maybe at that point you re-sign him or trade him at the deadline. But, that’s not the question yet.

    The perfect scenario, it seems to me, was to sign Legwand or equivalent for 2-3 years.

    On a trade… for Petry and next year’s 2nd… you should get something really damn nice.

    If that’s the trade… maybe they are looking for a bigger, more long term upgrade than we think?

    Does that make sense…?

    Petry and next year’s 2nd seems steep for Nielson as an example.

    Well, it we’re making a list of ‘ideal’ candidate for C, O’Reilly comes to mind but he’s out of reach imo. Nielson’s a really nice name, but we also have men like Anisimov. And if might be ‘Petry and a 2nd for Anisimov and a x rd pick’.

    It’s a great part of the equation (the package) but there’s still a lot of mystery.

  89. Gerta Rauss says:

    Neilsen is an interesting target. Nice contract and term.

    Sign Petry and Schultz and you’ve still got a little spending money if a 4RW catches your eye.

    If they are trading Petry there has to be another NHL D man added to this group, just has to be.

  90. Woodguy says:

    http://www.nhlpa.com/news/20-players-elect-salary-arbitration

    Neither Petry or Jultz on the arb list.

    Very good news, esp regarding Petry.

    Subbban files! Have fun Habs!

  91. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    My worry is that the Oilers (and maybe the league) undervalues Petry so much that it ends up being Petry and a 2nd for Nielson (for example) and that’s it.

  92. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Well, it we’re making a list of ‘ideal’ candidate for C, O’Reilly comes to mind but he’s out of reach imo. Nielson’s a really nice name, but we also have men like Anisimov. And if might be ‘Petry and a 2nd for Anisimov and a x rd pick’.

    It’s a great part of the equation (the package) but there’s still a lot of mystery.

    I think Neilsen is a better option than Anisimov. I like Anisimov too and would be happy with either.

    I agree on ROR, but don’t say he’s out of reach. I think MacT trades Yak + 2015 2nd to get him.

    I wonder if Anisimov is the target and Johansson’s salary dispute is holding things up?

  93. VanOil says:

    I think trading the team’s best defender, a Right hander to boot, is a mistake. Sign the man.

    I am not as attached to magic beans as many here.

    I would trade magic beans for a flowering bean stock.

    Oilers 2015 1st for Brock Nelson and NYI 2015 2nd.

  94. Younger Oil says:

    I know MacT doesn’t see it this way, but I’d really, REALLY prefer Petry over Schultz going forward. I bet Schultz has more value around the league than Petry too.

    I bet Schultz and a 2nd could fetch a really good #2C.

    Even better, Schultz and a 2nd for a 3rd and a slightly lesser #2C (that could comfortably move to #3C in a couple of years), then trading that 3rd and maybe a prospect for someone like Boychuk, then sign Petry and Draisaitl, and I would be very happy with that lineup going forward.

  95. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy<

    Chris Kreideron the list

    All NYR forward RFA (Zuccarello, Brassard) filed too.

    I think Slats is gonna regret giving older than dirt Dan Boyle 4.5 x 2.

    I could use Brassard at C or Kreider at wing.

  96. jp says:

    Why has Derek Roy been written off as an option for 2C? I know he’s small and had a bad year in StL, but he was mostly excellent before that (positive CorsiRels, 1st or 2nd line comp, and little or no ZS push). Even last year his CorsiOn was better than anyone on the Oilers :)

    He’s still just 31, and signed for 1X4M last summer. Coming off a poor season he might take 2X3.5M or 2X4M to come to Edmonton. Sounds like a decent stopgap solution until Draisaitl gets his training wheels off. Also a decent chance his play will rebound, plus he wouldn’t cost Petry…

  97. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I think Neilsen is a better option than Anisimov. I like Anisimov too and would be happy with either.

    I agree on ROR, but don’t say he’s out of reach. I think MacT trades Yak + 2015 2nd to get him.

    I wonder if Anisimov is the target and Johansson’s salary dispute is holding things up?

    One wonders if Howson has the ear of MacT in regard to Anisimov. Kind of crazy to think Nielson might be available, man he’d be nice.

  98. Ryan says:

    jp:
    Why has Derek Roy been written off as an option for 2C? I know he’s small and had a bad year in StL, but he was mostly excellent before that (positive CorsiRels, 1st or 2nd line comp, and little or no ZS push). Even last year his CorsiOn was better than anyone on the Oilers

    He’s still just 31, and signed for 1X4M last summer. Coming off a poor season he might take 2X3.5M or 2X4M to come to Edmonton. Sounds like a decent stopgap solution until Draisaitl gets his training wheels off. Also a decent chance his play will rebound, plus he wouldn’t cost Petry…

    Lots of chatter that Roy is done. Small and slow… Too many injuries. Not a good fit for the WC.

  99. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: One wonders if Howson has the ear of MacT in regard to Anisimov. Kind of crazy to think Nielson might be available, man he’d be nice.

    Unless they move Strome or Nelson to wing with Tavares back.

    They might slot Grabbo and Kule into Neilsen’s slot of tough minutes.

    Man are they deep at C and have a nice stable of young D.

  100. jp says:

    A little more on Roy: His most common line mates last year were Stewart and Morrow (together for 359 and 314 of Roy’s 806 5X5 TOI – no other forward played more than 150 min with Roy).

    Roy had a 51.9% CF overall.

    His CF% when with:
    Stewart 47.6%
    Morrow 46.7%

    His CF% when apart from:
    Stewart 55.3%
    Morrow 54.8%

    Teammate CF% when not with Roy:
    Stewart 47.4%
    Morrow 49.7%

    Roy played almost half his ice time with these guys, and they appear to have dragged him down terribly.

    He isn’t the ideal 2C, but he seems like a reasonable bet for 1 or 2 yrs at <4M. Again, the key being not having to send away significant assets.

  101. Ryan says:

    Younger Oil:
    I know MacT doesn’t see it this way, but I’d really, REALLY prefer Petry over Schultz going forward. I bet Schultz has more value around the league than Petry too.

    I bet Schultz and a 2nd could fetch a really good #2C.

    Even better, Schultz and a 2nd for a 3rd and a slightly lesser #2C (that could comfortably move to #3C in a couple of years), then trading that 3rd and maybe a prospect for someone like Boychuk, then sign Petry and Draisaitl, and I would be very happy with that lineup going forward.

    No question Petry is currently the better defenseman. I don’t know if Schultz will ever figure out how to defend.

    That being said, Petry doesn’t fit the boys on the bus theme. Schultz at least in theory is Coffee. :)

  102. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    That Legwand contract really was perfect. The more I think about it, the more frustrating that is.

    Right $, time frame and no assets burned.

    watch the bastards sign Ott.

  103. Factotum says:

    IMO, Nielsen > ROR > Anisimov. YMMV.

    I agree with LT. It’s crazy to think the Oilers might be able to get Nielsen. Heckuva player. History of playing the toughs. Brings enough offense to be 2C.

    Only concern: Perhaps not quite heavy enough for the WC, especially with 1C=Nuge. Coming off career year for boxcars that he’s not likely to duplicate, which may drive up price.

    I don’t want to trade Petry, either, but for Nielsen? I think I make that trade every day.

    Staples had an interesting piece on Petry today. My interpretation: More evidence that the poor guy has been playing over his head. He’s a nice 2nd pair Dman, but on the Oilers he’s been forced onto the top pair.

    I can’t decide which is the bigger hole right now: 2/3 C or 1/2D. Solve BOTH of those somehow and I think we’d be looking at – wait for it – a balanced roster.

    Unless there’s more to come, a Petry for C trade seems like it might fill one hole at the cost of making the other one worse.

    As always, we wait.

  104. spoiler says:

    D. Roy’s fancy stats from CapGeek’s handy tool:

    5v5P/60: 1.49

    CF%Rel: -1.8%

    ZS%: 63.2%

    QoC TOI%: 27.6%

    I don’t think I could do it, although Morrow had some nice boxcars playing with him.

  105. Kris11 says:

    Eberle for Nielson ++ is something to think about.

    With all the wingers who can play and Yak, Eberle is the most expendable, most valuable, most overvalued, trade-asset that the Oilers have.

    But they won’t trade him.

  106. Kris11 says:

    What is fair vale for Subban from an arbitrator? 8mm?

  107. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Kris11:
    Eberle for Nielson ++ is something to think about.

    With all the wingers who can play and Yak, Eberle is the most expendable, most valuable,most overvalued, trade-asset that the Oilers have.

    But they won’t trade him.

    I think I’d trade Perron before Eberle.

  108. bendelson says:

    Brock mainly played the wing last season and struggled in the FO circle when asked… I doubt he plays C this season making Nielson a long shot to be traded.

    With the Howson connection, Anisimov continues to intrigue though I’m not convinced CLB needs Petry… They need wingers no?

    It has been mentioned before, Perron to CLB for Anisimov and Calvert. Tempting…
    Perron for Anisimov isn’t enough.

    All very interesting…

    I can’t imagine MacT starting the year behind the 8 ball at centre… again.

  109. rickithebear says:

    Nikitin 1.31 EVGA/60 2ndcomp
    Fayne 1.61 EVGA/60 2nd comp
    Marincin 2.08 EVGA/60 First comp
    Aulie 2.10 EVGA/60 3rd comp TMP
    Aulie 2,22 EVGA/60 1st comp TOR
    J. schultz 2.11 EVGA/60 1st/2nd comp scrivens

    Pery w/ ference 2.24 EVGA/60 1st comp.

  110. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    Nikitin 1.31 EVGA/60 2ndcomp
    Fayne 1.61 EVGA/60 2nd comp
    Marincin 2.08 EVGA/60 First comp
    Aulie2.10 EVGA/60 3rd comp TMP
    Aulie 2,22 EVGA/60 1st comp TOR
    J. schultz 2.11 EVGA/60 1st/2nd comp scrivens

    Pery w/ ference 2.24 EVGA/601st comp.

    To be clear:

    You are saying Petry is the Oilers 6th best Dman right?

  111. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: To be clear:

    You are saying Petry is the Oilers 6th best Dman right?

    Well. He wasn’t stopping the shots from going in the net! That’s the D’s job, right?

  112. striatic says:

    Kris11: With all the wingers who can play and Yak, Eberle is the most expendable, most valuable, most overvalued, trade-asset that the Oilers have.
    But they won’t trade him.

    You don’t trade Eberle because his contract keeps him here for a good long while and into possible playoff contention windows. Whoever you trade him for will evaporate into UFA land in a couple years – at which point you’ve traded Eberle for nothing.

    Perron is the guy you move if you’ve got excess wingers.

    Perron is coming off a strong season, strongest market value he’s ever had, and will be UFA before this team is capable of serious playoff contention. Ship him out for someone with a 4 year contract or with a pending RFA you can lock in for a few years.

  113. One-Timer says:

    VanOil:
    I think trading the team’s best defender, a Right hander to boot, is a mistake. Sign the man.

    I am not as attached to magic beans as many here.

    I would trade magic beans for a flowering bean stock.

    Oilers 2015 1st for Brock Nelson and NYI 2015 2nd.

    Apparently trading the McDavid lotto ticket is devilspeak in these parts, but I’m totally with you on this.

    IF McDavid is your saviour and IF he’s as good as Sid the Kid and IF you can afford him later without gutting the rest of your roster, then MAYBE he wins a cup here in 2021.

    And all that is IF you pick first next year!

    Repeat after Cortez: “Burn the ships.”

    LT, could you do a “What would the 2015 1st bring back” post? Pretty please?

  114. Pouzar says:

    Kris11:
    Eberle for Nielson ++ is something to think about.

    With all the wingers who can play and Yak, Eberle is the most expendable, most valuable,most overvalued, trade-asset that the Oilers have.

    But they won’t trade him.

    ARGH!!!!!!!!

  115. jp says:

    Woodguy: To be clear:

    You are saying Petry is the Oilers 6th best Dman right?

    Not as good as Aulie. Clearly.

    And not sure where these numbers are from. Marincin’s fits with BTN, but the others don’t.

    Also, Fistric remains elite in Anaheim by this metric.

  116. jp says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Well. He wasn’t stopping the shots from going in the net! That’s the D’s job, right?

    Just the shots from the box if I understand it.

  117. Pouzar says:

    striatic: You don’t trade Eberle because his contract keeps him here for a good long while and into possible playoff contention windows. Whoever you trade him for will evaporate into UFA land in a couple years – at which point you’ve traded Eberle for nothing.

    Perron is the guy you move if you’ve got excess wingers.

    Perron is coming off a strong season, strongest market value he’s ever had, and will be UFA before this team is capable of serious playoff contention. Ship him out for someone with a 4 year contract or with a pending RFA you can lock in for a few years.

    This. I am so tired of Oiler fans trying to trade Eberle. Jezzuz H.
    I’ve never come across a more undervalued player by Oiler fans in my life and I’ve lived
    through the glory years.

  118. rickithebear says:

    Kris11:
    Eberle for Nielson ++ is something to think about.

    With all the wingers who can play and Yak, Eberle is the most expendable, most valuable,most overvalued, trade-asset that the Oilers have.

    But they won’t trade him.

    Goal scoring Check list:

    1. top 6 PPG
    YES.

    2. top 6 EVG forwards 1-3
    Hall; Perron; Eberle
    YES

    3. TOP 6 EVG Forwards 4-6
    RNH; Gagner; Yakupov
    NO
    RNH; Purcell; Pouliot
    YES

    4. TOP 6 EVG Forwards 7-9
    Smyth; Gordon; Hemsky
    NO
    Yakupov(11): Draisaitl(9); Arco(9)
    YES if they hit the bracket numbers

    5. Strong D ZS FO% Forwards
    Hendricks-Gordon-XXX
    YES

    Trade Eberle = DUMB FUCK

  119. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: To be clear:

    You are saying Petry is the Oilers 6th best Dman right?

    No i am saying you try to find the best combination of
    1st comp
    2nd comp
    3rd comp
    to get the lowest EVGA/60 possible.

    Nikitin and Fayne is the best 2nd comp EVGA/60 possible!
    IN the league.
    if you were to pick a the best 2 player combo in the league.
    Nikitin with Fayne or Mitchell.
    Though would chase the younger guy!
    Good fucking start to the team!

    By comp Ference; Petry; Schultz; Marincin shared 1st/2nd comp
    Our best 1st comp sets were
    Ference-Petry 2.24 EVGA/60 largely with Dubnyk
    Marincin-Petry 2.50 EVGA/60 largely with Bryz/Scrivens
    Ference-J. schultz 3.23 EVGA/60

    Marincin played almost solely with Petry
    Marincin gave up zero goals with J. schultz; Belov; Larsen; Ptter; N. schultz.
    Marincin 16 min with Fraser and injured Ference was a shit show 7.45 EVGA/60

    Ference got dropped down the pecking order and had a jump from
    2.24 EVGA/60 with petry to a 3.50+ shit show.
    Pectoral tear anyone?

    Aulie 10-13
    925/1630 minutes was 1st comp with
    Phanuef 2.21
    Brewer/ Gudasm 1.98 EVGA/60

    So our best D pair combo’s
    Ference-Petry 2.24 EVGA/60
    Nikitin (1.31)- Fayne (1.61)
    Marincin-Schultz 2nd comp 0G in 5 games.
    Aulie

    Aulie under Ramsey might be able to
    slot on 1st with Petry
    2nd with Nikitin or Fayne
    3rd with Marincin or Schultz.

    the two d still on roster i like the least defensively.
    Injured Ference and j. Schultz.

    Capable of PP time:
    Nikitin; Petry; Marincin; Schultz

    Strong PKGA
    Nikitin; Ference; Fayne; Petry; Aulie

    Strong 1st comp EVGA/60 with correct partners
    Nikitin; Fayne; Petry; Ference; Marincin; Aulie

    there are 2 guys on all three lists.
    there are 2 Dmen on only one.
    LAK put an emphasis on Even box protection and Good Goalies inside 25 ft.

    Guess who I think is a complete and utter waste of Conversation!

    It is quite sad that you do not think of the D group as a single GA entity.
    that creates barrier from 25 ft in. the high % shots.
    That partners with varying inside 25ft save % goalies.

    My mantra
    Box protection
    strong Box goalies
    low EVGA/60
    outside 25 ft is dependent on centre play to the box and wing pressure on the point and boards outside the box.

  120. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Marincin-Schultz 2nd comp 0G in 5 games.

    I think I see part of the problem…….

  121. jp says:

    Woodguy:
    rickithebear,

    Marincin-Schultz 2nd comp 0G in 5 games.

    I think I see part of the problem…….

    This might be the entire problem. Damn close to it anyway.

    Ricki: Pinizzotto has an EVP/60 of 2.08 on 2 assists in 6 GP. Should Eakins put him on the first line because he’s the best RW even strength scorer on the team? He’s also 30 years old and has an AHL PPG of 0.47 in 285 games. I think I’ll believe the larger sample size and not expect him to keep up his 2.08 EVP/60.

    I’m pretty sure the corsi crowd would agree with you that goals for and against are more important than shot attempts. And that shot quality matters. And that shot attempts are not a perfect measure of a player. But because goals are relatively rare events they are more subject to luck and random variation. The main advantage of corsi is simply that it uses a larger sample size that’s less affected by luck – nothing else. Corsi is far from perfect too, but imo it’s the best single measure we have at the moment.

  122. oilswell says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: No, the expectations for LD are high. But, they are paced appropriately. He won’t be able to handle 2C for 2-3 years.

    Breaking in to the NHL is hard. Doing so on a second line is really hard. Doing so as a C is near impossible.

    Thanks, OK, fair enough, I have no qualms with this position. I mean, Yakupov was far from a world beater.

    Overall, I gather for some fans it’s not so much that a guy with better than Duschene’s numbers won’t be able to contribute, but rather that the pearls are clutched so tightly because the 2nd C hole is the only one that is going to keep this Oilers team from sipping from the cup. ;)

    I’ve been assuming this is the Oilers year like the Chicago team that squeaked in the playoffs after being out forever, and then built their cup team the summer after. I am already assuming that the Draisaitl I get to learn is next season’s anyway and want this to be a strong development season and the “brain”trust keep enough leeway next year to build the more final team. NO term for a bridge 2C IMO.

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