THE SEVENTH ROUND

By the seventh round, we’re looking at about an 8% chance of seeing an NHL player. You are basically pissing in the wind, and would have to pile more than 12.5 picks one on top of another to ensure one player arrives on your doorstep. This speaks to the luck involved for any pick outside the top 100 in each draft year.

A PROPOSAL

Scott Cullen of TSN estimated the success rate (100 NHL games or more) to be 8% back in 2009. Let’s also use 150 games as the line in the sand, as we’ve done through each round.

OILERS SEVENTH ROUND 2008-2014

That set, let’s move on to the Oilers during the MacGregor era (2008-2014). The Oilers have selected six players in Round 7 during the MacGregor era, including one last month:

  • 2008: Jordan Bendfeld
  • 2010:  Kristians Pelss
  • 2010:  Kellen Jones
  • 2011:  Frans Tuohimaa
  • 2013:  Greg Chase
  • 2014:  Keven Bouchard

Six players taken in the seventh round during the MBS era, so we’re really taking shots in the dark here. The odds of getting a player is 8% in this round.

2014 SUMMER

  • No longer a prospect: Jordan Bendfeld
  • Very bad arrows:
  • Bad arrows: Kellen Jones
  • Lukewarm arrows: Frans Tuohimaa
  • Good arrows:
  • Very good arrows: Greg Chase
  • New arrows: Keven Bouchard

Six drafted players, five to discuss. Bendfeld was out of organized hockey by 2011 spring. Jones had a solid college career—his final season featured 42 points in 40 games—but the Oilers didn’t sign him to an NHL deal. Tuohimaa holds some promise, I’m just not sure that any of these goalie prospects are going to be here in a year. Keven Bouchard may be something, may be nothing.

And then there’s Greg Chase. I ranked him as a second-round talent in 2013 before the draft, and I think that’s what we have here. Greg Chase was selected in the seventh round, but was invited to the Team Canada WJ camp—that in and of itself is incredible. So, the seventh round may deliver a player in Greg Chase, but it’s an anomaly that he was taken in that round.

He doesn’t belong here, never did.

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30 Responses to "THE SEVENTH ROUND"

  1. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I like this list. Greg Chase sure looks like a player. Kristian Pelss was really starting to show something, damn shame there.

    What I like most is the two goalies, not in the sense that they look good or bad, but that they are there. I’m in the “draft on average 1 goalie per year” camp and I like marrying the randomness of goalie selection with the throwing-darts-at-a-board-blindfolded that is the reality of most 7th round selections. It just makes sense.

  2. Lowetide says:

    $: I agree, but would love to see one of these goalies develop. Maybe it’s Keven.

  3. raventalon40 says:

    I can’t wait. I think Greg Chase might be the next jersey I buy, if he makes the team. I love agitators.

    ——————————–

    In other news, I hear Hayes wants to sign in his hometown Boston.

    The Oilers could trade Justin Schultz and Matt Hendricks to Boston for Daniel Paille, Johnny Boychuk, Marc Savard and a 1st round pick. Add or subtract magic beans to balance.

    Boston could use the cap space and the Oilers could buy out Savard at the next window of opportunity.

  4. v4ance says:

    raventalon40,

    Can’t buy out Savard. He’s on LTIR til the end of his contract with concussion issues.

    Worst case scenario if we made that trade would be if he actually tried to suit up as a 37+ yr old having not played for 4 years coming off the concussion.

    Stay far far away from that contract. It’s just a CBA loophole to allow the Bruins to maneuver over the cap.

  5. Yeti says:

    Evidently there is a hell of a lot of luck to drafting a successful player in the 7th round. However, the Jordan Bendfeld pick wasn’t ‘pissing in the wind’. It was pissing directly down your trouser leg and out over your own shoes. A criminally bad pick, even at this late stage in the draft.

  6. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Rom, just looked that over and will dig in later.

    Stellar work! LT should put a link on this site.

  7. VanOil says:

    Rom, Great article I will use it a resource/reminder thanks.

    This Yak video on the Oilers site http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=629488&catid=4
    fills me with joy. I love this kid, he talks about his figure skating lessons. I wonder which Oilers are still taking them.

  8. thejonrmcleod says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I tried to comment on your post, but I got an error. Anyway. Well done. You put a lot of work into that post.

  9. VanOil says:

    Dustin Penner is spending his off season being the executive producer of “The Dewy Show”. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7pyMeq_-zLo2EExawhZ_7g
    I wonder if he will end up with Gagner in Arizona or Hemsky in Dallas.

  10. D says:

    VanOil:
    Rom, Great article I will use it a resource/reminder thanks.

    This Yak video on the Oilers site http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=629488&catid=4
    fills me with joy. I love this kid, he talks about his figure skating lessons. I wonder which Oilers are still taking them.

    Thanks for posting this. Yak is my favourite player on the Oilers by a country mile. Really liked his demeanor in this video.

  11. elgruntus says:

    Is Chase signed?
    If not, what are the chances that he re enters the draft with a shot at going much, much higher and getting a better deal? Should the Oilers give him a deal typical of a second rounder (or better) to avoid this situation?

  12. Lowetide says:

    elgruntus:
    Is Chase signed?
    If not, what are the chances that he re enters the draft with a shot at going much, much higher and getting a better deal? Should the Oilers give him a deal typical of a second rounder (or better) to avoid this situation?

    He is not signed, and I suspect Edmonton will have to give him a dandy contract.

  13. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    Rom, Great article I will use it a resource/reminder thanks.

    This Yak video on the Oilers site http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=629488&catid=4
    fills me with joy. I love this kid, he talks about his figure skating lessons. I wonder which Oilers are still taking them.

    Yak is such a huge personality.

    Its great to see it start to come out as he gets more comfortable with the language.

    If he and RNH break out, this season might be really fun to watch.

  14. Henry says:

    Woodguy,

    I was thinking the same thing. A healthy Nuge and a confident Yak are the keys to the season.

  15. RexLibris says:

    raventalon40:
    I can’t wait. I think Greg Chase might be the next jersey I buy, if he makes the team. I love agitators.

    ——————————–

    In other news, I hear Hayes wants to sign in his hometown Boston.

    The Oilers could trade Justin Schultz and Matt Hendricks to Boston for Daniel Paille, Johnny Boychuk, Marc Savard and a 1st round pick. Add or subtract magic beans to balance.

    Boston could use the cap space and the Oilers could buy out Savard at the next window of opportunity.

    If Boston needs cap space to sign Hayes, I’d bet Burke, er, I mean Treliving offers to take on the Savard contract for something useful, even if it is only Jared Knight (wouldn’t that be a funny turn of events – Savard going back to Calgary and Burke getting the prospect chosen with one of the Kessel picks).

    The Flames have tonnes (yes, it is metric) of cap space and the lack of divisional considerations could come into play. The OIlers, on the other hand, I’m not sure MacTavish wants to take on Savard’s cap hit for three more seasons. The buy-out, if it ever became an option, would be pretty easy given the drop off in the final years.

  16. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Some kind of guide to the various stats websites:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/08/a-novices-guide-to-nhl-stats/

    I’m not ashamed to say it. I wept a little.

    Since ES went dark I’ve been a little worried about where I’d find resources, and then this comes along.

    Danke Schoen.

    On a related note, I’m just finishing up something on the Dellow hire as it relates to journalistic issues in the modern sporting world, and some corporate dilemmas in general. Hoping it will run soon, and I thought you may be interested. Your opening lines about democratization of information in the wake of technological re-purposing echoes some of the sentiments discussed.

  17. VanOil says:

    Henry:
    Woodguy,

    I was thinking the same thing.A healthy Nuge and a confident Yak are the keys to the season.

    Keys to the season, yes. More importantly to me they are fabulous, talented, exciting hockey players to watch. These two very young men have the ability to entertain us for the next decade, lets hope it happens.

  18. RexLibris says:

    VanOil: Keys to the season, yes. More importantly to me they are fabulous, talented, exciting hockey players to watch. These two very young men have the ability to entertain us for the next decade, lets hope it happens.

    Yeah, I was thinking the Oilers roster is such right now that the keys to the season for this team most closely resemble those hanging from a janitor’s belt loop. Lose any one of Fayne, Petry, RNH, Hall, or Gordon and things could get ugly fast. Virtually the only place they have any kind of redundancy is in net with both Scrivens and Fasth.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Thanks all for reading!

    ———–
    “Jones had a solid college career—his final season featured 42 points in 40 games—but the Oilers didn’t sign him to an NHL deal. ”

    I mean this is true… but I think for the round and typical rate of return, it is actually more informative (if more optimistic) to note that they bothered to give him an AHL contract than to note that they didn’t give him an NHL contract.

    Also… I think part of the Joneses’ situation is attributable to the mandate to take on a deeper pool of prospects. Having stable ECHL situation and adding a lot of non-NHL pro contract this off-season has been one of the more interesting things to track with the Oilers.

    There’s a story there, whether Jones plays an NHL game or not.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris: On a related note, I’m just finishing up something on the Dellow hire as it relates to journalistic issues in the modern sporting world, and some corporate dilemmas in general. Hoping it will run soon, and I thought you may be interested. Your opening lines about democratization of information in the wake of technological re-purposing echoes some of the sentiments discussed.

    Oh yes. Always pitch your writing to me and everyone else. Happy to read smart folks anytime.

    thejonrmcleod:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I tried to comment on your post, but I got an error. Anyway. Well done. You put a lot of work into that post.

    Thanks and sorry… the comments system is basically a mess over there. They’ve been working on it. At any rate, thanks for the feedback and of course for reading!

  21. Melman says:

    VanOil,

    Yak looks much thicker than he did last year. I’d love to see this kid break out and find his game. His enthusiasm is infectious!

  22. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: He is not signed, and I suspect Edmonton will have to give him a dandy contract.

    The good news is that with his Jan 1 birthday they can sign him anytime & still slide his contract. Whereas with his fellow 2013 draftees M-O Roy & Ben Betker, if they sign them soon & send them back to junior as overagers, those contracts can’t slide. Hopefully they are negotiating with Chase RFN.

  23. Bruce McCurdy says:

    VanOil: I love this kid, he talks about his figure skating lessons. I wonder which Oilers are still taking them.

    He spoke about “that figure skater David”, surely meaning David Pelletier. Not a bad resource to have kicking around town. Pelletier is a hockey player as well, Div 3 I believe but no doubt he is the best skater in the loop. More to the point he would have some clue as to transferable skills that might make him a more useful instructor for a hockey player than, say, Toller Cranston. :)

    I hope the whole damn team is taking lessons from Pelletier.

    An interesting player to watch with a figure skating background is Jeff Skinner of Carolina. It’s really obvious once you look for it.

  24. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    The way RNH uses his edges makes you wonder how much figure skating training he had.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    The way RNH uses his edges makes you wonder how much figure skating training he had.

    Maybe that year he couldn’t afford hockey he did some figure skating (though, I assume it is also cost prohibitive?)

  26. oilgreg says:

    Bruce McCurdy: He spoke about “that figure skater David”, surely meaning David Pelletier. Not a bad resource to have kicking around town. Pelletier is a hockey player as well, Div 3 I believe but no doubt he is the best skater in the loop. More to the point he would have some clue as to transferable skills that might make him a more useful instructor for a hockey player than, say, Toller Cranston.

    I hope the whole damn team is taking lessons from Pelletier.

    An interesting player to watch with a figure skating background is Jeff Skinner of Carolina. It’s really obvious once you look for it.

    Don’t get me wrong, I love your articles, and your writing is well-researched. I do believe that your comment Re: Toller Cranston discredits Andrew Ference, Brian Burke, and others, who have worked hard to ensure that their league is tolerant and accepting,

  27. Lowetide says:

    oilgreg: Don’t get me wrong, I love your articles, and your writing is well-researched. I do believe that your comment Re: Toller Cranston discredits Andrew Ference, Brian Burke, and others, who have worked hard to ensure that their league is tolerant and accepting,

    there are reasons to suggest Toller Cranston isn’t a suitable instructor beyond his being gay. Suspect Bruce may have been referencing personality type and lack of tolerance from Cranston, who suffers nothing without making it a big damn deal iirc.

    I don’t speak for Bruce, jmo.

  28. B S says:

    Lowetide: there are reasons to suggest Toller Cranston isn’t a suitable instructor beyond his being gay. Suspect Bruce may have been referencing personality type and lack of tolerance from Cranston, who suffers nothing without making it a big damn deal iirc.

    I don’t speak for Bruce, jmo.

    I got a similar impression from Bruce’s comment as well. I think he was pointing more to Pelletier’s shared experience (hockey and figure skating) allowing him to integrate and refine figure skating techniques that are actually relevant, while someone with only figure skating experience (for example Toller Cranston) may train maneuvers and technique that may be superfluous to hockey game situations.

  29. Bruce McCurdy says:

    oilgreg: Don’t get me wrong, I love your articles, and your writing is well-researched. I do believe that your comment Re: Toller Cranston discredits Andrew Ference, Brian Burke, and others, who have worked hard to ensure that their league is tolerant and accepting,

    You completely misunderstand my point, which has nothing to do with tolerance and everything to do with transferable skills. As a figure skater Cranston’s forté was/is on the artistic side, which doesn’t have a lot to do with hockey. But I am thinking more of technical matters and specifically their application to another sport.

    I personally was a big fan of Toller Cranston’s skating and I couldn’t give a hoot about his private life other than it is clearly a part of who he is. But nobody including the man himself will confuse the guy with a hockey player.

    I am also 100% onside with Andrew Ference, Jenny Scrivens, the Burke family and anybody else who promotes tolerance and acceptance of “alternate lifestyles” or whatever term you prefer, in fact I am outspoken on the subject. That is a hill I *would* choose to die on, if it came to that. So I’m a little appalled that someone might interpret my words (& emoticons) in the manner that you seem to have.

    B S: I got a similar impression from Bruce’s comment as well. I think he was pointing more to Pelletier’s shared experience (hockey and figure skating) allowing him to integrate and refine figure skating techniques that are actually relevant, while someone with only figure skating experience (for example Toller Cranston) may train maneuvers and technique that may be superfluous to hockey game situations.

    Yes, this.

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