WHICH WAY YOU GOING, MARCO?

Marco Roy is pretty damn important to Oiler fans. If you recall, after the 2013 entry draft Craig MacTavish talked about Roy, saying the scouts and the analytics liked him. The Oilers do use numbers in regard to prospects, and that’s news! How much did they use them this year? We’ll talk. For our purposes today and Mr. Roy, let’s acknowledge:

  • he’s the most offensively-gifted prospect among the last five Oiler second-round picks (Lander, Pitlick, Hamilton, Moroz, Roy)
  • injuries impacted his season
  • if analytics are going to advance in this area, the “Roys” of the world need to succeed

In the week after last year’s draft, I interviewed Michael Parkatti from the Boys on the Bus blog. Parkatti won the Oilers hackathon and did some numbers work for the team before the 2013 draft, basically confirming what their scouts were viewing (or possibly raising red flags).

  • Michael Parkatti: “The model really liked Marco Roy. There’s a lot of things to like about the player outwardly, and if you look at the statistics diagnostically it’s not just the point production but also the situation he found himself in. The team he played for this year was very good, but it was one of those situations where he wasn’t being dragged along by anybody. The way I like to look at it was he was the good player on the team, he played an integral part on that team. And you really saw that in the playoffs.”

Roy had some injury issues last season, but he performed about the same at even strength:

PPG NAME (LEAGUE) GP G A PTS
.630 MARCY ROY (12-13 QMJHL) 65 16 25 41
.615 MARCO ROY (13-14 QMJHL) 39 8 16 24

Meaning that the gap season-over-season offensively came from the power play:

PPG NAME (LEAGUE) GP G A PTS
.400 MARCY ROY (12-13 QMJHL) 65 13 13 26
.256 MARCO ROY (13-14 QMJHL) 39 5 5 10

If Roy had maintained his PP status, he would have been beyond a point-per-game in his draft year +1.

REVISITING THE CHL SECOND-ROUND SCORERS 2009-13

Marco Roy’s 1.03 points-per-game total in his draft season is not terribly unusual for 2nd round draft picks, but it is a nice list of prospects. Since 2009 (5 drafts), there have been 15 (3 a year). Here are their numbers (including Roy’s from a year ago) in their draft seasons—ranked by point-per-game:

  1. Nicolas Petan 2013 (WHL) 71, 46-74-120 (1.69)
  2. Shane Prince 2011 (OHL) 59, 25-63-88 (1.49)
  3. William Carrier 2013 (QMJHL) 34, 16-26-42 (1.24)
  4. Tyler Toffoli 2010 (OHL) 65, 37-42-79 (1.22)
  5. Ty Rattie 2011 (WHL) 67, 28-51-79 (1.18)
  6. Ryan Spooner 2010 (OHL) 47, 19-35-54 (1.15)
  7. Alexander Khoklachev 2011 (OHL) 67, 34-42-76 (1.13)
  8. Valentin Zykov 2012 (QMJHL) 67, 40-35-75 (1.12)
  9. Adam Erne 2013 (QMJHL) 68, 28-44-72 (1.06)
  10. Boone Jenner 2011 (OHL) 63, 25-41-66 (1.05)
  11. Marc Olivier Roy 2013 (QMJHL) 65, 29-38-67 (1.03)
  12. Christian Thomas 2010 (OHL) 64, 41-25-66 (1.03)
  13. Petr Straka 2010 (QMJHL) 62, 28-36-64 (1.03)
  14. Devante Smith-Pelly 2010 (OHL) 60, 29-33-62 (1.03)
  15. Nick Sorensen 2013 (QMJHL) 46, 20-27-47 (1.02)

CHL SECOND-ROUND SCORERS 2009-13 IN +1 SEASONS

    1. Nic Petan (2014) WHL 63, 35-78-113 (1.79—up from 1.69)
    2. Ty Rattie (2012) WHL 69, 57-64-121 (1.75—up from 1.18)
    3. Tyler Toffoli (2011) OHL 68, 57-51-108 (1.59—up from 1.22)
    4. Shane Prince (2012) OHL 57, 43-47-90 (1.58—up from 1.49)
    5. Christian Thomas (2011) OHL 66, 54-45-99 (1.5—up from 1.03)
    6. Nick Sorensen (2014) QMJHL 44, 31-30-61 (1.39—up from 1.02)
    7. Adam Erne (2014) QMJHL 48, 21-41-62 (1.29—up from 1.06)
    8. Ryan Spooner (2011) OHL 64, 35-46-81 (1.27—up from 1.15)
    9. Alexander Khoklachev (2012) OHL 56, 25-44-69 (1.23—up from 1.13)
    10. Valentin Zykov (2014) QMJHL 53, 23-40-63 (1.19—up from 1.12)
    11. Boone Jenner (2012) (OHL) 43, 22-27-49 (1.14—up from 1.05)
    12. Devante Smith-Pelly 2011 (OHL) 67, 36-30-66 (.985—down from 1.03)
    13. William Carrier (2014) QMJHL 66, 22-43-65 (.984—down from 1.24)
    14. Marco Roy (2014) QMJHL 39, 14-21-35 (.897—down from 1.03)
    15. Petr Straka (2011) QMJHL 41, 10-15-25 (.610—down from 1.03)

Roy is one of four players to move down year over year, and he’s moved down from 11th to 14th on the list. We know two things: injuries impacted him and the power play wasn’t as big a part of his overall offense.

I believe the Oilers under Craig MacTavish are doing the right thing here, leaving him in Quebec for another junior season. Call it lessons learned, with a hat tip to Pitlick and Hamilton. If Marco Roy succeeds as an NHL player, he may have those two men to thank, and maybe hockey analytics will owe them a debt of gratitude as well.

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68 Responses to "WHICH WAY YOU GOING, MARCO?"

  1. Philosophil says:

    Having the bonus of M Cup experience as Host doesn’t hurt the player’s development either.

  2. RexLibris says:

    Pulled up Marco Roy’s stats from ES.

    He was ranked 114th in the Q based on points

    Estimated TOI/60 is 18.7
    P/60 2.8, 2.1 when limited to EV
    His GF% was 53.8%, -2.7% GF when he is not on the ice, so the team scored at a slightly higher rate when he was not on the ice.
    However, he did play a part in 78.6% of the points that took place while he was on the ice.

    His TOI at evens was relatively equal to that spent on the PP, 18.7 minutes/60 prorated to an average 2 minute PP, or about 35% of total PP time.

    http://www.extraskater.com/qmjhl/players?page=3

    He needs to dominate this year, and I dare say that another big injury this season may finish him as a professional hockey player.

  3. Deadman Waiting says:

    Fresh thread and I’m off topic already, so I’ll make it short. Willis has a piece up at Cult about trading the underwhelming JS. He makes an assumption in comparing numbers across the board: that the players are being asked to play the game the same way, with the same contribution to game outcomes.

    This isn’t always true, and it was especially untrue in the long march of futility that constituted our last season. I believe Justin was given the triple-green light to jump into the play from xmas through May so as to get as many dangerous sorties under his belt as possible. Why not? It only improves your draft pick to lose a few more games you might have won. I believe this is also the reason JS was given an extremely large helping of ice time: maximal adventurehood.

    I also believe JS was told that this season would focus on the defensive side of his game. I believe MacT was watching Justin’s use of the triple-green light extremely closely, and that he believes he saw significant improvements in Justin’s offensive decision making (as viewed through the mint-coloured glasses of a triple-green light).

    For the same philosophy, Nuge was learning how to kill penalties. Not because it improved his numbers for the past season (it didn’t), not because we finished better in the standings because of it (we didn’t), but because somewhere down the road we’ll be in a playoff game where the usual PK suspects have fallen like nine pins, and Nugent needs to be able to step into the breach. Should he be investing in a future skill set next year down the stretch while we’re still miraculously in the hunt? Hanging by our fingernails to a harp’s longest C hair?

    No, that wouldn’t be auspicious for turning the ship.

    Lost seasons are not comparable. It sucks. Too bad. Give it up.

    Schultz was judged at the end of last season against what he was told to do, and to hear MacT tell it, he passed with flying colours, so clearly what he was told to do was a fish of another colour, one which bore little resemblance to winning games.

    My guess is that MacT is a fairly shrewd judge of a defenseman’s ability to commit to a dangerous read. I’m sure he found himself putting out those fires during his own years as a player more than once.

    Of all the places where MacT might harbour a serious blind-spot, this one would be near the bottom of my list.

    I strongly suspect that a plan hit the table around xmas last year for Schultz to be put into a defensively responsible situation starting next October, one that actually contributes to winning games.

    It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s a very different player out of the gate next year. Whether this very different Schultz is a good Schultz remains to be seen. That said, we can’t go around blaming him for not yet being good at a role he was not assigned. All we know for certain is that garbage-time Schultz (all sixty games worth) was driving the event-count in both directions.

    When you’re losing by a goal with ten minutes left in the game, this is actually a correct strategy: playing no-event hockey is a guaranteed loss. This is what the other team wants to achieve. The best way to drive the event count up is to give up more than you gain, knowing full well that what you’re giving up was already hard on the shoals of lost cause.

    Practising this skill every minute of the game for sixty games a season is a luxury only the most privied few can afford. If every clod has a silver lining, let’s all hope Justin got his yips out.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Deadman: Valid points all. I think the troubles with Justin Schultz are real, but Craig Ramsay must see all of that clay and think about shaping something exceptional. I remember Ralph Krueger talking about the value of speed on offense and defense.

    We wait.

  5. WeirsBeard says:

    Ah, stability. A wonderful thing, both for Roy ans Schultz this coming season. We often forget how young these men are (even college man Schultz), and with it overlook the value of them going into a situation they are familiar with.

    Also, kudos to Parkatti on the new gig. Wasn’t aware of his opportunity with the club. When do they bring in LT to tell tall tales of hockey back in the day of white skates and wooden sticks?

  6. Factotum Pochemuchka says:

    Deadman: This is very reasonable but flies in the face of Eakins’ post-game pressers, when he talked with increasing exasperation about Jultz’ inability to “recognize danger” leading to yet another ill-advised pinch (especially on the power play) that resulted in numbers going the other way and all too often a puck in the back of the Oilers’ net.

    That being said, I appreciate your repeated caution no to read too much into the measurables during what everyone recognized tragically-early on was a lost season.

  7. sliderule says:

    Marco is an example of the danger in drafting older birth date players.

    If they don’t have decent boxes in their predraft season there can be problems.Martinadale and Pitlick were both in that category.Decent boxes in draft year but not much in year before.

    In Marco’s case he looked real good at rookie tourney.He had a broken hand and then a concussion and that affected ice time and play.

    I still have hope for this player as he does have high end puck skill.

  8. Lowetide says:

    WeirsBeard:
    Ah, stability. A wonderful thing, both for Roy ans Schultz this coming season. We often forget how young these men are (even college man Schultz), and with it overlook the value of them going into a situation they are familiar with.

    Also, kudos to Parkatti on the new gig. Wasn’t aware of his opportunity with the club. When do they bring in LT to tell tall tales of hockey back in the day of white skates and wooden sticks?

    99′s first game at MLG was against the Seals. :-)

  9. sliderule says:

    There has only been one report from Jasper.

    Is there no Al Gore in the Park or are the sessions not open to public?

  10. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    There has only been one report from Jasper.

    Is there no Al Gore in the Park or are the sessions not open to public?

    I have a guest on at 10:05 tomorrow morning with an update on what he saw in Jasper.

  11. OilFire says:

    Lowetide: I have a guest on at 10:05 tomorrow morning with an update on what he saw in Jasper.

    But I wanna know now…

  12. Rondo says:

    Sounds like the prospects are going to have a fun night tonight.

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=627910

  13. godot10 says:

    Factotum Pochemuchka:
    Deadman:This is very reasonable but flies in the face of Eakins’ post-game pressers, when he talked with increasing exasperation about Jultz’ inability to “recognize danger” leading to yet another ill-advised pinch (especially on the power play)that resulted in numbers going the other way and all too often a puck in the back of the Oilers’ net.

    That being said, I appreciate your repeated caution no to read too much into the measurables during what everyone recognized tragically-early on was a lost season.

    Justin Schultz didn’t have those problems on Krueger’s power play. It was Eakins’ moronic designed power play that has leaked goals against even during his tenure with the Marlies.

    Power play goals against is a constant in Eakins’ coaching career, not in Justin Schultz’s playing career.

  14. RexLibris says:

    OilFire: But I wanna know now…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9EBhaULToU

    Sometimes the Simpsons is the best bellwether of our age. And often, this saddens me.

  15. OilFire says:

    RexLibris: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9EBhaULToU

    Sometimes the Simpsons is the best bellwether of our age. And often, this saddens me.

    Yep, that’s what I was aiming for. I think a lot of the success of the Simpsons was in putting a crystal clear reflection of all those things we feel. They maybe weren’t quite as smart as Seinfeld in the reflection, but they really capture so many things perfectly. A natural result of that is that it’s a handy reference point to get across a lot of meaning by quoting the Simpsons. I remember in undergrad (in the early 2000′s) I spent a week keeping loose track of how often people used Simpsons quotes as shortcuts, and in that heyday, it was rare to go 10 minutes without one popping up.

  16. Pouzar says:

    OilFire: But I wanna know now…

    Yakimov agility drill

    http://instagram.com/p/qHjg9RmzGX/

  17. RexLibris says:

    Took a look at some of the video coming out of the Orientation Camp.

    Notes:

    Nurse already looks like he is ready to play against men. I think his hairline is receding ahead of schedule.

    Draisaitl has a better command of the English language than Marco Roy, and appears to me to be a more thoughtful interview (and perhaps player) than some rookies his age. Also, holy hannah, I’m pretty sure he has some aberrant physiology such that he is actually just a head/shoulders perched atop two exceptionally tall legs. If he were a woman he’d be making LTs “What Does It All Mean” list. And depending on how things turn out here, he might anyways.

    Bogdan Yakimov needs to room with a countryman, kid needs someone who can help him translate. Maybe he could room with Yakupov, assuming his mother and sister are still living in Edmonton.

  18. Woodguy says:

    LT,

    Sorry to carry over from last thread, just catching up.

    You said:

    Well, that defense was fun while it lasted. :-) Balance= a mystery. One good thing, Ramsay will have both Marincin and Klefbom for the full season, and that means they’ll be better a year from now.

    I think that the hole in C is more unbalancing that the hole created if they move a D.

    RNH
    Arco
    DrySaddle
    Gordon

    The C is not good, not balanced.

    If they move Petry that leaves them with:

    Nikitin-Fayne
    Marincin-Jultz
    Ference-Klef

    That is much less unbalanced that the 4 C’s listed above.

    Its not a nice complete set of Actual NHL Dmen like if they don’t trade Petry, but:

    RNH
    Arco
    DrySaddle
    Gordon

    Can’t compete in the NHL whereas:

    Nikitin-Fayne
    Marincin-Jultz
    Ference-Klef

    Can compete in the NHL

    The C hole is bigger.

    Gotta fill it, and with someone good, not a stop gap.

  19. Woodguy says:

    Remember:

    Klef got:

    35% OZS
    3 most common partners were: Jultz, Fraser and Ference
    Put up a 0 RelCor

    He’ll be fine in the 3rd pairing.

  20. RexLibris says:

    OilFire,

    I know at my work SMRT is a regular one. Probably gets used once every week or two.

    Of course, I work with professional pop culture nerds, so there are a lot of references that get used on a near daily basis – Klaatu Barada Necktie, I’ve got a bad feeling about this, Ex-cellent (with finger-tenting), and so on.

    The funny thing about the SImpsons is that, where some Seinfeld references are vaguely situational (master of my domain, not that there’s anything wrong with that, they’re spectacular, etc), the Simpsons, and especially Homer-isms, can often be separated, canned, and used entirely out of episode context because they refer to a nugget of truth in general human experience.

    Futurama is a personal favourite, but there again much of the humour relies on situational context and character familiarity.

  21. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    If Petry gets traded, should we start a pool as to how long it takes post-press-release for the first local media member to use the word “soft” as a descriptor?

    We could have two bets: how long and which media member.

    My guess would be 1:18 seconds and Ryan Rishaug, followed by some about-face on advanced stats and a “listen, you need guys who are tough to play against and Jeff Petry was never going to be that guy”.

  22. Halfwise says:

    RexLibris: Woodguy, If Petry gets traded, should we start a pool as to how long it takes post-press-release for the first local media member to use the word “soft” as a descriptor? We could have two bets: how long and which media member. My guess would be 1:18 seconds and Ryan Rishaug, followed by some about-face on advanced stats and a “listen, you need guys who are tough to play against and Jeff Petry was never going to be that guy”.

    That is so real I am ready to believe it has already happened.

    You nailed it.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: All I know is that this is the first defense I can stare at without puking. Center is farther from the goal line. We wait.

  24. Rosco says:

    Woodguy,

    Gotta ask then… If the hole is that glaring at centre and it appears as though we are fairly balanced everywhere else then who could the Oilers get for that 2015 1st round pick. They have fairly good depth and young talent coming so why not use that bullet?

    However, I’m not sure there’s a team that has that skilled young centre available that would be worth that price… Couturier? Not enough off the cap for Philly. Nelson? Is he worth a 1st rounder to the Oilers? J. Or E. Staal? Not sure Carolina wants to split them upon the Oilers even have the cap space.

  25. Hammers says:

    Hope all the boys are having fun with Captain Ference and his army budies . No tents or sleeping bags . This is the new team building . I always thought a few dozen brewskies around a campfire loosens tongues and you find out what they really think . Any news in the a.m. may tell us a lot .

  26. VanOil says:

    Rosco: Nelson? Is he worth a 1st rounder to the Oilers?

    I posited yesterday the Oilers 1st for Nelson and NYI’s 2nd. It is not exactly a win now trade as Nelson’s proven level of performance is only 3C so far. But, with Nuge, Draisaitl, Nelson as your top 3 centers you are set in that position for many years to come. The Oilers seem to have enough experienced wingers with the additions of Purcell and Pouliot to shelter the young centers.

    Bogdan and Jujhar can learn the ropes in OKC until Gordon needs replacing or become towering wingers.

  27. Gret99zky says:

    Hear that?

    That’s the sound of MacT convincing himself to go into the season with the current batch of players.

    I bet he keeps Draisaitl and Nurse past the 9 games.

    Two more rookies on the Big Club.

    How’s that been working?

  28. Rosco says:

    VanOil,

    Now that’s not a bad deal… Especially with the Islanders not having a first next year. Tough sell to the masses with those kind of boxcars though, what with the Oilers being perennial basement dwellers and all.

  29. One-Timer says:

    Rosco:
    VanOil,

    Now that’s not a bad deal… Especially with the Islanders not having a first next year. Tough sell to the masses with those kind of boxcars though, what with the Oilers being perennial basement dwellers and all.

    Rosco, VanOil, we have the nucleus of a “Trade the McDavid Lotto Ticket” club here.

    Keep banging the drum, and maybe LT will write up a post on the idea.

    After five high picks in a row, it’s time to get away from the lottery addiction and use that thing for some help right now.

  30. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Remember:

    Klef got:

    35% OZS
    3 most common partners were: Jultz, Fraser and Ference
    Put up a 0 RelCor

    He’ll be fine in the 3rd pairing.

    On the opposite side? I can’t do it, sir. It’s asking too much.

  31. VanOil says:

    Rosco,

    I think the draft math works for the trade on the Oilers side. Brock Nelson was a 30th overall pick that is well on his way to working out. I would say that is worth at least a 20th overall pick. I don’t think the Oilers will be that good this year. But I do hope the Oilers pick will be no better than 10th overall. I think a 2nd round pick is fair compensation for the difference between the two. I am sure there is some actual math that could work this out using Draft value charts and the Cullen rating system.

    I could not imagine Snow not being desperate to get back the 1st he traded away for Vanek.

    How could any fan not cheer for a player named Brock even with his box cars not being as impressive as his Corsi.

  32. VanOil says:

    One-Timer: After five high picks in a row, it’s time to get away from the lottery addiction and use that thing for some help right now.

    Hear, hear

  33. One-Timer says:

    VanOil,

    I would argue that the 2015 1st is the ideal chip for this kind of a trade. The way this next draft is being vaunted, sounds like two 2nd-rounders would be as valuable as a 1st-rounder in any other year.

  34. One-Timer says:

    VanOil: Hear, hear

    Can we get Woodguy and Rom onto our side?

  35. Rosco says:

    One-Timer,

    Yes I’ve seen it sporadically in the comments but many seem to be hesitant to see this a viable option because of the potential lotto winnings (McDavid)… I wonder if the Oilers feel the same way or if they’ve tested the market and came back disappointed.

    For me, a deal / package that inlcudes the Oilers 2015 1st and gets Couturier out of Philly plus some cap relief is what I’d be working on if I were MacT. A C depth chart of Nuge Drais Coutur with Nurse, Klef and Schultz on D and Hall, Yak and Ebs on W in a few years looks pretty damn good… Even if Philly magically got McDavid.

  36. 8p0intgame says:

    2015 1st round pick + Justin Schultz + Oscar Klefbom to Florida for Nick Bjugstad + Dmitry Kulikov + 2015 2nd round pick, anyone?

    Line up would look like this:

    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Bjugstad-Perron-Purcell
    Gordon-Pouliot-Yakupov
    Lander-Hendricks-Acrobello
    Gazdic

    Kulikov-Nikitin
    Ference-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne

    Scrivens
    Fasth

  37. One-Timer says:

    Rosco,

    In three years or so that roster says “contender” on it, I’m pretty sure. Definitely looking at a playoff run, which would be rain in the desert.

  38. spoiler says:

    Rosco:
    One-Timer,

    Yes I’ve seen it sporadically in the comments but many seem to be hesitant to see this a viable option because of the potential lotto winnings (McDavid)… I wonder if the Oilers feel the same way or if they’ve tested the market and came back disappointed.

    For me, a deal / package that inlcudes the Oilers 2015 1st and gets Couturier out of Philly plus some cap relief is what I’d be working on if I were MacT.A C depth chart of Nuge Drais Couturwith Nurse, Klef and Schultz on D and Hall, Yak and Ebs on Win a few years looks pretty damn good… Even if Philly magically got McDavid.

    Have you seen Couturier’s contract? It might be the best value in the entire NHL.

  39. Rosco says:

    VanOil:
    Rosco,

    I think the draft math works for the trade on the Oilers side. Brock Nelson was a 30th overall pick that is well on his way to working out. I would say that is worth at least a 20th overall pick. I don’t think the Oilers will be that good this year. But I do hope the Oilers pick will be no better than 10th overall. I think a 2nd round pick is fair compensation for the difference between the two. I am sure there is some actual math that could work this out using Draft value charts and the Cullen rating system.

    I could not imagine Snow not being desperate to get back the 1st he traded away for Vanek.

    How could any fan not cheer for a player named Brock even with his box cars not being as impressive as his Corsi.

    Hey it would work for me, mainly because I could come here and get myself further educated on the best of what Brock could bring… Plus as you said, he’s a “Brock”.

    Worst case scenario would obviously be the team getting he Oilers 1st and winning the lottery… I would like them to take that chance just so I could see a young, exciting but more imporantly balanced, competitive team this year.

  40. One-Timer says:

    8p0intgame:
    2015 1st round pick + Justin Schultz + Oscar Klefbom to Florida for Nick Bjugstad + Dmitry Kulikov + 2015 2nd round pick, anyone?

    Line up would look like this:

    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Bjugstad-Perron-Purcell
    Gordon-Pouliot-Yakupov
    Lander-Hendricks-Acrobello
    Gazdic

    Kulikov-Nikitin
    Ference-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne

    Scrivens
    Fasth

    A respectable line-up that won’t make LT throw up his Crown Royal, with the added bonus that it sends the kids (LD & Nurse) back to the CHL.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Rosco:
    Woodguy,

    Gotta ask then… If the hole is that glaring at centre and it appears as though we are fairly balanced everywhere else then who could the Oilers get for that 2015 1st round pick.They have fairly good depth and young talent coming so why not use that bullet?

    However, I’m not sure there’s a team that has that skilled young centre available that would be worth that price… Couturier? Not enough off the cap for Philly.Nelson? Is he worth a 1st rounder to the Oilers? J. Or E. Staal? Not sure Carolina wants to split them upon the Oilers even have the cap space.

    2015 1st is free gold.

    It can be in play, but it has to be gold coming back. Like Couturier type get.

    Its supposed to be 2003 deep, but with Crosby and Ovechkin at the top with McDavid and Eichel, but then 8-10 kids who would be top 5 in any year and solid past that to about 45 players.

    Here’s the first round in 2003

    Marc-Andre Fleury (hahahahhahha)
    Eric Staal
    Nathan Horton
    Nikolai Zherdev
    Thomas Vanek
    Milan Michalek
    Ryan Suter
    Braydon Coburn
    Dion Phaneuf
    Andrei Kostitsyn
    Jeff Carter
    Hugh Jessiman
    Dustin Brown
    Brent Seabrook
    Robert Nilsson
    Steve Bernier
    Zach Parise
    Eric Fehr
    Ryan Getzlaf
    Brent Burns
    Mark Stuart
    Marc-Antoine Pouliot
    Ryan Kesler
    Mike Richards
    Anthony Stewart
    Brian Boyle
    Jeff Tambellini
    Corey Perry
    Patrick Eaves
    Shawn Belle

    Next’s year first is free gold. If you are giving it away, it better be gold coming back and not a stop gap.

  42. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: On the opposite side?I can’t do it, sir. It’s asking too much.

    Then put Ference over there.

  43. Rosco says:

    spoiler,

    Probably, but he can’t be a player without flaws. I mean he’s only afew months older than the Nuge! Plus, if he were here in a feature role on this team I have no doubt those flaws would be become even more exposed. The gamble would be he has the skill and willingness to improve and help this team become a dominant one sooner rather than later.

  44. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    Rosco,

    I think the draft math works for the trade on the Oilers side. Brock Nelson was a 30th overall pick that is well on his way to working out. I would say that is worth at least a 20th overall pick. I don’t think the Oilers will be that good this year. But I do hope the Oilers pick will be no better than 10th overall. I think a 2nd round pick is fair compensation for the difference between the two. I am sure there is some actual math that could work this out using Draft value charts and the Cullen rating system.

    I could not imagine Snow not being desperate to get back the 1st he traded away for Vanek.

    How could any fan not cheer for a player named Brock even with his box cars not being as impressive as his Corsi.

    I think Nelson will be a fine NHL C.

    The Oilers need a player who has been a fine NHL C for years and has miles ahead left on the odometer.

    They’ll be waiting for DrySaddle to grow up, can’t wait for the 2C to figure it out too.

    I know Nelson is older, but I want a guy with 250+ NHL games and a track record of beating 2C comp in the NHL.

    No guessing, no hoping, they have to know he’s the guy.

  45. One-Timer says:

    Woodguy,

    That was just a ridiculous draft.

    I agree, let’s get some gold back in advance.

    Because if next year looks like 2003, you know the oil is gonna take Hugh Jessiman.

  46. Lois Lowe says:

    sliderule:
    There has only been one report from Jasper.

    Is there no Al Gore in the Park or are the sessions not open to public?

    I posted yesterday about my observations, it’s just that I have nothing of value to add. CJ Ludwig is injured and has his father’s nose. It’s warm tonight and not likely to rain for longer than a few minutes. The bugs are pretty bad though so I imagine it won’t be super comfortable for them, there is almost no chance they’re having a fire. MacT and Howson were out for dinner last night and Eakins is skinnier than he looks. Also, the kids bike by my parents’ house to and from the arena, they all look very much like children.

  47. Rosco says:

    Woodguy,

    The verbal on the 2003 draft was that it was aided greatly by the lockout and the extra development time it allowed for a lot of those players. That has to have some merit, no?

  48. Lowetide says:

    People said the 2003 draft was crazy good at the time. Lockout may have helped, but it’s the best one this century.

  49. El Duderino says:

    That 2003 Draft makes an Oiler fan want to cry. Had Lowe/Prendergast thrown a dart at the board blind folded they would have done better. Unfortunately they used their brains instead. Smart boys those two.

  50. danny says:

    Rosco,

    Whenever I was a child
    I wonder what if my name had changed
    Into something more productive
    Like Roscoe
    been born in 1891
    Waiting with my aunt Roselin

    This being a music friendly blog, your username reminded me of one of the best verses from one of my personal favorite songs of all time. It’s neither famous, heralded, or classic, but amazing? Unquestionably,

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVi1EOtWECo
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVi1EOtWECo

  51. One-Timer says:

    El Duderino:
    That 2003 Draft makes an Oiler fan want to cry. Had Lowe/Prendergast thrown a dart at the board blind folded they would have done better.Unfortunately they used their brains instead.Smart boys those two.

    Don’t go to bed in a sad mood. Consider:

    By the time the Oilers are contending in 2017, all those beauties from the big bad ’03 draft will be 32 and picking up speed on the downslope.

  52. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Lowetide,

    Hurts that extra amount knowing we could have had Parise brought draft and also Perry through trade.

    Ouch.

  53. VanOil says:

    Woodguy,

    So you are saying you would not trade Robert Nilsson and Marc-Antoine Pouliot for Brock Nelson? (just being glum smart ass)

    Your point that Nelson is only proven to the 3C level is a better point. What if it was the 1st for your boy Couturier and a 2nd? Trading the pick also means you can keep Petry, a nice little bonus.

  54. TeeVee says:

    Woodguy: 2015 1st is free gold.

    It can be in play, but it has to be gold coming back.Like Couturier type get.

    Its supposed to be 2003 deep, but with Crosby and Ovechkin at the top with McDavid and Eichel, but then 8-10 kids who would be top 5 in any year and solid past that to about 45 players.

    Here’s the first round in 2003

    Marc-Andre Fleury (hahahahhahha)
    Eric Staal
    Nathan Horton
    Nikolai Zherdev
    Thomas Vanek
    Milan Michalek
    Ryan Suter
    Braydon Coburn
    Dion Phaneuf
    Andrei Kostitsyn
    Jeff Carter
    Hugh Jessiman
    Dustin Brown
    Brent Seabrook
    Robert Nilsson
    Steve Bernier
    Zach Parise
    Eric Fehr
    Ryan Getzlaf
    Brent Burns
    Mark Stuart
    Marc-Antoine Pouliot
    Ryan Kesler
    Mike Richards
    Anthony Stewart
    Brian Boyle
    Jeff Tambellini
    Corey Perry
    Patrick Eaves
    Shawn Belle

    Next’s year first is free gold.If you are giving it away, it better be gold coming back and not a stop gap.

    The “Marc-Andre Fleury (hahahahhahha)” made me laugh red wine out of my nose.

  55. Marc says:

    Zykov is another one of the four players to move down year over year

    It would be interesting to know if the analytic model didn’t like Zykov, or if it liked him about as much as Roy, who they figured would be available at the end of the round.

  56. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    Woodguy,

    So you are saying you would not trade Robert Nilsson and Marc-Antoine Pouliot for Brock Nelson? (just being glum smart ass)

    Your point that Nelson is only proven to the 3C level is a better point. What if it was the 1st for your boy Couturier and a 2nd? Trading the pick also means you can keep Petry, a nice little bonus.

    I’m not sure we can call Nelson a proven 3C at all.

    He had one NHL year so far, put up fine possession numbers and 72gp 14g 12a 26pts.

    1.41 5v5 pts/60

    He’s not a 3C yet.

    The Oilers need a real 2C.

  57. sliderule says:

    Lois Lowe: I posted yesterday about my observations, it’s just that I have nothing of value to add. CJ Ludwig is injured and has his father’s nose. It’s warm tonight and not likely to rain for longer than a few minutes. The bugs are pretty bad though so I imagine it won’t be super comfortable for them, there is almost no chance they’re having a fire. MacT and Howson were out for dinner last night and Eakins is skinnier than he looks. Also, the kids bike by my parents’ house to and from the arena, they all look very much like children.

    I would like to know if they gave the boys toy guns when they went out to play soldier.

  58. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I don’t like trading the 2015 first. I’d be much more open to trading the 2016.

    Either way, you better be getting Gold as WG says. I’ll put that as “already established level of top play, but still between 22-26, under contract (or willing to sign) for reasonable term/$$, must be a C or a D”

    ———
    Nelson didn’t play C this year. So, we can say he hasn’t established himself as a 3C or any kind of C at the NHL level yet.

    If you want to know who is or isn’t a C look at the number of draws taken:

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-faceoff-statistics/2013/

    Should be 700 and well up for a guy playing the full sched at C.

  59. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Good catch.

    Everyone was talking about him as a C and assumed they knew he was.

    He was 4th on NYI in draws taken FWIW:

    1 John Tavares 1129
    2 Frans Nielsen 1084
    3 Casey Cizikas 1011
    4 Brock Nelson 451
    5 Ryan Strome 374
    6 Peter Regin 311
    7 Josh Bailey 228
    8 Kyle Okposo 204

    Looks like Nelso and Strome were splitting time.

    Nelson’s 3 most common line mates were Clutterbuck, Bailey and Strome.

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Good catch.

    Everyone was talking about him as a C and assumed they knew he was.

    He was 4th on NYI in draws taken FWIW:

    1John Tavares1129
    2Frans Nielsen1084
    3Casey Cizikas1011
    4Brock Nelson451
    5Ryan Strome374
    6Peter Regin311
    7Josh Bailey228
    8Kyle Okposo204

    Looks like Nelso and Strome were splitting time.

    Nelson’s 3 most common line mates were Clutterbuck, Bailey and Strome.

    The situation is even more stark when you remember Tavares was injured for a lot of the season. If he’s healthy, Nelson, Strome, etc. get even less draws.

    Mind you, Strome took those draws in only 37 games. Nelson in 72.

    From twitter the other day:

    garik16 ‏@garik16 Jul 5
    @JonathanWillis @RomulusNotNuma @dstaples strome played center nearly all last year

    garik16 ‏@garik16 Jul 5
    @JonathanWillis @RomulusNotNuma @dstaples Nelson played wing nearly all of last year, might be favorite for Tavares’ left wing

  61. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: The situation is even more stark when you remember Tavares was injured for a lot of the season. If he’s healthy, Nelson, Strome, etc. get even less draws.

    Mind you, Strome took those draws in only 37 games. Nelson in 72.

    From twitter the other day:

    garik16 ‏@garik16Jul 5
    @JonathanWillis @RomulusNotNuma @dstaples strome played center nearly all last year

    garik16 ‏@garik16Jul 5
    @JonathanWillis @RomulusNotNuma @dstaples Nelson played wing nearly all of last year, might be favorite for Tavares’ left wing

    I know we have been saying that NYI has an extra C, but if I’m Snow and I just lived through having Tavares hurt for 1/2 the year, then I like playing some C’s at the wing so I have my stable full.

  62. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: I know we have been saying that NYI has an extra C, but if I’m Snow and I just lived through having Tavares hurt for 1/2 the year, then I like playing some C’s atthe wing so I have my stable full.

    The only reason I can think to part with Nielson say… is worrying over Lubo’s health or some of the younger guys on D being fully developed.

    Otherwise… why tinker?

  63. FastOil says:

    One-Timer: Rosco, VanOil, we have the nucleus of a “Trade the McDavid Lotto Ticket” club here.

    Keep banging the drum, and maybe LT will write up a post on the idea.

    After five high picks in a row, it’s time to get away from the lottery addiction and use that thing for some help right now.

    I would qualify that with ‘elite’ help right now. Trading high firsts is a mistake otherwise – free high end talent.

  64. nycoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I feel like I keep saying this until I am blue in the face. I know you know, Rom, but the rest keep saying the Isles have too many centers now. Islanders LOVE Nelson. Not as a C, but think he will score 30 goals on Tavares’ wing. He isn’t available without a stupid overpay with current, good, young players going the other way.

    They’re looking at running Nelson with Okposo and JT. And I think they did well with Grabo/Kulemin because it means Strome can break into the NHL some more on the wing and Frans Nielsen is a terrific, underrated 3C in this scenario.

  65. FastOil says:

    spoiler: On the opposite side?I can’t do it, sir. It’s asking too much.

    Not a fan of it either for D unless absolutely necessary.

  66. nelson88 says:

    nycoil,

    Off topic but do you cheer for either the Rangers or Isles? I’ve been fortunate enough to see a few of the Isles v Rangers games at MSG and also the outdoor game at Yankee Stadium. Great rivalry.

    Will be an intersting business case to watch when the Isles move to Barclays. I realize they already have a loyal fanbase but I think their young team and the franchise will finallly “turn the corner” with the move. I would buy season tickets if I lived in the NYC area.

  67. nycoil says:

    nelson88,

    Not sure if you will see this, but I’ve gone to more Rangers games because of the 4 hour round-trip commute out to Nassau. It seriously is the worst arena to get to. So I bought a 10-game pack to the Rangers this season, went to an Eastern Conference Final game, and also a couple more games. I did make it to Nassau for 3 games and it is much cheaper there and better sight lines but such a terrible trip from the City, especially on a week night.

    I do have a Tavares Captain home jersey though, and wish they were moving to Barclays this season. If they did, I probably would switch to going to see them more because I really do feel some similarities between that franchise and the Oilers. As it stands, I just like watching hockey.

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