FALL OF LEON

It’s July 18, 2014. Leon Draisaitl, not yet an Oiler in fact and less than a month from his draft day, can call the realtor any day now. In faraway Detroit, Anthony Mantha, he of the 57-goal season and 13 months older than Draisaitl, is going to have to work like a dog to make that Detroit team.

Is Edmonton’s planning the right thing to do? No! The Oilers just traded away Sam Gagner, a player who didn’t develop as hoped, and their franchise center has endured significant injuries as he grows up in the world’s best men’s league. The Russian Yakupov has had his issues, too.

  • Ken Holland on Anthony Mantha: “If he’s in the lineup it’s because basically we think he’s going to be a top-six forward. I don’t know we’d put him on the fourth line and play him eight minutes. I know Mike Babcock wants to give Mantha some opportunities with Datsyuk, Zetterberg, with our best players. We have eight exhibition games. I know we want him to play 5-6. After we’ve watched him play for three weeks and we get to the end of September or early October, he’s got to take somebody’s job.”

It can be done. Looking at the Detroit depth chart on LW (if we count Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Helm and Weiss as C’s), it looks like Tomas Tatar, Justin Abdelkader, Riley Sheahan, Drew Miller and Joakim Andersson are in the mix. Over on RW, Johan Franzen, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas  Jurco, Dan Cleary and Luke Glendening are available. God that’s a lot of people.

Can Mantha make it? Sure, and it’s pretty damn obvious why Babcock wants a look: goals! Mantha is going to have to earn it, though. Detroit can easily send him down and those late pre-season games expose even the best of the kids knocking on the door.

MEANWHILE BACK AT THE RANCH

Edmonton’s depth chart is set, we’ll just have to wait and see how things go (Edmonton could add a center like Zack Smith to help with the chores).

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  2. Leon Draisaitl*
  3. Boyd Gordon
  4. Mark Arcobello
  5. Anton Lander

First callup? Probably Will Acton.

Stars vs. Barons 4-23-14

Will Acton via Rob Ferguson

I’m a big believer in elevating players when they have proven themselves, and argued with many when Taylor Hall was the subject of conversation in 2010 summer. This year I’m suggesting caution—remember rookie Jumbo Joe?—and the Oilers would be wise to add a significant road block between now and September. A possible scenario for this team? Edmonton trades for Zack Smith, has the option of running him a 4C of Nuge-Arco-Gordon-Smith for 2014-15 while they ho-ho-hold the payments for Leon.

Right? It makes way too much sense! AND, if Leon arrives in training camp with jet skates and proves himself in pre-season, give him nine games. If he’s rocking it after that, then keep him and use Smith/Arco/Lander as utility forwards—heaven knows there will be injuries and maladies galore.

EDMONTON OILERS 2014-15 (PROJECTED)

LEFT WING CENTER RIGHT WING
TAYLOR HALL RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS JORDAN EBERLE
DAVID PERRON LEON DRAISAITL * TEDDY PURCELL
BENOIT POULIOT BOYD GORDON NAIL YAKUPOV
MATT HENDRICKS MARK ARCOBELLO TYLER PITLICK*
  ANTON LANDER IIRO PAKARINEN*
     
     
LEFT DEFENSE RIGHT DEFENSE
MARTIN MARINCIN JEFF PETRY
NIKITA NIKITIN MARK FAYNE
ANDREW FERENCE JUSTIN SCHULTZ
KEITH AULIE  
   
  GOAL  
  BEN SCRIVENS  
  VIKTOR FASTH  

Craig MacTavish should trade for Zack Smith or similar. Ken Holland would do it, and the Oilers should too. Sam Gagner’s leaving could be an opportunity to change the organizational wisdom about elevating these gifted kids no matter what.

It’s the right thing to do.

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94 Responses to "FALL OF LEON"

  1. LadiesloveSmid says:

    If I’m MacT, I’m giving CBJ/NYI a call for Anisimov or Nielsen. Need a guy that can handle the 2nd lines of the west. When we saw Arco’s splits you could see that teams with strong second lines (LA, CHI, OTT, VAN) would cream him. Need a guy that can play adequately against top lines if RNH gets injured, which is an unfortunate but very real possibility. Don’t think Zack Smith’d be a top option unless they’re looking to follow last year’s model of 2 scoring lines, a defensive line, and a non factor line.

    If it takes Perron to land Anisimov/Nielsen, fine. Sign Penner. Him and Pouliot are sort of 2/3LW tweeners so the offence won’t be terrible on the left side. If it takes picks(not named 2015 1st), the trade should be done by dark. Think if this year goes disastrously, we could see an E Kane like conflict with Hall. Going into the season with the worst C depth in the western conference is unacceptable! You have until october MacT

  2. Woodguy says:

    You keep bringing up Zack Smith and I have no idea why you are aiming so low.

    Is it because he wouldn’t cost something dear?

  3. D says:

    From an asset management perspective, I’m betting the Oilers are waiting to decide (on adding another player) until after seeing Draisaitl perform in the pre-season and the first few games. The team can determine if Draisaitl has what it takes, even with minimal team depth at C. As long as they’re making an honest assessment of Draisaitl, and would legitimately send him back to juniors if he doesn’t make the grade, signing a stopgap player can wait until the fall.

  4. Numenius says:

    Would love to get Nielson, but I don’t see how the Isles don’t do everything they can to get rid of Josh Bailey instead (if they have to move someone).

  5. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    You keep bringing up Zack Smith and I have no idea why you are aiming so low.

    Is it because he wouldn’t cost something dear?

    Exactly. I understand the idea of keeping your powder dry, but Smith shouldn’t cost much and if Leon can play you haven’t blown a hole in another part of the roster to get him. He’s been durable too and is 51-52% in the faceoff circle.

    I want a center, but not at the expense of Perron.

  6. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide,

    I imagine Smith wouldn’t be given away. OTT loves that Greening-Smith-Neil line.

    Would you rather trade Klefbom than Perron, maybe? Gotta give to get and gotta get some centre depth to win anything. Smith’s 5v5P/60 hasn’t even been as good as the average 3rd liner. Would you really be okay with three 3rd line centres and a 1st line C that produces at a 3C rate 5v5? Need an Anisimov/Nielsen more than they need a Perron, IMO

  7. Numenius says:

    Has anyone explained why the Oil shouldn’t go for Bailey?

    Now that I look at his numbers, they weren’t bad at all compared with Nielsen, and he might not go for much more than Smith (and should actually be available).

    1.7 ppg (only a little less than Nielsen’s 2.1)
    9.4 CorsiRel (a lot more than Nielsen’s 4.5), despite being about the same place on the Vollman.

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Numenius,

    he’s played LW the past 2 years, I think. That’d be my worry. I’d bet he’s on the block and cheap, just don’t know how he’d do back in the middle

  9. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Lowetide,

    I imagine Smith wouldn’t be given away. OTT loves that Greening-Smith-Neil line.

    Would you rather trade Klefbom than Perron, maybe? Gotta give to get and gotta get some centre depth to win anything. Smith’s 5v5P/60 hasn’t even been as good as the average 3rd liner. Would you really be okay with three 3rd line centres and a 1st line C that produces at a 3C rate 5v5? Need an Anisimov/Nielsen more than they need a Perron, IMO

    The reason you don’t (imo) trade for Anisimov now is that Draisaitl is on the way and EDM will run Nuge-RNH next season as 1-2-3. I don’t think you need to trade Perron or Klefbom to get a bridge player, and that’s what MacT’s looking for imo.

    Oilers have the horses coming, and two of them arrive in the AHL this fall (Yakimov, Khaira). They need a bridge, and some competition.

  10. Marcus Oilerius says:

    I still can’t believe that Mantha slid down to Detroit.

    In retrospect, the 2013 draft was ore buckets deep compared to 2014.

  11. PeOiler says:

    I’ve only seen Mantha in one game where he didn’t score a goal. If his play next year comes within a metric fist-full of how much I have boo’d him over the years, the Red Wings will buy his house for him.
    I still can’t believe he wasn’t drafted until 20th.

  12. steveb12344 says:

    D:
    From an asset management perspective, I’m betting the Oilers are waiting to decide (on adding another player) until after seeing Draisaitl perform in the pre-season and the first few games.The team can determine if Draisaitl has what it takes, even with minimal team depth at C.As long as they’re making an honest assessment of Draisaitl, and would legitimately send him back to juniors if he doesn’t make the grade, signing a stopgap player can wait until the fall.

    This, exactly!

    Leon has already been told that he is going to have a chance to make the team out of training camp. He is spending the summer in Edmonton working out with Oiler staff.

    I bet he walks into training camp like King Leonidis, all bearded and ripped, and ready to take on the whole Persian army.

    He will get his 9 games and imo it is highly unlikely that he doesn’t look like one of the best 3 Centers on the roster. If he does get cut then I think D’s correct that MacT at that point could do something that would be at least as good as Z. Smith et al.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    I still can’t believe that Mantha slid down to Detroit.

    In retrospect, the 2013 draft was ore buckets deep compared to 2014.

    True. Edmonton drafted a better player at No. 188 in 2013 than they took at No. 91 this year, but that was partly idiocy. Detroit traded DOWN to get Mantha, too. Crazy crazy.

  14. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: The reason you don’t (imo) trade for Anisimov now is that Draisaitl is on the way and EDM will run Nuge-RNH next season as 1-2-3. I don’t think you need to trade Perron or Klefbom to get a bridge player, and that’s what MacT’s looking for imo.

    Oilers have the horses coming, and two of them arrive in the AHL this fall (Yakimov, Khaira). They need a bridge, and some competition.

    They’ll run Nuge-RNH? Is that a typo or do you mean RNH’ll play 37 minutes a night?

    The reason you trade for Anisimov is that Draisaitl could be like Johansen/Schenn/Turris and take a number of seasons to come into his own. Is Arco/Smith a suitable/playoff contender calibre 2C for the next 3-4 years? Definitely not, and Hallsy is ready to burn. Won’t wait til he’s 27 to make the playoffs.

    Who knows if Yak2/Khaira turn out? And if they do, great. Flip Anisimov/Nielsen to fill another need down the road

  15. Lowetide says:

    steveb12344: This, exactly!

    Leon has already been told that he is going to have a chance to make the team out of training camp.He is spending the summer in Edmonton working out with Oiler staff.

    I bet he walks into training camp like King Leonidis, all bearded and ripped, and ready to take on the whole Persian army.

    He will get his 9 games and imo it is highly unlikely that he doesn’t look like one of the best 3 Centers on the roster.If he does get cut then I think D’s correct that MacT at that point could do something that would be at least as good as Z. Smith et al.

    That’s awesome. Oilers need a plan B that involves an NHL player.

  16. Marcus Oilerius says:

    LadiesloveSmiddo you mean RNH’ll play 37 minutes a night?

    Well, it is Eakins behind the bench…

  17. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid: They’ll run Nuge-RNH? Is that a typo or do you mean RNH’ll play 37 minutes a night?

    The reason you trade for Anisimov is that Draisaitl could be like Johansen/Schenn/Turris and take a number of seasons to come into his own. Is Arco/Smith a suitable/playoff contender calibre 2C for the next 3-4 years? Definitely not, and Hallsy is ready to burn. Won’t wait til he’s 27 to make the playoffs.

    Who knows if Yak2/Khaira turn out? And if they do, great. Flip Anisimov/Nielsen to fill another need down the road

    Meant Nuge-Draisaitl. I don’t see any reason to rip up other positions in order to chase after a center now. You’re going to overpay because it’s a reach, and Columbus can see you coming. Edmonton has their 2line center and his name is Leon Draisaitl.

    We’re talking about the timing of his arrival now. Nothing more.

  18. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: Meant Nuge-Draisaitl. I don’t see any reason to rip up other positions in order to chase after a center now. You’re going to overpay because it’s a reach, and Columbus can see you coming. Edmonton has their 2line center and his name is Leon Draisaitl.

    We’re talking about the timing of his arrival now. Nothing more.

    If Draisaitl has a Niederreiter/Johansen/(his comparable)Thornton rookie season/early seasons, EDM is hooped. If it takes him a few years to become a top 6 centre, EDM is hooped. Fill that slot for a couple years until LD is hopefully ready, and in the meantime compete for the wildcard spot.

    If NYI sees it as JT-Grabo-Strome/Nelson/Lee or if CBJ sees it as RJo-Dubinsky-Jenner, then you may not have to overpay. Even if you do, losing Perron’d sting but they’d be selling reasonably high after buying low. Smith is just unequivocally not enough to help push EDM forward n keep the young group satisfied

  19. steveb12344 says:

    Lowetide: That’s awesome. Oilers need a plan B that involves an NHL player.

    I don’t disagree at all. It’s pretty clear to me though that this is what MacT is thinking. He’s already shown he has no problem making moves in season, if he needs to.

    Of course I would like to have a 2C that is well clear of Arco to stand in Drei’s way. Though I am not as concerned about it as most.

    When you consider that most forwards drafted in the top 3 never get sent back to Jr. and the ones that do generally have physical maturity issues. I think that there’s a good chance that Leon comes out like a house on fire, and never looks back.

    I don’t remember anyone clamouring for Hall, RNH, or Yak to be sent back after their 9 games. As a matter of fact I remember it being quite the opposite. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if it turns out the same this October as well.

  20. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid: If Draisaitl has a Niederreiter/Johansen/(his comparable)Thornton rookie season/early seasons, EDM is hooped. If it takes him a few years to become a top 6 centre, EDM is hooped. Fill that slot for a couple years until LD is hopefully ready, and in the meantime compete for the wildcard spot.

    If NYI sees it as JT-Grabo-Strome/Nelson/Lee or if CBJ sees it as RJo-Dubinsky-Jenner, then you may not have to overpay. Even if you do, losing Perron’d sting but they’d be selling reasonably high after buying low. Smith is just unequivocally not enough to help push EDM forward n keep the young group satisfied

    You’re suggesting this is the hill to die on this summer. It wasn’t there this summer, and believe me I wanted the Oilers to get a good center. If MacT felt this was the hill to die on, he should have done it earlier. Teams are trying to get down to cap by dealing their Kelly’s and Leddy’s now.

    And I still don’t see this overwhelming need to trade Perron or Klefbom. That was the worry early, but not now.

  21. Lowetide says:

    steveb12344

    I don’t remember anyone clamouring for Hall, RNH, or Yak to be sent back after their 9 games.As a matter of fact I remember it being quite the opposite.It wouldn’t surprise me at all if it turns out the same this October as well.

    Draisaitl’s NHLE’s march in lock step with Nuge’s, so there’s a chance he makes it and has a fine rookie season.

  22. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: You’re suggesting this is the hill to die on this summer. It wasn’t there this summer, and believe me I wanted the Oilers to get a good center. If MacT felt this was the hill to die on, he should have done it earlier. Teams are trying to get down to cap by dealing their Kelly’s and Leddy’s now.

    And I still don’t see this overwhelming need to trade Perron or Klefbom. That was the worry early, but not now.

    Not desperate to trade Perron/Klefbom, just desperate to find a centre. If RNH gets Kassian axed in the face in pre-season, another 4-15-2 start isn’t out of the question. Too much to put on the shoulders of an unproven 18YO. If he comes out gangbusters, great, but they shouldn’t bet on it.

    For some reason I clicked on the G22 GDB, and saw this quote “Taylor Hall: “I’m just so tired of coming in here after games and having to give a reason why we lost” “. Don’t know just how long it can last n counting on Draisaitl could turn out to be disastrous.

    Anyway, I’m off. Good chattin’ ya

  23. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Not desperate to trade Perron/Klefbom, just desperate to find a centre. If RNH gets Kassian axed in the face in pre-season, another 4-15-2 start isn’t out of the question. Too much to put on the shoulders of an unproven 18YO. If he comes out gangbusters, great, but they shouldn’t bet on it.

    For some reason I clicked on the G22 GDB, and saw this quote “Taylor Hall: “I’m just so tired of coming in here after games and having to give a reason why we lost” “. Don’t know just how long it can last n counting on Draisaitl could turn out to be disastrous.

    Anyway, I’m off. Good chattin’ ya

    Yep. Good discussion. Enjoyed it.

  24. Wild Bill Hunter says:

    I think it is erroneous to cherry pick young players who have made the jump straight to the NHL and failed as the equivalents for Draisaitl. There are many players who have made the jump straight into the NHL successfully even though they were not Crosbyesque generational players. (Patrice Bergeron, Sean Monahan, Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, Olli Maata and the list goes on and on) Likewise there are many top 5 picks who have been brought along slowly who have never developed into impact players. (Pavel Brendl, Alexander Volchkov, JASON BONSIGNORE) I don’t it as simple as saying every player will be better off if he is sent back to junior. Obviously some players can make the jump right away and some…will never make that jump.

    The problem is that, at 18, most non-Crosby like players are virtually impossible to project. Some like Bergeron are unexpectedly ready for NHL competition. Others, like Cam Neely, need time to develop.

    The issue with Draisaitl is that he should not be inked into the lineup early. He needs to be carefully evaluated, perhaps given a 9 game audition and then the call needs to be made rationally.

  25. steveb12344 says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I’m pretty sure that if Nuge goes down, a depth chart of Anisimov, Arco, Gordon, Lander wouldn’t look much better. Who knows, maybe Perron can play Center. At least we’d still have him.

  26. gcw_rocks says:

    I don’t see any issue in going after Anisimov. When Gordon is gone, would a trio of Nuge-Leon-Anisimov be so bad? And if it is, could you not trade Anisimov to fill a hole?

  27. nycoil says:

    Numenius,

    Good Gord, Nielsen is currently twice the player Bailey is. Maybe three times. Bailey sucked this year. Badly. The Isles are definitely looking to offload his contract if they get a decent offer. Otherwise they are hoping for a rebound. He is NOT a centre though. He plays on the wing. Hasn’t played centre in a while, and with that depth chart on the Isles now, he is a third line winger.

    I’ve said it every time it has been suggested on this blog, if you’re thinking about him as 2C on the Oilers you will be very sorry. Nielsen is an underrated player. Would be nice to get him. Unfortunately, he is not underrated on the Island and they know they have a good player there. He is a fan favourite.

  28. Melman says:

    If MacT can’t swing a trade for a good 2C is it reasonable to think that (assuming he stays) LD’s season next year will more or less mirror Sean Monahan’s? He can be well protected by vet wingers which will at least be an advantage Nuge didn’t have. Not that that justifies him staying up.

    If you aren’t getting a legit 2C, one player I hadn’t considered before as a possible stopgap is Matt Cullen. I wonder if you could get him without giving up too much to Nash? 1 year left, cap is $3.5, salary is $4 & he’s a steady Eddie durable vet. The offense might not still be there, but he’s a veteran with size who is good on the dot and could push LD down for a year. Nash might want to shed his salary as they have Jokinen, Ribero, Roy, Smith, Fisher & Wilson.

  29. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Exactly. I understand the idea of keeping your powder dry, but Smithshouldn’t cost much and if Leon can play you haven’t blown a hole in another part of the roster to get him. He’s been durable too and is 51-52% in the faceoff circle.

    I want a center, but not at the expense of Perron.

    Very fair.

    I get it now.

    I thought you had let v4.0 take over your player evaluation ability or a while.

  30. nycoil says:

    Melman,

    Speaking of Sean Monahan, can anyone answer for me why he is considered such a stud and the Flames are given credit for drafting him and letting him play in the NHL his draft + 1 year, when the Oilers get criticized so much for rushing players? His box cars were OK and his Corsi rather ugly. Not like he is the second coming.

    And full disclosure: I am not a Monahan hater. I think he is a good player and wanted to draft him if he fell to #7 to be the 2C of the future.

    But one year in, I don’t see how Calgary is getting accolades and contrasted favourably by the media vs. Edmonton, who apparently have ruined Yak, rushed Gagner and RNH, and don’t know what they are doing.

  31. steveb12344 says:

    Melman:
    If MacT can’t swing a trade for a good 2C is it reasonable to think that (assuming he stays) LD’s season next year will more or less mirror Sean Monahan’s?He can be well protected by vet wingers which will at least be an advantage Nuge didn’t have.

    You make a good point. It could very well turn out that LD makes the team in a depth role much like Seguin, Jumbo, etc. Then it may turn out as Arco getting the 9 game audition.

    I think this is a possibility that MacT may want to leave available in case it looks like LD may be ready sooner rather than later.

    I don’t think MacT wants to let go of a Perron, or a Klefbom, unless he absolutely has to.

  32. nycoil says:

    Woodguy,

    The Oilers’ offseason might still be hanging on Sobtoka’s fate? If he wins in arbitration and comes back to the NHL, Armstrong needs a place to send Berglund, and can’t be too picky about the return, though I wonder if he would prefer to deal with someone other than Edmonton after the Perron situation last year. Let someone else take advantage of him, so to speak.

  33. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    Woodguy,

    The Oilers’ offseason might still be hanging on Sobtoka’s fate? If he wins in arbitration and comes back to the NHL, Armstrong needs a place to send Berglund, and can’t be too picky about the return, though I wonder if he would prefer to deal with someone other than Edmonton after the Perron situation last year. Let someone else take advantage of him, so to speak.

    After the draft pick STL got, I’m prepared to mark that trade even. Edmonton got value, but so did the Blues.

  34. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Yes, I agree with you 100% with Barbashev falling that far. But that’s hindsight. And initially the trade looked bad for Armstrong. Blues fans are probably feeling better about it now, but they were not happy before.

    That was what I was trying to say. The perception is not equal to the reality in this case.

  35. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    Lowetide,

    Yes, I agree with you 100% with Barbashev falling that far. But that’s hindsight. And initially the trade looked bad for Armstrong. Blues fans are probably feeling better about it now, but they were not happy before.

    That was what I was trying to say. The perception is not equal to the reality in this case.

    Yep. Agree.

  36. Bank Shot says:

    gcw_rocks:
    I don’t see any issue in going after Anisimov.When Gordon is gone, would a trio of Nuge-Leon-Anisimov be so bad? And if it is, could you not trade Anisimov to fill a hole?

    Exactly. I’ve never seen any team complaining about too much center depth. You could even have Draisaitl spend a bunch of time on the wing in his first couple NHL seasons. It didn’t hurt Crosby to start there. Seguin is looking ok. San Jose’s guys are all doing alright.

    Edmonton failing to address positions of weakness because the next great hope is coming around the bend is a big part of why they have been a terrible hockey club for the better part of a decade.

    Fill the holes, address the needs, and then look to move out players if you have TOO MUCH depth later, but that realistically isn’t going to be a problem with this management group in charge.

  37. VanOil says:

    What Oilers should of done, if they wanted to go the 4C Zack Smith route, was to have signed Malhotra. But he was obviously way to expensive.

    I am resigned to the fact it will be a Zack Smyth type solution if there is a solution at all. I would ship out Schultz if the return was C depth for a generation (Couturier or Nelson) MacT’s verbal seems to rule this out though.

    Maybe MacT has a plan and is just driving down Draisaitl’s CHL rights so the Oil King’s can pick them up for a song like Portland did with Dumba last year.

  38. D says:

    steveb12344,

    Lowetide,

    Call me hopelessly optimistic, but I believe the Edmonton Oilers have all the pieces already within their system to become a championship team. The #2 C the team needs – his name is Draisaitl. That stud D everyone is looking for – it’s one of the names already on the roster or bubbling under in OKC. If I’m right, then it’s really a question of time rather than one of acquisition.

    My bet is MacT is taking that viewpoint, which explains the hesitancy to part with assets (especially if there is a risk that it will eventually backfire). Could you imagine what would happen to MacT’s reputation if Marincin ends up anywhere as good as Chara, and is traded before Edmonton finds out?

  39. nycoil says:

    Woah. CFL live on ESPN2 tonight. When did that happen? Go TiCats (not that I care but beat Calgary!)

  40. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    Woah. CFL live on ESPN2 tonight. When did that happen? Go TiCats (not that I care but beat Calgary!)

    Stamps are playing like garbage so far

  41. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Sure are! I was just shocked to turn on the TV and see the CFL on live here. I’m 100% certain the American TV audience wondered what in the hell was going on when Hamilton got that single point right off the bat.

  42. supernova says:

    nycoil:
    Lowetide,

    Yes, I agree with you 100% with Barbashev falling that far. But that’s hindsight. And initially the trade looked bad for Armstrong. Blues fans are probably feeling better about it now, but they were not happy before.

    That was what I was trying to say. The perception is not equal to the reality in this case.

    Lowetide,

    nycoil,

    I think you guys are overvaluing Barbashev, not saying he is a bad pick but he has done nothing and even if he turns into a Hall of Famer you do that trade of a Perron for Paajarvi & a 2 every day.

    The trade wasn’t Barbashev and MPS. It was a pick, that pick could be anyone. The Blues were fortunate a high rated player fell to them, but that can’t be an even trade at this point.

    Points totals in the NHL with games played and what the players are turned into ( future trades) should be the valuation.

    It could be 2 or 3 more years and MPS and Barbs haven’t hit the same production as Perron did in year 1.

    Does Neuiwendyk for Iginla equal a fair trade if Dallas won the cup?

  43. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    Lowetide,

    Sure are! I was just shocked to turn on the TV and see the CFL on live here. I’m 100% certain the American TV audience wondered what in the hell was going on when Hamilton got that single point right off the bat.

    lol. Yeah, the rules take awhile. I hope it finds an audience, love my little football league.

  44. maudite says:

    Litmus test time:

    Is the Kool-Aid too:

    acidic (old, crusty and toxic)

    or

    basic (while young and fresh it’s really weak and not mixed proper)

    The Oiler’s have long been excellent salesmen of koolaid the past 10 years, but they are terrible at making it. Eventually repeat business has to dry up if they keep screwing it up.

  45. Captain Smarmy says:

    I love Leon in spite of playing for the dirt bag Raiders. Maybe he’s so good I love him regardless of the Raiders.

    Go Oilers.

  46. Numenius says:

    nycoil:
    Numenius,

    Good Gord, Nielsen is currently twice the player Bailey is. Maybe three times. Bailey sucked this year. Badly. The Isles are definitely looking to offload his contract if they get a decent offer. Otherwise they are hoping for a rebound. He is NOT a centre though. He plays on the wing. Hasn’t played centre in a while, and with that depth chart on the Isles now, he is a third line winger.

    I’ve said it every time it has been suggested on this blog, if you’re thinking about him as 2C on the Oilers you will be very sorry. Nielsen is an underrated player. Would be nice to get him. Unfortunately, he is not underrated on the Island and they know they have a good player there. He is a fan favourite.

    I was under the impression myself that Bailey sucked this year. But when I looked at the numbers I couldn’t see it. Am I missing something? Can you point to any numbers to confirm?

    Point taken that he’s not a C anymore and so isn’t an option for the Oilers on that count. I hadn’t remembered that.

  47. Numenius says:

    LT, I hope and pray the double entendre of your title is not prescient.

  48. nycoil says:

    supernova,

    That, to me is the quintessential win-win trade. And that’s what LT and I are saying about the probable outcome of the Perron trade. St Louis won cap space and a serviceable bottom 6 winger and a potential top 6 player as well. So is calling the trade a draw wrong?

  49. nycoil says:

    Numenius,

    Be right back with an article from an Isles blog I read sometimes.
    http://islesnation.net/2014/01/16/what-to-do-with-bailey/

    The extraskater stuff I presume you have access to and that’s tobwhat you are referring. But 30+ games straight without scoring is pretty bad for a guy who was expected to eventually be the wing on the Tavares line but got passed like a brick house by Brock Nelson, Strome, Okposo. And worst part was Snow traded down to draft him then signed him to that potential-based deal. Now they’ve got to hope he finally fulfills it cause he has minimal value around the league right now. Isles fans want to run him out of the Island.

  50. Stanley 2018 says:

    All things considered, I say don’t trade anything but lower draft picks for a Center. If MacT can’t get anything I’m ok with it. Oilers aren’t going to be a playoff team this season, and the only thing worse than that is no playoffs AND a mediocre mid-to-late-round draft pick.
    I definitely don’t want another fiasco like last year, but I’d rather have one more good draft followed by a long run of success than fight til April for nothing. Oilers farm system needs to be stocked up with Forwards if they’re going to have organisational depth, anyway.

  51. smellyglove says:

    nycoil:
    Melman,

    Speaking of Sean Monahan, can anyone answer for me why he is considered such a stud and the Flames are given credit for drafting him and letting him play in the NHL his draft + 1 year, when the Oilers get criticized so much for rushing players? His box cars were OK and his Corsi rather ugly. Not like he is the second coming.

    And full disclosure: I am not a Monahan hater. I think he is a good player and wanted to draft him if he fell to #7 to be the 2C of the future.

    But one year in, I don’t see how Calgary is getting accolades and contrasted favourably by the media vs. Edmonton, who apparently have ruined Yak, rushed Gagner and RNH, and don’t know what they are doing.

    Well, while it’s quite possible he is overrated, he is the guy I really wanted at #7 (Horvat was my 2nd choice and Nurse was my 3rd choice).

    Two #1 overalls, the Nuge and Yak-attack, have four seasons between them and nary a 20+ goal season. Monahan has a 22G season (albeit, blessed with the luck of the Irish… but not a tonne of ice time and no Hall).

  52. nycoil says:

    smellyglove,

    Yes, I wrote above I wanted him, too.
    I was just wondering why he is held up as a great pick and fine to throw in the deep end but the Oilers kids- they’ve all been rushed or ruined apparently, if you listen to many people.

  53. Bank Shot says:

    nycoil:
    smellyglove,

    Yes, I wrote above I wanted him, too.
    I was just wondering why he is held up as a great pick and fine to throw in the deep end but the Oilers kids- they’ve all been rushed or ruined apparently, if you listen to many people.

    It’s perception. Like people are still convinced the Oilers are a good offensive team when I don;t think they have been top half of the league in forever and a day,

    Monahan’s shooting % and even strength scoring rates were pretty high last year. I expect that to drop some next year and its likely he won;t show much improvement in boxcars IMO.

    Yakupov on the other hand,

    9% shooting percentage. 200 out of 262 forwards playing over 11 ES minutes a game in ES shooting %. Only 7.36.

    In PP% Yakupov was 137 out of 146 forwards with more than 2 minutes of PP time per 60.

    The kid should really be able to hit 50+ points this season if he gets any kind of breaks. Hopefully he works hard to clean up his atrocious play without the puck so he gets some more ice time as well.

  54. Numenius says:

    nycoil: Be right back with an article from an Isles blog I read sometimes.
    http://islesnation.net/2014/01/16/what-to-do-with-bailey/

    Thanks for that. Bailey’s numbers do look bad in the article, but that was only halfway through the year and I wonder if it characterizes him unreasonably badly. Some reasons:

    1) Bailey’s scoring picked up after the article was written (from 43 4-11-15 to 77 8-30-38 total), so he had a better second half of the season.

    2) He played some of the toughest minutes on the team in the shutdown quadrant along with Nielsen, and had better CorsiRel and CorsiON than Nielsen.

    3) His WOWY suggests that he was far from a third wheel to his linemates, and that he may often have been driving the bus.

    Nielsen (C for 2/3 of Bailey’s TOI)
    with Bailey: 45.8 GF%, 51.6 CF%, without Bailey: 37.8 GF% and 48.1 CF%, Bailey apart: 53.3 GF%, 53.3 CF%

    Nelson (C for 1/4 of Bailey’s TOI)
    with Bailey: 52.6 GF%, 57.4% CF%, without Bailey: 37.8 GF%, 51.6 CF%, Bailey apart: 47.5 GF%, 50.7 CF%

    These numbers suggests that Nielsen and Nelson both played better with Bailey than without him, and quite drastically when it comes to GF%, which suggests that Bailey was strongly contributing on both those lines and possibly driving the bus. It also suggests that Bailey played better without Nielsen and better with Nelson, which suggests that Bailey and Nelson had much better chemistry than Bailey and Nielsen.

    4) Bailey had an unusually bad SH% (8.2%!) for him, and that would account for some of his lack of goal production.

    Not sure what to think. These numbers suggest that Bailey played a lot better last season than the eye could see or the boxcars suggest. He was inconsistent though. The first half of the year was rough and the second half got much better.

  55. oilswell says:

    Wait, so it is Detroit, who finished 17th in goal differential (-8), and who received endless free agent signings in the past, whom the Oilers should pattern themselves after still? And not an ascendent team like Colorado (+30 goal differential)?

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    oilswell:
    Wait, so it is Detroit, who finished 17th in goal differential (-8), and who received endless free agent signings in the past, whom the Oilers should pattern themselves after still? And not an ascendent team like Colorado (+30 goal differential)?

    I love sarcasm!

  57. nycoil says:

    Numenius,

    Nice analysis. I had seen his Vollman, which looked pretty decent. I guess he may turn out to be a decent shutdown winger but even if he improves his S% to say 11% with so few shots taken he isn’t going to score enough to move on up in a top 6 role. That and Nielsen in the Eastbis regarded as a very underrated 2-way C. I see the WOWY you posted but I wonder if Bailey had to slide over to C how he would do.

    Anyhow I said in a previous thread if we didn’t get Pouliot and Purcell already I’d be OK with buying low on Bailey, but if he is the 2C solution I smell trouble.

    One more link, more recent for you.
    http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2014/6/18/5817900/new-york-islanders-top-25-not-prospect-josh-bailey-bust-boom

  58. Woodguy says:

    oilswell:
    Wait, so it is Detroit, who finished 17th in goal differential (-8), and who received endless free agent signings in the past, whom the Oilers should pattern themselves after still? And not an ascendent team like Colorado (+30 goal differential)?

    All you need to do to be COL is have your career .912 goalie put up a .927 and you’re there.

  59. Woodguy says:

    nycoil:
    Melman,

    Speaking of Sean Monahan, can anyone answer for me why he is considered such a stud and the Flames are given credit for drafting him and letting him play in the NHL his draft + 1 year, when the Oilers get criticized so much for rushing players? His box cars were OK and his Corsi rather ugly. Not like he is the second coming.

    And full disclosure: I am not a Monahan hater. I think he is a good player and wanted to draft him if he fell to #7 to be the 2C of the future.

    But one year in, I don’t see how Calgary is getting accolades and contrasted favourably by the media vs. Edmonton, who apparently have ruined Yak, rushed Gagner and RNH, and don’t know what they are doing.

    Because people are not smart about this type of stuff.

    Monahan’s fancystats this year:

    5v5 Corsi
    -12.29 ranked 9/13 on CAL

    5v5 RelCor
    -8.0 ranked 10/13 on CAL (only higher than Bouma, Wesgarth and McGrattan)

    CorQC
    11/13 – was sheltered as much as possible

    That is not a good season for anyone.

    Its how you hide a kid in the NHL, but the results are predictable.

    I’d expect close to the same from DrySaddle if he sticks this year.

    Playing the most sheltered comp and losing the corsi battle.

  60. nycoil says:

    Woodguy,

    Thank you. So I’m not alone in thinking the main stream perception is wrong. Amazing how much vitriol is directed Edmonton’s way these days. I wonder why that is? Because management stated they would rebuild and that is seen as “tanking?”

  61. Woodguy says:

    Wild Bill Hunter,

    There are many players who have made the jump straight into the NHL successfully even though they were not Crosbyesque generational players. (Patrice Bergeron, Sean Monahan, Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, Olli Maata and the list goes on and on

    We don’t have the fancy stats for Bergeron, so I’ll skip him.

    I already did Monahan above. To call his season a success it to not understand he got his head kicked in while scoring a bit at the beginning.

    Ryan O’Reilly Rookie Year
    5v5 Corsi
    -13.65 ranked 11/14

    5v5 RelCor
    -3.6 ranked 11/14

    CorQC
    9/14 playing lower mid level comp

    5v5 pts/60
    1.37 ranked 9/14

    I wouldn’t call that a successful season. Typical rookie.

    David Perron

    5v5 Corsi
    +.09 ranked 4/13

    5v5 RelCor
    +9.7 ranked 2/13

    5v5 CorQC
    8/13 – mid level comp

    5v5 pts60
    1.95 ranked 4/13

    Now Perron looks like a successful season. Nice numbers across the board.

    Let’s see who he played with:

    Andy McDonald
    Brad Boyes
    Lee Stepniak
    Keith Tkachuk

    Pretty solid players to broken in with.

    Its much easier to slot a rookie winger with a vet C than expect a rookie C to carry a line.

    In terms of DrySaddle, if they are going to play him, I’d have him play 3C/LW with Arco on his line and trade off with Arco as to who is playing C if the going gets rough.

    CBJ broke Jenner in on the wing.

    Lots of NHL C’s get broken in on the wing, its much, much, much easier.

    If you run Arco/DrySaddle as 3LW/C, then you can trade Perron for Anisimov for a 2C.

    I agree with the other posters who say making the team better immediately is more important than the 2 remaining years on Perron’s contract and I agree with that.

    In order to not ice a gong show at C this year the Oilers will have to trade.

    I think players like Zach Smith don’t add enough value to bother trading for and won’t make the team materially better, even if you give up nothing for him.

    C is too important.

    2C is far to important to go stop gap if you want to be better this year.

    DrySaddle is the next 2C and two years of apprenticeship should be good.

    Anisimov and Perron both have 2 years left on their deals.

  62. RexLibris says:

    nycoil:
    Melman,

    Speaking of Sean Monahan, can anyone answer for me why he is considered such a stud and the Flames are given credit for drafting him and letting him play in the NHL his draft + 1 year, when the Oilers get criticized so much for rushing players? His box cars were OK and his Corsi rather ugly. Not like he is the second coming.

    And full disclosure: I am not a Monahan hater. I think he is a good player and wanted to draft him if he fell to #7 to be the 2C of the future.

    But one year in, I don’t see how Calgary is getting accolades and contrasted favourably by the media vs. Edmonton, who apparently have ruined Yak, rushed Gagner and RNH, and don’t know what they are doing.

    Monahan projects to be a very good C. His season last year was, as has been mentioned, buoyed by some unsustainable metrics. His sh% was 15.7% iirc, and his ZS were very favourable, +7.8 ZS rel, playing behind Backlund and Stajan. HIs most common linemates were Colborne and Hudler so he wasn’t exactly left to do all the heavy lifting himself.

    His ES page: http://www.extraskater.com/player/1160/sean-monahan#usage

    It boils down to appearances. Monahan had a great year, he’s one young man amongst a largely veteran squad and everyone raved about the Flames’ work ethic last season, thus the “high tide floats all boats” attitude. Meanwhile because the Oilers have struggled for so many seasons all their prospects have been tarred with the same brush.

    If Monahan has a regression this season on his sh% and is exposed for his developing defensive play it is likely he won’t suffer the same kind of accusations that Yakupov did in his sophomore season. You can chalk it up to whatever kind of bias you prefer (market, nationality, personality, etc).

    I had a very interesting conversation last night over at FN testing the assertion that the Flames are farther ahead in their rebuild than the Oilers. Summation: no, they are not.

  63. Woodguy says:

    nycoil:
    Woodguy,

    Thank you. So I’m not alone in thinking the main stream perception is wrong. Amazing how much vitriol is directed Edmonton’s way these days. I wonder why that is? Because management stated they would rebuild and that is seen as “tanking?”

    It takes the MSM 3-4 years to catch up .

    We were throwing vitrol at Oilers management for 5-6 years now.

    Now things are looking up and the Oilers will be much better this year and the MSM will be surprised.

    If MacT gets a real 2C, they will be much, much better.

  64. godot10 says:

    nycoil:
    Lowetide,

    Yes, I agree with you 100% with Barbashev falling that far. But that’s hindsight. And initially the trade looked bad for Armstrong. Blues fans are probably feeling better about it now, but they were not happy before.

    That was what I was trying to say. The perception is not equal to the reality in this case.

    The trade was NEVER bad for St. Louis. They didn’t have the cap room for Perron. They were loaded with cheaper younger equal players in Schwartz and Tarasenko. They maintained the value of the asset by shifting the production from that asset into the future (Paajarvi and the 2nd).

    In a hard cap world, a key component of managing is turning surplus assets in the present into future assets.

    So many in Oilerland have no memory of what a team with surplus assets looks like.

  65. Woodguy says:

    If the Oilers don’t get a good competent 2C (Anisimov or better) while waiting for DrySaddle to become a NHL player then the OIlers will waste another 2 years of Hall.

    The next 2 years are Hall’s 23 and 24 year old years and for big time scorers these are usually the best years in terms of production.

    I understand wanting to keep players like Perron around, but the cost is too dear to not shore up 2C with a good player.

  66. nycoil says:

    godot10,

    In a subsequent post, I called it a win-win for the same reason you stated.
    I also deliberately used the words, “looked bad,” not “was bad.”
    When Paajarvi was a healthy scratch a lot and Hitchcock commented on the Edmonton factor, it didn’t LOOK like full value for the Blues and Blues fans were upset.

  67. godot10 says:

    Anisimov isn’t going to be available until Johanssen signs. He gives the Blue Jackets a smidgeon of leverage in the negotiations with Johanssen.

    There are lots of cap stressed teams needing to dump players. San Jose is still hoping to restructure.

    If Lecavalier, Thornton, Marleau, or Sharp moves, the centre market is going to become interesting again this summer, and the deck chairs will be rearranged.

    Patience is required.

  68. nycoil says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree. Is Anisimov really actually available though? Jackets seem happy with him. Would love to know what MacT’s plan is at this point.

  69. Woodguy says:

    Monahan also had 11pts in his first 12 games.

    Everything was going in.

    Then he had 23pts in his next 63 games.

    Rookie.

  70. Woodguy says:

    nycoil:
    Woodguy,

    I agree. Is Anisimov really actually available though? Jackets seem happy with him. Would love to know what MacT’s plan is at this point.

    No idea, but CBJ needs scoring from the wings.

    If they want to move Jenner to C that would probably make him available.

    If its not Anisimov its someone like him or better.

  71. Hammers says:

    No news yet on Leon signing a contract and as contracts go what about Schultz

  72. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Anisimov isn’t going to be available until Johanssen signs.He gives the Blue Jackets a smidgeon of leverage in the negotiations with Johanssen.

    There are lots of cap stressed teams needing to dump players.San Jose is still hoping to restructure.

    If Lecavalier, Thornton, Marleau, or Sharp moves, the centre market is going to become interesting again this summer, and the deck chairs will be rearranged.

    Patience is required.

    Agreed on all that.

    In fact, here’s a quote from a reporter at the Blackhawks conference that just went on:

    GM Stan Bowman said it may not be until training camp when #Blackhawks make a move to get under the salary cap.

    CHI *has* to make a move to get under the cap.

    He doesn’t seem to be in a hurry.

    Until all the arbitrations are done and everyone in the NHL has had their vacation I don’t think there will be a lot of movement.

    We wait.

  73. godot10 says:

    The Schultz camp is waiting for Kulikov and Subban and Gardiner to sign and reset the market. Kulikov, arguably, got an awful lot for his last RFA years. The OIlers and Schultz, because Schultz didn’t file for arbitration, may be close on a bridge deal, but far apart on a long term deal, and both sides may be waiting to see what the other free agents get to see if it closes the gap between the sides on a long term tdeal.

    One could argue Kulikov’s deal is $3.5,$3.5, $6, and that UFA years for 2nd pairing D are going to start at $6 million, not $5 million.

    Petry knew he was going to UFA status next summer, so signing quickly, for less than his value was one year was no big deal. MacT made a mistake.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    No news yet on Leon signing a contract and as contracts go what about Schultz

    Leon’s signing is only a matter of time. Jason Gregor had an item on him yesterday, he’s staying in town to train and is up to 215 pounds.

  75. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Woodguy: If the Oilers don’t get a good competent 2C (Anisimov or better) while waiting for DrySaddle to become a NHL player then the OIlers will waste another 2 years of Hall.
    The next 2 years are Hall’s 23 and 24 year old years and for big time scorers these are usually the best years in terms of production.
    I understand wanting to keep players like Perron around, but the cost is too dear to not shore up 2C with a good player.

    Agreed that the Oilers can’t leave a hole at C, but I’m still wondering why Arco isn’t a great stopgap. The Oilers should be targeting an ideal 3rd C.

    PVP Line: Must go toe to toe with the big boys
    2 Line: Succeed in situations left after PVP and tough opp line are matched
    Soft Mins Line: Weak opps/ off ZS. Kill the soft parade, move the needle in the right direction.
    Shutdown Line: Tough comp, killer ZS. Neutralize the threats and send it up ice.

    PVP: Nuge line should do very well if given half decent ZS by rest of team
    2 Line: Gagner was the weak link. Arco seemed fine and with 2 wingers should be adequate
    Soft Mins: Only one project at a time: Yak goes here to learn better hockey.
    Shutdown: Gordon with help should be fine.

    A solid Soft mins C leaves the Oilers with 3 lines that should succeed and the 2 line with Arco which won’t thrive but should survive.

  76. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Holy beast. I was trying to look up Arnott’s weight his rookie year and came across this article by you. The card lists him at 195 to start his sophomore year. Wow. Leon has 20lbs on him already.
    http://oilersnation.com/2013/3/29/nation-profile-jason-arnott

  77. speeds says:

    I know many aren’t fans of EDM’s C depth, or how proven it is, but independent of that, what do people think the odds are that:

    (a) Arco is a playoff quality 2C next year?

    (b) LD is a playoff quality 3/4C next year?

  78. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    Lowetide,

    Holy beast. I was trying to look up Arnott’s weight his rookie year and came across this article by you. The card lists him at 195 to start his sophomore year. Wow. Leon has 20lbs on him already.
    http://oilersnation.com/2013/3/29/nation-profile-jason-arnott

    Wow. That’s a lot! Arnott was a splendid rookie, God I loved watching him.

  79. Woodguy says:

    till_horcoff_is_coach,

    Agreed that the Oilers can’t leave a hole at C, but I’m still wondering why Arco isn’t a great stopgap. The Oilers should be targeting an ideal 3rd C.

    The more I think about it the more I want Arco and DrySaddle together on the 3rd line.

    Arco starts at C while DS gets comfortable with NHL speed at LW.

    DS starts to dabble at C as he gets comfortable.

    Arco is there to take over C if DS starts to struggle.

    To put DS at 3C and have no release valve or help is not a good plan.

    He’ll get buried at some point and its better to have a plan to move him to wing to regain some confidence than have him struggle and stay at 3C

  80. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    I know many aren’t fans of EDM’s C depth, or how proven it is, but independent of that, what do people think the odds are that:

    (a) Arco is a playoff quality 2C next year?

    (b) LD is a playoff quality 3/4C next year?

    No and no, which is why they need to add.

    See my post above on how to use DS and Arco.

  81. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    I know many aren’t fans of EDM’s C depth, or how proven it is, but independent of that, what do people think the odds are that:

    (a) Arco is a playoff quality 2C next year?

    (b) LD is a playoff quality 3/4C next year?

    No on both. I also suspect the Oilers acquire a center before the season, and he could be a better fit. I’m hopeful that center is a better defensive center than offensive one, allowing Draisaitl that soft minutes offensive role.

  82. nycoil says:

    Woodguy,

    I know it is counterintuitive to use the Panthers and Islanders’ recent history as a model for development, but the last few years they have been introducing lottery pick centres into the league on the wing. And I can’t help but agree that this is probably the way to go. There is just too much to put on the shoulders of an 18yr old rookie as it is without adding the responsibility of face-offs against grizzled vets with lots of tricks, being below the puck all the time when you don’t have it, etc.

    I was going to say, “short of generational talents like Crosby, they should all start on the wing in the NHL,” but looking at Crosby’s rookie season, the boxcars are great but face-offs, etc., suggest maybe he, too, could have been better his first season as a winger.

    So let’s say you run:
    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    2C with some experience-Pouliot-Yakupov
    Arco-Draisaitl-Purcell
    Gordon-Lander-Hendricks

    Perron is, unfortunately, the piece going out to get the 2C, I think. I tried the various combinations with the following wingers for the top 9: Hall, Eberle, Purcell, Pouliot Yakupov, Draisaitl, Perron. One too many. But when Draisaitl is ready to shift over to C in a year or two, it’s going to create another hole on the wing.

  83. gd says:

    The more I look, the more the most obvious trade would be either Perron for Anisimov or for Sutter.

    Jarmo drafted Perron. The thing with Cbus is they should be in a win now mode, what with how weak the East is, yet they have a weird roster of most of their better players like Horton, Hartnell, Dubinsky, Wiz, and Tyutin in their post prime and a bunch of young up and comers like RyJo, Jenner and Murray and really only Johnson in his prime. It seems like scoring is a bigger need for them than size and two way play once RyJo is resigned.

    Sutter seems like redundant to Goc at his expected price point. I think Maata is out for a couple of months and I’ve there’s concern with Dupuis coming back so it seems like they could have a huge need for either Perron or Petry.

    My gut says a draft pick for either Kelly or Bailey is there if neither Anisimov or Sutter happen.

  84. Woodguy says:

    nycoil:
    Woodguy,

    I know it is counterintuitive to use the Panthers and Islanders’ recent history as a model for development, but the last few years they have been introducing lottery pick centres into the league on the wing. And I can’t help but agree that this is probably the way to go. There is just too much to put on the shoulders of an 18yr old rookie as it is without adding the responsibility of face-offs against grizzled vets with lots of tricks, being below the puck all the time when you don’t have it, etc.

    I was going to say, “short of generational talents like Crosby, they should all start on the wing in the NHL,” but looking at Crosby’s rookie season, the boxcars are great but face-offs, etc., suggest maybe he, too, could have been better his first season as a winger.

    So let’s say you run:
    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    2C with some experience-Pouliot-Yakupov
    Arco-Draisaitl-Purcell
    Gordon-Lander-Hendricks

    Perron is, unfortunately, the piece going out to get the 2C, I think. I tried the various combinations with the following wingers for the top 9: Hall, Eberle, Purcell, Pouliot Yakupov, Draisaitl, Perron. One too many. But when Draisaitl is ready to shift over to C in a year or two, it’s going to create another hole on the wing.

    That’s exactly what I was thinking.

    That’s also the lines I had sketched out in my head.

    Great minds and all….

  85. Woodguy says:

    gd:
    The more I look, the more the most obvious trade would be eitherPerron for Anisimov or for Sutter.

    Jarmo drafted Perron. The thing with Cbus is they should be in a win nowmode,whatwith how weak the East is, yet they have a weird roster of most of their better players like Horton, Hartnell, Dubinsky, Wiz, and Tyutin in their post prime and a bunch of young up and comers like RyJo, Jenner and Murray and really only Johnson in his prime. It seems like scoring is a bigger needfor them than size and two way play once RyJo is resigned.

    Sutter seems like redundant to Goc at his expected price point. I think Maata is out for a couple of months and I’ve there’s concern with Dupuis coming back so it seems like they could have a huge need for either Perron or Petry.

    My gut says a draft pick for either Kelly or Bailey is there if neither Anisimovor Sutter happen.

    Brandon Sutter’s relative corsi through his career:

    2008-2009 Season CAR -15.1
    2009-2010 Season CAR -8.5
    2010-2011 Season CAR -8
    2011-2012 Season CAR -6.6
    2012-2013 Season PIT -19.6
    2013-2014 Season PIT -14.9

    That’s pretty awful.

    Even taking into account who he plays behind in PIT, its pretty gross.

    Pass.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Are we working off a published rumor of Perron for Anisimov?

  87. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    No, sorry. Purely speculation/throwing stuff at the wall based on Woodguy’s suggestion that Draisaitl be broken in on Arco’s wing, combined with his suggestion to trade for a player of Anisimov’s type and speculating at what that would cost that would meet CBJ’s needs. I have not seen any published rumors of the sort at all.

    Sorry if it was not clear.

  88. nycoil says:

    I haven’t seen this discussed yet, but Derrick Brassard may shake loose. He fits in the same quadrant on the Vollman Sledgehammer as his former line mate Pouliot.

    His contract demands are high, it seems. I wonder if he could be persuaded on term to take the same contract at Pouliot, given the massively better tax advantage in Alberta.

    http://www.rantsports.com/nhl/2014/07/17/new-york-rangers-should-consider-trading-derick-brassard/

  89. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    Lowetide,

    No, sorry. Purely speculation/throwing stuff at the wall based on Woodguy’s suggestion that Draisaitl be broken in on Arco’s wing, combined with his suggestion to trade for a player of Anisimov’s type and speculating at what that would cost that would meet CBJ’s needs. I have not seen any published rumors of the sort at all.

    Sorry if it was not clear.

    No worries, I’d love to see a player the magnitude of Anisimov come in here. I don’t know that it would happen this late though, and would be unhappy if Perron was the pricetag

  90. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Are we working off a published rumor of Perron for Anisimov?

    No.

  91. Woodguy says:

    nycoil:
    I haven’t seen this discussed yet, but Derrick Brassard may shake loose. He fits in the same quadrant on the Vollman Sledgehammer as his former line mate Pouliot.

    His contract demands are high, it seems. I wonder if he could be persuaded on term to take the same contract at Pouliot, given the massively better tax advantage in Alberta.

    http://www.rantsports.com/nhl/2014/07/17/new-york-rangers-should-consider-trading-derick-brassard/

    From the piece:

    So, my idea is for the Rangers to package Brassard, defenseman John Moore, plus a prospect and/or pick for a first-line center, having the trading team eat some salary and move Derek Stepan from the first to the second line.

    So the writer spends most of his time saying Brassard isn’t good enough to be a 2C, then suggests that adding Moore (6-7 Dman) and prospect and BAM! you get a first line center.

    Then he adds the team eats some of the 1C’s salary.

    EA sports would laugh at that.

  92. nycoil says:

    Woodguy,

    I know, I know. I wasn’t endorsing his fantasy land plan at the end. I was just citing a reference to the impasse in contract negotiations.

    Brassard seemed a decent 2C last year based on advanced stats and eye test. Not a big scorer, but OK. I don’t think he is worth $5M per, but suspect he is in fact looking at his buddy Pouliot’s deal as a benchmark. One more way the Oilers “won” by inflating the market a bit on certain players.

    I don’t know what would go the other way, but cost should be less than Anisimov based on the fact the Rangers do need some cap flexibility.

    Also a valid question is whether Brassard can handle a 2C role back in the West effectively.

  93. Woodguy says:

    nycoil: Also a valid question is whether Brassard can handle a 2C role back in the West effectively.

    Also a valid question is whether Brassard can handle a 2C role back in the West effectively.

    That’s the question and I don’t think the evidence is there, especially given his contract demands.

    Basically he’s putting up seasons like Perrault and in the same spot. (except Perrault was in the WC)

    Perrault just got $3MM x 3 years from the Jets.

  94. Bank Shot says:

    nycoil: Woodguy, I know it is counterintuitive to use the Panthers and Islanders’ recent history as a model for development, but the last few years they have been introducing lottery pick centres into the league on the wing. And I can’t help but agree that this is probably the way to go. There is just too much to put on the shoulders of an 18yr old rookie as it is without adding the responsibility of face-offs against grizzled vets with lots of tricks, being below the puck all the time when you don’t have it, etc.I was going to say, “short of generational talents like Crosby, they should all start on the wing in the NHL,” but looking at Crosby’s rookie season, the boxcars are great but face-offs, etc., suggest maybe he, too, could have been better his first season as a winger.So let’s say you run:RNH-Hall-Eberle2C with some experience-Pouliot-YakupovArco-Draisaitl-PurcellGordon-Lander-HendricksPerron is, unfortunately, the piece going out to get the 2C, I think. I tried the various combinations with the following wingers for the top 9: Hall, Eberle, Purcell, Pouliot Yakupov, Draisaitl, Perron. One too many. But when Draisaitl is ready to shift over to C in a year or two, it’s going to create another hole on the wing.

    Crosby actually did start on the wing, with Mario as his center. I beleive it only last 20-30 games, and Crosby obviously excelled in the middle as well, but it just makes sense to start a young rookie center on the wing.

    It makes even more sense to hold back Draisaitl until next season so he has a better chance to outperform his entry level contract. It didn’t make sense for Hall, but it makes all the snese in the world now, when the Oilers will actually need that cap space, and could possibly make some noise in the next 3-4 years if the right moves are made.

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