RE 14-15 VIKTOR FASTH: FOR FREE

We talked about Viktor Fasth three years before MacT pulled the trigger, and now he’s an Edmonton Oiler. Starter? Yes. Backup? Yes. Yes he is. Did Edmonton pay too much for him, or did they grab a useful player from a team overloaded at the position for just picks.

RE 13-14 REVIEW

NAME GP GAA SP
VIKTOR FASTH OILERS 13-14 7 2.73 .914

RE 14-15 PREVIEW

NAME E GP E SOG E SP GA GAA
VIKTOR FASTH 14-15 RE 36 31 .913 97 2.69
  1. Is Fasth a good goalie? He has some nice things on his resume but is not a proven NHL player. He played well for the Oilers upon arrival. He’s signed for one more season, at $2.9 million which is perhaps a little dear but not insane.
  2. Is he talented enough to win the job away from Scrivens? Yes. I think so. It’s important to remember he was battling injury a year ago. The rest of his NHL hockey card is solid, if unproven.
  3. Which goalie do you like more? I’m convinced on Scrivens, and like Fasth just a hair less. I think that’s reflected in the estimated GP, which is pretty close to even for Scrivens and Fasth.
  4. Who will we be talking about next spring? I pray baby Jesus it’s Scrivens and Fasth.
  5. Meaning they will have played well. Yes.
  6. How would you describe Fasth’s style. Puck stop guy. Butterfly, but a bybrid. He follows the puck like a hawk. A bloody mirror, he is.
  7. Goalie descriptions haven’t progressed over the years. Well, they don’t say ‘goaler’ anymore but it’s kind of a mystery.
  8. Like the depths of the ocean? More like a Ouija board.
  9. What was the injury? Lower body during pre-game warmup in maybe November. I don’t know what it was, ‘muscle inflammation’ was mentioned.
  10. You like the bet? Sure. I don’t know that there’s any real way to say which of these goalies will end up number one, but my sense is that Fasth may not have been completely right, despite playing well as an Oiler. It’ll be fun to see him in the fall.
  11. Oilers paid a lot. Well they gave up a fifth-round pick in 2014 (Matthew Berkovitz) and a third-round pick in 2015.
  12. That could be the 61st pick? If it is, we’ll be talking about a lot more than two new goalies.
  13. Can we get to your RE estimation for goals? Sure, as you’ll recall we had 226 goals for in the 2014-15 season.
  14. Now where are we? Scrivens total is 113, Bachman’s is 6 and now we have 97 for Mr. Fasth. That’s 216.
  15. The Oilers are +10 GF-GA!!!!! No.
  16. Empty net goals? Yes. Eakins’ Oilers let in 10 this past season, but they were out of the game many times by third period late. So, I’m going to estimate a slight increase, and suggest we post 12 EN goals. That was the highest total one year ago.
  17. So, it’s 226-228 for the Oilers? Yes.
  18. That’s a tremendous improvement. Well, the Oilers have some things going for them compared to last season. The looks allowed by the swarm were absolutely deadly, coverage should be better. It’s a more veteran crew on defense and on the wings, that’s a positive. The goaltending tandem is better, with two potential No. 1′s in Edmonton from the start. Eakins is a smart guy who learned a lot, and they hired Craig Ramsay who is probably the best candidate for what need’s fixing here in the entire NHL.
  19. Still, they’re allowing 39 fewer goals. Well, I think improved play on breakouts, et cetera will add up quickly. Edmonton allowed 183 5×5 goals a year ago, the most in the entire league. I think that number will be drastically reduced this summer. Edmonton would have finished 21st in the NHL a year ago if they had allowed 228 goals. The last time Edmonton finished 21st in GA? They were 19th in Ralph’s year. Last time they allowed 270 goals? Pat Quinn’s year. I’m betting this will be a better year.
  20. Will they make the playoffs? We’ll discuss it during the Dallas Eakins RE.
  21. Why this song? It’s one of my favorites from Joni Mitchell. It’s so simple, beautiful melody, and I like her voice here because it’s melancholy. The lyric sounds like it’s a real event in real time. Her gift is she saw it, and turned it into a beautiful song about keeping your feet on the ground and realizing luck and timing have you in a special place, and you should not forget it. JT’s guitar and brief backup singing add to it. It’s a gorgeous song. In this version, she then tells why Neil Young wrote Sugar Mountain, and why she wrote The Circle Game as an answer.

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96 Responses to "RE 14-15 VIKTOR FASTH: FOR FREE"

  1. supernova says:

    They did pay a lot but I think it has to do with him having that extra year on the contract.

    I am totally unsure of Oilers goaltending but having a 1A & 1B type situation is good.

    If we put the top 60 goalies in the league on one list where would the 2 oilers goalies be?

  2. cahill says:

    Thanks for the RE series, this is awesome stuff.

  3. fuzzy muppet says:

    I love the RE series, but I am now in full “game day thread” mode. Lets get it going!

  4. commonfan14 says:

    Mark Lee turfed.

  5. Hammers says:

    Your doing an RE on Eakins but are you also doing McT ? The only extra tool McT hasn’t given him is another proven center even though Lander made a big move at the AHL level , Arco both played & did well at the NHL level and they drafted a top prospect for the “C” position . Could Eakins excuse be that experienced “C” if they miss by a mile ? For me right here today that other “C” or at least 1 of the other 3 hitting a home run is my biggest concern on us making or nearly making the playoffs .

  6. justDOit says:

    Fasth makes $600k more than Scrivens, and is UFA next July. So basically, they’re going to have to try and balance the share of starts, and MacT will have to sell both goalies on being part of a 1A/1B tandem, or else Fasth will be moving at the deadline.

  7. Ducey says:

    270 – 228 does not equal 39. What am I missing (besides 3 GA)?

    And I can’t see the Oilers making up 42 goals on GA. That’s essentially half a goal a game, when we did not see any improvement in the Corgis in the last half of last season.

    They were outshot 6 shots a game last year. They were 26 in shots against (32.9) and 26th in shots for (26.9). If we assume 3 fewer shots and 3 more shots (to get to even), that would put them at 15th in shots against and 17th in shots for.

    Jumping over 10 teams seems to be “best case scenario” not reasonable.

    Still, I appreciate all the figuring you have done here LT.

  8. Clay says:

    So LT, above in the graphic above for RE 2014-15 Preview, you spell Victor Fasth “Ben Scrivens”.

    I recommend more sleep!

  9. su_dhillon says:

    Its amazing how little we have to go on with Fasth, there’s the 2 seasons in SEL but outside of that he has played so few games that its really difficult to have a reasonable expectation, no?

    Certainly good arrows and we have seen goalies with similar limited playing time develop quickly into reliable starters but man I sure am glad MacT has 2 of these guys and isnt just relying on 1 of them to go supernova which is what Tambo would of done.

  10. danieldelair says:

    If I could hijack the thread for a minute, since I missed my opportunity on the Leon signing post, does someone want to weigh in on the difference between Landeskog and Draisatl? Same size, both top-three picks, and Leon posted almost double Landeskog’s numbers in junior. Landeskog had a fantastic first year, points-wise and by advanced stats metrics. Is there any reason to believe that Drai can’t perform to this level in his rookie season, seeing as he’s making the team?

  11. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    270 – 228 does not equal 39.What am I missing (besides 3 GA)?

    And I can’t see the Oilers making up 42 goals on GA.That’s essentially half a goal a game, when we did not see any improvement in the Corgis in the last half of last season.

    They were outshot 6 shots a game last year.They were 26 in shots against (32.9) and 26th in shots for (26.9).If we assume 3 fewer shots and 3 more shots (to get to even), that would put them at 15th in shots against and 17th in shots for.

    Jumping over 10 teams seems to be “best case scenario” not reasonable.

    Still, I appreciate all the figuring you have done here LT.

    NHL.com has the Oilers at 267, 270 was the last Quinn season.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSAAAll&sort=avgGoalsAgainstPerGame&viewName=goalsAgainst

    I understand your view on the GA and the SA, but the Oilers were SO bad I think a more traditional setup and better breakouts should make a huge difference. Even running time off the clock is better than turning it over.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Lowdown today!

    10:05 James Mirtle
    10:30 Travis Yost, Hockeybuzz
    11:00 Rob Vollman to talk about his new book
    11:25 Kelly Friesen Yahoo Sports about Draisaitl

  13. G Money says:

    Ducey: They were outshot 6 shots a game last year. They were 26 in shots against (32.9) and 26th in shots for (26.9). If we assume 3 fewer shots and 3 more shots (to get to even), that would put them at 15th in shots against and 17th in shots for.

    Actually, there are a couple of things to keep in mind when mulling the topic of shots against next year.

    First, I’ll point out an interesting SA fact that everyone may have forgotten. On the Scrivens thread yesterday, someone pointed out that we shouldn’t be confident in Scrivens at all, because Scrivens’ last number of games was very similar to Dubnyk’s in terms of sv% (both around .904).

    Quantitatively this might be right, but it doesn’t jive with the impression created by the actual games played, where Scrivens was a (good) difference maker many times in those last number of games, while Dubnyk was a (bad) difference maker early.

    And sure enough, you can see that clearly in the SA numbers. The Oilers averaged 28 SA/G the first 20 games of the season, and 35 (!!!) SA/G the last 20 games. That 32.9 SA/G name is a hybrid of two half seasons (and Dellow has done yeoman work showing that the specific change occurred in early December, around attempting to win more faceoffs for Nuge and Gagner. And I’ve done other work over at C&B showing how Yak went from a Corsi monster to a Corsi chicken baby in that same timeframe).

    So when we’re looking at SA numbers for next year, bear that 28 SA/G in mind.

    Secondly, you’ll probably see the 28 SA/G and say “yeah, but, SWARM!”.

    To which I would say – remember what the swarm is and was. It’s an overload system that is intended to compensate for an undersized defensive corps that is unable to win puck battles consistently. You overload to win more puck battles, but that of course puts a lot more pressure on the non-overload players to have flawless defensive coverage.

    “Oilers” and “flawless defensive coverage” go together like Derek Van Diest and the ability to add.

    The Oilers had the smallest Top 4 D corps in the WC last year, and probably the whole damn league. That’s why we needed the swarm.

    Guess what? We just added two legit NHL D both weighing 215 lbs+ to the roster. In addition to improving the talent level, and therefore the defensive coverage on many shifts, size differentials may mean the Oilers actually have the luxury of playing a more conservative box defense this year.

    So adding it up:
    - rookie coach learning
    - players covering
    - swarm deswarming
    - puck battles winning
    and as a cherry on top
    - Dellow statsing

    So I don’t think an improvement of 3 SA/G is unreasonable – that’s actually the minimum I expect to see.

  14. Factotum Pochemuchka says:

    Beautiful job on the RE series, as always, LT. Thanks.

    Jeebus, these offseasons are interminable…
    That is all.

  15. Ducey says:

    commonfan14: Mark Lee turfed.

    Its sad when someone loses their job, but I am glad we don’t have to listen to him doing Oilers’ broadcasts. Talk about negative.

    Now if they can just get rid of Scott “Uncomfortable Question” Oake.

  16. Ducey says:

    Lowetide,

    My confusion on the 270 came from TSN. They have the Oilers giving up 270 GA
    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/standings/

    Thanks

  17. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Its sad when someone loses their job, but I am glad we don’t have to listen to him doing Oilers’ broadcasts. Talk about negative.

    Now if they can just get rid of Scott “Uncomfortable Question” Oake.

    Scott Oake’s uncomfortable questions are a national treasure!

    Its PJ and Healy who need to go.

  18. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Woodguy,

    If they didn’t fire PJ for popping the collar on his suit, they won’t fire him now. The man clearly has embarrassing pictures of CBC execs or the prime minister in his back pocket.

  19. Jujhar says:

    The way Eakins talked about Dellow having an opinion makes me thinks Smith and Buchberger were just a couple of Yes-men that couldn’t think for themselves and contributed nothing.

  20. PeOiler says:

    I’m guessing LT did not check out ‘goaler’ in the Urban Dictionary before typing it.

  21. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    So adding it up:
    - rookie coach learning
    - players covering
    - swarm deswarming
    - puck battles winning
    and as a cherry on top
    - Dellow statsing

    Don’t forget about “veteran coach helping”

    When Eakins hired Ramsay the first thing he said was “Craig’s already pointed out a couple of things we should stop doing”

    I breathed a large sigh of relief.

    Eakins has a guy on staff who can say “are you sure you want to do that?”

    He can also say it with authority and have an alternative at the ready.

    Add to this Tyler finding best practices from other teams (i.e. Boudreau’s face off loss strategy which results in almost a 60%CF!!) and quickly analyzing where the Oiler’s systems are/aren’t working, and there’s lots to hang your hat on in terms of hope.

  22. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy,

    No possible way we can improve from last year. Can’t believe this was actually in question by some.

  23. Bank Shot says:

    I will believe the Oilers improvement when I see it and not before.

    So many things played as positives this offseason don’t look much different then same old-same old to me.

    Yes, the Oilers added two vet wingers, but they subtracted two vet wingers last season in Smyth and Hemsky.

    Goaltending is unproven and could go either way IMO. Scrivens seems like a pretty good bet, but the Oilers always go into the season making bets on things and it almost always blows up in their faces.

    Defence looks improved, but I don’t think its improved enough to make up for all the other deficiencies on the roster. And going from terrible to, just bad on the back end doesn’t mean a huge decrease in goals allowed to me.

    Can we find another defense in the West that the Oilers D-corps looks better than?

    I really just don’t see how improvements that look marginal at best are going to get the Oilers into mid pack territory on goals allowed.

  24. PDX Oiler Fan says:

    I noted this in an earlier thread: Last year there were 14 teams whose GF-GA was at least +5, and all of them made the playoffs. There were 12 teams whose GF-GA was worse than -5, and none of them made the playoffs. That left 4 teams around break-even (actually between -4 and +2) and 2/4 made the playoffs.

    So if LT is predicting -2 (226-228) then I think he’s predicting they’re in the hunt, 50/50 chance.

  25. G Money says:

    PDX Oiler Fan: So if LT is predicting -2 (226-228) then I think he’s predicting they’re in the hunt, 50/50 chance.

    That’s exactly what I expect too – that at the end of the year, they’re in the hunt this year. I don’t think they’ll make it (still too much ground to make up to be a playoff team in the WC), but in the hunt.

  26. G Money says:

    Bank Shot,

    Heh heh, “marginal at best”, hey? Methinks you’ve been spending an awful lot of time over at C&B!

    (and this from someone who regularly gets accused of being a pessimist)

  27. Pouzar says:

    See what I mean?

  28. VanOil says:

    LT great work on the RE both the Math and the Music were great. I respect the effort and results.

    I would like to make an early nomination for the Music on the training camp RE.

    Edmonton’s own Daniela Andrade http://www.youtube.com/user/DanielaSings

    Daniela is a superstar in the making; her YouTube covers have made her a star. Her originals are every bit as good. The world just hasn’t figured it out yet.

    I realize the ask of your time to delve into a new artists song catalog to find the songs you choose but on the other hand it will be an enjoyable journey and the covers will make for some easy picking. For those looking for an introduction to Daniela’s work I would start with ‘popular uploads’ play list. I have yet to find a song of hers I haven’t enjoyed working my way through her entire play list.

    To end; She is a young Edmonton Girl, all world skill, about to rule the world, who could be better fit for our beloved Oilers?

    Heck with an early request she might even do an apropos cover wearing the player number for us.

    You may have heard her recently covering Beyonce for the 50 shades of Gray trailer here: http://youtu.be/H7JPh2Kq6ok

    Or on ‘Suits’ covering Gnarls Barkley here: http://youtu.be/fzxag7U3Snk

    Her biggest Original hit so far is: http://youtu.be/4lodu6rx62I

  29. TheOtherJohn says:

    “Quantitatively this might be right, but it doesn’t jive with the impression created by the actual games played, where Scrivens was a (good) difference maker many times in those last number of games, while Dubnyk was a (bad) difference maker early.”

    The above in a nutshell is the basis of Oiler fans optimism for our goaltending. Impressions.

    It is also the point I was trying to make at the end of the Scrivens thread. Scrivens came in like absolute gangbusters when traded here and then played ok goal over March and April. His start here, with fantastic numbers incluided a .940 Sv% in the month of January, skews our memory of his season as an Oiler. Similiarly Dubnyk’s abysmal start skews our memory of his entire 2013/14 season.The problem with that impression is that Dubnyk’s November and December, ie the end of his time here, was very similar to Scrivens March and April.

    One memory is terrible and the other is the epitome of optimism.

    If Scrivens replicates his start here we will have a good #1. If he replicates March and April #’s we may be in for another long season

  30. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Defence looks improved, but I don’t think its improved enough to make up for all the other deficiencies on the roster. And going from terrible to, just bad on the back end doesn’t mean a huge decrease in goals allowed to me.

    That’s exceptionally jaded.

    Terrible to bad doesn’t describe the D at all.

    I would say from bad to competent is much better.

    Adding 2 Dmen at the top of the depth chart pushes everyone down and therefore all 6 spots get better.

    Also as far as C”s go:

    RNH=RNH (although you expect him to be better than last year with a full summer to train)

    Arco >> Gagner – and its not close without the puck. Acro put up 5%+ better CF than Gagner did with the same players

    Gordon = Gordon

    DrySaddle > Acton/Smyth/Lander (probably)

    So C has improved marginally.

    WIngs are vastly improved. Losing Smyth was nothing, he was done. Losing Ales hurts but they didn’t play him in a scoring role for the last 1/2 of the year, so you’re not trying to improve from good Ales, but mis-cast Ales, and that ‘s easy.

    The wingers they brought in are proven drivers of play and old Smytty and awful Jones are gone.

    Goaltending is improved. Dubnyk was a complete basket case and cost them games when they were good.

    I’m willing to wager on this.

  31. Pouzar says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    So if the numbers were a wash(let’s just say they were) what did you eyes tell you about DD and Scrivens?

  32. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy,

    Easy money WG, no way the finish bottom 3 this year.
    I want some of that action. For pure sanity I just want us to finish ahead of WPG.

  33. TheOtherJohn says:

    Pouzar

    My eyes tell me Dubnyk was not as bad, for the Oilers last year as he is painted here and elsewhere througout the Oilblogosphere and Scriven is not as good as he is painted in those same places. Dubnyk is identified as the single biggest reason our season failed. His last 2 months here were very similiar to Scrivens last 2 months

  34. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn: The above in a nutshell is the basis of Oiler fans optimism for our goaltending. Impressions.

    You’re missing the point. The data support the impressions. Specifically the fact that those ‘similar numbers’ that DD and BS put up were vs 28 and 35 SA/G per game. That’s the difference between a .904 goalie behind a team playing well, still in the playoff hunt, and against EC opposition, and putting up a .904 behind a team that’s given up, at the bottom, and against WC teams.

    You can also deconstruct those games and you’ll see that the number of games that Scrivens had where he threw in a .930 or better game was also higher.

    By eye, Scrivens had to make a whole bunch more top notch saves just to match the sv%. And he did. The data support it.

    We don’t need to hope for a resurgence from Scrivens, just consistency.

  35. speeds says:

    Woodguy:

    Adding 2 Dmen at the top of the depth chart pushes everyone down and therefore all 6 spots get better.

    How confident are you that both Nikitin and Fayne are better than Petry?

  36. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: That’s exceptionally jaded.

    Terrible to bad doesn’t describe the D at all.

    I would say from bad to competent is much better.

    Adding 2 Dmen at the top of the depth chart pushes everyone down and therefore all 6 spots get better.

    Also as far as C”s go:

    RNH=RNH (although you expect him to be better than last year with a full summer to train)

    Arco >> Gagner – and its not close without the puck.Acro put up5%+ better CF than Gagner did with the same players

    Gordon = Gordon

    DrySaddle > Acton/Smyth/Lander (probably)

    So C has improved marginally.

    WIngs are vastly improved.Losing Smyth was nothing, he was done.Losing Ales hurts but they didn’t play him in a scoring role for the last 1/2 of the year, so you’re not trying to improve from good Ales, but mis-cast Ales, and that ‘s easy.

    The wingers they brought in are proven drivers of play and old Smytty and awful Jones are gone.

    Goaltending is improved.Dubnyk was a complete basket case and cost them games when they were good.

    I’m willing to wager on this.

    They got two more guys on D. The guys they picked up don’t come close to comparing to what most Western Conference teams have on their top pairing. Even Calgary has a better top pairing.

    There is no guarantee that either of these guys is going to be playing at the top of the depth chart either. Nikitin was playing third line minutes last season. Fayne was playing shutdown, but he wasn’t logging the most minutes on his team.

    You used corsi to back up your argument that Arcobello is better than Gagner, but then just write off Smytty as being “too old”. There’s a possibility Arco will be better than Gagner. The sample size is so small its hard to take anything away from it though. Draisaitl will likely get his lunch fed to him every night like pretty much every other 18 year old center thrown in the deep end. I wouldn’t expect more than a Monahan-esque season.

    Smytty had excellent corsi numbers despite brutal zone starts. Hemsky has been the golden child of the oilblogosphere for years. You can’t just hand wave away his subtraction. It blows my mind that you can say Purcell and Pouliot are a vast improvement on the previous two.

    Goaltending will be improved over the start of last season for sure. Team save % actually ended up being 17th overall in the league at 91% though, so I don’t think we can expect a big upswing overall, just better consistency.

    I’m willing to bet the Oilers won’t be within 5 goals of even in terms of goals for/against on the season if you are willing to make wagers.

  37. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ducey:
    Lowetide,

    My confusion on the 270 came from TSN.They have the Oilers giving up 270 GA
    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/standings/

    Thanks

    Difference is 3 shootout “goals”-against which the NHL has no freaking idea how to count. Show up in the scorelines and standings but not the stats.

  38. Pouzar says:

    Bank Shot,

    So where will the Oilers finish then? I say they have improved over last year and will finish 25th or better. You?

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Scott Oake’s uncomfortable questions are a national treasure!

    Its PJ and Healy who need to go.

    I’ll second that demotion.

  40. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: those ‘similar numbers’ that DD and BS put up were vs 28 and 35 SA/G per game

    Any merit to the notion that Scrivens was facing more outside shots due to a change in systems, whereas Dubnyk faced fewer shots due to The Swarm but they included a high percentage of Joffrey Lupul one-timers from 10 feet out?

    (That’s the visual that is burned on my brain from last season’s awful first quarter)

    (PS: I still cannot believe that former goalie Glenn Healy shit on Dubnyk for allowing said 10-foot bomb into top corner. Absolutely atrocious analysis from a supposed expert. When Healy’s contract comes up for renewal they should just play that tape over and over again.)

  41. TheOtherJohn says:

    GMoney

    Scrivens had more shots. Bruce may be onto something though re the swarm.

    Not sure where you get the EC/WC thing from. Dubnyk faced Car, Boston, Fla (2), TB and Columbus in those 17Nov/Dec games. Scrivens faced OTT, NYI (w/o Tavares) Car, Buff, NYR in his last 14 games so it was NOT a WC/EC issue at all. The other thing you mention is one team has given up. I presume you mean the team in front of Scrivens so that the “impression” is he worked harder for the same sv% .

  42. PaperKurtRussell says:

    For sure we can’t forget the subtraction of Hemsky, but he was gone at the deadline. Too lazy to look up the stats, but seems to me the Oil played half decent after the deadline. If someone more ambitious can look at the record or stats pre and post deadline, then perhaps we can ignore the subtraction of Hemsky and focus on the add of Pouliot and Purcell.

  43. russ99 says:

    I like Fasth for the #1 job for three reasons.

    1 – Swedish goalies rule, and are often late bloomers. And Fasth definitely has the track record over there to turn into something great at the NHL level.

    2 – He’s playing for his next contract, like Scrivens last year, and coming off injuries, so he could be better than advertised.

    3 – Scrivens’ numbers last year may not be sustainable. His numbers with LA are definitely not sustainable. If he has a downturn as expected, we’ll have a better team so the downturn may not be apparent at first, but Fasth could get his chance and run with it.

  44. PaperDesigner says:

    VanOil:
    LT great work on the RE both the Math and the Music were great. I respect the effort and results.

    I would like to make an early nomination for the Music on the training camp RE.

    Edmonton’s own Daniela Andrade http://www.youtube.com/user/DanielaSings

    Daniela is a superstar in the making; her YouTube covers have made her a star. Her originals are every bit as good. The world just hasn’t figured it out yet.

    I realize the ask of your time to delve into a new artists song catalog to find the songs you choose but on the other hand it will be an enjoyable journey and the covers will make for some easy picking. For those looking for an introduction to Daniela’s work I would start with ‘popular uploads’ play list. I have yet to find a song of hers I haven’t enjoyed working my way through her entire play list.

    To end; She is a young Edmonton Girl, all world skill, about to rule the world, who could be better fit for our beloved Oilers?

    Heck with an early request she might even do an apropos cover wearing the player number for us.

    You may have heard her recently covering Beyonce for the 50 shades of Gray trailer here: http://youtu.be/H7JPh2Kq6ok

    Or on ‘Suits’ covering Gnarls Barkley here: http://youtu.be/fzxag7U3Snk

    Her biggest Original hit so far is: http://youtu.be/4lodu6rx62I

    Thanks for bringing her to my attention. I always appreciate having someone new to listen to.

  45. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Any merit to the notion that Scrivens was facing more outside shots due to a change in systems, whereas Dubnyk faced fewer shots due to The Swarm but they included a high percentage of Joffrey Lupul one-timers from 10 feet out?

    I think the blatant poor coverage was consistent throughout. I think it was worse after Gagner took over Arco.

    Haven’t looked into shot distances to a rickithebear extent, but I did look at overall shot distance. Avg distance on Dubnyk’s shots faced was about 1 foot closer. The other teams shooting percentage as a result was 3% higher on Dubnyk.

  46. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn: Not sure where you get the EC/WC thing from. Dubnyk faced Car, Boston, Fla (2), TB and Columbus in those 17Nov/Dec games.

    For ease of comparison, I mostly looked at the last 21 i.e. all for Scrivens/first 21 for Dubnyk games (if you want to cherry pick the time period to maximize your argument, go ahead, it doesn’t strengthen it). In that run, Scrivens faced 7 EC teams, Dubnyk 12. 33% vs 57% qualifies as a difference in my books.

  47. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Any merit to the notion that Scrivens was facing more outside shots due to a change in systems, whereas Dubnyk faced fewer shots due to The Swarm but they included a high percentage of Joffrey Lupul one-timers from 10 feet out?

    Since you asked, I did pull up the shot count for 0-10 ft. Here’s the comparison:

    Shots Shots within 10ft Goals Oppsh%
    Dubynk 255 18 (7.1%) 5 27.8%
    Scrivens 410 41 (10%) 5 12.2%

    Or to put it another way: Scrivens faced more shots per game, a larger percentage of those shots were from within 10 ft of the net, and his save percentage against those shots was more than twice as good as Dubnyks.

  48. Lois Lowe says:

    Glenn Healy is one of the worst hockey analysts going right now. He’s like your drunk, belligerent uncle that relies on out yelling you to win arguments. He hasn’t said anything of value in years.

  49. Bank Shot says:

    Pouzar:
    Bank Shot,

    So where will the Oilers finish then? I say they have improved over last year and will finish 25th or better. You?

    25th sounds pretty reasonable.

    I’d balk at placing them any higher then 20th. That’s the highest placing that seems any kind of likely.

    Below 25th wouldn’t exactly surprise me either.

  50. Ribs says:

    Interesting tidbit in there from TSN…

    Armitage and Lee learned they were being laid off in early May and recently wrapped up their final days at CBC. Both were given the opportunity to bump newer employees out of their positions but chose not to displace younger workers.

  51. Pouzar says:

    G Money,

    Thank you for that.

  52. Woodguy says:

    speeds: How confident are you that both Nikitin and Fayne are better than Petry?

    Nikitin is pushing down Marincin and Ference on the left side.

    I like Marincin a lot and think he’s the real deal, but Nikitin has a history of 1st pairing and 206 NHL games so I think its fair to slot him above Marincin, who was very good playing 1sts last year.

    I have no idea if Fayne is as good as Petry, but his results against tough comp are very good (as are Petry’s) at the leas he pushes Shultz to 3rds and massively improves the 2RD with either him or Petry there.

    Those two signings made all 6 slots better.

    They certainly significantly improved 2LD, 2RD, 3LD,a nd 3RD and that’s where the biggest problems were last year.

    If Ference and Jultz never see the Thortons, Sedins and Toews of the world because of these moves that a huge improvement with the same players.

  53. rickithebear says:

    G Money: Since you asked, I did pull up the shot count for 0-10 ft.Here’s the comparison:

    ShotsShots within 10ftGoals Oppsh%
    Dubynk 255 18 (7.1%) 527.8%
    Scrivens 410 41 (10%) 5 12.2%

    Or to put it another way: Scrivens faced more shots per game, a larger percentage of those shots were from within 10 ft of the net, and his save percentage against those shots was more than twice as good as Dubnyks.

    Good against the tougher shots!
    #4 last 3 years.

  54. speeds says:

    @monctonwildcats 2 Wildcats going to NHL camps — Ivan Barbashev (2nd round pick St. Louis) and Vladimir Tkachev (free agent Edmonton).— Neil Hodge (@ttneilhodge) August 13, 2014

    It will be interesting to see if EDM does what CAR did with Tolchinsky, and signs him to an ELC.

  55. Ducey says:

    I’m willing to bet the Oilers won’t be within 5 goals of even in terms of goals for/against on the season if you are willing to make wagers.

    Huh? That doesn’t jive with your doom and gloom prediction of “marginal improvement”.

    -6 from -60 something would be a massive improvement and put the Oilers within shouting distance of the playoffs.

  56. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    They got two more guys on D. The guys they picked up don’t come close to comparing to what most Western Conference teams have on their top pairing. Even Calgary has a better top pairing.

    1) Gio and Brodie might be the best top pairing in the NHL. To say “even Calgary has a better top pairing” is disingenuous.

    2) I think the Oilers’ blue is better than:

    -SJS (vlasic very good, Demers good, Braun ok, Burns much better up front)
    -CAL (overall. top pair is exception then its a cliff)
    -NAS (Weber not the same without Suter, Josi good, Jones still young)
    -ANA (Fowler very good, Limpholm very good, Beuchimen getting old, drops off after that)
    -DAL (Daley very good, Goligoski improving, Dillon good, Gonchar is done, nothing after that)
    -COL (Johnson very good, Barrie very good, Hejda waning, nothing after them)

    Its probably close on SJS, but Burns isn’t that good as a Dman


    There is no guarantee that either of these guys is going to be playing at the top of the depth chart either. Nikitin was playing third line minutes last season. Fayne was playing shutdown, but he wasn’t logging the most minutes on his team.

    We need to be clear on our definitions.

    I rank Dmen by QC, not TOI 5v5. PHX gave Yandle lost of TOI but sheltered him. There are lots of examples of this. When I mention 1st/2nd/3rd is always in relation to QC, not 5v5 TOI.

    That being said, Fayne has a history of playing well vs 1st comp.

    Nikitin was injured last year and also held the hand a meh rookie all year. Savard was 49.3% w/ Nikitin and 46% without.

    56% of Nikitin’s 5v5 TOI was with Savard.

    He was 52% with Prout and 59% with WIz who were his next two most common partners.

    Nikitin has a history of doing well vs 1st comp. We’ll have to see, but I think its a reasonable bet with a good partner (Fayne or Petry). Not $4.5MM worth, but still a good bet.

    You used corsi to back up your argument that Arcobello is better than Gagner, but then just write off Smytty as being “too old”. There’s a possibility Arco will be better than Gagner. The sample size is so small its hard to take anything away from it though. Draisaitl will likely get his lunch fed to him every night like pretty much every other 18 year old center thrown in the deep end. I wouldn’t expect more than a Monahan-esque season.

    Smytty did have a decent RelCor, but he played mostly 3rd/4ths last year and the players coming both played tougher comp on average and did better against them. Its not close.


    Smytty had excellent corsi numbers despite brutal zone starts. Hemsky has been the golden child of the oilblogosphere for years. You can’t just hand wave away his subtraction. It blows my mind that you can say Purcell and Pouliot are a vast improvement on the previous two.

    You’re right with the Hemsky thing.

    I think you seriously underestimate how good NHLers are if it “blows your mind” that Purcell and Pouliot can effectively replace Smyth and Hemsky.

    Seriously, Smytty was sheltered pretty good last year and didn’t add much after a hot start.

    If it were Hemsky and Perron you were replacing, I’d agree with you, but its not, its Smyth.


    Goaltending will be improved over the start of last season for sure. Team save % actually ended up being 17th overall in the league at 91% though, so I don’t think we can expect a big upswing overall, just better consistency.

    I agree with this.

    The key will be less SA/60. I expect them to be back in the 28-29 SA/gm range instead of 32.


    I’m willing to bet the Oilers won’t be within 5 goals of even in terms of goals for/against on the season if you are willing to make wagers.

    Wait a second.

    You said:

    So many things played as positives this offseason don’t look much different then same old-same old to me.

    That indicates you expect no change, so expect a -67 goal differential, not Even +/- 5. Those are worlds apart.

    Its pretty ballsy to say no change then set the line 62 goals better than the year before.

    That’s something I would do to see if the other guy was paying attention.

    Care to set a different line?

  57. Ducey says:

    Bohologo: So, it’s a slow news day (month), here is some marginal fodder: August 9th Dallas Eakins once again did the Leadville 100 mile mountain bike race in the Colorado Rockies. Results:http://results.chronotrack.com/event/results/event/event-5682?lc=en1130 out of 1284, 36 minutes slower than last year.Clearly this means he is spending more time on coaching-specific activities, and less time on his V02. Right? I’ve got a buddy who will be doing the Leadville Trail 100 mile run on Saturday. He is bad crazy.

    Yeah, some of my family went there and got altitude sickness. Running 100 miles is bad enough. Running it there is lunacy.

  58. Woodguy says:

    PaperKurtRussell:
    For sure we can’t forget the subtraction of Hemsky, but he was gone at the deadline.Too lazy to look up the stats, but seems to me the Oil played half decent after the deadline.If someone more ambitious can look at the record or stats pre and post deadline, then perhaps we can ignore the subtraction of Hemsky and focus on the add of Pouliot and Purcell.

    They were awful after the deadline.

    They played well in Oct, ok in Nov/Dec then fell off the cliff.

  59. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy,

    WG bringing the goods again. Thank you.

  60. "Steve Smith" says:

    Ducey:
    I’m willing to bet the Oilers won’t be within 5 goals of even in terms of goals for/against on the season if you are willing to make wagers.

    Huh?That doesn’t jive with your doom and gloom prediction of “marginal improvement”.

    -6 from -60 something would be a massive improvement and put the Oilers within shouting distance of the playoffs.

    Woodguy:

    I’m willing to bet the Oilers won’t be within 5 goals of even in terms of goals for/against on the season if you are willing to make wagers.

    Wait a second.

    You said:

    So many things played as positives this offseason don’t look much different then same old-same old to me.

    That indicates you expect no change, so expect a -67 goal differential, not Even +/- 5.Those are worlds apart.

    Its pretty ballsy to say no change then set the line 62 goals better than the year before.

    That’s something I would do to see if the other guy was paying attention.

    Care to set a different line?

    Ducey and Woodguy just repeating each other, as usual.

  61. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    Bank Shot,

    They got two more guys on D. The guys they picked up don’t come close to comparing to what most Western Conference teams have on their top pairing. Even Calgary has a better top pairing.

    1) Gio and Brodie might be the best top pairing in the NHL.To say “even Calgary has a better top pairing” is disingenuous.

    2) I think the Oilers’ blue is better than:

    -SJS (vlasic very good, Demers good, Braun ok, Burns much better up front)
    -CAL (overall.top pair is exception then its a cliff)
    -NAS (Weber not the same without Suter, Josi good, Jones still young)
    -ANA (Fowler very good, Limpholm very good, Beuchimen getting old, drops off after that)
    -DAL (Daley very good, Goligoski improving, Dillon good, Gonchar is done, nothing after that)
    -COL (Johnson very good, Barrie very good, Hejda waning, nothing after them)

    Its probably close on SJS, but Burns isn’t that good as a Dman


    There is no guarantee that either of these guys is going to be playing at the top of the depth chart either. Nikitin was playing third line minutes last season. Fayne was playing shutdown, but he wasn’t logging the most minutes on his team.

    We need to be clear on our definitions.

    I rank Dmen by QC, not TOI 5v5.PHX gave Yandle lost of TOI but sheltered him.There are lots of examples of this.When I mention 1st/2nd/3rd is always in relation to QC, not 5v5 TOI.

    That being said, Fayne has a history of playing well vs 1st comp.

    Nikitin was injured last year and also held the hand a meh rookie all year.Savard was 49.3% w/ Nikitin and 46% without.

    56% of Nikitin’s 5v5 TOI was with Savard.

    He was 52% with Prout and 59% with WIz who were his next two most common partners.

    Nikitin has a history of doing well vs 1st comp.We’ll have to see, but I think its a reasonable bet with a good partner (Fayne or Petry).Not $4.5MM worth, but still a good bet.

    You used corsi to back up your argument that Arcobello is better than Gagner, but then just write off Smytty as being “too old”. There’s a possibility Arco will be better than Gagner. The sample size is so small its hard to take anything away from it though. Draisaitl will likely get his lunch fed to him every night like pretty much every other 18 year old center thrown in the deep end. I wouldn’t expect more than a Monahan-esque season.

    Smytty did have a decent RelCor, but he played mostly 3rd/4ths last year and the players coming both played tougher comp on average and did better against them.Its not close.


    Smytty had excellent corsi numbers despite brutal zone starts. Hemsky has been the golden child of the oilblogosphere for years. You can’t just hand wave away his subtraction. It blows my mind that you can say Purcell and Pouliot are a vast improvement on the previous two.

    You’re right with the Hemsky thing.

    I think you seriously underestimate how good NHLers are if it “blows your mind” that Purcell and Pouliot can effectively replace Smyth and Hemsky.

    Seriously, Smytty was sheltered pretty good last year and didn’t add much after a hot start.

    If it were Hemsky and Perron you were replacing, I’d agree with you, but its not, its Smyth.


    Goaltending will be improved over the start of last season for sure. Team save % actually ended up being 17th overall in the league at 91% though, so I don’t think we can expect a big upswing overall, just better consistency.

    I agree with this.

    The key will be less SA/60.I expect them to be back in the 28-29 SA/gm range instead of 32.


    I’m willing to bet the Oilers won’t be within 5 goals of even in terms of goals for/against on the season if you are willing to make wagers.

    Wait a second.

    You said:

    So many things played as positives this offseason don’t look much different then same old-same old to me.

    That indicates you expect no change, so expect a -67 goal differential, not Even +/- 5.Those are worlds apart.

    Its pretty ballsy to say no change then set the line 62 goals better than the year before.

    That’s something I would do to see if the other guy was paying attention.

    Care to set a different line?

    Our philosophy is the same!

    it is just Corsi versus Goals.

    and

    and you like to state a CF%
    rather than +/-

    Which is flawed.

    .932 CF20 .632 CA20 = +.300 CF
    .932/1.564 = 59.6%

    .632 CF20 .332 CA20 = +.300 CF
    .632/.964 = 65.7%

    both generate the exact same CF differential per 20

    But stated by a %
    gives the false impression of superior play for the 2nd set.

    CF or GF is a personal choice.

    Failing to present Data properly makes moneypuck look silly!

  62. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Ducey and Woodguy just repeating each other, as usual.

    The twins.

  63. jjerms12 says:

    I’m still not convinced that the goaltending situation is all that different from last year. I see a lot of similarities between the start of this season and the start of last season, with the exception that Fasth should be a clear upgrade on Labarbera. I even got of my keister and wrote a short piece on this today:
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/8/13/5999115/caution-oilers-goaltending-situation

  64. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: Our philosophy is the same!

    it is just Corsi versus Goals.

    and

    and you like to state a CF%
    rather than +/-

    Which is flawed.

    .932 CF20 .632 CA20 =+.300 CF
    .932/1.564 =59.6%

    .632 CF20.332 CA20= +.300 CF
    .632/.964 = 65.7%

    both generate the exact same CF differential per 20

    But stated by a %
    gives the false impression of superior play forthe 2ndset.

    CF or GF is a personal choice.

    Failing topresent Data properly makesmoneypuck look silly!

    <3

    Love you too Ricki!

  65. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Ducey and Woodguy just repeating each other, as usual.

    We even finish each other`s sentences when we`re together.

  66. Bank Shot says:

    1) Gio and Brodie might be the best top pairing in the NHL.To say “even Calgary has a better top pairing” is disingenuous.

    2) I think the Oilers’ blue is better than:

    -SJS (vlasic very good, Demers good, Braun ok, Burns much better up front)
    -CAL (overall.top pair is exception then its a cliff)
    -NAS (Weber not the same without Suter, Josi good, Jones still young)
    -ANA (Fowler very good, Limpholm very good, Beuchimen getting old, drops off after that)
    -DAL (Daley very good, Goligoski improving, Dillon good, Gonchar is done, nothing after that)
    -COL (Johnson very good, Barrie very good, Hejda waning, nothing after them)

    Its probably close on SJS, but Burns isn’t that good as a Dman

    If you think the Oilers D-core is better than the Preds and Sharks we are so far apart there is no point in even going there.

    Smytty did have a decent RelCor, but he played mostly 3rd/4ths last year and the players coming both played tougher comp on average and did better against them.Its not close.

    Smyth and Purcell were 7th in qual comp on their respective teams and Pouliot was 10th.

    If you take a look at Pouliot’s most commonly faced opponents the top of the list reads Nathan Gerbe. Don’t tell me that P&P faced noticeably tougher competition because I really don’t see it.

    Smyth’s zone starts were far more severe as well. Taking those into account it certainly appears pretty close to me.

    The key will be less SA/60.I expect them to be back in the 28-29 SA/gm range instead of 32.

    What do you mean “back” in the 28-29 range.? They haven’t been there since 2007. Why would you expect them to do something that they have never shown the ability to do.

    Hope maybe.

    That indicates you expect no change, so expect a -67 goal differential, not Even +/- 5.Those are worlds apart.

    Its pretty ballsy to say no change then set the line 62 goals better than the year before.

    That’s something I would do to see if the other guy was paying attention.
    Care to set a different line?

    Well you are the one agreeing with RE:Expectations of the -3 Lowetide laid out and I am the one disagreeing, so I thought you would be willing to take some risk defending your position.

    I think they aren’t primed to move far up the standings when I say they haven’t improved much if any. Which means they could improve by +40 and still finish 24th or 25th in the league.

    Would you consider that a successful season? -27 and 25th overall? I sure wouldn’t. I would consider that marginal improvement.

    What’s the line that’s fair? -10, -15? Anything worse then that is a hopelessly shitty team with no chance at playoffs.

    BTW, I’m already putting my money where my mouth is by committing to selling off as many Feb,March, and April home games as I can. You should buy them all up if you think the Oilers will be in the playoff drive. You’ll make good money on resales.

  67. Pouzar says:

    Bad news for @PARaidersHockey as @DuckMillard breaks the news that @Drat_29 will play in Europe if not with the Oilers. On now at @TSN1260
    — Guy Flaming (@TPS_Guy) August 13, 2014

  68. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Those two signings made all 6 slots better.

    You know, on the topic of whether or not one or two players can make a difference, please allow me to reminisce for a moment. (Feel free to ignore me even more than usual if you are not an Esks fan)

    Anyone remember the 2005 Grey Cup Champion Edmonton Eskimos?

    Pretty solid team. Ray at QB. Tucker and Hervey at WR. Veteran secondary (Frank, Garrett, Brady). Good LB/DL crew too, with Gass, Mobley, Jeanty and Montford.

    What you might not remember is that this team actually struggled quite a bit for much of that season, especially on offense. They really had two big problems: RB and the O line (sound familiar?).

    At RB they had Goldie ‘n’ Elvis. ‘Nuff said.

    On the line, they had a terrific veteran crew, with Morris, Beaton, Lefsrud, and McGrath. Oh yeah, and one little problem: Glen “The Turnstile” Carson.

    Because of those two little problems, defenses didn’t have to worry about the run game. They just went into a tight zone and with a balls to the wall pass rush, and most times Ray was hit, hurried or sacked too often to hit those awesome receivers. He was pretty beat down by mid-season (sound familiar?)

    Then came the heist of the year: the trade for Comiskey and Davis.

    In one fell swoop, the Esks suddenly had a dominant o line. That’s what happens when you replace a glaring weakness with a strength.

    And that together with Troy Davis, they suddenly had an unstoppable running game.

    And with a running game to be feared, the balls to the wall pass rush didn’t work.

    And the running game together with a good o line gave Ray all kinds of time to throw.

    With time to wait for deep routes to develop, the opposing defenses couldn’t use a tight zone anymore. They had to respect the deep ball, and that opened up a ton of room all around the field, which is manna for a precision passer like Ray.

    And that made those dangerous receivers a big play threat on every single down.

    BAM! Grey Cup.

    All because of those two players at two key positions.

    The moral of the story is: do not underestimate the positive cascade of effects from upgrading at just one or two or three key positions.

    (Or if you’re a glass half empty kind of guy, you can think back on the 2007 Oilers and mull on the massive negative cascade of effects that can come from downgrading at just one or two or three key positions).

  69. commonfan14 says:

    Pouzar: Bad news for @PARaidersHockey as @DuckMillard breaks the news that @Drat_29 will play in Europe if not with the Oilers. On now at @TSN1260
    — Guy Flaming (@TPS_Guy) August 13, 2014

    Makes a ton of sense. Can Nurse go with him?

    twitter also says that the Oilers are bringing tiny Russian scoring machine Vladimir Tkachev to camp. He went undrafted this year and apparently that means he can be signed up.

    No idea what the CBA has to say about that, but people are saying that the Canes recently did it with a guy in the same situation.

  70. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ducey: Huh? That doesn’t jive with your doom and gloom prediction of “marginal improvement”.
    -6 from -60 something would be a massive improvement and put the Oilers within shouting distance of the playoffs.

    Bank Shot’s doom & gloom persona & his betting man persona are two different personae.

    Edit: I see Woodguy picked up on this also.

  71. Logan91 says:

    speeds: It will be interesting to see if EDM does what CAR did with Tolchinsky, and signs him to an ELC.

    http://youtu.be/Rl87sM1WZd4

    Don’t see why they wouldn’t, this is the type of player MacT seems to love now (Crazy speed, and insane skill).

  72. Bank Shot says:

    Ducey:
    I’m willing to bet the Oilers won’t be within 5 goals of even in terms of goals for/against on the season if you are willing to make wagers.

    Huh?That doesn’t jive with your doom and gloom prediction of “marginal improvement”.

    -6 from -60 something would be a massive improvement and put the Oilers within shouting distance of the playoffs.

    Yeah that would be a massive improvement wouldn’t it?

    If that’s reasonable then why aren’t there any takers on the bet?

  73. leadfarmer says:

    Nikitin isnt pushing anyone down the lineup. He is a 3rd line d that will end up playing above his established level of play. He will get a lot of PP time which will make his point totals look respectable but Marincin has already passed him and Ference is fairly even

  74. G Money says:

    Bank Shot: If that’s reasonable then why aren’t there any takers on the bet?

    What is the bet exactly? You keep moving the goalposts as far as I can tell.

  75. Bank Shot says:

    G Money: What is the bet exactly?You keep moving the goalposts as far as I can tell.

    Lets say Oilers will be at least -15 goal differential next season.

  76. G Money says:

    Bank Shot,

    Hmmm. So -15 would be a 40+ goal differential swing. Anything less than that and you win?

    So, what you’re stating is that there will be marginal improvement (which would imply say a -50 goal differential at best, a +17 swing), but you want your bet to allow you to win even if there is in fact a massive improvement?

    You don’t see the inherent contradiction in this?

    If you truly believe in what you say – “marginal improvement” – back it up and make your betting line -50.

  77. Bank Shot says:

    G Money:
    Bank Shot,

    Hmmm.So -15 would be a 40+ goal differential swing.Anything less than that and you win?

    So, what you’re stating is that there will be marginal improvement (which would imply say a -50 goal differential at best, a +17 swing), but you want your bet to allow you to win even if there is in fact a massive improvement?

    You don’t see the inherent contradiction in this?

    If you truly believe in what you say – “marginal improvement” – back it up and make your betting line -50.

    You are just splitting hairs on what “marginal improvement” is.

    The scale isn’t equal on both ends of the spectrum. It’s infinitely more difficult to go from 0 to +40 then it is to go from -70 to -30.

    Are you really going to be calling this season a success if the Oilers go from 28th to 24th?

    That just means they outpaced 2-3 teams that aren’t even trying to win.

  78. G Money says:

    Bank Shot: You are just splitting hairs on what “marginal improvement” is.

    LOL. I’m splitting hairs?

    The average goal differential for a bottom third team last year was -40.

    The average goal differential for a middle third team was 0.

    The average goal differential last year for a top third team was 44.

    A change of +40 moves you an entire tier. That’s a massive improvement, and if that’s what the Oilers end up achieving in a single season, I’ll tip my cap to the entire crew.

    And please do give me your proof that moving from -70 to -30 is easier than moving from 0 to +40.

    I’d say it’s easier the other way. A team that’s already in the middle tier has a WAY easier time signing top free agents at a reasonable price than a bottom tier team does. It’s easier to move from middle class to upper class than to move from poverty into the middle class.

    You’re just trying to obfuscate the fact that you’re being quite dishonest in your structuring of the bet, claiming that you think the Oilers will see “marginal” improvement, while trying to set the line so that you’d still win that bet even in the event of a massive improvement.

    Put your money where your mouth is. -50 is “marginal”. Anything more than that and you’re trying to bet Woodguy’s position, not yours.

  79. alice13 says:

    From the bleachers here, Bank Shot is talking about marginal improvement as reflected in overall standings.

    So…
    Call 21st a push,
    22nd is marginal improvement
    20th is a legit move up

    Sound fair?

  80. G Money says:

    alice13: From the bleachers here, Bank Shot is talking about marginal improvement as reflected in overall standings.

    Banksy’s original betting statement was: “I’m willing to bet the Oilers won’t be within 5 goals of even in terms of goals for/against on the season if you are willing to make wagers.

    So he’s stating that he believes a -67 goal diff team will see a marginal improvement, but wants to set the betting line at -5 – a change that would represent a massive single-season jump from a low bottom tier team to a distinctly mid mid-pack team.

    The recasting of that to ‘where the team finishes’ is a bit of a red herring, since I haven’t actually seen anyone go particularly far outside that 25-20 range (and in that case, my personal expectation is right around 20th i.e. the team jumping from the bottom of the bottom third to the bottom of the top third).

  81. TheOtherJohn says:

    alice13,

    A13

    You are just trying to obfuscate things and are really being quite dishonest in your suggested compromise

  82. Pouzar says:

    commonfan14: Makes a ton of sense.Can Nurse go with him?

    twitter also says that the Oilers are bringing tiny Russian scoring machine Vladimir Tkachev to camp.He went undrafted this year and apparently that means he can be signed up.

    No idea what the CBA has to say about that, but people are saying that the Canes recently did it with a guy in the same situation.

    I could be wrong but a stint in Europe burns a year on the ELC. Not 100% on that though.

  83. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    You’re just trying to obfuscate things and are really being quite dishonest in trying to pretend that you are “The Other” John, when you are, in fact, “The” John. I’m like Dexter. I know these things.

  84. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    If you think the Oilers D-core is better than the Preds and Sharks we are so far apart there is no point in even going there.

    I expect at least an argument. That’s kinda weak.

    I’ll give you NAS as I forgot Ekholm. Just a rookie, but had a good season.

    I rate Weber above anyone the Oilers have, but I also think he’s quite over rated. Neither he nor Suter have had as good results 2 seasons apart as they did together. Not uncommon among very good D partners.

    Josi, Ekholm and Jones rate similarly to Fayne, Petry and Marincin imo. Ellis rates close to Jultz so Weber gives NAS the win.

    You really need to sell me on SJS though.

    Vlasic is better than any Oiler D, then the are lots of questions.

    Do Demers and Burns rate above Fayne and Marincin? (assuming Petry is best, Fayne or Marincin may be) Demers is good, but not great and Burns hasn’t played D full time since he was in MIN in 10/11 so you can’t bank on him being very good.

    Past those 4 I don’t like much. Mueller will be good, but he’s a rook. Irwin and Hannan are meh.

    I think Oilers are deeper.

    Smyth and Purcell were 7th in qual comp on their respective teams and Pouliot was 10th.
    If you take a look at Pouliot’s most commonly faced opponents the top of the list reads Nathan Gerbe. Don’t tell me that P&P faced noticeably tougher competition because I really don’t see it.
    Smyth’s zone starts were far more severe as well. Taking those into account it certainly appears pretty close to me.

    Way to mention Gerbe because he appears at the top.

    Matthieu Perrault, who played 3C for ANA appears at 94′s top and Smytty put up a solid 37.5 against him. Awesome.

    Here’s all 20 of the players Smytty put up 50%+ against last year:

    Player CF%
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI 83.3
    WINGELS, TOMMY 74.1
    COLBORNE, JOE 73.3
    HUBERDEAU, JONATHAN 70.6
    MONAHAN, SEAN 68.2
    BJUGSTAD, NICK 68.2
    PENNER, DUSTIN 62.5
    FLEISCHMANN, TOMAS 60.9
    BOUMA, LANCE 60
    TALBOT, MAXIME 59.1
    WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 58.8
    MITCHELL, JOHN 57.1
    HANSEN, JANNIK 55.6
    MCGINN, JAMIE 54.3
    BOURQUE, GABRIEL 54.3
    HALPERN, JEFF 52.6
    CAMMALLERI, MIKE 52.4
    BACKES, DAVID 50
    SHEPPARD, JAMES 50

    Murderers row for sure eh?

    What do you mean “back” in the 28-29 range.? They haven’t been there since 2007. Why would you expect them to do something that they have never shown the ability to do.
    Hope maybe.

    First 20 games or so last season they were 28 SA/gm.

    Eakins panicked due to awful goaltending and open looks from the slot and destroyed anything good.

    Well you are the one agreeing with RE:Expectations of the -3 Lowetide laid out and I am the one disagreeing, so I thought you would be willing to take some risk defending your position.
    I think they aren’t primed to move far up the standings when I say they haven’t improved much if any. Which means they could improve by +40 and still finish 24th or 25th in the league.
    Would you consider that a successful season? -27 and 25th overall? I sure wouldn’t. I would consider that marginal improvement.
    What’s the line that’s fair? -10, -15? Anything worse then that is a hopelessly shitty team with no chance at playoffs.
    BTW, I’m already putting my money where my mouth is by committing to selling off as many Feb,March, and April home games as I can. You should buy them all up if you think the Oilers will be in the playoff drive. You’ll make good money on resales.

    So you think getting 40+ goals better is reasonable and you also think that they haven’t improved.

    You really need to pick a spot because you’re straddling a pretty wide gulf.

    What’s the line that’s fair? -10, -15? Anything worse then that is a hopelessly shitty team with no chance at playoffs.

    So -15 is a 52 goal improvement and you think that line is fair for a team that hasn’t improved.

    Man.

  85. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Nikitin isnt pushing anyone down the lineup.He is a 3rd line d that will end up playing above his established level of play.He will get a lot of PP time which will make his point totals look respectable but Marincin has already passed him and Ference is fairly even

    Way to have no evidence of your opinion.

  86. alice13 says:

    I think most of us would be disappointed at 22, and at least a little bit encouraged at 20
    just makes the increments a little more meaningful than a swing of 2 dozen in goal diff.

    One you can see a playoff spot on a clear day, the other, well, you’re more apt to be gazing at poor Connor McDavid

  87. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Basically my issue is this.

    You said:

    “So many things played as positives this offseason don’t look much different then same old-same old to me.”

    And you think a reasonable line is a 52 goal improvement.

    Pick a spot.

    If its 40 goals better then you need to acknowledge that you think the Oilers will be better and not “same old-same old to me”

  88. G Money says:

    alice13: One you can see a playoff spot on a clear day, the other, well, your more apt to be gazing at poor Connor McDavid

    The good news is that in around #20, in the WC, you can see a playoff spot on a clear day AND still have at least see a vague outline of McDavid in the distance!

    It would be the ultimate nether region poke to the NHL if the Oilers had a legendary battle for a playoff spot, finished in 9th in the WC – and then won the McDavid lottery because of a rule put in place specifically to spite the Oilers.

  89. TheOtherJohn says:

    Not reallly sure the Oilers should have been a -67 last year

    10/11 Oilers were truly a horrible team and ended up -76 and improved to -27 in a single season- in 11/12. In the strike shortened 12/13 season they improved to -9 in 48 games which prorates to -15 We then fall off a very very long cliff and are -67 last year.

    Have we lost any key players from the 11/12 team at -27 or strike shortened 12/13 team? Lost an elite goaltender from those years? Don’t really think so. So realistically if our goal differential was -20- to -25 this year we would be on par with 11/12 and 12/13 teams with our young core being years closer to their prime.

    Unless everything possible that can go wrong does go wrong at the exact same tim like last year.

    Or we trying to tank for Kaiser Soezye thiis past year? I keep forgetting the narrative

  90. Lowetide says:

    I’m actually amazed people think the Oilers are going to be as bad this season as last. We all saw the improvements, no? These things DO have impact. Mark Fayne will improve the team. Ramsay too. Dubnyk’s disaster at the beginning of the year tore this team to shreds, but expecting that again is beyond reason.

    jmo.

  91. TheOtherJohn says:

    Do not think they can possibly be as bad as last year. Can they? F77k no. Nice adds in Fayne and Pouliot. And looking at the history of our goal differential : 10/11 to 13/14 just confirms that.We will not be that bad this year

    The issue is how much better and I think 20th place is not unduly pessimistic

  92. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    Bank Shot,

    Basically my issue is this.

    You said:

    “So many things played as positives this offseason don’t look much different then same old-same old to me.”

    And you think a reasonable line is a 52 goal improvement.

    Pick a spot.

    If its 40 goals better then you need to acknowledge that you think the Oilers will be better and not “same old-same old to me”

    40 goals better gets the Oilers to -27. I already watched that team in 2011/2012. It was like taking a big bite of a shit sandwich most nights. They were complete doormats and if that happens again this season for sure its same old-same old.

    If they improve only 40 goals that’s a failure on MacT. Every other team that has been on the bottom has also busted out in a big way except for the NYI, and the FLA of the world of course.

    If Mact’s impatience only gets the Oilers from 28th to 25th next season then perhaps we need a manager with less patience.

  93. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Oiler 11/12 Dmen via TOI/gm vs my guess for this year

    Jeff Petry - Fayne
    Ryan Whitney – Nikitin
    Nick Schultz – Petry
    Ladislav Smid – Marincin
    Tom Gilbert – Jultz
    Corey Potter – Ference
    Cam Barker – Klefbom
    Andy Sutton – Aulie
    Theo Peckham – Hunt

    That’s a pretty significant upgrade at each spot. Petry was a rook too with 35 NHL games the year before.

    Its so Oilers to have a rookie lead the Dcorps in 5v5 TOI/gm. I think those days are done.

    Top 13 forward via the same metric (min 20gp)

    Ales Hemsky – Hall
    Taylor Hall – Eberle
    Sam Gagner – RNH
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Arco
    Ryan Smyth – Perron
    Jordan Eberle – Purcell
    Shawn Horcoff – Gordon (I think he spells off DrySaddle in tough spots a lot……)
    Ryan Jones – Pouliot
    Magnus Paajarvi – Yakupov
    Eric Belanger – DrySaddle
    Anton Lander – Hendricks
    Lennart Petrell – Lander
    Ben Eager – Gazdic

    My god that’s awful.

    Jones, Belanger, Petrell, Eager all playing out on their last (some only) NHL team.

    Hall, Eberle in year 2, RNH is a rook.

    The entire bottom half of that roster is a waste of ice. Most of the good players are under 21.

    Only Hemsky in his prime.

    Poor Ales.

    Its not going to be 11/12

    Not even close

  94. jjerms12 says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m actually amazed people think the Oilers are going to be as bad this season as last. We all saw the improvements, no? These things DO have impact. Mark Fayne will improve the team. Ramsay too. Dubnyk’s disaster at the beginning of the year tore this team to shreds, but expecting that again is beyond reason.

    jmo.

    I don’t necessarily expect Scrivens to repeat Dubnyk’s disaster season, but I think there are a lot of similarities between Scrivens heading into this year and Dubnyk last year. It’s certainly possible that he could have a mediocre start.

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