ONCE IN A LIFETIME (WATER FLOWING UNDERGROUND)

Based on the verbal we’ve heard from Craig MacTavish in the last 16 months, the Edmonton Oilers defense is going to be big, mobile, physical, able to make quick decisions and pass the puck expertly. They won’t necessarily be offensive players—Justin Schultz aside—but will have a wide range of skills. Among current prospects and roster players, it seems to me the description by MacTavish most closely resembles Darnell Nurse. Get ready for meaty, beaty, big and bouncy.

MACTAVISH

  • “He gives us an element we’re sorely lacking. He’s a guy who, over time, if we’re patient with him, is going to provide us with toughness. He’s a guy that will ride shotgun for a lot of our first overall picks and our skilled players for a lot of years. But our overriding draft philosophy is still to draft the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team over time.  Based on that philosophy, I still thought Darnell was the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team.”

 

TULSKY’S GOLD FROM 2012-13

tulsky's gold

Eric Tulsky was doing insane work at various spots on the internet one summer ago and he came up with a way to estimate ‘qual comp’ for defensemen in the CHL. The graph above estimates Darnell Nurse’s situational stats: his ice-time is heavy and he’s playing against the 2nd toughest opponents. Now, this isn’t something we can say is absolute proof of defensive ability, but it does suggest he’s being relied on at a very young age. A nice arrow.

RECENT QUOTES ON NURSE

  • Michael Parkatti on the Lowdown: “All you can really ask of your prospects is that they progress. I think it’s pretty obvious he progressed year over year. It’s probably a function of the opportunity he was given, he was playing behind some older players during his draft season. It’s good to see that he performed pretty well when given the chance. In terms of his chances, you have to look at the depth chart and think he has a shot here.”
  • SSM GM Kyle Dubas: “People get obsessed with Darnell’s plus/minus (plus-1, down from plus-15 the year prior), but his underlying numbers are excellent. Relative to the competition he plays [against], he does extremely well. Far greater than 50 percent of the time, the puck is not in our end. To me, it doesn’t get much bigger than that. If we’re taking the other team’s best players and forcing them to play in their end and away from the puck, that’s a successful day. The quality of competition he’s faced is higher than anyone else in our league, especially among defencemen.
  • Ryan Dittrick: Averaging more than 27 minutes per game against the opposition’s best players, “with no exceptions,” night after night in all situations? “That’s Darnell,” Dubas says. “There are no shifts off.” He’s been a force, an absolute brute on the Soo blueline.

OILERS CURRENT DEPTH CHART

  1. Mark Fayne
  2. Jeff Petry
  3. Martin Marincin
  4. Justin Schultz
  5. Nikita Nikitin
  6. Andrew Ference
  7. Oscar Klefbom
  8. Keith Aulie
  9. Darnell Nurse

If Darnell Nurse comes to camp, stands and delivers, who do you send down? Who do you risk waivers on? And, this question came from speeds, at what point do you begin contemplating Andrew Ference in the press box? Things could happen quickly here, maybe this fall. And if Nurse pushes, does that give Edmonton enough ammo to pursue an addition at center?

Nurse photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved.

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53 Responses to "ONCE IN A LIFETIME (WATER FLOWING UNDERGROUND)"

  1. Rod from Viking says:

    Watching Darnell in the pre-season last year showed me glimpses of what this young man is going to do with the Oilers in the future, how ever soon that may be. Opposition forwards will be looking over their shoulders when ever he is on the ice and that kind of player has been missing since the last time they were in the play-offs. A big strong, skilled hard to play against defense man, he will be a lot closer comparable to P.K. than Justin Schultz will ever be.

  2. Manitoba Oilers says:

    IMO Ference will be out played by both Klefbom and Nurse. Once training camp comes around

  3. Woodguy says:

    But our overriding draft philosophy is still to draft the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team over time. Based on that philosophy, I still thought Darnell was the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team.”

    This is a very important quote.

    Notice that he doesn’t say “best available player”

    Many (maybe correctly, time will tell) were livid that the Oilers passed on Nichushkin for Nurse.

    When using MacT’s metric, Nurse was the right pick.

    Why?

    Nichuskin may be a very, very good winger in the NHL for many years.

    The team has Hall, Eberle and Yak for a long time (if they choose, and Yak chooses to stay)

    A very good winger doesn’t have the impact on the Oilers that a very good multi-tool Dman has.

    The Oilers were lacking that player in their system.

    You can agree or disagree, but after reading that, I understand the pick better.

    You can call it drafting for need, but the stable was very full of good young wingers and the marginal improvement another winger gives the team is far less than a multi-tool Dman.

    I have argued you take BPA regardless because you can trade later for need, but NHL teams are fairly loathe to give up their best players. Trades of very good players happen, but they are fairly rare.

    I understand the pick now, and I think its very defensible.

    Also,

    All the verbal this summer sounds like if Nurse is good enough to stick, then they are trading a Dman + for a C.

    If its Petry out the door then I’ll be pissed off.

    It would be very Because Oilers to rush a kid so you can trade your best D away.

    Interesting September and October coming.

  4. VanOil says:

    If Klefbom, Simpson or Nurse come into camp in ready to play in the NHL form and Schultz is still unsigned, is it not Schultz that leaves? As much as the Management loves Schultz the Oilers have a long established case history of shipping players out of town who play hard ball during negotiations.

  5. Dicky94 says:

    VanOil,

    I agree. I think Shultz will be the one to go if both Nurse and Klefbom are ready. They can sign Petry to a long term contract at the end of the season who IMO is a better all around d man than Shultz. Shultz will get us a very good centre. I just think Shultz and his agent are looking for too much money.

  6. Lowetide says:

    VanOil:
    If Klefbom, Simpson or Nurse come into camp in ready to play in the NHL form and Schultz is still unsigned, is it not Schultz that leaves? As much as the Management loves Schultz the Oilers have a long established case history of shipping players out of town who play hard ball during negotiations.

    I’m down on Schultz, but he does bring an offensive element not currently available.

  7. VanOil says:

    Lowetide: I’m down on Schultz, but he does bring an offensive element not currently available.

    Agreed, but he would probably fetch a 2nd line Center. If the trade was in a package for one of the Islanders surplus Centers maybe Ryan Pulock could come back to fill the RHD PP specialist role in the pipeline.

    He is probably staying so I hope he can once again look like the world beating Defender he was in the AHL.

  8. oliveoilers says:

    Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was……..

    OH MY GOD, WHAT HAVE I DONE?

    I take it from your title LT, that you don’t want to be hearing this song and finding a parallel to the Oilers by, oh, let’s say, late November?

    Then you can use “We’re on the Road to Nowhere….”

  9. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    The men who cash checks with Oilers logos on them (in the media) keeping hinting that it’s Petry.

    Trading your best defenseman for a 2c to make a spot for a talented but raw rookie doesn’t sound like a recipe for success.

    More importantly, how can you then hide Ference, Schultz, and Nurse? The blue line goes from serviceable to terrible.

    How much could one year of Petry who ‘s probably undervalued around the league (like Hemsky) fetch on the trade market? A spare part centre?

  10. RexLibris says:

    Get ready for meaty, beaty, big and bouncy.

    Not ashamed to admit. I scrolled down after that line just to make sure there wasn’t a “what does it all mean” gif waiting to surprise me.

  11. LostBoy says:

    I dunno. It’s not really hard to fit Nurse’s development into the progression of an ultimately top paring defenseman.

    It *is* really hard to fit Nurse’s development into one ready for the NHL at 19.

    Like Tom Renney said of Jeff Petry when he turned pro, “Why go there?” And that was after four years of college.

    Nurse should go back to junior, and then he should spend most of a year in the AHL.

    Why go there? Was there something in his stint in Oklahoma a few months ago that said “Clearly ready to step into the NHL at 19?”

    It’s just not sense.

  12. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    Notice that he doesn’t say “best available player”

    Exactly.

    Two reasons.

    First – this whole BPA generality just ticks me off. Best according to whom? Weisbrod and Feaster? Stu MacGregor? Bryan Murray? Best is subjective. Define your needs, quantify the candidates, support your position, make the choice.

    Second – At the top of the draft order (where the Oilers seem to have permanent member status) select the player with the highest ceiling who also complements your current group unless the alternative is a justifiably significant talent drop off.

  13. oliveoilers says:

    Petry is OK on a shitty team and only has one year left on a contract. Schultz was terrible on a shitty team and needs to be signed. I don’t see any reason why we can’t trade one of these for a bona fide 2C. From the ECHL! (Drops mike)

    (Picks mike back up) Does any one ever skim through the cars on Kijiji and notice the ads that require you to take over the payments on their POS AND pay THEM for the privilege? Also the ads that read “Very reliable car, never had any problems. Has had a new head gasket, brakes re-done, new tie-rods, new fuel pump, new exhaust.” I shit you not, their are hundreds of people that claim their car was reliable, then spout of a whole list of deal-breaking problems that scream “STAY AWAY”. Seriously folks, study Kijiji, then write a 1000 word essay on buying and selling shit. Then come on here and tell us what you’ve learnt and make your trade proposals, obviously swapping the assets involved. The dynamics are the same, the only difference is all the protagonists have MBAs.

  14. OilLeak says:

    RexLibris:
    Woodguy,

    Exactly.

    Two reasons.

    First – this whole BPA generality just ticks me off. Best according to whom?

    Consensus draft rankings

  15. RexLibris says:

    Speaking of Nurse and the D. Willis on a Schultz, er, sorry Jultz bridge deal. http://oilersnation.com/2014/8/24/the-subban-comp

    Boil it down – two years makes far more sense if you are going to overpay at $3.5 than a one year deal. Get that extra year of evaluation rather than hit the contractual snooze button and hope things are clearer five minutes from now.

  16. RexLibris says:

    OilLeak,

    I guess I meant the way in which many fans use BPA as a generalization of how they want their team to select prospects. Concensus lists work to an extent, but usually once you have passed the 1st to 5th overall picks you are working within an ever-widening spectrum.

    I’d even prefer if people said “I’d rather my team chose on a more conservative, concensus basis” or “I’d like them to target skill in the first four rounds and European overagers in the later rounds”. Instead the usual boilerplate response I get from people is “BPA”. Which is frustrating because those same people usually have no lack of opinion on past draft choices.

  17. Eulers says:

    LT, remember when the Oilers defence used to occasionally join the rush when appropriate? I remember a young confident Jeff Petry doing this now and again. Dare we hope see this dimension of these players again if they have more depth, aren’t tiring themselves out with excessive defensive burden, and have a more reliable partner? A point to ponder perhaps…

  18. Hammers says:

    Surely most fans expect Nurse to get his 9 games ??? So if his succesful and deserves to be here he should stay and if not, he goes back . If he can’t learn anymore in junior he should stay . We have to trust McT & Eakins to make that decision , not us . Actually the same goes for Klefbom . If just 1 stays & Schultz signs Aulie starts on the IR . It’s done all the time . If both are deemed good enough there will be a trade and its that simple .Like Woodguy I don’t want it to be Petry and I add Marincin to my list . Hell Marincin & Klefbom might both go to the Barons if Nurse passes with flying colors . Let things take there coarse .

  19. RexLibris says:

    Okay, OT, but I’m playing around with Hockey Analysis and checking out some of the differences between it and ES. The HARO, HARD and HART categories grabbed my attention and I began to toy around with them to see what sort of things came up.

    The rough definitions for them is that they are Hockey Analysis ratings of players by Offense (hence, O), Defense and then Total. They are also adjusted for Fenwick % if you want to view things that way.

    The Oilers rank very badly by standard HART rates. ;)

    But when you switch over to Fenwick adjusted HART and Quality of Competition, things get very interesting. Here’s a direct lift from the glossary on the statistical category: Overall Quality of Competition – Weighted average (by TOI against) of opponents FenHART rating

    The top six names on that list are Perron, Hall, Eberle, O’Reilly, Landeskog, Nugent-Hopkins.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201314&sit=5v5&pos=forwards&minutes=1000&teamid=0&type=fenwick&sort=HARTQOC&sortdir=DESC

  20. godot10 says:

    Lowetide has gone over to the dark side of the force in ranking Fayne ahead of Petry, and fasttracking him out of town.

    Lou signed Greene, not Fayne. In taking on the toughest minutes in the easy eastern conference, Fayne was paired with a better D with him.

    Meanwhile, Petry took on the toughest the western conference had to offer with Smid, with Ference, and a rookie in Marincin.

    So the guy who hasn’t proven he can do it is ranked ahead of the guy who has proven that he can do it.

    So in addition to “same as it ever was”, we’ve “stopped making sense”, and Petry is about to hit the highway, as Lowe and MacT and the mainstream media sent Hejda and Pitkanen and Gilbert (Lowe only) out of town.

    I figure that we are still “on the road to nowhere”.

    Time to start a posse and go “burn down the house”,

  21. RexLibris says:

    I think someone else might have mentioned this before, but Taylor Hall’s IPP is 98.1%. Top of the league and 2nd place is Ovehckin, 10.2% below him.

    He doesn’t play on a top line.

    He is the top line.

    The other two just ride shotgun.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201314&sit=5v5&pos=forwards&minutes=1000&teamid=0&type=individual&sort=IPP&sortdir=DESC

  22. Lowetide says:

    And because you’re all DAMN A TYPE PERSONALITIES, here’s how they get the number
    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/04/11/how-are-hockeyanalysis-com-ratings-haro-hard-hart-calculated/

  23. RexLibris says:

    godot10,

    Yeah, LT. Why do you hate Petry?

    ;)

  24. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    And because you’re all DAMN A TYPE PERSONALITIES, here’s how they get the number
    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/04/11/how-are-hockeyanalysis-com-ratings-haro-hard-hart-calculated/

    Actually, I think I’m an AB- personality. Universal recipient. Means I can take bull from anyone but can’t dish it out.

  25. RexLibris says:

    Richard Attenborough has passed away at 90.

    http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/aug/24/richard-attenborough-died-aged-90

    Why am I always the one breaking this news?

  26. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    And because you’re all DAMN A TYPE PERSONALITIES, here’s how they get the number
    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/04/11/how-are-hockeyanalysis-com-ratings-haro-hard-hart-calculated/

    It is reading articles like this that make me seriously question whether I have an undiagnosed attention deficit issue.

    Thanks for the link.

    64 million data points for one player who has managed five years in the league. Wow. Most statistical models that measure human interaction events such as polls can only dream of that kind of sample size.

    Yet, I’m sure that wouldn’t be enough for the “watch the games” crowd.

  27. speeds says:

    I like Nurse as a prospect, but Nichuskin was the better pick the day of the draft IMO, and he looks even better today. Does that mean it’s impossible for Nurse to pass him, or to be a very good pick? No, of course not.

  28. speeds says:

    Woodguy,

    Even if it’s true that Edm needed a D more than another W, that doesn’t mean the draft is the best way to address that need.

  29. rickithebear says:

    Oilers defense is going to be big, mobile, physical, able to make quick decisions and pass the puck expertly.

    Even assist d rank each season:
    13-14
    Nikitin 13 EVA #67
    Ference 13 #67
    Phanuef 13
    Bieksa 13
    J. schultz 11 #95
    Hejda 11
    Gorges 11
    Orpik 11
    Petry 9 #115
    Fayne 7 #144

    12-13
    Petry 9 #36
    Doughty 9
    Erhoff 9
    Hejda 9
    Ference 8 #50
    J. schultz 8 #50
    Subban 8
    Seabrook 8
    Giordano 8
    Nikitin 5 #110
    Fayne 5 #110
    Aulie 5 #110

    11-12
    Petry 18 #25
    Nikitin 18 #25
    Weber 18
    Couburn 18
    Ference 15 #47
    Erhoff 15
    Fowler 15
    Fayne 10 #109

    Petry top 40 2 years
    Ference top 50 2 years
    Nikitin top 70 2 years
    J. schultz top 100 2 years
    Fayne top 110 2 years.

    There is only one Dman that has not proven an ability to prevent players from entering the box when healthy.

    He is not signed.

  30. LostBoy says:

    Hammers:
    Surely most fans expect Nurse to get his 9 games ???

    I have no idea about most fans, but it would be the exception if he did. Sure, the door should be open for it if fireworks go off at training camp. But Darnell Nurse being ready to play in the NHL at 19 would be really, really unusual, and the risk of rushing him is huge.

    Jason Gregor puts it in perspective in this post in a pretty comprehensive survey:

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/8/4/developing-d-men/trash

    It’s just really, really hard to see why anyone should expect Nurse to be ready this fall. He’s a major stud talent, on track. But that track only leads to the NHL at age 19 with real success in a few outliers.

  31. Lowetide says:

    I have Nurse playing 9 games, it’s a very reasonable bet.
    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2014/08/training-camp-hopeful-no-9-darnell-nurse.html

  32. Woodguy says:

    A wise man once said “Its about what you create minus what you give up”

    Let’s talk goals.

    Its subject to more variance and therefore more misinterpretation, but I also believe that goal scoring is an ability, much like possession and shouldn’t be discounted.

    With that in mind, here are last year’s Dmen in terms of Goals For/20, Goals Against/20, and the difference (expressed as a percentage of goals scored by the good guys)

    Goals For per 20 in 5v5 TOI

    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 0.73
    BELOV, ANTON 0.722
    FERENCE, ANDREW 0.665
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 0.656
    PETRY, JEFF 0.628
    LARSEN, PHILIP 0.589
    MARINCIN, MARTIN 0.582
    FRASER, MARK 0.509

    Goals Against Per 20 min 5v5 TOI

    MARINCIN, MARTIN 0.669
    LARSEN, PHILIP 0.883
    PETRY, JEFF 0.897
    BELOV, ANTON 0.922
    FERENCE, ANDREW 0.93
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 0.963
    FRASER, MARK 1.017
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 1.231

    Difference net goals for (against) per 20 min 5v5 TOI

    MARINCIN, MARTIN -0.087
    BELOV, ANTON -0.200
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN -0.233
    FERENCE, ANDREW -0.265
    PETRY, JEFF -0.269
    LARSEN, PHILIP -0.294
    FRASER, MARK -0.508
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR -0.575

    Now, goals are subject directly to SV%, so you should really normalize these numbers, but I’m too lazy and I’ll just post the 5v5 SV% of each guy:

    MARTINMARINCIN 934
    PHILIPLARSEN 919
    ANDREWFERENCE 916
    JUSTINSCHULTZ 909
    MARKFRASER 908
    ANTONBELOV 906
    JEFFPETRY 905
    OSCARKLEFBOM 880

    So before you go screaming OMGBBQ!!?!?!?!WTFOSCAR??? the goalies couldn’t stop a beachball behind him this year. It happens.

    Interesting stuff.

  33. speeds says:

    Lowetide,

    How do you create the roster spot for him, if there is no injury during camp? Waive Aulie? Demote both MM and OK? Carry 8D?

  34. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Lowetide,

    How do you create the roster spot for him, if there is no injury during camp?Waive Aulie? Demote both MM and OK? Carry 8D?

    Injury, demotion of Klefbom or Marincin. Aulie waivers. All kinds of ways to do it, no?

  35. Soup Fascist says:

    RexLibris,

    RexLibris:
    Richard Attenborough has passed away at 90.

    http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/aug/24/richard-attenborough-died-aged-90

    Why am I always the one breaking this news?

    Not sure but wasn’t ol’ Richie boy the last surviving member of the most recent Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Championship team? Left winger, I believe.

  36. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Woodguy,

    Even if it’s true that Edm needed a D more than another W, that doesn’t mean the draft is the best way to address that need.

    I dunno Mike, I don’t see a lot of high end D prospects being moved.

    Part of the allure of drafting a player is owning his soul as a cheap RFA.

    Other than McDonagh, I can’t remember a highly touted D prospect with lots of RFA years left being moved in the last 7-8 years, and Gainey was pilloried (correctly) immediately for doing it, and its probably the move that cost him his job.

  37. raventalon40 says:

    RexLibris:
    I think someone else might have mentioned this before, but Taylor Hall’s IPP is 98.1%. Top of the league and 2nd place is Ovehckin, 10.2% below him.

    He doesn’t play on a top line.

    He is the top line.

    The other two just ride shotgun.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201314&sit=5v5&pos=forwards&minutes=1000&teamid=0&type=individual&sort=IPP&sortdir=DESC

    While we’re at it – David Perron looks amazing by this measure.

  38. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide:
    Here is HART explained
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/about.php

    I didn’t notice an explanation for GRIT. And is it possible that SHG isn’t Short Handed Goals but Seen Him Good?;-)

    Don Cherry would champion these stats.

  39. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Now, goals are subject directly to SV%, so you should really normalize these numbers, but I’m too lazy and I’ll just post the 5v5 SV% of each guy:

    Now Save % is reflective of A dman ability to keep % of shots in the kill area to a minimum when healthy.
    And a dmans ability to generate offence by getting the forwards the puck. Resulting in Even assists.
    These are when Dmen are even or at a disadvantage.

    Our best Are

    Petry;
    1st comp .56 EVGA/15
    EVA (25, 36, 115)

    Ference
    2nd comp .52 EVGA/15
    EVA (47, 50, 67)

    Nikitin
    2nd comp .33 EVGA/15
    EVA (25, 112, 67)

    Fayne
    2nd comp .40 EVGA/60
    EVA (109, 110, 144)

    Marancin
    1st comp .52 EVGA/60

  40. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Now Save % is reflective of A dman ability to keep % of shots in the kill area to a minimum when healthy.

    No.

    For the 31235412356213rd time, many have looked at this and have found no evidence.

    Just because you say it over and over doesn’t make it true.

    Here’s a good post you should read.

    http://blog.extraskater.com/2014/06/on-ice-shot-distance/

    For those who don’t want to read it, the key line is “it appears defencemen have little talent for forcing shots from further out”

    Add that to the giant pile of evidence that Dmen do not materially affect SV% over time.

    And a dmans ability to generate offence by getting the forwards the puck. Resulting in Even assists.

    I don’t believe that to be true either.

    Dmen who can gain possession and get the puck going the right way don’t necessarily get assits.

    Often the puck has been passed 3+ times from the time they last touched it in the dzone before a shot attempt occurs.

    Doesn’t make their contribution any less important.

    Tyler was digging into this and now I can’t link to his stuff to support my point.

    He had focused on the NYR and Stralman in particular showing that while Stralman didn’t get many 5v5 points, the same players scored more with him on the ice compared to other D, including McDonagh.

    Tyler had started down the road of separating offensive ability from scoring ability.

    I see it breaking down into 2 categories – 1) Offence – the ability to move the puck the right way 2) Finishing ability – the ability to convert possession into goals.

    Two different abilities.

    I think Jultz has almost none of 1, and a lot of 2.

  41. Hammers says:

    LostBoy: I have no idea about most fans, but it would be the exception if he did. Sure, the door should be open for it if fireworks go off at training camp. But Darnell Nurse being ready to play in the NHL at 19 would be really, really unusual, and the risk of rushing him is huge.Jason Gregor puts it in perspective in this post in a pretty comprehensive survey:http://oilersnation.com/2014/8/4/developing-d-men/trashIt’s just really, really hard to see why anyone should expect Nurse to be ready this fall. He’s a major stud talent, on track. But that track only leads to the NHL at age 19 with real success in a few outliers.

    Sure training camp will give some answers but if he does the same as last training camp or better he gets 9 games maybe over a 15 game spread but he will get them . Seems Larsen & Jones made the jump immediately and I for one say age is a number and thats all .Europeans figured that out years ago . Lets see what happens .

  42. rickithebear says:

    When you shoot Guns, Pucks. Perspective targeting is critical. the live eye can only adjust so well for open space targeting.

    That is why scopes are used for guns.

    that is why shots closer are more affective cause the 7 holes are visually larger for targeting purposes.

    the velocity is constant. Shorter distance less time for the goalie to respond.

    The closer the target the more easy to target. Hit the bulls eye.

    No better example than Baseball versus soft ball.

    Hardball batter are loaded but attempt to read the ball and act on the ball with release on target.

    Softball the distance is much shorter. The batter is preloaded and bat rotation is already started as they read the Ball.attempt t stop if do not like the pitch.

    A Dman who keeps forwards outside the box area.

    Cause the shooter to have reduced visual reference for targeting and Provide more time for the goalie movement.

    You still need a goalie that has a strong save% inside 25ft.

    Lastly the functional range is incorrect.

    It is not over 1.000

    it is .899 to .935

    .036

    the range is 3.6%

    Studies have continued to show 1.3 to 1.5%

    I will read this latest.

  43. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    There is no question that proximity to the net of the shot increases the SH%.

    There is a many questions as to if Dman can truly “keep shots to the outside”

    So far the answer is no, or at the very least “not often enough to matter”

    I think a part of it is that the best Dmen tend to play against the best shooters.

    It’s the other side of the function that gives 4th liners the best ONSV%. 4th liners play against 4th liners, who aren’t in the league because they can score.

  44. rickithebear says:

    Extra skater:

    I just read a study that states that Dmen do not have any affect on league average shot distance shots.
    36 ft i think he said.

    No fucking shit Sherlock.

    When i was looking at Dmen the perimeter pressure is 20- 30 ft .

    the aouter area he stated is dependent on forward back check and pressure.

    the league average for shooting % is 8.5% and 25 ft in is 8.5 to 30%

    Hence you want dmen who keep shots inside 25ft to be 25% or less versus the worst who can be 35%.

    the number of shots faced is team OZ and NZ procession and DZ face offs. Largely forward driven or puck caring dmen driven.

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=251

    This chart and shot analysis does not go beyond this.

    A dman giving up 20% inside 25ft versus a dman who gives up 35%.

    You state that is zero influence.

  45. haters says:

    Is there any lament for not taking Horvat instead of Nurse? Drafting history has not been on the side drafting D early and the hole at C seems to be the area of concern for the last few years. Horvat set of skills seems to fit in with this team and he will be ready to step up this year. Just a thought .

  46. Marc says:

    speeds:
    I like Nurse as a prospect, but Nichuskin was the better pick the day of the draft IMO, and he looks even better today. Does that mean it’s impossible for Nurse to pass him,or to be a very good pick? No, of course not.

    A forward prospect is always going to look better than a D prospect a year after the draft. One year after the 2007 draft Sam Gagner was coming off a 49 point rookie season (15 points more than Nichuskin in the same number of games). He looked a better pick than Alzner or McDonagh at that point. Now, not so much.

    At the draft Nurse projected to be a top pairing all around D. A year later, he still looks like one. It (and top line center) is the toughest position to fill in hockey. You can’t count on being able to trade for them (McDonagh and Phaneuf are the only examples I can think of) and they almost never hit free agency (Chara, Suter, Hamhuis are the exceptions I can think of off the top of my head – so maybe one every couple of seasons), so you really have to draft them.

    Top line wingers on the other hand can be traded for, and in any event, the Oilers already had two signed long term in Hall and Eberle, and another who projects to be one in Yakupov.

    I can see zero reason to criticise the decision to pick Nurse over Nichuskin. Absolutely none.

  47. Soup Fascist says:

    haters:
    Is there any lament for not taking Horvat instead of Nurse? Drafting history has not been on the side drafting D early and the hole at C seems to be the area of concern for the last few years. Horvat set of skills seems to fit in with this team and he will be ready to step up this year. Just a thought .

    I am curious what leads you to believe that Horvat is ready to be a significant contributor at the next level – or would be a potential 2C solution for the Oilers this year – had he been drafted instead of Nurse. Domi and Lazar arguably were much more dominant centers in their draft +1 years and I don’t believe that either player will be 2C on their respective teams this year. Looking at all factors, I am not sure a 19 year old Horvat is any better than an 18 year old Draisaitl, in all honesty.

    I am likely somewhat biased by seeing Lazar play as much as I have over the past 3 years or so, but I think the question in five years will be why did Vancouver take Horvat instead of Lazar.

  48. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    A dman giving up 20% inside 25ft versus a dman who gives up 35%.
    You state that is zero influence.

    No, I am saying there is no evidence that any Dman does this over a large sample.

    If you have the data to support this, I ‘d like to see it.

  49. jb says:

    Woodguy,

    Doesn’t a huge part of a defensemans game revolve around limiting the quality of the shot? How do you measure the difference between Chris Pronger and Justin Shultz’s ability to limit quality chances? I’m not sure, but it can’t be Corsi, andI like where Ricki’s starting.

  50. buddyboe says:

    godot10,

    Exactly!

  51. buddyboe says:

    godot10:
    Lowetide has gone over to the dark side of the force in ranking Fayne ahead of Petry, and fasttracking him out of town.

    Lou signed Greene, not Fayne.In taking on the toughest minutes in the easy eastern conference, Fayne was paired with a better D with him.

    Meanwhile, Petry took on the toughest the western conference had to offer with Smid, with Ference, and a rookie in Marincin.

    So the guy who hasn’t proven he can do it is ranked ahead of the guy who has proven that he can do it.

    So in addition to “same as it ever was”, we’ve “stopped making sense”, and Petry is about to hit the highway, as Lowe and MacT and the mainstream media sent Hejda and Pitkanen and Gilbert (Lowe only) out of town.

    I figure that we are still “on the road to nowhere”.

    Time to start a posse and go “burn down the house”,

    Exactly!

  52. haters says:

    Soup Fascist,

    Good points, I forgot Lazar was drafted after Horvat. My question was if there was any lamenting the enormous gamble of not taking a center at that spot. The argument brought up by WG and MacT is that Nurse will have the greatest impact on the team vs a forward/winger. I strongly disagree. I think MacT was seduced by 1 pedigree. 2 apparent truculence . I contend that a C ( any of the 3 mentioned) would have had a much greater impact and would be much safer bets for a successful pick. I love Nurse, I’m just terrified that by the time he’s ready to make an impact it will be a non issue.

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