OKLAHOMA, USA

This is Jujhar Khaira. He’s slated to be one of the ‘twin towers’ at center this fall and winter in Oklahoma City. Along with big Russian Bogdan (BOH-DAN) Yakimov, the Barons will fairly block out the sun up the middle. They’re not the Thunder, but they’re getting there. It’s a good time to look at the Barons and how the club is going to look for 2014-15. I think we should call this edition of the team “getting passed like a house on the side of the road” because some prospects are going to be eating exhaust all year.

BROSSOIT1

GOAL

  1. Richard Bachman 3GP, 3.02 .916
  2. Laurent Brossoit 10GP, 3.99 .876 (AHL)
  3. Frans Tuohimaa 1GP, 1.85 .950 (AHL)
  4. Tyler Bunz 5GP, 3.63 .901 (AHL)
  5. Ty Rimmer 3GP, 2.65 .930 (AHL)

The Oilers were wise to bring in Bachman, it’s a big season for Brossoit and there will be blood. It’s a big step (as we’ve seen) to the AHL, I think the ECHL benefits goalies most of all. Intrigued by the Finn, nonplussed by the Bunz and for Rimmer this is all manna from heaven. He was basically blowing in the wind a year ago, now the Oilers have him signed to an AHL deal and he could be the guy coming out of this group in a couple of years. Suspect this is Bunz’ last season in the organization, although with goalies you never know.

gernat9

DEFENSE

  1. Oscar Klefbom 17GP, 1-2-3 15:47 TOI
  2. Brad Hunt 3GP, 0-0-0 12:36 TOI
  3. Martin Gernat 57GP, 4-17-21 (AHL)
  4. David Musil 61GP, 2-10-12 (AHL)
  5. Brandon Davidson 68GP, 5-18-23 (AHL)
  6. Jordan Oesterle 4GP, 1-0-1 (AHL)
  7. Dillon Simpson, North Dakota (NCAA) (82GP, 6-13-19 NHLE)

This is a really nice group, the club will need to find a new Fedun, though (that might be Aulie). I’d imagine the Barons get Klefbom for less than half a season, if at all. Callups aside from the Swede might include Hunt, Gernat and Musil, and of course Davidson has been called up once but did not play. Oesterle and Simpson are college men, and the thing to watch here is how long it takes for them to adjust and then begin passing men above them. If Dillon Simpson passes Gernat and Musil, and that could happen this season, I expect we’ll see MacT cull the herd via trade before season’s end.

ewanyk

CENTER

  1. Will Acton 30GP, 3-2-5 (1.64/60 5×5)
  2. Travis Ewanyk (AHL) (82GP, 4-3-7 NHLE)
  3. Bogdan Yakimov (KHL) (82GP, 14-9-23 NHLE)
  4. Connor Jones (NCAA) (82GP, 8-11-19 NHLE)
  5. Jujhar Khaira (WHL) (82GP 7-11-18 NHLE)

Yakimov’s offense is better than these numbers imply, he posted his boxcars on 9.5 minutes a night in the KHL. I can see him scoring very well in the AHL this season. Khaira played in the button-down Constantine system in junior, so we may see a boxcar bump there, too. Acton could also see the NHL again this year, but if he’s in the AHL I bet he’s fighting with Ewanyk for checking time (he won’t be in a scoring role). These big prospects are going to get playing time under the MacT administration. Connor Jones (h/t: Patricia Teter) also has a story to tell at center.

hamilton1

LEFT WING

  1. Jesse Joensuu 42GP, 3-2-5 (0.65/60 5×5)
  2. Ryan Hamilton 2GP, 0-0-0 (nil)
  3. Curtis Hamilton (AHL) (82GP, 7-7-14 NHLE)
  4. Kale Kessy (AHL) (82GP, 1-3-4 NHLE)
  5. Mitchell Moroz (WHL) (82GP, 12-10-22 NHLE)
  6. Kellen Jones (NCAA) (82GP, 9-13-22 NHLE)
  7. Josh Winquist (WHL) (82GP, 17-17-34 NHLE)

This has the potential for hilarious results in 2014-15. The ‘establishment’ of Hamilton/Hamilton/Kessy have legit competition coming into the pro level in Moroz, Winquist and Jones. I think the Oilers may push Curtis Hamilton into a feature role (otherwise, why bother qualifying him?) but it’s anyone’s guess how long it will last. The young man has shown flashes, I’ll give him that much. Moroz should crush Kessy by Christmas and Winquist would have to be Cory-Cross-Slow to miss a top assignment before season’s end. Joensuu may or may not play in the AHL this season.

Utica vs. OKC Barons 1-9-14

RIGHT WING

  1. Tyler Pitlick 10GP, 1-0-1 (0.67/60 5×5) (82GP, 8-13-21 NHLE)
  2. Steve Pinizzotto 6GP, 0-2-2 (2.08/60 5×5) (82GP, 9-9-18 NHLE)
  3. Matt Ford (AHL) (82GP, 13-11-24 NHLE)
  4. Iiro Pakarinen (SML) (82GP, 15-7-22 NHLE)
  5. Andrew Miller (AHL) (82GP, 4-12-16 NHLE)
  6. Mitch Holmberg (WHL) (82GP, 21-19-40 NHLE)

This is a fun group, too. I think Pitlick may be in the NHL, and Pakarinen and or Pinizzotto may spend time there, too. Even with those callups, there’s a lot of talent here. Matt Ford is an established AHL veteran, Miller came on well later in the season after a tough start. Mitch Holmberg looks like a young Boog Powell up from Rochester. I have no idea about Holmberg’s future, beyond he’s going to have a pro career based on the boxcars.

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144 Responses to "OKLAHOMA, USA"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Along with big Russian Bogdan (BOH-DAN) Yakimov, the Barons will fairly block out the sun up the middle. They’re not the Thunder, but they’re getting there.”

    Stockton reference?

    Remember Nathan Deck? Got himself a pretty nice pro contract in Swe for next year (2nd tier league).

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=32779

  2. 36 percent body fat says:

    are winquist and holmberg on ahl contacts or the 50 man list

  3. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “Along with big Russian Bogdan (BOH-DAN) Yakimov, the Barons will fairly block out the sun up the middle. They’re not the Thunder, but they’re getting there.”

    Stockton reference?

    Remember Nathan Deck? Got himself a pretty nice pro contract in Swe for next year (2nd tier league).

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=32779

    NBA. Oklahoma City Thunder.

  4. Lowetide says:

    36 percent body fat:
    are winquist and holmberg on ahl contacts or the 50 man list

    AHL.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Left wing looks……….Tambelliniesqe

  6. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Left wing looks……….Tambelliniesqe

    Both Hamilton were disappointing last season for sure. I’m still kind of shocked the Oilers qualified Curtis Hamilton, but hopefully he finds his game this coming season. They’re going to need to hire some AHL vets for sure, though.

  7. theres oil in virginia says:

    Here I was thinking that the record number of earthquakes occurring around Oklahoma City were the result of irresponsibly pumping large volumes of fracking-wastewater into the ground. Turns out it’s just the OKC Barons roster doing off-ice workouts.

  8. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Why do you hate Jujhar Khaira so much? You must have seen him play a lot in all those obscure locations he’s played since draft day. If he’s not a better player than Will Acton today then I know nothing about hockey.

  9. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: I’m still kind of shocked the Oilers qualified Curtis Hamilton

    Right now, he’s their best option for offense.

    I thought Andrew Miller was a center. Did they shift him last year? Is that when his game picked up?

  10. steveb12344 says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    Why do you hate Jujhar Khaira so much? You must have seen him play a lot in all those obscure locations he’s played since draft day.If he’s not a better player than Will Acton today then I know nothing about hockey.

    I believe he listed them in order of where they sit on the depth chart as of today, not in order of skill.

    I think Acton will be that house on the side of the road LT referred to.

    Lots of room for some of these prospects to move up the charts.

  11. Lowetide says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    Why do you hate Jujhar Khaira so much? You must have seen him play a lot in all those obscure locations he’s played since draft day.If he’s not a better player than Will Acton today then I know nothing about hockey.

    This is listing by previous level. Acton, who played in the NHL last season, is listed above everyone else. That doesn’t mean he’ll be 1C, I actually address it in the comments.

  12. OilFire says:

    Woodguy:
    Left wing looks……….Tambelliniesqe

    Kudos to you for staying up last night writing a whole thesis (with referencing!). I know you’ve done it many times in the past and it’s a lot of work to hammer it out each time.

    I alternate amused/annoyed at rtb. Might be some interesting ideas hidden, but there’s a lot of road between germination and an a fully developed and proven theory. Scattered posts on fifty topics using unlabelled numbers don’t mark the way forward.

  13. spoiler says:

    Moroz will be crushing Kessy by the end of October.

    Playing with all the Top Prospects in Penticton, which included out and out rookies, he was one of the worst players on the ice. Have no idea why they even obtained him.

  14. Woodguy says:

    In which Willis says that Jultz is more famous than good and should be considered to be the one traded for a 2C:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/07/06/edmonton-oilers-must-consider-trading-justin-schultz/

  15. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Both Hamilton were disappointing last season for sure. I’m still kind of shocked the Oilers qualified Curtis Hamilton, but hopefully he finds his game this coming season. They’re going to need to hire some AHL vets for sure, though.

    I think MacT doesn’t give a shit about their record, only that they are putting their prospects in spots to develop.

    I doubt he adds one.

    He had a long talk with Todd Nelson about worrying more about developing (which Nelson is good at), gave him a nice 3 year contract and away they go.

  16. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Moroz will be crushing Kessy by the end of October.

    Playing with all the Top Prospects in Penticton, which included out and out rookies, he was one of the worst players on the ice. Have no idea why they even obtained him.

    TAMBELLINI!!!!

    Seriously, worst trade prospect trade ever with Reider going the other way.

    I’ve always suspected that Reider had a look at all the young Oiler wingers in the NHL and said “I’m not signing” so they traded him rather than lose his rights.

    Have no idea if I’m right.

  17. Woodguy says:

    OilFire: Kudos to you for staying up last night writing a whole thesis (with referencing!). I know you’ve done it many times in the past and it’s a lot of work to hammer it out each time.

    I alternate amused/annoyed at rtb.Might be some interesting ideas hidden, but there’s a lot of road between germination and an a fully developed and proven theory.Scattered posts on fifty topics using unlabelled numbers don’t mark the way forward.

    Thank you.

    Poster limit was asking some genuine questions, so at the very least we should come back with genuine answers.

  18. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    In which Willis says that Jultz is more famous than good and should be considered to be the one traded for a 2C:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/07/06/edmonton-oilers-must-consider-trading-justin-schultz/

    It was clear defense was the priority this off-season. There is no trade coming. MacT will not gut his newly-found defensive depth just after acquiring it.

  19. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: Right now, he’s their best option for offense.

    I thought Andrew Miller was a center.Did they shift him last year?Is that when his game picked up?

    He played RW all season as far as I know. Patricia helped out at center, so there’s some movement from original post.

  20. commonfan14 says:

    On qualifying Hamilton, didn’t he really click on a line with Brayden Schenn for a while in Saskatoon?

    Dot, dot, dot.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I think MacT doesn’t give a shit about their record, only that they are putting their prospects in spots to develop.

    I doubt he adds one.

    He had a long talk with Todd Nelson about worrying more about developing (which Nelson is good at), gave him a nice 3 year contract and away they go.

    hmmm. Still, center and left wing are thin. Teams often add veterans to fill out the group, I don’t know that the Barons can compete as is. Two rookie c’s for the skill lines is a monster task, as an example.

  22. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: It was clear defense was the priority this off-season.There is no trade coming. MacT will not gut his newly-found defensive depth just after acquiring it.

    He might trade Petry.

    We’ll see.

    MacT is not done at 2C.

  23. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: hmmm. Still, center and left wing are thin. Teams often add veterans to fill out the group, I don’t know that the Barons can compete as is. Two rookie c’s for the skill lines is a monster task, as an example.

    You could be right.

    How many bodies does OKC usually run at F?

    I count 18 already.

  24. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Lowetide,

    Fair enough. I guess I’m looking at the fact that Arcobello and lander were the 1 2 punch last year and some two will need to fill those spots. Most of the time the #1 guy on the farm gets the call to be a #4 guy in the show then skill determines if he’ll ever climb the ladder. I’d place Khaira ahead of Yakimov only because he’s more familiar with the north amarican game at this point, but once Yak2 gets a year of it under his belt that could change. Ewanyk, on the other hand, could be a long shot for NHL employment simply because he’s only good enough to be a fourth liner in the AHL. Personally I love the Center depth that’s starting to emerge in the system, especially if you include Roy and Chase. I agree about what you say how things will look WAY different in four years at the position. MacT has done a wonderfull job of addressing organisational depth at pretty much every position. I personally loved the trade of Smid for Brossoit simply because it addressed a need. As one example.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: You could be right.

    How many bodies does OKC usually run at F?

    I count 18 already.

    Some with go to Bakersfield and AHL teams often carry a whack of players.

  26. Lois Lowe says:

    I finally saw Khaira in person at the O camp and he’s a big body. If he manages to stick at C in the A or the big show, it bodes well for the Oilers. Yakimov is a ‘smaller’ 6’5″ and will probably play 15 or 20 pounds lighter than JarJar.

  27. Darrell says:

    Dumb Q – why is Nurse not listed ? Going back to Soo ?

  28. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: He might trade Petry.

    We’ll see.

    MacT is not done at 2C.

    The only thing I really see possible is Purcell and a pick for an overpaid C from a capstrung team. But I seriously doubt it. Arco is going to get his shot, and likely the Dry Sidler too.

  29. spoiler says:

    Maybe they pick up Ribeiro in-season after he’s been through whatever 12 steps he has to go through… but that would mean risking the room, they would have to be pretty desperate.

  30. Lois Lowe says:

    Darrell,

    I’m pretty sure that Darnell can’t play in the A due to stupid CHL rules and his age.

  31. steveb12344 says:

    Woodguy: Thank you.

    Poster limit was asking some genuine questions, so at the very least we should come back with genuine answers.

    To be fair, I think there was a lot of good stuff in Rikki’s post.

    One thing everyone admits is that there is still much work to be done to accurately track these players the way we would like.

    It seems to me that RTB is attempting to dig deeper than what’s being used now. ie Corsi, Fenwick etc. He’s using his own work, and his own ideas. Not just referencing work that’s been done by others.

    While there’s surely still some flaws in his conclusions, I think he still deserves more credit than he seems to get.

    It’s just very unfortunate that his spelling and grammar errors, along with the somewhat jumbled nature of his writing make it much harder for people to understand, and or take seriously what he’s saying.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Darrell:
    Dumb Q – why is Nurse not listed ?Going back to Soo ?

    NHL or OHL. One more year before he makes this list, Chase too.

  33. Lowetide says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    Lowetide,

    Fair enough. I guess I’m looking at the fact that Arcobello and lander were the 1 2 punch last year and some two will need to fill those spots.Most of the time the #1 guy on the farm gets the call to be a #4 guy in the show then skill determines if he’ll ever climb the ladder. I’d place Khaira ahead of Yakimov only because he’s more familiar with the north amarican game at this point, but once Yak2 gets a year of it under his belt that could change.Ewanyk, on the other hand, could be a long shot for NHL employment simply because he’s only good enough to be a fourth liner in the AHL. Personally I love the Center depth that’s starting to emerge in the system, especially if you include Roy and Chase.I agree about what you say how things will look WAY different in four years at the position.MacT has done a wonderfull job of addressing organisational depth at pretty much every position.I personally loved the trade of Smid for Brossoit simply because it addressed a need.As one example.

    for sure. The most exciting C’s to watch in OKC this year are Bogdan And Jujhar. If they emerge on skill lines, at center, lordy.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    In which Willis says that Jultz is more famous than good and should be considered to be the one traded for a 2C:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/07/06/edmonton-oilers-must-consider-trading-justin-schultz/

    I disagree with using RelCor without some context to compare Jultz and McBain.

    Here are their three most common D partners and TOI together in their 22/23 year old years:

    McBain:

    Player TOI CF% together CF% partner apart

    MCBAIN, 2301min 48.6
    PITKANEN 881 47.5 51.6
    GLEASON 498 47.1 47.3
    SPACEK 261 54.3 50.5

    Jultz:

    Player TOI CF% together CF% partner apart

    JULTZ 2084 43.2 0
    NULTZ 807 43.2 44
    FERENCE 464 42.1 43.7
    BELOV 215 49 45.6

    While I agree that Jultz hasn’t show enough to warrant the bizarre adoration from Kingsway, you have to take into account that 1271 of his first 2084 5v5 minutes in the NHL were played with Nultz and Ference.

    None of Jultz’ partners gets a significant bump playing away from him and he seemed to make Belov better, and they posted a decent number together.

    I think many of us are going to be pleasantly surprised at Jultz’ possession numbers this year if:

    1) They keep him away from Ference, or if they are together its on the 3rd pair

    2) Ramsay helps Eakins fix the systemic corsi issues (Eakins is quoted as saying “He’s already shown me two things that I need to change”)

    Has Jultz shown a ton?

    Nope.

    Has he been tied with boat anchors and not great coaching since he got the NHL? Most probably.

    Should be fun to watch.

  35. Darrell says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks!

  36. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344: To be fair, I think there was a lot of good stuff in Rikki’s post.

    One thing everyone admits is that there is still much work to be done to accurately track these players the way we would like.

    It seems to me that RTB is attempting to dig deeper than what’s being used now. ie Corsi, Fenwick etc.He’s using his own work, and his own ideas.Not just referencing work that’s been done by others.

    While there’s surely still some flaws in his conclusions, I think he still deserves more credit than he seems to get.

    It’s just very unfortunate that his spelling and grammar errors, along with the somewhat jumbled nature of his writing make it much harder for people to understand, and or take seriously what he’s saying.

    I’ve stated many times that I think ricki has some interesting ideas.

    He can’t get past tying ONSV% to player performance and its makes all his results unreliable.

    He also hangs on really small sample sizes when they suit him.

    He needs to take the garbage out his stuff and the results will be much more interesting.

    Now his results basically show: Dmen who play a lot against 4th line knuckle dragger post really good ONSV% and therefore really good GAON/60.

    That results isn’t interesting.

    We know why that result happens.

    Ricki attributes it to the Dman, when its all about ONSV%

  37. Ducey says:

    All the small guys on AHL deals will likely start in Bakersfield: Jones brothers, Holmberg, Winquist, maybe even Pakerinen.

    Its a positive that they have a “prospect” in almost every starting position. The only guys who would be considered AHL vets (260+ games) would be Pinnizotto, Ford, and Ryan Hamilton (they can have up to 12)

    And they only have 45 roster spots used (not including Nurse).

    Pretty good roster management to have that many prospects bubbling under as pros and still have so many roster spots open.

    I would agree with Woodguy. There should not be much need to add any AHL vets to fill out OKC.

    Signing Laktionov for C depth on the NHL team would be welcome though.

  38. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Ducey,

    What a difference a good GM makes. Night and day since MacT took over.

  39. Andy P says:

    Woodguy:
    In which Willis says that Jultz is more famous than good and should be considered to be the one traded for a 2C:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/07/06/edmonton-oilers-must-consider-trading-justin-schultz/

    Justin has spent his entire NHL career under the tutelage of Steve Smith. I wonder what impact Craig Ramsay will have on his play this season.

  40. steveb12344 says:

    Woodguy: I’ve stated many times that I think ricki has some interesting ideas.

    He can’t get past tying ONSV% to player performance and its makes all his results unreliable.

    He also hangs on really small sample sizes when they suit him.

    He needs to take the garbage out his stuff and the results will be much more interesting.

    Now his results basically show: Dmen who play a lot against 4th line knuckle dragger post really good ONSV% and therefore really good GAON/60.

    That results isn’t interesting.

    We know why that result happens.

    Ricki attributes it to the Dman, when its all about ONSV%

    You may be right about the onsv%, but there was a lot more to that post than just that.

    There’s a pretty easy way to put the issue to rest one way or the other though. Rikki maintains that Nikitin, Fayne, and Aulie, are all near top of the league by these metrics, and that they’ve been there repeatedly.

    If they do indeed repeat those numbers playing for the Oil than there might be something to it. If they fall back down to earth than it must have been more a result of team, qualcomp and goalie as you’ve said.

  41. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Thank you.

    Poster limit was asking some genuine questions, so at the very least we should come back with genuine answers.

    I agree with Oilfire. See, it’s not always a waste of time and a sure way to frustrate yourself! I got a lot out of that back-and-forth as well.

  42. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: He played RW all season as far as I know. Patricia helped out at center, so there’s some movement from original post.

    Patricia at artfulpuck presumably? Thanks Patricia.

  43. Darrell says:

    Lowetide,

    LT,
    In hopes of not asking more questions I googled the slide rule and found the below article out of Philly:

    http://thehockeyguys.net/taking-a-look-at-sean-coututiers-entry-level-slide/

    It just makes me more curious on the CBA as it appears to be an all or nothing for 18/19 y/o prospects ? Do you have the CBA handy as Nurse was called-up and played which would put him in-line with your games played references. Do the games have to be consecutive in an attempt to buy time to make a decision or God forbid there is an injury ?

    Thanks,
    Darrell

  44. steveb12344 says:

    5th set between Federer and Djokovic.

    Pretty awesome theatre.

  45. Lowetide says:

    Darrell:
    Lowetide,

    LT,
    In hopes of not asking more questions I googled the slide rule and found the below article out of Philly:

    http://thehockeyguys.net/taking-a-look-at-sean-coututiers-entry-level-slide/

    It just makes me more curious on the CBA as it appears to be an all or nothing for 18/19 y/o prospects ?Do you have the CBA handy as Nurse was called-up and played which would put him in-line with your games played references.Do the games have to be consecutive in an attempt to buy time to make a decision or God forbid there is an injury ?

    Thanks,
    Darrell

    No, he can play 9 games over 82 games total as far as I know. No one would do that, but I don’t believe there’s a rule prohibiting

  46. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler: It was clear defense was the priority this off-season.There is no trade coming. MacT will not gut his newly-found defensive depth just after acquiring it.

    I agree. My feeling is that if either of those two players (Schultz, Petry) wanted out or were playing hardball, they would have filed for arbitration. That gets you a short, good-paying contract and then they’d both come out as UFA in a couple of years (Petry for sure, Schultz too, right?). If they were told they were being traded (or got that sense), then wouldn’t they be even more likely to file? Getting traded to who-knows-where only to be screwed around by some jackass GM, with no recourse. I’m surprised they didn’t file anyway, just to be safe.

  47. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: MacT is not done at 2C.

    Maybe, but he hasn’t shown a history of properly evaluating the readiness of centers at the NHL level. I think he’s going with Draisaitl. Nuge did it, and he’s puny by comparison. Both are skilled.

    Then again, I thought Gagner would still be an Oiler, and I was surprised when MacT found some value (we hope) out there and pulled the trigger.

  48. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: Maybe, but he hasn’t shown a history of properly evaluating the readiness of centers at the NHL level.I think he’s going with Draisaitl.Nuge did it, and he’s puny by comparison.Both are skilled.

    Then again, I thought Gagner would still be an Oiler, and I was surprised when MacT found some value (we hope) out there and pulled the trigger.

    I think people have taken MacT’s words about three scoring lines and adopted “he must” toward an additional C. I agree he’ll add someone, but am convinced we’ll see Zack Smith more than Brayden Schenn.

    UNLESS he plans to trade Petry, and that makes no sense.

    Opening night:

    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Draisaitl-Pouliot-Perron
    Smith-Yakupov-Purcell
    Gordon-Hendricks-Pitlick

  49. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344: You may be right about the onsv%, but there was a lot more to that post than just that.

    There’s a pretty easy way to put the issue to rest one way or the other though.Rikki maintains that Nikitin, Fayne, and Aulie, are all near top of the league by these metrics, and that they’ve been there repeatedly.

    If they do indeed repeat those numbers playing for the Oil than there might be something to it.If they fall back down to earth than it must have been more a result of team, qualcomp and goalie as you’ve said.

    The other thing he hangs his hat on is limiting shots of a certain distance.

    Extraskater looked at this and didn’t find much: http://blog.extraskater.com/2014/06/on-ice-shot-distance/

    Ricki finds interesting results that arise from small samples and immediately attributes all results to the Dmen.

    GAON/60 in influenced by SA/60 (shots against) by the Dmen, and the SV%ON is beyond his control.

    There are interesting ideas, but he includes so much random noise and things players don’t control that the results are meaningless.

  50. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Maybe, but he hasn’t shown a history of properly evaluating the readiness of centers at the NHL level.I think he’s going with Draisaitl.Nuge did it, and he’s puny by comparison.Both are skilled.

    Then again, I thought Gagner would still be an Oiler, and I was surprised when MacT found some value (we hope) out there and pulled the trigger.

    I think MacT learned a ton his rookie season and got humbled, which is always good for honest evaluation.

    I really don’t think he’s done at 2C and I think he’s aiming high.

  51. admiralmark says:

    Woodguy:

    In which Willis says that Jultz is more famous than good and should be considered to be the one traded for a 2C:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/07/06/edmonton-oilers-must-consider-trading-justin-schultz/

    It’s an intresting take by Willis. I suspect that any trade like the one he suggested O’Reilly for Shultz would have to include a heavy heavy sweetner. So the devil would be in those details.

    One has to wonder with this improved D how much will Shultz improve shouldering less of the load? It has the feel that this could be somewhat of a reset on his development.

  52. theres oil in virginia says:

    steveb12344: To be fair, I think there was a lot of good stuff in Rikki’s post.

    One thing everyone admits is that there is still much work to be done to accurately track these players the way we would like.

    It seems to me that RTB is attempting to dig deeper than what’s being used now. ie Corsi, Fenwick etc.He’s using his own work, and his own ideas.Not just referencing work that’s been done by others.

    While there’s surely still some flaws in his conclusions, I think he still deserves more credit than he seems to get.

    It’s just very unfortunate that his spelling and grammar errors, along with the somewhat jumbled nature of his writing make it much harder for people to understand, and or take seriously what he’s saying.

    I like RTBs posts lately.

    I think Woodguy and Dellow and others are also digging deeper into the stats, and it really shouldn’t matter whether they use their own work or aggregate what others do. RTB uses other people’s work as well. I think his conclusions are pretty sound, and I think that Woodguy says this too. It’s his basis that WG takes issue with, not his conclusions. Agreed about the spelling/grammar. Although it is comical, and I don’t think RTB cares.

  53. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    but am convinced we’ll see Zack Smith more than Brayden Schenn.

    So the choice is between a not good player and a meh player?
    :)

  54. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    I think Woodguy and Dellow and others are also digging deeper into the stats

    I’m not digging deeper into anything.

    I jump on other’s work as I don’t have the database, time, skill, brain power, will, intestinal fortitude to do anything meaningful.

    Appreciate the hat tip, but I’m a follower, not a pioneer in this stuff.

  55. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Lowetide,

    but am convinced we’ll see Zack Smith more than Brayden Schenn.

    So the choice is between a not good player and a meh player?:)

    Ah, I think Zack Smith is a little better than meh, but the fact is EDM didn’t sign Legwand and can’t trade for a top end C without ripping apart the D or trading 2015 1st rder. Smith is an adequate bridge.

  56. Hammers says:

    Okl looks good in goal and on “D” but O’boy our forwards look like the forgotten group other than 5 or 6 guys and that includes Pitlick & Joensuu . Nelson has his work cut out .

  57. Woodguy says:

    admiralmark,

    One has to wonder with this improved D how much will Shultz improve shouldering less of the load? It has the feel that this could be somewhat of a reset on his development.

    I hope he has a good year.

    Early results are not promising, but you never know.

    He seems to be more of an opportunistic scorer than someone who drives possession.

    In forward terms, more of a Gaborik than a Justin Williams.

  58. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Draisaitl-Pouliot-Perron
    Smith-Yakupov-Purcell
    Gordon-Hendricks-Pitlick

    Backslider! ;)

  59. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: I think people have taken MacT’s words about three scoring lines and adopted “he must” toward an additional C. I agree he’ll add someone, but am convinced we’ll see Zack Smith more than Brayden Schenn. UNLESS he plans to trade Petry, and that makes no sense. Opening night:RNH-Hall-EberleDraisaitl-Pouliot-PerronSmith-Yakupov-PurcellGordon-Hendricks-Pitlick

    Here is a really scary idea . Got it from Buffalo contact . McT may be getting Lacavlier at 50% cost . Supposedly he will go to any team willing to give him 2nd line playing time . Feels he has something to prove .

  60. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: Backslider! ;)

    If you can figure a way to get Nielson on this roster without giving up defense and or the 2015 1st rder, music!

  61. Lowetide says:

    Hammers: Here is a really scary idea . Got it from Buffalo contact . McT may be getting Lacavlier at 50% cost . Supposedly he will go to any team willing to give him 2nd line playing time . Feels he has something to prove .

    He looks awful bad.

  62. russ99 says:

    The lack of skill forwards in the system is gonna come back to bite us at some point.

  63. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: He looks awful bad.

    That’s why I said it was scary . Supposibly it was tied into Petry for Coburn but what the hell until something happens with signing Petry / Schultz we wait .

  64. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Ah, I think Zack Smith is a little better than meh, but the fact is EDM didn’t sign Legwand and can’t trade for a top end C without ripping apart the D or trading 2015 1st rder. Smith is an adequate bridge.

    Smith’s RelCor last 3 years:

    2011-2012 Season -5.6
    2012-2013 Season -2.6
    2013-2014 Season -6.7

    Smith’s QC & ZS last 3 years:

    2011-2012 Season Soft 3rds with harder ZS
    2012-2013 Season Soft 3rds with harder ZS
    2013-2014 Season Soft 3rds with harder ZS

    All 3 years he’s in the bottom left quandrant, so he’s starting more in his own end, but they aren’t putting him out against Crosby

    Pretty standard 3C deployment

    5v5 pts/60

    2011-2012 Season 1.50
    2012-2013 Season 1.10
    2013-2014 Season 1.06

    So he hits the 1.50 pts/60 threshold of a 3rd liner once in 3 years and that was 3 years ago

    Most common F mates and D mates: (only including “significant TOI together)

    2011-2012 Season F =Condra, Kaspars, Neil D= Phillips, Cowan, Gonachar, Kuba
    2012-2013 Season F= Neil, Greening D = Methot, Gonchar, Phillips, Gryba
    2013-2014 Season F= Neil, Greening D= Methot, Phillips, Karlsson, Gryba

    So, he’s not getting the vaunt to play with.

    Neil is a millstone about anyone’s neck.

    Perhaps his time away from corsi machine Karlsson affects is RelCor a ton

    In all though, I don’t really see much there that would make me believe he’s a 2C candidate for anyone’s team.

  65. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy:
    theres oil in virginia,

    I think Woodguy and Dellow and others are also digging deeper into the stats

    I’m not digging deeper into anything.

    I jump on other’s work as I don’t have the database, time, skill, brain power, will, intestinal fortitude to do anything meaningful.

    Appreciate the hat tip, but I’m a follower, not a pioneer in this stuff.

    Ha! Fine, if you want to be modest, then so be it.

    Maybe you’re not doing it to the level of Dellow, but you are constantly probing the existing stats and trying to put them together in a way that illuminates something insightful. That’s what I meant by digging deeper.

    I didn’t see that you and SteveB had been posting when I jumped in, so I’ll clarify something. I think that RTB’s conclusions are fine if you choose to start at his starting point (his set of assumptions). His logic is sound. Personally, I’m not sure who’s right, but I haven’t read the articles about how much defensemen influence save %. I have noticed though that almost all of the awesome flashing-glove-hand saves are due to the puck hitting the glove first, and then the goalie reacts. Positioning sure seems important, and it’s not intuitive that the defensemen would not influence the quality of the shot. (<– double-negative alert)

    Also, I'm still agnostic about Corsi/Fenwick, particularly because of the large sample size needed in order to produce correlation. It doesn't correlate with offense or winning from game to game. I would think that if only luck/goalie was throwing the results, then you would still see something like a 90% correlation. I'm definitely on board with the premise that Corsi is a proxy for "procession", and you'd rather have the puck than not. Where I start wondering is when Corsi is applied to an individual player. In order to find out how much the player influences possession, adjustments are needed and I'm never sure if the adjustments being made are sufficient/proper. So, I remain interested and agnostic. I also think Corsi stinks at evaluating defensemen, which may be why I'm interested in RTB's posts.

    I think the best example I've seen of the ability of Corsi to suss out results was Dellow's posts on Boudreau.

  66. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: If you can figure a way to get Nielson on this roster without giving up defense and or the 2015 1st rder, music!

    I just meant about the CLR. You’ve reverted.

  67. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: I just meant about the CLR.You’ve reverted.

    Oh. Well, it’s from childhood so I’m always going to be a reverter.

  68. Ryan says:

    It’s surprising how fast the new math has spread… While the uptake around the league for Btn stats was largely glacial initially, bloggers all over the place are now citing team fenclose and Corsi rel…

    It’s amazing good sites like extraskater and hockey analysis are these days. The vollman sledgehammer is a thing of beauty…

    Read some of Adrew Devitt’s articles and you’d almost swear he’s an Oilers blogger (not a Flyers)..

    http://www.poweranks.com/blog/why-the-san-jose-sharks-rebuild-is-a-farce

  69. Lowetide says:

    WG: I’m not convinced the Oilers will be getting a 2C, and if they do it’s going to cost them Petry and blow a hole in the defense. I expect Zack Smith type is the get.

    Also, Vollman Sledgehammer implies Qual Comp wasn’t exactly soft as you implied

    http://www.puckrant.com/Slapshot/ZACK_CHRISTMAS%2F3727

  70. OilFire says:

    theres oil in virginia: I like RTBs posts lately.

    I think his (RTB) conclusions are pretty sound, and I think that Woodguy says this too.It’s his basis that WG takes issue with, not his conclusions.

    I don’t think you’ll find much support for getting the right answer for the wrong reasons. The answers have the nasty habit of losing their precision when you expand the scope.

    There might be something in there, or it might all be as bizarre as multiplying a player’s total even strength points (EVP) by the percentage of goals scored for which they got a point and were on the ice for (point share, ps%).

    rickithebear:
    Evp/60 × ps% = evp contribution

    I don’t disagree with those who say there might be something in there. Until someone separates the chaff from the wheat, I can’t do much with his manifesto.

  71. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: I think MacT learned a ton his rookie season and got humbled, which is always good for honest evaluation.

    I really don’t think he’s done at 2C and I think he’s aiming high.

    Agreed that MacT has been a quick study. I guess that if they’re aiming high, then it would mean a big shakeup, including bigger pieces than Petry or Schultz. So far, his verbal has been counter to that though.

    I also think it would be foolish to get the roster cap-strapped this year. Pushing bonus payouts to next year is a mistake. He just shed some pretty hefty contracts coming into this year (Smyth, Hemsky, Horcoff, etc). Looking forward, there are a few contracts that he’ll have to deal with. Some, like Hendricks and Ference, will almost certainly be a drag. Others though could turn out to be drags as well, such as Pouliot. The list gets bigger if you only look ahead to two years from now (2015-16, Purcell, Nikitin). All of those contracts are liabilities. If all goes well, the team will be competing for something better than 1st overall, and then the sloppiness of right now can bite you in the ass.

    So, if he’s going for a big target, he’d better get it right. If he manages to take on a big salary in exchange for a lesser piece (cap relief for the other team), then he’s got numbers to worry about. If he makes a trade involving some of the “core”, then he’s got maybe bigger concerns. You simply can not afford to lose a trade involving your star players. I wonder if the better move isn’t just to sit tight and watch the team become a contender, thereby making it more appealing for UFAs. Good thing he was grey when he took the job.

  72. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Also, I’m still agnostic about Corsi/Fenwick, particularly because of the large sample size needed in order to produce correlation. It doesn’t correlate with offense or winning from game to game.

    The data is there since 2006/07, something like a million shot attempts in the data bases.

    Its incredibly tough to predict who will win any one particular game. Luck’s role gets larger as the samples get smaller and 1 game is a pretty small sample.

    What shot metric do well is predict who the best teams are and playoff success

    Read this:

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    Excellent work that shows the best 5v5 Fenclose teams are simply the best teams.

    That was written in spring 2013. Since then there have been two more Stanley Cup Champs.

    CHI 2013 – 2nd in the NHL in regular season Fenclose

    LAK 2014 – 1st in the NHL regular season in Fenclose

    Shot metrics predict playoff success better than any other metric.

  73. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: Oh. Well, it’s from childhood so I’m always going to be a reverter.

    It was definitely more clear given the context (center depth). Okay, I’m braced for the public flogging now…how many lashes is it again?

  74. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: I’m not convinced the Oilers will be getting a 2C, and if they do it’s going to cost them Petry and blow a hole in the defense. I expect Zack Smith type is the get.

    Also, Vollman Sledgehammer implies Qual Comp wasn’t exactly soft as you implied

    http://www.puckrant.com/Slapshot/ZACK_CHRISTMAS%2F3727

    Extraskater Vollman chart for this year has him firmly behind Turris and Spezza in terms of QC : http://www.extraskater.com/team/ottawa-senators/2013

  75. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: It was definitely more clear given the context (center depth).Okay, I’m braced for the public flogging now…how many lashes is it again?

    I’ve passed on lashes. Now, I pause, look over my glasses, and express my extreme disappointment.

  76. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Extraskater Vollman chart for this year has him firmly behind Turris and Spezza in terms of QC : http://www.extraskater.com/team/ottawa-senators/2013

    WOW. That’s a mistake somewhere. Which is more accurate? Someone has it wrong there, that’s a gulf.

  77. WeirsBeard says:

    Chase can only play in the A next year after the junior season ends right? Too bad, would like to see him move up a level.

    As far as the major league centre depth chart, someone has to shake loose from a cap strung team. Too many clubs at or over the limit. Someone decent will be available for less than market value.

  78. striatic says:

    MacT wants a 2C, but given what he said at his post UFA D-Day presser he was thinking “Worst case we’ll just sign Jokinen or Legwand.” Pretty sure they were thinking Legwand based on the wording of his quote.

    Now he must be thinking “Uh oh.”

    So they are improvising. Anything could happen.

  79. gd says:

    Woodguy: I think MacT learned a ton his rookie season and got humbled, which is always good for honest evaluation.

    I really don’t think he’s done at 2C and I think he’s aiming high.

    I am hopeful like you that MacT learned a lot last season and am encouraged that him and Howson appear open minded to new ideas. I was looking at projecting the West to three years from now and I believe with competent management the Oilers could legitimately be the best team in the West.

    -Van, Ariz, SJ, Nash, Cal should be worse than the Oilers, no matter who gets McDavid (who will only be in his second year)
    -I think Chicago’s window closes once they sign Toews/Kane unless it is for less than $9Mill each a year. The Crawford/Hossa contracts will start to hurt them by then.
    -I think LA’s window starts to close once Kopitar’s contract runs out in two years. The Brown/Richards/Carter/Gaborik deals will limit their flexibility then.
    -Winnipeg could actually be pretty good if Trouba/Scheiffle become elite, but the mix of players, seems like they have a ceiling that is much lower than the Oilers.
    -St Louis is so deep they should be pretty competitive for quite awhile, but guys like Backes, Stastny and Steen are getting sneaky old and other than Pietrangelo, they don’t really have any other elite players.
    -Anaheim has the young depth, but I think in three years the Perry/Getzlaf contracts become a bit of an anchor.
    -Minnesota also has the young depth, but the Parise/Koivu/Vanek contracts could really limit them in three year, though I think Suter will be still worth his contract in three years.
    -Colorado is one team with the elite young talent, but I really sense that Sakic/Sherman/Roy will not be competent enough to become elite and other than Barrie, they really don’t have a lot of NHL prospects in their system.
    -Dallas could be the biggest threat as: 1) I think Nill is very competent 2) They have a lot of young skill, but who will be better in three years might be decided by whether Nemeth/Oleksiuk outplay Nurse/Klefbom/Marancin.

    If I’m MacT, I keep this in mind as the focus is to get as good as possible in three years. I think that means the most important thing this offseason is to try to ensure as effective development plan exists for the young Dman and do whatever they can to put Leon in the best position to succeed.

    I also believe one of Babcock, McClellan, Tippett, Vigneault or Quennville will be available in the next two years.

    ps: If the Oil did take Lecavalier at 50%, how would the buyout work if they did it either after 2014-15 or 2015-16?

  80. ididtheiggy says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide: I’ve passed on lashes. Now, I pause, look over my glasses, and express my extreme disappointment.

    The worst of all punishments.

  81. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: The data is there since 2006/07, something like a million shot attempts in the data bases.

    Its incredibly tough to predict who will win any one particular game. Luck’s role gets larger as the samples get smaller and 1 game is a pretty small sample.

    What shot metric do well is predict who the best teams are and playoff success

    Read this:

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    Excellent work that shows the best 5v5 Fenclose teams are simply the best teams.

    That was written in spring 2013. Since then there have been two more Stanley Cup Champs.

    CHI 2013 – 2nd in the NHL in regular season Fenclose

    LAK 2014 – 1st in the NHL regular season in Fenclose

    Shot metrics predict playoff success better than any other metric.

    Ah yes. Forgot about this aspect of your arguments. I’ve read that link (you’ve previous pointed me to it). I agree with you here, without reservation. If I was a betting man, I’d be on that path. Of course, you can’t apply this to any single game and expect a payout; you’d have to bet on a string of games, and then the odds are in your favor.

  82. theres oil in virginia says:

    ididtheiggy:
    Lowetide,

    The worst of all punishments.

    Ha! I was thinking that too.

    But LT, you’ve misunderstood me. I’m expecting lashes from others for making a statement in support of your CLR. Bruce will probably be along to do so shortly. I think he has a program that monitors this site, and any statement in support of CLR sets off the alarm.

  83. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: Ha!I was thinking that too.

    But LT, you’ve misunderstood me.I’m expecting lashes from others for making a statement in support of your CLR.Bruce will probably be along to do so shortly.I think he has a program that monitors this site, and any statement in support of CLR sets off the alarm.

    Oh, well if you’re onside welcome aboard. I know some are, but it’s been awhile since the subject came up so my memory lapsed on the subject. Bruce agrees, he’s just too stubborn to give in on an argument he’s invested so many years in.

    PS, also loves refs. Damndest thing.

  84. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: Oh, well if you’re onside welcome aboard. I know some are, but it’s been awhile since the subject came up so my memory lapsed on the subject. Bruce agrees, he’s just too stubborn to give in on an argument he’s invested so many years in.

    PS, also loves refs. Damndest thing.

    I know, it’s odd. You’ll never hear him say an unkind word about them.

    I was resistant at first, but I have been assimilated.

  85. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: WOW. That’s a mistake somewhere. Which is more accurate? Someone has it wrong there, that’s a gulf.

    Extraskater uses TOI/gm and I think Vollman uses Gabe’s QC. I think Extra skater is closer.

    I generally use both and look at common line mates to suss it out.

    There’s a difference in the graphs, but in reality its not that much.

  86. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: I’m not convinced the Oilers will be getting a 2C, and if they do it’s going to cost them Petry and blow a hole in the defense. I expect Zack Smith type is the get.

    Also, Vollman Sledgehammer implies Qual Comp wasn’t exactly soft as you implied

    http://www.puckrant.com/Slapshot/ZACK_CHRISTMAS%2F3727

    I expect them to do what you don’t want them to do, and that’s trade a Dman and a good pick for a C.

    NYI are the perfect partner.

    I don’t think MacT wants a gapping hole at 2C with a patch job.

    I really all depends on how he rates Arco imo.

    If he trusts Klef and Marincin, he’s trade a dman (or one of them) for the C.

    Marincin
    Petry
    Fayne
    Nikitin
    Jultz
    Ference
    Klefbom

    That’s 7, one gone for the C and Aulie is the 7D

    This is purely a guess based on the public verbal.

  87. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Ah yes.Forgot about this aspect of your arguments.I’ve read that link (you’ve previous pointed me to it).I agree with you here, without reservation.If I was a betting man, I’d be on that path.Of course, you can’t apply this to any single game and expect a payout; you’d have to bet on a string of games, and then the odds are in your favor.

    To look at single games you need to balance:

    1) Fenclose of Home team at home
    2) Fenclose of Visiting team on the road
    3) Number of games recently played (2nd in 2, 2nd in 3, 3rd in 4 etc.)
    4) Starting goalies SV%
    5) Evenly weighted coin

    Picking games is really tough

  88. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    BTN has him trailing the top 2C’s, but miles from the dregs suggested by ES

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=11&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f5=OTT&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+11+12+13+14+15+16#

    I think the difference between QC and CorQC is:

    QC relies on players on the ice during a goal event.

    Cor QC relies on players on the ice during a shot attempt

    If that’s true then CorQC is more accurate due to sample size and he and Spezza are very close.

  89. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I expect them to do what you don’t want them to do, and that’s trade a Dman and a good pick for a C.

    NYI are the perfect partner.

    Well, that defense was fun while it lasted. :-) Balance= a mystery. One good thing, Ramsay will have both Marincin and Klefbom for the full season, and that means they’ll be better a year from now.

  90. FastOil says:

    gd: I am hopeful like you that MacT learned a lot last season and am encouraged that him and Howson appear open minded to new ideas. I was looking at projecting the West to three years from now and I believe with competent management the Oilers could legitimately be the best team in the West.

    -Van, Ariz, SJ, Nash, Cal should be worse than the Oilers, no matter who gets McDavid (who will only be in his second year)
    -I think Chicago’s window closes once they sign Toews/Kane unless it is for less than $9Mill each a year. The Crawford/Hossa contracts will start to hurt them by then.
    -I think LA’s window starts to close once Kopitar’s contract runs out in two years. The Brown/Richards/Carter/Gaborik deals will limit their flexibility then.
    -Winnipeg could actually be pretty good if Trouba/Scheiffle become elite, but the mix of players, seems like they have a ceiling that is much lower than the Oilers.
    -St Louis is so deep they should be pretty competitive for quite awhile, but guys like Backes, Stastny and Steen are getting sneaky old and other than Pietrangelo, they don’t really have any other elite players.
    -Anaheim has the young depth, but I think in three years the Perry/Getzlaf contracts become a bit of an anchor.
    -Minnesota also has the young depth, but the Parise/Koivu/Vanek contracts could really limit them in three year, though I think Suter will be still worth his contract in three years.
    -Colorado is one team with the elite young talent, but I really sense that Sakic/Sherman/Roy will not be competent enough to become elite and other than Barrie, they really don’t have a lot of NHL prospects in their system.
    -Dallas could be the biggest threat as:1) I think Nill is very competent 2) They have a lot of young skill, but who will be better in three years might be decided by whether Nemeth/Oleksiuk outplay Nurse/Klefbom/Marancin.

    If I’m MacT, I keep this in mind as the focus is to get as good as possible in three years. I think that means the most important thing this offseason is to try to ensure as effective development plan exists for the young Dman and do whatever they can to put Leon in the best position to succeed.

    I also believe one of Babcock, McClellan, Tippett, Vigneault or Quennville will be available in the next two years.

    ps: If the Oil did take Lecavalier at 50%, how would the buyout work if they did it either after 2014-15 or 2015-16?

    I agree that many teams, as they stand, are peaking right now because of money and/or age.

    But there is a wild card sitting at a desk for each. The teams won’t remain static. A luxury a good team has is that all of it’s players look better than they are. I think a guy like Lombardi has the brains and balls to start moving big pieces, choosing the right assets before or just after they begin to decline, and keep opening cap and renewing assets.

    The Oilers are one asset away from being a serious team right now. If they picked up a Stastny, Johansen or ROR without giving up D they will be a handful starting this year. Not the Cup winner, but a balanced team with a lot of talent. A team that doesn’t garner any respect that all of the sudden is coming like gangbusters shift after shift, plays fast, doesn’t stop, and is no longer able to be punked.

    Moving Perron, Eberle or Yak for a player like that gets the party started now without blowing another hole in the leaky boat. Moving Petry is at best a sideways move because Schultz, despite having ‘game’, cannot yet play 5v5 and win the day. Nikitin is not likely as good as Petry, hasn’t been yet, and Weber isn’t an option for Schultz’ partner. Schultz might get there, but I can’t see a one year turn around like that.

    We’ll see what MacT is made of. If it isn’t a player like I mentioned, or maybe Couturier as Gordon’s replacement when Draisy arrives, he might as well use what he has in Lander or Arco who may not score a lot but aren’t useless and will score as much as all of the 3C’s that have been mentioned everywhere like Smith, Bailey etc. Or sign Roy and have Gordon and RNH play toughs and have him run the soft parade with Yak and Pouliot or something.

  91. VanOil says:

    Backpfeifengesicht (German)
    ‘A face badly in need of a fist’

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/wwfeatures/464_261/images/live/p0/22/2z/p0222ztl.jpg

    Germans have hockey talk mastered. Let hope Draisaitl masters the NHL.

    This sight is great https://www.behance.net/gallery/9633585/Found-In-Translation

  92. OilClog says:

    Lowetide: Well, that defense was fun while it lasted. Balance= a mystery. One good thing, Ramsay will have both Marincin and Klefbom for the full season, and that means they’ll be better a year from now.

    Moving Petry isn’t ideal, yet the Oilers have too many high end prospects on the back end trying to smash the door down, with bare few prime minutes to split between themselves. There’s a giant log jam with a big ugly hole up the middle. Petry and Draft pick is a large payment, but I think the possible payback is something the Oilers have to do for a real “balance” on this roster.

    The second line hole is going to kill us more long term then the transition from Petry to Maricin and Klefbom.

    ROR, E.Stall, J.Stall

    Not

    Eakin, Smith, or any of the other very nice but not a Offset for the Nuge. This player coming in has to be able to take the load of the Nuge on a off night, or just to not simply shoulder of the offensive responsibilities up the middle on One player.

  93. Marcus Oilerius says:

    I think there’s a more than fair chance that they sign both d-men, give Draisaitl or one of the other prospects a look, and if those fail the sniff test, run with Arcobello until they can trade for a 2C. I think it’s premature to deal Schultz this season, unless we can get an O’Reilly/Johansen in return. Petry is more of a known commodity and provided the contract is sane, has value now on the top unit and in the future (when we have depth) on the second pairing.

    We’re not hitting the playoffs this season anyway, barring some Colorado-style PDO, and I don’t think that Schultz for Johansen or Petry for Berglund is going to move us past 10th in a very deep West.

  94. Marc says:

    Woodguy:
    In which Willis says that Jultz is more famous than good and should be considered to be the one traded for a 2C:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/07/06/edmonton-oilers-must-consider-trading-justin-schultz/

    The big problem with Jonathan’s piece can be found in the fifth paragraph:
    “Additionally, Schultz had an advantage of a long and slow development path. Before turning pro, he played his draft year and post-draft year in the BCHL and followed that up with three years of college hockey. By the time he entered the professional ranks, he was already 22 years of age.”

    He assumes that it has somehow been advantageous to Schultz to have spent four years in Junior A/college before turning pro. I have never see the truth of that statement demonstrated anywhere – if anyone is aware of any work on this, I’d be grateful if you could point me towards it.

    It seems to be an article of faith to a lot of people that more time in the minors = better for a prospect’s development. The Detroit model etc etc. But how sure are we that it’s really true? There are certainly a plenty of examples of players who started in the NHL before they were ready, and it seemed to harm their development – Brule, Lander, Neidereiter – enough that a hypothesis that promotion to the NHL too soon delays (if not fatally undermines) their development into an effective NHL player, seems plausible.

    It does not necessarily follow though that the reverse of this – spending more time in the minors speeds up a player’s development into an effective NHL player – is true. If it were true, you should be able to discern some sort of pattern whereby those players who spend lots of time in the minors become effective NHL players more quickly than those who don’t. The Oilers are the only team I follow, but it sure is hard to see such a pattern there.

    Grebeshkov and Smid were both mid-first round picks. Grebeshkov spent more than twice as long in the minors (AHL and Russia) so he should have become an effective NHL player much more quickly than Smid. Except he didn’t. Petry and Schultz (both second round picks) spent almost the exact same amount of time in the minors (Jr A/college/AHL). Petry adjusted to the NHL level much more quickly than Schultz, but neither of them adjusted nearly as quickly as Marincin (another second round pick), who spent a full year less than them in the minors.

    Where exactly is the evidence more time in the minors = quick transition into effective NHL player?

    We know that young players, and especially young D, struggle when they first reach the NHL. We know that the length of time that they struggle varies from player, and as far as I can tell, regardless of how long they spent in the minors.

    It seems to me that if we are going to be comparing Schultz to anything, it should be to other D with 1.5 years of NHL experience, not to other D who are the same age as him. And even then we should be damn carefully about drawing any conclusions about how good he’ll ultimately be based on his early struggles. There are way too many examples of players who took a little longer to figure everything out – Chara, the Sedins, Ryan Johanson, to name a few – for that to be a good idea.

  95. VanOil says:

    I wish Abbostford had not lost its AHL team. Viewing the Twin towers at Center live would have been a treat this year.

    I hope Bogdan spends time figure skating in YEG this summer not just pumping iron. Kharia could use some tap lessons as well.

  96. Factotum says:

    Guys, can you help me out with something?

    WRT the D: Back in April, MacT said

    “In my mind, I’d like to add a very high-end defenseman. I think I wouldn’t be alone with 29 other GMs in that objective. But, to me I won’t be adding anything in the middle.”

    Am I alone in thinking that neither Nikitin nor Fayne is exactly a “very high-end defenseman”? How do we square their acquisitions with MacT’s statement that he wouldn’t be adding a Dman from the middle of the road?

    If there’s a trade involving Petry for a 2/3C, do you think the plan really is to run with Nikitin/Fayne/Jultz/Ference/Aulie/Marincin/Klef, or would you expect that MacT has something in the works to bring in a 1/2 D from somewhere?

    Is there enough cap space for Jultz, a 2/3C, and a 1/2D?

    I guess that’s actually quite a few somethings…

  97. rickithebear says:

    Wg:
    based on your point of Goalie.:
    I realized i was looking at the shot chart with Dman and goalie sets.
    Coosing goalies without considering the quality of save%
    I must now state the box protection as a Dman/ Goalie combo.
    the Goalie is part of the box protection set.

    Scrivens as the 4th best inside 25ft goalie was a great add.

    which leads to simple question when looking at Dman/ Golaie combo’s
    we see repetitive pattern re box protection from the D.

    the question then becomes is the new goalie better or worse.
    Consistent or inconsitent.
    Bishop; lunquist; Reimer; Scrivens good.

    Nikitin/Fayne will likely be getting better inside 25ft goal tending.
    Ference-Petry 2.21 EVGA/60 1st comp with dubnyk (27%) will.
    Aulie will not

    Aulie 10-11 12-13
    top 5 box protection numbers
    facing 1st comp
    Phanuef/reimer 1.88 EVGA/60
    Brewer/bishop 1.46 EVGA/60
    that is Keith Aulie facing 1st comp with scriven like save% inside 25 ft.
    F….. Me!
    He could be Even Chara!

    please get J. schultz the f……… away from our team.

  98. Lowetide says:

    Factotum:
    Guys, can you help me out with something?

    WRT the D:Back in April, MacT said

    “In my mind, I’d like to add a very high-end defenseman. I think I wouldn’t be alone with 29 other GMs in that objective. But, to me I won’t be adding anything in the middle.”

    Am I alone in thinking that neither Nikitin nor Fayne is exactly a “very high-end defenseman”?How do we square their acquisitions with MacT’s statement that he wouldn’t be adding a Dman from the middle of the road?

    If there’s a trade involving Petry for a 2/3C, do you think the plan really is to run with Nikitin/Fayne/Jultz/Ference/Aulie/Marincin/Klef, or would you expect that MacT has something in the works to bring in a 1/2 D from somewhere?

    Is there enough cap space for Jultz, a 2/3C, and a 1/2D?

    I guess that’s actually quite a few somethings…

    It wasn’t there. Fayne is a really good player, Nikitin is a saw him good with some nice remnants in his past. I like the current blue

  99. FastOil says:

    Marc: The big problem with Jonathan’s piece can be found in the fifth paragraph:
    “Additionally, Schultz had an advantage of a long and slow development path. Before turning pro, he played his draft year and post-draft year in the BCHL and followed that up with three years of college hockey. By the time he entered the professional ranks, he was already 22 years of age.”

    He assumes that it has somehow been advantageous to Schultz to have spent four years in Junior A/college before turning pro. I have never see the truth of that statement demonstrated anywhere – if anyone is aware of any work on this, I’d be grateful if you could point me towards it.

    It seems to be an article of faith to a lot of people that more time in the minors = better for a prospect’s development. The Detroit model etc etc. But how sure are we that it’s really true?There are certainly a plenty of examples of players who started in the NHL before they were ready, and it seemed to harm their development – Brule, Lander, Neidereiter – enough that a hypothesis that promotion to the NHL too soon delays (if not fatally undermines) their development into an effective NHL player, seems plausible.

    It does not necessarily follow though that the reverse of this – spending more time in the minors speeds up a player’s development into an effective NHL player – is true. If it were true, you should be able to discern some sort of pattern whereby those players who spend lots of time in the minors become effective NHL players more quickly than those who don’t.The Oilers are the only team I follow, but it sure is hard to see such a pattern there.

    Grebeshkov and Smid were both mid-first round picks. Grebeshkov spent more than twice as long in the minors (AHL and Russia) so he should have become an effective NHL player much more quickly than Smid.Except he didn’t. Petry and Schultz (both second round picks) spent almost the exact same amount of time in the minors (Jr A/college/AHL). Petry adjusted to the NHL level much more quickly than Schultz, but neither of them adjusted nearly as quickly as Marincin (another second round pick), who spent a full year less than them in the minors.

    Where exactly is the evidence more time in the minors = quick transition into effective NHL player?

    We know that young players, and especially young D, struggle when they first reach the NHL.We know that the length of time that they struggle varies from player, and as far as I can tell, regardless of how long they spent in the minors.

    It seems to me that if we are going to be comparing Schultz to anything, it should be to other D with 1.5 years of NHL experience, not to other D who are the same age as him.And even then we should be damn carefully about drawing any conclusions about how good he’ll ultimately be based on his early struggles.There are way too many examples of players who took a little longer to figure everything out – Chara, the Sedins, Ryan Johanson, to name a few – for that to be a good idea.

    I think young players need time to iron the kinks out, and that process is not the same thing as having no defensive acumen. I think it is very possible Schultz is Gagner on D. He isn’t missing an assignment a couple of times a game when things get hairy, he’s not in the play, a lot.

    I agree with Willis’ point. If the GM can control himself and properly evaluate the player, and you can replace the player for free in free agency and get what you need because of another GM’s mancrush on Schultz, those are good hockey deals that make your team better and good GM’s that create good teams do.

    The Oilers with another quality centre and no Schultz are a better team than with Schultz and no centre. Petry has a far more rounded game so losing him hurts and creates a hole Scultz can’t fill.

    If Draisy is awesome in three years you either remain with three good centres (assuming Gordon fades) or 4 and you have another blue chip to trade.

  100. rickithebear says:

    But we need size to face the West gauntlet.

    Yakimov 6’5″ 222lb 59% FO%
    one of the best goal production season s last 15 years in russia.

    Semin
    ,21 GPG

    Ovechkin
    .23 GPG

    Malkin
    .24 GPG

    Kuznetsov
    .37 GPG
    1.60 G/60
    5PPG/9EVG/3SHG

    Tarasenko
    .21 GPG
    0.88 G/60
    2PPG/ 7EVG

    Slepyshev
    21 GPG
    1.00 G/60
    7EVG

    Yakupov
    .41 GPG
    1.70G/60
    3PPG/6EVG

    Yakimov
    .21 GPG
    1.27G/60
    1PPG/6EVG

    19 to start this year.
    Get Stronger and Faster young Man!

  101. rickithebear says:

    FastOil: I agree with Willis’ point. If the GM can control himself and properly evaluate the player, and you can replace the player for free in free agency and get what you need because of another GM’s mancrush on Schultz, those are good hockey deals that make your team better and good GM’s that create good teams do.
    The Oilers with another quality centre and no Schultz are a better team than with Schultz and no centre. Petry has a far more rounded game so losing him hurts and creates a hole Scultz can’t fill.

    there it is!

  102. rickithebear says:

    Factotum: Am I alone in thinking that neither Nikitin nor Fayne is exactly a “very high-end defenseman”? How do we square their acquisitions with MacT’s statement that he wouldn’t be adding a Dman from the middle of the road?

    box protection and Puck movement!

  103. Factotum says:

    Lowetide: It wasn’t there.

    It wasn’t there among the UFA crop, sure, but we pretty much already knew that in April, no?

    Not saying I don’t like Nikitin and Fayne; I like them plenty, but don’t see them as top pairing candidates on a playoff team. Would love to be proven wrong. Just weary of seeing players thrust into roles that exceed their ability, I guess.

  104. justDOit says:

    FastOil,

    Draisy, Draisy, give me your answer, do…

  105. Marc says:

    FastOil: I think young players need time to iron the kinks out, and that process is not the same thing as having no defensive acumen. I think it is very possible Schultz is Gagner on D. He isn’t missing an assignment a couple of times a game when things get hairy, he’s not in the play, a lot.

    I agree with Willis’ point. If the GM can control himself and properly evaluate the player, and you can replace the player for free in free agency and get what you need because of another GM’s mancrush on Schultz, those are good hockey deals that make your team better and good GM’s that create good teams do.

    The Oilers with another quality centre and no Schultz are a better team than with Schultz and no centre. Petry has a far more rounded game so losing him hurts and creates a hole Scultz can’t fill.

    If Draisy is awesome in three years you either remain with three good centres (assuming Gordon fades) or 4 and you have another blue chip to trade.

    Would you really have been willing to write off Gagner as unsalvageable half way through his second season though?

    Because that’s what you’re doing with Schultz if you decide 130 games into his NHL career that you’re better off cutting your losses.

  106. VanOil says:

    In thinking of the riches down in the Farm I am drawn to LT’s wise lament “We Wait”

    Which I now know comes from the Inuit “Iktsuarpok”

    https://m1.behance.net/rendition/modules/109605621/disp/d0da013b06935a00230ab01c655894c2.jpg

  107. Lynas1 says:

    Lowetide: I think people have taken MacT’s words about three scoring lines and adopted “he must” toward an additional C. I agree he’ll add someone, but am convinced we’ll see Zack Smith more than Brayden Schenn.
    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Draisaitl-Pouliot-Perron
    Smith-Yakupov-Purcell
    Gordon-Hendricks-Pitlick

    I can live with that forward roster for next year.

  108. Broiler says:

    Missed on the defence chart is Ludwig and Craig signed to AHL contract, both may start in the ECHL, but could effect the playing time of other prospects.

  109. bendelson says:

    Factotum: I guess that’s actually quite a few somethings…

    You pochemuchka you.

  110. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    G Money said this a few days ago, I thought we addressed the 2C at the draft?

    Are we trading a D for a stop gap 2 C?

  111. spoilers says:

    I do not post often (or ever) but I have been pretty bored today and figure after a year of reading LT I should give posting a whirl.

    First off another thanks to LT for keeping me interested and less depressed about the burning pile of garbage we call the Oilers.

    I have been following all this discussion about the trading for or signing a 2C. I recognize the 2015 draft is deep and all non-playoff teams are lottery teams with a shot at McDavid but is it not time to stop obsessing about what could be, ie. another wonderkid to save the franchise. To me the 2015 1st round is the only real trade chip the Oilers can use to obtain a real 2C without blowing a hole in the D. I realize that this would be a huge risk, expecting the Oilers to become a playoff team after finishing 3rd last is extremely optimistic, but if MacT is serious about making the playoffs this is the only play.

  112. FastOil says:

    Marc: Would you really have been willing to write off Gagner as unsalvageablehalf way through his second season though?

    Because that’s what you’re doing with Schultz if you decide 130 games into his NHL career that you’re better off cutting your losses.

    I am not sure about Schultz. I do think that players by ~22 are pretty much what they are. When we talk about development I don’t think it’s learning how to play, it’s getting enough experience to compete in the best league, the tricks and do’s and don’ts. Gagner never engaged defensively, and it was apparent right away. He was very young and kept getting a pass year after year.

    But he never improved which is what I think the true good players do consistently. He also didn’t score enough to be an offensive specialist. Schultz has probably never been asked to play defensively, and even in the AHL could just rag the puck at will and scored so much what could anyone say?

    He can’t do it in the NHL. We know that already. He also isn’t scoring enough to cover the bet as anything but a third pairing specialist. We also know he is not Erik Karlsson who is the same age. I am not saying he isn’t good or that they should trade him, but how much is he going to change at this point?

    My guess is he maxes out as offensively gifted and moves up from complete defensive liability to competent. If he had more we’d be able to see it now with rough edges maybe. It’s not there that I can see, like with Gagner. I don’t think either have the interest.

    I think I’d sign the equivalent free agent of which there are 2 according to Willis and go shopping for a C. It’s risky but that’s part of the process. None of the best teams get that good without those decisions made well. In only drafting it takes so long that you don’t get a cluster. If they stand pat and it takes three more years, Hall will be 26. That means only a couple of years left in his peak. Eberle will be 27. If they even want to stick around. Ovechkin is going to be only 29 and his 5v5 scoring ain’t what it used to be.

  113. commonfan14 says:

    Woodguy: Picking games is really tough

    And let’s hope it stays that way, considering it’s the only reason people watch.

    A question for those who’ve been around since the beginnings of the fancy stats: is it right that a big chunk or even most of them were developed as the serious tools they are today by people in the Oilogosphere? (I know PDO was, for example, and my sense is that Corsi really took off there after being initially developed by its namesake)

    If true, it’s a damn shame the pioneers didn’t keep it to themselves and build everything up into a package they could sell exclusively to the Oilers. Would have made for quite the tactical advantage.

  114. bendelson says:

    denny33: Are we trading a D for a stop gap 2 C?

    I believe the idea is to trade for the stop gap 2C that eventually becomes a solid 3C, slowing the need for Leon to produce at a high level as a teenager, provide a little protection should an injury to RNH or Gordon occur this season, and possibly move Gordon down to the 4th line shut-down role that has been discussed.

    I however, believe it should come from the depth at wing – Perron as leading candidate.

    Spoilers thoughts on the 2015 1st are also intriguing. Given the recent comments out of CLB, what does Jarmo give up to get the 2015 1st from Edmonton? Anisimov ++? More?

    2015 1st > Perron > Petry

  115. Hammers says:

    Some optimism is required if we all want success . So far McT has retooled 75% of this team and in about 16 months . Has he made a few mistakes ? Probably but yes .Has he gone about adding actual NHL players ? Yes . Has he added to the depth pool either for the oil or Barons ? Yes Nurse & Leon to start and they will also be NHL players .Are we seeing a culture change ? Yes just in sending Nurse back . Has he changed the Barons to a development team rather than win at all costs ? Yes again . We presently have Petry , Eberle, Hall, RNH , Marincin ,Yak ,Klefbom , ,Schultz , Nurse & now Leon. THAT’S 10 young players. Traded for Perron , Scrivens , Fasht ,Hendricks ,Nitkinin , Purcell .That’s 6 . UFA’s Gordon , Joensuu ,Ference , Pouliot ,Fayne ,Aulie ,Another 6. Half this team is under 24 and just over the other half are seasoned NHL players most of them under 29-30 . Plus Lander , Arco & Pitlick waiting ? I’m more than happy with what McT is doing .

  116. Henry says:

    bendelson: I believe the idea is to trade for the stop gap 2C that eventually becomes a solid 3C, slowing the need for Leon to produce at a high level as a teenager, provide a little protection should an injury to RNH or Gordon occur this season, and possibly move Gordon down to the 4th line shut-down role that has been discussed.

    I however, believe it should come from the depth at wing – Perron as leading candidate.

    Spoilers thoughts on the 2015 1st are also intriguing.Given the recent comments out of CLB, what does Jarmo give up to get the 2015 1st from Edmonton?Anisimov ++?More?

    2015 1st > Perron > Petry

    Doug Wilson appears to be serious about a rebuild of sorts. If he tells MacT that he can have 34 year old Joe Thornton for 3 years for next year’s shot at McDavid, should MacT do it?

  117. VanOil says:

    The WG v. Ricki debate is interesting. I thank both for the years of time they put into it.

    Many of us feel Corsi is not a great evaluating for Defense men. (Corsi Rel is growing on me as the best tool)

    Ricki’s use of ONSV% while intuitive is demonstrably wrong.

    Ricki’s insistence on ‘Box Protection’ being an important skill is correct. As the early Eakins box abandonment swarm proved. I have not seen demonstrable proof that the shot distance metrics Ricki uses accurately measure this skill.

    I think defensemen can be evaluated on three main zone skills; positioning in there own zone ‘box protection’, puck movement (zone entries/exits) or whatever ‘midfield stat’ Dellow is working toward and Possession. Possessing the puck in the opposing teams end of the ice is the best form of defense if you wish to win hockey games. This includes Karlson like skills of taking the puck to the offensive zone and then dangling around the zones for ages when you get there. Plus the good old skill of holding the line, Belov being the only Oiler capable of this last year. From this we know the following and it is not nearly enough;

    Box protection or Breaking the Cycle (D-zone coverage) is important. But Fraser ‘clearing the box’ is a useless as Schultz ‘abandoning the box’ if the puck does not subsequently leave the zone. Shot distance does not conclusively measure this skill. This is the most overrated skill in the NHL. If this is your only skill as a defensemen you do not help your team win hockey games, GM’s have yet to figure this out.

    Puck movement is very important. Making good exit passes or carrying the puck out is an identifiable skill. It is still imperfectly measured league wide, the CofH zone entries/exits were a noble step in this direction. The under rated and woefully measured skill in this area is the neutral zone breakup/steal. Simply forcing the other team to dump the puck into your zone and not carry it in will help win hockey games. Because your team will likely gain Possession. Dump and chase is as dead as a successful hockey tactic as Don Cherry’s career as a relevant hockey commentator.

    Which bring us of course to Possession. Specifically possession in the offensive zone. This zone time is great defense, think Sedin cycling, Hemsky skate around, Crosby clinics by forwards. Corgi’s measure this well but not perfectly. A skill/flaw specifically with defenders in offensive zone time is holding the line. This is a wisdom play but also a team/D partner thing. PK Subban can abandon the line when Markov backs him up with great success. Schultz couldn’t hold the line for love nor money as the sole defender on the Oilers PP last year, resulting in crazy short handed attempts against. I am not sure if there is any stat that measures ‘holding the line’. I am sure Schultz either has to get wiser at this or the Oilers PP needs to be organized better. Both would be nice.

    In short (after a way to long ramble) CorsiRel is probably the best measure of the 3 defender zone skills but is far from perfect. A defender that can only play in the defensive zone is over rated (Fraser) because shots against tell us so. A defender that is very good in the neutral zone (Petry) is under rated because we don’t measure this well, yet. A defender that is very good in Offensive zone and not much else is likely over paid (Schultz) because box cars baby.

  118. VanOil says:

    bendelson: You pochemuchka you.

    Well played.

  119. Mr DeBakey says:

    OilClog: Moving Petry isn’t ideal, yet the Oilers have too many high end prospects on the back end trying to smash the door down, with bare few prime minutes to split between themselves. There’s a giant log jam with a big ugly hole up the middle.

    The pipeline features LHD, Petry s a RHD. [And probably still the best D on the roster]

    denny33:
    Woodguy,

    G Money said this a few days ago, I thought we addressed the 2C at the draft?

    Are we trading a D for a stop gap 2 C?

    I hope no one thinks an 18-year-old kid is going to solve any of the Oilers’ roster problems.
    The thought process should be to use Draisaitl to replace Arcobello in a couple of years.

  120. jfry says:

    around here we always celebrate the teams that pick up the late summer free agent d or forward. last year we talked in glowing terms about the gilbert and hainsey signing.

    so, assuming there might be a gilbert quality dman out there for the cheap, why don’t we explore trading petry and a second for a C? using an asset to get something we need (the centre depth is horrible) and then signing something for free.

    Is there a 1-2 year solution here that can play top 4 and allow us to gain centre depth?

    Defence available: Sami Salo, Henrik Tallinder, Cory Sarich, Jamie McBain, Derek Morris, Chris Butler, Raphael Diaz, Anton Volchenkov, Paul Ranger, Brett Bellemore, Michael Del Zotto

  121. bendelson says:

    Henry: Doug Wilson appears to be serious about a rebuild of sorts. If he tells MacT that he can have 34 year old Joe Thornton for 3 years for next year’s shot at McDavid, should MacT do it?

    I would recommend MacT say “no thank you Doug, but I do appreciate the phone call”.

    Not because I know what I’m talking about, but because I like to pretend I know what I’m talking about…

    … and being courteous and thoughtful has always been my preferred approach to life (yeah, pretending again)

    Thank you for the question Henry.

  122. Lowetide says:

    jfry:
    around here we always celebrate the teams that pick up the late summer free agent d or forward. last year we talked in glowing terms about the gilbert and hainsey signing.

    so, assuming there might be a gilbert quality dman out there for the cheap, why don’t we explore trading petry and a second for a C? using an asset to get something we need (the centre depth is horrible) and then signing something for free.

    Is there a 1-2 year solution here that can play top 4 and allow us to gain centre depth?

    Defence available: Sami Salo, Henrik Tallinder, Cory Sarich, Jamie McBain, Derek Morris, Chris Butler, Raphael Diaz, Anton Volchenkov, Paul Ranger, Brett Bellemore, Michael Del Zotto

    Yep. And MacT dealt for Perron right around this time. I’m hopeful he leaves the D alone though. I’d rather they traded a winger and then move Pouliot up to 2line.

  123. lance says:

    Two algorithms defined by me exusively by way of self appointment:

    Algorithm WG (herein called WG) uses Corsi and Fenwick, or ‘standard’ advanced stars.
    I’m going to assign units of +/- from the 50% mark. Standard deviations easily applied.

    Algorithm RTB includes shot metric and is ready to incorporate shot velocity.
    Units are ordinal league wide rank. (1st, 2nd, …)

    Condition #1: shot distance stats are available.

    By definition WG does not include shot distance, RTB does.

    Condition 2:
    Shot distance and shot velocity are available.

    WG would have to include shot distance before shot velocity because velocity without location means nothing.

    Is RTB a suitable measure of a Dman? My answer? No.
    Is WG a suitable measure of a dman? My answer? No.
    Is WG currently a better proxy? Probably.

    Is algorithm RTB more able to include information gleaned from GPS puck and player markers? Probably.

    Sports analytics get better results when better proxies for performance are developed. For me, that what this math and hockey thing is really about. I think Ricki wants to build better algorithms. Wood guy wants to maximize the ones he’s got.

  124. jfry says:

    Lowetide,

    there goes LT, sending yakupov out of town ;)

  125. Jasmine says:

    spoiler: The only thing I really see possible is Purcell and a pick for an overpaid C from a capstrung team.But I seriously doubt it. Arco is going to get his shot, and likely the Dry Sidler too.

    Why trade a player the Oilers just got. Are you trying to run another player out of town prior to player playing a single game with the Oilers. Good grief, Oilers fans have a habit of running players out of town.

  126. Jasmine says:

    spoiler:
    Maybe they pick up Ribeiro in-season after he’s been through whatever 12 steps he has to go through… but that would mean risking the room, they would have to be pretty desperate.

    Stay away from Riberio. Don’t touch him with a 20-foot pole

  127. Lowetide says:

    jfry:
    Lowetide,

    there goes LT, sending yakupov out of town ;)

    NOOOOOOOOOO

  128. bendelson says:

    Jasmine: Stay away from Riberio. Don’t touch him with a 20-foot pole

    Why are you trying to run a player out of town before he even becomes an Oiler? Can’t you wait until he signs before we run him out of town?
    Good grief.

    (I agree by the way)

  129. lance says:

    okay. more on that. (From the tower rather than the phone)

    // spitball attempt v1

    algorithm WG {
    // all units in +/- from 50% league average
    RelCor (.5) + EVGA (.3) + PPTOI (.1) + Own zone starts (.1)}
    print “player ranking:” (WG)

    algorithm RTB {
    // all units in 1 – 690, 1= good, 690 = bad
    [shot distance + shot velocity + EVTOI + (takeaways – giveaways)} /5
    print “player ranking:” (RTB)

    /end bad syntax based on weak knowledge of modern programming languages

  130. lance says:

    A proxy for shot quality could be:

    SQ= (.3) x (shot distance average – shot distance) + (.2) x (lateral goalie movement at time of release) + (.3) x (% of net covered by players at time of release) + (.2) x (% probability of goals at location on net (Ricki’s 5 hole/7hole thing here))

    I gotta go and be a worker bee.

    And I’m just making these up as I go.

    Woodguy, Ricki, and others, if you could write your own formula to include the variables you regard and the relative weight on each variable, I’d love to see what you regard as important, and how important.

    Also, if you could add any variable you wanted, and the league magically started tracking the necessary information, what variables would those be?

    50% of everything I write is correct. I have no idea which half is which.

    A little help?

  131. p2e2l says:

    LT, this question is completely out of context here, but could you or someone explain the Gagner deal for me. Edmonton gets Purcell – maybe an upgrade, no one is bought out. Tampa turns around and buys out Gagner and ships him, along with Crombeen, to Phoenix for a 6th round draft pick. Edmonton gets a legitimate player and Tampa pays real $ to buy out Gagner and essentially nothing in return. What’s in this deal for Tampa? Is this Tampa’s way of buying out Purcell and doing MacT a favor? Surely a bought out Gagner would have been a good deal for Edmonton to take back in exchange for a 6th?
    Sorry if this has already been addressed and fully explained.

  132. Lowetide says:

    p2e2l:
    LT, this question is completely out of context here, but could you or someone explain the Gagner deal for me. Edmonton gets Purcell – maybe an upgrade, no one is bought out. Tampa turns around and buys out Gagner and ships him, along with Crombeen, to Phoenix for a 6th round draft pick. Edmonton gets a legitimate player and Tampa pays real $ to buy out Gagner and essentially nothing in return. What’s in this deal for Tampa? Is this Tampa’s way of buying out Purcell and doing MacT a favor? Surely a bought out Gagnerwould have been a good deal for Edmonton to take back in exchange for a 6th?
    Sorry if this has already been addressed and fully explained.

    Scroll down to Mr. Debakey and Spoiler.

  133. Mr DeBakey says:

    p2e2l: Surely a bought out Gagner would have been a good deal for Edmonton to take back in exchange for a 6th?

    Gagner wasn’t bought out

    This deal was very similar to the O’Sullivan – Vandemeer trade between the Oilers and Phoenix.

    Its twice as expenive to buy-out an old guy as a young guy.
    In both cases the other team was going to buy-out an older guy [Vandermeer, Purcell]
    The Oilers traded them a younger guy whom they [the Oilers] didn’t want in exchange for the older guy – and kept the older guy.
    Phoenix bought out O’Sullivan.
    Tampa was to buy out Gagner, but Phoenix stepped in and took him instead.

    Vandermeer brought grit.

  134. spoiler says:

    p2e2l:
    LT, this question is completely out of context here, but could you or someone explain the Gagner deal for me. Edmonton gets Purcell – maybe an upgrade, no one is bought out. Tampa turns around and buys out Gagner and ships him, along with Crombeen, to Phoenix for a 6th round draft pick. Edmonton gets a legitimate player and Tampa pays real $ to buy out Gagner and essentially nothing in return. What’s in this deal for Tampa? Is this Tampa’s way of buying out Purcell and doing MacT a favor? Surely a bought out Gagnerwould have been a good deal for Edmonton to take back in exchange for a 6th?
    Sorry if this has already been addressed and fully explained.

    Tampa was going to buy out Purcell. Gagner was a cheaper buyout due to his age (1/3 salary as opposed to 2/3 salary for Purcell). Edmonton wanted Purcell and TBL wanted to save real $s.

    Phoenix had also wanted Gagner, and since TBL was going to buy him out anyways, traded for Gagner and got TBL to absorb the same portion of his cap hit the buy out would have cost. TBL gets the advantage of the hit coming off the books faster because there’s no actual buy out. He’s off their books now as soon as the contract expires. In return for that advantage, Phoenix squeezed Crombeen out of them in return for the 6th.

  135. spoiler says:

    Mr DeBakey: Vandermeer brought grit.

    Well, that and the assist on Jordan Eberle’s most famous NHL goal, lol.

  136. justDOit says:

    Markstrom has requested a trade out of Lotusland. Is it just me, or was the Miller signing stupendously horrific?

    http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/533580

  137. Lowetide says:

    Spoiler explained it perfectly.

  138. Factotum Pochemuchka says:

    bendelson: You pochemuchka you.

    Beauty. I am inspired to change my name.

  139. RexLibris says:

    justDOit:
    Markstrom has requested a trade out of Lotusland. Is it just me, or was the Miller signing stupendously horrific?

    http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/533580

    Now hold on a second.

    Vancouver is one of the prime destinations in the NHL, and Markstrom shares nationality with the Sedins, and Benning is a smart man who is going to rebuild the Canucks in short order without doing the nosedive/basement-trawling that the Oilers have done for the last eight years, so therefore something is amiss.

    All those narratives we know to be self-evident truths, therefore the report of his trade request must be incorrect.

  140. RexLibris says:

    I looked over the BTN site on the Sens and ranking the team by Corsi Rel QoC and Corsi Rel QoT (with the assumption that the coach would deploy his lines in a traditional manner) the way it looks to me is that Smith took on the 2nd hardest competition for C behind Turris, and was given some of the weaker teammates to play with.

    ES has his most common linemates for last season as Chris Neil and Colin Greening and Chris Philips and Mark Methot as his most common D partners.

    He would appear to have been deployed as a shutdown C (no surprise there) and is reasonably capable of performing that duty, albeit one with higher PIMs than I’d prefer for a shutdown/PK player.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=11&s=15&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f5=OTT&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+11+12+13+14+15+16#

    http://www.extraskater.com/player/63/zack-smith#usage

    Depends on the asking price, but I can’t see much upside here aside from reinforcing Gordon down the middle. More offense than Lander, but that may be partially due to age and opportunity.

  141. p2e2l says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks LT et al.

  142. "Steve Smith" says:

    commonfan14: If true, it’s a damn shame the pioneers didn’t keep it to themselves and build everything up into a package they could sell exclusively to the Oilers.Would have made for quite the tactical advantage.

    What makes you think that the Oilers would have been buying?

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