I enjoyed yesterday afternoon’s game between the Oilers and St. Louis Blues, so if you’re hoping to see some kind of rage article prepare to be disappointed. Edmonton gives away the puck too much, there are players who aren’t effective and need to find the range, and the PK is a concern after giving up the only goal of the game. Beyond that? I like this Oilers team, more than most based on what I’ve read in the last 12 hours.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 5 Oilers prospects delivering exceptional early performances
- New DNB: 5 takeaways from the Oilers’ first 5 games
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence depth impacted by Philip Broberg’s early woes
- DNB: Warren Foegele Q&A
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers find the right fit for winger Zach Hyman?
- DNB: Another Oilers loss isn’t ideal, but it shows why they have little to be worried about
- DNB: How the Oilers can manage Connor McDavid and star players’ workloads
- Lowetide: 6 Edmonton Oilers positives from an uneven start
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers’ AHL affiliate sustain a productive prospect pipeline?
- DNB: Oilers need Jakob Chychrun or another top-4 defender, as loss to Flames shows
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers early impressions from season-opening win
- DNB: Oilers must adapt to short-handed lineup because it’s coming again
- DNB: Oilers goalie Jack Campbell enters season intent on exceeding expectations
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Evan Bouchard will be a key to 2022-23 season
- New DNB: 11 bold predictions for 2022-23 season
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Oilers’ missing pieces? Trade strategy? Breakout player? Mailbag
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: VAN, CGY, BUF, CAR, STL, PIT (Expected 4-1-1) (Actual 2-3-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI, CGY (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 5-2-2, 12 points in 9 games
- Actual October results: 2-3-0, 4 points in 5 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 2-3-0, 4 points in 5 games
My prediction for the home stand was clearly too aggressive, but I agree with coach Jay Woodcroft’s comments yesterday about being in one-goal games. The 20-game mark is a better sample, but it’s understandable that many Oilers fans react when the losses arrive more often than anticipated. I’m not sure how much you believe in what I say, but for me this is a good hockey club with fewer holes than in the past. That will make itself known. That is my belief.
SUMMARY
The goal came on the power play, and a point shot. I stared at the play for several rewinds, and can’t tell if Brett Kulak tipped the puck or screened the goalie. The PK men did allow the point shot from Torey Krug, but that’s among the least dangerous options available when facing the St. Louis power play.
- Jack Campbell had a strong night, despite the loss and relatively few shots faced. Stopped all eight HDSC, the goal against was judged to be low danger. I can’t concur. Quietly, Campbell is calming the nerves of a nation beleaguered by hundreds of goalmouth tragedies over the last 17 seasons.
- Darnell Nurse had 11 defensive zone starts, and spent much of his time defending. The four turnovers reflect a problem for Nurse since opening night. The season five games deep, he has averaged 2.33 and 2.36 giveaways per 60 over the last two seasons at five-on-five. This year? It’s 7.65 per 60. I’m not ripping Nurse, he’s the best defenseman on the team, with terrific rel numbers. The turnovers need to be reduced.
- Cody Ceci is having a larger impact offensively than in past seasons. His individual high-danger chances are 2.24 per 60 at five-on-five, many miles more than any past season. He also owns a career high in expected goal share at five-on-five. Playing McDavid does that to a person. Early days, but he’s a no fuss blue playing top pair. I appreciate him.
- Tyson Barrie drew a penalty last night, but it’s been a tough run for him early this season. He has 37 defensive zone faceoffs, 25 offensive, that’s counter to his skill set. He’s been chasing plenty, and that’s reflected in his underlying numbers. Barrie’s expected goals five-on-five is 43 percent; when he’s off the ice, Edmonton’s number is 53 percent. That’s a tell.
- Evan Bouchard’s numbers five-on-five are fantastic, except he’s 0-4 goals. His expected goals (51 percent), shot share (58 percent), Corsi (56 percent) all point to higher ground. Bouchard away from Ryan Murray: 0-0 goals, 63 percent Corsi, 62 percent expected goals, 65 percent shot share. Woodcroft and Dave Manson are smart men, and Murray-Bouchard was reduced markedly against St. Louis. As for Bouchard? I hope fans don’t hammer on him but expect a rough ride until a suitable partner is found.
- Brett Kulak is having a strange start five-on-five. His possession numbers are all low 40’s and even late 30’s, which is terrible. Yet, in just over one hour five-on-five, he’s 1-0 goals. These things even out, but it’s weird. He falls a lot.
- Markus Niemelainen is stealing time five-on-five by each game: 5:22, 8:28 and 9:25 by game. All of his underlying numbers are 50 percent plus, and he’s playing a measurably rugged style all the while. I’m impressed with this player. Giveaways too high, but he’s a rookie.
- Connor McDavid has played 90 minutes at five-on-five, the goal share is 50 percent (3-3) and things are decidedly low event. His expected goals are 47 percent. That’s a problem. I am a big fan of Kailer Yamamoto and appreciate what Evander Kane brings, but the line is just 1-1 goals over 35 minutes. It’s a weird state line for the game’s best player, suspect Oilers coaching and management is staring at a solution.
- Evander Kane has good five-on-five possession numbers but is just 1-0-1 in almost 90 minutes in the discipline. It’s early, and his shot volume is in the range of last season, but he’s in a slump.
- Kailer Yamamoto has good possession numbers, one assist, and is shooting the puck just three times per 60 minutes at five-on-five. I don’t know when they’ll move him off this line, only that it’s inevitable if his production doesn’t increase. He’s a key part of ‘On the Clock’!! He needs to deliver in order for my narrative to hold water!! Seriously, I think the organization is correct in being patient but the clock must be ticking.
- Leon Draisaitl is averaging 7.29 giveaways per 60 at five-on-five, he and Nurse are in a dead heat in the category. He has the overall boxcars but the five-on-five scoring isn’t there. Luckily, the coaching staff appears to have landed on a strong solution with LD’s current linemates. The trio has played 26 minutes together and has a 58 percent goal share. The big man isn’t rolling yet; it’ll come.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has the possession numbers of a chamption but just .96 points-per-60 at five-on-five. He’s 2-3-5 through five and had a big game against the Hurricanes, so the complaints have died down a little. His five-on-five faceoff percentage is over 55 currently.
- Zach Hyman led the Oilers with three HDSC at five-on-five, an impressive total on a low opportunity afternoon. He owns a 1.61 points-per-60 total, positively hopeful on this team. His expected goals percentage is always above 50, but currently sits at 46.5 percent. I like this line.
- Warren Foegele hasn’t pissed a drop at five-on-five but all of his possession numbers are over 50 percent. I’ve been impressed with his worth ethic and pursuit of the puck. His shots per 60 is up, HDSC down at five-on-five.
- Ryan McLeod has a goal at five-on-five (and another on the PK), 50 percent goal share and 59 percent expected goals. He is an exciting young player, learning on the fly and applying those lessons in real time. A fantastic draft pick from 2018.
- Jesse Puljujarvi is the one guy who isn’t scoring I’m not worried about, because his HDSC per 60 has increased. He also has zero turnovers on a team that hands them out like the Pillsbury Doughboy. He’s key to this line, but the No. 1 unit may need him soon.
BAKERSFIELD
Tyler Tullio scored a fantastic goal, Xavier Bourgault almost scored a better one. Both men have two points in four games. James “ramblin” Hamblin scored twice and is all over the ice every night. The defense was wretched last night, Calvin Pickard was left alone many times. Bakersfield plays again today.
Condors push hard but an empty netter seals it – Bourgault was VERY prominent in the 3rd, very.
I would say two tough goals by Rodrigue (well, one “tough one” and one awful one) were a big part of the loss.
Speakong of prospect tenders, I had previously mentioned that Fanti gave up 6 on 30 shots in his first ECHL start, well, Point gave up 7 on 37 shots in the next game……. there may be some defensive issues running down to the E.
At the risk of belaboring this, recent Stanley Cup winners and their #6 scoring forward
(pro-rated for shortened seasons, and again includes deadline adds):
2022 COL 52 (Nichushkin)
2021 TBY 45 (Coleman)
2020 TBY 48 (Palat)
2019 STL 36 (Schwartz)
2018 WSH 35 (Wilson)
2017 PIT 37 (Bonino)
2016 PIT 39 (Hagelin)
2015 CHI 38 (Vermette)
2014 LAK 30 (Dwight King)
2013 CHI 39 (Bickell/Stalberg tied #5/6)
2012 LAK 21 (Jarret Stoll, not a typo, #5 Jeff Carter had 34 pts)
2011 BOS 41 (Marchand as a rookie)
2010 CHI 40 (Brouwer)
Interesting, the last 3 winners (COL and TBY) have had better scoring #6 forwards than any of the prior 10 Cup winners.
The Oilers with Yamamoto/Puljujarvi as #6 are definitely still ‘in range’ with even the recent COL/TBY teams, and equal or better than the 10 winners before them.
You can see from the names that #6 forwards on previous Cup winners are not exactly a murders row of superstars.
Improving on Puljujarvi/Yamamoto with a Patrick Kane or whoever would obviously be great, but I don’t see it as a priority, or at all ‘necessary’ in the context for previous Cup winners.
Nice posts tonight. Thanks!
I am not remotely worried about the forward group. Especially once Holloway returns.
Rantanen 101
MacKinnon 97
Kadri 93
Burakovsky 67
Nichushkin 63
Landeskog 59
One of these numbers is incorrect. Deliberately?
Actually only one of the numbers IS correct. The other five (aside from Landeskog) are all inflated by 6-11 points.
I’m curious if there’s an explanation for this weirdness (doesn’t seem to be a simple mistake like regular season + playoff points, etc).
HH posted 21-22 & 22-23 combined regular season numbers. Strange addition to the conversation – especially since two of Colorado’s top-6 don’t even play with the organization anymore.
Bourgault in the Nuge spot on the PP, some good puck movement but he tries a cross-seam back to Griffith that is broken up but they work to retain puck possession and this time, Griffith starts to take it down low from the point, Bourgault sneaks down low as well and takes a wonderful cross-ice and fires the one-time home for a BEAUTY PP goal for his 2nd of the game.
The Bourgault goals:
https://twitter.com/bcurlock/status/1584341539920424960
https://twitter.com/bcurlock/status/1584350820371673091
Nice goals.
Maybe as much as anything the story should be that Bourgault is a regular(?) penalty killer by pro game #5.
Good stuff all around for the young man.
Yup, that is good point an notable. I recall McLeod being on the PK from the very beginning but its not common, that’s for sure.
He’s also worked his way up to PP1, at least spotted there.
As expected, The Bourg is turning the A into the Assimilation Hockey League.
Thanks for the updates.
Goodness me, after killing off a power play, the most harmless of all dumb is flubbed by Rodrigue – the puck going slower than a medium pass, right to the side of the net, off the heal of Rodrigue’s stick, through his legs, in front to an attacker for one of the worse goalie blunders you’ll ever see.
He was playing well early but that’s two bad goals now – both killers.
Looking a bit more at the quality of the actual top 6 forwards that teams employed last season (my earlier post melded a bit into top 9).
This is the #6 scoring forward for each of the 13 NHL teams that had 100 or more points last season (including all 4 conference final teams). This list includes also deadline/in season adds, so should properly reflect the quality of playoff rosters.
Sorted by most to least points by each teams #6 scoring forward:
STL 58
FLA 55
COL 52*
TOR 51
BOS 44
MIN 44
TBY 44*
PIT 42
EDM 41*
CAR 40
CGY 39
NYR 33*
WSH 31
*denotes final 4 team
(I also included 41 points (Yamamoto) as the Oilers number even though Kane (39 pts) was the true #6 because Kane’s games missed weren’t injury related and he’d clearly have been over 60 points otherwise)
For me the main take home here is that 4 teams had 6 players score 50+ points, and basically all the rest (including 3 of the 4 conference finalists) were in the ~35-44 point range.
The real question is where the Avs d-men fit in to this…….
Gabriel Landeskog was Colorado’s 6th highest scoring forward last season with 59 points.
He missed 31 games due to injury.
Landeskog was their 5th highest scoring forward. JP was correct: Nichushkin was their 6th highest scoring forward. You mistakenly included Makar when you glanced at their stats.
Rantanen 101
MacKinnon 97
Kadri 93
Burakovsky 67
Nichushkin 63
Landeskog 59
JP was not correct
Due diligence HH!!
Nichushkin: 62GP, 25G, 27A = 52 points.
Yes, JP was correct because he checks his numbers before he posts.
You “forgot” to reset your filter to 21-22 only – your numbers include 22-23 scoring too.
There’s have to have been some manual adding since, as you note 2 of the forwards now play for different teams. I don’t think there’s a filter that can mistakenly add numbers across teams.
Yes, it’s quite strange. Certainly his numbers are false though.
I don’t think Colorado will repeat. They have a lot of offense from their defense, but they’re a one line team now with suspect goaltending. They aren’t an overly intimidating opponent, even when healthy.
Condors down 3-2 after.
Really fun game to watch – watching the likes of Bourgault, Tulio, Philp, etc. develop in real time. AHL TV does a great job and its only like 60 bucks for the year for those that have interest, I encourage it.
Bourgault with some aggressive PK and a good stick forces a bad pass back to the point, he blows by all the RoadRunners, down the right side and snaps home his first pro goal far side off the rush.
Now, Bourgault, with points in 3 straight, is on PP1.
Love it.
Borg is a player – full stop
Wow – Graham McPhee.
After some nice work down low in the offensive zone by Kemp (yes, Kemp), McPhee was a great play to keep a puck alive and then went for a 10 second skate in the offensive zone, across the blue, down low, drops to Kielb who buries a snap shot from the circles.
For some reason, Kesselring has not come out for the beginning of the second period.
He’s returned now – missed the first 5 minutes (apx).
Condors dominate the first 10 minutes or so, line after line, but no goals.
They take a penalty but, unlike last night, do a great job on the kill (and Hamblin with the best scoring chance thereon). For some reason, that did turn the mo though as Tuscon has come on for the last 5-7 minutes and it results in a goal where a lost board battle (board scrum) in the defensive zone results in the puck from the point off a skate an in. Griffith may have been culpable cheating over allowing the point shot.
I am posting because the Condors allow a high danger chance seconds after the goal is scored and Rodrigue with a big save – that’s the type of save you need from your tender.
Ooop, as a type that, on another PP, Tuscon takes the lead – Rodrigue can’t handle the shot from the top of the circles – it bounces off him and sits there for an easy bang in goal.
With all the talk about the wingers not being good enough, I figured it was time for my annual ‘what is a top 6 winger’ post.
Using NHL.com stats from last season, and the 96 forwards per line as a proxy (not sorting for only RW or LW since lots of centers play wing) 1st, 2nd, 3rd line scoring is as follows:
1st line 55-123 points
2nd line 34-54 points
3rd line 22-33 points
As a reminder, Oilers forwards scored:
McDavid 123
Draisaitl 110
Hyman 54
Nuge 50
Yamamoto 41
Kane 39
Puljujarvi 36
Foegele 26
Ryan 22
McLeod 21
So, based only on scoring rates, 2 x 1st line forwards (with Hyman on the actual cusp, and Kane scoring at top 45F rates). 5 x 2nd line forwards and 2 more 3rd line forwards.
(that’s 7 x top 6 forwards, for those keeping track)
Do contending teams have more ‘top 6’ forwards than the Oilers?
Calgary had 5 (34 points or more)
Carolina had 9
Colorado had 6
Florida had 8
Minnesota had 8
NY Rangers had 4
St. Louis had 9
Tampa Bay had 8
Toronto had 7
-Some do, some don’t (and I should also say this doesn’t include deadline additions)
And FWIW, NHL forwards salaries this season:
1st line $5.625M-$12.5M
2nd line $3.2M-$5.5M
3rd line $1.4M-$3.15M
So, FWIW, Yamamoto and Puljujarvi both scored like top 6 forwards/wingers last season, and both are being paid like (high end) 3rd line forwards this season.
Colorado also had two defensemen who scored at 1st line rates…three top 6 equivalents if you count Byram’s pace.
As the game features modern D more and more, this shouldn’t be discounted.
The Oilers actually did have 3 defensemen who scored as top 6 forwards (Bouch, Nurse and Barrie), though obviously none in the same class as Makar.
Point pace this season:
Makar – 82
Byram – 68
Toews – 62
Girard – 41
Thats 4 D scoring at top 6 rates by your reckoning.
3 of them are on pace to score more than all but McDavid and Draisaitl did last season although Kane may have something to say about that.
Small sample size, seems simple; some seek scrutiny, some sensationalism.
Seriously, seek social sustenance somewhere else.
Makar is a bumb. Mats Zuccarello (modern NHL forward, this needs to be considered when discussing Avalanche defensemen) is on pace to score 164 points this season. Rasmus Andersson (post-modern NHL defenseman) is on pace for 98 points! Wowaweeee!!!!
You should start your own blog dedicated to Avalanche dmen! I would absolutely love to read your nuanced and interesting opinions on Makar and Byram! What are their favourite Slurpee flavours? Desert island movie picks? What’s Makar’s relationship like with his dad? Pepsi or coke?
Packers lose to Washington
Bucs lose to the hapless Panthers. ( fired coach, traded best player and injured both QBs)
Maybe Tom should have kept his word to Gisele
I don’t think there’s any question giveaways/turnovers are an issue for the Oil in the early season.
Team giveaway/takeaway stats are here (not 100% sure whether they’re 5v5 or overall though):
https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?report=realtime&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20222023&seasonTo=20222023&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=hits&page=0&pageSize=50
(it’s just team stats on NHL.com under ‘miscellaneous’)
Oilers are worst in the league so far this season with 16.0 giveaways/60.
Tough to know what to think of the numbers though, looking at how good/bad teams ranked last season.
Last year the best teams in the league (fewest giveaways) were Colorado, TBay and Minnesota. That fits the eye test for less=good. But then Columbus, Vancouver, Buffalo, Detroit, Seattle follow in the top 10.
Last years Oilers were 7th worst (most) in giveaways, but the ‘worst’ 10 teams also included Florida, Toronto, Calgary and Carolina (all worse than the Oilers).
So while the Oilers surely do need to cut down on their giveaways and turnovers, the simple giveaways=bad assumption doesn’t really pass the smell test.
Summarizing!
Petrov and Brind’Amour each tallied a goal in wins today. The latter also went 10-for-18 (55.6%) on the dot.
The game betwixt Wanner’s Warriors and Regina has been postponed due to an early appearance by Old Man Winter, closing roads around MJ.
Prospecting takes a break until Wednesday, when said game will be made up.
Thank you
No surprise but Rodrigue gets his second start of the season,
Kielb is back in (for Alex Peters).
Defensive group as a whole struggled last night – Kesselring is leading the group (and was a good last night, one of the few) but after the top 3 (with Kemp and Dembers), with Broberg out and Niemo up (and Sammy traded), it drops off a bit (although Kaldis has his games and moments).
Lets see if the late switch of Bourgault over Kambeitz on PP1 holds and if that fourth/kid line can get upsized ice after a great game last night (Philp/Engras/Tulio).
Some line tweaks:
Kostin/Malone/Griffith
Hamblin/McKegg//Bourgault
Engras/Philp/Tulio
Kambeitz/Esposito/McPhee
Hotl mentioned Philp in the middle on that line – it has previously been Engras.
Brind’Amour breaks a tie as he goes in on a partial breakaway and snipes:
https://mobile.twitter.com/QU_MIH/status/1584288571946520576?cxt=HHwWgMCqif6Dw_wrAAAA
Time runs out before you know it
now known as – HUNTER1909’S OILERS DYNASTY MARCH™
Here is how it works.
Same rules same everything and all of the previous records will be retained for posterity.
Here is how to play: Predict the total points that Oilers finish the season with.
Tie breakers:
a) – How many points Connor McDavid gets
b) – how many goals Leon Draisaitl scores
c) – Where Oilers finish(1-16th in the West)
To Recap:
1 – Predict Oilers final regular season point total
2 – Connormcdavid points
3 – leondraisatl goals
4 – oilers finish in the West(1-16)
DEADLINE: PUCK DROP PENGUINS GAME
PS:IF this post gets more dislikes than likes then it all might get extended for another game, or more
a) 104
b) 136
c) 51
d) 6th
Thank you hags9k
Death March is looking for memorabilia donations to redistribute as prizes during the upcoming NHL season. Also, someone in the Edmonton area to help coordinate the distribution of these prizes, which we hope to start announcing asap.
Thank you for your cooperation.
1) 99
2) 130
3) 51
4) 7
Thank you for doing this!
Still early for panic but this upcoming week is a big one. Four games in six days, three against tough opponents with strong starts to the season and the only lesser team is the second game of a back to back and the third game in four nights with travel between each game. It’s a tough stretch and one that could really put the team in a hole to start the season if they don’t sharpen up. Certainly won’t make or break the season but I could see feelings running high a week from now…
Better get their act together because a Washington Tampa Carolina Florida road trip week is coming up just around the corner
An odd road trip.
4 games in 6 nights.
Play in Washington, fly to Tampa, fly to Carolina and then fly back to Florida.
You point is very valid but Washington has no Backstrom and no Wilson.
Very different team.
Cast off Dylan Strome is the 2C and continues his yearly pursuit of the NHL green Jacket.
Addition:
TJ Oshie turns 36 in a few weeks….and from my very brief viewings of him appears to have lost a step.
All true…but the Caps are 3-1 at home.
We’ll see.
Okay…who had Phil Kessell setting the all time iron man record next week?
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-milestone-watch-phil-kessel-goes-all-in-with-golden-knights/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCF84E1UwAEeNpm?format=jpg&name=small
Good for Phil. Wonder where he ends up in the convo for best USA players.
Hall of the very good
Or more.
Over 1200 games played, over 1000 points, 400 goals, two cups and perhaps 1000 straight games played.
Quite a career.
Incredible career
Petrov breaks a deadlock halfway through the third with his 4th goal of the season.
Blink and you’ll miss it.
what a release. Wow!
Last year, the Blues were one of the teams that scared me the most and they have shown up again. We played ok, but will always struggle with such a well organized team defense.
Kulak’s playoffs made me dream he could replace Keith, but he has not been a stabilizing presence. Add that to the fact it robbed our third pair of Kulak and replaced him with a rookie and things look tough to fix with no cap space. Will internal growth come to the rescue again?
Good point.
As DeBrusk mentioned, things were going very well for them in the playoff series against Colorado. Until Kadri….eliminated Bennington.
i don’t think or see anyone panicking really.
(Have no doubt McDavid and Drai elevate and Kane and Hyman start cashing.)
We are seeing a continuation of certain players not producing.
Kailer is not really noticeable for most shifts to start here.
JP has no goals and it almost goes without saying Foegele has no goals so far.
That is 3 top 9 wingers pitching shutouts. One of them is on the ice with McDavid even. That is hard to do.
No need to point out what Shore and Ryan have done.
I think the 3rd looks okay because of McLeod. McLeod continues to elevate his play and his speed was even able to overcome the St.Louis molasses.
This org. *Needed/ Required * both JP and Yamamoto to turn into complimentary wingers for our 2 gods. ( okay at least 1 of them)
I am not sure that is happening
Kailer Yamamoto is 24
Jp is 24
Again, it is early….maybe these guys come on yet. Still, in a general way – It feels like it is warranted to have some concern here.
( no panic)
The players you mentioned do not play on the power play and the team 5 v 5 so far has been a disaster. There are bigger issues on this team than the two RW. Team defence 5 v 5, limting the shots against, puck movement out of the d-zone, playing ugly trap hockey when the opposition clogs the neutral zone, and replacing Murray on defence, all are higher up in the pecking order than Yamo and Jesse.
One is 24″ and the other 24′. Need to find a happy medium.
As it stands, the Oilers have to top… the Kraken over 82 games to get into the playoffs.
I know that’s a low bar, but good to keep things in perspective.
They will have to top the Kings at the end of the day
This my be true but, while making the playoffs is definitely the most important hurdle, I think most/many were hoping/expecting for a bit of a more solidified playoff spot near the top of the conference – on earned merit.
An issue with Nurse I noticed a few times this season is his instincts with gap control on entries.
For example Svechnikov coming into the zone, instead of closing the gap to disturb the shot, Nurse maintains a large gap and plenty of ice for a dangerous semi screened shot from the high/middle slot
This team has the talent on it. Certainly, they could improve a little over here and a little bit over there – but built “as is” there is plenty of talent available.
Its not a problem per se, but I think the answer right now lies in coaching. This is not a slight on Woody either.
Watch other NHL games, then watch how teams adapt for the Oilers, they gap up, pinch, force the D, much tighter. “Take away time and space” applies to all teams but you watch it applied to the Oil. Other teams not only deny the blueline, they keep the Oil to the outside, where our guys are pretty happy playing keep away.
Leon is predictable. Anytime he touches the puck he will attempt a pass, risky or not. Read the pass.
D men are good at standing by their man, take the stick, but would rather not engage physically. “Get in front and get rebounds” against the Oil
Couple quick examples only, but my point being, the coach needs to counter. He cannot let the team remain with one dimensional offence, tactics or habits.
Just my Sunday thoughts.
You’re bang on!!
I rarely post on Puljujarvi as he is such a polarizing player. He is where he should be, on the third line where he should be able to settle in and contribute. Two problems though; he still persists with his big swoops, curls, and constantly out of position. Is this a problem? Maybe not if he can settle in with linemates. But the problem is that for all the ice he covers, he does not touch the puck much. To my eye, Foegele and McLeod are driving that line with Jessie doing some hitting and backchecking but not advancing the puck. He is the new Drake.
The second problem is #1RW is also not contributing. Touch decision. Let things play out or go back to square one with Jessie on top line. Everyone is playing the Oilers tight, and its hard to make those small tic-tac-toe plays when you constantly have new linemates.
There are way bigger problems than Jesse to worry about. Jesse can play on any of the lines.
Caggiula made every line he was on worse. Puljujarvi makes every line he is on better. That is what the advanced stats show.
Thanks Godot!
Many Oilers not playing their “best hockey” right now. With that in mind, and considering the tough schedule on the homestand, 2-3 is not an awful start (even if disappointing).
Roster issues aside, Woodcraft’s top priority IMO should be getting Draisaitl cooking away from McDavid. He’s looked a little flat.
Blues really gummed up the neutral zone and limited rush opportunities. I thought Calgary did a good job of that too.
Dcore doesn’t have much snarl to it, nor did it last year. Would be nice to get some more puck movement and size — tall order for Holland.
Early impressions –this is a contender quality forward group anchored by a below average dcore. That said, I think/hope Kulak and Bouchard will find their A games sooner rather than later.
Could not agree more with LT on Nurse. Been a charter member of the Nurse fan club since his drafting.
Still am.
But a close cousin of the turnovers are the steady stream of *unforced* icings. ( waste of a clear possession imo)
Starting to grate on me candidly.
This Oilers team seems to be better in the second half of the season for whatever reason so I’m not panicking. Holland needs to see who steps up and fills roles from now until the trade deadline. Right now the most obvious hole is from Duncan Keith’s departure who’s position was not filled. Lot’s of veterans not playing well and the most notable to me are Ceci, Draisaitl and Kulak. Now onto the 3 million dollar forwards Jesse, Yamamoto and Foegele. Not sure what the Oilers have here with these guys as some of them may have benefited from playing with Mcdavid and Draisaitl and now have inflated contracts. Yamamoto is getting nothing done out there and although Jesse has been very good defensively I can’t remember the last time he made a good play offensively. Maybe last fall? The Oilers do seem to have lots of good prospects pushing from below so there is hope.
Campbell was very solid yesterday-no question.
But the winning goal Came from distance. Mr. Krug dialed 1 …before he shot it.
I initially thought it was a “bad goal” even though it was an absolute bomb but, the more I think about it, I think the Kulak screen was substantial and the one-time bomb came off two seam passes in succession where the goalie is moving. Yes, part of a goalie’s job is to fight through screens but that’s a tough shot with the puck movement, etc.
Fair…could have been a screen.
I don’t think it was a bad goal at all. I believe he was screened for just the wrong split second. Also I watched it a few times and saw the highlights again later so in about 5 real time viewings have yet to see the actual puck. It was an absolute rocket.
1) Got to start off with a shout out to Ty Tulio – As LT stated, that was a fantastic goal. That’s not four straight games of “game over game improvement”. The kid has exceeded my expectations as I thought he’s struggle a bit with the speed and strength. That goal that Bourgault almost scored, almost a blue line to net, through the entire team goal. He’s coming as well.
2) To be honest, I think I can critique the forward deployment a bit last night. The McDavid line had nothing going on – they were never able to get the puck with time and space and never able to get McDavid the puck with speed in the neutral zone. There were a couple rushes by McDavid, of course, but Leddy played him wonderfully. The line spend numerous shifts running around in their own zone. At the same time, Woody seemed to have no interest in trying to get them some softer minutes, to get them away from that D-paring. McDavid played 14:15 at 5 on 5 vs. Leddy and 13:30 vs. Paryako and was also pretty much hard-marched against O’Riley and Saad. It wasn’t working and Woody didn’t seem to try and get McDavid on the ice against others.
I’m not sure that Shore and Ryan over the likes of Jesse with minute left (right after the EN goal) is the way I’d go either.
This is probably more Manson but not sure Murray earned 2 more minutes than Niemo last night (I thought Niemo has a solid game).
3) The 3rd line was the best line last night and Jesse was part of that but, yet, Yamamoto played the 3rd most at 5 on 5 among forwards and 5 minutes more than Jesse. I’m not saying Jesse should have been swamped up to 1RW given how good the 3rd line was but Yamamoto as far as “earning ice time”, I don’t see Kailer earning 5 more minutes at evens than Jeese.
4) All the talk for months abut which of the “3 million dollar men” to move for cap space and, here we are, 5 games in the season and those men have a grand total of zero goals (in 15 aggregate games) and I think only on assist (Kailer) – I thought Jesse and Warren both had good games last night but we are where we are and the trio of Kailer, Jesse, Warren have zero goals on the season. Where is this offensive depth?
5) I think there have been some good individual performances (overall) among the D and some underwhelming but overall something just isn’t messing with the group. I look forward to Broberg having the Klefbom-esque draft plus 4 impact……… Come on Phil!
I would suggest that the trio of Warren, Kailer & Jesse are third line forwards. While I’m at it, since there doesn’t seem to be any better options for McDavid’s RW maybe they should give Warren a shot. However, I have to say, MacLeod & Foegele definitely are displaying good chemistry together. It’s a tough call.
Sure reinforces the lack of a market for the 3 million dollar men.
Teams have lots of players that can pitch shutouts for cheaper.
The Kane -McCloud – YAMO line could cause fits
Mcdavid could play with Foegle it worked a bit last year.
Foegle-Mcdavid- Pulijarvi
RNH- Drai- Hyman
these lines are balanced 😀 but mcdavid i guess has his say on line mates
The giveaways stat is deeply problematic. It doesn’t account for many obvious times the puck is turned over. This is an area where either teams have something they don’t share out, or a new stat is needed.
Oilers turn over pucks. The exact total may not be available, but my goodness there are many every game.
Yes, but a great number of these are not accounted for in a stat.
For instance – every blind zone clear straight to the other team is absolutely a giveaway – and yet these are not counted.
I’m betting they have a stat that is being kept proprietary and private for these and many other situations.
I would imagine individual teams track this closely.
My understanding is that most teams also look closely at zone exits and entries
X 10000
I would agree with HH that this data is almost certainly tracked, both by the teams and by outsourcing.
Even SportLogiq covers most of what you are writing about (if I understand correctly).
I would also suggest that you that is not just Oilers players making these mistakes and that they are happening (at similar rates) throughout the league. We watch the Oilers nightly and we see ALL of their mistakes and poor plays and I think it leads us to believe/think the Oilers are making these plays more than other teams which isn’t necessarily the case.
All teams make poor zone exit plays, all teams ice the puck without cause, etc..
Posted at NHL66…
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Vpn or no, no longer works no matter what I try.
I find putting my VPN to Germany then loading the site works
Same here. I’ve resorted to using onhockey.tv lately, as the sportsurge list is a bit of a crap shoot.
For all those who ran Smith and Keith out of town… stats don’t show leadership and the ability to hold teammates to account…important attributes both men brought and Oilers could do with more of!
I don’t believe anybody ran Smith & Keith out of town .
Idaho has kind of a “weird state line” too
I miss Keith and Bouch. The best is to move Murray away sooner than later.
Can you guys smell that tire fire from Vancouver yet?
Dont worry though the Sedins are on it.
Vancouver, San Jose and Anaheim….LA is struggling and we have an expansion team.
Lots of time for us to really hone in and figure out how best to deploy Ryan Murray.
but they didn’t blow a lead last night……
I have always thought that Yamamoto would be most effective on the 3rd line. He is talented and his talents will shine vs lesser opponents. This is a team that has been far too reliant on the 2 düds for years, but the antidote is to spread out the scoring.
Kane – McAwe-PoolParté
Nuge – Drai – Hyman
Foegele – McFast – Yamo
Hollywood* – Ryan – Kostin**
* Would benefit playing 10 games in the AHL to get his confidence back
** Not ready for prime time yet, but stick him on a line with Holloway and Hamblin for 10 games and see what develops. Need a player (or 2) like him in the bottom 6.
Couldn’t agree more Yamamoto would be most effective on the third line. Either Jesse or Kailer would be effective on a third line with MacLeod & Foegele. Neither belong in the top six. Which leads to the need for a proper top six RW to play with McDavid & Kane. There are two areas that need an upgrade, #1 top four LHD & #2 top six RW. Easier said than done.
Kostin sure is a plus player from the red line out at the AHL level – He’s big, fast, aggressive, skilled and has a big shot. He drew PPs last night early as well.
He’s also a tire fire away from the puck and on the other half of the ice.
I do agree he has a skill-set this team could really use but I’m not sure he’s playable due to there issues……
“He also has zero turnovers on a team that hands them out like the Pillsbury Doughboy” – beauty, eh.
This is what is killing the team right now. Stop the bleeding turnovers (unforced errors) and this ship will get back on course.
I also think this would be worth trying for a few games (when Hollywood is back)
Kane-McD-JP
Nuge-Drai-KY (remember the DYNamite?!)
Holloway-McLeod-Hym
Foegele-Ryan
If Holloway can’t get back to pre-season form after 4 games, send him down for a month or so…
Hopefully Bro can recuperate quickly get a few weeks in down south, come up and never turn back.
Sorry, I just don’t see how you could put Hyman down on the third line and place JP up there with Mcdavid & Kane. Especially when we all saw (Foegele-Macleod-Puljujarvi) form a solid third line combo.
Do you believe that Kailer is, and has been, more effective on 1RW than Jesse has been in the past?
No, as I said earlier, both Kailer & Jesse are third liners. Neither belong in the top six.
IMO
Aiming for a top 9 rather than a top 6 🙂
Seems like you’ll get plenty of opportunities to watch more of the same.
The Oilers constantly giving up the first goal.
The defence is still not good enough.
The offence fires blanks while bragging about being an offensive powerhouse. They got the offensive part right, at least. Maybe score some goals before you tell everyone how great you are and how easy it is for your team to score goals.
Campbell has a good game and gets zero run support?
Moral victories and winning the fancy stats. Yay. Same as it ever was.
We need a top pairing D if the Oilers want to go to the cup. Nurse has never been the consistent top pairing D.His hockey IQ is not high enough for that position
I’m not worried the team will correct. I thought they played ok yesterday but also are still out of synch offensively at times.
It gets late early though, I think winning tomorrow is important for their psyche and I expect they will win that game.
They started like a house on fire under Tippett and faded so badly that it took a coaching change to get them back into the playoff mix. Different coach and this season definitely feels different to start. The back end misses Keith in a big way.
Keith is definitely a case of absence makes the heart grow fonder. People were critical
because he wasn’t the Keith of Chicago prime but he was a steady hand that they are sorely missing.
I think people were critical of the cap hit attached to Keith
Of course, the cap hit attached to Keith was the only reason the trade wasn’t a slam-dunk win. If Keith came with a $2.25MM cap hit last year, that’s a different trade.
As far as on ice, absolutely, 100%, there are MANY who were highly critical of Keith’s play – from his first game to his last. Never missing an opportunity to point out any mistake, even if one needed to be stretched to find, or purely made up. For some, I’m sure it was inability to analyze the play without reference to cap hit, for others, I’m not sure why blind critisism was the game but we were there for sure.
Leon isn’t up to speed yet and when his feet aren’t moving he ends up getting too cute with passes that often go astray. Hopefully it’s early season rust and not his ankle still bothering him.
I’ll never understand why some people can’t see how effective Puljujarvi is. My understanding is that Jesse played a lot of bandy when he was younger, and this likely accounts for his unique style that the, let’s call them the Spector crowd, don’t approve of. Whichever line 13 goes out with suddenly becomes a position monster and spends most of their shifts in the opposition end. I think he’s great with McLeod and Foegele but it does appear that he is needed for Mcdavid’s line.
Are we already at the need for a top RW?
Yamamoto and Puljujarvi both bring some solid stuff, but lack high end scoring. Both at this moment look like good two way 3rd liners.
And foegele is more 4th line scoring wise as well.
I still believe moving one of Puljujarvi or Yamamato and upgrading RW is key. I understand cap issues, etc. but that is a key to the season I expect.
Honest question. What can we upgrade at D? Is it a stay at home D man? Do you move Barrie and get a better defensive defenseman? Or do you push for a 2 LD that can play bigger minutes with Bouchard then shelter your 3rd D pair.
Yamamoto is currently highly ineffective as 1RW.
I don’t disagree that Jesse is really a “middle six” guy right now but I do think he helps that top line. They don’t get hemmed in nearly as often as they do with Kailer and spend more time with the puck.
Hyman is obviously the one guy that is a legit top 6 guy.
The “anyone can score 30 with McDavid” verbal is simply not true and, frankly, he may actually be a tough guy to mesh with given McDavid’s unique skill set. Of course Kailer (and previously this year) Jesse, have to do more while up there….
I’m not sure how they move Kailer/Jesse and upgrade? What’s the structure of that trade, Jesse plus a 1st for a “more established” RW at the same price point?
Unless things really go off the rails standing wise, I think they likely stand pat on the backend and see what happens when Broberg is healthy and in the lineup and if he can solidify and/or press for more. There is some speculation his shoulder was hurt in rookie camp and wondderance if it was part of his underwhelming (but not bad) camp?
Swaping Barrie for a more defensive minded right D is a thought but, subject to Broberg, it looks like there may need to be a substantial upgrade on the left side and I can’t see two material moves
Orlov and Graves are two that come to mind (expiring contracts) that aren’t talked about much.
Prospectipaction!
A trio of NA amateurs will suit up in matinee affairs.
Skyler, Son of Rod and his Quinnipiac squad entered the weekend #3 in NCAA rankings, though they were blanked yesterday. They get another crack today.
Petrov and Wanner, unlike Van Halen, will spend Sunday afternoon in the rink and not the park.
North Bay (Petrov) @ noon
Quinnipiac (Brind’Amour) @ 2 p.m.
Moose Jaw (Wanner) @ 4 p.m.
All times, as always, are Bodo time.
Bodo. In chronological order: Home of the Bodo Archeaological Site and Centre, terminus of the Bodo Subdivision which originated in Unity Sk. and birthplace of the notorious Brien Krempien. Thanks for all your thoughtful and entertaining contributions Tarkus.
I didn’t watch but I saw comments like “Nurse couldn’t hit McDavid with a 10 foot pass”, “this is the worst I’ve seen Draisaitl since his rookie year”, and lots of “reminded me of a Lemaire Minnesota Wild steel trap game from 2003”.
Glad I missed it.
You could have Scotty Bowman, Glen Sather and Jay Woodcroft behind the bench and Hasek in net but it’s a Saturday Matinee Game.
While yesterday afternoon certainly looked like “old time”, I think the Oilers broke that mantoinee game issue a while ago and have actually been pretty good over the last few years, likely really good for a stretch as well. Caveat: I haven’t gone back and checked their record over the last few years but I think I have in the past and I think I’m right (although I usually do and am often proven wrong…. ha).