SOMETHING IN THE AIR

When it comes to assessing pure offensive ability for prospects, it’s important to let all of the air out of their tires. We do that by Desjardins or Vollman NHLE, but we can also help ourselves by looking at even strength offense. There’s no way to pad the stats, even strength goals are the toughest thing on the ice surface to come by, even for the great ones. Here’s a look at even strength offense for top draftee forwards 2007-13.

  1. 2009-10 Taylor Hall 57, 22-33-55 (.965)
  2. 2011-12 Nail Yakupov 42, 18-22-40 (.952)
  3. 2013-14 Leon Draisaitl 64, 22-37-59 (.922)
  4. 2006-07 Sam Gagner 53, 14-33-47 (.887)
  5. 2010-11 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 69, 20-27-47 (.681)
  6. 2009-10 Ryan Martindale 61, 13-28-41 (.672)
  7. 2012-13 Marco Roy 65, 16-25-41 (.631)
  8. 2007-08 Jordan Eberle 70, 25-19-44 (.629)
  9. 2009-10 Curtis Hamilton 26, 7-8-15 (.577)
  10. 2012-13 Jackson Houck 69, 15-24-39 (.565)
  11. 2012-13 Greg Chase 69, 13-23-36 (.522)
  12. 2010-11 Tobias Rieder 65, 17-14-31 (.477)
  13. 2011-12 Daniil Zharkov 50, 14-8-22 (.440)
  14. 2012-13 Kyle Platzer 65, 4-17-21 (.323)
  15. 2010-11 Travis Ewanyk 72, 12-10-22 (.306)
  16. 2011-12 Mitchell Moroz 66, 11-8-19 (.288)

Draisaitl didn’t play on an insanely good team, and he didn’t score 60% of his points on the power play. I think it’s safe to assume that, barring injury, the Oilers drafted a terrific prospect. I think he has a lot in common with Nuge (tremendous passers) but I’m not prepared to say he’s going to be a better offensive player. It’s interesting to look at these EV numbers though, and it should be noted Leon has a slight NHLE edge (40-38) over RNH in their draft seasons.

ROY33Marco Roy looks pretty good on that list above, here’s hoping he can have a strong QMJHL season and turn pro next year with a contract and some traction. He’s played in three pre-season games so far this season, here are the boxcars and vitals (playing center!):

  • Boxcars: 2, 0-1-1 +3
  • 6 shots on goal
  • 20 for 40 in the dot (50%)

Here’s hoping. The Oilers could use another skill forward in the system, which is probably why they invited Tkachev. If Marco Roy can recover after an injury-plagued season (and he wasn’t horrible, just didn’t progress) the Oilers will have sufficient forward skill in the pipeline (Roy, Chase, Tkachev, Houck, Slepslappy).

soccer goal

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

The bases are drunk with guests at 10 this morning, TSN 1260. We begin with Scott Burnside to talk about Kevin Hayes signing in Manhattan, the Jeff Hauser from Radio Hauser hits the air to talk about Weston Dressler and other NFL cuts. Travis Yost will be by to talk about the wonky deal Ottawa just signed with Craig Anderson, ensuring that Robin Lehner is pissed right directly off.

In hour two, Dennis King flattens Edmonton with his brand of robust humor, and then we talk CFL with Andrew Bucholtz of 55-yard line. I’ll invite Dave Jamieson to join me at 11:40, and we’ll chat about CFL and his 12th week of holidays this year (just completed).

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ and you can call 780.444.1260 if you wish! See you on the radio!

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31 Responses to "SOMETHING IN THE AIR"

  1. slopitch says:

    Out of curiosity, what is Tkachev’s number?

    I still think the right move is to give LD another year of junior. I keep going back to how good the Oilers would look next year if they can take a step forward and have Nurse and LD ready to join the mix next year.

    I’ve said this for a while, but a C I’d like to target that I think would be cheap is Drew Shore. Litter Box Cats published this article yesterday about him yesterday. The line I like the best is for everyone Shore played at least 100 minutes with, their Corsi For % was at least 2.4% better with him than without him, and if we take Filip Kuba (who was just awful, really) off of that list, the number spikes to 7.0%. His corsi numbers are quite elite and when you look at them there most be more as he compares to some of the best but his offense isn’t quite there. He’d be the polar opposite of Gagner. I could see him as Stoll 2.0 and I think he could be had for one of our D prospects (less then Klefbom or Nurse).

  2. russ99 says:

    Wow, that’s a sick soccer play!

    Did you see Demba Ba almost score from the half line last week?

    http://www.caughtoffside.com/2014/08/19/video-demba-ba-hits-almost-scores-from-half-way-following-kick-off-between-besiktas-and-arsenal/

  3. Lowetide says:

    Tkachev NHLE using Dejsardins: 82GP, 11-23-34

  4. slopitch says:

    I’m likely overselling Shore comparing him to Stoll and hes not great at faceoffs. But it seems we have an excess of D prospects and a shortage of C and that moving a d prospect for a C (even if its a depth move) is something they should be looking at. Having Lander, Arco and Shore compete for 2 jobs would be much better but I guess I just consider LD best suited as a non NHL candidate this year and that doesnt appear to be the case.

  5. schmed says:

    Lowetide, just curious where you are looking up the chl stats like Marco roys face off percentage?

  6. Lowetide says:

    schmed:
    Lowetide, just curious where you are looking up the chl stats like Marco roys face off percentage?

    QMJHL site has terrific info.

  7. Hammers says:

    When I look at those numbers my question is why do so many keep saying send him back ( p.s. his not going back to junior & according to his contract it’s Germany .) RNH made the jump as have other centers and this guy is built like a man already . If I gotta make a guess he gets 50 + points with Yak & Pouliot or Perron . I would sooner go into this season on a positive note than to keep saying we need another “C” .

  8. sean w says:

    So why the lack of minor league success by Martindale? While recognizing NHLe isn’t prefect, I would have expected better pro numbers based on its prediction. Did he play on a powerhouse CHL team? Play a crazy number of minutes? Injuries? Just curious.

  9. Braden88 says:

    so is Roy just going to turn into another Junior C that we dont trust to play C, so he inevitably can just be called a winger?

  10. Braden88 says:

    sean w,

    i think he was a fantastic player. But some guys go Pro and just cant keep up with the pace and level of compete. From what i saw of him, he looked great in the prospect camps but in AHL games he couldn’t find enough time and space to make anything happen

  11. RexLibris says:

    Dave Jamieson…we’ll chat about CFL and his 12th week of holidays this year (just completed).

    MacTavish will be relieved. I hear he’s got a deal to announce but had to wait for Jamieson to get back on the air.

  12. Ducey says:

    sean w: So why the lack of minor league success by Martindale? While recognizing NHLe isn’t prefect, I would have expected better pro numbers based on its prediction. Did he play on a powerhouse CHL team? Play a crazy number of minutes? Injuries? Just curious.

    He played on a very good line with Toffoli and Shane Prince. Toffoli was driving the bus (as it turns out)

    The knock on Martindale was always effort and character. This is why a big guy with good numbers fell to the 3rd round. I think the Oilers took a flyer figuring if he had talent and size maybe he would grow up.

  13. RexLibris says:

    Ducey: He played on a very good line with Toffoli and Shane Prince.Toffoli was driving the bus (as it turns out)

    The knock on Martindale was always effort and character.This is why a big guy with good numbers fell to the 3rd round.I think the Oilers took a flyer figuring if he had talent and size maybe he would grow up.

    Compare the Martindale selection with other 3rd round picks by the same scouting staff (Ewanyk, Abney) and I don’t think we can really be too critical of the choice.

    Big center with skill, if he doesn’t work out at least you tried.

  14. Lois Lowe says:

    Gregor is saying the Louie Debrusk won’t be back as the colour man this year for Sportsnet and that it’s likely going to be Drew Remenda. I recall not liking the latter’s work with CBC and have grown to appreciate the former. He’s no Ray Ferraro but very serviceable as far as colour guys go.

  15. LostBoy says:

    OT from Gregor (http://oilersnation.com/2014/8/25/random-refreshed-thoughts)

    “Louis Debrusk won’t return as colourman on Sportsnet Oilers games this year. I’m hearing former Sharks and NNIC analyst Drew Remenda is front runner to replace Debrusk.”

    Debrusk came across as a good guy; I thought his main failing was that he really hated to call people out by name when critiquing the play, which made it difficult to be really insightful when describing the recent play of the Oilers. Drew Remenda…aw man. Not a fan. His colour commentary for the Sharks was more shouting than commentary.

  16. gogliano says:

    Drew Remenda is insufferable. I will literally have to turn off the sound if this happens.

  17. HiddenDarts says:

    I watched the Kings-Sharks NBC feed last playoffs, and Remenda was just plain awful. Total homer, brutal mis-seeing of the play and did I mention he was absolutely awful? God I hope this isn’t true. If the Oilers wanted to make their hockey more unwatchable after the most unwatchable season they’ve ever played, they have succeeded.

    This could get ugly.

  18. Jon K says:

    I can’t help but feel that the picture and caption regarding Steve Kelly is inviting bad karma. *shudder*

    I still remember the “speed, speed, speed” rationalization of the announcers when Kelly was selected. Hopefully the PA record is the only similarity between Kelly and Neon Leon. (“Size, size, size…”)

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Draisaitl didn’t play on an insanely good team, and he didn’t score 60% of his points on the power play. I think it’s safe to assume that, barring injury, the Oilers drafted a terrific prospect. I think he has a lot in common with Nuge (tremendous passers) but I’m not prepared to say he’s going to be a better offensive player. It’s interesting to look at these EV numbers though, and it should be noted Leon has a slight NHLE edge (40-38) over RNH in their draft seasons.”

    I’m not sure this paragraph makes much sense.

    You start by noting the importance of 5×5 scoring. Then suggest LD might not surpass RNH. Then circle back to 5×5.

    I think the jr numbers matched side-by-side suggest we should reasonably expect more from LD at evens. I’d separate that idea out from whether he outscores RNH down the road at all disciplines.
    —————-
    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/08/possession-zone-starts-and-icings/

    new post

  20. John Chambers says:

    slopitch,

    I casually enjoy theorizing about trade scenarios, and enjoy it better when the logic applied is sound and well supported.

    Thanks for sharing the Litter Box read on Shore. Definitely the kind of acquisition we’ve been yearning for over the past 8 weeks.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “Draisaitl didn’t play on an insanely good team, and he didn’t score 60% of his points on the power play. I think it’s safe to assume that, barring injury, the Oilers drafted a terrific prospect. I think he has a lot in common with Nuge (tremendous passers) but I’m not prepared to say he’s going to be a better offensive player. It’s interesting to look at these EV numbers though, and it should be noted Leon has a slight NHLE edge (40-38) over RNH in their draft seasons.”

    I’m not sure this paragraph makes much sense.

    You start by noting the importance of 5×5 scoring. Then suggest LD might not surpass RNH. Then circle back to 5×5.

    I think the jr numbers matched side-by-side suggest we should reasonably expect more from LD at evens. I’d separate that idea out from whether he outscores RNH down the road at all disciplines.
    —————-
    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/08/possession-zone-starts-and-icings/

    new post

    ” I think he has a lot in common with Nuge (tremendous passers) but I’m not prepared to say he’s going to be a better offensive player. ”

    I don’t think you can assume anyone will have the offensive impact RNH has on the power play, especially that first season. There’s also the matter of TOI, Nuge’s was (at the time) less than the average No. 1 overall possible.

  22. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “Draisaitl didn’t play on an insanely good team, and he didn’t score 60% of his points on the power play. I think it’s safe to assume that, barring injury, the Oilers drafted a terrific prospect. I think he has a lot in common with Nuge (tremendous passers) but I’m not prepared to say he’s going to be a better offensive player. It’s interesting to look at these EV numbers though, and it should be noted Leon has a slight NHLE edge (40-38) over RNH in their draft seasons.”

    I’m not sure this paragraph makes much sense.

    You start by noting the importance of 5×5 scoring. Then suggest LD might not surpass RNH. Then circle back to 5×5.

    I think the jr numbers matched side-by-side suggest we should reasonably expect more from LD at evens. I’d separate that idea out from whether he outscores RNH down the road at all disciplines.
    —————-
    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/08/possession-zone-starts-and-icings/

    new post

    Interesting.

    Comparisons between Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl are going to have to be tempered with their relative circumstances.

    If Draisaitl comes in and scores the same as Nugent-Hopkins in his rookie year then we’ll need to adjust for the both the defense and forwards being better by a country mile.

    This isn’t to suggest that you wouldn’t be aware of this yourself, but it may creep into the dialogue surrounding the team as the year progresses.

  23. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    A good article, Rom.

    In the final conclusion I must admit that I began to imagine the blogging crowd debating the statistical equivalent of a Higgs/Boson element in hockey analytics.

    As I noted before, I’m beginning to think of icings as a symptom of some possession numbers and when trying to tie together seemingly contradictory data points such as the Sharks’ great possession numbers despite poor ZSs that icings may be an oft-overlooked, seemingly benign element that reconciles the two.

    If the stats crowd started talking up icings as a significant statistical indicator perhaps the old-guard wouldn’t be so dismissive.

  24. Ca$h-Money! says:

    RexLibris,

    I’m not sure whether it’s a benefit or curse for Draisaitl that the team around him is better than what Nuge had to work with as a rookie. On the one hand he should have better linemates and be more sheltered (theoretically). On the other hand I imagine he’ll be getting less icetime and certainly a lot less time on the PP.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: ” I think he has a lot in common with Nuge (tremendous passers) but I’m not prepared to say he’s going to be a better offensive player. ”

    I don’t think you can assume anyone will have the offensive impact RNH has on the power play, especially that first season. There’s also the matter of TOI, Nuge’s was (at the time) less than the average No. 1 overall possible.

    Yea. I should have been clearer (see how this loops back on itself, haha). I wasn’t challenging the content here. I agree with everything you said.

    I just think you might have separated out the thoughts (importance of 5×5; and RNH particular 5×4 wizardry; plus the fact that your never really know with a guy like LD who hasn’t played in the NHL yet) a little more clearly.

    But, again. I didn’t really make myself clear… so, no worries!

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    A good article, Rom.

    In the final conclusion I must admit that I began to imagine the blogging crowd debating the statistical equivalent of a Higgs/Boson element in hockey analytics.

    As I noted before, I’m beginning to think of icings as a symptom of some possession numbers and when trying to tie together seemingly contradictory data points such as the Sharks’ great possession numbers despite poor ZSs that icings may be an oft-overlooked, seemingly benign element that reconciles the two.

    If the stats crowd started talking up icings as a significant statistical indicator perhaps the old-guard wouldn’t be so dismissive.

    I really don’t know what to make of the info. It sure looks like the icing numbers pull the zone start numbers in one direction or another. And, that makes intuitive sense.

    The real question would be, are these outlier teams actually doing something weird that leads to this happening? And, in the case of SJS, for example, does it matter considering they have such awesome possession numbers anyhow?

  27. Ducey says:

    Here is a link talking about changes to the ECHL and AHL. He says the Barons will move from OKC to Bakersfield in 2 years. Bunch of other teams will follow suit resulting in AHL teams becoming closer to their parent teams

    http://www.howlings.net/2014/08/21/cantlons-corner-how-the-west-was-built/

  28. Marc says:

    Ducey,

    Interesting. I had thought that the Oilers bought an ECHL franchise as an additional place to sign prospects that wouldn’t count towards the 50 contract limit, but it appears that they actually just bought a market closer to home to relocate their AHL team to.

  29. RexLibris says:

    The second installment of my RE series on the Flames, this time forwards.

    http://flamesnation.ca/2014/8/25/black-holes-and-revelations

  30. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Those are the questions that the Corgi whisperer was asking.

    How does Beaudreau get a 60% cf after losing a neutral zone face off?

    What sport do the New Jersey Devil’s play?

    Why are the Oilers winning more ozone draws but getting fewer shots on net?

    He seemed to have an interest in set plays that Mclellan used with the sharks.

    How much of the Corgi’s are well-executed coaching strategies vs having the right personel?

  31. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    I keep thinking back to a Corsi Kings article by Eric T–iiirc. He attempted to break down the source of the kings’ Corsi advantage….

    The one thing he missed were the 100 shots the Kings gained in 4 games against the Oilers.

    This is why the new team stat drum that I am banging on is a Corsi, fenwick, Corsi close, fen close, that are filtered against teams that made the playoffs the year prior.

    Wouldn’t that be interesting?

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