RE 14-15 ANTON LANDER: SHINE

Anton Lander was rushed to the NHL, and for most Oiler fans is a wild disappointment—the latest in many failed experiments from the draft list this century. I’m of a mind that the organization should be drawn and quartered for this kind of lunacy long before the prospects, and suspect you feel the same. It also true that the story isn’t over yet, there’s an enormously important chapter to be written. Call it ‘does he succeed with the Oilers?’ and know it’s here, and now. (Lander photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved).

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER (CORSI REL)

hall sledge corsi rel

RE 13-14 OKC REVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.500 ANTON LANDER OKC RE 13-14 22 5 6 11
1.13 ANTON LANDER OKC ACTUAL 13-14 46 18 34 52

RE 13-14 REVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.240 ANTON LANDER RE 13-14 50 4 8 12
.037 ANTON LANDER ACTUAL 13-14 27 0 1 1

RE 14-15 PREVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.200 ANTON LANDER RE 14-15 50 4 6 10
 

ANTON LANDER 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.21 (16th among forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: 13th toughest competition among regulars (fourth line)
  • Qual Team: 9th best competition among regulars (third line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 43.9
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -.2
  • Zone Start: 40% (6th toughest on the team among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: nil
  • Boxcars: 27, 0-1-1
  1. So, this is it? Damn straight. Eakins:“If (Lander) is going to play here, he has to be able to play centre, he has to play left-wing and he has to play right-wing. He has to be able to step in on the power play and kill penalties. He has to be able to wear a bunch of different hats.”
  2. Power play? Eakins is saying he needs to be versatile.
  3. Can he score on the power play? There’s not much evidence in the NHL. In the AHL:  43, 10-17-27 .627.
  4. Is that good? Roman Horak, who I felt would by vying for the same NHL job next season, went 53, 7-13-20 .377.
  5. So, excellent! Lander really made a step forward this past season, no doubt. You can see it in the OKC RE above, pre and post. He is now ready for a real NHL audition, and credit to MacT for bringing him back for another sortie.
  6. Where exactly is he with the organization right now?  I look at Lander’s current position as being extremely similar to Theo Peckham’s the summer he signed for 2011-12: There’s a giant opportunity here, but nothing has been decided at this time. If Lander comes in and plays well, he might end up having an NHL career after all. He needs to score, and he may not be at center come the fall. I count Nuge, Gordon and Arcobello fully ahead of him on points, and Leon Draisaitl will get a long look—9 games and likely more. The Lander contract may not have come without Horak’s jailbreak.
  7. Why can’t the Oilers identify the role players? They can and will, but there’s also a need to commit to a player for 45 games and see what he can do in a specific role. Signing Ryan Jones year after year, or even bringing in Joensuu a year ago, those were moves to buy time. NOW you let Lander loose, Pitlick loose. They don’t have Jones’ offense, but should be more effective players without the puck.
  8. And that’s what you’re projecting for Lander? Yes. And Pitlick.
  9. Is it enough? The good news is that Lander probably does have the defensive chops to survive in the NHL while delivering paltry offense. The bad news? I don’t know that the Oilers will value that aspect of his game to the point where they settle on him. He would do himself an enormous favor by scoring 10 goals this season.
  10. Did management give an indication beyond the Eakins verbal above about Lander? MacT: “Much like Chicago’s got where they have three lines of offensive guys and a fourth line that can play against anybody. That’s what we’d really like to do. We need (Anton) Lander to step up and (Mark) Arcobello, or add a free-agent forward or two who can compete for those jobs. Maybe somebody who could come in and be a good fit with Yak (Nail Yakupov on the third line). We have the first line (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle). If we can draft a guy at centre who can play, then we’d have that guy, Perron and Sam or some form of that.”
  11. What does that mean? When you take both quotes, I think they see Lander as a utility forward, who will play the tough 4line minutes as required and then jump up into the top 9F as needed. Vague info gets you vague answers, but that seems about right.
  12. Is he Stu’s best second-round pick? No, that title probably goes to Marincin for the next while. Lander has a chance to be No. 2 though, with Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton, David Musil, Mitch Moroz and Marco Roy encountering their own challenges.
  13. If Lander doesn’t stay with the big club, what happens then? I think Lander has enough talent to get a second NHL chance. If you’re Detroit or New Jersey, it would certainly be easy enough to create a scenario where it’s the team not the player. Lander has an old player’s talents anyway, so these early years weren’t going to be offensive monsters no matter the situation.
  14. Old player’s skills? Yes. A guy like Lander arrived defensively aware and with that kind of reputation. He was an effective two-way regular in the Swedish league at 19, and people talked about his leadership skills. In fact, the three Swedes of recent vintage who seemed to draw the most from the home crowd were Lander, Paajarvi and Klefbom. All three defense-first options. Funny, I’d never thought of it before. Probably Omark’s fault.
  15. Could he eventually be that 15 goal scorer you were talking about? Hope so. His AHL season a year ago compares well to Pisani’s.
  16. Really? Pisani didn’t arrive in the AHL until age 23, and his first AHL season saw him score about .5 points-per-game.
  17. So, there’s still hope? Sure. Edmonton may have a player here.
  18. Do you think he’ll be successful in the NHL? I think he might find a way.
  19. Do you think it will be in Edmonton? No idea.
  20. Nice. Well, I thought Hartikainen would be in the NHL last season, but Edmonton signed Joensuu in front of him.
  21. MacT didn’t do that to Lander this summer. Yes. True. The one good thing about the center position as it stands is the Oilers are really giving a chance to their youngsters.
  22. And my guess is that’s also a bad thing. Yes.
  23. Why this song? This is a very late song for Joni Mitchell, right at the end of her career. It’s really beautiful, her usual unique sound and her voice is mature and maybe truly warm for the first time. The lyric serves as prayer and blessing and wakeup call, and that’s a good song for Anton today.
  24. She took a shot at a few institutions. It’s Joni Mitchell.
  25. She didn’t mention the Oilers. She was just hitting the institutions that still matter.
  26. Time for Lander to shine? Whole damn franchise, really. Stop telling us you’re the smartest in the room. Not even your mothers believe you, and parents are tired of sending their kids here to catch the blame.
  27. Wow. All that in one song. Joni Mitchell’s a helluva sports writer.

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103 Responses to "RE 14-15 ANTON LANDER: SHINE"

  1. Woodguy says:

    Fernando Lander

    This is the year he becomes an Actual NHL player

  2. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I’ve got Lander pegged for the Will Acton/CVDV role this year. I think he plays between 9-35 games as mostly 4C, but with wing fill in options, depending on the injury/faltering play of others.

    The waiver or benchings will be interesting to follow this year.

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    A couple of thoughts on the last couple threads:

    1. Hendricks gets only 51 games? Is that an injury assumption LT or a trade?

    I don’t see how the Oilers can bench him 31 games with the current roster depth.

    2. Nuge isn’t going to make it?? What the hell is wrong with you people? What year is it?

    3. Subban isn’t a 1D?!

    man… Summer commenters… interesting bunch.

  4. meanashell11 says:

    Nope, Subban is not a 1D. Sorry

  5. Woodguy says:

    meanashell11:
    Nope, Subban is not a 1D. Sorry

    Excellent argument.

    Deep, well thought out and full of information.

    Would read again.

  6. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I’ve got Lander pegged for the Will Acton/CVDV role this year. I think he plays between 9-35 games as mostly 4C, but with wing fill in options, depending on the injury/faltering play of others.

    The waiver or benchings will be interesting to follow this year.

    I think Lander is going to wander around lines 3-4 depending on what is needed.

    If MacT adds a 2C (my magic 8 ball says “not likely”) then Lander is in tougher and probably fighting Pitlick for the last wing spot on the 4th.

    Injuries will keep him on the Oilers, but he’ll move around more than Arco did last year in terms of assignment.

  7. wordbird says:

    Woodguy,

    Ferlander?
    C’mon, Anton. Carpe Fucking Diem.

  8. Woodguy says:

    I was looking at some numbers on stats.hockeyanalysis.com and sorted all NHL players in the last 3 years with at least 2000min 5v5 TOI.

    I then sorted by 1st assists and saw this:

    CROSBY, SIDNEY 1.532
    MALKIN, EVGENI 1.198
    SPEZZA, JASON 1.132
    KANE, PATRICK 1.089
    STAAL, ERIC 1.063
    HALL, TAYLOR 1.058
    WHITNEY, RAY 1.047
    THORNTON, JOE 1.042
    GETZLAF, RYAN 0.988
    VANEK, THOMAS 0.988
    PURCELL, TEDDY 0.96
    EBERLE, JORDAN 0.915
    GIROUX, CLAUDE 0.911
    SEDIN, HENRIK 0.91
    CULLEN, MATT 0.903

    link to page: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201114&sit=5v5&pos=skaters&minutes=2000&teamid=0&type=individual&sort=ifassists60&sortdir=DESC

    First of all, Hall and Eberle are pretty damn good and Ray Whitney had ageless hands and brain.

    Secondly, Teddy Purcell shows up 11th on the list.

    Now we know that for most of those minutes Purcell was passing to “slapshot made human” Stamkos, who shot over 18% at 5v5 for these 3 years (witch!!!), so its tempting to dismiss them.

    But if you look at who Stamkos played most with, Marty St.Louis actually has more 5v5 TOI than Purcell, and he shows up at 40th on this list with .782 1st assists/60

    Perhaps Purcell is particularly adept at putting the puck on a plate for a shooter?

    If this is so, I think it would behoove Eakins to try Yak and Purcell together.

    Maybe sort the forward lines like:

    Gifted Kids
    Poo-Arco-Perron
    Yak-DrySaddle-Purcell

    Remember, Yak is LH and Perron is RH although they mostly play their off wing.

    I think you can mix and match wings without too much regard for their handedness, but I know that Eakins prefers sticks on the boards in the Dzone so moving Yak to LW and Perron to RW actually fits that better than the opposite.

  9. Woodguy says:

    wordbird:
    Woodguy,

    Ferlander?
    C’mon, Anton. Carpe Fucking Diem.

    Ferlander is good, but maybe a bit to close to Joffrey “Zoolander” Lupul.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: I think Lander is going to wander around lines 3-4 depending on what is needed.

    If MacT adds a 2C (my magic 8 ball says “not likely”) then Lander is in tougher and probably fighting Pitlick for the last wing spot on the 4th.

    Injuries will keep him on the Oilers, but he’ll move around more than Arco did last year in terms of assignment.

    Stauffer was free wheeling about the 2C spot the other day and kept saying “November” and basically gave the impression the idea is to run with things as is until something forces a decision, in which case it sounds like MacT feels he get a deal done fairly quickly, i.e., he has the assets and there are trading partners out there.

    In the same conversation he mentioned a lot hinged on how the teams stocked with Cs (he mentioned CBJ and NYI specifically) break camp… ie, the answer is a 2-way street and MacT is going to have to wait anyway to see if, for example, NYI are ready to run with Nelson and/or Strome after Tavares and Grabo and therefore maybe give up on someone else (he didn’t mention Nielson… I imagine the shitty end of the story here is that with NYI it is still gonna be Bailey).

    He did mention Anisimov by name regarding CBJs.

    ———–
    With Lander I think you are right except I think two things.

    1. based on Eakins’ comments and the way the roster is currently set (including waiver/contract situations), I think Lander is going to wander in the lineup a bit based on injury.

    2. BUT… I think the team has him in mind for the Acton/CVDV role as the guy that comes in and plays bottom roster C minutes.

    In part this is based on all we’ve heard this summer from OKC people (like Rocky, but also observers like Neal Livingston) who suggested that Lander really needs to play C to be effective and that he didn’t look right on the wing in the NHL (that could be the end of Lander if Eakins’ comments were the end of the story).

    BUT… the NHL club hired Bill Scott and Rocky Thompson. And, Nelson will be around all through TC. I think those OKC voices are going to lobby for Lander as a C.

  11. nycoil says:

    20. Nice. Well, I thought Hartikainen would be in the NHL last season, but Edmonton signed Joensuu in front of him.

    Good morning, LT. Hartikainen signed with Ufa June 10. Joensuu signed with Edmonton July 5. Is there some other evidence I am missing that supports your stance in point 20? The timeline makes it look like Joensuu was the response to losing Harski.

    P.S.- Did you see my maple walnut ice cream in Tokyo story from the other day?

    P.P.S.- Hit that little button again. It feels nice, I encourage others to do the same. Wish I could do more but am of limited free cash flow these days. It is free alright, but seems to flow only one way: the wrong way. You’re going the wrong way!!

  12. supernova says:

    Woodguy: I think Lander is going to wander around lines 3-4 depending on what is needed.

    If MacT adds a 2C (my magic 8 ball says “not likely”) then Lander is in tougher and probably fighting Pitlick for the last wing spot on the 4th.

    Injuries will keep him on the Oilers, but he’ll move around more than Arco did last year in terms of assignment.

    My question is how much rope does he have left?

    The coach can’t start out again like he started last year so
    1) lander makes the team and produces right away
    2) makes the team due to injuries but plays sparingly
    3) doesn’t make the team out of camp and either hits waivers or is a spot filler for the season.

    If Eakins has a short rope for himself, the player most likely to have the shortest is Lander. He is competing against Pitlick, Joensuu, Arco, Acton, Gazdic for ice time Lander has produced the least of these and has played and been given more opportunity than almost all.

    Very thin line left for lander IMO

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Perhaps Purcell is particularly adept at putting the puck on a plate for a shooter?
    If this is so, I think it would behoove Eakins to try Yak and Purcell together.

    Purcell mentioned in an Oilers vid (I’ll try and dig it up). that he liked passing (he I think giggled about who he was passing to), but mentioned that it’s part of his game that he needed to round out because he often thought after-the-fact that maybe he gave up shots.

    I think he said it was something he was going to try more here (shooting).

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=628759

    Ha!

    yea… c. 1:30 mark.

    he laughs about having people yelling “shoot” at him. He’ll fit right in.

  15. supernova says:

    Woodguy:
    I was looking at some numbers on stats.hockeyanalysis.com and sorted all NHL players in the last 3 years with at least 2000min 5v5 TOI.

    I then sorted by 1st assists and saw this:

    CROSBY, SIDNEY1.532
    MALKIN, EVGENI1.198
    SPEZZA, JASON1.132
    KANE, PATRICK1.089
    STAAL, ERIC1.063
    HALL, TAYLOR1.058
    WHITNEY, RAY1.047
    THORNTON, JOE1.042
    GETZLAF, RYAN0.988
    VANEK, THOMAS0.988
    PURCELL, TEDDY0.96
    EBERLE, JORDAN0.915
    GIROUX, CLAUDE0.911
    SEDIN, HENRIK0.91
    CULLEN, MATT0.903

    link to page:http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201114&sit=5v5&pos=skaters&minutes=2000&teamid=0&type=individual&sort=ifassists60&sortdir=DESC

    First of all, Hall and Eberle are pretty damn good and Ray Whitney had ageless hands and brain.

    Secondly, Teddy Purcell shows up 11th on the list.

    Now we know that for most of those minutes Purcell was passing to “slapshot made human” Stamkos, who shot over 18% at 5v5 for these 3 years (witch!!!), so its tempting to dismiss them.

    But if you look at who Stamkos played most with, Marty St.Louis actually has more 5v5 TOI than Purcell, and he shows up at 40th on this list with .782 1st assists/60

    Perhaps Purcell is particularly adept at putting the puck on a plate for a shooter?

    If this is so, I think it would behoove Eakins to try Yak and Purcell together.

    Maybe sort the forward lines like:

    Gifted Kids
    Poo-Arco-Perron
    Yak-DrySaddle-Purcell

    Remember, Yak is LH and Perron is RH although they mostly play their off wing.

    I think you can mix and match wings without too much regard for their handedness, but I know that Eakins prefers sticks on the boards in the Dzone so moving Yak to LW and Perron to RW actually fits that better than the opposite.

    Woodguy,

    Teddy has some interesting metrics, I remember Brian Lawton once saying one of his proudest “finds” was Teddy.

    Really can’t see Drai and Yak playing significant minutes together outside of injury.

    Seems like it would be exciting combo but …

    I don’t remember watching Teddy play, I keep expecting a Penner type player.

  16. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    NYI are ready to run with Nelson and/or Strome after Tavares and Grabo and therefore maybe give up on someone else (he didn’t mention Nielson… I imagine the shitty end of the story here is that with NYI it is still gonna be Bailey).
    He did mention Anisimov by name regarding CBJs.

    From what’s I’ve read out of New York, the Isles plan this:

    Tavares – 1st, Power v Power
    Grabbo – 2nd toughs,
    Strome – softer minutes, big ozone push
    Nielson – Maholtra minutes

    Nelson is penciled in with Okposo on Tavares’ wing.

    Also,

    I think the drop is Anisimov and I think its Perron going for him…..if it happens.

  17. Woodguy says:

    supernova,

    Really can’t see Drai and Yak playing significant minutes together outside of injury.

    I’ve heard that Yak is going to be sheltered to help his confidence and bring him up a little slower and I assume DrySaddle gets the same treatment given that he’s a rook, so I put them together.

  18. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    The hubbub out of Long Island makes sense.

    Snow watched his team get destroyed after Tavares went down in the Oly.

    I’d bet he’s loathe to give up a C in case of injury and they like Nelson as a big winger.

  19. Henry says:

    Woodguy,

    Excellent analysis with the first assists log.

  20. Pouzar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Regarding #2 I have NO IDEA what people are thinking. Nuge is the least of my worries.
    56 points last year and we are questioning if he’s “made it”. Kid is a ninja.

  21. Pouzar says:

    meanashell11:
    Nope, Subban is not a 1D. Sorry

    BBBIULQ says he is.

  22. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: From what’s I’ve read out of New York, the Isles plan this:
    Tavares – 1st, Power v Power
    Grabbo – 2nd toughs,
    Strome – softer minutes, big ozone push
    Nielson – Maholtra minutes
    Nelson is penciled in with Okposo on Tavares’ wing.

    Interesting. I hadn’t crossed that line of thought anywhere. Got a link.

    Last year, didn’t look much like that.

    http://www.extraskater.com/players/dashboard?min_gp=50&pos=F&team=nyi#player-usage-chart

    The Nielson/Bailey line (which I assume stays together) was in the classic Kesler/Kopitar (2nd toughs) range

    The guy buried in the muck (but with comp reprieval) is Cizikas, just resigned:

    http://www.capgeek.com/player/2051

    and he took the 3rd most draws last year. over 1000

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-faceoff-statistics/2013/

    next highest on the team is Nelson c. 450.

    I think he’s the guy they see in the Malholtra/Kruger role, though I don’t see them running the model in its extreme variations.

    There’s also Anders Lee in there somewhere looking for a spot. If they keep all or most of them, my guess is Nelson (as you say) and Strome stay on the wings.

    Tav
    Nielson
    Grabbo
    Cizikas

    Nielson and Grabo could be inverted really.

  23. Hammers says:

    We can say Lander is the #5 “C” but only if Leon makes it and Arco actually comes through ..I can also see Lander at least the #5 winger either side so my point is if he is the #5 at all 3 forward positions so he will play about 60 games just due to injuries alone .The other point is McT always had extra centers hanging around both in his top 12 and definitely his top 14 . As for ” the trade ” it only happens if Leon doesn’t play more than 9 games . If he proves to be a winner there is no need to trade for any center . The only way I see Lander in trouble is if a better option comes over the waiver wire in Oct .As for our starting 12 forwards right now I would show him playing and on the 4th line as he can handle the defensive side and would be on the PK.

  24. nycoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Sorry, just the bit about Nelson as 1LW.
    Having re-read your post, I see that you were probably saying you didn’t see WG’s usage break down in the same manner.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Interesting. I hadn’t crossed that line of thought anywhere. Got a link.

    Last year, didn’t look much like that.

    http://www.extraskater.com/players/dashboard?min_gp=50&pos=F&team=nyi#player-usage-chart

    The Nielson/Bailey line (which I assume stays together) was in the classic Kesler/Kopitar (2nd toughs) range

    The guy buried in the muck (but with comp reprieval) is Cizikas, just resigned:

    http://www.capgeek.com/player/2051

    and he took the 3rd most draws last year. over 1000

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-faceoff-statistics/2013/

    next highest on the team is Nelson c. 450.

    I think he’s the guy they see in the Malholtra/Kruger role.

    There’s also Anders Lee in there somewhere looking for a spot. If they keep all or most of them, my guess is Nelson (as you say) and Strome stay on the wings.

    Tav
    Nielson
    Grabbo
    Cizikas

    Nielson and Grabo could be inverted really.

    You’re making some incorrect assumptions.

    Nelson played wing until Taveres went down.

    Look at faceoffs/gm

    Nelson 451FO/72gm = 6.2/gm
    Strome 374FO/37gms = 10/gm

    The Isles see Strome (5th overall in 2011) as the long term 2C behind Tavares and he will play C this year. Soft w/ozone starts like we expect DrySaddle to get this year.

    I think you not slotting Strome at C is where your assumptions start to compound.

    They’ve brought him along slowly so we tend to forget him and underestimate how the org sees him.

    Nielsen is an established and excellent C, as is Grabbo.

    Cizikas did have the heavy lifting 4C role last year, but that doesn’t mean he gets it this year.

    Strome and Grabbo taking C spots means that Cizkas is either on the wing or a scratch unless there is an injury.

    Assuming everyone is healthy Tavares, Grabbo, Strome and Neilsen are the starting C’s.

    As far as where I read the line up thing, I forget exactly but I follow @garik16 and he’s a good NYI blogger. It was a link from one of his posts, and I also put the question to him.

  26. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy,

    Nelson played wing until Taveres went down.

    This isn’t entirely correct, but he was more wing than C until Tavares went down.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: You’re making some incorrect assumptions.
    Nelson played wing until Taveres went down.

    I’m not sure I said otherwise. curious.

    Woodguy: Look at faceoffs/gm
    Nelson 451FO/72gm = 6.2/gm
    Strome 374FO/37gms = 10/gm

    yes? and?

    I’m well aware of this. I’ve written about the C position on the Island. I know who took the number of draws and how many per game and so forth.

    I’m not sure why you think I’ve made some out-of-sorts statement regarding Nelson and Strome. I think you’ve projected something strange here.

    I said:

    “MacT is going to have to wait anyway to see if, for example, NYI are ready to run with Nelson and/or Strome after Tavares and Grabo”

    This is still an open question on the Islander from what I’ve read (NYCoil’s post simply confirms what I’ve stated. Jack Cap loves Nelson and wants to put him at C, but for a variety of reasons probably won’t).

    I don’t think the C depth chart is clear yet. And, as I said later, if they keep them all, both likely play on the wing next year.

    Woodguy: The Isles see Strome (5th overall in 2011) as the long term 2C behind Tavares and he will play C this year. Soft w/ozone starts like we expect DrySaddle to get this year.

    Could well be. I haven’t said otherwise. I imagine in their fantasies they’ve got Tav-Strome-Nelson as their 3 scoring lines.

    But, I also don’t think they “know” anything yet. One year ago Nelson hadn’t played a single regular season NHL game.

    Woodguy: I think you not slotting Strome at C is where your assumptions start to compound.
    They’ve brought him along slowly so we tend to forget him and underestimate how the org sees him.

    I don’t get this at all. How have I forgotten him? I brought him up as in the mix to start the year at C and push someone out.

    I imagine if they start him at C, or get to it eventually, they do it as you suggest. Easy-peasy with help and maybe even with a C on his wing to take draws if he struggles.

    Woodguy: Nielsen is an established and excellent C, as is Grabbo.

    Yes. I’ve said as much.

    Woodguy: Cizikas did have the heavy lifting 4C role last year, but that doesn’t mean he gets it this year.

    Agreed here. But, absent new info… again do you have a link here? I’m not doubting you, I just don’t know…. you have to assume the guy that took c. 1000 draws and got re-signed is in consideration for his old job.

    To just assume he isn’t going to have a chance to play the same role under the same coach doesn’t seem reasonable. But, he certainly could get squeezed out. I don’t doubt it.

    Woodguy: Strome and Grabbo taking C spots means that Cizkas is either on the wing or a scratch unless there is an injury.

    Again, I’m not sure Strome is guaranteed a C spot. But, if he is, it is very likely (absent trade, injury, etc.) Cizkas has to play wing or sit or go down. Sure.

    Woodguy: As far as where I read the line up thing, I forget exactly but I follow @garik16 and he’s a good NYI blogger. It was a link from one of his posts, and I also put the question to him.

    Garik16 and other Isles bloggers are great. But, don’t you think a mathy blogger and the Islanders diverge as to roster construction?

    I wouldn’t cite MC79, for example, on how I think the Oilers are going to be used next year.

    Did @DFriedmanOnNYI mention something like this?

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: You’re making some incorrect assumptions.
    Nelson played wing until Taveres went down.

    I’m not sure I said otherwise. curious.

    Woodguy: Look at faceoffs/gm
    Nelson 451FO/72gm = 6.2/gm
    Strome 374FO/37gms = 10/gm

    yes? and?

    I’m well aware of this. I’ve written about the C position on the Island. I know who took the number of draws and how many per game and so forth.

    I’m not sure why you think I’ve made some out-of-sorts statement regarding Nelson and Strome. I think you’ve projected something strange here.

    I said:

    “MacT is going to have to wait anyway to see if, for example, NYI are ready to run with Nelson and/or Strome after Tavares and Grabo”

    This is still an open question on the Islander from what I’ve read (NYCoil’s post simply confirms what I’ve stated. Jack Cap loves Nelson and wants to put him at C, but for a variety of reasons probably won’t).

    I don’t think the C depth chart is clear yet. And, as I said later, if they keep them all, both likely play on the wing next year.

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: The Isles see Strome (5th overall in 2011) as the long term 2C behind Tavares and he will play C this year. Soft w/ozone starts like we expect DrySaddle to get this year.

    Could well be. I haven’t said otherwise. I imagine in their fantasies they’ve got Tav-Strome-Nelson as their 3 scoring lines.

    But, I also don’t think they “know” anything yet. One year ago Nelson hadn’t played a single regular season NHL game.

    Woodguy: I think you not slotting Strome at C is where your assumptions start to compound.
    They’ve brought him along slowly so we tend to forget him and underestimate how the org sees him.

    I don’t get this at all. How have I forgotten him? I brought him up as in the mix to start the year at C and push someone out.

    I imagine if they start him at C, or get to it eventually, they do it as you suggest. Easy-peasy with help and maybe even with a C on his wing to take draws if he struggles.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Nielsen is an established and excellent C, as is Grabbo.

    Yes. I’ve said as much.

    Woodguy: Cizikas did have the heavy lifting 4C role last year, but that doesn’t mean he gets it this year.

    Agreed here. But, absent new info… again do you have a link here? I’m not doubting you, I just don’t know…. you have to assume the guy that took c. 1000 draws and got re-signed is in consideration for his old job.

    To just assume he isn’t going to have a chance to play the same role under the same coach doesn’t seem reasonable. But, he certainly could get squeezed out. I don’t doubt it.

    Woodguy: Strome and Grabbo taking C spots means that Cizkas is either on the wing or a scratch unless there is an injury.

    Again, I’m not sure Strome is guaranteed a C spot. But, if he is, it is very likely (absent trade, injury, etc.) Cizkas has to play wing or sit or go down. Sure.

    Woodguy: As far as where I read the line up thing, I forget exactly but I follow @garik16 and he’s a good NYI blogger. It was a link from one of his posts, and I also put the question to him.

    Garik16 and other Isles bloggers are great. But, don’t you think a mathy blogger and the Islanders diverge as to roster construction?

    I wouldn’t cite MC79, for example, on how I think the Oilers are going to be used next year.

    Did @DFriedmanOnNYI mention something like this?

  31. gd says:

    Woodguy:
    I was looking at some numbers on stats.hockeyanalysis.com and sorted all NHL players in the last 3 years with at least 2000min 5v5 TOI.

    I then sorted by 1st assists and saw this:

    CROSBY, SIDNEY1.532
    MALKIN, EVGENI1.198
    SPEZZA, JASON1.132
    KANE, PATRICK1.089
    STAAL, ERIC1.063
    HALL, TAYLOR1.058
    WHITNEY, RAY1.047
    THORNTON, JOE1.042
    GETZLAF, RYAN0.988
    VANEK, THOMAS0.988
    PURCELL, TEDDY0.96
    EBERLE, JORDAN0.915
    GIROUX, CLAUDE0.911
    SEDIN, HENRIK0.91
    CULLEN, MATT0.903

    link to page:http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201114&sit=5v5&pos=skaters&minutes=2000&teamid=0&type=individual&sort=ifassists60&sortdir=DESC

    First of all, Hall and Eberle are pretty damn good and Ray Whitney had ageless hands and brain.

    Secondly, Teddy Purcell shows up 11th on the list.

    Now we know that for most of those minutes Purcell was passing to “slapshot made human” Stamkos, who shot over 18% at 5v5 for these 3 years (witch!!!), so its tempting to dismiss them.

    But if you look at who Stamkos played most with, Marty St.Louis actually has more 5v5 TOI than Purcell, and he shows up at 40th on this list with .782 1st assists/60

    Perhaps Purcell is particularly adept at putting the puck on a plate for a shooter?

    If this is so, I think it would behoove Eakins to try Yak and Purcell together.

    Maybe sort the forward lines like:

    Gifted Kids
    Poo-Arco-Perron
    Yak-DrySaddle-Purcell

    Remember, Yak is LH and Perron is RH although they mostly play their off wing.

    I think you can mix and match wings without too much regard for their handedness, but I know that Eakins prefers sticks on the boards in the Dzone so moving Yak to LW and Perron to RW actually fits that better than the opposite.

    I think the Purcell for Gagner trade might be even better than the Perron trade. From what I can tell, the only reason TB is moving him was they feel they are a legit cup contender and they needed his cap space to get the guys like Boyle and Stralman and they have a guy like Drouin coming in. He should be able to play either wing on any line from 1-3 and be an effective contributor. He seems like a slightly more skilled, slightly smaller, Newfie version of Penner.

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    https://twitter.com/DFriedmanOnNYI/status/484477214520377344

    Daniel Friedman ‏@DFriedmanOnNYI Jul 2
    Tavares, Grabovski, Nielsen, Cizikas. Other than Pittsburgh, #Isles are deeper down the middle than anyone else in their division.

    ——–
    Kevin Morris ‏@KMO429 Jul 2
    @DFriedmanOnNYI Strome?

    Daniel Friedman ‏@DFriedmanOnNYI Jul 2
    @KMO429 Looks like he’ll be on the wing now.

    ——–
    Doesn’t prove Strome won’t be at C at all. But, I think labelling this a foregone conclusion, rather than an open competition, is closer to an incorrect assumption ;)

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    gd: I think the Purcell for Gagner trade might be even better than the Perron trade. From what I can tell, the only reason TB is moving him was they feel they are a legit cup contender and they needed his cap space to get the guys like Boyle and Stralman and they have a guy like Drouin coming in. He should be able to play either wing on any line from 1-3 and be an effective contributor. He seems like a slightly more skilled, slightly smaller, Newfie version of Penner.

    TB’s UFA signings are actually an interesting thing to track in their own right:

    Guys like Callahan and Morrow mixed in with Stralman and Filppula.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    yes? and?

    Showing that the org is (correctly) giving Strome the push at C and that he given that, Nelson isn’t likely to play C next year with the other C’s on the roster.

    “MacT is going to have to wait anyway to see if, for example, NYI are ready to run with Nelson and/or Strome after Tavares and Grabo”

    Again, I don’t think that Nelson plays C. Not with Grabbo coming on.

    Garik16 and other Isles bloggers are great. But, don’t you think a mathy blogger and the Islanders diverge as to roster construction?
    I wouldn’t cite MC79, for example, on how I think the Oilers are going to be used next year.
    Did @DFriedmanOnNYI mention something like this?

    That’s a double edged sword.

    Most Oilers bloggers know player usage and potential player usage better than the Oiler MSM.

    According to many local MSM Ference-Jultz was the top pairing D last year.

    Some NYI MSM might be better. I know Botta is better, even though he isn’t MSM anymore.

    Anyhow what I said was:

    It was a link from one of his posts, and I also put the question to him.

    He didn’t write the piece, he linked to it. After reading it I asked his thoughts and he agreed with what the piece had said.

    It might have been the same one NYOIL linked to.

  35. gd says:

    Woodguy: You’re making some incorrect assumptions.

    Nelson played wing until Taveres went down.

    Look at faceoffs/gm

    Nelson 451FO/72gm = 6.2/gm
    Strome 374FO/37gms = 10/gm

    The Isles see Strome (5th overall in 2011) as the long term 2C behind Tavares and he will play C this year.Soft w/ozone starts like we expect DrySaddle to get this year.

    I think you not slotting Strome at C is where your assumptions start to compound.

    They’ve brought him along slowly so we tend to forget him and underestimate how the org sees him.

    Nielsen is an established and excellent C, as is Grabbo.

    Cizikas did have the heavy lifting 4C role last year, but that doesn’t mean he gets it this year.

    Strome and Grabbo taking C spots means that Cizkas is either on the wing or a scratch unless there is an injury.

    Assuming everyone is healthy Tavares, Grabbo, Strome and Neilsen are the starting C’s.

    As far as where I read the line up thing, I forget exactly but I follow @garik16 and he’s a good NYI blogger.It was a link from one of his posts, and I also put the question to him.

    One thing about the Islanders last year is they went 12-7-3 after Tavares got hurt and their schedule was incredibly easy. Kind of a bizarre double whammy. I don’t know exactly how that would impact their stats, but I’ve got to think it would impact the WOWY and Qual Teammate/Comp for some of their younger guys like Lee, De Haan and maybe even Nelson.

  36. gd says:

    I keep thinking Lander is perfectly suited to follow the Ben Smith role to Gordon’s Krueger. I know his AHL stats were PP enhanced, but there are not many guys younger than him who score over a pt a game in the AHL. He is younger than Nyquist when he was still in the AHL, and he is younger than Tatar, Anders Lee and Haula. All I know is if he had his stats at his age for Grand Rapids, people would be saying you get Brendan Sutter in a trade for him.

  37. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    https://twitter.com/DFriedmanOnNYI/status/484477214520377344

    Daniel Friedman ‏@DFriedmanOnNYIJul 2
    Tavares, Grabovski, Nielsen, Cizikas. Other than Pittsburgh, #Isles are deeper down the middle than anyone else in their division.

    ——–
    Kevin Morris ‏@KMO429Jul 2
    @DFriedmanOnNYI Strome?

    Daniel Friedman ‏@DFriedmanOnNYIJul 2
    @KMO429 Looks like he’ll be on the wing now.

    ——–
    Doesn’t prove Strome won’t be at C at all. But, I think labelling this a foregone conclusion, rather than an open competition, is closer to an incorrect assumption

    Strome will get the management push for C and saying Cizikas has 4C locked up is a little pre-mature.

    What you’ll notice about Cizikas’s usage is that he’s tough zone starts, but also softer comp.

    Not top left quadrant, but bottom left.

    CHI’s 4th line is top left quadrant.

    That is what I’m suggesting NYI is going to try as well.

    A good tough 4th with decent players that not only get the shitty end of the zone starts, but the tougher comp.

    Its my contention that Cizkas doesn’t have a history of playing that spot, but Nielsen does.

    With also loaded as NYI is at C it makes no sense to deploy the 4th line like they have in Cizkas tenure. It will be much harder comp imo.

    Also, NYI has much better C depth than PIT so I’m already questioning how Freidman forms his opinons.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: yes? and?
    Showing that the org is (correctly) giving Strome the push at C and that he given that, Nelson isn’t likely to play C next year with the other C’s on the roster.

    It’s a marginal push, I agree. My point was… how does this contradict anything I’ve said? It doesn’t. I’ve explicitly stated that Strome is likely in the mix to play Center next year. Many times now.

    Woodguy: Again, I don’t think that Nelson plays C. Not with Grabbo coming on.

    I don’t necessarily think so either. Nor did I say so. I said, the center question on the Island depends, in part, on whether they decide to play him at C. Not that they would.

    IF they decide to play him at C… and they are clearly thinking about it:

    “It’s always tough for me to take a 6-foot-3 guy like Brock Nelson out of the middle,” Capuano said. “He really established himself as one of the top young centermen in the League for me. He’s so smart, he’s got great intelligence of the game. But if we have to do that and try him on the wing on Johnny’s line to see how that goes, we’re open to do that as well.

    “The good thing is that we have options and we’ve got some healthy competition, which is great.”

    (nycoil’s link)

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=727298

    then someone else pops to the wing or out somehow. That’s all. pretty straightforward.

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Friedman also has Nelson on the wing:

    17. With a glut of centres, Capuano said that Brock Nelson is going to get a shot at the wing with John Tavares (who is skating again) and Kyle Okposo. Nelson played with them on the power play and spent time on the wing at the world championships. Frans Nielsen is not switching positions. “Frans is one of the smartest players in hockey. And he thinks the game as a centre.”

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hockey/opinion/2014/07/30-thoughts-nhl-defenceman-cash-in-on-free-agent-frenzy.html

    I’m well aware of this. Doesn’t mean they won’t consider him at C. Doesn’t mean they won’t put him at C if they like Tav-Grabbo-X-Cizikas and trade Nielson… any number of things might happen.

    Woodguy: That’s a double edged sword.
    Most Oilers bloggers know player usage and potential player usage better than the Oiler MSM.
    According to many local MSM Ference-Jultz was the top pairing D last year.
    Some NYI MSM might be better. I know Botta is better, even though he isn’t MSM anymore.

    Sure… but the question wasn’t about usage in the past but as a projection. That’s something that, by the nature of the information, has to come from an insider or a public statement by the team. we have no track record of them producing the lineup you’ve suggested for a blogger to pick up on in the usage.

    again, doesn’t mean it won’t happen. All I’ve said, is I haven’t read it anywhere and suggested a plausible alternative which you have questioned as based on incorrect assumptions.

    I really have no idea how you can make that claim without providing some kind of up-to-date source.

  40. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Anyhow what I said was:
    It was a link from one of his posts, and I also put the question to him.
    He didn’t write the piece, he linked to it. After reading it I asked his thoughts and he agreed with what the piece had said.
    It might have been the same one NYOIL linked to.

    Interesting. If you can find it, I’d love to read it.

    If it was the piece NYoil posted or the Friedman piece…. it isn’t new information and doesn’t, frankly, differ in anyway from my take on the Islanders… not that I can see.

    Woodguy: Strome will get the management push for C and saying Cizikas has 4C locked up is a little pre-mature.

    What is the source for the management push at C?

    They’ve been careful with him as you note. I could easily see an management push for a mix-and-match line with another C on his wing as I suggested above. They have enough Cs afterall. A pairing of Strome/Nielson or Strome/Grabbo or Strome/Bailey could well be in the cards.

    This doesn’t contradict what I’ve said BTW.

    And, who’s said “Cizikas has 4C locked up”?

    no one.

    Woodguy: What you’ll notice about Cizikas’s usage is that he’s tough zone starts, but also softer comp.
    Not top left quadrant, but bottom left.

    You mean what I pointed out way up thread?

    Romulus Apotheosis: Last year, didn’t look much like that.
    http://www.extraskater.com/players/dashboard?min_gp=50&pos=F&team=nyi#player-usage-chart
    The Nielson/Bailey line (which I assume stays together) was in the classic Kesler/Kopitar (2nd toughs) range
    The guy buried in the muck (but with comp reprieval) is Cizikas, just resigned:

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: CHI’s 4th line is top left quadrant.
    That is what I’m suggesting NYI is going to try as well.
    A good tough 4th with decent players that not only get the shitty end of the zone starts, but the tougher comp.
    Its my contention that Cizkas doesn’t have a history of playing that spot, but Nielsen does.

    That’s a fine and interesting contention. I take no issue with it.

    What I’m trying to figure out is whether your contention is based on how you/other onlookers would run things, or based on something the team has said or told the press?

    And, I’m trying to figure what I’ve said that constitutes “incorrect assumptions”

    FWIW, I haven’t dismissed your contention. I’ve simple suggested recent history (absent some piece of reporting I’m not privy to) doesn’t suggest this is a foregone conclusion. Until we know more, it seems perfectly reasonable to assume Cizikas will be given an opportunity to win his job back, which is all I’ve suggested here.

    It also seems reason to suggest Nelson and Strome might just end up playing center this year, though both may end up on the wing.

    You’ll note I haven’t taken an unqualified, unmodified position on any of these things throughout…

    ——
    ps. sorry for the number of posts. LT’s system won’t let you do it all in one go… the automatic moderator hates it.

  42. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Also, NYI has much better C depth than PIT so I’m already questioning how Freidman forms his opinons.

    I think his opinions are crap. He’s an avowed old hat guy.

    I’m interested in his insight into the team’s thinking.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Sure… but the question wasn’t about usage in the past but as a projection. That’s something that, by the nature of the information, has to come from an insider or a public statement by the team. we have no track record of them producing the lineup you’ve suggested for a blogger to pick up on in the usage.
    again, doesn’t mean it won’t happen. All I’ve said, is I haven’t read it anywhere and suggested a plausible alternative which you have questioned as based on incorrect assumptions.
    I really have no idea how you can make that claim without providing some kind of up-to-date source.

    Even after MacT spelled out how he’s going to use Gordon as a tough minute DZS C the local MSM still can’t get it straight. He’s slotted at 2C and 3C all time by the local fishwraps.

    I think I see where this thing went off the rails.

    You said:

    next highest on the team is Nelson c. 450.
    I think he’s the guy they see in the Malholtra/Kruger role.

    I took that to mean that NELSON was playing the Maholtra role, not CIzkas.

    That is the “assumption” I accused you of, Nelson playing the Maholtra role.

    All makes sense now.

  44. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 6m
    A settlement between PK Subban and MTL is imminent. New deal coming.

  45. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Chris Johnston ‏@reporterchris 7s
    It’s an eight-year deal for P.K. Subban with the #habs.

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 8s
    To be clear, the Subban deal with MTL is a negotiated settlement/new contract. It is not the pending one-year salary arbitration award.

    Renaud Lavoie ‏@renlavoietva 23s
    Contrat de 8 ans pour PK Subban. #canadiens #tvasports

    http://canadiens.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=727650

  46. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    What is the source for the management push at C?

    Three things:

    1) He has played C almost exclusively in his 37 at bats.
    2) There’s a hole at Tavares wing that he doesn’t fill, but Nelson does
    3) They are too deep at forward now to have a throw away line (gritty jammy) like they did last year with Cizkas, Martin, McDonald.

    With their forward group it looks more like you could do something like:

    Okposo-Tavares-Nelson PvP
    Kulimen-Grabbo-Grabner 2nds and not worry who their out against
    Anders-Strome-Bailey soft with ozs
    Clutterbuck-Nielsen-Cizkas Heavy lifting

  47. Woodguy says:

    Speeds asked me to justify NYI C depth > PIT C depth

    I’ll give you Crosby and Malkin are 1,2 in the group, but the next 4 are all NYI

    Tavares
    Grabbo
    Nielsen
    Strome

    Hell, I even have Nelson ahead of Sutter and Goc.

    Sutter and Goc’s lines are a key reason why PIT has beat in the 2nd round last year and they did nothing to address it.

    Head to head NYI has Nielsen to minimize one of Crosby or Malkin.

    PIT has no one to minimize Tavares.

    So if you run Neilsen vs Crosby and Tavares vs Malkin, I think its very close, with an edge to PIT.

    Then Grabbo & Strome vs Goc and Sutter is a blow out.

    Depth.

    Even if you run Sutter vs one of Tavares or Grabbo NYI wins that match up in a walk.

    Nielsen is an actual elite shut down C who should have won the Selke the year Kesler did it playing 3rd toughest comp on VAN, PIT has no answer to that and it tips the scales severely.

  48. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 31s
    $9M AAV

    Boom.

    dudes finally figured it out and paid the man.

    I’m guessing MB had a long stare in the mirror after that arb meeting. “This isn’t working out is it?” he said to his mirror-self.

  49. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC31s
    $9M AAV

    Boom.

    dudes finally figured it out and paid the man.

    I’m guessing MB had a long stare in the mirror after that arb meeting. “This isn’t working out is it?” he said to his mirror-self.

    Brilliant move giving him a bridge deal instead of locking him up long term at $6-$7MM.

    They sure used those two years of cheap PK wisely.

  50. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yeah, it’s puzzling that they had to go through four hours (purportedly) of back-and-forth in arbitration before realizing this.

    And again, as with Eller, the player got more in a straight deal than the player had submitted for arbitration.

  51. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: You said:
    next highest on the team is Nelson c. 450.
    I think he’s the guy they see in the Malholtra/Kruger role.
    I took that to mean that NELSON was playing the Maholtra role, not CIzkas.
    That is the “assumption” I accused you of, Nelson playing the Maholtra role.
    All makes sense now.

    I see. That is quite a different case altogether.

  52. nycoil says:

    $72MM/8yrs. Wow. Up there. Knowing Subban submitted less than that for arbitration, I guess that means his free agent years are closer to $10M per?

    The Islander have built a nice lineup. On paper it looks playoff-calibre in the weaker East now that they have Halak replacing their .898 goalies.

    I mentioned it in another thread as well, but they’ve done a nice job of breaking in many of their nice centres on the wing, something I wish the Oilers would do a bit more of.

  53. Pouzar says:

    Not a bad salary for less than a #1 d-man.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Brilliant move giving him a bridge deal instead of locking him up long term at $6-$7MM.

    They sure used those two years of cheap PK wisely.

    Shows the importance of trying to use underlying numbers with young players as much as possible. The adv. stats. people were way ahead of the curve on PK’s future.

    Everyone else just saw “flash” and felt that desperate need to “old man” some kid for having too much fun.

  55. Pouzar says:

    nycoil:
    $72MM/8yrs. Wow. Up there. Knowing Subban submitted less than that for arbitration, I guess that means his free agent years are closer to $10M per?

    The Islander have built a nice lineup. On paper it looks playoff-calibre in the weaker East now that they have Halak replacing their .898 goalies.

    I mentioned it in another thread as well, but they’ve done a nice job of breaking in many of their nice centres on the wing, something I wish the Oilers would do a bit more of.

    What nice centers?

  56. Woodguy says:

    nycoil,

    I mentioned it in another thread as well, but they’ve done a nice job of breaking in many of their nice centres on the wing, something I wish the Oilers would do a bit more of.

    It helps to keep drafting good C prospects every year:

    2002 – Neilsen (3rd round)
    2003 – NIlsson (1st round)
    2005 – O’Marra (1st round)
    2008 – Bailey (1st round)
    2009 – Tavres (1st overall), Cizkas (4th round)
    2010 – Nelson (1st round)
    2011 – Strome (1st round)
    2014 – Ho Sang (1st round)

    They’ve been wandering the desert for a long time, but I think they are about the become a perennial power in the East.

    And they are sill under the cap by $10MM with 26 players on the roster.

    Wait until they have more money to spend.

  57. nycoil says:

    Pouzar,

    Woodguy,

    Yes, it helps to draft nice centres to have nice centres, but just making an old, standard observation that centres adapt more easily to wing than the other way around, and that hasn’t stopped the Islanders from continuing to draft them based on BPA (Bailey being the most obvious exception where they traded down to get him).

    I agree the Isles are about to turn the corner just in time for the move to Barclays and the team gets sold. They are going to be a big thing in New York again and give the Rangers a run for their money.

    By that I mean a run for being the most popular team in the area. A lot of old-time Islanders fans hidden out there in the woodwork that are going to come back.

  58. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: 1) He has played C almost exclusively in his 37 at bats.

    This was context specific though.

    They don’t see Nelson, for example, as a winger. They just like his chem with Tavares, or how they hope it will be at any rate. They’ve only got less than 100 minutes of 5×5 time to go on so far:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1816&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

    And, they don’t have another winger they think they can play power-v-power without either Moulson or Vanek.

    If they had an elite LW to play with Tav and Okp, I’m not convinced Nelson doesn’t play C. He may any way at some point down the line, maybe this year.

    the other context is Tav going down and the youth of Strome. I agree they see him as a center… but will he take 700-800++ draws this year? maybe, maybe not.

    FWIW, I think the Islanders see both Nelson and Strome as Centers. But, circumstances don’t necessarily mean they will play center next year. And, if one does… someone is popping free from the current (based on last year) depth chart.

    Barring injury or trade, I complete agree Cizikas is the guy.

    Woodguy: They are too deep at forward now to have a throw away line (gritty jammy) like they did last year with Cizkas, Martin, McDonald.

    I agree with that… but I’m not sure that means Cizikas is on the wing.

    What if they trade Bailey and do this:

    Tav-Nelson-Okp
    Grab-Kul-Grab
    Niel-Lee-Strome
    Cizikas-Clut-X
    take your pick for X from: Martin-McDonald-Conacher

    I could see that or some such other combo.

  59. nycoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Could definitely see Bailey still on the outs given his contract. As Capuano said though, competition is deep at every forward position for them now (except perhaps having a proven, bona fide 1LW at this point), and that’s a great thing for a coach to have. Oilers are still a ways away from having that in place up front. Getting close to that stage on the blue line.

    Oilers could be a year or two behind the Isles, which sounds about right since they got Tavares before we got Hall. Their top blue line prospects are arriving now: Hamonic already, de Haan this year, Reinhart soon. Oilers: Marincin this year, Klefbom soon, Nurse a bit after that. So still a bit behind in terms of time line.

  60. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Tav-Nelson-Okp
    Grab-Kul-Grab
    Niel-Lee-Strome
    Cizikas-Clut-X

    Nielsen has played the toughs for years.

    The last place Strome should go is on his wing.

    When you have C depth this good you don’t need to run a Cizkas C. Dzone starts, but weaker comp.

    You can run more of CHI set of lines with the 4th getting toughs and Dzone.

    You’re taking a fine set of forwards and creating a bad 4th line which doesn’t really compete against anyone.

    They can be better than that.

  61. bendelson says:

    Woodguy: I think the drop is Anisimov and I think its Perron going for him…..if it happens.

    Let’s assume this does happen.
    Which camp are you in WG?

    1) The “MacT had to get a real 2C and he did. Perron was a big price to pay, but it is a positive move forward nevertheless” camp.

    or

    2) The “MacT messed up. Perron is great and not replaceable in the Oilers line-up. Anisimov amounts to a weak return for the feisty winger” camp.

    I understand camp #2′s concerns but find myself leaning towards camp #1.

    Is straight up reasonable?
    Maybe the Oilers get a CLB draft pick included in the deal?

  62. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:

    Subban 2nd comp/ 1st team 2.70 EVGA/60
    Gorges 1st comp / 4th team 1.79 EVGA/60
    Yemelin 1st comp / 1st team 2.06 Evga/60

    Price 2.32GAA

    They trade one oft he best box D and sign an erratic box protection dman who was just as brutal in the playoffs to a 9M per season contract.

    Chicken or Egg!

  63. Frank The Dog says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Purcell mentioned in an Oilers vid (I’ll try and dig it up). that he liked passing (he I think giggled about who he was passing to), but mentioned that it’s part of his game that he needed to round out because he often thought after-the-fact that maybe he gave up shots.

    I think he said it was something he was going to try more here (shooting).

    Check the Edmonton Journal, it may still be there.

  64. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Well, whatever value PK Subban has, he just lost it by signing a $9m deal. There’s no way he covers, never mind delivers more than, his cap hit.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure in a league of 29 other teams desperate to win the cup, he’d get paid that much if not more in free agency, but that doesn’t make him worth it.

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Nielsen has played the toughs for years.
    The last place Strome should go is on his wing.

    And Bailey has played there for the past two years.

    (and, he’s been fine. Even outpacing him in the WOWYs

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1035&withagainst=true&season=2012-14&sit=5v5

    but, that’s another story)

    Bailey is not considered by anyone as a crack, shut down, defensive ace winger. Yet, there he is.

    The Islanders’ actual record of usage suggests they might view things differently than we might.

    Besides, In this scenario, Tavs plays the toughs; Cizikas gets the deep zone work and Nielson gets the mid-range work-load.

    Moreover, the precense of Grabo and Kulimen give them a chance to try and unlock Nielson’s scoring potential, which has some promise:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=20&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f5=NYI&f7=50-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67+17+18+19+20

    At any rate, as I said way above:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Tav
    Nielson
    Grabbo
    Cizikas
    Nielson and Grabo could be inverted really.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: When you have C depth this good you don’t need to run a Cizkas C. Dzone starts, but weaker comp.
    You can run more of CHI set of lines with the 4th getting toughs and Dzone.
    You’re taking a fine set of forwards and creating a bad 4th line which doesn’t really compete against anyone.
    They can be better than that.

    Sure.

    But, we’re going to have to actually see them do this, or hear them say this. Until otherwise informed prudence suggests same coach, same GM, roughly same roster shakes out to roughly same usage.

    Someone, whether it be via injury, trade, stepping up in TC, whatever, has to upset the apple cart to shake the “status quo” out of reasonable projection options.

  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Well, whatever value PK Subban has, he just lost it by signing a $9m deal.There’s no way he covers, never mind delivers more, than his cap hit.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure in a league of 29 other teams desperate to win the cup, he’d get paid that much if not more in free agency, but that doesn’t make him worth it.

    This is crazy.

    He’s worth much more than that.

    One thing we should come to terms with is this: legit stars are UNDERPAID. it’s the mid-range guys that are OVERPAID

  68. godot10 says:

    So the standard for #1 D for UFA years is now $9 million dollars per year. It seemed pretty clear that the go to agent for top D in Meehan was looking for that number.

    It is difficult to argue that the price for a #3 D entering their prime is less than $6 million.

    MacT made a colossal mistake NOT offering Petry 4 x $5.25. At Petry’s age, he would be eminently tradeable at that price point.

    Petry is looking at 4 x $6 next summer. Maybe 7 x $6 million considering his age.

  69. bendelson says:

    godot10:
    So the standard for #1 D for UFA years is now $9 million dollars per year.It seemed pretty clear that the go to agent for top D in Meehan was looking for that number.

    It is difficult to argue that the price for a #3 D entering their prime is less than $6 million.

    MacT made a colossal mistake NOT offering Petry 4 x $5.25. At Petry’s age, he would be eminently tradeable at that price point.

    Petry is looking at 4 x $6 next summer.Maybe 7 x $6 million considering his age.

    You keep beating this drum Godot…
    But is anybody really disagreeing with you?

  70. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: Brilliant move giving him a bridge deal instead of locking him up long term at $6-$7MM.

    They sure used those two years of cheap PK wisely.

    Bergevin was a new GM coming to a new team. There was nothing wrong with a bridge deal as a de-risking move to become familiar with the player.

    The bonehead move would have been not to pay up now. Subban proved he’s worth the term and the money. $9 million with Price locked up already at a reasonable cost for a considerable period of time will prove to be a really good price point for money. In the last 4 years of the ocntract, it should be really good value for money.

    MacT not signing Petry was a bonehead move.

  71. nycoil says:

    godot10,

    Have we seen a breakdown of the salary by year yet? I think this implies the UFA years are more than $9M per because he still had RFA time left. Subban’s camp submitted $8.5M arb request for this coming RFA season, no? So the RFA years x 2 are at $8M~$.8.5M or so and then the 6 UFA years are $9M+?

  72. godot10 says:

    bendelson: You keep beating this drum Godot…
    But is anybody really disagreeing with you?

    Very few people were arguing that Petry fully deserved 4 x $5 something. Most were criticizing the notion that Petry deserved that much.

  73. godot10 says:

    nycoil:
    godot10,

    Have we seen a breakdown of the salary by year yet? I think this implies the UFA years are more than $9M per because he still had RFA time left. Subban’s camp submitted $8.5M arb request for this coming RFA season, no? So the RFA years x 2 are at $8M~$.8.5M or so and then the 6 UFA years are $9M+?

    Weber and Keith are already well over $10 million in their peak career years. Chicago and Philadelphia/Nashville were able to get cheap end of career years to bring the AAV down.

  74. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is crazy.

    He’s worth much more than that.

    One thing we should come to terms with is this: legit stars are UNDERPAID. it’s the mid-range guys that are OVERPAID

    Only in the screwed-up economics of a league with 30 teams and one Cup to win.

    This is the only way a Subban, Kane, or Toews gets paid almost 4x more than the average teammate. They don’t deliver 4x more value.

  75. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: Bergevin was a new GM coming to a new team.There was nothing wrong with a bridge deal as a de-risking move to become familiar with the player.

    That’s an absurd POV.

    Being a new GM doesn’t excuse poor decision making. Besides, it was never justified in those terms.

  76. justDOit says:

    nycoil,

    capgeek shows it at $9M per, every year, but that might just be an estimate until the details come down.

    Edit:

    Renaud Lavoie @renlavoietva
    Follow
    PK Subban contract breakdown: 2014-15 $7M, 15-16 $7M, 16-17 $11M, 17-18 $11M, 18-19 $10M , 19-20 $10M, 20-21 $8M, 21-22 $8M. #tvasports

  77. nycoil says:

    justDOit,

    Thanks. Yeah, I think that’s probably the case

    godot10,

    Not sure what you are pointing out to me with the Weber and Keith comments. I was responding to this quote from you:

    So the standard for #1 D for UFA years is now $9 million dollars per year.

    And saying I’m not sure yet but perhaps Subban’s UFA years are actually higher than that?

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Marcus Oilerius: Only in the screwed-up economics of a league with 30 teams and one Cup to win.

    This is the only way a Subban, Kane, or Toews gets paid almost 4x more than the average teammate.They don’t deliver 4x more value.

    The screwed up economics is right. Your interpretation of it is wrong.

    The value of Subban to a team in terms of what he brings to the table on the ice and how rare a commodity he actually is far out strips the value and replaceability of average mid-roster players.

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/companies-and-industries/are-the-nhls-best-players-underpaid/

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/2014/02/the-nhls-new-salary-structure-and-paying-stars/

  79. justDOit says:

    Marcus Oilerius:

    They don’t deliver 4x more value.

    But you could say that impact players are maybe 10x more difficult to acquire than Grabovskis and Gagners.

    Edit: I see Rom beat me to it.

  80. godot10 says:

    nycoil:
    justDOit,

    Not sure what you are pointing out to me with the Weber and Keith comments. I was responding to this quote from you:

    So the standard for #1 D for UFA years is now $9 million dollars per year.

    And saying I’m not sure yet but perhaps Subban’s UFA years are actually higher than that?

    The standard for a top D was somewhat unclear because of end-of-career years on Weber and Keith’s deals,

    Subban’s contract is the first D contract which unambiguous sets $9 million and up benchmark for top D.

    Elite players (Kane and Toews). $10 million plus.

    Quality 1st line forwards (Perry, Getzlaf, Kessel) $8 million

  81. bendelson says:

    godot10: Very few people were arguing that Petry fully deserved 4 x $5 something. Most were criticizing the notion that Petry deserved that much.

    The people arguing against that long-term Petry contract went awfully silent once the one year 3M ‘deal’ was signed didn’t they?

    Not a smart move by MacT and I don’t see anybody debating it.

  82. nycoil says:

    It goes back to MacT /Howson saying something along the lines of “We can’t have a whole bunch of $4M defensemen.”

    The Oilers seem to be going down that route at the moment, as opposed to the model that has elite players getting paid elite money and everyone else getting paid less.

    At one extreme you have Pittsburgh: Letang, Crosby, Malkin, Fleury with big salaries and then a lot of fillers in between for cheap as they are up against the cap. Along those same lines you have the likes of Chicago, Anaheim, etc. LA has magically avoided this problem until perhaps Kopitar’s signing.

    Edmonton did great to lock Hall and RNH up long-term when they did (and Eberle to a lesser degree). But it remains to be seen how then the model of overpaying for middle-of-the-pack players to fill in the roster will play out.

    It’s going to be fun to re-assess in three, four years.

  83. Woodguy says:

    bendelson: Let’s assume this does happen.
    Which camp are you in WG?

    1) The “MacT had to get a real 2C and he did.Perron was a big price to pay, but it is a positive move forward nevertheless” camp.

    or

    2) The “MacT messed up.Perron is great and not replaceable in the Oilers line-up.Anisimov amounts to a weak return for the feisty winger” camp.

    I understand camp #2′s concerns but find myself leaning towards camp #1.

    Is straight up reasonable?
    Maybe the Oilers get a CLB draft pick included in the deal?

    It’s really close.

    Oilers need a 2C quite badly and I really like Perron.

    If I knew more about Poo and Ted I might be more comfortable, but neither have ever scored like Perron.

  84. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    So the standard for #1 D for UFA years is now $9 million dollars per year.It seemed pretty clear that the go to agent for top D in Meehan was looking for that number.

    It is difficult to argue that the price for a #3 D entering their prime is less than $6 million.

    MacT made a colossal mistake NOT offering Petry 4 x $5.25. At Petry’s age, he would be eminently tradeable at that price point.

    Petry is looking at 4 x $6 next summer.Maybe 7 x $6 million considering his age.

    MSM outside of Edmonton are already calling Petry “next year’s Niskanen”

    He might be the best UFA Dman next year.

    And he’s right handed to boot.

    You’re spot on here.

    I think MacT looks at Fayne, Petry and Jultz and *knows* he can’t pay all 3, so he’ll re-evaluate which two to keep during the year.

  85. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,

    I think the drop is Anisimov and I think its Perron going for him…..if it happens.

    That would be a good trade for the oilers. They could always put Yakupov or Leon on the wing in Perron’s place.

  86. Zangetsu says:

    gd,

    I guess if “slightly smaller” is 78% or 55lbs. Really he is 10lbs smaller than gagner, and far as I can tell less physical. I don’t really see any similarities to penner, but I do expect purcell to be an effective player.

  87. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:

    I think MacT looks at Fayne, Petry and Jultz and *knows* he can’t pay all 3, so he’ll re-evaluate which two to keep during the year.

    He could have had all three locked for 4 years for $3.625 + $4.25 + $5.25 for $13.2 million, which would have been really good value for money. And all three contracts would have been tradeable.

    Lowe and MacT are doing exactly what they did post SC final, overpaying bottom six pluggers and bottom pairing defensemen.

    Meet the new Moreau’s and Staios.

    Hendricks $1.8 million. Ference $3.25 million. Nikitin $4.5 million. Gordon (if he plays 4th line) $3 million. Pouliot and Purcell, both over $3.5,

    And they don’t have the courage to offer Petry a fair contract for a 2nd pairing D.

  88. supernova says:

    Woodguy: MSM outside of Edmonton are already calling Petry “next year’s Niskanen”

    He might be the best UFA Dman next year.

    And he’s right handed to boot.

    You’re spot on here.

    I think MacT looks at Fayne, Petry and Jultz and *knows* he can’t pay all 3, so he’ll re-evaluate which two to keep during the year.

    godot10,

    Woodguy,

    How does Petry get anything north of $5, don’t get me wrong I actually really like Petry but i dont see the case for it.

    lots of guys get in the 4 to 5 range by being Top 4 blueliner or are strong in one area. To get in the $6 range you have to have something above par. What does Petry have?

    Seriously what idiot GM pays $6 over 5 for Petry?

    Petry’s issue is he doesnt stand out. Will he get $5 ? I can see that.

    People say 2 of the worst D deals out there are Wideman and Orpik, they both had a significant skill set in one area that lead them to those contracts.

    Unless Petry gets 40 + points I cant see it, he is next years Stralman type contract.

  89. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is crazy.

    He’s worth much more than that.

    One thing we should come to terms with is this: legit stars are UNDERPAID. it’s the mid-range guys that are OVERPAID

    I like the shift to Paying the gate attractions in the NHL. I have been to a couple games in Montreal and PK is the biggest Star by far on the team, huge fan favorite.

    Montreal must make huge money of PK products.

    I believe Oilers model will shift over the next few years but they have time after all Hall, RNH and Ebs, are locked up for awhile at decent to good value.

    they can afford and need to afford to pay support players good money right now until out of the sewage.

  90. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Zangetsu:
    gd,

    I guess if “slightly smaller” is 78% or 55lbs. Really he is 10lbs smaller than gagner, and far as I can tell less physical. I don’t really see any similarities to penner, but I do expect purcell to be an effective player.

    Purcell is an extremely good comp for Penner.

    Penner:

    Assets: Is one of the biggest physical specimens in the game, but also possesses good hockey sense. Plays his best while standing in front of the net. Can score goals in bunches.
    Flaws: Could stand to use his size more in every game situation. Does not display enough game-to-game consistency. Gets in trouble when he stops moving his feet.
    Career Potential: Inconsistent but huge scoring winger.

    http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/hockeynews/hockey/player.php?4412

    Purcell:

    Assets: Has a very solid frame and loads of offensive ability. Can score goals or set up linemates, and is equally adept at playing on either side of center. His hockey sense is quite good.
    Flaws: Lacks game-to-game consistency at the National Hockey League level. Is not a great defensive winger and doesn’t use his 6-2, 201-pound frame enough to his advantage.
    Career Potential: Solid scoring winger.

    http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/hockeynews/hockey/player.php?6065

    ——–
    They are both big (though one, sure, is monster sized), unphysical, scoring, puck possession wingers.

    Penner is bigger and Purcell is faster. But, we’re talking about relatively minor attributes here. The style of play and basic hockey card description is very similar (even the career path is somewhat similar. neither were drafted)

    “A faster, smaller, but still big Penner” is a perfect thumbnail description of Purcell IMO.

  91. supernova says:

    godot10: He could have had all three locked for 4 years for $3.625 + $4.25 + $5.25 for $13.2 million, which would have been really good value for money.And all three contracts would have been tradeable.

    Lowe and MacT are doing exactly what they did post SC final, overpaying bottom six pluggers and bottom pairing defensemen.

    Meet the new Moreau’s and Staios.

    Hendricks $1.8 million.Ference $3.25 million.Nikitin $4.5 million.Gordon (if he plays 4th line) $3 million. Pouliot and Purcell, both over $3.5,

    And they don’t have the courage to offer Petry a fair contract for a 2nd pairing D.

    godot10,

    How else do the Oil get out of the sewer?

    Lets face it this is the time they need to pay support players because they have to improve. They basically were a 5 competent forward team last year.

    5 out of 12 isnt good. Until they can move to 10 or 11 out of 12 forwards being good they can & need to pay more than other teams.

    IMO Ference is the worst deal on the team, they fell in love with the guy and not the player but he isn’t on such a bad deal that Katz wont bury it or eat it if they need to.

  92. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I made this analogy earlier. Trying to set my own expactations as well.

    I liked Penner but always wanted more, felt like he could do it.

    Expecting to Like not love Purcell, trying to find the things he will do well.

    Crazy thing is they have an uncanny similar type of career path to the NHL.

  93. Zangetsu says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    If we are talking penner as an oiler, we are talking about almost 3x the goal scorer. Sure both are possession wingers, but one is big, and the other is tall. One is a sniper who had decent passing skills, and the other is a great playmaker.

    http://www.extraskater.com/players/dashboard?players=101,514 I recognize that in many seasons, the two players have similar advanced stats, but consistency issues and possession are all they have in common. ES doesn’t do a good job with the split season and doesn’t have penner’s 30 goal seasons.

    Quick question. Who is bigger a 5’11 205lb player or a 6’1 195 lb player? One is significantly denser, and by my estimates would be harder to push off the puck. I think height is often valued more than weight in Edmonton.

  94. godot10 says:

    supernova: godot10,

    Woodguy,

    How does Petry get anything north of $5, don’t get me wrong I actually really like Petry but i dont see the case for it.

    lots of guys get in the 4 to 5 range by being Top 4 blueliner or are strong in one area. To get in the $6 range you have to have something above par. What does Petry have?

    Seriously what idiot GM pays $6 over 5 for Petry?

    Petry’s issue is he doesnt stand out. Will he get $5 ? I can see that.

    People say 2 of the worst D deals out there are Wideman and Orpik, they both had a significant skill set in one area that lead them to those contracts.

    Unless Petry gets 40 + points I cant see it, he is next years Stralman type contract.

    Comparables:

    Jake Gardiner: 4RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million = 5 x $4 (his contract)
    Victor Hedman 4RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million = 5 x $4 (his contract)
    Dmitri Kulikov: 2RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million = 3 x $4.33 (his contract)

    Kevin Shattenkirk 4RFA x $4.25 (his contract)

    Nikitin #4-#5 D 2UFA years x $4.5 million

    Matt Niskanen 7UFA x $5.75
    Dan Girard 6UFA x $5.5
    Ryan McDonagh 4RFA x $3.75 + 2UFA x $6.6 million = 6 x $4.7
    Justin Faulk 4RFA x $3.75 + 2UFA x $7 million = 6 x $4.83
    Zac Bogosian 2RFA x $3.5 +5UFA x $5.8 million = 7 x $5.14

    ================

    i.e. RFA years go for $3.5 million on the low end to $4.25 on the high end.
    i.e. UFA years go for $5.5 million on the low end to $7 on the high end.

    Jeff Petry (low end numbers) 1RFA x $3.5 + 3UFA x $5.5 = 4 x $5

    That is the worst contract he would contemplate signing with duration. 4 x $5.25 might have gotten it done.

    MacT’s bonehead move of the summer. Hiring Eakins and trading Horcoff were last year boneheads. Not signing Petry is this years.

    Petry at 4 x $5.25 would have been a tradeable contract. There was little risk offering it.

    Not getting Schultz done to 5 x $4-$4.25 will be similarly boneheaded. (4RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million, i.e. Jake Gardiner comp).

  95. Lowetide says:

    I’ve been crazy busy all day, sorry for not being part of a very interesting thread!

    NYC Oil: Yes! I did read the maple walnut! They didn’t sign Teemu to a 2-way deal, but gave it to Joensuu.

    WG and Rom: GREAT stuff, I haven’t had a chance to read everything, but love the passion.

  96. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    Woodguy:

    Subban 2nd comp/ 1st team2.70 EVGA/60
    Gorges 1st comp / 4th team 1.79 EVGA/60
    Yemelin 1st comp / 1st team 2.06 Evga/60

    Price 2.32GAA

    They trade one oft he best box D and sign an erratic box protection dman who was just as brutal in the playoffs to a 9M per season contract.

    Chicken or Egg!

    PK Subban
    13-14 2.70 (2nd comp)
    12-13 1.66 (3rd comp)
    11-12 2.24 (1st comp)

    Josh Gorges
    13-14 1.79 (1st comp)
    12-13 1.78 (1st comp)
    11-12 2.20 (1st comp)

    Alexi Emelin
    13-14 2.06 (1st comp)
    12-13 2.38 (2nd comp)
    11-12 3.30 (2nd/3rd comp)

    A very variable stat. No disagreement that Gorges is extremely solid, but using last season’s career worst GA/60 against PK doesn’t seem completely fair.

  97. nycoil says:

    godot10,

    Now that the breakdown of PK’s contract has been released, we can safely say the standard for #1D UFA years is closer to $10M, not $9M. That’s what I was trying to get at, but we seemed to be going in circles.

    RFA 1 2014-15 $7M, RFA 2 15-16 $7M, UFA 1 16-17 $11M, UFA 2 17-18 $11M, UFA 3 18-19 $10M , UFA 4 19-20 $10M, UFA 5 20-21 $8M, UFA 6 21-22 $8M.

    The last two UFA years being when he is 32, 33.

  98. jp says:

    Woodguy: It’s really close.

    Oilers need a 2C quite badly and I really like Perron.

    If I knew more about Poo and Ted I might be more comfortable, but neither have ever scored like Perron.

    Do you mean goal scoring specifically?

    Perron’s career highs are 28 goals, 57 points (this year)
    Purcell’s are 24 goals, 65 points (in 11-12)

    Not a big difference, at least in peak performance.

  99. supernova says:

    godot10: Comparables:

    Jake Gardiner: 4RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million = 5 x $4 (his contract)
    Victor Hedman 4RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million = 5 x $4 (his contract)
    Dmitri Kulikov: 2RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million = 3 x $4.33 (his contract)

    Kevin Shattenkirk 4RFA x $4.25 (his contract)

    Nikitin #4-#5 D 2UFA years x $4.5 million

    Matt Niskanen 7UFA x $5.75
    Dan Girard 6UFA x $5.5
    Ryan McDonagh 4RFA x $3.75 + 2UFA x $6.6 million = 6 x $4.7
    Justin Faulk 4RFA x $3.75 + 2UFA x $7 million = 6 x$4.83
    Zac Bogosian 2RFA x $3.5 +5UFA x $5.8 million = 7 x $5.14

    ================

    i.e. RFA years go for $3.5 million on the low end to $4.25 on the high end.
    i.e. UFA years go for $5.5 million on the low end to $7 on the high end.

    Jeff Petry (low end numbers) 1RFA x $3.5 + 3UFA x $5.5 = 4 x $5

    That is the worst contract he would contemplate signing with duration.4 x $5.25 might have gotten it done.

    MacT’s bonehead move of the summer.Hiring Eakins and trading Horcoff were last year boneheads.Not signing Petry is this years.

    Petry at 4 x $5.25 would have been a tradeable contract.There was little risk offering it.

    Not getting Schultz done to 5 x $4-$4.25 will be similarly boneheaded. (4RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million, i.e. Jake Gardiner comp).

    godot10,

    nice job putting that together!

    Do you sincerely believe any of those guys would get the UFA money that is in the UFA/RFA deal for 6 years.

    The problem is we need to look simply at UFA only deals. We also need to compare deals signed in the new CBA.

    Niskanen only got his contract because of a large points season in a final year of contract. What has Petry done to earn a similar deal.

    If MacT had signed him for the say 3 years at 5.5 with never getting over 25 points he would be crucified.

    Only 2 D signed a contract for over $5 million a year this year, both are very questionable deals yet both have reached higher hieghts than anything Petry has accomplished.

    With Kane, Toews, and Subban deals we are sitting the movement to pay the players that TV and Fans pay to come see. As more and more of these deals happen, the mid-level will get squeezed.

    Teams will then either go the Taylor Hall contract route or the bridge-after-bridge route.

    Players are willing to take less in RFA years mainly because they want to get paid NOW! and cover for injury, and the possibility they never hit the great heights.

    Do I agree that he should have been signed longer than 1 year? Absolutely yes.

    Horcoff was tired from being in edmonton and being the fall guy, he wanted the change as most fans did as well. I wasn’t one of those fans ( you can look back on this blog and others and see me defend keeping Horcoff)

    The problem is when a player has given his all to a market and that market has chewed him up and spit him out, sometimes the GM has no choice but to move the player on. for the most part Horcoff’s tough minutes were taken over by Gordon but his puck retrieval on the PP was never replaced.

    sometimes parting is what is best for both parties, similar to Gagner.

    Eakins being hired was bizarre to me, but that is Kreuger’s error as much as MacT’s.

    Wouldnt you want to be involved and interview the person who is going to be your running mate?

    It is very easy to criticize in a Vaccuum, but the fact remains MacT’s job is to handle all the assets.

    What if a year deal on Petry allows MacT to do a deal that gets a established Center? or a great 3 for 1?

    are you not also blasting MacT and Lowe for spending high money on mid-level players? what has Petry done to ever be considered anything more than a 3D? and he might only be a 4D?

    that’s sort of the equal to paying to much for 3rd line help, isn’t it?

  100. godot10 says:

    supernova: godot10,

    Only 2 D signed a contract for over $5 million a year this year, both are very questionable deals yet both have reached higher hieghts than anything Petry has accomplished.

    Subban signed for $9. Phaneuf for $7. Markov, Niskanen, Girardi, and Orpik all at or over $5.5

    6 >> 2

  101. supernova says:

    godot10: Subban signed for $9.Phaneuffor $7.Markov, Niskanen, Girardi, and Orpik all at or over $5.5

    6 >> 2

    godot10,

    sure I was meaning in the offseason and obviously PK just re-upped.

    What one of those D has less cache in the league then Petry?

    you didnt address anything else I wrote.

    criticize MacT for signing Depth Players for too much and then criticize him for not going for a $5 million over 4 years on petry.

    Please make some sense of this.

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