By the sixth round, we’re looking at about a 14% chance of seeing an NHL player. You’d have to pile more than 7 picks one on top of another to ensure one player arrives on your doorstep, so there’s a slightly better chance of finding a player here than the fifth round (historically). This speaks to the luck involved for any pick outside the top 100 in each draft year.
In the comments section of the round five post, several worthy posts pointed out the ‘dice have no memory’ and that you can’t pile players on top of each other and assign blame once your chances reach 100%. Totally agree. Now, let’s have a look at the sixth round.
Scott Cullen of TSN estimated the success rate (100 NHL games or more) to be 12% back in 2009. Let’s also use 150 games as the line in the sand, as we’ve done through each round.
OILERS SIXTH ROUND 2008-2014
That set, let’s move on to the Oilers during the MacGregor era (2008-2013). We’re looking at one in seven being a success (average) and anything more than that above average. The Oilers have selected six players in Round 6 during the MacGregor era, including one last month:
- 2008: Teemu Hartikainen
- 2010: Brandon Davidson
- 2010: Drew Czerwonka
- 2012: John McCarron
- 2013: Ben Betker
- 2014: Tyler Vesel
Six players have been taken in the sixth round during the MacGregor era, and at 12% we’re looking at most of one NHLer of 150 games (with the understanding that we aren’t really, because the dice have no memory, etc).
NHL GAMES PLAYED
- Teemu Hartikainen 52
Hartikainen doesn’t count as a ‘successful’ pick, but any fool can tell you 50 games from a sixth round pick is a nice return. Harski has not (as yet) played 150 games, but he may get another opportunity Toronto or another NHL team. I don’t think there’s any evidence Hartikainen can’t play in the NHL.
- No longer a prospect: Drew Czerwonka
- Very bad arrows:
- Bad arrows:
- Lukewarm arrows: Teemu Hartikainen, John McCarron, Ben Betker
- Good arrows: Brandon Davidson
- Very good arrows:
- New arrows: Tyler Vesel
The sixth round picks under MacGregor have done pretty well as prospects. Czerwonka never did turn pro because of an injury, but the other men are alive and well as future NHL options. Now, a little reality about all of this: it’s not terribly likely any of the names on this list play more than Hartikainen already has, and it’s possible Hartikainen never plays in the NHL again. That said, there are four guys plus the new pick who are matriculating.
- Teemu Hartikainen: KHL for another season, then we’ll see. He may get another chance.
- Brandon Davidson: Played well in the second half may get him a look in 2014-15.
- Drew Czerwonka: Career ended with junior and some CIS.
- John McCarron: A big winger with some skill, that has to be of interest to Edmonton.
- Ben Betker: Big, physical defender who has good mobility. A Matt Greene-type.
- Tyler Vesel: A scorer from the emerging USHL, off to NCAA and we’ll know more a year from now.
Barons photos by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved.