MOON (OVER) MARTIN

Martin Marincin was a second-round pick four years ago. As you may recall in our recent look at selections 31-60 over the last number of years, about 28% of the picks in that round deliver 100 or more NHL games. Marincin is already (basically) halfway there, and has a very good chance to pass that number this coming season. When he was drafted by Edmonton, the common themes were a strong U18 tournament, a lanky body type, and some two-way ability.

  • Red Line Report (No. 50 ranking) Tall Lanky D with a huge frame to fill out. Good skating ability for his size; Pivots well and shows good agility, though he lacks balance and acceleration. Skates with head up and looking for plays – smooth puck handler with good passing touch. Reads play quickly and makes good decisions. Doesn’t force things that aren’t there. However, once he makes his outlet pass, his arms sag to his side and he’s not interested in trying anything else offensively. Lacks an aggressive mindset and rarely ventures off the blue line at offensive end. Inconsistent defensively – positioning in own zone needs improvement. Tough to beat 1-on-1 off the rush because of his mobility and long reach, but can be beaten in tight by quick, shifty forwards. Counts mostly on the pokecheck and skating ability rather than using his big body, but is improving in the physical aspect and does a good job pinning men against the wall.
    Projection: Big, shutdown #4-5 dman;  Style compares to: Lavislav Smid (with a better shot).

We followed him through junior, and he adapted quickly in the jump from WHL to AHL—that’s a tough adjustment for a lot of players, and Marincin seemed to take to it immediately (although he did suffer some growing pains in year one). His pre-draft size (6.01, 187) suggested he would be at least NHL average once mature, and the team website now lists him at 6.04, 188—three inches taller, but same weight (I never trust these things, but he’s clearly tall and lean).

westcott marincinThere’s not much wrong with this young man. He’s mobile, can pass the puck, makes efficient plays and has a massive wingspan. The Oilers want him to be more physical—he’s going to by shy of Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom in this area—and he needs to win more battles for the puck and be more intimidating to opponents.

MARTINMARINCIN 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.35 (5th among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.66 (3rd among regular D)
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among regular D
  • Qual Team: best available among regular D
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 47.5
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: +7.0
  • Zone Start: 45.5% (2nd toughest among regular D)
  • Zone Finish: 43.7% (worst among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 28 shots
  • Boxcars: 44, 0-6-6

Marincin represents the latest example of a player Edmonton discovered (it was a Musil find), drafted and developed. He should be the template for the organization and Marincin’s arrival three-and-a-half years after his draft day is an extremely reasonable timeline for the best and the brightest in the system. There’s plenty of chatter about who might get sent out this fall if Darnell Nurse performs well, but I can’t see Marincin being that guy. The last defenseman to step in and perform this well—Jeff Petry—never did return to Oklahoma territory.

Suspect it’s the same with the tall tree from Kosice.

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27 Responses to "MOON (OVER) MARTIN"

  1. D says:

    I’m channeling the spirit of Chara in his direction.

  2. Spydyr says:

    Best defencman on the Oilers last year.he is not going anywhere.

  3. Lois Lowe says:

    He needs to eat more ice cream. Lots more ice cream.

  4. hunter1909 says:

    Marincin likes to bully smaller players. He’s great.

  5. Gordies Elbow says:

    hunter1909,

    Yep.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O86IXbsfML0

    I think that there’s more to Marincin than meets the eye.

  6. FTO says:

    Man did I love his game last year, would love a future D core of him Nurse and Klefbom in the future (if they all turn out that is I suppose). Such a superb young defenseman.

    Are advanced stats perhaps going to benefit defensive defensemen the most in the future? As up until now all we had to go on was plus minus and the eye test, because guys like MM have value but the only way he would be known league wide for it would be the Vollman Sledgehammer and other such tools.

    We in for a future of that beautiful graph explaining players valuations beyond the boxcars on TSN or Sportsnet?

  7. Hammers says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    hunter1909,

    Yep.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O86IXbsfML0

    I think that there’s more to Marincin than meets the eye.

    Totally agree . I felt a year ago he was ahead of both Nurse & Klefbom . Until they both play a regular NHL season I feel the same way . One thing I would have liked is not 5 extra lbs but 15 .This player makes me feel McGregor is the real deal more than any other pick .I liked him from the beginning and having said that Nurse & Klefbom are no slouches but picked earlier . I’m just glad McT saw fit not to trade him away .Players drafted and brought along like Martin show we areat least on the right track . Thank God for that .

  8. Lowetide says:

    FTO: So far advanced stats haven’t really helped the cause, but as WG has mentioned here recently if we begin measuring “sorties delayed or squashed” we may find the gems. It would make sense we already know who they are (fewer SA/60) but we’ll peer farther into the abyss, perhaps identifying useful playing with useless, and not (so far) receiving credit.

  9. Hammers says:

    Hammers: Totally agree . I felt a year ago he was ahead of both Nurse & Klefbom . Until they both play a regularNHL season I feel the same way . One thing I would have liked is not 5 extra lbs but 15 .This player makes me feel McGregor is the real deal more than any other pick .I liked him from the beginning and having said that Nurse & Klefbom are no slouches but picked earlier . I’m just glad McT saw fit not to trade him away .Players drafted and brought along like Martin show we are at least on the right track . Thank God for that .

  10. justDOit says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I’m glad to hear he’s only gained 5 pounds this summer. He’s proven to be effective at his playing weight last season, and I don’t want him to make a significant change in hiss physiology, too fast. I remember a certain young star who really packed it on one summer, and never seemed to recover. Maybe he’ll sweat it out in the desert sun and turn things around, but enough about water under the bridge…

    I like Marty as he is – a good defender on the Oilers! Gordy.

  11. FTO says:

    Lowetide,

    Yeah I’m sure once we get further down the line in advanced stats here we should hopefully be able to identify that particular inefficiency, and more hopefully still our favourite team could exploit it!

    I’m kinda new to understanding these stats even though I’ve been a long time reader here, just ordered Vollman’s book after it was plugged on your show and can’t wait to dive in.

    I was wondering though shouldn’t a good RelCorsi infer that even if you weren’t generating the shots yourself as a defense first guy wouldn’t traditionally, you were making a difference on your side of the ice contributing to the differential by holding the opposition to less shots? Or maybe I’m just making a big leap here, or don’t have a good grasp of these stats… Or both haha.

  12. Lois Lowe says:

    justDOit,

    He could also have put on 5 kilos and there was an error in translation. Euros are much more used to metric than us canucks.

  13. FTO says:

    Lowetide,

    Never mind I re-read your comment and think I just echoed you but with way more words haha.

  14. Woodguy says:

    FTO,

    I was wondering though shouldn’t a good RelCorsi infer that even if you weren’t generating the shots yourself as a defense first guy wouldn’t traditionally, you were making a difference on your side of the ice contributing to the differential by holding the opposition to less shots? Or maybe I’m just making a big leap here, or don’t have a good grasp of these stats… Or both haha.

    That certainly can be the case.

    Less shots against also can translate into more shots for because you got the puck back.

  15. FTO says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks, could also showcase puck moving D whose worth are never truly shown in their boxcars, maybe a guy like Petry could use that as his primary stat line?

  16. raventalon40 says:

    The town is Kosice, not Kocise! :)

  17. Dicky94 says:

    Shultz will be the one out the door if Nurse does make the team. Especially if they settle only on a one or two year contract before camp. He could fetch that number two center the Oil need. Much rather have Nurse, Klefbom , Marty and Petry down the road. All big boys that can move the puck.

  18. raventalon40 says:

    Dicky94:
    Shultz will be the one out the door if Nurse does make the team.Especially if they settle only on a oneor two year contract before camp.He could fetch that number two center the Oil need.Much rather have Nurse, Klefbom , Marty and Petry down the road. All big boys that can move the puck.

    There’s a Schultz graduating every year. We should trade his ass back to Anaheim.

  19. Bruce McCurdy says:

    FTO: Thanks, could also showcase puck moving D whose worth are never truly shown in their boxcars

    Sort of off-topic, I continue to hang on to a batshit theory that the worth of puck moving G is never truly shown in their save percentage. Unfortunately analytics in its infancy continues to value netminders solely for the reactive part of their job description (stopping shots) and not for the proactive part (contributing to the flow of play). I wonder if/when that will ever change.

  20. raventalon40 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Sort of off-topic, I continue to hang on to a batshit theory that the worth of puck moving G is never truly shown in their save percentage. Unfortunately analytics in its infancy continues to value netminders solely for the reactive part of their job description (stopping shots) and not for the proactive part (contributing to the flow of play). I wonder if/when that will ever change.

    Well the connection between save percentage and puck movement is tenuously connected at best, only by possession stats. If a puck moving D has the puck, then likely they have possession, and likely, the puck is going in the other direction and shots are likely to be fired at the opposite net. However, a good goaltender will still have good save percentage regardless of whether the shots are high or the shots are low. So perhaps if there is some way to measure the ability of puck moving D to influence different goalies in different situations, based on their presence or their absence? Similary to WOWY? But with regards to shots and save percentage / shot differential?

    Just thinking out loud, and based on a very vague knowledge of analytics…

  21. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Sort of off-topic, I continue to hang on to a batshit theory that the worth of puck moving G is never truly shown in their save percentage. Unfortunately analytics in its infancy continues to value netminders solely for the reactive part of their job description (stopping shots) and not for the proactive part (contributing to the flow of play). I wonder if/when that will ever change.

    Maybe with zone entry and exit data? Perhaps a good puck moving G will decrease the effectiveness of opposition dump ins?

  22. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Sort of off-topic, I continue to hang on to a batshit theory that the worth of puck moving G is never truly shown in their save percentage. Unfortunately analytics in its infancy continues to value netminders solely for the reactive part of their job description (stopping shots) and not for the proactive part (contributing to the flow of play). I wonder if/when that will ever change.

    I’d agree entirely.

    Remember the fits that Marty Turco used to give the Oilers in their devoted dump-and-chase days. I think he was a big factor in the league introducing the trapezoid area. A goalie who can take the dump and chase game away from a team puts them on their heels as very few today will default to that strategy if they have a half-decent possession game that can gain the zone without shooting it away.

    The metric that would be used to track that, though, would have to measure a goalie’s collecting the puck on a “pass” from the opposition, rather than a shot on net, and then a successful pass to a skater. One could even take it further and quantify it in such a way that passes that resulted in successful zone exits with control were greater than those without, although that blurs the line between the abilities of goalie and the defender.

    This got me to thinking about icings as it relates to possession, which reminded me of something Ryan Pike did a while ago at FN: http://flamesnation.ca/2013/10/9/icings-the-most-advanced-stat-of-all

  23. FTO says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I always kind of viewed puck moving for a G to be kinda low on the totem pole compared to just stopping the puck (whenever playing in net I sucked at moving the puck so perhaps I have a bias haha).

    I do however remember Brodeur and goalies in general getting so good at it they made Ozone entries nearly impossible without possession, thus the implementation of the trapezoid.

    So I am confused about that issue myself, zero percent insight here haha.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris: I’d agree entirely.

    Remember the fits that Marty Turco used to give the Oilers in their devoted dump-and-chase days. I think he was a big factor in the league introducing the trapezoid area. A goalie who can take the dump and chase game away from a team puts them on their heels as very few today will default to that strategy if they have a half-decent possession game that can gain the zone without shooting it away.

    The metric that would be used to track that, though, would have to measure a goalie’s collecting the puck on a “pass” from the opposition, rather than a shot on net, and then a successful pass to a skater. One could even take it further and quantify it in such a way that passes that resulted in successful zone exits with control were greater than those without, although that blurs the line between the abilities of goalie and the defender.

    This got me to thinking about icings as it relates to possession, which reminded me of something Ryan Pike did a while ago at FN: http://flamesnation.ca/2013/10/9/icings-the-most-advanced-stat-of-all

    I did a twitter essay about a month ago on zone exits and icings. There’s not much out there. Pike’s article is more of a “I wonder” than an investigation. Desjardins looked a little deeper and didn’t find much there

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/4/2/1400550/icing-leaders-for-and-against

    I’ll try and group the info into a post soon to show you what’s out there.

  25. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I did a twitter essay about a month ago on zone exits and icings. There’s not much out there. Pike’s article is more of a “I wonder” than an investigation. Desjardins looked a little deeper and didn’t find much there

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/4/2/1400550/icing-leaders-for-and-against

    I’ll try and group the info into a post soon to show you what’s out there.

    Yeah, I think it looks interesting, but icings to me always seemed like a symptom of something that could be described otherwise.

    I passed along the article more as a way of citing other’s investigations.

  26. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    The Contrarian Goaltender spent some time looking at Goalies & shot prevention & stuff:

    http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2008/10/estimating-brodeurs-shot-prevention.html

    http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2009/04/value-of-rebound-control.html

    Yeah I remember those posts, in fact that’s me with the first comment for the first link.

    RexLibris: The metric that would be used to track that, though, would have to measure a goalie’s collecting the puck on a “pass” from the opposition, rather than a shot on net, and then a successful pass to a skater. One could even take it further and quantify it in such a way that passes that resulted in successful zone exits with control were greater than those without, although that blurs the line between the abilities of goalie and the defender.

    Here’s my own attempt to quantify that. Small sample size but the evidence was pretty compelling.

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