KINGS OF LEON

I wonder what the Edmonton Oilers’ scouts thought when they first laid eyes on Leon Draisaitl. He was young—On 10 September 2012 when Cody Nickolet raved about him, Leon was 16—but he was also a perfect fit. The best big center since Jason Arnott (who was also born in October, 21 years before Leon) has a lot in common with the new man.

  • Height: LD (6.01), JA (6.03 source: Hockey Register)
  • Weight: LD (209), JA (220)
  • Arnott scoring draft year: 56GP, 41-57-98 1.75
  • Draisaitl scoring draft year: 64GP, 38-67-105 1.64
  • Arnott NHL rookie: 78GP, 33-35-68
  • Draisaitl NHLE: 82GP, 15-25-40

matty twitterThe scouts loved him early, they loved him late, the Edmonton Oilers never stopped loving the idea of Leon Draisaitl. I’ve been observing this team for decades of drafting, and would guess (I’ve only seen one Oiler list, 1979, courtesy Oil Change) this year’s list went Ekblad-Draisaitl at the top. Maybe they had Leon third and Sam Reinhart No. 2, but the force was strong on this one.

I expect the Oilers’ brass feels pretty damn good about Leon Draisaitl right now. Hell, they traded Sam Gagner before the paint was dry and we’re two weeks later pretty much and they haven’t hired another center. Craig MacTavish is famous for a lot of things, one being his name (which in some circles means entering the fray helmetless, unprotected), and it looks like Edmonton’s GM is going to Craig MacTavish his center depth chart this coming season. The Edmonton Oilers are the Kings of Leon.

THE NUMBERS GAME

The Oilers have a group of people who run analytics for them in regard to the draft. Michael Parkatti from Boys on the Bus is one of them, he’s a guest on the Lowdown today. I’m truly fascinated by this stuff, because there IS a connection between numbers and success. If you look back in Oilers draft history, I doubt the team would have drafted Boyd Devereaux where they did if an analytics department existed at that time. It’s a big damn deal, getting your picks right. Hell, even just improving your chances of a hit 5% is a monster. I suspect the current state of the Oilers procurement department goes like this:

  • Scouts travel the Northern hem. looking for draft eligible talent.
  • Analytics group runs the numbers (I’m not sure if a mid-season and end of season report would be best, or just final final) and delivers a list.
  • Men in hotel rooms argue until their brains are weary and their feet smell over the merits of Michael Bunting versus Zach Nagelvoort.
  • The list is finalized, everyone sleeps on it, final arguments are made, and the draft proceeds.

This of course brings up all kinds of questions. How often do the scouts and stats agree? Well, I think we can answer that in our own rudimentary way, with NHLE. Here are the NHL equivalencies for players in the last two entry drafts. We know the numbers like Marco Roy based on our conversations with Michael one year ago. Here’s the list:

NHLE’S FOR POSITION PLAYERS DRAFTED BY OILERS, 2013 AND 2014 (per 82GP)

  1. Leon Draisaitl 15-25-40
  2. Tyler Vesel 15-17-32
  3. Marco Roy 10-15-25
  4. Anton Slepyshev 18-6-24
  5. Jackson Houck 8-12-20
  6. Greg Chase 6-11-17
  7. Evan Campbell 5-10-15
  8. Darnell Nurse 4-11-15
  9. Liam Coughlin 4-6-10
  10. Kyle Platzer 2-6-8
  11. Ben Betker 0-2-2

I imagine the numbers adored Leon (I’ll ask Michael this morning) and this Vesel kid is a player to watch (I noted him on the summer 20). Interesting to note that Greg Chase was mid-pack by the NHLE’s a year ago, and that Coughlin cleared Platzer, who has many fans among Oiler observers on this blog. I don’t have Bogdan Yakimov on this list, he didn’t play in an NHLE-able league, but I suspect he would have been somewhere between SlipSlappy and Jackson Houck.

BL3

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Friday! Today’s show is going to rock, we have some excellent guests for you. At 10, Steve Lansky joins me from Toronto City Hall from the Pan-Am Games one-year-away kick-off. We’ll talk Rob Ford (not really), Blue Jays and more. After that, it’s Joseph Pedrola, Tourism Development Manager, Edmonton Tourism. He’ll talk about YEG Soccer Showdown, from noon to 1 today, in Centennial Plaza (downtown by the Public Library). We’ll also talk about some huge events that hit Edmonton this summer.

In hour two, Michael Parkatti joins us to talk about the draft and free agency. Andrew Bucholtz from 55-yard line is slated for later in the hour and we’ll also chat World Cup.

10-1260 on text, @Lowetide_ via twitter. Looking forward to it!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

101 Responses to "KINGS OF LEON"

  1. book¡je says:

    Yesterday, my brother-who only knows you from your radio show- said that you remind him of John Short.

  2. danny says:

    Had the Oilers not won that game a couple season ago, and they got their guy Monahan in the draft, do you think they would have still drafted Draisatl over Bennett?

    I think the thought of Draisatl foing to Calgary, and them having those two big guys down the middle was a big factor in their decision making.

    As it stands today, who would you guys rather having right now?

    Monahan + Bennett
    or
    Draisatl + Nurse
    or
    Monahan + Draisatl

  3. Lowetide says:

    book¡je:
    Yesterday, my brother-who only knows you from your radio show- said that you remind him of John Short.

    That’s a top drawer compliment.

  4. Marcus Oilerius says:

    The 1996 NHL draft was the first time I questioned the Oilers drafting on my own. It wasn’t very intelligent questioning – I simply looked at Daniel Briere’s point totals and wondered how the heck we ended up with Devereaux – but after seeing how many of the fans openly questioned the Oilers following the 1995 draft, I felt pretty cocky in my opinions. It also helped that I was an older, more confident teenager who knew everything in the world.

  5. HiddenDarts says:

    danny,

    Gotta go with Draisaitl and Monahan. Love me some Nurse, but you said “as of today”, and I feel like Nurse is at the very least 1 year away.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    danny:
    Had the Oilers not won that game a couple season ago, and they got their guy Monahan in the draft, do you think they would have still drafted Draisatl over Bennett?

    I think the thought of Draisatl foing to Calgary, and them having those two big guys down the middle was a big factor in their decision making.

    As it stands today, who would you guys rather having right now?

    Monahan + Bennettor
    Draisatl + Nurse
    or
    Monahan + Draisatl

    None of the above.

    VN and LD.

    And, it’s cheating to take players off the board already. Otherwise, we might as well take McKinnon.

  7. Pouzar says:

    Nurse and LD all day everyday.

  8. danny says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: None of the above.

    VN and LD.

    And, it’s cheating to take players off the board already. Otherwise, we might as well take McKinnon.

    I said if they hadn’t won that final game that vaulted them past Calgary, because it was strongly suggested that Monahan was their guy… but they did and settled on Nurse (supposedly Monahan was higher, and we know Nikushin wasn’t)

  9. book¡je says:

    Lowetide: That’s a top drawer compliment.

    Absolutly – that’s why I passed it along.

  10. Woodguy says:

    and it looks like Edmonton’s GM is going to Craig MacTavish his center depth chart this coming season.

    Its a little to early to make that call.

    They haven’t done anything, but its still early.

    Also,

    Avs and ROR talks not going well.

    http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2014/07/10/report-avs-oreilly-likely-headed-to-arbitration/

    One hopes MacT is in there pitching.

    Also,

    Patrick Roy said :

    ““Brad Stuart on defense will provide stability,” Roy said. “He’s gong to play some big minutes and can play with Erik Johnson on the top pair. We’re very confident with these additions. I htink we improved the team in an important way.””

    http://fansided.com/2014/07/10/patrick-roy-impressed-avalanche-acquisitions-offseason/#!bcVUJy

    Hahahahahahahhahahahhahahaha

    The Avs need D.

    Please to be in there pitching MacT

  11. danny says:

    Eliminating Nikushin, because EDM did pass on him, I think I’d rather Monahan and Draisatl out of the three scenarios. Having Nuge / Drais and Monahan down the middle, combined with the wingers… wow.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Brad Stuart’s Relative Corsi from last 7 years + playoffs:

    2007-2008 Playoffs -15
    2007-2008 Season 0.5
    2008-2009 Playoffs -17.9
    2008-2009 Season -10.9
    2009-2010 Playoffs -4.7
    2009-2010 Season -6.7
    2010-2011 Playoffs 6.2
    2010-2011 Season -13.4
    2011-2012 Playoffs -36.5
    2011-2012 Season -8.4
    2012-2013 Playoffs -4.2
    2012-2013 Season -14.2
    2013-2014 Playoffs -26.6
    2013-2014 Season -8

    Patrick Roy said :

    ““Brad Stuart on defense will provide stability,” Roy said. “He’s gong to play some big minutes and can play with Erik Johnson on the top pair. We’re very confident with these additions. I htink we improved the team in an important way.””

    Hahahahaha!!

    MacT there are two very noobish rookies running COL, go in there and drop a couple of boat anchors on them please and bring back ROR.

  13. Gino says:

    It’s becoming clear Draisaitl (who should be but won’t be playing another year of junior) will be our second line center. Can he be any worse than Gagner in his defensive assignments/coverage? Can he live up to his NHLE, if so the offense he brings is equal to Gagner.

  14. danny says:

    Woodguy:
    LT, comment stuck in moderation

    Woodguy:
    LT, comment stuck in moderation

    I think I just approved it… (not sure haven’t tried before)

  15. jp says:

    Woodguy:

    Patrick Roy said :

    ““Brad Stuart on defense will provide stability,” Roy said. “He’s gong to play some big minutes and can play with Erik Johnson on the top pair. We’re very confident with these additions. I htink we improved the team in an important way.””

    Hahahahaha!!

    MacT there are two very noobish rookies running COL, go in there and drop a couple of boat anchors on them please and bring back ROR.

    Wow. Seriously, get on that MacT.

  16. Rondo says:

    danny,

    A couple of teams passed on Valeri Nichushkin and there was a reason for it.

  17. rickithebear says:

    Tyler dellow:
    With a look a toews the way it should be!

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/toews-makes-everyone-around-him-better/

  18. jp says:

    Lowetide:

    Height: LD (6.01), JA (6.03 source: Hockey Register)
    Weight: LD (209), JA (220)
    Arnott scoring draft year: 56GP, 41-57-98 1.75
    Draisaitl scoring draft year: 64GP, 38-67-105 1.64
    Arnott NHL rookie: 78GP, 33-35-68
    Draisaitl NHLE: 82GP, 15-25-40

    I guess Draisaitl scored at a better rate than Arnott if you take into account the era effects. Not that I’m expecting 68 pts – would be quite happy if he reaches that NHLE. Looks like he’ll be a real nice player before long though.

    Also, any idea what size Arnott was when drafted (or was it actually 6’3″, 220?)?

  19. Jordan says:

    Woodguy:
    Patrick Roy said :

    ““Brad Stuart on defense will provide stability,” Roy said. “He’s gong to play some big minutes and can play with Erik Johnson on the top pair. We’re very confident with these additions. I htink we improved the team in an important way.””

    Hahahahaha!!

    MacT there are two very noobish rookies running COL, go in there and drop a couple of boat anchors on them please and bring back ROR.

    Who do the Oilers have to trade? Colorado is under an internal cap, they would want our cheap young D. MacT won’t trade Jultz or Petry until he knows what they are, and is sure that one or two of the prospects bubbling under are ready. Marincin is too valuable (read: good and cheap) to trade, Niki & fayne are new hires, and Ferrence is the captain.

    Seriously. Who. Do. You. Trade.

    Musil + Gernat + Arco + Pick (2016 1st)?

    Could be a very nice trade for both sides, but whatever contract they sign will be big – how can the Oilers absorb another player on a 6M+ deal annually?

    Like the player, not sure the money or assets work for an effective trade.

  20. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: MacT there are two very noobish rookies running COL, go in there and drop a couple of boat anchors on them please and bring back ROR.

    Musil!!! Heheh. Also, I read that RyJo is unhappy about how talks are (not) progressing with CBJ.

    Any idea why STL was only willing to spend $2.7M on Sobotka, and then spent almost the identical amount on Ott ($2.6M)? It leaves them with $3.4M in cap space, which they seem to be very particular about.

  21. PaperKurtRussell says:

    If we ever get in real cap trouble, hopefully Leon can help out and HO-HO-Hold the payments! :-)

    Seriously though, he is a great fit for this group. Looking back at Nuge vs Landeskog… sure, Nuge may be better offensively, but every team needs a Landeskog type. Now we have ours. Would be great to see MacT add a veteran to play the middle short term of course.

  22. John Chambers says:

    Bunny Lebowski – let me just get to a cash machine.

    Also, Dallas has count ‘em 6 actual NHL centre icemen (Seguin, Spezza, Eakin, Peverley, Horcoff, and Fiddler). They have about 8 or 9 million bucks and still need to sign Roussel, Eakin, and Dillon.

    Ideally we could swing a deal to take Peverley’s contract (1 year left for $3M & change) off their hands for a draft pick. He’s only just turned 32 and puts up nice numbers. Would be a very very good 3rd line C.

    I’m sure Dallas’ ideal is to trade Horcoff’s disproportionate $5.5M cap hit. I think he would make a good Oiler.

  23. Gordies Elbow says:

    jp,

    According to his Oshawa Generals hockey card issued after the draft, Arnott was 6’3″, 193lbs. (Classic Games Card.)

  24. Gino says:

    jp,

    IMO for us to go after Ryan O’Reilly we would have to give something in return such as a top line winger. Would Perron + Marincin+ 2015 2nd round pick get it done.

  25. Ducey says:

    Not sure ROR is the right fit for EDM.

    He went out and got the offer sheet from Feaster last time for $5 Million per season. Now he is feuding with COL again.

    Now maybe COL are just being cheap bastards, but it seems likely that ROR wants to get PAID.

    Can’t see him not going UFA in two years unless someone drops a boatload of cash on him for a long time. It looks like that will be well north of $6 million a season.

    To obtain him from COL is going to cost some valuable assets (its not like COL has to trade him this year), just to have him here for 1.5 yrs.

    If it was the difference between winning a Cup or not, maybe you think about it. But the Oilers will be lucky to even make the playoffs in 2 yrs.

  26. misfit says:

    I know the Oilers were very high on Draisaitl for a long time, at least from the start of the year. Stu mentioned him by name on a number of occasions during interviews at the WJC and the top prospects game at least. But I can’t help but disagree with Matheson that they would’ve passed up Reinhart for the German if the opportunity presented itself.

    Either way, I’m glad Draisaitl is on our side. Ditto for Nurse. When you draft that high, you’re always going to leave talent on the board. Nichushkin and Ristolainen a year ago would look amazing as a part of this group, as would Bennett and Dal Colle, but you can only take one player with each pick. I think they were closer to taking Nichushkin last year than Bennett this year, and that’s also the pick I think we’re most likely to end up regretting, but it’s hard not to be excited about Nurse (even though he interviews like a young Ryan Smyth).

    I gotta go find a cash machine.

    EDIT – John Chambers, you quick bastard.

  27. Hammers says:

    Jordan: Who do the Oilers have to trade?Colorado is under an internal cap, they would want our cheap young D.MacT won’t trade Jultz or Petry until he knows what they are, and is sure that one or two of the prospects bubbling under are ready.Marincin is too valuable (read: good and cheap) to trade, Niki & fayne are new hires, and Ferrence is the captain.

    Seriously.Who.Do.You.Trade.

    Musil + Gernat + Arco + Pick (2016 1st)?

    Could be a very nice trade for both sides, but whatever contract they sign will be big – how can the Oilers absorb another player on a 6M+ deal annually?

    Like the player, not sure the money or assets work for an effective trade.

    You could go Perron + any of Gernat , Musil, or Hunt .You could also do either Marincin or Klefbom + a 2nd next year . You have to give up something to get an O’Reilly . He wouldn’t be cheap but he would be worth it .and I love MM , Klef & Perron .

  28. ChiliChunk says:

    John Chambers: Ideally we could swing a deal to take Peverley’s contract (1 year left for $3M & change) off their hands for a draft pick. He’s only just turned 32 and puts up nice numbers. Would be a very very good 3rd line C.

    It’s not certain that he’ll ever play again.

    http://starsblog.dallasnews.com/2014/07/rich-peverley-talks-to-the-musers-on-the-ticket-1310-heres-what-he-said.html/

  29. mumbai max says:

    I will not be popular for this idea, but I would move Eberle for O’reilly. Same production but a defensive center instead of a wing. Always an upgrade. Same money. Colorado have an abundance of centers, and one unhappy one, we have a shortage of centers, and depth at wing. If I was to choose a hole to have, it would be wing over center. I think that is a realistic deal that could fly. It would allow Leon to stay in Junior and come in next year as 3C.

  30. nycoil says:

    The Coen Brothers film references are another great reason to come to this site.

    MacT = The Dude
    And he abides.

    Dean Lombardi = Jesus
    Don’t f*ck with the Jesus

    In this cap era, looking at what Chicago is doing, it’s really an astonishing, commendable feat what DL has accomplished in Tinseltown, with no major salary cap issues until time for the Kopitar extension. Yes, he’s had some luck, but wow.

    WG,
    The ROR idea sounds great, but what boat anchor D do we have to pitch to Colorado? Unfortunately I think even Roy/Sakic aren’t going to go for Ference for ROR. So what would you propose? The whole bunch of lesser assets someone proposed isn’t likely to get it done. I’d do Klef +2nd though. Would you? Problem is, the Oilers would actually have to clear cap space because I don’t think ROR is signing for less than $6.5M per. I just don’t see it given his history and his father, etc.

    With Dubinsky getting paid $5.85M for 6 years, CBJ has gone from looking great to jeez they have a lot of long-term, big-money deals for at-their-peak and near-decline-phase players. I wonder how much RyJo is going to want to get paid now. Anisimov may indeed shake loose if RyJo gets paid this summer, but the only real excess prospects the Oil have are on the blue and CBJ looks pretty solid back there. Not sure there is a fit that makes sense because I wouldn’t give up Eberle or Yak for Anisimov. Too bad Gagner had the season he did this year. He and some lesser pieces might have been enough after the lockout year.

  31. Gino says:

    mumbai max,

    Why? Your opinions should not be a popularity contest at this site. A bold move however unpopular sometimes has to be made. The Oilers lack center depth and have depth with wingers and a top winger would be required to go in the other direction to make this happen.

  32. jp says:

    mumbai max:
    I will not be popular for this idea, but I would move Eberle for O’reilly. Same production but a defensive center instead of a wing. Always an upgrade. Same money. Colorado have an abundance of centers, and one unhappy one, we have a shortage of centers, and depth at wing. If I was to choose a hole to have, it would be wing over center. I think that is a realistic deal that could fly. It would allow Leon to stay in Junior and come in next year as 3C.

    I’d be on board with that, assuming O’Reilly would take 6X6M.

  33. John Chambers says:

    ChiliChunk,

    We were not aware of that, dude.

  34. Lois Lowe says:

    I am a nihilist when it comes to the Oilers acquiring C depth. I believe in nothing.

  35. Ducey says:

    jp: I’d be on board with that, assuming O’Reilly would take 6X6M.

    As set out in the story linked by Woodguy, if he would take 6 x 6M he would likely be signed by now.

  36. Jujhar says:

    Why is Moss not on this team. Good possession numbers AND hes big. everyone is happy.

  37. Jon K says:

    There are so many unknowns at this point in considering a trade for ROR. We don’t know if he’s looking short term, long term, what kind of money. Given the history with the Avs, it seems that you’d need to offer $7.5 to get him to agree long term, as a guess.

    In terms of what the Avs would want, they desperately need defense. Would they want Justin Schultz, Klefbom or Nurse? Would the Oilers consider any of those trades for ROR?

    He’s an ideal target, but the obstacles seem insurmountable.

    EDIT: As noted in the article cited by Woodguy, it seems that the Avs want ROR to sign long term at the same hit as Duchene ($6 million). Given what’s happening now, it seems more likely that he’s looking for a long term deal closer to the dollars I suggested above.

  38. AZOIL says:

    Lebron to the Cavaliers, in case anyone cares!

  39. misfit says:

    O’Reilly seems like a major headache come time to negotiate his contract, but he’s such a great fit player-wise that he’s worth that hassle. Ryan Smyth was the same. Negotiations never went smoothly, even before the dispute that ultimately got him traded to the Island. ROR would cost a fortune in assets to acquire, which, coupled with the fact that he seems like a legitimate risk to walk the moment he becomes a UFA and will cost you full value up until then, makes him a little more of a risk to acquire.

    I wouldn’t trade Eberle for him, but the list of assets that were off limits for him isn’t a long one.

  40. justDOit says:

    Jujhar:
    Why is Moss not on this team.Good possession numbers AND hes big.everyone is happy.

    He has reportedly signed with a Swiss team.

  41. russ99 says:

    If we’re moving Ebs, it should only be for a true #1 D, like Subban or Keith.

    O’Reilly is just not a good enough return, and with RNH and Draisaitl going to be getting the lion’s share of the scoring line center work in a year or two, that’s not really a need position moving forward.

  42. Pouzar says:

    If you trade for ROR you trade from the abundance of defenceman we have in the system. You don’t trade from the area you weak in which is scoring among other things.

  43. wintoon says:

    Oiler fans are starting to sound like Leaf fans. They want to be in on every possible player move.

    Please realize that ROR presents some serious challenges for Oilers management. He is a perennial pain at negotiation time, he wants to be paid full dollars+, his father fits into the equation etc. I wonder how Bobboy Clark views the Lindros family affair? This could be the updated version of that horror story.

    Bottom line is I can’t see the Oilers being able to acquire him without creating other holes in the on-ice product.

  44. matt says:

    Jordan: MacT won’t trade Jultz or Petry until he knows what they are, and is sure that one or two of the prospects bubbling under are ready. Marincin is too valuable (read: good and cheap) to trade, Niki & fayne are new hires, and Ferrence is the captain.
    Seriously. Who. Do. You. Trade.
    Musil + Gernat + Arco + Pick (2016 1st)?

    I take your point. But damn what a good fit. The Oilers have ~$4M free, no? And ROR would require ~$6M? And Petry is $3M? And Avs are budget-sensitive? Petry/Marincin + Arco + 2015 2nd +?? I balk at the the 2015 1st, see the 2016 1st as too remote, but don’t think just a 2nd gets this done.

  45. justDOit says:

    Follow

    Andy Strickland
    ‏@andystrickland
    Sources also confirm Sobotka’s 3 year #KHL contract will pay him $4.3 million annually. Equivalent to about $8 million in the #NHL

    Not sure if Andy has that tax assessment right or not, but that’s a huge difference in take-home.

  46. Woodguy says:

    danny:
    I think I just approved it… (not sure haven’t tried before)

    Thanks Danny.

    I like the new avatar as well.

    HAL is always so ominous.

  47. jp says:

    Ducey: As set out in the story linked by Woodguy, if he would take 6 x 6M he would likely be signed by now.

    My bad, I didn’t read the link. I remembered his last contract as 2 yrs 10M, but forgot it was back loaded. His qualifying offer is 6.5M ffs. So yeah, at 7 or 7.5M that’s a pass.

  48. thejonrmcleod says:

    justDOit,

    I believe Moss has an out-clause if he gets an offer from an NHL team. But I don’t think the Oilers would offer him much money since he’d probably be on the fourth line if everyone’s healthy. But it would be the Cadillac of fourth lines: Hendricks-Gordon-Moss.

  49. Woodguy says:

    Jordan: Who do the Oilers have to trade?Colorado is under an internal cap, they would want our cheap young D.MacT won’t trade Jultz or Petry until he knows what they are, and is sure that one or two of the prospects bubbling under are ready.Marincin is too valuable (read: good and cheap) to trade, Niki & fayne are new hires, and Ferrence is the captain.

    Seriously.Who.Do.You.Trade.

    Musil + Gernat + Arco + Pick (2016 1st)?

    Could be a very nice trade for both sides, but whatever contract they sign will be big – how can the Oilers absorb another player on a 6M+ deal annually?

    Like the player, not sure the money or assets work for an effective trade.

    Never assume anyone is off the table, especially if a player of ROR’s caliber and age is coming back.

    I do Shultz or Petry + in a heartbeat.

    I do Nurse + too.

    All that assumes ROR signs for 5-6 years.

  50. thejonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    Sometimes HAL 9000 is stubborn about approving comments. “Approve the submitted comment, HAL.”

  51. Woodguy says:

    jp: My bad, I didn’t read the link. I remembered his last contract as 2 yrs 10M, but forgot it was back loaded. His qualifying offer is 6.5M ffs. So yeah, at 7 or 7.5M that’s a pass.

    With the cap going where it is I sign him at 7.5MM x 6 in a heartbeat.

    Teams like COL and EDM are going to handcuff themselves if they refuse to pay players more than Hall and Duchesne.

    They signed those contracts to get more $ earlier and sacrificing more later.

    Top tier players are starting to go for 10.5 MM so holding yourself to 6MM is not a good idea if you want to add top tier.

    ROR is damn close to top tier and 7.5 is reasonable.

  52. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Woodguy:
    I do Nurse + too.

    I wouldn’t. Nurse is athletic enough to potentially be something really special, but more importantly, we’re going to need guys like him who can contribute while still on their ELC.

    Schultz though? Any day of the week.

    Not sure about Perron. ROR is now in his second consecutive contract dispute. I’m worried he’d be the kind of guy who’d sign and then demand a trade after one bad season.

  53. theres oil in virginia says:

    mumbai max: Same production but a defensive center instead of a wing.

    Not hardly. ROR was a career 8.8% shooter in 265 games prior to last season. Last season he shot 13.9% in 80 games and scored a career high 28 goals. Eberle is a career 14.3% shooter and shot 14.0% last season over 80 games and scored 28 goals. (Now mind you, he doesn’t shoot 14% every season, so it’s not as if there’s no variance here, but still…)

    One guy shoots his career average, while the other guy shoots a full 5 percentage points higher than his career average and they have the same production.

    Is ROR an 8.8% shooter or a 13.9% shooter? Did he suddenly just get it? (Did Eberle suddenly just get it in 2011-12, when he shot 18.9%?) Place your bets.

  54. theres oil in virginia says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Woodguy,

    Sometimes HAL 9000 is stubborn about approving comments. “Approve the submitted comment, HAL.”

    I’m sorry Darcy. I’m afraid I can’t do that.

  55. stevezie says:

    Marcus Oilerius: I wouldn’t. Nurse is athletic enough to potentially be something really special, but more importantly, we’re going to need guys like him who can contribute while still on their ELC.

    I don’t disagree with this, but I think we need a C more than we need a good young D right now. I think we can spare one of Klef, Marincin, Nurse and Schultz. Nurse is the one I like the most so I don’t start there, but if it came to it, I’d trade him for ROR.

    The positional depth within the organization is not even close- and that’s assuming Leon becomes who we hope on the timeline that we hope. If he’s Daymond Langkow that would be a great career and he still wouldn’t help out at C for years.

  56. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    So now that the 1OVs are in the bank, the guy who yukked it up when he left town wants back in or at least his brands want it bad. And one of the #1s may be for sale.

    (No not Pronger. Not Yak.)

  57. nelson88 says:

    Ducey: Not sure ROR is the right fit for EDM.He went out and got the offer sheet from Feaster last time for $5 Million per season. Now he is feuding with COL again.Now maybe COL are just being cheap bastards, but it seems likely that ROR wants to get PAID.Can’t see him not going UFA in two years unless someone drops a boatload of cash on him for a long time. It looks like that will be well north of $6 million a season.To obtain him from COL is going to cost some valuable assets (its not like COL has to trade him this year), just to have him here for 1.5 yrs.If it was the difference between winning a Cup or not, maybe you think about it. But the Oilers will be lucky to even make the playoffs in 2 yrs.

    This. Unless he is surprisingly cheap to obtain and/or sign; neither of which are likely, the Oilers would be wise to stay away from ROR.

  58. ashley says:

    I would have preferred Monahan last year. So would have the Oilers, but he was gone, and Nurse was plan B. D picked that high is a risky bet. So far so good, but too early to say how it will all play out.

    If we had the opportunity to take Monahan, I would have been more comfortable with the Draisatl pick this year. The Draisaitl pick is risky in a different way in that you leave Bennett on the board who was ranked number one on several draft lists. Skating/speed is an issue with Leon vs Bennett. Also, Bennett has a lot of charisma and character. The Oilers left a great package for the Flames to pick.

    I hope it works out well for us, but it is entirely possible that Bennett turns into something like Duchene (plus leadership), and Draisatl more like JvR. If that’s the way it plays out, I’d rather have the Duchene player.

    It will be interesting to watch Monahan this year. His stats suggest he may have set himself up for a sophomore slump.

  59. Younger Oil says:

    Looking back, getting Nurse and Draisaitl is probably the best thing that could have happened for this organization. If we drafted Nichushkin, then we likely wouldn’t have gotten Perron, who has been a godsend, and if we got Lindholm or Monohan, this year MacT probably would have traded up this year using gods know what to get Ekblad, or traded away the third pick entirely.

  60. FastOil says:

    I think ROR is a very good player, but he wants more than he’s worth for points doesn’t he? Is he going to score 60 + per year and drive play going forward? I don’t think that’s clear. I am also no fan of ROR’s attitude. He comes across as self centred and divisive.

  61. John Chambers says:

    FastOil,

    I agree with you. Teams need to be willing to pay $7M+ for established elite-level talent that’s either top-10 Norris, or point-per-game production.

    Because the Oilers have been so deprived at centre making a pitch for O’Reilly seems like a good idea, but signing him above $6M probably means you can’t afford to retain Yakupov or sign Marincin when his contract comes due, etc.

    A luxury we can’t afford. Pass.

  62. jp says:

    Woodguy: With the cap going where it is I sign him at 7.5MM x 6 in a heartbeat.

    Teams like COL and EDM are going to handcuff themselves if they refuse to pay players more than Hall and Duchesne.

    They signed those contracts to get more $ earlier and sacrificing more later.

    Top tier players are starting to go for 10.5 MM so holding yourself to 6MM is not a good idea if you want to add top tier.

    ROR is damn close to top tier and 7.5 is reasonable.

    Yeah, I’ve kind of been snoozing on the dollar amounts of this years UFA contracts. And agreed O’Reilly is pretty top notch – 7.5M really is reasonable in the current context.

    Those Hall, RNH and Eberle deals are looking awfully nice, at least collectively.

  63. Deadman Waiting says:

    Of all the Coen brother movies, Barton Fink and The Big L are the two I don’t naturally warm to, though I have to admit “it’s down there somewhere, let me take another look” ranks right up there with “I love the smell of Napalm in the morning” and Alec Baldwin leaning back on his motel bed rifling through a pilfered wallet: “Looky, we got a million dollars. We got a million… Brazilian dollars. Absolutely worthless.”

    The last item thrills mainly in the delivery, which rivals the soap-loving space cat mirror scene from The Truman Show. I wasn’t especially fond of Laura Linney in this movie, but I loved the delighted–smug–buoyant–self-satisfied–guilty(ish) way she jumps out of bed after her (quasi) multi-consensual affair with one of her husband’s sexology assistants. She nails five different emotions in the space of thirty frames, expressing more with one naked leg hitting the floor than any three minute heartache of Helena Bonham Carter in Howards End where the emotions lumber along with all the haste and deliberation of a Brontosaurus catching on the tip of his upstretched tongue his first-ever snowflake.

    On another note, I read the other night a comment from one of the cast members of the original Star Trek movie about why it sucked so much: the director was striving for the stately pacing and awe of Kubrick’s 2001. Good lord. James T. Kirk served up with a side-order of balletic detachment. Huh. I wonder why that didn’t take.

    My own taste is funny because Ebert describes Miami Blues as a film struggling to find the right tone, and, of course, The Big L is the Coen brothers at the top of their game. Yet the former pulls me all the way in and the later movie doesn’t.

    ———

    The Krishna died of a broken finger?
    I mean, is that a homicide?

    Well, I guess he died of shock.

    Well, it hurts like hell …
    to have your finger bent back.
    My sister used to do it to me when I was a kid.

    Yeah, but you didn’t die.

    Now, if this was an accident …
    it would be simple assault, right?

    However…if the guy in the suede sport coat …
    knew that Krishnas had a bad habit of dying …
    every time you bent their finger back …

    -Murder one?

    -Yeah.

    [Having finished their investigation they head back out to the airport parking lot.]

    Since we’re in the neighborhood, let’s go get ourselves a couple of Kahuna burger happy meals.

    Hey, yeah … only they’re not called “Happy Meals”. That’s a McDonalds thing.

    Well what do they call it? [sarcastic] A “value” meal?

    Hell no! It’s called the “Kahuna Kommado Kit”.

    [repeats slowly] Kahuna Kommado Kit. Ah, I get it. Does it come with a Schick Titanium and free pair of see-through underpants?

    You betcha. Only they’re not totally invisible. You can refold the box into a cardboard Fruit-of-the-Loom waistband, minus the pouch.

    I can see it. Any two Krishnas could share one belt, but it sure ain’t gonna fit no Samoan …

    … you’d be surprised. I think the point there is … it’s damn big burger that comes in damn big box.

    With three fat slices of melty orange glow-the-dark Americium cheese?

    You betcha.

    ———

    Staples has a piece about age structure over at Cult today. Tambi didn’t have a youth cluster he could point to as ripe to receive the torch (in the proper unfolding of time).

    But I get it. If one ignores that point, one can also maintain happy fantasies about how the long the rebuild ought to have taken.

    The problem with Tambi is that he failed to grasp the magnitude of the looming logjam. You’ve got to start getting pieces in place as the youth cluster nears ripening into a credible group, because once they are actually on the cusp, you can’t replace a dozen members of the supporting cast in a single hectic off-season.

    It didn’t help that in addition the few temporizing moves he did make were mostly clunkers.

    If he had shown MacT’s sense of urgency in his last year—and comparable acumen—he would have exited the scene merely below average. It would have been even harder to make urgent decisions with Yak and Justin one year less proven, but it was doable. I think MacT has functioned fairly well with better clarity and too little time. Had he taken the reigns a year earlier, he would have need to function well with less clarity and more time. That can just as easily go sideways.

    The change in the conference structure has also brought clarity about the kind of team we need to build. As I’ve said before, It’s also a credit to Tambi that MacT wasn’t incapacitated by existing contracts. The situation he inherited forced MacT to bet the front porch on these new guys being as good as our analytics guys think they are. Tambi departed with our operation dicey rather than destitute.

    I’ve argued this before: Edmonton is a deeper ditch. Rebuilds simply take longer here. We’re pretty much on par attracting talent when our team is strong (or showing signs of becoming strong), but we’re way below par at attracting mid-career talent during a bust cycle. Who wants to play under a microscope at the pall of midnight?

    Breaking out of a bust cycle on the draft alone is a painfully slow process, to the point where if Taylor Hall already has one foot out the door before Dry Saddle has his giant toe on the ice, we might as well name our new arena The House of Usher.

    This is what gets on my nerves about people beating the drum of glum, glum, glum.

    Add “mistakes were made” to the pacing of Howards End and here we are. Perhaps in a more charismatic city a rebuild might last as long as the eternal half hour Kinsey spends pacing the foyer at the foot of the stairs. If anyone recalls that movie, after her little adventure, the voltage went up between the Kinseys forever and a day; their non-traditional tonic was bitter–sweet.

  64. Masamax says:

    I think this ROR stuff is a bit of a pipe dream. Let’s assume that we add him at 6.5/6. That leaves us with about 2.5 or 3 to sign Schultz this year. Next year? Maybe the cap rises to 74. Maybe. That leaves you about 8 to sign all of Petry, Yak, Marincin, and a backup goalie. If you can get bridge deals for the latter two you might be able to afford it but Petry walks for sure. At that point the Purcell and Pouliott contracts look mighty handcuffing.

  65. Doomoil says:

    I think people talking about ROR having an attitude problem probably haven’t been following Colorado contract negotiations the last few years.

  66. Deadman Waiting says:

    From Wikipedia:

    Tarantino explains that the idea “was basically to take like the oldest chestnuts that you’ve ever seen when it comes to crime stories—the oldest stories in the book…. You know, ‘Vincent Vega and Marsellus Wallace’s Wife’—the oldest story about…the guy’s gotta go out with the big man’s wife and don’t touch her. You know, you’ve seen the story a zillion times.”

    In case some people don’t know the movie Kinsey, it’s based on a true story, in which Kinsey (the big guy in his realm) espouses “open” relationships to such an extreme degree that when one of his research assistants asks him “hey, can I bang your wife” his sense of internal consistency demands his ascent.

    Maybe I gave this the appearance of developing organically, but it’s actually intended as a formal contrast under the hood.

  67. denny33 says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    I wouldn’t. Nurse is athletic enough to potentially be something really special, but more importantly, we’re going to need guys like him who can contribute while still on their ELC.
    ****************************************************************************************
    Agreed. Nurse is the crown jewel of the organization…he won’t be going anywhere.

  68. dessert1111 says:

    I don’t understand the thought that Draisatl would surely be better off with another year in junior. I would think he is comparable to RNH in his draft year as far as readiness — Draisatl is bigger and I think better at even strength, but RNH was more used to north american hockey.

    I think if he doesn’t look ready they will send him back, but I would bet he will make the team. Yes, part of that is the dire situation at centre, but I don’t think we can say in any certain terms that he would be better off in junior. If it’s true that the top 4 in this year’s draft were interchangeable on some teams’ lists, it’s reasonable that Draisatl could’ve gone first overall, and then we would almost certainly assume he would make the jump right away and probably be okay.

    The centre position is a risk, but I there are a few guys bubbling under who look like good fits, so if there isn’t anyone cheap to he had on a short term deal who looks certainly better than arco, I am happy if MacT stands pat and runs RNH-arco-Draisatl-Gordon-Lander. I wouldn’t want to give up anything besides second tier prospect and mid round draft pick for a stop gap C.

  69. Deadman Waiting says:

    While on the subject of fast food hamburgers, maybe I’ll mention how I came up with my throw-away joke about the infamous golden glow in the briefcase being due to a giant Kahuna burger with glow-in-the-dark Americium cheese slices (two Kommando Kits would fit snugly inside one briefcase, so maybe it was Mr and Mrs Wallace’s lunch order—as well as being the final salivary instalment in their “collect all seven” kommando belt promotion cycle).

    Long ago I was reading an article in The Sciences about the intricacies of the proposed Yucca mountain facility. This is a baby burger, mama burger, papa burger story. Baby burger is the HOT HOT HOT radioactive waste products. These are so hot they decay within a human lifespan. Papa burger are the radioactive waste products that keep on ticking, for hundreds of millions of years. The total radiation is extreme, but so spread out in time it’s not such a big problem.

    It’s mama burger that kills you.

    The longest-lived and most common isotopes of americium, 241Am and 243Am, have half-lives of 432.2 and 7,370 years, respectively.

    That’s fast enough to be HOT HOT, yet also long enough to outlive any practical containment structure.

    I love that shit. The real problem isn’t the Paris Hilton celebrity elements iodine or caesium or the long-lived Platonic plutonium, but the obscure Americium in the middle.

    I smuggled that joke into my briefcase full of glow-in-the-dark invisible briefs.

    Dilbert Creator Scott Adams Presents His 10 Favorite Strips

    As I mentioned, I enjoy humor that highlights the selfish nature of people. We all relate to it. If you have a job, you probably spend some part of each day trying to disguise your selfish motives as win-win scenarios. And your attempts are probably as transparent as Wally’s. I also like jokes that involve inappropriate solutions to problems. This one has both. When you can layer two humor triggers in the same comic it almost always works.

    I also like the layered joke, but my preference is where the surface joke entices the unwary to sail right on past an even funnier joke buried under the surface. Really I’m working more with jests than jokes, but it’s the same deal.

    The art of misdirection

    In a hilarious demonstration, Robbins samples the buffet of the TEDGlobal 2013 audience, showing how the flaws in our perception make it possible to swipe a wallet and leave it on its owner’s shoulder while they remain clueless.

    Genre is really a system of implied expectations. It holds true even through I’m not really writing in genre (unless the genre is fanfic pastiche). Like the musical theory of dominants and tonics, there are moments when expectations resolve.

    The hallmark of ideological thinking is being in a frame of mind where any moment in the text that satisfies an expectation leaves the reader blind to any other string attached, even a long string dangling a giant “kick me” sign.

    Ideological thinking is becoming so comfortable within our favorite system of resolutions, that we cease to notice the real world altogether.

    Maybe I’m explaining too much. Picking pockets is mainly a silent art.

  70. Masamax says:

    dessert1111:
    I don’t understand the thought that Draisatl would surely be better off with another year in junior. I would think he is comparable to RNH in his draft year as far as readiness — Draisatl is bigger and I think better at even strength, but RNH was more used to north american hockey.

    I think if he doesn’t look ready they will send him back, but I would bet he will make the team. Yes, part of that is the dire situation at centre, but I don’t think we can say in any certain terms that he would be better off in junior. If it’s true that the top 4 in this year’s draft were interchangeable on some teams’ lists, it’s reasonable that Draisatl could’ve gone first overall, and then we would almost certainly assume he would make the jump right away and probably be okay.

    The centre position is a risk, but I there are a few guys bubbling under who look like good fits, so if there isn’t anyone cheap to he had on a short term deal who looks certainly better than arco, I am happy if MacT stands pat and runs RNH-arco-Draisatl-Gordon-Lander. I wouldn’t want to give up anything besidessecond tier prospect and mid round draft pick for a stop gap C.

    Honestly, I am fine with him there too. There are statements like we are one injury away from the lottery, but without knowing exactly how Draisaitl is going to perform, that’s speculation. Going in without backup options is a bit of a risk, depending on how one ranks Lander and Arco, but when I look at our wing depth, I am honestly hard pressed to find many teams in the league that can match it’s potential. Can the depth on wings shelter him? Can they shelter other options like Hendrisk or Gordon in terms of raising them into the top 6?

  71. Jon K says:

    nelson88:
    The attached is dated but an interesting read

    http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2013/02/19/ryan-oreillys-father-opens-up-on-his-sons-situation-with-avalanche/12635/

    That’s been kicking around for a while. There’s no doubt that ROR’s father is some kind of character. I’ve read that email a few times and I still don’t understand his point. ROR should make more money than other players because he has better character? More character? Money is a measurement of character? I don’t know. Bizarre.

    His website is interesting:

    http://www.brianoreilly.ca

  72. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Jon K,

    Carl Lindros redux?

  73. Bar_Qu says:

    Doomoil:
    I think people talking about ROR having an attitude problem probably haven’t been following Colorado contract negotiations the last few years.

    The default position of most fans is that when there is an issue between management and players, the player has an attitude problem (not meaning to cast any aspersions here). Same thing happened in the lockout, which was clearly precipitated only to get the owners more of the pot of money, but fans still supported them.

    ROR has had a couple of contract disputes, ergo he has an attitude problem. Sobotka signs in Russia, he is a me-first kind of Euro. Etc. I don’t necessarily buy any of that, beyond the fact that if I could make 30% more by playing hardball with my boss, I might do it too. Especially if I can walk across the street and get it. Doesn’t make me a bad employee or not a team player, makes me a capitalist (small c).

    I think the Oil would do well to get him. I don’t know if he shakes loose tho. Colorado is pretty thin without him.

  74. "Steve Smith" says:

    Deadman Waiting: …his sense of internal consistency demands his ascent.

    I give you enough credit to assume that this is a brilliant pun, but I admit that I can’t find it.

  75. misfit says:

    I didn’t get a chance to read yesterday afternoon’s entry until today, but I really don’t like the Brodziak/Pitlick comparisons some commenters were making.

    Pitlick is pretty much the Anti-Brodziak.

    Brodziak was a late pick that nobody expected anything from. His production from year to year made it impossible not to give him a shot, and when he got his shot, he made the most of it. He was an NHL regular 5 years after being drafted. Here are his totals:

    Draft year – .86PPG (WHL)
    Draft +1 – 1.33PPG (WHL) – Up 50%
    Draft +2 – .57PPG (AHL)
    Draft +3 – .56PPG (AHL) – Even, but with another team’s farm system
    Draft +4 – .9PPG (AHL) – Up 60%

    Pitlick, on the other hand, is riding his 1st round pick (1st pick of the 2nd at least) status and “saw him good” during some short stints between injuries. He was always considered a safe pick and close to a lock for an NHL career. Most expected him to make the team despite not showing great progress from year to year, and he’s always in the discussion for a bottom 6 roster spot with the Oilers.

    Draft year – .5PPG (College)
    Draft +1 – 1.11PPG (WHL)
    Draft +2 – .37PPG (AHL)
    Draft +3 – .22PPG (AHL) – Down 40% (down 30% in playoffs)
    Draft +4 – .56PPG (AHL) – Up 50% from 1st year

    I know this is strictly looking at points, but pretty much from draft day on, Brodziak was the better prospect. It’s taken Pitlick up until now to match Brodziak’s rookie season in the AHL. The only real encouraging sign is that Pitlick had a similar jump in production in his 3rd AHL season, but keep in mind, that was from a much lower point to start with and resulted in just over half the total production.

  76. B S says:

    misfit,

    I agree about the disconnect on Pitlick, baring in mind that injuries and small sample sizes have also skewed his stats, and I’m not sure what Brodziak’s zone starts were, but given his NHL useage, I’m guessing Pitlick wasn’t getting a ZS push in OKC.

    Pitlick reminds me of Ryan Jones, but almost as a contrast. He skates well, hits well, and generally without losing position at bad times, but can’t seem to take advantage of his chances (Jones’ skates were everywhere but under him, he made hits at terrible times, but always seemed to put the puck away when he got a great opportunity).

    The numbers don’t like him, yet everything by eye screams a hockey player (maybe he needs a mullet). Betker is the same way. He shows well, but never seems to be backed by the numbers.

    I think at this stage expecting Pitlick to be anything other than an energy player with some defensive accumen is like expecting Arcobello to score 20 goals next season as a second line center, their personal history says they aren’t going to do it.

  77. Woodguy says:

    Some food for thought

    ROR RelCor

    18 year old year -3.6
    19 years old 11.1
    20 years old 12.4
    21 years old 19.1
    22 years old 7.7

    Toews RelCor

    18 year old year – college
    19 years old 3.8
    20 years old 7.9
    21 years old 8.8
    22 years old 14.3
    23 years old 14.6
    24 years old 9.1
    25 years old 14.2

    Now, ROR doesn’t score like Toews, but our friend Toews has also had Hossa to play with for most of his career.

    ROR scores at about 75% of Toews rate (5v5) when away from Cody McLeod

    $7.5 is about right I think.

    If he played between Pouliot and Yak he’d probably do better than 75%……

  78. B S says:

    The “attitude” problems for ROR have been assumed from the implications that he turned down a long term $6 mil. aav contract from the Avs. More importantly it sounds like this rejection has stalled talks, with the further inference being that his counter offer is substantially more than the Avs are willing to even haggle from.

    I haven’t heard any criticism of Sobotka in comparison, since $2.7 mil. is a fairly insulting sum compared with his peers (I mean really? Steve Ott?).

    Unless he’s trying to get signed for $6.5 mil. per, and just can’t get the avs to bite (.5 mil over say 6 years is still a fair chunk for a player) I wouldn’t want him anyway. It’s one thing to want to get payed, it’s another to want to get payed without ever winning anything.

  79. gvblackhawk says:

    B S:
    It’s one thing to want to get payed, it’s another to want to get payed without ever winning anything.

    Btw, he won the Lady Byng trophy this year. Does that qualify as ‘something’?

    This is a very silly statement. It’s a team sport and there are many valuable players who ‘haven’t won anything’ but deserve fair market value. There are several teams who would line up to pay ROR 7+ million on a long term contract.

  80. rickithebear says:

    WG:
    If you represent ROR and Toews
    By SF% rel it filters for the players ability to allow his corsi to be blocked and Miss.
    But not GF% rel which is affected by goalie save% and affected by Dman shot distance.
    The right choice as Dellow uses in his articles!

    SF% rel the bridge between CF% rel and GF% rel.

  81. VanOil says:

    Woodguy,

    You have convinced me. Schultz + 2nd for ROR. Pay ROR 6 years X $7.5M. Even if that means Aulie-Ferrence as the bottom pairing this year. Goodness knows we have seen worse bottom pairings on the Oilers these last 8 years.

  82. Rondo says:

    B S,

    Altitude problems

  83. Frank The Dog says:

    ROR is the classic contest between a player who thinks he is worth more than the team does.

    ROR’s Dad seems to think that his boy has more “character” than other players with equivalent stats.

    Isn’t this like saying he’s more “clutch” than others?

  84. rickithebear says:

    B S: It’s one thing to want to get payed, it’s another to want to get payed without ever winning anything.

    how about earning the win.

    2010 playoffs.
    Campbell +11
    Sharp +10
    Hjarlmasson +9
    Seabrook +8
    Hossa +7
    Sopel +7
    Bolland +6
    Versteeg +4
    Ladd +4
    Bickell +3
    Keith +2
    Kopecky +2
    Eager +2
    Boynton +2
    Fraser +0
    Toews -1
    Brouwer -1
    Burish -1
    Madden -2
    Kane -2
    Byfuglien -4

  85. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    The way I see (rant) it:

    You need a second line center this year. Maybe next, but if the draft picks (RNH & Draisaitl) work out then the problem is solved in due course. Would you trade a possible integral piece (Nurse, Marincin or Klefbom) for something that could cost you millions, assets and be irrelevant in a year or two? And, shit, since were all just spit balling here maybe Draisaitl steps up mid season. Then what?

    Bad asset management for short term gain is what this smells of. I hope the powers that be have the future of this team and the potential for success when all the pieces have matured as their main driving point. I believe they do. The fans, naturally, want to win now. Fuck, I do, but not at the cost of competing for Lord Stanley’s big beer mug.

    I heard this before and think it’s beyond ridiculous but am gonna throw my own shit at it. Is Hall gonna leave because the team isn’t quite there yet? Personally, I don’t think he’s a little bitch. So, no. This is his team and we all will feel a sense of victory when HE raises that godly shinny receptacle.

    Dig done. Happy get drunk day…

  86. justDOit says:

    Frank The Dog:

    Isn’t this like saying he’s more “clutch” than others?

    I wonder what his poise index is?

  87. yegCopywriter says:

    At OilersNation, I proposed Shultz or Nurse + Lander or Arcobello + a 2015 2nd for ROR. I was subsequently asked, “Do you even watch hockey?” for proposing such a ludicrous underpayment.

    I like you guys better.

  88. Ducey says:

    VanOil: Woodguy, You have convinced me. Schultz + 2nd for ROR. Pay ROR 6 years X $7.5M. Even if that means Aulie-Ferrence as the bottom pairing this year. Goodness knows we have seen worse bottom pairings on the Oilers these last 8 years.

    Why would COL give up a guy they don’t need to trade for Schultz and a 2nd??

    They just go to arbitration, get a deal on a 1 yr contract and play him this year. Next year they can worry about what to do with him – knowing he has every reason to up his stock by playing well.

  89. B S says:

    gvblackhawk: This is a very silly statement.It’s a team sport and there are many valuable players who ‘haven’t won anything’ but deserve fair market value.There are several teams who would line up to pay ROR 7+ million on a long term contract.

    Fair, I’ll concede “market value” in pro sports is screwed up/ non-existent. But to be honest, I don’t see why just because the Hawks are stupid enough (short term) to tie up ~28-30 of their cap hit in two players, doesn’t mean the other teams have to follow suit. ROR, a second line player riding a one-off boost in stats, is allegedly asking for a 50% raise, compared to a 7% climb in cap. I guess when we talk fair, is it relative to his peers, or relative to whatever outrageous contract Tallon, or Slather would offer him.

    And sure, what the hell, nothing says grit and character like a Lady Byng, if Eberle’s nomination counts in his favour than winning the trophy can count for O’Reilly.

    Lets be clear about what I mean though: I don’t think the Oilers should sign ROR for more than $6.5 Mil. I don’t think their cap structure can stand it, and I don’t think he’ll be more than a 3rd line center here in 3 years (though he should still be tradeable by then). Beyond trading Petry and/or a handful of prospects and picks I don’t see what we could trade that wouldn’t negate whatever balance we gained by filling that 2C space. If the Avs sign him for 7.5 mil until the end of time (8 years according to the CBA) so be it, I don’t really care, just looking at it in terms of what I think the Oilers should do.

  90. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    WG:
    If you represent ROR and Toews
    By SF% relit filters for the players ability to allow his corsi to be blocked and Miss.
    But not GF% relwhich is affected bygoalie save% and affected by Dman shot distance.
    The right choice as Dellow uses in his articles!

    SF% relthe bridge between CF% reland GF% rel.

    I buy that.

    I’ll have a look using Fenwick, which is SF% for all players on the ice.

    See if I can find SF% too, but when looking at possession stats, individual SF% might be misleading.

    Good example would be Hemsky.

    Drove the play in the right direction but would make you crazy with his pass first thoughts.

  91. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Drove the play in the right direction but would make you crazy with his pass first thoughts.

    thought of that as i Drove home!

  92. Woodguy says:

    B S,

    Judging players in a team game on “whether they won anything” has no use.

    By that metric Marcell Dionne, Neely, Borque pre-COL, etc weren’t worth much, and that’s just not true.

    Also,

    You said “who’s never won anything”

    I would argue that he seems to win the puck possession battle almost every night, and against good players.

  93. gvblackhawk says:

    rickithebear: how about earning the win.

    2010 playoffs.
    Campbell +11
    Sharp +10
    Hjarlmasson +9
    Seabrook +8
    Hossa +7
    Sopel +7
    Bolland +6
    Versteeg +4
    Ladd +4
    Bickell +3
    Keith +2
    Kopecky +2
    Eager +2
    Boynton +2
    Fraser +0
    Toews -1
    Brouwer -1
    Burish -1
    Madden -2
    Kane -2
    Byfuglien -4

    Ricki is this an attempt at sarcasm? In 2010, Toews won the Conn Smythe trophy with that -1. Plus/minus is a useless stat….right up there with using EVGA 5v5 to determine effectiveness of defensemen.

  94. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    Woodguy,

    You have convinced me. Schultz + 2nd for ROR. Pay ROR 6 years X $7.5M. Even if that means Aulie-Ferrence as the bottom pairing this year. Goodness knows we have seen worse bottom pairings on the Oilers these last 8 years.

    Ference-Aulie is 2nd pair on most v4.0 teams.

    Strudwick-Chorney

    Man.

  95. Rondo says:

    Ducey,

    Makes m ore sense for Colorado to trade with Winnipeg. Evander Kane

  96. gvblackhawk says:

    B S: Fair, I’ll concede “market value” in pro sports is screwed up/ non-existent. But to be honest, I don’t see why just because the Hawks are stupid enough (short term) to tie up ~28-30 of their cap hit in two players, doesn’t mean the other teams have to follow suit. ROR, a second line player riding a one-off boost in stats, is allegedly asking for a 50% raise, compared to a 7% climb in cap. I guess when we talk fair, is it relative to his peers, or relative to whatever outrageous contract Tallon, or Slather would offer him.

    And sure, what the hell, nothing says grit and character like a Lady Byng, if Eberle’s nomination counts in his favour than winning the trophy can count for O’Reilly.

    Lets be clear about what I mean though: I don’t think the Oilers should sign ROR for more than $6.5 Mil. I don’t think their cap structure can stand it, and I don’t think he’ll be more than a 3rd line center here in 3 years (though he should still be tradeable by then). Beyond trading Petry and/or a handful of prospects and picks I don’t see what we could trade that wouldn’t negate whatever balance we gained by filling that 2C space. If the Avs sign him for 7.5 mil until the end of time (8 years according to the CBA) so be it, I don’t really care, just looking at it in terms of what I think the Oilers should do.

    If Chicago was to let Kane and Toews walk in their prime, how would they replace them? It’s impossible. Personally, I would rather have them on an overpay than not have them at all.

    ROR was paid $6.5M this past season. He wants $7.5M (speculating). That’s a little over 15% raise; not absurd by NHL standards. I think he is worth it but that’s just my opinion.

    With respect to Lady Byng winners and grit/character/winning, etc, have you checked out the list of former Byng winners? It includes Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards, Mike Bossy, Wayne Gretzky, Pavel Datsyuk, Jari Kurri, Joe Sakic, Ron Francis, Brett Hull, Bobby Hull, Stan Mikita, Brian Campbell, and many more. These guys are all stars and all Cup winners.

  97. B S says:

    rickithebear,

    Well, O’Reilly is +3 in the playoffs so he’d be somewhere between 0.5 and 2.4 million dollars on the 2010 ‘Hawks roster I guess. Pay the man. (Actually, I will admit that his numbers compare with those of the previous season for some of the top guys on your list).

  98. B S says:

    gvblackhawk: If Chicago was to let Kane and Toews walk in their prime, how would they replace them?It’s impossible.Personally, I would rather have them on an overpay than not have them at all.

    ROR was paid $6.5M this past season.He wants $7.5M (speculating).That’s a little over 15% raise;not absurd by NHL standards.I think he is worth it but that’s just my opinion.

    With respect to Lady Byng winners and grit/character/winning, etc, have you checked out the list of former Byng winners?It includes Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards, Mike Bossy, Wayne Gretzky, Pavel Datsyuk, Jari Kurri, Joe Sakic, Ron Francis, Brett Hull, Bobby Hull, Stan Mikita, Brian Campbell, and many more.These guys are all stars and all Cup winners.

    Apologies on the Lady Byng comment, I was being snarky, I’m well aware of the list of winners, and you’re right about his last pay check I was looking at his annual average. Admittedly I’m not convinced by him, but that’s based both on the fact that his bridge contract was a real bastard (Calgary’s fault more than anything), and I don’t see him as good as others seem to. But I really don’t see him as a good fit for the Oilers anymore.

    Woodguy,

    Serious (non-glib, and non-sarcastic, I try to point out when I am being sarcastic) questions. Was Parenteau RW for the Avs last season? And who were ROR’s top linemates last season?, because by most of the stats I’ve checked (ZS, Corsi Rel QoC (for whatever it’s worth), Corsi Rel) ROR comes in behind at least two of the Avalanche Centers, and Landeskog and Parenteau.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca