OILERS PROSPECTS 2014-15: GREAT EXPECTATIONS (VOL 1)

The Edmonton Oilers could graduate some huge assets to pro hockey this fall, or send them back to junior. Beyond that, there are some nice things turning pro and headed to Oklahoma City. It’s an exciting time for Oiler fans, and another marquee graduation day.

  1. C Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers. This is going to be fun. Jason Gregor has him at 215 pounds now, that’s one monster teenager. There are no guarantees in life, but this young man has an enormous chance to make the fall Oilers. He’s in the city working on making that happen, and you have to love the work ethic.
  2. D Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste. Marie OHL. The Oilers put up roadblocks for all of their top-end defensive prospects, but I think Nurse has a chance at the 9-game look. If you look at the NHL Oilers today, this young man has a spot waiting for him in the ‘complete defenseman’ portion of the roster. We’ll see, but I would expect Nurse to play a lot in pre-season and get a long look in the final few games. Eventually he’ll find his way to Ontario. Brock Otten, OHL Prospects: He established himself as a dominant two-way defender.
  3. D Martin Marincin, Edmonton Oilers. Flourished in his NHL time a year ago, and despite talk of giving everyone time I don’t believe Edmonton will have enough depth to send him back. In fact, I don’t think it’s possible to find six better names in the group. My guess: he’s an NHLer for years beginning now.
  4. D Oscar Klefbom, Oklahoma City Barons AHL. Klefbom is valued higher than Marincin in the organization, but his AHL time is probably not finished. It’s only a matter of time, and Dallas Eakins used him in a tough zone start role out of the box. He’s an outstanding prospect.
  5. C Greg Chase, Calgary Hitmen WHL. Due to the wacky birthdate rules employed by the NHL/CHL deal, he can play only in the NHL or WHL this coming season. Too bad, because Chase had a fine run with the Barons at the end of the season. Zero draft pedigree, doesn’t matter. Tracking as a monster draft steal.
  6. C Bogdan Yakimov, Oklahoma City Barons AHL. I’m excited to see the big man play in North America this winter. Yakimov could be a big part of this team’s future and he’s one of the forwards who can help turn the center position around in relatively short order. Lots of talk about his size now, hope we’re talking about his ability as a player in the spring.
  7. D Dillon Simpson, Oklahoma City Barons AHL. It’s getting mighty crowded on the blue line at the pro level, and someone is going to be in Stockton. My guess is Simpson will play RH side in OKC for the 2014-15 season. He’s come a long way since draft day.
  8. C Mark Arcobello, Edmonton Oilers. A one-way deal and ten miles of need have him as a roster lock, and Arco could play a feature role in the top 9F this coming season. I don’t believe he’s going to deliver enough offense to stay in the role, but this is a big season for his future.
  9. C Marco Roy, Quebec Remparts QMJHL. A huge season for Roy, his Remparts are the hosts for the 2015 Memorial Cup. Last season a lot was lost to injury, but he continued scoring well despite the setbacks. We should expect some stellar boxcars.
  10. C Jujhar Khaira, Oklahoma City Barons AHL. We’re beginning to hear whispers about increased foot speed, which is Oiler code for “Anton Lander might push for a job at main camp!” Early days, and clearly a mistake, but the Oilers are fishing at the position. Suspect he’ll settle in at the AHL level and deliver quality play and be a little shy offensively. As discussed, he played WHL for a button down coach (Constantine) but we’ve tracked his offense through previous leagues and that’s going to be the issue.
  11. D Martin Gernat, Oklahoma City Barons AHL. Somewhat forgotten in all of the excitement, Gernat is in the ‘trade asset’ range of the depth chart. If he delivers a strong year in 2014-15, he could be gone in a deal at the deadline or in summer. Similar to Marincin in build, Eric Rodgers mentioned his progress as being quality this past season.
  12. R Jackson Houck, Vancouver Giants WHL. Big power forward scored well last season, if he can increase the goal scoring Edmonton would surely notice. Speed is the issue but he appears to be able to get around okay. Houck is a guy who could surprise.
  13. D William Lagesson, Dubuque Fighting Saints USHL. Lagesson has a nice range of skills, described as being physical and defensively sound, along with posting some fine boxcars. I don’t think they have a complete player here, but Lagesson does have a nice range of skills and a promising resume.
  14. R Tyler Pitlick, Edmonton Oilers. Injuries and lack of offense had him scuffling through his entry-level deal, but he impressed enough people last season to get a real shot at the NHL this season. I think he’ll score enough to stay in the lineup if he’s healthy.
  15. L Mitchell Moroz, Oklahoma City Barons AHL. Moroz is likely to benefit from MacT’s insistence that prospects play a lot, and he should flourish eventually in the AHL (that league is made for players like Moroz). He can do a lot of things, and those skills will be very valuable if he can make and take a pass at the pro level. Wildly underrated skill, and of incredible importance for this player. More than the boxcars, that’s what I’ll want to know about his winter in Oklahoma territory.
  16. D David Musil, Oklahoma City Barons AHL. The reports from OKC were far more encouraging than anticipated, as the speed issues were covered by positioning and the ability to think the game. If he can build on last season, we can begin talking about Musil as an NHL option. Impressive 2013.
  17. G Zach Nagelvoort, Michigan Wolverines, NCAA. I’m thrilled with the idea of having a goalie in the system who is so close to the AHL. Nagelvoort had a .929SP in a damn good league last season, if he builds on that we may see the team turn him pro. A quiet selection on draft day, but he could make a lot of noise in 2014-15.
  18. L Anton Slepyshev, Ufa KHL. The slick Russian winger needs to play more this coming season and post some boxcars. It’s frustrating to see a talent like his not getting to see the light of day as an everyday player. I hope the Oilers bring him over next season.
  19. C Tyler Vesel, Nebraska-Omaha, NCAA. The Oilers rarely use a pick on a 5.11 forward these days, so they must have seen something they like in the USHL sniper. He’s going to be playing at a higher level this coming season, it’ll be a good test for him.
  20. G Laurent Brossoit, Oklahoma City Barons AHL. There’s a job waiting for him in OKC, he can push Richard Bachman all the way to the bench with a strong showing this year. I’m not certain the Oilers have anything special here, but he posted a .923 in Bakersfield so deserves a chance at the higher league.

Later today: 21-40. (Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved).

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

68 Responses to "OILERS PROSPECTS 2014-15: GREAT EXPECTATIONS (VOL 1)"

  1. PDO says:

    You know, MacT’s most important job may be figuring out which of these LHD can play and which can’t in short order.

    Two years from now everybody will know, but there’s only spots for 3 of Nurse, Marincin, Klefbom, Gernat, Simpson, and Oesterle.

    MacT has to figure it out in a year before their value starts to erode.

  2. Woodguy says:

    PDO:
    You know, MacT’s most important job may be figuring out which of these LHD can play and which can’t in short order.

    Two years from now everybody will know, but there’s only spots for 3 of Nurse, Marincin, Klefbom, Gernat, Simpson, and Oesterle.

    MacT has to figure it out in a year before their value starts to erode.

    Or which of them will be find playing the right side.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Or which of them will be find playing the right side.

    There’s a ton who can. Simpson, Musil, Treble Klef iirc. Old Bruce McCurdy (I’m watching the Open and they’re influencing me) mentioned the other day how the 80s Oilers had Huddy and some others who could do it.

    So now I’m thinking MacT really IS reconstructing destiny.

  4. sliderule says:

    The video I saw of Yakimov at the development camp seemed to show his skating has improved.

    It would sure help the oilers if he could grab a spot in the lineup.

  5. wheatnoil says:

    This is an interesting article: http://nhlnumbers.com/2014/7/19/dcorsi-introductions

    It seems to be an attempt to determine the “team and usage” factors in corsi by creating an “expected corsi” for a player based on their usage. That way, you can determine if a player is hitting over or under the line (their delta-corsi).

    I suggest one reads the whole article, but in a nutshell:
    - Corsi For and Corsi Against aren’t well correlated, so they separated them out
    - Expected Corsi For and Expected Corsi Against was determined by a number of factors and is nicely laid out in the article
    - This is still a work in progress
    - There’s a great little tool at the end of the article to look up any player.

    I took a quick glance at some notable Oilers…

    Pouliot looks pretty good by this measure. Purcell looks okay, had a bad season a couple years ago but rebounded this year, his corsi for is consistently above expected but his corsi against has dipped until last year when it improved. You can definitely see Gagner’s dip over the last two seasons. Nikitin doesn’t look great by this measure, but not terrible (though not worth $4.5M x 2 years). Fayne is a killer. Aulie has a small sample size with one terrible season, one surprisingly okay season, but no data for last year. You can see Hall and RNH’s inexplicable drop off last year. Perron is actually under-performing based on usage… he holds his own in corsi against, but is actually under-performing in corsi for. Gordon looks solid given the mountain he has to climb. Yakupov and Schultz have a long ways to go. Petry had a dip in the lock-out shortened season but climbed out this last year.

    Fun stuff! It’ll be interesting to see how this measure develops. The graphs are quite user-friendly and interesting.

    LT, I wonder if this might be a nice little addition to the Vollman Sledgehammer… it gives a nice longitudinal view of a player’s corsi vs his usage.

  6. RexLibris says:

    That blueline prospect group is really exciting to watch develop, and how many times can you say that about defensemen?!

    The best part of this whole process is the stubbornness of the national narrative about the Oilers and the chance that the next two seasons could see a fairly rapid about-face on the subject.

  7. jp says:

    This is really a nice group. The improved depth at the NHL level (at most positions) should allow these guys time to develop. It should also force them to push an actual NHLer out of the way to earn a roster spot. Things are starting to look up.

    Clearly some trades from this group are inevitable, but I’d prefer the wait and see approach rather than “Marincin for Coburn” type moves at this point. A bunch of these guys are SO close. It would be a shame to send them away for a 10 year career in another city in exchange for a more expensive vet who’ll be no better than the young guy in a year or two.

  8. Woodguy says:

    LT just tweeted about an article that ohlprospects.blogspot.com ran on two Oiler prospects playing there, Nurse and Platzer:

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2014/07/30-teams-in-30-days-edmonton-oilers.html

    Interesting conclusion about Nurse:

    Quite frankly, I think he’s ready for the NHL. He needs to learn to adjust to the speed of the pro game and to gain confidence at that level. I don’t think there’s much more that the OHL can teach him. If he returns, I think it will be a mistake and the Oilers will risk him developing some bad habits out of boredom (the way Alex Pietrangelo did in his 19 year old season).

  9. mumbai max says:

    jp:
    This is really a nice group. The improved depth at the NHL level (at most positions) should allow these guys time to develop. It should also force them to push an actual NHLer out of the way to earn a roster spot. Things are starting to look up.

    Clearly some trades from this group are inevitable, but I’d prefer the wait and see approach rather than “Marincin for Coburn” type moves at this point. A bunch of these guys are SO close. It would be a shame to send them away for a 10 year career in another city in exchange for a more expensive vet who’ll be no better than the young guy in a year or two.

    and whose skill levels will trend in opposite directions for another 5+ years. that would be tough to watch

  10. RexLibris says:

    On Marincin/Klefbom/Gernat.

    Gernat was a 5th round pick in 2011, and I would say that we should track a similar rate of development for him that we did for Klefbom, adjusted for draft pedigree and development history.

    Same draft year and both have had time lost to injury (Gernat had shoulder issues his first year that led him to travel back to Slovakia for treatment, iirc).

    Klefbom was playing against men at an earlier age, but I’ve seen Gernat play at least half-a-dozen times in his two seasons with the Oil Kings, often alongside Reinhart, and came away impressed every single time not only with his offensive instincts, but his defensive awareness as well. He showed some of the offensive chops we love in Schultz with a far better defensive game, albeit at the junior level at the time.

    I agree he falls into the trade-asset category at this stage, but I think he will prove to have real value to this club in two years’ time, perhaps less.

  11. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    LT just tweeted about an article that ohlprospects.blogspot.com ran on two Oiler prospects playing there, Nurse and Platzer:

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2014/07/30-teams-in-30-days-edmonton-oilers.html

    Interesting conclusion about Nurse:

    Quite frankly, I think he’s ready for the NHL. He needs to learn to adjust to the speed of the pro game and to gain confidence at that level. I don’t think there’s much more that the OHL can teach him. If he returns, I think it will be a mistake and the Oilers will risk him developing some bad habits out of boredom (the way Alex Pietrangelo did in his 19 year old season).

    Let’s say Nurse does make it to the show this year… what does the D-Line look like?

    The quick solution is throw Marincin back to the AHL, but that won’t last long. Ference has a NMC and Nikitin just signed a big contract. On the right side there’s Schultz (assuming he’s not going to hold out), Petry and Fayne.

    I think if Nurse makes it past 9 games, Petry will be gone.

    (Note: that’s my prediction, not my suggestion)

  12. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    LT just tweeted about an article that ohlprospects.blogspot.com ran on two Oiler prospects playing there, Nurse and Platzer:

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2014/07/30-teams-in-30-days-edmonton-oilers.html

    Interesting conclusion about Nurse:

    Quite frankly, I think he’s ready for the NHL. He needs to learn to adjust to the speed of the pro game and to gain confidence at that level. I don’t think there’s much more that the OHL can teach him. If he returns, I think it will be a mistake and the Oilers will risk him developing some bad habits out of boredom (the way Alex Pietrangelo did in his 19 year old season).

    That is the first time I’ve heard a negative expressed about Pietrangelo’s being returned to junior. The overall impression I got from all reports to this point was that it was the right call and has paid dividends.

    Interesting.

  13. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris: That is the first time I’ve heard a negative expressed about Pietrangelo’s being returned to junior. The overall impression I got from all reports to this point was that it was the right call and has paid dividends.

    Interesting.

    Clearly those “bad habits” weren’t too critical, whatever they were. He jumped straight to the NHL after that 19-year old season.

    Still, it’s an interesting point from someone an experienced eye who watches far more OHL than I do.

  14. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    Sorry to self-promote LT, I’ve been working on a post detailing the best and worst possession UFAs as signed thus far. Some of the salaries handed out are particularly interesting:

    http://icenationuk.com/2014/07/20/2014-ufa-class-best-worst-possession-players/

  15. Lowetide says:

    Chris Hext—formerly EasyOil—:
    Sorry to self-promote LT, I’ve been working on a post detailing the best and worst possession UFAs as signed thus far. Some of the salaries handed out are particularly interesting:

    http://icenationuk.com/2014/07/20/2014-ufa-class-best-worst-possession-players/

    Interesting, Chris. Thanks for sharing it. Fun to see Edmonton showing up on the good side of these things now. Not always, but more.

  16. blainer says:

    Things are really looking up. A lot of later round picks make it to the NHL at a young age like 20 years old. I would not be surprised to see YAK 2 called up sometime during the year and expect him to compete for a job at camp. Same goes for Khaira.. He played well in OKC and seems so Mature for his age and has been schooled well in defense. That Chase pick is unreal. Watch out for him next year..

    Our Defensive prospects IMO are right up there with the best in the League.. I had to wait to read all the way down to 11 before Gernat who I am really high on and then again all the way to number 16 before we heard about Musil who Nelson said he expects to be called up sometime next season. Not to even mention Nurse who I agree will see 9 games but will be sent back. Man the competition for that position now is awesome. I cannot wait to see how that 2013 draft turns out.. I think it was the best draft we have done in a very long time…For the first time in years We may just be able to survive some injuries..

    Suspect Klefbom goes in a trade with YAK for O’Reilly…Now that would be bold..

  17. shaker5585 says:

    Woodguy,

    as a Soo Greyhound season ticket holder and an Edmonton Oiler fan for about 30 yrs I feel that Nurse isn’t ready to make the jump to the NHL just yet. His skating is very good but he still needs to get better in his own zone particularly making better decisions with the puck. He tends to turn the puck over while trying to do too much. I would also like to see him put on some more muscle. He is very thin. for his height. There is no need for the Oilers to rush him.

  18. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: There’s a ton who can. Simpson, Musil, Treble Klef iirc. Old Bruce McCurdy (I’m watching the Open and they’re influencing me)mentioned the other day how the 80s Oilers had Huddy and some others who could do it.

    So now I’m thinking MacT really IS reconstructing destiny.

    All 3 of Charlie Huddy, Randy Gregg and Craig Muni were left shooters who played primarily on the right side during their extended run on the Oilers. Didn’t seem to bother them that much, if 13 Cup rings among them can be our guide.

    Biggest obstacle to one or more of the young LHD switching are names like Schultz, Petry, Fayne.

  19. Bank Shot says:

    I don’t ever buy the angle that this or that prospect is “too good” for juniors. It’s not like Nurse put up 100 points last season and won the league MVP. He didn’t go to the World Juniors. There are obviously things he can work on in his game in juniors. Being one of the best players logging a bunch of icetime and playing the puck a lot is going to be good for his development.

    Maybe Crosby at 17 was too good for juniors, but that’s about where I would draw the line.

  20. Woodguy says:

    shaker5585:
    Woodguy,

    as a Soo Greyhound season ticket holder and an Edmonton Oiler fan for about 30 yrs I feel that Nurse isn’t ready to make the jump to the NHL just yet. His skating is very good but he still needs to get better in his own zone particularly making better decisions with the puck. He tends to turn the puck over while trying to do too much. I would also like to see him put on some more muscle. He is very thin. for his height. There is no need for the Oilers to rush him.

    Thanks for the post.

    I haven’t seen him play much and don’t really hold an opinion myself other than sending young Dmen back to junior is rarely a mistake.

    I really can’t think of high end prospect who didn’t progress by being held out of the NHL, but can think of lots who got there too soon and had a really hard time.

  21. jfry says:

    shaker5585:
    Woodguy,

    as a Soo Greyhound season ticket holder and an Edmonton Oiler fan for about 30 yrs I feel that Nurse isn’t ready to make the jump to the NHL just yet. His skating is very good but he still needs to get better in his own zone particularly making better decisions with the puck. He tends to turn the puck over while trying to do too much. I would also like to see him put on some more muscle. He is very thin. for his height. There is no need for the Oilers to rush him.

    This all day.

    He played okay in the ahl last year but there were coverage issues that will get him gilberted out of town. He won’t make our d better, so send him down to learn some more basics. If he is going to be an “all round” dman then he has work to do…which namely involves taking fewer chances with the puck and accepting his job is to get it to the forwards. I think his time in the ahl showed that he has a pretty long way togo still.

    I am hoping for one year of junior and at least a half season ahl (but hopefully a full one). Klefbom is a much more ready prospect at this time.

  22. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:

    I really can’t think of high end prospect who didn’t progress by being held out of the NHL, but can think of lots who got there too soon and had a really hard time.

    Seems to me it would be mighty hard to identify guys who “didn’t progress by being held out of the NHL” because if they come up at 20 and underperform the default assumption is they were never good enough in the first place, not that they might have taken a step back in their 19 year old season. Whereas a guy who comes in as an underager & subsequently struggles stands out like a sore thumb. iMO there’s a huge grey area here.

  23. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Chris Hext—formerly EasyOil—:
    Sorry to self-promote LT, I’ve been working on a post detailing the best and worst possession UFAs as signed thus far. Some of the salaries handed out are particularly interesting:

    http://icenationuk.com/2014/07/20/2014-ufa-class-best-worst-possession-players/

    I for one am glad you self promoted or i would have missed this terrific post. Excellent work, Chris.

  24. Oilanderp says:

    Ever since I saw Gernat successfully pull a ‘forsberg’ in a shootout, I have been hooked. So much so that I don’t even care about his math any more. Shameful, I know, but I just hope they give him every bit of support he needs to get to the next level. I pray to the hockey gords that MacT and Company can resist the urge to send him away for a man on the other side of the age and experience curve. I feel it would be a massive mistake.

  25. Bruce McCurdy says:

    shaker5585:
    Woodguy,

    as a Soo Greyhound season ticket holder and an Edmonton Oiler fan for about 30 yrs I feel that Nurse isn’t ready to make the jump to the NHL just yet. His skating is very good but he still needs to get better in his own zone particularly making better decisions with the puck. He tends to turn the puck over while trying to do too much. I would also like to see him put on some more muscle. He is very thin. for his height. There is no need for the Oilers to rush him.

    In a similar vein, to this Oil Kings supporter no way is Curtis Lazar is ready to make the jump to the NHL next year. Needs another year of seasoning in junior. Are you listening, Ottawa? HE’S NOT READY AND YOU CANT HAVE HIM!! ;)

  26. Oilanderp says:

    Geez, so many links to other good articles… you come for one article and end up in a spiralling travel elsewhere. This site is Youtube for geriatrics!

  27. Bruce McCurdy says:

    shaker5585,

    PS Shaker that wasn’t a shot at you, in the unique position of being a fan of both clubs. That’s a dream scenario for a fan of junior hockey when your NHL team picks your high end prospect & you get to see him up close for a further year or two. I hope for your sake Nurse goes back down, & If he does, I’ll look forward to your ongoing commentary of his play.

  28. blainer says:

    Oilanderp:
    Ever since I saw Gernat successfully pull a ‘forsberg’ in a shootout, I have been hooked.So much so that I don’t even care about his math any more.Shameful, I know, but I just hope they give him every bit of support he needs to get to the next level.I pray to the hockey gords that MacT and Company can resist the urge to send him away for a man on the other side of age and experience curve.I feel it would be a massive mistake.

    With you on this all the way. Same goes for Marincin. What a beast Marincin will be at 225 lbs. Watched Marincin stop the cycle against Getzlaf last year at the weight he was at then.. If Gernat can get the Chaos out of his game which I believe he will if he gains the coaches confidence, and can put 25 lbs these guys will both be Beasts. I also believe Gernat has an offensive upside if given the chance. Again..what a great looking pipeline..

  29. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Seems to me it would be mighty hard to identify guys who “didn’t progress by being held out of the NHL” because if they come up at 20 and underperform the default assumption is they were never good enough in the first place, not that they might have taken a step back in their 19 year old season. Whereas a guy who comes in as an underager & subsequently struggles stands out like a sore thumb.iMO there’s a huge grey area here.

    That’s probably why I can’t think of any.

    :)

  30. blainer says:

    Seems no one is talking about Draisaitl. It seems this young man is on a mission. If he is at 215lbs now.. what is his playing weight gonna be at 22 years. What a treat it would be if he makes the team and plays beyond his NHLE and posts a positive corsi… I have no idea though how he will do in the faceoff circle.. that seems to be such a big learning curve for rookies.. maybe a few lessons from Gordon may help. No question about his strength by the sounds od things..

  31. Hammers says:

    What a great article . LT are you or can you do an RE on the Barons players as well as the Oilers .It would be interesting as always . I will be really interested in 3 of the OKL “D” , Simpson , Musil & Gernat . When we or a lot of us say Nurse , MM ,KLef will all be playing in 15-16 we must take into account what else is happening in Oklahoma and following them this coming season will be interesting . It just looks like we will have a playoff contender when they go into that new building . Hope us over 70′s fans live long enough to see another run .

  32. VanOil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: All 3 of Charlie Huddy, Randy Gregg and Craig Muni were left shooters who played primarily on the right side during their extended run on the Oilers. Didn’t seem to bother them that much, if 13 Cup rings among them can be our guide.

    Biggest obstacle to one or more of the young LHD switching are names like Schultz, Petry, Fayne.

    You have convinced me, 13 Cups. Ship Schultz out for a Center now!

  33. nycoil says:

    LT, from the other thread on the Philly situation. I don’t think it’s an issue this year at all.

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2014/7/3/5865615/flyers-salary-cap-pronger-ltir

  34. blainer says:

    Hammers,

    I’m in my fifties and I’m worried about that very same run.. Things are looking up for us though. I think we are getting close..

  35. godot10 says:

    blainer:
    Seems no one is talking about Draisaitl. It seems this young man is on a mission. If he is at 215lbs now.. what is his playing weight gonna be at 22 years. What a treat it would be if he makes the team and plays beyond his NHLE and posts a positive corsi… I have no idea though how he will do in the faceoff circle.. that seems to be such a big learning curve for rookies.. maybe a few lessons from Gordon may help. No question about his strengthby the sounds od things..

    Just hope he isn’t on a mission to become as big and slow as Jason Allison or Dave Andreychuk or Pancakes.

    It may not be the wisest thing for a player who is not especially quick to begin with to be adding lots of weight.

    The LA Kings just play big, more than they are big.

  36. speeds says:

    jfry,

    My general train of thought with under 20 players would be that if I didn’t think they were a top 6F or top 4D out of camp, I would likely send them away unless I had some reason to think they would get to that point relatively quickly, in which case you maybe look at some or all of the 9 games to see what’s going on.

    *edit to add* with F’s, if a guy were top 9 to start but I thought he had a reasonable chance to play up the lineup, I’d consider keeping that player as well.

  37. godot10 says:

    VanOil: You have convinced me, 13 Cups. Ship Schultz out for a Center now!

    Two words:

    Reijo Ruotsalainen. Critical to two Oiler Cups post Paul Coffey. And well, two more words. Paul Coffey.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: So now I’m thinking MacT really IS reconstructing destiny.

    completely unrelated but of a theme… I wrote today on Gzowski’s book, Coffey, Schultz and a few other things:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/07/gzowski-coffey-schultz/

    what’s really funny is I used similar language too

    One of the striking similarities to the current Oilers’ and the early days of the boys on the bus era, is the sense of promise, one might even say of destiny. Nearly every times MacTavish talks about making roster adjustments he brings up the “dear price” paid for the kids, the “core” of the team, and how he has no intension of forfeiting future promise for short term gains. It can’t have escaped anyone in the current Oilers’ organization that Sather faced many of the same obstacles and harbored much the same philosophy regarding his situation in 1980-81.

  39. thejonrmcleod says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Also in a similar vein, there’s no way Jonathan Drouin should be in the NHL next season. He’s too small and tries to do too much with the puck. Needs to simplify his game. (This has nothing to do with the fact that I’m a Halifax Mooseheads fan.)

  40. jp says:

    Chris Hext—formerly EasyOil—,

    Bruce McCurdy: I for one am glad you self promoted or i would have missed this terrific post. Excellent work, Chris.

    Aside from the nice post the site looks real sharp too.

  41. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: completely unrelated but of a theme… I wrote today on Gzowski’s book, Coffey, Schultz and a few other things:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/07/gzowski-coffey-schultz/

    what’s really funny is I used similar language too

    This is what I recall as well.

    I’d always heard stories about countless GMs offering to trade this or that veteran for one of Sather’s “kids”, but he stubbornly refused deciding instead to let them grow together.

    That being said, those Oilers were something unique. Truly unique, not to be replicated. And they still had Al Hamilton, Lee Fogolin and Bill “Cowboy” Flett.

  42. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: This is what I recall as well.

    I’d always heard stories about countless GMs offering to trade this or that veteran for one of Sather’s “kids”, but he stubbornly refused deciding instead to let them grow together.

    That being said, those Oilers were something unique. Truly unique, not to be replicated. And they still had Al Hamilton, Lee Fogolin and Bill “Cowboy” Flett.

    St. Louis offered Garry Unger for one of the kids, don’t recall which one. Slats passed and got Unger on the cheap just a few months later. GMs are thieves, the trick is to make sure your team has a better one.

  43. Lloyd B. says:

    Woodguy,

    The 1972 Russian team was made up entirely of left hand shots. The whole shootin match. Not sure about Tretiak. I’m not as concerned as some about a righty playing right and a lefty playing left. Just win baby.

  44. RexLibris says:

    WHAT! Seriously, why did nobody tell me?

    http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2014/jul/20/james-garner

    Damn, I’ll miss this guy.

  45. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: St. Louis offered Garry Unger for one of the kids, don’t recall which one. Slats passed and got Unger on the cheap just a few months later. GMs are thieves, the trick is to make sure your team has a better one.

    Yeah, that was one attribute about Sather that I dearly miss. Reading in the paper one morning about how your GM had acquired All Star player X for the proverbial (and sometimes literal) bag of pucks was a great way to start the day.

  46. jp says:

    blainer:
    Seems no one is talking about Draisaitl. It seems this young man is on a mission. If he is at 215lbs now.. what is his playing weight gonna be at 22 years. What a treat it would be if he makes the team and plays beyond his NHLE and posts a positive corsi… I have no idea though how he will do in the faceoff circle.. that seems to be such a big learning curve for rookies.. maybe a few lessons from Gordon may help. No question about his strengthby the sounds od things..

    The prudent thing is to underestimate, but yes, Draisaitl could be very good very quickly.

    No idea about his faceoffs. I know there are no WHL faceoff stats available. Anyone know of any anecdotal/print evidence one way or the other?

    Only thing I can think of is his international numbers. iihf.com has faceoff leaders for each tournament (top 30 based on %). Draisaitl’s tournaments:
    2012 U18 Not in top 30 (30th place was 46.67%)
    2013 U20 Not in top 30 (30th place was 48.51%)
    2013 U18 25th place at 50.60%
    2014 U20 30th place at 48.65%
    2014 WCh Not in top 30 (30th place was 53.12%)

    He may not have been playing C at all of those tournaments, but overall not too encouraging.

  47. jp says:

    Lloyd B.:
    Woodguy,

    The 1972 Russian team was made up entirely of left hand shots.The whole shootin match. Not sure about Tretiak.I’m not as concerned as some about a righty playing right and a lefty playing left.Just win baby.

    Yeah, but that 72 Russian team didn’t win a damn thing.

  48. LMHF#1 says:

    Interesting bit on Roy – friend of mine reffed him in summer league the other night along with a bunch of NHL/AHL/etc guys. Apparently he really didn’t stand out. Bigger than he thought he’d be, but not especially skilled.

    I know it’s just summer league, but usually these guys still blow you away. You’d hope a high pick would stand out some.

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LMHF#1:
    Interesting bit on Roy – friend of mine reffed him in summer league the other night along with a bunch of NHL/AHL/etc guys. Apparently he really didn’t stand out. Bigger than he thought he’d be, but not especially skilled.

    I know it’s just summer league, but usually these guys still blow you away. You’d hope a high pick would stand out some.

    Re: Roy, he has a 1994 birthday, has a commitment been made either way yet as to whether he’ll return for an overage year in junior?

    Also if this summer league consisted of other NHL/AHL guys, why should a 19 year old 56th overall pick blow anybody away?

  50. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lloyd B.:
    Woodguy,

    The 1972 Russian team was made up entirely of left hand shots.The whole shootin match. Not sure about Tretiak.I’m not as concerned as some about a righty playing right and a lefty playing left.Just win baby.

    Not quite true, Vlacimir Petrov for one was a righty, but for sure the Soviets once iced a team of entirely LH shots. Maybe late 70s?

  51. Lloyd B. says:

    jp,

    LOL If Bobby Clarke hadn’t smashed Kharlomovs ankle I suspect there may have been a different ending. With all those lefties all they did was cycle and cycle and cycle. All the way from their end to ours. Pass it right into the net. Sorry guys, didn’t mean to hijack.

  52. Lloyd B. says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I stand corrected. I do remember one team being all lefties but we didn’t get to see much of them at that time. Whats a TSN ?

  53. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lloyd B.:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I stand corrected. I do remember one team being all lefties but we didn’t get to see much of them at that time. Whats a TSN ?

    For years there were barely any lefties, Petrov was a real standout in that respect as a RH C dishing to 2 LH wingers (Kharlamov & Mikhailov). A few years later they reached the extreme of 0 righties at all for a tournament cycle or two.

  54. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Re: Roy, he has a 1994 birthday, has a commitment been made either way yet as to whether he’ll return for an overage year in junior?

    Also if this summer league consisted of other NHL/AHL guys, why should a 19 year old 56th overall pick blow anybody away?

    Swear I heard it but can’t find. Someone from the Oil mentioned he’d been traded to Quebec and would be in the Mem Cup.

  55. justDOit says:

    RexLibris:
    WHAT! Seriously, why did nobody tell me?

    http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2014/jul/20/james-garner

    Damn, I’ll miss this guy.

    Me too. One of those actors who seemed to only have to let his personality do the acting. I almost know every line from The Rockford Files, but I’ll still make time to watch an episode if it’s on – and that has almost nothing to do with Beth Davenport!

  56. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Swear I heard it but can’t find. Someone from the Oil mentioned he’d been traded to Quebec and wouldbe in the Mem Cup.

    You’re right he’s been traded. Not often you see an overager moved in the off-season, suggestive that somebody knows something. For sure Oilers have 2 years to sign him so can give him the Kytnar/Davidson treatment. Probably a good idea IMO.

  57. Numenius says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Chris Hext—formerly EasyOil—:
    http://icenationuk.com/2014/07/20/2014-ufa-class-best-worst-possession-players/

    I for one am glad you self promoted or i would have missed this terrific post. Excellent work, Chris.

    Yes, excellent post.

    Fayne looks fantastic here, but Nikitin? Terrible.

    Maybe Nurse will have to take his spot.

  58. speeds says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Had two years to sign him, Roy goes back into the draft if unsigned next June.

  59. jfry says:

    speeds:
    jfry,

    My general train of thought with under 20 players would be that if I didn’t think they were a top 6F or top 4D out of camp, I would likely send them away unless I had some reason to think they would get to that point relatively quickly, in which case you maybe look at some or all of the 9 games to see what’s going on.

    *edit to add* with F’s, if a guy were top 9 to start but I thought he had a reasonable chance to play up the lineup, I’d consider keeping that player as well.

    I agree and don’t think nurse has shown that criteria. In 2006 we had so many value contracts. Let’s keep pushing back these studs in junior so we have that same luxury of fielding quality players at controlled pay.

    *edit
    With the way the cap is going up, rookie contracts that are regulated are looking like better and better value. Keep them in junior. Keep them in Europe. Getting a real player with a few years left on his ELC is the key.

  60. Bruce McCurdy says:

    speeds:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Had two years to sign him, Roy goes back into the draft if unsigned next June.

    Yes, “had”. Sorry, poor use of tense. 2 years after his draft day, which was 1 year ago. So even though he turns 20 this fall Oilers can let him play an overage year without needing to sign him until after it’s over.

  61. godot10 says:

    Lloyd B.:
    jp,

    LOL If Bobby Clarke hadn’t smashed Kharlomovs ankle I suspect there may have been a different ending.With all those lefties all they did was cycle and cycle and cycle.All the way from their end to ours.Pass it right into the net.Sorry guys, didn’t mean to hijack.

    Canada’s record with Serge Savard in the 1972 series. 4 wins, one tie, zero losses.

    Canada’s record without Serge Savard in the 1972 series. 0 wins, 3 losses.

    The unsung unrecognized hero of 1972.

  62. Lowetide says:

    21-40 is up now.

  63. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    LT, Bruce, JP, Numenius et al: Wow, thanks for the compliments folks, much appreciated! (and I just re-designed the site a few days ago!). Nikitin certainly doesn’t look too pretty by this method, while Fayne and Pouliot look pretty good. Of course it is worth remembering that the one drawback of what I did in the post is it’s only one season’s worth of data.

    Anyway, to get back on track with LTs post: I love the fact that the Oil have so many excellent defense prospects. I could see any or all of Klefbom, Marincin and Nurse becoming genuine top-pairing NHLers – not necessarily elite, but certainly up there in usefulness – but the other side is that I’d be extremely unwilling to part with any of them (now at least) until we know more about what they are at the highest level. The defensive pipeline is certainly an organisational strength, and you should (almost) always deal from a position of strength, but I’d be very reluctant in this case, with that trio.

    Does anyone else know the last time an NHL team had 3 similarly aged defensemen all enter the league at around the same time (say, within 2 years of each other) and all turned out well? I guess NSH with Hamhuis, Weber and Suter.

  64. Deadman Waiting says:

    jfry:
    If he is going to be an “all round” dman then he has work to do…which namely involves taking fewer chances with the puck and accepting his job is to get it to the forwards.

    You’re not going to like Ramsay one bit.

    Can the Edmonton Oilers coaching staff go from “negativity and chaos” to “fun and success”?

    “I want to see what the players have and what they’re about…. You do not want to pigeon-hole. Players will pigeon hole themselves, ‘Well, I’m a defensive defenceman. I don’t score.’ Or, ‘I’m an offensive defenceman, I don’t check.’ Same with forwards. Players have to do a little of everything if they’re going to be successful. If they’re going to be the best player they can be, they’ve got to grow. My job is to see what they do, enhance that, and more importantly is enhance what they don’t do and make them better at that.”

    ———

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Seems to me it would be mighty hard to identify guys who “didn’t progress by being held out of the NHL” because if they come up at 20 and underperform the default assumption is they were never good enough in the first place, not that they might have taken a step back in their 19 year old season. Whereas a guy who comes in as an underager & subsequently struggles stands out like a sore thumb. IMO there’s a huge grey area here.

    God bless you for that post.

    Nail, for one, would have benefited from not rushing his queen to the center of the board against weak park punters.

    Magnus Carlsen’s Parents on Raising the World’s Best Chess Player

    This quality has contributed in no small measure to his success; chess commentators draw attention to his ability to wear down opponents, to wait patiently for them to make the tiniest mistake. Magnus himself maintains that he is an aggressive player but that audacity isn’t always what’s called for. “When you play against the best people in the world, they see through your plans, and you cannot win with a swashbuckling attack all the time,” he says. “You just need to take what’s there.”

    I was going to write that the best acquire an amazing skill to just take whatever they are given, whether the edge is large or small, and I thought to myself “well, Magnus has that gift” and I was going to just say this and I thought to myself “well, it will probably only take ten seconds with my magic pat-on-the-back shovel to dig up an appropriate quote” and the first thing I find contains a paragraph pretty much word for word what I wished to put forward.

    Then came a turning point. Just before Magnus turned 8, says Henrik, “Ellen suddenly understood enough to make it interesting for me to play with her.” Magnus would sit to watch them and, a little later, join in. Henrik’s dilemma was that if he adopted poor strategy, his children wouldn’t learn anything, but he also didn’t want them to become discouraged. So he began to play with limited resources—just his king and a pawn—slowly adding pieces as they learned the game. Magnus’s interest started to grow, although Henrik maintains that “he just wanted to beat his sister.”

    ———

    What really happens when gifted players are accelerated into the top tier is that their development track becomes even less of a straight line. At top level it’s impossible to get away with anything you haven’t earned, but it’s also a lot harder to make the many mistakes required to develop in an area of weakness.

    With Nurse job one is to make life miserable for anyone wearing the wrong uniform. He’s got the big skeleton, and plays above his size. He’ll spend the year losing some rough battles against the biggest of the big and taking numbers. Two or three years from now, anyone who got the better of him in his rookie season will wish they hadn’t.

    Lomo is killing us. We must start scrumming, we must disrupt them at the first phase, we cannot allow Lomo the ball in space, he’s freaking killing us, but listen, if Lomo gets the ball… whoever is there, James, Yust, hit the fucking guy, hold on to, him help will come, help will be there.

    For Nurse, help is coming after nothing more than another year or two of Michael Phelps’ Mastication.

    If Nurse is so thin that he’s spending too much quality time on his tea kettle, the helping hounds program is not going to work (maybe that’s how we should rechristen the swarm). If he merely bounces off first impact and slides down to the shin grip, that will slow Lucic down just enough to make this work.

    Some guys just naturally pick themselves up and go “I’ll get him next time!” and other guys begin to doubt their ability.

    What happens among the faithful fussbudgets is that when the more crooked development path suffers a set-back, the cognitive reflex of loss aversion kicks into overdrive: he’s been ruined!

    Billy: Tell me the headline.

    Quoyle: Horizon Fills With Dark Clouds?

    Billy: Imminent Storm Threatens Village.

    Quoyle: But what if no storm comes?

    Billy: Village Spared From Deadly Storm.

    This is probably the fifth time I’ve quoted those lines. On the surface, this is about how drama sells news. Underneath, it’s about how the human mind parses adversity.

    ———

    The hardest player of all to develop is the one who knows when to attack the seam with a solo attack, and when to step back to rely on team and system. Then you have to find the golden linemates that can keep up with the two-way decision process, or complement it in a dimension where it doesn’t matter. Horcoff was underrated at this particularly difficult skill. We had that special line when Hemmer, Horcoff, and Smyth were all on top of their games. Then one guy of the magic trio loses half a step and it’s a coaching nightmare. You fail by breaking them up, and you fail by keeping them all together.

    I loved Hemmer, but he was always the un-Pisani.

    ———

    Just for fun:

    Eventually there’s a Cookie Monster facepalm.

    If it were me picking the music around here, this clip would be mighty hard to resist during FA frenzy.

  65. theres oil in virginia says:

    Deadman Waiting: Eventually there’s a Cookie Monster facepalm.

    That is the awesome-est thing I’ve seen in quite some time!

  66. LMHF#1 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Re: Roy, he has a 1994 birthday, has a commitment been made either way yet as to whether he’ll return for an overage year in junior?

    Also if this summer league consisted of other NHL/AHL guys, why should a 19 year old 56th overall pick blow anybody away?

    Not in terms of dominating the ice, but in terms of being able to see his individual skill.

    It is also not ALL pros and CHL guys, which is what I was referring to. All of those guys (even the Rocky Thompsons) are damn impressive.

  67. One-Timer says:

    theres oil in virginia: That is the awesome-est thing I’ve seen in quite some time!

    Cookie Monster always freaked me out a bit.

    I think it’s the way his pupils spin around uncontrollably.

  68. gcw_rocks says:

    Just out of curiosity, where would Matt Finn have ranked?

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca