RE 14-15 ANDREW FERENCE: ALL I WANT

Andrew Ference entered the fray with the reputation of a winner, and it took fewer than 30 games to crush the resume into a fine white powder. The Oilers’ curious chaos proved too much for the veteran, and made him ‘one of us’ in the worst possible way.

ANDREW FERENCE 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.65 (2nd among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.47 (1st among regular D)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular D
  • Qual Team: 2nd best available among regular D
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 42.9
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -3.1
  • Zone Start: 45.9% (3rd toughest among regular D)
  • Zone Finish: 47.1% (best among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 77 shots/3.9% (3rd among Oil D>50 shots)
  • Boxcars: 71, 3-15-18

RE 13-14 REVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.224 ANDREW FERENCE RE 13-14 76 3 14 17
.254 ANDREW FERENCE ACTUAL 13-14 71 3 15 18

RE 14-15 PREVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.212 ANDREW FERENCE RE 14-15 66 3 11 14
 

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER (CORSI REL)

vollman sledge blue 13-14

  1. Did he play well? No. Andrew Ference didn’t deliver in the role assigned, and would have been better off handling a lesser role. It is vital that Dallas Eakins gives him fewer minutes at evens this coming season, and lesser assignments. It’s no sin to be 35.
  2. Who did Ference play with? At 5×5, 464 minutes with Justin Schultz, 321 with Jeff Petry, 148 with Nick Schultz.
  3. Who was he most effective with? Petry, and then (in fewer minutes) Phil Larsen and Denis Grebeshkov.
  4. Who did he struggle with? Everyone else. I don’t think Ference can handle Schultz and his rambling style while also playing difficult minutes. Eakins needs to move both of their Vollman bubbles over to Phil Larsen’s spot from last year, and with lesser competition.
  5. You blamed Nick Schultz in the same role? Yes I did.
  6. Good of you to spend a lot of time explaining yourself. I am not a crook.
  7. It’s like talking to Nixon. What’s the best thing you can say about Ference’s first season as an Oiler? He didn’t make any difference at all. Andrew Ference was signed as a veteran hand who would come in and still the thunder, use those calm feet to stop the crazy. It did not happen.
  8. Is that his fault? Ference played higher on the depth chart than he was able, and he was paired with a defenseman who has one year’s experience twice. Whose fault is that?
  9. No one could have made any difference. Martin Marincin, a raw rookie making diddly, made a difference. That young man delivered as soon as his plane landed, and did it against tougher competition and with similar zone starts. We have to assume, at this point, the days of Ference playing tough minutes at evens are a distant bell. Unless he hooks up with Fayne.
  10. What value does Ference bring? Shelter, for one. In my opinion this was a good hire for all kinds of reasons, the main one being he’d been down the losing road and could answer all the questions without making a mess. The choice of Ference as captain was inspired in hindsight, as it took a veteran to keep from lashing out on those difficult nights.
  11. What are the other good reasons to have signed Ference? Well, he played some tough minutes this season—third toughest competition, and the zone start was no screaming hell—and he survived it. The Oilers paid him to play in their top 4D, and he did, although the results were a train wreck along with the rest of the team.
  12. Did you like the signing. Here’s what I said a year ago: D Andrew Ference, 4 years times 3.25M. An overpay where he’ll play, Ference is ideally suited as a veteran pairing for Schultz the younger. He was 4th among Bruins in EV TOI (17:06) and fourth in PK TOI (2:13) and will probably play similar minutes with the Oilers. I think we should probably prepare for Ladislav Smid or Nick Schultz heading out of town (Ottawa or Philly is my guess) before training camp. The current LH depth chart is Smid, Ference, N Schultz, Anton Belov, Oscar Klefbom–suspect we’ll see a flip before fall.
  13. Well they traded them all. It made sense, Ference made Smid moot and Marincin came along and did the same for Schultz the elder.
  14. What are the on-ice positives we can take from Ference’s season? He played as well or better than any other defender who spent extended time alongside Justin Schultz.
  15. What? Ference-Schultz were 42.1% Corsi for%, Schultz-Schultz 38.4%.
  16. Was anyone better? In far fewer sorties, Belov was 49% with Schultz the younger, Oscar Klefbom was 44.3%.
  17. Where does Ference play next season? Third pairing, with Justin Schultz.
  18. What is your top 4D? To open the season? Marincin-Petry and Nikitin-Fayne.
  19. Will Andrew Ference skate in a playoff game as an Edmonton Oiler? I believe he will.
  20. Why this song? This is perfect for Andrew Ference. I think it’s about someone with the wisdom and experience to put aside the idea that anything less than perfection is compromise. Happiness can be defined differently at certain points in life. For Ference, it’s about being 35 and looking at the future in a game that does not love 35. And it’s about searching for a home you can call your own, even if it doesn’t look like what you wanted at 25.

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42 Responses to "RE 14-15 ANDREW FERENCE: ALL I WANT"

  1. G Money says:

    Given the age, minutes overload, and poor results playing with Jultz, plus the fact that the Oilers see Jultz as a Top 4 guy and almost certainly see Fayne there as well, I personally think the Oilers ignore handedness a bit and we’re at least or more likely to see:

    Marincin-Petry
    Fayne becomes the babysitter for Jultz
    Nikitin-Ference

  2. Ca$h-Money! says:

    5×5 points per 60: 0.65 (2nd among regular D)
    5×4 points per 60: 4.47 (1st among regular D)
    Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular D
    Qual Team: 2nd best available among regular D
    Corsi for 5×5 %: 42.9
    Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -3.1
    Zone Start: 45.9% (3rd toughest among regular D)
    Zone Finish: 47.1% (best among D)
    Shots on goal/percentage: 77 shots/3.9% (3rd among Oil D>50 shots)
    Boxcars: 71, 3-15-18

    You know, it’s funny. Ference had a bad season, I get that, but when I look at the above list the only thing that stands out as bad is the the Corsi/Corsi REL (which is obviously important). But still, you’d figure you’d find time to mention in the writeup that he was, as far as Oilers blue are concerned, an offensive Dynamo with tough zone starts and a positive zone finish.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    5×5 points per 60: 0.65 (2nd among regular D)
    5×4 points per 60: 4.47 (1st among regular D)
    Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular D
    Qual Team: 2nd best available among regular D
    Corsi for 5×5 %: 42.9
    Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -3.1
    Zone Start: 45.9% (3rd toughest among regular D)
    Zone Finish: 47.1% (best among D)
    Shots on goal/percentage: 77 shots/3.9% (3rd among Oil D>50 shots)
    Boxcars: 71, 3-15-18

    You know, it’s funny.Ference had a bad season, I get that, but when I look at the above list the only thing that stands out as bad is the the Corsi/Corsi REL (which is obviously important).But still, you’d figure you’d find time to mention in the writeup that he was, as far as Oilers blue are concerned, an offensive Dynamo with tough zone starts and a positive zone finish.

    When Andrew Ference is your offensive dynamo, you’re doing it wrong.

  4. Woodguy says:

    The problem with the Edmonton Oilers since 2006 has been the number of players playing above their established NHL ability.

    Everything else is a byproduct of this.

    It comes directly from poor player development and poor pro player procurement.

    Ference is what he is and like all hockey players, is waning as he ages.

    He played mostly 3rd pair in BOS and some 2nd pair. (see here for more detail: http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/07/the-story-of-a-man-ready-to-make-a-connection.html/comment-page-1#comment-239289 )

    He played those minutes with a negative RelCor on BOS.

    Then he comes to EDM and gets a load of 1sts and mostly 2nds with a chaotic rookie.

    The results are pretty much as expected.

    Also,

    This is exactly why I have more hope for this year than any year since 2006, even if the 2C goes unfilled.

    The Oilers D has actual NHL Dmen. Most will not be slotted about their ability.

    The wild card is Nikitin. He has succeeded at 1st pairing before with Tyutin, but that was a couple years ago.

    If we look at what we think the pairings will be be we see this:

    Nikitin-Fayne

    Nikitin above his ability – but some history there
    Fayne – played 1sts with Greene in NJD last 2 years

    Verdict: Has a chance not to drown as a 1st pair.

    Marincin-Petry

    Marincin is a rookie, but played 1sts last year in 44ish games and came out ahead
    Petry – has played 1sts for 3 years and treaded water on the most awful team in the NHL. A Herculean accomplishment.

    Verdict: – Has a chance to post some big positive RelCor in a lesser role than last year

    Ference-Jultz

    Ference – This is where he should slot, still good enough to tread water vs 3rds
    Jultz – If he minimizes the moseying and lollygagging in the Dzone while getting better coaching he could improve in these conditions

    Verdict: – May not get their heads caved in if they play in this spot.

    So I actually think that the Dpairs could be NHL quality this year.

    Combine this with Eakins publicly stating that the Oilers biggest problem was exiting their own zone and that they will be revamping that part of the system (one would assume less jailbreak from the wingers and more support in the dzone from them), and we could have a team that can post a 50%CF in the Western Conference.

    We wait.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    5×5 points per 60: 0.65 (2nd among regular D)
    5×4 points per 60: 4.47 (1st among regular D)
    Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular D
    Qual Team: 2nd best available among regular D
    Corsi for 5×5 %: 42.9
    Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -3.1
    Zone Start: 45.9% (3rd toughest among regular D)
    Zone Finish: 47.1% (best among D)
    Shots on goal/percentage: 77 shots/3.9% (3rd among Oil D>50 shots)
    Boxcars: 71, 3-15-18

    You know, it’s funny.Ference had a bad season, I get that, but when I look at the above list the only thing that stands out as bad is the the Corsi/Corsi REL (which is obviously important).But still, you’d figure you’d find time to mention in the writeup that he was, as far as Oilers blue are concerned, an offensive Dynamo with tough zone starts and a positive zone finish.

    The 5v4 pts/60 is very misleading as the sample size is miniscule.

    Here is the total 5v4 TOI by Oiler Dmen last year:

    Justin Schultz 254:46:00
    Anton Belov 75:14:00
    Philip Larsen 72:49:00
    Jeff Petry 67:23:00
    Andrew Ference 26:56:00
    Martin Marincin 21:59
    Corey Potter 13:54
    Denis Grebeshkov 5:17
    Brad Hunt 3:03
    Nick Schultz 2:34
    Oscar Klefbom 2:34
    Mark Fraser 1:36
    Ladislav Smid 0:12
    Taylor Fedun 0:00

    Expressed in terms of 5v4 TOI/game its this:

    Justin Schultz 3:26
    Philip Larsen 2:25
    Anton Belov 1:19
    Brad Hunt 1:01
    Corey Potter 0:52
    Jeff Petry 0:50
    Denis Grebeshkov 0:45
    Martin Marincin 0:29
    Andrew Ference 0:22
    Oscar Klefbom 0:09
    Mark Fraser 0:04
    Nick Schultz 0:02
    Ladislav Smid 0:00
    Taylor Fedun 0:00

    Ference got a small taste when Eakins got lost with who to put on the PP Blue. A puck or two went in so his scoring rate looks good, but could be due entirely to luck.

  6. Clay says:

    Woodguy:
    The problem with the Edmonton Oilers since 2006 has been the number of players playing above their established NHL ability.

    Everything else is a byproduct of this.

    It comes directly from poor player development and poor pro player procurement.

    Quoted for absolute truth. It’s like Pronger and Spacek left, and mgmt decided it wasn’t a big deal.

    “Pronger fell in our lap – just a matter of time before it happens again!”

  7. Woodguy says:

    I’d like to state for the record that I think MacT had a great summer in terms of pro player procurement and that his insistence on OKC focus on prospect development is also excellent.

    The biggest failing (development/procurement) of the Oilers for the last 8 seasons is improving and will lead to having Actual NHL players slotted at or below their NHL ability.

    That means the Oilers will be a competitive team in the NHL, not just a team in the NHL.

  8. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Lowetide: When Andrew Ference is your offensive dynamo, you’re doing it wrong.

    Couldn’t agree more. But still, second on the team in 5×5 offence despite 3rd toughest zone start and 3rd toughest opposition…. it’s worth a mention, even if it highlights a management problem more than a player success.

    Woodguy,

    Agreed. Not saying he’s all world… not saying he shouldn’t be bottom pairing for that matter (or #7 on a good team). I’m just saying, over the course of the last 5 years, we’ve had much bigger things to complain about than Andrew Ference’s performance, no?

  9. Hammers says:

    Agree with the above comments other than the pairings . I am hoping Ference isn’t with Schultz and would prefer Nikitan getting that job. If its M.M. with Petry or Fayne I don’t really care as I believe all 3 pairs are really 2nd line pairings . Fayne is the closest to a 1st line guy but really is a very good 2nd pairing player . If the coaches handle this right we may have the equivalent to 3 equal pairs all getting about 20 minutes each . Schultz / Nikitan most PP time with the other 2 pairs getting equal PK time .Opinions , we all have them .

  10. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    Re: Ference and 5v4 numbers

    I’ve working on an RE series for the Flames and checked on Engelland’s 5v4 ranking with the Penguins last season.

    He led the team with a 7.38 pp/60 with the man-advantage.

    Wait for it.

    With 0.15 TOI/60.

    Twice as much as Smid, but that is damning with faint praise.

    Basically, Engelland had 1 assist in 8.1 minutes on the power play (almost assuredly the final few minutes) over the course of his 56 games played last year.

    The grand total of Engelland’s pp time over the course of his NHL career, including playoffs is 12.2 minutes. But if you glanced at the numbers without context, he’d look like a Sheldon Souray-type of defender.

  11. RexLibris says:

    The biggest problem with the Ference contract is the NMC. It inhibits the team’s ability to even buy the player out as it restricts waiver access.

    The positive is that since that contract and the Gagner extension last summer, MacTavish appears to be reticent to hand out contractual clauses. He could have offered one to Nikitin, Pouliot or Fayne, but he didn’t.

    If push comes to shove, I don’t have any serious concerns about the Ference contract’s impact on the rest of the roster in years to come. I think Ference would waive his NMC if it meant playing in another city because the blueline here has become too crowded.

    However, that management has learned from this mistake and appears to be avoiding it in future negotiations is encouraging.

  12. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I don’t love the NMC but I understand it. Ference left a perennial contender in Boston to come home & finish out his career with one of the league’s weakest teams, & wanted some assurances that he would a) be able to do just that and b) might be around long enough to be here when this team is a contender in its own right.

    I know it’s easy as commenters to take the roster flexibility point of view and view NMCs in an entirely negative light, but there are reasons players ask for them, and they can be the sweetener that makes or breaks a negotiation. When you’re as desperate for NHL-proven talent as Oilers were last year and seeing a potential good fit in Andrew Ference, it’s understandable that they would go that extra mile. (Or three miles, as the case may be.)

  13. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Two other things about Andrew Ference that deserve some mention in here.

    1) He was awarded a major NHL honour last year, the King Clancy Memorial Trophy. Not often an Oiler so much as gets a vote for a trophy, let alone wins it.

    2) Andrew Ference is awesome. Just saying.

  14. czar says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks for sharing that Bruce, he took it a step further which is awesome.

  15. TheOtherJohn says:

    Oiler D this year is going to be fascinating to watch.

    I believe we have 2 D men who are capable of top 4 minutes on competitive NHL teams– Petry and Fayne. If Marincin plays like he did last year in a small sample that makes 3. If Nikitan is capable of competent top 4 minutes the Oilers, subject to injuries, should have a solid competent D. If he is what he showed last year in Columbus, he will be playing 3rd pairing minutes w Ference at a cost of $7.75m. That will be an awful lot of $$ for a 3rd pairing, both signed by MacT

    If Nikitan cannot play in the top 4 we need Schultz to be capable of top 4 minutes.If he’s still not capable of that level that will leave us 1-2 D short of a balanced group.

    Truly hope Marincin and one of Schultz or Nikitan is ready too go. If they are expect we will challenge fr a playoff spot into February. If not it is going to be another disappointing season.

  16. justDOit says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Two other things about Andrew Ference that deserve some mention in here.

    2) Andrew Ference is awesome. Just saying.

    He took that way farther than some cough-crosby-cough, who only put the ice in the bucket of water just before dumping it.

  17. Lois Lowe says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    These are important things. Properly slotted, I think Ference adds exactly the kind of leadership that the young Oilers need. My guess is that despite this being Hall’s team, it will be the Nuge that assumes Ference’s role in the community.

  18. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    I’m not complaining about his performance.

    I stated it’s pretty much as expected.

    I’m complaining that the roster was so weak he was slotted above his ability.

    I expect to improve in the immediate future.

  19. Frank The Dog says:

    I’d rather have a team of uber talented pricks that win the cup than a kumbaya choir of nice people in the dressing room that repeat our current record.
    Granted the pricks need to get along with each other or they wont win the cup anyway.
    Think Halls, Prongers, Chases, Nurses (of the Darnell type). Something like the Broad Street Bullies would suit this fan base perfectly.

  20. Racki says:

    I still would like to see the Oilers bring in an actual top pairing guy here rather than going with a lot of “hopefully”s. It’s a bit of the same old here and it’s not. It is, because they’re still hanging hope on guys that have some question marks (both Nikitin and Fayne have been mentioned as having success with specific D men). It’s not, because the underlying numbers do look good, at least at a certain stage of their career (in the case of Nikitin) and they’re much better on paper than your foster, barker, etc. risks.

    I’m cautiously optimistic but feel if somehow they could have acquired that legit top pair guy, the rest of the D get shoved down the depth chart and therefore have to play less above their abilities, potentially. Of course, acquiring that type is quite difficult though, so I didn’t expect it to happen.

    Here’s hoping that a lot of guys play their best this year and there are no more “passengers”.

  21. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I’ll clarify my feelings on the Ference contract and the NMC in particular.

    Offering the NMC to a player like Ference from the position the Oilers were in last summer is certainly understandable. Also, his AAV is very reasonable, considering where the cap is likely to be in two years’ time. He has shown some very strong leadership off the ice since joining the Oilers.

    My concern when MacTavish offered that NMC and then followed it up with another to Gagner was this was going to become a habit. Darryl Sutter and Jay Feaster fell into the same trap, giving out NMCs without receiving any reduction in AAV in exchange (Dennis Wideman, as an example).

    All that aside, that Ice Bucket Challenge is terrific. I’ve seen quite a few now and most are fairly run-of-the-mill. His, though, is outstanding.

    In fact, I think I may take to calling Ference, Walt.

    O Captain! my Captain! our fearful trip is done,

    The ship has weather’d every rack, the prize we sought is won,

    The port is near, the bells I hear, the people all exulting,

    While follow eyes the steady keel, the vessel grim and daring;

    But O heart! heart! heart!

    O the bleeding drops of red,

    Where on the deck my Captain lies,

    Fallen cold and dead.

    http://www.poetryfoundation.org/poem/174742

  22. Hammers says:

    Woodguy: Ca$h-Money!, I’m not complaining about his performance.I stated it’s pretty much as expected.I’m complaining that the roster was so weak he was slotted above his ability.I expect to improve in the immediate future.

    1,000 % accurate . Ference with the right partner will do his job and the last year of his contract he will be the #7 . Eakins toughest decision may end up being Nurse as I’m sure if he says to McT I want him after the 9 games McT will say yes . It will be Eakins / Ramsay decision .

  23. Henry says:

    Bruce McCurdy,
    RexLibris,

    There is little doubt that Ference is a special guy. I’m not sure that the NMC for an older player should cost in dollars. For a younger player, yes. I think the fourth year was negotiable over that point. Something like 2 years with an NMC and more money, three with an NTC or four with a limited NTC would have been appropriate.

  24. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Surely at this point the Gagner NMC is a moot point. It was limited to the middle year of the three, + he was actually moved before it kicked in.

    I do agree that NMCs shouldn’t be tossed around like confetti at a wedding, some teams have really hamstrung themselves with a surfeit of them. Oilers have just the one for their Edmonton-born captain, with a moderate cap hit < 5% of the ceiling. It's a consideration but hardly a crippling one.

  25. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    My only concern with the two NMCs was whether it was going to become a trend under MacTavish.

    We had no information on how he was going to behave when it came to contract signings, so to see two in short order on a UFA and RFA signing raised some red flags for me.

    The lack of any since is reassuring.

    They are one of many instruments at a GM’s disposal to enable him to carry out his responsibilities and heavy reliance on them is a signal, to me at least, that the GM may not have the best grasp on his duties.

  26. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Ference-Jultz
    Ference – This is where he should slot, still good enough to tread water vs 3rds
    Jultz – If he minimizes the moseying and lollygagging in the Dzone while getting better coaching he could improve in these conditions

    I agree with that entire post, but I remain a bit baffled by the pairing proposals that suggest that Jultz will be on the third pairing next year.

    He played more minutes at EV than any other defender (17:24 vs Petry next at 16:43) and more minutes on the PP than any other player (let alone defender) at 3:21 (vs 3:05 for Hall, and the next closest D was Larsen at 2:23).

    Justin Schultz was our de facto 1D last year.

    Even with the addition of two legit NHL D, I just don’t see any way that Jultz is on the third pairing next year.

    Maybe he should be. Certainly, to paraphrase LT’s earlier comment, “When Justin Schultz is your de facto 1D, you’re doing it wrong.”

    But third pairing? Just can’t see it.

  27. Zangetsu says:

    Same title, but I like this song better https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn-6eOxnEMI . It fits the oil I think.

    I don’t know how the pairings will shake out. I just don’t see the oil putting shultz on the third pair. They seem to think he will be a better EV player than I do. He probably plays second pair at least, and gets an ice time push. Petry is really starting to look like possible trade bait, since if Jultz is to get his playing time, petry will end up 3rd pairing.

    How awesome would it be to still have smid instead of absolutely nothing. Smid would be a good 3LD and would push ference into the press box. It would give marincin and klefbom more competition for a spot, and give us more padding for injury.

  28. Woodguy says:

    G Money: I agree with that entire post, but I remain a bit baffled by the pairing proposals that suggest that Jultz will be on the third pairing next year.

    He played more minutes at EV than any other defender (17:24 vs Petry next at 16:43) and more minutes on the PP than any other player (let alone defender) at 3:21 (vs 3:05 for Hall, and the next closest D was Larsen at 2:23).

    Justin Schultz was our de facto 1D last year.

    Even with the addition of two legit NHL D, I just don’t see any way that Jultz is on the third pairing next year.

    Maybe he should be.Certainly, to paraphrase LT’s earlier comment, “When Justin Schultz is your de facto 1D, you’re doing it wrong.”

    But third pairing?Just can’t see it.

    It’s more of an assignment rating than total 5v5 TOI measure.

    I expect Jultz to get a ton of ozone starts and to not see much of the Thornton, Pisscutters, Toews, etc of the world.

    I also expect that the 5v5 TOI from pairs 1-3 to be very close. Seeing only a 2min 5vD gap from 1-3 on any given night should be expected.

    The coach has more options and I expect him to use them.

    I don’t blame Eakins for playing Ference and Jultz so much last year or against 2nd toughs, they were his best option for those minutes.

    They aren’t anymore.

    Yandle played 3rd toughs for the first 5 years of his career. Nothing wrong with handling Jultz that way, especially now that they can.

  29. justDOit says:

    Zangetsu:

    How awesome would it be to still have smid instead of absolutely nothing. Smid would be a good 3LD and would push ference into the press box. It would give marincin and klefbom more competition for a spot, and give us more padding for injury.

    This says article says it was the right time to divest themselves of Smid.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/story/2014-08-06/relative-corsi-rel-definition-andrew-macdonald-flyers-bruins

  30. justDOit says:

    From the Struds piece over at ON: Mike Keenan once told me a great line: “When you are winning you don’t need the media, when you are losing they can’t help you.”

    Mike had obviously never heard of Lowetide, at that point in time.

  31. alice13 says:

    Woodguy:
    “The problem with the Edmonton Oilers since 2006 has been the number of players playing above their established NHL ability.”

    Indeed.

    “It comes directly from poor player development and poor pro player procurement.”

    Overstatement. Cole was a player, and Brodziak, Gilbert, Glencross too. We mishandled and pissed away plenty of what Was properly developed or wisely procured. Can’t blame it all on the inbounding programs.

  32. Woodguy says:

    alice13:
    Woodguy:
    “The problem with the Edmonton Oilers since 2006 has been the number of players playing above their established NHL ability.”

    Indeed.

    “It comes directly from poor player development and poor pro player procurement.”

    Overstatement. Cole was a player, andBrodziak, Gilbert, Glencross too.We mishandled and pissed away plenty of what Was properly developed or wisely procured. Can’t blame it all on the inbounding programs.

    That would fall under pro-procurement.

    Not keeping good players is a sub-heading.

  33. RexLibris says:

    justDOit: This says article says it was the right time to divest themselves of Smid.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/story/2014-08-06/relative-corsi-rel-definition-andrew-macdonald-flyers-bruins

    Reviewing Smid for a Flames RE.

    While I still wish we’d been able to trade Smid for Backlund (he was in Hartley’s doghouse at the time and rumoured to be available for as little as a 2nd round pick), Fayne and Nikitin both project to be better at impacting the game in relation to the current roster make up. Smid’s numbers didn’t look good in Calgary last year and don’t hold much promise for this coming season, either.

  34. VanOil says:

    Happy Gretzky trade day.

    Bob Waterman @esbbob · 3h
    Wayne Gretzky scored 1669 points for the Oilers. Since the trade, no Oiler has come within 1000 of that total (Ryan Smyth, 631).

    Bob Waterman @esbbob · 4h
    Since Oilers traded Wayne Gretzky 26 years ago today they have the 2nd-worst record of any of the 21 NHL teams at the time (NYI).

  35. russ99 says:

    VanOil,

    Ugh.

    But hey, we won a cup after Wayne and almost won another vs. Carolina.

    Back to Ference, the real problem to me is that vs. the better teams we’re going to need to run a tough D-zone start pairing and give them heavy minutes. That precludes Schultz, Marincin and Petry.

    I’d really prefer Fayne with Schultz but that leaves Nitikin and Ference as the tough d-zone pairing, and that doesn’t seem good enough. That’s why I’d like to see another D-invite to camp, a Fraser-type who can actually skate and make a play…

    I think Ference is a decent bottom pairing guy when used right, and Eakins needs to realize that some players just can’t be thrown out on the ice at any time and given crazy icetime if they play well or not so well. He has a better roster this year, let’s hope Ramsay gets in his head the right way to use it…

  36. supernova says:

    Woodguy:
    I’d like to state for the record that I think MacT had a great summer in terms of pro player procurement and that his insistence on OKC focus on prospect development is also excellent.

    The biggest failing (development/procurement) of the Oilers for the last 8 seasons is improving and will lead to having Actual NHL players slotted at or below their NHL ability.

    That means the Oilers will be a competitive team in the NHL, not just a team in the NHL.

    Agree completely.

    The direction is finally positive in many areas.

    Those 2 areas are frequent things I comment on. Fixing those areas will make the Oilers competitive.

    Shouldn’t have took 8 years but we are moving the right way.

  37. TheOtherJohn says:

    Tippett did a masterful job shielding Yandle from DZ starts, tough match ups while still giving him lots of PP ice time. He has developed into a world class player. Fact that Schultz got so much ice time was both organizational mistake and sign of just how weak our D was last year.

    Will watch with interest if Eakins picks his spots with Schultz this year. Because if not we’d better pray Nikitan is real top 4 D man.

    Oilers 2nd worst record in NHL out of 21 teams since the Gretzky trade 26 years ago. NYI. That is particularly tough considering we won one cup and made SCF in 06 since then

  38. RexLibris says:

    VanOil: Happy Gretzky trade day.Bob Waterman @esbbob · 3hWayne Gretzky scored 1669 points for the Oilers. Since the trade, no Oiler has come within 1000 of that total (Ryan Smyth, 631).Bob Waterman @esbbob · 4hSince Oilers traded Wayne Gretzky 26 years ago today they have the 2nd-worst record of any of the 21 NHL teams at the time (NYI).

    That’s it.

    I am going to join Twitter, follow Bob Waterman and then un-follow him just to show my displeasure over this reminder!

    ;)

    Cripes, that is depressing.

  39. justDOit says:

    RexLibris:
    Cripes, that is depressing.

    It’s as if the Oilers are owned by an alien race, that feeds off of our misery. You’d think they’d get all bloated and die, but I guess they must have this gluttony thing down pat!

  40. G Money says:

    Woodguy: I expect Jultz to get a ton of ozone starts and to not see much of the Thornton, Pisscutters, Toews, etc of the world.
    I also expect that the 5v5 TOI from pairs 1-3 to be very close. Seeing only a 2min 5vD gap from 1-3 on any given night should be expected.
    The coach has more options and I expect him to use them.
    I don’t blame Eakins for playing Ference and Jultz so much last year or against 2nd toughs, they were his best option for those minutes.
    They aren’t anymore.

    I hope you’re right.

    It would be great if Jultz could spend 15:00 a game playing against third tier opposition, and the rest of the time on the first unit PP. I suspect if he’d been able to do that last season, we’d be talking about his offensive prowess instead of his defensive shortcomings.

    The problem is that I’m not convinced that the TOI/QoC indicates anything other than Jultz as 1D.

    My handy dandy QoC view shows the list going Petry-Ference-Jultz-Marincin with fractions of a percent in range. With P/M bracketing F/S, it indicates the difference between first pairing and second pairing was basically nil. In fact, the lower QoC for Jultz can be explained by his higher EV TOI (though if you look at actual Against You TOI, there is still an argument that Petry was 1D and Schultz was 2D, despite the inverted TOI).

    In other words, Jultz was not sheltered really at all last year, though arguably he could have been. So I suspect that there is a very high likelihood that we’ll see more of the same this year (that is to say: Fayne takes the place of Ference and Jultz will continue to be part of a Top 4 rotation and lead the team in TOI).

    I hope not but I think so.

  41. Woodguy says:

    G Money: I hope you’re right.

    It would be great if Jultz could spend 15:00 a game playing against third tier opposition, and the rest of the time on the first unit PP.I suspect if he’d been able to do that last season, we’d be talking about his offensive prowess instead of his defensive shortcomings.

    The problem is that I’m not convinced that the TOI/QoC indicates anything other than Jultz as 1D.

    My handy dandy QoC view shows the list going Petry-Ference-Jultz-Marincin with fractions of a percent in range.With P/M bracketing F/S, it indicates the difference between first pairing and second pairing was basically nil.In fact, the lower QoC for Jultz can be explained by his higher EV TOI (though if you look at actual Against You TOI, there is still an argument that Petry was 1D and Schultz was 2D, despite the inverted TOI).

    In other words, Jultz was not sheltered really at all last year, though arguably he could have been.So I suspect that there is a very high likelihood that we’ll see more of the same this year (that is to say: Fayne takes the place of Ference and Jultz will continue to be part of a Top 4 rotation and lead the team in TOI).

    I hope not but I think so.

    To see how the coach actually uses them, look at their most common opponents for home games.

    Are you familiar with Extraskater.com?

    They have every game from last year and it will list every player’s most common opponents in each game (its sortable)

    If you go through the home games and compare Petry to Jultz you’ll see a clear demarcation of “pair one and pair two”

    Where the comp gets blended more is on the road.

    Opposing coaches chase better match ups and try to get their best line away from the opposition’s best pairing.

    In the end, you are right in that 1st and 2nd pairing comp come out not that different (at least by the metrics that BTN and Extraskater use), but when sorting by actual players against/TOI you’ll see it shakes out and you can see a difference.

    That being said, if Jultz moves down to 3rd pairing, his time will get a bit easier.

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