LOWETIDE SPECIAL: RE-DRAFT (MY LIST)

I’ve run my top 60 through the Oilers draft lens to compare my list to what the Oilers did on draft day. No real value, but it’s interesting to have a look back and see how things rolled out. It was a weird draft year, reflected by the fact the final pick I made was ranked No. 52 on my final list! THIS was one crazy draft, and it’ll be interesting to see if some of these players who didn’t get picked at all find their way onto draft lists next summer.

OILERS AT NO. 3 OVERALL: LEON DRAISAITL

LOWETIDE AT NO. 3 OVERALL: SAM BENNETT

I’m fine with Draisaitl, even more than that, actually. I love the idea of finally having a skill center with size, and suspect Draisaitl has a better chance of playing this fall than Bennett (Leon is eight months older). Bennett’s wide range of skills will be a formidable test for the Oilers though, as the hockey Gods placed him just down the QE2.

 

OILERS AT NO. 91 OVERALL: WILLIAM LAGESSON

LOWETIDE AT NO. 91 OVERALL: SPENCER WATSON

Lagesson is a fine pick, definitely in the range of where he was taken. My guy Watson barely got onto the board, taken with the second last selection in the entire draft.  Red Line report offers some insight, saying “(Watson) has very good offensive zone instincts, but honestly, we think he’s a product of playing alongside Sam Bennett.” Red Line had him second round (as did I) but NHL teams nicked him heavily and Watson was taken in Round 7.

 

OILERS AT NO. 111 OVERALL: ZACH NAGELVOORT

LOWETIDE AT NO. 111 OVERALL: DYSIN MAYO

Nagelvoort was ranked (ISS had him) and he shouldn’t be considered a wayward selection. His save percentage numbers are pretty stellar, to be honest I’m excited to follow his career at Michigan. Mayo was also ranked second round by Red Line, who compared him to Kevin Klein. I made the point yesterday that Oiler scouts would have had every opportunity to heavily scout these kids and they clearly found them wanting. Mayo did make some strides in the second half of the season, and he was selected No. 133 overall—suggesting other teams may have agreed with the Oilers.

 

OILERS AT NO. 130 OVERALL: LIAM COUGHLIN

LOWETIDE AT NO. 130 OVERALL: DEXTER DANCS

In a strange twist, The Oilers took a guy from the Vernon Vipers and my list matched, save for the name. Coughlin is the selection many Oiler fans are finding hard to agree with, and despite the fact he was taken No. 130 there was value remaining in a wonky draft. Red Line didn’t have a thing on Coughlin, but did rave about Dancs, comparing him to Wayne Simmonds and ranking him as a late second-round pick. The fact that Dancs—a power forward prospect, a very valuable thing—wasn’t drafted suggests there may be a hitch in his giddyup.

 

OILERS AT NO. 153 OVERALL: TYLER VESEL

LOWETIDE AT NO. 153 OVERALL: VLADIMIR TKACHEV

Oilers take a fascinating selection I’ve warmed to since reading about him, and Vesel is part of the new breed I’ll call draft and college. Edmonton gets a nice long look at this player for as many as four years before making a decision. My guy Tkachev wasn’t taken because of size (5.08, 163) but he enjoyed a brilliant run in 2013-14 and should find his way to a high level someday.

 

OILERS AT NO. 183 OVERALL: KEVEN BOUCHARD

LOWETIDE AT NO. 183 OVERALL: ANDREW MANGIAPANE

Keven Bouchard is the kind of pick I like, April 1996 who is perhaps obscured by other players who were drafted before him. Kind of a Tristan Jarry-lite item if you will, this is the kind of selection I prefer because there’s more room to be pleasantly surprised by a distant bell. Mangiapane is another Red Line sleeper, they have him fourth round and say “Little engine that could is small and has never been considered a real prospect his whole life – not even for the OHL. But against all odds, has become one.”

LOWETIDE RANKING FOR MY PICKS

  • (1) C Sam BennettThis is such a close race, but he’s my No. 1 pick. Range of skills, quality center.
  • (37) L Spencer Watson—Pure goal scorer, he’s an impressive skill player.
  • (42) D Dysin MayoA mobile, creative defenseman who can make plays.
  • (43) L Dexter DancsSleeper power forward.
  • (49) L Vladimir Tkachyov—Small, skilled Russian with a ridiculous Q run.
  • (52) C Andrew Mangiapane—Extra Skater superstar, his EV/60 is 3.4 and that’s outstanding.

LOWETIDE RANKING FOR OILERS PICKS

  • (3) C Leon Draisaitl—This is a fine hockey player. No one should be surprised if he goes No. 3 overall.
  • (77) D William Lagesson—Two-way defender, interesting bio.
  •  (91) G Zachary Nagelvoort: College goalie with good to very good numbers.

One weird draft. My list has a terrific center with a range of skills in the Nuge tradition, three small skill forwards, a power forward everyone passed on and the Oil King Mayo. Edmonton gets that big center they’ve been looking for since Arnott, a two-way defender and a nice goalie bet. It’s easy to forget Edmonton lacked a second and a third, and it’s also true they received value for their first three picks.

The only real quarrel is the three later picks, and even then Vesel and Bouchard have a story to tell. So, two weeks later it’s down to one name to get huffy over. I love skill, Oilers love it too but they want it in a bigger package and clearly wanted more time to evaluate this year’s distant bells.

This ends my look at the 2014 Entry draft, I hope you enjoyed it. We’ll have a short bathroom break, maybe a bit of fresh air, and I’ll begin the reasonable expectations series on Monday. I have chosen Joni Mitchell, so if you have any major bitches about it speak now or forever hold your peace. Thanks as always for your patience, suspect my draft stuff becomes a little ponderous as the days roll.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

36 Responses to "LOWETIDE SPECIAL: RE-DRAFT (MY LIST)"

  1. Hammers says:

    Thanks LT . As always ready to give your all .p.s. McT will add at least 1 more player .

  2. nycoil says:

    LT this is exactly what I was talking about in the other draft threads when I was saying Wins Above Replacement (McKenzie). If we look at the list and select the highest ranked available player and five years out compare it to the players Stu’s team took, we can get a Wins Above Replacement list (+/- how many players from the consensus BPA that make it). Then we can glean what kind of value the scouts are bringing to the table.

    Thanks for this series.

  3. Henry says:

    Joni Mitchell is an inspired choice. Until you mentioned it several posts ago, I didn’t know she was from Maidstone. Thought she was from Saskatoon.

    Doing a RE set is tough stuff. Just for fun I tried it to see how it compares with the LT standard. I gave each player 70 games (not knowing who is going to be injured). Even knowing the tendancy to overestimate the offense I had the Oilers with 302 goals. Will try again with a redefined ‘reasonable’.

  4. shawwwood says:

    Hey LT
    Does draft and college still come with the same free agency risk like Schultz and Anaheim or does the new CBA close that loophole?

  5. nycoil says:

    Wins Above Lowetide = WALT

  6. nycoil says:

    shawwwood,

    Still exists. See Kevin Hayes. Won’t sign with Chicago

  7. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    LT this is exactly what I was talking about in the other draft threads when I was saying Wins Above Replacement (McKenzie). If we look at the list and select the highest ranked available player and five years out compare it to the players Stu’s team took, we can get a Wins Above Replacement list (+/- how many players from the consensus BPA that make it). Then we can glean what kind of value the scouts are bringing to the table.

    Thanks for this series.

    Like this? 2010:

    1. Taylor Hall (BM 1) (Oilers choose Hall)
    31. Jon Merrill (BM 22) (Oilers choose Pitlick, BM 25)
    46. Tyler Toffoil (BM 27) Oilers choose Martin Marincin BM 71)
    48. Calvin Pickard (BM 31) Oilers choose Curtis Hamilton BM 57)

  8. Lowetide says:

    shawwwood:
    Hey LT
    Does draft and college still come with the same free agency risk like Schultz and Anaheim or does the new CBA close that loophole?

    We’re coming up on another right away here in Chicago with Kevin Hayes.

  9. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Exactly! It’s a rudimentary look where 150 games played is a win. So it doesn’t overly penalize the Oilers if Toffoli becomes better than Marincin. But if a player misses and the next highest player on McKenzie’s list makes it, it is minus one. If a player makes it but the next player on BM’s list doesn’t it is plus one where scouts added value.

    P.S. Man that 2010 draft using BM would have been awesome!

  10. Zangetsu says:

    I like you list better. In a weak draft, i would prefer falling players than longshots. I supose they could be like zharkov, but I would have preferred that list. I don’t know why we are drafting goalies. I think case studies show that the way to do it is to grab a guy who has bounced around (bobrovsky, thomas, scrivens maybe) and hope they are gold. Goalies are just too unpredictable as prospects.

  11. Ryan says:

    Lowetide,

    Wow. I love Marinchin, but I wouldn’t say no to trading Hamilton, Pitlick, and Marincin for Toffoli, Merrill, and Pickard.

  12. Henry says:

    Ryan:
    Lowetide,

    Wow.I love Marinchin, but I wouldn’t say no to trading Hamilton, Pitlick, and Marincin for Toffoli, Merrill, and Pickard.

    Ryan,

    Sure, but what if Marincin, the biggest outlier at BM71, ends up being the best player in the group?

  13. Lowetide says:

    Henry: Ryan,

    Sure, but what if Marincin, the biggest outlier at BM71, ends up being the best player in the group?

    I think that’s exactly it, plus we can’t really agree on prospects because we value players differently. NYCOil’s suggestion is good though imo, meaning ANOTHER draft post is on the way! (blame him!)

  14. Henry says:

    Lowetide,

    Keep the draft posts and whatever else is on your mind coming. There is a good reason that my (and other’s) first choice for procrastination is your blog.

  15. justDOit says:

    Nice music selection for the RE series, LT.

    With as many great albums as the incomparable Mitchell has released, it’s Travelogue that quickly became one of my favorites. If you’re a JM fan and haven’t heard it, shame on you.

  16. nycoil says:

    I accept the blame. It’s all my fault!

  17. Lowetide says:

    Can anyone find McKenzie’s top 60 for 2007? That would be the best year to start.

  18. go_oil says:

    The Coughlin vs Dancs pick is fascinating to me. The video of Dancs that the Vernon Vipers has isn’t very flattering… The small excerpt of him doing fitness testing makes him look a bit out of shape and I was wondering if he was high during the interview. Perhaps the didn’t choose Dancs because he’s a Canucks fan. :)

    Also, MacGregors push for another goalie in the draft is interesting too. I like it because besides Brossoit, there aren’t any prospects pushing to compete below him as of yet. The Oil are finally getting prospects in the system competing in OKC… More of that please.

  19. Oilanderp says:

    Lowetide:
    Can anyone find McKenzie’s top 60 for 2007? That would be the best year to start.

    I can only find archived top 30s: http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=7066

  20. nycoil says:

    After an exhaustive keyword search on Google, the most promising thing I found is this pdf someone loaded on HFBoards. I am not a member there. Anyone a member who can download that file and forward to LT? Or LT, do you still have your old membership over there?

    This guys says he compiled the Top 60 + HMs (6th post down). Ironically he calls himself “On Your Ignore List”

    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=392028&highlight=bob+mckenzie+2007

  21. gogliano says:

    I can’t look now but the answer is probably here (the wayback machine):

    https://archive.org/web/

  22. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    After an exhaustive keyword search on Google, the most promising thing I found is this pdf someone loaded on HFBoards. I am not a member there. Anyone a member who can download that file and forward to LT? Or LT, do you still have your old membership over there?

    This guys says he compiled the Top 60 + HMs (6th post down). Ironically he calls himself “On Your Ignore List”

    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=392028&highlight=bob+mckenzie+2007

    That works! Thanks!

  23. nycoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Least I could do considering this is all my fault.

  24. sliderule says:

    Here is 2011 oiler picks using BM top 60 list

    Nuge
    Morrow
    Saad

    I would say Klefbom may be slightly ahead of Morrow but Saad is a world ahead of Musil.

  25. supernova says:

    I wander if we could do re-drafts each year with both BM and redline.

    BM has the collaborative part, red line is only them which is more like a organizations own thoughts.

    Thoughts on this?

  26. nycoil says:

    supernova,

    I was focused on McKenzie precisely because it is collaborative and is a survey of several teams’ scouts. It’s the closest thing to a consensus that’s published.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The real issue here is that Dexter Dancs is a clearly superior name to Liam Coughlin.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    The real issue here is that Dexter Dancs is a clearly superior name to Liam Coughlin.

    Agree completely. Dexter Dancs could play third base for the Cardinals Gashouse Gang, he could be a diabolical criminal in the Superman series, and he could star in Breaking Bad.

  29. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    The real issue here is that Dexter Dancs is a clearly superior name to Liam Coughlin.

    His initials alone would provide endless amusement to many in the Oilogosphere.

    Seriously, how was he not drafted for that alone? Can’t you just picture Eberle doing an intermission interview with Principe where he drops the nickname in reference to a scoring change….with a straight face.

  30. supernova says:

    nycoil,

    Agree with your thoughts on Mckenzie but it probably is an unfair comparison to a team on its own.

    Mckenzie list will almost assuredly make almost every team have a “what the heck were they thinking moment”

    Adding a Redline to it will give us a little more idea of how an individual team could see things in comparison to the consensus.

    Maybe it’s more work than required but the purpose of the exercise is to see how off base the team really is. Comparing it on its own to a collaborative source is a little perspective skewing.

  31. Numenius says:

    Interesting to hear criticisms of the Detroit model from a Detroit blogger.

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Mark-Spizzirri/Identity-Crisis/77/61396

    His argument is that keeping young players in the minors so much in favour of older veterans doesn’t work as well in the new NHL. It risks losing the young players to the waiver wire and it means keeping older, more expensive veterans when the young players are often just as productive or better at a cheaper rate.

    Brings some perspective to our tendency to idealize that model (though, admittedly, the Oil are far from erring in that direction).

  32. RexLibris says:

    On another note, I ran Kevin Hayes’ NHLE’s for his last four years in Boston College. (RW, 6’4″, 216 lbs)

    Draft year was 15.18.
    +1 was 21.39
    +2 was 31.12
    +3 was 54.6

    His NCAA ppg sits at .93, with 48 PIMs and he was +37.

    Let’s see if Bob Green can work his magic.

  33. nycoil says:

    supernova,

    I see your point. Let me elaborate further why I think expanding it just adds noise.

    I completely agree every team will have some “what were they thinking” moments. But, that’s OK. If the idea is to have a higher hit rate on NHL players (as defined by 150 games played), then what better way to do this than establish the base or “replacement” level for drafting. This means we’re not having a debate about “better” NHL players, e.g., is Toffoli or Marincin, “better.” In following with LT’s series, the question is does he hit the 150 games played mark (successful pick) or not.

    I.e., if you were tasked with being the head scout for the Edmonton Oilers and had the final say on the draft and you had no other resources but the McKenzie list, available to everyone with an internet connection, and you drafted strictly according to the next best available player, what would your draft board look like?

    Now, let’s say from 2007 until 2013, the McKenzie would have yielded Edmonton “13″ NHL players. That becomes replacement level. If the Oilers turn out to have 16 NHL players, then Stu’s team has delivered +3 above replacement level. If the number is 10, then they are -3, etc.

    I think this addresses the question of what a scouting team is tasked with doing: if it is delivering the most NHL players they can, this comparison offers one of many possible methods of evaluation. LT has already explored many different ways of evaluating the draft record, and this just adds one tool for evaluation.

    I don’t think comparing against a collaborative source is unfair, since that list/source is available to everyone before the draft and the comparison isn’t for the purpose of saying, wow, what were they thinking, but instead to have a way of tracking how many hits and misses vs. what you or I could do going off a consensus list.

  34. supernova says:

    nycoil,

    Fair enough.

    I thank you for making the suggestion. I do find it interesting.

    I still do find it skewed.

    I agree that every team has it available to them prior to the draft, but their input could be included in the list or it could be off.

    Why I like the idea of also comparing it to am independent is the fact that it doesn’t leave room for the comparison of the fact that teams and scouts in particular can fall in love with a player and take him way ahead of the pack or totally disregard a player.

    Example of this could be Craig Button ranking Virtanen at 40 ish and the BM list below 10.

    I believe this type of thing happens regularly and it maybe should. If management want to make a scout happy they draft “his” player. Redline or equivalent account for some of this to a degree, where as BM take this away.

    This is very tangible to me in “re-drafts ” or comparisons.

    Anyhow thanks for the suggestion

  35. godot10 says:

    RexLibris:
    On another note, I ran Kevin Hayes’ NHLE’s for his last four years in Boston College. (RW, 6’4″, 216 lbs)

    Draft year was 15.18.
    +1 was 21.39
    +2 was 31.12
    +3 was 54.6

    His NCAA ppg sits at .93, with 48 PIMs and he was +37.

    Let’s see if Bob Green can work his magic.

    You realize his best buds are Flames property, and the complete dearth of right wingers on the current Flames roster.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca