PERRON TRADE, ONE YEAR LATER

It was a year ago tomorrow. Craig MacTavish was mere months into his career as an NHL GM, and had perhaps over-promised and under-delivered to that point in the summer. The Oilers made a significant trade with the St. Louis Blues, giving Edmonton a bona fida scoring winger and St. Louis a nice slice of the future.

perron trade oilersIn year one, the only year we can look at, the trade looks very good for Edmonton. David Perron enjoyed a solid year, finishing in a tie for 26th overall in goals by an NHL player and posting nice numbers across the board.

DAVID PERRON 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.96 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.71 (5th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards (top line opp)
  • Qual Team: 11th best teammates among regular forwards (4line linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 6.9 (best among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 45.7
  • Corsi for % Rel 5×5: +2.5
  • Zone Start: 48.9% (7th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 45.7% (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 220/12.7% (2nd among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 78, 28-29-57

That’s a very nice season (Source: BTN and Extra Skater). I’m not sure about qual/team, he played most with Gagner but also quite a bit with Hall and Nuge (that’s a nice neighborhood). He was above 50% Corsi for with Arco and Ryan Smyth, which I found interesting, and with Mark Fraser, which is something else again. He’s signed for two more years at reasonable money, this was a nice acquisition.

paajarvi1Magnus Paajarvi had a nice season in the possession stats, but like his countryman Anton Lander the offense appears to be the barrier to a long NHL career. I still think he’s going to be a brilliant Pisani, and he should eventually find his way as an offensive player, but these years are difficult for young Magnus. I spoke to his Dad on SSE a few weeks ago, and he said MPS was upset initially at the trade but adjusted well to the situation in St. Louis and made his way there. I think the Blues did themselves no favors by bringing in Brenden Morrow and not running the young Swede all year long. By spring, he would have been a better player, and I suspect that’s exactly what the Blues will do in 2014-15.

barbashevThe second-round pick was a dagger. I can’t believe no one drafted Ivan Barbashev before No. 33 overall! I had him No. 12 on my final list, after having a difficult time sussing out the difference between Pastrnak, Vrana and Kempe (this happens to me every year. Takes time to figure these things out). His NHLE is 82GP, 12-21-33 and Red Line loves him:

  • One of the most complete players in the draft plays a responsible two-way game. Above average in every facet with no obvious weakness. Makes hard, accurate passes. Uses linemates well but is also an excellent goal scorer. Plays with a lot of fire and emotion.

This is a very nice prospect. Damn.

 

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121 Responses to "PERRON TRADE, ONE YEAR LATER"

  1. coolwasabi says:

    Great trade. Perhaps the best since the Pronger trade (yes, I checked our history and couldn’t find any better trades since then… except the 2006 rentals of Spacek, Roloson, and Samsonov).

  2. nycoil says:

    The 2nd rounder being #33 and Barbashev falling that far was a machete, even worse than a dagger. I love Perron and like the trade so far, but this could really hurt if Perron leaves in 2 years. That Pouliot deal ensures Perron’s next deal is going to be north of $5M AAV. Meanwhile St Louis may have Paajarvi and Barbashev for many years going forward.

    I think your 5 year rule for draft picks applies here as well. Let’s see where we are in 4, 5 years on this one.

  3. Rondo says:

    David Perron has helped a bad team, but he is not a 2 way player. He does not drive the bus

  4. bendelson says:

    No doubt the trade has worked out to date… very nice player.

    How the move looks long-term depends largely on what they get for Perron when they eventually trade him in the next couple of years (or sign him long-term I suppose – if that makes anyone feel better).

  5. Logan91 says:

    Rondo:
    David Perron has helped a bad team, but he is not a 2 way player.He does not drive the bus

    He drove the bus plenty of games last season.

  6. John Chambers says:

    For the Oilers the question is (or should be): would you rather trade Perron or Petry for a two-way 2nd line C?

    We’ve been short on guys who can play top pair minutes on the blue, and short Corsi demons who can score 25+ goals. Now that we added NHL-quality depth to both positions on July 1st, one will likely have to be sacrificed to fill that gaping hole in the middle.

    Why, why couldn’t they get that 2-year deal for Legwand? Whyyyyyy (cries like Nancy Kerrigan).

  7. Melman says:

    John Chambers,

    ’cause maybe he didn’t want to come to Edm… 1 more C would obviously be very nice, but there is value to keeping your powder dry and being able to move on a better opportunity. Not sure any of us know how much better Legwand would have been next year playing on a fast skating team vs. Arco.

  8. nycoil says:

    John Chambers,

    Petry on a 1-year deal before UFA is not worth anything near a 2C, unfortunately. Had he been locked up to a reasonable longer term deal, that would be one thing, but one year before he walks he’s worth very little.

  9. Woodguy says:

    I like Perron a lot.

    He started taking more low percentage shots later in the year instead of passing to more open options, but the cat almost scored 30 so its a mild bitch.

    Oilers needed more scoring and there is no question that he added more than PVR would have and I’m a big PRV fan.

  10. Woodguy says:

    Speaking of scoring…..

    It looks like the Oilers are trying to follow the CHI model and get three scoring lines and a tough zone start line.

    Which other teams also look like they are building that way for this coming year?

    NHL is a copycat league and I wonder how many teams are copying CHI?

    Thoughts?

  11. Hammers says:

    Great trade but as I said last year only for maybe 2 years . Now the other shoe dropped with Barbashev going to St Louis so we really lost it this year even if Perron has another great year .The real problem is this kind of trade is what’s needed when your pushing for a playoff run or at least are in the playoffs . I guess I partly understand what McT is trying to do and that’s make this team respectable but we still aren’t there . The truth is we still need a 2nd line “C” plus another # 2 or 3 “D” if we expect this team to be pushing for a playoff spot and with a defense by committee ala Vancouver but he is again getting closer . Still has a chance this year but next years #1 has to be in play .

  12. PDO says:

    MacT has already won more trades than Tambo ever did.

    Unfortunate that St. Louis got they kid they got, but that’s the way it goes. Perron can be a long-term answer on this team and having him and Hall (and now Pouliot) as three deep in the top 9 is a huge strength for the team. That might actually be the best LW in the NHL.

    Think about that. Best set of LW’s in the league. Don’t screw with that and deal Perron away, use it as a strength.

    Reports that Johnny Oduya is available. A quick look at his WOWY’s aren’t pretty. I think he’s the opposite of Petry, in that because he’s on such a good team he looks a lot better than he really is. If the cost is cheap (5th round pick), then sure, why not… otherwise, zero interest in giving away something useful for a one year rental of an average LH D.

  13. Woodguy says:

    I’m going to give it some thought and look at the other team’s rosters later (going to Cavalia)

    Genuinely interested in everyone’s take on it.

  14. Ryan says:

    Well the basic problem with this trade is that it looks like a no-brainer since Perron >> PRV… but we’ve really traded for 3 years of Perron of which 1 year was wasted in the basement and next year even Stauffer is predicting the Oilers to be in 20-24th place.

    Why trade futures for now if the now doesn’t involve the second season?

    When Perron has 1 year left on his contract and we either do the inevitable trade for a picks or extend him at a gross overpay, this deal will look less favorable.

  15. steveb12344 says:

    Woodguy:
    I like Perron a lot.

    He started taking more low percentage shots later in the year instead of passing to more open options, but the cat almost scored 30 so its a mild bitch.

    Maybe he was attempting to improve his Corsi rating.

  16. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: He started taking more low percentage shots later in the year instead of passing to more open options, but the cat almost scored 30 so its a mild bitch.

    He got a couple of goals on sharp angle shots and developed a taste for it. I think it’s just a glitch.

  17. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Speaking of scoring…..

    It looks like the Oilers are trying to follow the CHI model and get three scoring lines and a tough zone start line.

    Which other teams also look like they are building that way for this coming year?

    NHL is a copycat league and I wonder how many teams are copying CHI?

    Thoughts?

    Well this must be vindicating for you since you’ve been banging on this drum for awhile.

    When I heard Mact speak to this, I felt happy not only for me, the Oilers, but also you!

  18. Ryan says:

    theres oil in virginia: He got a couple of goals on sharp angle shots and developed a taste for it.I think it’s just a glitch.

    Peron discussed Corsi with the venerable MC79 on twitter last season if you missed it.

  19. nycoil says:

    Woodguy,

    Ben Smith vs. Luke Gazdic? Just thinking in terms of the tough zone start line where things may go awry.

  20. PDO says:

    Woodguy: Wood

    I think there’s certainly a few teams out there doing it…

    For context, lets throw up Chicago’s projected forwards:

    Saad – Toews – Hossa
    Sharp – Richards – Kane
    Bickell – Shaw – Versteeg
    Morin – Kruger – Smith

    Your combinations may vary.

    The big difference is that there’s hockey players throughout the bottom 2 lines who have some offensive flair.

    If I wanted to look at rosters being built in a similar fashion, I’d definitely say the Oiler’s are attempting to go down that road with:

    Hall – Nuge – Eberle
    Pouliot – Arco – Yakupov
    Perron – Draisatl – Purcell
    Hendricks – Gordon – Pitlick?

    Killer top 6 with the exception of the 2C spot that has been tackled consistently. There’s two very talented wingers in Perron and Purcell (or Pouliot and Yakupov, or whoever it ends up being), and there’s a talented C as well in Draisatl. Then the tough minutes line, if they have a Pitlick instead of a Gazdic, could be a line you can really lean on.

    As much as anything, I think it’s having guys who are playing *below* where you could play them. Whoever the wingers are on our “third” line could be on most teams second, and some teams first. Gordon is better than 4th line C, and it on it goes.

    I’d take a long hard look at Dallas as the next example of this.

    Last year; their second line was Roussell, Eakin and Garbutt.

    Now, it’s their third line.

    Benn – Seguin – Hemsky
    Nichushkin – Spezza – Cole
    Roussell – Eakin – Garbutt
    Peverley – Horcoff – ???

    That gives them a great base for a 4th line that can play toughs, but the top 9 is loaded with offensive talent. I can’t imagine many teams that already had a very good second line playing behind Benn/Seguin would go out of there way to shove them into the 3 hole spot… but Nill went out and did that with Spezza and then did it again with Hemsky. I suspect they’re the most blatant example of this.

    Detroit has taken a similar step, though Stephen Weiss turning into a nightmare has slowed it up a bit… but check out their top 12:

    Zetterberg – Datsyuk – Abdelkader
    Nyquist – Weiss – Franzen
    Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco
    Miller – Helm – Anderson

    Again… a fourth line that is very capable of playing real hockey minuets, and a top 9 that is loaded with guys who can score. I’m not sure they’re nearly as good as Dallas, but you can tell they’re trying to do the same thing even if the pieces simply are not good enough.

    Don’t see a lot else jumping out at me… most teams still seem to be trying to have a third line as a shut down line and a fourth line that is a mismatch of face punchers, kids and journeymen.

  21. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    Presumably we could write off a few to start who either have their identity set or are unlikely to go this way due to management: Calgary, LA, Toronto, Washington, Philadelphia, New Jersey, Carolina, Pittsburgh (cap room & depth), Nashville, Arizona, Winnipeg, St. Louis (not so long as Hitchcock is coaching – some habits never die)

    I’d add Detroit and San Jose is there as well because I believe they are in the process of retooling, although those are two smartly-managed organizations and may do their best to duplicate success.

    The Islanders may be going for the three scoring lines as well. For all the shift show that place is off the ice, it appears that they have been deploying players with some semblance of rational thought, more than can be said of talent acquisition and asset management.

    That leaves Buffalo, Edmonton, Ottawa, Boston, Vancouver, Rangers, Minnesota, Florida, Columbus, Montreal, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Colorado, Anaheim. I might have missed someone.

    Obviously not all of these teams are going to be successful, capable, or are really even trying to (they may simply have a surplus of offensive forwards). Of the above list, the teams that, I believe, legitimately have the talent depth and desire (emphasize that last one) to create a roster designed around three scoring lines are Edmonton, Colorado, Florida (C depth up the wazoo and Tallon did it before), Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Anaheim.

    Boston is cap-strapped, Buffalo is just starting out, I have concerns over Ottawa’s management vision long-term, though the Rangers are coached by Vigneault they are still owned by MSG and are liable to blow their brains out on FAs regularly, and Montreal may get so focused on building a team to beat the big bad Bruins that they lose perspective.

    It may come down, within a few years, to Colorado, Florida and Edmonton based on the sheer volume of talent acquired and how well each organization has managed those assets in the interim.

    The other two appear to have something of a head start down the middle, and Colorado obviously has achieved a greater degree of success thus far. I like the management group in Edmonton the best of those three, and ownership is the trump card for the Oilers. Suspect it’ll be a marathon, not a sprint.

  22. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ryan: Peron discussed Corsi with the venerable MC79 on twitter last season if you missed it.

    I missed it. I don’t twitter. I’m allergic.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Speaking of scoring…..

    It looks like the Oilers are trying to follow the CHI model and get three scoring lines and a tough zone start line.

    Which other teams also look like they are building that way for this coming year?

    NHL is a copycat league and I wonder how many teams are copying CHI?

    Thoughts?

    Oilers because MacT said so :-)

    TBay picked up Boyle, he had tough ZS’s in NYR and they’ll probably do it again (Vigneault did it in VAN).

    I think Calgary should, and maybe they will if they keep Bennett (and Monahan).

    That’s off the top, I’ll have another look later.

  24. Ryan says:

    theres oil in virginia: I missed it.I don’t twitter.I’m allergic.

    Iirc the Oilers did some advanced stats teaching 3/4 thru last season. No idea how but Perron started asking Corsi questions to MC79 via twitter.

    Perron pointed out some team effects and Mc79 responded to his questions.

    That’s all I can recall.

  25. Ryan says:

    Ryan: Iirc the Oilers did some advanced stats teaching 3/4 thru last season.No idea how but Perron started asking Corsi questions to MC79 via twitter.

    Perron pointed out some team effects and Mc79 responded to his questions.

    That’s all I can recall.

    Oh and Mc HELPED HIM by telling him that he was a plus Corsi player thru his career or something. Somewhere in all that Hall asked about how Corsi was actionable.

    The rest fades to all the red wine I drink.

  26. rickithebear says:

    12-13 season a 77PT team.
    lines by centre time with wings.

    HALL-RNH-EBERLE
    MP-Gagner-Hemsky
    Jones-Horc-YAKUPOV
    Smyth-Belanger-Petrell/brown

    Smid-PETRY
    N. schultz-J. SCHULTZ
    Fistric/Potter-Whitney

    Dubnyk
    NKB

    So at this point:
    Perron 28g 29A replace MP 15G 12A
    Gordon replaces Belanger
    Hendricjs 7G 7A 25% ZS replaced Browns 2G 3A
    Arco 81gm 10EVG 24 EVA replaces Gagner 11EVG 17 EVA
    Purcell 81gm 17G 36A replaces hemsky 70gm 13G 30A
    Pouliot 12EVG 17EVA replaces Smyth/jones 5 EVG 12 EVA
    Gazdic replaces SMAC/hordichuck
    Horcoff 7 EVG 11 EVA needs to be replaced
    we need a 4 LW/RW that can set up goals.

    SMid-Petry
    N. dchultz-J. schultz
    Fistric/potter-Whitney Became

    became

    Ference-Petry
    N. schultz-J. schultz
    Smid-Belov
    grebeshkov

    Dubnyk
    Labarbera

    became

    Marincin-Petry
    Ference/Belov-J. schultz
    Klefbom-Fraser
    Larsen

    Scrivens
    Bryz/Fasth

    became

    Ference-Petry
    Nikitin-Fayne
    Marincin-J. schultz
    Aulie

    Scrivens
    Fasth

  27. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ryan,

    That’s pretty neat.

    I heard rumors of the Oilers doing things like this. Seems like I remember Hall and Ebs making comments regarding Corsi as well.

  28. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Oilers because MacT said so

    I think Calgary should, and maybe they will if they keep Bennett (and Monahan).

    But will they? Down the middle they could be set with Monahan, Backlund and Bennett, not in that order. They’d need to top up with some wingers, specifically the RW, but they have the basic structure.

    A lot depends on who is coaching and who is the GM by the time the pieces are in place.

    The funny thing is, I bet Feaster would have tried it. Burke? I’ll wait and see how it plays out.

    BTW, on the draft, I had a closer look at Hunter Smith today, based on the amount of interest he is garnering at the Development camp in Calgary right now. They love him. He went from 1 pt in 30 OHL games in 12-13 (his second season in that league) to 40 pts in 64 this past year. I’ll be watching his coming season with great interest.

  29. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ryan: The rest fades to all the red wine I drink.

    Red wine is good for the brain. They said so on the news.

  30. Ryan says:

    theres oil in virginia: Red wine is good for the brain.They said so on the news.

    Just so long as I can avoid being the man who mistook his wife for a hat, we’re all good.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Rex: The Flames have an interesting team. I think they may because of the department of youth, and the fact they want those players to succeed. They also have personnel (like Smid) who could help more in that role than any other.

  32. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    Speaking of scoring…..

    It looks like the Oilers are trying to follow the CHI model and get three scoring lines and a tough zone start line.

    Which other teams also look like they are building that way for this coming year?

    NHL is a copycat league and I wonder how many teams are copying CHI?

    Thoughts?

    New York Rangers were such a team this past year. In the playoffs they mostly ran:

    Hagelin – Richards – St.Louis
    Kreider – Stepan – Nash
    Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello
    Boyle – Moore – Dorsett

    …with line 4 chewing up the d-zone minutes and the top 3 all getting their offensive looks. Vigneault buggered around with benching Richards late in the Finals, but mostly they stuck with those trios as can be readily seen in the Player Usage Chart Playoff Edition at Extra Skater. (You may need to click “show player usage chart”)

    That third line was a real killer, ate up the so-called “softs” by being solid outshooters/outscorers. As I wrote in a post profiling Pouliot as a viable free agent for the Oil, I noted that “The mythical ‘third scoring line’ was alive and well in New York this past season.”

    It may prove that “outscoring third liner” is where Poo Number Two fits best, but with Hall and Perron above him on the depth chart that should work out just fine.

    All we need now is a 3C and a 3RW. :|

  33. Henry says:

    PDO,

    NIll has certainly built a nice forward group on the fly.

    They are going to love Ales Hemsky, goddamit.

    I’m not sure that they are looking for their 3rd line to score a lot. Eakin and Garbutt especially are possession nightmares though. This is going to be a tough team if their D continues to develop and the goalie stays healthy.

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    A third line based on Garbutt and Roussel is going to be a giant pain in the ass for years to come. The Dallas Eakin is no slouch either, but may well find himself on the outside of the top 6 just by simple math. That is one scary forward group in Big D.

    Lowetide and others will recall when the Habs third line had 2 real shit disturbers in Doug Risebrough & Mario Tremblay with a silent-but-deadly type riding shotgun in the form of Yvon Lambert. All they did was drive you batshit while the top six skated you senseless. Not saying the Stars are quite That level, but in terms of how they are constructed it’s similar. No Jarvis and Gainey on the fourth (!) line, mind.

  35. nycoil says:

    PDO,

    That Dallas team looks very good up front. The Oilers’ road to 8th place has gotten tougher, not easier.
    West locks: LA, Chicago, St Louis. Probables: Anaheim, San Jose (if they don’t blow it up), Minnesota. Phoenix and Colorado so far got worse (-RIbeiro and Vrbata / -Stastny)) while Dallas got a lot better. Think the Oilers will be in the mix with Nashville, Phoenix for 9,10, 11 based on a full season of better goaltending, a better blue line, and growth from the kids up front. I can’t see them beating Colorado even if that team regresses, which they may. I can’t argue that Pouliot+Purcell is going to be much better than Hemsky (better because 2 decent players is better than 1 good one), but the C situation is still the clear Achilles heel at the moment and it is obvious to anyone who looks at the roster.

    To get back to Woodguy’s comment, Chicago splits its two best forwards across the top two lines.
    Edmonton could probably benefit from doing the same. Yak may eventually be better than Eberle, but for now, why not better emulate the Hawks’ model and split Hall, Eberle and Nuge up? Here the lack of a strong 2C really hurts because I don’t think they should move Arco/Draisaitl too far up the roster.

    LW Depth chart:
    Hall
    Perron
    Pouliot

    RW Depth chart:
    Eberle
    Yakupov
    Purcell

    C Depth chart:
    RNH
    Draisaitl
    Gordon
    Arcobello

    Something’s gotta give with the Cs.

    1A Perron-Nuge-Eberle
    1B Hall-Arcobello-Purcell (Hall being the best player on the team drives this line like Kane does in Chicago)
    3 Pouliot-Draisaitl-Yakupov (Pouliot babysits)
    4 Hendricks-Gordon-Pitlick/Lander

    Is that closer to Chicago? There’s no Hossa type on this roster (remember the MPS to Hossa comparisons?) and Perron may be a Sharp-lite but isn’t as good. Definitely would be helped by an upgrade on Arco.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    A third line based on Garbutt and Roussel is going to be a giant pain in the ass for years to come. The Dallas Eakin is no slouch either, but may well find himself on the outside of the top 6 just by simple math. That is one scary forward group in Big D.

    Lowetide and others will recall when the Habs third line had 2 real shit disturbers in Doug Risebrough & Mario Tremblay with a silent-but-deadly type riding shotgun in the form of Yvon Lambert. All they did was drive you batshit while the top six skated you senseless. Not saying the Stars are quite That level, but in terms of how they are constructed it’s similar. No Jarvis and Gainey on the fourth (!) line, mind.

    Hated that line, every damn one of them. LOVED Pierre Mondou though.

  37. Numenius says:

    At this time last year, McT wasn’t expecting the 2nd rounder to be such a high pick. 33 overall! Damn. It was a risk worth taking, though, and McT still got a wonderful player with it. Could still be a win even if Barbashev plays in the NHL.

  38. Ryan says:

    Numenius:
    At this time last year, McT wasn’t expecting the 2nd rounder to be such a high pick. 33 overall! Damn. It was a risk worth taking, though, and McT still got a wonderful player with it. Could still be a win even if Barbashev plays in the NHL.

    If you owned the a Oilers, what would be your timeline for when you would demand the team be competitive?

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Hated that line, every damn one of them.

    You and everybody else. Except Habs fans of the day, damn their miserable souls.

  40. Ryan says:

    Ryan: If you owned the a Oilers, what would be your timeline for when you would demand the team be competitive?

    I’ll give you a hint. It rhymes with ‘dink,’ but starts with an ‘r.’

  41. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ryan: If you owned the a Oilers, what would be your timeline for when you would demand the team be competitive?

    Opening Day. Please don’t ask which one.

  42. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ryan: I’ll give you a hint.It rhymes with ‘dink,’ but starts with an ‘r.’

    DRINK!

  43. Lowetide says:

    Ryan: If you owned the a Oilers, what would be your timeline for when you would demand the team be competitive?

    2009.

  44. Stanley 2018 says:

    I am not a conspiracy theorist. I do not believe Americans are being abducted by aliens. I do not believe George W. Bush masterminded 9/11. I may be the only one on the planet who thinks that Lee Harvey Oswald just may have been the lone gunman.

    That said, am I the only one who’s Spidey-sense tingles when you see how the team went from Hibernation Mode (aka Tambellini era) to GET ER DONE NOW! mode right when the new arena got green-lighted? Team is on pace to be playoff strength in 2 yrs.. right on time. Coincidence?

  45. Ryan says:

    Bruce McCurdy: DRINK!

    Drink to the new upcoming rink!

  46. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: 2009.

    Haha. I think they tried that year. Heatley stood up Katz, then they spent to cap to no avail…

  47. Ryan says:

    Stanley 2018:
    I am not a conspiracy theorist. I do not believe Americans are being abducted by aliens. I do not believe George W. Bush masterminded 9/11. I may be the only one on the planet who thinks that Lee Harvey Oswald just may have been the lone gunman.

    That said, am I the only one who’s Spidey-sense tingles when you see how the team went from Hibernation Mode (aka Tambellini era) to GET ER DONE NOW! mode right when the new arena got green-lighted? Team is on pace to be playoff strength in 2 yrs.. right on time. Coincidence?

    No coincidence.

  48. Pouzar says:

    Stanley 2018:
    I am not a conspiracy theorist. I do not believe Americans are being abducted by aliens. I do not believe George W. Bush masterminded 9/11. I may be the only one on the planet who thinks that Lee Harvey Oswald just may have been the lone gunman.

    That said, am I the only one who’s Spidey-sense tingles when you see how the team went from Hibernation Mode (aka Tambellini era) to GET ER DONE NOW! mode right when the new arena got green-lighted? Team is on pace to be playoff strength in 2 yrs.. right on time. Coincidence?

    Dubbya isn’t smart enuff to pull that off. DC was the man behind that.

  49. jp says:

    Bruce McCurdy:

    It may prove that “outscoring third liner” is where Poo Number Two fits best, but with Hall and Perron above him on the depth chart that should work out just fine.

    All we need now is a 3C and a 3RW.

    Aw come on. We have a 3RW.

  50. jp says:

    Numenius:
    At this time last year, McT wasn’t expecting the 2nd rounder to be such a high pick. 33 overall! Damn. It was a risk worth taking, though, and McT still got a wonderful player with it. Could still be a win even if Barbashev plays in the NHL.

    That’s true. But regardless of the exact draft position he still got Perron for MPS and a ~25% chance of 200 NHL games. If that pick does happen to turn out it’s bad luck (in a sense), but the trade was still a good bet given the performance of the actual NHL players involved.

  51. leadfarmer says:

    Yeah what this team needs is another high second round pick cuz the others have worked out so well.

  52. PDO says:

    Would anyone call the Samsonov trade in 2006 a bad trade?

    We went to G7 of the SCF because of it.

    The pick turned into Lucic.

    Sometimes those lotto tickets hit.

  53. justDOit says:

    Stanley 2018,

    Back, and to the left… back, and to the left…

  54. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    They could. They have some of the manpower available. But I’m just not sure that they envision three scoring lines. I think Burke and Hartley see things differently, evidenced by Burke’s past moves (Colton Orr, et al) and Hartley’s more recent history (the Vancouver Brouhaha) and they would want two scoring lines with a heavy line and an energy line.

    What would be funny is if they ended up with 3 scoring lines in spite of themselves.

  55. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Hated that line, every damn one of them. LOVED Pierre Mondou though.

    There’s a line going around the young folks these days.

    Come to the dark side. We have cookies. (and 24 Stanley Cups)

    I’ll always have a soft spot for the Habs. Runs in the family, just like your affinity for the Leafs of yesteryear. There’s another old-timey phrase for you. Or should that be “yore”?

  56. OilClog says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    A third line based on Garbutt and Roussel is going to be a giant pain in the ass for years to come. The Dallas Eakin is no slouch either, but may well find himself on the outside of the top 6 just by simple math. That is one scary forward group in Big D.

    Lowetide and others will recall when the Habs third line had 2 real shit disturbers in Doug Risebrough & Mario Tremblay with a silent-but-deadly type riding shotgun in the form of Yvon Lambert. All they did was drive you batshit while the top six skated you senseless. Not saying the Stars are quite That level, but in terms of how they are constructed it’s similar. No Jarvis and Gainey on the fourth (!) line, mind.

    I would say the Oilers on paper now have a pretty nasty forward group to contend with other then the 2C matchup when compared to Dallas now.

    Nuge/Hall/Yak.. Yak seems to piss every off,

    Drai/Perron/Ebs.. Perron is top in league in my books at constantly getting under the skin, what a rare gem.

    Arco/Pouliot/Purcell.. Pouls dogged puck pursuit, Arcos underrated always on top of you skill. Dog pursuit this line.

    Gordon/Hendricks/Moss/Winnick/ whoever.. Won’t be fun to play against , Hendricks is nasty.

    I actually without homerism believe the Oilers truly have assembled a powerful bunch here. Dallas looks really good but I’d still take Chances squad if I was building.

  57. danny says:

    Expos passed the Braves tonight… 1 game up, midway through the season.

    20th anniversary of the day Montreal’s music died is just 4 weeks away.

  58. FastOil says:

    If you take age into account the Oilers look pretty good in the top 6. Most currently strong teams have a lot of downhill coming soon.

  59. danny says:

    Expos record 1994: 74-40 (1st place)
    Expos record 2014: 49-40 (1st place)

    Man that team. Beauty.

  60. Zangetsu says:

    hemsky is better than purcell
    pouliot is a bit better than smyth
    draisaitl is unproven, and likely to be no better than gagner next year
    arco and gordon remain.

    When I break it down like that, I’m a lot less confident in the forward group who scored nowhere near enough goals.

    Defence is much improved not the other hand. Though, Shultz seemed like he could still carry the load last summer, and I’m afraid we find Ference in a similar position. Because oilers. Fayne and Nikitin are both quality adds though, and along with petry and marincin, and maybe jschultz, gives us the closest thing to 4 top 4 dmen since Visnovski was around.

    I liked the oil on paper last year as well. I was very surprised they played the way they did (Once we saw the advanced stats it was obvious they were bad). Some of it was goaltending, but both goalies we have now are far from proven. It’s not hard to look around the league and find guys who kill it one year and disappear. I’m feeling better with the depth at goalie, but I don’t know if we have the guy yet. Scrivens seems good but it’s hard to predict goalies.

    Maybe it’s just paranoia from being an oiler fan, but I have a bad feeling again. I’m looking at this roster and seeing players who might regress sharply (I count hendricks here). I like what they are trying to do with the Chicago model, but I’m afraid first injury we make a trade for a Mike Brown Type.

    When I look at the teams in the west, I see so many we have no chance of beating for a playoff spot (blues blackhawks, wild, stars, Ducks, Sharks, Kings), several more we are unlikely better than (yotes, preds, jets, bucks) and one we are better than but haven’t beat the last few years for no good reason (flames).

    I hope to god I’m wrong, but really, bottom five is still pretty likely next year. Sure, I think we are better than at least five teams in the east, but theres a lot of points that will disappear with those top western teams.

  61. Numenius says:

    jp: That’s true. But regardless of the exact draft position he still got Perron for MPS and a ~25% chance of 200 NHL games. If that pick does happen to turn out it’s bad luck (in a sense), but the trade was still a good bet given the performance of the actual NHL players involved.

    I absolutely agree with this. Didn’t mean to suggest otherwise in my awkwardly written post.

  62. jp says:

    Numenius: I absolutely agree with this. Didn’t mean to suggest otherwise in my awkwardly written post.

    There was nothing wrong with your post. I guess I was just re-stating and adding a little to what you said! I only quoted you because it was on topic, not because I took issue with anything you said.

  63. Hammers says:

    I’ll say it again . If McT doesn’t get us the “C” we need then get us 1 more NHL winger . Also get us 1 more “D” . A 3-4 would be nice like Boychuck .1 year to go then a UFA . That lets Klef in 2015-16 or when someone is moved at deadline & Nurse for Nitkinin in 2016 or deadline .

  64. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ryan: Drink to the new upcoming rink!

    Drink to the dink with the rink.

  65. Gerta Rauss says:

    Hammers: I’ll say it again . If McT doesn’t get us the “C” we need then get us 1 more NHL winger

    Exactly

    WG’s query assumes we have Gordon centering a tough zone start line – Hendricks and Gordon are 2/3 of that line, but we need a proven NHL RW to join them. MacT can cheat a bit with Arco/Lander at 2C, but the whole 3 scoring line talk falls short without a line doing the heavy lifting.

  66. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Yeah, this talk about Gazdic on that line is batshit AFAIC. Those guys have it tough enough already without getting an anvil on the wing.

    The guy I like for that spot is Daniel Winnik. Good experienced guy, has moved around but a Western Conference fixture. Can play centre or wing, so could fill the Smytty role with the added bonus that he actually can play centre. Put him with Gordon and Hendricks and they can have a 0% zone start & I’d be OK with that.

    Well, mostly OK. (I think there’s a whole ‘nother conversation to be had about that concept.)

  67. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Gerta Rauss,

    Yeah, this talk about Gazdic on that line is batshit AFAIC. Those guys have it tough enough already without getting an anvil on the wing.

    The guy I like for that spot is Daniel Winnik. Good experienced guy, has moved around but a Western Conference fixture. Can play centre or wing, so could fill the Smytty role with the added bonus that he actually can play centre. Put him with Gordon and Hendricks and they can have a 0% zone start & I’d be OK with that.

    Well, mostly OK. (I think there’s a whole ‘nother conversation to be had about that concept.)

    The Oilers aspire to this, but there are pieces required they don’t own. Winnik/Moss are out there, but they need the 2005 Horcoff and the 2005 Stoll, too.

  68. Bank Shot says:

    Zangetsu:
    hemsky is better than purcell
    pouliot is a bit better than smyth
    draisaitl is unproven, and likely to be no better than gagner next year
    arco and gordon remain.

    When I break it down like that, I’m a lot less confident in the forward group who scored nowhere near enough goals.

    Defence is much improved not the other hand. Though, Shultz seemed like he could still carry the load last summer, and I’m afraid we find Ference in a similar position. Because oilers. Fayne and Nikitin are both quality adds though, and along with petry and marincin, and maybe jschultz, gives us the closest thing to 4 top 4 dmen since Visnovski was around.

    I liked the oil on paper last year as well. I was very surprised they played the way they did (Once we saw the advanced stats it was obvious they were bad). Some of it was goaltending, but both goalies we have now are far from proven. It’s not hard to look around the league and find guys who kill it one year and disappear. I’m feeling better with the depth at goalie, but I don’t know if we have the guy yet. Scrivens seems good but it’s hard to predict goalies.

    Maybe it’s just paranoia from being an oiler fan, but I have a bad feeling again. I’m looking at this roster and seeing players who might regress sharply (I count hendricks here). I like what they are trying to do with the Chicago model, but I’m afraid first injury we make a trade for a Mike Brown Type.

    When I look at the teams in the west, I see so many we have no chance of beating for a playoff spot (blues blackhawks, wild, stars, Ducks, Sharks, Kings), several more we are unlikely better than (yotes, preds, jets, bucks) and one we are better than but haven’t beat the last few years for no good reason (flames).

    I hope to god I’m wrong, but really, bottom five is still pretty likely next year. Sure, I think we are better than at least five teams in the east, but theres a lot of points that will disappear with those top western teams.

    That’s about where it stands I would say. MacT needs to make a bold move or two to get this team out of the cellar. Just plugging holes that were created last season isn’t good enough, and that’s essentially all he has done thus far in the last half of last season and this offseason.

    Mact needs to go above and beyond that because the Oilers have a tonne of ground to make up. Slight improvement gets them no where.

  69. PaperDesigner says:

    I feel a little leery about dealing the second round pick again this year, if only because I have heard chatter that this 2014 class might be another 2003 draft and there may still be significant talent still on the board.

    But even so… They need to go for it. Another trade with a cap crunched team for their good, but difficult to fit centre for their second rounder and a prospect. Hold onto the Connor McDavid lotto ticket, though, because that would be far too much to risk.

    The roster needs one more player, and I think the David Perron trade is the paradigm for how it is to be done.

  70. Rebilled says:

    Remember that time that Perron scored that goal and punched that guy?

    Then he also scored a shitload of goals, usually DRIVING TO THE NET.

    Trade’em¡

  71. haters says:

    Hrmm, Perron had a great year statistically because he wasn’t playing on a defense first team maybe ? Personal stats wether they be fancy or boxy don’t equal wins dumbasses. MPS was in last years playoffs, that means to me at least the oilers didn’t win a thing. Trade or much of anything else. Good on us to have an environment where personal stats come before team wins … What a joke, I bet Purcell pots 30 goals and we wind up with 25 wins…

  72. Deadman Waiting says:

    justDOit:
    Back, and to the left… back, and to the left…

    That’s a pirate treasure map where the “X” marks Oliver Stone’s G spot. He found his button, and he’s sticking with it. Between zombie repetition and Michael Moore, I’ll take Mssr MM. First Moore adds sands to his adversary’s Vaseline. Then he places a very detailed treasure map on the master pillow (complete with a chocolate mint) as a kind of a joke. Stone actually believes his own PR, so far as I can tell. I’ve long suspected it’s mainly the chocolate mint that causes conservatives to doubt Moore’s neutrality.

    Bullets are high in energy but low in momentum. That’s why the Hollywood stunt of being blown backward when struck by a small projectile is implemented with burly men and a hidden winch.

    When a bullet penetrates a melon (arriving from any direction at all), the bullet decelerates abruptly, transferring both its energy and its momentum to the target impacted. There’s enough momentum to cause the combined system (target plus slow-moving or stopped bullet) to kick in the direction of the bullet’s direction of travel. So far so good. This is the point in high school physics were Oliver became obsessed with a private project concerning the surface tension of tightly coiled paper tubes. Energy smenergy … wwwwhhhhhhhhh. Look at the pretty cloud!

    Where is all that energy? It’s not in the small kick which carries the net momentum. No, it’s in a pressure wave emanating outward from the surface of the bullet, a pressure wave now speeding toward the melon’s fragile rind, still contained there for an initial fraction of a second.

    Has anyone ever noticed that when you pinch bubble wrap, it “pops” at a single point? Once the weakest point gives way, the energy of the compressed gas is released in a single direction. This could be any direction. The direction is not determined by how you pinch the bubble, but by where the bubble ruptures first. In physics this is called a symmetry breaking. A small difference in the strength of the membrane becomes a dominant difference in the ultimate failure mode. If this weren’t true, bullets would work more like phasors: the entire target would be affected uniformly. Weapons of this variety don’t seem to transfer much momentum. I conjecture that a phasor was not the JFK assassination weapon.

    Consider the anatomy of the human skull as a fragile melon rind. Where is the weakest point? Any boxer can tell you this: the nasal–orbital bridge. This is equally true whether the punch is delivered externally, landing just north of kisser, or whether the “punch” is an energy wave delivered internally by a speeding lead syringe.

    Guess what? Sticky contents of the pinched bobble are most likely emitted from between the eyes as a fairly substantial mass of nasal cavity cartilage, frontal lobes, and cerebral–spinal fluid, like opening a small umbrella with the former contents of the front of your face.

    Large, slow-moving chunks of brain cheese are high in momentum and low in energy. When skull contents are ejected from the face face, the “kick” of momentum delivered is mainly backwards; perhaps backward and to the right, if the left eye socket ruptures first.

    ———

    Winston Wolf: Which way did his head snap?

    Vincent: Backwards and to the right.

    Winston: Begin with the windscreen, front dashboard, the rear surfaces of the head rests if the car had any, and all the rest of the upholstery that faces toward the rear seat.

    Jules: What about the cubbywedge under the rear window? That’s where the gore usually goes when I fuck up.

    Winston: What’s the size of your gun, big guy?

    Jules: .44 magnum … this hand cannon is even bigger than my dick.

    Winston: If fired at close range on a human skull, would there be an exit wound?

    Jules: Does a constipated rhino shit after gorging on prunes?

    Winston: And you, cupcake, what’s the size of your gun?

    Vincent: Hey, Mayor McCheese … don’t call me “cupcake”.

    Winston: Pretty please with sugar on top, does your handgun fire a projectile larger than the tiny candle on a toddler’s birthday cake?

    Jules: Hell no! One time Vince here left some of his hummingbird shot lying around on the kitchen counter. I thought he had spilled the box of rat poison. I scooped them all up and left them in a little dish near a crack in the floorboards beside the bathroom door. Next day the rats raided all the wet hair from the bathtub drain and built themselves a catapult with Afro superpowers.

    Winston: Curious. And here I thought you were a clean animal … So there’s your answer: small bullet, high velocity, no exit wound, head snaps backward and to the right. Clean the fucking front of the car. At the back window [touches three fingers to forehead] you’ll find a loose earring and some large-flake seborrhoea.

    Jules: Hey Vince, what do they call “Mayor McCheese” over in Amsterdam?

    Vincent: <sarcastic> Mayo McCheesehead … Lawrence of Asiago. How the fuck would I know? It’s fucking Amsterdam … any kids there speak Lebanese.

    Winston: At a time like this, I always say there’s no time like tomorrow to lose focus. How about you both snap to it, forward and towards the garage door?

    ———

    I think I did this one once before and my recent forefingerscar riff, too. At least the relish is fresh.

    Merely contemplating Mayor McCheese with a head cold puts me in mind of Jack Nicholson from The Witches of Eastwick. There is social liability, and then there is social liability.

  73. Deadman Waiting says:

    I just figured out what I was doing there. Gere in Chicago sings “the gun, the gun, the gun, the gun”. This is how Stone employs “back and to the right” in JFK. The Gerish rebuttal to Stone is “the gore, the gore, the gore, the gore”.

    It’s a battle over cognitive salience. Guns (and bullets) in our culture have high intrinsic salience. To fully shift the frame of reference one needs to write “like opening an umbrella with the former contents of the front of your face” which provides a different—and extremely personal—perspective on net momentum transfer, which I reinforced several times with images of messy cheeseburger ejaculate.

    Stone behaves more like Billy Flynn than Michael Moore does. Moore’s tactics are less slick.

  74. mumbai max says:

    haters:
    Hrmm, Perron had a great year statistically because he wasn’t playing on a defense first team maybe ? Personal stats wether they be fancy or boxy don’t equal wins dumbasses. MPS was in last years playoffs, that means to me at least the oilers didn’t win a thing. Trade or much of anything else. Good on us to have an environment where personal stats come before team wins … What a joke, I bet Purcell pots 30 goals and we wind up with 25 wins…

    Such a cheerful soul. Bah. Humbug

  75. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Perron…. what a dream!

    I think we need to be careful here. Need to try to keep the player and everything else separate, that means the term, the $$ and the trade.

    Just as we tend to obsess over value (which is a real thing to worry over) and sometimes miss the player underneath the haze of $$$ (Hello Horcov!), we can tend to obsess over trade pieces.

    Magnus and Barbashev (oh… man do I love me some Barbashev) are damn nice pieces. But, let’s try to keep Perron the player straight in our head. Damn fine player. One of the bright happy moments from last year.

    I hollered, “The Frenchman!” at the TV a lot last year. Hope to do so again for years.

  76. jp says:

    haters:
    Hrmm, Perron had a great year statistically because he wasn’t playing on a defense first team maybe ? Personal stats wether they be fancy or boxy don’t equal wins dumbasses. MPS was in last years playoffs, that means to me at least the oilers didn’t win a thing. Trade or much of anything else. Good on us to have an environment where personal stats come before team wins … What a joke, I bet Purcell pots 30 goals and we wind up with 25 wins…

    I feel like it’s been a really long time since I was called a dumbass.

  77. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Speaking of scoring…..

    It looks like the Oilers are trying to follow the CHI model and get three scoring lines and a tough zone start line.

    Which other teams also look like they are building that way for this coming year?

    NHL is a copycat league and I wonder how many teams are copying CHI?

    Thoughts?

    This is a great question.

    There’s maybe a subtending one here about how little we know about coaching effects. And how hard it is to unwrap what a coach does.

    If you look at MC79′s work on O-zone faceoff loses (starting with ANA), you see a couple of things.

    One, a really smart coach is going to innovate the fuck out of what he has his men doing on the ice. There’s so much more going on, then the “intermission pep talk” the MSM leads us to believe is all coaching is.

    Two, you really have to get down and dirty and do a lot of work (like MC did) to find the nuance in how coaching operates. God knows the MSM isn’t going to tell you what’s happening and the coaches themselves have zero interest in sharing trade secrets.

    There’s my opening gamble.

    Here’s my attempt to work through it with my own limited knowledge.

  78. godot10 says:

    The OIlers can line up with a hybrid Chicago model at the moment, with a Kruger-like 4th line that should be able to handle D-zones starts against most lines, except top lines of the opposition.

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle
    Perron, Gordon, Purcell
    Pouliot, Draisaitl, Yakupov
    Hendricks, Lander, Arcobello
    Gadzic, Pitlick

    If one constructs the roster this way, the need for a 2C looks less than absolutely critical. Wait for Philly or Boston or Chicago to spit a guy out because of the cap.

    If Draisaitl isn’t ready, I’d run Lander between Pouliot and Yakkupov, and have Arcobello centre the 4th line.

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    If we start with a couple of assumptions.

    1) usage charts can tell us a lot about what the hell is going on and can give us a thumbnail about “models of deployment”

    2) successful models may pirate from other teams in small matters (say MC’s o-zone faceoff loss idea), but will probably keep to the status quo on the big screen

    3) teams with large turnover (management and/or coaching and/or roster) are far more likely to adopt a successful model, regardless of past success.

    4) teams with middling to atrocious recent records are far more likely to adopt a successful model

    5) 3 and 4 combined pretty much guarantees radical change and potential for imported ideas.

    6) roster construction is going to constrain any attempt to follow any given successful model.

  80. haters says:

    mumbai max,

    Sorry, I’m just tired of people saying we win that trade. Unless we make a deep playoff run and Perron is a contributing factor we haven’t won $h!T. This is a team game, the worst player on the LA kings is light years ahead of any oiler. Wait a couple years ( years I believe we will be in the outside of the playoff picture which in IMO is where a player shows his true merit) and tell me we won that trade !

  81. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LT, your damn system is eating my posts again.

  82. Lowetide says:

    haters:
    mumbai max,

    Sorry, I’m just tired of people saying we win that trade. Unless we make a deep playoff run and Perron is a contributing factor we haven’t won $h!T. This is a team game, the worst player on the LA kings is light years ahead of any oiler. Wait a couple years ( years I believe we will be in the outside of the playoff picture which in IMO is where a player shows his true merit) and tell me we won that trade !

    The Oilers acquired an actual NHL player, and the best player in the deal, so generally speaking we accept they won the trade. Two years from now, Perron may have scored 75+ for this team, Paajarvi may be emerging as a two-way player and Barbashev may be finishing off a promising junior career.

    That’s still a win. The deal was always today for tomorrow, and Edmonton wanted more of today. Framing the issue as you have, which is basically “there’s a chance the future emerges” sets up the deal for fail.

    No sir. Reducing Perron’s 13-14 season in any way is a non-starter here. If you want to be afraid of the future, go ahead. Just don’t try selling your Watchtower’s around here.

    No sale.

  83. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    can you un-spam me LT?

    kind of harshing my mellow here.

    can’t post anything.

  84. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    can you un-spam me LT?

    kind of harshing my mellow here.

    can’t post anything.

    You’re not spammed, there’s nothing in the moderation pile.

  85. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: You’re not spammed, there’s nothing in the moderation pile.

    Curious. It won’t let me post a pretty short post with two links (extraskater). Says it looks like spam. When I try to post it again it says “you’ve already said that” or something.

    I can’t keep re-writing the same short paragraph, too much time. I’ll put a post up at the rig today on WG’s question.

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Now, we know AV did something like this with Malholtra

    http://www.extraskater.com/team/vancouver-canucks/2011#player-usage-chart

    So, it’s not entirely unprecedented. But, it still looks damn radical.

  87. Pouzar says:

    haters: mumbai max, Sorry, I’m just tired of people saying we win that trade. Unless we make a deep playoff run and Perron is a contributing factor we haven’t won $h!T. This is a team game, the worst player on the LA kings is light years ahead of any oiler. Wait a couple years ( years I believe we will be in the outside of the playoff picture which in IMO is where a player shows his true merit) and tell me we won that trade !

    WTF is this? Take that sh!t back to HF Oil son

  88. Pouzar says:

    haters: Hrmm, Perron had a great year statistically because he wasn’t playing on a defense first team maybe ? Personal stats wether they be fancy or boxy don’t equal wins dumbasses. MPS was in last years playoffs, that means to me at least the oilers didn’t win a thing. Trade or much of anything else. Good on us to have an environment where personal stats come before team wins … What a joke, I bet Purcell pots 30 goals and we wind up with 25 wins…

    And just when I thought it couldn’t get any worse.

  89. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ha. It just hates the Chicago page from extraskater. what a completely bizarre, idiosyncratic aversion.

  90. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    At any rate,

    2013: Chi has Kruger, Bollig and Smith in Hoth, everyone else miles away in daiquiri land.

    Because the roster hasn’t turned over dramatically, and Q is still in charge you can look back over the past three years.

    (hop over to ES and look at CHI usage for 2012 and 2011)

    You can see the germ of the thought there… but flower wasn’t in full bloom until this season. I suspect the emergence of young Kruger as the fucking ace piss cutter of the 4th liners has a lot to do with it.

    Two years ago you can see Bolland and Kruger both in the hard area (Bolland much deeper). And there’s an assortment of wingers (Frolik, Bickell) present.

    Last year, Kruger is basically by himself in Hoth. Note that Bollig is in happy land.

    This year, another thing of note is how stable that Kruger line (with Bollig and Smith) was. Q had them together all damn year.

    So, that’s two things about Chicago that are unique and may not hold across other teams

    1) an elite 4C in Kruger

    2) roster stability (which Q has a say in too)

  91. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Now, I looked at the Oilers usage here

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/3/12/5501878/the-gazdic-comparables

    and found what a lot of others did. Eakins was giving Q a hat tip, but only had Gordon to run with (toward the end of the year he added Hendricks to the stew once he came over for DD)

    So, it’s not like there was a post-season revelation here by MacT. They were leaning this way all year, they just didn’t have the horses.

  92. Lowetide says:

    Rom: The thing I want to know is how did the know about Kruger? Did they KNOW KNOW, as the Habs clearly did with Doug Jarvis (they traded for him the same summer Toronto drafted him, which is highly unusual, I’d say it’s the most unusual transaction type in NHL history) or did they just draft this Kruger-and then fall ass over tea kettle into it?

    By reputation, Anton Lander would be a good candidate for that role. Seriously.

  93. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Now, before looking any further, let’s have a look at an alternative model that is equally successful.

    http://www.extraskater.com/team/los-angeles-kings/2013#player-usage-chart

    Alongside a pair of D (Mitchell, Regehr), Sutter has Stoll (3C) and Kopitar (1/2C) deep in the depths and has Richards and Carter in much friendlier territory (Richards is drinking sweet tea way up there).

    points of interest: the guys in the hard lands are Cs. Stoll is where you’d expect if LAK were following a similar model to CHI… but it’s Kopitar’s presence that is the marvel.

    Now, what are we to make of that?

    Is Sutter failing to optimize Koptiar offensively? Or, is he taking advantage of the fact that Kopitar can push the river from the bottom of a waterfall?

    Would Q play him there?

    At any rate, I suspect this 2/2 split (2 O Cs and 2 D Cs) is more “traditional” that Q’s Chi team.

  94. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Now, a variation on the LAK/Sutter model might be Julien out of Boston.

    He’s got basically all of his Cs in the shit. Only Krejci gets a favorable push. Bergeron, Kelly and Campbell (alongside just Chara of the D) are in the muck.

    Now, bergeron = kopitar here; Kelly = stoll. And, Julien has added Campbell.

    A couple of thoughts.

    1) is Julien failing to optimize bergeron, like maybe Sutter is with Kopitar?

    2) or, are they taking advantage of having crack-two-way players?

    3) once again it’s the Cs at the back of the deck

    4) Campbell is not Kruger. not by a mile.

    5) how much of this is coaching decisions absent roster vs. coaching decisions in light of roster? ie., would Q come in to Boston and just repeat his Chi model, or find that Campbell can’t cover the night shift and try Kelly say? or would he just alter his model altogether?

  95. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’ve always thought of the traditional model as having lines in each of four quadrants, defined by zone start and quality of competition.

    1. Ozone Tough Comp
    2. Ozone Easy Comp
    3. Dzone Tough Comp
    4. Dzone Easy Comp

    By this measurement the 3c is actually the second most important C on the team (Bergeron is the player model for 3c in this model).

    The difficult thing here is that there isn’t an even split between oZone and dZone draws… for whatever reason bad teams seem to take a lot more dZone draws than good teams.

  96. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    A variation of Bos is SJS. McLellan has all three of his top Cs in the muck (Thornton, Couture and Pavelski).

    Only Desjardins gets the fun girls. he’s in the easy lane.

    This is really the radical opposite of the Chi model as far as I can tell. He’s got all his best Cs lifting heavy objects all over town.

    The funny thing is that both are corsifor event creation machines. (sjs were first in the NHL last year in number of corsifor events; Chi were 8th)

    and If I were to guess based on just the usage charts, I’d guess that SJS have a better CF% because they appear more committed to D, having all their Cs in the shit… but it’s the other way around.

    At any rate, the grumble out of SJS is so asinine that we might see some real changes over there… they are more frustrated than a teenage boy at a jr. high dance.

  97. haters says:

    Lowetide,

    Wow… Just total crap, what did Perron win ? Nothing. What place did the TEAM come in ? Second Last. How many F@&)s I give that Perron scored a couple points on a 5-2 loss we had last year ? None. Until the Team starts to put W’s up and makes it to the only season of relevancy your rose colored glasses can go where the sun don’t shine bro.

  98. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Going the other way completely, and perhaps the weirdest team to try and sort out is those fucking devils.

    DeBoer is basically opposite Sutter/Julien/McLellan. He’s got his top 3 centers (Zajac, Henrique and Elias) up and under the shirt already. Henrique is the only one who can’t get the bra off.

    Then, he’s got Gionta down in D-zone crap… but he’s got nothing for qualcomp, suggesting he’s lining up against 4th liners pretty much exclusively.

    You’d expect this kind of push to lead to more corsifor events… But, despite the fact that they are 4th in the league in CF% and 2nd in CorsiAgainst events (they don’t allow any shots at all), they are 13th in corsifor events.

    I’m tempted to just forget about them and suggest they are an world unto themselves, but the usage push for the Cs does suggest something of a model trying to generate offence from the Cs, which is potentially limited by the talent available.

    It will be interesting to watch for other teams trying to optimize like this. At any rate, there is something like the Chi model here (3cs forward, 1 back), with a lot of differences.

  99. dawgtoy says:

    haters,

    “Don’t go away mad, just go away!”

  100. russ99 says:

    godot10:
    The OIlers can line up with a hybrid Chicago model at the moment, with a Kruger-like 4th line that should be able to handle D-zones starts against most lines, except top lines of the opposition.

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle
    Perron, Gordon, Purcell
    Pouliot, Draisaitl, Yakupov
    Hendricks, Lander, Arcobello
    Gadzic, Pitlick

    If one constructs the roster this way, the need for a 2C looks less than absolutely critical.Wait for Philly or Boston or Chicago to spit a guy out because of the cap.

    If Draisaitl isn’t ready, I’d run Lander between Pouliot and Yakkupov, and have Arcobello centre the 4th line.

    I’m right with you on those lines, but I’d move Perron with Draisaitl/Yak, as he’d kill with those two vs. soft parade.

    But it would be prudent to add another experienced NHL center (regardless of quality) in case Draisaitl can’t hack it after his 9 game audition or if someone gets hurt.

  101. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The rangers, under AV are the best candidate for CHi-model replication. They did it last year

    http://www.extraskater.com/team/new-york-rangers/2013#player-usage-chart

    The wrinkle here is that they had Dom Moore right there too. so, two Centers… that’s would be like having Lander on Gordon’s wing (which isn’t a bad idea really)

    trick will be trying to find a replacement for Boyle. I suspect Moore will take over the job. I don’t see AV pushing Brassard or Stepan back into hell.

    bank on AV (the originator) on going through with the so-called Chicago model

  102. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Both Stl and OTT are in the traditional model. The hybrid mixing some forward, some back.

    STL has Laperriere in the punish zone, but he’s only got feathers hitting him. And, Backes is playing the Kopitar/Bergeron role.

    Sobotka is a straddler and Bergland is getting the happy push.

    Ott is roughly the same. Turris plays the Kopitar/Bergeron role. Smith plays the Stoll/Kelly role and Spezza gets the push.

    With SPezza out and Legwand in it will be interesting to see how things work out. They could use Smith in the Kruger role (with some good wingers, he might be able to handle it), but I suspect MacLean will stick with what he knows.

    I don’t see Hitchcock changing.

  103. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    TB is a really good option for CHI model.

    they were pretty close this year. They have Thompson in the deep end and Johnson, Stamkos and Filpulla up in happy land.

    One thing that differs is that Thompson, like some of the other variations near the Chi-model, isn’t facing nearly as tough a comp as Kruger.

    With the addition of Boyle, I’d wager this model gets pushed further. and you might see the qual comp of the 4th line C (maybe a line with both Boyle and thompson, like in NYR with Moore and Boyle) take a steep jump.

  104. Lowetide says:

    Traded Nate Thompson.

  105. Woodguy says:

    Thanks for the thoughtful responses everyone.

    I wanted to write a more thoughtful take, but my schedule hasn’t allowed more than 15 min of free time, just enough to look at capgeek and suss some rosters.

    From glancing at capgeek, I think the following teams are moving towards icing a proper hockey team (4 lines that have defined hockey roles) than the garbage we’ve seen here and on other teams for years (3 lines with defined hockey roles and a GrittyHitty line that serves almost no purpose)

    Remember, I’m just talking about current roster make up, not deployment based on last year

    EC

    WAS – closer than they were, still not there
    TBY
    BOS – flushing of Thornton and not replacing him suggests it
    NJD
    DET
    NYR – although signing Glass is a truly WTF moment.
    NYI – I wouldn’t be surprised if they win a round in the playoffs, maybe more.
    MTL
    OTT – weird bottom of roster. Could……

    WC

    LAK – as noted, they run their 4 line differently, but they have 4 hockey lines to run. Edging on GrittyHitty with Nolan, Clifford and King
    STL – similar to LAK, not bringing back Morrow and Ott will help
    DAL
    MIN
    WIN – If they cut bait on Pavalec they could make the playoffs
    CHI
    EDM – almost……

    I’m sad that I can’t include SJS. Signing Scott, Brown and the presence of Desjardins doesn’t allow for it.

  106. nycoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    The rangers, under AV are the best candidate for CHi-model replication. They did it last year

    http://www.extraskater.com/team/new-york-rangers/2013#player-usage-chart

    The wrinkle here is that they had Dom Moore right there too. so, two Centers… that’s would be like having Lander on Gordon’s wing (which isn’t a bad idea really)

    trick will be trying to find a replacement for Boyle. I suspect Moore will take over the job. I don’t see AV pushing Brassard or Stepan back into hell.

    bank on AV (the originator) on going through with the so-called Chicago model

    I think having Lander on Gordon’s wing has been a great idea all along. Learn from the best defensive centre we have. Sadly no one seems to agree.

    I also pointed out early in this post that the problem with the Chicago model in Edmonton is Gazdic has no place in it.

    Also we are looking at the forward lines but without Keith and Seabrook playing half the game the Oilers’ forwards need to be better than Chicago’s.

    The last thing is Kane and Toews are split. So Hall and Nuge would be split.
    RNH-Perron-Eberle
    Arcobello-Hall-Yakupov
    Draisaitl-Pouliot-Purcell
    Gordon-Hendricks-Lander

  107. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Dallas is much more traditional

    Benn/Seguin (tied at the hip now, Benn seems to be the C… note the lack of handwringing about him at C unlike with Hall… oh, non-hockey markets) and Peverly are forward and Eakin/Fiddler are behind.

    Horcoff is, surprisingly, in happy land and only took about 400 draws.

    I’d expect the addition of Spezza isn’t going to change this make up. Fiddler coming back too.

    http://www.extraskater.com/team/dallas-stars/2013#player-usage-chart

  108. Lowetide says:

    WG: One thing about the ‘Hawks is that they HAVE employed tough fellows but done it effectively in 4line roles. I’m just really in awe of what Quenneville is doing there.

  109. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Traded Nate Thompson.

    missed that. Well, Boyle will enjoy his elevated role as the 4C then… haha.

  110. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    nycoil: I think having Lander on Gordon’s wing has been a great idea all along. Learn from the best defensive centre we have. Sadly no one seems to agree.

    I also pointed out early in this postthat the problem with the Chicago model in Edmonton is Gazdic has no place in it.

    Also we are looking at the forward lines but without Keith and Seabrook playing half the game the Oilers’ forwards need to be better than Chicago’s.

    The last thing is Kane and Toews are split. So Hall and Nuge would be split.
    RNH-Perron-Eberle
    Arcobello-Hall-Yakupov
    Draisaitl-Pouliot-Purcell
    Gordon-Hendricks-Lander

    Well, Chicago did their thing last year with Bollig on the wing all year. Playing c. 10 minutes of 5×5 TOI/60.

    So, they got some voodoo out of him.

    Personally, I think Kruger is some kind of devil. He may well be the most underrated player in the league.

    It’s not just the severe starts, the hard comps. it’s having to do it with Bollig on the ice at every turn.

  111. kb says:

    I like this lineup more than most options we have…

    RNH-Perron-Eberle
    Arcobello-Hall-Yakupov
    Draisaitl-Pouliot-Purcell
    Gordon-Hendricks-Lander

    Lander could maybe take over if Draisaitl struggles?
    It would be nice to have 1 more nhl caliber C and have lander/arco in the pressbox.

  112. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Det more traditional Andersson (get him MacT!!!) and Glendening in the muck, with Zetterberg playing the Kopitar role, albeit with a much more favorable zone start. And, they’ve got Datsyuk in the Krejci role.

    CBJs seem to be in the SJS model. All the Cs are behind the 8-ball (Dubinsky, Anisimov, RyJo, Letestu, MacKenzie)

    PHX gave Vermette the Kopitar role. Halperin is in the deep but easy Laperierre role. Riberio gets a big push.

    I don’t see CBJs merging into Chi they way they are structured. PHX is going to put Gagner in the Riberio role and try to ride Vermette and Hanzal for the toughs.

    Detroit isn’t about to change.

  113. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Anaheim is closest to what Cash-Money suggests above

    Perreault in the easy quadrant (sheltered). Bonino astride the “less sheltered”; Getzlaf close to the “two way” but firmly in the Kopitar role; and Koivu on an island by himself deep in the heart of shut-down.

    http://www.extraskater.com/team/anaheim-ducks/2013#player-usage-chart

    with all their turnover at C hard to know what’s next. I could see Getzlaf getting a push and Kesler taking over the Koptiar role.

  114. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I won’t go on endlessly.

    Of the remaining teams, the ones that come closest to the Chi model in terms of deployment are

    Nash with gaustad in the deep all alone

    Carolina with the cipher himself Malholtra

    Philly with Hall alone in the deep.

    Minn with Brodziak.

    Tor with McClement.

  115. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:

    Remember, I’m just talking about current roster make up, not deployment based on last year

    Now you tell me!

    haha.

    Read carefully Rom. Read carefully you idiot!

  116. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers aspire to this, but there are pieces required they don’t own. Winnik/Moss are out there, but they need the 2005 Horcoff and the 2005 Stoll, too.

    Agreed, the hole at centre remains. I believe the premise for the discussion was originally “if we don’t add a centre then at minimum we better add a good winger for the d-zone line”, although that may have been three threads & two blogs ago & I’m running concepts together again.

    But yes, there is nothing resembling “young vets Horcoff and Stoll on cheap contracts” on this club. It’s a huge shortcoming.

  117. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: By reputation, Anton Lander would be a good candidate for that role. Seriously.

    Huh, I had a “perfect world Lander = Kruger” thought just yesterday. I would give my left appendix to get a player like Kruger, what a beauty.

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