THE WALKABOUTS

All I ask of the Edmonton Oilers is that they remain risk averse in the top 100 selections. The club was off the grid in 2009, but in 2010 things changed and a nice run ensued. What about 2014?

STU MACGREGOR’S WALKABOUT RECORD

2008 Oilers draft

  • Jordan Eberle selected #22 overall, ranked #29 (attended combine)
  • Johan Motin selected #103 overall, unranked (attended combine)
  • Phil Cornet selected #133 overall,unranked
  • Teemu Hartikainen selected #163 overall, unranked
  • Jordan Bendfeld selected #193 overall, unranked

The first MBS draft is kind of a mush draft because the club had no 2nd or 3rd rd pick, meaning they could grab Eberle and then were looking at leftovers from the heart of 2008′s list. Still, I don’t think there’s a lot to quarrel over in this draft. In the one spot they could get a player, they got a top drawer forward.

2009 Oilers draft

  • Magnus Paajarvi selected #10 overall, ranked #10 (attended combine)
  • Anton Lander selected #40 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Troy Hesketh selected #71 overall, unranked
  • Cameron Abney selected #82 overall, unranked
  • Kyle Bigos selected #99 overall, unranked
  • Toni Rajala selected #101 overall, ranked #50 (attended combine)
  • Olivier Roy selected #133 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)

This reminds me of the old Prendergast drafts (and a little of the 2012 draft) in that they grabbed “normal” selections early and then went walkabout after the 2nd round. Then, after the coke machines and tall trees they came back and picked up a couple of hockey players. I assume the Oilers did this because everyone else was doing it too, but that’s not a good reason. This fact remains: The McKenzie list had Toni Rajala ahead of Anton Lander, and Edmonton drafted the higher-ranked player 61 slots later. On another note, between Hesketh at No. 71 and Rajala 30 selections later, Cody Eakin, Casey Cizikas, David Savard and Craig Smith all went off the board.

2010 Oilers draft

  • Taylor Hall selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Pitlick selected #31, ranked #25 (attended combine)
  • Martin Marincin selected #56, ranked #71 (attended combine)
  • Curtis Hamilton selected #48, ranked 57 (attended combine)
  • Ryan Martindale selected #61, ranked 58 (attended combine)
  • Jeremie Blain selected #91, not ranked
  • Tyler Bunz selected #121, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Brandon Davidson selected #162, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Drew Czerwonka selected #166, not ranked
  • Kristians Pelss selected #181, not ranked
  • Kellen Jones selected #202, not ranked

The 2010 draft hasn’t worked out as hoped, but I was thrilled to see the attention paid to established rankings. The Oilers are looking at 33% success rate in the second round (which we know is average), and the guy who worked out was the outer marker, but he was still inside normal. Edmonton could get three players from this draft, and it was a huge improvement over 2009, with only one later Hesketh-Abney moment (Blain).

2011 Oilers draft

  • Ryan Nugent Hopkins selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Oscar Klefbom selected #19, ranked #21 (attended combine)
  • David Musil selected #31, ranked #41 (attended combine)
  • Samu Perhonen selected #62, ranked #51 (attended combine)
  • Travis Ewanyk selected #74, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Dillon Simpson selected #92, ranked HM
  • Tobias Rieder selected #114, unranked (attended combine)
  • Martin Gernat selected #122, unranked
  • Frans Tuohimaa selected #182, unranked

That’s probably as close to a perfect “risk averse” draft as you can get. Grab players from the McKenzie list who also attended the combine for as long as you can, then take a couple of guys who are either on the BM list or attended the combine. Follow that with a couple of “touch list” gems from the scouts and you’re good to go. I think the 2011 draft is just about perfect—I’d quarrel with need picks like Musil and Ewanyk, but this is pretty damn good value. Only Perhonen didn’t get a pro contract.

2012 Oilers draft

  • Nail Yakupov selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Mitchell Moroz selected #32, ranked #56 (attended combine)
  • Jujhar Khaira selected #63, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Daniil Zharkov selected #91, ranked #47 (attended combine)
  • Erik Gustafsson selected #93, not ranked
  • Joey Laleggia selected #123, not ranked
  • John McCarron selected #153, not ranked

Three of their first four picks were on the McKenzie list, and Khaira attended the combine and was a major sleeper for Red Line Report. The selection of Moroz caused quite a stir, but he was ranked as a second-round selection. I’ve previously ranked Khaira as a walkabout pick, but speeds (correctly) mentioned the other day it isn’t really accurate to lump him in with Hesketh and Abney and Bigos. Khaira was known, well thought of by Red Line, and a hockey player. Everyone in the top 100 was at the combine save overager Gustafsson, and that’s miles better than walkabout.

2013 Oilers draft

  • Darnell Nurse at #7–Bob McKenzie #9 (attended combine)
  • Marc-Olivier Roy at #56–Bob McKenzie #59 (attended combine)
  • Bogdan Yakimov at #83–Pronman #73 (attended combine)
  • Anton Slepyshev at #88–Pronman #45
  • Jackson Houck at #94–Pronman #91 (attended combine)
  • Kyle Platzer at #96–Pronman #151 (reach)
  • Aidan Muir, at #113, not ranked
  • Evan Campbell at #128, not ranked
  • Ben Betker at #158, not ranked
  • Greg Chase at #188, Pronman #99

Another nice job inside the top 100, and a stunning pick at No. 188. I count six legit NHL prospects here, and the Oilers can’t wait to get Yakimov into pre-season games. Interesting draft by the Oilers, lots of possibilities, and the only reach in the top 100 was Platzer at No. 96 overall. If they’d taken Chase there it would have been perfect, but it’s close enough for jazz. Edmonton may get three players out of this draft.

2014 Oilers draft

  • Leon Draisaitl at #3—Bob McKenzie #4 (attended combine)
  • William Lagesson at #91—Pronman #60, ISS #71
  • Zach Nagelvoort at #111—ISS #8G
  • Liam Coughlin at #130, not ranked
  • Tyler Vesel at #153, not ranked
  • Keven Bouchard at #183, not ranked

Very much like the 2008 draft, with the exceptions being a much higher No. 1 overall pick and Lagesson being ranked (Motin was not). I’d love to see where the Oilers ranked all those Oil Kings.

THE MACGREGOR DRAFTS

Stu MacGregor and his scouting department draft from five distinct categories:

  1. The #1 overalls. MBS is completely risk averse here, good grief they simply grabbed the best player available and walked off the stage. I do believe the club has had periods of time in their history where they might have outsmarted themselves.
  2. The ranked/combine group. This is the heart of the MBS group—32 players were either ranked, attended the combine or did both things. The best among this group (excluding the #1 overalls) might be Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, Martin Marincin, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl, Bogdan Yakimov. It also includes the controversial Moroz selection.
  3. The walkabout bunch. This is the group that sees Edmonton grab players inside the top 100 who are not ranked in the top 100 and were not included in the combine group. This collection includes Troy Hesketh, Cameron Abney, Jeremie Blain. We shouldn’t expect this to be an area of strength, this is “drafting for need” and “feeling a passion” and rarely works out.
  4. The overage kids. Beginning with Kyle Bigos and blossoming 2012, the Oilers seem to have a fascination in late rounds with overage draft and follows in Europe and the NCAA. That list would include Bigos, Kellen Jones, Loey Laleggia,  John McCarron, Aidan Muir, Evan Campbell, Zach Nagelvoort, Liam Coughlin and Tyler Vesel.
  5. The BCJHL. Kyle Bigos, Kellen Jones, Jujhar Khaira, Evan Campbell and Liam Coughlin have all been taken by the team since 2008. Khaira is the only major selection in the group, but the drafting from the BCJHL seems excessive based on the returns so far. I’m pleased they drafted someone from Vernon, but was hoping it would be Dexter Dancs, who had a better season and is five months younger.

Long time readers will know this blog’s author is a fan of the MacGregor drafting team, and certainly 2010+ have shown risk averse drafting and there are good players on the way. You will hear grumbling about a lack of talent arriving after the first round picks, but Martin Marincin’s impressive arrival this year offers some indication about the future.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

TSN 1260, 10-noon. A busy morning with much jocularity. Dennis King (Oilogosphere icon) joins at 10:05, and is followed by Travis Yost of Hockeybuzz. We’ll discuss the Sens’ depth at center and need of help on the blue line, and see if we can find a match between the Oilers and Ottawa. Rob Soria stops in at 10:45 to talk about Five Hole for Food and its success. In hour two, I’ll be joined by Veritas’ hockey agent Tom Lynn to discuss the draft and free agency from the player side. Dean Millard joins at 11:25 to discuss the British Open.

@Lowetide_ on twitter, 10-1260 text.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

57 Responses to "THE WALKABOUTS"

  1. DBO says:

    Still have faith in Macgregor and his crew. They have stocked the cupboards, our failing as a team has been Pro procurement (which seems to have been improved this year, centre of course still not addressed fully).

    On the centre questions. Here are the stats of one of the “rising stars” on Detroit who is 23, Tatar.

    2009-2010 GRAND RAPIDS GRIFFINS-AHL 58 16 16 32 8 12 3 0 3
    2009-2010 SLOVAKIA-WJC-A 6 3 2 5 6
    2009-2010 SLOVAKIA-WC-A 6 2 0 2 4
    2010-2011 RED WINGS 9 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 16.7
    2010-2011 GRAND RAPIDS GRIFFINS-AHL 70 24 33 57 14 45 6 0 5 163 14.7
    2011-2012 GRAND RAPIDS GRIFFINS-AHL 76 24 34 58 4 45 3 0 2 224 10.7
    2011-2012 SLOVAKIA-WC-A 10 2 3 5 1 0 0 0 1
    2012-2013 SHK 37 PIESTANY-SLOVAKIA 8 5 5 10 6
    2012-2013 RED WINGS 18 4 3 7 2 4 1 0 0 32 12.5
    2012-2013 GRAND RAPIDS GRIFFINS-AHL 61 23 26 49 8 50 7 0 5 205 11.2
    2013-2014 RED WINGS 73 19 20 39 12 30 2 0 3 158 12.0
    NHL TOTALS 100 24 23 47 14 34 3 0 3 196 12.2

    Solid example of proper time in the minors and now he is a solid two way player who is a true example of taking your time with a young player (drafted in 2nd round, 60th overall)

    Now my buddy Anton Lander.

    2009-2010 TIMRA IK-SWEDEN 49 7 9 16 14
    2009-2010 SWEDEN-WJC-A 6 5 3 8 4
    2010-2011 TIMRA IK-SWEDEN 49 11 15 26 38
    2010-2011 SWEDEN-WJC-A 6 1 3 4 4 4 0 0 1
    2011-2012 OILERS 56 2 4 6 -8 12 0 1 0 54 3.7
    2011-2012 OKLAHOMA CITY BARONS-AHL 14 1 4 5 -1 10 0 0 1 29 3.4
    2012-2013 OILERS 11 0 1 1 -4 2 0 0 0 11 0.0
    2012-2013 OKLAHOMA CITY BARONS-AHL 47 9 11 20 -1 22 1 0 0 78 11.5
    2013-2014 OILERS 27 0 1 1 -10 4 0 0 0 18 0.0
    NHL TOTALS 94 2 6 8 -22 18 0 1 0 83 2.4
    AHL 2013-14 46 18 34 52 +7 30 10 0 1.13 0.65 120

    He should never have spent a full year with big club. Unlike the Red Wing he was put in a spot to fail. He then spent years getting his confidence back and produced a better offensive year then Tatar ever has in the AHL. They are the same age, and Tatar is now counted on to be a top 6 forward for the Wings, given solid wingers and somewhat sheltered in the NHL, yet offensively has the same pedigree as Lander (you can’t count Lander’s first few AHL years as he was a 4th liner and only since Nelson has he started to get his game back).

    Why do we crush Lander and yet the Wings promote Tatar? Why on the Wings is he a top 6 player, given solid wingers and a role, yet Lander is considered by Oil fans as a failed player who has to “prove” it in the NHL. Yes he needs to hit for more average, but his history and “character, work ethic, leadership, etc. (all qualities promoted on draft day and in the Swedish leagues and international competition) and his great offensive year in the AHL when given solid linemates and playing a top role, seem to say he will succeed.

    The 2C/4RW can and should be Arco and Lander. Even with a solid two way centre with size, we are not a playoff team. We are closer, and the trade deadline (like the Cup run year) will really determine it. But running with those two at centre for 10 games, with Dr. Dre getting his 9 game audition, lets see what we have and give these two players, (Arco and Lander) who have proven their doubters wrong at every level, a real shot to take those open spots.

  2. nycoil says:

    LT,
    You, sir, are an animal!

    DBO,

    I always thought Lander was the perfect “Detroit” draft pick, but Oilers got a bit too smart for themselves in trying to follow the Detroit model, I think.

  3. Lowetide says:

    The thing about Lander is (as fans) we should just forget the past. He had a meandering route, but his OKC season was excellent—he was a go to offensive player for the first time since Sweden. And he isn’t 30.

    There’s a bunch of C’s who are on the way, but Lander is unique among draft picks in that he is HERE. One-way deal, wide open position.

  4. DBO says:

    Lowetide,

    exactly. a two way winger, solid skills and crushed the minors last year playing in every role. Give him Pouliot and Purcell and let them run with it. Would be great.

  5. Marcus Oilerius says:

    nycoil:
    I always thought Lander was the perfect “Detroit” draft pick, but Oilers got a bit too smart for themselves in trying to follow the Detroit model, I think.

    Lander is a great pick.

    Lander’s development has been mismanaged from the moment he came over to North America.

  6. Jordan says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    I don’t agree. He hasn’t been mis-managed the entire time.

    But that first year was a huge mistake, and has set him back. That is the issue that he and the org. have been trying to come back from – a wasted season.

    FWIW, I hope he starts the season with Perron & Purcell and they go to town as a defensively responsible second line with some offense. Kid deserves some major puck luck this season.

  7. BeerLeagueHero says:

    Re: Lander,

    Mismanaged or not, he took some time to find his footing in the AHL, wouldn’t it be fair to assume the same sort of learning curve in respects to his NHL career?

  8. G Money says:

    DBO: Here are the stats of one of the “rising stars” on Detroit who is 23, Tatar.

    You’ll also find a number of such parallels (maybe even more than with Tatar) between Lander and fellow Swede Gustav Nyquist.

    There is no secret to the Detroit model.

    It’s “have depth on the NHL club” followed by “so you can leave prospects to mature on the farm until they’ve learned every in and out of the pro game at the AHL level”.

    Surprise surprise, the result is that moderately talented players can contribute at the NHL level because when they finally make it to “the show”, they have the mental and physical maturity and experience to maximize whatever talent they have.

    It doesn’t mean every player succeeds, it just means that every player gets the full opportunity and encouragement needed to succeed.

    The opposite of this is to throw that same sort of player into the NHL, watch him struggle and lose confidence, send him to the farm in what is now a demotion instead of a developmental move, then promote him too soon again, watch him struggle again, then finally cut him loose as a “failed prospect”.

    It doesn’t mean every player fails, it just means that every player gets the full opportunity and encouragement needed to fail.

    Thankfully, last years experience with Nurse and (sort of) Klefbom and Marincin means the approach might finally be changing.

    MacT can solidify that whole deal by bringing in a little more C depth.

    Though with Arco and Lander, the former arguably the result of an accidental Detroit model and the latter being “we tried to shoot ourselves in the foot but missed”, we can hope those two step up as a legit 2C/4C combo, at least enough to let the team keep Dr. Drai ripening on the vine another year.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    A quibble

    “The #1 overalls. MBS is completely risk averse here, good grief they simply grabbed the best player available and walked off the stage. I do believe the club has had periods of time in their history where they might have outsmarted themselves.”

    We have a fairly clear idea that something weird went down with Yakupov. They ultimately got the player deemed best available at the time, but responsibility of that decision is in question… giving it to MBS is iffy.

    ————-
    One thing about walkabouts that we really don’t know about is the disparity between team lists and public lists.

    We are left to compare the actual draft records to something like BobM’s list.

    But, it seems likely that on draft day the teams are more concerned about the 29 other teams’ lists. I imagine there is a lot of gamesmanship between the teams in trying to gin up buzz on players to get other teams to flinch.

    But one thing is for sure, if teams are going walkabout, they have their own peculiar list, so every other team does too… there’s a delicate psychology involved here.

    It may well explain why you see the order of Moroz, Khaira and Zharkov as you do by the Oilers. Maybe they ranked them ZH (1), K (2), M (3), but felt they had to take them the other way around to protect the player from other teams.

  10. TheNemesister says:

    To add my 2cents into yesterday’s discussion on RE artists…
    My vote is for Warren Zevon for sure!
    Just in case Nuge or Gordon happen to get hurt, because as we stand now, the Oilers theme song for the year may end up being “My shits fucked up”…
    But I’m honestly pulling for the Oil to get “Back in the high life now”
    As long as our D holds up & Scrivens/Fasth don’t end up begging for “Lawers Guns & Money” to save their weary souls…
    gotta go guys… “My rides here”

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    new post up on the Kings and their crazy zone start situation.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/07/the-la-kings-zone-start-freaks/

  12. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: But, it seems likely that on draft day the teams are more concerned about the 29 other teams’ lists. I imagine there is a lot of gamesmanship between the teams in trying to gin up buzz on players to get other teams to flinch.

    Indeed. I think you could make the analogy that the long-term process leading up to the draft is investment analysis, and the short-term process leading up to the draft is poker.

  13. Clay says:

    G Money: You’ll also find a number of such parallels (maybe even more than with Tatar) between Lander and fellow Swede Gustav Nyquist.

    There is no secret to the Detroit model.

    It’s “have depth on the NHL club” followed by “so you can leave prospects to mature on the farm until they’ve learned every in and out of the pro game at the AHL level”.

    I’m going to weigh in on the validity of the “Detroit Model”. As you point out, and it’s 100% correct, that great depth at the NHL level allows prospects to stay in the AHL and season properly.

    However, Detroit has been afforded this luxury in large part because they got lucky. Datsyuk at #171 in 1998 and Zetterberg at #210 in 1999, both turned into franchise players, and neither played a single game in the AHL.

    Add to that a freakish generational defenseman who never got injured (a third round selection who also never played in the AHL) to calm all the waters, and exceptional, EXCEPTIONAL pro scouting and management that consistently replaced retiring stars with very capable veteran NHLers, and you’re left with a well run team that has the luxury of keeping their prospects on the farm to marinate.

    I’m not arguing that the Detroit Model doesn’t exist, just that it has reached undeserved mythical proportions. I am firmly in the camp of developing prospects properly, at the appropriate levels. My point is that the main players in Detroit’s success for the past dozen years were not actually produced by the Detroit Model.

  14. Frank The Dog says:

    July. BBQ’s, weeds, lakes, cabins, Cancun, Hawaii, Europe, Lowetide’s blogs taken up by music, late round draft picks and walkabouts.

    I commend you, LT, for your creativity, knowledge and determination. I hope you have a laptop and are sitting on a beach somewhere with a beer in hand while keeping all of the die hard Oiler fans on life support.

  15. eidy says:

    small thing re: Aiden Muir.

    I agree that he is draft and follow. Howerver, not an overager as he doesn’t turn 19 until next month.

    21 AUG 1995 (AGE 18)

    Maybe better in the walkabout category

  16. John Chambers says:

    Tyler Ennis, who can best be defined as a poor man’s Jordan Eberle, has just signed a 5-year contract at a cap hit of $4.6M per.

    In contrast, Eberle’s deal looks like a stroke of genius.

  17. G Money says:

    Clay,

    I think it is correct to say that the Detroit Model is overblown – part of my point is that there really is no model, it’s really not much more than “have depth and let prospects mature”.

    And certainly, a huge part of Detroit’s history IS that they did get lucky with Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Lidstrom in particular. (Detroit’s drafting prowess has large elements of mythology to it – even Ken Holland admitted at one point that the drafting of Z & D in particular were sheer dumb luck).

    However, I think it’s not accurate to say that the Red Wings roster is not driven by the development model. Even today, they have these valuable contributing depth players: Andersson, Helm, Nyquist, Tatar, Ericsson, and Kindl … all products of the Detroit Model. That is to say, they are players that were given generous stays in college, overseas, and/or the AHL before sticking in the NHL. This is often attributed to great drafting, but I think much of their success in drafting is actually attributable to development. Just an observation, I don’t have the data to back it up. “Seen ‘em good” as it were.

    But I believe that’s what’s allowed the Wings to stay competitive even as their key players have retired or aged. They still have a lot of depth to be able to plug and play additional players. That will slowly wear down over time as shrinking depth in the NHL means a shortened development path which means lower depth on the farm and eventually we might be back to calling them the Detroit Dead Things.

    The Oilers are arguably at the other end of the aging spectrum. They have the high end talent. Now building the NHL depth and the subsequent luxury of letting players develop is what is needed.

  18. Kitchener says:

    Frank The Dog:
    I commend you, LT, for your creativity, knowledge and determination. I hope you have a laptop and are sitting on a beach somewhere with a beer in hand while keeping all of the die hard Oiler fans on life support.

    This.

  19. John Chambers says:

    G Money,

    So basically what you’re espousing is that the “Detroit Model” has two main virtues: patience, and pro-level depth.

    It seems MacT has subscribed to those virtues in his moves this summer … save for depth at C.

  20. Bruce McCurdy says:

    In April I wrote a detailed post comparing Oilers’ development of Anton Lander relative to the Detroit Model that is bang on topic today.

  21. OilClog says:

    Lander offensively couldn’t hold Tartars jock strap. I understand how it’s easy to compare the players and their situations.. But let it be known.. Lander doesn’t have a chance against Tartars offensive ability, if he did.. His 20games playing right wing with Nuge and Ebs would should of produced anything more then it did.

  22. wheatnoil says:

    OilClog:
    Lander offensively couldn’t hold Tartars jock strap. I understand how it’s easy to compare the players and their situations.. But let it be known.. Lander doesn’t have a chance against Tartars offensive ability, if he did.. His 20games playing right wing with Nuge and Ebs would should of produced anything more then it did.

    Lander played a total of 53 minutes with Nugent Hopkins at even-strength last year and 47 minutes with Eberle. He played more minutes with Luke Gazdic than he did with either of those two players. Lander definitely had trouble producing at an NHL level last year (1 point in 27 games) despite his production at an AHL level and it’s worth discussing the reasons for that, but to say he played “20 games” with Nugent Hopkins and Eberle is blatantly incorrect.

  23. Yak2 says:

    LT,

    That 2013 draft WILL produce 5 players: Nurse, Roy, Yakimov, Slepyshev, and Chase.

  24. rickithebear says:

    last 2 years point s and cap hit current team.

    Eberle 6.0M 128GM 44G 58A 102P -15

    Gagner 3.8M 115gm 24G 51A 75P -35 limited by Jaw for 40% of games

    Ennis 4.5M 127gm 31G 43A 74P -39

    Eberle No.

    Gagner you betcha!

  25. ashley says:

    While not walkabout, you could argue that the Eberle and Marincin picks were reaches based on where they were taken in the draft, especially Eberle. In a draft of at least average depth, there is usually a lot of difference in quality between players ranked in the late teens/early twenties and those ranked late twenties/early thirties.

    They hit a homerun with the reach on Eberle and did very well with Marincin. Perhaps this reinforces smartest-guys-in-the-room thinking.

  26. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    In April I wrote a detailed post comparing Oilers’ development of Anton Lander relative to the Detroit Model that is bang on topic today.

    Ha, yeah, nice work! I might have been channeling some of your work without realizing it. This one sentence is particularly telling: “Would you believe that through age 22, Anton Lander has played more NHL games than current Red Wings Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Mikael Samuelsson, and Daniel Alfredsson combined?” Looks almost like you could add Nyquist and Tatar to that list and still have it be true.

  27. Pouzar says:

    G Money: Ha, yeah, nice work! I might have been channeling some of your work without realizing it. This one sentence is particularly telling: “Would you believe that through age 22, Anton Lander has played more NHL games than current Red Wings Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Mikael Samuelsson, and Daniel Alfredsson combined?” Looks almost like you could add Nyquist and Tatar to that list and still have it be true.

    That is a frickin unreal stat. Wow.

  28. Henry says:

    Yak2,

    Houck may have as good a shot as Roy too.

  29. One-Timer says:

    If anyone thought Datsyuk would be Datsyuk, he would have gone #1, not #171.

    That’s a team getting lotto-lucky.

  30. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: Ha, yeah, nice work!I might have been channeling some of your work without realizing it.This one sentence is particularly telling: “Would you believe that through age 22, Anton Lander has played more NHL games than current Red Wings Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Mikael Samuelsson, and Daniel Alfredsson combined?”
    Looks almost like you could add Nyquist and Tatar to that list and still have it be true.

    Read on! “Hey lookit, Anton Lander has played more NHL games at this point than all five of these guys [Andersson, Nyquist, Tatar, Pulkkinen, Jurco] combined had played through their age 22 seasons!”

    Not quite more than all 10 guys combined, but more than 2 distinct lists of 5 guys each.

    In reality all of the Lander disconnect occurred in his 20-year-old season. The last two years he’s been handled very similarly to Nyquist, Tatar et al.

  31. supernova says:

    LT,

    Sorry to ask again but any idea if you are going to take this the next Step and delve into the development models of teams.

    I have been stating for a long time know that I don’t find MBS at fault for draft record especially post 2010.

    Drafting styles change as the pro team develops, if the system wasn’t so barren of talent prior to 2008 the first few drafts would have been different as well.

    I would love this to be a few articles deep and we can learn and discuss other teams and scenarios

  32. John Chambers says:

    OilClog,

    Lander had an outstanding AHL season. A just-turned 23 year old player, especially one making a mere 600k at the NHL level, should be given a significant opportunity to demonstrate whether they can provide value.

    However to your point about holding jockstraps and whatnot, I too have seen Lander bad and give him about a 25% chance of succeeding as a top-9 forward in the NHL.

  33. Jon K says:

    This guy was always thought to be held back by his skating, and didn’t score much in the pro ranks before breaking out in his 23 year old season:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=31058

    Of course, when Stoll came in after the lockout it was noted that he had put a lot of work into his skating.

    If Lander can get even a half step faster he has the potential to be a very similar player. His AHL scoring suggests he should be a vastly superior player, but I think we’d all be happy if he ended up with a similar career to Stoll, warts and all.

  34. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    LT,

    Sorry to ask again but any idea if you are going to take this the next Step and delve into the development models of teams.

    I have been stating for a long time know that I don’t find MBS at fault for draft record especially post 2010.

    Drafting styles change as the pro team develops, if the system wasn’t so barren of talent prior to 2008 the first few drafts would have been different as well.

    I would love this to be a few articles deep and we can learn and discuss other teams and scenarios

    It’s a tough thing to do, there are all kinds of elements in play. I’ve listed “players sent to NHL by season” and can do that again, but the entire process of development is a monster. Some teams park players forever and it looks like nothing’s happening and then boom! NJD are like that.

  35. oilerman1000 says:

    Lowetide,

    This discussion about Lander (and others) development is fascinating. I remember a year ago MacT made a comment that stuck with me and nobody has picked up on it that I can find. He made the comment that he was changing the system that OKC played to match the Oilers system. Prospects in OKC could learn the ins and out of the system at lower speeds and against weak competition to gain confidence and perfect their play. The eventual outcome is when they were called up they could make an immediate impact after the got up to speed on the speed of the nhl game. MacT pointed to Detroit as a perfect example of doing this and the success they’ve had.

    That seemingly simple change to me is a huge item to watch going forward- especially for the young d coming up. I wonder if Marincin’s NHL success (while in limited action) is a direct result of this. Imagine young Europeans coming over to North America and the change the ahl / North American style of game is. Getting used to it takes time. Going to the nhl at the speed it’s played at must be increasingly difficult – and skilled players like lander show how they can get lost.

    I’d love to see someone close to the oilers do a piece on this and ask guys like Nelson, MacT or Rocky Thompson on this.

    I believe were going to see many more Marincin’s vs Landers coming to the Oilers as a result of this change.

  36. OilClog says:

    John Chambers:
    OilClog,

    Lander had an outstanding AHL season. A just-turned 23 year old player, especially one making a mere 600k at the NHL level, should be given a significant opportunity to demonstrate whether they can provide value.

    However to your point about holding jockstraps and whatnot, I too have seen Lander bad and give him about a 25% chance of succeeding as a top-9 forward in the NHL.

    It’s not so much seeing him bad.

    It’s just never seeing him equal to the task.

    Watch a clip, just a clip of Tartar, It’s comparing apples to oranges if everyone is talking Lander.

    That 20game span riding second line wing produced what I would expect from Gazdic, and that 20game stretch came after the call up I believe from the offensive success he was having.

    I think I’m just sour he was played for a 1/4 of the season with Ebs and Nuge when it made zero sense whatsoever to continue it after the first few games, if that long.

    A few players could get away with murder, a few couldn’t sneeze. It was extremely difficult to watch, everyone knows it. I understand Pitlick kept getting injured, yet why when him and Lander were dressed in the same game.. was Lander auditioning as 2nd line winger? Does Lander project to anyone anywhere as a 2nd line winger, especially over Pitlick? Ugh.

    Eakins says he wants Lander to be able to handle utility roles yadda yadda.. Wouldn’t he of benefitted if playing on the wing, to play with Gordon?!?! Doesn’t his skill set scream shut down! Omg. I’m just a Joe Schmoe fan, yet simple decisions like that are clear as day aren’t they? No?

  37. v4ance says:

    Not to derail the thread LT but I noticed that you said you were a Star Phoenix carrier in Maidstone once upon a time.

    I did the same in Turtleford, just a hop and skip away. Small world.

    I know you’ve expressed your dislike of the Riders from time to time even though you grew up in Saskatchewan. I discovered my love of football in the early 80′s living in Edmonton watching the Warren Moon led Esks. When I moved to Saskatchewan, my heart was captured by the sad sack Riders.

    I guess that’s why I have endless patience for this rebuild that the Oilers are going through. My Riders have primed me well for season after season of heartbreak. The suffering makes winning one championship even more sweet.

  38. Lowetide says:

    v4ance:
    Not to derail the thread LT but I noticed that you said you were a Star Phoenix carrier in Maidstone once upon a time.

    I did the same in Turtleford, just a hop and skip away.Small world.

    Used to zip over to Turtleford plenty, we lived 17 miles north of Maidstone for several years before moving into town. Remember Alan’s Store? Anyway, you turned left and went up two miles to our house. Schwartz’s and Lundquist’s forever. :-)

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    v4ance: I think I’m just sour he was played for a 1/4 of the season with Ebs and Nuge when it made zero sense whatsoever to continue it after the first few games, if that long.

    Lander played 53 minutes with RNH and 46 with Eberle. Put another way, <4.5% of RNH's even strength minutes were spent with Lander and <4.0% of Eberle's. By what math does that constitute "1/4 of the season"??

  40. John Chambers says:

    OilClog,

    Indeed it’s too bad his late season audition went so poorly, although I recall him playing far fewer than 20 games port side Nuge and Ebs.

    He might get a good crack at playing C, the position he had a lot of success in OKC playing, with quality linemates this season, then we’ll really know what we have.

    But I agree – short of him being able to contribute offense I’m quite comfortable with him say playing wing on Gordon’s line taking D zone draws .

  41. John Chambers says:

    rickithebear,

    I guess that makes Ennis a stupid rich guy’s Sam Gagner.

    And they bough out Ehrhoff. Weird.

  42. John Chambers says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Ahh, thanks Bruce for producing the actual data.

    Mr McCurdy, if they went crazy and gave Lander the #1C job in between Hall and Ebs, do you think he’s capable of 50 points given those conditions.

    I’m wondering if anybody, ie Arco or Lander, could tread water so long as they had #4 driving the bus alongside them, thereby allowing Nuge to centre a very good 2nd line which included Perron and Purcell.

  43. Deadman Waiting says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: giving it to MBS is iffy

    Not giving it to MBS is even iffier. Don’t outsmart yourself. At the very least he was one of the dogs wrestling the bone.

    <Murk spin facepalm>

    ——

    Just for fun: 10 Hard to Translate English Words. It’s an amusing list.

  44. justDOit says:

    John Chambers,

    Buying out Ehrhoff had more to do with possible recapture penalties from his back-diving contract, should he retire before it ended.

  45. Lowetide says:

    Deadman Waiting: Not giving it to MBS is even iffier. Don’t outsmart yourself. At the very least he was one of the dogs wrestling the bone.

    <Murk spin facepalm>

    ——

    Just for fun: 10 Hard to Translate English Words.It’s an amusing list.

    My dog is 14 pounds. If there’s a bone halfway between you and my dog, stop drop and roll. She’ll be warming up the fava beans and allowing the chianti to breathe before you complete your first step.

  46. B S says:

    Lander needs to shoot in the NHL. In OKC he’s the defacto go to guy to score, but in the NHL he seems to try to dish it off rather than be the hero. Lander had 18 shots last season, 18 shots in 27 games. yes he played with Ebs and Nuge but clearly he didn’t want to shoot. I think judging Lander’s offence needs to be a question of possession ability before we can start talking about his boxcars, i.e is his lack of offence because he never has the puck, or because he’s over-passing? Unless he’s Hemsky, the latter is much easier to fix than the former.

    Lander’s CorsiRel last season was +1.9 with a 39.5% off.ZS and 41.8% off.ZFinish. his quality of competition was not world beater, but he wasn’t getting a ZS push. Take it for what you like, but I suspect the offense will come as he works up through the lineup, and for now it shouldn’t be a concern. I think the question with Lander should be whether he can move the puck from our end to their end?

  47. blainer says:

    I remember the Red Wings when they Sucked…that’s how old I am. Their cupboard was Bare and they started filling it with the likes of Yzerman and co…. eventually it got to the point they are now..able to wait because they have a competitive team… When the oil drafted Lander their cupboard ( as in NO farm system) was empty and could not get Anyone to sign with us… We were in fact… Desperate …The cupboard is getting there slowly based on the fact of how Moroz is being developed….Two more years and we will have a very good system sending players to the big leagues regularly…

  48. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Used to zip over to Turtleford plenty, we lived 17 miles north of Maidstone for several years before moving into town. Remember Alan’s Store? Anyway, you turned left and went up two miles to our house. Schwartz’s and Lundquist’s forever.

    It’s like the Ukrainians stopped at the border. Same thing to the south of Lloyd too. Macklin is filled to the brim with Stangs, IIRC.

  49. spoiler says:

    B S: I think the question with Lander should be whether he can move the puck from our end to their end?

    Could be tough if he is dragging Gazdic up the ice along with the puck. Gazdic is the anti-Red Bull… He does not give you wings.

  50. B S says:

    spoiler: Could be tough if he is dragging Gazdic up the ice along with the puck.Gazdic is the anti-Red Bull… He does not give you wings.

    But Gazdic has a PDO of .988, that means he should be better next year right? regressing to the mean?

  51. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: It’s like the Ukrainians stopped at the border. Same thing to the south of Lloyd too. Macklin is filled to the brim with Stangs, IIRC.

    Ha! It’s true. Winnipeg and Edmonton is drunk with Ukrainians but you can’t get them out of the city! :-)

  52. B S says:

    Sweet, baby jeebus, looked up Gazdic’s fancy stats and it’s scary (Was interested after Gaz was actually better off without Arcobello in WGs analysis, now pretty sure he was getting easier starts w/o). Gazdic has a PDO of 0.988 WITH an on ice save% of 0.939. His shooting percentage was 4.88%, and I don’t think that’s going to improve next season. The only good thing he did last season (aside from destroy his facepunching quotient) is drawing more penalties than he took

  53. G Money says:

    B S,

    .988 is a perfectly normal PDO value in the big picture. It’s “slightly unlucky but not abnormally so”. Plus given that he’s Gazdic, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that his mean is actually going to be on the weak side anyway. So regression in his case might mean .99 or even .98 … i.e. I wouldn’t count on regression suddenly making a player out of him!

  54. FastOil says:

    Yak2:
    LT,

    That 2013 draft WILL produce 5 players: Nurse, Roy, Yakimov, Slepyshev, and Chase.

    Slep and Roy will have to have good offense to make it baring a miracle. I don’t rate either as having much of a shot because neither has great arrows at the moment, and their bottom 6 potential given how most NHL teams think,especially Oilers, is limited. So either score or play in Europe.

  55. B S says:

    G Money:
    B S,

    .988 is a perfectly normal PDO value in the big picture.It’s “slightly unlucky but not abnormally so”.Plus given that he’s Gazdic, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that his mean is actually going to be on the weak side anyway.So regression in his case might mean .99 or even .98 … i.e. I wouldn’t count on regression suddenly making a player out of him!

    Yep, see my above comment. I like Gazdic, but even without Corsi or Fenwick it’s all pretty damning.

  56. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Agree Gazdic’s PDO is actually high for his true talent level. Fortunately he doesnt need to regress to the mean, he was mean the moment he got here.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Agree Gazdic’s PDO is actually high for his true talent level. Fortunately he doesnt need to regress to the mean, he was mean the moment he got here.

    Zing!

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca