RE 14-15 JUSTIN SCHULTZ: HELP ME

Justin Schultz helps create offense at both ends of the ice. The Oilers have employed chaos defensemen since time began, but Schultz comes with special instructions. Because he chose the Oilers, and didn’t fall on Roloson, the organization seems to hold him in incredibly high esteem. Until very recently their verbal ran wildly out of time with the actuality.

JUSTIN SCHULTZ 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.96 (2nd among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.06 (1st among regular D)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughes faced among regular D (2nd pairing)
  • Qual Team: best available teammates among regular D (1st pairing)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 43.5
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -1.6
  • Corsi Rel: -1.2 (4th best among regular D) (-12.19 CorsiON)
  • Zone Start: 48.1% (2nd easiest among regular D)
  • Zone Finish: 49.5% (3rd best among regular D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 85/9.41% (best among D’s>30 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48, 8-19-27

JUSTIN SCHULTZ 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.88 (1st among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.31 (2nd among regular D)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest faced among regular D (2nd pairing)
  • Qual Team: 3rd best available teammates among regular D (1st pairing)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 42.9
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -2.6
  • Zone Start: 46.5% (3rd easiest among regular D)
  • Zone Finish: 46.8% (3rd best among regular D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 109/10.1% (best among D’s>50 shots)
  • Boxcars: 74, 11-22-33

RE 13-14 REVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.513 JUSTIN SCHULTZ RE 13-14 80 13 28 41
.446 JUSTIN SCHULTZ ACTUAL 13-14 74 11 22 33

RE 14-15 PREVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.500 JUSTIN SCHULTZ RE 14-15 78 12 27 39
 

 

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER (CORSI REL)

vollman sledge blue 13-14

 

  1. Why did his offense go away? Strictly power play, he was basically the same at even strength.
  2. What’s the problem with Schultz? He has some major holes. He was unable to wake the power play, and he was a mess for most of the year as a defenseman. Given secondary competition and a zone start push (at least as much as the Oilers could push) he was still below average in the shot differential.
  3. What’s the problem with Schultz? This is two seasons now of simply horrible shot differential. In layman’s terms, he’s giving up far more than he’s delivering, and the team is drowning with him on the ice.
  4. Crazy days, and he’s such a good passer! Well, actually he’s not a terribly good one at hitting people tape-to-tape on the fly. That’s part of the problem. He has an offensive defender’s skills, but some (speed, darting into a play late) are miles ahead of others (tape-to-tape, recognizing the best available outlet).
  5. Did he play well with any partners? According to the WOWY he posted 49% with Anton Belov, 44.3% with Klefbom.
  6. Where do we go from here? I think they might partner him with Fayne.
  7. FAYNE? Well, it makes sense stylistically. Fayne is more of a stay-at-home type, and Schultz can wheel.
  8. They’re both right-handed, you dink! So? Fayne is a solid defenseman and can play the position. A year with him and maybe Schultz will be wearing his ass for a hat less often.
  9. Anyone aside from Fayne? He played well with Marincin in OKC, but that was an NHL line so it isn’t certain. I’ve always felt Klefbom would eventually be that guy, Edmonton loves them some treble Klef and they love Schultz too.
  10. Nurse? No. Not yet, and I suspect not for some time. Nurse will pass Schultz as an all-around player in his first season or two, but covering for chaos takes an experienced player. Especially on defense.
  11. Is Schultz worth all this? Playmakers have exceptional value, and if Schultz can improve defensively then he’ll be a big part of this team’s success.
  12. You liked him after his rookie year. Schultz made so many bad reads this season, I seriously wonder about his ability to play the position well enough to avoid being a liability—even after 300 games. I understand part of that comes with playing SO MUCH defense—Oilers blue had multiple defensive sorties most shifts—but he got himself into a lot of trouble with his decision making.
  13. What changed from a year ago? Last season, he was a power-play wizard. This season, not so much. That impacts value. Secondly, and as much as I’d like to blame Ference and Nick  Schultz for this, he seemed unable to make decisions at pace. I can’t count high enough to properly describe the number of times he made a poor pass, lost the puck off his stick in the defensive zone, provided genuinely feeble coverage and appeared to be lollygagging with the puck.
  14. That’s his style! Then he needs to change it. If he wants to be the Jesus of Cool he’ll have to do it in his off hours.
  15. So, more urgency. Yes. Sometimes a quick, simple pass to your partner is the better plan. Gives you room to breathe and then make a better pass later in the transaction.
  16. What does MacT see, then? A difference maker, a playmaker and a guy who can play with elite skill. That has exceptional value, but for a defenseman there’s that whole other side of the game. Schultz appears to be indifferent to it—he plays like the guy fans accuse Jeff Petry of playing.
  17. Who will he eventually be paired with? Darnell Nurse.
  18. When will we see that pairing for the first time? If they didn’t play together last pre-season, and I don’t recall, they’ll get some time this fall.
  19. When will we see them in an NHL regular season game together? Stay tuned, it could happen this year.
  20. When will they be a difference-making tandem? When Nurse can take control of events, probably three full years from now. Until then, it’ll be chaos unless Schultz gets better at making plays and defending sorties.
  21. Why this song? It’s a hit single, Schultz is a hit single. Plus the beginning is so much fun, and then it dives into this brilliant bit of (Schultz) verbal: “When I get that crazy feeling, I know, I’m in trouble again, I’m in trouble, ‘Cause you’re a rambler and a gambler.”
  22. Joni Mitchell sure understands the hockey. She’s good at knowing.

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35 Responses to "RE 14-15 JUSTIN SCHULTZ: HELP ME"

  1. Younger Oil says:

    Is #21 supposed to say Schultz instead of Petry? Good projection though!

  2. jake70 says:

    Does the Timmonen health situation in Philly trigger some more talk with the Oil and perhaps affect Schultz?

  3. Soup Fascist says:

    Lots of talk on Twitter that Del Zotto is the supposed solution to the unfortunate Timmonen situation.

    They can have him.

    Panaccio’s sources in Philly say a 1 year deal for Del Zotto.

  4. justDOit says:

    Chase, Nurse (where’s Gene…) in the lineup at the WJC camp exhibition game.

    Live feed: http://stats.hockeycanada.ca/game/show/7838017?subseason=165586&referrer=1254000

  5. russ99 says:

    Eakins fooped up the power play and gave Schultz ridiculous amounts of ice time.

    I’d like to chalk up last season as an adjustment year, and hopefully this year (with Ramsay in the fold) will be much better.

    It’s pretty obvious he gives us what no other Oiler defenseman since they dealt Visnovsky can do. I hope he also works on his point shot and also changing up things in the o-zone, since goalies seemed to anticipate when he’d try and cork up that lethal snap shot he has.

    Posted this sentiment on the other Oiler blog but I think it bears repeating:

    We have to temper our expectations for Justin both in overall (especially defensive zone) play and what his contract will be once he signs. He came up into the league promised all sorts of things in order to sign here, so his profile, salary and level of expectations are way above his current level of play, especially since he essentially skipped any development time that most defensemen get between the NCAA to the NHL.

  6. justDOit says:

    Hopefully the ‘newly tuned’ Oiler coaches (Rocky and Dellow too), can summon the old AHL Jultz:

    Season Team GP G A PTS +/-
    2012-13 Regular Season OKC 34 18 30 48 8

  7. Zangetsu says:

    A lot of people are discounting Schultz early in my opinion. Defensemen often boom late, and Schultz still has huge upside. He absolutely laid waste to the AHL in a lockout year. Give him some time to learn nhl defence. This takes years for many dmen. Also worth noting was N. Schultz was on the decline when we traded for him. I think he may have drug Shultz through the mud a bit.

  8. jp says:

    39 points, but what’s the RE for his CorsiRel?

  9. justDOit says:

    jp:
    39 points, but what’s the RE for his CorsiRel?

    Calling all Dellows – vacancy in the Oiligosphere!

  10. justDOit says:

    Is there a media blackout in effect on this Dellows hiring? TSN has a small blurb on their website (my comment on the story: Suck it Simmons!), but nothing on Spurtznet or even the Oilers site. Where’s my Tom Garglezola interview with Tyler?

  11. stevezie says:

    justDOit,

    That would explain the Spector retraction.

  12. RexLibris says:

    There’s one question missing, LT, in my opinion.

    If Schultz is Chaos Inc., should the Oilers trade him?

  13. RexLibris says:

    justDOit:
    Is there a media blackout in effect on this Dellows hiring? TSN has a small blurb on their website (my comment on the story: Suck it Simmons!), but nothing on Spurtznet or even the Oilers site. Where’s my Tom Garglezola interview with Tyler?

    I would expect a piece from Scott Cullen on Dellow, if not something in the next few days about both he and Dubas.

    As for Sportsnet…sometimes silence says more.

  14. bendelson says:

    justDOit: Calling all Dellows – vacancy in the Oiligosphere!

    OK justDOit, you don’t have to ask twice…

    If someone would be so kind as to explain to me what a CorsiRel is and what the hell RE stands for, I’d be happy to answer JP’s thoughtful query and be off on my journey to eventual NHL employment.

    (Vacancy filled)

  15. Ryan says:

    justDOit: Calling all Dellows – vacancy in the Oiligosphere!

    Haha… That’s the hardest job in the world…

    This is why I have the utmost respect for LT and the other bloggers in the Oiligosphere.

    I ran an Oilers blog for a year or so that’s long forgotten…. The Aptly named Low On Oil blog lol. If anyone even pretends to remember it, I’ll buy them a case of beer….maybe lol.

    Blogging about the Oilers during these dark days is tough sledding that only a chosen few like Alken can do for so long while maintaining their sanity.

  16. justDOit says:

    bendelson: OK justDOit, you don’t have to ask twice…

    If someone would be so kind as to explain to me what a CorsiRel is and what the hell RE stands for,I’d be happy to answer JP’s thoughtful query and be off on my journey to eventual NHL employment.

    (Vacancy filled)

    Ironic that the best site to teach you that stuff, has created the vacancy.

  17. jp says:

    justDOit: Ironic that the best site to teach you that stuff, has created the vacancy.

    Interesting that his site went offline immediately. I guess it’s a pretty clear window into his thinking that could conceivably be used against his employer at some point…

  18. LadiesloveSmid says:

    People have argued that Gardiner isn’t a good benchmark for Schultz because Schultz’s possession numbers have been weak whereas Gardiner’s been a positive possession player. How much can be credited to line mates and competition? Schultz has played tougher comp n been partnered with Ference and N Schultz in those minutes whereas Gardiner has played mostly with a decent possession player in Franson. Some would point to WOWYs for Gardiner/Franson, but I’d assume Franson was playing tougher comp with Phaneuf/Gunnarsson when he wasn’t on the ice with Gardiner.

    I’m not really a Schultz supporter by any means, but maybe we haven’t been able to truly gage how good he is because he hasn’t had an opportunity with a solid partner. Maybe we’ll see that and some improvement with Marincin/Fayne/Nikitin as potential partners

  19. G Money says:

    I thought for sure when you said

    Why this song? It’s a hit single, Schultz is a hit single

    you were going to say “Why this song? It’s a hit single, Schultz has thrown a single hit

    BAM!

    Zangetsu: Defensemen often boom late

    Though in Schultz’s case, he went boom early and often.

    ZOWIE!

    Ryan: I ran an Oilers blog for a year or so that’s long forgotten…. The Aptly named Low On Oil blog lol.

    If it’s any consolation, I haven’t forgotten.

    Though in fairness to me, that’s because I never actually heard about it in the first place.

    ZING!

    I’m on fire! Stop me before I self-immolate!

  20. godot10 says:

    Schultz was thrown in the deep end without any help (i.e. forced to play toughs and 2nd toughs with 3rd pairing quality help) by the Oilers and he didn’t drown. Year 1, with a rookie coach without an experienced assistant without a training camp and Nick Schultz. Year 2 with a rookie coach, dysfunctional locker room, and a new defensive system that flopped (and an early season injury that lingered).

    I expect he’ll be fine.

  21. flyfish1168 says:

    JMHO. I would really like to know why and how Justin escaped being benched ,healthy scratched or sent town to the minors. Soft on the coverage, easy to go around him in the d-zone, and lost many puck battles where he was 1st on the puck. Yes keep hearing the weak goaltending excuse but every player was effected, Justin wasn’t the only one to suffer this. If he thinks he is worth more than his buddy Jake then I hope the Oilers look elsewhere. JMHO

  22. Frank The Dog says:

    Hey DMW
    I just posted a response to your input on the prior thread.

  23. book¡je says:

    LT – Why do you hate Justin Schultz?

  24. Hammers says:

    Paul Coffey his not but as I remember Paul had a rough go his first 100 games of so . McT better get this contract right or he may both loose Petry and decide Schultz isn’t the guy after his next season . Not convinced he will be the answer unless a coach ( Ramsay) teaches him what to do.

  25. Pouzar says:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=30949

    “In Canada’s first exhibition game at Summer Development Camp, Greg Chase impressed with a pair of assists in Canada’s 6-2 win over the Czech Republic. Chase also had two penalty minutes. The other Oilers prospect at the camp, defenceman Darnell Nurse, had two PIM as well. ”

    I believe Chase was 4th line RW yesterday.

  26. wheatnoil says:

    Hm, was this written by @Sun_Tychkowski or @AntonStrawman? Hard to say. http://t.co/LExiaLpNah— 67Sound (@67sound) August 6, 2014

    http://m.edmontonsun.com/2014/08/06/edmonton-oilers-hire-statistical-blogger-for-hockey-operations

    Wow… between yesterday’s now-retracted Spector article and this one, the local media really have their knives out regarding the Dellow hire.

  27. judgedrude says:


    Zone Finish: 46.8% (3rd best among regular forwards)
    Shots on goal/percentage: 109/10.1% (best among F’s>50 shots)

    I know Jultz is a highly offensive (double meaning not implied) defenseman, but why are you comparing him to the forwards?

  28. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil,

    What a joke. The NHL is light years behind MLB who have been doin this fancy stats thing forever. Ivy league dudes have been showing the Old Boys club the door for a while now.

  29. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: http://m.edmontonsun.com/2014/08/06/edmonton-oilers-hire-statistical-blogger-for-hockey-operations

    Wow… between yesterday’s now-retracted Spector article and this one, the local media really have their knives out regarding the Dellow hire.

    Jeezus H. What the hell is wrong with these guys? DId Dellow double park in the media zones at Rexall last practice?

    There wasn’t this much vitriol aimed at Eakins even after he removed doughnuts from the presser menu.

    This article is almost infantile and doesn’t meet the standards of journalism one ought to expect.

    I don’t mind someone really questioning the hire based on merit or objective critique such as “was Dellow really the best available person to hire if this is the position you were looking to fill”, but that isn’t the case here.

    I’ve read a few times now where journalists are critical of the addition of Dellow because he is antagonistic and has, allegedly (I’m not personally aware of instances), personal attacks during twitter exchanges. Yet, in every article I’ve read on the hiring, with the exception of TSN, the reportage itself was filled with slights and indirect personal insults.

    No mention of his actual work, and in the case of the Tychkowski article, virtually no mention of any of his hockey analysis, nor even of his professional qualification as a lawyer.

    He frames the issue as a zero-sum game where the blogging and advanced stat community are focused entirely on their own narrow interests, the result be damned so long as it provides mathematical proof that eliminates room for opposing opinions.

    This has been more or less the opposite of what has happened. My experience has been that the traditional perspective has essentially pushed down any mention whatsoever of advanced stats and analytics in a narrow-minded attempt to remove any analytically-based objections from the conversation.

    In today’s EJ there is no mention, not even a small sidebar, on the Oilers hiring. To their credit they are focusing intently on the U-20 Women’s World Cup, but in a city where a change in goaltending coaches usually warrants at least 200 words, in this case…crickets.

    I don’t recall the Toronto media being this juvenile when Kyle Dubas was hired.

  30. RexLibris says:

    Flyers add Del Zotto, 1 year $1.3 million. Digging a deeper hole in cap terms. Now $4.3 million over.

  31. Pouzar says:

    Interesting insight from J Willis RE: Tyler Dellow

    “I’ve met Dellow in person, and as anyone who has heard him on the radio would suspect he’s a pretty easy guy to get along with. He’s not going to be banging heads together, but he will be able to make strong arguments with a lot of factual backing, and point to specific places where improvement is needed.”

    “A few years back, Tyler wanted to put together a big project over the summer with essays and articles on all 30 NHL teams. I signed up, and though it never really got off the ground, I did my bit.

    Anyway, before the project got shelved, Tyler edited my work. Tore it to shreds – hammered me where I made poor arguments, pointed out poorly supported ones, etc.

    I’ve had lots of different editors over the years, but nobody has ever given me better feedback. It’s not fun, but having somebody explain to you what you’re doing wrong and why it’s wrong can be incredibly valuable.”

  32. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar:
    Interesting insight from J Willis RE: Tyler Dellow

    “I’ve met Dellow in person, and as anyone who has heard him on the radio would suspect he’s a pretty easy guy to get along with. He’s not going to be banging heads together, but he will be able to make strong arguments with a lot of factual backing, and point to specific places where improvement is needed.”

    “A few years back, Tyler wanted to put together a big project over the summer with essays and articles on all 30 NHL teams. I signed up, and though it never really got off the ground, I did my bit.

    Anyway, before the project got shelved, Tyler edited my work. Tore it to shreds – hammered me where I made poor arguments, pointed out poorly supported ones, etc.

    I’ve had lots of different editors over the years, but nobody has ever given me better feedback. It’s not fun, but having somebody explain to you what you’re doing wrong and why it’s wrong can be incredibly valuable.”

    I guess that’s it.

    WG gets into some interesting throwdowns here in the comments section over the value of some stats and the role that analytics plays, and he often backs up his arguments well, even if it comes at the cost of the other person’s feelings. Yet when he is wrong he calls himself on it and owns up.

    In Dellow’s case it seems to me like he just doesn’t tolerate BS. There is often an element of absolutism in people who display that trait, things are black or white and nothing in between. But in Dellow’s case I think he is just exceptionally married to logical conclusions based on evidence. Reviewing the evidence and using basic logical objectives ought to provide approximately the same result, differences can be discussed over how to weight the evidence, but to deny its existence or importance is likely intolerable.

  33. theres oil in virginia says:

    RexLibris: This article is almost infantile and doesn’t meet the standards of journalism one ought to expect.

    Respectfully (to you), this is exactly what one ought to expect.

  34. RexLibris says:

    theres oil in virginia: Respectfully (to you), this is exactly what one ought to expect.

    I suppose, but I do try and give everyone the benefit of the doubt.

    I didn’t allow myself to editorialize on the journalistic validity of the Edmonton Sun as a news source, so that’s good, right?

  35. Hockey News: Tyler Dellow to the Oilers; Ekblad Concussion says:

    […] What does the future hold for Justin Schultz? [Lowe Tide] […]

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