GETTING BETTER ALL THE TIME

It’s almost impossible to believe the Edmonton Oilers called out Taylor Hall’s name four years ago. Hall was followed by baby Nuge and then Yak City, Darnell Nurse and now Draisaitl and this organization is sitting on Fort Knox in terms of youngsters under 23. Since the procurement season began, Craig MacTavish has added a lot of pieces, and we haven’t really had a chance to take it all in. The depth is better, the quality is better, the experience is more abundant. However, is this a case of the warmth of the sun and the long stretch of offseason clouding our minds?

GOAL

  1. Ben Scrivens 40GP, 2.55 .922
  2. Viktor Fasth 12GP, 2.82 .903
  3. Richard Bachman 3GP, 3.02 .916
  4. Laurent Brossoit 10GP, 3.99 .876 (AHL)

The Oilers were wobbly in their comfort level with last season’s Dubnyk-LaBarbera tandem, this group is MacT endorsed and I must say they look a little deeper. Whatever the reason for last season—MacT’s comments, swarm, snowball headed for hell—I can’t imagine a nightmare as bad two seasons in a row. Scrivens I believe goes in as No. 1, but both NHL goalies appear capable of running with the starting job.

DEFENSE

  1. Justin Schultz 74GP, 11-22-33 23:20 TOI
  2. Jeff Petry 80GP, 7-10-17 21:35TOI
  3. Andrew Ference 71GP, 3-15-18 21:03 TOI
  4. Martin Marincin 44GP, 0-6-6 19:09 TOI
  5. Mark Fayne 72GP, 4-7-11 18:18 TOI
  6. Nikita Nikitin 66GP, 2-13-15 17:06 TOI
  7. Oscar Klefbom 17GP, 1-2-3 15:47 TOI
  8. Keith Aulie 15GP, 0-1-1 9:49 TOI
  9. Brad Hunt 3GP, 0-0-0 12:36 TOI
  10. Martin Gernat 57GP, 4-17-21 (AHL)
  11. David Musil 61GP, 2-10-12 (AHL)
  12. Brandon Davidson 68GP, 5-18-23 (AHL)
  13. Darnell Nurse 4GP, 0-1-1 (AHL)
  14. Dillon Simpson, North Dakota (NCAA)

I’m pleased with the group overall, Nikitin is jazz for some and Justin Schultz isn’t developing as hoped but there’s a sizable group ready to run over them in the near future if it comes to it. The real improvement in this group will come from the maturation of Nurse, Klefbom and Marincin—and possibly one of the group behind (Gernat, Musil, Davidson, Simpson) joining them.

CENTER

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 80GP, 19-37-56 (1.56/60 5×5)
  2. Leon Draisaitl (WHL) (82GP, 15-25-40 NHLE)
  3. Boyd Gordon 74GP, 8-13-21 (0.93/60 5×5)
  4. Mark Arcobello 41GP, 4-14-18 (1.82/60 5×5)
  5. Anton Lander 27GP, 0-1-1 (nil)
  6. Will Acton 30GP, 3-2-5 (1.64/60 5×5)
  7. Bogdan Yakimov (KHL) (82GP, 14-9-23 NHLE)
  8. Jujhar Khaira (WHL) (82GP 7-11-18 NHL)

This is a very strong but horribly young group for such an important position. If these men were all three years older we’d be talking about an entirely different depth chart (should they all develop as hoped). As it is, I think the Oilers probably hold Arcobello in higher esteem than we thought, and they hold Draisaitl in very high regard this instant. The Nuge is a killer, don’t let the 5×5/60 here fool you. His shoulder issue should be fine this season and those multiple ‘high and wide’ scoring chances should cash more often this year. Need an addition amongst the vets.

LEFT WING

  1. Taylor Hall 75GP, 27-53-80 (2.91)
  2. David Perron 78GP, 28-29-57 (1.96)
  3. Benoit Pouliot 80GP, 15-21-36 (1.79)
  4. Matt Hendricks 77GP, 5-2-7 (0.47)
  5. Luke Gazdic 67GP, 2-2-4 (0.62)
  6. Ryan Hamilton 2GP, 0-0-0 (nil)
  7. Curtis Hamilton (AHL) (82GP, 7-7-14 NHLE)
  8. Mitchell Moroz (WHL) (82GP, 12-10-22 NHE)

Taylor Hall is an impact NHL player and this team’s brightest diamond. Perron is an excellent 2line player and Pouliot is too, but I’m hoping they give him to lonely Yak on the 3. Hendricks will get the chores and the rest skate until Hall’s ready to go again. Can the Oilers get 80 goals from LW this season?

RIGHT WING

  1. Jordan Eberle 80GP, 28-37-65 (2.03)
  2. Teddy Purcell 81GP, 12-30-42 (1.37)
  3. Nail Yakupov 63GP, 11-13-24 (1.43)
  4. Jesse Joensuu 42GP, 3-2-5 (0.65)
  5. Steve Pinizzotto 6GP, 0-2-2 (2.08)
  6. Tyler Pitlick 10GP, 1-0-1 (0.67)
  7. Iiro Pakarinen (SML) (82GP, 15-7-22 NHLE)
  8. Andrew Miller (AHL) (82GP, 4-12-16)

This should be a much better position this season. Eberle has chem with Hall-Nuge and soft, soft hands combined with the ‘Steve Shutt sixth sense’ that makes people call him lucky a lot. I’ll take it! Purcell should deliver on the 2 or 3 line and Yakupov has so much talent I expect we’ll see more than 25 goals this season (remember, Ramsay is running the power play). I think Pitlick wins the 4line job unless they sign Winnik/Moss.

Overall, this is a much better roster. Fewer long shots, more NHL players and better bets. Need a center, and a Pisani.

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142 Responses to "GETTING BETTER ALL THE TIME"

  1. gd says:

    One thing I wonder is if they use the Left wing strength to make up for the C weakness. Hall might be the best Left Wing in hockey next year. I think Hall, Perron, Pouliot can be mixed and match on any line. For example they could throw Hall out with Leon and Yak and turn it from a soft minute line to an interesting number two line and then I think either Perron or Pouliot could be effective with RNH-Eberle. It’s not quite the same as what San Jose can do with Thornton, Pavelski, Courture at Centre but it seems like they have a lot more flexibility than last year.

    I also think Gordon gives them a different dimension as possibly the best 4th line C (and highest paid) where they will actually have a chance holding a lead this year. I think adding Fayne and Pouliot to Gordon really increases the team’s chances of getting the puck out of their zone in the last five minutes of a one goal lead game.

    That said I still agree that they need at least a reasonable top 3 Centre to compete. Someone from Bailey or better.

  2. Woodguy says:

    gd,

    Hall was the best LW in hockey last year.

  3. Woodguy says:

    LT,

    Do you know what’s missing in all this?

    The unicorn 3 scoring lines becoming SOP over night.

    How many times did we argue with Spector, Risaug, Gregor et al. about how a “gritty energy line” was a euphemism for “we don’t have enough Actual NHL players”

    They argued that you needed “gritty players who hit on your 4th line”

    We argued back that LAK and CHI didn’t do that and doing that was a waste of 10-12 min/gm and that running a 4th that can handle toughs with Maholtra zone starts was the way to go.

    We were told we didn’t understand hockey.

    Now?

    Now MacT talks about “having a 4th line like Chicago that can take on any comers and take Dzone face offs”

    The previously mentioned MSM fall lock-step in with what MacT is saying and nary a word is spoken about “gritty, hitty, 4th lines”

    So to all that I have two things to say:

    1) Thank Gord MacT has seen the light

    2) Fuck you MSM. We were right.

  4. Woodguy says:

    Seriously these guys defended signing Ryan Jones TWICE by sighting the need for GrittyHitty on the 4th and now not a peep.

    Well done sheep.

  5. Lowetide says:

    WG: Lol. I’ve gone to school on how Chicago uses their Gazdic (and they have one) but it seems to me they’ve figured out how to get embiggened sand keep the puck. HOW? Well, let me get back to you.

  6. JamesL says:

    Woodguy,

    WG,

    It’s an amazing turnaround by the MSM. Don’t get me wrong, I love it that they’ve come around to respecting possession as a metric of strength, but it makes me shake my head that they had to wait for Oilers management to trumpet Corsi before valuing the same. What do they see their roles as? Management’s mouthpiece?

  7. One-Timer says:

    Woodguy:
    gd,

    Hall was the best LW in hockey last year.

    Clearly you forget that he wasn’t on the All-Star team.

  8. schurthang says:

    List of Players going to salary arbitration just came out with Petry and Schultz not being on the list. Does this mean they believe they are close to signing?

  9. soup says:

    LT, you speak to the improvement on D going with the maturation of Nurse, Marincin and Klefboom. Is there a reason that you think Schultz won’t improve?

    There have been a ton of apologists for Yak, but for some reason Schultz is all he is ever going to be. I don’t get it. Aren’t their NHL careers exactly the same length, and isn’t D tougher to learn?

  10. HallDown says:

    I sure hope that Schultz and Petry not filing for arbitration cools the heels on trade rumors. Obviously this is getting done, and maybe just down to NTC’s and such, which MacT doesn’t give out.

    The team is deeper but I have a serious “wait-and-see” attitude for this year. Not starting the season w/ Dubnyk will spot us 6-10pts alone, and I think the 4 new hires will reduce SA and improve possession time. That said:
    -I don’t see a lot of offense from the D, just better puck movement,
    -Pouliot will have to match last year’s success on a weaker team,
    -Purcell is a big ?? mostly because I don’t know him very well,
    -Yakupov has to have a break out season and,
    -It’s looking more and more like there’s no shiny new 2C coming so Arco may be the guy unless they go with the new kid on the block. This is not a good thing.

    Lots to be excited about but I’m not sure we’re there just yet.

  11. JamesL says:

    LT,

    How long do you figure Hendricks lasts on this team? I don’t mind him on our 4th line, but not at $1.85m/year for three more seasons. I wonder if the Oilers might ship him out for a late-round pick when the feel that Moroz (or someone else on a “value” deal) is ready to take his place.

  12. JamesL says:

    soup:
    LT, you speak to the improvement on D going with the maturation of Nurse, Marincin and Klefboom. Is there a reason that you think Schultz won’t improve?

    There have been a ton of apologists for Yak, but for some reason Schultz is all he is ever going to be. I don’t get it. Aren’t their NHL careers exactly the same length, and isn’t D tougher to learn?

    I think a lot of it has to do with Schultz’s age. Guy is turning 24 tomorrow. He’s got a lot less runway in front of him than Yak City/Dream City.

  13. Factotum says:

    One interpretation of Garrett Hohl’s work that Rom shared earlier today would be that an *average* team has what you could reasonably term 3 scoring lines where the third-liners produce 75% as much as the first line in terms of pts/60 5×5.

    It’s been so long since the Oilers were even *average*, it seems like a unicorn to us.

  14. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: Lol. I’ve gone to school on how Chicago uses their Gazdic (and they have one) but it seems to me they’ve figured out how to get embiggened sand keep the puck. HOW? Well, let me get back to you.

    They traded their designated face puncher, Bollig, to CAL.

    As far as I know they have not replaced him.

  15. 2linepass says:

    Hey lowetide, do you see klefbom as the most likely trade bait? he was a previous management Draft pick and we are flush with developing dmen. If a trade goes down for a C could he work as a centerpiece?

  16. Woodguy says:

    soup:
    LT, you speak to the improvement on D going with the maturation of Nurse, Marincin and Klefboom. Is there a reason that you think Schultz won’t improve?

    There have been a ton of apologists for Yak, but for some reason Schultz is all he is ever going to be. I don’t get it. Aren’t their NHL careers exactly the same length, and isn’t D tougher to learn?

    Awesome point re: Jultz and Yak

    I think the disconnect is the verbal coming from the team.

    Jultz is the 2nd coming of Coffey and Yak “needs to learn”

    You’re right that they both need a good year.

    I think getting Jultz away from Ference and Nultz is the first step.

  17. Lowetide says:

    soup:
    LT, you speak to the improvement on D going with the maturation of Nurse, Marincin and Klefboom. Is there a reason that you think Schultz won’t improve?

    There have been a ton of apologists for Yak, but for some reason Schultz is all he is ever going to be. I don’t get it. Aren’t their NHL careers exactly the same length, and isn’t D tougher to learn?

    I believe he has an excellent chance to improve under Craig Ramsay, and I believe he’ll be more effective with less playing time. It’s been suggested that I hate him since saying that a week or so ago, but I in fact do not hate Justin Schultz.

  18. anonymous says:

    JamesL: I think a lot of it has to do with Schultz’s age. Guy is turning 24 tomorrow. He’s got a lot less runway in front of him than Yak City/Dream City.

    This and Yak was held accountable for pretty much every mistake whereas Schultz was allowed to play through his growing pains.

  19. Lowetide says:

    2linepass:
    Hey lowetide, do you see klefbom as the most likely trade bait?he was a previous management Draft pick and we are flush with developing dmen.If a trade goes down for a C could he work as a centerpiece?

    No, I think they really like Klefbom a lot. He’s more an Oiler defender in spirit than Marincin. By that I mean Klefbom is a strong player who can defend physically and do the other things EDM likes their blue to do.

    He’s no wallflower, he’ll engage. He’s a nice package, and more suited to the Oiler way.

  20. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    Saturday night thoughts:

    “The Oilers were wobbly in their comfort level with last season’s Dubnyk-LaBarbera tandem, this group is MacT endorsed and I must say they look a little deeper.” I’d politely call that an understatement. Scrivens & Fasth are an absolute upgrade. Top notch? We’ll find out.

    This group is a serious uptick from last years. Insert shot of hands rubbing quickly together accompanied by that villainous laugh.

    Trade Petry? If you take away a D you need to bring one back in. Just because there are new toys doesn’t mean you can subtract one to fill a need somewhere else. Counterproductive. The D was whore-iffic last year and it showed in the standings. Keep the D you got unless you can upgrade.

    Early, pre-training camp, thoughts on forward lines:

    Hall-RNH-Yakupov
    Pouliot-Arcobello-Eberle
    Perron-Gordon-Purecell
    Hemdricks-Draisaitl-Pitlick

    Any of Acton, Joensuu, Lander, Gazdic & Pinizzotto fight for Draisaitl & Pitlick’s spots, plus the 13th and 14th forward spots.

    Of course chemistry will need to be determined in TC and pre-season and beyond.

    Note: IF Draisaitle or Lander perform better they can hop up to the third. However, this can also be done in-game to have a toughs-line with Gordon and Hendricks. Protect leads, yadda, yadda….

  21. KozyMel says:

    One-Timer,

    Or the Olympic team….

  22. Woodguy says:

    HallDown:
    I sure hope that Schultz and Petry not filing for arbitration cools the heels on trade rumors. Obviously this is getting done, and maybe just down to NTC’s and such, which MacT doesn’t give out.

    The team is deeper but I have a serious “wait-and-see” attitude for this year. Not starting the season w/ Dubnyk will spot us 6-10pts alone, and I think the 4 new hires will reduce SA and improve possession time. That said:
    -I don’t see a lot of offense from the D, just better puck movement,
    -Pouliot will have to match last year’s success on a weaker team,
    -Purcell is a big ?? mostly because I don’t know him very well,
    -Yakupov has to have a break out season and,
    -It’s looking more and more like there’s no shiny new 2C coming so Arco may be the guy unless they go with the new kid on the block. This is not a good thing.

    Lots to be excited about but I’m not sure we’re there just yet.

    Petry not filing for arb makes me think a trade is more likely actually.

  23. jake70 says:

    One absolutely critical aspect of Hall’s game that doesn’t get discussed is his improvement in not leaving himself vulnerable to the Marc Savard whopper hit. I trumpeted the Yak pick for Hall injury insurance as I was almost certain he would be out of the game before his mid-20s. So far so good. (if I just jinxed him for next year I will accept a public stoning…lol)

  24. book¡je says:

    WG – you need to understand , they are not paid to be right, they are paid to reflect the divergent opinions of the public back to them. Entertain and affirm! Journalism is Dead!

  25. jp says:

    Woodguy: Petry not filing for arb makes me think a trade is more likely actually.

    The trade deal would have to be done for him to hold off on filing, no?

    If he hasn’t been traded by Monday, very good chance a new contract (with the Oilers) is in place. Fair?

  26. Numenius says:

    LT, who counts as a Pisani type?

    Does Winnik?

    Does Pouliot not count because he’s too skilled?

  27. Numenius says:

    I ask about Winnik also because I’m wondering if he’d fit on the 3rd line in the event they trade Perron, say, for Neilsen.

    That might be best way to get a good C while avoiding trading Petry, as much as I’d hate to lose Perron.

  28. FastOil says:

    Woodguy:
    LT,

    Do you know what’s missing in all this?

    The unicorn 3 scoring lines becoming SOP over night.

    How many times did we argue with Spector, Risaug, Gregor et al. about how a “gritty energy line” was a euphemism for “we don’t have enough Actual NHL players”

    They argued that you needed “gritty players who hit on your 4th line”

    We argued back that LAK and CHI didn’t do that and doing that was a waste of 10-12 min/gm and that running a 4th that can handle toughs with Maholtra zone starts was the way to go.

    We were told we didn’t understand hockey.

    Now?

    Now MacT talks about “having a 4th line like Chicago that can take on any comers and take Dzone face offs”

    The previouslymentioned MSM fall lock-step in with what MacT is saying and nary a word is spoken about “gritty, hitty, 4th lines”

    So to all that I have two things to say:

    1) Thank Gord MacT has seen the light

    2) Fuck you MSM. We were right.

    FYPM

  29. "Steve Smith" says:

    FastOil: FYPM

    Look, certainly the guy was overhyped, but he wound up being Prime Minister for about twenty minutes, during which he was mostly stuck managing (poorly) the mess left by his predecessor. Before that, he was actually a pretty strong finance minister (the Peter Principle demonstrated once again). At this point, Harper’s been in office for some eight years, three of them with a majority – we can’t keep pinning everything on his predecessor.

  30. Bank Shot says:

    The make up of the forwards seems kind of odd going into this season:

    The thing about Purcell and Pouliot is that their coaches in the past generally tended to give them advantageous offensive zone starts on their teams. Eakins reserved that last season for Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Yak, and Gagner.

    That means this season at least one of either Purcell and Pouliot will have to adopt the Ryan Smyth (36% off, zone) role, or Eakins will have to take zone starts away from the kids. Will the loss of zone starts hit Purcell and Pouliot on the scoresheet? Will they keep the off zone starts and force Hall and Co. into a situation where they will be sheltering the vets?

    Interesting to see how it shakes out.

    Who the hell is going to kill penalties?

    Both of the new wingers don’t. Which means we have Gordon-Hendricks, and Hopkins-Eberle, Arcobello-Perron?

    That’s going to be a much bigger load on our offensive players and we are terribly thin if any of the top PKers go down.

    Having another capable two-way center would really shore that up.

    At least with the Defense they picked up a couple that will be useful on the PK. The less we see Schultz there, the better.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Numenius:
    LT, who counts as a Pisani type?

    Does Winnik?

    Does Pouliot not count because he’s too skilled?

    We’ll see. A good Pisani is like a very good baseball glove. You have to get a feel for it. Winnik qualifies.

  32. FastOil says:

    “Steve Smith”: Look, certainly the guy was overhyped, but he wound up being Prime Minister for about twenty minutes, during which he was mostly stuck managing (poorly) the mess left by his predecessor.Before that, he was actually a pretty strong finance minister (the Peter Principle demonstrated once again).At this point, Harper’s been in office for some eight years, three of them with a majority – we can’t keep pinning everything on his predecessor.

    You are too clever for me.

  33. Hammers says:

    gd:
    One thing I wonder is if they use the Left wing strength to make up for the C weakness. Hall might be the best Left Wing in hockey next year. I think Hall, Perron, Pouliot can be mixed and match on any line. For example they could throw Hall out with Leon and Yak and turn it from a soft minute line to an interesting number two line and then I think either Perron or Pouliot could be effective with RNH-Eberle. It’s not quite the same as what San Jose can do with Thornton, Pavelski, Courture at Centre but it seems like they have a lot more flexibility than last year.

    I also think Gordon gives them a different dimension as possibly the best 4th line C (and highest paid) where they will actually have a chance holding a lead this year. I think adding Fayne and Pouliot to Gordon really increases the team’s chances of getting the puck out of their zone in the last five minutes of a one goal lead game.

    That said I still agree that they need at least a reasonable top 3 Centre to compete. Someone from Bailey or better.

    Whatever line Hall is on is our #1 line or may make other coaches make tough decisions .

  34. bigbadbruin24 says:

    Does Petry and a third/fourth get you Coburn and B Schenn considering Philly’s cap issues? It would save the Flyers approx 3 million, assuming Petry would get approx 4 million per season in a deal. Could help both sides if Philly thinks it is enough.

  35. "Steve Smith" says:

    FastOil: You are too clever for me.

    It’s all I ever wanted to hear.

  36. Hammers says:

    Bank Shot:
    The make up of the forwards seems kind of odd going into this season:

    The thing about Purcell and Pouliot is that their coaches in the past generally tended to give them advantageous offensive zone starts on their teams. Eakins reserved that last season for Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Yak, and Gagner.

    That means this season at least one of either Purcell and Pouliot will have to adopt the Ryan Smyth (36% off, zone) role, or Eakins will have to take zone starts away from the kids. Will the loss of zone starts hit Purcell and Pouliot on the scoresheet?Will they keep the off zone starts and force Hall and Co. into a situation where they will be sheltering the vets?

    Interesting to see how it shakes out.

    Who the hell is going to kill penalties?

    Both of the new wingers don’t. Which means we have Gordon-Hendricks, and Hopkins-Eberle, Arcobello-Perron?

    That’s going to be a much bigger load on our offensive players and we are terribly thin if any of the top PKers go down.

    Having another capable two-way center would really shore that up.

    At least with the Defense they picked up a couple that will be useful on the PK. The less we see Schultz there, the better.

    Yea and it has to change this year . I would leave Ebs & RNH together maybe with Perron . Then as we sit today put Arco with Hall & Yak ; Leon gets Pouliot & Purcell with Gordon drawing Hendricks & Lander ( Can kill penalties ) . Leons line should get the soft minute parade .

  37. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”: Look, certainly the guy was overhyped, but he wound up being Prime Minister for about twenty minutes, during which he was mostly stuck managing (poorly) the mess left by his predecessor.Before that, he was actually a pretty strong finance minister (the Peter Principle demonstrated once again).At this point, Harper’s been in office for some eight years, three of them with a majority – we can’t keep pinning everything on his predecessor.

    When he changed his name from Ahmad Rashad he became a different player.

  38. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    Robert Zimmerman is a fraud.

  39. rickithebear says:

    Wood guy my response to your question in the last thread.

    //Woodguy: To be clear:
    You are saying Petry is the Oilers 6th best Dman right?//

    No i am saying you try to find the best combination of
    1st comp
    2nd comp
    3rd comp
    to get the lowest EVGA/60 possible.

    Nikitin and Fayne is the best 2nd comp EVGA/60 possible!
    In the league.
    if you were to pick a the best 2 player combo in the league.
    Nikitin with Fayne or Mitchell. that is it.
    Though would chase the younger guy!
    Good fucking start to the team!

    By comp
    Ference; Petry; Schultz; Marincin
    shared 1st/2nd comp

    Our best 1st comp sets were
    Ference-Petry 2.24 EVGA/60 largely with Dubnyk
    Marincin-Petry 2.50 EVGA/60 largely with Bryz/Scrivens
    Ference-J. schultz 3.23 EVGA/60

    Marincin played almost solely with Petry
    Marincin gave up zero goals with J. schultz; Belov; Larsen; Ptter; N. schultz.
    Marincin 16 min with Fraser and injured Ference was a shit show 7.45 EVGA/60

    Ference got dropped down the pecking order and had a jump from
    2.24 EVGA/60 with petry to a 3.50+ shit show.
    Pectoral tear anyone?

    Aulie 10-13
    925/1630 minutes was 1st comp with
    Phanuef 2.21 EVGA/60
    in phanuefs career best results with
    Aulie; Regher; Gunnerson; Aucoin.
    Brewer/ Gudas 1.98 EVGA/60

    So our best D pair combo’s
    Ference-Petry 2.24 EVGA/60
    Nikitin (1.31)- Fayne (1.61)
    Marincin-Schultz 2nd comp 0G in 5 games.
    Aulie

    Aulie under Ramsey might be able to
    slot on 1st with Petry
    2nd with Nikitin or Fayne
    3rd with Marincin or Schultz.

    The two d still on roster i like the least defensively.
    Injured Ference and j. Schultz.

    Capable of PP time:
    Nikitin; Petry; Marincin; Schultz

    Strong PKGA
    Nikitin; Ference; Fayne; Petry; Aulie

    Shown to be good EVGA/60 distributer if needed
    Nikitin; Petry; Ference; Schultz; Marincin; Fayne

    Strong 1st comp EVGA/60 with correct partners
    Nikitin; Fayne; Petry; Ference; Marincin; Aulie

    there are 2 guys on all four lists.
    there are 3 Dmen on only 2 or less
    LAK put an emphasis on Even box protection and Good Goalies inside 25 ft.

    Guess who I think is a complete and utter waste of Conversation!

    It is quite sad that you do not think of the D group as a single GA entity.
    that creates barrier from 25 ft in. the high % shots area.
    That partners with varying inside 25ft save % goalies.
    My mantra
    Box protection
    strong Box goalies
    low EVGA/60

    outside 25 ft is dependent on centre play to the box
    and
    wing pressure on the point and boards outside the box.

    you can look at a teams Save% from 20-30 feet
    to know if forward pressure and check is an issue.

  40. Melman says:

    If the choice was going with the current lineup untouched or trading Petry for 2C help and filling the D hole with the players they have, I’d keep Petry and roll with Arco and see if you can upgrade 2C as the season goes. To me that’s a better bet than expecting Klefbom/Aulie/Nurse to hold down the fort until a D upgrade in mid-season can be done. Losing a bunch of points in the first 20 games because of weak D will sewer the season and they can’t afford that again this year.

  41. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:

    I would move that team killer in a second for a center asset.
    Problem is there are limited teams with centre depth that do not put an emphasis on EVGA/60.

  42. limit says:

    Woodguy:
    gd,

    Hall was the best LW in hockey last year.

    Excellent example why possession stats have limited credibility. Hall was 37th best LW from extraskater with CorsiRel of +0.4% right behind Jamie McGinn and Victor Stalberg. Parise #1 LW CorsiRel at 9.2% followed by Jussi Jokinen at +8.6%.

  43. Manitoba Oilers says:

    rickithebear,

    Healthy ference was a shit show also

  44. Numenius says:

    limit: Excellent example why possession stats have limited credibility.Hall was 37th best LW from extraskater with CorsiRel of +0.4% right behind Jamie McGinn and Victor Stalberg.Parise #1 LW CorsiRel at 9.2% followed by Jussi Jokinen at +8.6%.

    The credibility isn’t completely off. Hall did have some serious defensive lapses (e.g. turnovers) last year.

  45. Woodguy says:

    book¡je:
    WG – you need to understand , they are not paid to be right, they are paid to reflect the divergent opinions of the public back to them.Entertain and affirm!Journalism is Dead!

    Well they sure argue like they are the burning bush about all things hockey.

    They don’t reflect my opinion dammit!!

    NOTE: Jason Gregor shouldn’t be lumped in with those guys. His opinion has evolved more than the others and sees value when he sees value. He’s the most open minded of the MSM.

  46. Woodguy says:

    limit: Excellent example why possession stats have limited credibility.Hall was 37th best LW from extraskater with CorsiRel of +0.4% right behind Jamie McGinn and Victor Stalberg.Parise #1 LW CorsiRel at 9.2% followed by Jussi Jokinen at +8.6%.

    That actually points out the limitation of looking at exactly one stat, adding zero context and drawing a conclusion.

  47. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Marincin-Schultz 2nd comp 0G in 5 games.

    Hehehehe

  48. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    Woodguy:

    I would move that team killer in a second for a center asset.
    Problem is there are limited teams with centre depth that do not put an emphasis on EVGA/60.

    What do you want to bet that the players with the highest EVGA/60 is a population dominated by players who played in front of shitty goalies?

  49. Woodguy says:

    BANG!!

    POW!!!!

    ZIP!!!!

  50. rickithebear says:

    Bank Shot: Who the hell is going to kill penalties?

    If you look at historically consistent PKGA results:
    the 4 UFA with PKGA well below 6.11 average.
    Roy;
    Moss;
    Ott;
    Winnick.

  51. limit says:

    Woodguy,

    Alright then please explain your conclusion Taylor Hall was the best LW in the game last year? I would imagine boxcars play a large part and possession stats very little?

  52. limit says:

    Numenius: The credibility isn’t completely off. Hall did have some serious defensive lapses (e.g. turnovers) last year.

    True, Hall was tied 2nd in league with 100 giveaways, so an argument against title of “best LW” last year:
    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2013/

  53. steveb12344 says:

    limit: True, Hall was tied 2nd in league with 100 giveaways, so an argument against title of “best LW”last year:
    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2013/

    Guys who have the puck a lot are always near the top of the league in giveaways. Nothing out of the ordinary there.

  54. steveb12344 says:

    What Taylor’s poor Corsi shows me is; The 5 man units that he was deployed with played poorly despite Hall’s great play which is reflected in his boxcars and scoring chances.

  55. Woodguy says:

    limit:
    Woodguy,

    Alright then please explain your conclusion Taylor Hall was the best LW in the game last year?I would imagine boxcars play a large part and possession stats very little?

    2nd in 5v5 pts/60 (behind only Benn)
    2nd in 5v5 TOI/60 (behind only Kessel)
    Lowest PDO (1002) in top 10 pts/60 LW (wasn’t a “lucky” year)
    2nd best penalty differential in top 10 LW
    Highest IPP in the NHL among all forwards (Individual Points Percentage)
    Faced toughest comp for LW on his team.
    His C was not a huge help to him this year (Benn had Seguin)
    He’s awesome.
    He’s an Oiler.
    Fin.

  56. Woodguy says:

    limit: True, Hall was tied 2nd in league with 100 giveaways, so an argument against title of “best LW”last year:
    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2013/

    Ok, stop right there.

    If you equate give always to poor play, I’m not arguing with you because you don’t know enough.

    For example:

    Here are the top 20 NHL players in give always last year:

    Erik Karlsson 115
    Taylor Hall 100
    Niklas Hjalmarsson 100
    Jeff Petry 96
    Joe Thornton 96
    Alex Goligoski 88
    Phil Kessel 88
    Jacob Trouba 88
    P.K. Subban 83
    Drew Doughty 82
    Andrei Markov 82
    Ryan Getzlaf 76
    Slava Voynov 75
    Justin Williams 75
    Dustin Byfuglien 72
    Jordan Eberle 71
    Milan Lucic 71
    Morgan Rielly 71
    Duncan Keith 70
    Jason Demers 69

    That’s damn near an all-star team.

  57. steveb12344 says:

    Lil’ D mostly kept 04 and 14 apart last year, and 93 struggled for much of the year.

    I think this year they will be back together, and with the improved D we should see better possession numbers as well as increased boxcars for all 3 over last year. That’s provided that they stay relatively healthy of course.

  58. Dicky94 says:

    Woodguy,

    YES! Only going to get better once The Nuge starts to dominate the league! Coming soon!

  59. limit says:

    steveb12344:
    What Taylor’s poor Corsi shows me is;The 5 man units that he was deployed with played poorly despite Hall’s great play which is reflected in his boxcars and scoring chances.

    Sounds like a good theory, so I’m struggling as to how corsi is relevant when boxcars/even strength scoring dominates?
    Strong boxcars + strong corsi => good player
    Strong boxcars + poor corsi => good player

  60. limit says:

    Woodguy: Ok, stop right there.

    If you equate give always to poor play, I’m not arguing with you because you don’t know enough.

    For example:

    Here are the top 20 NHL players in give always last year:

    Erik Karlsson115
    Taylor Hall100
    Niklas Hjalmarsson100
    Jeff Petry96
    Joe Thornton96
    Alex Goligoski88
    Phil Kessel88
    Jacob Trouba88
    P.K. Subban83
    Drew Doughty82
    Andrei Markov82
    Ryan Getzlaf76
    Slava Voynov75
    Justin Williams75
    Dustin Byfuglien72
    Jordan Eberle71
    Milan Lucic71
    Morgan Rielly71
    Duncan Keith70
    Jason Demers69

    That’s damn near an all-star team.

    447 on the list: Zach Parise at 18 turnovers in 68 games played
    There must be some correlation between turnovers and corsi no?

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One of my favorite LT moments is when Woodguy completely forgets the long history of Ricki’s analysis and tries to engage him on the same subject like two people meeting each other for the first time.

    That, and when Woodguy just asks Ricki “how are these D effecting ONSV%?” in stern frustration.

    It’s almost as good as reading new people react to “Steve Smith” for the first time.

  62. limit says:

    Woodguy: 2nd in 5v5 pts/60 (behind only Benn)
    2nd in 5v5 TOI/60 (behind only Kessel)
    Lowest PDO (1002) in top 10 pts/60 LW (wasn’t a “lucky” year)
    2nd best penalty differential in top 10 LW
    Highest IPP in the NHL among all forwards (Individual Points Percentage)
    Faced toughest comp for LW on his team.
    His C was not a huge help to him this year (Benn had Seguin)
    He’s awesome.
    He’s an Oiler.
    Fin.

    Good arguments thanks! He’s got the offence, just need more 2-way play this year to clinch it for me.

  63. John Chambers says:

    Given the bidding war that MacT and Nonis (and presumably others) got into last year over Clarkson, I find it amazing that Steve Ott remains unsigned.

    Is this because MacT has gotten smarter, or is less desperate?

  64. PDO says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    One of my favorite LT moments is when Woodguy completely forgets the long history of Ricki’s analysis and tries to engage him on the same subject like two people meeting each other for the first time.

    That, and when Woodguy just asks Ricki “how are these D effecting ONSV%?” in stern frustration.

    It’s almost as good as reading new people react to “Steve Smith” for the first time.

    Yes. Yes yes and yes.

    Also:

    David Krejci is the target.

    One year left, Boston is in cap hell, and they might not be able to resign him anyway.

    No idea what he costs, but lets send the all the magic beans.

  65. "Steve Smith" says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: It’s almost as good as reading new people react to “Steve Smith” for the first time.

    I’m posting this from the airport, from which I’m about to leave for Halifax for a week-long conference, where I expect a lot of people will be reacting to me for the first time. I’ve always imagined that it would be a thoroughly delightful experience, but perhaps not.

    limit: Sounds like a good theory, so I’m struggling as to how corsi is relevant when boxcars/even strength scoring dominates?
    Strong boxcars + strong corsi => good player
    Strong boxcars + poor corsi => good player

    First of all, note that Woodguy isn’t looking at “boxcars” in the traditional sense (G-A-P), but rather boxcars per 60 minutes of icetime. He should be looking more at even strength boxcars per 60 minutes of even strength icetime (and he knows this), but for some reason he isn’t. So even when statheads look at boxcars, they’re doing it in a slightly more nuanced way than is usual.

    Beyond that, possession shouldn’t be disregarded. Woodguy is doing so a bit here, because he’s trying to advance the position that Taylor Hall is the league’s best left-winger and Taylor Hall’s possession stats sucked last year, but, when he’s in a more honest mood, he would concede that the Corsi is a serious strike against his thesis (I think Woodguy’s admitting his bias in citing “he’s awesome” and “he’s an Oiler” as points in Hall’s favour).

    With Taylor Hall in particular, we do need to remember that his possession stats in 2012-2013 were fantastic playing with the same players as his possession stats in 2013-2014 sucked. So while those 2013-2014 stats can’t be disregarded, we need to bear in mind that they may yet turn out to be an anomaly.

    But I disagree with Woodguy that Taylor Hall was, in 2013-2014, the best left-winger in the game, and the possession stats are a major factor in my conclusion.

  66. Lowetide says:

    PDO: Yes.Yes yes and yes.

    Also:

    David Krejci is the target.

    One year left, Boston is in cap hell, and they might not be able to resign him anyway.

    No idea what he costs, but lets send the all the magic beans.

    I’ve been drinking, and that sounds amazing. The Krejci part. The rest I’ll read again tomorrow and try to figure out what the Christ you people are talking about.

  67. Andy P says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    One of my favorite LT moments is when Woodguy completely forgets the long history of Ricki’s analysis and tries to engage him on the same subject like two people meeting each other for the first time.

    That, and when Woodguy just asks Ricki “how are these D effecting ONSV%?” in stern frustration.

    It’s almost as good as reading new people react to “Steve Smith” for the first time.

    It’s like watching a bizarre confluence of Groundhog Day and 50 First Dates :)

  68. limit says:

    steveb12344: Guys who have the puck a lot are always near the top of the league in giveaways.Nothing out of the ordinary there.

    Hal’s giveaways weren’t as bad 2 and 3 yrs ago when his CorsiRel were very strong.
    Interesting Petry is 4th, 4th, 5th in league giveaways the last 3 years, coincidence or does it tell us anything or ignore?

  69. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide: The rest I’ll read again tomorrow and try to figure out what the Christ you people are talking about.

    Robert Zimmerman is a fraud.

  70. limit says:

    "Steve Smith",

    Awesome thanks makes sense!

  71. PDO says:

    Lowetide: I’ve been drinking, and that sounds amazing. The Krejci part. The rest I’ll read again tomorrow and try to figure out what the Christ you people are talking about.

    2015 2nd OR 2016 1st, Simpson and let Boston pick any prospect not named Leon/Nurse/Klef/Marincin.

    All the magic beans!

    Hall – Nuge – Ebs
    Perron – Krejci – Yakupov (!!!)
    Pouliot – Draisatl – Purcell
    Hendricks – Gordon – Arco

    Marincin – Petry
    Nikitin – Fayne
    Ference – Schultz

    … that sky seems awwwwwfully blue right now.

  72. "Steve Smith" says:

    limit:
    “Steve Smith”,

    Awesome thanks makes sense!

    …and other words that have never before been used in that combination on this site.

  73. spoiler says:

    PDO: Also:
    David Krejci is the target.
    One year left, Boston is in cap hell, and they might not be able to resign him anyway.

    I was looking at this earlier today and wondering the same thing.

    And seeing as the Spezza trade has set the market…

    Lol… ya gotta think Boston dumps other players before Krejci, but it’s nice to speculate.

  74. PDO says:

    spoiler: I was looking at this earlier today and wondering the same thing.

    And seeing as the Spezza trade has set the market…

    Lol… ya gotta think Boston dumps other players before Krejci, but it’s nice to speculate.

    I think they want to dump Boychuk and Marchand…. Boychuk is easy enough to move, but is Marchand?

    Krug, Smith and Bartkowski all need to be signed and they’re just $1,500,000 under the cap. It’s a real shame that Krug and Smith cannot be OS’d.

  75. Dicky94 says:

    I think everyone is drinking. I know I am. Summer finally came to Manitoba and now its pouring rain with golf ball sized hail. Yay.

  76. limit says:

    PDO,

    Krejci $5.25 cap hit, is there space? Not thrilled about $9.5 mln spent on our new 3rd line wingers…

  77. One-Timer says:

    Woodguy: Ok, stop right there.

    If you equate give always to poor play, I’m not arguing with you because you don’t know enough.

    For example:

    Here are the top 20 NHL players in give always last year:

    Erik Karlsson115
    Taylor Hall100
    Niklas Hjalmarsson100
    Jeff Petry96
    Joe Thornton96
    Alex Goligoski88
    Phil Kessel88
    Jacob Trouba88
    P.K. Subban83
    Drew Doughty82
    Andrei Markov82
    Ryan Getzlaf76
    Slava Voynov75
    Justin Williams75
    Dustin Byfuglien72
    Jordan Eberle71
    Milan Lucic71
    Morgan Rielly71
    Duncan Keith70
    Jason Demers69

    That’s damn near an all-star team.

    It’s like saying Brett Favre sucks because he holds the record for interceptions.

    He just threw a hell of a lot more than anybody else, which correlates to a forward like Hall making more plays with the puck than most.

  78. limit says:

    One-Timer,

    Is there a stat timing time spent with puck per player and number of passes completed by player? Soccer tracks this, would be interesting if hockey tracks this, then you get more accurate possession stats than corsi.

  79. limit says:

    Lowetide,

    Nice read! William Nagelsson typo at the last line?

  80. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: What do you want to bet that the players with the highest EVGA/60 is a population dominated by players who played in front of shitty goalies?

    Your better than this generalist shit Comment.

    Tough you did think the range of influence for save % was 1.000
    rather than .935-.897 = .038
    and that
    a dman causing +/- .02 2% variance in save % was nothing!
    .040 of .038 is nothing!

    you guys look at Corsi cause for you it is a measure of possession ability of a player
    I have never said it is not possession but player!
    It is that moment in time where a posscession end occurs.

    trying to achieve the final result GOAL!
    But there are way to many factors leading up to corsi to have any value measuring a player.

    A players personal procession is the only measure of that player.
    Take away/give away.
    That is theirs.
    But even that just skewed by factors.

    Look at taylor hall or Eberle. they choose to have there puck release in a closer distance subject to Box pressure from D.
    They counter balance the turnover rate due to higher pressure penetration.

    If you are not anaylysing the whole phases of play it is simplistic BULL SHIT.

    you also need to Watch video to see if the bio mechanics match up to what you think you are seeing and the math says is occurring.

    Corsi a puck is released:
    -what was its distance by x,y?
    -was it clear path /redirected?
    shooter measure
    -was it blocked
    shooter measure/ Box D measure.
    - did it miss
    shooter measure/ Box d success measure.
    -did it hit goalie.
    Box d measure/ minimal goalie measure.
    - was it saved by actual Goalie movement
    goalie measure
    -did it go in
    Shooter measure
    - was there a rebound.
    loss of possession or 2nd phase pros session
    the gain is a measure of player.

    -2nd phase is viewed to next corsi possibility or giveaway.

    If the procession is lost.
    - does the coach change lines.
    Measure of coach not players.
    - do they pressure at top of blue
    - does the puck clear 1st zone
    - are they forwards in back check position
    - do they pressure at own blue or allow entry
    all possible give away take away points.

    resulting in a measured Zone entry.

    in the zone by entry or by FO win.
    -movement to release of puck or turnover.

    ON and ON!

    You want me to accept Corsi as a measure of a player.

    fuck off!
    I did not work in industrial plants
    and petroleum industry sites.
    technically reviewing all equipment added.
    Industrial manufacturing one of teams.
    (design solutions)
    Review retrofit!
    on Junior ENG fuck ups all thru fort Mac and Emnonton.
    Predict the massive fire at Albian sands
    and
    have the MRC morons not fucking listen.
    there is to much complexity in dynamic action.
    but play is repetitive and we are slowly generating the tools and numbers of measure.
    we nee to reognize baseline values and throw away the noise.
    the progression is fun to watch.

    On this sight you guys grab on to stuff that has to simplistic or is failed in data or holds no value.

    what i want:

    Goalies:
    -Good steady squared movement.
    so the puck hits them.
    -Good glove blocker positioning
    so the puck hits them
    -Good giove blocker movement
    for 6 hole and 7 hole saving
    -Elevated trunk length
    for a reduction in holes over the shoulder
    -Good hip movement
    for slight pad side to side
    saving the low shot puck.
    - movement while stick is held in strong 5 hole cover
    Hoefully resulting in a high ave% inside 25 ft.
    - the ability to pick up puck at range.
    -strong tracking
    - strong post positioning.
    - good player tendency study
    -so good memory.
    As result strong inside 25ft and good deflection skills.

    D men:
    - Strong back skater.
    -smooth forward skater.
    - able to straddle and hold
    - kick foot turn on board entry.
    - strong leverage and engage
    -Strong procession skills.
    - good Stick reach and lane control
    - Good blocking ability
    -Godd path clearing ability
    - able to physically pressure at top of box.
    - able to side engage and drive.
    - good eye read
    - strong practiced touch pass.
    As a result:
    popr zone entry; Strong box protection;
    poor shooting %
    and quick puck transition.

    Forwards:
    wholly fuck
    PPG;
    EVG;
    PKGA;
    Takeaway/giveaway
    short corsi x,y didstance.
    strong 2nd phase retrieval
    Strong positional reads.
    good pack check
    positional read in Dzone.
    Strong FO%

    quite honestly:
    Seeing Malhotra Shelter the Sedins.
    A break even tough ZS 4th line is gold.
    with a variance of 59 to 41% in FO%
    that can get into 5 more processions for the other side.
    Mact Acquired
    Gordon
    then traded for Hendricks.
    I watched Khaira put on a Defensive show in the AHL at end of year that has me
    wanting him on 4RW with slotting up the line-up as he goes along.

    Boston protecting the fuck out of the box.
    Charal Ference; ……..

    We brought in Ference a top 20
    He and petry were quite effective on first comp.
    Marincin showed up and he was top 10 at protecting the box.

    Then Mact get 2 of the top 15 and another rtop 30
    Nikitin
    Fayne
    Aulie

    Mact unloaded the worst goalie inside 25ft last year
    and
    brings in a top 5 save % inside 25 ft.
    Scrivens

    then the possession issues from the bottom and lack of even scoring
    Brings in Perron top 35 Forward evg
    Now we have 1-3 covered.
    Hall; Eberle; Perron

    RNH is developing
    Gagner for Purcell top 40 EVG RW
    Pouliot brought in top 40 EVG LW
    PRNH; Purcell; Pouliot

    yak is now on the 3rd level of EVG need.

    What we Lack is Centers with good FO%

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Perron-XXX-Purcell
    Pouliot-XXX-Yak
    Hendricks-Gordon-XXX
    Gaxdic-XXX

    Ference-Petry
    nikitin-Fayne
    Marincin-XXX
    Aulie

    Scrivens
    Fasth

    It is funny my priority for this year was Niskinin; Bellimore; Fayne; Pouliot; Boyle.
    when they went for Nikitin
    i went wholly F……..
    then looked at etas hockey……
    Behind the net……….
    Comp paiings and
    Situation and went
    the best 2nd comp choice in game.
    Signed Nikitin
    then got Draisatl
    traded for Purcell
    then got Fayne and poulit.

    I was over the top.

    I talked about aulie getting messed up in TB.
    with a young Mechanical engineer flames fan.
    Who was a test pilot
    for MacDon all thru Southern USA.
    to this day he is still pissed about Aulie.
    duple of weeks before thought that is young Dman that aaas water.
    Saifd to the young eng.
    Some team should take a chance on him.
    Walked in wednesday.
    All he said was FUCKER!
    Keep on working MACT!

  81. One-Timer says:

    limit,

    I was actually wondering that, if there’s a way to calculate pass completion %age, which is a biggie in soccer, especially for midfielders.

    Woodguy?

  82. limit says:

    rickithebear,

    Epic post! I will need to re-read!

  83. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    More on Lagesson

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/7/5/william-lagesson

    Okay, wait. I don’t get it. Is he Nik Lidstrom or not?

    Nice write-up. Puts things in perspective, which, you know, is sort of something you do really well.

    I suspect that the tag “arrives at the puck in ill-humour” will be applied once the Edmonton media gets a chance to see him.

  84. PDO says:

    limit:
    PDO,

    Krejci $5.25 cap hit, is there space?Not thrilled about $9.5 mln spent on our new 3rd line wingers…

    I don’t see why not…

    CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
    CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
    FORWARDS
    Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.000m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
    David Perron ($3.813m) / David Krejci ($5.250m) / Teddy Purcell ($4.500m)
    Benoit Pouliot ($4.000m) / Nail Yakupov ($0.925m)
    Matt Hendricks ($1.850m) / Boyd Gordon ($3.000m) / Mark Arcobello ($0.600m)
    Luke Gazdic ($0.800m) / Anton Lander ($0.600m) /
    DEFENSEMEN
    Martin Marincin ($0.730m) / Jeff Petry ($3.000m)
    Nikita Nikitin ($4.500m) / Mark Fayne ($3.625m)
    Justin Schultz ($2.000m) / Andrew Ference ($3.250m)
    Keith Aulie ($0.800m)
    GOALTENDERS
    Viktor Fasth ($2.900m)
    Ben Scrivens ($2.300m)
    BUYOUTS
    Eric Belanger ($0.000m)
    BURIED
    Jesse Joensuu ($0.025m)
    BONUS OVERAGE
    $0

    Now Draisatl will have a cap hit of $950k (just like Yak). You run a bit of risk of running into him and Yak hitting too many bonuses and creating a headache next year; but if you’re going to bridge Schultz and Petry, well… that gets you there.

    I’m not sure if you could resign Krejci, but damn that is a roster.

  85. rickithebear says:

    limit:
    One-Timer,

    Is there a stat timing time spent with puck per player and number of passes completed by player?Soccer tracks this, would be interesting if hockey tracks this, then you get more accurate possession stats than corsi.

    The technology is their.
    Fox had a puck that put on a stupid flash!
    but tracking would be perfect.

  86. Henry says:

    “Steve Smith”: Robert Zimmerman is a fraud.

    Poor Halifax. Smacked by a hurricane. I hope they are ready for ‘Steve Smith’.

  87. spoiler says:

    PDO: I think they want to dump Boychuk and Marchand…. Boychuk is easy enough to move, but is Marchand?

    Krug, Smith and Bartkowski all need to be signed and they’re just $1,500,000 under the cap.It’s a real shame that Krug and Smith cannot be OS’d.

    And they still need some RW. All they’ve really got is Loui. Something BIG has to drop from Boston.

  88. VanOil says:

    PDO: Pouliot – Draisatl – Purcell

    That line is too tall.

  89. bigbadbruin24 says:

    Krejci…really…c’mon now, lol. Despite the cap hell Boston is in, Krejci would not be shipped off for anything the Oil would be willing to part with. Boychuk, Kelly, Campbell, Bartkowski are more likely names that would be moved. Heck even Marchand and Eriksson could probably be had for the right offer but other than Johnny B and Kelly, I don’t see a trade between the two teams in the cards. I still think a deal will materialize with Philly.

  90. Henry says:

    rickithebear,

    I think large parts of that post are in iambic pentameter.

    Well done!

  91. RexLibris says:

    rickithebear,

    I don’t always read your posts.

    But this one was very enlightening. Strong criteria on choosing players and I would agree with much of it.

    I’m encouraged by your take on Aulie. I heard from media reports citing a scout at the time of the Phaneuf deal that Aulie was perhaps the real steal of the trade based on how he projected and I am genuinely excited to see his progress this year under Ramsay.

    For purely parochial reasons I hope he becomes the Beukeboom Deux wrecking machine that would gall Flames fans every time he takes to the ice.

    Thank you.

  92. spoiler says:

    bigbadbruin24: Krejci…really…c’mon now, lol

    None of us really believe Krejci is available, but there is that nagging doubt that creeps in from a lack of any talk of a contract extension…

  93. PDO says:

    spoiler: None of us really believe Krejci is available, but there is that nagging doubt that creeps in from a lack of any talk of a contract extension…

    Exactly.

    I suspect he isn’t dealt and said as much…. but maybe they think Soderberg can do what he does for less.

  94. spoiler says:

    RexLibris: I’m encouraged by your take on Aulie. I heard from media reports citing a scout at the time of the Phaneuf deal that Aulie was perhaps the real steal of the trade based on how he projected and I am genuinely excited to see his progress this year under Ramsay.

    For purely parochial reasons I hope he becomes the Beukeboom Deux wrecking machine that would gall Flames fans every time he takes to the ice.

    Thank you.

    I think playing the Flames and that boxing card at RW is one of the reasons Aulie was picked up.

  95. bigbadbruin24 says:

    spoiler,

    Obviously nobody can ever be ruled out to be traded but I don’t think trading Krejci is on the radar at all with the Bruins. As for lack of talk regarding an extension, they probably want to clean up this years situation before delving too deeply with Krejci. Don’t get me wrong, I think he would look awesome in Oil country but I think I prefer him in Black and Gold.

  96. spoiler says:

    rickithebear: you guys look at Corsi cause for you it is a measure of possession ability of a player
    I have never said it is not possession but player!
    It is that moment in time where a posscession end occurs.
    trying to achieve the final result GOAL!

    This saddened me greatly. Don’t heed the spelling lessons given here.

    rickithebear:
    A players personal procession is the only measure of that player.

    But then a few short sentences later the world (word?) was right again.

  97. spoiler says:

    bigbadbruin24: As for lack of talk regarding an extension, they probably want to clean up this years situation before delving too deeply with Krejci.

    Oh, for sure. But they could also say that.

  98. bigbadbruin24 says:

    PDO,

    I imagine they are very high on Soderberg as well. He showed some flashes of what he can do this year. Kelly will be the guy they trade if they can. If alone, most likely for a pick or B level prospect. I suspect it will be within a multi-player deal though.

  99. Gret99zky says:

    The Oilers have made some improvements to their lineup compared to last year, sure.

    But I’m going to take a wait and see approach to how this lineup competes against the other teams in the league, specifically in the Western Conference.

    This line-up, as it stands, does not fill me with confidence.

  100. PDO says:

    bigbadbruin24:
    PDO,

    I imagine they are very high on Soderberg as well. He showed some flashes of what he can do this year. Kelly will be the guy they trade if they can. If alone, most likely for a pick or B level prospect. I suspect it will be within a multi-player deal though.

    I agree, fully.

    I’ve seen teams think they’re a bit smarter than they are before though (I do live in Edmonton). If they think Soderberg can replace him… maybe it happens. Doesn’t seem impossible.

  101. Lowetide says:

    limit:
    Lowetide,

    Nice read! William Nagelsson typo at the last line?

    Well I did say I’d been drinking!

  102. PDO says:

    Lowetide: Well I did say I’d been drinking!

    Wait you’re getting paid to drink and talk about hockey?

    Lowetide has won life.

  103. Kitchener says:

    Regarding Pitlick & Curtis Hamilton:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=627881&catid=4 (start at 3:30)

    Based on Nelson’s quote, Pitlick will likely be a “see how camp turns out” roster decision. Also, Hamilton’s extension is explained simply by comparison to Detroit’s Tatar. Basically, “5 years isn’t necessarily enough runway to tell what’s what.”

    Given that there’s no salary cap on coaches, I sure hope Nelson’s salary is f’n AHL epic.

    Also while talking about OKC/Nelson, please dear Hockey Gords, move the OKC franchise to southern Ontario. Kitchener has a decent arena, 500,000 local tri-city residents, and a guaranteed sell-out every game forever. PLEASE.

  104. RexLibris says:

    spoiler,

    I’m torn right now.

    Their roster reads like a Vegas buffet for a good powerplay team, but with every loss they will be inching closer to drafting one of either McDavid or Eichel. If that happens, you know what we’ll have to endure? The catcalls and nagging will be heard as far away as Thunder Bay (otherwise further, but nothing can break through that dome of noise emanating from the Great T.O.).

    Canucks/Flames games should be interesting, though. Kassian might just have to keep his head up for once. Cruel irony if the Flames delivered the come-uppance the Oilers were so incapable of.

  105. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Well I did say I’d been drinking!

    CR still?

    Or, have you found a new whisky?

    For mixed drinks, I’ve been liberally enjoying this Forty Creek Copper Pot.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pl11L4GOVsk

    http://www.canadianwhisky.org/reviews/forty-creek-copper-pot-reserve-43-alcvol.html

  106. spoiler says:

    RexLibris:
    Their roster reads like a Vegas buffet for a good powerplay team, but with every loss they will be inching closer to drafting one of either McDavid or Eichel.

    Pray like hell for Nashville, Caroline, Florida, Buffalo and whomever else that wants to join the party.

  107. jp says:

    PDO: I don’t see why not…

    CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
    CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
    FORWARDS
    Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.000m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
    David Perron ($3.813m) / David Krejci ($5.250m) / Teddy Purcell ($4.500m)
    Benoit Pouliot ($4.000m) / Nail Yakupov ($0.925m)
    Matt Hendricks ($1.850m) / Boyd Gordon ($3.000m) / Mark Arcobello ($0.600m)
    Luke Gazdic ($0.800m) / Anton Lander ($0.600m) /
    DEFENSEMEN
    Martin Marincin ($0.730m) / Jeff Petry ($3.000m)
    Nikita Nikitin ($4.500m) / Mark Fayne ($3.625m)
    Justin Schultz ($2.000m) / Andrew Ference ($3.250m)
    Keith Aulie ($0.800m)
    GOALTENDERS
    Viktor Fasth ($2.900m)
    Ben Scrivens ($2.300m)
    BUYOUTS
    Eric Belanger ($0.000m)
    BURIED
    Jesse Joensuu ($0.025m)
    BONUS OVERAGE
    $0

    Now Draisatl will have a cap hit of $950k (just like Yak).You run a bit of risk of running into him and Yak hitting too many bonuses and creating a headache next year; but if you’re going to bridge Schultz and Petry, well… that gets you there.

    I’m not sure if you could resign Krejci, but damn that is a roster.

    You just bridged Petry to UFA and asked team TOI leader Schultz to sign for less than he made this year. Aside from everything else salary would have to be shed to fit Krejci into the lineup, as nice as the idea is.

  108. steveb12344 says:

    Kitchener:

    Also while talking about OKC/Nelson, please dear Hockey Gords, move the OKC franchise to southern Ontario.Kitchener has a decent arena, 500,000 local tri-city residents, and a guaranteed sell-out every game forever.PLEASE.

    Nah. If anything the logical location if they move would be Saskatoon.

    They would easily sell out. (think Rider fans.) Also only about a 5 hour drive from Edmonton, so as to keep the prospects nice and close.

  109. Zangetsu says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I tried to make a Rugby drink. I called it scrum. It’s the Devil’s elixir.

  110. Kitchener says:

    Interesting post-draft note: I haven’t noticed a single critical comment on this blog about the Oil drafting Draisatl. MBS, MacT, & Katz Jr: well done team.

    Woodguy,

    WG: yes, we were.
    RexLibris,

    RL: The first few years of Toronto’s Burke experience was laughable. I’m hoping Calgary’s move toward truculence is even worse. Vancouver is more interesting imo: they’re dangerously close to being competitive for the next 10 years without a complete crash. Damn.

  111. Kitchener says:

    steveb12344,

    I agree with you, but a guy can hope. Nothing’s worse than fighting the 401 at rush hour to see the Barons play the goddamn Marlies.

  112. slopitch says:

    LT it’s summer and I love how bullish you are on the progress. I also think you may have understated what Nuge and Yak playing like 1st overall picks could mean to this team. Gotta get that 2C. Beauty day today!

  113. steveb12344 says:

    Kitchener:
    steveb12344,

    I agree with you, but a guy can hope.Nothing’s worse than fighting the 401 at rush hour to see the Barons play the goddamn Marlies.

    The Don Valley Parking lot is no picnic either.

  114. RexLibris says:

    Kitchener,

    I tried to liven up the Flames crowd the other day by mentioning that at least there didn’t appear to be any flashy RFA wingers on contract holdouts that could he could trade a couple of 1st round picks for.

    This isn’t just Burke, though. It is Burke, Treliving, Conroy, and let’s not discount the potential input of Edwards and King.

    The one saving grace is that if any coach is going to squeeze the most out of a lineup built on the Burke model, it is likely to be Hartley.

  115. OilFire says:

    It’s sort of funny how when someone is asked a simple question and spends an enormous post not providing a clear and direct answer, that’s the answer in itself.

  116. RexLibris says:

    spoiler: Pray like hell for Nashville, Caroline, Florida, Buffalo and whomever else that wants to join the party.

    I strolled through the NHL on capgeek the other day, taking a look at rosters and depth charts. There isn’t a term to describe how thin the Flames are at RW – their top listed natural RW is Brian McGrattan, sorry if I’m repeating myself but hot damn that is bad.

    The Sabres look terrible, but could surprise. Florida is, well, Florida. One never knows how bad they’ll be. Then there are the Islanders, essentially another spot taken by Buffalo, and of course our own lovable Oilers. Throw in the Senators, Hurricanes, Capitals, Canucks, Nashville, and leave one spot open for the “surprise collapse” of the season as well as the non-playoff lottery and there are enough potential culprits to take home one of the presumed jewels in this year’s draft crown.

  117. limit says:

    OilFire,

    What is your point?

  118. limit says:

    jp,

    Is there a way in hockey to translate/regress a player’s contribution (eg. boxcars, EVpts//60, QoC, ZS, WOWY, IPP, FO%, PDO) to a team’s win prob like in baseball how WAR can be computed and translated in $ worth, to properly evaluate the trade-off with a player’s % of team cap hit?

  119. OilFire says:

    limit:
    OilFire,

    What is your point?

    Just that it’s hard to have a discussion with someone when they don’t try to answer questions. Usually means they can’t.

  120. Woodguy says:

    limit: Sounds like a good theory, so I’m struggling as to how corsi is relevant when boxcars/even strength scoring dominates?
    Strong boxcars + strong corsi => good player
    Strong boxcars + poor corsi => good player

    Corsi and boxcars are measuring two different things.

    Both have value.

    Corsi measures how the team generates offence when the player is on the ice. Offence here is used to described creating scoring chances.

    Boxcars are used to measure how they finish those scoring chances.

  121. Woodguy says:

    limit: 447 on the list: Zach Parise at 18 turnovers in 68 games played
    There must be some correlation between turnovers and corsi no?

    I don’t think anyone has done an analysis on the two.

    Given that at lot of the corsi monsters are are near the top of the give away list and you also point out that Parise (who was a corsi monster last year) give away few, then probably not.

    Also,

    Many have looked “scorer effects” for RSS like give aways. Its best to analyse them using only Away data to remove scorer bias.

  122. Woodguy says:

    limit: Good arguments thanks!He’s got the offence, just need more 2-way play this year to clinch it for me.

    He had a history of being a corsi monster until this year.

    I hope Ramsay helps Eakins with his tactical flaws.

    The last time the Oilers had a decent team corsi was Renney’s last year.

    Since then its been a shooting gallery.

    Also,

    Hall’s Relative Corsi history:

    2010-2011 Season 10.3
    2011-2012 Season 15.2
    2012-2013 Season 20.3
    2013-2014 Season 2.4

    The first 3 are pretty ridiculous.

    Then we see why people like Tyler Dellow asked “Did Eakins break Hall?”

    If you haven’t read Tyler’s site mc79hockey.com its very good for this type of discussion.

    Tyler created his own data base of every shot attempt in the NHL since 2005 and has published some interesting stuff related to corsi and is taking it to the next level.

  123. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    One of my favorite LT moments is when Woodguy completely forgets the long history of Ricki’s analysis and tries to engage him on the same subject like two people meeting each other for the first time.

    That, and when Woodguy just asks Ricki “how are these D effecting ONSV%?” in stern frustration.

    It’s almost as good as reading new people react to “Steve Smith” for the first time.

    I can’t help myself.

    I have the self control of a 12 year old.

  124. Woodguy says:

    One-Timer:
    limit,

    I was actually wondering that, if there’s a way to calculate pass completion %age, which is a biggie in soccer, especially for midfielders.

    Woodguy?

    Not yet.

    The RF chips and cameras will help and I think we are at least 3 years away from that.

    Rob Vollman of Hockey Prospectus/ESPN other stuff has a passing metric that’s pretty interesting.

    Pick up his Hockey Abstract PDF here: http://www.hockeyabstract.com/

    Great read on many subjects.

    Funny coincidence, the first year he runs his metric, Taylor Hall comes out as the best passer in the NHL.

    Ha!

  125. Woodguy says:

    "Steve Smith": I’m posting this from the airport, from which I’m about to leave for Halifax for a week-long conference, where I expect a lot of people will be reacting to me for the first time.I’ve always imagined that it would be a thoroughly delightful experience, but perhaps not.

    First of all, note that Woodguy isn’t looking at “boxcars” in the traditional sense (G-A-P), but rather boxcars per 60 minutes of icetime.He should be looking more at even strength boxcars per 60 minutes of even strength icetime (and he knows this), but for some reason he isn’t.So even when statheads look at boxcars, they’re doing it in a slightly more nuanced way than is usual.

    Beyond that, possession shouldn’t be disregarded.Woodguy is doing so a bit here, because he’s trying to advance the position that Taylor Hall is the league’s best left-winger and Taylor Hall’s possession stats sucked last year, but, when he’s in a more honest mood, he would concede that the Corsi is a serious strike against his thesis (I think Woodguy’s admitting his bias in citing “he’s awesome” and “he’s an Oiler” as points in Hall’s favour).

    With Taylor Hall in particular, we do need to remember that his possession stats in 2012-2013 were fantastic playing with the same players as his possession stats in 2013-2014 sucked.So while those 2013-2014 stats can’t be disregarded, we need to bear in mind that they may yet turn out to be an anomaly.

    But I disagree with Woodguy that Taylor Hall was, in 2013-2014, the best left-winger in the game, and the possession stats are a major factor in my conclusion.

    That’s pretty sound interpretation.

    I did use 5v5 #’s though, just forgot to mention that I did.

    I always seperate 5v5 and 5v4. Two separate but closely related skill sets.

  126. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris:
    rickithebear,

    I don’t always read your posts.

    But this one was very enlightening. Strong criteria on choosing players and I would agree with much of it.

    I’m encouraged by your take on Aulie. I heard from media reports citing a scout at the time of the Phaneuf deal that Aulie was perhaps the real steal of the trade based on how he projected and I am genuinely excited to see his progress this year under Ramsay.

    For purely parochial reasons I hope he becomes the Beukeboom Deux wrecking machine that would gall Flames fans every time he takes to the ice.

    Thank you.

    Ricki has some awesome ideas.

    If he could just ditch metrics that rely heavily on 5v5 SV%ON he’d had much more interesting conclusions.

    Here is an excellent post on the randomness of ONSV%: http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/09/09/the-randomness-of-on-ice-save-percentages/

    Here is an excellent post about how Dmen don’t limit shot distance: http://blog.extraskater.com/2014/06/on-ice-shot-distance/

    If Ricki could get past those two things there might be so gold in there.

    As long as he includes them the results are not that meaningful.

  127. Woodguy says:

    limit:
    Woodguy,

    Alright then please explain your conclusion Taylor Hall was the best LW in the game last year?I would imagine boxcars play a large part and possession stats very little?

    Here’s an interesting post by Tyler entitled: “Points aren’t offence”

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/2014/06/points-arent-offence/

    Good read on how the ability to generate scoring chances (corsi) can be separate from getting points.

    Also,

    The reason people use corsi is that it has been shown to be highly correlated with scoring chances, so you can use corsi as a proxy for scoring chances without having to watch 1230 games and log each scoring chance.

    Also,

    The metric Fenwick (corsi – blocked shots) is commonly used.

    Many will only look seriously at the corsi or fenwick when the game is close (1st 2 periods are within a goal, or tied in the 3rd)

    It removes score effects (teams far ahead in a game tend to sit back and get outshot) and shows who’s actually zooming who.

    Related to this is that for the 6 years the Stanley Cup has been won by a team who had a “5v5 Fenwick Close” of 55% or better in the regular season.

    Fenwick Close (or Fenclose) is a better predictor Championship teams than points in the regular season, and score differential (although score differential is very close)

    That’s why we use those metrics.

    They are team metrics, but with a little work you can tease out some individual info.

  128. Woodguy says:

    limit:
    jp,

    Is there a way in hockey to translate/regress a player’s contribution (eg. boxcars, EVpts//60, QoC, ZS, WOWY, IPP, FO%, PDO) to a team’s win prob like in baseball how WAR can be computed and translated in $ worth, to properly evaluate the trade-off with a player’s % of team cap hit?

    The black box numbers are pretty sketchy in hockey still and probably will be for a long time.

    Some use GVT, but meh.

  129. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    More on Lagesson

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/7/5/william-lagesson

    He looks like a cross between Tom Gilbert and Oscar Klefbom.

  130. gvblackhawk says:

    Woodguy: He looks like a cross between Tom Gilbert and Oscar Klefbom.

    Looks like he could sing a great rendition of “Mmmm Bop”.

  131. justDOit says:

    gvblackhawk: Looks like he could sing a great rendition of “Mmmm Bop”.

    Achieve the unattainable? Would time then, cease to exist?

  132. limit says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks for all the links, info, and explanations, very helpful. Also, it was very handy to have a copy of the stats at the site you mentioned http://www.hockeyabstract.com/

    “Points Aren’t Offence” article views that points are an archaic attempt to divvy up credit for offence but may fail to credit players for offence for which they are responsible. On the other hand, I would argue that corsi is an attempt to divvy up credit for offence/defence too evenly and may credit people for offence/defence for which they are not responsible for (right place right time, similar to +/-)

    The fact that Pts (Crosby, Getzlaf, Giroux), EVP/60 (Getzlaf, Perry, Hall), and IPP (Hall, Crosby, Tavares) puts universally recognized star players at the top of the list while 5v5Corsi (Kopitar, Muzzin, Bergeron), 5v5RelCorsi (Giodano, Neal, Voracek), 5v5AdjCorsi (Giordano, Brodie, Backland) puts very good but not necessarily the best players at the top of the list suggests to me that although corsi has value, Pts have a stronger relationship to offence than corsi and therefore have higher credibility (weight) than corsi (which is useful as a secondary tool, similar to an extension of the +/- concept at identifying 2-way contributions but with the advantage of a larger sample size)?

    I do agree with the view that Corsi/Fenwick works well at a team-level over a long-run (like how the house always wins), unless the team had an elite goalie that can maintain a high SV% like Price being “in the zone” stealing games for playoff series.

  133. haters says:

    If Mac T would have addressed the goalie, and defencemen situation earlier in the season, let’s say the 5 game mark, I suspect the season would have gone much better. If he learns to trust his gut and make quicker decisions instead of hoping things will turn around then that will be the true marker that the team is progressing forward. Your only as good as your worst player/ employee. I heard that somewhere and I think it applies to most situations in life. Identify who is the weakest link and improve or replace to grow. I have serious doubts concerning Purcell I hope he proves me wrong .

  134. Dicky94 says:

    Kitchener,

    Move it to Saskatoon.

  135. Big Dan says:

    I anticipate no movement this summer (although rumors of Eakin,etc are fun). Petry will sign; MacT knows the value of good D. He probably doesn’t want to pump Petry’s tires too much in public with a tough negotiation in process. I think $3.5M, $4M, $4.25M, $4.25M should do it. Why trade him for an older Coburn – who costs more money?

    I think Legwand was probably asking for $5M during the week before Canada Day and wasn’t even of Edmonton’s radar. MacT focused on tier 2 and got the two men he really wanted + threw some scout a bone and agreed to sign Aulie (after Flames added Bollig and Engelland).

    Had MacT had a crystal ball, maybe he’d have signed Legwand instead of Pouliot. Oh well. MacT didn’t have the cap space after Pouliot for a 2C (once you factor in bonuses) and is hoping:

    (a) Draisaitl blows everybody away at camp and seizes the 2nd line center spot. If so, MacT looks like a genius.

    (b) Arcobello plays like he did last time he got 2C ice time, and proves to be a good stop-gap until Draisaitl is ready a year from now. Also, if the Oilers are in the playoff race, perhaps a 2C is available at the trade deadline.

    (c) Yakupov comes in as a house on fire at camp under Craig Ramsay. He had some brief chemistry with Taylor Hall in February last year. Or he plays 2nd line and Perron, who had some chemistry with Hall, moves to 1st line RW. Eberle and Purcell both played C in junior (I think Pouliot did too).. so some variation of line combinations could fill the 2C solution temporarily if Draisaitl or Arcobello cannot.

    (d) Klefbom just smokes it in camp and Petry’s agent is still playing hardball. MacT plays his back pocket deal= Petry for Josh Bailey & a 2nd ? (or some other cool player … like Eakin). Nikitin moves to the right side. Philly signed Brayden Schenn for cheap – he’s not going anywhere. I also think Bailey is just as good as Schenn. Both are solid 3rd liners that would be ok as a stop-gap Edmonton 2C (being flanked by two excellent wingers in Perron and Purcell).

    I guess MacT knew in a salary cap world that he may not be able to get everything he wants, and the 2C was the one there were four possible ways to fill anyway.

    MacT didn’t want to gamble on a guy like Legwand falling out in the end as a bargain. Better to get Pouliot than possibly nothing (then he would have REALLY been filleted by the fans). I am on board with that.

    My prediction for next season is (b), I love that guy and MacT does too. Deakins doesn’t quite agree.

    … On another note, I disagree with you MacT about Pitlick making the roster. Lander may make it on as the 10 minute/night as 4C (and Gordon could play 15 minutes/night as RW on paper anyway). Or Gazdic plays a few minutes a night as the 3rd line RW – with Pinizzoto being called up as the pinch hitter when the need arises. Or Joensuu has a good camp and stays in North America.

    Pitlick is the 3rd line C/W for the Barons behind Chase and Yakimov. I don’t he will ever be a full-time NHLer. He may get a year in there like Hulbig did for Boston but he’ll always be on the bubble IMHO.

    … On another note, I roll my eyes at the constant slamming of Clancy winner Ference and breath of fresh air Hendricks. We needed veteran leadership, they give it. The average NHLer makes over $3M. They’re fine. Yes, Ference – while a decent 4D on most teams – was not a good fit with Schultz, he’ll be much better this year with Nikitin or Fayne.

  136. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The one quote you put in from Swedish Oil on Lagesson needs further explanation….

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=86158

    He doesn’t appear to have played in either of Sweden’s men’s leagues yet.

  137. Pouzar says:

    rickithebear: Your better than this generalist shit Comment.

    Tough you did think the range of influence for save % was 1.000
    rather than .935-.897 = .038
    and that
    a dman causing+/- .022% variance in save % wasnothing!.040 of .038 is nothing!

    you guys look at Corsi cause for you it is a measure of possession ability of a player
    I have never said it is not possession but player!
    It is that moment in time where aposscession end occurs.

    trying to achieve the final result GOAL!
    But there are way to many factors leading up to corsi to have any value measuring a player.

    A players personal procession is the only measure of that player.
    Take away/give away.
    That is theirs.
    But even that just skewed by factors.

    Look at taylor hall or Eberle. they choose to have there puck release in a closer distance subject to Box pressure from D.
    They counter balance the turnover rate due to higher pressure penetration.

    If you are not anaylysing the whole phases of play itis simplistic BULL SHIT.

    you also need to Watch video to see if the bio mechanics match up to what you think you are seeing and the math says is occurring.

    Corsi a puck is released:
    -what was its distance by x,y?
    -was it clear path /redirected?
    shooter measure
    -was it blocked
    shooter measure/Box D measure.
    - did it miss
    shooter measure/ Box d success measure.
    -did it hit goalie.
    Box d measure/ minimal goalie measure.
    - was it saved by actual Goalie movement
    goalie measure
    -did it go in
    Shooter measure
    - was there a rebound.
    loss of possession or 2nd phase pros session
    the gain is a measure of player.

    -2nd phase is viewed to next corsi possibility or giveaway.

    If the procession is lost.
    - does the coach change lines.
    Measure of coach not players.
    - do they pressure at top of blue
    - does the puck clear 1st zone
    - are they forwards in back check position
    - do they pressure at own blue or allow entry
    all possible give away take away points.

    resulting in a measured Zone entry.

    in the zone by entry or by FO win.
    -movement to release of puck orturnover.

    ON and ON!

    You want me to accept Corsi as a measure of a player.

    fuck off!
    I did not work in industrial plants
    and petroleum industry sites.
    technically reviewing all equipment added.
    Industrial manufacturing one of teams.
    (design solutions)
    Review retrofit!
    on Junior ENG fuck ups all thru fort Mac and Emnonton.
    Predict the massive fire at Albian sands
    and
    have the MRC morons not fucking listen.
    there is to much complexity in dynamic action.
    but play is repetitive and we are slowly generating the tools and numbers of measure.
    we nee to reognize baseline values and throw away the noise.the progression is fun to watch.

    On this sight you guys grab on to stuff that has to simplistic or is failed in data or holds no value.

    what i want:

    Goalies:
    -Good steady squared movement.
    so the puck hits them.
    -Good glove blocker positioning
    so the puck hits them
    -Good giove blocker movement
    for6 hole and 7 hole saving
    -Elevated trunk length
    for a reduction in holes over the shoulder
    -Good hip movement
    for slight pad side to side
    saving the low shot puck.
    - movement while stick is held in strong 5 hole cover
    Hoefully resulting in a high ave% inside 25 ft.
    - the ability to pick up puck at range.
    -strong tracking
    - strong post positioning.
    - good player tendency study
    -so good memory.
    As result strong inside 25ft and good deflection skills.

    D men:
    - Strong back skater.
    -smooth forward skater.
    - able to straddle and hold
    - kick foot turn on board entry.
    - strong leverage and engage
    -Strong procession skills.
    - good Stick reach and lane control
    - Good blocking ability
    -Godd path clearing ability
    - able to physically pressure at top of box.
    - able to side engage and drive.
    - good eye read
    - strong practiced touch pass.
    As a result:
    popr zone entry; Strong box protection;
    poor shooting %
    and quick puck transition.

    Forwards:
    wholly fuck
    PPG;
    EVG;
    PKGA;
    Takeaway/giveaway
    short corsi x,y didstance.
    strong 2nd phase retrieval
    Strong positional reads.
    good pack check
    positional read in Dzone.
    Strong FO%

    quite honestly:
    Seeing Malhotra Shelter the Sedins.
    A break even tough ZS 4th line is gold.
    with a variance of 59 to 41% in FO%
    that can get into 5 more processions for the other side.
    Mact Acquired
    Gordon
    then traded for Hendricks.
    I watched Khaira put on a Defensive show in the AHL at end of year that has me
    wanting him on 4RW with slotting up the line-up as he goes along.

    Boston protecting the fuck out of the box.
    Charal Ference; ……..

    We brought in Ference a top 20
    He and petry were quite effective on first comp.
    Marincin showed up and he was top 10 at protecting the box.

    Then Mact get 2 of the top 15 and another rtop 30
    Nikitin
    Fayne
    Aulie

    Mact unloaded the worst goalie inside 25ft last year
    and
    brings in a top 5 save % inside 25 ft.
    Scrivens

    then the possession issues from the bottom and lack of even scoring
    Brings in Perron top 35 Forward evg
    Now we have 1-3 covered.
    Hall; Eberle; Perron

    RNH is developing
    Gagner for Purcell top 40 EVG RW
    Pouliot brought in top 40 EVG LW
    PRNH; Purcell; Pouliot

    yak is now on the 3rd level of EVG need.

    What we Lack is Centers with good FO%

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Perron-XXX-Purcell
    Pouliot-XXX-Yak
    Hendricks-Gordon-XXX
    Gaxdic-XXX

    Ference-Petry
    nikitin-Fayne
    Marincin-XXX
    Aulie

    Scrivens
    Fasth

    It is funny my priority for this year was Niskinin; Bellimore; Fayne; Pouliot; Boyle.
    when they went for Nikitin
    i went wholly F……..
    then looked at etas hockey……
    Behind the net……….
    Comp paiings and
    Situation and went
    the best 2nd comp choice in game.
    Signed Nikitin
    then got Draisatl
    traded for Purcell
    then got Fayne and poulit.

    I was over the top.

    I talked about aulie getting messed up in TB.
    with a young Mechanical engineer flames fan.
    Who was a test pilot
    for MacDon all thru Southern USA.
    to this day he is still pissed about Aulie.
    duple of weeks before thought that is young Dman that aaas water.
    Saifd to the young eng.
    Some team should take a chance on him.
    Walked in wednesday.
    All he said was FUCKER!
    Keep on working MACT!

    Greatest post in the history of internet.

  138. Woodguy says:

    limit,

    The fact that Pts (Crosby, Getzlaf, Giroux), EVP/60 (Getzlaf, Perry, Hall), and IPP (Hall, Crosby, Tavares) puts universally recognized star players at the top of the list while 5v5Corsi (Kopitar, Muzzin, Bergeron), 5v5RelCorsi (Giodano, Neal, Voracek), 5v5AdjCorsi (Giordano, Brodie, Backland) puts very good but not necessarily the best players at the top of the list suggests to me that although corsi has value, Pts have a stronger relationship to offence than corsi and therefore have higher credibility (weight) than corsi (which is useful as a secondary tool, similar to an extension of the +/- concept at identifying 2-way contributions but with the advantage of a larger sample size)?

    That really depends on what you are trying to measure.

    You said “Pts have a stronger relationship to offence than corsi and therefore had higher credibility (weight) than corsi”

    This is true in that players who score a lot of points are famous.

    It can be argue that looking at the RelCor (along with other metrics) will find the very good, but not famous players (because they don’t score a lot) in the NHL and help identify an under valued player.

    You are essentially saying “points a player scores has a strong relationship to points that a player scores” which of course is true.

    What the possession metric try to find out is “how do team wins”, rather than “how do they score”

    Given that high 5v5 close corsi/fenwick teams dominate in the playoffs,its worth figuring out.

    The questions these days are centered around “can you take a good corsi player, drop him on a bad corsi team and have him repeat his results”? In other words, is it team tactics or players who drive corsi?

    Its probably heavily weighted to tactics and coaching, but players must have a significant role because you often see the same group near the top year after year, much like points.

    LAK is an interesting study of this.

    Year after year they lead the corsi parade (or close to top), yet their regular season results vary.

    Adding Gaborik, they have added “finishing ability” and have increased their ability to turn corsis into goals.

    NJD on the other hand is also a dominate corsi team and has missed the playoffs two years in a row.

    They use a system that stifles the opposing team’s corsi’s to win the corsi battle, but drops the number of overall corsi events. They also suffer from Kings Syndrome and don’t turn their corsis into goals as often as most teams.

    They just added Cammalerri who is one of those rare players who sustains a high SH% (12.2% for career) and he should help them in that department.

  139. admiralmark says:

    I can’t help when looking at the team as it’s assembled today to think of what shape is this “rebuild” in really? We seem to be on the cusp to finding out what the truth is about a lot of the players they are counting on as being key cogs. The question I ask myself is.. with the team spending right up to the cap this year, is it a bad sign to the rebuild if they finish in the bottom 10 teams in the league this year?

    Last season they weren’t ready for a push and i believe internally they held back for one more high end draft pick. But this season has a different feel. So much cap $$ has now been allocated.. Are these bets good enough to push this team at or near a playoff berth?

    Is there enough flexibility with the existing contracts to make the right moves over the next 2-3 years to plug necessary holes? Or is this team now completely reliant on the developmental system to come through big time?

    Don’t get me wrong I like plenty of the prospects. But they usually don’t develop as quickly as hoped and a scorched earth rebuild apparently doesn’t either. This is going to require yet more patience.. i wonder if the Collective Oiler nation has enough left for MacT to survive?

  140. Shau-co says:

    Thanks to Woodguy and Ricki, the comments in this post are Epic!

    I feel so much more comfortable under MacT’s guidance and love the direction he has provided. Always agreed that he is a smart guy and love how the Oilers are finally starting to use statistics to supplement what they see by eye.

    My only big picture concern out of this post and the comments (and actually many of the posts prior to this in general) is the lack of attention on the need to upgrade the defence. I don’t mean by adding more defensemen but improving the quality of what they already have. To me, this is the biggest glaring hole in the lineup. They have lots of 3-7 defensemen but I’m still not convinced they have any 1-2 defensemen. Any one of Nurse, Klefbom or Marincin might become this but they need a stop gap No. 2 defensemen as badly as they need a stop-gap 2nd line centre.

  141. limit says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks for your insights, good stuff! Gaborik had a near-MVP playoffs yet had a negative CorsiRel. If I filter for career SH% 14% or higher min 100goals AND 2013-14 CorsiRel > 11 (ie top 10 percentile for CareerSH% AND 2013/14RelCorsi), the list has 4 names pretty elite: Toews, Crosby, Thornton, Jagr (Marchand, Jussi Jokinen, Kunitz almost make it though)

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