SCHULTZ! OFFICE!

How much for Justin Schultz? I thought we’d be looking at something north of $4.5 million and long term. Edmonton buying seasons at $3.5 million until free agency and then the dreaded fin as far as the eye can see. Well, maybe not? The Oilers aren’t giving in to Schultz and vice versa, which means a great divide (if this was close it would be done).

  • MacT: “That’s still ongoing. I think that both sides fully expect to get a deal. We want to treat Justin very very fairly. He’s working his way through the system. I guess at this point that’s probably the friction point. When you compare him to guys on our team, where he fits in is not going to be entirely reflective of our value of him, it’s more a reflection of the system and where he is in the system.”

schultz 13-14 vollman

The Vollman Sledgehammer shows Schultz (this is CorsiRel) in the tough opposition zone (Oilers had no choice, lack of depth) and getting a zone start push while still below 50% in ZS’s. Looking at this graph, it drives home the importance of Petry even if it is for only one year. MacT’s comments on Petry yesterday sounded encouraging, but there’s a real danger (which he acknowledged) and I expect Petry’s gone or signing to $5.5 or more at the deadline. Back to Schultz.

Justin Schultz 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.96 (2nd among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.06 (1st among regular D)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughes faced among regular D (2nd pairing)
  • Qual Team: best available teammates among regular D (1st pairing)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 43.5
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -1.6
  • Zone Start: 48.1% (2nd easiest among regular D)
  • Zone Finish: 49.5% (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 85/9.41% (best among F’s>30 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48, 8-19-27

Justin Schultz 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.86 (1st among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.23 (2n among regular D)
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest faced among regular D (1st pairing)
  • Qual Team: 2nd best available teammates among regular D (1st pairing)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 42.9
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -2.6
  • Zone Start: 46.4% (3rd easiest among regular D)
  • Zone Finish: 46.8% (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 109/10.1% (best among F’s>50 shots)
  • Boxcars: 74, 11-22-33

The real change offensively year over year came on the power play, hopefully Ramsay will find a way. The smart play from here is to keep Schultz on the 1PP, but give him a hammer partner (at this point Nikitin). I’d also run Nuge, Hall and Yakupov as the 1 forwards, but doubt it happens (someone is going to be pissed eventually, Oilers have some insane offensive talent for the 5×4 and 5×3). Fiscal responsibility in regard to No. 19 is good business: he’s a talent but miles from being an impact talent.

yakimov twitter1

 LOIS LOWE SPECIAL REPORT FROM JASPER

I was at the Blue and White game tonigt in Jasper (aside: the Oilers were confused about which team was which and handed out programs incorrectly identifying Team “Blue” that wore white, and Team “White” that wore blue).

I am not an evaluator of talent, nor am I a hockey expert, so take my observations with a dumptruck’s worth of salt. The format was 15 minute periods of 4 on 4, with no real faceoffs except on goals and pucks out of play. The players seemed to really need a chance to get going, the final half was at a decent pace. Team White (wearing the white) was pretty much stacked with all of the higher end prospects to my eye.

  • Marco Roy was very vocal, directing the play and trying to help his teammates move the puck to open areas. He was almost the only one making any noise. He buzzes around like Perron and has a similar style to his game (I swear I’m not making the comparison because they’re both Quebecois). He’s slippery in the offensive zone and bounces around in the corners. Saw him good.
  • Leon the Teuton was sluggish and slow tonight. He didn’t play the majority of the 3rd period. He has excellent hands though and legs up to his ears. His shoot out slap shot was ugly. Saw him meh.
  • Darnell Nurse must have played over half the game. It seemed like he was almost aways on the ice. He’s clearly the most athleticly gifted among the kids at camp and appears to have stayed in excellent shape. He played at close to full speed most of the game and laid the only real hit of the evening. He spent much of the game jumping into the rush and was realy trying to make things happen offensively. For a kid that’s apparently under 200lbs he’s BIG. The kid is a gamer, he competes. Saw him good.
  • Dillon Simpson was paired with Nurse for most of the game. I can see why people say he has skating issues as he doesn’t really have a very good first step. He should talk to his step mom about some lessons. That said, out of everyone on the ice he has the best anticipation. He always seemed to know where the puck/play was heading and made the right reads (this was mosty in the O zone as that’s where I was sitting). Saw him good.
  • Joey Laleggia has NHL speed right now. Easily the fastest player on the ice and excellent offensive instincts. He’s very small though. Saw him good but worried about his size.
  • Jar Jar was a force tonight. He uses his body to shield the puck extremely well and drives the net hard. He’s easily the biggest forward on the ice and used that to his advantage. Underrated puck mover to my mind, he did well at drawing people to him and finding the open man. The official score sheet was a bit wonky with assists, I had him with 4 points. He’ll get a top 6 spot in OKC next year. Excellent cheeky shoot out move at the end. Saw him very good.
  • Greg Chase’s game is not well suited to intra squad games, as the pace picked up in the second half he became more visible. At one point he clipped Jar Jar after the play and you could see Khaira taking his number. Chase is a solid kid and hits hard. Has an excellent shot as well. Saw him good.
  • Yakimov’s night was pretty uneven despite all the points. He was integral on the two goals he assisted on (McCarron and Vessel, I think). His goal was a bit of fluke. He was in the high slot and the puck sort of bounced around and found him, but he absolutely sniped it. He has an excellent shot. He gasses very easily and needs to take very short shifts. I didn’t really notice him until he did something excellent to create a scoring chance. He doesn’t use his size like Jar Jar but is better in tight with the puck and has good vision. Saw him meh.
  • The player with the most eyeglow/60 was Colin Markison. He had about three or four good breakaway chances and started chirping at the refs over a missed call. He knows that this is an opportunity and is clearly taking it as such.

Many of the other kids had moments but I was trying to also watch the game.

PROJECTED ROSTER AND SALARY CAP 2013-14

LEFT WING CENTER RIGHT WING
TAYLOR HALL (6M) RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS (6M) JORDAN EBERLE (6M)
BENOIT POULIOT (4M) LEON DRAISAITL (1M-est) DAVID PERRON (4.5M)
NAIL YAKUPOV (925k) MARK ARCOBELLO (600k) TEDDY PURCELL (4.5M)
JESSE JOENSUU (950k) BOYD GORDON (3M) MATT HENDRICKS (1.85M)
  ANTON LANDER (600k) TYLER PITLICK (600k-est)

That’s $40,525,000 of the cap spent on forwards. I’ve sent Gazdic to the IR, his $600,000 would replace Pitlick when he’s healthy. I really like the wingers on the top three lines, if only Khaira, Yakimov or Draisaitl were a few years older.

LEFT DEFENSE RIGHT DEFENSE
MARTIN MARINCIN (730k) JEFF PETRY (3.075M)
NIKITA NIKITIN (4.5M) MARK FAYNE (3.625M)
ANDREW FERENCE (3.25M) JUSTIN SCHULTZ (4M-est)
KEITH AULIE (800k) OSCAR KLEFBOM ($894,167)
   
BEN SCRIVENS (2.3M) VIKTOR FASTH (2.9M)

That’s $25,180,000 for defense and goaltending (I’ve excluded Klefbom’s number). I like this blue line far more than recent seasons, even the unproven guys have shown some things. There is no impact defenseman on the roster, no top pairing defender, but the Oilers ran well a decade ago without one—it can be done.

TOTAL NUMBER: $65,705,000

CAP ROOM: $3,295,000

 

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

10-noon today, TSN 1260. I’ll have

  • Rom will join me to talk draft, free agency and center ice.
  • Corey Pronman from ESPN stops by to review the draft and look forward to 2015.
  • Bruce McCurdy from Cult of Hockey join me, we’ll discuss the Billy Moores game from last night and I’ll ask about the major players (feel free to chime in).
  • Travis Yost from Hockeybuzz and I will chat about Bryan Murray, David Legwand and more.

Please send ?s for guests and tune in if you can!

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136 Responses to "SCHULTZ! OFFICE!"

  1. TheGreatMutato says:

    Good morning gents,

    Perhaps I’m being cynical, but I sometimes wonder just how much of the value the Oilers place on Schultz is derived from the amount of effort they put into procuring him. Sort of “if we trade him, we can’t ask Gretzky to phone up any more free agents for us!” I hope he turns out (as we all do), but also hope that the Oilers are open minded enough to consider their options. It’s rare for the fanbase to have the opportunity to see a player moved prior to his value being completely eroded.

  2. justDOit says:

    Wait – Klink is looking for Schultz? I thought Schultz was looking for some clink!

  3. Hammers says:

    My guess is Joensuu doesn’t make it without a real push at training camp but his 950 will be replaced with Gazdic at 800 . I didn’t check your numbers but thought we had $ 8.7 mill without Schultz so at 4 we should have 4.7 left . Are you high on Perron thought he was $ 3.7 ?? . Either way money should be there re a trade if or when it comes . Also feel its 50/50 on Leon making it especially if McT gets that “C” . Also need to add Nurse as he will get 9 games but someone will go on IR so maybe not required . Thanks to Lois.

  4. Racki says:

    I may be off in thinking this, but while Schultz’s potential is higher, I think his bridge deal should be no more than Petry. Needs to prove himself first. I’m glad the plan is for a bridge deal right now because I don’t think there is enough known about Jultz yet.. Even though it could cost them in the long run. Much more risky giving him a long term deal than Subban was when he got his bridge.

  5. denny33 says:

    Kudos to Lois Lowe – Great Job…love the report.

    LT – great post yesterday about Petry – don’t back down on it. Oilers are treading in dangerous water with a 1 year deal. ( As Mac T himself mentioned )

    Regarding Schultz – there seems to be a massive difference between what the Oilers management see in Justin and what most of the league/fans see in Justin. ( league acknowledges his raw talent )

    If this organization runs out Justin in the top 4 in the Western Conference – we will have a tough time avoiding a lottery pick for 2015.

  6. rickithebear says:

    Gazdic?

  7. TheGreatMutato says:

    If this organization runs out Justin in the top 4 in the Western Conference – we will have a tough time avoiding a lottery pick for 2015.

    You may be on to something ;-)

  8. haters says:

    Jshultz to bluejackets for Anisimov +. Any takers ?

  9. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    Gazdic?

    More proof people don’t read my blog. They COME to my blog, but don’t read it

  10. mumbai max says:

    LT, even with Klef excluded you have too many bodies on your roster. I think the surplus is actually a bit over 4 million. Still enough to take advantage of salary dumps or a magic beans for salary trade.

  11. book¡je says:

    Lowetide: More proof people don’t read my blog. They COME to my blog, but don’t read it

    I just come here for the pictures.

  12. mumbai max says:

    p.s. Capgeek shows 4.782 M remaining with Shultz at 4 M.

  13. Lynas1 says:

    Hey LT. Good one today. Also, thanks Lois Lowe for the by-eye evaluation on some of the guys at camp. I find it very interesting/helpful.

    If Yakimov gets gassed so easily, I wonder what that’ll mean for his spot on the centre depth chart in OKC. Can he handle the work load of a 1C? Dies Jujhar get 1C, or 2C? Anyone have any guesses/info on a possible look at OKC roster?

    On a completely unrelated note, I’ve noticed that most/all of the people dealing with the Oilers pronounce Teddy Percell’s name wrong. It’s not Per-Cell, it’s like parcel (ie: like a package). One of my good friends grew up playing house league hockey with him in St. John’s. I had no idea until he told me a few years ago. :P

    I always appreciate knowing how to correctly pronounce people’s name like Musil (Mew-Seal), or Bogdan (Boh-dan) etc cause growing up on the Rock nobody could get my name right (it’s not hard to do) but it used to drive me to distraction :P

  14. Pouzar says:

    Lynas1,

    Welcome fellow countryman.

  15. Lynas1 says:

    Pouzar,

    Fellow super-Newf?

  16. russ99 says:

    I don’t get why everyone is so ready to give up on Schultz after 122 NHL games and 34 AHL games.

    Dump him and we’re looking for a quality puck mover all over again…

  17. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: More proof people don’t read my blog. They COME to my blog, but don’t read it

    Correct.

    We just jump into the comments section with axes and a large grindstone.

  18. book¡je says:

    Lynas1,

    I think you mean Teddy Percell pronounces his name wrong. Percell is per-sell, it’s not debatable. There is no precedent in English for an E to sound like an A.

  19. dawgtoy says:

    Lynas1: If Yakimov gets gassed so easily, I wonder what that’ll mean for his spot on the centre depth chart in OKC. Can he handle the work load of a 1C? Dies Jujhar get 1C, or 2C? Anyone have any guesses/info on a possible look at OKC roster?

    Please don’t jump to any conclusions about his conditioning based on summer orientation camp. They also spent the previous night “sleeping” in the wilderness. Go easy on Yak squared for now, I’m sure his conditioning will improve when he gets a full nights sleep. There is still a ways to go until camp starts, I’m sure he’ll be ready.

  20. Lynas1 says:

    book¡je:
    Lynas1,

    I think you mean Teddy Percell pronounces his name wrong.Percell is per-sell, it’s not debatable.There is no precedent in English for an E to sound like an A.

    Well, this post isn’t in “troll” font so I’m assuming you’re being serious. English language rules have no business on the Rock. His name isn’t Per-Cell.

  21. Lynas1 says:

    dawgtoy,

    I didn’t think I was being hard on Yakimov. I’m just curious about his place on the OKC Centre Depth chart for next year. Especially if he’s not in terrific shape. Even if he is, does he get 1C, or does Jujhar? Was just curious.

  22. Pouzar says:

    Nice job again Rom….

    Q. Why Mueller?

  23. Pouzar says:

    Lynas1: Pouzar, Fellow super-Newf?

    Yessir.

    Dyin a slow death in da Peg now.

  24. Lynas1 says:

    Pouzar: Yessir.

    Dyin a slow death in da Peg now.

    Like so many of our people forced to leave our perfect little fog filled miserable rock of an island we love. :)

  25. Ducey says:

    mumbai max: p.s. Capgeek shows 4.782 M remaining with Shultz at 4 M.

    It also shows Joensuu at $950,000. If he was to be farmed out, only $50 K of his salary would count against the Cap.

    That would mean they could add up to $5.63 million if Schultz came in at $4 M.

  26. Lloyd B. says:

    Did Klefbom hit on Eakins wife ? That is brutal for a raw rookie. With Shultz no less. And he is blue. Something good coming our way !!

  27. Jordan says:

    Woodguy: Correct.

    We just jump into the comments section with axes and a large grindstone.

    Is that what came with the membership? I just figured it was vintage 1974 nudie mags and a case of partially-eaten cheezies…

    Seriously though – how do you use a grindstone? Is it like a whetstone?

  28. Pouzar says:

    Lynas1: Like so many of our people forced to leave our perfect little fog filled miserable rock of an island we love.

    Hate the Time Zone…but I miss it like crazy!

  29. Lynas1 says:

    Lynas1: Well, this post isn’t in “troll” font so I’m assuming you’re being serious.English language rules have no on the Rock.His name isn’t Per-Cell.

    Also to clarify Bookje (as perhaps I didn’t clarify well enough), The Per in Percell is fine, it’s the cell part which is more like the end of parcel. So say parcel with an e instead of an a. Percel.

  30. Halfwise says:

    book¡je: Lynas1, I think you mean Teddy Percell pronounces his name wrong. Percell is per-sell, it’s not debatable. There is no precedent in English for an E to sound like an A.

    That’s a hell of a claim. I do not believe that English works the way you think it works, especially with vowel sounds. Listen to David Feherty’s Northern Ireland accent for five minutes, or do the old Whale Oil Beef Hooked joke on your own.

    Lard T’underin Jaybus, b’y, give yer head a shake.

    TV announcers dutifully pronounced his name Purse’ll last year, by the way, as in “yer purse’ll fall in if you leaves it on the gunwale like that.”

  31. edmoil3 says:

    These advanced stats and sledgehammer are cool sometimes but i just think about that poor someone tracking them

  32. Pouzar says:

    Halfwise: That’s a hell of a claim. I do not believe that English works the way you think it works, especially with vowel sounds. Listen to David Feherty’s Northern Ireland accent for five minutes, or do the old Whale Oil Beef Hooked joke on your own.Lard T’underin Jaybus, b’y, give yer head a shake.TV announcers dutifully pronounced his name Purse’ll last year, by the way.

    If only there were any Irish on da Rock :P

  33. Lynas1 says:

    Pouzar: Hate the Time Zone…but I miss it like crazy!

    I never had a problem with the timezone (except most every website that requests you pick one for whatever reason doesn’t have ours). All the times on TV are given in EST so it’s just to add on 1.5 hours to whatever they say. Last time I was off the Rock I actually drove to Edmonton and stayed there a week. By the end of the week I was more than ready to get home and see the ocean again. Seriously weirds me out not being anywhere near the ocean.

  34. Henry says:

    Ducey,

    Does that include or exclude Yak’s bonuses when he scores 35 goals?

  35. Lynas1 says:

    Pouzar: If only there were any Irish on da Rock

    You’re absolutely right. The TB sports casters did get it right. Edmonton guys still working on it. Also, are you a mislocated super-Newf as well Halfwise? Or just spend a lot of time in Ft. Mac? :P

    Pouzar: If only there were any Irish on da Rock

    There’s plenty of Irish on the Rock don’t forget. There’s an entire region of the Avalon called “The Irish Loop”. Though the majority is English descended.

  36. Ducey says:

    Pouzar: Nice job again Rom….Q. Why Mueller?

    Not sure the context but if someone suggested Mueller to the Oilers I would wonder why.

    Matt Lombardi played in the same Swiss league and led it with 50 pts in 46 games. He is a C. Mueller put up 46 in 49 and is a RW. He hasn’t done much in the NHL since his rookie year in 07-08.

  37. Pouzar says:

    Lynas1,

    I remember the good ole days watching the Oilers playing in L.A. in the playoffs (remember those?) with the puck drop at 11:30 NL time. YIKES!!!!!!! Made for some lonoooooooonnng days at school the next day.

  38. Lynas1 says:

    Pouzar:
    Lynas1,

    I remember the good ole days watching the Oilers playing in L.A.in the playoffs (remember those?) with the puck drop at 11:30 NL time. YIKES!!!!!!! Made for some lonoooooooonnng days at school the next day.

    Now-a-days you can only watch them play if it’s hockey night in Canada and they happen to be on it, or you pay boat loads of money for Centre Ice. All other games are blacked out cause of stupid heads. I never get to see the Oilers play on TV. Also, last time I looked on the schedule they’re not even playing in Montreal this year so I can’t take a trip there so the missis and I can watch our favourite teams (She’s a Habs fan). Also, a lot less to get to Montreal from here :P

  39. Ducey says:

    Henry: Ducey, Does that include or exclude Yak’s bonuses when he scores 35 goals?

    Nope. If I am the GM, I am not sure I worry about that possibility too much. :)

    If it does happen I think they can roll it over into next year, when the Cap is supposed to go up a fair bit.

  40. Lois Lowe says:

    Lynas1,

    Yakimov said that he’s not in shape in comments after the game. He also said that he’s going to be in Edmonton for the rest of the summer getting ready for training camp. I’m not worried about his conditioning, though it was particularly evident last night.

  41. Pouzar says:

    Lynas1,

    Fly out to the Peg and I’ll hook you up with 2 tix behind the Oiler Bench. They play twice in WPG this year. Shitty days though ( Mon, Wed).

  42. Lynas1 says:

    Circling back to my original point of commenting today, does anyone have any insights into what the opening day roster for OKC might look like? Just curious.

  43. Lynas1 says:

    Pouzar:
    Lynas1,

    Fly out to the Peg and I’ll hook you up with 2 tix behind the Oiler Bench. They play twice in WPG this year. Shitty days though ( Mon, Wed).

    Maybe at some point. Planning a weddin’ this year though so might not be in the cards. Hopefully they play in Montreal next year. WAY easier to convince the missis to go if she’d get to see her team too :P

  44. Lynas1 says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Lynas1,

    Yakimov said that he’s not in shape in comments after the game. He also said that he’s going to be in Edmonton for the rest of the summer getting ready for training camp. I’m not worried about his conditioning, though it was particularly evident last night.

    Fair enough Lois, thanks for responding. So do you think Yakimov gets 1C, or 2C? I’m not sure how 3, 4 C get handed down. I’m guessing Ewanyk’s the perennial 4C until further notice :P

  45. Pouzar says:

    Lynas1,

    Right….Habs fan! Ouch…sorry to hear

  46. Melman says:

    For whatever intangible reason I think JJ is going to arrive as a big, nasty piece of work that other teams will hate to play against. The kid seems to really have that inner drive. Wouldn’t be surprised if he gets some games in this year when the injury bug arrives.

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pouzar:
    Nice job again Rom….

    Q. Why Mueller?

    thanks.

    Well, let’s start with the obvious. He’s a C/RW who is available. We need both.

    He’s got a track record of success in the NHL that was cut off dramatically by injury.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/is-it-time-for-colorado-avalanche-peter-mueller-to-retire/

    He is therefore dramatically undervalued at the moment. The NHL sees him as injury-trouble.

    But, he went to Europe and scored 46 points in 48 games in the Swiss league playing the full season.

    So, he’s healthy and playing well. This is kind of like Perron and concussion worries. But, the gamble is a lot smaller in that he would probably accept a one year deal and small money to prove to the NHL GMs he can play again.

  48. Lynas1 says:

    Pouzar:
    Lynas1,

    Right….Habs fan! Ouch…sorry to hear

    Nah, I don’t mind people routing for the Habs. A long and respectable tradition. Half my family is Habs, other half is Leafs. I’m the only Oilers fan. I don’t mind routing for the Leaf’s either. Used to love going to the baby leaf’s games with my grandfather at the old Memorial Stadium. Watching Kyle Wellwood, or Yanic Perrault. Used to love Perrault. Nobody dominated the dot like he did :)

  49. Henry says:

    Ducey: Nope.If I am the GM, I am not sure I worry about that possibility too much.

    If it does happen I think they can roll it over into next year, when the Cap is supposed to go up a fair bit.

    Would be sort of a nice problem to have.

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    If you look at his NHL record. You see a guy with skill and plays a possession game.

    http://www.extraskater.com/player/529/peter-mueller

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=439&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=439&withagainst=true&season=2007-13&sit=5v5

    His final NHL year looks good to me. His WOWY looks good to me.

    Looks like a guy that can play in the 2C spot in a real tight pinch, but can slide up and down the line up as needed and help push the puck and the pace.

    ———
    Neither him nor Loktionov are ideal, and neither have a history of doing heavy zone start work. But both have a history as possession players, modest boxcars. Both are available. And, both appear undervalued by the market.

    moneypuck.

  51. godot10 says:

    1) Schultz should come in under $3 million per season on a 2 year bridge deal.

    2) The Schultz criticism is over-the-top, IMHO, because he was playing far too tough minutes with subpar help. Most young D would be destroyed and crushed. Schultz will just shrug it off.

    3) The elite puck movers and transporters, Doughty, Keith, Subban, McDonagh were the difference makers in the playoffs. Schultz is tracking to be more Rafalski than Keith, but Rafalski was a really useful hockey player.

    4) Subban is going to set a new price point for top pairing D, likely at over $9 million. First pairing D are going to start at $7 million. Good ones are going to cost $8. That is why it was nuts to fret about paying Petry 4 x $5 million. It would be like Eberle’s contract, which at $6 million is going to be a screaming bargain for a 1st line RW, with Kane likely over $10 million, and Perry and Kessel over $8 million.

    5) Veteran 3rd pairing UFA D’s start at $3 million. Second pairing guys are going to start at $5 million (Kulikov is going to get this likely even with 2 RFA seasons included). First pairing guys are going to start at $7 million (Paheuf, low level 1st pairing).

  52. Lois Lowe says:

    Lynas1,

    I think Jar Jar starts as the 2C, provided Arco stays with the big club to start the season. I could see a player like Andrew Miller taking the 1C to start. Yakimov likely gets sheltered minutes at C or moves to the wing depending on his command of English and understanding of the systems play. I think by mid-season he’ll have moved back into the middle. Acton and Ewanyk will be the 3 and 4C’s for sure.

  53. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: More proof people don’t read my blog. They COME to my blog, but don’t read it

    oh i reads it !
    Retain!
    that some times is me.

    I remeber you talking about pinizotto!

    Crap had to read it 3 times.

    3rd time i did not bounce from Cap $ to sentence with wish they were older.

    IR:

    but Calgary is Knuckle dragger.
    We roll aulie on 4th wing?

  54. regwald says:

    Woodguy: Correct.

    We just jump into the comments section with axes and a large grindstone.

    Don’t forget the pitch forks and torches.

  55. Lynas1 says:

    godot10:
    1) Schultz should come in under $3 million per season on a 2 year bridge deal.

    2) The Schultz criticism is over-the-top, IMHO, because he was playing far too tough minutes with subpar help.Most young D would be destroyed and crushed.Schultz will just shrug it off.

    3) The elite puck and transporters, Doughty, Keith, Subban, McDonagh were the difference makers in the playoffs.Schultz is tracking to be more Rafalski than Keith, but Rafalski was a really useful hockey player.

    4) Subban is going to set a new price point for top pairing D, likely at over $9 million.First pairing D are going to start at $7 million.Good ones are going to cost $8.That is why it was nuts to fret about paying Petry 4 x $5 million.It would be like Eberle’s contract, which at $6 million is going to be a screaming bargain for a 1st line RW, with Kane likely over $10 million, and Perry and Kessel over $8 million.

    5) Veteran 3rd pairing UFA D’s start at $3 million.Second pairing guys are going to start at $5 million (Kulikov is going to get this likely even with 2 RFA seasons included).First pairing guys are going to start at $7 million (Paheuf, low level 1st pairing).

    Agreed on pretty much everything here. One thing I don’t think I’ll ever understand about the NHL, or pro sports in general: I don’t understand how (say in Iginla’s position) a player who’s already made WAY more money than anyone ever should, would want to go to a really good contender to win, but still demanding top dollar. I would expect to see them taking a discount on their pay to allow that contender to further strengthen its self rather than tie their hands with a bloated contract. This is of course more geared toward a salary cap league, but I don’t get it. “I wanna win, but not at the expensive of the $7 million I want vs the 4 Million they offer”. Doesn’t make a bit of sense to me.

  56. Lynas1 says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Lynas1,

    I think Jar Jar starts as the 2C, provided Arco stays with the big club to start the season. I could see a player like Andrew Miller taking the 1C to start. Yakimov likely gets sheltered minutes at C or moves to the wing depending on his command of English and understanding of the systems play. I think by mid-season he’ll have moved back into the middle. Acton and Ewanyk will be the 3 and 4C’s for sure.

    Thanks Lois. I wasn’t sure if Miller was still considered a C or not (listed as RW a lot lately) and if he was effective enough to be a top line guy in the AHL. Also, I completely forgot about Will Acton. HA!

    Thanks though for the reply

  57. Gret99zky says:

    Lynas1: Agreed on pretty much everything here.One thing I don’t think I’ll ever understand about the NHL, or pro sports in general: I don’t understand how (say in Iginla’s position) a player who’s already made WAY more money than anyone ever should, would want to go to a really good contender to win, but still demanding top dollar.I would expect to see them taking a discount on their pay to allow that contender to further strengthen its self rather than tie their hands with a bloated contract.This is of course more geared toward a salary cap league, but I don’t get it.“I wanna win, but not at the expensive of the $7 million I want vs the 4 Million they offer”.Doesn’t make a bit of sense to me.

    Good point.

    The NHLPA probably has something to say about hometown/wanna win discounts. So many of the players use each others salaries to bolster there own.

  58. Frank The Dog says:

    denny33:
    Kudos to Lois Lowe – Great Job…love the report.

    LT – great post yesterday about Petry – don’t back down on it. Oilers are treading in dangerous water with a 1 year deal. ( As Mac T himself mentioned )

    Regarding Schultz – there seems to be a massive difference between what the Oilers management see in Justin and what most of the league/fans see in Justin. ( league acknowledges his raw talent )

    If this organization runs out Justin in the top 4 in the Western Conference – we will have a tough time avoiding a lottery pick for 2015.

    Or, the massive difference is between what Justin’s worth and what he thinks he’s worth. For the first time in a while we have a competent GM who is in touch with the marketplace and is earning the respect of peers and players alike.

    Justin has tons of offensive talent but he is a horrible defender. Fortunately for him, he can look forward to a high calibre NHL coach for the coming season. Because of the impact Craig will likely have on his game, he’s probably better off with a similar bridge to Petry, for the same reasons.

    No so good for the Oil, as LT and others have pointed out, but what’s worse? If this is the Oil’s breakout year, as in challenging for the playoffs, then those two will be more inclined to stay, and MacT less inclined to replace them. Unless he has equal or better options for less money.

    Nothing personal.

  59. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lynas1: Also, last time I looked on the schedule they’re not even playing in Montreal this year so I can’t take a trip there so the missis and I can watch our favourite teams (She’s a Habs fan). Also, a lot less to get to Montreal from here

    Feb 12 Oilers @ Montreal

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/edm/edmonton-oilers

    I think they’re back to every team visiting every city at least once.

  60. B S says:

    Gret99zky,

    It’s also important to remember that the players aren’t the ones negotiating. It’s their agents. Most of these young guys have no experience bargaining or negotiating, so the leave it up to their agents to determine what’s reasonable, or what can be had on the market.

    That isn’t to say that the players don’t have an input or the final call, but Schultz likely isn’t saying he wants Webber money, his agent has probably told him he should be asking for such and such amount if he wants such and such term (e.g. 5 years, ask for $6 mill.) if he actually wants to get a specific term (e.g. 5 years $5 mil.), or maybe he’s been told he should ask for rfa years only, if he wants to command a bigger UFA paycheck in a couple of years.

    There’s no way to know what expectations, or comparisons his agent has been feeding him, or whether Schultz is looking for a big payday, or term in Edmonton (obviously he would like both, but one of these is a priority over the other).

  61. Frank The Dog says:

    dawgtoy: Please don’t jump to any conclusions about his conditioning based on summer orientation camp. They also spent the previous night “sleeping” in the wilderness. Go easy on Yak squared for now, I’m sure his conditioning will improve when he gets a full nights sleep. There is still a ways to go until camp starts, I’m sure he’ll be ready.

    Dr Drai was also a bit flat. In Russia if you sleep in a forest with bears you probably have a guard with an RPG standing watch. Ask Bryz :)

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think $3mil per on a bridge deal is what the defensively inept J Schultz is ‘worth’ at this point, but I don’t think you get his signature on a contract for anything less than $4mil per.

    Cam Fowler would seem to be a good comparable at $4mil. Similar amount of points as Schultz last season, and during his ELC, he was a poor defensive player as well.

    This player needs to take a BIG step forward defensively this season or the org will sour on him. Agree with the poster that thinks MacT is bridging both Petry and Schultz cos he still hasn’t decided if either of them are ultimately ‘keepers’

  63. denny33 says:

    russ99,

    I don’t get why everyone is so ready to give up on Schultz after 122 NHL games and 34 AHL games.
    Dump him and we’re looking for a quality puck mover all over again…
    **********************************************************************************
    I have not seen too many people advocate ‘dumping’ him…all I want is for him to be on our
    3rd pairing D – learning the NHL game – and seeing tons of PP time.

    I have no problem waiting for J to grow into the game – but I don’t want him seeing Getzlaf Kesler,Kopitar/Carter, Seguin/ Spezza all night. And the reason for that is he gets Owned. Which you would expect – given how raw he is….

    I am more than willing to be patient but it is all in the usage – hello Mr. Ramsay.

  64. Halfwise says:

    Lynas1: You’re absolutely right. The TB sports casters did get it right. Edmonton guys still working on it.

    Also, are you a mislocated super-Newf as well Halfwise? Or just spend a lot of time in Ft. Mac? There’s plenty of Irish on the Rock don’t forget. There’s an entire region of the Avalon called “The Irish Loop”. Though the majority is English descended.

    Just a Mainlander, me son.
    Lived in Ft Mac for a decade, and get back there and also to St John’s once a year or so. I think people in general have no idea how Newfoundlanders made it possible for the oil sands to develop, specifically the timely (for Syncrude, not for the staff) closure of Come By Chance Refinery just as Syncrude was staffing up and needed experienced operators around 1976-77.

  65. Oilanderp says:

    Lynas1,

    As a dislocated and malappropriated Newf, I would just like to confirm this pronunciation declaration. Everyone and their dog whence came Teddy would pronounce it as PURSE-ull, as in “Buddy that Purse’ll really slow ya down. You should leave it here on da bench and next time try hittin’ somethin’ for once.”

    Lynas’ and Halfwise’s suggestions regarding this are not opinion, they are fact.

  66. denny33 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Neither him nor Loktionov are ideal, and neither have a history of doing heavy zone start work. But both have a history as possession players, modest boxcars. Both are available. And, both appear undervalued by the market.
    moneypuck.
    ******************************************************************************
    Well put…seems like a decent bet, especially given our lack of C….

  67. Ducey says:

    Because the Oilers will not make the playoffs, here is the 2015 early draft list

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9556

    Besides McDavid there are a few interesting names on the list. In the WHL there is a Debrusk and a 6’3″ C named Adam Musil – brother to David. 29 pts in 60 games with Red Deer last year.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw, does anyone think it would be a good idea for MacT to wait to see what DeKeyser signs for in DET before coming to terms with J Schultz?

    In terms of highly touted prospects coming out of college, DeKeyser has certainly outplayed Justin thus far on the defensive side of the puck IMO. If DD comes in at $4mil per, I would certainly use that as a wedge to drive the price down on Schultz.

    Unfortunately for Schultz, the crux of these negotiations isn’t that he’s not a supremely talented offensive defenceman. But the reality is, he’s an extremely poor defensive defenceman at the moment as well. His liabilities HAVE to be stacked alongside his assets to arrive at fair value and I’m sure that’s an uncomfortable topic for all involved.

  69. Oilanderp says:

    Justin Schultz is Sammy Gags on D. I don’t want to flush the guy but my god man, play some D will ya? 3rd pairing, with PP time. Is he Marc Andre Bergeron? We don’t know yet. I’d suggest assuming so until proven otherwise.

  70. One-Timer says:

    Lynas1: Agreed on pretty much everything here.One thing I don’t think I’ll ever understand about the NHL, or pro sports in general: I don’t understand how (say in Iginla’s position) a player who’s already made WAY more money than anyone ever should, would want to go to a really good contender to win, but still demanding top dollar.I would expect to see them taking a discount on their pay to allow that contender to further strengthen its self rather than tie their hands with a bloated contract.This is of course more geared toward a salary cap league, but I don’t get it.“I wanna win, but not at the expensive of the $7 million I want vs the 4 Million they offer”.Doesn’t make a bit of sense to me.

    Taking your example out of the NHL-career context a bit, it sounds like “Do I want a Stanley Cup ring, or another 3 million dollars?”

    You probably take the extra cash and hope your team wins anyway!

  71. Numenius says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    In terms of highly touted prospects coming out of college, DeKeyser has certainly outplayed Justin thus far on the defensive side of the puck IMO. If DD comes in at $4mil per, I would certainly use that as a wedge to drive the price down on Schultz.

    It’s not clear that Dekeyser outplayed Schultz defensively this year. Not by much anyway.

    Dekeyser
    CorsiON -3.50
    CorsiRel -10.30
    Qualcomp(CorsiRel) 0.84
    ZoneStart 51.10
    P/60 0.77

    Schultz
    CorsiOn -14.83
    CorsiRel -4.90
    Qualcomp(CorsiRel) 0.40
    Zone Start 46.40
    P/60 0.86

    Dekeyser’s CorsiRel is much worse than Schultz’s and Schultz’s CorsiOn is much worse the Dekeyser’s. Schultz also had worse zone starts and played on a worse team.

    I don’t think those numbers allow us to conclude that Dekeyser was better defensively than Schultz.

    They do seems to show that Schultz’s contract should be in the neighbourhood of Dekeyser’s, though.

  72. One-Timer says:

    To give Tambo some credit…

    * shields face from flying tomatoes *

    Aside from setting up a real procurement system which is paying dividends already with several young players, that $6M flat rate for the top line is just going to look better and better. Next year’s maximum salary will be close to $15M, and some player’s agent is going to think he’s worth it. Meanwhile, the oil have a bonafide top line locked in for $18M.

    Do we have to wait for Ebs to get shoulder surgery before calling them the Bionic Line?

  73. Frank The Dog says:

    So we have a new Oilers dance move, per David Staples:
    “Nurse hammered a few guys so hard that a new dance move was developed during the contest, the Nurse Shuffle, where players are blasted into the boards, spin in circles, then wobble off the ice not sure of their own first name.” :)

    Full blog is here:
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/07/07/with-leon-draisaitl-jujhar-khaira-and-bogdan-yakimov-the-edmonton-oilers-are-gearing-up-to-play-some-heavy-heavy-hockey/

  74. Tarkus says:

    Ducey:
    Because the Oilers will not make the playoffs, here is the 2015 early draft list

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9556

    Besides McDavid there are a few interesting names on the list.In the WHL there is a Debrusk and a 6’3″ C named Adam Musil – brother to David. 29 pts in 60 games with Red Deer last year.

    Meanwhile, check out the International list. Fourth from the bottom of that list is one Colin Fontana, currently the frontrunner for the Human Flagpole Award. Makes Marincin look like a sumo wrestler.

  75. Numenius says:

    rickithebear: oh i reads it !
    Retain!
    that some times is me.

    I remeber you talking about pinizotto!

    Crap had to read it 3 times.

    3rd time i did not bounce from Cap $ to sentence with wish they were older.

    IR:

    but Calgary is Knuckle dragger.
    We roll aulie on 4th wing?

    Smeagol? Is that you?

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    Numenius, thanks for drilling into that.

    Do you see the difference in QualComp btw the two as fairly negligible?

  77. danny says:

    The timezone difference between AB and NL never really bothered me in my youth. I always managed to watch the ITV broadcasts, and go to school in the morning without it fazing me.

    Now that I’m in my late thirties, oh boy… 11:30 start times, and a full workday ahead are daunting.

  78. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw, the Vollman Sledgehammer describes Justin Schultz as a “Shut-Down” defenceman.

    Glad I wasn’t eating anything when I read that.

    DeKeyser closer to blue than Schultz btw. Sorry, I prefer visual representations of data over raw text!

  79. G Money says:

    Frank The Dog,

    Yeah, Staples was on fire with that post. He’s usually not that creative a writer. I particularly liked his line about Dr. Drai’s passing: “Those backhand passes were so sweet, you’ll put on five pounds just watching them.”

  80. Numenius says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Numenius, thanks for drilling into that.

    Do you see the difference in QualComp btw the two as fairly negligible?

    Yes. In fact, Schultz’s actual competition may have been tougher, since his QualComp (CorsiON) (i.e. absolute Corsi) was significantly higher than Dekeyser’s.

    Schultz
    QualComp (CorsiON) 1.05

    Dekeyser
    QualComp (CorsiON) -0.29

    This is what you’d expect, given that the West is a better conference.

  81. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Btw, the Vollman Sledgehammer describes Justin Schultz as a “Shut-Down” defenceman.Glad I wasn’t eating anything when I read that.

    Have to have the accompanying BBB. He was in a role way over his head which has been the #1 issue in his development imo.

  82. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Btw, the Vollman Sledgehammer describes Justin Schultz as a “Shut-Down” defenceman.

    Glad I wasn’t eating anything when I read that.

    DeKeyser closer to blue than Schultz btw. Sorry, I prefer visual representations of data over raw text!

    That’s not what it says.

    It says that that is how he was “used” by the coach.

  83. Numenius says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Btw, the Vollman Sledgehammer describes Justin Schultz as a “Shut-Down” defenceman.

    Glad I wasn’t eating anything when I read that.

    DeKeyser closer to blue than Schultz btw. Sorry, I prefer visual representations of data over raw text!

    Haha.

    Yeah, I wish I knew how to put a Vollman in the comments section.

  84. Pouzar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s not what it says.It says that that is how he was “used” by the coach.

    this

  85. Bag of Pucks says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s not what it says.

    It says that that is how he was “used” by the coach.

    Actually, it says BOTH of those things.

  86. Woodguy says:

    Jordan: Is that what came with the membership?I just figured it was vintage 1974 nudie mags and a case of partially-eaten cheezies…

    Seriously though – how do you use a grindstone?Is it like a whetstone?

    Yes, but its dry, not whet.

  87. Numenius says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    DeKeyser closer to blue than Schultz btw.

    That’s only in terms of their CorsiON (Dek -3.50, Sch -14.83)

    Schultz’s CorsiRel is closer to blue than Dekeyser’s (Dek -10.30, Sch -4.90)

    When relative to the rest of their respective team, Schultz’s Corsi was better and Dekeyser’s was worse.

  88. Bag of Pucks says:

    Numenius: Yes. In fact, Schultz’s actual competition may have been tougher, since his QualComp (CorsiON) (i.e. absolute Corsi) was significantly higher than Dekeyser’s.

    Schultz
    QualComp (CorsiON) 1.05

    Dekeyser
    QualComp (CorsiON) -0.29

    This is what you’d expect, given that the West is a better conference.

    And Babcock being a better coach than Eakins…

  89. Bag of Pucks says:

    Numenius: That’s only in terms of their CorsiON (Dek -3.50, Sch -14.83)

    Schultz’s CorsiRel is closer to blue than Dekeyser’s (Dek -10.30, Sch -4.90)

    So when relative to the rest of their teams, Schultz’s Corsi was better and Dekeyser’s was worse.

    Which should be expected right, given that DET has a more veteran, proficient D corps than EDM?

  90. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bag of Pucks: Actually, it says BOTH of those things.

    No. Not close.

    The Vollman graph is simply an empirical record of what happened, where and when a coach plays a player and their success in that spot.

    In no way does it say because a player is used a particular way, he IS his usage. That’s absurd.

    It’s equivalent to mistaking “acting like an x” to “being an x”

  91. Factotum Pochemuchka says:

    And Danny DeKeyser has been a presenter at the NHL awards, so there’s that.

  92. Frank The Dog says:

    G Money:
    Frank The Dog,

    Yeah, Staples was on fire with that post.He’s usually not that creative a writer.I particularly liked his line about Dr. Drai’s passing: “Those backhand passes were so sweet, you’ll put on five pounds just watching them.”

    This too. But the Nurse Shuffle is a keeper that I’d love to see in the NHL. Nurse should probably take ice fighting lessons to because I’m sure quite a few will answer the bell.

  93. One-Timer says:

    Frank The Dog: This too. But the Nurse Shuffle is a keeper that I’d love to see in the NHL.Nurse should probably take ice fighting lessons to because I’m sure quite a few will answer the bell.

    That’s one good reason to keep Gadzooks on the roster. I remember him giving Yak some pointers once last year while they were both in the box.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: No. Not close.

    The Vollman graph is simply an empirical record of what happened, where and when a coach plays a player and their success in that spot.

    In no way does it say because a player is used a particular way, he IS his usage. That’s absurd.

    It’s equivalent to mistaking “acting like an x” to “being an x”

    OMG, relax with the pedantic posts.

    It says ‘shutdown’ under his name, so literally, the site does say ‘both’ things.

    I’m not suggesting the vollman graphs are anything other than ‘player usage charts’

    It’s just funny to see the words ‘shut down’ anywhere close to the words ‘Justin Schult’z’ Again, it was a J O K E.

  95. Ducey says:

    Frank The Dog: This too. But the Nurse Shuffle is a keeper that I’d love to see in the NHL. Nurse should probably take ice fighting lessons to because I’m sure quite a few will answer the bell.

    Nurse was noted to be fighting the toughest guys in the OHL in his draft year. 116 PIM’s says he can handle himself.

  96. Oilanderp says:

    Does anyone know a site where I can look up a player (say Marc-Andre Bergeron) and see his average TOI in his career? Also, how far back do Qual Comp stats go?

  97. B S says:

    One-Timer,

    I always figured they should hire BigMac as a fighting coach for the players, not so that they WILL fight, but so that they CAN hold their own if it comes to it. I seem to recall from early Oil Change episodes that he worked a lot on his strategy and technique, so he seemed to have a system down that should be translatable among players (too bad he never put that kind of effort into learning to skate).

    Apologies for the capitals, but not sure how else to emphasize words here.

  98. regwald says:

    630 Ched renewed for 6 more years was announcement on Oilers Now.

  99. B S says:

    Ducey: Nurse was noted to be fighting the toughest guys in the OHL in his draft year.116 PIM’s says he can handle himself.

    Against kids. Nurse might be a big guy, but I’m pretty sure an also-ran like Hordichuck could clean his clock in a heartbeat. It’s the main reason I’m reticent about him getting a 9 game look at the start of the season, as that is usually when the goons go head-hunting and lots of fights are picked until it costs their teams enough games to send the meatheads back to the minors. Especially with Calgary and Vancouver early on the schedule.

  100. justDOit says:

    B S,

    Good idea, but I’m not sure SMac really knows how to fight that well. Being that much larger than anyone else is pretty much all the advantage he needs. Someone like Mike Brown, on the other fist…

  101. rickithebear says:

    Numenius: Haha.

    Yeah, I wish I knew how to put a Vollman in the comments section.

    I tried for 4 years.
    You guys did not Get it.
    But I used real results
    Goals.
    from 2007-008 on.

    1 to 4th Comp
    1st o 4th team
    6 groups of zone start.
    break them into the comp and team into upper, Mid,lower,
    resulting 864 equal portions.
    Only I stated an average for the 864 equal portions
    and compared the players performance to it
    Player in upper 1st comp with lower 4th teamates in 45% zs start should get
    X gF
    X GA
    X GD
    It bothered me that people could not visualize that 3d curve in there brain.
    I thought it is so simple!
    It is easy to see.
    Take the average.

    What pissed me was i wanted to define GA, GF, GD
    which required a 4th plane.

    This statement made me get it.
    .
    Comp on X axis
    Team on Y axis
    Zone start on Z axis
    populate as many sets of data
    for given situation

    So
    3 deminsional tables of
    GF
    GA
    GD.
    for 5 outer positions.
    LW; C; RW; LD; RD

    Do a slice thru by a players ZS gradient.
    take the data near his comp/team
    for
    GA
    GF
    GD

    you get a comparitive number (expected) for that situation based on history.
    in
    GFbubble
    GA bubble
    GD bubble
    then compare his bubbles to that.

    Not an average of 864 sections
    that given situations expected results as a bubble.
    6 vollman’s charts
    for that ZS
    Expected GF
    ExpectedGA
    expected GD
    Players GF
    Players GA
    Players GD
    graphically represented so you guys can see.

    .

  102. Woodguy says:

    regwald: Don’t forget the pitch forks and torches.

    And excellent shoes to help us run players out town

  103. G Money says:

    Oilanderp,

    Not sure about TOI. I end up downloading Vollman’s spreadsheets for stats analysis. That way its easy to calculate things like:

    MAB
    Career TOI: 8702 mins (145 hrs 2 mins)
    Season avg TOI: 870.2 mins (10 seasons, duh)
    Game (career) avg TOI: 17:46 per game
    Game (career) peak season TOI: 21:14 in 2005-06

  104. B S says:

    justDOit:
    B S,

    Good idea, but I’m not sure SMac really knows how to fight that well. Being that much larger than anyone else is pretty much all the advantage he needs. Someone like Mike Brown, on the other fist…

    I haven’t taken the tale of the tape, but I don’t think Ivanans gave up much on MacIntyre and that was a schooling. And I can’t really recall the last time MacIntyre lost a fight (probably to Boogard, RIP). Some players are brawlers (Hendricks comes to mind) jumping in and dropping the gloves, but BigMac always seemed to take his time once the gloves went down, measured his distance, tried to tie up their dominant hand. I think he had a pretty good handle on how to fight.

  105. regwald says:

    Woodguy: And excellent shoes to help us run players out town

    And don’t forget the comb #standbymereference

  106. spoiler says:

    Stunning start to Brazil vs. Germany.

  107. Oilanderp says:

    G Money,

    Tanks mang.

  108. One-Timer says:

    Jeebus.
    It looks like Brazil is playing two men short.
    Total humiliation.

  109. Woodguy says:

    I’m surprised that no one has commented on the fact that MacT answered the burning question about Jultz for us.

    Burning Question: “Holy crap the verbal coming out of the Oilers is that Jultz is Dman Jesus, are they blind?”

    Answer: MacT: “That’s still ongoing. I think that both sides fully expect to get a deal. We want to treat Justin very very fairly. He’s working his way through the system. I guess at this point that’s probably the friction point. When you compare him to guys on our team, where he fits in is not going to be entirely reflective of our value of him, it’s more a reflection of the system and where he is in the system.”

    Let me break it down into some Coles’s Notes:

    1)
    MacT: “where he fits in is not going to be entirely reflective of our value of him”

    CN: “we talk very nice about him and think he’ll be great but he got his head kicked in the first 2 years. I don’t pay for head kicked in

    2)

    MacT: “He’s working his way through the system. I guess at this point that’s probably the friction point.”

    CN: He’s 3rd pairing on a decent D corps and we’re finally decent. He’s played more like a 2/3 due to our shitty depth but he’s not getting paid like one yet because he hasn’t beat that level of competition”

    Yay!

    MacT still believes in him but he hasn’t shown anything yet. In order to get paid, he’s gonna have to show it.

    I now think that Petry might hang around this year and MacT will be watching both very closely.

    I don’t think he mind is entirely made up.

    Loving me some MacT about this.

  110. B S says:

    Woodguy,

    I think the Oilers have had a fairly good eye on what Schultz is, and what he could be, likely better than most of the hyperboles thrown around here.

    based on TOI Schultz was the Oilers top Dman last year, not Petry, not Marincin. He was thrown to the wolves, in the Pacific Division, where the Wolves are Dire and starving, and (predictably) he was eaten alive. He got pushed around, caught deep in the wrong end of the ice, and with his pants down in all three zones, but he also made good defensive plays at times, and by my eye his coverage and reads were as good as Petry’s, he just didn’t have the experience to cover his ass when he screwed up, while Ference was still getting back across the red line. I will also say that maybe my glasses were rose-coloured, but I don’t recall him ever lagging on a backcheck (too far away to make a difference, or covering the wrong player yes, but he seemed to be trying to skate back to the play)

    Your inferences may vary but I think this treatment was intentional and in full knowledge that Schultz wasn’t our best Dman (remember, MacT was never shy to throw kids in the deep end, and now he’s Eakins spirit animal). They wanted to see what he could do against toughs, and playing 20+ minutes every night. and maybe to show him how far behind he still is in this league. Whether he learned those lessons only time will tell.

  111. Jordan says:

    Woodguy,

    Huh. That’s not how I read that.

    My thinking was that he was saying more about him still being an RFA, and that “the system” is set up so that RFAs don’t earn as much as UFAs, so the Oilers weren’t going to pay him UFA money for RFA years.

    I really hope you’re right though, and they are being more thoughtful about the results side of things. While my reading would still be a good position for this team moving forwards, them being sure to use the “Pendergast Verbal” on their players in public and being well aware of their actual value would be even better.

    The fact that there is enough generality in the comments to interperet it differently is… well amazing in and of itself. Having a GM who can talk out of both sides of his mouth at once instead of the guy who’s terrified to open his mouth is a huge improvement.

  112. WeirsBeard says:

    Woodguy:
    I’m surprised that no one has commented on the fact that MacT answered the burning question about Jultz for us.

    Burning Question:“Holy crap the verbal coming out of the Oilers is that Jultz is Dman Jesus, are they blind?”

    Answer:MacT: “That’s still ongoing. I think that both sides fully expect to get a deal. We want to treat Justin very very fairly. He’s working his way through the system. I guess at this point that’s probably the friction point. When you compare him to guys on our team, where he fits in is not going to be entirely reflective of our value of him, it’s more a reflection of the system and where he is in the system.”

    Let me break it down into some Coles’s Notes:

    1)
    MacT: “where he fits in is not going to be entirely reflective of our value of him”

    CN: “we talk very nice about him and think he’ll be great but he got his head kicked in the first 2 years.I don’t pay for head kicked in

    2)

    MacT: “He’s working his way through the system. I guess at this point that’s probably the friction point.”

    CN: He’s 3rd pairing on a decent D corps and we’re finally decent.He’s played more like a 2/3 due to our shitty depth but he’s not getting paid like one yet because he hasn’t beat that level of competition”

    Yay!

    MacT still believes in him but he hasn’t shown anything yet.In order to get paid, he’s gonna have to show it.

    I now think that Petry might hang around this year and MacT will be watching both very closely.

    I don’t think he mind is entirely made up.

    Loving me some MacT about this.

    Yeah, I took MacT to mean they view him as a Yandle. More valuable than a 3rd pairing at ES would suggest. He also knows how important he is within the room, which we can’t.

    But I don’t think MacT wants to pay him for either points or his role as Coffey to the cluster.

  113. gd says:

    The only way Germany can blow this game is if they put Gary Unger on the pitch.

  114. Henry says:

    Woodguy,

    I think you are exactly right about this. ‘Core’ in this case doesn’t mean 6yrs @ $6M yet. It means ‘we aren’t going to trade him’.

  115. gd says:

    Woodguy:
    I’m surprised that no one has commented on the fact that MacT answered the burning question about Jultz for us.

    Burning Question:“Holy crap the verbal coming out of the Oilers is that Jultz is Dman Jesus, are they blind?”

    Answer:MacT: “That’s still ongoing. I think that both sides fully expect to get a deal. We want to treat Justin very very fairly. He’s working his way through the system. I guess at this point that’s probably the friction point. When you compare him to guys on our team, where he fits in is not going to be entirely reflective of our value of him, it’s more a reflection of the system and where he is in the system.”

    Let me break it down into some Coles’s Notes:

    1)
    MacT: “where he fits in is not going to be entirely reflective of our value of him”

    CN: “we talk very nice about him and think he’ll be great but he got his head kicked in the first 2 years.I don’t pay for head kicked in

    2)

    MacT: “He’s working his way through the system. I guess at this point that’s probably the friction point.”

    CN: He’s 3rd pairing on a decent D corps and we’re finally decent.He’s played more like a 2/3 due to our shitty depth but he’s not getting paid like one yet because he hasn’t beat that level of competition”

    Yay!

    MacT still believes in him but he hasn’t shown anything yet.In order to get paid, he’s gonna have to show it.

    I now think that Petry might hang around this year and MacT will be watching both very closely.

    I don’t think he mind is entirely made up.

    Loving me some MacT about this.

    I am very encouraged by MacT’s resolve on this matter. The only two guys who can hold the Oilers hostage are signed for the next 6 years. This offseason they have finally achieved reasonable org depth at each position, so they no longer have to way overpay non-elite players.

    I hope they sign Schultz to a 2 year deal, so they can spread out the timing of the decisions on him and Petry. At this point it would be awesome if one of them or any of the other guys like Yak, blow up so much that they are worth $6Mill a year. I don’t think Bergevin is that angry that he was this wrong on Subban.

  116. VanOil says:

    Where does this put Schultz’s spot in the line up next year?

    I would go with;
    Nitikin-Petry ~ a weak unproven top pairing.
    Ferrence-Fayane ~ experienced shut down pair, is Ferrence still up for the task? Especially behind a weak top pair.
    Marincin-Schultz ~ an awful young and inexperienced pair but could be OK in a sheltered role.

    I expect;
    Nitikin-Fayne ~ Both over there heads. Welcome to the Oilers.
    Marincin-Petry ~ it worked before in a small sample size.
    Ferrence-Schultz ~ We know this doesn’t work. Does Eakins? Will Ramsay?

    If Schultz is on the 1st PP, and he will be, can we have someone other than Yak covering the point. I want Yak on the 1st PP but I don’t think he should be covering for Schultz’s shockingly poor ability to hold the line.

  117. RexLibris says:

    You could say that Germany really waxed Brazil. *ba-dum-ching*

  118. vinotintazo says:

    I expect;
    Nitikin-Fayne ~ Both over there heads. Welcome to the Oilers.
    Marincin-Petry ~ it worked before in a small sample size.
    Ferrence-Schultz ~ We know this doesn’t work. Does Eakins? Will Ramsay?

    Ference-Schultz didnt work.

    I’d rather have
    Nikitin-Fayne (toughest match-ups)
    Ference-Petry
    Marincin-Schultz (sheltered) and more time to Schultz in the PP.

  119. PaperDesigner says:

    It’s almost like Oilers management is trying to WILL Schultz into being a top pairing defenceman.

    I suppose it might be.a case where they feel from managing him directly that he has the tools to be a top pairing guy, but the conspiracy theorist in me wonders if they think they have a Jack Johnson on their hands, and need to pump him up verbally as much as possible so they can deal him after a subpar season in which he puts up a ton of powerplay points to a sucker organization that is against advanced stats.

    It would be hilarious to see them deal Schultz for Bennet, and watch him flounder at even strength for a decade down the highway.

    That said, it’s too early to say he is that. He has less than two full years of experience in the NHL, and his struggles may simply be those of an inexperienced player asked to do too much. It’s not like we haven’t seen that before. The telling sign will be if his even strength play improves over the next two years.

  120. B S says:

    VanOil,

    I’m pretty sure Schultz was covering point on the PP. And didn’t yak get kicked to the 2nd pp, because Eakins? The problem on the PP wasn’t Schultz or Yak, it was that it was 1-3-1, where Schultz (less than 200 games as an NHL Dman) was the 1, and kept getting pressured by PKers with his only outlet being around the boards, or across the ice. Considering Kreuger never had that Shorty problem, I feel pretty confident in saying that the poor play on the PP rests primarily on Eakins. Hopefully Ramsey will fix it.

  121. OilClog says:

    vinotintazo: Ference-Schultz didnt work.

    I’d rather have
    Nikitin-Fayne (toughest match-ups)
    Ference-Petry
    Marincin-Schultz (sheltered) and more time to Schultz in the PP.

    If that was the case I’d rather have Klef working with Schultz as his game style better suits what Jultz does, Jultz has zero awareness on the oh shit they got the puck! I better protect the net like a shark on cheesecake!

    Maricins play will stunt severely if partner with Schultz, Petry takes a lot of pressure off his partner, except for his Niinama(sp) moments.. Man he was good though.

    If all things were fair an equal Ference probably ends up 7th unless he starts shattering fellow teammates faces. There has to be some sort of trade coming

    So many useful pieces out there still, Winnick, Penner, Moss, Ott, Roy.. Spots can quickly be filled for the next 82-164 games while those picks marinate.

    If Jultz, and Petry both show up and out perform Nikita.. I don’t see the Oilers retaining the Motherland first.. Well hopefully.

    MacT is looking big still for a true C, better then Nuge now. And a top dog D. He knows the value of this, he coached this once, he’ll find it.

    I hope Montreal and Subban’s war get very long and very loud..

  122. Woodguy says:

    Why are you guys putting Marincin on the 3rd pair?

    He had a +17 RelCor playing the toughs last year and there is a very good argument to be made that he helped Petry’s number a lot.

    He’s the goods.

    Also, Ference should be only above 3rd pair in an emergency.

    Nikitin-Fayne
    Marincin-Petry
    Ference-Jultz

  123. Woodguy says:

    B S,

    I think that Eakins played Jultz in the 2nd pair w/ Nultz and then Ference because he was (correctly) his best option.

    There were a lot of bad Dmen here last year and Belov was good but had side burns and was under utilized.

  124. Ice Sage says:

    gd: The only way Germany can blow this game is if they put Gary Unger on the pitch.

    RexLibris: You could say that Germany really waxed Brazil. *ba-dum-ching*

    Smoothe!

    Stay classy Brazil – you’re better than Vancouver

  125. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think Schultz’ potential ceiling is a Duncan Keith type defenceman.

    Keith struggled on the defensive side until his 3rd full season in the league. I think he’s also been helped tremendously by having a solid defensive compliment in Seabrook. Hopefully MacT’s found that compliment this season with one of the incoming vets.

    Schultz is smaller than Keith and Keith is a chippy, dirty, mean bastard when he needs to be to make up for the fact he’s not huge by modern D standards. If I’m Schultz, I would take a 3 game suspension for hi-sticking someone in the chops early in the season, to give myself that extra split second when backpedaling to retrieve a dump into the corner.

    Schultz has all the physical tools to be Keith redux. If he got himself on Sports Center looking like a loose cannon with his stick, that would pay serious dividends imo. Skilled players are more effective with time and space. Justin should ‘carve’ out some for himself.

  126. nycoil says:

    My friend who works for the Abbotsford Flames affiliate who is a Canucks fan played golf with Schultz last month; he said he bugged him that he should have signed with Vancouver. I’m not going to say what Justin said in response because a) I have no credibility on a “he said” comment and b) because it is irrelevant.

    I just hope MacT does the right thing here but the Petry deal isn’t all that encouraging. It’s hard when the salary pyramid on a team makes so little sense. I know the UFA vs. RFA argument but how do you tell Petry he gets less than Nikitin or Ference. How do you tell Schultz he gets less than Ference? How are you ever going to re-sign Perron for less than $5m per when Pouliot makes too much at $4m? And then you have Yakupov next summer.

    I’m worried. The team has cap room now but this whole rebuild goes to shit if the salary structure is broken. And I think it is precarious.

    Why would Schultz sign long term for less than Nikitin’s cap hit?

    If MacT really wants a top-end at $7m per and lower end at $1m structure, why in Gord’s name is he at everyone between $3m and $4.5m on the blue? Nikitin, Fayne, Ference, Petry, Schultz all in that range with only Marincin and Aulie below that. This salary pyramid could be disastrous if he doesn’t fix it.

  127. Bag of Pucks says:

    nycoil:
    How do you tell Schultz he gets less than Ference?

    Easy. 3rd year pros don’t get paid like 15 year vets / Stanley Cup winners.

    If Schultz can’t ‘deal with that’ than ‘deal him’

    Btw. I think in sports, as in life, keeping up with the joneses is a self defeating exercise. There’s always someone with more if you insist on comparing yourself. Get something that’s fair and equitable for both parties, and then live with it, hopefully with peace of mind and happiness.

    Contracts are always a mine field. Ebs and Hall look like bargains right now. Tons are arguing the Nuge is overpaid? The reality is it’s a risk anytime you throw big money at still developing talent.

    Bottom line, we don’t seem to have any Yashin or DiPietro albatross’ on the team, so I think mgmt is doing ok on the compensation side.

  128. Ca$h-Money! says:

    nycoil,

    Totally unfair. Tell us what he said. We trust you.

    Woodguy,

    The problem is that we all agree that Ference is our worst LD option, and Schultz is our worst RD option, but we also recall them being very very bad together.

    Realistically I’d rather see Klefbom/Schultz with Ference in the pressbox, despite the fact that Klefbom is yet another young D on a team that needs experience. My reasoning goes like this:

    1. Ference and Schultz are awful together
    2. Marincin/Petry and Nikitin/Fayne should be the top 4, in whatever way you want to mash them together
    3. Klefbom individually ranks about equal as far as I’m concerned with Ference as of right now.
    4. Klefbom seems like a better style match for Schultz.

  129. Doomoil says:

    nycoil:
    My friend who works for the Abbotsford Flames affiliate who is a Canucks fan played golf with Schultz last month; he said he bugged him that he should have signed with Vancouver. I’m not going to say what Justin said in response because a) I have no credibility on a “he said” comment and b) because it is irrelevant.

    I just hope MacT does the right thing here but the Petry deal isn’t all that encouraging. It’s hard when the salary pyramid on a team makes so little sense. I know the UFA vs. RFA argument but how do you tell Petry he gets less than Nikitin or Ference. How do you tell Schultz he gets less than Terence? How are you ever going to re-sign Perron for less than $5m per when Pouliot makes too much at $4m? And then you have Yakupov next summer.

    I’m worried. The team has cap room now but this whole rebuild goes to shit if the salary structure is broken. And I think it is precarious.

    Why would Schultz sign long term for less than Nikitin’s cap hit?

    If MacT really wants a top-end at $7m per and lower end at $1m structure, why in Gord’s name is he at everyone between $3m and $4.5m on the blue? Nikitin, Fayne, Ference, Petry, Schultz all in that range with only Marincin and Aulie below that. This salary pyramid could be disastrous if he doesn’t fix it.

    You tell them they get less because they do. Comparing strictly UFA years to RFA years is nonsensical.

  130. B S says:

    Woodguy,

    EV. TOI/Game
    Schultz 18:55
    Ference 17:48
    Petry 17:41
    Marincin 16:19 (caveat, his Ice time was likely much greater at the end of the season than when he started)

    Useage suggests that Schultz and Ference are 1st pairing (though Petry had tougher zone starts than Schultz, Marincin was roughly the same). On most teams your 1st pairing sees the most ice time (and would also face the toughest competition, but I think most of us would agree that’s probably not what happened), that’s why I refer to Schultz as our #1 Dman.

    Not necessarily related to useage of Schultz, but looking over the “possession” stats, that I admittedly remain unconvinced by with regards to Dmen, the difference in corsi (and Corsi Rel) is like 4% and even less in Fenwick stats, and in shots against (the only part other than goals that should matter when defending in my opinion) Schultz had 30 more in 6 fewer games, but with much more ice time (it’s worth noting that compared with Petry he was also on the ice for few shots for despite the increased icetime, and likely comparing well with the “possession” stats)

  131. Lynas1 says:

    Oilanderp:
    Lynas1,

    As a dislocatedand malappropriated Newf, I would just like to confirm this pronunciation declaration.Everyone and their dog whence came Teddy would pronounce it as PURSE-ull, as in “Buddy that Purse’ll really slow ya down.You should leave it here on da bench and next time try hittin’ somethin’ for once.”

    Lynas’ and Halfwise’s suggestions regarding this are not opinion, they are fact.

    Thanks for the support :)

  132. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    I think a big reason Jultz & Ference were so awful was who they played against.

    They got killed.

    They should do better with heavy OZS and easier minutes.

    I hope.

  133. B S says:

    Edit: my point in the last paragraph was that I don’t see the difference between Petry and Schultz as being significant last season, especially with the possession stats. Schultz is younger, faster, with a better shot and more upside, assuming he doesn’t get an attitude problem (something Petry has avoided so far), I can’t blame MacT for valuing him over Petry seeing as Schultz is almost there anyway.

  134. Bag of Pucks says:

    Hockey is supposed to be entertainment.

    So how’s this for an entertaining way to decide the salary structure of your D corps?

    You announce a set amount for total compensation of all starting D at say $21mil.

    Then you throw all the candidates for starting D into the Octagon.

    Compensation for the last 6 is set as follows, depending on where/when in the pecking order they’re carried out:

    6th last – 1mil
    5th last – 2 mil
    4th last – 3 mil
    3rd last – 4 mil
    2nd last – 5 mil
    Last man standing – 6 mil

    I’d pay to watch that! Would certainly tell us who our meanest SOB D is : )

    Pronger in his prime wins this every time. Pronger v Chara would be epic

  135. nycoil says:

    Yes, I mentioned the RFA vs UFA thing already. I get it. I am saying that when it comes to the next deal it is going to come back to bite them.

    In two years Petry, Perron, Schultz, Yakupov may be gone unless other trades happen.

  136. Factotum Pochemuchka says:

    rickithebear,

    “You guys did not Get it.”

    It must be so annoying to be surrounded by such mental midgets.

    Have you heard of Edward Tufte? It seems that some other method of communication besides written English might serve you better when trying to convey your brilliant ideas to the hoi polloi.

    You should really have your own site. Speaking for myself, I would visit often. Honestly, I would. Especially if you became a Tufte acolyte. Cheers.

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